UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 30
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 31
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Nasrat Haqparast
6.36 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
6.0 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
0.34 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
86.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jamie Mullarkey
4.1 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.28 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.46 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Nasrat Haqparast
Moneyline
BetMGM -185
KO/TKO
FanDuel +360
Submission
BetRivers +5000
Decision
FanDuel +120
Jamie Mullarkey
Moneyline
Caesars +170
KO/TKO
BetMGM +600
Submission
BetMGM +1400
Decision
BetRivers +450
Nasrat Haqparast - Fight History
KO R1 2:30 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Quillan Salkilld 1 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Quillan Salkilld 1 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 10 of 13 76% 7 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Quillan Salkilld 14 of 36 38% 6 of 24 7 of 10 1 of 2 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 10 of 13 76% 7 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Quillan Salkilld 14 of 36 38% 6 of 24 7 of 10 1 of 2 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Haqparast (-112), Salkilld (-108)

Round 1
Styles clash quite aggressively in the UFC 321 preliminary headliner, with one man in Haqparast (18-5, 10-4 UFC) a knockout enthusiast and his Australian rival Salkilld (9-1, 2-0 UFC) capable of finish the fight anywhere it takes them. The former’s power may be a bit overstated as of late, with one strike stoppage across his last seven wins, but the younger Salkilld is as ready as referee Kerry Hatley is to face the fire. There is a sporting touch of gloves to precede the lightweight action.
Salkilld strikes first with a front kick and shoots in for an early takedown. Haqparast shucks it aside and cracks Salkilld with a left hand, marching the Aussie down with his left hand cocked back for further punishment. Haqparast stands his man up with two more concussive lefts, and a naked shot from Salkilld comes up way too short. He tries again, and once more, Haqparast dances out of the way. Salkilld catches a body kick, but he has to set it down rather than doing something else with it. Salkilld unleashes a heavy left hand that bounces off the shoulder, and the Aussie responds with a front kick to the chest and a whipping body kick. Salkilld punches his way into a shot, and Haqparast springs away to avoid it. Salkilld plants a kick on the lead leg and leans back as a left hand soars at his face. Haqparast keeps loading up on power, shaking Salkilld up with his single concussive power blows.
The Aussie chambers and fires a booming head kick, and Haqparast cannot get his guard up in time. The shin collides as cleanly as one possibly can into Haqparast’s dome, and the Moroccan goes down like a sack of bricks. Landing on his face, Haqparast lays lifelessly until his right leg starts twitching uncontrollably, the fighter unconscious and his body working of its own volition. Hatley knows that there is nothing more for Salkilld to do today and makes sure Salkilld is not about to throw anything else.
Salkilld puts his hands up and walks away, and Hatley and the medical professionals race to tend to the destroyed athlete, who is still out. The doctors roll him over and try to wake up the UFC veteran, who stays unconscious for an uncomfortable amount of time. Thankfully, Haqparast is able to come to, and he speaks to coach Firas Zahabi and sits up, even managing to eventually get to his feet without needing to be stretchered out of the cage. With Haqparast seemingly alright—he will of course need to go to the hospital to get checked out—Salkilld is able to celebrate his handiwork, having registered an instant “Knockout of the Year” contender with his shin-to-chin jamboree.

The Official Result
Quillan Salkilld def. Nasrat Haqparast R1 2:30 via KO (Head Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Angelo picks Nasrat Haqparast as a slight underdog, citing his high striking volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute) and excellent 84% takedown defense. He notes that Quillan Salkilld's wrestling approach against Yanal Ashmouz won't work here because Nasrat is a better wrestler. Angelo acknowledges it's a tight fight and won't bet it unless he sees a plus sign on Nasrat's moneyline.

Nasrat is a slight dog; if I see a plus sign in front of Nasrat's money line there, I may make that jump
"Nasrat is going to be the pick. Right now he's a slight dog. I'm not going to bet it here cuz this is a really tight fight, but if I see a plus sign in front of Nasrat's money line …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Big Brady slightly favors Nasrat Haqparast, despite acknowledging Quillan Salkilld's relentless pace, cardio, and grappling. He is concerned about Salkilld taking the fight on short notice (made a week ago) and traveling from Australia to Abu Dhabi, which may affect his performance. Brady also notes Haqparast often gets close decisions, especially in Abu Dhabi, and expects a decision win for Haqparast.

Haqparast by decision
"I'm going to go Haqparast. I think a pick 'em is about right. I think it probably does look like a pick 'em, but when it goes to decision and the fight's close, the crooked corrupt judges are going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Nasrat Haqparast, citing his takedown defense (84%) and volume striking. He notes that Salkilld relies heavily on takedowns and may struggle if they are stuffed, as he has dropped rounds to lesser competition. Cody believes Haqparast's experience against top fighters and ability to outwork Salkilld on the feet will lead to a decision win.

"I'm going to take Nasrat Haqparast in another fight I expect to be real closely contested."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Connor sees Haqparast as a reliable, durable fighter who has only lost to elite action fighters like Drew Dober, Dan Hooker, and Bobby Green. He views Salkilld as too green, with a collapsing defensive style and a game that isn't cohesive yet. Connor believes Haqparast's pressure and power will overwhelm Salkilld, and he considers the even odds a huge value on Haqparast.

Odds are dead even, which feels very wrong; Haqparast should be a favorite. Big value on Haqparast.
"Haqparast might be like a head case and a guy who can't adjust, but in his way, he's extremely reliable at just doing what he does every fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Daniel Vreeland is impressed by Salkilld's weaponized cardio and high-volume takedown style, which he believes will be too much for Haqparast. He notes that Haqparast hasn't faced multiple takedown attempts in a long time and that Salkilld's length and pressure will be problematic. He acknowledges the short notice and travel but thinks Salkilld's style will carry him to a decision win.

"I think that Quinnland has the style to really separate himself to where hopefully for his sake he doesn't get screwed on the scorecard."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Lucrative James picks Quillan Salkilld, but notes he hasn't done tape study and this is a last-minute addition. He believes Salkilld is the better all-around fighter with elite pace and takedowns, and that Haqparast's takedown defense is unproven against relentless wrestlers. However, he acknowledges the short notice and travel disadvantage for Salkilld, making this a close fight.

"I'm going to pick Quinn and Sil. I just feel like Nazareth Hackarass hasn't fought this style basically ever before."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

The host notes Haqparast is on a five-fight winning streak but believes he is declining and will struggle against Salkilld's Muay Thai and BJJ. He predicts Salkilld wins by decision.

decision
"Give me SK and Sill by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Salkilld's takedown-heavy style may not work against Haqparast's takedown defense. He notes that Haqparast has fought tougher competition and has a volume advantage. Paul also mentions that the Abu Dhabi crowd may favor Haqparast, and he expects a decision win.

"your takes make a lot of sense to me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The MMA Guru picks Nasrat Haqparast by decision, expecting a 29-28 win. He believes Haqparast's pace, takedown defense, and experience will be too much for Quillan Salkilld, who is on short notice. He notes that Salkilld's wins (over Anshul Jubli, Unal Ashmaev) are not impressive, and that he may tire in later rounds. He predicts Salkilld may win the first round, but Haqparast will take over in the second and third.

possible third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Nasrat Haqparast a decision or maybe a third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Zane agrees with Connor that Salkilld is too inexperienced and that Haqparast's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Salkilld's defensive striking collapses under pressure and that Haqparast is a significant step up in competition. Zane also highlights that Haqparast has beaten solid fighters outside the elite level and that Salkilld's game isn't ready for this level.

Odds are nonsense; Haqparast should be a favorite.
"I just can't justify the line being anywhere close to even. Like it's such a huge step up for Sal killed."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 135 of 273 49% 135 of 273 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:49
Esteban Ribovics 0 147 of 433 33% 149 of 436 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 33 of 64 51% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 36 of 107 33% 36 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 49 of 104 47% 49 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 62 of 183 33% 62 of 183 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nasrat Haqparast 0 53 of 105 50% 53 of 105 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:49
Esteban Ribovics 0 49 of 143 34% 51 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 135 of 273 49% 103 of 233 26 of 34 6 of 6 134 of 272 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 147 of 433 33% 120 of 395 17 of 27 10 of 11 147 of 433 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 33 of 64 51% 21 of 50 11 of 13 1 of 1 33 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 36 of 107 33% 28 of 94 3 of 7 5 of 6 36 of 107 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 49 of 104 47% 39 of 91 8 of 11 2 of 2 49 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 62 of 183 33% 53 of 170 6 of 10 3 of 3 62 of 183 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nasrat Haqparast 53 of 105 50% 43 of 92 7 of 10 3 of 3 52 of 104 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 49 of 143 34% 39 of 131 8 of 10 2 of 2 49 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics, highlighting his sneaky power, tight striking, and ability to mix in takedowns and BJJ. He notes that Nasrat Haqparast is not very dangerous and tends to win close decisions, but believes Ribovics can win more decisively. He also mentions that Vegas judges don't favor Nasrat, which could help Ribovics.

"I'm pretty high on re he's got dog in him we saw that in the L fight he has some wrestling he's got striking nazat is not very dangerous so I think reix can win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics, citing his volume, durability, and power. He notes Nasrat Haqparast is not a wrestler and will stand and trade, which favors Ribovics. He predicts Ribovics will break Haqparast and knock him out in the second round.

Ribovics by KO round 2
"I'm going to take Esteban Rivix to win this fight and I think he knocks out hack brast... give me rivix to win by second round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor picks Ribovics as a fun flyer, noting that Ribovics is a pocket combination puncher who will force exchanges and get hit but also land. He mentions that Haqparast has lost to similar pressure fighters like Dober and that Ribovics has the power to hurt him. Connor admits it's a competitive fight but goes with Ribovics for the upset.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'll just pick ribovich because uh, I would normally pick hock peros and I don't feel like it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The host acknowledges the public is high on Ribovics after his Fight of the Year candidate, but believes they are overlooking Haqparast's experience and strength of schedule. He expects Haqparast's combination striking to overcome the favorite and win a decision.

decision
"I believe the public is very high on reix after that fight of the year he had against Daniel zel Huber back in September but they are overlooking the experience and strength of schedule from hack prast and I believe …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Nasrat Haqparast. He views Haqparast as a simple straight-punch fighter without enough power, while Ribovics is more dynamic with better footwork, kicks, and versatility. He notes Ribovics' fight of the year contender and predicts a close 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going with es bam ribovich... he mixes it up way better he's the one Landing body kicks and a head kick here and there... I'm going to go vean decision 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Zane picks Haqparast, banking on his speed and experience in close fights. He notes that Haqparast rarely loses to opponents he is faster than, and Ribovics is hittable and will force exchanges. Zane acknowledges that Haqparast can be out-thought but believes his athleticism will carry him in a brawl.

Haqparast opened +197, now +248; Ribovics opened -264, now -284. Zane notes the odds are moving away from Haqparast.
"I'm banking on hock per husk just being faster honestly."
WIN vs Jared Gordon
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 146 of 316 46% 156 of 330 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Gordon 0 141 of 299 47% 170 of 338 0 of 13 0% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 35 of 64 54% 35 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Gordon 0 16 of 56 28% 21 of 63 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:13
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 37 of 80 46% 47 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 55 of 88 62% 79 of 120 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:34
3 Nasrat Haqparast 0 74 of 172 43% 74 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 70 of 155 45% 70 of 155 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 146 of 316 46% 122 of 288 23 of 27 1 of 1 133 of 298 8 of 10 5 of 8
Jared Gordon 141 of 299 47% 125 of 275 12 of 19 4 of 5 128 of 274 13 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 35 of 64 54% 27 of 55 8 of 9 0 of 0 30 of 56 0 of 0 5 of 8
Jared Gordon 16 of 56 28% 11 of 48 2 of 4 3 of 4 14 of 50 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 37 of 80 46% 27 of 68 10 of 12 0 of 0 30 of 71 7 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 55 of 88 62% 49 of 81 6 of 7 0 of 0 44 of 70 11 of 18 0 of 0
3 Nasrat Haqparast 74 of 172 43% 68 of 165 5 of 6 1 of 1 73 of 171 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 70 of 155 45% 65 of 146 4 of 8 1 of 1 70 of 154 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Nasrat Haqparast
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Haqparast (-238), Gordon (+195)

Round 1
Haqparast and Gordon do not touch gloves before going at it. Rich Mitchell is your referee. Haqparast is southpaw, Gordon orthodox, and Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence, picking up a single-leg. He elevates the leg, but instead of finishing the takedown, uses his free hand to punch Haqparast’s face. Gordon lets the leg go, but scoops up another single-leg seconds later, and again uses the chance to land strikes rather than bring the fight to the floor. He loses the leg and Haqparast sticks him with a hard left. Haqparast lands another hard left, and Gordon drops levels for a takedown. This time it looks like a serious attempt, as he runs Haqparast to the fence, but Haqparast keeps his feet under him. They disengage and return to the center of the Octagon. Gordon shoots for another takedown, and again they end up against the fence. Haqparast again defends ably, and after they break, he nails Gordon with a solid right jab. Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence and they trade shots up the middle. Haqparast gets the better of it, smacking Gordon with a three-piece that hurts him. Gordon seems to recover, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast

Round 2
Haqparast scores first, with a hard overhand left that glances off the shoulder but still gets some of Gordon’s head. Gordon marches forward, but his face is showing the wear of trying to get past Haqparast’s righty jab. Gordon drops for a takedown, but Haqparast defends capably. Gordon marches forward, backing Haqparast to the cage, and nails him with two good punches before Haqparast can slide out the side. Gordon walks Haqparast down against the fence and mugs him with punches again. Haqparast is bleeding from under the left eye. There is a brief break in the action as Gordon’s left glove is losing tape. They go back to work, and Gordon feints a level change to open him up for a pair of punches upstairs. Haqparast returns fire, and both men are getting their shots in. Gordon backs Haqparast up to the fence and blasts him with punches to the body. Haqparast tries to get back to space, but Gordon’s pressure is stifling him. With 30 seconds to go, they clinch against the fence. They separate and Haqparast lands a good right to the chin before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
Haqparast and Gordon do not touch gloves before going at it. Rich Mitchell is your referee. Haqparast is southpaw, Gordon orthodox, and Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence, picking up a single-leg. He elevates the leg, but instead of finishing the takedown, uses his free hand to punch Haqparast’s face. Gordon lets the leg go, but scoops up another single-leg seconds later, and again uses the chance to land strikes rather than bring the fight to the floor. He loses the leg and Haqparast sticks him with a hard left. Haqparast lands another hard left, and Gordon drops levels for a takedown. This time it looks like a serious attempt, as he runs Haqparast to the fence, but Haqparast keeps his feet under him. They disengage and return to the center of the Octagon. Gordon shoots for another takedown, and again they end up against the fence. Haqparast again defends ably, and after they break, he nails Gordon with a solid right jab. Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence and they trade shots up the middle. Haqparast gets the better of it, smacking Gordon with a three-piece that hurts him. Gordon seems to recover, and the horn sounds. Haqparast scores first, with a hard overhand left that glances off the shoulder but still gets some of Gordon’s head. Gordon marches forward, but his face is showing the wear of trying to get past Haqparast’s righty jab. Gordon drops for a takedown, but Haqparast defends capably. Gordon marches forward, backing Haqparast to the cage, and nails him with two good punches before Haqparast can slide out the side. Gordon walks Haqparast down against the fence and mugs him with punches again. Haqparast is bleeding from under the left eye. There is a brief break in the action as Gordon’s left glove is losing tape. They go back to work, and Gordon feints a level change to open him up for a pair of punches upstairs. Haqparast returns fire, and both men are getting their shots in. Gordon backs Haqparast up to the fence and blasts him with punches to the body. Haqparast tries to get back to space, but Gordon’s pressure is stifling him. With 30 seconds to go, they clinch against the fence. They separate and Haqparast lands a good right to the chin before the round ends. Neither man gives any quarter in the opening moments, standing toe-to-toe and swinging away. Haqparast’s fast hands show out, as he tags Gordon with a clean southpaw one-two. Gordon changes levels and drags Haqparast to the floor, but Haqparast refuses to concede the takedown, popping right back to his feet. Gordon marches forward, landing his jab on Haqparast and backing him up. Gordon is relentless, walking down the younger man, and mixing in level changes to keep him guessing. Haqparast lands a clean jab and Gordon returns fire with a hook to the head. Haqparast hits Gordon with a short punch to the body. Gordon comes back with a left hand upstairs. Under a minute to go and it still feels like anyone’s fight. Both men are battered and exhausted. They clinch and Haqparast scores with a short elbow inside. They separate and exchange a flurry of punches. The final horn sounds on what is, so far, easily the best fight of the night.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast (29-28 Haqparast)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)

The Official Result
Nasrat Haqparast def. Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Angelo picks Nasrat, highlighting his high volume striking (6 significant strikes per minute) and solid takedown defense (78%). He notes Nasrat has power, durability, and can push a pace. He thinks Jared Gordon is sneaky good but Nasrat is the better overall fighter. He is confident in Nasrat winning straightforwardly.

"nazat lands six significant strikes per minute and that seems like a giant number... nazat though I think is just the better overall Fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Big Brady picks Nasrat Haqparast to win by second-round knockout, citing his volume and sneaky power. He questions Jared Gordon's chin, noting he has been knocked out multiple times. Brady believes Haqparast's striking will overwhelm Gordon, and if Gordon's durability holds, it could be close, but he expects a finish before that.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going to take hack brast here I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Haqparast, citing his size, boxing, and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Gordon's wrestling is less effective at 155 and that Haqparast should outpoint him. However, he warns that the line is steep and the fight could be close.

"I gota go with Nasrat Haqparast"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Daniel Vreeland picks Nasrat Haqparast confidently, highlighting his improved output and power in his left hand. He notes Gordon's durability and top control but believes Haqparast's speed, power, and athleticism will be the difference. He sees Haqparast as hitting his peak and winning a decision or knockout.

"I'm gonna pick nazat hakaras to win this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Jacob picks Nasrat, calling him better everywhere with superb striking and defensive wrestling. He believes Nasrat can weather Gordon's storm and that the -240 moneyline is good value. He respects Gordon's journey but thinks Nasrat is the better fighter.

"I believe that nazat hack barass should be just about better everywhere... I believe that minus 240 money line is one of the better values on this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

JP picks Nasrat, noting his 3-fight win streak and better competition, though he worries about Nasrat's decision-making on the feet. He expects a close fight but favors Nasrat's clinch game and pressure. Brevan is more confident, predicting a KO/TKO via Nasrat's powerful overhand left. He criticizes Gordon's recent performances and believes Nasrat will out-strike him and get a finish. Both see Nasrat winning, with Brevan specifically calling for a stoppage.

Nasrat by KO/TKO
"I'm gonna go nazrat KO TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul picks Haqparast but is hesitant due to the price. He notes Haqparast's takedown defense is okay and his striking is solid, but Gordon could make it competitive with wrestling. Paul expects a close decision.

"I don't love laying minus 240 with hack press I do see a world in which this is really close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The MMA Guru picks Nasrat Haqparast over Jared Gordon, believing Haqparast is the better boxer and will stuff takedowns. He notes that Gordon is not a dominant grappler and that Haqparast's recent first-round TKO shows his power. He expects Haqparast to box Gordon up as the fight goes on, possibly losing the first round but winning the next two.

"I'm going to go Nazar ha prast here over Jared Gordon um I do I think and this is really annoying to me because it the problem with Jared Gordon is and nazra haar is their existence changes my opinion …"
TKO (punches) R1 1:44 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 2 16 of 29 55% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamie Mullarkey 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 2 16 of 29 55% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamie Mullarkey 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 16 of 29 55% 14 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 6 of 8 6 of 8
Jamie Mullarkey 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 16 of 29 55% 14 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 6 of 8 6 of 8
Jamie Mullarkey 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Nasrat Haqparast but is not confident. He notes that both fighters are similar blue-collar types, but Mullarkey's durability is a major concern. Cody points out that Mullarkey has been knocked out by lesser power punchers and Haqparast, while not a huge power puncher, can land enough. He also criticizes Haqparast for being an overpriced favorite who often underperforms. Cody says he doesn't like the fight and is not rushing to bet it.

"I will take hack PR but I don't like it I really don't like it but I really don't like Malarkey"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)
Nasrat Haqparast

Lucrative James thinks Nasrat's boxing will be too sharp for Mullarkey, especially given Mullarkey's recent KO loss and apparent chin deterioration. However, he questions his own objectivity, wondering if recency bias is skewing his view. He notes that Nasrat can be taken down and doesn't rate either fighter highly, so he is passing on betting. He picks Nasrat to win by KO but with low confidence.

KO
"I think his boxing is going to be too sharp for Jamie Malak"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul also picks Haqparast but is hesitant. He mentions Mullarkey's questionable durability and Haqparast's volume advantage. Paul notes that Haqparast is a career underachiever and often wins close decisions. He doesn't trust Mullarkey with his money but isn't excited about Haqparast either.

"I don't know if I can trust Jamie Malarkey with my own money um I'm gonna pick nazra but it's not a fight I'm rushing to bet"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 171 of 377 45% 172 of 378 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:21
Landon Quiñones 0 148 of 354 41% 152 of 359 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 43 of 98 43% 43 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Landon Quiñones 0 44 of 103 42% 47 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 59 of 135 43% 60 of 136 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Landon Quiñones 0 54 of 115 46% 55 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
3 Nasrat Haqparast 0 69 of 144 47% 69 of 144 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Landon Quiñones 0 50 of 136 36% 50 of 136 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 171 of 377 45% 114 of 304 57 of 73 0 of 0 161 of 361 10 of 16 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 148 of 354 41% 79 of 273 37 of 46 32 of 35 137 of 340 11 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 43 of 98 43% 26 of 77 17 of 21 0 of 0 42 of 97 1 of 1 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 44 of 103 42% 14 of 68 13 of 16 17 of 19 43 of 102 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 59 of 135 43% 42 of 111 17 of 24 0 of 0 51 of 121 8 of 14 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 54 of 115 46% 31 of 87 13 of 17 10 of 11 45 of 103 9 of 12 0 of 0
3 Nasrat Haqparast 69 of 144 47% 46 of 116 23 of 28 0 of 0 68 of 143 1 of 1 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 50 of 136 36% 34 of 118 11 of 13 5 of 5 49 of 135 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Angelo picks Nasrat Haqparast as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Landon Quinones is a well-rounded guy but this is too much too soon. Nasrat should be the better striker and has the takedown defense to keep it standing. However, if Landon comes out wrestle-heavy, he could steal the fight.

"Nazarat should be the better striker definitely have to take down defense needed to defend so nazareth's gonna be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Big Brady confidently picks Nasrat Haqparast, citing his much better competition and power. He notes Haqparast has knocked down many opponents and thinks this is a big step down in competition. He predicts a second-round knockout.

"I'm gonna say hack press actually catches Quinones at some point in this fight and knocks him out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Haqparast, noting that Quiñones is making his UFC debut on short notice and was submitted quickly on The Ultimate Fighter. He believes Haqparast's experience and wrestling will be enough, even though he has looked disinterested at times. Cody acknowledges the -500 price is steep but sees no value on the underdog.

"gotta go with hack cross again I just I don't know I know I've been whining about the line and the odds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Daniel Levi picks Nasrat Haqparast confidently, citing his experience against tough competition and his youth (born 1995). He believes Haqparast's activity and smarter decision-making will be the difference. Levi notes that Quiñones is still unproven at the UFC level and that Haqparast has been improving.

Odds mentioned: Haqparast minus 450, Quiñones plus 370.
"I think he's a big favorite for a reason we the jury's just still out on Landon Quiñones."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Haqparast is coming off a decision win over John Makdessi and has been off for a year. Quiñones is a short-notice replacement who was submitted quickly by Jason Knight on the contender series. Haqparast should take advantage of Quiñones' striking defense shortcomings and win by decision. The fight likely goes the full 15 minutes, so the over 2.5 rounds is preferred over the moneyline.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think this fight does actually end up going in the full 50 minutes so I'd rather go the over two and a half more than anything"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul picks Haqparast, agreeing that Quiñones is not ready for this spot. He notes that Haqparast has faced better competition and should be able to outwork Quiñones. Paul is priced out at -500 but sees Haqparast as the clear winner.

"it's minus 500 I'm just never ever ever getting to that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The MMA Guru picks Nasrat Haqparast over Landon Quiñones, stating that none of the Ultimate Fighter prospects this year were good. He notes that Haqparast is more seasoned at 28, has fought top competition like John Makdessi, Bobby Green, Dan Hooker, and Drew Dober, and is a good boxer. He believes Quiñones looked lost on the ground against Jason Knight on TUF and will struggle to land a big punch. He predicts Haqparast will outbox him to a decision or get a TKO in the third round.

decision or TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna go with Nazareth"
WIN vs John Makdessi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 73 of 196 37% 73 of 196 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 1 64 of 173 36% 72 of 181 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 23 of 62 37% 23 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 1 28 of 78 35% 28 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Nasrat Haqparast 0 28 of 86 32% 28 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 24 of 52 46% 32 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 73 of 196 37% 26 of 122 18 of 41 29 of 33 72 of 195 1 of 1 0 of 0
John Makdessi 64 of 173 36% 41 of 139 19 of 29 4 of 5 60 of 168 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 22 of 48 45% 3 of 21 5 of 13 14 of 14 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 12 of 43 27% 4 of 35 6 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 23 of 62 37% 7 of 36 7 of 14 9 of 12 23 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 28 of 78 35% 21 of 64 7 of 13 0 of 1 24 of 73 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Nasrat Haqparast 28 of 86 32% 16 of 65 6 of 14 6 of 7 27 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
John Makdessi 24 of 52 46% 16 of 40 6 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Angelo picks Nasrat Haqparast because he is younger, faster, and more powerful than John Makdessi, and he believes age and inactivity will keep Makdessi a step behind. He notes Nasrat is a high-volume striker with good takedown defense. He has a moneyline bet on Nasrat and says the line has moved in their favor.

Moneyline bet placed; line moved in our favor
"i think nazareth's a solid play i have him winning this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
John Makdessi

Big Brady picks the underdog John Makdessi, despite concerns about his age (37) and layoff due to leg surgery. He notes that Makdessi has excellent striking defense and volume, and that Haqparast has looked poor lately, losing to Dan Hooker and Bobby Green. He expects a very close fight, possibly a split decision, but sides with the dog.

"i'm actually gonna side with the dog here macdessey"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
John Makdessi

Cody picks John Makdessi as a confident underdog, arguing that Nasrat Haqparast is overvalued as a -240 favorite. He notes that Haqparast has looked lost since his knockout loss to Drew Dober, with low volume and poor performances against Bobby Green and Dan Hooker. Makdessi, despite being 37 and on a layoff, is healthy and motivated, and his taekwondo footwork and angles should give Haqparast trouble. Cody believes the fight will be close and go to decision, making the plus money attractive. He has already bet Makdessi at +200.

Makdessi wins by decision (+300); Haqparast under 85.5 fantasy points on PrizePicks
"I missed the plus 205 there was a plus 200 that was still available that I took during your long diatribe there... I was fully intending on betting john mcdessey."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Daniel Levi leans toward Nasrat Haqparast due to his youth and reach advantage, but is not confident. He considers Haqparast a busted prospect and notes that Makdessi is a durable veteran who could win a close decision. He thinks the line is wide and that the fight could be close. He does not bet.

Split decision prop
"I lean hack brows he's 10 years younger you know he's got a four inch reach Advantage blah blah blah they can keep up in Pace but it's not gonna [ __ ] surprise me if Mac Desi comes out …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The host leans towards Haqparast, believing he will land the bigger shots and win a decision. However, he is not confident due to Haqparast's inconsistency and Makdessi's veteran savvy. He advises caution and suggests the fight is volatile.

"I do think he'll be the one landing the bigger and better shots which will ultimately allow him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
John Makdessi

Paul also picks John Makdessi, sharing Cody's view that Haqparast's volume is too low and that Makdessi's experience and striking will keep it competitive. He mentions a personal anecdote about meeting Makdessi years ago, but the reasoning is based on Haqparast's recent struggles and Makdessi's ability to win a close decision. Paul has also bet Makdessi at +200 and calls it his first click of the week.

Makdessi wins by decision (+300)
"John the bull mcdessie for me that's my first click of the week uh plus 200."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Nasrat Haqparast over John Makdessi, citing Makdessi's age (37) and long layoff (1.5 years). He believes Haqparast is still improving and has a solid chin, while Makdessi may not be the same fighter. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Haqparast, with his grit carrying him in the later rounds.

Haqparast wins by decision 29-28
"i'm going to be going with nasrat hackperast getting it done against john mcdessey here just because of the age of mcdessen"
LOSS vs King Green
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 188 of 355 52% 188 of 355 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nasrat Haqparast 0 76 of 193 39% 76 of 193 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 38 of 71 53% 38 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nasrat Haqparast 0 17 of 51 33% 17 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 71 of 141 50% 71 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nasrat Haqparast 0 38 of 72 52% 38 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 King Green 0 79 of 143 55% 79 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nasrat Haqparast 0 21 of 70 30% 21 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 188 of 355 52% 152 of 313 26 of 32 10 of 10 188 of 355 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nasrat Haqparast 76 of 193 39% 48 of 150 21 of 30 7 of 13 76 of 193 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 38 of 71 53% 28 of 60 5 of 6 5 of 5 38 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nasrat Haqparast 17 of 51 33% 9 of 37 7 of 10 1 of 4 17 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 King Green 71 of 141 50% 57 of 127 11 of 11 3 of 3 71 of 141 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nasrat Haqparast 38 of 72 52% 25 of 56 11 of 13 2 of 3 38 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 King Green 79 of 143 55% 67 of 126 10 of 15 2 of 2 79 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nasrat Haqparast 21 of 70 30% 14 of 57 3 of 7 4 of 6 21 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks Bobby Green in a razor-thin decision, citing his toughness and grappling advantage. He worries that Green may fall in love with his hands after knocking out Al Iaquinta and not wrestle, which he believes is necessary to win. He notes that Haqparast is dangerous on the feet and may have improved his takedown defense after the Hooker loss.

"bobby green is my pick it's a razor thin close pick because i am worried about his mindset and if he's gonna wrestle or not"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady likes Green's recent form, noting his high volume and improved striking. He mentions Green outlanded Fiziev 143-104 in a close loss. He believes Green's wrestling will be key, as he can mix in takedowns to seal rounds. He expects a close fight but thinks Green will edge it by decision. He notes Haqparast has power but Green's volume and takedowns should be enough.

Green by decision
"i think bobby green's gonna slightly edge this one out and edge it out by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Green, citing Haqparast's recent poor performances and lack of confidence. He thinks Green's antics and pressure will cause Haqparast to freeze. He notes the line is playable and should be closer to -200.

Bobby Green by decision
"i'm off the hack brass train as well bobby green will be making the car for me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Levi picks Bobby Green, citing his experience, volume, and well-rounded game. He notes that Nasrat Haqparast relies heavily on his left hand and has been backing away since the Dober loss. Levi believes Green's volume and ability to mix in takedowns will overwhelm Haqparast. He bet Green at -135.

bet at -135
"give me bobby green and i bet him at minus 135"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
King Green

Green is a slick boxer who should outland Haqparast in exchanges. Haqparast is a striker but has been outclassed by better boxers. Green's chin is solid, and he should win a decision. The over 2.5 rounds at -225 is a better bet than the moneyline, as Green often fights close decisions.

over 2.5 rounds at -225; Green by decision
"i do like bobby green here uh not enough to bet it the interesting line here is actually over two and a half which is a minus 225"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul picks Green, noting Haqparast has looked gun-shy and inconsistent. He thinks Green's volume and pressure will be too much, and that Haqparast may freeze up. He warns that judges often score against Green, but believes Green should win a decision.

Bobby Green by decision
"i'm gonna be killing myself when somehow he gets robbed again because the judges as you said earlier just absolutely hate bobby green"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green by decision, believing his striking and range control will be too much for Nasrat Haqparast. He notes Green's close fights with top lightweights and Haqparast's one-dimensional boxing.

unanimous decision 29-28
"i'm going to go with bobby green here"
LOSS vs Dan Hooker
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 73 of 153 47% 177 of 261 3 of 7 42% 0 0 7:04
Nasrat Haqparast 0 27 of 69 39% 35 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 26 of 63 41% 30 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:36
Nasrat Haqparast 0 7 of 21 33% 7 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dan Hooker 0 29 of 56 51% 59 of 86 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:57
Nasrat Haqparast 0 11 of 27 40% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Dan Hooker 0 18 of 34 52% 88 of 108 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:31
Nasrat Haqparast 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 73 of 153 47% 26 of 97 27 of 32 20 of 24 55 of 134 14 of 15 4 of 4
Nasrat Haqparast 27 of 69 39% 17 of 56 9 of 11 1 of 2 23 of 63 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 26 of 63 41% 6 of 38 10 of 12 10 of 13 23 of 60 3 of 3 0 of 0
Nasrat Haqparast 7 of 21 33% 6 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Dan Hooker 29 of 56 51% 13 of 38 14 of 16 2 of 2 16 of 42 11 of 12 2 of 2
Nasrat Haqparast 11 of 27 40% 7 of 22 4 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 22 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Dan Hooker 18 of 34 52% 7 of 21 3 of 4 8 of 9 16 of 32 0 of 0 2 of 2
Nasrat Haqparast 9 of 21 42% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 2 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Angelo picks Haqparast, believing Hooker has peaked and taken too much damage. He notes Hooker's recent wars and knockout loss to Chandler, and his visa issues affecting preparation. Angelo thinks Haqparast has better chin durability and power, and he already placed a moneyline bet at plus money.

Angelo already placed a moneyline bet on Haqparast. He suggests less less on Monkey Knife Fight.
"I love Nazareth in this fight I like really love them I already put a money line bet on this plus money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Big Brady picks Dan Hooker to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to major red flags. Hooker had visa issues and will arrive in Vegas on Thursday night, then cut weight Friday morning after a 20-hour flight. Brady notes Hooker has fought much better competition and is the more well-rounded fighter, but the travel and weight cut are huge concerns.

"i'm still gonna pick dan hooker i guess"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody picks Hooker, citing his durability, technical striking, and fast starts. He notes Haqparast's slow starts and that Hooker excels in three-round fights. He also mentions Haqparast's step-up loss to Dober and unimpressive wins. He expects Hooker to win a decision or late TKO.

Hooker by TKO
"in a three-round fight i got dan hooker all day here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Daniel Levi picks Nasrat Haqparast, citing the cumulative damage Dan Hooker has absorbed throughout his career. He notes Hooker's high strike absorption in fights against Maximo Blanco, Edson Barboza, Paul Felder, and Dustin Poirier, and his first-round KO loss to Michael Chandler. Levi believes Hooker's iron jaw may be fading and that Haqparast's youth and power left hand can capitalize. He sees value in the underdog line.

"give me nasrat to upset dan hooker preferably with that missile cannon nuke left hand that he's got"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Jacob picks Haqparast, citing Hooker's chin issues after recent wars and the long flight from New Zealand. He notes Haqparast's chin has held up since his flash knockout loss. Jacob sees great value at $7,500 and plus money.

Jacob plans to include Haqparast in his DraftKings lineup. He agrees with less less on Monkey Knife Fight.
"I actually think there's Great Value at 7 500 at Plus 135"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)

The host picks Merab Dvalishvili via decision. He believes Moraes' best path is a first-round KO, but after that, Dvalishvili's pace and pressure will take over. He notes that Dvalishvili has a long winning streak and his style is difficult to keep up with. He suggests a double chance prop (KO or decision) for Dvalishvili for best value.

Moraes round 1 at +800; Dvalishvili KO/decision double chance
"i'm going to go with morav via decision but if you do have access to that double chance prop like i said earlier ko slash decision forum rob i would take a shot on that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Paul picks Hooker, citing his durability and technical skill, and notes Haqparast's visa issues. He acknowledges Hooker's recent KO loss to Chandler but believes Hooker's chin is still solid. He thinks Hooker's experience and strength of schedule give him the edge.

"dan hooker would be my pick here i think he i mean the durability is on point for him and he's a better striker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

The MMA Guru picks Dan Hooker over Nasrat Haqparast, despite Hooker's short-notice travel and weight cut. He believes Hooker's size and reach advantage will be key, and that Haqparast's wins haven't aged well. He predicts a second-round TKO via a knee up the middle, as Haqparast dips his head in combinations. He also notes that both fighters have personal distractions, but Hooker's competition level is higher.

second round tko, knee up the middle
"i'll say dan hooker gets it done by a second round tko with a knee up the middle"
Jamie Mullarkey - Fight History
Submission R1 3:02 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Quillan Salkilld 0 5 of 8 62% 18 of 21 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:39
Jamie Mullarkey 0 1 of 4 25% 6 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Quillan Salkilld 0 5 of 8 62% 18 of 21 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:39
Jamie Mullarkey 0 1 of 4 25% 6 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Quillan Salkilld 5 of 8 62% 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 4 3 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Mullarkey 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Quillan Salkilld 5 of 8 62% 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 4 3 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Mullarkey 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Quillan Salkilld
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salkilld (-850), Mullarkey (+500)

Round 1
The UFC knows exactly what it did matching these two Aussies together. On the one hand, rising talent Salkilld (10-1, 3-0 UFC) is coming off a huge knockout and the biggest win of his career. On the other is a chinny, off-and-on striker in Mullarkey (18-8, 6-6 UFC) whose last four defeats have all come from punches in bunches. Betting odds are massively lopsided in favor of the 26-year-old, and referee Dan Movahedi will serve as the arbiter of what some have called a mismatch. In the sport of MMA, there are no sure things, other than that these two countrymen will touch gloves—and do—to begin.
Salkilld keeps a wide berth early to find his range, slapping the lead leg with a few kicks before shooting for a double. He puts Mullarkey down on his hands and knees, but Mullarkey is able to get up thanks to the wall behind him. Salkilld dings him with a short punch and an elbow, and Mullarkey shuts down the additional takedown effort and turns him about in the clinch. Mullarkey lifts up a single, and he dumps the younger man to the floor. Salkilld bounces up and counters with his own single, and Mullarkey connects with several punches before Salkilld bails on it. Salkilld then puts his arms up in the air to signal that he was not harmed by any of the blows, so Mullarkey runs at him and lifts up a knee on the way. He closes the distance to get hold of Salkilld, wrapping his arms around the waist and looking for some takedown, and Salkilld turns the tables of him and drops him square on his head.
Salkilld wraps his legs around the body to lock up a triangle, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke that is on the chin.
He elects to crank the neck to the side rather than get a choke, and with a full head of steam, he squeezes. The torque from the sub is too much for Mullarkey to bear, and because of the excruciating neck crank, he forces Mullarkey to tap out.
The victorious Salkilld promptly climbs to the top of the cage to celebrate, while declaring that he is now 4-0 in the promotion with his sights set high.

The Official Result
Quillan Salkilld def. Jamie Mullarkey R1 3:02 via Submission (Neck Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his well-rounded skills, good takedown defense, and BJJ black belt. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey has no chin and will likely look to wrestle, but Salkilld's takedown defense and jiu-jitsu are good. He acknowledges Mullarkey's volume but says without a chin he can't hang. He plans to bet on Salkilld once odds are available.

will probably have a bet on him
"Qualin should win this fight. I'm going to pick him to win. I We don't have odds yet. But once we do, I will probably have a bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Big Brady is very confident in Quillan Salkilld, calling Jamie Mullarkey's chin the second worst in the UFC. He notes Mullarkey was running from Rolando Bedoya and is likely finished. Salkilld has first-round knockouts in his last two fights, and Brady expects the same here.

Salkilld by KO in round 1
"Give me Quill and Sill by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Cody is very confident in Salkilld, citing his well-rounded game, takedown defense, and power. He notes that Mullarkey has a weak chin and has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He expects Salkilld to win by knockout, likely in the second round.

Salkilld by KO
"Salk is like minus 900, but if you go over into the props section here, by KO is like minus 125. I got money on that."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Connor picks Salkilld, describing him as a creative counter puncher with good eyes and diverse tools. He notes that Mullarkey is slow, not durable, and relies on crashing into opponents, which plays into Salkilld's strengths. He also mentions that Salkilld finished Haqparast, who also finished Mullarkey, indicating a clear stylistic advantage.

Odds: Salkilld -900, Mullarkey +600. Connor notes the odds are wide but justifies the booking as a step back for Salkilld to gain experience.
"Salkilld is a counter puncher. If you give him space, he will eat you up with creative things. He will make you have to make decisions."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Salkilld to dominate and likely finish Mullarkey. He praises Salkilld's durability, knockout power, and wrestling, while noting that Mullarkey is a veteran past his prime. Vreeland expects Salkilld to either knock him out or outwork him en route to a clear win.

"I'm expecting pure dominance by Quinnland Southfield."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

James picks Salkilld to win by finish, calling him a rising force in the lightweight division. He believes Mullarkey is an aging veteran with durability issues and that Salkilld will run through him in round one or two.

"I'm taking Quilan Sal Keel here all day long via finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Salkilld is a BJJ black belt with dangerous striking, as shown by his headkick knockout of Nazaret Hackparast. He is on a 10-fight win streak and has good cardio. Mullarkey is a veteran but has durability issues and is on short notice. The host expects Salkilld to win but thinks the line is too high; he prefers the over 2.5 rounds at +125 because Mullarkey may grapple and make it competitive early. Salkilld should pull away late for a decision or late finish.

over 2.5 rounds (+125); Salkilld by decision
"I think Skild will end up landing more damage throughout this matchup. And I think he ends up winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Paul agrees, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Salkilld's impressive wrestling and striking. He notes that Salkilld is younger, bigger, and more durable. He expects a finish, possibly by knockout.

"I like this kid. I think he's getting better. I faded him a little bit against Hack Ross last time out thinking Nazarro would have a lot of veteran savvy... but I like him a lot and nine to one. …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

The Guru picks Quillan Salkilld, calling him a level above Jamie Mullarkey. He notes Salkilld's finishing ability and predicts a first-round TKO, comparing it to Ruffy's win over Mullarkey. He acknowledges the odds are excessive but agrees with the pick.

first round TKO, odds -1200
"I think Quill and Sfield's going to win this one by first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Zane picks Salkilld, agreeing that Mullarkey is a bad matchup for himself. He notes that Mullarkey has to be able to crash into opponents with strikes, clinch, and wrestling, but Salkilld can stop him at any point and strand him in a vulnerable position. He also points out that Mullarkey's wins are against older or slower fighters, while dynamic athletes tend to catch him.

Odds: Salkilld -900, Mullarkey +600. Zane says the odds are wide but it's a good booking for Salkilld's development.
"That seems like a nightmare matchup for Jamie Mullarkey. Slow, not durable, has to be able to do everything."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 0 43 of 89 48% 47 of 94 3 of 17 17% 0 0 5:41
Rolando Bedoya 0 46 of 116 39% 55 of 129 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 9 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:49
Rolando Bedoya 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 15 of 27 55% 18 of 30 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:38
Rolando Bedoya 0 10 of 33 30% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 25 of 54 46% 26 of 55 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:14
Rolando Bedoya 0 31 of 73 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 43 of 89 48% 32 of 74 7 of 10 4 of 5 40 of 82 3 of 6 0 of 1
Rolando Bedoya 46 of 116 39% 32 of 93 8 of 13 6 of 10 37 of 99 9 of 16 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 3 of 8 37% 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
Rolando Bedoya 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jamie Mullarkey 15 of 27 55% 12 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 2 13 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rolando Bedoya 10 of 33 30% 6 of 25 2 of 4 2 of 4 8 of 28 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 25 of 54 46% 19 of 47 5 of 6 1 of 1 24 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Rolando Bedoya 31 of 73 42% 24 of 63 6 of 7 1 of 3 24 of 62 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey despite his weak chin, because he believes Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with good grappling and striking. He notes that Mullarkey's opponent Rolando Bedoya has no power and is essentially a human punching bag. Angelo is surprised Mullarkey is the underdog and thinks the line will swing back.

"I think Jamie Malarkey wins this fight. I don't have a bet on him just yet. I'm going to keep an eye on the line. It's kind of tightening, but it hasn't tightened enough for me to be like, 'Ah, …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Bedoya

Big Brady picks Rolando Bedoya to win by third-round knockout. He argues that while Mullarkey is more skilled, his chin is extremely fragile and he has been knocked out or dropped repeatedly. He believes Bedoya's durability and volume will be key, and that Mullarkey will eventually get hurt. He notes Bedoya is 0-3 in the UFC but tough.

third round knockout
"I'm going to say Bedoya does knock him out. I'm going to say Bedoya knocks out Malarkey."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey, believing his striking and wrestling will be enough to outwork Bedoya. He notes Bedoya lacks power and has poor takedown defense, while Mullarkey has fought better strikers and mixed in takedowns. He acknowledges Mullarkey's chin is a concern but thinks Bedoya doesn't have the power to exploit it.

"I end up taking Jamie Malarkey. No doubt about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor agrees, emphasizing that Bedoya is a slow, unpowerful kickboxer with no footwork or speed, while Mullarkey is a tough wrestle-boxer who will make him fight tooth and nail. He notes that Mullarkey's losses are to athletic monsters, and Bedoya is not that. He expects Mullarkey to win a solid all-round MMA fight.

"Yeah, I mean... Mullarkey's got more breadth, more options, and I don't think Bedoya is nearly dangerous enough to put him away."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

James picks Jamie Mullarkey with his logical head, citing Mullarkey's better boxing fundamentals and takedown threat. However, he is very hesitant because Mullarkey's chin has degraded from wars and Bedoya throws high volume. He admits he might bet a Bedoya KO prop if the odds are right, showing low conviction.

Bedoya by KO (potential bet)
"I'm going to pick Jamie Malaki. I'm going to go with my logical head, but honestly, if they give me a prop on Bedoya, I'll probably KO prop on Bedoya, I might take the shot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The host thinks Mullarkey is the better overall fighter. He expects Mullarkey's durability to hold up and for him to mix in takedowns and volume to stifle Bedoya and win on the scorecards.

"I think Malarkey is the better overall fighter. If his durability can hold up, look for him to put together a better body of work, mixing in takedowns and volume to really stifle Bedoya and win this fight on the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rolando Bedoya

The Guru picks Rolando Bedoya over Jamie Mullarkey, citing Mullarkey's tendency to get wobbled and cut open. He believes Bedoya can handle Mullarkey's physicality, as seen in his fight against Chaos Williams. He expects a scrap where Mullarkey is more prone to damage.

"I'm going against Jamie Malarkey here. I'm gonna go over Orlando Badoya."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane sees Mullarkey as having more breadth and options than Bedoya, who is a slow, unpowerful pocket kickboxer. He notes that Mullarkey's wrestle-boxing approach and durability should be enough to outwork Bedoya, who has lost all three UFC fights and looked bad. He points out that Mullarkey has beaten athletic fighters and lost only to elite power punchers.

Odds comment: glad the gambler has realized Bedoya shouldn't be a favorite; Mullarkey opened +140 now -120, Bedoya opened -160 now +100
"I'll take Jamie Mullarkey. He's got more breadth, more options, and I don't think Bedoya is nearly dangerous enough to put him away."
LOSS vs Maurício Ruffy
TKO (punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 1 25 of 40 62% 25 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jamie Mullarkey 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 1 25 of 40 62% 25 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jamie Mullarkey 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 25 of 40 62% 21 of 35 0 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 37 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jamie Mullarkey 14 of 38 36% 7 of 28 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 25 of 40 62% 21 of 35 0 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 37 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jamie Mullarkey 14 of 38 36% 7 of 28 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-175), Mullarkey (+145)

Round 1
A striker’s delight at 155 pounds will treat fans to conclude the early preliminary portion of the fight card. With all of his wins and losses coming via knockout, Ruffy (9-1, 0-0 UFC) makes no bones about what he wants to do to willing brawler Mullarkey (17-7, 5-5 UFC). Fists are sure to fly in high quantity and intensity, but before they do, referee Mike Beltran checks them in. Before fists meet faces, they come together sportingly. Ruffy drops down to the floor to drill Mullarkey’s low calf with a Mortal Kombat-esque sweeping kick, and Mullarkey just looks at him. Mullarkey looks for a head kick that misses the mark, and Ruffy hammers his lead leg with a more traditional kick. Ruffy pokes out a jab that reddens the nose of his opponent, and he lands another that gets Mullarkey’s attention. Ruffy puts power behind his strikes, and multiple parts of Mullarkey are red in a hurry. Mullarkey slaps a body kick home, and it is one-and-done as he slips away. Ruffy turns to roll with a heavy right hand just in the nick of time, and he powers out a jab and a winging right hand. Ruffy hammers the lead wheel, and another jab of his opens a cut on the bridge of the nose. Ruffy slips a punch and nails Mullarkey with a right hand, and Mullarkey is tough as a two-dollar steak after eating that without flinching. Mullarkey pursues his own jabs, and Ruffy spins with a wheel kick that gets around the guard. Mullarkey crowds him with a punch salvo, and Ruffy shifts and moves and throws back with a few. Mullarkey keeps powering forward, and Ruffy’s defense is able to keep him safe from most of the harm. Mullarkey fakes a takedown, but Ruffy ignores it and smashes Mullarkey in the face with a ruthless right hand. Ruffy has a right hand skim the top of the head, and he ignores a left hand coming back at him. Ruffy dodges a wide right hand, and he leaps forward to trip Mullarkey up with a flying scissor sweep. Both men hit the ground, but they stand back up and trade. Ruffy beans Mullarkey with two stern right hands, and he times a perfect jump knee that smashes open Mullarkey’s nose. Beltran thinks about stopping the fight but lets it play out a bit longer, and Ruffy does not miss a beat as Mullarkey falls to the ground and climbs back up.
The Brazilian fearlessly marches forward, and he unloads with a long string of punches until Mullarkey collapses in a heap. With Mullarkey on his hands and knees about to take some unnecessary damage, Beltran calls a stop to the fight to save the tough Aussie from himself and the onslaught of the UFC newcomer.
This is a statement introduction for Ruffy, who dons the thick-rimmed glasses of his camp, The Fighting Nerds. Ruffy leaps on top of the cage to celebrate his handiwork, and the crowd goes wild in support of their fighter.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Jamie Mullarkey R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo picks Ruffy based on skill sets alone, citing his power and takedown defense. He expresses concern about the huge step up in competition and stage for Ruffy, and notes Mullarkey has been knocked out multiple times. He only considers a bet on Ruffy by knockout if the odds are good.

Angelo says 'the only bet I would even consider is potentially ruffy by knockout' but only if odds are favorable
"I'm going to have to go with the powerful Striker that can defend takedowns I don't love it I don't love it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady emphasizes Mullarkey's poor chin and Ruffy's power, predicting a first-round knockout. He notes Ruffy's low volume but believes he will land a fight-ending shot. He also mentions a prize pick play on Ruffy under 46.5 significant strikes.

under 46.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I'm taking him to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Cody picks Ruffy, citing his knockout power and Mullarkey's questionable chin. He notes Ruffy is coming down from 170 and has finishing ability. Cody expects Ruffy to knock out Mullarkey early.

Ruffy by KO
"Ruffy by knockout for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy by KO, citing his 100% finish rate and sniper-like counter right hand. He notes Ruffy's excellent takedown defense and calf kicks that slow opponents. He believes Mullarkey's chin is vulnerable and that Ruffy will find the big shot in the second or third round after frustrating Mullarkey on the feet.

Ruffy by KO/TKO
"I think huy is going to stop the takedowns and I think maybe in the scrambles... we're going to see huy land something big"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Ruffy is on a four-fight winning streak and utilizes a Conor McGregor-like striking style with a straight punch down the pipe. Mullarkey has been knocked out three times in the last two years, so his chin won't hold up against Ruffy's precision striking. Ruffy wins by knockout.

knockout
"give me huffy and Huffy by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Paul picks Ruffy, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Ruffy's power. He notes Mullarkey's takedown threat is minimal and Ruffy's striking will be too much. Paul expects a knockout.

"I got to go with Mauricio Ruffy... it's just a matter of time before he gets something blown up on his chin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

The MMA Guru picks Maurício Ruffy, believing Jamie Mullarkey is on borrowed time in the UFC. He criticizes Mullarkey's recent performances and close decisions, while praising Ruffy's power, finishing ability, and toughness shown on the Contender Series. He expects Ruffy to win, possibly by knockout, and notes Ruffy's size and dangerous striking.

"I'm going to go with him to win this fight he's big he's dangerous he's got knockout ability"
TKO (punches) R1 1:44 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 2 16 of 29 55% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamie Mullarkey 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 2 16 of 29 55% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamie Mullarkey 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 16 of 29 55% 14 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 6 of 8 6 of 8
Jamie Mullarkey 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 16 of 29 55% 14 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 6 of 8 6 of 8
Jamie Mullarkey 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Nasrat Haqparast but is not confident. He notes that both fighters are similar blue-collar types, but Mullarkey's durability is a major concern. Cody points out that Mullarkey has been knocked out by lesser power punchers and Haqparast, while not a huge power puncher, can land enough. He also criticizes Haqparast for being an overpriced favorite who often underperforms. Cody says he doesn't like the fight and is not rushing to bet it.

"I will take hack PR but I don't like it I really don't like it but I really don't like Malarkey"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)
Nasrat Haqparast

Lucrative James thinks Nasrat's boxing will be too sharp for Mullarkey, especially given Mullarkey's recent KO loss and apparent chin deterioration. However, he questions his own objectivity, wondering if recency bias is skewing his view. He notes that Nasrat can be taken down and doesn't rate either fighter highly, so he is passing on betting. He picks Nasrat to win by KO but with low confidence.

KO
"I think his boxing is going to be too sharp for Jamie Malak"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul also picks Haqparast but is hesitant. He mentions Mullarkey's questionable durability and Haqparast's volume advantage. Paul notes that Haqparast is a career underachiever and often wins close decisions. He doesn't trust Mullarkey with his money but isn't excited about Haqparast either.

"I don't know if I can trust Jamie Malarkey with my own money um I'm gonna pick nazra but it's not a fight I'm rushing to bet"
WIN vs John Makdessi
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 0 88 of 179 49% 88 of 179 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 83 of 188 44% 85 of 190 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 24 of 51 47% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 37 of 62 59% 37 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 21 of 61 34% 21 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 29 of 72 40% 29 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 38 of 76 50% 40 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 88 of 179 49% 38 of 120 13 of 20 37 of 39 88 of 179 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 83 of 188 44% 37 of 119 22 of 45 24 of 24 83 of 188 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 22 of 45 48% 5 of 24 4 of 8 13 of 13 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 24 of 51 47% 6 of 27 10 of 16 8 of 8 24 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamie Mullarkey 37 of 62 59% 17 of 40 8 of 10 12 of 12 37 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 21 of 61 34% 11 of 40 5 of 16 5 of 5 21 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 29 of 72 40% 16 of 56 1 of 2 12 of 14 29 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 38 of 76 50% 20 of 52 7 of 13 11 of 11 38 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but hates the -180 price. He notes that Jamie's relentless pressure and takedown attempts should get him a close decision, but he is not dangerous and has poor chin. John Makdessi has good takedown defense and if he keeps it standing, he wins. Angelo avoids betting on Jamie despite picking him.

Avoid betting at -180
"I'm gonna pick him but minus 180. that I mean that's that's on a fully eyebrow guy that's good at multiple things in fighting that's not on"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
John Makdessi

Big Brady picks the underdog John Makdessi, citing his durability, high volume, and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Mullarkey is hittable and has a questionable chin. He thinks Makdessi can outwork Mullarkey over three rounds and predicts a decision win.

"I'm actually going to take the dog and mcessee to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey but is hesitant, noting that Mullarkey has a suspect chin and has been knocked out recently. However, he believes Mullarkey's wrestling and size advantage will be too much for Makdessi, who is a natural featherweight with no knockout power. Cody likes the Mullarkey by decision prop and the over on takedowns.

Mullarkey by decision (+115); Mullarkey over 1.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"I don't want to bet Malarkey at this price I don't I'm not I just don't see any world yeah I just don't see any world where I'm getting in on John mcdessie"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Daniel Levi picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not crazy about the price. He notes that Makdessi is 38 and has been in many wars, while Mullarkey is younger and has a reach advantage. However, Mullarkey has been knocked out four times, which is a concern. Levi expects Mullarkey to outwork Makdessi down the stretch if he fights with aggression.

Odds mentioned: Mullarkey minus 260, Makdessi plus 220.
"I see a situation where Jamie is just a little bit grittier kind of outworks him a bit and just puts it on him down the stretch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Lucrative James leans toward Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth, tenacity, and a decent win over Prado. He acknowledges Makdessi could win a split decision but notes Makdessi is old and doesn't have knockout power. James expresses slight concern about Mullarkey's chin after a knockout loss, but believes Makdessi is unlikely to finish him. He thinks Mullarkey will dominate.

"Malarkey should win he's a lot younger he's a lot more he's a lot more tenacious"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey has improved significantly, blending takedowns behind his striking and managing distance well. He works with the City Kickboxing camp. Makdessi is a veteran who makes fights close but is 38 and may be slowing down. Mullarkey's output and wrestling should earn him a decision win. The over 2.5 rounds is preferred over the moneyline.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm looking for a output and wrestling approach from Malarkey to get his hand raised I would much rather the over two and a half than the Malarkey money line here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul picks Mullarkey but is hesitant, citing Mullarkey's durability issues and the -280 price. He notes that Makdessi is a small lightweight with no recent finishes and that Mullarkey should use his wrestling to secure a decision. Paul likes the Mullarkey by decision prop and the over on takedowns.

Mullarkey by decision (+115); Mullarkey over 1.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"I think Malarkey's job here is uses bigger frame forces Up Against the Cage don't just kind of have a tick for tack kickboxing match with mcdess because you can lose that fight but uh secure some takedowns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over John Makdessi, citing Mullarkey's size advantage (6'0", 74" reach) and physicality. He notes that Mullarkey bullies smaller opponents, as seen in his win over Devonte Smith with body shots and knees. Makdessi is 38 and coming off a loss to Nasrat Haqparast. He believes Mullarkey will bully Makdessi and get a TKO in the first or second round, as Makdessi cannot grapple with him or knock him out.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I got Jamie Malarkey over John mcdess"
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
TKO (punches) R2 2:59 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 71 54% 40 of 73 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:28
Jamie Mullarkey 1 28 of 70 40% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:41
Jamie Mullarkey 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 16 of 26 61% 16 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Jamie Mullarkey 1 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 39 of 71 54% 15 of 43 14 of 18 10 of 10 27 of 56 12 of 14 0 of 1
Jamie Mullarkey 28 of 70 40% 17 of 56 5 of 8 6 of 6 20 of 60 3 of 5 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 23 of 45 51% 5 of 24 11 of 14 7 of 7 15 of 34 8 of 10 0 of 1
Jamie Mullarkey 16 of 35 45% 7 of 24 4 of 6 5 of 5 13 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 16 of 26 61% 10 of 19 3 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0
Jamie Mullarkey 12 of 35 34% 10 of 32 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 29 0 of 1 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Mullarkey due to short notice for Naimov, but is not touching the odds (-590). He thinks Mullarkey is a jack of all trades and should win, but Naimov is decent and could cause trouble. He notes Mullarkey was preparing for a good striker, so his grappling should be on point. He is not confident enough to bet.

"I do think Jamie Mark is going to win it is short notice but I'm not touching these odds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey, noting his favorable matchup after originally facing a tough wrestler. He highlights Mullarkey's solid cardio, ground game, and power. Cody recalls Naimov's poor Contender Series performance where he was outwrestled and out struck. He thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and durability will be too much for Naimov, even if Naimov has a puncher's chance.

"the pick the 100 Jamie Malarkey minus 400 it's kind of steamed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor picks Mullarkey, agreeing with the size and short-notice factors. He notes that Naimov's game is based on pocket exchanges and clinch knees, but Mullarkey's toughness and ability to survive should allow him to take over. Connor also points out that Naimov struggles when pressured, and Mullarkey can put his foot on the gas.

Mentions Naimov is on short notice and a natural featherweight.
"I'll take malarkey. I mean, I think there's also the possibility that he does surprise him with a takedown."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Daniel picks Mullarkey, noting that Naimov is a step up in competition and Mullarkey's experience should carry him. He acknowledges the line is high but thinks Mullarkey can use wrestling to control the fight. He mentions that Naimov showed cardio issues in his Contender Series fight, gassing in the third round.

"I think his experience should probably carry him through this one"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Jacob picks Mullarkey, believing the path to victory via wrestling is obvious. He thinks Naimov is dangerous with unorthodox striking, but Mullarkey should grapple early and win easily. Jacob notes Mullarkey has more power than people think and is a tough matchup. He is confident Mullarkey wins but acknowledges the odds are too high.

"the path for victory for Jamie Malarkey is just too obvious in my mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with a well-rounded game. Naimov is a short-notice debutant with questionable cardio and level of competition. Mullarkey will mix striking and grappling, pull ahead later, and win by decision. The odds are too high (-350), but Mullarkey should win.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think that Malarkey in terms of a prediction is going to be the side I end up going with also the over two and a half I can see a lot of grappling situations"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul picks Mullarkey confidently despite the high price. He notes Mullarkey's toughness, having been dropped by Michael Johnson and recovered. Paul thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and cardio are superior, and that Naimov's Contender Series performance was unimpressive. He expects Mullarkey to take Naimov down, grind him out, and get a TKO in the second or third round. Paul acknowledges the price is steep but sees Mullarkey as safe.

"Malarkey minus 400 I guess is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, calling this the main event for him. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey looked good in his last win but that Michael Johnson arguably beat him. He believes Naimov is a different level, with a split decision win over Damir Ismagulov and a win over Matteus Gamrot. He thinks Naimov's body kicks will be key, as Mullarkey keeps his guard high, leaving the body open. He predicts Naimov will open up shots to the head after body work.

"I think he does beat Jamie Malarkey because if there's one thing I've noticed about Jamie Malarkey's game..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane picks Mullarkey, citing his size advantage and toughness. He notes that Naimov is a natural featherweight taking the fight on short notice, and his blitzing style may not work against Mullarkey's durability. Zane expects Mullarkey to weather any early storm and take over with his range-based game.

Mentions Naimov is on short notice and a natural featherweight.
"I'm just going to pick Malarkey to be... he's incredibly tough."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 0 59 of 104 56% 78 of 126 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:47
Francisco Prado 0 28 of 75 37% 31 of 78 0 of 2 0% 1 1 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 0 15 of 20 75% 32 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
Francisco Prado 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 25 of 49 51% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 19 of 35 54% 21 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
Francisco Prado 0 8 of 25 32% 9 of 26 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 59 of 104 56% 28 of 70 13 of 14 18 of 20 49 of 92 0 of 0 10 of 12
Francisco Prado 28 of 75 37% 18 of 58 4 of 10 6 of 7 28 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 15 of 20 75% 10 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 9
Francisco Prado 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamie Mullarkey 25 of 49 51% 11 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 25 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 13 of 38 34% 7 of 28 1 of 4 5 of 6 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 19 of 35 54% 7 of 22 4 of 5 8 of 8 17 of 32 0 of 0 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 8 of 25 32% 6 of 21 2 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not confident, as he worries about Mullarkey's willingness to engage in a striking battle with the explosive Francisco Prado. He notes that Mullarkey should stick to grappling to avoid Prado's power, but the hometown crowd might encourage him to strike. He is not betting on Mullarkey at the current odds.

"the pick's gonna be Jamie malarkey I am not betting on Jamie Malarkey especially not at these odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady acknowledges Prado's danger early but thinks Mullarkey can weather the storm and break Prado in the second round. He compares it to Mullarkey's fight with Devonte Smith, where Mullarkey pressured and went to the body. He notes both are hittable but expects a finish, leaning Mullarkey by knockout in round 2.

second round knockout
"I'm leaning Malarkey in that second round to get that knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody is confident Mullarkey wins, citing Prado's low level of competition and questionable cardio. He notes Mullarkey is a proven UFC veteran who can grind out wins with takedowns and pressure. He thinks Prado's undefeated record is built on cans and he will be overwhelmed by the step up in competition.

"gotta go with Jamie cut the Malarkey but again it's just like the kind of price tag you don't overly want to pay"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Prado a certified can crusher with potential but lacking training. He notes that Mullarkey is a naturally aggressive fighter who doesn't know he's not good enough, which allows him to compete at a high level. Connor expects Mullarkey to dominate Prado everywhere.

"I don't have a lot to add to that breakdown. I think we tend we have a way we tend to go with certified can crushers."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey's experience and cardio will be too much for the short-notice debutant Prado. Prado is athletic but green, and his success has come against lower competition. Mullarkey can weather the early storm, then take over with grappling and pressure. Prado will likely gas by the second round. Mullarkey's durability and length allow him to evade Prado's power shots. Expect a finish in the third round via TKO or submission.

"I think we'll see Malarkey evade those big shots I think we'll see Malarkey look to get his grappling going to try to keep protostatic try to stay away and nullify that big knockout power of Prado"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul agrees Mullarkey is the pick, noting Prado is young (20) and making a huge jump from regional scene to UFC pay-per-view. He thinks Mullarkey's experience and pressure will be too much. He is not excited about the -270 price but sees Mullarkey as a safe parlay piece.

"I'm with you malarkey"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado, noting Mullarkey's toughness and improvement. He expects Prado to come out strong but fade, and Mullarkey to finish with knees to the body in the clinch in the second round, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.

second round KO via knees to the body
"I'm gonna go Jamie Malarkey TKO in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane picks Mullarkey confidently, stating that Prado is a manufactured prospect with padded record and cannot wrestle. He notes that Mullarkey is hyper-aggressive and will take Prado down and out-wrestle him. Zane also thinks Mullarkey's attitude will be a rude awakening for Prado, and that even on the feet, Mullarkey will shock Prado with his aggression.

"Francisco Prado says me talking about it. He's just gonna get mopped."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 1 66 of 190 34% 68 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
Michael Johnson 0 96 of 217 44% 96 of 218 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 1 18 of 42 42% 20 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Michael Johnson 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 45 of 95 47% 45 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 30 of 91 32% 30 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Michael Johnson 0 31 of 69 44% 31 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 66 of 190 34% 42 of 147 22 of 41 2 of 2 58 of 179 4 of 5 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 96 of 217 44% 54 of 160 21 of 34 21 of 23 83 of 195 11 of 18 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 42 42% 12 of 33 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 4 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 20 of 53 37% 10 of 37 3 of 9 7 of 7 18 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 4
2 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 57 31% 11 of 44 6 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 45 of 95 47% 24 of 69 11 of 15 10 of 11 34 of 79 11 of 16 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 30 of 91 32% 19 of 70 11 of 21 0 of 0 30 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 31 of 69 44% 20 of 54 7 of 10 4 of 5 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.

Moneyline bet on Michael Johnson as underdog.
"I think he wins this fight... I think I'm going money line bet on michael johnson as well two to one underdog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.

"i'm going to take jamie malarkey to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.

"sign me up for jamie malarkey but again the price tag is not great and i wouldn't fault anybody for for banking on michael johnson's uh great footwork and huge power"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)
Michael Johnson

The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.

1 unit on Johnson moneyline +225. Also 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -174. Parlay includes under 2.5 for this fight.
"I'm also going to go one unit on Michael Johnson plus 225. again a value play here in a sense I think he's the better Striker than malarkey I think he's faster than malarkey I think he can knock him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.

"i'm kind of i kind of want to bet the underdog here but i don't want to pull the trigger on michael johnson because the guy's an absolute flake"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.

finish in round three
"I got to go with Jamie Mullarkey here."
Expert Picks (3)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Nasrat Haqparast but is not confident. He notes that both fighters are similar blue-collar types, but Mullarkey's durability is a major concern. Cody points out that Mullarkey has been knocked out by lesser power punchers and Haqparast, while not a huge power puncher, can land enough. He also criticizes Haqparast for being an overpriced favorite who often underperforms. Cody says he doesn't like the fight and is not rushing to bet it.

"I will take hack PR but I don't like it I really don't like it but I really don't like Malarkey"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)
Nasrat Haqparast

Lucrative James thinks Nasrat's boxing will be too sharp for Mullarkey, especially given Mullarkey's recent KO loss and apparent chin deterioration. However, he questions his own objectivity, wondering if recency bias is skewing his view. He notes that Nasrat can be taken down and doesn't rate either fighter highly, so he is passing on betting. He picks Nasrat to win by KO but with low confidence.

KO
"I think his boxing is going to be too sharp for Jamie Malak"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul also picks Haqparast but is hesitant. He mentions Mullarkey's questionable durability and Haqparast's volume advantage. Paul notes that Haqparast is a career underachiever and often wins close decisions. He doesn't trust Mullarkey with his money but isn't excited about Haqparast either.

"I don't know if I can trust Jamie Malarkey with my own money um I'm gonna pick nazra but it's not a fight I'm rushing to bet"