Career Averages - Paddy Pimblett
Career Averages - Benoît Saint Denis
Paddy Pimblett - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 2 | 144 of 254 | 56% | 200 of 313 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:55 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 156 of 311 | 50% | 170 of 326 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 1 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 40 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 37 of 65 | 56% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 1 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 52 of 70 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 41 of 78 | 52% | 42 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 32 of 54 | 59% | 44 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 39 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 29 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 144 of 254 | 56% | 120 of 222 | 15 of 21 | 9 of 11 | 102 of 198 | 20 of 27 | 22 of 29 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 156 of 311 | 50% | 83 of 221 | 48 of 63 | 25 of 27 | 140 of 284 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 27 of 45 | 60% | 23 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 37 of 65 | 56% | 17 of 43 | 12 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 30 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 32 of 50 | 64% | 30 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 17 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 22 of 47 | 46% | 9 of 31 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 37 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 24 of 53 | 45% | 16 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 41 of 78 | 52% | 21 of 54 | 11 of 14 | 9 of 10 | 41 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 32 of 54 | 59% | 27 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 39 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 35 of 58 | 60% | 19 of 38 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 29 of 52 | 55% | 24 of 47 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 42 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 21 of 63 | 33% | 17 of 55 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 56 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-230), Gaethje (+190)
Round 1
If the UFC wanted an action-packed headliner in its inaugural Paramount effort, it could do little worse than placing bonus magnet Gaethje (26-5, 9-5 UFC) in the marquee. He vies for the interim lightweight strap, as Ilia Topuria still holds the disputed belt while he takes time off. To become an ultra-rare two-time UFC interim champion, “The Highlight” will have to get past brash Liverpudlian and submission specialist Pimblett (23-3, 7-0 UFC). Whether this one takes place on the ground or predominantly on the feet, it will first commence with referee Marc Goddard bringing the two together to issue final instructions. One last fist bump seals the cage around them, and it’s time for some action.
Gaethje gets right to walking the Brit down, who keeps him at bay early with a few sweeping low kicks. Pimblett loops a right hand around the guard, stumbling “The Highlight” for a brief moment. Pimblett then lands a right hand and a body kick, and he gets off a low kick as well before getting caught with an overhand right. Gaethje works the body, and Pimblett knocks him back with a looping hook. Pimblett intercepts an advancing Gaethje with a knee and a crisp right hand, nailing the American until he gets hit with something he does not like and turns to the side. Gaethje unloads, blasting the Scouser with an uppercut that knocks him down to the floor. Pimblett rolls over to avoid the diving punch that he still can sense is coming, turning to his knees to survive the attack. When Gaethje backs off, he lets Pimblett stand and walks face-first into an uppercut. Gaethje marches down the retreating Pimblett with impunity, keeping Pimblett to the wall and knocking him down with a kick. Pimblett stands, and he knees Gaethje square in the face and makes him laugh.
Gaethje is throwing everything he has at Pimblett, charging recklessly and not showing one iota of concern about the heat coming back at him. Pimblett gets him with a few body shots, and Gaethje whiffs with his haymaker and grabs his foe from behind. Pimblett grabs the fence to improve his position, and they trade short strikes on the inside until separating. Gaethje is right in Pimblett’s face, pitching big kicks while Gaethje is headhunting. Pimblett times his uppercut again, as Gaethje ducks into it almost every time. Pimblett kicks and keeps himself composed, and Gaethje drills him with a right hand and posts off with his left to jam a finger in the eye socket of “The Baddy.” Goddard immediately calls time, and Pimblett motions to the crowd with confusion as to why they are booing him after a clear eye poke. Gaethje paces back and forth while waiting for a minute for Pimblett to recover, and Goddard issues a hard warning saying one more foul would result in a point deduction. When they get back to it, Pimblett sets up kicks, including to the dome and a few to the front leg. Gaethje shrugs them off and belts the Brit with fierce hooks, and Pimblett throws back with a vengeance until they tie up from momentums clashing. Pimblett, with his back to the wall, jams Gaethje in the chest with a few knees, and he just misses on a spinning back elbow. Gaethje scores a right hand and tries to throw a low kick, but he throws himself off-balance. The dramatic round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 2
The lightweights high-five to get going, and Pimblett quickly revs up his engine as Gaethje bears down on him. Gaethje drills Pimblett coming at him, and he absorbs a few low kicks on his way forward. Gaethje swings so hard he almost falls over, and Pimblett drops to his knees to defend what turns into a half-hearted takedown with a head lock control. Gaethje lands a few short uppercuts before they work back to their feet. Pimblett lands a body kick and gets popped with a left, and he develops some swelling on his right eye. Pimblett falls over when kicking, and Gaethje looks at him, lets him back up and lays into him with swarming punches. Pimblett connects with a few clean knees, and his uppercut is money in the bank, but Gaethje ignores it all and keeps on him swinging with everything he has. Pimblett sinks in a low kick and narrowly misses a “Mortal Kombat”-esque uppercut, and he settles himself down to lump Gaethje up with knees to the body.
They split apart, and Gaethje ducks a haymaker to clip the Liverpudlian. Pimblett ties him up and delivers a bouquet of knees to the sternum, and he takes a right hand on the temple that changes his facial expression. Gaethje walks through a low kick to measure Pimblett when swaying, and he allows Pimblett to drop down so he can grab him by the back of the neck and force him down. Gaethje knees his foe in the shoulder when holding on, and Pimblett bides his time while Gaethje is pressing on him. Pimblett forces his way back up, and he takes a knee that knocks him right back down. It may have been a flash knockdown, but it is enough to set a chain of events in motion where Gaethje further presses his foot on the gas to beat down on “The Baddy.” Pimblett survives and hits the deck from the oncoming blows, with Gaethje then dropping down punishment on him in hopes of finishing the fight. Pimblett looks for an upkick to keep him safe, but Gaethje leaps through it and bashes his face in. A bloodied Pimblett barely survives the barrage of blistering blows, and he makes it to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 3
Between rounds, replays show that Gaethje thumbed Pimblett in the eye, which is what might have hurt him to start. Because it was not called during the round, Goddard cannot go back and assess a penalty. They start up after a 10-minute brawl, and Pimblett gets knocked down within seconds, but it might have been part of his evasion plan as he pops back up no worse for wear. Gaethje walks him down and loads up on leg kicks which made him famous, and he prepares a check when he sees Pimblett is about to respond in kind. Gaethje meanders forward, lunging in but taking some damage on the way. Pimblett scores a calf kick and pumps out his sharp jab, and he shoulder rolls what Gaethje whips at him. Gaethje does land another heavy calf kick, and fans start changing his name. Pimblett chains punches together, and Gaethje sways and pulls back before committing. He walks Pimblett to the wall and is quite inaccurate when loading up, allowing Pimblett to circle out and keep working the jab.
The volume from Gaethje has slowed significantly, but his leg kick is finding its home repeatedly. Gaethje drills his foe with an overhand right, and Pimblett goes to the body with a kick response. Pimblett’s kicks might be making a difference, as Gaethje’s movement is compromised and he is favoring his right hand. His left still gets through, but Pimblett rocks him with a series of punches. Pimblett takes advantage of the slowing Arizonan by picking at him with jabs and follow-up punches, and he leaps at his foe with a knee that bangs into the cup. Gaethje grabs his groin and groans, and Goddard calls time and lets Pimblett know the knee did indeed land low. After 45 seconds, Gaethje is good to go, and they resume with less than a minute remaining in the round. Pimblett beats Gaethje to the punch, the fresher of the two with heavy right hands that set up a big head kick. Gaethje rips a kick to the liver, and he snaps the head back with a jab, but Pimblett is right there throwing fire. Gaethje stuns Pimblett with a ferocious right hand, and Pimblett tanks it and points at his chest as the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the lightweights high-five. Gaethje starts off the round with a jab to the body, and Pimblett does the same. They both pick and poke at one another’s torsos, and Gaethje sways directly into a right hand that gets his attention. Gaethje staggers his foe with a looping right, and Pimblett hops away and takes two more on the forward bow. When Pimblett rushes him for a possible takedown, Gaethje clips him on the way in and drops him to his knees. Gaethje presses on the back of the neck to hold the Scouser down, and he stands back up and knocks Pimblett to the wall. Pimblett gathers himself and flashes his jab, and he brings up a knee but is knocked off his feet by a Gaethje left. Gaethje allows him to stand, and he pressures forward and takes a flush knee but does not bat an eye. Pimblett lands a hard calf kick, and Gaethje frowns and staggers Pimblett with a powerful right. Gaethje bends Pimblett over and knees him on the back of the thigh, and when Pimblett turns, he blasts him in the face with his furious fists.
Pimblett is tough as any one of those expressions that comes to mind, with Gaethje hitting the younger man with practically everything, the kitchen sink, the chair under the announcer’s booth and the table itself. When close together, a Gaethje knee bangs into the cup, but it also strikes the body so Goddard calls it legal. Gaethje bloodies up “The Baddy,” but he does not put him away, as Pimblett marches towards him with fists and feet flying. Gaethje catches a kick, and he ducks a spin so he can blast Pimblett in the face with his monster right. Pimblett’s face is a horror show, but he still throws back and is responsive enough to make Gaethje pay on some counters. Gaethje overswings, and he blocks a high kick but does not defend a leg kick. Pimblett spurs into action, hurting Gaethje, who proceeds to knock the Liverpudlian over and lay into him with punches until they stand. When Gaethje releases him, he launches a kick, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 5
The crowd is electric after 20 insane minutes of all-out combat, and they hug it out to get it going. Gaethje ducks a punch to fire off a right hand, and his subsequent jab lands cleaner. Pimblett fakes a takedown to open up offense, nailing Gaethje in the jaw with a knee but not slowing him one second. Gaethje unloads with a missile of a right hand, and Pimblett’s defense may be not great but his toughness is off the charts. Gaethje prods a jab to open up a cut on the cheek of Pimblett, who is fired up and ready to recklessly engage. Gaethje is happy to live in the fire, walking through anything fired at him to do damage. Pimblett goes all-in for a takedown, and Gaethje spins around to defend the first try and puts himself to the wall to keep his balance. Pimblett knees the body when clinched up, and Gaethje does the same.
Gaethje works his way out and skims the chin with a right, but when he loads up with another, he catches Pimblett cleanly. The otherworldly durability of the Scouser is on full display here, as he is still very much in the fight that has about two minutes remaining. Gaethje ducks a telegraphed spin, and he loads up on three successive right hands. Pimblett backs him off one single step with a jump knee, but Gaethje gives him fireballs right back. Gaethje gets caught with a stream of punches from the Brit, and he has to clinch up to keep himself on his feet now. Gaethje slows down the fiery Liverpool native to ride out most of the rest of the round, with the 10-second clapper sounding. Pimblett goes wild, jumping with a knee that slams into the cup, and Gaethje turns around and clutches his groin. Goddard does not call it, so Pimblett attacks so ferociously that he is the one to fall over. As soon as the time expires to end this tremendous title tilt, the lightweights share an embrace. Hello, "Fight of the Year? We have something for you already, just one major event in."
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (49-46 Gaethje)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (49-45 Gaethje)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett (48-47 Gaethje)
The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Paddy Pimblett via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett but with low confidence, calling the line disrespectful. He trusts Paddy's grappling and durability, believing he can avoid getting knocked out and land takedowns. He acknowledges Justin Gaethje's toughness and striking volume but thinks Paddy's youth and recent improvements give him the edge. He says he is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady thinks the ground is lava for Gaethje, who gets dominated and submitted when taken down. He notes Pimblett has a massive grappling advantage and will likely get the fight to the mat. On the feet, Gaethje is better but hasn't knocked anyone out recently except Poirier, and Pimblett is durable. He predicts Pimblett by second-round submission.
Cody picks Justin Gaethje as an underdog, citing Gaethje's proven durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He questions Paddy's resume, noting he hasn't faced the upper echelon of the division. Cody believes Gaethje's striking and pressure will be key, and he likes the plus money value.
Connor picks Gaethje but is hesitant, acknowledging that Pimblett's style is a real threat. He argues that Gaethje's low kicks and pocket power could be decisive, and that Pimblett's 42% striking defense is historically terrible. However, he admits Gaethje has lost speed and finishing touch, and that Pimblett's durability and grappling could cause problems. Connor ultimately trusts Gaethje's experience and power to find a finish, but says he doesn't feel good about it.
Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett to win by finish. He notes that Gaethje is aging at 37 and has been rocked in many fights, while Pimblett is durable, improving, and has a deceptive ground game. Vreeland believes Pimblett can time Gaethje's kicks and land a hook, and that his jiu-jitsu and durability will be key. He also mentions that Gaethje has been submitted before and that Pimblett's confidence is high.
James highlights a massive grappling disparity, noting Pimblett is a legitimate black belt while Gaethje is a blue belt who admitted to not training grappling. He believes Pimblett will get the fight to the ground via clinch trips or judo throws and submit Gaethje, possibly with a triangle choke. He also notes Gaethje's durability issues and a potential staph infection. James predicts a submission win in round three.
The host believes Paddy Pimblett's size, strength, and grappling will be too much for an aging Justin Gaethje. He notes that Gaethje's best chance is to box and use leg kicks, but expects Pimblett to eventually drag him to the mat and secure a submission, similar to his win over Michael Chandler. The host acknowledges the line at -225 is a bit wide but sees Pimblett catching Gaethje at the perfect time.
Paul leans toward Paddy Pimblett, noting his improved lifestyle and cardio. He believes Paddy's grappling will be the difference over five rounds, potentially securing a submission. However, he is hesitant on the money line and prefers the prop bet of Paddy by submission at +185.
The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission, citing Gaethje's grappling vulnerabilities and Pimblett's jiu-jitsu. He notes that Gaethje's KO power is inconsistent and that Pimblett can slow the pace. He predicts an armbar or triangle.
Zane picks Paddy Pimblett, citing Gaethje's age (37) and mileage, his recent struggles with takedowns (e.g., against Fiziev), and Pimblett's venomous grappling and fearlessness. He notes that Gaethje's one-shot KO power has diminished and that Pimblett's chaotic style often leads to ground scrambles where Gaethje panics. Zane acknowledges Pimblett's terrible striking defense (42%) but believes his durability and ability to create weird grappling opportunities will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 20 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 80 of 143 | 55% | 121 of 197 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 11 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 34 of 63 | 53% | 49 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 47 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 11 of 28 | 39% | 6 of 18 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 80 of 143 | 55% | 61 of 119 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 19 | 43 of 96 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 16 of 40 | 40% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 10 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 34 of 63 | 53% | 26 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 17 | |
| 3 | Michael Chandler | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 30 of 40 | 75% | 28 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 25 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-148), Chandler (+124)
Round 1
With plenty of bluster and hoopla surrounding the match, Chandler (23-9, 2-4 UFC) vs. Pimblett (22-3, 6-0 UFC) has now arrived. Perhaps unexpectedly, the Liverpudlian has a second home in Miami even though Chandler trains in Deerfield Beach, not far north from there. Far from a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup, this fight could end up anywhere. Because of that, referee Kerry Hatley has his running shoes laced up and ready to follow the lightweights wherever they may roam. Before the two get down to their non-title five-round pairing, they decide to touch gloves after all. Pimblett paws out a jab and a low kick to take advantage of his reach, and he hammers the front leg with two more kicks. Chandler’s leg is already welted less than a minute in, and Pimblett jams him to the body with a teep kick. Pimblett lashes out with another low kick, and Chandler ducks down and swings for the fences with a right hand. Pimblett darts out of the way and dings Chandler with an uppercut. Chandler tries to take the fight down, and Pimblett grabs the fence to prevent it. A second effort, where Chandler lifts “The Baddy” in the air to slam him down, results in a successful takedown. Chandler hangs on from behind, wrapping up his arms on the waist. Pimblett gets to a knee and hacks at Chandler without looking, elbowing “Iron Mike” on the nose. Pimblett threatens with a kimura, and Chandler lowers Pimblett down and hammers him in the face with a right hand to release the sub grip. Chandler imposes his weight on the former Cage Warriors fighter, and Pimblett suddenly jumps for a flying triangle choke. He succeeds in dragging Chandler to the floor, but there is no chance of him getting the choke as Chandler bucks out of it and resets. Pimblett follows him and slugs him in the face with a right hand, and his low kick right after it further damages his opponent. Chandler connects with a clean right, and Pimblett kicks him in the same spot on the front leg once more. Pimblett comes up short with a right hand, and he skips it off the shoulder when firing again. Chandler slips when backpedaling, just getting out of the way from two looping punches. Chandler sits down on a hard left, and Pimblett goes not flinch and instead throws back with a heavy right hand. Pimblett runs at him to keep attacking, forcing Chandler to ricochet off the fencing as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going again, and Pimblett reintroduces himself with a snappy jab. Chandler reddens his foe’s nose with his own jab, and he ducks down to evade the counter. Chandler walks into a few body shots, with Pimblett fighting smartly behind his jab. He strings a few punches together to make Chandler back off and regather himself, and he dings Chandler with a left hook and a leg kick. Chandler kicks him back, and he retreats to block a head kick. Chandler’s leg is getting beaten up from kicks, and Pimblett walks him down and jabs him up. Pimblett gets off a head kick that bangs into the neck, and he lands a low kick and three punches to follow. Chandler backs off, wipes his hand, and they kick at the same time. Pimblett groans as he takes the kick flush on the cup, and Hatley calls time. Pimblett calls Chandler a cheater, and they decide to high-five a couple times to bury any beef. Chandler shoots in for takedown when they restart, and Pimblett shuts it down and boots Chandler upside the head. Chandler counters with two hooks and a takedown shot, and he elects to lift Pimblett in the air and dump him to the ground. Pimblett works to a knee and upright, not allowing Chandler to control him, and he lets go more elbows on the face. Chandler hurls him to the mat again and takes his back, and he is too high and falls off the back. Pimblett asserts himself in top position, stepping into half guard and fastening up an arm-triangle choke. The Brit steps to the side while still holding the choke setup, and he looks to step into mount or otherwise advance to a dominant position. Pimblett lets go of the grip to hack down with elbows, and Chandler explodes only to give up his back. Pimblett gets a hook in and bowls Chandler over, where he proceeds to leap into mount and lash out with elbows. Chandler spins around, his back still taken, and Pimblett wraps the body triangle around his waist. Pimblett smacks the former Bellator champ upside the head, and he prevents Chandler from turning with his body lock. Pimblett lumps Chandler up with a few 12-to-6 elbows as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Round 3
Ice is spilled in Chandler’s corner, and commentator Joe Rogan does not freak out. Hatley has to use a towel to clean the area, and the fighters re-engage when he says fight. Chandler ducks in to punch, and he walks face-first into a destructive knee that splits his cheek wide open. Pimblett rushes after him, and Chandler explodes with a huge right hand. Pimblett measures his options, and he decides to lift the former Bellator great in the air and throw him down. Pimblett immediately assumes back control, getting one hook in, and Chandler looks to his team for answers. Pimblett elbows a few times, landing one on the back of the head, and Hatley warns him for the foul. Chandler keeps swaying and moving to recover, and Pimblett goes for a rear-naked choke grip. When Pimblett releases it, he slashes down with elbows to target the large cut on Chandler’s cheek. Pimblett nails Chandler with another elbow, and he shifts into mount and keeps attacking. Chandler turns through to not get caught in a choke, and blood pours down his face. Pimblett postures up to rain down elbows and punches, and Hatley is watching closely. Pimblett rains down elbows and punches, unleashing one last hellacious salvo of offense that makes Hatley say enough is enough. “The Baddy” dismounts his defeated foe, and he shouts to the camera, “What now?” Chandler returns to his feet, and he is ushered out of the cage to seek immediate medical attention, in part due to the substantial gash on his cheek. Happy as a claim, the victorious Pimblett dances around, and he brushes his face to indicate that he did not take any damage while throwing down with the heavy-handed Chandler.
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Michael Chandler R3 3:07 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Connor picks Chandler, arguing that despite Chandler's recent losses, he remains a powerful wrestler and striker who has hurt every opponent he's faced. He notes that Pimblett's cardio is suspect and that Chandler's functional aggression in later rounds could be decisive. Connor believes Pimblett's striking has improved only in that he makes fewer mistakes, but he still lacks the tools to handle Chandler's pressure and power. He sees Chandler's wrestling as a key advantage, even if Chandler's technique has declined.
Daniel Levi notes that Paddy Pimblett destroyed Michael Chandler, outstriking him 8 to 1 and winning by TKO via elbows in round three. He calls it one of the best bets of the year at minus 150. He believes the market hasn't caught up on Pimblett yet, offering value.
Lucrative James picks Paddy Pimblett to win, citing Chandler's volatility and potential decline. He notes that Chandler has been out of the octagon for two years waiting for Conor McGregor, which may have aged him. He believes Pimblett has better durability, range control, and fight IQ. He expects Pimblett to find a submission, possibly a guillotine, as the fight progresses. He acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but thinks Pimblett can weather the early storm and take over.
Zane picks Pimblett, but hesitantly, because he sees Chandler as prone to creating scrambles and giving up his back, which is Pimblett's strength. He notes that Chandler is a powerful wrestler but has been reckless and hittable, and that Pimblett's submission game could capitalize on Chandler's tendency to get into messy positions. Zane acknowledges that Chandler has the tools to win and that this should be a bridge too far for Pimblett, but he feels Chandler's willingness to engage in chaos favors Pimblett.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| King Green | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| King Green | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 15 of 21 | 71% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 8 of 13 | 61% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 15 of 21 | 71% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 8 of 13 | 61% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-120), Pimblett (+100)
Round 1
While the last two fights are championship affairs with a Brit defending their throne, fans might be here for the people’s main event that is the “featured fight of the night.” No matter his new first name, for play-by-play purposes this Strikeforce veteran will be called by his surname, Green (32-15-1, 1 NC; 13-10-1, 1 NC UFC). He will try to take all the wind out of the sails of the raucous Manchester crowd, which is going bananas for Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 UFC). Referee Lukasz Bosacki can scarcely hear himself think, but he knows it is time and starts the fight between the beloved lightweights. Even having said earlier this week it is all business, the two choose not to touch gloves before slugging it out. Green’s hands are low as always, and he pokes at the front leg with a kick. Pimblett winds up with a much heavier kick on the inside, and he lands a second with emphasis. Pimblett sticks out a jab and checks a kick, and he sits down on an especially powerful calf kick. Green marches forward and starts talking trash, and Pimblett catches him with a counter as he backs off. Green brushes his shoulder when Pimblett lands on him, and the Brit lands a low kick as well. Green connects with a pair of stomping kicks to the knee, and he reaches a left hand to the midsection. Green kicks the front leg and is tripped up, and he acknowledges the strike and kicks at him. Green points at his adversary as he walks him down, and he tells Pimblett to hit him. Pimblett elects to kick the calf instead, and Green kicks him in the ribs in response. Green keeps jabbing with his front leg, and he shoots for a takedown and falls straight into a guillotine choke attempt. Green slips out of it, and Pimblett adjusts and locks down a triangle choke. Green rolls to the side but is still dangerously caught in the submission, and Pimblett starts celebrating as he leans back. Green struggles and gets rolled to his back, and he wrenches on the arm while crushing on Green’s carotid artery. Life leaves Green’s eyes as the submission deprives him completely of his consciousness, and Bosacki recognizes this and rescues the snoozing Green from further harm. Pimblett immediately lets go and leaps to the top of the cage as the audience explodes to celebrate the stoppage win for their star. He jumps out of the Octagon to high-five UFC chief Hunter Campbell, and the crowd is absolutely deafening. “The Baddy” passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, putting the dangerous Green to sleep and becoming the first fighter to submit Green since 2009.
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Bobby Green R1 3:22 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks King Green (Bobby Green) as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Green's volume and defense are excellent, but he only bets half a unit because Green is fighting in enemy territory, could face a sketchy decision, and if taken down by Pimblett, he may not get back up. Angelo acknowledges Pimblett's grappling control but believes Green's striking will be the difference.
Cody is confident in King Green, citing his well-rounded skills and veteran savvy. He notes that Paddy Pimblett has looked unimpressive in his UFC fights, often losing rounds before getting finishes, and that his lifestyle and mindset are not conducive to long-term success. Cody believes Green's boxing and takedown defense will be too much, and that Paddy's path to victory is narrow. He predicts Green by decision.
Daniel notes Paddy's early explosiveness but worries about his cardio, citing him pulling guard against Tony Ferguson. He thinks Bobby Green's age (37) and hands-down style could lead to him getting caught early. He leans Paddy but wants underdog odds to bet, expecting a close decision or early finish.
Daniel picks King Green, impressed by his performance against Jim Miller where he overwhelmed a durable opponent. He believes Green's wrestling defense will hold up against Pimblett, and that Green's volume and power will be too much. He notes Pimblett gets hit often and Green can exploit that.
Jeff picks King Green, citing Green's volume and power. He thinks Pimblett will eventually get caught and knocked out, though he's not sure if it happens this week. He believes Green's wrestling defense is adequate and that Pimblett won't get him down.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a horrible matchup for Paddy. He highlights Green's takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights) and his advantage on the feet. Paul expects Green to cruise to a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of a bad split decision in the UK. He also mentions the possibility of betting Green by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission (rear-naked choke), likely in the first or second round. He believes Pimblett can exploit Bobby Green's tendency to give up his back when defending takedowns. The Guru notes that Green was easily controlled on the ground by Islam Makhachev and that Pimblett has a size and strength advantage. He also thinks Pimblett will use kicks at range and wait for grappling opportunities, rather than brawling. The Guru is influenced by a recent interview with Pimblett, which increased his confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 62 of 105 | 59% | 90 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 106 of 165 | 64% | 151 of 217 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 8:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 70 of 104 | 67% | 76 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 46 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 41 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 29 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 62 of 105 | 59% | 35 of 66 | 23 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Tony Ferguson | 106 of 165 | 64% | 73 of 127 | 13 of 17 | 20 of 21 | 66 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 56 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 29 of 55 | 52% | 16 of 32 | 10 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 70 of 104 | 67% | 43 of 72 | 11 of 15 | 16 of 17 | 54 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 27 | 70% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 18 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 22 of 32 | 68% | 11 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 |
Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, stating that Tony Ferguson is a shell of his former self and that Paddy is a young, cocky prospect. He notes that Paddy is in his 'anti-40 parlay' and expects a dominant win, though he feels bad for Ferguson.
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by second-round submission, expressing strong disapproval that the fight is happening. He notes Tony Ferguson's six-fight losing streak, age (39), and accumulated damage, particularly after the Gaethje fight. Brady believes Ferguson is a shell of his former self, citing his poor performance against Bobby Green. He expects Pimblett to dominate and finish via submission or corner stoppage.
Cody picks Pimblett, arguing that Ferguson's last two fights showed he is shot, and that Pimblett's strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Ferguson has given up 11 minutes of control time in recent fights and cannot get back up. Cody also mentions that Pimblett has taken a year off to refresh and is training with good partners, while Ferguson's personal issues and drinking have affected his performance.
Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett, though he expresses sadness about picking against Tony Ferguson. He notes that Ferguson can no longer take a hit, especially after the Michael Chandler head kick. Vreeland believes Pimblett hits hard enough to knock out Ferguson, and that Ferguson's only path to victory is an early submission, which is unlikely. He expects Pimblett to win by knockout.
Jeff Fox picks Paddy Pimblett, stating that Ferguson is on a six-fight losing streak and has been finished in three straight. He notes that Pimblett is younger and more active, and that Ferguson's chin is gone. Fox believes Pimblett will finish Ferguson, possibly by knockout or submission.
Lucrative James is extremely confident Paddy Pimblett will win, calling it a setup fight. He believes Tony Ferguson is completely washed and on a seven-fight losing streak. He thinks Paddy will submit Ferguson, noting that Ferguson got submitted by Bobby Green and controlled by Charles Oliveira. He says Paddy should be a much heavier favorite and that the fight likely won't go to decision.
The host picks Pimblett but with low confidence, noting that Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a long losing streak. He expects Pimblett to walk Ferguson down, land big shots, and take him to the ground to grind out a decision, similar to how Oliveira and Dariush beat Ferguson. However, he is wary of the minus 285 line and acknowledges Ferguson could pull off a submission if he hurts Pimblett. He calls it a 'tailor-made' fight for Pimblett but expresses unease.
Paul picks Pimblett, stating that Tony Ferguson is 'absolutely cooked' after a six-fight losing streak. He notes that Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and has no ability to get back up once taken down, as seen against Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. Paul believes Pimblett's strength and top control will be enough, and that the year off will have refreshed Pimblett. He expects a good version of Pimblett.
The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's decline, especially his wrestling defense and inability to get back up. He believes Pimblett is too big and strong, and that Ferguson's legs are shot from training with David Goggins. He predicts Pimblett will take Ferguson down, get his back, and submit him with a rear-naked choke in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 63 of 155 | 40% | 97 of 194 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 60 of 103 | 58% | 100 of 143 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 29 of 70 | 41% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 32 of 53 | 60% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 47 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 39 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 21 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 63 of 155 | 40% | 33 of 122 | 13 of 16 | 17 of 17 | 54 of 139 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 |
| Jared Gordon | 60 of 103 | 58% | 32 of 62 | 14 of 27 | 14 of 14 | 53 of 94 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 29 of 70 | 41% | 16 of 55 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 28 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jared Gordon | 32 of 53 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 7 of 17 | 8 of 8 | 30 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 28 of 70 | 40% | 13 of 54 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gordon | 24 of 46 | 52% | 13 of 32 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gordon | 4 of 4 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-250), Gordon (+210)
Round 1
The co-main event for this pay-per-view card is an unranked lightweight affair between boisterous Liverpudlian Pimblett (19-3, 3-0 UFC) and his relatively soft-spoken counterpart Gordon (19-5, 7-4 UFC). The UFC wants a star out of Pimblett, and they are building him up in a measured manner instead of throwing him to the top-ranked wolves. Many view Gordon as the next step up in competition. The third man in the Octagon for this pairing is referee Herb Dean, and they do decide to touch gloves even after some back-and-forth between the two. Pimblett crowds the American and kicks the side early, and he fires off a head kick and strings several punches together as Gordon shells up. Gordon, seemingly the smaller man by a wide margin, leaps forward to belt Pimblett in the face with a left hand. Pimblett wears it well and gets rocked with a left hand, and he is retreating as Gordon advances. Pimblett, with his head high and a tall stance, absorbs another left hand and a low kick to mix things up. The two trade leg kicks, with Gordon putting his hips into them as Pimblett resets and fires one off to respond. Gordon sticks “The Baddy” with two more left hooks, and Pimblett darts away and recovers to score two punches. In a flash, “Flash” rocks Pimblett with an overhand right, and he walks through a calf kick to get off another left. Pimblett lines several punches up one after the other, and Gordon blocks some while others split his guard. Pimblett ducks low to avoid a looping punch buzzing his way, and he swats away the arms before Gordon can slug him again. Pimblett jabs and flips out two high kicks in rapid succession, and Gordon keeps his guard high to defend the rest that follows. Gordon absorbs part of a jumping high kick, and he responds with a body kick and a left hook. Pimblett has two punches and a kick bounce off the guard, but his left hand gets through. Gordon does not slow, connecting with a big left and a calf kick. Pimblett pushes Gordon back with a head kick that is blocked, only for Gordon to respond with power. Gordon gets stung with a counter and ducks down for a single, but Pimblett slithers his leg away in time. Gordon marches his man down and lands a left hand, and he counters a takedown by push Pimblett flat on his back. Pimblett threatens with a high guard that does not turn into anything, while Gordon lands a few punches before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Round 2
Gordon claims the center of the cage and advances to throw hands, while Pimblett keeps his range and tosses out high kicks. Pimblett lobs a right hook that skims off the guard, and Gordon chips at the calf a few times. Pimblett gets a head kick through, and he is answered by two swarming punches from his foe. Gordon absorbs a body kick and then takes a front kick so he can close in and club Pimblett in the face with a left, but Pimblett sticks and moves. The Brit sneaks in an uppercut as Gordon gives chase, and Gordon checks a kick and tries to initiate a brawl. Pimblett gets the worst of the exchange and tries to escape out the back door, and he gets his chin checked with a powerful left hook. Gordon grabs hold of a single, and when he puts Pimblett down, Pimblett defends with an arm-triangle choke that is a sort of a side-naked choke, but Gordon is calm and does not fall into danger. Pimblett walks up the cage wall, and short offense on the inside opens a cut on the hairline of “Flash.” Gordon attempts another takedown, and Pimblett stuffs it and punches Gordon in the back of the head repeatedly. Gordon stays pressed tightly to his man before suddenly breaking free and blasting Pimblett in the face with two punches. Gordon gets cracked with a right, but he fires off a left to back Pimblett off. A few Pimblett punches collide with the guard, and they trade low kicks until Gordon pushes forward in pursuit of a takedown. Pimblett defends against the wall and elbows the side of the head until Gordon bails on it, and Gordon grinds his man until Pimblett shoves him away. Pimblett unloads with two punches and sneaks up a head kick, but Gordon is right there to brawl away with him. Pimblett pushes off with his fingers out, and one jams into Gordon’s eye to cause a pause with 15 seconds left in the round. Pimblett receives a hard warning for his fingers stretching out or poking out, and they resume with a slugfest. Pimblett catches Gordon at the end of a right hand, and he loads up on a few punches and a front kick until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Round 3
The lightweights touch gloves to initiate the final frame, and Gordon advances while Pimblett defends a potential takedown. Gordon clasps his hands and dumps the Brit on his face, and Pimblett defends with a kimura. Pimblett climbs back up and is lifted with a knee, and he puts his hands on the mat to take knees on the jaw out of the equation. Gordon aggressively pursues a double, and Pimblett considers a front choke but cannot find the neck when Gordon switches things up for a single. The grind is firmly embraced by “Flash,” who settles for heavy shoulder pressure and takedown tries, while Pimblett is stifled to little more than an elbow or a knee. Gordon suddenly changes levels for a double, and this fails as Pimblett elbows him in the back of the head. Dean calls for the fighters to work, and Pimblett explodes to break away. Gordon scores a left hook, and he powers forward with a second before jamming Pimblett up against the wire. Gordon squeezes and clings to the Brit, and he trips Pimblett out to his knees but cannot ground him. Gordon pursues a double, and he ends up settling to trip Pimblett out and dump him to the floor. Pimblett slides out the back door and looks to take dominant position, but Gordon bursts back upright as Pimblett holds onto him. Pimblett lands a short knee on the inside and gets wrenched to his knees, and Pimblett jumps on to take his back as the fight ends. We have reached the judges’ scorecards for the first time of the night, and scores could definitely go either way depending on how the second and third rounds were evaluated. Either way, the meteoric rise of Pimblett has definitely hit a speed bump in the form of “Flash” Gordon, win or lose.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Pimblett, believing he is the better striker and grappler. He notes that Pimblett outgrappled Jordan Leavitt, who was considered a better grappler. However, he warns that Gordon has legit wrestling and could take Pimblett down and hold him there, as Leavitt took him down three times. He suggests the best bet is Pimblett inside the distance (decision no action) if the odds are reasonable.
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett, citing his power and dangerous grappling, while noting Jared Gordon's poor durability and lack of finishing ability. He expects Pimblett to hurt Gordon on the feet or lock in a submission, likely in the second round. He does not agree with the -250 price but sees Pimblett as the more likely finisher.
Cody picks Paddy despite acknowledging he has been fading him in previous fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling, back-taking, and rear-naked choke are key, and that Paddy has a massive reach advantage. He notes Paddy's durability and wild style but believes Jared Gordon is not the guy to expose him. He expects Paddy to use grappling to grind out a decision or late submission.
Connor picks Pimblett, reasoning that Gordon is not a powerful striker and will fall into clinch scrambles where Pimblett is dangerous. He notes Gordon repeatedly gives up his back on the mat, and Pimblett is a skilled backtake artist. Connor is hesitant but believes Gordon's flaws will lead to a submission loss.
Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett to win inside the distance, though he expects Jared Gordon to be competitive early. He notes Gordon's superior volume and top control, but believes Pimblett is a 'big moment fighter' who can turn the tide with a knockdown or submission. Levi thinks Gordon may win the first round or two, but Pimblett will eventually find a finish. He does not bet this fight, preferring to watch.
Lock picks Jared Gordon as his dog of the night, believing his style will give Paddy fits. He thinks Gordon will keep his foot on the gas, push the pace, box, and grind out a decision, as long as he stays conscious. He notes that Paddy has faced adversity in every UFC fight but Gordon is the best fighter he's faced. Lock likes the betting line at +217 and sees a possible pump and dump on PredictionStrike at 80 cents, though he acknowledges Gordon has a ceiling.
Paul leans towards Jared Gordon as a dog, having faded Paddy in all his UFC fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling defense is suspect and he has been hurt in fights. He notes Gordon's skills and value at plus money, but is hesitant because Paddy has won close fights before. He is pot-committed to fading Paddy but acknowledges the risk.
The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Jared Gordon by rear-naked choke. He expects Gordon to be winning early with cage pressure, but Pimblett's speed and power will catch Gordon, leading to a scramble where Pimblett takes the back and chokes him out. He notes the odds are too wide and considers it a close fight, but believes Pimblett's finishing ability prevails.
Zane reluctantly picks Pimblett, agreeing with Connor that Gordon will give up his back in scrambles. He notes Gordon is a better wrestler but Pimblett will let himself be taken down to create grappling exchanges. Zane is not confident, saying if Gordon loses it's his own fault.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 30 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 41 of 48 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 26 of 27 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 17 of 39 | 43% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 8 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 16 of 22 | 72% | 5 of 8 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 10 of 21 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 7 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 7 of 8 | 87% | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-245), Leavitt (+205)
Round 1
Dan Movahedi will oversee what is one of the most anticipated bouts of the evening. Pimblett, as expected, gets a huge pop from the crowd. Pimblett takes the center of the cage and pressures with punches. Leavitt responds with a single leg. “The Monkey King” briefly gets his foe down and maintains the clinch when Pimblett stands. Pimblett defends with a guillotine, but Leavitt lifts him up and executes a big slam. “The Baddy” maintains his hold on the choke and he has Leavitt trapped in his full guard. Leavitt is able to pop his head free and Pimblett stands up. Leavitt presses his foe into the fence and Pimblett jumps guard for a guillotine. Leavitt avoids the submission and maintains a body lock as the Cage Warriors vet stands. Leavitt continues to grind away in the clinch, making Pimblett work to defend takedowns against the fence. Leavitt clings to a single leg before Pimblett lands a couple hard elbows to the side of the head. Pimblett finally gets some space at about 45 seconds. Pimblett uses the opportunity to land a jumping kick before threatening with a guillotine. Pimblett takes the back in the waning seconds and drops a few punches from above before the horn. 10-9 Leavitt.
Round 2
Pimblett gets to work right away but can’t find the range on his initial combination. Leavitt answers with a front kick. Pimblett again blitzes forward with punches, but Leavitt is doing well to move away thus far. A right hand lands for Leavitt before he secures a single leg and shoves his foe into the fence. Pimblett defends with his back to the fence and lands an elbow. Leavitt drops low but Pimblett frames a choke and then lands a knee to the had that seems to hurt Leavitt, who falls to his knees. The maneuver allows Pimblett to take his foe’s back, and he’s got Leavitt’s right arm trapped in the body triangle.
With Leavitt having just one arm free to defend, Pimblett is able to lock in a tight rear-naked choke. Leavitt can only resist for a few seconds before he’s forced to tap.
Like Molly McCann before him, Pimblett leaps from the Octagon to celebrate his victory in the arena with the fans.
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Jordan Leavitt via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 2:46
Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett, noting he is getting favorable matchups and will likely win a fun decision. He highlights Paddy's striking volume and smooth grappling, but acknowledges he is hittable and has zero percent takedown defense (though small sample size). He suggests a moneyline bet or a prop on Jordan Leavitt inside distance decision no action if Leavitt is tough enough to not get finished.
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by second-round knockout. He notes Pimblett has improved significantly, especially in striking and power. Leavitt is one-dimensional and slows down as the fight goes on. Pimblett should have advantages on the feet and in cardio, and he expects a knockout in the second or third round.
Cody confidently picks Paddy Pimblett, stating he can win wherever the fight goes. He notes Pimblett has superior striking, better boxing, good chin, and solid submission defense. Cody points out that Leavitt's wrestling is not good enough to take Pimblett down, and his striking lacks power. He believes Pimblett can take Leavitt down if he wants and ground and pound him. Cody acknowledges the line is inflated but thinks Pimblett's skills are clearly better.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Paddy Pimblett, viewing this as another showcase fight. He believes Pimblett can keep the fight standing and overwhelm Leavitt, who he sees as one-dimensional with poor stand-up. Levi notes that Leavitt's best chance is early success, but if that doesn't happen, he expects Leavitt to gas out. He also mentions the crowd factor and Leavitt's questionable mentality, saying he doesn't see a grown man that twerks beating Pimblett.
Leavitt doesn't have the wrestling, striking, or cardio to beat Pimblett. Paddy will show dominance with big strikes and finish him. This is a step down in competition for Pimblett. No doubt about it.
Paul picks Jordan Leavitt by decision at +800, calling it an outlier in the market. He admits he is a Paddy Pimblett hater and thinks Leavitt might be able to get top position and hold on. Paul acknowledges the line is wide and that Leavitt would need clear rounds to win a decision, especially in the UK. He says he doesn't have to lose much money to potentially win.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Paddy Pimblett to win by first-round KO. He believes Pimblett's size, strength, and explosivity will be too much for Leavitt. Leavitt's stand-up is poor, and Pimblett will stuff takedowns and land big shots. He predicts a flying knee or uppercut combo leading to a vicious KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 7 of 9 | 77% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 7 of 9 | 77% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Rodrigo Vargas (Kazula Vargas) with a 51-49 edge, citing Paddy's poor chin and tendency to get hit. He notes that Vargas hits harder than Paddy's last opponent and is less hittable. He acknowledges Paddy's superior ground game but thinks if Paddy stands and trades, his chin will be tested. He calls it the hardest pick on the card and says the odds are crazy (Paddy at -500).
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by submission. He notes Vargas has poor takedown defense (25%) and is content to stay on his back, which won't work against a black belt like Pimblett. Brady also mentions Vargas is 36 and has fought weak competition. He sees Pimblett getting takedowns and finishing on the mat, possibly late.
Cody picks Vargas as a dog, citing Paddy's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He thinks Vargas has better stand-up and leg kicks, and notes Vargas's sneaky guillotine. He believes Paddy's hype is overblown and that Vargas can win if it stays standing.
Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, having bet him earlier at -320 in a parlay. He views Vargas as a sacrificial lamb, too slow and hittable, and believes Pimblett will finish him. Levi notes that Vargas's wins are questionable (e.g., against Zubaira Tukhugov) and that he lacks the tools to exploit Pimblett's flaws. He expects a highlight-reel KO or submission, as Pimblett is motivated by showmanship and stardom.
Pimblett should use his grappling to dominate Vargas, who was taken down by Rongzhu. Pimblett has good top pressure and submissions, and Vargas won't be ready for that approach. The fight doesn't go to decision at -270 is a good parlay piece. Pimblett isn't top-10 material, but this is a squash match. I'm picking Pimblett via second-round submission.
Paul picks Paddy, arguing that Vargas is old and has poor grappling and takedown defense. He believes Paddy's grappling will be the difference, and that even if it stays standing, Paddy has better volume and cardio. He acknowledges the price is high but thinks Paddy wins.
The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett but thinks the odds (-400) are too high; he should be around -200. He predicts a first-round submission via rear-naked choke after a hip toss. He acknowledges Vargas is a solid prospect and notes Pimblett has been dropped before, but believes his grappling will be the difference. He expects a back-and-forth on the feet before Pimblett takes over.
Benoît Saint Denis - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 51 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 97 of 127 | 76% | 170 of 205 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 6:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 34 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 35 of 46 | 76% | 62 of 73 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 17 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 62 of 81 | 76% | 108 of 132 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 30 of 47 | 63% | 19 of 32 | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 97 of 127 | 76% | 83 of 113 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 32 | 10 of 11 | 67 of 84 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 26 of 41 | 63% | 16 of 27 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 35 of 46 | 76% | 24 of 35 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 11 of 11 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 62 of 81 | 76% | 59 of 78 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 56 of 73 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his non-stop pressure, well-timed takedowns, and heavy top control. He notes that Dan Hooker's takedown defense is solid overall but fails against better wrestlers, and BSD is relentless. Angelo acknowledges Hooker's heart and striking but questions his motivation and game-planning. He expects a war and thinks BSD's style will overwhelm Hooker.
Big Brady is confident in Benoît Saint Denis, believing there's a big levels difference on the mat. He notes Dan Hooker has looked poor off his back against wrestlers like Islam Makhachev and Armen Serukian, and Saint Denis will take him down and submit him. He also thinks Saint Denis can knock Hooker out, as Arnold Allen and Michael Chandler have done. Brady predicts a second-round submission.
Cody is switching his pick to Dan Hooker as a value play, despite acknowledging the risks. He notes that Saint Denis is hittable and has shown defensive flaws, and that Hooker has faced elite competition and has the toughness to survive takedowns. He expects a close fight and thinks Hooker can win a decision or even get a finish if Saint Denis tires. However, he admits he doesn't love the pick and it will be near the bottom of his parlay.
Connor picks Hooker because he believes Saint Denis falls apart when put on the back foot and is not a clean finisher. He thinks Hooker can survive the early onslaught and rally back, as Saint Denis has never shown an ability to withstand a comeback. However, he acknowledges that Hooker is not as durable as Poirier and could get run over early, making it a 50/50 fight.
Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Saint Denis, predicting he will run through Hooker and finish him. He believes Hooker is past his prime and overranked, while Saint Denis is a violent finisher with relentless pressure and a strong ground game. Vreeland even bet on Saint Denis at minus 250 and made a bold prediction that Hooker will never win another UFC fight.
James picks BSD to win, acknowledging his bias as a New Zealander rooting for Hooker. He believes BSD's wrestling and grappling will be too much for Hooker at this stage, and that the fight won't go to decision. He notes Hooker is the better striker but BSD can land takedowns and submissions. James is hesitant because he wants Hooker to win but thinks BSD's path is more likely.
Saint Denis is a talented grappler with good finishing ability, likely to get a submission within the first two rounds. Hooker has decent defensive grappling but may struggle with Saint Denis's smothering style. The host prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -220 over the moneyline chalk. Hooker's striking and cardio could be factors if he survives early, but Saint Denis is expected to get the submission.
Paul hates the -350 price on Saint Denis and prefers the fight not to go the distance, as Saint Denis fights are almost always finishes. He leans toward Hooker if forced to pick a moneyline side, citing Saint Denis's tendency to get hit and Hooker's durability. He also mentions the time zone difference as a potential factor.
The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, agreeing with the odds. He highlights Saint Denis's grappling, power, and aggression, predicting he will submit Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's recent damage and broken nose, and believes Saint Denis's pressure and body kicks will be too much.
Zane also picks Hooker, citing Saint Denis's inability to fight going backward and his lack of defense or footwork on the retreat. He notes that Hooker has the counters for a bullheaded wrestling game and that if Hooker survives the first round, he has a good chance to finish or win a decision. However, he admits that Hooker could easily get trounced early, as seen in fights against Chandler and Allen.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling. He believes Beneil Dariush is aging and was sloppy in his last fight. Despite Dariush's scrambling skills, Angelo thinks BSD's grit and non-stop pace will overcome technique. He notes he would have picked Dariush a few years ago.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing Beneil Dariush's compromised chin. He notes Dariush has been knocked out in three of his last four fights, including by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, and was dropped by Hakeem Dawodu. Brady believes Saint Denis can take a punch better at this stage and predicts a first-round knockout in a war. He acknowledges Dariush's elite anti-grappling and skills but says the chin is the deciding factor.
Cody picks Dariush despite the risk of a first-round knockout. He notes that Dariush has excellent grappling and cardio, and that Saint Denis tends to fade and take damage in longer fights. Cody believes that if Dariush survives the early onslaught, he can take over with his wrestling and pressure. He suggests a live bet if Dariush gets through the first round.
Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and scrambling. He notes that Saint Denis relies on aggression and faith in his conditioning, but Dariush is a fluid control grappler who will stay ahead in scrambles. He warns that Dariush could lose if knocked out, but in any grappling exchange, Dariush wins.
Daniel thinks Dariush is the better overall fighter but his chin is suspect, and Saint Denis has the power and pressure to test it. He notes that Saint Denis is riding high on confidence after dismantling Ruffy, while Dariush looks a fight or two away from retirement. He leans toward Saint Denis finding a knockout, but acknowledges Dariush has paths to victory if he can avoid getting hit clean.
Lucrative James picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Dariush's superior scrambling and counter-grappling. He believes Dariush's durability is a major concern, as he has been knocked out multiple times and is getting older. He thinks BSD's relentless pressure and power will eventually catch Dariush on the feet, even if he struggles to secure takedowns. He predicts a KO victory for BSD, possibly via head kick or in a transition.
Dariush is the better fighter. Saint Denis struggles to get grappling going. Dariush scrambles out of bad positions, keeps Saint Denis on the defensive, and finds a finish in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Cody, preferring to watch the first round before betting due to the knockout risk. He notes that Saint Denis has gassed in past fights and that Dariush's takedown defense is excellent. Paul thinks that if Dariush can avoid early trouble, he can outwork Saint Denis and potentially submit him. He is not fully confident but leans towards Dariush.
The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by TKO in round two. He believes Saint Denis' pressure, clinch work, and body shots will wear down Dariush, who may struggle with the pace. He notes that both are evenly matched on the ground, but Saint Denis has a higher KO percentage and momentum. The Guru expects Saint Denis to break Dariush against the cage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Dariush. He emphasizes that Saint Denis' aggressive, throw-himself-in style will not work against Dariush's relaxed, anticipatory grappling. He notes that Saint Denis lost to Moicano by being overwhelmed, and Dariush is a better grappler than Moicano.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 37 of 61 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 19 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 17 of 38 | 44% | 9 of 26 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 9 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 5 of 17 | 29% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 6 of 18 | 33% | 2 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 11 of 20 | 55% | 7 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-200); St. Denis (+170)
Round 1
Buckle up, buckaroos. The co-main event is here, and it should be a wild one. St. Denis (14-3, 1 NC; 6-3 UFC) and Ruffy (12-1, 3-0 UFC) are about to trade. Nothing more needs to be said, other than that referee Herb Dean is standing by. The lightweights touch gloves. Here we go.
St. Denis introduces himself with a body kick, and then slings one up high. St. Denis rushes at the Brazilian with a looping left hand, and Ruffy bounces off the fencing. St. Denis drops to his knees in pursuit of a double, and he wrangles Ruffy to the mat in about 40 seconds. St. Denis steps over to half guard, side control and then full mount less than one minute into the bout. The crowd is predictably going nuts before St. Denis even starts setting up a chest pressure-based arm-triangle choke. Ruffy turns over to give up his back as St. Denis starts raining down punches, and he tries to pursue a choke while Ruffy stands up. Ruffy spins his opponent around while in a body lock, and he explodes back to his feet. St. Denis times a head kick and goes after a takedown, so Ruffy responds with an intercepting knee. St. Denis tackles the Brazilian to the mat, and he assumes full mount but actually steps to the side so he can retain a controlling posture.
St. Denis gets in a body lock from behind as Ruffy scrambles to turn to his back, and this allows St. Denis to assume full mount again. St. Denis wraps up an arm-triangle choke, and he has it tight but the Fighting Nerds export is able to tough it out. St. Denis drills him with a few ground strikes, and Ruffy muscles his way to his feet. The two tie up against the fencing, jockeying for position and trading knees. St. Denis lands a knee to the groin, or so Ruffy claims to Dean repeatedly. Dean asks the replay official to check the foul, which indeed struck him below the belt. Ruffy gets time to recover as the audience showers him with boos and then songs. Ruffy states he is good to go less than a minute in, and they get back to it. Ruffy wings a big uppercut that misses the mark, and he is countered by a head kick, jab and takedown attempt. Ruffy rebounds off the fencing and takes a flush jab on the way out. St. Denis kicks high and slaps into the guard, and he goes after two kicks to the ribs. St. Denis launches one more head kick that is blocked as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Round 2
The second round begins with St. Denis faking a takedown to open up with a head kick. St. Denis hurls a body kick and is jabbed back with a vengeance. Ruffy jumps in the air with a knee that staggers for a second, and St. Denis steels himself and forces himself into a takedown effort. St. Denis gets Ruffy down, but the Brazilian times a picture-perfect reversal to plant the local athlete on his back. St. Denis immediately opens up with an active guard, and Ruffy abandons ship and stands back up, where he misses a huge right hand. St. Denis walks him down and punches his way into a takedown shot, and a knee from St. Denis makes Ruffy cry foul once more. Dean is not hearing it this time, possibly because it is deafening in the arena. St. Denis wrangles his opponent to the ground, grappling him from behind and getting in his hooks.
With the body triangle in play, St. Denis starts clubbing Ruffy on both sides of the head. This softens the Brazilian up, so that St. Denis can fasten a rear-naked choke grip on the chin.
Ruffy is tucking in his chin to protect his neck, and St. Denis squeezes with everything he has. Ruffy is calm and composed, but the face crank is crushing his skull as the French fighter is empowered by the audience that is going positively bonkers at this point. St. Denis does not relent with his vice grip on the jaw, and Ruffy’s eyes go wide as he has tap out with the end of his fingers from the nasty submission.
At that moment, no one in the building can hear themselves think, as the legion of screaming masses explode in support of the man named “God of War.” Until today, Ruffy had never been submitted. He won’t be able to say that anymore, but he is nothing but gracious and professional as he congratulates St. Denis for beating him. That makes 11 finishes this evening, tying the UFC’s single-event record. What a night it has been, and we still have one more to go.
The Official Result
Benoit St. Denis def. Mauricio Ruffy R2 2:56 via Submission (Face Crank)
Angelo picks Maurício Ruffy confidently, criticizing the hype around Saint Denis. He points out Saint Denis' losses where he was dominated, and argues that Ruffy's dynamic striking and takedown defense will be too much. He believes Ruffy will 'style on' Saint Denis and land clean, big shots. He plans to parlay and bet on Ruffy but is waiting for the line to tighten further.
Big Brady picks Maurício Ruffy, believing he will dominate on the feet. He notes Saint Denis has poor striking defense (41%) and has been knocked out before. He thinks if Saint Denis cannot get takedowns, he is in trouble. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Connor picks Ruffy, believing he might knock Saint Denis out. He notes that Saint Denis has a Patrick Cummins-like ability to take clean shots and that his defensive flaws are severe. Connor thinks Ruffy's accuracy and power will find a home, and that Saint Denis's aggressive style plays into Ruffy's hands. He acknowledges that Ruffy's level of competition is questionable but sees the potential for a spectacular finish.
The host acknowledges Ruffy's flashy knockout style and fan support but believes he is not ready for Saint Denis's grapple-heavy, smothering approach. He expects Saint Denis to grapple Ruffy, take his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke for a submission victory.
The Guru picks Maurício Ruffy with high confidence, citing Ruffy's speed, shot selection, and ability to set traps. He criticizes Saint Denis' slow, chin-up striking and believes he is ripe for a knockout. He predicts a first-round KO, comparing it to McGregor vs Aldo, and dismisses concerns about Ruffy's grappling.
Zane picks Saint Denis because he knows what Saint Denis will do—aggressive pressure and physicality—and he doubts Ruffy is ready for that sustained onslaught. He notes that Ruffy's wins have come against inferior athletes and that his trick-striking style may not hold up against a relentless forward fighter. He acknowledges that Saint Denis is vulnerable defensively and may gas, but believes his pace will overwhelm Ruffy.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 54 of 70 | 77% | 77 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 5:32 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 27 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 4:32 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 44 of 54 | 81% | 50 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 54 of 70 | 77% | 36 of 51 | 11 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 24 of 33 | 22 of 24 | 8 of 13 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 12 of 27 | 44% | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 10 of 16 | 62% | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 44 of 54 | 81% | 29 of 38 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 30 | 22 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 12 of 26 | 46% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady is extremely confident in Saint Denis, calling the fight a 'sanctioned murder'. He notes Prepolec is a low-level replacement on short notice, who previously went 0-2 in the UFC. He predicts Saint Denis will win easily, either by knockout or submission in the first round, and likely earn a $50k bonus.
Connor picks Benoît Saint Denis, agreeing that Prepolec is a regional-level fighter who cannot handle Saint Denis's pressure and wrestling. He notes that Prepolec's opponents have a combined record of 44-38 and that even a washed Shane Campbell out-hustled him. Connor sees this as a clear win for Saint Denis.
The host believes Saint Denis is too strong a grappler for Prepolec, who is on short notice. He expects Saint Denis to wear Prepolec down and secure a submission within the first round and a half.
The MMA Guru picks Saint Denis, calling it a career-saving matchup. He notes Prepolec's poor UFC history, inactivity, and injuries, while Saint Denis is a heavy favorite. He expects a first or second round finish, possibly a TKO, as Prepolec is a sacrificial lamb. He mentions the odds are crazy but agrees with the pick.
Zane picks Benoît Saint Denis, arguing that Prepolec is a much less potent version of Saint Denis and could not handle Austin Hubbard's wrestling. He notes that Saint Denis will swarm into Prepolec, grab his waist, and drag him into hell with top control. Zane believes this is a straightforward mismatch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 50 of 72 | 69% | 72 of 98 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 35 of 40 | 87% | 57 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 50 of 72 | 69% | 46 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 33 of 36 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 25 of 60 | 41% | 13 of 44 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 35 of 40 | 87% | 34 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 36 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 15 of 32 | 46% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 21 of 55 | 38% | 13 of 44 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing his all-gas-no-brakes pressure and grappling will be too much for Moicano. He notes that Moicano has a shaky chin and is not dangerous enough to stop Saint Denis's forward pressure. He references Saint Denis's dominant first round against Dustin Poirier, suggesting that same level of pressure will overwhelm Moicano. He dismisses the staph infection excuse as a potential factor but leans toward Saint Denis's performance being legitimate.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis by first-round knockout, describing him as a beast who pushes a crazy pace with power in his hands and body kicks. He notes Moicano's chin has always been an issue and Saint Denis will bring a car crash that Moicano won't survive. He expects an early finish.
Cody picks Benoît Saint Denis as his cash game play, citing his elite fantasy scoring in wins (109, 149, 115, 136, 105) and his aggression and wrestling ability. He notes that Saint Denis is a heavy favorite at minus 300 and has a minus 200 line to win inside the distance. Cody acknowledges that Moicano is a better technical fighter and could be a valuable tournament target, but Moicano's durability issues make Saint Denis the safer cash game pick.
Cody believes BSD is a legitimate future title challenger with relentless pressure, top-notch grappling, and physicality. He excuses BSD's loss to Dustin Poirier due to a staph infection and thinks a healthy BSD would have won. He sees Moicano's questionable chin and cardio as vulnerabilities, and expects BSD to overwhelm him with pace and aggression.
Connor picks Saint Denis because he believes Saint Denis's relentless pressure and physicality will overwhelm Moicano, who often gets hurt early and relies on wrestling to recover. He notes that Saint Denis is a strong scrambler and has never been held down, making Moicano's path to victory difficult. Connor acknowledges that Moicano could win if he survives the early onslaught, but he doubts Moicano can consistently find his grappling outlet against Saint Denis's pace.
Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by TKO. He believes BSD's pressure, power, and body kicks will be too much for Moicano, who has poor striking defense and a questionable chin. He notes that Moicano is tough and has good grappling, but BSD's wrestling and ground-and-pound should secure the finish. He also mentions that the price is high at -270, but sees value in the KO prop at plus money.
JP picks Benoît Saint Denis because he thinks Saint Denis is a problem with power and toughness. He notes Saint Denis was beating Dustin Poirier before getting clipped, and he had a staph infection in that fight. He thinks Moicano gets hit too much and doesn't have the power to put Saint Denis away. He also mentions the fight is in France, which could favor the French fighter in a close decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting BSD's aggressive style, takedown ability, and durability. He notes that Moicano's path to victory via submission is unlikely against BSD's grappling. Paul also points out that Moicano's low output and cardio issues make him vulnerable in a five-round fight, especially in front of a French crowd.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano over Benoît Saint Denis, emphasizing Moicano's underrated Jiu-Jitsu and significant experience advantage (9 years more as a pro). He notes Saint Denis' tendency to kick up and expose his back, which Moicano can exploit with body locks and back takes. He predicts a third-round submission via rear-naked choke after ground and pound.
Zane picks Saint Denis because he believes Saint Denis's constant pressure and pace will be too much for Moicano, who often gets hurt early and struggles to recover against relentless fighters. He notes that Moicano's best wins have come against grapplers who allow him to slow the fight down, but Saint Denis never stops coming. Zane also points out that Moicano's path to victory relies on surviving the early storm and then outworking Saint Denis, which he considers unlikely given Saint Denis's cardio and durability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 28 of 34 | 82% | 30 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 50 of 74 | 67% | 69 of 97 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 4:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 12 of 13 | 92% | 14 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 38 of 49 | 77% | 53 of 68 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 1 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 16 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 28 of 34 | 82% | 24 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 25 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 50 of 74 | 67% | 25 of 46 | 18 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 37 | 31 of 35 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 12 of 13 | 92% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 38 of 49 | 77% | 21 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 22 | 23 of 25 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 16 of 21 | 76% | 13 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling. He worries that Dustin Poirier's chin may have deteriorated after the Justin Gaethje knockout. He thinks Saint Denis can overwhelm Poirier early. However, he won't bet because he's rooting for Poirier.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by second-round submission. He notes that Saint Denis is younger, hungrier, and has grappling upside. He believes Saint Denis will get Poirier down and submit him, similar to how Michael Chandler did. He acknowledges Poirier's striking advantage but thinks Saint Denis's durability and pressure will be too much.
Cody points to Poirier's declining volume and durability, noting he has been outstruck in recent fights and is showing signs of wear. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's relentless pressure, cardio, durability, and progression. He believes Saint Denis will break Poirier's will as the fight goes on.
Daniel picks Poirier but is very hesitant due to Poirier's age and coming off a head kick KO loss. He acknowledges Poirier is the more skilled striker and believes he can knock out Saint Denis on the feet. However, he worries about Saint Denis's pressure, grappling, and durability, and whether Poirier still has the will and cardio to go five rounds. Daniel notes that if Poirier drops Saint Denis, he might follow him to the ground unlike against Charles Oliveira. He ultimately leans on Poirier's skill advantage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis but expresses discomfort with the -205 price. He believes BSD's wrestling and pace will be too much for Poirier, especially given Poirier's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes that BSD has finished all his opponents and has never been finished. However, he calls the line a 'dog or pass' spot because BSD has never fought anyone as tough as Poirier. He says he would rather see BSD fight someone like Rafael Fiziev before this step up. Despite the price, he picks BSD because he has never picked against him.
Jeff Fox picks Benoît Saint Denis as well, noting that he has never picked against BSD and won't start now. He acknowledges the massive step up in competition from Matt Frevola to Dustin Poirier, but believes BSD's wrestling and finishing ability are real. Fox points out that Poirier has been knocked out recently and that BSD has the power to put him away. He also mentions that BSD is younger and has a relentless pace. However, he says he won't bet real money on this fight due to the price and the step up.
Saint Denis is a relentless pressure fighter with five straight finishes. He uses leg kicks, body work, and clinch pressure to break opponents, then works to the back for rear-naked chokes. Poirier is a better striker but struggles against aggressive grapplers who can close the distance, as seen in losses to Khabib and Oliveira. Poirier does not want this fight and may be mentally checked out. I expect Saint Denis to break Poirier within the first two rounds and secure a submission.
Paul emphasizes Poirier's mileage and the fact that he didn't even know the fight was on until recently, suggesting he hasn't been sparring hard. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's hunger and youth, and notes that Saint Denis has never been finished and has shown incredible durability and pace.
The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing he will overwhelm Dustin Poirier with body kicks, takedowns, and pressure. He notes Poirier's wide hips and square stance make him vulnerable to body kicks, and that Poirier struggled with Chandler's body kicks. He predicts Saint Denis will finish Poirier by ground-and-pound TKO in round two, leading to Poirier's retirement.
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