UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026 · Flyweight · Scheduled
Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 26
Height 5' 4"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Brandon Royval
5.54 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
0.65 TD Avg
75.0% TD Acc.
45.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Lone'er Kavanagh
4.13 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.49 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.12 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
94.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Brandon Royval
Moneyline
1xBet +165
Lone'er Kavanagh
Moneyline
1xBet -172
Brandon Royval - Fight History
SCHED vs Lone'er Kavanagh
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
LOSS vs Manel Kape
KO R1 3:18 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Manel Kape 1 17 of 23 73% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Manel Kape 1 17 of 23 73% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 17 of 26 65% 5 of 10 6 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manel Kape 17 of 23 73% 6 of 10 5 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 17 of 26 65% 5 of 10 6 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manel Kape 17 of 23 73% 6 of 10 5 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-300); Royval (+240)

Round 1
This main event is a flyweight tilt many have circled on the calendar the day it was announced. Always in a wild scrap, Royval (17-8, 7-4 UFC) has reached all but the pinnacle of his division as bounces around the top five. After some delays and scrubbed pairings, he finally gets to take on the brick-fisted Kape (21-7, 6-3 UFC). The talk is over, the prep is finished, and it’s time for some action. Referee Herb Dean ushers the two to the center of the Octagon to issue final instructions and elicit a glove touch, which is heard and answered by the athletes. It’s on with the show, this being the final UFC bout on ESPN (unless they sign back with ESPN in 2033).
Kape marches Royval down immediately lobbing a hard calf kick at him to greet him. Royval answers him back. Violent pleasantries exchanged, the two get to it for real. Royval lands a side kick to the ribs, and Kape keeps targeting the lead leg. Royval answers in kind, and swipes out with a right hand on the way back. Kape chips at the front wheel once more with his low kick, and Royval makes sure to pay him back immediately. Royval lets rip a body kick that lands with a loud slap, and he kicks with the other leg which makes a thumping sound instead. Royval punches his way into a low kick combination, and he tags Kape upstairs to interrupt a combo. Another hefty body kick from “Raw Dawg” lands flush, who then targets the calf. Kape swings himself off-balance with a big kick, gathering himself in time to dodge a kick flying at his face.
Royval tosses up a high kick, and Kape rushes him. Something appears to bother Kape, who has to suddenly back off and put his hand on the fence. Oddly enough, the same thing happens to Royval, who looks to have jammed his toes on a kick. Kape walks him down and blasts him in the face with a ferocious right hand that puts him down for the count. “Starboy” unleashes a final barrage of fists while Royval tries to sit up and recover, knocking the Factory X fighter clean out and then switching him back online again. Dean sees when Royval goes limp a second time, and he intervenes. Royval is trying to stand at the time, but he is on wobbled legs and thinks to protest but decides against it. Cooler heads bring him over to his corner so that he can sit down and talk to his team now that the fight is over, and Kape hurries over to talk to someone seated outside of the cage. Ending the ESPN era with one destructive flurry, Kape ties the UFC flyweight record for the most knockouts in divisional history, tying Joe Benavidez with five.
The triumphant Kape challenges new flyweight king Joshua Van for his belt, claiming that he will, and we can’t make this up, “take his diapers.” Sometimes these things happen in MMA. With this 12-fight show in the books, the ESPN era of the UFC is now complete. With the winter break upcoming, there will be a whopping six weeks until the next UFC card on Jan. 24, a gap with no events not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic shut the sport down for a few months in 2020. There will be a few more major fight cards in 2025, with PFL Africa next week and Rizin’s NYE spectacular coming up soon. We will be there for them, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Brandon Royval R1 3:18 via KO (Punches)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Royval as a plus money underdog, citing his infinite cardio, pressure, and volume. He believes Royval's improved striking and grappling will allow him to outwork Kape over five rounds, especially in deeper waters. He notes Kape's power but thinks Royval's chin can hold up and that Royval will win a close decision by outlanding him in significant strikes.

"I am going to chase that plus money on Brandon Royval. It's a five-round fight. And again, as far as I'm concerned, Brandon Royval is built for these 25-minute long fights."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Lucrative James picks Manel Kape confidently, arguing that Brandon Royval's aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays into Kape's hands. He notes Kape's superior boxing, timing, and power, and believes Kape will hurt Royval multiple times, though a knockout is uncertain given Royval's durability. He projects Kape as a -250 favorite.

"I'm going to pick Manel Cape in this fight. I'm going to pick Minnel Cape fairly confidently in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Paul agrees with Cody, also taking Royval at plus 250. He highlights the Felipe dos Santos fight as evidence that Kape can be pushed in a striking battle, and doubts Kape can maintain high volume for 25 minutes. He sees Royval's durability and output as key factors.

"It's Brandon Royval plus 250 for me as well."
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 215 of 467 46% 216 of 468 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 1 204 of 305 66% 209 of 311 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 42 of 116 36% 42 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 0 52 of 79 65% 52 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Royval 0 87 of 174 50% 87 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 0 74 of 106 69% 77 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Royval 0 86 of 177 48% 87 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 1 78 of 120 65% 80 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 215 of 467 46% 179 of 422 22 of 27 14 of 18 205 of 451 10 of 16 0 of 0
Joshua Van 204 of 305 66% 138 of 232 37 of 43 29 of 30 181 of 270 20 of 27 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 42 of 116 36% 27 of 95 6 of 10 9 of 11 41 of 114 1 of 2 0 of 0
Joshua Van 52 of 79 65% 31 of 55 9 of 12 12 of 12 46 of 71 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Brandon Royval 87 of 174 50% 77 of 163 7 of 7 3 of 4 81 of 165 6 of 9 0 of 0
Joshua Van 74 of 106 69% 50 of 81 18 of 19 6 of 6 65 of 95 9 of 11 0 of 0
3 Brandon Royval 86 of 177 48% 75 of 164 9 of 10 2 of 3 83 of 172 3 of 5 0 of 0
Joshua Van 78 of 120 65% 57 of 96 10 of 12 11 of 12 70 of 104 5 of 8 3 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-120), Royval (+100)

Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night,” flyweights roll the dice to see who may get the next crack at the champ. As it turns out, this de facto tournament will be resolved one bout later, when Alexandre Pantoja rematches Kai Kara-France for the throne. Having come up short in 2023, and already 0-2 against the champ Pantoja, Royval (17-7, 7-3 UFC) more than likely hopes there will be change in beltholder in about an hour. Looking to spoil the party of “Raw Dawg” will be the fast-rising 23-year-old Van (14-2, 7-1 UFC), who has shot up the ranks like a cannon and takes this bout on short notice. Despite that, Van is the betting favorite. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things on the up-and-up, although they kick off with a sporting fist bump.
Royval probes with his jab and sets up an early low kick. He digs a kick to the ribcage and goes back low to the calf on either side. Royval uses his reach to keep the younger man at bay, chipping away at him from a safe distance. For the first minute, Van is doing nothing more than taking potshots. Royval goes to the body again with his toes extended, and he rushes forward into the awaiting right hand from the 23-year-old. Van catches Royval twice more with his big right hand, and Royval shrugs them off and continues doing work from the outside. Royval splits the guard with jab after unanswered jab, moving and evading to not let Van get to him. Van misses on a right hand, and Royval clips him with his own short right hook. Van strikes the body with a right, and Royval reaches his target with jabs and a short check hook.
Van lands multiple blistering right hands, hitting “Raw Dawg” much harder than Royval has struck him yet. Royval goes to the body with a kick as he skirts away, and Van reaches him with a right. Van knocks Royval to his seat, although Royval stumbled on the way out. He bounces back to his feet, and Van is ready to crack him with another heavy right. Any time Royval closes the distance, Van has a right hand awaiting him. Van gets Royval’s attention twice, and Royval knees him hard in the chest. Van knocks Royval back a step with two powerful right hands on the cheek, and a third connects when Royval puts hands on him. Royval gets up close and personal, and although he delivers a single knee, Van rips the midsection with several fast fists. The strikes have marked up Royval’s nose, who does not appear concerned after getting hit hard. He potshots Van a few more times until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 2
The fighters tap gloves before engaging, and Royval gets right back to his high-volume, low-power approach. He jams Van in the sternum with a smattering of knees before backing off, where he takes a right hand on the way out. The two swing at one another, forming a cloud of feet and fists reminiscent of an Andy Capp comic. Van drills Royval at the end of two right hands, only to eat a sharp knee on the jaw. Royval drives him back with a flurry, and his body kick allows him to get in and swing a left. Royval stings Van with a straight left, and Van comes over the top with a right. Van gets off a clubbing right in the midst of Royval’s jab-a-palooza, and he absorbs a low kick and two powerful uppercuts. Royval plants a one-two on the chin to shake up the youngster from Myanmar, and he opens up with several more punches. Van stands in the pocket and bangs with him, with Royval getting knocked back and needing to reset, his nose leaking.
Royval starts putting more behind his punches, and Van is still hurling with power. The stats are racking up fast, and Van’s right hand is a weapon that seemingly cannot miss. Van drives a knee to the chest and follows with an overhand right, and Royval rifles off a number of piston-like jabs. Van misses with his right, and Royval works him with three speedy punches. Royval’s right cheek shows damage, and he gets stood up in a combo. Royval lets jab after jab land on the nose, and he follows with long, straight left hands. Van attacks the body, and just when he is about to gain momentum, Royval is on him with a powerful salvo. They continue to unload into one another’s faces, stealing the hearts of the crowd. Royval walks straight through a hard combination, fires back and gets staggered ever-so briefly. Royval goes to the body, and they swing it out to the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 3
The flyweights tap gloves, and it takes nary a second for Royval to get behind his jab. He sways to avoid the worst of a right hand and fires back with a one-two. Van connects with a quick left hook, shaking Royval up with two more punches but eating a few on the way out. Van reaches out with a right hand, and he allows Royval to close in so he can smash him in the temple with his overhand right. Royval surges forward behind long arms, ignoring a few body shots to put his fists on Van’s face. Van cracks him with a huge right hand, and Royval just smiles. Royval drops a body kick on his foe, and they take a moment to compose themselves before going for broke again. Van lands a one-two, and Royval pays him right back with a knee up the middle and a few fiery fists back. Van gets in tight for a second to land body shots, and Royval disengages.
Royval drives four punches him, and Van drills him with a right hand that surprises Royval. The Factory x fighter takes a hard leg kick and goes to the body with his shin. The two brawl it out, and Royval may be bloody in the nose but he is not slowing down. Van digs a kick to the body, and Royval reaches him with a left. Van pays him back with a combo, and Royval gets in his face with a flurry. Royval goes to the body with a kick, and Van counters him up top. Royval strings together a three-punch combo, and he darts away before Van reaches him. Van stumbles his opponent with his power right, and he knees Royval in the nose. Royval checks a kick and crashes the pocket with an uppercut and several more punches. Van kicks Royval’s leg out, and he swings a right hand over the top. He catches Royval on the way in with a left, and Royval is not about to let him off the hook. With 15 seconds to go, the two batter and smash one another. Van knocks “Raw Dawg” to the mat in an insane exchange, following the former title challenger down to the mat and hammering him until time expires. What an incredible fight! Royval was hurt but made it to the end, and a new challenger has emerged. The flyweights delivered easily one of the best fights of the year, giving it everything they had and more. If only this one had two more rounds...in victory, Van proudly declares that whomever wins the title in the next match will have to go through him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval because he believes Royval is still in his prime and will be the best fighter Joshua Van has ever faced. He notes that Van's UFC record is loaded with wrestlers and lower-level guys, and the last time Van fought a predominant striker, he was finished in the third round. He placed a bet on Royval weeks ago and is confident in the pick.

Angelo says he placed a bet on Royval a few weeks ago.
"I think Royval wins here. I've got a bet on Royval, and I placed that bet a few weeks ago."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady believes Royval is underrated, citing his wins over top competition like Taira, Moreno, and Nicolau. He notes Van has durability concerns, having been knocked out by Charles Johnson and hurt by Edgar Chairez. Brady thinks Royval's experience, cardio, and grappling advantage will be key, and predicts Royval will hurt Van, who will then shoot for a takedown and get submitted. He picks Royval by second-round submission.

Royval wins by second round submission
"I'll go Brandon Roy Val. Brandon Royal by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Connor initially wanted to pick Van but was convinced by Phil that Royval's style is a bad matchup for Van. He notes that Royval has become a long-range volume fighter who can frustrate opponents, and Van has struggled against tall, rangy fighters. He also mentions Royval's durability and pace as factors. However, he is not fully confident because Royval's style is not championship-level and he gives away a lot.

"I think I'm going to go with Rival and just say that the quick turnaround is going to be too much for van and that the, that Rival can put out pace round after round and at a range that …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joshua Van

The host acknowledges Royval's unorthodox striking may cause early trouble, but expects Van to land big shots in the second and third rounds, possibly getting a late TKO, but ultimately winning on the scorecards in the biggest win of his career.

win on scorecards, possible late TKO
"I expect Van to eventually touch up Brandon Roy Val, land those big shots, especially in the second and third round, maybe find a TKO late, but I think the 23-year-old ends up going on to win this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joshua Van

The host picks Joshua Van, praising his boxing, head movement, and body work. He notes that Royval's volume often lacks sting and that Van's activity and recent form are advantages. He predicts Van will win a decision, taking the first two rounds, while Royval may take the third.

decision
"I'm going to go with Joshua Van. I think his boxing would be great. I think he can find the body very well here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Zane is also leaning towards Royval after being convinced by Phil. He notes that Royval's leaf-blower style at range could be problematic for Van, who has struggled against fighters who keep him at distance. He also mentions that Royval is durable and has a high pace. However, he is not confident because Royval's style is not impressive and Van could potentially overwhelm him if he gets inside.

"I kind of have just sold you on this, the way Phil sold me, because I was also thinking like, yeah, I'm like you, I'm not super impressed by Rival's game, but on reflection, he may in fact, be one …"
WIN vs Tatsuro Taira
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 124 of 232 53% 172 of 287 3 of 3 100% 3 2 2:23
Tatsuro Taira 0 42 of 99 42% 80 of 143 6 of 15 40% 1 0 12:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tatsuro Taira 0 10 of 22 45% 11 of 24 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
2 Brandon Royval 0 3 of 14 21% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tatsuro Taira 0 5 of 7 71% 29 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:10
3 Brandon Royval 0 56 of 78 71% 81 of 105 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Tatsuro Taira 0 5 of 21 23% 7 of 23 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:45
4 Brandon Royval 0 5 of 11 45% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tatsuro Taira 0 8 of 13 61% 18 of 25 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:29
5 Brandon Royval 0 43 of 74 58% 57 of 93 1 of 1 100% 2 2 1:26
Tatsuro Taira 0 14 of 36 38% 15 of 37 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 124 of 232 53% 114 of 216 10 of 16 0 of 0 97 of 203 11 of 12 16 of 17
Tatsuro Taira 42 of 99 42% 34 of 91 5 of 5 3 of 3 38 of 93 0 of 1 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 17 of 55 30% 12 of 46 5 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tatsuro Taira 10 of 22 45% 6 of 18 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brandon Royval 3 of 14 21% 1 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tatsuro Taira 5 of 7 71% 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Brandon Royval 56 of 78 71% 54 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0 32 of 52 9 of 10 15 of 16
Tatsuro Taira 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Brandon Royval 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tatsuro Taira 8 of 13 61% 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 4
5 Brandon Royval 43 of 74 58% 43 of 73 0 of 1 0 of 0 41 of 72 1 of 1 1 of 1
Tatsuro Taira 14 of 36 38% 12 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-225), Royval (+185)

Round 1
The UFC has chosen well with this all-action flyweight scrap capping off the fight card. Fresh off a revenge win over Brandon Moreno, Royval (16-7, 6-3 UFC) is energized and fully capable of playing spoiler. Taira (16-0, 6-0 UFC) has yet to taste defeat, and his performances continue to dazzle as he works his way up the 125-pound ladder. The two are brought to the middle of the cage by referee Jason Herzog for final instructions, and they gladly bump fists before madness ensues. It’s on with the show. Royval hops in and out searching for an early jab, and he pitches out a high kick to further gauge his range. Royval has another head kick miss, and Taira tests his mettle with a light low kick. Royval connects with a body kick, and Taira changes levels on him. Royval defends with a guillotine choke, and he breaks free of the attempt with his back bouncing off the wall. Royval walks through a right hand to get off his own, and his subsequent head kick efforts continue missing. A straight left from Royval reddens the Japanese fighter’s nose, and he catches Taira coming in with another left hand. Royval kicks the body and spins around, with Taira getting off a right hand. Royval scores another body kick that does not get caught, and he snaps out a one-two to get Taira’s attention. Royval clubs his foe with a left hand, and he gets off another in short order before dancing away to a safe distance. Royval measures and clubs Taira once more with a left, having found its range with it and a body kick. Taira bends over and gets his hair buzzed with a back fist. Two more body kicks from Royval get through, and his jab splits the guard. Taira walks into a pair of punches, and he makes Royval stumble with a short combo and grabs hold of Royval from behind to drag him to the floor. Royval attacks a kneebar as soon as he hits a mat, and he transitions into a heel hook and tugs on it from the other side for an inverted variety. Taira turns but cannot get out of the leg danger, as Royval commits to it by rolling over. Taira slithers away from the submission, and Royval breaks free and darts after him with long punches before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 2
Royval is right in the center of the cage ready to pick up where he left off, and his long punches lead to a step-in knee. Taira threatens with a double, scooping Royval up and pushing off the fence to drag Royval down and take his back. Taira flattens Royval out for a moment, but Royval is a scrambler and he keeps moving any direction he can. Taira secures the body triangle to stifle the former title challenger’s escape attempts, and he slides over to take mount before stretching Royval out further. Royval scoots his way to put the wall behind him, with Taira sitting up and the leg grip still around his waist. Royval hand-fights to defend from a submission, and Taira looks to isolate a choke. Royval rolls over, turning twice until he grabs hold of Taira’s knee to spin him around. Taira further maintains control from behind, with Royval’s efforts in vain. Royval is warned for grabbing the inside of the glove, and Taira sells out for a rear-naked choke. Taira turns to the other side to further sneak it in, and Royval is able to stop these attempts for the time being. Royval sits back down with Taira holding an unorthodox grip around his shoulder, and he uses it to put Royval on his back and reassume mount. Royval spins around to escape the first bad position, and Taira deftly slides through to get his back and shut Royval down by getting in half guard. Royval attacks a leglock, forcing Taira to stand up and pull his leg away. Royval works back to his feet in the waning seconds, and one body kick is all he gets off before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 3
Fists are bumped to get going, and a more tentative Royval gets countered over the top with a left hand. Taira reaches him with another left hook over the top, and Royval slugs him in the chops with a right hand. A straight left from Royval finds its home on the jaw, and he lands another few punches and a knee when Taira shoots for a takedown. Royval defends the double with several elbows to the side of the head, and he stands Taira up with a sharp knee. Royval breaks out of the attempt and goes wild with a flurry of strikes, shaking Taira up briefly. Taira’s recoverability is excellent, as he does not back up and instead stays just out of range. Royval bears down on him with a long left and an uppercut, and his uppercut clips Taira again when Taira tries to strike back. Royval gets energized by landing flush, hurting Taira with a flurry of fists. Taira shoots desperately for a takedown when he gets hurt with a salvo from “Raw Dawg.” Taira’s takedown is used against him, as Royval throws him to the mat and works on him with hammerfists. Royval thwarts another attempt, and Taira is fading fast as the woodchipper in Royval is on him chewing him up with punches and knees. Taira goes after another takedown, and it is not effective as he ducks face-first into a clean knee. Taira drops to the mat, and Royval follows him and beats on him with hammerfists on either side of the head. Taira tries to move, and Royval circles around to take Taira’s back and get hooks in. Royval searches for an armbar, rolling to his bell to lock it down, and Taira miraculously fights his way out of the sub and turns Royval around to get his back. Taira fastens the body triangle and starts hunting for his own submission. A rear-naked choke from the Japanese youngster sneaks around the jaw of his foe, and Royval decides to punch instead of fighting the hands. Royval grits it out and survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 4
Royval is fired up after his corner very loudly and dramatically informs him that he needs to crush this kid. Taira is not about to go down lightly, and the two flyweights meet in the center of the cage and trade hands violently. When Taira gets stung, he shoots in for a takedown. Royval balances thanks in part to a fence grab, although Taira still wrests him to the mat. Taira gets his hooks in and locks down the body triangle, with Royval pulling off the fence to try to spin himself about. Taira hunts for a choke, and Royval fights the body lock and turns to his knees. Taira’s body lock remains firmly around the midsection even sitting upright, and Royval rolls but is still snared in the web. Taira softens him up from behind with punches as Royval keeps turning, and he lands an elbow as he moves from position to position. When absorbing one particularly fierce elbow, Royval turns to his stomach, and he uses two-on-one control to wriggle himself out. Taira’s savvy back control further nullifies “Raw Dawg,” and he lets Royval roll to his back to get the body triangle again. Royval fights it off on one side, but Taira fastens it on the other. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Royval sits up and is near to escape, but time expires before he can. It could be all tied up now.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 5
With five minutes left in the fight very likely even on the scorecards, Royval strikes first in the final round. Connecting with four or five early punches, Royval is forced to sprawl to stop a level change. Taira walks into a few punches after Royval stands up, and he reaches with a right but gets clubbed with an uppercut. Royval reaches out with a left hand, and he snipes Taira coming in with a few punches. Royval eats a pair of lefts to get driven back, and he slips in an uppercut. Taira swings a right hand into a takedown, and he puts Royval on his seat with three and a half minutes left in the round. Taira moves to north-south position with Royval pushing his heels off the fence to flip around. Taira nearly gets the back, but Royval reverses the position and pursues his own takedown to place Taira on his seat. Royval holds on from behind as Taira stands, and he elevates and slams the Japanese fighter down. Royval jumps on the back as Taira gets to his feet again, and slides off in a hurry. Taira breaks the grip and separates, and Royval walks him down and bloodies his foe’s nose. Taira loads up on power strikes, and Royval’s straight left remains a money punch. Royval seems to land cleanly whenever he wishes, and Taira dives after a desperate single but Royval stops it and knees his foe in the chest. Royval breaks free again and rails Taira with a step-in knee, and Taira knocks him back with a big right hand. Royval gets back in his face with a series of punches, and he gets pushed over when spinning back. Taira shoots for a double, and Royval jumps guard with a guillotine choke that he uses to roll into full mount. Royval sits up and lets Taira turn over to take his back, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke. Royval gets the body triangle at the same time, and he cranks on the neck. The neck crank does not get a tap, and tough as nails Taira survives to turn himself over. The final horn blares, and this back-and-forth battle comes to a close in an easy “Fight of the Night” candidate and one possibly worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. No matter who picks up the win, these two put on a show and stamp their places in the elite echelon of the 125-pound division.
Springing the upset, Royval showers his defeated opponent with compliments, while saying that he would be happy to do anything to further Taira’s career—a fighter that he confidently proclaims will be a champion one day. Royval states he alone deserves the next title shot at flyweight, due to wins over top-five talents Brandon Moreno, Kai Kara-France and now Taira. He asks to be backup for the Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura championship bout, or offers to fight in hostile territory to beat either man in their home country after UFC 310. If he gets the next crack at gold, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)

The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Tatsuro Taira via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval, calling himself a Tatsuro Taira hater. He notes that Taira is undefeated but hasn't beaten top competition, and that Royval's pressure and experience will be too much. He mentions Royval's win over Brandon Moreno and his ability to land strikes even when taken down. Angelo bet half a unit on Royval at +170 and is also considering a plus 5.5 bet.

Bet half a unit at +170; considering plus 5.5 bet
"I think Brandon Royal wins this fight I bet on him plus 170 those odds were just too good to pass up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira to win by decision. He notes that if it were a three-round fight, he'd be more confident, but the five rounds give him pause due to Royval's elite cardio and durability. However, Royval has terrible takedown defense (40%), and Taira's grappling control is elite. He compares it to Royval's fight with Pantoja, where Pantoja controlled him on the ground. Brady believes Taira can get takedowns at will and control rounds, though rounds 4-5 could get interesting. He expects Taira to win at least three rounds.

Taira by decision
"I'll go Tyra to win this fight and I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2025 (fight day)
Tatsuro Taira

Cody believes Taira is a believer after his performance against Royval, showing improved striking, timing, physicality, and elite grappling. He notes Taira's ability to take down Royval six times and control him, despite Royval's scrambling and cardio. Cody sees Taira as more polished and refined than Park, with five-round experience and superior competition level. He expects Taira to roll through Park.

"I'm starting to become a Tyro believer and you know me, I've tried to fade this guy a few times."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Royval's defensive wrestling is nonexistent and that Taira's grappling is a huge advantage. He notes that Royval's recent striking approach is static and ineffective, and that Taira should be able to take him down and control the fight. Connor is confident Taira wins unless he fights poorly.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think of royville's fight with kykara france... If you're facing tatsuru taira you're not going to jump the ghillie and submit tatsuru taira."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel acknowledges Taira's immense talent and undefeated record but questions if he's ready for a top-five test at age 24. He notes Royval's proven durability, pace, and experience against elite competition like Moreno and Pantoja. Daniel is tempted by the plus-190 odds on Royval and believes Taira may need to pay his dues first. He emphasizes that Royval gets better as fights progress and that Taira hasn't faced anyone with Royval's relentless pressure.

"I'm just not convinced he's that guy right now... I'm more tempted to take a small shot on Brandon Royval and see if he can set back the ultra talented Tatsuro Taira."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

The host looked for a reason to take Royval as a big underdog but couldn't due to Taira's control and grappling. Royval is more disciplined but will struggle when Taira crashes the pocket and wraps him up. The host is not super high on Taira's chalk and prefers the over 3.5 rounds, but expects Taira to control the majority of the fight via grappling and win on the scorecards.

over 3.5 rounds
"I actually like the over three and a half more than anything but I think we're going to see Taira controlling the majority of this matchup by getting it into the grappling realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2025 (fight day)
Tatsuro Taira

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Taira's striking improvement and elite grappling. He highlights Taira's ability to get to the back and control opponents, and his five-round experience against top competition. Paul thinks Taira wins more often than not even at a sizable favorite price.

"I expect him to roll through park."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval as an upset, citing his scrambling ability, pressure, and durability. He questions Taira's hype, noting close fights with Perez and Shevchenko, and believes Royval can make Taira break in a five-round fight. He expects Royval to win by late-round TKO, as Taira hasn't faced someone as lanky and rangy, and Royval has shown he can hang with top flyweights like Pantoja and Moreno.

late rounds TKO
"I am going to go Roy Val... I think he can make tayra break I think he can put pressure on him... I'm going to say Roy Val gets this one done by like late rounds TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Zane picks Taira because Royval's defensive wrestling is terrible and Taira is a good takedown artist with dangerous ground control. He notes that Royval's striking volume is often ineffective and that Taira can find takedowns consistently. Zane believes Royval's only path is if Taira fights terribly, but otherwise Taira should win.

Royval opened at +170, now +213; Taira opened at -194, now -248. Odds drifting Taira's way.
"I am going to be picking tatsura taira. I think he is going to have all kinds of ways of finding takedowns on royville and it's just really is a question of if he goes for them consistently and I …"
Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 112 of 211 53% 119 of 219 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:54
Brandon Moreno 0 145 of 510 28% 177 of 556 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 15 of 23 65% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brandon Moreno 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Royval 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
Brandon Moreno 0 18 of 87 20% 22 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:27
Brandon Moreno 0 25 of 79 31% 26 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Brandon Royval 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brandon Moreno 0 49 of 161 30% 60 of 179 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
5 Brandon Royval 0 29 of 54 53% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Brandon Moreno 0 41 of 140 29% 57 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 112 of 211 53% 48 of 127 37 of 51 27 of 33 103 of 191 7 of 17 2 of 3
Brandon Moreno 145 of 510 28% 97 of 437 38 of 54 10 of 19 142 of 504 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 15 of 23 65% 6 of 12 5 of 5 4 of 6 14 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
Brandon Moreno 12 of 43 27% 6 of 31 5 of 8 1 of 4 11 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Brandon Royval 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 5 of 5 4 of 6 20 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
Brandon Moreno 18 of 87 20% 7 of 66 8 of 16 3 of 5 18 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brandon Royval 17 of 31 54% 7 of 20 4 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 2
Brandon Moreno 25 of 79 31% 13 of 61 8 of 12 4 of 6 24 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
4 Brandon Royval 29 of 58 50% 7 of 27 13 of 20 9 of 11 28 of 54 1 of 4 0 of 0
Brandon Moreno 49 of 161 30% 37 of 147 11 of 11 1 of 3 48 of 159 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Brandon Royval 29 of 54 53% 15 of 34 10 of 16 4 of 4 26 of 46 3 of 8 0 of 0
Brandon Moreno 41 of 140 29% 34 of 132 6 of 7 1 of 1 41 of 140 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Angelo is very confident in Moreno, citing his pace, toughness, and improvement since their last fight. He believes Moreno is better everywhere and will eventually break Royval, likely in the fourth or fifth round. He notes Moreno already won this fight once and will do it again at home.

likely fourth or fifth round finish
"Moreno is a very confident pick here he has already won this fight I think he wins this fight again"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He notes that Moreno has never been finished in 30 fights, which is crucial against a finisher like Royval. He believes Moreno has more paths to win, especially by taking the fight to the mat where Royval has poor takedown defense (40%). He thinks Moreno can control Royval on the ground and potentially submit him, but leans toward a decision. He questions Royval's ability to win a decision or finish Moreno.

Moreno wins by decision
"I like the minute winning ability especially on the ground for Moreno and I'll pick him to win this fight I'm torn between decision or submission um I don't know I think I'm I'm leaning more towards decision for Brandon …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Cody picks Moreno, citing Moreno's cast-iron chin, takedown ability, and the fact that Royval is coming in on short notice after a five-round war with Pantoja eight weeks ago. He notes Royval's takedown defense is a serious problem and that Moreno already beat him once. He acknowledges the line is justifiable and is not playing contrarian.

"Mareno is the favorite is he this big of a favorite it's justifiable and I'm not going to play contrarian I'll take the favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

The host expects Moreno to replicate his first fight strategy by using his wrestling advantage to control Royval on the ground. He notes Moreno's good submission defense against Royval's aggressive style. Even if the fight stays standing, Moreno is the more technical striker. He predicts Moreno will grind out a decision victory.

"I think that's going to come to fruition once again as Moreno grinds this fight out utilizing his wrestling advantage to get this Victory on the scorecards even if this fight ends up playing out in the Striking room I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moreno. He highlights Moreno's cast-iron durability as kryptonite to Royval's game, and notes that Moreno's ability to mix in takedowns will secure rounds in front of a hometown crowd. He also mentions Royval's short-notice turnaround and the altitude disadvantage, though Royval trains in Denver.

"I'll take the favorite yeah I mean the the Saving Grace as opposed four Ro Val is that he trains in Denver"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandre Pantoja 0 95 of 156 60% 126 of 195 8 of 14 57% 1 0 15:51
Brandon Royval 0 111 of 204 54% 281 of 390 0 of 1 0% 0 2 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandre Pantoja 0 27 of 40 67% 29 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:50
Brandon Royval 0 13 of 30 43% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Alexandre Pantoja 0 10 of 15 66% 24 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:44
Brandon Royval 0 12 of 16 75% 80 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandre Pantoja 0 17 of 26 65% 23 of 38 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:13
Brandon Royval 0 24 of 46 52% 63 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:06
4 Alexandre Pantoja 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 3 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:21
Brandon Royval 0 7 of 14 50% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
5 Alexandre Pantoja 0 41 of 74 55% 49 of 82 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:43
Brandon Royval 0 55 of 98 56% 70 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandre Pantoja 95 of 156 60% 49 of 101 22 of 30 24 of 25 74 of 130 5 of 6 16 of 20
Brandon Royval 111 of 204 54% 102 of 193 7 of 9 2 of 2 91 of 177 5 of 6 15 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandre Pantoja 27 of 40 67% 9 of 19 10 of 13 8 of 8 19 of 30 2 of 3 6 of 7
Brandon Royval 13 of 30 43% 11 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 1 4 of 4
2 Alexandre Pantoja 10 of 15 66% 5 of 8 4 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4
Brandon Royval 12 of 16 75% 9 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 12 1 of 1 3 of 3
3 Alexandre Pantoja 17 of 26 65% 5 of 14 6 of 6 6 of 6 15 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Brandon Royval 24 of 46 52% 21 of 43 2 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Alexandre Pantoja 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brandon Royval 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 12
5 Alexandre Pantoja 41 of 74 55% 30 of 59 2 of 5 9 of 10 34 of 65 0 of 0 7 of 9
Brandon Royval 55 of 98 56% 54 of 95 1 of 3 0 of 0 53 of 96 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Angelo picks Pantoja to win by finish in the third or fourth round, citing Pantoja's grappling advantage and Royval's low takedown defense. He notes that Pantoja already won the rematch two years ago and expects a similar outcome. He has a 'good size bet' on Pantoja.

Good size bet on Pantoja; finish in round 3 or 4
"I see Pantoja winning this fight by finish third or fourth round... I do have a good size bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Big Brady picks Pantoja to win by first-round submission, recalling their first fight where Pantoja was exhausted but capitalized on a Royval mistake to choke him out. He notes Royval's poor striking defense (50% striking defense) and tendency to make mistakes on the mat, giving up his back and position. Brady believes Pantoja's submission game is elite and that Royval cannot afford errors at this level. He expects an exciting banger but sees Pantoja finding a finish early.

"I like Pantoja here I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Royval as an underdog, citing his chaotic style, improved striking, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes that Royval trains at altitude in Denver and has solid cardio, while Pantoja's cardio is overblown but his body language looks tired. Cody acknowledges the risk: Royval has durability issues and was submitted by Pantoja before, but at +160 he sees value.

"I'm going to go with Roy Val Underdog pick here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel Vreeland picks Brandon Royval as an upset, attributing Royval's loss in the first fight to a rushed return from injury. He believes Royval's striking has improved and that his scrambles will keep the fight on the feet. Vreeland notes Royval's recent wins over Matt Schnell and Kai Kara-France by submission show his dangerous ground game. He thinks Royval can hang with Pantoja on the feet and win the rematch.

"I'm gonna go upset here I'm gonna go raw dog"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, stating he is the better fighter overall and has already beaten Royval. He questions the quality of Royval's recent opponents, noting that Pantoja has faced tougher competition. Fox believes Pantoja will successfully defend his title for the first time.

"Pantoja is my pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Lucrative James picks Brandon Royval outright. He believes Royval was breaking Pantoja in their first fight before getting submitted, and he thinks Royval's pace is the highest at flyweight. He argues that Pantoja may have been breaking and that Royval's motivation is higher as the challenger. He acknowledges Pantoja's submission threat but feels the value is on Royval as an underdog.

"I'm actually picking Brandon Royval outright... I just don't think Pantoja is going to be able to keep up with him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

The host favors Pantoja due to his discipline, technique, and masterful Jiu-Jitsu, which he believes will be too much for Royval's chaotic style. He notes that in their first fight, Pantoja consistently secured Royval's back and eventually got a rear-naked choke. He also points out Royval's poor takedown defense and expects Pantoja to get the fight to the ground and find a submission. He acknowledges Royval's upset potential but trusts the more reliable fighter.

Pantoja by submission, under 2.5 rounds
"I think pantoja's discipline technique and just overall masterful approach to his Jiu-Jitsu is going to be too much to for Roy Val here and that will allow panta to get his hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Paul picks Pantoja, arguing that Royval's level of competition is lower and that Pantoja has never been finished. He points to Pantoja's performance against Brandon Moreno where he landed 129 significant strikes, a knockdown, and six takedowns. Paul believes Pantoja's cardio issues are overblown and that Royval tends to fade in dogfights, while Pantoja is an absolute dog.

Pantoja by submission +155
"I think it's Pantoja by sub would be interesting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

The Guru picks Pantoja over Royval, noting Pantoja's improved ground control and back-taking ability, as seen against Moreno and Perez. He acknowledges Royval's scrambling but believes Pantoja's chin is solid and Royval is hittable. He predicts Pantoja will knock down Royval and secure a rear-naked choke in round one.

Pantoja by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1
"I'm going to say round one Pantoja knocks down Roy Val towards the three minute Mark and gets a rear naked choke towards the end of the round"
KO (knee and elbows) R1 2:09 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 1 13 of 22 59% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Matheus Nicolau 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 1 13 of 22 59% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Matheus Nicolau 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 13 of 22 59% 13 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 13
Matheus Nicolau 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 13 of 22 59% 13 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 13
Matheus Nicolau 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking and methodical grappling. He believes Nicolau's technical striking will overcome Royval's chaos, and that Royval won't be able to take Nicolau down, making it a kickboxing match where Nicolau shines. He notes Royval was dropped badly by Schnell. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Nicolau at -155.

half unit moneyline bet at -155
"I think his technical striking should be able to get through the chaos that Brandon Roy Val creates"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He describes Royval as a wild, unique fighter who thrives in chaos, while Nicolau is calm and composed. He believes Royval's style will force a brawl, and notes Nicolau has been knocked out before. He expects fireworks and a finish.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Roy Val to knock out Mateus nickel out here I'll say he does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Cody thinks Nicolau is technically sound and should weather Royval's early chaos. He notes Royval is dangerous early but tends to fade and is injury-prone. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.

Under 2.5 rounds (-120)
"I think eventually Mateus nicolao gets the job done here and under two and a half rounds is minus 120"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Nicolau's counter striking is excellently timed and that he has the wrestling to handle Royval's scrambles. He also notes that Nicolau is a solid positional grappler and can be the one with key switch-ups.

"I think more than most fighters that Rival tries to march down and overwhelm, he's going to find counters hard to come by here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Royval's chaos and output will overwhelm Nicolau, who tends to have close fights and low output. Royval's scrambling and submission threat create opportunities. Nicolau's discipline may crack under pressure. Royval can finish inside the distance, as his style leads to finishes. Under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds; Royval wins inside the distance
"I'm gonna go with the raw dog here as the underdog I'm going to take him to win this fight inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Paul agrees, calling Royval 'frail' and noting his tendency to get finished. He thinks Nicolau's accurate counter-striking and durability will lead to a finish or clear decision. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I'm just uh locking in under two and a half at minus 110 right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, praising his technical, composed style and BJJ background. He believes Nicolau will read Royval's wild, tornado-like approach and make him pay, potentially by submission or KO. He notes Royval's size and unpredictability but thinks Nicolau's polish and 93% takedown defense will be decisive.

Nicolau wins by finish (submission or KO)
"give me Mathias nicolao to get the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Zane picks Nicolau because he is a cleaner fighter and a better counter puncher. He notes that Nicolau has the wrestling component to his counter game, which gives him an option to interrupt Royval's relentless pressure. He also mentions that Nicolau is a bigger striker with excellent timing and can handle Royval's grappling.

"But I just think Nicolau is a cleaner. He's, he's just a better fighter than Rival, I think."
WIN vs Matt Schnell
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:14 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Matt Schnell 1 12 of 33 36% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Matt Schnell 1 12 of 33 36% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 1
Matt Schnell 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 1
Matt Schnell 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Royval (-240), Schnell (+195)

Round 1
The opener of the prelim card – which differs slightly from the early preliminaries even if they remain on the same network – is sure to be a wild one for as long as it lasts. All-action Royval (13-6, 3-2 UFC) ended the first two-fight skid of his career in January by claiming a decision over Rogerio Bontorin, while Schnell (15-5, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) will be returning to action for the first time in nearly a year since he also took on Bontorin. Of note, while Schnell did drop a decision to Bontorin that night, Bontorin tested positive for banned supplements and the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation overturned it to a no contest. Both looking to get the taste of Bontorin out of their mouths, so to speak, they touch gloves in front of referee Ryan Brueggeman to move along in their careers. Schnell starts off with a barrage of punches, and Royval greets him with punches and a head kick of his own. Royval steps in with a knee to back Schnell off, and Royval slings a few head kicks for good measure. Royval goes low and then high with kicks, and Schnell walks through them to launch a right hand. These two flyweights are swinging for the fences early, and both are connecting frequently. Schnell snaps the head back with a left hand, and Royval responds with a left of his own. Schnell bears down on him and drills Royval with a right hand, and Royval hits the ground and immediately goes fishing for a leglock. Royval rolls for a heel hook, and Schnell turns all his way around and through it to lower himself to the mat on top. Royval sets up an omoplata shoulder lock to force a sweep, and Schnell wrenches his arm free and snags hold of a guillotine choke. Royval rolls through it and looks for a brabo choke.
This does not land, so “Raw Dawg” turns it to a guillotine choke. As soon as he cinches it up, he pulls guard and locks a leg around Schnell’s waist. The grip from Royval is so crushingly tight that Schnell thinks about fighting out of it, and suddenly realizes he is in grave danger and taps out with both hands.
Brueggeman takes a moment to register the taps, and he jumps in to separate the fighters after their short but memorable thriller.

The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Matt Schnell R1 2:14 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval, citing his forward pressure and sneaky grappling as the difference. He notes that both fighters are willing to bang but Royval is a better pure grappler. He expects a potential fight of the night.

"roy val's forward pressure and sneaky grappling will be the difference here so roy val is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He believes this is a nightmare matchup for Schnell because Royval will force a brawl, and Schnell has a history of being knocked out (by Font, Sandoval, Pantoja). Schnell has changed his style to be more cautious, but Royval's pressure will drag him into a war. Royval has the striking advantage, durability, and dangerous ground game. Schnell is not a strong offensive wrestler, so he cannot exploit Royval's poor takedown defense. Brady expects Royval to finish Schnell in brutal fashion in the first round.

first round knockout
"I think royval runs through him I think roy val finishes matt schnell in the very first round if match nell's not gonna come out here and wrestle which I don't think he will I think he's in some serious …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Brandon Royval, noting that Schnell's chin is suspect and Royval's unorthodox striking and grappling are at a higher level. He points out that Royval has wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, while Schnell has beaten lower-level opposition. Cody believes Royval can win standing or on the ground, and expects a stoppage. He is confident in Royval as one of his key plays.

"i think he's the rightful guy minus 240 don't mind it i'm gonna play him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Royval's pace, pressure, and opportunistic submissions. He notes Schnell is technically sound but lacks durability and takedown ability. He considers a KO prop for Royval at +460 but does not pull the trigger.

Daniel considers a Royval KO prop at +460 but does not bet. He passes on betting altogether.
"My pick is Royvall. I'm passing all together."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Brandon Royval

The host picks Royval to win but prefers betting the under 2.5 rounds at -145. He highlights Royval's chaotic style that overwhelms opponents, using the Kai Kara-France fight as an example. He notes Schnell is technically better but will struggle with Royval's pace and unpredictability. He acknowledges Royval leaves himself vulnerable to submissions, but expects the fight to end inside the distance, likely with Royval winning. He is concerned about Royval's price at -235 and prefers the under.

under 2.5 rounds -145; fight doesn't go to decision -170
"the pick is still gonna be roy val it's just too difficult for me to trust him at minus 235 minus 240 considering how he fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Paul picks Brandon Royval and is also interested in the under 2.5 rounds. He notes that Schnell has chin issues and Royval's volume and pace could clip him. Paul thinks Royval can get a finish, but also acknowledges that Royval's own pace could lead to him wilting. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop and plans to parlay it with the Cerrone-Lauzon under.

under 2.5 rounds at -145; fight doesn't go to decision at -170
"i'm picking roy val as well to get the job done um matt schnell i i don't think i've ever picked him though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval, citing his wildness and finishing ability. He notes Royval has good submissions and KO power, and believes he will bait Schnell into a scrap and catch him. He criticizes Schnell's chin and predictable style. He predicts a first-round TKO, possibly via spinning elbow.

"i'm gonna trust in brandon royval's wildness and his ko ability in the flyweight division to get this one done over match nell"
Lone'er Kavanagh - Fight History
SCHED vs Brandon Royval
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Moreno 0 79 of 168 47% 134 of 229 0 of 8 0% 0 0 7:20
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 97 of 205 47% 136 of 245 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Moreno 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Moreno 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Moreno 0 16 of 40 40% 31 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Brandon Moreno 0 9 of 15 60% 31 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:08
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 8 of 14 57% 29 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Brandon Moreno 0 11 of 19 57% 29 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:51
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 12 of 19 63% 27 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Moreno 79 of 168 47% 51 of 133 15 of 21 13 of 14 69 of 154 10 of 14 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 97 of 205 47% 60 of 160 18 of 24 19 of 21 92 of 198 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Moreno 19 of 40 47% 14 of 34 3 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 45 40% 10 of 33 3 of 7 5 of 5 18 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brandon Moreno 24 of 54 44% 13 of 40 6 of 9 5 of 5 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 42 of 83 50% 30 of 70 5 of 6 7 of 7 39 of 78 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Brandon Moreno 16 of 40 40% 13 of 35 2 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 17 of 44 38% 11 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 2 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Brandon Moreno 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 8 4 of 7 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 8 of 14 57% 4 of 8 1 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Brandon Moreno 11 of 19 57% 6 of 14 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 12 of 19 63% 5 of 12 4 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Angelo hesitantly picks Brandon Moreno, acknowledging that Lone'er Kavanagh is fast and accurate and could give Moreno trouble early. He notes Moreno's five-round experience and toughness as key advantages, expecting him to outlast Kavanagh who may fade. He admits if it were a three-round fight with a full camp, he would pick Kavanagh.

Says he wouldn't be comfortable parlaying Moreno at almost three to one.
"I'm going to pick Moreno. I think he can just literally outlast Loner. But if this was a three round fight with a full fight camp, I'd be picking Loner Kavanaaugh right now."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno, citing his hometown advantage, experience as a former champion, and step down in competition. He notes Kavanagh looked good in the first round against Charles Johnson but faded and got knocked out. Brady believes Moreno's cardio, pressure, and minute-winning ability will lead to a decision win, possibly a late finish if Kavanagh slows down.

decision
"Give me Brandon Moreno to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Cody points out Moreno's recent stylistic changes, lack of wrestling, and potential decline. He highlights Kavanagh's speed and power, and the danger of an early knockout. Despite these concerns, he picks Moreno due to the difficulty of betting against him, but strongly advises live betting or hedging.

"I will take Mareno just where whereas the narrative seems to be it's all Moreno and this is an easy fight... I think that there's some very real danger."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Connor agrees with Zane that Moreno should win, but he is slightly less confident due to Moreno's recent inconsistent performances. He notes that Moreno sometimes makes weird mistakes and that Kavanagh is a dangerous counterpuncher with speed and accuracy. However, Connor ultimately believes Moreno's experience and ability to pressure will be too much for Kavanagh, especially given Kavanagh's stamina concerns.

Kavanagh's counterpunching threat; Moreno's occasional weird mistakes; altitude factor
"I am forced to agree."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Daniel picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing his well-rounded skills and fight IQ. He notes Moreno's takedown advantage against Royval's poor takedown defense, but acknowledges Royval's danger on the feet with unorthodox strikes. He expects Moreno to exploit takedown defense and control the fight on the ground, though he warns that Moreno has been dropped in recent fights.

"I think Brandon Moreno should get this one done too well-rounded and especially if he comes out here smart exploits that takedown defense of royval"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Brandon Moreno

The host is betting on Moreno despite his decline, because the circumstances heavily favor him. Moreno has experience fighting in Mexico City, excellent cardio, and has never been knocked out. Kavanagh is inexperienced (10 pro fights), a volume striker with no knockout power, and is fighting on short notice at high altitude. The host believes Kavanagh would need to finish Moreno or win a clear decision, both unlikely. He plans to parlay Moreno with Zellhuber.

Parlaying him with Daniel Zellhuber.
"I am happy to bet Moreno at big favorite odds here. He is on a decline. There's no doubt about it. But the probability of Kavanaaugh going to Mexico City on short notice with only 10 pro fights and getting …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

James believes Kavanagh is one of the best flyweights despite his loss to Charles Johnson, citing his speed, footwork, and counter-striking. He questions Moreno's consistency and recent performance, noting Moreno's age and potential decline. James sees value in Kavanagh at +210 odds, predicting Moreno may not push the pace needed to exploit Kavanagh's cardio concerns.

"I'm going to say that Lona Kavanaaugh is the value side here. I'm going to say Lona Cavanar is the winner of this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

The host picks Brandon Moreno inside the distance, expecting a round 4 or 5 finish. He notes Moreno's experience, cardio, and durability, and believes Kavanagh will fade in the later rounds due to altitude and short notice. He is surprised the line moved to -225 and considers it a great value. He predicts a late TKO or submission.

"Give me Brandon Moreno uh round four or five, TKO, maybe even submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Paul acknowledges Moreno's experience and cardio advantage, especially at altitude. He notes Moreno's wrestling and submission game are superior, and expects Moreno to take over in later rounds. He is puzzled by the money coming in on Kavanagh and recommends Moreno as a parlay piece, but suggests live betting for better value.

"I think Moreno's got the better wrestling and he's got the better submission game, and I think he's got the better cardio."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Brandon Moreno

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno, noting that Lone'er Kavanagh has a cardio issue and gasses after about 7 minutes. He argues that Moreno is hard to finish early and that Kavanagh's only path to victory is a first-round TKO, which is unlikely at Mexico City altitude. He predicts a late-rounds TKO for Moreno, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.

round four or five TKO
"I'm going to go with Brandon Moreno round four or five TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Zane picks Moreno because Kavanagh is not ready for this level of competition, especially on short notice and at altitude. He notes that Kavanagh's gas tank was a problem against Charles Johnson, and Moreno's experience and ability to set a comfortable tempo will likely overwhelm him. Zane also mentions that Moreno has a reach advantage and is fighting at home, which should help him make better decisions.

Kavanagh's gas tank issues at altitude; Moreno's reach advantage; Kavanagh on three weeks notice; first five-round fight for Kavanagh
"I have to pick Moreno. It's an opportunity for Kavanaugh. Like, I get why both men took this fight."
LOSS vs Charles Johnson
KO R2 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 44 of 81 54% 52 of 89 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:32
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 59 of 120 49% 60 of 121 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 14 of 25 56% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 36 of 65 55% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 56 53% 38 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 44 of 81 54% 18 of 49 6 of 10 20 of 22 37 of 71 4 of 6 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 59 of 120 49% 32 of 83 21 of 26 6 of 11 53 of 111 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 14 of 25 56% 3 of 11 2 of 4 9 of 10 14 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 36 of 65 55% 17 of 37 14 of 18 5 of 10 34 of 63 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 56 53% 15 of 38 4 of 6 11 of 12 23 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 23 of 55 41% 15 of 46 7 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 48 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.

Odds are -200 for Kavanagh; Angelo thinks Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog.
"Loner Kavanaaugh is probably the pick just given all the other circumstances."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"I'm going Kavanaaugh to win a close decision in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

odds comment: -180 is a great entry point
"We're so used to seeing Kavanaaugh at super chalky odds, but here at minus 180. I think this is a great entry point against a guy in Charles Johnson who may not have the power to get the respect from …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.

Charles Johnson by decision; underdog +170
"Charles Johnson's going to get the upset win in my opinion. He's an underdog. He's plus 170."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 58 of 97 59% 71 of 112 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:33
Felipe dos Santos 0 51 of 104 49% 92 of 147 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Felipe dos Santos 0 15 of 32 46% 23 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 29 of 51 56% 42 of 66 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:36
Felipe dos Santos 0 25 of 36 69% 45 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:18
Felipe dos Santos 0 11 of 36 30% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lone'er Kavanagh 58 of 97 59% 37 of 71 11 of 15 10 of 11 29 of 56 3 of 6 26 of 35
Felipe dos Santos 51 of 104 49% 28 of 67 9 of 21 14 of 16 28 of 77 4 of 4 19 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 11 of 23 47% 1 of 12 2 of 3 8 of 8 10 of 19 1 of 4 0 of 0
Felipe dos Santos 15 of 32 46% 3 of 12 5 of 12 7 of 8 13 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 29 of 51 56% 25 of 45 3 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 23 of 30
Felipe dos Santos 25 of 36 69% 18 of 27 3 of 4 4 of 5 8 of 16 2 of 2 15 of 18
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 23 78% 11 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 5
Felipe dos Santos 11 of 36 30% 7 of 28 1 of 5 3 of 3 7 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and composure. He acknowledges that Kavanagh hasn't faced top competition and that Felipe's forward pressure will test him. He wants to see if Kavanagh can fight backwards and counter-strike. Ultimately, he trusts Kavanagh's speed and potential, though he admits we'll learn a lot about him in this fight.

"ultimately I'm going to pick him cuz he's just so damn fast"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Brady likes Kavanagh's clean striking and power, and notes dos Santos has poor takedown defense and striking defense. He thinks Kavanagh can mix in takedowns if needed. Despite dos Santos being tough, Brady predicts a decision win for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"give me lonni Kavanagh here I do think Felipe dos Santos is very tough ... so I'll say it's a lonni Kavanagh by decision win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host considers Kavanagh one of the hottest UK prospects and expects him to showcase his skills. Dos Santos might make it close early, but as Kavanagh's damage piles up, he will cause dos Santos to break, leading to a late finish or decision win.

late finish or decision
"Kavanagh is one of the hottest prospects to come out of the UK in a while and I think that he'll be able to showcase those chops here against dos Santos."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh, believing he is crisper on the feet and has good grappling instincts. He notes that Kavanagh is compact and beats opponents to the punch, while dos Santos has been in many scraps and may be more damaged. He expects a TKO in the second or third round, as Kavanagh's pressure and body work will wear down dos Santos.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Lona kavana over Felipe dos Santos I think Lona kavar would smoke Victor Al Morana"
WIN vs Jose Ochoa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 51 of 126 40% 51 of 126 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 50 of 158 31% 59 of 168 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 21 of 45 46% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 19 of 44 43% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 20 of 60 33% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:33
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 11 of 54 20% 11 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lone'er Kavanagh 51 of 126 40% 24 of 74 12 of 28 15 of 24 50 of 124 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 50 of 158 31% 13 of 78 13 of 40 24 of 40 49 of 156 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 21 of 45 46% 6 of 21 4 of 10 11 of 14 21 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 19 of 44 43% 3 of 19 2 of 6 14 of 19 19 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 46 39% 9 of 28 7 of 11 2 of 7 17 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 20 of 60 33% 7 of 29 6 of 20 7 of 11 19 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 12 of 35 34% 9 of 25 1 of 7 2 of 3 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 11 of 54 20% 3 of 30 5 of 14 3 of 10 11 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Jose Ochoa

Round 1
A pair of unbeaten newcomers with seven wins apiece meet in hopes of keeping their spotless records intact. The prospects of Kavanagh (7-0, 0-0 UFC) are high, with many calling for him to get a call up to the big leagues after wiping out Davide Scarano with a spinning back kick in 2023. It took a bit longer than he expected, but he made it, and he meets Ochoa (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While the Brit has heard the final bell in the past, Ochoa has never even fought into the third round. Referee Mark Craig will have his hands full with these flyweights for as long as it goes. They share a sporting glove touch to get started, and Kavanagh strikes first with a low kick. Kavanagh parries the jabs Ochoa is setting up, ignoring a stomping kick to his knees so he can work his way in. Kavanagh has to hop back to block a head kick, and he presses forward with a push kick. Ochoa chops at the lead leg with a kick, and Kavanagh responds in kind. A head kick buzzes past Ochoa’s face in the blink of an eye, with the Peruvian looking at it with bemusement. Kavanagh chips at the front leg, and Ochoa does the same as they do not set up much else. Kavanagh nails the lead leg with a kick that makes Ochoa recoil it, and he dodges a counter right over the top when loosing a body kick. Kavanagh blocks a front kick and whiffs with a head kick, and he sees Ochoa come barreling towards him and blonks him on the head with a right hook. The Peruvian wears it well and lets fly a head kick that is blocked, with the two going tit-for-tat against one another. Ochoa connects with two leg kicks, and the crowd starts wooing as it is not entertained. Both fighters come up short on power strikes, with Kavanagh eventually reaching with a leg kick and then one to the ribs. Kavanagh closes in when Ochoa attempts a spinning back fist, and he chews up the inside and outside of Ochoa’s right leg with kicks. Ochoa goes wide with a haymaker, and Kavanagh slips the strikes and responds with a left hook that cuts Ochoa’s right eye. In a flurry of strikes, a Kavanagh kick does not find the right area and instead blasts Ochoa square in the family jewels. Ochoa walks off in pain, and Kavanagh knows what he did and apologizes. Craig calls time and tells Ochoa he has plenty of time to recover, and Ochoa is not having a good time right now. It takes over a minute for Ochoa to stand up, and he asks for a chance to wipe his bloodied eye that is cut on the lid. After 90 seconds, Ochoa is good to go, and they share a glove touch to restart. Kavanagh reintroduces himself with two more accurate leg kicks, and he allows Ochoa to kick him so he can plant a capoeira kick on his ribs. An Ochoa kick appears to go low, but Kavanagh waves it off and they trade front kicks. A clean Ochoa front kick drives Kavanagh back, and Kavanagh rushes at him swinging two hooks and a kick before the horn sounds. 10-9 Kavanagh.

Round 2
The fighters share a glove touch to get going in Round 2, with Kavanagh twirling about when not committing entirely to a leg kick. He instead aims one to the side, and he leans back when Ochoa’s feet fly past his face. Ochoa scores a Mortal Kombat-inspired sweep kick to the low leg, and Kavanagh no-sells it and responds with a head kick. Kavanagh chambers and fires a slapping leg kick, hoping to set up a high kick but Ochoa is wise to the latter. Ochoa keeps his hands dangerously low as he prods out with front kicks, and he sways back when Kavanagh kicks at him. Kavanagh scores a right hand, has a kick roll off his shoulder and prepares to fire off a counter. The right hand that comes from the Brit puts Ochoa on his seat, and Ochoa, grinning the whole time, climbs back to his feet. Ochoa attacks the front leg repeatedly, landing three or four until Kavanagh lets fly a booming body kick. Ochoa’s kicks keep his man at safe range until Kavanagh gets sick of waiting and lunges to blaze him with a right and then a huge left hook. Ochoa wants to engage, smiling all the while, and he absorbs a powerful left hand that makes him smile and bleed. Kavanagh’s poker face never changes as he unleashes kicks to the body and front leg, and Ochoa splits the distance and delivers a clean body shot. Ochoa chains and fires a few flashy strikes together that all miss, and he tries a capoeira kick that comes up short. Kavanagh stays composed and dings him with a left hook to draw more blood, and his leg kick keeps battering the front leg. Ochoa splits the guard with a front kick, and this makes Kavanagh bite down on his mouthpiece to engage. Ochoa appears to get the better of the exchange, hurting the former Cage Warriors fighter with a long series of punches. Ochoa changes the strikes to body shots, lowering Kavanagh to the floor until Kavanagh shoots desperately. The Peruvian jumps around to take the back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke while on his foe’s back. Kavanagh leans against the fence to survive the submission, with the horn ending the round. 10-9 Ochoa.

Round 3
The fighters reach the final frame and clap hands, and it could be all tied up or Kavanagh could be ahead. No matter the score, the competitors get to business before long. Legs fly from both sides, with Ochoa picking and poking with kicks high and low, and his body kick draws a reaction out of his man. With Ochoa selling out for kicks, Kavanagh times a left hand that drops Ochoa. Kavanagh does not go wild for long, letting Ochoa have it but paying attention to when the jump knee inevitably comes at him. Ochoa gathers himself and beats on the body with kicks, and Kavanagh returns fire with two that leave mean looking welts on Ochoa’s waist. Kavanagh lunges with a left hook, and he nails the front leg with a kick. Ochoa digs a left to head and right to the body, and Kavanagh pays him back with a short but fierce combination. Ochoa tries to sweep the leg dramatically, and this time it is way short and the crowd boos him. The two crash together with offense, as Ochoa tries a head kick while too close. Kavanagh slips a huge punch to escape from harm, hand-fighting and letting loose with a head kick. Ochoa shrugs at him and belts him with a low kick. Ochoa chases Kavanagh down, walking into a jump knee as he spins with a back fist that bangs into the chest. Kavanagh strafes to the side, avoiding a hook kick and a head kick with active movement. Ochoa’s kicks miss again and again, resulting in Ochoa shrugging at him. Kavanagh wraps a head kick around the guard, and they both land with their fists. Ochoa steps in with a knee, and he gets countered with a left over the top and has a head kick graze his chin. Ochoa walks Kavanagh down without fear, kicking his way into a single-leg takedown attempt that fails. Kavanagh intercepts a kick to blast Ochoa in the face with a right hand, and he spins with a wheel kick that connects cleanly. The two fighters hug it out, and Kavanagh hits a back flip just because he can. 10-9 Kavanagh (29-28 Kavanagh).

The Official Result
Lone'er Kavanagh def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and raw power. He believes Kavanagh's high-level training and speed will be the difference, as Ochoa will struggle to see shots coming. He notes both are finishers and suggests an under on round lines could be a play.

under on round lines could be a sneaky good play
"his speed is the difference his High Level Training will be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Kavanagh to win by decision. He acknowledges the hype on Kavanagh from his contender series knockout but notes Jose Ochoa is dangerous with power. He believes Kavanagh has more ways to win with better tools on the feet and ground, and can mix in takedowns. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes the distance with Kavanagh getting his hand raised.

"I'll take Kavanaugh to win this fight I think it's going to be one of those back and forth Wars where it somehow ends up going the distance and I think it's Kavanagh that gets his hand raised"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Cody picks Kavanagh confidently, calling him a top prospect with dynamic striking and grappling. He notes that Ochoa is a tough Peruvian brawler but lacks the technical skills to hang with Kavanagh. He expects Kavanagh to win by knockout, possibly early, and sees him as a top ticket play.

"I got Kavanaugh kav's probably on my top ticket for being real I think he I think he smokes him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Daniel Vreeland praises both fighters as studs but gives the edge to Kavanagh due to being more seasoned and having fought higher-level competition. He notes that Ochoa is impressive and could be a top prospect soon, but Kavanagh's experience and maturity make him the pick. However, he mentions he would bet on Ochoa as an underdog due to the value.

"pure pick I'll take Lan Kavanagh because of the experience the maturity all that but if I'm gonna bet this fight I'm Gonna Roll the Dice on this kid Ooa at plus 290 plus 300"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Paul agrees, noting Kavanagh's footwork and power are on another level. He acknowledges Ochoa's toughness but thinks Kavanagh's technique will be too much. He expects a dominant performance and is comfortable laying the chalk.

"I'm glad it's early because if I'm going to lose my shirt it may be rebuild"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The MMA Guru is high on Lone'er Kavanagh, describing him as a savage with nasty combos and highlight-reel finishes. He notes Kavanagh has faced tougher competition, with his last three opponents having a combined record of 16-0. He believes Kavanagh's power at flyweight and good takedown defense will be key, and predicts a TKO win in round one or two. He thinks it would take a gritty veteran to beat Kavanagh.

TKO early, round one or two
"I'm going Lo Lona kavar getting this one done by TKO early in the fight I'll say round one or two"