vs
-140 +143
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 7"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 72"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Tim Elliott
3.37 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.65 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
3.71 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Sumudaerji
4.43 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.35 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.67 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Tim Elliott
Moneyline
BetMGM -140
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
BetWay +275
Decision
DraftKings +250
Sumudaerji
Moneyline
Caesars +143
KO/TKO
DraftKings +225
Submission
BetMGM +2500
Decision
DraftKings +650
Tim Elliott - Fight History
LOSS vs Steve Erceg
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Elliott 0 90 of 261 34% 93 of 265 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:34
Steve Erceg 0 136 of 254 53% 136 of 254 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Elliott 0 39 of 91 42% 40 of 93 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:18
Steve Erceg 0 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tim Elliott 0 27 of 78 34% 28 of 79 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:16
Steve Erceg 0 47 of 85 55% 47 of 85 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
3 Tim Elliott 0 24 of 92 26% 25 of 93 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Steve Erceg 0 65 of 114 57% 65 of 114 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Elliott 90 of 261 34% 44 of 191 11 of 27 35 of 43 87 of 255 3 of 6 0 of 0
Steve Erceg 136 of 254 53% 122 of 236 14 of 18 0 of 0 129 of 245 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Elliott 39 of 91 42% 20 of 57 5 of 15 14 of 19 39 of 89 0 of 2 0 of 0
Steve Erceg 24 of 55 43% 21 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Tim Elliott 27 of 78 34% 10 of 56 4 of 8 13 of 14 24 of 75 3 of 3 0 of 0
Steve Erceg 47 of 85 55% 44 of 82 3 of 3 0 of 0 44 of 81 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Tim Elliott 24 of 92 26% 14 of 78 2 of 4 8 of 10 24 of 91 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steve Erceg 65 of 114 57% 57 of 102 8 of 12 0 of 0 64 of 112 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg

Round 1
Elliott (21-13; 10-11 UFC), one of the flyweight division’s top spoilers over the last several years, looks to take that role once again in this featured clash with Perth’s own, “Astro Boy” Erceg (13-4; 4-3 UFC). Lukasz Bosacki is the referee on duty. Both men are in orthodox stance and Elliott immediately starts with his oddball striking attack, switching stances, hanging his hands at his waist and stabbing out with Jon Jones-style oblique kicks at Erceg’s lead leg. The contrast could not be much greater, as Erceg comes forward in his classic, composed upright stance. Through the first 90 seconds, the resulting collisions are sporadic and awkward; Erceg slides forward but refuses to be drawn into a wild firefight, while Elliott lands sporadic strikes but can’t string anything together. A little past the halfway mark, Erceg lands a clean one-two that represents the best offense by either man thus far. Erceg appears to be growing more and more comfortable, but Elliott catches him with a sweeping right hand that hurts him. Again, Elliott can’t follow up, and Erceg recovers. Erceg places a couple of stiff jabs on Elliott’s chin, and takes a glancing hook in return. Elliott changes levels and gets a fast takedown against the fence, but Erceg gets right back up. They separate, meet in the center of the cage and Elliott gets another takedown right after the 10-second clapper. The horn sounds. 10-9 Elliott.

Round 2
Elliott is switching stances constantly as they meet in the middle of the cage for Round 2. Erceg again pursues in disciplined fashion, sliding forward and cutting off the cage while Elliott springs in and out of range, spins and throws off-balance single strikes. Elliott is talking, but a minute in, it’s Erceg landing the cleaner, sharper punches. Elliott’s kicks are effective, landing to Erceg’s lead left leg from both sides, mixing in some body work. Elliott changes levels and grounds the Australian with a double-leg, but Erceg pops back to his feet instantly. They disengage and meet against in the center of the Octagon, and it’s Erceg launching a takedown attempt, which Elliott defends. Erceg gets the better of a couple of pocket exchanges, then gets a clean takedown in the middle of the cage. Elliott escapes to his feet and scores a takedown of his own. Erceg escapes to his feet with a minute left and tags Elliott with two unblocked punches. Elliott is hurt but far from out of it, marching forward and swinging big. Erceg gives ground, plants and returns fire with more accurate punches to the head. It’s still competitive, but the momentum has definitely swung the other way as the horn sounds. 10-9 Erceg.

Round 3
Erceg walks down Elliott, who comes up just short with a superman punch. Erceg’s jab continues to define the fight, as he can’t seem to miss with it. The jab is scoring for Erceg, answering everything Elliott throws at him and preventing the American from building any kind of momentum. Elliott hacks away at Erceg’s left leg with two hard low kicks. Erceg suddenly launches a big high kick that glances off of Elliott’s guard, then goes right back to work with his bread-and-butter jab and right cross. Elliott is still in Erceg’s face at the midpoint of the round, coming forward with big swinging punches, and Erceg is calmly sniping him on the counter every single time. Elliott drops levels and runs Erceg all the way across the cage with a double-leg, depositing him on his butt at the base of the fence. Erceg gets right back up and Elliott disengages rather than keep wrestling. When they meet again it’s more of the same: Erceg slipping big telegraphed attacks from Elliott and returning fire with ultra-clean punches. The horn sounds on what was, by the end, a quietly dominant performance for Steve Erceg. 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg).

The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Angelo picks Steve Erceg despite being a known hater, because he believes Erceg is the cleaner, more technical grappler. He thinks Erceg's durability and wrestling will overcome Tim Elliott's pressure. However, he criticizes the -400 odds as too high and finds it hard to connect the dots.

Odds mentioned as -400; no bet recommendation.
"Steve Ursg is the pick. Four to one though. Four to one. It's I mean seems a little dicey to me, but I get it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He believes Erceg is the better striker and has underrated grappling, while Tim Elliott slows down and has poor submission defense (submitted six times). Brady expects Elliott to be competitive early but fade, allowing Erceg to catch a late submission.

Erceg by submission, round 3
"Give me Erceg to win this fight by third-round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Cody picks Erceg but is hesitant, noting Erceg's inconsistency and chin issues. He believes Erceg's takedown defense and counter grappling will be key, and that Elliott's age and travel fatigue may work against him.

"I think Erceg is a better live target than prefing at minus 210. He's going to be the pick for me, though."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Connor picks Elliott, arguing that if Elliott fights like he did in round two against Kai Asakura—pressuring and wrestling—he will win. He notes Erceg's footwork falls apart under heavy pressure and that Elliott is a better wrestler than people think. Connor acknowledges the risk of Elliott fighting stupidly but believes the current version of Elliott is more playful and enjoys breaking opponents.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm going to take a gamble on Tim Elliott smelling weakness in Steve Erseg being encouraged to pressure and just pile it on nonstop. And if he does that, he will win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Erceg, expecting him to take over in the later rounds. He notes Tim Elliott's funky style and early-round danger but believes Erceg's cardio and submission threat will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's jet lag complaints as a potential factor.

"I think Steve Ersk takes over the latter part of this fight and either wins by submission or decision."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Steve Erceg

Erceg has every advantage: home crowd, younger, better striker, better grappler. Elliott has poor striking, bad takedown defense, and is weak off his back. Erceg went five rounds with Pantoja, so submission risk is low. Surprised Erceg isn't a bigger favorite; tempted to bet straight.

"I would be very surprised if he were to lose this... he's got basically every advantage you could possibly want over Tim Elliott."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Lucrative James picks Steve Erceg to win via submission in round three. He expects Tim Elliott to start strong but fade, allowing Erceg to take over in later rounds with superior cardio and grappling. He references Erceg's past performances where he dominated late rounds.

"I will go with Steve Ursig to win this fight via submission in round three as my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

The host picks Erceg, believing his Muay Thai and BJJ will nullify Elliott's grappling. He expects Erceg to land more damage on the feet and win a decision, possibly catching Elliott in a submission. The host notes Elliott's value but thinks Erceg is the more skilled fighter.

Decision win; possible submission
"I'm going to pick Ersig. I'll keep my eye on the line throughout this week. Uh, but I feel like Erskig will end up landing more damage. I think he could potentially get a submission of his own as well, …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Paul picks Erceg, emphasizing his strong takedown defense and performance against top competition. He notes Elliott's age and travel issues, and believes Erceg will edge out a close decision in Australia.

"Steve Urs makes a lot more sense and I think it's going to be a very close competitive fight goes to the scorecards in Australia that they're going to edge it for so that's just my take on it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott after initially considering Steve Erceg. He worries about Erceg's inconsistency, citing the Ode Osbourne fight, and believes Elliott's craftiness will lead to a split decision win. He thinks Erceg may fumble in the big moment.

decision win 29-28
"I'm going to go with Tim Elliott getting this one done by decision win 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Zane picks Erceg, reasoning that Tim Elliott is likely to 'fuck around' and think takedowns will come easier than they will. He notes Erceg is a sharp boxer with good hands and combinations, and that Elliott's chaotic style could leave him exposed. Zane acknowledges Elliott could win if he pressures and wrestles correctly, but he's betting on Elliott's inconsistency.

Odds mentioned: Erceg opened at -250, now -220; Elliott opened at +210, now +185. Zane is surprised by the odds, saying Elliott has no truck with fans and Erceg's confidence is low.
"I am going to take Erceg. Because I do think Tim Elliott is just going to fuck around a lot. And he's going to think that the takedowns are going to come easier than they will."
WIN vs Kai Asakura
Submission R2 4:39 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Elliott 0 27 of 71 38% 42 of 88 2 of 3 66% 2 0 1:54
Kai Asakura 0 21 of 87 24% 38 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Elliott 0 16 of 40 40% 24 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Kai Asakura 0 11 of 45 24% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Tim Elliott 0 11 of 31 35% 18 of 38 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:05
Kai Asakura 0 10 of 42 23% 18 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Elliott 27 of 71 38% 18 of 43 2 of 18 7 of 10 26 of 69 0 of 0 1 of 2
Kai Asakura 21 of 87 24% 17 of 79 3 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Elliott 16 of 40 40% 9 of 24 1 of 8 6 of 8 15 of 39 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kai Asakura 11 of 45 24% 8 of 40 3 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tim Elliott 11 of 31 35% 9 of 19 1 of 10 1 of 2 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 1
Kai Asakura 10 of 42 23% 9 of 39 0 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kai Asakura vs. Tim Elliott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Asakura (-310), Elliott (+250)

Round 1
It’s main card time, and a pair of exciting flyweights will start off this $85 event—regional pricing notwithstanding. After over a year and a half away, elder statesman Elliott (20-13-1, 9-11 UFC) comes back to the cage to take on former title challenger and ex-Rizin champ Asakura (21-5, 0-1 UFC). The latter is looking for his first UFC win, as he was thrust into a championship opportunity in his December debut, and he fights down the rankings board to find his place in the division. The two will have referee Rob Madrigal overseeing what should be a fun one, and they do not tap their gloves together to engage.
Elliott fakes a giant spinning kick to lead off, and he lowers his hands and starts tossing out flashy kicks. Asakura answers him with two powerful punches upstairs, and Elliott still does not pick his hands up. Elliott hops up and down while switching stances, drawing out a few more punches that he avoids successfully before pitching a head kick. Elliott spins with a back kick, and he absorbs three punches to the body and head from the Japanese flyweight. Asakura bears down on Elliott to strike him a few times, and he rocks the former Glory MMA fighter with his big swings. Elliott swings back hard too, and he nods to Asakura that he got caught. Elliott waves his hands around awkwardly waiting for Asakura to engage, and he misses his strikes including an open-handed slap.
Asakura nails the longtime vet with a right hand and a left hook that drives Elliott to the wall, but Elliott bounces away no harm done. Asakura beats his man to the punch with his long strikes, and Elliott’s offense is barely going at all. Asakura puts a one-two down the pipe that cuts open Elliott’s left eyebrow, and he gets off a knee to the body and several punches after it. Elliott bounces back, landing a single low kick but getting potshotted by Asakura. Elliott tags his foe at the end of a single right hand, but it is one-and-done as he gets back to unorthodox movements and attacks like a cartwheel kick. Asakura boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott ducks down and secures a double to advance immediately to the side. Elliott spams surprisingly heavy knees to the body to open up elbows, and he briefly traps Asakura’s arm beneath his leg to open up more strikes. Elliott elbows a few more times, and Asakura scrambles to stand as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Asakura

Round 2
As the second round begins, Elliott motions to the crowd to get excited and then somersaults towards his opponent. Asakura ignores it and lets Elliott stand up so he can plant his fist in his face. Elliott’s strange movement opens up a heavy left hand for him, and he connects a second in the middle of Asakura’s counters. Chants in favor of Elliott rain down, but no one does anything to take advantage of that energy. Asakura scores a leg kick, and Elliott goes to the body and then flails his way forward with fists flying. Elliott slips and rips with a left hand, and he winds up another and catches Asakura flush on the jaw. Asakura comes up short with a flying knee, and Elliott dodges the worst of them and is right back in Asakura’s face with a left hook zooming. Asakura times a solid right hand with Elliott ducking, and Elliott just smiles at him. How demoralizing.
Elliott jams Asakura in the knee with a pair of stomping kicks, and his low kicks that follow disrupt the wide-swinging Asakura. Elliott keeps himself afloat with decent movement, especially upstairs, but he still takes the occasional power punch that turns his different parts of his face a shade of crimson. Elliott runs at his opponent and secures a takedown, but when he circles to take the back, Asakura is able to escape. Asakura just misses with two booming hooks, and Elliott is as wild as ever as he ducks some punches, dances around and shoots with a takedown. Asakura sits up, and Elliott threatens with a guillotine choke and uses it to relocate himself to full mount. Asakura pushes with all his might to relieve the pressure, but his eyes start to bulge and his face changes colors. Even with little time left in the round, Asakura cannot ride it out any longer. The former Rizin champ taps out twice on the hip, and Elliott has just pulled off quite an upset. The year is 2025 and Tim Elliott has just finished a fight over a man many years his junior.

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Kai Asakura R2 4:39 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Angelo questions why Asakura is a 3-to-1 favorite given his lack of UFC success and poor takedown defense. He believes Elliott's grit, forward pressure, and grappling can overwhelm Asakura, despite Elliott's age and layoff. He picks Elliott, rooting for him due to his personal story.

"I'm going to pick Tim Elliott here. I you know this is another like plus three and a half's tricky because Kai Sakura is dangerous."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Big Brady picks Kai Asakura to win by second-round knockout. He is worried about Tim Elliott's age (38), layoff (1 year 8 months), and cardio. He thinks Asakura has good takedown defense and nasty striking with power. He notes Elliott hasn't faced many power punchers and that Asakura is a big favorite. He also questions Elliott's training camp. He expects Asakura to finish Elliott.

Asakura by KO, round 2
"I like Kaiasakura here quite a bit. ... I think Kayakura is going to finish him here. So, I like Kaya Sakur, I'll take him to win this fight and win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Connor picks Asakura, but with low confidence, noting that Asakura is an insanely talented intercepting striker with good scrambling wrestling. He believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could lead to Elliott's first knockout loss, as Elliott is very hittable. However, he acknowledges that Elliott's tenacity and chain wrestling could exhaust Asakura, and that Asakura's defense is poor.

Asakura opened at -250, currently -300; Elliott opened at +210, currently +250
"I think this is going to be the first knockout loss of his career. I think I'll take Asakura too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tim Elliott

The host acknowledges Asakura's finishing nature but highlights Elliott's elite flyweight grappling and record. He expects Elliott to avoid Asakura's finishing style, grind him against the cage, take him down, and win by decision with top control.

"Tim Elliott is one of the best flyweight grapplers considering all the records that he holds in the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

The Guru picks Kai Asakura to win by first-round KO over Tim Elliott. He believes Asakura is more dynamic, physical, and has finishing potential. The Guru notes that Elliott lacks power and will not be able to earn Asakura's respect on the feet. He predicts Asakura will eat a few shots, realize he can take them, and then finish Elliott with a brutal combination. The Guru also mentions Elliott's age and lack of motivation as factors.

First round KO; highlight reel KO
"I think Asakura is a lot more dynamic, a lot more physical. He's larger. He's got reach on Tim Elliot. He's got a lot of finishing potential. Highlight reel. First round KO from Kaasakura."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Zane picks Asakura, but is not confident, noting that Asakura's style is high-risk and that Elliott is durable and has never been knocked out. He points out that Asakura's defense is poor but he stays focused and is hard to hurt. Zane believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could be too much for Elliott, but he acknowledges that Elliott's wrestling could be a problem if he gets takedowns.

Asakura opened at -250, currently -300; Elliott opened at +210, currently +250
"I think I'll take Asakura. I think it will probably be very fun and messy. Um, but I'm not super confident."
WIN vs Sumudaerji
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:02 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Elliott 0 10 of 21 47% 26 of 37 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:05
Sumudaerji 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Elliott 0 10 of 21 47% 26 of 37 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:05
Sumudaerji 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Elliott 10 of 21 47% 6 of 13 0 of 1 4 of 7 8 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 1
Sumudaerji 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Elliott 10 of 21 47% 6 of 13 0 of 1 4 of 7 8 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 1
Sumudaerji 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tim Elliott vs. Su Mudaerji
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-165), Mudarji (+135)

Round 1
Stepping up a few days ago to replace Allan Nascimento, former flyweight title challenger Elliott (19-13-1, 8-11 UFC) pops into this now-bantamweight bash with Mudaerji (16-5, 3-2 UFC). This scrap that could—and very well may—take place anywhere will be overseen by referee Herb Dean, and he is ready for what comes next. The fighters touch ‘em up, and Elliott somersaults his way in to kick Mudaerji. Mudaerji shrugs it off, and Elliott keeps his knee up high to fluster his opponent. Mudaerji tries to pick off the veteran from range, and he gets in long strikes every so often to get Elliott’s attention. Mudaerji stays composed and does not fall for many of the awkward movements from Elliott, and he picks his shots carefully and stings Elliott with a right hand. Mudaerji boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott grabs hold of the leg and tries to take him down. Mudaerji keeps his balance, but he gets clipped with a right hook when setting it down. Mudaerji connects with a clean left hand, and he strings several punches together until Elliott charges at him to go after a single. Elliott lifts Mudaerji’s leg above his head and elbows the Chinese fighter in the face, and he trips Mudaerji up and tosses him to the canvas. Elliott slithers his way over to half guard as he grinds on Mudaerji with elbows, and he draws blood as Mudaerji turns to his side. Elliott keeps his arm around Mudaerji’s head to threaten with a potential submission should Mudaerji sit up, and Elliott drills him with an elbow.
Elliott leaps over to the other side and locks down an arm-triangle choke, and the choke is instantly in and tight. Elliott presses down his full body weight, and blood sprays from Mudaerji’s mouth in a brutal, cinematic moment as Mudaerji loses consciousness.
Dean recognizes that Mudaerji is done, checking the arm of “Tibetan Eagle” and seeing there is no resistance, and he yanks Elliot off of the unconscious fighter. This is a great feather in the cap of the veteran, who earns his first finish since December 2017 with the technical submission.

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Su Mudaerji R1 4:02 via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Cody picks Sumudaerji because he doubts Tim Elliott's conditioning. He notes that Elliott took the fight on three days' notice and has only trained twice. Cody thinks Elliott's cardio is already suspect and will fade quickly. He believes Sumudaerji has a good left hand and can capitalize if Elliott tires. Cody suggests this is a better live bet opportunity, but for a pre-fight pick, he goes with Sumudaerji.

Live bet Sumudaerji if it gets out of the first round
"I'm gonna take suad deri suad deri's got to be he's got to have some size on him here too right"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)
Sumudaerji

Lucrative James acknowledges the volatility due to Elliott taking the fight on short notice after a recent grappling match. He sees a massive striking advantage for Sumudaerji and thinks he could crack Elliott. However, he notes Elliott's massive grappling edge and that Sumudaerji has been submitted in all his losses. He leans Sumudaerji but passes on betting because the line is +110 and he can't lay that with the grappling disparity. He picks Sumudaerji for the win.

"I'm picking suuji for the win I'm not betting on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Paul picks Tim Elliott but is curious about the submission prop. He notes that Elliott's wrestling and ground game are superior, and Sumudaerji has poor submission defense. Paul thinks Elliott can find a submission if he plays his cards right. He acknowledges Elliott's cardio issues but believes the grappling advantage is significant. Paul is waiting for the Elliott by submission prop to open and hopes for a price around +400 to +500.

Elliott by submission at +400 to +500 if available
"Elliott is the pick I'm curious what the price would be on Elliot by submission and maybe I'll play it if uh if the price is somewhat juicy"
LOSS vs Muhammad Mokaev
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:03 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Mokaev 0 30 of 43 69% 71 of 87 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:23
Tim Elliott 0 14 of 33 42% 118 of 146 3 of 6 50% 1 0 8:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Mokaev 0 20 of 31 64% 34 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:40
Tim Elliott 0 10 of 28 35% 40 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:36
2 Muhammad Mokaev 0 6 of 6 100% 33 of 35 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Tim Elliott 0 3 of 3 100% 60 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:56
3 Muhammad Mokaev 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Tim Elliott 0 1 of 2 50% 18 of 23 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Mokaev 30 of 43 69% 19 of 30 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 8 of 8 8 of 8
Tim Elliott 14 of 33 42% 8 of 21 3 of 8 3 of 4 10 of 29 1 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Mokaev 20 of 31 64% 10 of 19 9 of 11 1 of 1 14 of 25 4 of 4 2 of 2
Tim Elliott 10 of 28 35% 4 of 16 3 of 8 3 of 4 9 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Mokaev 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 6
Tim Elliott 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 3
3 Muhammad Mokaev 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tim Elliott 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tim Elliott vs. Muhammad Mokaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-485), Elliott (+370)

Round 1
Generations will clash in the preliminary headliner, when old guard representative Elliott (19-12-1, 8-10 UFC) tries to teach 23-year-old up-and-comer Mokaev (10-0, 1 NC; 4-0 UFC) a thing or two. Before a torch is or is not passed at 125 pounds, referee Jason Herzog lights it. The gloves are touched, and Elliott hops forward with his leg up and gets swatted back. Mokaev tags his opponent, but Elliott powers through it to hit a takedown and put the youngster on his back early. Mokaev looks to hook an elbow from off his back and stifle anything coming down on him, but Elliott elects to simply smack “The Punisher” in the jaw with that wing. Elliott drops down a couple elbows until Mokaev scrambles back up to his feet, and Elliott is quick to stuff a takedown that comes at him. Elliott skims the Dagestan-born fighter’s forehead with an elbow, and he chases after Mokaev with his hands down. Mokaev attempts another takedown, and he is stopped in his tracks. Mokaev puts his hands on the mat, and Elliot knees him twice with questionable strikes – largely depending on the amount of weight Mokaev had on his hands. Mokaev is fine, and the fight resumes. Elliott spins with a back kick, and his awkward kicks are frustrating the younger fighter. Mokaev lunges with a right hand, and he trips up the veteran and takes him down. Elliott snatches up a guillotine choke and torques with all his might, and Mokaev appears unconcerned at the submission and allows Elliott to gas his arms out. Elliott goes after the submission again when fully hitting his back, and that second attempt also falls short. Elliott hacks with elbows off his back, and Mokaev tries to get busy with short body shots. Elliott defends himself from anything of merit, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev

Round 2
When the second round opens, Mokaev shoots directly into a double. Elliott sees this coming and clamps down a guillotine choke. Mokaev, patient and calm, does not struggle or do much to put himself in harm’s way. Instead, he does the right things to step to the side and wriggle his neck out, and he moves to top position as Elliott elbows him illegally behind the head several times. Elliott is the active striker of the two despite Mokaev on top of him, although few strikes of merit connect on either side. Mokaev clings to the former title challenger while looking to pass, but Elliott’s guard keeps him at bay. Mokaev sits up, and he falls right into a triangle choke trap. Elliott grips hold of an armbar to make things worse, and “The Punisher” uses all of his might to lift Elliott in the air and slam him down to break up the submission. Both fighters flail their fists while in the horizontal position, and Elliott hooks his leg around Mokaev’s arm to stifle him. Mokaev settles to grind out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev

Round 3
The awkward stylings of Elliott allow him to close the distance without absorbing anything but a front kick, and he walks forward until Mokaev attempts a takedown. Elliott elbows his man in the top of the head, and after two close ones, Mokaev puts his hands on the mat and is struck with the third that is called a foul. Herzog calls time and gives Mokaev moments to recover, and Mokaev walks around getting the crowd excited. The replay shows the strikes were legal, and Herzog resets them in the same position. Mokaev uses this moment of confusion when they resume to snatch up Elliott’s ankle and flip him over in a slick maneuver. Mokaev does little with the position when he claims it, holding Elliott down and disallowing him from getting up. Elliott grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and this lets Mokaev counter him with a Von Preux setup of the shoulder over his foe’s neck. Elliott releases the grip, but “The Punisher” punishes him for making this mistake by locking down the arm-triangle choke. Mokaev, who slithers into mount, steps partially to the side and presses his full body weight down to complete the submission. Elliott does not need long before tapping out, and Mokaev has recorded the biggest win of his career impressively.

The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Tim Elliott R3 3:03 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but fades the bet. He acknowledges Mokaev's 0% takedown defense and that Tim Elliott will test it. He notes Mokaev's wins are not as dominant as they seem (Gordon old, Duran took him down, Jafel Filho had a kneebar). He thinks Mokaev's offensive wrestling will prevail but Elliott could cause an upset.

fade the bet
"m is going to be the pick I'm going to fade the BET though"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by third round submission. He notes that Tim Elliott has been submitted many times in his career, while Mokaev is a very good grappler with submission wins over black belts. Brady expects a competitive scramble but believes Mokaev will catch Elliott in a submission as Elliott tends to make mistakes.

third round submission
"give me m to win this fight I'll take M to win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Cody picks Elliott, echoing Paul's sentiment that Mokaev is untested and has shown holes in his game. He highlights Elliott's superior wrestling, scrambling, and striking volume, and notes that Mokaev's takedowns are often not held down. Cody believes Elliott's experience and ability to push a pace will lead to an upset, possibly by decision.

Split decision prop
"I'm going to fade again here in Muhammad Mokaev so Mokaev is another one of these guys that because he's got such a dope looking record"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Daniel picks Muhammad Mokaev to win, praising his toughness, wrestling, and heart, especially his survival of a kneebar. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's veteran savvy and improved training camp but believes Mokaev's youth and ability to push through fatigue will be decisive. He expects an exciting scramble-heavy fight and thinks Mokaev can submit Elliott or win a decision. He notes that Elliott has stopped prospects before but believes Mokaev is a different level.

Mokaev minus 425, Elliott plus 325; mentions possibility of submission or decision
"I'm gonna go with mokave here to extend the record to 10 and0 um but all respect to Elliott."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Muhammad Mokaev

James was heavy on Mokaev submission, playing it in two degenerate parlays and also betting half a unit on Mokaev submission in round two and round three at big prices. He also bet under 2.5 rounds. He noted that Mokaev got the submission via arm triangle at 3:33 of round three, just missing the under 2.5 by 33 seconds. James was confident Mokaev would finish, as he saw it as one of his favorite spots on the card.

Mokaev by submission in round 2 or 3; under 2.5 rounds
"I called Muhammad submission round two and round three that was one of my favorite spots on the entire card... I was heavy heavy heavy on Mokaev sub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Mokaev has phenomenal scrambling ability and pushes a high pace. He stays ahead in scrambles and dominates from top position. His striking is flashy but serves to set up takedowns. Elliott is a legitimate test but Mokaev is skilled enough to win by decision. Not confident enough to bet at -600, but would consider at -400.

"I believe that MV will be a step ahead I believe M will land the more damaging shots and I believe he'll end up getting his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Paul picks Elliott as a dog, arguing that Mokaev is overvalued based on his record against weak competition. He notes that Mokaev has low striking volume and has struggled with cardio and takedown defense, while Elliott has fought elite competition and has a scrambling style that will frustrate Mokaev. Paul believes Elliott's experience and unorthodox striking will earn him a decision or even a split decision.

Split decision prop (any fighter wins by split decision)
"I would be a fool not to take it right certainly at least as far as a pick goes on this show then why not take it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev by decision (29-28), but is hesitant. He thinks Mokaev has the reach advantage and is more dangerous on the feet, and can negate Elliott's grappling. However, he notes that Mokaev has had close fights and nearly lost to Jeffery Filho and Malcolm Gordon. He also points out that Elliott is a good bet by decision as a hedge.

Tim Elliott by decision is great money; Mokaev wins by 29-28 decision
"I am going to go with Muhammad makv but I will say there is great money on Tim Elliott by decision that's my heads up to you guys"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Elliott 0 28 of 57 49% 153 of 237 6 of 7 85% 0 0 11:13
Victor Altamirano 0 19 of 39 48% 102 of 142 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Elliott 0 9 of 14 64% 44 of 76 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:43
Victor Altamirano 0 2 of 8 25% 47 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tim Elliott 0 5 of 9 55% 49 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:08
Victor Altamirano 0 7 of 13 53% 35 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
3 Tim Elliott 0 14 of 34 41% 60 of 101 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:22
Victor Altamirano 0 10 of 18 55% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Elliott 28 of 57 49% 22 of 48 4 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 21 4 of 4 18 of 32
Victor Altamirano 19 of 39 48% 10 of 28 6 of 8 3 of 3 15 of 31 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Elliott 9 of 14 64% 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 14
Victor Altamirano 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Tim Elliott 5 of 9 55% 4 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 2
Victor Altamirano 7 of 13 53% 4 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Tim Elliott 14 of 34 41% 10 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 16 2 of 2 7 of 16
Victor Altamirano 10 of 18 55% 6 of 13 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Victor Altamirano vs. Tim Elliott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-175), Altamirano (+150)

Round 1
This flyweight affair figures to be a wild one, as former title challenger Elliott (18-12-1, 7-10 UFC) has gone through a lot lately and is looking to push past personal drama to record a win. He faces Texan Altamirano (12-2, 2-1 UFC), who has strung two wins together on his own ledger. This potentially high-paced contest will have referee Mark Smith serve as the Octagon ranger, and the amped up fighters touch gloves quickly. Altamirano leaps out from his corner with kicks, and as he does, Elliott grabs hold of one and lowers him to the floor. Altamirano defends when his seat hits the mat with powerful hammerfists, and Elliott responds with his own from on top. Altamirano is active on his back with strikes and movement, wriggling and trying to force a scramble or irritate Elliott enough with his blows to slow offense. Altamirano kicks off the chest to fight his way up, and when he is upright again, he throws a low kick. Elliott catches it and dumps his man to the floor, and he starts unloading with Donkey Kong-esque hammerfists. Altamirano threatens with an armbar off his back, and Elliott shucks it off so that he can continue striking. Altamirano sets up a high guard and considers another armbar, and Elliott once more pushes through it to land shots. Altamirano stays busy with an offensive guard, despite the strikes landing on his face repeatedly, and the veteran Elliott sees the setups and knows how to avoid any of them from getting too close. Elliott stands up to stack his man up, and he lowers himself back down while dropping punches. Elliott grinds his forehead on the opponent, slugging away all the while. Elliott is seemingly frantic with his strikes, but doing so allows him to not set up a pattern that can allow him to fall into a trap. Altamirano tries to secure another armbar, and Elliott tosses it aside to punch “El Magnifico” in the face. Elliott keeps beating on Altamirano, with no strike individually immensely powerful, but the number is adding up fast. The round ends, and Smith is quick to get between them as they still want to keep going at it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
The fighters toss out a glove touch just before engaging, and Elliott walks into a leg kick and a right hand. Altamirano gets up close, and Elliott manages to force a scramble that lets him dump Altamirano to his back. Elliott looks to pick up where he left off, with erratic ground strikes and no fear of Altamirano’s guard. Elliott places his knee on his foe’s to pry open the guard, and he drags his elbow back and forth on Altamirano’s face as if he were trying to saw a log with it. Elliott postures up after landing some strikes, and he allows Altamirano to stand up so that he can drive several knees to the body. Altamirano celebrates the standing position again by booting Elliott upside the head, and the former title challenger is stung and ends up falling to his back. Altamirano climbs on top of him, and he laces an elbow over the top while Elliott maintains butterfly hooks. Elliott manages to kick off, and he darts forward with a right hand. Altamirano responds with a single, and Elliott drops down for a guillotine choke that has no legs to it. Elliott lines up a left hand, a haymaker from downtown, and he succeeds in blasting Altamirano in the head with it. Elliott takes advantage of this by bowling Altamirano over, and he moves on top even as Altamirano turns to his side in an effort to escape. Elliott settles for controlling position as he looks to move into a more traditional position on top, and he shifts into the guard that closes around him. Elliott grinds his forehead in the eye socket, and Altamirano throws his legs up for something, anything. Elliott ignores this so he can mount some offense, and he proceeds to batter Altamirano until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 3
Elliott practically runs out of his corner to start kicking, and he lifts his leg up in the air to hop forward and kick down with a stomp to the knee. Elliott hops back and forth, springing to the side, and Smith tells to fight. Elliott obliges him by swinging a monstrous right hand, and Altamirano eats it like brisket and strikes back. Altamirano slips a kick up to the head, and Elliott ducks into a subsequent kick and avoids a spinning wheel kick. The kicks from the Texan open him up to grappling, and Elliott exploits this with an easy takedown. Elliott leans Altamirano up against the cage between the corner of the floor and the wall, and he sits in the guard slamming Altamirano with elbows. Altamirano keeps his guard up to not let many get through, but Elliott is busy attacking while Altamirano is stuck defending on his back. Altamirano gets dragged out from sitting up so that Elliott can keep working him over, and Altamirano tries and fails for a high guard to a submission effort. Elliott remains active on top with movement and control, but he lacks offense as Smith grows restless. Altamirano explodes to his seat and up, and Elliott meets him on the way up with a knee that was borderline. Altamirano gets up and releases a head kick, and Elliott takes it on the chin and keeps on chugging. Altamirano strings a few punches together into a leg kick, and Elliott gathers his thoughts and secures a takedown to place the Texan flat on his back. Elliott lands in the guard, and Altamirano closes it up and hangs on to prevent getting struck. Elliott grinds with a few elbows as Altamirano feebly tosses his legs up for an armbar. Elliott keeps on striking right to the bitter end, and he stands and marches away with a frown on his face at the sound of the horn, expecting he will get his hand raised very shortly.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Victor Altamirano via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Angelo picks Elliott, citing his pressure, volume, and grappling. He thinks Altamirano's takedown defense is improving but still not good enough. Elliott's ability to keep coming forward and secure takedowns will be the difference. Angelo is confident Elliott gets it done.

"I think Tim Elliott does win this fight um because if Victor off the Murano I mentioned his takedown defense is improving which it is improving but it's still not good"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Cody picks Elliott but with reservations. He highlights Elliott's wrestling as his best weapon, but worries that Elliott's stated intention to slug it out could backfire. Cody notes Altamirano's durability and speed, and that Elliott's best performances come when he has personal animosity (like against Espinoza). He thinks the under is an interesting play but is not confident in Elliott's game plan.

Under 3 takedowns for Tim Elliott on PrizePicks
"I will pick I will pick him because the man on a mission is a very dangerous thing but do I feel confident about it Paul like no how could you"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Connor picks Elliott, agreeing it's a levels fight. He notes that Altamirano's striking is poor and his grappling is functional but not dangerous. Connor believes Elliott's experience and scrambling ability will be too much, even if Elliott is emotionally affected by his divorce.

Mentions Elliott's divorce and personal issues as potential motivation.
"I would never pick Altamirana to beat Elliott. So I'm not doing it now."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Daniel leans Tim Elliott in a three-round fight, citing Elliott's experience and the fact that Altamirano is a slow starter. He notes that if it were five rounds, he'd pick Altamirano, but in three rounds Elliott's early pressure and wrestling should carry him. He acknowledges the outside drama but doesn't think it affects the fight.

"I'm gonna pick Tim Elliott as well"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Jacob picks Elliott, believing he does everything a little better than Altamirano. He notes Elliott's gas tank and ability to outwork opponents. Jacob is concerned about Altamirano's power but thinks Elliott's wrestling and pressure will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's emotional state could be a factor but still picks him.

"I think Tim Elliott does everything a little bit better than Victor and showed a great great gas tank in his last fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Elliott has personal motivation and a grappling-heavy style that will exploit Altamirano's questionable takedown defense. Altamirano has a good kicking game but struggles in the smaller cage. Elliott will land multiple takedowns, control positions, and win a decision.

"give me Tim Elliott by decision and I feel pretty good about it too"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Paul picks Tim Elliott but is not confident. He notes Elliott's wrestling advantage and Altamirano's suspect takedown defense. However, Elliott's recent comments about seeking a KO and doing wild stuff raise concerns about game plan discipline. Paul also mentions Elliott's age (38) and personal issues. He thinks the under 2.5 rounds at +215 is interesting due to narrative, but he's not fully sold on Elliott's approach.

Under 2.5 rounds at +215
"I will pick I will pick him because the man on a mission is a very dangerous thing but do I feel confident about it Paul like no how could you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott, noting he has a win over Tagir Ulanbekov and has fought the best in the flyweight division, including competitive decisions with top fighters. He criticizes Victor Altamirano for being technically not good, though dangerous with crazy shots. He expects Elliott to outpoint and frustrate Altamirano to a 29-28 decision win.

Elliott by 29-28 decision
"I'm definitely gonna side with Tim Elliott here to out Point Victor outa Murano and frustrate him to a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Zane picks Elliott, viewing this as a levels matchup. He notes that Altamirano is tough but has poor defense and limited technique, while Elliott's scrambling and wrestling should dominate. Zane acknowledges the personal turmoil in Elliott's life (divorce) but believes his anger could fuel a strong performance.

Mentions Elliott's divorce and personal issues as potential motivation.
"I got to pick Elliott here. This is a levels matchup to me."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Elliott 1 79 of 179 44% 117 of 227 3 of 9 33% 0 0 0:52
Tagir Ulanbekov 0 90 of 186 48% 111 of 212 2 of 10 20% 1 0 4:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Elliott 1 36 of 82 43% 44 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 0:31
Tagir Ulanbekov 0 38 of 78 48% 38 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
2 Tim Elliott 0 23 of 52 44% 44 of 76 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:21
Tagir Ulanbekov 0 21 of 45 46% 26 of 50 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:28
3 Tim Elliott 0 20 of 45 44% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tagir Ulanbekov 0 31 of 63 49% 47 of 84 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Elliott 79 of 179 44% 30 of 113 15 of 26 34 of 40 64 of 160 15 of 19 0 of 0
Tagir Ulanbekov 90 of 186 48% 70 of 162 15 of 19 5 of 5 65 of 158 23 of 26 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Elliott 36 of 82 43% 16 of 52 6 of 14 14 of 16 31 of 76 5 of 6 0 of 0
Tagir Ulanbekov 38 of 78 48% 30 of 68 8 of 10 0 of 0 34 of 73 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Tim Elliott 23 of 52 44% 9 of 35 5 of 7 9 of 10 14 of 40 9 of 12 0 of 0
Tagir Ulanbekov 21 of 45 46% 18 of 41 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 35 9 of 10 0 of 0
3 Tim Elliott 20 of 45 44% 5 of 26 4 of 5 11 of 14 19 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tagir Ulanbekov 31 of 63 49% 22 of 53 4 of 5 5 of 5 19 of 50 10 of 11 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tim Elliott vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

Round 1
It’s the U.S. vs. Russia up now in the flyweight division, as former title challenger Elliott (17-12-1, 6-10 UFC) will try to become the second fighter to beat Ulanbekov (14-1, 2-0 UFC) as a pro. Having laced up his shoes, referee Chris Tognoni is now prepared for what could be a thrilling, fast-paced grappling affair for as long as it lasts. The gloves get touched, and Elliott swings with a spinning back kick that is well out of the way. Elliott turns through to score a leg kick, and Ulanbekov dings him up with two jabs and a one-two. Elliott keeps his hands down, and Ulanbekov cracks him with a right hand and follows it with a front kick. Elliott ignores the strikes to wade forward, throwing unorthodox strikes like stomp kicks to the knee and whipping uppercuts. The American charges ahead and secures a quick takedown, and Ulanbekov fights his way back to his knees. Elliott blasts him in the face with a knee, and it is unclear if Ulanbekov’s knee was off the ground as to whether it was illegal or legal, but it appeared that Ulanbekov’s knee was down. Despite this, we continue, and Elliott shouts at his man to come on and fight him. Elliott blitzes forward, landing punches and low kicks, and evading the strikes with odd, bobbing head movement. Ulanbekov replies with a punch to the chest, and he checks a kick but gets smacked with a left hand. Ulanbekov is much more composed with jabs, but as he flicks one out, the ex-title challenger darts forward and lands another takedown. The Russian is not down for more than one second before exploding back up, and Elliott is quick to chase him down and land another. Ulanbekov sweeps him after a wide scramble, and he gets back to his feet. Tognoni calls time as Elliott sticks his hands out to strike, and he warns Elliott from keeping his fingers outstretched while Elliott protests. The fight resumes, and Elliott lands a front kick to the body and a low kick. Elliott dips a few punches, eats a couple more, and slings a left hook that slides off the side of Ulanbekov’s head. Elliott tries to step in with an elbow, and as he does, Ulanbekov drills him with a few punches. Elliott laughs them off, keeps his self-described movement awkward, and he turns his hips while launching a massive left hand. The strike sends Ulanbekov crashing down to the mat, and he appears to get back up after the flash knockdown only into the hands of Elliott, who takes him down. Ulanbekov powers his way back up, gets popped with another questionable knee when he was standing, and he starts talking to his corner. The wild and crazy round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
The gloves get touched to start the second round, and Elliott comes out with a brief swarm of punches. Ulanbekov is energized, and he returns fire with a salvo of his own. Elliott just misses with a huge overhand right, and he windmills a left that follows that blows Ulanbekov’s hair back. The Russian mixes things up with a takedown try, and Elliott sprawls well and pops right back up. Ulanbekov gets off a few right hands, appearing to have started to time the head movement, and he ignores the counters from Elliott to score a hard right hand. When Elliott marches forward, Ulanbekov hits a double that puts the former title challenger on his seat momentarily. Elliott scoots his way to the wall to power back up, and when Ulanbekov tries to secure a mat return, Elliott scrambles to wind up on top. As they both get back up to their feet, Elliott lands a few punches that make Ulanbekov blow his nose out. Ulanbekov drills Elliott in the jaw with a right hand, and Elliott comes forward to clinch. Elliott grabs his foe’s glove and cracks Ulanbekov with a punch from his other hand, and Ulanbekov protests to draw a warning from Tognoni. They both try to set up a takedown after this confusion, and a furious scramble ensues where Elliott is able to take top position and even snag mount for a couple seconds. Ulanbekov fights his way back up, and he lifts Elliott in the air but cannot wrangle him, as the former title challenger circles around to take top position until Ulanbekov bucks him off. They tie up, and start belting one another with short elbows and punches. Elliott grabs Ulanbekov’s glove again and tries to slug him in the face, but Ulanbekov is able to evade the blow and he shoots for a double that plows Elliott in the wall. Ulanbekov holds on tight, not letting Elliott get space, and ignoring when Elliott starts chattering at him. Elliott fights off one takedown, and he throws up a guillotine right when the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 3
The last round begins with no glove touch, as replays show several uncalled illegal moves that Elliott got away with in the previous round, all while Ulanbekov’s coach Khabib Nurmagomedov is incensed. Dundasso is alive and well in the Octagon tonight. The action starts off with Elliott attacking, working the body with kicks and a few punches. Ulanbekov replies with a single crisp elbow, and he backs off and marks Elliott up with a one-two. A cut opens up on the corner of Ulanbekov’s eye, but it does not appear to be from a punch but rather from when they clacked heads when they were tied up. They clinch up again just long enough for Ulanbekov to work the body with several knees, and Ulanbekov hops back and dives forward with a double-leg takedown. Elliott sprawls, using the fence as his ally, but Ulanbekov lifts his leg off the ground to drop Elliott to a knee. Ulanbekov tries to elevate the ex-title challenger again, to no avail, as Elliott is able to get his feet beneath him to keep himself upright. With his hands clasping Elliott from behind, Ulanbekov gets off several emphatic knees to the back of Elliott’s thigh. Ulanbekov hops on to the back, circling over to get one hook in. As Elliott tries to escape, he leans over and Ulanbekov crawls on to his back to take it and secure a body triangle. From there, the Russian attacks a rear-naked choke, and Elliott grimaces but grits it out. Elliott legally fights the hands, holding on to the wrist instead of the inseam of a glove, and he stops the choke but cannot stop punches connecting to the side of his head. Ulanbekov keeps his body triangle tight, landing unanswered shots, and he pounds away until the final bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Tagir Ulanbekov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Angelo picks Ulanbekov but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Ulanbekov is a dominant wrestler but has been taken down and outstruck in the UFC. He thinks Elliott's experience and jiu-jitsu could make it closer. He would make Ulanbekov a -150 favorite, not -300.

"taki er is the pick but if i were the odds maker i would say to gear is like a minus 150 favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Big Brady picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ulanbekov is younger, longer, and has good grappling and submission skills. Brady points out that Tim Elliott has been submitted five times and has not beaten a high-level opponent in years. He believes Ulanbekov will win the grappling exchanges and eventually submit Elliott. Brady also mentions that Elliott's best wins are against lower-tier fighters, while Ulanbekov represents a step up.

Ulanbekov by submission in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to take onla becca to actually submit tim elliott"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Cody leans Elliott as a live underdog, noting Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC and has cardio and top control issues. He thinks Elliott's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability could cause problems. However, he is wary of Elliott's cardio and the 'Dagestan father's plan' narrative, so he calls it a dog-or-pass.

"i think tim elliott's live"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win, possibly by submission. He criticizes Tim Elliott's attitude, cardio, and recent performances. He believes Ulanbekov's relentless takedown style and Dagestani pressure will wear Elliott down. He notes that Elliott has been submitted multiple times and that Ulanbekov has a mounted guillotine threat. He predicts Ulanbekov will submit Elliott or win a dominant decision.

"i think to be rolling becca i was going to impress a lot of people and i think he's going to come out here and actually submit uh tim elliott"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Ulanbekov has good grappling and scrambling, but his fights are often close. Elliott is a tricky veteran who could pull off an upset if he's in shape. Ulanbekov should win most of the grappling exchanges and get top position, but Elliott's hip tosses and awkward style could cause problems. The over 2.5 rounds is a better play than betting Ulanbekov straight.

Over 2.5 rounds at -150
"i do lean the euler back offside like i said i don't know if it's just my post-traumatic bet disorder even though i've cashed on him in the past he makes these fights very very close"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Paul picks Ulanbekov but expects a dicey fight. He notes Ulanbekov's wrestling is good but his top control is not dominant, and Elliott is tough to hold down. Paul thinks Ulanbekov's takedowns and pace could win rounds, but Elliott's scrambling and volume make it close. He calls it a stay-away but leans Ulanbekov.

"i am gonna go to gear but i'm fully expecting a dice your fight than the line suggests"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott as a big underdog over Tagir Ulanbekov, expressing surprise at the odds. He criticizes Ulanbekov's performances, calling him the 'runt of the litter' from Dagestan, and notes he struggled against short-notice opponent Alan Nascimento. He believes Elliott's pace, grappling, and chin will overwhelm Ulanbekov, predicting a close 29-28 split decision where Elliott out-hustles him. He mentions Elliott's experience and Ulanbekov's red flags like razor-close fights and gifted decisions.

underdog pick, odds comment: 'he is a big underdog'
"i'm going with tim elliott over to gerald and beckov he is a big underdog"
LOSS vs Matheus Nicolau
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matheus Nicolau 0 70 of 215 32% 105 of 255 1 of 10 10% 0 0 2:28
Tim Elliott 0 64 of 109 58% 128 of 176 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matheus Nicolau 0 24 of 62 38% 26 of 64 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Tim Elliott 0 19 of 29 65% 23 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Matheus Nicolau 0 29 of 101 28% 31 of 105 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:18
Tim Elliott 0 31 of 56 55% 31 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Matheus Nicolau 0 17 of 52 32% 48 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:36
Tim Elliott 0 14 of 24 58% 74 of 87 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matheus Nicolau 70 of 215 32% 39 of 160 11 of 28 20 of 27 62 of 207 7 of 7 1 of 1
Tim Elliott 64 of 109 58% 28 of 63 31 of 38 5 of 8 64 of 107 0 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matheus Nicolau 24 of 62 38% 10 of 42 4 of 7 10 of 13 20 of 58 3 of 3 1 of 1
Tim Elliott 19 of 29 65% 9 of 16 9 of 12 1 of 1 19 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Matheus Nicolau 29 of 101 28% 19 of 82 3 of 10 7 of 9 26 of 98 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tim Elliott 31 of 56 55% 12 of 31 16 of 20 3 of 5 31 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Matheus Nicolau 17 of 52 32% 10 of 36 4 of 11 3 of 5 16 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Elliott 14 of 24 58% 7 of 16 6 of 6 1 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tim Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau

Round 1
Flyweights with energy for days come up in what the UFC calls the “featured fight of the night,” as former title challenger Elliott (17-11-1, 6-9 UFC) tries to make it three in a row against Brazil’s Nicolau (16-2-1, 4-1 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog has his work cut out for him in what should be a speedy one from start to finish, and the gloves are touched before they are traded furiously. Nicolau is the first to engage with a heavy leg kick, and Elliott runs after him while lifting his leg in the air to avoid another such kick. He sprints forward, throws a right hand, and backs off to start up his herky-jerky style. Elliott points at his opponent, shouts, and then pump-fakes before landing a left hand. He follows Nicolau around the cage, and they clash heads. Elliott swarm him with a few punches, and when Nicolau falls down to the ground, Elliott fires off a soccer kick that just misses being illegal, and instead connects to the body. Elliott allows his man to stand, and points at him again for landing a successful strike. Nicolau sticks Elliott with a punch and moves away when Elliott comes at him with a standing back fist and a few more unorthodox strikes. Nicolau just comes up short with a spinning kick, and he gets kicked with a push kick to the knee. Elliott hops at him with one leg air in the air, and Nicolau appears a little confused by the antics of his opponent. Elliott, hands down, throws up a head kick and avoids the counter. Elliott charges ahead with a right hand and a diving takedown, and when he in unsuccessful in his first attempt, he manages to ground Nicolau on his second try. The Brazilian pops back up and takes several knees to the gluteus maximus, until Elliott spins around and pursues a takedown. The fighter that some call “Awkward” presses Nicolau into the wire when he cannot trip him down, and the pace slows down significantly as they jockey for position. Nicolau pushes off to break free, and Elliott stands in front of him with his hands at his waist and chin left out in the open. Nicolau pops him with a strike, and he glances with a left hand. The distance is too great for Nicolau to close in on him, but he does score a pair of hooks before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
The flyweights are ready to scrap to start off the second round, and Elliott ducks a few looping punches so that he can go after a takedown. He does not ground Nicolau, but he takes his back and pushes him against the wall. Elliott gets blasted with a right hand, and it shakes him up as he falls towards the cage. His antics and lack of defense could be an extreme liability should Nicolau continue to find his chin, and Nicolau is starting to pick up on his oddball movements. Nicolau marks Elliott up with punches, and he shucks Elliott off of him when the American tries to engage. They clash heads, but no serious damage comes from it. Elliott swings heavily for punches, and he points around to various places on the floor as Nicolau ignores it. The Brazilian tags Elliott with a few punches, and he decides to aim to the body when Elliott moves his head out of the way. Elliott rushes in for a takedown try, clinching Nicolau up and pushing him into the fence. Like earlier in the round, Nicolau stops it and pushes off, where he can work the body again. Elliott’s midsection has turned into a heavy bag as his defense is firmly out the window, as Nicolau tees off on him without taking anything else coming back at him. The takedown entries are unsuccessful as Nicolau ducks out of the way and showboats a little in response. Elliott grins at him, gets punched in the face, and continues to wobble and hop around strangely. When Nicolau drills Elliott in the chin with a right hand, Elliott smiles and nods, but his subsequent takedown try comes up short. Elliott takes a few more body shots, and his elbow drops to defend these strikes. The American marches forward relentlessly, only to take punches and a head kick. When Elliott lands one, Nicolau strings three together and stuffs a takedown attempt as they drop to their knees. Nicolau stays away until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau

Round 3
They clap hands to start off the last round, and Nicolau comes out firing with a blitzing combination. Nicolau blocks a high kick and watches as Elliott awkwardly hops towards him with his leg in the air. Elliott stings his opponent with a left hand, and Nicolau gives him one back and then another for good measure. Elliott crowds Nicolau and cracks him with a left hand, and he backs off just in time to avoid a home run punch. An effective front kick touches the chin of Nicolau, who avoids three more that come at him one after the other. Elliott punches his way towards a takedown of some sort, and Nicolau works the body only to get pressed into the wire. Elliott begins to knee the thigh while Nicolau is intent on breaking apart, and after a few right hands. The hopping around of Elliott leads to his liver getting pounded by the Brazilian, and when his leg is in the air, Nicolau blasts through to hit a double leg takedown of his own. Elliott closes with a high guard, and Nicolau lifts him up and slams him down to break the grip. A few punches from Nicolau land behind the head, and he adjusts his angle as Elliott turns his head. Nicolau continues to lift Elliott up and slam him on the mat again and again until the tight grip that the American holds is released. Nicolau lands some ground-and-pound until Elliott closes his guard again, and Herzog asks them to keep working. Elliott holds on for dear life, until he doesn’t, and Nicolau lands some shots. The Brazilian punches his way out, but Elliott kicks off and gets back to his feet. Elliott tries to get his foe to throw down with seconds to go before the final bell, but Nicolau largely defends himself and backs away to cruise to what he thinks is a decision win.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)

The Official Result
Matheus Nicolau def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Angelo picks Tim Elliott, loving his grit, pressure, and volume. He thinks Elliott's dirty style and grappling can overwhelm Nicolau. He notes Elliott's recent wins and considers the money line at plus 167. He acknowledges Elliott's tendency to make stupid decisions but feels he's on a rebirth.

Tim Elliott money line at +167 (considering)
"I like Tim Elliott here, and I honestly might grab the money line. When I checked it earlier, it was at plus 167."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Cody picks Nicolau confidently, noting Elliott's cardio issues and tendency to fade after 7-8 minutes. He points out that Elliott's wins are against low-level competition who have been cut, while Nicolau is a young, improving prospect with elite training. He believes Nicolau's skills and durability will be too much for Elliott.

"i couldn't agree more man i got to go with nikolao"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Daniel Levi favors Matheus Nicolau due to his cleaner hands, black belt jiu-jitsu, and 100% takedown defense, which he attributes to training at Nova União. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's improved cardio and scrambles but believes Nicolau is the more talented fighter in all areas. His only concern is Nicolau's chin, but he notes Elliott is not a knockout threat, so he picks Nicolau to win.

"i got a favorite nickel out here i think he's got the cleaner hands i think he's got the better jiu jitsu i think he's got the higher ceiling"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Jacob picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter. He thinks this is a changing of the guard fight. He initially thought Tim Elliott would be the lock of the week but changed his mind after seeing Nicolau's girlfriend is still with him. He believes Nicolau's skills will prevail.

"I think Matthysse is going to win. He's a better fighter. I think this is a changing of the guard fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

The host confidently picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter everywhere. He praises Nicolau's technical striking and BJJ, and expects him to win striking exchanges and potentially submit Elliott when Elliott gets wild. He notes Elliott's awkward style but believes Nicolau can nullify his takedowns and find a submission in the third round.

Nicolau by submission (third round)
"I actually really like nikolao in this spot probably one of my more confident spots on the card"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Paul picks Nicolau, citing Elliott's improved cardio under James Krause but still limited. He notes Nicolau is on a different level, with wins over rising prospects. He believes Elliott's best days are behind him and Nicolau's youth and skill set will prevail.

"i just think nikolao is is on a different level"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau to win by close 29-28 decision. He trusts Nicolau's grappling and believes Elliott's only path is takedowns, but Nicolau's grappling is good enough to defend. He notes Nicolau's strong regional record and power at flyweight.

Nicolau by decision
"i'm gonna go matthias nikolao... i think his grappling is good... i'm gonna go with matthias nikolao winning this one over the three rounds in a very close bout back and forth 29-28"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Elliott 0 25 of 44 56% 91 of 120 4 of 7 57% 0 0 13:19
Jordan Espinosa 0 13 of 25 52% 22 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Elliott 0 6 of 14 42% 23 of 33 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:57
Jordan Espinosa 0 7 of 13 53% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tim Elliott 0 7 of 10 70% 24 of 32 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:35
Jordan Espinosa 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tim Elliott 0 12 of 20 60% 44 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:47
Jordan Espinosa 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Elliott 25 of 44 56% 14 of 27 10 of 14 1 of 3 4 of 17 6 of 9 15 of 18
Jordan Espinosa 13 of 25 52% 7 of 18 4 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 15 4 of 5 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Elliott 6 of 14 42% 1 of 6 4 of 6 1 of 2 2 of 8 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jordan Espinosa 7 of 13 53% 2 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Tim Elliott 7 of 10 70% 4 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 6
Jordan Espinosa 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tim Elliott 12 of 20 60% 9 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 12
Jordan Espinosa 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tim Elliott vs. Jordan Espinosa

Round 1
Two exciting flyweights cap off the early preliminary card, prefaced by a battle for the ages between outstanding walkout music choices, when former title challenger Elliott (16-11-1, 5-9 UFC) takes on Espinosa (15-8, 1 NC; 2-3 UFC). Trying to keep up with what should be a fast-paced affair is referee Mark Smith, who bears witness to no glove touch before the madness begins. Elliott blocks a head kick that zooms at him, and he dodges a second one as well. Elliott charges in and gets shoved over, but he recovers himself to press in for a takedown. Espinosa stands him up and gets pressed into the fence, and Elliott embraces the grind as he threatens with trips but cannot set anything up. They separate, and Elliott chops at the calf and kicks the chest, but he blocks a head kick that comes right back. Espinosa scores a big left hand that prompts a takedown attempt from the former title challenger. Elliott cannot secure one, and gets off a shoulder strike and a knee to the thigh, but Espinosa pushes away and separates. Espinosa swings and misses with a big right hand, and when he fires off a head kick, Elliott barely dodges it and bullrushes Espinosa to the ground. Elliott gets a hook in for back control as Espinosa on one knee in a tough position trapped against the fence. Elliott sneaks his way to take full back control, and the only thing stopping him is the cage behind Espinosa. Elliott softens his foe up with several punches to aim for a choke attempt, and Elliott flirts with the choke while pounding on “The Gamer.” Espinosa rolls to his back and Elliott sucks his opponent’s legs out, so Espinosa latches on to a kimura to pursue a sweep. Elliott keeps Espinosa trapped on his back and ties up his own hammerlock, but Espinosa breaks the grip to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
Elliott crashes forward to begin the round, throwing a left hand before diving down into a takedown attempt. Espinosa thwarts it, backs off, throws a head kick, and gets shoved to his back. Espinosa scrambles wildly and kicks off, pulling himself back to his feet using the fence. Espinosa tries to get off a one-two, and Elliott easily drags him back to the ground. Using a half guard, Espinosa keeps a tight leg scissor on Elliott’s leg to keep him there. The former challenger breaks through to sit up and start hacking down with elbows. Espinosa scrambles but gets put flat on his back, and Elliott grinds out his adversary while landing sporadic strikes. A frustrated Espinosa scoots to the fence and to one knee, but Elliott is on him and has one hook in to take the back. Elliott uses his forearm to squeeze Espinosa’s face, and Espinosa leans over and falls into a rear-naked choke attempt. Elliott cannot get his hands locked, as Espinosa breaks the grip, but Espinosa is trapped in defense-only mode. Elliott smothers his foe and starts dropping down punches, and Espinosa rolls to his knees as he continues to take punches to the side of the head. Espinosa tries to use two-on-one wrist control to sweep Elliott, but Elliott easily pulls his arm free and hops on top to elbow Espinosa in the face repeatedly. Elliott starts talking trash from his dominant position, threatening and using big words that get by the censors to intimidate him, possibly using the words "woman beater" as he shouts at Espinosa. The round ends with Elliott grinding his forearm on Espinosa’s neck.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Elliott

Round 3
Smith warns Elliott on his language between rounds, and Elliott is amped up and ready to go wild. When the round begins, Elliott advances recklessly and nearly winds up taking a flying knee on the chin. Elliott defends against it and hits a takedown with ease, where he takes a half guard position as Espinosa is already stuck flat on his back. Espinosa rolls to his side and gets punched in the side repeatedly, so Elliott returns to mount and throws strikes from on top. Espinosa tries to give him a few back, leading Elliott to elbow him several times. Espinosa defends off his back with a few elbows, and he slashes the top of Elliott’s head open and starts an immediate flow of blood. Elliott bleeds directly and intentionally into Espinosa’s eyes, blinding his foe and grinding his head into Espinosa’s. Espinosa pulls for an armbar and Elliott stands up to free himself, and he may be slippery because of the massive blood flow. Elliott climbs back on top, where he sits in side control and sets up an arm-triangle choke. The former title challenger continues to rack up control time as Espinosa is practically completely defenseless, as Elliott aims for another arm-triangle choke. Espinosa links his toes in the cage to push off, and Smith stops him from doing this. Elliott smashes his man repeatedly with elbows and punches at the 10-second clapper, trying to finish the fight in a fury. Elliott even attempts an axe kick to the body – stomps to the body are banned in some jurisdictions – as the two go wild in the final seconds. The fight ends with no reconciliation between the two, and we have gone the distance for the first time this evening.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Jordan Espinosa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Big Brady picks Tim Elliott, relying on Elliott's wrestling advantage (4 takedowns per 15 minutes) and Espinosa's questionable 90% takedown defense against weak competition. He notes Espinosa has been submitted 4 times and has underwhelming UFC wins. He predicts a submission win for Elliott but admits he doesn't love the pick.

"i'm going to take tim elliott here don't love it but um i'm gonna say he wins by submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jordan Espinosa

Daniel picks Jordan Espinosa to win a decision, citing his speed and athleticism. He notes that if Espinosa stays focused for 15 minutes, he should win, but acknowledges that a finish would favor Tim Elliott.

"if jordan espinoza can just stay focused on his game for 15 minutes he's going to come out here and win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Elliott's awkward movement and unorthodox style could trouble Espinosa, who struggles against grapplers. The host likes Elliott's submission threat and predicts a second-round submission, but is not confident enough to bet himself.

tim elliott via submission round two
"i'm going elliott i'll go either first or second round submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott over Jordan Espinosa. He notes Elliott has fought better competition and shown more grit, while Espinosa tends to fade. He believes Elliott will pressure, clinch, and win by 29-28 unanimous decision.

"i'm picking tim elliott here evens on odds i think he's way better than jordan espinoza"
Sumudaerji - Fight History
SCHED vs Alex Perez
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Su Mudaerji vs. Alex Perez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Perez (-140); Mudaerji (+115)

Round 1
The six-fight main card kicks off with Sumudaerji (19-7; 6-4 UFC) looking to put the brakes on a ghastly 0-4 run for Chinese fighters thus far—even if one was an iffy decision—against perennial flyweight contender Perez (26-10; 8-6 UFC). The referee is Mark Craig. Perez is standing orthodox, Sumudaerji southpaw, and the “Tibetan Eagle” towers over the American. There are a couple of awkward-looking collisions at kicking range as both men learn to navigate the distance on the feet, but neither man has landed much of consequence a minute in when Perez drives his foe to the cage. He takes an underhook and punches with the free hand, perhaps looking for a takedown opportunity, but makes no real attempt to do so before Sumudaerji shoves him off. They reset and Perez surges forward with a trio of hard punches that back Sumudaerji off. Half the round gone and it’s still an awkward, somewhat tentative fight, with each fighter taking turns exploding with bursts of offense, but most of the hardest shots are coming from Perez, who is having an increasingly easy time getting inside the taller man’s range and landing to the head. Perez changes levels for a takedown and Sumudaerji sprawls beautifully. With 30 seconds to go, the Tibetan drops for a surprise takedown of his own and is snared in a tight guillotine. Perez adjusts his grip and Sumudaerji is stuck, but in danger of being choked, until the horn.
10-9 Perez.

Round 2
In the first serious exchange of the round, Sumudaerji lands a clean left hand that hurts Perez badly. He gives chase, landing in Perez’s half guard and dropping big shots. Some are blocked, but enough get through cleanly that referee Craig is looking on with new interest. Perez recovers, however, and once he wraps his foe back up in full guard, the action slows enough that Craig stands them up. Seconds later, Sumudaerji reaches out with a left front kick that impacts the cup of Perez, who goes down as if shot with a Taser. Perez motions for a bucket and promptly (and loudly) vomits. UFC color commentator Laura Sanko is nauseated by the sound of Perez retching, and we’re right there with her. Perez appears to recover, but then calls for the bucket once again and hurls. We still don’t know whether this thing is going to resume, but Craig indicates that Sumudaerji is being docked a point. After the prescribed five-minute break for the foul, Perez is still unable to stand, let alone fight, and Craig waves it off. Considering that he had already called the foul a point deduction, that should mean we have a disqualification on the way, but we get a no contest instead because rules don’t mean anything.

The Official Result
Alex Perez vs. Su Mudaerji ends R2 1:45 via No Contest (Inadvertent Groin Strike)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

AJ picks Sumudaerji as his underdog lock of the week. He highlights Sumudaerji's length advantage (72-inch reach vs 65.5), improved takedown defense, and distance striking as key factors. He questions Alex Perez's consistency, weight cutting issues, and momentum, noting Perez has only one win since 2021. AJ predicts a decision win for Sumudaerji, citing his technical striking and defensive grappling.

Sumudaerji decision +275 mentioned as a prop; moneyline at +115 is the lock
"Sumaderi is going to give Alex Perez stylistic trouble with stand up and eliminate the takedown threat."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

AJ picks Sumudaerji, citing his length as an X-factor and his momentum from recent evolution. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense has improved significantly, and his striking at range will cause problems for Perez. AJ thinks Perez will have to resort to wrestling, which won't be easy. He predicts Sumudaerji's technicality will lead to a decision win, outstriking Perez and quieting the grappling flaw narrative.

Sumudaerji at +120; Sumudaerji decision
"I think Sumudaerji's length is an X factor. Also, Sumudaerji's momentum is an X factor. We've seen an evolution from Sumudaerji to the guy that couldn't really stop the grappling onslaught to the guy hitting takedowns on Jesus Aguilar."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

AJ picks Sumudaerji, citing his southpaw stance, clean boxing, distance management, and improved wrestling defense. He thinks Perez's calf kicks are neutralized by the stance switch, and Perez may have weight-cut issues. AJ expects Sumudaerji to win a decision in China, using his reach and precision to outpoint Perez.

"I just got a feeling it's Sum Dargi's time now. I'm going to pick Sum Dargi to get it done. ... Sumudarji's striking is different. He's a southpaw with a very clean one-two, with very good footwork, with very good …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez, believing he is the better overall fighter with more power, better footwork, and higher fight IQ. He acknowledges that Sumudaerji has speed and volume, but thinks Perez's experience against top competition and his striking advantage will be the difference. He considers the odds appropriate.

"Alex Perez is the pick. I say higher fight IQ, but this is a [ __ ] who is about to win a fight as an underdog."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez because he is the better fighter with power and footwork. He notes that Perez has fought a murderer's row and is coming off a knockout win. He thinks the power will be the difference, but he is not betting on the fight.

"I think Alex win this fight. I'm going to pick him to win here. I'm not going to bet on him here though."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez, arguing that Perez's losses are to elite fighters (Figueiredo, Pantoja, etc.) and that he is a very good fighter. He expects Perez to win a decision, though he notes Perez may not score enough for DraftKings.

decision win expected; not in DraftKings lineup
"Alex Perez is going to be the pick. Alex Perez scores like He's not going to knock out Sumergy. He's not going to score a gazillion points. I think Alex Perez just wins a decision here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Big Brady picks Alex Perez by second-round submission, citing Perez's wrestling advantage and Sumudaerji's poor durability and grappling. He notes Sumudaerji's wins are weak and he has been finished six times, while Perez has lost only to elite fighters. He believes Perez will take him down and choke him out, though he acknowledges Perez is a 'ball dropper' who has lost to top competition.

second round submission
"Give me Perez to win this fight by submission. I think he's going to take down Sumadargi and choke him out."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Cody leans Sumudaerji due to Perez's history of injuries, weight misses, and cardio issues. He notes that Perez often fades in later rounds and has pulled out of many fights. Sumudaerji is younger, taller, and fighting in China. Cody believes if Perez doesn't finish early, Sumudaerji can take over. He is waiting for weigh-ins to decide.

Live bet Sumudaerji if fight goes past first round; Sumudaerji by decision or late finish
"What I'm leaning towards is this things being set up for Sumadiri to have a competitive first round, take over in the second, finish the deal in the third."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alex Perez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Perez. He notes that Sumudaerji is willing to attack all the time and gets submitted when taken down, while Perez is an aggressive wrestler who can exploit that. Connor also points out that Perez loses to big punchers and better grapplers, but Sumudaerji is neither. He believes this is a favorable matchup for Perez.

"I have to pick Perez."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Levi picks the underdog Sumudaerji, citing his improved grappling defense and overall game. He criticizes Perez for missing weight, quitting in fights, and being inconsistent. Levi believes Sumudaerji can pick Perez apart and possibly submit him.

Sumudaerji by submission mentioned as possible; odds: Perez -140, Sumudaerji +120
"I'm going to take the underdog here. I might take Sumu Durgy to come out here, upset Alex Perez, pick him apart."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Jacob picks Alex Perez because he is the better fighter and Sumudaerji has not faced someone of Perez's level. He notes that Perez has wrestling and striking, while Sumudaerji's wins are against lower-level opponents. He uses a graph analogy to explain that Perez is above Sumudaerji in skill.

"I'm buying into Alex Perez. I was anti- Alex Perez. Obviously, Charles is my boy, but I was surprised with the power, the followup shots."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Lucrative James leans Alex Perez, citing his elite wrestling which should exploit Sumudaerji's grappling weakness. He notes that Perez can dominate on the ground, while Sumudaerji is a much better striker but Perez can compete there. He worries about Perez's history of mental lapses and submission losses but believes his recent frequent fighting helps his mental game. He predicts a submission win, though he is not confident and may not bet the fight.

Alex Perez via submission
"I'm picking Alex Perez in this fight. I'll say he gets it done via submission cuz Sumaji loves to get submitted."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The host loves Alex Perez in this spot, citing his continuous improvement and recent knockout win. He expects Perez to bring an aggressive striking game and possibly take the fight to the mat, finishing Sumudaerji inside the distance via knockout or submission.

inside the distance
"I love me some Perez in this spot... I think he'll be able to find that big shot to put Sumer Dargy down. And it's either going to be a club and sub or just a straightup knockout. But I …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The host picks Perez to win inside the distance, citing his aggression, durability, and improved striking. He believes Perez will crowd Sumudaerji's space and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish. He loves the minus 140 line and thinks Perez's confidence is sky-high after knocking out Charles Johnson.

I love this minus 140 number on him.
"I'm going to go Alex Perez inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Paul is torn but leans Perez skill-wise, noting that when Perez is on, he is a top-10 flyweight. However, he acknowledges Perez's mental lapses, injuries, and weight issues. Paul thinks -133 could be value if Perez shows up, but he is wary of the China factor and Sumudaerji's reach. He is not confident and may wait for weigh-ins.

Perez by submission; live bet Sumudaerji if fight goes long
"I'm ready to hurt again with Alex Perez. But something about this line stinks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The Guru picks Su Mudaerji (Sumudaerji) over Alex Perez, citing Mudaerji's length, patience, and sniping ability. He believes Mudaerji's range control and punishing jabs will neutralize Perez's pressure. He notes Mudaerji's improved wrestling and is surprised he is an underdog.

surprised he's an underdog
"I'm picking Su Mudaerji all day here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The Guru picks Perez due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Sumudaerji is a good striker with improved grappling but still vulnerable to submissions. If Perez gets takedowns, he should dominate on the ground. However, he expresses uncertainty about which version of Perez shows up and says the striking is competitive.

"I got to take Alex Perez for that reason. But at the same time, wow, come on. It's Alex Perez. You never really know what you're going to get."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The MMA Guru picks Alex Perez to win by knockout. He notes that Sumudaerji needs patient fighters who stand in front of him, but Perez is aggressive with power and offensive wrestling. He believes Perez will pressure and land big shots, knocking out Sumudaerji, who has been hurt before.

"I think Alex Perez is going to come forward. And as much as I love Sumegi, I think he's going to knock him out, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alex Perez

Zane picks Perez, noting that Sumudaerji loses to anyone with a dedicated ground game, and Perez has the wrestling and grappling to take him down and submit him. He acknowledges that Perez has a history of getting annihilated suddenly, but Sumudaerji is not a violent finisher and doesn't have the power to do that. Zane also mentions that Sumudaerji's win over Jesus Aguilar was against a gimmick fighter with short arms, not a well-rounded opponent.

"I have to pick Perez. This doesn't feel like the kind of fight that he gets annihilated in."
WIN vs Jesus Aguilar
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sumudaerji 0 62 of 148 41% 69 of 156 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:36
Jesus Aguilar 0 31 of 106 29% 42 of 120 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sumudaerji 0 16 of 44 36% 19 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Jesus Aguilar 0 13 of 35 37% 16 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
2 Sumudaerji 0 17 of 47 36% 19 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:22
Jesus Aguilar 0 6 of 27 22% 10 of 34 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Sumudaerji 0 29 of 57 50% 31 of 59 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:01
Jesus Aguilar 0 12 of 44 27% 16 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sumudaerji 62 of 148 41% 44 of 116 11 of 23 7 of 9 55 of 141 3 of 3 4 of 4
Jesus Aguilar 31 of 106 29% 12 of 63 8 of 24 11 of 19 30 of 105 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sumudaerji 16 of 44 36% 10 of 34 1 of 3 5 of 7 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jesus Aguilar 13 of 35 37% 4 of 19 4 of 6 5 of 10 12 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sumudaerji 17 of 47 36% 9 of 32 6 of 13 2 of 2 14 of 44 0 of 0 3 of 3
Jesus Aguilar 6 of 27 22% 1 of 14 1 of 9 4 of 4 6 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sumudaerji 29 of 57 50% 25 of 50 4 of 7 0 of 0 25 of 53 3 of 3 1 of 1
Jesus Aguilar 12 of 44 27% 7 of 30 3 of 9 2 of 5 12 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jesus Santos Aguilar vs. Su Mudaerji
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mudaerji (-278), Aguilar (+225)

Round 1
The early prelims wrap up with a classic matchup of China vs. Mexico in the flyweight division, as two men trying to build momentum in the currently logjammed division fight it out. Mudaerji (18-7, 5-4 UFC) finds himself on a win streak, while Aguilar (12-3, 4-2 UFC) did get his hand raised in his last time out as well. Gloves are touched before they are traded, with referee Chris Tognoni standing by.
Mudaerji, with a huge reach advantage, looks to take advantage of it with long kicks and even a spinning kick. Aguilar ducks the kicks and crowds his foe with an overhand right, but Mudaerji is out of the way in time. Mudaerji chops at the front leg of his opponent and sways past the looping counters, with Aguilar putting thunder into his hurls that have not connected yet. Mudaerji jams him up with a jump knee that bangs hard into the guard, and Aguilar grabs hold of the lead leg to take the fight down. Mudaerji puts his back to the fence to keep himself upright, and Aguilar grabs the fence to maintain position. Aguilar grinds but cannot get the takedown, and Mudaerji manages to wriggle out and stick out a left hand. When Mudaerji offers out a low kick, Aguilar grabs his cup and Tognoni calls time. They do not need long before resuming, as Aguilar wants to get right back into the thick of it.
Mudaerji walks Aguilar down and boots him in the face, strafing back to not get taken down in response. Mudaerji spins with a wheel kick that pounds into the guard, and Aguilar tanks it and winds up to throw haymakers that only end up with him off-balance. Mudaerji potshots with his range advantage, allowing Aguilar to charge him so that he can peck away. Aguilar scores at the end of a right hand, but his lands are few and far between as he struggles to find his distance. Mudaerji leans back to watch a spinning kick soar past him, and he chews up the front leg with his kicks. Mudaerji splits the guard with a left hand, and Aguilar rushes towards him to take the fight down but falls victim to a counter throw. Mudaerji climbs on top with 25 seconds to go, landing a strike or two while backing off to stop a counter takedown. Both men stand up, and Aguilar charges recklessly to partially land a few blows before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 2
Aguilar is all smiles between rounds, pacing back and forth until he can go after the taller man again. They touch gloves, and he backs off rather than engaging. This allows Mudaerji to pick and poke away with jabs, follow-up left hands and kicks to anywhere he feels like striking. Aguilar is miles away from getting to him on the counter, and Mudaerji keeps him guessing by cracking him with check right hooks. Aguilar gets off a single inside low kick, but it is one-and-done as Mudaerji revs up his volume again. Aguilar tries to take the fight down, and the Team Alpha Male rep chucks him to the floor like a side of beef. Mudaerji thwarts the sweep attempts to keep Aguilar on his back, smacking him with the occasional offensive burst but otherwise sticking the shorter man on his back.
Aguilar looks for butterfly hooks in hopes of pushing Mudaerji off of him, and he hacks with elbows off his back to stay busy. Mudaerji gets pushed off just enough so that Aguilar can explode back to his feet, where the Mexican gets to chasing the lanky flyweight down and missing with winging hooks. Mudaerji is easily able to parry and stick him with straight lefts and jabs, and he just misses on an intercepting uppercut. Mudaerji backs off Aguilar with his punches and plants a knee on the jaw, and he tries to follow with a head kick and stumbles. Mudaerji climbs back up and is chased down, and he grabs hold of Aguilar’s ankle and pulls him to the floor as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 3
A glove touch opens the final round, with Mudaerji standing firm and putting punches on the Mexican athlete right out of the gate. Aguilar strikes back, but his momentum is used against him as Mudaerji throws him to his back. Mudaerji lashes out with an elbow and nearly gets a back take while Aguilar scrambles, and he sweeps the leg to set Aguilar back down again. Aguilar hacks with elbows to the side of the head, leading to Mudaerji stepping over to sit on his face. Aguilar scrambles to his knees, and Mudaerji gladly takes his back and sucks him back down to the floor. Mudaerji ends up sliding off the back as he does not have a hook in, and Aguilar gets back to his feet and breaks off to belt Mudaerji in the face with a right hand. Mudaerji backs off, and Aguilar lines up another. Mudaerji gets some space, and he rifles off a left hand that makes Aguilar take a quick count of his teeth. Aguilar is swinging for the fences, and while he has found his range to a degree, Mudaerji is still able to shoulder-roll or otherwise take most of the sting out of the blows.
Mudaerji dances away from a low kick and lets loose a knee, but this is poorly timed as Aguilar tackles him to the mat. Mudaerji wraps up Aguilar’s shoulder to work himself upright, and he pushes Aguilar back and rushes to his preferred range. Mudaerji stabs a kick to the body and pops Aguilar with a combination, with Aguilar relying on head movement as his hands are low. Aguilar crowds his way forward to tie the Chinese athlete up, and Mudaerji answers with standing tomahawk elbows to the mouth. Mudaerji frames off with an elbow to the jaw, and he slashes open the bridge of the nose and spins with a flush kick to the body. Aguilar bites down on his mouthpiece and swings with everything he has, and Mudaerji decides to engage him in a slugfest. Mudaerji busts up Aguilar and eats some shots on the way back, and Aguilar stumbles and regathers himself to trade leather right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)

The Official Result
Su Mudaerji def. Jesus Santos Aguilar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

Angelo acknowledges that Sumudaerji is the better striker with laser accuracy, but Jesus is gritty and tough. He notes Jesus has a clear grappling advantage but his takedowns are poor. He goes with his gut, picking the dog Jesus to make it ugly and stay in Sumudaerji's face, negating his footwork.

"Aguilar is going to be the pick, at least for now. I like the dog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

Big Brady picks Jesús Santos Aguilar as an underdog over Sumudaerji. He notes Sumudaerji is a good striker with a 4-inch height and 9.5-inch reach advantage, but has been submitted six times and can be hurt. Aguilar has improved striking, good wrestling (1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes), and next-level durability. Brady believes Aguilar can get the fight to the ground and submit Sumudaerji, predicting a third-round submission.

Aguilar by third round submission
"I'm leaning Aguular here as a dog. I think the game plan is is there and the game plan is to get this fight down to the ground and test this guy's grappling."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Cody also picks Sumudaerji, highlighting his length and striking. He notes Aguilar's difficulty closing distance and lack of wrestling. He expects Sumudaerji to win by decision or knockout.

"Sumaji for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sumudaerji

Connor picks Sumudaerji hesitantly, citing his significant height and reach advantage. He notes that Aguilar is a submission threat and that Sumudaerji has been submitted six times due to his aggressive grappling. However, he believes Sumudaerji can win at range and that Aguilar's style is less effective against a long fighter.

"I think I have to pick Sumo Darje here, but it is notable that Aguilar just keeps surprising me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

Daniel Vreeland picks Jesús Santos Aguilar as a plus-230 underdog, citing Sumudaerji's history of being submitted and Aguilar's opportunistic guillotine. He believes Aguilar can make the fight dirty and drag Sumudaerji into a grappling exchange. Vreeland acknowledges Sumudaerji's striking advantage but sees value on the dog.

"I'm gonna come out here and pick Jesus Aguilar to get this big upset."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The host believes Sumudaerji should win easily due to his rapid improvement, technical striking, length advantage, and improved takedown defense. Aguilar is smaller, one-dimensional on the feet, and Sumudaerji should keep the fight standing and light him up. The host is considering using Sumudaerji in a parlay but notes he already has a big bet on Max Holloway.

Host says Sumudaerji is safe for parlays and accumulators. Implied probability 71%.
"Sumudaerji should light Aguilar up on the feet and neutralize the threat of Aguilar's grappling."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

James picks Sumudaerji, citing his higher level of competition and superior striking. He believes Sumudaerji's accuracy and sharpness will outpoint Aguilar, who relies on power and guillotine submissions. James notes that Aguilar's path to victory is narrow, requiring a takedown and guillotine, which Sumudaerji is prepared to defend. He predicts a decision win for Sumudaerji.

"I'm picking Sue to win this fight. I'm picking Sue to win it via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Sumudaerji is a superior striker with a 10-inch reach advantage. He can stick and move, counter Aguilar effectively, and defend takedowns. Aguilar will struggle to close distance and likely lose a decision. Sumudaerji by decision at +210 is a good prop, and he's a solid parlay piece.

Sumudaerji by decision at +210; parlay piece
"I think Sumodargi wins here. I think he picks apart Aguilar pretty convincingly. I think he wins on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Paul picks Sumudaerji, citing his reach advantage and improved takedown defense. He notes Aguilar's wins are over low-level opponents. He expects Sumudaerji to keep the fight at range and win by striking.

"I like Sue here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji, citing his reach and height advantage. He notes Sumudaerji's ability to outstrike at range and his recent win over Mitropoulos. He believes Aguilar lacks the finishing power to trouble Sumudaerji, predicting a decision win.

decision
"Suma Deri should really technically outstrike him at range here to a decision. 2928 30-27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

Zane picks Aguilar as a lean, noting that Aguilar keeps surprising him by winning fights he seems to be losing. He highlights Aguilar's athleticism and ability to scramble out of bad positions. He is concerned about Sumudaerji's reach but thinks Aguilar's physicality and submission threat could be decisive.

"I'm going to pick Aguilar just for the hell of it. Yeah. Why not? I guess he keeps surprising me, you know, tons of these fights."
WIN vs Kevin Borjas
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sumudaerji 0 73 of 129 56% 91 of 150 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:17
Kevin Borjas 0 16 of 44 36% 23 of 51 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sumudaerji 0 17 of 35 48% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
2 Sumudaerji 0 32 of 47 68% 36 of 51 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Kevin Borjas 0 9 of 20 45% 15 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
3 Sumudaerji 0 24 of 47 51% 38 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sumudaerji 73 of 129 56% 33 of 75 17 of 25 23 of 29 67 of 121 6 of 8 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 16 of 44 36% 7 of 30 5 of 7 4 of 7 10 of 37 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sumudaerji 17 of 35 48% 6 of 15 3 of 9 8 of 11 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 3 of 13 23% 1 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 3 1 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Sumudaerji 32 of 47 68% 14 of 25 7 of 8 11 of 14 30 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Sumudaerji 24 of 47 51% 13 of 35 7 of 8 4 of 4 21 of 43 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Su Mudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas

Round 1
Flyweights Sumudaerji and Borjas face off under the watchful eye of referee Vitor Ribeiro. Borjas is orthodox, Sumudaerji southpaw. “The Tibetan Eagle” throws a lunging side kick to the midsection. He follows up with a solid inside kick to Borjas’ lead leg. Sumudaerji with a high kick that slaps off his opponent’s raised guard. A minute and a half in, Borjas has thrown next to no strikes. Sumudaerji flicks out a long jab. Ribeiro pauses the action and cautions Sumudaerji about extending his fingers. They go back to work and Sumudaerji lands a loud low kick. Borjas comes back with a jab that glances, then changes levels and runs his man all the way to the cage. Borjas locks his hands and tries to elevate the taller man, but Sumudaerji uses an overhook/underhook and his height advantage to keep his feet firmly under him. They break off the clinch and go back to work in the middle of the cage, where Borjas continues to struggle with the range against the much taller man. Sumudaerji backs Borjas off with a side kick to the midsection at the 10-second clapper, then a pair of spinning back kicks—one from each side—right before the horn. Neither lands with much impact, but the impression is that Sumudaerji is starting to get into a flow.
10-9 Mudaerji.

Round 2
Sumudaerji paws Borjas’ face with an open hand in the first real exchange of the round, leading the Peruvian to back away blinking. Referee Ribeiro reiterates his warning, this time making it a “hard” one, for whatever that’s worth, before letting them go back to work. Sumudaerji reaches out with long side kicks again, landing to Borjas’ body, where they do their damage, but just as importantly, keep Borjas from getting anywhere near punching range. Borjas surges forward, clinches and shoves the taller man to the fence, where he is unable either to secure a takedown or land any short-range offense. They separate and return to open space, but Sumudaerji is still very much in control of the action there. Borjas lowers his head again and drives Sumudaerji to the cage, but “The Tibetan Eagle” uses an underhook to force a stalemate there. They disengage once again and Sumudaerji goes right back to working the Peruvian’s legs and body with his kicks. Under a minute to go and Sumudaerji opens up with a spinning back kick that lands to the midsection. The horn sounds on another frustrating round for “El Gallo Negro.”
10-9 Mudaerji.

Round 3
Borjas comes out aggressively to enter the final frame, forcing the issue rather than be stranded on the outside for yet another five minutes. Sumudaerji responds with a reactive takedown attempt which goes nowhere, but perhaps gives Borjas something else to think about. Borjas continues on the front foot, backing Sumudaerji to the fence, where he briefly sits him down with a clean punch. The Tibetan smiles and motions that it was a slip, which seems to fit the visual evidence, and they return to kickboxing. Sumudaerji throws a spinning wheel kick that glances without damage, and Borjas collapses the distance, clinching and shoving him to the fence. The referee separates them after a few uneventful moments, and they meet once again near the center of the cage, where Sumudaerji has thus far been an unsolvable riddle. Borjas steps inside a spinning technique, nearly takes Sumudaerji’s back standing, but settles for pushing him to the fence yet again. Under a minute to go and Borjas’ corner is imploring him to do something big. He tries his best, but only succeeds in opening up an opportunity for his foe to land a big elbow. That turns out to be the last significant offense of the fight, as the horn sounds moments later on a methodical near shutout for the Chinese fighter.
10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji).

The Official Result
Su Mudaerji def. Kevin Borjas via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Angelo picks Kevin Borjas as the dog, calling him the better striker and more dangerous and durable. He notes that Sumudaerji is fast and accurate but lacks power. He suggests prop bets like win inside distance or plus 3.5 rounds, as he doesn't see Borjas getting stopped. He is confident in Borjas winning.

Suggests betting on Kevin Borjas win inside distance (decision no action) or plus 3.5 rounds.
"I'm going with the dog here. I think Kevin's the better striker and this is mostly going to be a striking matchup. Not only is Kevin the better striker, he's also the more dangerous of the two and the more …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Big Brady picks Kevin Borjas to win a damage-based decision, despite Sumudaerji being a good striker. He notes that Sumudaerji has been submitted six times and has looked rough recently, but Borjas is not a grappler. He believes Borjas has power and can land big shots, and that Sumudaerji is not a finisher at this level. He expects a close fight with Borjas having big moments.

Borjas by decision
"I'm going to take Borhos to to win the fight here by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Connor likes Borjas's game and thinks he will dictate the pace, forcing Sumudaerji to brawl. He notes that Sumudaerji tends to let opponents lead and then engages, but Borjas is a backfoot counter puncher who will likely start first. Connor worries about Borjas's defensive acumen and high chin, but believes Sumudaerji lacks knockout power, having only finished Malcolm Gordon in the UFC. He compares the fight to Sumudaerji's loss to Charles Johnson, where Johnson set the early pace and won.

"I really like borjas's game. I think sumudarji is a really interesting test for him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The host acknowledges Borjas looked his best last time, but thinks he will struggle against the superior striking of Sumudaerji. He expects Sumudaerji to keep Borjas at bay, avoid counter-strikes, pick him apart, and win on the scorecards.

"I think he's going to struggle against the superior striking of Sumodargi. Look for Sumodargi to keep Borhas at bay, avoid most of the counter-strikes of Boras, pick him apart, and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sumudaerji

The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji to win by decision, citing his range and ability to make fights low-output. He believes Sumudaerji's length will be a problem for Kevin Borjas, who he describes as a one-two merchant. He notes that Borjas had a close fight with Ronaldo Rodriguez, and that Sumudaerji looked good against Charles Johnson. He expects a 30-27 schooling victory.

Sumudaerji by decision 30-27
"I'm going to go with Summedi. I think his range is going to be a problem for Kevin Bas... I think Sumaduji is going to rise to the occasion and beat Kevin Bouras."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Borjas has shown good stuff in his fights and that Sumudaerji is a technical step up but not a huge one. He points out that Sumudaerji is tough but often starts fights going second, which could allow Borjas to take control. Zane also mentions that Borjas has never been knocked out and took shots from Ronaldo Rodriguez well, so Sumudaerji's lack of power is a factor.

"I think if he lets borjas start it then borjas is just gonna keep it."
WIN vs Mitch Raposo
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sumudaerji 0 45 of 114 39% 78 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 30 6 of 19 31% 0 0 4:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sumudaerji 0 11 of 30 36% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 15 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:05
2 Sumudaerji 0 14 of 39 35% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:16
3 Sumudaerji 0 20 of 45 44% 44 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 2 of 9 22% 3 of 10 3 of 6 50% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sumudaerji 45 of 114 39% 25 of 84 5 of 8 15 of 22 39 of 104 6 of 10 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 9 of 26 34% 8 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sumudaerji 11 of 30 36% 5 of 18 1 of 3 5 of 9 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sumudaerji 14 of 39 35% 6 of 27 1 of 2 7 of 10 14 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sumudaerji 20 of 45 44% 14 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 14 of 36 6 of 9 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Su Mudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mudaerji (-185), Raposo (+154)

Round 1
The lone flyweight contest of the evening plays out next, between two men who could reach a .500 UFC record should they prevail. Mudaerji (16-7, 3-4 UFC), the far more experienced fighter of the two, is aiming to notch his first win since 2021. Massachusetts native Raposo (9-2, 0-1 UFC) would like to spoil that party and hand his Chinese opponent his walking papers, and referee Andrew Glenn will be there every step of the way. Gloves are touched before they are traded, and chants of “USA” in favor of Raposo rain down in the building. Mudaerji takes the center of the cage and fights behind his jab, using his superior reach to poke and prod. Raposo closes the distance and connects with a series of punches before bouncing away to avoid the counter. Mudaerji misses the mark on a one-two, and Raposo zings him back with a trio of fists. Mudaerji pitches out low kicks, frustrating the New Englander into shooting on his hips. Mudaerji defends with his back against the wall and breaks free, and he reaches out with an inaccurate side kick. Mudaerji lets fly a high kick that bounces off the guard, and he skirts out of the way of a looping left hand. Raposo surges forward swinging his arms, and Mudaerji’s range gives him issues as he kicks him from far enough away to not get caught back. Mudaerji thumps up the lead leg with a kick that forces a stance switch, and Raposo sprints forward and takes Mudaerji off his feet with a tackling takedown. Mudaerji easily posts off the mat to stand back up, and he Granby rolls to attempt to escape. Raposo follows him, arms wrapped around the waist from behind, and he leans Mudaerji against the wire and starts kneeing him. Raposo hangs on to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves, and Raposo quickly gets on his bike to strafe laterally and find a way in. Mudaerji chips at him with leg kicks, aiming at the thigh and knee rather than the calf. Raposo’s leg shows welts all over it, and he struggles to fire back. Although Mudaerji beats him to the punch with a one-two, Raposo’s right hand grazes the cheek in response. Raposo shoots in for a double-leg takedown, and Mudaerji scoots his way to the wire to defend and break out of it. Mudaerji pokes out with a jab and a low kick, and the crowd starts to shower the fighters with boos at the perceived lack of activity. Raposo tries to answer their calls for action with a looping left hand, and Mudaerji snipes him with a one-two and leans back to avoid another big left. Mudaerji flies by his opponent when attempting a jump knee, and he lands and kicks the front leg only to get checked. Mudaerji stumbles back and points at Raposo, and then offers a few more kicks. When Mudaerji misses a spinning wheel kick by a matter of inches, Raposo’s eyes light up as he charges like a bull and takes Mudaerji clear off his feet with a takedown. The Chinese fighter climbs back to his feet, only to be met with a mat return. As he gets up again, Mudaerji breaks off and flashes out a jab. The jab quickly bloodies Raposo’s nose up, who shoots for a single-leg takedown and finds the taller, longer fighter able to easily stifle his shot. Raposo doggedly pursues the takedown, and Mudaerji’s balance holds up until the horn blares. The crowd is not amused.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 3
Hands are clapped to begin the final frame, and Mudaerji reassumes Octagon control and uses his rangy punches and kicks to keep Raposo at bay. Raposo presses forward to unload a big right hand, and Mudaerji pushes him back with jabs that further bloody the Massachusetts native’s nose up. Raposo moves left and right, with Mudaerji chasing him around, and Glenn has to ask for them to fight because they do not engage with much in the first 90 seconds. When they throw, they are largely out of range, with Mudaerji the more accurate of the two. As he reaches out with a right hand, Raposo shoots in on his hips and dumps him to the mat. Mudaerji wall-walks to get back up easily, elbowing on the break and returning to his kickboxing approach. When Raposo leans and sways, Mudaerji times him with a combination. Mudaerji kicks low, and Raposo signals that he was kicked in the groin. Glenn calls time, and the crowd boos in disbelief that it was a foul. The replay shows it was a legal blow, and Glenn tells them to fight on. Fight on they do, with Mudaerji letting his hands go for a second while Raposo throws back hard—but misses. Raposo grapples Mudaerji to the mat, and Mudaerji bounces back to his feet as if he had springs in his seat. Raposo leans heavily when clinched up, hoping to take some of the weapons away from the “Tibetan Eagle,” and he hunts for a mat return and drags Mudaerji to a knee. Mudaerji returns upright and smacks Raposo from around his head, and he brilliantly sprawls to shut Raposo’s attempt down. Raposo gains a full head of steam and charges in, completing a double only to learn very quickly that Mudaerji does not stay down for even one second. Raposo clings tightly looking for wrestling, and Mudaerji elbows him in the face three times until the less-than-stellar matchup comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)

The Official Result
Su Mudaerji def. Mitch Raposo via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sumudaerji

Connor also picks Sumudaerji, agreeing that Raposo is not experienced enough for this fight. He notes that Sumudaerji is always fun to watch and will go for it if he knows he's losing. Connor has very little confidence in the pick but leans toward Sumudaerji.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Why not take Sumu Darji? I'd like to see the guy get a win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Sumudaerji

Daniel Levi questions how Mitch Raposo lost every round against Sumudaerji yet still got a split decision. He implies Sumudaerji clearly won, expressing confusion about the judging.

"How does Mitch Raposo lose every round against Sumu Deer? Maybe win one round if you want to be nice and they still a split decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sumudaerji

Zane picks Sumudaerji, believing Mitch Raposo is too patient and inexperienced, and will give away a winnable fight. He notes that Sumudaerji has better output and understands how to use his reach, while Raposo is a slow-paced power striker who waits too long. Zane acknowledges Sumudaerji's grappling vulnerabilities but thinks Raposo won't exploit them effectively.

Sumudaerji opened at -215, now -170; Raposo opened at +177, now +151. Zane is surprised Sumudaerji is the favorite.
"I think I'll take Sumu Darji actually."
LOSS vs Charles Johnson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 65 of 150 43% 84 of 177 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:58
Sumudaerji 0 75 of 144 52% 78 of 149 0 of 3 0% 2 1 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 50 38% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
Sumudaerji 0 24 of 43 55% 24 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 60 50% 34 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:03
Sumudaerji 0 23 of 44 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:30
3 Charles Johnson 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Sumudaerji 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 65 of 150 43% 42 of 113 15 of 22 8 of 15 49 of 123 5 of 10 11 of 17
Sumudaerji 75 of 144 52% 41 of 96 7 of 15 27 of 33 68 of 135 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 19 of 50 38% 12 of 42 5 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 44 3 of 6 0 of 0
Sumudaerji 24 of 43 55% 12 of 26 2 of 3 10 of 14 20 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 60 50% 20 of 41 5 of 11 5 of 8 19 of 43 0 of 0 11 of 17
Sumudaerji 23 of 44 52% 15 of 32 2 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 16 of 40 40% 10 of 30 5 of 6 1 of 4 14 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
Sumudaerji 28 of 57 49% 14 of 38 3 of 7 11 of 12 26 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Su Mudaerji
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-225), Mudaerji (+185)

Round 1
Once with his back firmly against the wall, Johnson (16-6, 5-4 UFC) has given himself plenty of breathing room with a three-fight win streak. While he has plenty of momentum on his side, the matchmaking results him in facing Mudaerji (16-6, 3-3 UFC), who has lost his last two. Whether fortune continues to smile on “InnerG” or the Chinese fighter gets back in the win column, referee Mark Smith will be there for it every step of the way. Fists are bumped, and Johnson walks through a leg kick to immediately swarm Mudaerji with a flurry of fists. Johnson pressures Mudaerji up to and against the wall, kneeing him when they tie up. Johnson lifts knees to the gut while “The Tibetan Eagle” is pinned against it, and Mudaerji tries to get away and ultimately wrenches his way out and raps a right hand on the side of Johnson’s dome. Johnson shakes it off and plods forward, absorbing a few punches and a flush calf kick so he can charge in with his own offense. Johnson misses his strikes, dodges a low kick and keeps marching forward. Mudaerji sticks his man with a calf kick and jabs him to mix things up, and Johnson preemptively picks his leg up after these kicks start to add up. Mudaerji goes on the inside with two kicks, and Johnson sits down on a right hook to drive Mudaerji back. Mudaerji steps in with an elbow, and he flicks out a few jabs and splits the guard with a left. Mudaerji batters the front leg with a kick, and Johnson eats a jab and drops his hands to reset. Johnson checks a kick when crashing the pocket, and he loads up on power punches to the body. Johnson ties him up, and he knees his man in the chest and thighs while Mudaerji is warned for grabbing inside the glove. Mudaerji lashes out with an elbow to break, and he keeps his volume high by picking jabs and low kicks from his preferred range. Johnson crowds his man and unleashes a big right hand, only to get pulled into a Thai clinch and a sharp knee on the chin. Johnson frantically chases after his opponent, loading on up big strikes and forcing Mudaerji to ricochet off the fencing. Mudaerji dodges and weaves the worst of the attacks coming his way, and Johnson backs him against the wall and loads up on him. Johnson lets him have it until the bell sounds mid-exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to get going in the second stanza, and Johnson dashes out of his corner to engage. Mudaerji is prepared to defend the initial blitz, succeeding in staving off the most threatening of the strikes. Mudaerji keeps shifting and moving actively, occasionally getting backed to the wall but never truly cornered. Mudaerji catches Johnson coming in with a right hand, and he scores two low kicks before Johnson can get to him. Johnson goes high with a kick that bounces off the guard, and he stomps the knee with his foot twice. Mudaerji shifts to the left to tag Johnson with a straight strike, and he flicks out a front-leg side kick and a number of punches to follow. Mudaerji wings big right hands that land behind the head, and he stumbles Johnson coming forward thanks to a low kick. Johnson finds his range with a left hook, but it is one-and-done as Mudaerji keeps moving and did not take the brunt of it. Mudaerji lines up a left hook around the guard, and Johnson barely blocks it in time. Mudaerji intercepts Johnson coming in once more, with Johnson leaving his hands low after throwing big. Johnson runs forward, hands by his side, and he jacks Mudaerji in the jaw with a vicious right hand. Mudaerji tries to escape, but Johnson is a dog with a bone chasing after him. Johnson backs Mudaerji to the fence and uppercuts him so hard, Mudaerji’s head snaps back like a Pez dispenser. Johnson lays into his opponent with a long barrage of punches, hurting Mudaerji badly and putting him down. Johnson tries to finish the job, swinging his way into the guard, where Mudaerji manages to survive and circle around to threaten with a triangle that transitions into an armbar. Johnson fights through it, gets put on his back, fights back up and somehow puts Mudaerji on the mat. Mudaerji sweeps him as soon as his seat hits the floor, and a mad exchange of grappling magic ensues until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 3
The third round kicks off with Mudaerji tough as nails ready and willing to trade. Mudaerji sticks out two front kicks, spins with a wheel kick and smashes it on the side of Johnson’s dome. The forward pressure of Mudaerji allows him to trip Johnson up, and he slams the American to the mat. Johnson jumps back up and meanders forward, checking kicks but otherwise breathing hard and not striking. Mudaerji splits the guard with a left hand, potshotting Johnson coming forward while Johnson’s offense is practically nonexistent. Johnson grits his teeth after taking a few jabs to plow forward with telegraphed hooks, and the Chinese fighter sees them coming from a mile away. Johnson slings a right to open up a straight left, and the latter catches Mudaerji on the chin. Mudaerji chops his front leg back a few times, and he turns his hips into a body kick and then resets to land one more to the inner calf of “InnerG.” Johnson stalks Mudaerji down, walking through strikes but taking more than he is landing back. Johnson’s pressure results in a brief clinch, and Mudaerji fights his way out of it and just misses with a head kick. Mudaerji times a level change when Johnson wings a right hand, and Johnson reverses him with a throw to put “The Tibetan Eagle” on his back. Mudaerji scrambles wildly to get to his feet, and he breaks away from a clinch with an overhand right. Mudaerji puts three punches on the chin as Johnson shoots for a takedown, and he sets up a brabo choke to hurl Johnson to his knees. Johnson fights the hands to break up the submission, and he drops to one knee so he does not absorb a knee from the Chinese fighter. Johnson and Mudaerji swing it out right to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Su Mudaerji via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo is very confident in Charles Johnson, citing his high output, technical striking, and ability to maintain pace for 15 minutes. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense is untested (only one takedown attempt in UFC) and that Johnson has survived tough moments before. He expects Johnson to pressure forward, be the cleaner striker, and take over as the fight goes on. He also mentions Johnson's activity and recent success.

"Charles is the pick I am very confident in that pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson by second-round submission. He highlights Sumudaerji's poor takedown defense and six submission losses. Johnson has good wrestling and submission attempts, though no UFC submission wins. He warns that if Johnson strikes, it's a different fight, but expects him to mix in takedowns and submit Sumudaerji.

second round submission
"I'm going to Charles Johnson give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson as a craftsman who should handle Sumudaerji's straightforward style. He notes that Sumudaerji lacks footwork to be a true sniper and that Johnson is durable and calculating. He expects Johnson to get on his front foot and take over in round two.

"I'd expect to see Johnson start to get on his front foot and really take over in round two"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Both are strikers, but Johnson has a better gas tank, better discipline striking, and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from Sumudaerji's power. Johnson will chip away and win by decision or get a late finish.

"Johnson the better gas tank better discipline striking and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from the big Power of sumod darji allowing Johnson to chip away at sumod dargi either win this fight by decision or …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson despite not liking him personally, citing Johnson's recent momentum and wins over Joshua Van and Jake Hadley. He criticizes Sumudaerji's lack of power and relevant wins, noting he was dominated by Tim Elliott and struggled against Matt Schnell. He believes Johnson can take the fight to the ground if needed and predicts a later-rounds finish.

later rounds finish
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, expecting him to calculate and counter Sumudaerji's linear, lunging strikes. He notes that Sumudaerji is a one-track fighter who backs straight out after throwing, and Johnson's durability and craftiness should allow him to take over in round two. He acknowledges that Johnson might be lackadaisical against a less dangerous opponent.

Sumudaerji opened +176, now +187; Johnson opened -201, now -216; odds feel right
"I think Charles Johnson can find the counters to those strikes"
LOSS vs Tim Elliott
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:02 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Elliott 0 10 of 21 47% 26 of 37 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:05
Sumudaerji 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Elliott 0 10 of 21 47% 26 of 37 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:05
Sumudaerji 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Elliott 10 of 21 47% 6 of 13 0 of 1 4 of 7 8 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 1
Sumudaerji 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Elliott 10 of 21 47% 6 of 13 0 of 1 4 of 7 8 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 1
Sumudaerji 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tim Elliott vs. Su Mudaerji
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-165), Mudarji (+135)

Round 1
Stepping up a few days ago to replace Allan Nascimento, former flyweight title challenger Elliott (19-13-1, 8-11 UFC) pops into this now-bantamweight bash with Mudaerji (16-5, 3-2 UFC). This scrap that could—and very well may—take place anywhere will be overseen by referee Herb Dean, and he is ready for what comes next. The fighters touch ‘em up, and Elliott somersaults his way in to kick Mudaerji. Mudaerji shrugs it off, and Elliott keeps his knee up high to fluster his opponent. Mudaerji tries to pick off the veteran from range, and he gets in long strikes every so often to get Elliott’s attention. Mudaerji stays composed and does not fall for many of the awkward movements from Elliott, and he picks his shots carefully and stings Elliott with a right hand. Mudaerji boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott grabs hold of the leg and tries to take him down. Mudaerji keeps his balance, but he gets clipped with a right hook when setting it down. Mudaerji connects with a clean left hand, and he strings several punches together until Elliott charges at him to go after a single. Elliott lifts Mudaerji’s leg above his head and elbows the Chinese fighter in the face, and he trips Mudaerji up and tosses him to the canvas. Elliott slithers his way over to half guard as he grinds on Mudaerji with elbows, and he draws blood as Mudaerji turns to his side. Elliott keeps his arm around Mudaerji’s head to threaten with a potential submission should Mudaerji sit up, and Elliott drills him with an elbow.
Elliott leaps over to the other side and locks down an arm-triangle choke, and the choke is instantly in and tight. Elliott presses down his full body weight, and blood sprays from Mudaerji’s mouth in a brutal, cinematic moment as Mudaerji loses consciousness.
Dean recognizes that Mudaerji is done, checking the arm of “Tibetan Eagle” and seeing there is no resistance, and he yanks Elliot off of the unconscious fighter. This is a great feather in the cap of the veteran, who earns his first finish since December 2017 with the technical submission.

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Su Mudaerji R1 4:02 via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Cody picks Sumudaerji because he doubts Tim Elliott's conditioning. He notes that Elliott took the fight on three days' notice and has only trained twice. Cody thinks Elliott's cardio is already suspect and will fade quickly. He believes Sumudaerji has a good left hand and can capitalize if Elliott tires. Cody suggests this is a better live bet opportunity, but for a pre-fight pick, he goes with Sumudaerji.

Live bet Sumudaerji if it gets out of the first round
"I'm gonna take suad deri suad deri's got to be he's got to have some size on him here too right"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)
Sumudaerji

Lucrative James acknowledges the volatility due to Elliott taking the fight on short notice after a recent grappling match. He sees a massive striking advantage for Sumudaerji and thinks he could crack Elliott. However, he notes Elliott's massive grappling edge and that Sumudaerji has been submitted in all his losses. He leans Sumudaerji but passes on betting because the line is +110 and he can't lay that with the grappling disparity. He picks Sumudaerji for the win.

"I'm picking suuji for the win I'm not betting on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Paul picks Tim Elliott but is curious about the submission prop. He notes that Elliott's wrestling and ground game are superior, and Sumudaerji has poor submission defense. Paul thinks Elliott can find a submission if he plays his cards right. He acknowledges Elliott's cardio issues but believes the grappling advantage is significant. Paul is waiting for the Elliott by submission prop to open and hopes for a price around +400 to +500.

Elliott by submission at +400 to +500 if available
"Elliott is the pick I'm curious what the price would be on Elliot by submission and maybe I'll play it if uh if the price is somewhat juicy"
LOSS vs Matt Schnell
Technical Submission (triangle choke) R2 4:24 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Schnell 0 47 of 81 58% 79 of 120 2 of 3 66% 2 1 2:40
Sumudaerji 1 58 of 83 69% 67 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 2 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Schnell 0 13 of 29 44% 27 of 46 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:03
Sumudaerji 0 19 of 23 82% 28 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:19
2 Matt Schnell 0 34 of 52 65% 52 of 74 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:37
Sumudaerji 1 39 of 60 65% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Schnell 47 of 81 58% 36 of 70 5 of 5 6 of 6 16 of 40 9 of 12 22 of 29
Sumudaerji 58 of 83 69% 37 of 61 10 of 11 11 of 11 35 of 53 13 of 19 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Schnell 13 of 29 44% 8 of 24 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 20 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sumudaerji 19 of 23 82% 5 of 9 5 of 5 9 of 9 13 of 16 0 of 0 6 of 7
2 Matt Schnell 34 of 52 65% 28 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 20 9 of 12 17 of 20
Sumudaerji 39 of 60 65% 32 of 52 5 of 6 2 of 2 22 of 37 13 of 19 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Su Mudaerji vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Su Mudaerji (-260), Schnell (+220)

Round 1
This upcoming 125-pound matchup will almost certainly give referee Jacob Montalvo a good workout with the movement that Schnell (15-6, 1 NC; 5-4, 1 NC UFC) and his Chinese counterpart Mudaerji (16-4, 3-1 UFC) employ. This fast-paced fight between finish-friendly and fleet of foot flyweights is first friendly as the fighters’ fists meet. Mudaerji starts with a chopping low kick that surprises Schnell, and it stops Schnell from landing a pair of punches he intends to smack Mudaerji with. Schnell goes after a few leg kicks of his own, and Mudaerji answers with two more. Mudaerji circles on the outside and slaps away a front kick, and he gets countered with a left hook when aiming a kick. The leg kicks continue to come, and Schnell checks one and points at his opponent. Mudaerji is not slowed from striking with these, and Schnell is having difficulty pinning him down. Schnell ducks a punch and changes levels to hit a takedown. In an instant, Schnell moves right to full mount, and he starts releasing heavy right hands and elbows. Mudaerji turns to his knees and allows Schnell to take his back. Mudaerji turns with all of his might, and he manages to move through the tight body triangle and claim top position. Mudaerji holds his hand on Schnell’s mouth to disrupt the breathing, and Schnell closes his guard tight when he cannot toss his legs up in pursuit of a triangle. Schnell bucks his opponent off of him, and Mudaerji climbs down into the guard and straight into a triangle choke. When Mudaerji moves his way out of the position, Schnell grabs the arm and shoulder to hunt for an omoplata. Mudaerji lifts Schnell all the way up and powerbombs him to break the grip, but Schnell winds up on top. “Danger” puts Schnell in the Danger Zone with vicious ground-and-pound, and he shakes Mudaerji up but takes a few hacking elbows from Mudaerji off his back. Schnell stacks Mudaerji up and scores a single punch before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Schnell

Round 2
Mudaerji comes out throwing fire, and an inside low kick slides up into Schnell’s cup. Schnell drops to a knee, and Montalvo calls time to allow him to recover for about a minute. Mudaerji is warned through a translator, and the two flyweights get back to it. They start throwing fire, and Mudaerji clips Schnell and nearly drops Schnell to his knees. Schnell gathers himself but is still off-balance, as he is taking punishment from the Chinese fighter. The left hand from Mudaerji nails Schnell, and Schnell replies with a leg kick that trips Mudaerji up. When back on his feet again, Mudaerji splits the guard with a straight left hand that stuns Schnell. Mudaerji celebrates this by firing off another, and this one puts Schnell down on the canvas. Schnell looks to turn things around with a takedown effort, but Mudaerji backs off and lets him back up so that he can continue bombing. Mudaerji rails Schnell with a brutal elbow, and Schnell is hurt badly and continues to take punishment. Mudaerji unloads with impunity, throwing punches, knees and elbows, and Schnell is bent over and very possibly out on his feet. Montalvo is watching on closely, and when Schnell is nearly at the end of his rope, he fires off a right hand that shakes Mudaerji up. Mudaerji continues to work Schnell over, and Schnell eats the strikes and counters effectively to blast Mudaerji. It is now Mudaerji who is on the rocks, and when Mudaerji overswings, Schnell takes him down and moves straight into mount. Schnell drops down an elbow, and commentator Daniel Cormier shrieks with a sound that echoes through the arena. Schnell batters Mudaerji with unanswered strikes, punching and elbowing Mudaerji’s face off, and Mudaerji is bloodied and beaten. Mudaerji somehow keeps his wits about him to flip Schnell over, but Schnell throws his legs up for a triangle choke.
Mudaerji starts slugging from on top, but danger danger, high voltage, “Danger” locks down that choke and Mudaerji is in dire trouble. Schnell slashes from his back to rip Mudaerji’s face open and cause blood to splatter all around them. Schnell adjusts the triangle choke up high, and he pulls down on the neck to completely secure it. Mudaerji is still with it and ready to keep fighting…until he isn’t anymore, as he goes out on his shield completely, blood still leaking from his now-unconscious person.
Montalvo recognizes that Mudaerji is sleeping on the job and steps in to break them up, awarding Schnell the absolutely incredible comeback and putting a stamp on what should go down as an instant contender for the best round of the year. What a terrific fight, one that went everywhere and had something for everybody. The mere write-up of this battle does not remotely do it justice, and this is a must-see match that also could be contention for “Fight of the Year” as well. Outstanding.

The Official Result
Matt Schnell def. Su Mudaerji R2 4:24 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Angelo picks Sumudaerji, citing his forward pressure and volume. He notes Schnell's counter-striking and BJJ, but believes Sumudaerji's style will impose itself. He thinks the fight should be closer than the odds suggest and considers a plus 3.5 bet on Schnell.

considers plus 3.5 bet on Schnell
"super energy is the pick but this is another this might be a solid three and a half bet again"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Big Brady picks Sumudaerji to win by knockout, likely in the second round. He states that Sumudaerji is the better striker and more durable, while Schnell has been knocked out multiple times. He notes that Schnell could win if he wrestles, but he doesn't expect Schnell to do so. He predicts a knockout finish.

knockout in round 2
"i like madaraji to win this fight by knockout um what round uh i think he does knock him out at some point here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Cody picks Schnell as an underdog, arguing that Sumudaerji's four losses are all by submission and he has not faced a grappler since his debut. He notes Schnell's improved chin and grappling, including submissions off his back. Cody believes if the fight hits the ground, Schnell has a big advantage, and the -270 line on Sumudaerji is too high given his unproven ground game.

Schnell by submission (plus 800)
"minus 270 is the thing that a younger cody would have been like he's going to knock out chanel because chelsea so chinny i would have i would have and at 270 he's probably higher up on the tickets"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Daniel Levi picks Sumudaerji, viewing it as a prospect test. He notes Sumudaerji's talent and improvements after a long layoff, while Schnell has durability issues and has been knocked out before. Levi expects Sumudaerji to win, possibly by finish, but acknowledges Schnell's guillotine threat and the question of Sumudaerji's ceiling.

possible first-round finish
"i'm gonna go sumidargi i think that this is a prospect match up where they are trying to test out sue"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Paul picks Sumudaerji, believing his power and striking will be too much for Schnell's suspect chin. He notes that Sumudaerji has knocked out opponents quickly and that Schnell has been knocked out multiple times. However, he admits the -270 line is steep and that he is not betting it himself, but he expects Sumudaerji to win by KO in the first round.

Sumudaerji by KO, Sumudaerji round 1 (plus 320)
"sumidarji sumog darjee by naco sumidairji round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji over Matt Schnell, citing Schnell's weak chin and poor submission defense. He notes Sumudaerji's elusiveness and range, and believes he will TKO Schnell in the second round. He also mentions Schnell's recent loss to Brandon Royval and his tendency to get finished in spectacular fashion.

predicts second-round TKO
"i'm going to be going with sumaduergy younger guy longer reach uses it well um i think he's got pop in his hands as well"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sumudaerji 0 50 of 127 39% 50 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zarrukh Adashev 0 28 of 123 22% 28 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sumudaerji 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zarrukh Adashev 0 7 of 36 19% 7 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sumudaerji 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zarrukh Adashev 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Sumudaerji 0 18 of 50 36% 18 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zarrukh Adashev 0 8 of 49 16% 8 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sumudaerji 50 of 127 39% 22 of 87 9 of 16 19 of 24 50 of 127 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zarrukh Adashev 28 of 123 22% 20 of 102 3 of 13 5 of 8 24 of 117 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sumudaerji 17 of 39 43% 6 of 26 2 of 2 9 of 11 17 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zarrukh Adashev 7 of 36 19% 4 of 29 1 of 4 2 of 3 7 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sumudaerji 15 of 38 39% 7 of 25 4 of 8 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zarrukh Adashev 13 of 38 34% 11 of 35 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Sumudaerji 18 of 50 36% 9 of 36 3 of 6 6 of 8 18 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zarrukh Adashev 8 of 49 16% 5 of 38 1 of 7 2 of 4 8 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Su Mudaerji vs. Zarrukh Adashev

Round 1
Back at flyweight, surging Chinese upstart Mudaerji (13-4, 2-1 UFC) steps in on short notice against Adashev (3-2, 0-1 UFC). Populating the cage along with these two quick men is referee Jason Herzog, and the touch of gloves is the first of many strikes to come. Mudaerji lands a powerful leg kick that makes Adashev change stances, but “The Lion” charges back with a left hand that makes Mudaerji stumble. Mudaerji gathers his thoughts and fires off a side kick that makes Adashev bounce away. Mudaerji swings and misses with another leg kick, but he lands one from his other leg. Mudaerji just barely misses a head kick, and he ducks out of the way when Adashev darts at him. The Chinese fighter chips away at the lead leg a few more times, all while evading a looping combination from his foe. Mudaerji works the lead leg as Adashev has changed stances, and he sticks Adashev with a right hand when Adashev comes in at him. Adashev swings and misses once more, with Mudaerji able to keep him at arm’s reach thanks to a significant reach advantage. Mudaerji gets off a sharp jab, and he looks for a right hook but Adashev does not come at him this time. Mudaerji peppers the lead leg with kicks, only to change it up with a kick up high to keep his foe guessing. Adashev hits nothing but air with a wide combination, allowing Mudaerji to land a stiff body kick and a leg kick from afar. Mudaerji lunges with a jab, and when he reaches out another, Adashev lands a heavy left hand. Mudaerji backs off, and Adashev is on him and connects with a right hand as well. Mudaerji looks to counter with a right hand when Adashev advances, and he stings Adashev with a right hook as Adashev has no choice but to blitz forward. Mudaerji slaps out a jab, and another breaks up a prospective combination from his opponent. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 2
Mudaerji offers a glove touch, and his foe obliges him before taking a punch across the forward bow. Adashev charges in to attack, and although he misses with the majority of his strikes, one punch at the end of a shot collides with the chin. Mudaerji takes a quick count of his teeth before pushing out with a front kick. Adashev once more tries his charge, and this time Mudaerji is ready for it as he snipes him with a few jabs and a left hand. Adashev crashes the pocket to force a grappling exchange, but Mudaerji keeps his balances and pushes off to prevent any possible takedown. When Mudaerji attempts a spinning kick, Adashev circles around to take his back and slams his right hand in the side of Mudaerji’s head repeatedly. Mudaerji powers back up, and he barely misses getting clipped with a left hook. Mudaerji jumps and lands a switch kick, but Adashev brushes it off and circles away. When Mudaerji tries to land a body kick, Adashev drops him with a right hand. “The Tibetan Eagle” quickly leaps back to his feet, and his hands are down as he tries to pressure his opponent but gets tagged once more. Mudaerji lands a few punches and a front kick up the middle to get back into his groove, and he ducks away to dodge the strikes that come his way. As Adashev races forward, Mudaerji cracks him with a right hand. Adashev gets nailed with another right hand, and he turns away for a moment and falls into the fence. Mudaerji chains together a few punches as he chases him, but he lets Adashev off the hook and backs off. A possibly recovered Adashev circles the edge of the cage to gather his thoughts, and he swings and misses with a looping right hand. Mudaerji fakes a flying knee to get Adashev to retreat, and he lands a leg kick as Adashev’s volume has completely fallen away. Mudaerji chips away with a few kicks before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 3
Mudaerji begins the final round with a kick, and when Adashev tries to come at him with strikes, Mudaerji ducks away and lands another kick. Mudaerji has a head kick blocked, and he defends himself from the looping right hand that soars towards his face. Adashev is well short of his target as Mudaerji jabs at him from a great distance, all while Mudaerji kicks at him. The feints and fakes from Mudaerji are getting Adashev to react and guess, allowing Mudaerji to tee off on him with long punches and leg kicks. The pace wanes as Mudaerji is in his groove with his hands by his waist, throwing head kicks and wildly inaccurate spinning kicks unconcerned about the response. Adashev loads up on his punches but they are not able to get any traction, with Mudaerji styling on him with single, effective strikes. Mudaerji takes a leg kick as he hops out of the way, and a body kick gets blocked but still has some impact. Adashev gets off a solid right hand, and Mudaerji stops and mocks him to claim the strike did not do anything. Adashev whiffs but is pressuring his opponent, who is now struggling to keep his range and land anything of merit. Mudaerji hops forward with a left hand, and Adashev charges like a bull with booming punches. Adashev throws bombs, and falls over with how hard he is throwing, but Mudaerji rolls with the punches and lands one final spinning wheel kick for good measure. The fight ends, and Mudaerji sticks his tongue out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)

The Official Result
Su Mudaerji def. Zarrukh Adashev via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Big Brady is high on Sumudaerji, citing his striking skills, reach advantage, and upside. He notes that Zarrukh Adashev got knocked out quickly in his UFC debut and looked out of shape. He predicts a first-round knockout for Sumudaerji, believing he is on a different level. He mentions that Sumudaerji's takedown defense has been improving.

Sumudaerji by KO in round 1
"give me sumidargi by ko in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sumudaerji

The host is confident in Sumudaerji due to his distance management, footwork, and reach advantage. He thinks Sumudaerji will pick apart Adashev from the outside and potentially land a counter KO. He notes Adashev's recent KO loss and poor defensive habits when throwing leg kicks. He predicts a first-round KO.

"i'll go with suma darjee first round ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji to win by first-round TKO. He notes Sumudaerji's power and size advantage at flyweight, and that Adashev was recently KO'd by Tyson Nam and is now cutting weight, which could be detrimental. He expects a beatdown, calling it a birthday present for Sumudaerji.

first round TKO
"i think sue maduroji will get the job done here against a roukado chef three and two guy"
Expert Picks (3)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Cody picks Sumudaerji because he doubts Tim Elliott's conditioning. He notes that Elliott took the fight on three days' notice and has only trained twice. Cody thinks Elliott's cardio is already suspect and will fade quickly. He believes Sumudaerji has a good left hand and can capitalize if Elliott tires. Cody suggests this is a better live bet opportunity, but for a pre-fight pick, he goes with Sumudaerji.

Live bet Sumudaerji if it gets out of the first round
"I'm gonna take suad deri suad deri's got to be he's got to have some size on him here too right"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)
Sumudaerji

Lucrative James acknowledges the volatility due to Elliott taking the fight on short notice after a recent grappling match. He sees a massive striking advantage for Sumudaerji and thinks he could crack Elliott. However, he notes Elliott's massive grappling edge and that Sumudaerji has been submitted in all his losses. He leans Sumudaerji but passes on betting because the line is +110 and he can't lay that with the grappling disparity. He picks Sumudaerji for the win.

"I'm picking suuji for the win I'm not betting on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Paul picks Tim Elliott but is curious about the submission prop. He notes that Elliott's wrestling and ground game are superior, and Sumudaerji has poor submission defense. Paul thinks Elliott can find a submission if he plays his cards right. He acknowledges Elliott's cardio issues but believes the grappling advantage is significant. Paul is waiting for the Elliott by submission prop to open and hopes for a price around +400 to +500.

Elliott by submission at +400 to +500 if available
"Elliott is the pick I'm curious what the price would be on Elliot by submission and maybe I'll play it if uh if the price is somewhat juicy"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 11 months, 1 week ago

No tap from him. Unreal arm-triangle choke. Su splits blood and goes unconscious. Realistically Tim's last fight in the ufc. Made a mug of him. Took him down and choked him out.