Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
Career Averages - Nikita Krylov
Robert Whittaker
Nikita Krylov
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
AJ is excited for Whittaker at light heavyweight, calling him a new mythical fighter. He believes Whittaker will be fast and strong at 205 and sees a pathway to gold there, unlike at middleweight where Chimaev and Du Plessis block him.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker by knockout in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and power will increase at 205, and that his karate-based striking and footwork will be too much for Krylov, who he considers washed. He expects Whittaker to fend off takedowns and land hard counters.
AJ picks Whittaker to win by knockout, emphasizing his speed advantage and superior technique. He believes Whittaker's footwork and striking will be too much for Krylov, who has shown a weak chin recently. AJ notes that Whittaker's move to light heavyweight should benefit him, and that Krylov's offensive wrestling won't be a factor.
AJ is confident in Robert Whittaker in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and precision will be too much for Nikita Krylov, who has been knocked out recently. He expects a stoppage, possibly by knockout, and sees Whittaker as a contender at 205.
AJ believes Robert Whittaker will be faster and cleaner, and expects him to look good. He likes the moneyline at -135 and thinks Whittaker is live for a KO at +230. He notes Krylov has a suspect chin and expects Whittaker to win by knockout, possibly over 1.5 rounds.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker, believing he is live for the finish and that Krylov is washed. He thinks Whittaker at light heavyweight will be a beast and that Krylov has no path to victory.
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker despite concerns about the weight move. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter everywhere—faster, cleaner striking, better wrestling. He thinks Krylov is not elite and Whittaker should win. He is surprised the odds are close and thinks Whittaker's skills will overcome the size disadvantage.
Angelo thinks Whittaker is the better fighter and should win, but questions the move to light heavyweight. He notes Whittaker was a welterweight and never a big middleweight, and that Krylov will be much larger. He believes Whittaker's skill will overcome the size disadvantage.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He questions which fighter is more washed and concludes it's Krylov, noting Krylov's age, wars, and lack of wrestling recently. He acknowledges Whittaker's recent losses but believes he is still skilled and will be the better striker. He is concerned about Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and size disadvantage but thinks he can land a big shot on Krylov's suspect chin.
Big Brady leans towards Whittaker but is not confident. He calls it the '1800 gambler fight of the week' between two washed fighters. He notes Whittaker is moving up to light heavyweight and will be undersized, but Krylov has looked awful and no longer grapples. He thinks Whittaker is the better striker and might have better durability, but doesn't love the current -210 price. He might consider Whittaker by KO if the line is good.
Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 2.5 rounds at -120 for 1.5 units. He notes both fighters are chinny and have been finished multiple times, and Krylov is one of the most violent fighters in the division with a high finish rate. He sees multiple ways the fight can end early, including a knockout from either side or a submission from Krylov. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Cody picks Whittaker, arguing that Krylov lacks heart and is a glass cannon. He believes Whittaker's experience and skill will overcome the weight jump, and that Krylov's wild style leaves openings. He notes Whittaker has fought bigger guys before.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov for the upset, questioning why the odds are not closer to pick'em. He notes that both fighters are past their prime, but Krylov has the size advantage and is an opportunistic finisher. Levi is concerned about Whittaker's chin and his move up to light heavyweight, believing Krylov's power and size could be decisive.
Jacob picks Robert Whittaker but worries about his chin and the power jump to light heavyweight. He notes that Krylov is chinny and Whittaker has blitzes down the middle that could knock him out. He placed a bet on Whittaker inside the distance because Krylov is hittable. He is cautious about the weight move but believes Whittaker is the better fighter.
Lucrative James picks Nikita Krylov via KO, comparing Whittaker's move to light heavyweight to Chris Weidman's failed attempt. He believes Whittaker's chin won't hold up against the size and power of a natural light heavyweight, and that Krylov's physicality will be too much. He notes Whittaker's skill advantage but expects a knockout finish inside the distance.
The host notes that Whittaker's odds have moved from -190 to -125, making it a more bettable line. He expects Whittaker's speed to be the difference, finding the chin early and often to secure a knockout.
The host leans with Whittaker's speed and power to find Krylov's chin for a knockout, but has low confidence due to Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and questions about durability and size. He would need a better price than -190 to bet.
Paul picks Whittaker but is very hesitant due to the move to 205 and Whittaker's age and recent performances. He notes Krylov's wildness and questionable chin, but worries about Whittaker's durability and power translation.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by KO in the first or second round. He believes Whittaker's technical striking and speed will be too much for Krylov. He notes that Krylov's only path to victory is power and aggression, but Whittaker can defend that. He predicts Whittaker will catch Krylov with a lead left hook as Krylov throws a high kick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 66 of 142 | 46% | 70 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 67 of 145 | 46% | 192 of 282 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 29 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 37 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 73 of 83 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 66 of 142 | 46% | 62 of 135 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 51 of 123 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 67 of 145 | 46% | 41 of 105 | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 54 of 128 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 34 | 58% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 15 of 35 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 9 of 27 | 33% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 16 of 38 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 28 | 71% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 6 of 22 | 27% | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 11 of 31 | 35% | 9 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-150); de Ridder (+120)
Round 1
There is one more fight on the docket today, and it should be a good one. Former champ Whittaker (26-8, 17-6 UFC), dead set on one final run at the middleweight throne, will have to get through de Ridder (20-2, 3-0 UFC) to start it off. This interesting stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Marc Goddard, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue instructions and elicit a glove touch. They touch gloves. It’s time for some action.
De Ridder strikes first with an awkward front kick, and he turns to the side to avoid the Whittaker blitz. Whittaker throws a kick that is caught, and he bounces off his knees on the floor and then drives home a few short uppercuts on the inside before getting his leg back. De Ridder hangs on to Whittaker in the tie-up, and an oddly angled stalemate ensues with both men not willing to make a mistake. “RDR” plants a couple knees to the body to force Whittaker to push him away, and Whittaker resets and lunges and tags the Dutchman with a one-two. The punches from Whittaker cause some damage on the inside corner of de Ridder’s left eye, and he targets the same spot with long, sharp jabs. “RDR” fails badly on a takedown shot, with Whittaker easily staving off the attempt and lashing out with a leaping left hook. Whittaker stays in the center of the cage, looking for his left hand.
Whittaker connects with a left and a right on the underdog, and he clips him a second time and marks his nose up. De Ridder attempts a kick, and Whittaker swats it away and backs him off with long punches. A labored shot from “RDR” is easily stuffed, and he follows it with a front kick. Whittaker shuts him down, taking a knee as he circles away that slow him enough to allow de Ridder to grab hold of him. Whittaker breaks free with 90 seconds to go, where his jab off the temple rattles de Ridder. De Ridder responds with a head kick that is blocked in time. Whittaker’s lunging left hands reach the target more often than not, and his follow-up right hand is money. When “RDR” commits to a kick, Whittaker tags him with a right hand to stop it from going anywhere. De Ridder steps in with two big knees, and Whittaker retaliates by wrapping a left hand around his head. Whittaker catches his man at the end of a right hand, and he blocks two front kicks as the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 2
Whittaker comes out of his corner with his hands by his waist, looking for ways to dart in. He sneaks in a long left, and when countered, he slips and recovers. De Ridder whiffs on a left hook, with Whittaker able to back him away with a check left hook. Whittaker tries to catch him on the other side with a kick, and when that misses, he jabs and is ready to stuff the takedown that comes. They crash together, and de Ridder takes the worst of an uppercut that spins him around. Whittaker crowds the Dutchman, picking his shots carefully and not staying in the same place long to get caught. De Ridder does wing a left hand at him that partially lands, and Whittaker is quick to move and sway. Whittaker gets off a left up top as “RDR” attacks him with a one-two, and he allows de Ridder to approach him and go for a knee so he can fire off a right hand. De Ridder jabs his way forward, and Whittaker ducks and cracks him with a right hand.
De Ridder stabs out a right hand and plants his knee on Whittaker’s chest, and Whittaker responds with a left hook. De Ridder nails his foe with another knee up the middle, with his momentum carrying him into a successful takedown. “RDR” searches for a submission quickly, and Whittaker recovers to guard and uses butterfly hooks to get enough space to get out. De Ridder drops down a number of left hands on the bloodying nose of his opponent, all while imposing his weight on top and getting to half guard. Whittaker recovers back to guard, moving and swaying to evade the shots from above. De Ridder elbows his foe in the stomach, and he jams Whittaker up with an elbow on the face as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 3
Whittaker bounces around to start off the round, looping a left hand partially around the raised guard to start. “RDR” fakes a takedown shot and nails the former champ with a knee, and his second knee gets Whittaker’s attention and drives him back. Whittaker is against the ropes, figuratively speaking, and he unloads a mighty right hand in response that sends de Ridder crashing to the floor. Whittaker hovers over the Dutch fighter, blasting him with ferocious ground-and-pound as Goddard watches on closely. De Ridder manages to work his way to his feet, where he initiates a clinch and leans on Whittaker to catch their breath. Whittaker wants out of the tie-up, countering a knee with an overhand right. The shot from the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” fails, with Whittaker able to stop this attempt and reply with a one-two. De Ridder replies in kind. Whittaker tags de Ridder coming in with a right, and both men are wearing it and sucking wind at the midpoint of the third round.
Whittaker comes up just short of his right hand, and de Ridder tackles him to the floor with relative ease. De Ridder starts smothering as he slowly moves into half guard, keeping his weight down on the former champ to force him to remain flat on his back. De Ridder pops over to side control, and Whittaker turns to pull him back to half guard. Whittaker nearly scrambles well enough to escape, but de Ridder’s top control prevents him from getting out. De Ridder lowers himself down to set up a brabo choke, looping his arm under the armpit and letting it go when Whittaker is wise to it. De Ridder holds on, grinding his elbow down but not striking with much. De Ridder sits on top to lower a few elbows down, and it will be interesting to see if the ground control of “RDR” swayed judges to award it in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 4
Reaching the championship rounds, it is de Ridder who starts off pushing the pace. Whittaker stabs out a left hand while “RDR” steps in with a knee, using the forward movement to tie Whittaker up. De Ridder attempts and fails to complete a body lock takedown, setting for leaning against the former champ. Whittaker bails out of it and puts a one-two on the chin, and his right hand intercepts a step-in knee from his opponent. De Ridder pursues the clinch again, and Whittaker hand-fights and absorbs a single knee to the gut before getting out. De Ridder shoots from a wide berth, and Whittaker stuffs it, but de Ridder is once more clinging to him. De Ridder winds up to bop the Aussie on the nose with a shoulder strike, and he replicates it but sacrifice throws himself to the floor. Whittaker stands back rather than dealing with the grappler in his element.
Whittaker dances out of the way of long jabs and knees, popping de Ridder with a solid left hand. Both men score single power punches until de Ridder walks Whittaker to the fence to force him to carry his weight. When Whittaker escapes, he barely is able to slide past a head kick. De Ridder flicks out a jab, and he fakes a kick and lands another. Whittaker retaliates with a few punches down the middle, and the big left hand that lands on him does not budge him. Whittaker bounces off the fence and looks for a left hook, and it is de Ridder who hits him harder with a stern knee. De Ridder wings a right hand that stumbles the former champ, and he throws a follow-up so hard that he nearly falls over. Whittaker reaches out with a few inaccurate punches, ending the round by catching de Ridder with a short right hand.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 5
It could be all tied up going into the fifth frame, and Whittaker appears the fresher of the two. He springs into action behind long, rangy jabs. By pouncing in and out, Whittaker is able to get away from most counters. De Ridder manages to get him back with a left hand, but Whittaker scores several more and fights out of a single. Whittaker ducks down and cracks de Ridder with a right hand, and de Ridder ties him up and pushes him to the wire. Whittaker tries hard to escape, not allowing de Ridder to take him down, but he otherwise eats short strikes that are counting. Whittaker breaks off and watches a high knee go past him, but de Ridder uses this to close the distance. Whittaker again gets out, and he thinks about a kick but does not have enough in the tank. He does lunge forward with a left, and “RDR” retorts with a trip that Whittaker is able to bounce down and up to recover. Whittaker elbows his man to break away.
The former champ sticks jabs in his foe’s face, and de Ridder goes back for the clinch. A knee from “RDR” does land to the side, and after a brief stalemate, Whittaker fights out of it and rips a right hand to the midsection. Whittaker goes to the same spot again, and de Ridder bops him with a few jabs and drills him with a right hand. De Ridder uses a knee to close the distance so he can tie the ex-champion up, and the fans do not love the approach of the Dutch fighter. Whittaker stands his man up by stopping a takedown and clipping him with a right hand. De Ridder reaches down for a takedown, partially lands a knee and backs up to the wall. “Bobby Knuckles” kicks his man in the face, and de Ridder ties him up. Whittaker is desperate to get out of this, even trying to catch a knee to turn out. He is stuck against the fencing until time has elapsed, and it could go either way.
Having won against one of the biggest names in the division, de Ridder has one name in mind: champ Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” will be squaring off against Khamzat Chimaev in a few weeks, so his dance card is full. When “RDR” does fight again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (48-47 Whittaker)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder (48-47 de Ridder)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder (48-47 de Ridder)
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Robert Whittaker via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.
Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)
Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.
Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.
Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.
Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.
Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.
Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.
The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.
Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.
Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-142), Aliskerov (+120)
Round 1
The main event of “UFC Saudi Arabia” sees former middleweight champ Whittaker looking to stay in the title picture, as he faces short-notice opponent Aliskerov, who stepped up for the ailing Khamzat Chimaev and finds himself with the opportunity of a lifetime, in position to jump the line at 185 pounds. Drawing the final referee assignment of the evening is Marc Goddard. They touch gloves and set up in matching orthodox stances, and Aliskerov reaches out with a high front kick that comes up short. Whittaker scores with a right leg kick. Aliskerov throws a body kick that Whittaker parries with his arm. Whittaker ducks into range with a double jab. Whittaker blisters Aliskerov with a short right hand, then a left. The Dagestani goes staggering back and Whittaker follows up with a head kick that doesn’t land perfectly, but does damage as well.
“The Reaper” lives up to his name, claiming Aliskerov’s soul with a crushing right uppercut
. Aliskerov drops in place, and only one or two follow-up blows get through before Goddard is there for the stoppage. Fantastic work from “Bobby Knuckles.”
The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Ikram Aliskerov R1 1:49 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.
Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.
Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.
JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.
Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 95 of 175 | 54% | 95 of 175 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 67 of 151 | 44% | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 38 of 62 | 61% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 95 of 175 | 54% | 63 of 143 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 172 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 67 of 151 | 44% | 39 of 117 | 8 of 12 | 20 of 22 | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 38 of 62 | 61% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 27 of 49 | 55% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 32 of 55 | 58% | 20 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 26 of 54 | 48% | 16 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 58 | 43% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 14 of 48 | 29% | 7 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-225), Costa (+185)
Round 1
For the co-main event, the particulars of this middleweight matchup are extremely close. Separated by four months in age, one inch in both height and reach—but not both for one man—and very similar takedown defense rates, Whittaker (24-7, 15-5 UFC) vs. Costa (14-2, 6-2 UFC) appears to be a quite well-matched fight. Both men do prefer to end fights via knockout, but it has been since 2017 for the former and 2018 for the latter to procure a stoppage via strikes. Knowing this could go the long haul but be quite a fun one, referee Mike Beltran dons his hard hat. Both men are incredibly intense and do not touch gloves, and instead they go right after it. Perhaps having studied the strategy of Israel Adesanya against Costa, Whittaker goes right to low kick after low kick. Costa throws back with a left hand that reddens up Whittaker’s cheek, and he blocks a big high kick in the nick of time. Costa checks a leg kick, but Whittaker continues to target the lead wheel. Costa attacks another head kick, and Whittaker sees it coming and defends it, but the sheer impact knocks him to the side. Costa’s power punches redden up Whittaker’s face, and Whittaker goes after another kick down low. Costa partially checks it, and his leg begins to swell. Whittaker dips back to counter a lunging Costa with a big right, and when Costa strikes back, Whittaker beans him with a left hook. Costa stuns Whittaker with a straight left hand, but Whittaker rushes at him and tags him with a few punches. Costa smiles and laughs, and Whittaker punches him in the face again a few times. Whittaker blitzes with a right hand and a harsh calf kick, and Costa is struggling to plant on the lead leg after about three minutes as his shin swells. Costa prepares to check another kick, and he leans to the proper direction as a blazing fast right hand from the Aussie soars past him. Costa eats a sharp jab and walks into a second, and he flicks out a power jab in response. Whittaker charges with a right down hand down the middle, and Costa smiles. “Bobby Knuckles” scores a low kick on one leg, and when Costa switches stances, Whittaker lands one on the other side. Costa allows Whittaker to crowd him with offense so he can dig some body shots, but he does not escape unscathed as Whittaker targets him up top. Whittaker kicks him in the chest with a side kick, and Costa spins suddenly with a wheel kick that rings the former champ’s bell. Whittaker, hurt and wobbled like a baby deer, bites down on his mouthguard and swings for the fences. The round ends with the two middleweights brawling, and that single power strike might have stolen the Brazilian the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
Whittaker comes out of his corner no worse the wear, and his sea legs appear to be beneath him. Whittaker goes after low kicks and connects with a few punches up top. Costa responds with his own calf kick and a right hand, and he zooms up a head kick from his lead leg that slams into Whittaker’s guard. Costa snaps the head back with a jab, and Whittaker gives him two back to think about. Whittaker kicks Costa upside the head, and Costa eats it and sticks his tongue out. Costa connects with a vicious leg kick, and Whittaker’s lead leg is welting up as well. Whittaker responds immediately with his own calf kick, and a responding jab from Costa busts up the former champ’s nose. Costa keeps pushing out the jab, intercepting Whittaker until his thumb slides out and jabs into Whittaker’s eye. Costa smiles sheepishly, and Whittaker gets a pause. Whittaker wants to get right back to it, and he drives kicks into Costa’s lead leg on the restart and swings hard up high. Costa continues to jab up his foe’s bloody mug, but Whittaker is outlanding him and doing so with power. Whittaker rolls his shoulder to move with a punch, and he staggers Costa with a right hand and a thudding calf kick. Whittaker winds up with a power right hand, and a left that follows gives Costa further pause. Whittaker delivers a vicious kick to the same spot, and he unloads with a combination that knock Costa’s head around like a heavy bag. Costa waves him on, but Whittaker does not bite and instead settles back down to chipping and working on the lead leg. Costa goes up high twice with two kicks that are blocked, and he hops back to avoid the brunt of a leg kick and a right hand. Whittaker gets off a side kick to the torso, and Costa prods out a jab to back Whittaker off. Costa whips a kick right by Whittaker’s beard, and he absorbs a flush low kick that makes his leg wobble. Whittaker hits Costa with everything he has, but the Brazilian just absorbs it and smiles. Costa wanders forward, but the round ends before he can reach out with anything.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 3
The last round opens with Costa running out to the center of the cage, and he lets go with a one-two. Whittaker shrugs it off and powers out a pair of jabs. Costa jabs the body back, and he swipes out with a calf kick that breezes past the front leg. Whittaker darts out with a left hook that lands on the temple, and the two clash with kicks at the same time. Whittaker’s jab is finding its home, and his leg kick does as well. Costa connects with a stern low kick, and Whittaker crowds him and cracks him with a huge right hand. Costa goes back to the leg kick, and Whittaker bounces back away from the looping shots that come at him. Costa drives a knee to the chest to get Whittaker’s attention, and they crash together and disengage. Whittaker checks a kick and stumbles Costa with a left hook, but Costa recovers himself and eats another left hand. Whittaker races forward with a fierce right hand, and Costa’s chin is granite as he takes these shots that would fell heavyweights. Costa takes a hard leg kick and points at the groin to draw a brawl, and Whittaker does not throw his game plan in the trash and swing recklessly. They trade leg kicks, and Costa pushes out a front kick. Whittaker reaches out with two left hands, and he blocks a head kick that flies at him. Whittaker gets off another swiping left, and he pokes a jab out to follow before nearly kicking out Costa’s lead leg. Costa strikes with a jab, and Whittaker does the same and dips a hook. Whittaker snaps the head back with a jab, and Costa is right there in his face to jab him back. Costa attempts another spinning wheel kick, but he misses, and Whittaker makes him pay with a short combination. Whittaker lashes out with another brief combo, and they both unleash fiery kicks that land at the same time. These two are going strike for strike as time ticks off the clock in this absolute blood and guts affair, and the damage from Whittaker’s blows have finally drawn some blood. Whittaker wings a left hand, and his leaping strikes find the mark as he backs off to avoid counters. Costa walks through a few left hands, and he fires off a high kick. Whittaker shoots for a takedown, bails on it, and comes up top with two mighty hooks. Both middleweights raise their arms after a terrific hard-fought battle, and time expires. This was worth the wait.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Paulo Costa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.
Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.
Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.
Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 32 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 62 of 104 | 59% | 74 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 62 of 104 | 59% | 38 of 77 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 41 of 77 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 44 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 9 of 26 | 34% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 33 of 50 | 66% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-400), du Plessis (+300)
Round 1
Depending on the outcome of this fight, a title fight at 185 pounds may be the reward. Former champ Whittaker (24-6, 15-4 UFC) will try to hold the line and earn another crack at Israel Adesanya, while the surging Du Plessis (19-2, 5-0 UFC) is hoping to shock the masses. The two have up to 15 minutes to figure things out, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. The gloves are touched, and Whittaker moves on the outside and tosses up a head kick. Du Plessis responds with a low kick, and he backpedals when Whittaker comes at him with a one-two. Du Plessis reaches with a kick to the midsection, and he walks into a leg kick and misses the mark on a counter. Whittaker chops at his lead leg and comes over the top with a right hand, and he splits the guard with a left. The former champ leans back from a head kick, and he evades a looping left hook that follows. Whittaker doubles up on the jab and intercepts a kick to crack the South African with a left hand. The jab from Whittaker disrupts the oncoming Du Plessis, and he checks a leg kick. Du Plessis has another kick checked, and he takes an awkward step back. Whittaker punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Du Plessis defends with a guillotine choke as he falls to his back. Whittaker steps to the left side to easily shake off the choke, and he looks to establish top position. Du Plessis fights his way back to his feet with the wall behind him, and he fires out a front kick that misses the mark. Whittaker reaches him with a right hand, and he gets surprised with a check right hook. Whittaker flicks out a few jabs, and he swings a left and a low kick. Du Plessis chains a few punches together to make Whittaker bounce off the cage wall, and Whittaker ricochets off of it to get his own strikes off. Du Plessis times a knee up the middle when Whittaker ducks down, and he kicks right into Whittaker’s shin. Whittaker connects with a few left hands to mark up Du Plessis’ nose, and he absorbs a flush calf kick. The two crash together, and Du Plessis grabs hold of the former champ with a head lock and throws Whittaker to the floor. Du Plessis threatens with a potential brabo choke, and he releases the grip to slash down with an elbow that rips open a cut on Whittaker’s temple. Du Plessis passes guard with 20 seconds to go, and he sets up another brabo choke with seconds to go. When that fails, Du Plessis postures up and lays into Whittaker with punches and elbows to put an exclamation point on the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center to open up the second round with a glove touch, and Whittaker is ready to get his jab going early. When Du Plessis kicks low, Whittaker throws high with a left hand and a head kick. Whittaker snaps the head back with a jab, shutting down the offense mid-swing from Du Plessis. Whittaker blocks a pair of speedy punches, and he stomps down with a kick to the knee. The two come together and Whittaker raps his man on the chin with a right hand. Whittaker absorbs a jab and responds with two back, and he chains it into an overhand right. Du Plessis walks into a left hook, and he has one more leg kick checked. Whittaker reaches his man with a head kick, and he takes a body kick right back. Whittaker slings a left hook and a calf kick, and he leans back from the counters that buzz past his beard. Whittaker springs in with two lefts and gets away before a counter can find the target. Du Plessis reaches out with a straight right hand that frazzles the former champ, who drops down to his knees in rough shape. Du Plessis is surprised at his handiwork, and he does not capitalize immediately. When Whittaker wobbles back to his feet, Du Plessis is on him now. “Stillknocks” drills Whittaker with a long series of punches to the body and head, and it is a right to the body that puts Whittaker firmly in the danger zone. Whittaker collapses to a knee, and Du Plessis swarms him with a ferocious combination that pummels “Bobby Knuckles” and puts him away once and for good. This is an enormous upset, and a phenomenal performance for the immediate title challenger. The victory is so stunning that champ Adesanya approaches UFC President Dana White to request an in-cage challenge. The UFC strikes while the iron is hot, stating that Du Plessis will indeed challenge Adesanya for the belt in Sydney in a few months. When they come together in the cage, things do not go well, as Adesanya hurls racial epithets and tries to draw a reaction out of his prospective opponent and “African brother.” Adesanya shouts about Du Plessis’ African DNA, and commentator Joe Rogan is just along for the ride at this point. The fighters jaw at one another until the promotion decides to move on, and the two are separated. This awkward exchange does not, however, take away from the accomplishment of Du Plessis, who put an incredibly durable Whittaker away with style points.
The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Robert Whittaker R2 2:23 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.
Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.
Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.
James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.
Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.
Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 74 of 166 | 44% | 74 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 33 of 116 | 28% | 38 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 22 of 56 | 39% | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 10 of 45 | 22% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 74 of 166 | 44% | 49 of 138 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 19 | 72 of 163 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 33 of 116 | 28% | 15 of 94 | 7 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 22 of 56 | 39% | 15 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 14 of 41 | 34% | 6 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 53 | 47% | 17 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 10 of 45 | 22% | 4 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 27 of 57 | 47% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 9 of 30 | 30% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-230), Vettori (+195)
Round 1
Even though these two middleweights are in the top three or four of their division, this match between former champ Whittaker (23-6, 14-4 UFC) and fiery ex-title challenger Vettori (18-5-1, 8-3-1 UFC) may be little more than a stay-busy fight as long as Israel Adesanya holds the title. These two top contenders are taking it quite seriously, and so is referee Jason Herzog. There is no interest in a glove touch, as these two would rather get right to the action. Whittaker lands first with a lunging low kick, and he connects with another right after to the same spot. Vettori crashes in to engage, but Whittaker is able to dodge them all. Whittaker scores a low kick and escapes the counters that fly, and he is able to beat Vettori to the punch in a few exchanges. Vettori loads up on a heavy inside leg kick as he gets cracked with an overhand right, and Whittaker reaches him with a left hand when they settle. Whittaker catches the Italian coming in with a swatting left, and he flusters Vettori with his movement. Vettori snakes in a left hand over the top, and Whittaker leans back as another is aimed at his jaw. Vettori times a dipping Whittaker with a sharp left, only to get popped with a swiping right hook. “Bobby Knuckles” stabs breadbasket with the toes with a front kick, forcing Vettori to shoot in, and Whittaker easily turns him around and separates. They both paw at one another with single strikes, and Vettori loads up on a body kick. Whittaker secures two left hands, and he absorbs a body kick so that he can snap out a right hand. Vettori ignores a jab to step in with a knee, and the horn sounds to end the close round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the middle, and Whittaker lands the first blow with a stomping kick to the knee. He follows it with a kick to the ribs, and he hops back when Vettori tosses out a right hand. Whittaker fires a high kick that makes him fall over before it can reach Vettori, but he climbs back up with no issue. Whittaker leans back as a head kick soars past him, and he springs away when Vettori gives chase with a few punches. Vettori clinches up the former champ and pushes him to the wall, and Whittaker frames him off and gets back to the middle of the Octagon. “The Italian Dream” dreams up a head kick, but it floats past Whittaker. Whittaker then responds with a head kick, and as it skims off the head, he connects with a follow-up right hand that stuns Vettori. Whittaker puts a front kick up to split the guard, and Vettori gives one jab back in response. The punches from Vettori are out of range, and Whittaker is able to close the distance and pop him in the chops and get out of the way before a counter comes. Whittaker launches another head kick, and as it gets blocked, he pounds a right hand on the chin. Vettori blocks another head kick, but it gets through the guard and he is wobbled. Whittaker does not let things go, instead staying measured and allowing Vettori to hit air. Whittaker pushes out a right hand down the pipe, and he sneaks up a speedy head kick that careens off the block. Vettori appears to have his legs beneath him again, but he cannot seem to connect with any meaningful offense. Whittaker bullies him back with punches off the arms, and he nails Vettori with a right hand and a head kick. The Italian bounces off the fence and right into a fist of “Bobby Knuckles,” and Whittaker is in his element. When Vettori comes forward, Whittaker chops a side kick on the knee that hyperextends it for his foe. Whittaker drills his man with a straight right hand, and the horn sounds. As it does, Vettori limps back to his corner, possibly compromised from the leg strikes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 3
Vettori is motivated going into Round 3, with a higher pace, but he still cannot consistently find the mark. Whittaker plants the ball of his foot on Vettori’s body several times, and he stands there a little too long, allowing Vettori to score a few punches. Vettori gives chase as Whittaker moves quickly, and he tries for a high kick only to get caught on the way up with a right hand. Vettori walks through a punch so that he can pound a left hand on the chin, and the responsive strike from the former champ opens a cut on Vettori’s left cheek. Whittaker jabs and fires off a head kick, and Vettori smiles but he is hurt. Whittaker jumps forward with a right hand, and he snaps the head back with another. Whittaker swings a high kick that ends up kneeing Vettori on the top of the head, and Vettori’s eyes go wide but he remains on his feet. Vettori kicks low, only to get it checked, and Whittaker replies with one that lands. “Bobby Knuckles” plants a right hand on the cheek, knocking Vettori back and making Vettori check himself. Vettori gathers steam and looses a head kick, and Whittaker leans back and watches it soar past him. Vettori attempts a takedown entry, and Whittaker tosses him aside and busts him in the face with a right hand. Whittaker side kicks the knee and then uses his other leg to belt Vettori upside the head, and Vettori is guessing and eating shots without any hope of response. As Vettori plans on defending a head kick, Whittaker shoots in low and takes him down to make a point. Vettori sits up and turns to his knees, and Herzog informs Whittaker that his foe is grounded. Whittaker elects instead to uppercut Vettori a few times, before Vettori climbs back up to his feet. Vettori looses a head kick, and Whittaker responds with three that land time and again. The bell sounds to end the 15-minute showcase in striking, with Whittaker putting on a master class.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (30-27 Whittaker)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (30-27 Whittaker)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (30-27 Whittaker)
The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.
Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.
The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.
Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 79 of 169 | 46% | 98 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 59 of 136 | 43% | 74 of 151 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 79 of 169 | 46% | 36 of 108 | 14 of 23 | 29 of 38 | 77 of 167 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 59 of 136 | 43% | 38 of 105 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 20 | 54 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 18 of 34 | 52% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 16 of 41 | 39% | 9 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 33 | 36% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 33 | 51% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 16 of 35 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 13 of 22 | 59% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.
Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.
Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.
Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.
Nikita Krylov - Fight History
AJ is confident in Robert Whittaker in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and precision will be too much for Nikita Krylov, who has been knocked out recently. He expects a stoppage, possibly by knockout, and sees Whittaker as a contender at 205.
AJ is excited for Whittaker at light heavyweight, calling him a new mythical fighter. He believes Whittaker will be fast and strong at 205 and sees a pathway to gold there, unlike at middleweight where Chimaev and Du Plessis block him.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker by knockout in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and power will increase at 205, and that his karate-based striking and footwork will be too much for Krylov, who he considers washed. He expects Whittaker to fend off takedowns and land hard counters.
AJ believes Robert Whittaker will be faster and cleaner, and expects him to look good. He likes the moneyline at -135 and thinks Whittaker is live for a KO at +230. He notes Krylov has a suspect chin and expects Whittaker to win by knockout, possibly over 1.5 rounds.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker, believing he is live for the finish and that Krylov is washed. He thinks Whittaker at light heavyweight will be a beast and that Krylov has no path to victory.
AJ picks Whittaker to win by knockout, emphasizing his speed advantage and superior technique. He believes Whittaker's footwork and striking will be too much for Krylov, who has shown a weak chin recently. AJ notes that Whittaker's move to light heavyweight should benefit him, and that Krylov's offensive wrestling won't be a factor.
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker despite concerns about the weight move. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter everywhere—faster, cleaner striking, better wrestling. He thinks Krylov is not elite and Whittaker should win. He is surprised the odds are close and thinks Whittaker's skills will overcome the size disadvantage.
Angelo thinks Whittaker is the better fighter and should win, but questions the move to light heavyweight. He notes Whittaker was a welterweight and never a big middleweight, and that Krylov will be much larger. He believes Whittaker's skill will overcome the size disadvantage.
Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 2.5 rounds at -120 for 1.5 units. He notes both fighters are chinny and have been finished multiple times, and Krylov is one of the most violent fighters in the division with a high finish rate. He sees multiple ways the fight can end early, including a knockout from either side or a submission from Krylov. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He questions which fighter is more washed and concludes it's Krylov, noting Krylov's age, wars, and lack of wrestling recently. He acknowledges Whittaker's recent losses but believes he is still skilled and will be the better striker. He is concerned about Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and size disadvantage but thinks he can land a big shot on Krylov's suspect chin.
Big Brady leans towards Whittaker but is not confident. He calls it the '1800 gambler fight of the week' between two washed fighters. He notes Whittaker is moving up to light heavyweight and will be undersized, but Krylov has looked awful and no longer grapples. He thinks Whittaker is the better striker and might have better durability, but doesn't love the current -210 price. He might consider Whittaker by KO if the line is good.
Cody picks Whittaker, arguing that Krylov lacks heart and is a glass cannon. He believes Whittaker's experience and skill will overcome the weight jump, and that Krylov's wild style leaves openings. He notes Whittaker has fought bigger guys before.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov for the upset, questioning why the odds are not closer to pick'em. He notes that both fighters are past their prime, but Krylov has the size advantage and is an opportunistic finisher. Levi is concerned about Whittaker's chin and his move up to light heavyweight, believing Krylov's power and size could be decisive.
Jacob picks Robert Whittaker but worries about his chin and the power jump to light heavyweight. He notes that Krylov is chinny and Whittaker has blitzes down the middle that could knock him out. He placed a bet on Whittaker inside the distance because Krylov is hittable. He is cautious about the weight move but believes Whittaker is the better fighter.
Lucrative James picks Nikita Krylov via KO, comparing Whittaker's move to light heavyweight to Chris Weidman's failed attempt. He believes Whittaker's chin won't hold up against the size and power of a natural light heavyweight, and that Krylov's physicality will be too much. He notes Whittaker's skill advantage but expects a knockout finish inside the distance.
The host notes that Whittaker's odds have moved from -190 to -125, making it a more bettable line. He expects Whittaker's speed to be the difference, finding the chin early and often to secure a knockout.
The host leans with Whittaker's speed and power to find Krylov's chin for a knockout, but has low confidence due to Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and questions about durability and size. He would need a better price than -190 to bet.
Paul picks Whittaker but is very hesitant due to the move to 205 and Whittaker's age and recent performances. He notes Krylov's wildness and questionable chin, but worries about Whittaker's durability and power translation.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by KO in the first or second round. He believes Whittaker's technical striking and speed will be too much for Krylov. He notes that Krylov's only path to victory is power and aggression, but Whittaker can defend that. He predicts Whittaker will catch Krylov with a lead left hook as Krylov throws a high kick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 1 | 72 of 137 | 52% | 94 of 164 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 40 of 108 | 37% | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 25 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 1 | 39 of 69 | 56% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 72 of 137 | 52% | 25 of 76 | 22 of 34 | 25 of 27 | 64 of 128 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 40 of 108 | 37% | 35 of 101 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 10 of 28 | 35% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 23 of 40 | 57% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 32 | 34% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 39 of 69 | 56% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 16 | 12 of 14 | 35 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 18 of 55 | 32% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)
Round 1
A 205-pound smash-‘em-up derby keeps the action going, as the two men about to set foot in the cage are eying that new $25K finish bonus on top of the raised $100K for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC) may be gunning for the latter of those two bonus checks, given his 93% stoppage rate with 23 of his 28 finishes coming in Round 1. “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) will need to be on his best behavior when taking on the offensive force of the Ukrainian by way of Russia, and referee Marc Goddard will see to that. They touch gloves.
Krylov bounces back and forth on his heels, and he times a high kick that careens off the guard and a low kick that slaps off the front leg. When Krylov tosses out another naked leg kick, Bukauskas belts him with a pair of punches. Krylov gets away with another calf kick, and his subsequent offering to the midsection comes up short. Bukauskas winds up and hurls punches at his opponent, who backs straight up and is just out of range. Krylov attempts a single-leg entry, and he proceeds to press Bukauskas against the cage wall. Bukauskas looks to use a body lock when the first effort fails, and he works his foe’s knees while grinding on him. Krylov aims to slip his leg around Bukauskas’ to disrupt his balance, and he tackles the Lithuanian to the floor for a moment. Bukauskas bounces back up and gets pushed to the wall, and the crowd is not having it.
Krylov transitions from one takedown attempt to another, but Bukauskas is able to defend them and stay upright. Goddard claps for them to do more, and Krylov grabs hold of a single and lifts the leg up high. Bukauskas springs away and barely evades a head kick on the way out, and when he tries to engage, he gets caught with a right hand on the temple. Krylov peppers with kicks on the outside, and one of his low kicks is met with a blistering right hand that makes him take a quick count of his teeth. Bukauskas swats with a left and then a right hand, and Krylov springs into action with a kick and swinging fists that miss by a wide margin. Another Krylov blitz is met with counters, but he steels himself and shakes up “The Baltic Gladiator” with a right hand. Bukauskas retreats to gather his thoughts, and Krylov lets him off the hook as the two reach the round horn for the first time of any fight tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Round 2
The 205ers touch gloves to get started, and it takes a couple seconds before Krylov unveils his first offensive tactic of a body kick. Bukauskas replies with a one-two, and they both toss out kicks at the same time to different targets. Bukauskas clips Krylov with a left hand on the way out, and fists quickly fly in an exchange at the center of the cage. Krylov works the body with a kick, and this draws out some hard swings from Bukauskas that drive him back. The Ukrainian ducks a huge haymaker and engages in a clinch with hopes of scoring a takedown, but Bukauskas is able to stifle them and spin him around against the wire. They jockey for position and trade knees up the middle, with neither man gaining the upper hand as they stay at it.
Krylov gets off a solid knee to the breadbasket and shoots, but the takedown hits a wall. Goddard asks for them to do more, and they answer by shoving one another away. Krylov’s mouthpiece falls out, and he quickly puts it back in as Bukauskas lets him do so. Krylov lumbers forward and smacks Bukauskas in the temple with a lead-leg head kick, and he skims his man on the temple with a looping left. Bukauskas sits down on a chopping kick, and he slides away from the trio of punches aimed at his mug. Krylov narrowly evades bombs chucked at his chin, although Bukauskas is able to get him a few times. Krylov strikes back, with his blows having an impact as Bukauskas’ left cheek is swelling up fast. Krylov ducks down for a looping right, and he dodges a big right hand and manages to kick the body on the way out. Bukauskas overswings his right hand and is blocked, with “The Baltic Gladiator” hunting for that home run blow. He manages to get off a spinning back kick to the body, and they trade hands until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
The two reach the final round and share a fist bump before throwing caution to the wind. Both men lob huge hooks at one another, and they largely escape the damage from them thanks to just enough head movement. Krylov goes low to high with two kicks, and he steps in and blasts Bukauskas with a left hand. Krylov gets off another booming punch, and Bukauskas sits down on counters but largely comes up short. “The Miner” digs a kick to the midsection and is countered, but the damage is done as his kick connected. Bukauskas waits for the one big opening, and Krylov is dancing around the edges of range hitting him with anything he offers. Bukauskas snaps the head back with a solid left, but it is one-and-done before Krylov rushes at him to trade leather. Bukauskas clips him again, and Krylov pays no attention to the blow and plods ever forward. He works the body with a kick, and sways back from the looping counters.
Bukauskas lands a calf kick, and Krylov nods at him and doubles up on kicks from his rear leg. Bukauskas keeps his guard up to defend himself from the blows, and he winds up on a right hand that misses the mark. Krylov tanks two punches on the jaw and frustrates his foe with push kicks to the body. Krylov sneaks in a left hand while hurling heavy shots, and Bukauskas is left playing catch-up. They trade punches after Bukauskas absorbs a calf kick, and Bukauskas tries to take advantage of the strike by loading up on more. They miss, and the crowd boos. Krylov leads with a low kick into a jab, and he gets caught by a right hand and waves Bukauskas on for more. Bukauskas gives him more with a crisp left, and Krylov dances around and switches stances a few times. Krylov dodges a wheel kick and gets blazed with a right hand, and he is on a mission. Hearing the 10-second clapper, “The Miner” digs deep and unloads with a fire and fury while Bukauskas is overloading on his own strikes.
Krylov catches his man cleanly with a ferocious right hand that sets “The Baltic Gladiator” down and forces his eyes to roll around in his head. Bukauskas turns to try to recover, crawling to his knees to the fence, and Krylov races after him and batters him with destructive right hands. One particularly effective fist shuts Bukauskas’ lights out and his post arms give way, leading to Bukauskas collapsing on his face like a failed push-up.
Goddard sees that Bukauskas went out and rushes in to stop the fight, keeping the finish streak—and buzzer-beater pattern—alive today. It may have taken just about 15 minutes to get there, but Krylov registered a huge knockout after a close battle, his first since 2022 when he smoked Alexander Gustafsson.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Modestas Bukauskas R3 4:57 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.
Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.
Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.
Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.
Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.
James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.
The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.
Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 16 of 34 | 47% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 23 of 43 | 53% | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 16 of 34 | 47% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 23 of 43 | 53% | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 17 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-190); Guskov (+160)
Round 1
In 40 professional outings, Krylov (30-10, 11-8 UFC) has only heard the final bell on four occasions. Not to be outdone, opponent Guskov (17-3, 3-1 UFC) has gone the distance a single time after 20 pro bouts. Referee Marc Goddard is well aware that this light heavyweight contest could end in the blink of an eye, and he is as ready as one could be. Before the fighters decide to punch one another in the face, they tap their gloves together respectfully.
Krylov hops around in a wide stance looking for big kicks right out of the gate. Krylov backs Guskov up with his kicking arsenal, and he tosses out a jab on one side to set up a high kick on the other. Guskov blocks the latter just in time. Krylov probes out behind his jab, aiming a kick to the body and going upstairs with punches. Krylov’s aggression is shutting down Guskov thus far, as his jab breaks up a punch combo aimed at him. Krylov cracks Guskov with an overhand right, and he does not fall into the trap of trying to go swing-for-swing with the heavy hitter. Guskov starts to open up with big punches, and Krylov gets on his bike but cannot avoid a hard body shot. Guskov catches Krylov at the end of a right hand, and he jacks his foe’s jaw with an uppercut. Not to be outdone, Krylov clips him back, and Guskov dances out of the way of subsequent swings.
The occasional jab from Guskov and power punch marks up Krylov’s face and nose. Krylov does not mind, waving his hands around to befuddle the Uzbekistan native. Krylov aims a naked body kick, and Guskov counters with a crisp right hand right down Main Street. Krylov does not budge, continue to march down the brawler and back him to the wall, where he briefly stumbles.
Krylov fakes a kick, and Guskov opens up with a huge right hand over the top that sends Krylov crashing to the floor. Krylov turns over in an effort to get out of the precarious position, but the emphatic fists keep raining down on either side of his head as Goddard watches closely. Guskov keeps on pounding on his opponent as Krylov considers a Hail Mary leglock, and he manages to put Krylov all the way out as Goddard leaps in to stop the match.
The victor hops on top of the cage to join teammate Valter Walker, where he mimes swimming while Walker is behind him paddling. It must mean something to them.
The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Nikita Krylov R1 4:18 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.
Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.
This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.
The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.
Zane picks Krylov, noting that Guskov is vulnerable to wrestling and Krylov has the skills to exploit that. He sees the potential for disaster if Krylov hesitates, but believes the path to victory is clear via takedowns and ground control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-180), Reyes (+150)
Round 1
The main card. It’s what everyone in the building came to watch. It starts off with what should be an absolute banger that could end just as quickly on the feet as it might on the ground. Sporting a 93% finish rate, Krylov (30-9, 11-7 UFC) would prefer to keep things out of the hands of the judges. Reyes (14-4, 8-4 UFC) may not match that high number, but 11 finishes in 14 victories for “The Devastator” is nothing to sneeze at. Referee Marc Goddard will have his hands full for as long as this light heavyweight clash lasts, but he is able to take a brief sigh of relief as the two touch gloves before waging battle. Krylov leads the dance with a leaping body kick, and Reyes moves quickly to the side to evade it. Reyes circles into a head kick, blocking it but taking a few punches on the chin on the way out. Krylov snaps out a left and is counter with a jab that shakes up the Russian by way of Ukraine. Krylov shakes it off and plows forward, swinging a big left hook that misses the mark and brushing past a front kick. Reyes hammers his foe’s front leg with a kick, and he is met with a body shot. Chants in support of Reyes are practically deafening, and he manages to dodge a swinging head kick by a matter of inches. Reyes resets and lashes out with a head kick that bangs into the guard, and they crash towards one another swinging hammers. The former title challenger stands firm and chambers a left hand, unloading it square on the jaw while fading back. Reminiscent of Stipe Miocic decking Fabricio Werdum, Reyes clobbers “The Miner” with a single punch that completely shuts his lights out. Krylov topples to the floor on his side, out cold, and Reyes drums him out with a couple ferocious hammerfists as Goddard races in to get between them. The crowd goes wild, and Reyes walks over to President Donald Trump—who entered the building shortly before this fight—and does his trademark dance. He then mimes hitting a golf shot, and the President grins back at him. Overcome with emotion, Reyes declares that he is not just back, but better than ever. Just like that, the 35-year-old has rattled off three straight knockouts, and he is once more in contention for the championship. A four-fight skid is now firmly in the rear-view mirror, and he calls for one more win before fighting for a belt. What a finish, one that quickly enters the list of “Knockout of the Year” due to the devastating blow from “The Devastator.” When they leave the cage, team Reyes goes to take a photograph with Trump, and he shakes hands with Trump advisor Elon Musk as well.
The Official Result
Dominick Reyes def. Nikita Krylov R1 2:24 via KO (Punch)
Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.
Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.
Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.
Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 24 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 2:39 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 24 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 2:39 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Spann | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Spann | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)
Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.
Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.
Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.
Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.
I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.
Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.
Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 42 of 81 | 51% | 108 of 157 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 57 of 121 | 47% | 171 of 251 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 46 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 31 of 64 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 54 of 78 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 86 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 42 of 81 | 51% | 35 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 34 of 68 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 57 of 121 | 47% | 42 of 100 | 12 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 93 | 12 of 17 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 58 | 44% | 17 of 46 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 20 of 36 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-165), Oezdemir (+140)
Round 1
An intriguing light heavyweight contest that virtually promises action and violence is coming over the horizon, as Oezdemir (18-6, 6-5 UFC) aims to keep his UFC record above .500 against proven finisher Krylov (28-9, 9-7 UFC) who has only gone the distance once in his 28 victories. The heavy-hitting pairing will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, and the fighters touch gloves before swinging them for the bleachers. Krylov pushes out a front kick as Oezdemir comes at him, but this does not slow Oezdemir from looking for a brawl. Oezdemir lines up several heavy punches, and Krylov is rocked early and circling on the outside. Oezdemir gives chase, and he drills Krylov again and again with destructive punches. Krylov shoots in for a takedown, badly hurt, and the Swiss fighter breaks off and confidently marches forward. Krylov again attempts a front kick, and he still does not have his legs beneath him. Oezdemir closes the distance and connects with a string of uppercuts, and Krylov again shoots in and drags Oezdemir to the floor for a second. “No Time” has no time for the ground game, as he springs back up with the wall at his side. Krylov attempts a mat return, and he clears his head as he leans on Oezdemir while landing knees to the thigh. Oezdemir bursts out of the clinch, and he allows Krylov to swing at him with his own barrage before sitting down on a calf kick. Oezdemir calms himself down and methodically approaches instead of rushing it, and Krylov gets loose. Oezdemir sprints in, and Krylov intercepts him with a crushing knee that rocks Oezdemir. “The Miner” digs deep and nails Oezdemir with a salvo of unanswered strikes, and he goes for a takedown only to fall to the ground. As Krylov keeps moving, he gets one hook in and then the other, and he isolates the neck for a rear-naked choke. The grip is around the chin and not under it, so Oezdemir grits it out and sits up. Oezdemir stands up, catches a high knee, and slings Krylov down to the ground. Krylov tosses out upkicks, keeping Oezdemir honest, until Oezdemir lowers himself into the guard. Oezdemir drops down a few hammerfists as he moves to side control, but he abandons it and stands back up. The horn sounds to conclude this thriller of a round, and judges have their hands full here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oezdemir
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Round 2
The light heavyweights meet in the middle to start off the second stanza, and Krylov strikes first with sweeping leg kick. Krylov crashes forward with a stream of punches, knocking Oezdemir back but not hurting him. Oezdemir keeps his right arm high to block the expected high kick, and it glances off the guard. Oezdemir kicks low a few times, and he pushes out a few jabs as Krylov appears the fresher man now. Krylov just misses a head kick, and he darts down to grab a double and plant Oezdemir on the canvas. Krylov moves to the guard, and he does work from on top as Oezdemir responds with elbows from off his back. Oezdemir works his way to his knees and surrenders his back, and Krylov takes this but cannot claim the dominant position. Oezdemir turns his back to the fencing, and Krylov trips him out to his knees. Krylov rips Oezdemir down to the floor again, but Oezdemir bursts upright and just dodges a head kick. Oezdemir connects with a clean right hand, and Krylov meets him with a knee up the middle. The knees turn to a takedown entry from “The Miner,” who digs down low to pull Oezdemir’s legs out and bury him on the floor. Krylov gets his wind back from the guard position, with light ground-and-pound but far more important control time given the energy expenditure thus far. Goddard tells Krylov to keep working as they stall out, and Oezdemir closes the guard and ties Krylov up to force referee intervention. Krylov continues his body-body-head strikes from above that are more stay-busy strikes, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Round 3
The seemingly spent 205ers greet with a touch of gloves to begin the last round, and both men score punches immediately. Krylov lands the cleaner of the strikes, backing Oezdemir up and getting off an uppercut and a knee. Krylov uses his forward momentum to go after a takedown, and his double sets the Swiss man on the mat again. Oezdemir appears dejected from getting grounded once more, and the ground control resumes from “The Miner.” Little in the way of offense comes from a fatigued Krylov, with the occasional punch to the body or head to remain active. Goddard stands them up at practically the midpoint of the round, and Oezdemir is energized and marches forward. Krylov keeps him at bay with a front kick, and he strings a one-two together that Oezdemir practically ignores. Oezdemir swings his fists like he is underwater, with Krylov appearing physically far fresher, and he is more active as he puts a one-two on the chin and follows it with a head kick. Krylov connects with a few more heavy blows, including a stunning right hand, and he secures a takedown to deflate Oezdemir completely. When Oezdemir defends with a triangle choke from his back, Krylov makes him pay by raining down punches that bounce his head off the floor. Krylov slowly, methodically works Oezdemir over, and he passes to the side right when the final bell perhaps surprisingly sounds. Should he get his hand raised, it will be just the second decision victory of Krylov's lengthy career.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov (30-27 Krylov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Krylov (29-28 Krylov)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Krylov (30-27 Krylov)
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Volkan Oezdemir via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.
Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.
Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 2 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 2 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 26 of 44 | 59% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 26 of 44 | 59% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-200), Gustafsson (+170)
Round 1
Gustafsson returns to 205 pounds after a brief stop at heavyweight in 2020 against Krylov, who has lost three of his last four. Marc Goddard will officiate the bout. Krylov drops Gustafsson with an overhand right during an early exchange. Gustafsson eats a series of knees as he returns to his feet, and the former title challenger is already in a world of trouble. Gustafsson clinches with Krylov to get a brief respite from the onslaught. Krylov breaks free and keeps his foot on the gas pedal.
Gustafsson catches a body kick only to get dropped by a short left hand in close quarters with Krylov still on one leg. Krylov stands over his fallen opponent and alternates left and right hands until Goddard steps in on Gustafsson’s behalf.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Alexander Gustafsson via TKO (Punches) R1 1:07
Angelo picks Nikita Krylov but is hesitant due to Gustafsson's two-year layoff and three-fight losing streak. He notes Krylov is well-rounded and has a good chin, but questions his fight IQ after the Paul Craig loss. He says the odds favoring Krylov are surprising and calls it a no-bet situation, expecting Gustafsson to look older and slower.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by finish (ground and pound or submission in round 2). He is hesitant due to question marks about Gustafsson's layoff and motivation. He notes Gustafsson hasn't won in five years and hasn't fought in two years. Krylov is more active and dangerous, but if Gustafsson shows up motivated, it's a different fight.
Cody leans towards Alexander Gustafsson, citing that his losses are to top competition and he may have recaptured motivation after a two-year layoff. He notes Krylov has durability issues and tends to fade in later rounds. Cody thinks Gustafsson can use his mobility and grappling to neutralize Krylov and win a decision. He acknowledges there are many red flags but sees value in the underdog.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Nikita Krylov, arguing that Gustafsson is past his prime and has already retired once, saying he didn't have what it takes anymore. He notes that Krylov is only 30 and entering his prime, with a well-rounded game and a Kyokushin karate background. Levi acknowledges Krylov's occasional bonehead mistakes but believes he will outwork Gustafsson. He also mentions that he likes fading washed-up fighters and that Krylov is a motivated underdog in this spot.
Gustafsson looks in phenomenal shape and has a big skill advantage over Krylov. His takedown defense is 83%. Krylov's wins are over lesser competition. If Gustafsson is even 70% of his peak, he wins handily. However, motivation is a question mark, so I'm passing on betting but predicting Gustafsson.
Paul picks Alexander Gustafsson at plus money, calling minus 200 on Krylov ridiculous. He notes Gustafsson has looked horrible recently but his losses are to elite fighters. Paul admits he doesn't have the courage to bet Gustafsson confidently and will wait for weigh-ins. He says he won't bet money on it.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov to win by submission in the first or second round. He questions Gustafsson's reasons for returning and notes Krylov is underrated. Krylov put a pace on Ankalaev and has great stand-up. Gustafsson has poor ground game and has been submitted when taken down. Krylov will take him down and secure a submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 |
| Nikita Krylov | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 |
| Nikita Krylov | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Violence is on the menu for this light heavyweight clash, as the two men scheduled to meet inside of the Octagon now combined for 41 finishes across their 42 victories. It is strange that this matchup between top-15 fighters is so low on the prelims here, but they do not seem to mind. Of the two, Krylov (27-8, 8-6 UFC) has won once by decision, while Craig (15-4-1, 7-4-1 UFC) has never before needed the judges to award him a win. Standing by is referee Lukasz Bosacki, ready to intervene at a moment’s notice. The staredown is intense, and they do not elect to touch gloves. Krylov leads off with a front kick that cracks Craig on the jaw, and Craig shakes it off and drags the fight down to the mat, pulling guard just to get it there. Krylov welcomes this, and he gets off several punches from on top until “Bearjew” locks him down with a shoulder lock of sorts. Krylov attempts to set up an arm-triangle choke in half guard from the other side, and Craig is not concerned even as Krylov exerts heavy shoulder pressure. “The Miner” sits comfortably in half guard, pounding on Craig with punches and short elbows to make Craig’s life miserable. Bosacki asks them to work, and Krylov switches over to use his forearm to press on Craig’s neck. There is no forearm choke, and instead Krylov bails on it to just squeeze his full body weight on Craig’s head. Krylov keeps his right arm beneath Craig’s neck holding on tight, and he lets go to stand up and smash Craig in the face. Craig’s lights may have gone out for a second, but he comes back online due to heavy punches as Bosacki does not seem to be concerned. Craig tries to throw his legs up for some kind of submission off his back, and Krylov shoves them aside and slugs “Bearjew” in the face a few more times to decent effect. Krylov goes back to the guard, and then stands again to bust Craig in the chops with standing-to-ground punches.
Craig cannot get Krylov off of him, but it appears he does not want to, instead timing Krylov dropping down at the perfect moment to slap his legs up and around Krylov’s shoulders. In span of five seconds, Krylov goes from punching Craig in the face to having a triangle choke locked up around his neck. Craig turns him over in hopes of taking mount, but Krylov pulls him back down to the mat even though he is in big trouble. The leg grip is not going to let go, in a Craig specialty move, and Krylov is about to go out.
Instead of falling asleep, the Ukrainian-born Krylov taps out, and Craig has done it again. From being nearly knocked out to winning by submission, “Bearjew” has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, and the crowd could not be happier for his triumphant moment.
The Official Result
Paul Craig def. Nikita Krylov R1 3:57 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Paul Craig as an underdog, noting his incredible toughness and submission threat. He thinks Krylov is more well-rounded but less dangerous, and will likely win a decision if he fights perfectly. He expects Craig to withstand a beating and find a finish on the ground. He plans to bet on Paul Craig wins inside the distance (decision no action) at plus money.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He likes Krylov's knockout power and believes Paul Craig's chin is suspect. Brady notes that if the fight goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but he thinks Krylov can avoid the grappling and finish early. He also mentions Craig's talk of retirement as a potential factor.
Cody picks Krylov but is hesitant, noting Krylov's tendency to make bad decisions and engage in grappling with submission experts. He thinks Krylov should win if he keeps it standing, but worries he might get caught. He prefers Craig by submission as a prop.
Daniel Levi picks Paul Craig by submission at +450, noting that Nikita Krylov has five career submission losses and a history of making bonehead mistakes on the mat. He believes Craig only needs one opportunity to snatch a submission, as seen against Jamal Hill. Levi acknowledges Krylov may win the minutes and has knockout potential, but at plus money, he's willing to bet on Craig's opportunistic submission game. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Craig in the UK.
Krylov has power striking and good combinations, which should overwhelm Craig on the feet. However, five of Krylov's eight losses are by submission, a huge red flag against a submission specialist like Craig. Craig is dangerous off his back, constantly throwing up submissions. The fight likely ends inside the distance, but Krylov's striking advantage should lead to a knockout. I'm picking Krylov by KO, but the fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite bet.
Paul picks Krylov confidently, arguing that Krylov has fought elite competition and improved his takedown defense. He believes Krylov's striking is far superior and that Craig's wins are overrated. He thinks Krylov will win by KO if he fights smart.
The Guru picks Nikita Krylov, arguing he is underrated and has better performances than Paul Craig. He notes Krylov held his own against Glover Teixeira and outgrappled Magomed Ankalaev in round one. He criticizes Craig's chin and mentions Craig's retirement talk. He predicts a first-round TKO on the feet, as Craig tends to go down when hit clean.
Expert Picks (19)
AJ believes Robert Whittaker will be faster and cleaner, and expects him to look good. He likes the moneyline at -135 and thinks Whittaker is live for a KO at +230. He notes Krylov has a suspect chin and expects Whittaker to win by knockout, possibly over 1.5 rounds.
AJ is confident in Robert Whittaker in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and precision will be too much for Nikita Krylov, who has been knocked out recently. He expects a stoppage, possibly by knockout, and sees Whittaker as a contender at 205.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker, believing he is live for the finish and that Krylov is washed. He thinks Whittaker at light heavyweight will be a beast and that Krylov has no path to victory.
AJ picks Whittaker to win by knockout, emphasizing his speed advantage and superior technique. He believes Whittaker's footwork and striking will be too much for Krylov, who has shown a weak chin recently. AJ notes that Whittaker's move to light heavyweight should benefit him, and that Krylov's offensive wrestling won't be a factor.
AJ is excited for Whittaker at light heavyweight, calling him a new mythical fighter. He believes Whittaker will be fast and strong at 205 and sees a pathway to gold there, unlike at middleweight where Chimaev and Du Plessis block him.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker by knockout in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and power will increase at 205, and that his karate-based striking and footwork will be too much for Krylov, who he considers washed. He expects Whittaker to fend off takedowns and land hard counters.
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker despite concerns about the weight move. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter everywhere—faster, cleaner striking, better wrestling. He thinks Krylov is not elite and Whittaker should win. He is surprised the odds are close and thinks Whittaker's skills will overcome the size disadvantage.
Angelo thinks Whittaker is the better fighter and should win, but questions the move to light heavyweight. He notes Whittaker was a welterweight and never a big middleweight, and that Krylov will be much larger. He believes Whittaker's skill will overcome the size disadvantage.
Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 2.5 rounds at -120 for 1.5 units. He notes both fighters are chinny and have been finished multiple times, and Krylov is one of the most violent fighters in the division with a high finish rate. He sees multiple ways the fight can end early, including a knockout from either side or a submission from Krylov. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Big Brady leans towards Whittaker but is not confident. He calls it the '1800 gambler fight of the week' between two washed fighters. He notes Whittaker is moving up to light heavyweight and will be undersized, but Krylov has looked awful and no longer grapples. He thinks Whittaker is the better striker and might have better durability, but doesn't love the current -210 price. He might consider Whittaker by KO if the line is good.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He questions which fighter is more washed and concludes it's Krylov, noting Krylov's age, wars, and lack of wrestling recently. He acknowledges Whittaker's recent losses but believes he is still skilled and will be the better striker. He is concerned about Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and size disadvantage but thinks he can land a big shot on Krylov's suspect chin.
Cody picks Whittaker, arguing that Krylov lacks heart and is a glass cannon. He believes Whittaker's experience and skill will overcome the weight jump, and that Krylov's wild style leaves openings. He notes Whittaker has fought bigger guys before.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov for the upset, questioning why the odds are not closer to pick'em. He notes that both fighters are past their prime, but Krylov has the size advantage and is an opportunistic finisher. Levi is concerned about Whittaker's chin and his move up to light heavyweight, believing Krylov's power and size could be decisive.
Jacob picks Robert Whittaker but worries about his chin and the power jump to light heavyweight. He notes that Krylov is chinny and Whittaker has blitzes down the middle that could knock him out. He placed a bet on Whittaker inside the distance because Krylov is hittable. He is cautious about the weight move but believes Whittaker is the better fighter.
Lucrative James picks Nikita Krylov via KO, comparing Whittaker's move to light heavyweight to Chris Weidman's failed attempt. He believes Whittaker's chin won't hold up against the size and power of a natural light heavyweight, and that Krylov's physicality will be too much. He notes Whittaker's skill advantage but expects a knockout finish inside the distance.
The host notes that Whittaker's odds have moved from -190 to -125, making it a more bettable line. He expects Whittaker's speed to be the difference, finding the chin early and often to secure a knockout.
The host leans with Whittaker's speed and power to find Krylov's chin for a knockout, but has low confidence due to Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and questions about durability and size. He would need a better price than -190 to bet.
Paul picks Whittaker but is very hesitant due to the move to 205 and Whittaker's age and recent performances. He notes Krylov's wildness and questionable chin, but worries about Whittaker's durability and power translation.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by KO in the first or second round. He believes Whittaker's technical striking and speed will be too much for Krylov. He notes that Krylov's only path to victory is power and aggression, but Whittaker can defend that. He predicts Whittaker will catch Krylov with a lead left hook as Krylov throws a high kick.
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