vs
-217 +469
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026 · Flyweight · Scheduled
Prev Fight UFC 329
Age 30
Height 5' 4"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Alessandro Costa
3.73 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.72 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.79 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
86.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Cody Durden
3.34 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.19 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
3.89 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Alessandro Costa
Moneyline
Betfair Exchange -217
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 3.57
Submission
Cloudbet 5.56
Decision
Unibet +320
Cody Durden
Moneyline
Pinnacle +469
KO/TKO
FanDuel +850
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
Cloudbet 5.45
Alessandro Costa - Fight History
SCHED vs Cody Durden
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alessandro Costa vs. Cody Durden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-265), Durden (+215)

Round 1
It’s here. UFC 329 is upon us, the tentpole event mere weeks after the stunning UFC White House event that defied expectations from a combat sports and production standpoint. Over the course of the night, fans will be treated to a whopping 14 matches of all skill and size, ranging from the elite of the elite to those that will likely get cut when they lose tonight. One such match comes here, in a must-win for Georgia native Durden (18-10-1, 7-8-1 UFC). He faces speedy Brazilian finisher Costa (16-5, 4-3 UFC) who may have a bit more leeway on his tenure here. The two flyweights bump fists with gold-standard referee Jason Herzog serving as the third man in the Octagon, and away we go!
Durden immediately hurries forward to strafe from side to side, offering up a high kick while Costa stands firm in the center of the cage. The Brazilian gets driven back with a sharp one-two, his glorious mullet waving behind him as the punches smack him in the face. They trade low kicks, with Costa keeping a very low stance in anticipation of the wrestling he believes will come his way. Durden tosses out a high kick way out of range, and a front kick is similarly inaccurate as Costa walks him down. Costa steps in and spins with a wheel kick that misses by a matter of inches, and he keeps his guard up to allow Durden’s punches to bounce off his shield. Costa drills Durden in the face with a counter right hand, and Durden knees him on the way out and slaps the lead leg with a kick as well. Costa lets fly another wheel kick, tripping and shaking his head as if to say he was not struck but rather lost his footing for a moment. Costa advances to throw hands, and Durden matadors him out of the way and dings him with an uppercut.
“Nono” strings body shots into a few upstairs, hurting Durden for a second. The American quickly shakes out of it and defends the subsequent assault, forcing Costa to reset. When Costa does that, Durden lashes out with a pair of hooks. Costa loads up on power punches, missing most of them. Meanwhile, Durden’s low kick is getting Costa’s attention. Costa turns on the jets with a minute to go, hurling hooks until he inadvertently clinches up. Durden controls him in the clinch until breaking off, and he shoots for a double-leg takedown. Costa stonewalls him and wings a huge left hand that catches him cleanly on the jaw. Costa follows it with a few more to dislodge Durden’s gumshield, and he replaces it and rushes away as his upper right cheek starts to bleed. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Costa begins aggressively, aiming another one of his wheel kicks to reintroduce himself. Durden steps in and out to score a few blows and get out of the way. Durden pounds the front leg with a kick and snaps out a right hand that stings the Brazilian. Durden motions to the floor to grab Costa’s ankle, only to bail on it and surprise his opponent with a cheeky combination. Just when Durden starts to have more success with his hands, Costa blasts him with a face with a right hand, blocks a head kick and allows Durden to fall to his back. Costa leaps on top, quickly pouncing down to side control. Durden turns, but gives up his back. Costa cinches up a body triangle and smacks him upside the head to bloody up Durden on the other side of his head. Costa wraps up a rear-naked choke grip, going palm-to-palm with a neck crank as he just wrenches on the American rather than seeking out the choke itself.
This pain choke forces Durden to seek a desperate escape plan and turn his head, but this is not in his best interest. In the process, “Custom Made” moves just enough to allow Costa to slip the forearm under the chin. From there, it is only a matter of time. Durden knows his goose is cooked and submits, tapping out a few times before the grip arm is released.
Costa sits up and thanks his opponent for the match, and Durden looks surprised before realizing that Costa is being sporting and respectful, not boastful and arrogant.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Cody Durden R2 2:19 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ thinks Alessandro Costa is a lock to win, likely by finish. He notes Costa's well-rounded skills, including grappling and power, and believes he will stop Durden. He specifically likes Costa by submission at +450, citing Costa's six submission wins, all in the first round. He also mentions Costa inside the distance at +110 and Costa by KO at +110.

Costa inside distance +110; Costa by KO +110; Costa by submission +450; Costa by submission round 1 +10000; Costa round 1 win +300; Costa by decision +300
"I think it's an Alisandro Costa showcase chance. I feel like Cody Deran still got some UFC fights left. But he's passed his finest hour. I do think regardless of how good he looked against Filio, but besides that, I …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ picks Alessandro Costa, believing he should win. He notes Costa is live for a submission as a crafty grappler, but also mentions a decision win is possible.

Costa by submission or decision
"I think Alisandro A Costa should win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ is extremely confident in Alessandro Costa, calling him a lock. He believes Costa's boxing, body work, and ground skills are a nightmare matchup for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to finish Durden, possibly by submission or knockout, and sees it as one-way traffic.

Costa by finish plus 105, Costa by submission plus 450, Costa by KO plus 200
"Aleandro Costa. I think he's a lock on this card. I think Alisandro Costa is going to bust up Cody Duran undefeat."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ picks Costa to win, likely by submission, citing his low center of gravity, physical grappling, and knockout power. He believes Durand will struggle with Costa's striking and wrestling, and that Costa's jiu-jitsu is a threat. AJ notes that Durand's recent win was at bantamweight and that cutting back to flyweight may not serve him well.

Costa by submission at +375; Costa by decision at +250; over 1.5 rounds at -190
"I think Costa's jiu-jitsu is pretty nice. I feel like at some point Costa hurts him. And I think we're looking at a submission for Costa."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa but is worried about his cardio due to two short-notice fights in six weeks. He notes Costa is dangerous early with power, while Durden is chinny but a dog who pressures forward. He thinks Costa wins early or Durden grinds him out. He is not betting at -300 odds.

Not betting on Costa at -300 due to cardio concerns.
"Costa is going to be the pick, but I'm probably not going to be betting on him at 3 to one."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa because of his power and ability to knock out a chinny Cody Durden. He notes Costa's striking style with a high guard and patient approach, and that he should knock out Durden early. However, he expresses concern about Costa's cardio and short notice, but still believes Costa should win.

"Costa powerful, dangerous, should knock out a Chinny Cody Deran. That's what should happen. That's probably what happens. I'm going to pick that to happen."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 2.5 rounds at -125 for 1.25 units. He notes Costa has power and can finish, while Durden has been finished seven times. He expects a violent fight regardless of who wins, with Costa likely finishing or Durden possibly catching Costa, who is chinny. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

Under 2.5 rounds (-125, 1.25 units); mentions Costa KO or club and sub, Durden finish possible
"I like the under two and a half rounds here. I'm not going to go crazy on it's a it's a flyweight fight at the end of the day, but, you know, Costa is a violent fighter whether he wins …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Cody picks Cody Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling, durability, and constant activity. He notes Costa's cardio issues and short notice. He believes Durden can win rounds early and possibly hold on.

"I think I'm testing Cody Deran. He is a winner at life and hopefully winner in the cage come Saturday."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Jacob picks Cody Durden because he's done betting against him, noting Durden always shows up and has dog in him. He believes Durden will get early takedowns, control Costa, and slow him down, potentially finding a finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges the risk if Durden can't get takedowns and gets chinned.

"I'm done [ __ ] betting against Cody Duran. Like every time you bet against Cody Deran like against last week against Joffrey Felo like he he just comes in and shows up and he's the one that's not on …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Lucrative James picks Alessandro Costa via KO, citing Costa's power and Durden's history of being hurt. He notes Durden's toughness and cardio but believes Costa can finish early. He admits he doesn't trust Costa at -250 and won't bet it, but predicts a knockout win.

Alessandro Costa by KO
"Alessandro via KO is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The host acknowledges that many overlooked Durden previously but now respects his pace and pressure. He expects Durden to push a high pace and pressure that Costa may not keep up with, leading to a close decision victory, provided Durden's durability holds against Costa's BJJ.

"I expect Durden to really put a pace and pressure on Costa and pull out a very close decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Alessandro Costa but is hesitant, acknowledging Durden's strong first rounds. He expects Costa to wear Durden down as the fight goes on. He prefers to bet Costa live after round one.

Bet Costa live after round one
"I will pick Aleandro Costa to wear him down as the fight goes on, but Duran probably gets takedowns and probably has some success early."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa to win by body shot TKO in the second round. He notes Costa has two finishes in a row by body shots and that Cody Durden is weak to the body. He also mentions that Costa is a short, stocky, powerful fighter who is hard to grapple, but sometimes takes a while to get going.

body shot TKO in second round; Costa should be a slight favorite, not a big underdog
"I've got Aleandro Costa here. I think he's going to beat Cody Deran with body shots. I'm going for a crafty body shot TKO pick up against the cage, the classic."
SCHED vs Matt Schnell
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-750); Schnell (+500)

Round 1
Another short-notice altered match plays out in the preliminary headliner. Needing a victory to reach the crucial .500 mark in the UFC, Schnell (17-10, 1 NC; 7-8, 1 NC UFC) will now be taking on Costa (15-5, 3-3 UFC). The latter cannot afford a defeat lest he drop below that mark himself, so this will be a very important pairing in the careers of these men even if it comes at 130 pounds to accommodate them. Referee Herb Dean will take it from here, checking in the fighters as they touch ‘em up.
The two are cautious and rather than reckless as they slowly try to get going in the cage. Neither man commits to anything of merit in the first minute, with Schnell looking for a double jab and a right hand behind it. He connects with a hefty low kick, and Costa crowds him and catches him with a right hand. Schnell rolls with it and goes to the body. Costa whips a kick to the front leg, and he steps through some hand-fighting to put his fists on the face of “Danger.”
Costa jabs to the midsection, and he blasts Schnell in the face with a blistering right hand. Schnell freezes in place, the pain and discomfort taking a moment to channel down his brainstem before he reacts, and collapses to his knees and down to his face. Costa sprawls to stop a desperate takedown effort from Schnell that might be more him falling forward than anything, and he spams a dozen hammerfists on the side of the noggin. Dean steps in while Schnell is under fire
, and Schnell seemingly still fully cognizant tackles Costa to his back and is about to start beating on him before Dean grabs him from behind and informs him the fight is over. Schnell is not amused, as he does not appear compromised or otherwise in a bad way after getting his jaw jacked like that. He accepts the questionable stoppage because there is nothing he can say or do in the cage that will reverse or change it.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Matt Schnell R1 2:32 via TKO (Punches)
13
138 MMA Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The host picks Costa, mostly because of Schnell's durability issues, noting that Costa has power and could knock Schnell out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Schnell might outpoint Costa due to higher volume. He mentions that Costa is taking the fight on short notice, which adds uncertainty.

"I'm taking Costa mostly just because the durability of Schnell doesn't seem to be there."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ sees this as a mismatch, with Alessandro Costa being a well-rounded fighter with knockout power and submission threat, while Matt Schnell is past his prime and too hittable. He expects Costa to finish early, possibly by submission, and notes the catchweight at 130 benefits Costa.

Alessandro Costa by submission +525 (explicitly mentioned as sneaky prop), early finish (implied)
"Alisandro Costa. man, six to one odds, but makes sense."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ is extremely confident in Costa, calling him a lock. He cites Costa's well-rounded skills, including Muay Thai, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu, and notes Schnell's decline with 1-4 in last five. AJ expects Costa to finish Schnell, likely by submission in round one, and sees this as a one-sided affair.

under 1.5 rounds minus 135; Costa by submission round 1
"I think Costa absolutely clears... I think Costa is a lock here. I don't see him losing this fight."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo is extremely confident in Alessandro Costa, calling it the easiest breakdown on the card. He notes Costa's power, speed, and leg kicks, while highlighting Matt Schnell's horrendous chin. He believes Costa will knock Schnell out, and says -550 is a 'deal of a lifetime' that will move to -1400 by fight night.

Odds -550, expects line to move to -1400
"Minus 550 the deal of a lifetime and it will not stay there. It'll be minus 1,400 come fight night."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by first round submission. He believes Matt Schnell is washed up, has poor durability, and can't grapple anymore. He sees Costa's power and BJJ as major threats, and expects Schnell to either get knocked out or submitted quickly.

by first round submission
"I'm going to take Alessandro Costa. Um going to take him by first round submission."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Matt Schnell has a terrible chin, having been knocked out or submitted multiple times. Alessandro Costa has power and will likely knock him out in the first round. Schnell is 36 and has considered retirement, while Costa is a solid finisher.

KO in first round
"Give me Costa by knockout in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody confidently picks Costa, citing Schnell's poor durability, cardio, and takedown defense. He notes Costa has power and multiple paths to victory, including knockout or ground-and-pound. Schnell's chin and tendency to fade make him a risky bet.

"I can't get behind Matt Snell... I think Aleandro Costa could submit."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Connor picks Alessandro Costa, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Schnell's confidence is shot and his game is too reliant on opponents making mistakes. Costa is a reliable plugger who can just be physical and grind out a win. Connor acknowledges that Schnell is dangerous and could catch a submission, but Costa is the safer pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Costa is a reliable fighter and match now is the complete opposite of that."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Alessandro Costa is picked because Matt Schnell's chin is unreliable and Costa has power in his hands. Schnell cannot sit in the pocket with Costa or he will get knocked out. Costa also has grappling skills. The host sees no clear path for Schnell and expects Costa to win inside the distance, likely by knockout.

Alessandro Costa wins inside the distance (knockout)
"I do believe Alandra Costa wins. I don't really see a clear path for match now. So feels like Alandro Costa should win inside the distance."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is a much better fighter at this point, with power and solid grappling. Schnell has a glass chin and has been knocked out repeatedly. Costa should finish him in the first round.

first round KO
"Alandro Costa knocks out Matt Schnell in the very first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is a BJJ black belt with power and strong grappling. Schnell has poor submission defense and gets finished often. Costa should dominate and eventually lock up a submission. The Costa by submission prop at +500 is a good play.

Costa by submission (+500)
"I think Costa will go out there, I think he'll put the power and pain on Chnel and I think it's just a matter of time before he either finds a knockout or a submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa by knockout in round 2, noting Costa's power and Schnell's chin issues. He expects Costa to land eventually, as Schnell cannot withstand pressure. He avoids betting the moneyline due to high price but likes the KO prop.

Costa knockout round 2
"Costa knockout round two would be my official prediction."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Zane picks Alessandro Costa because Matt Schnell has lost confidence in his stand-up after realizing how bad his chin is, and his trap-based grappling game only works against opponents who fall into it. Costa is a well-rounded, aggressive, physical fighter who can press the action, hit takedowns, and grind. Zane notes that Schnell is breakable and his game asks opponents to try to break him, which Costa can do.

Costa opened at -550, currently -900; Schnell opened at +400, currently +600. Zane notes the odds reflect the short notice and Costa's reliability.
"Schnell is a breakable fighter with a game that asks you to try and break him. Yeah And so he says here i'm defenseless. Here's a trap. Come get me hit me pussy. Yeah, and then he and then they …"
KO R2 4:56 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 1 43 of 89 48% 47 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:18
Stewart Nicoll 0 47 of 99 47% 47 of 99 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 20 of 46 43% 20 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stewart Nicoll 0 27 of 59 45% 27 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Alessandro Costa 1 23 of 43 53% 27 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:18
Stewart Nicoll 0 20 of 40 50% 20 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 43 of 89 48% 26 of 67 11 of 13 6 of 9 41 of 85 1 of 3 1 of 1
Stewart Nicoll 47 of 99 47% 26 of 73 12 of 16 9 of 10 47 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 20 of 46 43% 11 of 34 4 of 4 5 of 8 20 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stewart Nicoll 27 of 59 45% 13 of 42 5 of 7 9 of 10 27 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alessandro Costa 23 of 43 53% 15 of 33 7 of 9 1 of 1 21 of 39 1 of 3 1 of 1
Stewart Nicoll 20 of 40 50% 13 of 31 7 of 9 0 of 0 20 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-400); Nicoll (+300)

Round 1
It has not been sunshine and rainbows for these two flyweights colliding, winner of just two of their five combined appearances in the promotion thus far. Costa (14-5, 2-3 UFC) is the one who has actually prevailed, while proud Aussie Nicoll (8-2, 0-2 UFC) is aiming for his first UFC triumph. Standing guard over the flyweights will be referee Chris Tognoni, who stands back as they scurry towards one another to touch gloves.
Costa leads off pressuring forward, and this puts him in the path of a sudden spin kick from the Aussie. Costa shrugs it off and looses a pair of kicks, and he watches a spinning back kick soar past his face. Nicoll goes to the well again with another spinning kick, and it bangs into the guard. He tosses out a spinning back fist, and nearly has his leg kicked out when he plants his feet again. Costa jackhammers the front leg again, and it does not take many for Nicoll to think about another way in. Both men keep low bases as if to prepare against and preemptively defend a takedown, thus resulting in a tit-for-tat kickboxing affair. Nicoll stands in the pocket too long and gets battered back with a trio of fast punches, and he shakes his head as if to motion that he was not caught. Costa celebrates his handiwork by ripping a left to the ribs, and he has his guard up to block the eventual spin.
Costa rattles punches off the guard and kicks the front leg, and he nails the Aussie with a few punches. Nicoll has to take a quick count of his teeth before re-engaging, where he is met with sweeping calf kicks. Nicoll offers up his own leg kick on the inside, and they trade their leg-based strikes back-and-forth. Costa hammers the body again, and Nicoll crashes the pocket to grip hold of a single. “Nono” says “no no” to the takedown effort and drives Nicoll back, and he ducks a spinning back fist and catches the Aussie. Nicoll grins after absorbing a strike or two, and he plants his shin on Costa’s lead calf. Costa punches high and ducks down to shoot, but he elects instead to drive a flying knee into the chin. Nicoll gets hurt with a body shot, and he counters Costa coming in with a fierce right hand and offers up a spinning back fist but is taking shots on the way out. With Nicoll grinning like a banshee, the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
The flyweights touch gloves to start off the round, and Nicoll reintroduces himself with a jabbing front kick. It partially grazes the up, so he offers up an apology as there is no stoppage. Costa steps in with a left and gets clubbed with a check left hook. Costa surges forward with a pair of hooks, backing off to not get caught on the way out. Costa thumps the leg with a kick and slaps at Nicoll with an overhand right, and he is well aware when Nicoll offers back a spinning back kick. Nicoll tries a leaping back fist that does not do anything, and Costa shoots in for a double and is a hair away from getting Nicoll down. Nicoll frames off but ends up getting dropped on his head, with Costa taking his back. Nicoll takes a few elbows to the back of the head as he looks to wriggle Costa off his back standing, and Costa readjusts himself to not slide off. Costa disengages the back take and the two return to the center of the cage offering jabs.
Costa goes to the body with a kick, and Nicoll does the same. Nicoll sneaks in two punches, and he follows them with two more and a level change. Costa puts his back to the fence and uses his leverage to turn Nicoll around and lean him on the cage. Costa turns his foe around to knee him in the gut, and he ducks away when Nicoll hurls punches at him. Costa loads up with power punches, and he bangs heavy hooks off the sides of Nicoll’s dome. A takedown falls apart, and Costa knees Nicoll square in the face. Nicoll smiles back at him. Costa surprises Nicoll with a spinning back elbow, and he follows it with a jump knee and may have hurt Nicoll. The Brazilian strikes out with another flying knee, and instead of continuing to throw hands and feet, he grapples. Costa looks for a standing back take, but ends up getting wrenched off and has to reset. Costa eventually telegraphs a shot, and Nicoll stands him up.
Winding up with everything he has as seconds remain on the clock, the Lobo Gym MMA fighter unleashes a ferocious left hook that smashes square into Nicoll’s liver. Nicoll collapses to his knees, totally defeated, and Costa only needs one single finalizing punch that connects while Tognoni is already intervening.
What a body shot, and what a performance from “Nono” to put himself back to a .500 UFC fighter. Bas Rutten is smiling somewhere after that broken liver showcase.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Stewart Nicoll R2 4:56 via KO (Punch to the Body)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Alessandro Costa, believing he is better than his record and will bust up Stewart Nicoll. He notes Costa's power, leg kicks, and striking accuracy, while Nicoll is hitable on the feet and his takedowns are desperate. Angelo dismisses Costa's last loss due to a freak foot injury and expects Costa to be well-prepared for Nicoll's wrestling.

"I'm going to pick him with confidence and I'm going to see him bust this dude up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. He likes Costa's power, opportunistic jiu-jitsu, and takedown defense. He criticizes Nicoll's wrestling, noting he went 2-for-20 on takedowns against Lucas Rocha, who has no takedown defense. He expects Costa to knock out Nicoll on the feet.

Costa by KO in round 2
"I'll take Costa to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his takedown defense and power. He expects Costa to stuff Nicoll's takedowns and land heavy shots, winning by decision or late TKO.

"I think Costa is the better play. He's the better guy. And when you're looking at the big favorites on this card, he's not minus 2,000 like Yakv. He's not minus 1,200 like McMillan. He's minus 400."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Costa confidently. He emphasizes that Nicoll is too excitable and not technical enough, often making wrong moves and allowing opponents to dictate. Costa's aggression and physicality should overwhelm Nicoll, who has shown a tendency to leapfrog into submissions and get overexcited.

Costa opened -450, now -400; Nicoll opened +350, now +330.
"I don't see anything in Nicoll's game that can technically hold Costa off."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host sees potential value on Nicoll due to Costa's weakness on the ground, but is not confident enough to bet pre-fight. He notes Nicoll's persistent wrestling could exploit Costa's poor ground game, but Costa's power and takedown defense make it risky. He prefers to watch for live betting.

Interesting for live betting.
"So for me, this is a very interesting fight from a live betting point of view. I can't pre-fight bet this one because, you know, based on Nicholls last fight against Rosher, he will likely stroll to get Costa down. …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

James picks Alessandro Costa via TKO in round two, citing Costa's athleticism, striking power, and training with Diego Lopez. He notes Nicoll's limited striking and tendency to be submitted, but warns Costa has poor round threes and has been knocked out twice. He believes Costa's physicality and finishing ability will be enough to get the job done inside the distance, as he has in his other UFC wins.

Round 2 TKO prediction
"Aleandro Costa knockout in round two is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The host believes Costa is the better striker with a nasty calf kick and good enough grappling to neutralize Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's two-fight losing streak and struggles in the UFC. He expects Costa to win inside the distance, possibly via TKO from the calf kick. He is willing to parlay Costa.

Costa inside the distance
"I think Costa wins. I think he actually does enough damage to Nicola, especially with that calf kick and that he works himself to a finish here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa, noting Nicoll's poor wrestling and durability issues. He expects Costa to win, possibly by KO, but warns the moneyline is steep.

"Costa for me, am I going to let Costa minus 400 ruin my week? I don't think so."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa, noting he dropped Erceg and has finishes, while Stewart Nicoll looked incapable of causing harm in his last fight. He believes Costa's explosiveness will lead to a TKO victory.

TKO victory predicted
"I'm going to say that Alessandro Costa puts him away by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Zane picks Costa confidently, noting that Costa is a reliable action fighter who dictates the pace with aggression and physicality. He sees Nicoll as too excitable and not technical enough, prone to making wrong moves and getting overwhelmed. Costa's determination to go forward and toughness should overcome Nicoll's lack of composure.

Costa opened -450, now -400; Nicoll opened +350, now +330.
"I will take Costa as well."
LOSS vs Alden Coria
KO R3 0:47 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 0 12 of 56 21% 14 of 59 1 of 4 25% 2 0 1:24
Alden Coria 0 42 of 95 44% 77 of 131 2 of 2 100% 0 1 3:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 10 of 48 20% 10 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Alden Coria 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alessandro Costa 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 7 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:23
Alden Coria 0 12 of 19 63% 47 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 1 3:15
3 Alessandro Costa 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alden Coria 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 12 of 56 21% 7 of 37 1 of 6 4 of 13 12 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alden Coria 42 of 95 44% 34 of 85 1 of 3 7 of 7 29 of 79 0 of 0 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 10 of 48 20% 5 of 30 1 of 6 4 of 12 10 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alden Coria 20 of 57 35% 14 of 49 0 of 2 6 of 6 20 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alessandro Costa 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alden Coria 12 of 19 63% 11 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 13
3 Alessandro Costa 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alden Coria 10 of 19 52% 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alden Coria vs. Alessandro Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-450); Coria (+350)

Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Coria opens up with a leg kick and Costa answers. coria with an inside leg kick. Costa kicks the body. Coria is switching stances in the early going. A jab lands for the Houston native. A slick 1-2 from Coria tags Costa, who sahkes it off. Coria moves in and out with a jab, then blocks a high kick. Costa finds an opening and alnds an overhand. coria continues to work behind hhis jab. Costa whiffs on an overhand. Coria follows a jab by just missing on a head kick. A counter left connects for Coria, who follows with a leg kick. Costa is winging power punches, and he lands a glancing overhand right. Coria attacks the lead leg of his foe. Costa attacks the body with a kick. Costa catches Coria with a combination. Coria lands a body kick and then a jab. Costa blocks a head kick but it smacks off the forearms. Coria extends a combo and lands multiple punches. Costa looks for a takedown late in the round but Coria keeps his footing. Coria blocks a body kick.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Coria

Round 2
They trade jabs early. They crash into the clinch and Coria takes his man down when Costa jumps into his arms. Coria is inside the Brazilian’s guard. Costa is active from his back, throwing his legs up and looking for submissions. Coria finds an opening and drops a couple heavy elbows. Costa pushes off the fence with his legs and Coria is forced to defend a leg lock. Costa scrambles to his feet and Coria shoves him into the wire. Costa is threatening with a kimura with his back to the fence. Coria lifts Costa and briefly sets him down. Costa rolls and transitions to the back. Moments later he suplexes the newcomer to the mat while maintaining back control, secures a body triangle and looks to find openings for a rear-naked choke. Costa is working on a neck crank now. Coria is able to turn and scramble back into top position, where he drops an elbow with a minute to go. Coria finds room for another elbow, then stands over his opponent before diving back in with punches. Another elbow lands from top position for Coria, who has recovered to finish the round strong.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Coria

Round 3
The broadcast team reveals that Costa struggled to his corner between rounds due to an apparent foot injury. Coria probes with his jab. Coria backs Costa up and lands a right hand. Costa shoots out of desperation and Coria sprawls relatively easily. Costa doesn’t appear to have much left in the tank, and
Coria tees off with a barrage of punches against the fence. Costa slumps to the floor and Coria is able to connect with a few more blows before Miragliotta shoves him away.
An impressive UFC debut for the Fury FC veteran. Costa, meanwhile, seems to indicate that his injured pinkie toe hindered him down the stretch. As it turns out, Costa’s corner was throwing in the towel around the same time Miragliotta was calling off the bout.

The Official Result
Alden Coria def. Alessandro Costa via TKO (Punches) R3 0:47
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa, noting he is a solid striker with good takedown defense and real power, though he can be low volume. He thinks Coria is a busy grappler but may be too slow and hittable. He says the odds at -350 seem wide for a competitive fight, but still goes with Costa.

Odds seem pretty wide at minus 350
"Costa is going to be the pick here. These odds seem pretty wide at minus 350 though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Costa due to his power, BJJ black belt, and level of competition faced. He notes Costa is hittable with a questionable chin but has only lost to top flyweights. He expects Costa to win by any method, possibly submission if the fight goes to the ground, but acknowledges the line is steep at -430.

Potential submission win; line too steep to bet
"I'm going to take Costa to win and I think it could win by any method."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Connor also picks Costa, noting that Coria has some good moments but lacks depth. He mentions that Costa puts immense pressure and Coria is too willing to get cornered. He says Coria's knockout power is questionable against higher-level competition.

"Costa is going to put an immense amount of pressure on him. Yeah, I got to pick costa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is favored due to his leg kicks, BJJ black belt, and power, but the host is skeptical of the big chalky line. Despite this, he expects Costa to put together enough work to win on the scorecards, though not confidently.

skeptical of the big chalky line
"I'm a little bit skeptical of the big chalky line on Costa, but I still expect him to go out there and put together a good enough body of work to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Alessandro Costa, noting his experience against top flyweights like Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg. He describes Costa as explosive, dangerous, and powerful, while dismissing Alden Coria as a short-notice debutant who hasn't beaten anyone of note. He gives Coria only a 1 in 10 chance of an upset.

"I'm going to go with Aleandro Costa. And I agree with the odds having him so much of a favorite because Alden Cora he could pull off an upset here but he is [ __ ] trash."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Zane picks Costa, describing him as a bull who is physically imposing and tough. He notes that Coria is a tit-for-tat striker who lets opponents bring the fight to him, and Costa's pressure will be too much. He mentions that Coria has been outworked before and his style is waiting to be pressure tested.

"I got to pick costa. He's not unbeatable. There's certainly plenty of sloppy mistakes in there and he's been knocked out before even a couple of times. Yeah, and korea can counter punch. Yep but it would have to be …"
WIN vs Kevin Borjas
TKO (punches) R2 1:35 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 1 46 of 86 53% 60 of 104 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Kevin Borjas 0 18 of 56 32% 18 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Kevin Borjas 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alessandro Costa 1 30 of 41 73% 44 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Kevin Borjas 0 3 of 18 16% 3 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 46 of 86 53% 32 of 66 2 of 5 12 of 15 25 of 55 1 of 3 20 of 28
Kevin Borjas 18 of 56 32% 12 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 1 18 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 16 of 45 35% 9 of 33 2 of 4 5 of 8 15 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 1
Kevin Borjas 15 of 38 39% 10 of 31 4 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alessandro Costa 30 of 41 73% 23 of 33 0 of 1 7 of 7 10 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 27
Kevin Borjas 3 of 18 16% 2 of 14 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Alessandro Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-125), Borjas (+105)

Round 1
The UFC is back for its annual trip to Brazil, and it stacked the deck for the home nation by putting one Brazilian combatant against a foreigner in every bout. As a result, betting lines are lopsided towards the locals, with those from Brazil favored in 10 of the 13 fights. As most know, anything can and often does happen in MMA once the cage door closes, so it’s time to buckle up. The first of a baker’s dozen matchups comes in the flyweight division between two South American men that could both use a win. Costa (13-4, 1-2 UFC) has had the misfortune of facing two elite 125ers in his three walks to the Octagon thus far, while Borjas (9-2, 0-1 UFC) ran into the Burmese wall that was Josh Van in his promotional debut. The two will receive oversight from referee Joao Claudio Soares in this curtain jerker, and they get after it following a swift touch of gloves. The two flyweights measure one another early, trying to draw the other out with little more than movement and a pump-fake or two. Borjas paws out a range-finding jab, and Costa suddenly fires back with a one-two and a low kick. Costa surges ahead, stringing together a number of punches that bounce off and through the guard of his opponent. Costa whips a kick low to intercept Borjas coming in at him, and he stalks his man down. The Brazilian swarms forward, and Borjas shifts and rolls to avoid the damage. Costa changes levels for a takedown shot from a wide distance, and “El Gallo Negro” shucks it off before it turns into anything. Borjas paws out a few jabs, and he finds himself in a brief slugfest that gets his jaw jacked. Costa stands back to admire his work, and then blazes ahead to hammer his man with three punches on the side of the head and they crash heads together. A cut has opened up above Borjas’ ear, but he does not acknowledge it and tries to counter the advancing Costa with two flying knees. Costa shrugs them both off and lets his hand fly, and sporadic chants for “uh vai morrer” rain down from the fans. Costa takes the energy of the crowd and rifles off a jab that knocks Borjas off his feet, and he lets Borjas recover so that he can ring his bell with a pair of hooks. Borjas stumbles and gets back to his feet to leap in the air with a knee, and the round ends with Costa returning fire with his own flying knee that slams into the chest. Borjas throws his foe to the floor, and the round ends.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
The two men bump fists to open the round, and Costa gets right back to his advancing attack. Costa lays into his man with punches to the head, and he mixes up one to the body that appears to hurt the Peruvian. Costa sees and opening and unleashes a number of leg kicks that do serious damage and make Borjas limp. Borjas tries to tough it out, but Costa sweeps him off his feet with vicious low kicks. Costa chains a few punches together as Borjas backs himself against the fence, and he knocks Borjas to the ground again with a mighty calf kick. Seeing the finish might be around the corner, “Nono” leaps on top and drops jackhammering fists as Soares takes a close eye on the action. Borjas tries to scramble and nearly gives up his back, and as he turns over, Costa jumps on top of him into full mount.
Costa finishes the job with a long series of hammerfists and punches, and Soares has seen enough and waves off the fight to put Brazil on the board first.
This is an important win for the Brazilian, who evens his UFC record to .500 while also evening his distribution of knockouts to submissions at six apiece.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Kevin Borjas R2 1:35 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo sees this as a 50/50 fight but leans Costa due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Costa's low volume striking and power, but believes Costa's takedowns will be the difference, similar to Borjas' loss to Joshua Van. He explicitly says he's not betting on it because he doesn't trust Costa.

"I am going to pick alisandra kosa to win this fight but only because of the wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady sees Costa as having more ways to win, including power on the feet and a grappling advantage. He notes Costa's BJJ black belt and slick ground game, though it hasn't been shown in the UFC yet. He predicts Costa will get the fight to the mat and secure a submission in the second round.

submission in round 2
"I'll take Costa to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his powerful low kicks, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Borjas is a brawler with poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody expects Costa to land heavy shots and grind out a win.

"Costa for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Daniel Vreeland picks Costa, citing his experience against top competition (Albazi, Erceg), Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and home crowd advantage. He notes that Borjas has volume but less experience at the UFC level. He believes Costa's grappling is a key advantage and even took a small bet on Costa by submission at +550.

Costa by submission +550
"I do think that Costa gets the job done here probably uh and I even took a small shot on Costa by submission here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Borjas had a hot start in his UFC debut but blew his wad too early. He is expected to learn from that mistake and put on power striking pressure against Costa, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I expect him to learn from that mistake this time around and put on the power striking pressure here against alisandra Costa and eventually find The Knockout within two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa, emphasizing his takedown defense and power. He notes Borjas leaves openings and has been taken down easily. Paul expects Costa to land damaging blows and win.

"I got to go with Costa to get the job done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa based on athleticism, speed, power, and strength, especially against the cage. He notes Costa's rough UFC run but highlights competitive rounds against top flyweights like Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. He predicts a TKO in the second round, citing Costa's finishing potential and power advantage over the relatively unknown Kevin Borjas.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with alesandro Costa getting this one done by TKO in the second round"
LOSS vs Steve Erceg
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Erceg 0 74 of 125 59% 104 of 162 1 of 8 12% 1 1 6:29
Alessandro Costa 0 54 of 97 55% 85 of 129 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Erceg 0 31 of 54 57% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:49
Alessandro Costa 0 16 of 36 44% 16 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Steve Erceg 0 24 of 45 53% 37 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:06
Alessandro Costa 0 24 of 42 57% 33 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:49
3 Steve Erceg 0 19 of 26 73% 36 of 48 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:34
Alessandro Costa 0 14 of 19 73% 36 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Erceg 74 of 125 59% 41 of 87 25 of 30 8 of 8 43 of 91 26 of 28 5 of 6
Alessandro Costa 54 of 97 55% 31 of 70 14 of 17 9 of 10 35 of 76 19 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Erceg 31 of 54 57% 18 of 38 6 of 9 7 of 7 26 of 49 3 of 3 2 of 2
Alessandro Costa 16 of 36 44% 6 of 25 4 of 5 6 of 6 16 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Steve Erceg 24 of 45 53% 15 of 35 8 of 9 1 of 1 12 of 30 9 of 11 3 of 4
Alessandro Costa 24 of 42 57% 18 of 34 3 of 5 3 of 3 18 of 35 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Steve Erceg 19 of 26 73% 8 of 14 11 of 12 0 of 0 5 of 12 14 of 14 0 of 0
Alessandro Costa 14 of 19 73% 7 of 11 7 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 5 13 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alessandro Costa vs. Steve Erceg
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-166), Costa (+140)

Round 1
Crashing into the UFC in June with a huge upset win over a ranked David Dvorak, Australia’s Erceg (10-1, 1-0 UFC) hopes his sophomore effort is just as solid as his UFC debut. Looking to halt his momentum will be Costa (13-3, 1-1 UFC), a former Lux Fight League champ who holds eight first-round finishes on his resume. They will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, and the preliminary headliner commences as the two flyweights touch gloves. Erceg takes to the center of the cage, and he slowly works his way forward without throwing much of note. When Costa aims a kick low, Erceg counters with a piston-like right hand. Erceg tosses out a leg kick, and a second kick makes Costa spring into action with a hard right hand. Costa flicks out a jab, and Erceg pushes out one back and kicks the inside and outside of his leg. When Costa kicks back, Erceg has a check ready. Costa’s big right hand bounces off the guard, and he swings two hooks as Erceg bears down on him. Erceg gets backed off, but still connects with a power jab. Costa flails long and connects with part of an overhand right, but Erceg is able to move with it to take some of the sting out of it. Erceg prods out his jab and snaps the head back with a right hand, and Costa kicks him in response. Costa rings Erceg’s bell with an overhand right, and he tries to chain another and is met with a knee up the middle and a right hook. Erceg splits the guard with a one-two, and he puts three together and sways to the side to make Costa hurl punches at nothing but air. Erceg goes between the gloves with an uppercut, and he lines up a huge right hand and busts Costa in the face. Costa attempts to take him down as he is rattled, and Erceg spins him around and climbs straight into full mount. Costa turns to his side, and Erceg snatches up a rear-naked choke. Costa is in huge trouble but manages to gut out the submission, as he turns his body and keeps moving. Erceg tries to trap him with another choke attempt, but Costa explodes to get back to his feet, and he pushes the Aussie to the wire. The round ends with both men attempting inaccurate front kicks.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg

Round 2
To start off the second stanza, the Australian fighter again claims the middle of the Octagon and moves forward, to force Costa to immediately backpedal. Erceg launches a head kick that pounds into the guard, and he shoves Costa and bounces him off the fence. Costa goes for a home run right hand, and Erceg evades it by a matter of millimeters. Costa is a man on a mission, looking for giant strikes, and he connects with numerous huge strikes as Erceg takes them or tries to keep moving. Costa drives a knee up the middle, and Erceg recovers and returns to put pressure on his opponent. Costa winds up with a hefty leg kick, and a subsequent overhand right stings Erceg again. Costa swings with a mighty right hook once more, and he shoots in low for a single to catch Erceg unaware. Erceg defends himself by getting pushed back to the wall, and Costa drags him down and shifts himself to half guard in a hurry. Costa tries to smash his foe with ground-and-pound, but he throws himself off-balance and allows Erceg to sneak out the back door and climb back to his feet, where he pushes Costa into the wall from behind. Erceg lowers himself down to grip hold of a single, and Costa gets away with a fence grab to stay upright. Erceg knees the body a few times while tightly pressed on his adversary, and Costa jumps guard for an armbar out of nowhere. Erceg defends himself smoothly and lets them both stand, but he continues to press his weight on his aggressive opponent. Costa pushes off, and he lets his hands go to knock Erceg back. As Erceg is wobbled, Costa tackles him to the canvas. The Brazilian turns over to pursue an armlock, and Erceg flips him over and grinds him with elbows on the face until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
The flyweights have reached Round 3, and Erceg is quick to resume the trend where he started the first two rounds pushing the pace early. Erceg backs Costa off, threatening knees and level changes, and Costa blocks a jump knee that is aimed at his dome. Erceg pushes him up to the fencing, and he fights off a trip to keep on his feet. Erceg looks to drag his man down, but Costa awkwardly keeps his balance and may have grabbed the cage again. Erceg transitions to a single, and Costa belts him with an elbow to back him off. Costa comes up short with a sweeping low kick, and Erceg jabs him multiple times in the face before timing a clean level change. Costa is on the mat for barely a second before jumping back up, and Erceg squeezes him up against the fencing to control him further. Costa gets off a solid right hand to back off the Aussie, and Erceg gathers his thoughts and pushes him back to the wall. Erceg looks to tie the legs up and trip Costa down, and Costa hits his knees and powers back up without batting an eye. Costa attempts his own far-side trip that does not succeed, and Erceg elbows him and eats two knees in the belly for his effort. Costa turns him around and sells out for a single, and he dumps Erceg down but cannot control him. Erceg is upright before Costa knows it, and he is pushing the Brazilian against the wall to run out the clock. Costa frames off with knees to the body, and Erceg responds in kind. Erceg cannot get his foe down, and he settles for clinch control until the final horn wraps the fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)

The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Alessandro Costa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa as an underdog, citing Costa's solid striking, tight guard, and real power. He notes Erceg is high volume and hittable, but Costa's power and combination striking could be the difference. He is not betting on this fight yet and may flip later.

"I like Costa a lot... I think Costa striking is just good enough to get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by knockout in the third round. He notes Erceg is not on short notice, has a size advantage, and his striking has leveled up. He worries about Costa's durability, as Costa has been knocked out twice before and gets hurt often. Brady believes Erceg's power and improved striking will lead to a finish.

Erceg by knockout in the third round
"I'm gonna actually pick him to knock out Alessandro Costa... give me Erceg to win this fight down the stretch in the third round and knock out Alessandro Costa."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Cody picks Erceg, impressed by his debut on short notice against a ranked opponent. He notes Erceg's durability, scrambling, and ability to push a pace. He thinks Costa's low output and reliance on leg kicks won't be enough, and that Erceg has more dog in him.

"Steve EG he's got the dog in him man he's got the dog in him I'm gonna have to play him this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is the better fighter and the line is close to even, so taking the underdog at +130 is worth a small shot. Costa will be more aggressive and can stay out of danger if Erceg tries to take it to the ground. Expects Costa to control distance in the striking realm, land big shots, and win by decision.

small shot on underdog at +130
"I wouldn't mind taking a small shot on the underdog here and allisandro costra at that plus 130 range"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul leans Costa as a dog, citing his leg kicks and power. He thinks Erceg's tall frame may be vulnerable to leg kicks, and that Costa's takedown defense is solid. He notes the line movement towards Costa and sees value at plus money, though he's not overly confident.

"Costa at plus 170 he'll be he'll be my official pick I may bet him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, citing his impressive debut win over David Dvorak on short notice and strong regional career. He notes that Alessandro Costa was pieced up by Amir Albazi on the feet, which he sees as a bad sign. He predicts a competitive decision win for Erceg, possibly 29-28, but expresses a slight worry that Erceg might get knocked out due to his build.

by decision
"I'm gonna have to go with Steve EG here not just because alesandro Costa's taken this on short notice but because Steve EG is really really good beat David Dvorak in his debut"
WIN vs Jimmy Flick
TKO (elbows) R2 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:14
Jimmy Flick 1 65 of 91 71% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:14
Jimmy Flick 1 54 of 77 70% 54 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Alessandro Costa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Flick 0 11 of 14 78% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 14 of 37 37% 6 of 27 5 of 7 3 of 3 14 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 65 of 91 71% 37 of 58 12 of 15 16 of 18 54 of 76 0 of 0 11 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 14 of 36 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 3 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 54 of 77 70% 27 of 45 12 of 15 15 of 17 53 of 75 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Alessandro Costa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 11 of 14 78% 10 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alessandro Costa vs. Jimmy Flick
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-255), Flick (+215)

Round 1
Capping off the prelims, flyweights of Flick (16-6, 1-1 UFC) and Costa (12-3, 0-1 UFC) square off. “The Brick” has never before landed a knockout, with 88% of his wins coming by tapout, while Costa has never once been submitted. Something might have to give, and referee Keith Peterson is here for it if it does. The fight opens with a no nonsense glove touch, and Flick paws out after with a front kick. Costa slams a leg kick with emphasis on the calf, and Flick tries to get him back with another front kick only to miss. Costa stuffs a takedown after checking a kick, and he pushes Flick away and nails him with another calf kick. Flick jabs with the ball of his foot, and he ducks down low for an overhand right. Costa drills a kick to the body, and he starts chaining body shots together as Flick can do nothing but shell up. Costa pins two punches on Flick’s head before Flick realizes he has been struck, and he circles away while Flick is calculating the damage. Costa aims another left to the body, and Flick kicks low and just buzzes the hair with a high kick to follow. Costa backs Flick off with a one-two, and he absorbs a front kick to the midsection. Costa delivers another kick to the lead wheel, and he doubles up on it. Costa strings three punches together and kicks the calf, and the kick knocks Flick clean off his feet. Flick falls to his back, and Costa kicks at it once more before letting “The Brick” up. Flick stands, and he keeps that left leg back, as it is totally compromised. Costa decides to kick the other leg, and when Flick swaps again, he chops at it once more to nearly topple Flick over. “Nono” smashes Flick’s calf one more time, and Flick dives forward with a takedown. Flick cannot secure it, and he looks for a leglock that Costa shakes off and lets him get up. Flick is unable to plant on his leg, and Costa throws him down to the floor. Costa lines up several punches to the chin when Flick gets back up, and he nails Flick with a flying knee. Flick walks through a low kick to throw punches, and Costa is faster and more accurate. Costa rings Flick’s bell with speedy punches, and Flick’s face turns red as Costa seemingly cannot miss. Costa hammers Flick’s left leg with one last kick, and rips a right to the body as the horn sounds. Flick barely is able to limp back to his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Costa

Round 2
Flick is able to make it out of his corner, and he starts off in southpaw to keep his left leg behind him. Costa does not attack right out of the gate, and he lets Flick kick at him high. Costa times one single low kick, and Flick’s balance is shot and he can barely even lift his foot up.
Flick shoots in after hobbling back to put his arm in the fence to stay up, and Costa bowls him over and starts elbowing him. Flick threatens with some kind of submission, but Costa does not let him set anything up and starts blasting him with elbows. The Brazilian, seeing the finish might be around corner, batters Flick with these nasty elbows until Peterson has seen enough.
Costa strides away, his work done, and he celebrates his first victory inside the Octagon.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Jimmy Flick R2 1:03 via TKO (Elbows)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by late first-round knockout. He is high on Costa, praising his BJJ black belt, grappling, and knockout power. He thinks Costa can dictate where the fight takes place and has good takedown defense. Flick's path is an early submission, but Brady doubts he can submit Costa. He questions Flick's cardio, toughness, and chin, noting Flick has five knockout losses. Brady expects Costa to land a big shot and finish Flick after weathering an early storm.

"I think he gets knocked out here late first round knockout for me for Alessandra Costa."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody is confident in Costa, citing Flick's poor durability and cardio. He notes that Flick has been knocked out in five of his six losses, often early, and that his boxing is poor. Costa showed good takedown defense against Amir Albazi, and Cody thinks he can stuff Flick's takedowns and win on the feet. He also plans to live bet Costa if Flick takes him down early and fails to submit him.

plans to live bet Costa if Flick takes him down early
"I will take Costa but of course with uh anytime you're betting against a Jimmy flick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Connor picks Costa, citing his more functional and modern MMA game compared to Flick's one-dimensional grappling. He notes that Costa is a cleaner puncher and that Flick's success depends entirely on landing a submission. Connor is concerned that Flick's aggression could be neutralized if Costa stays standing, as seen in Flick's loss to Charles Johnson. He acknowledges Costa's downside is matching Flick's aimlessness but believes Costa's power and takedown defense give him the edge.

Costa by decision or TKO; Costa at -252 is 'undeservedly good odds'
"I'll stick with coast. I don't believe in this flick return and I don't like it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Daniel Levi picks Alessandro Costa, citing his BJJ black belt under Diego Lopez and ability to defend submissions. He views Flick as submission-or-bust and believes Costa can handle that threat. He notes Flick's poor durability and that Costa should win if he avoids submissions. He acknowledges the high juice but sees it as a slam dunk.

"I think this is pretty much a slam dunk spot for Costa"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Flick is a high-level BJJ player who is crafty from top position. Costa is a solid striker but his takedown defense and control on the ground are not impressive. Flick's stationary style of Costa should allow takedown opportunities. Even though Costa is a BJJ black belt, Flick's submission threat is real. The plus 210 line offers value. Flick wins by submission.

Flick wins by submission at +210
"I like flick at this number I agree that Costa should be the favorite I just don't know if the line should be this wide so give me Jimmy flick here and I think he might pull off a submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul is hesitant to lay -255 on Costa, given the question marks around him, but he picks Costa because Flick's cardio and durability are major issues. He notes that Flick looked terrible in his return against Charles Johnson and that Costa held his own against Albazi. Paul would not bet the moneyline but expects Costa to win.

"I guess he'll be my pick I just don't know if I can get back to to Jimmy until I see it uh in action"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa over Jimmy Flick, questioning Flick's return after a retirement and a first-round TKO loss to Charles Johnson. He notes Costa's loss to Amir Albazi is no shame, and that Costa has fought good opponents and learned lessons. He predicts Costa will finish Flick by TKO.

"I'm gonna side with Alessandro Costa here over Jimmy flick I don't like why Jimmy flick is coming back"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Zane picks Jimmy Flick despite acknowledging his limited game, which relies heavily on back takes and submissions. He notes that Flick is a consistent finisher and that Costa is 'just a guy' who may not have the foundation to stop Flick's chaos. However, he admits Flick's style is a Hail Mary and that Costa could win if he keeps it standing. Zane is hesitant because Flick's return is uncertain and he was easily handled by Charles Johnson.

Flick by submission; Flick is a big underdog at +218
"I'm going to take flick for finishing potential."
LOSS vs Amir Albazi
KO (punches) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amir Albazi 2 37 of 81 45% 62 of 110 1 of 4 25% 0 0 5:54
Alessandro Costa 0 17 of 71 23% 38 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amir Albazi 0 9 of 32 28% 10 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Alessandro Costa 0 11 of 41 26% 13 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Amir Albazi 1 18 of 29 62% 42 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:24
Alessandro Costa 0 1 of 9 11% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Amir Albazi 1 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Alessandro Costa 0 5 of 21 23% 6 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amir Albazi 37 of 81 45% 23 of 67 10 of 10 4 of 4 23 of 58 0 of 0 14 of 23
Alessandro Costa 17 of 71 23% 6 of 55 6 of 10 5 of 6 16 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amir Albazi 9 of 32 28% 5 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alessandro Costa 11 of 41 26% 3 of 31 4 of 6 4 of 4 11 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amir Albazi 18 of 29 62% 12 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 9 0 of 0 12 of 20
Alessandro Costa 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amir Albazi 10 of 20 50% 6 of 16 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 3
Alessandro Costa 5 of 21 23% 2 of 15 2 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Albazi (-425), Costa (+350)

Round 1
A few weeks ago, rising flyweight Albazi (15-1, 3-0 UFC) expected to take on Brandon Royval in a crucial matchup in the division looking to sort out contenders. Instead, he now greets UFC newcomer Costa (12-2, 0-0 UFC), who made his way to the UFC not for winning on his appearance on this year’s Contender Series but for laying waste to an opponent in 12 seconds in October. Costa may be less renowned than “Raw Dawg” but he is still dangerous. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready for what should be a fast-paced, no-nonsense tilt. The 125ers do not feeling like touching gloves, and instead want to throw leather. Albazi sticks out a few jabs at a range, and Costa replies with one, but neither man finds their range. Albazi feints and fakes by stomping the floor before turning his shoulders to pretend he is throwing, and Costa stomps the floor as well as they try to trigger the other. Costa scores a hard low kick, and Albazi strides forward to double up on his jab. Costa uses his front foot to stomp the mat to fake his blows, and Albazi is not biting. “The Prince” splits the guard with a jab, and Costa fires a single punch back to get some respect. The Brazilian winds up on two power punches, reaching his target at the end of one. Albazi ducks down, takes a punch on the chin, and ducks even lower to pursue a takedown. Costa stops it from succeeding, so Albazi adjusts his effort and hunts for a single to lift his man up. “Nono” says no to the takedown, escaping before it succeeds, and they return to striking range. Costa gets off a one-two as they continue to measure one another from afar, not committing on much and still looking to reach. Albazi shoots in for a double, and he bails on it when Costa stuffs him. Costa tries and fails to make him pay with a one-two, and the jittery Albazi escapes without concern. Albazi springs away from a looping left hand, and he scores a few jabs and follows one with a slapping leg kick. Costa jabs him back, and he comes up short on a one-two. Costa does land on a subsequent one-two, and he jumps at his man with a knee as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
The second round begins with more of the same, as Costa measures with rangy strikes. Once Costa connects with a left, he chains it into a pair of one-twos. Albazi whips a kick to the side, and he charges in with a fierce right hand that removes Costa’s balance completely. Costa collapses to the mat, and “The Prince” leaps on top in an effort to land ground strikes. Costa ties him up and largely shuts that down, with a tight guard and some short offense including a few elbows off his back. Albazi gains a little space to land a couple short punches, working the body and going up to the head as he methodically and strategically connects. Costa grabs both of his foe’s wrists and freezes Albazi, with submission possibilities and a tight grip stopping Albazi from getting off offense. The Brazilian suddenly releases them to hammer Albazi’s dome with sharp elbows. Albazi postures up every so often to land a power strike, while Costa stays busy from beneath. Albazi sits up and slams down a number of long punches, getting full extension and bouncing Costa’s head off the mat. Albazi stands up and starts drilling the midsection with standing-to-ground blows, and he evades the potential triangle setup by pushing the legs aside and smacking Costa with arcing hammerfists. Albazi gets off a few more hammerfists before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Albazi

Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle to start off the last round, and Albazi begins with a step-in front kick right to the sternum. Costa tries to wing punches back at him, and he does manage to land a few to the body, but Albazi largely ushers him to the side as he evades the brunt of them. Albazi connects with another push kick up the middle, and he times an advancing Costa by countering with a double that puts Costa flat on his back. The Brazilian closes up his guard as Albazi stays tightly pressed on his opponent, delivering sporadic ground-and-pound. In a lull in the action, Costa kicks off and explodes back to his feet. “The Prince” swings with an overhand right that connects behind the head, and Costa resets.
Albazi lunges forward to loose a blistering uppercut, and Costa’s legs give way beneath him as he is in big trouble. Albazi pounces not to secure top position, but to finish the job. Battering Costa with brutal ground strikes, he only needs a few for Peterson to end any possible nonsense and call a halt to this fight as Costa appears to have gone out.
Albazi made the most of a rough situation, taking on a tough but unheralded opponent as other foes had withdrawn from facing him.

The Official Result
Amir Albazi def. Alessandro Costa R3 2:13 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Angelo loves Albazi here, expecting him to point strike and work in takedowns for a clear win, potentially a stoppage. He notes Albazi is better everywhere except raw power. He thinks Albazi is good for parlays and expects a dominant performance.

Plans to bet on Albazi minus 3.5 (bet online exclusive) because he doesn't see Albazi giving up a round
"I love albazi here he's definitely going to need to be careful with the raw power of Costa but he should be better literally everywhere outside of raw power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Big Brady picks Albazi, calling him the real deal and a level above Costa. He notes Costa is a good fighter with power and BJJ, but Albazi was scheduled to fight top contenders. He sees no path for Costa to win—not by KO, decision, or submission. He predicts Albazi wins a 30-27 decision.

Albazi wins by decision
"I'll take all bazzi to win by decision I know we went out there and submitted uh Malcolm Gordon... but I'll say Costa you know being a black belt being a very tough guy hangs in there and uh probably …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Cody picks Albazi, emphasizing his superior grappling and submission skills. He notes Albazi's striking is solid and he has good durability. He thinks Costa is in a tough spot on short notice and Albazi will take him down and strangle him. He is not confident in a prop but will play Albazi high.

"I'm definitely going to support all Bosie and of course I'll be playing him higher up this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)

The host bet the over 1.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks Costa is better than Albazi's recent opponents and that the fight will be competitive for at least a round and a half. He even considers an Albazi decision at +225. No clear winner pick.

Over 1.5 rounds at -179, 1.79 units to win 1 unit; also mentioned Albazi by decision +225
"I do think that Costa is is better than the fighters that albazi has been finishing over his last couple fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Paul picks Albazi, noting he has been a freight train, taking guys down and choking them out. He questions Costa's grappling level and thinks Albazi's submission skills are on another level. He mentions Albazi's striking looks good and he is agile. He considers inside the distance props.

inside the distance minus 120 (mentioned as a potential bet)
"amir's been an absolute freight train just running dudes over taking them down choking them out... albazi is the pick I just don't really know how to attack this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi over Alessandro Costa, citing Albazi's dominant performances in the flyweight division, including submissions over Francisco Figueiredo and Malcolm Gordon. He notes Costa is good but is stepping up on short notice, which is too much of an ask. He expects Albazi to find a submission, as he has been training for top opponents like Alex Perez and Brandon Royval.

"I'm going to mirror al-basa"
Cody Durden - Fight History
SCHED vs Alessandro Costa
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alessandro Costa vs. Cody Durden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-265), Durden (+215)

Round 1
It’s here. UFC 329 is upon us, the tentpole event mere weeks after the stunning UFC White House event that defied expectations from a combat sports and production standpoint. Over the course of the night, fans will be treated to a whopping 14 matches of all skill and size, ranging from the elite of the elite to those that will likely get cut when they lose tonight. One such match comes here, in a must-win for Georgia native Durden (18-10-1, 7-8-1 UFC). He faces speedy Brazilian finisher Costa (16-5, 4-3 UFC) who may have a bit more leeway on his tenure here. The two flyweights bump fists with gold-standard referee Jason Herzog serving as the third man in the Octagon, and away we go!
Durden immediately hurries forward to strafe from side to side, offering up a high kick while Costa stands firm in the center of the cage. The Brazilian gets driven back with a sharp one-two, his glorious mullet waving behind him as the punches smack him in the face. They trade low kicks, with Costa keeping a very low stance in anticipation of the wrestling he believes will come his way. Durden tosses out a high kick way out of range, and a front kick is similarly inaccurate as Costa walks him down. Costa steps in and spins with a wheel kick that misses by a matter of inches, and he keeps his guard up to allow Durden’s punches to bounce off his shield. Costa drills Durden in the face with a counter right hand, and Durden knees him on the way out and slaps the lead leg with a kick as well. Costa lets fly another wheel kick, tripping and shaking his head as if to say he was not struck but rather lost his footing for a moment. Costa advances to throw hands, and Durden matadors him out of the way and dings him with an uppercut.
“Nono” strings body shots into a few upstairs, hurting Durden for a second. The American quickly shakes out of it and defends the subsequent assault, forcing Costa to reset. When Costa does that, Durden lashes out with a pair of hooks. Costa loads up on power punches, missing most of them. Meanwhile, Durden’s low kick is getting Costa’s attention. Costa turns on the jets with a minute to go, hurling hooks until he inadvertently clinches up. Durden controls him in the clinch until breaking off, and he shoots for a double-leg takedown. Costa stonewalls him and wings a huge left hand that catches him cleanly on the jaw. Costa follows it with a few more to dislodge Durden’s gumshield, and he replaces it and rushes away as his upper right cheek starts to bleed. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Costa begins aggressively, aiming another one of his wheel kicks to reintroduce himself. Durden steps in and out to score a few blows and get out of the way. Durden pounds the front leg with a kick and snaps out a right hand that stings the Brazilian. Durden motions to the floor to grab Costa’s ankle, only to bail on it and surprise his opponent with a cheeky combination. Just when Durden starts to have more success with his hands, Costa blasts him with a face with a right hand, blocks a head kick and allows Durden to fall to his back. Costa leaps on top, quickly pouncing down to side control. Durden turns, but gives up his back. Costa cinches up a body triangle and smacks him upside the head to bloody up Durden on the other side of his head. Costa wraps up a rear-naked choke grip, going palm-to-palm with a neck crank as he just wrenches on the American rather than seeking out the choke itself.
This pain choke forces Durden to seek a desperate escape plan and turn his head, but this is not in his best interest. In the process, “Custom Made” moves just enough to allow Costa to slip the forearm under the chin. From there, it is only a matter of time. Durden knows his goose is cooked and submits, tapping out a few times before the grip arm is released.
Costa sits up and thanks his opponent for the match, and Durden looks surprised before realizing that Costa is being sporting and respectful, not boastful and arrogant.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Cody Durden R2 2:19 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ thinks Alessandro Costa is a lock to win, likely by finish. He notes Costa's well-rounded skills, including grappling and power, and believes he will stop Durden. He specifically likes Costa by submission at +450, citing Costa's six submission wins, all in the first round. He also mentions Costa inside the distance at +110 and Costa by KO at +110.

Costa inside distance +110; Costa by KO +110; Costa by submission +450; Costa by submission round 1 +10000; Costa round 1 win +300; Costa by decision +300
"I think it's an Alisandro Costa showcase chance. I feel like Cody Deran still got some UFC fights left. But he's passed his finest hour. I do think regardless of how good he looked against Filio, but besides that, I …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ picks Alessandro Costa, believing he should win. He notes Costa is live for a submission as a crafty grappler, but also mentions a decision win is possible.

Costa by submission or decision
"I think Alisandro A Costa should win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ is extremely confident in Alessandro Costa, calling him a lock. He believes Costa's boxing, body work, and ground skills are a nightmare matchup for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to finish Durden, possibly by submission or knockout, and sees it as one-way traffic.

Costa by finish plus 105, Costa by submission plus 450, Costa by KO plus 200
"Aleandro Costa. I think he's a lock on this card. I think Alisandro Costa is going to bust up Cody Duran undefeat."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ picks Costa to win, likely by submission, citing his low center of gravity, physical grappling, and knockout power. He believes Durand will struggle with Costa's striking and wrestling, and that Costa's jiu-jitsu is a threat. AJ notes that Durand's recent win was at bantamweight and that cutting back to flyweight may not serve him well.

Costa by submission at +375; Costa by decision at +250; over 1.5 rounds at -190
"I think Costa's jiu-jitsu is pretty nice. I feel like at some point Costa hurts him. And I think we're looking at a submission for Costa."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa because of his power and ability to knock out a chinny Cody Durden. He notes Costa's striking style with a high guard and patient approach, and that he should knock out Durden early. However, he expresses concern about Costa's cardio and short notice, but still believes Costa should win.

"Costa powerful, dangerous, should knock out a Chinny Cody Deran. That's what should happen. That's probably what happens. I'm going to pick that to happen."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa but is worried about his cardio due to two short-notice fights in six weeks. He notes Costa is dangerous early with power, while Durden is chinny but a dog who pressures forward. He thinks Costa wins early or Durden grinds him out. He is not betting at -300 odds.

Not betting on Costa at -300 due to cardio concerns.
"Costa is going to be the pick, but I'm probably not going to be betting on him at 3 to one."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 2.5 rounds at -125 for 1.25 units. He notes Costa has power and can finish, while Durden has been finished seven times. He expects a violent fight regardless of who wins, with Costa likely finishing or Durden possibly catching Costa, who is chinny. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

Under 2.5 rounds (-125, 1.25 units); mentions Costa KO or club and sub, Durden finish possible
"I like the under two and a half rounds here. I'm not going to go crazy on it's a it's a flyweight fight at the end of the day, but, you know, Costa is a violent fighter whether he wins …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Cody picks Cody Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling, durability, and constant activity. He notes Costa's cardio issues and short notice. He believes Durden can win rounds early and possibly hold on.

"I think I'm testing Cody Deran. He is a winner at life and hopefully winner in the cage come Saturday."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Jacob picks Cody Durden because he's done betting against him, noting Durden always shows up and has dog in him. He believes Durden will get early takedowns, control Costa, and slow him down, potentially finding a finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges the risk if Durden can't get takedowns and gets chinned.

"I'm done [ __ ] betting against Cody Duran. Like every time you bet against Cody Deran like against last week against Joffrey Felo like he he just comes in and shows up and he's the one that's not on …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Lucrative James picks Alessandro Costa via KO, citing Costa's power and Durden's history of being hurt. He notes Durden's toughness and cardio but believes Costa can finish early. He admits he doesn't trust Costa at -250 and won't bet it, but predicts a knockout win.

Alessandro Costa by KO
"Alessandro via KO is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The host acknowledges that many overlooked Durden previously but now respects his pace and pressure. He expects Durden to push a high pace and pressure that Costa may not keep up with, leading to a close decision victory, provided Durden's durability holds against Costa's BJJ.

"I expect Durden to really put a pace and pressure on Costa and pull out a very close decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Alessandro Costa but is hesitant, acknowledging Durden's strong first rounds. He expects Costa to wear Durden down as the fight goes on. He prefers to bet Costa live after round one.

Bet Costa live after round one
"I will pick Aleandro Costa to wear him down as the fight goes on, but Duran probably gets takedowns and probably has some success early."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa to win by body shot TKO in the second round. He notes Costa has two finishes in a row by body shots and that Cody Durden is weak to the body. He also mentions that Costa is a short, stocky, powerful fighter who is hard to grapple, but sometimes takes a while to get going.

body shot TKO in second round; Costa should be a slight favorite, not a big underdog
"I've got Aleandro Costa here. I think he's going to beat Cody Deran with body shots. I'm going for a crafty body shot TKO pick up against the cage, the classic."
CANCEL vs Ode' Osbourne
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2026 (12 days before fight)

AJ picks Alessandro Costa to win by submission, noting Costa's knockout power and submission threat. He believes Costa's low stance and power make him hard to takedown, and that Cody Durden will struggle with Costa's boxing and grappling. He expects Costa to hurt Durden on the feet and potentially submit him.

submission, club and sub
"I'm picking Alisandro Costa to win. ... I'll even go as far as to say submission."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)

This fight was removed from the card. Big Brady mentions it was replaced by Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden. No pick is made for the original matchup.

"We lost OD Osborne versus Cody Deran, which I was really upset about because I thought that fight was going to be fun."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel Levi picks his personal friend Cody Durden to win, citing Durden's high pace and ability to outwork opponents. He acknowledges Costa's power but believes Durden can avoid getting caught and mix in wrestling to secure a decision. Levi notes Durden's recent reinvigorated performance against Jafel Filho.

"I'm going to pick Duran to come out here and get his arm raised and start a new win streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The host believes Cody Durden's pace, pressure, and cardio will overwhelm Alessandro Costa, who is on short notice. He notes Durden's durability is a concern but expects him to outwork Costa in striking and scrambles, leading to a decision win.

Cody Durden by decision
"I'm going to go dirt in here to pull off the upset to start off the card and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
WIN vs Jafel Filho
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jafel Filho 0 23 of 63 36% 50 of 93 2 of 3 66% 0 1 3:08
Cody Durden 0 34 of 72 47% 91 of 136 5 of 5 100% 1 0 5:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jafel Filho 0 3 of 12 25% 9 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:00
Cody Durden 0 11 of 23 47% 36 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:20
2 Jafel Filho 0 8 of 28 28% 17 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Cody Durden 0 15 of 34 44% 21 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:37
3 Jafel Filho 0 12 of 23 52% 24 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Cody Durden 0 8 of 15 53% 34 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jafel Filho 23 of 63 36% 10 of 44 7 of 13 6 of 6 16 of 54 7 of 9 0 of 0
Cody Durden 34 of 72 47% 21 of 54 4 of 6 9 of 12 24 of 61 3 of 4 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jafel Filho 3 of 12 25% 1 of 7 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 11 of 23 47% 8 of 18 2 of 3 1 of 2 3 of 14 2 of 3 6 of 6
2 Jafel Filho 8 of 28 28% 2 of 19 2 of 5 4 of 4 7 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cody Durden 15 of 34 44% 6 of 24 1 of 2 8 of 8 14 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jafel Filho 12 of 23 52% 7 of 18 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 17 6 of 6 0 of 0
Cody Durden 8 of 15 53% 7 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 2 7 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Jafel Filho
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Filho (-600); Durden (+450)

Round 1
A late replacement up a weight class, Durden (17-10-1, 6-8-1 UFC) hopes that he can snap a four-fight skid and exorcise his demons against “Pastor” Filho (17-4, 3-2 UFC). The Brazilian celebrates all but one of his pro wins by stoppage, so the Georgia native will need to be on his best behavior for the next 15 minutes or less. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things official as the two men up at bantamweight throw down. They elect to bump clap hands first.
Despite their seemingly intense beginning, no one throws a strike anywhere close to their intended target for nearly 30 seconds. Filho lazily pushes out a front kick, allowing Durden to respond with an overhand right. Durden rushes forward to tackle Filho to the mat, surprising the Brazilian and forcing him to respond with submission attempts. Durden defends the setups, but in the process, he is turned around with Filho pursuing his own level change. Both men get in a 50-50 position with their arms hooked, but it is Filho who is the quicker man as he stands up and wraps his right arm around Durden’s chest like a malicious seat belt.
Filho also slips his legs around Durden’s to try to disrupt his base, and like a python slowly swallowing a goat, he inch-by-inch separates Durden from his balance to put him down. Filho tries to set something up on top, but the frantic Durden bursts out of the position to get back upright. Filho is quick to chase after him with punch combinations, his front kick at the end of one scoring well. Filho changes stances to time a check of a kick he sees coming, and Durden marches him down and slings him to the mat with a trip. When Durden sits up to drop down strikes, Filho off his back looks for a kneebar. Durden turns out of it to take Filho’s back when they stand, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
Durden races out of his corner swinging, hurling big punches while Filho makes a funny face and slides to the side. Durden walks through a thudding calf kick to further crowd the Brazilian, and his subsequent kick is caught. Filho does not take advantage of this, instead lobbing a right left hand upstairs. Durden fires back with his own hook, and his low kick makes Filho recoil it to the side to take some of the sting out of it. Durden keeps pressuring his foe, and his inside leg kick scores a few more times. Filho tries for a step-in knee, and he gets his jaw jacked with a right hand. Durden catches him with a right hand and trips Filho up. Filho hits his back and offers up an upkick, using the moment of impact to explode back to his feet. Durden nonetheless tackles him to the ground, pulling Filho away from the cage as Filho grabs it, and he backs off to find another angle in.
Durden winds up an axe kick, smashing his heel directly into Filho’s cup. He tries to keep attacking, but Herzog remarks that he just kicked him square in the groin and that he needs to back off. After a short recovery time, Filho is good to go, and he starts to apply pressure. He dings Durden with a right hand as he crowds him to initiate in a clinch and possible body lock to throw, but Durden sees it coming and pushes him back. Filho parries a big right hand, but the second from Durden gets through. Filho plods forward, chasing after the American throwing big hands. Durden is elusive enough to evade the worst of what comes his way, only for Filho to grab hold of him and throw him down like too many bags of groceries, because who needs three trips to the car when you can bring them all in with one overloaded trip, as cans and bottles fall out of the bags while one rips, and you bang into furniture and hope you brought it all inside. Check the eggs before putting them in the fridge first. Filho attacks mightily on top, forcing Durden to turn over so he can hunt for a choke. Before he gets it, the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Filho

Round 3
There is a half-hearted hug between the two athletes, and Filho is energized coming out of his corner but does not go wild. Instead, Durden methodically works his way in, using his overhand right to close the distance. Filho ducks in to tie the Georgia native up, and after he tries to manipulate the action, he slashes out with an elbow and a heavy right. Durden breaks off and hunts for a front choke, letting it go to pursue a takedown, ultimate tripping Filho but not getting him down. Both men pop back up, some damage showing under Filho’s right eye, and Durden completes a trip and throw to put the Brazilian on the mat.
Durden looks for an off-angle choke in hopes of otherwise controlling Filho, and the Brazilian’s first roll to escape fails. Filho escapes the grappling exchange but appears totally wiped, slowly trying to stand up. Durden targets a soccer kick square in the ribs, and “Pastor” topples to his back. Durden leaps down to half guard, where he changing his position to take the back. With a single hook in, Durden grabs hold of a neck crank and turns Filho’s head to the left. Filho grits it out but is stuck, with Durden screaming at him or anyone listening while he clubs Filho on the sides of the head. The odd match ends with Durden pumped up and yelling. It may all come down to the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)

The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Jafel Filho via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho over Cody Durden. He highlights Durden's struggles with grappling and submission defense, noting he has been submitted five times. He is impressed by Filho's performance against Clayton Carpenter, where he got a first-round Kimura. He predicts Filho will take Durden down and submit him in the first round.

Filho wins by first round submission
"I think Jafer Filho is going to take him down and and probably going to sub him in the very first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jafel Filho

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Filho easily. He notes that Durden is on a terrible losing streak, has been finished repeatedly, and his only recent win is over a retired fighter. Connor also points out that Filho is a strong wrestler and submission artist, and that Durden's short notice makes the line even more justified.

Filho opened at -400, now -650; Durden opened at +330, now +475. Connor thinks the line is sensible.
"i gotta say too like a that feels too wide but b also up at phantom weight like i really don't durden is not yeah it's not a strong flyweight uh filio is a strong has been a strong flyweight …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Cody Durden

The host thinks the odds are very wide and that Durden can cause Filho problems due to his scrambly wrestling and Filho's weakness off his back. However, Durden's terrible cardio is a major risk. He says it's an IQ test: impossible to bet Filho, so if you must bet, take Durden. He prefers live betting and will bet Durden +3.5 and over 1.5 rounds.

Durden +3.5 rounds; over 1.5 rounds; prefers live betting
"It's clearly dog or pass. And it's not really up for debate."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

James picks Filho, expecting him to exploit Durden's grappling weakness with a submission win. He notes Filho's elite jiu-jitsu and early strength, predicting a first-round submission.

submission in round one
"I'll take Jafal Filo to win via submission in this one. ... I would expect that Jafel Filo gets a submission in round one here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jafel Filho

Zane picks Filho confidently, noting that Durden has lost four in a row and six of his last seven, and is getting crushed in most losses. He points out that Durden's confidence is gone after being knocked out, and that Filho is a strong submission artist with good top control. Zane also mentions that Filho is moving up from flyweight, which should make him even stronger.

Filho opened at -400, now -650; Durden opened at +330, now +475. Zane thinks the line is appropriate given Durden's short notice.
"you just got to pick filio like this version of durden against a athletically competent submission artist uh-huh i ain't picking cody he's not a bad wrestler like yeah that too yeah you know it's not like filio in fact …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Durden 0 8 of 21 38% 54 of 69 3 of 8 37% 0 3 4:50
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 25 of 42 59% 43 of 60 4 of 4 100% 1 2 6:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Durden 0 4 of 8 50% 21 of 25 3 of 6 50% 0 0 1:51
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 9 of 13 69% 15 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:37
2 Cody Durden 0 4 of 11 36% 8 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:37
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 12 of 22 54% 20 of 30 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:51
3 Cody Durden 0 0 of 2 0% 25 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 2 2:22
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 4 of 7 57% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 2 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Durden 8 of 21 38% 5 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 3 7 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 2
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 25 of 42 59% 20 of 34 1 of 3 4 of 5 7 of 19 1 of 1 17 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Durden 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 1
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 9 of 13 69% 5 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 5
2 Cody Durden 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 12 of 22 54% 11 of 20 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 10
3 Cody Durden 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 4 of 7 57% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tumendemberel (-148), Durden (+124)

Round 1
What should be a grappler’s delight will treat fans as flyweights Durden (17-9-1, 6-7-1 UFC) and Tumendemberel (9-1, 0-1 UFC) ply their trade against one another. The former has dropped three straight, while the latter’s “Art of Knockout” nickname may be a little off-kilter as the Mongolian celebrates most of his victories via tapout. Regardless of funky, multi-syllabic, the two will meet under the auspices of referee Jason Herzog, and they race towards one another without a touch of gloves to get things started.
Durden peels back right before crashing into his opponent, and they offer low kicks at one another before Durden shoots for a double-leg entry. Tumendemberel defends by jumping guard with a guillotine choke, and both fighters are fresh and dry as a bone. Tumendemberel adjusts his grip to grab hold from a different angle, hanging the choke higher up but not locking it down entirely. Durden slithers his neck out of danger and looks to get off some ground strikes, and it takes mere seconds before Tumendemberel scrambles. Tumendemberel is able to stand, and Durden takes his back from one side and has his gloves grabbed while doing so. Herzog warns the Mongolian of the foul, and Tumendemberel leans to put Durden against the cage behind him to take the weight off his back. Tumendemberel shakes his foe off, and the two reset. Both land a single leg kick before Durden shoots, and once more Tumendemberel attacks a guillotine.
Durden twists all the way around to free his neck far easier this time, and he forces them to stand so he can take Tumendemberel down in a way he wishes. The house lights flicker on and off during the match, and Durden looks to Herzog confused while also stifling a takedown shot. Durden knees a bent-over Tumendemberel in the face, and Tumendemberel lifts him off the ground and slams him down on his back. Durden hits the ground and sets up an armbar, snatching hold of Tumendemberel’s right limb but failing to grip it fully. Tumendemberel wriggles out and retreats, and Durden pops back up. Tumendemberel swings for a big right hand, and Durden shoots for a counter takedown. Tumendemberel flips Durden to his back and elbows him in the face a few times, but Durden is still pressing for the takedown. When Durden flips his foe over, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel

Round 2
Herzog issues Tumendemberel a stern warning to not strike Durden in the back of the head between rounds, and Tumendemberel acknowledges this. They start off the second round with Tumendemberel whipping low kicks, and his long punches keep Durden from recklessly shooting…for a time. Durden does go after a takedown, and he gets tossed to his back and attacks a leglock. Tumendemberel sits down to take the danger out of the ankle/heel lock, and he drills Durden in the side of the head until he legs it go. Tumendemberel grabs hold of Durden’s back and assumes a body triangle, and Durden still looks to turn and break out of it. Durden manages to put Tumendemberel on his back despite a brief body lock, and the Mongolian is once more warned for hooking his fingers inside of Durden’s gloves. The ensuing scramble results in Tumendemberel flipping Durden over, where he holds on with a guillotine choke from his back.
This allows a potential Von Preux submission, but Durden smiles when it is applied and his smiles disappears when he gets belted in the face by Tumendemberel’s free right hand. Herzog is on top of these two as there are possible fence grabs, illegal upkicks and other malfeasance going on, and the moment Durden gets up, Tumendemberel hits a clean tackling double to put the American back down. Tumendemberel smothers while in top control grinding his elbow on his foe’s face while Durden motions to Herzog for some intervention. Tumendemberel drills Durden hard in the back of the head, and Herzog calls for him to aim for the ear. Durden gets to his knees and stands, where he rushes after Tumendemberel and nails him with a one-two. When Durden keeps throwing, time expires, and Tumendemberel punches him clearly after the bell. What are rules?

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 3
Durden opens up with a huge right hand, and Tumendemberel counters him by tackling him to the floor. Durden turns the corner to take the back of the Mongolian, who manages to shimmy and slowly buck Durden off of him. Tumendemberel thumps Durden on the chin with a few more elbows, and Durden returns to a knee in hopes of standing. When Durden stands back up, Tumendemberel mat returns him and takes his back to lock up a body triangle. Tumendemberel starts fishing for a rear-naked choke before getting position, and he nails Durden in the back of the head again. Durden slumps over and finds himself in RNC danger, with Tumendemberel’s arm across his face. Durden hand-fights to defend the submission, and he breaks the grip around his face and abdomen to reverse “Art of Knockout.”
Durden drops down a single right hand and positions himself to attack an arm-triangle choke, and he is in half guard with Tumendemberel answering the proverbial telephone to defend the submission. Durden lays flat on top before jumping to the other side, and Tumendemberel rolls to his knees to break out of it. Durden clings to his man from the back, and Tumendemberel bumps and shakes but Durden has his toes hooked in the cage to prevent him from getting rolled off. Durden hangs on for dear life, but he is inch-by-inch sliding off. Tumendemberel finds the moment to free himself and he lashes out with a hard right hand, all while planting Durden flat on his back. Tumendemberel leans his shoulder down to pressure for a possible arm-triangle, and he stands up and finds himself in Hail Mary heel hook danger. Tumendemberel yanks his limb free and the bell sounds, but he decides he is not done fighting and tries to boot Durden in the face with a soccer kick after the bell. Herzog shoulder-checks the Mongolian to his back, but nothing else happens.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (30-27 Tumendemberel)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (29-27 Tumendemberel)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (29-27 Tumendemberel)

The Official Result
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel def. Cody Durden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Angelo says Cody Durden used to be a dog but is now a shell of himself, while Nyamjargal is a powerful striker who can be hit but is durable. He notes that Carlos Hernandez took down Nyamjargal four times but got dropped, and Carlos is more durable than Cody. He picks Nyamjargal to win.

"Unfortunately I'm picking Nam."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Big Brady picks Nyamjargal Tumendemberel over Cody Durden. He acknowledges Durden is likely more skilled but worries about his durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. Durden has been finished five times by submission and two by KO, and his chin appears to be fading. Tumendemberel has good front chokes and opportunistic submissions. Brady predicts Durden will look good early, get hurt, shoot for a takedown, and get submitted in the second round.

Tumendemberel by second round submission
"Give me Nam Jarle two in a barrel to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Cody picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's cardio issues and hittability. He notes that Tumendemberel only needs to land one shot. He expects a late knockout.

"I'll take the Mongolian fire to get the win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cody Durden

Connor picks Durden because he believes Durden's relentless aggression will overwhelm Tumendemberel, who lacks a clean answer for pressure. He notes that Tumendemberel is a dangerous puncher but has been taken down easily in the past. Durden's jab and combination punching should allow him to initiate exchanges effectively.

"I think this is a fight where Durden can press his aggression and two, two and several can, we'll never have a clean answer for it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel Vreeland picks his friend Cody Durden, acknowledging bias but providing reasoning. He believes Durden's experience against higher-level competition will be key, and that Durden will avoid getting caught early. Vreeland notes that Durden's career is on the line and expects him to give a veteran lesson.

"I'm super biased. Duran is my friend, so of course I'm picking Deran. I think he's going to come out here and give this guy a tour of the octagon."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

James picks Cody Durden as an underdog, believing the fight is close to 50/50 and Durden is the value side. He notes Durden's superior competition and skills, but acknowledges his poor chin and tendency to get hurt. James thinks Durden can dominate if he avoids getting knocked out, but admits it's a tough call due to Durden's durability issues.

"I'm going to pick Cody Durham because he's the underdog here. And if you have an underdog, but you're saying the fight's 50/50, automatically that's the value side."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Tumendemberel has shown improved defensive grappling and durability. He can stop Durden's wrestling and threaten with submissions or power shots. Durden's recent losses show his ceiling. The under 2.5 rounds is appealing as both have finishing ability.

under 2.5 rounds
"The spot that I like most in this matchup is the under two and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Paul picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Tumendemberel's durability and power. He expects to bet live after Durden wins the first round.

"Two in Denver all wins late. Uh, is my official pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, despite a personal beef. He believes Durden's grappling and pressure will be too much for Tumendemberel, who lacks experience. He expects Durden to win by decision, noting his toughness and volume.

decision
"I'm going to go with Cody Deren by decision. 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cody Durden

Zane agrees with Durden, though he expresses disdain for Durden's personality. He notes that Tumendemberel's ideas stop at one punch and that Durden can deal with that. He acknowledges the possibility of Tumendemberel landing a big shot or a submission, but thinks Durden's pressure will be too much.

"Yeah, I agree. Durden is the pick."
Submission R2 3:13 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Allan Nascimento 0 52 of 115 45% 52 of 115 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:21
Cody Durden 0 57 of 128 44% 57 of 128 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Allan Nascimento 0 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
2 Allan Nascimento 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:21
Cody Durden 0 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Allan Nascimento 52 of 115 45% 19 of 69 7 of 17 26 of 29 51 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 57 of 128 44% 47 of 112 5 of 9 5 of 7 57 of 128 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Allan Nascimento 26 of 58 44% 7 of 31 3 of 9 16 of 18 25 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 36 of 73 49% 28 of 61 5 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Allan Nascimento 26 of 57 45% 12 of 38 4 of 8 10 of 11 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 21 of 55 38% 19 of 51 0 of 1 2 of 3 21 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-260); Durden (+210)

Round 1
Due to Durden (17-8-1, 6-6-1 UFC) stepping in to replace Rafael Estevam on short notice, he has agreed to face “Puro Osso” Nascimento (21-6, 3-1 UFC) at a catchweight of 130 pounds. This wrestler vs. grappler affair will be officiated by referee Mark Smith, who claps the athletes in as they touch gloves to signal their relief in being able to fight and get paid this weekend.
Durden bounces up and down on his heels, possibly presenting looks for takedowns, but then springs forward and drills the Brazilian with an overhand right. Durden pops Nascimento with a jab, and he smacks the front leg with his shin. Durden evades a kick and hurls an overhand right, and he pushes out a front kick that is caught and forces him to the mat. Durden lets him back up and puts a jab right in the Brazilian’s face. Nascimento hammers the lead calf with a kick, and a second puts Durden on notice. Durden races ahead throwing punches, and Nascimento slips to the side and beats him with another thudding kick. He scores one more when Durden comes his direction, and Durden still crashes the pocket and checks Nascimento’s chin with a left hand on the cheek. The jabs from Durden are marking up Nascimento’s cheek, and he is not far from splitting it open with sheer volume.
Nascimento keeps his back to the cage and tosses out kicks, and he sharply counters Durden with a right hand and plants one more calf kick for good measure. Durden punches through the guar to reach the taller Brazilian, and he catches him with a right hook and makes Nascimento double over. Nascimento reels and backs away, and Durden knocks him back to the wall with an overhand right. Nascimento goes back after his leg kick, and Durden punches him in the guts to back him away again. Nascimento checks a kick and lets his hands go, and his head kick does reach the top of the head. Durden kicks and shoots for a takedown, and Nascimento stands him up and skirts away from the offense he anticipates. Durden still marches him down, his leg lump and welted from the kicks, so that he can put his hands on Nascimento’s jaw. They trash one another with heavy leg kicks, and Nascimento stings Durden and forces him to shoot on him. Nascimento stands back to let it fly by him, and the horn sounds to end what became a close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
Durden starts out the round as aggressive as ever, and he scores on the Brazilian early. Nascimento slows him down with a steady diet of calf kicks, and his right hands continue to find their home while Durden rushes after him. They clash shins when kicking at the same time, and then bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Nascimento backs off, with Smith telling them to be careful, and he rushes in behind a knee. Durden shakes it off and responds with a plethora of punches, only slowing when Nascimento tries to introduce his shin to the Georgia native’s chin. Nascimento whiffs on a looping left hand, and he has a leg kick checked. Nascimento stands Durden up with a right hand, and he gets his head snapped back in the counter. Nascimento pounds on the front leg, and he eats three punches down the middle like they are nothing. Durden gets clipped with a left hand, constantly pressing forward even when under fire. Nascimento rattles him with a long one-two, wrapping his hand around the back of the neck but not using it for a takedown.
Both met let their hands go, and Nascimento puts Durden down with a counter right hand.
Durden ducks to shoot, and he finds himself immediate ensnared in an anaconda choke. Nascimento has the submission virtually completed the moment Durden hits his knees, in what may be the worst choice that “Custom Made” could have made. Durden turns to his back, but there is no way out, so he has to give up.
Durden taps until Smith intervenes, and Nascimento has now recorded 15 submissions in his 22 pro wins. He asks for a ranked opponent, specifically calling out Steve Erceg for his next outing.

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Cody Durden R2 3:13 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Angelo picks Allan Nascimento, but is hesitant. He notes Nascimento's jiu-jitsu is excellent but his takedowns are poor, so he relies on being taken down to sweep. He thinks Cody Durden's wrestling and cardio have declined, and he gets tired. However, he worries that if Durden doesn't wrestle, Nascimento won't finish on the feet, leading to a low-scoring fight. He may avoid it in DFS.

"I think Alan wins this fight. I think Alan could potentially finish this new version of Cody Durden, but I'm... probably going to avoid it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Big Brady picks Allan Nascimento, noting Cody Durden is on short notice, 34 years old, and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He highlights Nascimento's size, length, and excellent grappling. He believes once the fight hits the ground, Nascimento will have a huge advantage and predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission, minus 300 favorite
"I like Nasnto here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Connor also picks Nascimento, noting that Durden is super vulnerable on defense and aggressive to a fault. He thinks Nascimento's submission game is dangerous enough to catch Durden, but he wouldn't be surprised if Durden rides out a win on top. He mentions Durden's bigger signature wins but still leans Nascimento.

"I think I'll take Nascimento and one thing I do know about him is that he's durable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Nascimento's BJJ will get Durden into bad spots and he will eventually pull off a submission. The host's favorite spot is the under 2.5 rounds at even money.

under 2.5 rounds at even money
"His BJJ should help him get Duran into some bad spots and from there I expect Nasameto to eventually pull off a submission. Although my favorite spot in this fight would probably be the under two and a half at …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Allan Nascimento, noting his size advantage at catchweight and superior grappling. He compares Nascimento's dominant grappling against Jafel Filho to Cody Durden's struggles against Jake Hadley. He worries about Durden taking the fight on short notice and predicts Nascimento wins by decision or submission in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round
"I'm going to say that Allan Nascimento gets this one done. Another thing to mention here as well, Allan Nascimento out-grappled Jafel Filho round after round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Zane picks Nascimento to catch a submission, noting that Durden sells out so hard on offense that he makes himself vulnerable to submissions. He acknowledges that if Nascimento doesn't submit him, Durden could grind out a win. He mentions Nascimento's durability and solid submission game.

submission
"I'm thinking to take Nascimento to catch sub but like you know if he doesn't this could be a very scrappy hard fought fight."
LOSS vs Jose Ochoa
KO R2 0:11 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Durden 0 9 of 41 21% 12 of 47 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:42
Jose Ochoa 1 30 of 79 37% 52 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Durden 0 9 of 39 23% 12 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:42
Jose Ochoa 0 25 of 73 34% 47 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Cody Durden 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Durden 9 of 41 21% 6 of 34 1 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 37 0 of 1 1 of 3
Jose Ochoa 30 of 79 37% 18 of 42 7 of 28 5 of 9 24 of 71 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Durden 9 of 39 23% 6 of 32 1 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 35 0 of 1 1 of 3
Jose Ochoa 25 of 73 34% 13 of 36 7 of 28 5 of 9 22 of 68 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Cody Durden 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ochoa (-180), Durden (+150)

Round 1
Trying to break out of a bit of a rough patch, having lost three of four, Durden (17-7-1, 6-5-1 UFC) needs a win bad and wants it even more because this match takes place at home. A product of American Top Team Atlanta, he will welcome wild-swinging Ochoa (7-1, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC) to the ATL. When the dust settles between these two flyweights, one will return to the win column—barring something unexpected. Referee Kevin MacDonald will be on top of the action. The two combatants bump fists, and Ochoa comes out erratically with bouncing, jittery movement and kicks. Ochoa stabs the body with his toes extended, and he does this two more times before Durden comes back at him with a left hand. Ochoa continues working the body with the same move, and he spins with an elbow on the counter try from Durden. Durden shakes it off and is ready to trade, but it is Ochoa who lands in bunches. Ochoa’s movement allows him to avoid the worst that Durden tosses at him, while keeping a solid range with his legs outstretched constantly. Durden latches onto Ochoa’s right leg in pursuit of a single, wrangling the younger man to the mat and lacing his hooks around them for a moment. Durden slithers to the side in an attempt to take the back, but Ochoa knows this is coming and turns himself around while standing up. Durden knees his way out of the clinch, and Ochoa thanks him for this by kicking him in the fast-reddening lead leg. Ochoa slips a punch to connect with three, with Durden’s chin holding up but taking damage early. Ochoa tags the Georgian with a fast combination, and he grabs hold of a guillotine when Durden shoots and knees him to break up the shot. Ochoa goes to the body with a left, and he spams two head kick from the same leg and chains punches and another kick behind it. Durden tries to bully him back, only to absorbs an elbow and a mean left hand. Ochoa is a meat grinder, marching Durden down and putting him through his paces. Durden takes several more blows on the chin, and in response he unloads a right hand from the depths that stuns Ochoa to his core. This allows Durden to easily change levels and take Ochoa down, but Ochoa hits his back and starts firing off upkicks aplenty. Durden lowers himself down through the flailing legs, dropping down a few standing-and-ground punches. As soon as Ochoa locks up a triangle choke, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa

Round 2
The second round kicks off with Durden grinning like a banshee. As he moves to the center of the cage, Ochoa meets him there. Durden reaches out with a right hand to initiate an exchange, and the younger fighter dips back and clubs him with an uppercut that shakes the Covington, Georgia, native up badly. As Durden wobbles back to put the fence behind him, Ochoa just misses with a flying switch kick aimed at his mug.
The moment he plants his feet, Ochoa dodges a left hook and unloads a blistering short left hand that jacks Durden in the jaw and sends him careening to the floor. While MacDonald is sprinting to the fighters to wave things off, Ochoa hammers the local with two or three more fierce right hands.
MacDonald gets in to stop the fight, and Durden’s eyes are wide and rolling around in his noggin. Ochoa walks off and celebrates, while Durden looks around confusedly and briefly protests but needs to be helped back to his feet, further justifying the stoppage. Ochoa earns his first UFC victory in big way, putting down a gritty grappler like Durden in the latter’s home territory.

The Official Result
Jose Ochoa def. Cody Durden R2 0:11 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Angelo leans Cody Durden because he is battle-tested and relentless with takedowns. He notes that Jose has good takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler as determined as Cody. He acknowledges Cody's suspect chin but believes his pressure will be key.

"I'm probably going to lean Cody here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jose Ochoa

Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa by second-round submission. He likes Ochoa's striking and sneaky submission game, and notes that Cody Durden has been taking damage and has four submission losses. He believes Ochoa is dangerous everywhere and will either knock out Durden or snatch a submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to say OOA wins this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Ochoa

Connor picks Ochoa but is hesitant. He thinks Ochoa is a special prospect with solid kickboxing and clever positioning, but worries that Durden's relentless pressure and wrestling could expose Ochoa's defensive flaws. Connor notes that Ochoa's style is similar to Adesanya's, which can be exploited by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that if Ochoa loses, it won't be a damning indictment.

"I'm going to pick Ochoa here. I really do think he's pretty special."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jose Ochoa

Ochoa's superior striking and aggressive BJJ will overwhelm Durden. He will eventually secure a submission and force the tap.

submission
"Look for him to utilize his superior striking... it's a very good and active aggressive BJJ shoulder look to get this fight to the ground... slaps on a submission and forces the tap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Ochoa

The Guru picks Jose Ochoa, impressed by his performance against Lone'er Kavanagh where he showed finishing ability and hurt him to the body. He notes Ochoa is a 'nasty finisher' with submission skills, and expects a finish in the first two rounds, possibly by body shot or submission after hurting Durden.

Jose Ochoa by finish in the first two rounds
"Joseé Ooa is really good and I'm going to take him to win and it's [ __ ] am I going to take him to like dude he looked really good against Lona Kavanaaugh and he should not have looked …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Ochoa

Zane also picks Ochoa but with hesitation. He compares Ochoa to Bruno Silva, who beat Durden by waiting for an opening. Zane thinks Ochoa's smoother movement and evasiveness could allow him to counter Durden effectively. However, he notes that Durden is a tough, experienced wrestler who could make it difficult. Zane says Durden might be a smarter pick given the odds.

"I think I'll take Ochoa as well."
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joshua Van 0 70 of 217 32% 74 of 223 2 of 8 25% 0 0 3:14
Cody Durden 0 165 of 304 54% 184 of 323 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joshua Van 0 14 of 33 42% 18 of 38 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:14
Cody Durden 0 30 of 49 61% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joshua Van 0 27 of 99 27% 27 of 100 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 72 of 136 52% 73 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Joshua Van 0 29 of 85 34% 29 of 85 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 63 of 119 52% 65 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joshua Van 70 of 217 32% 60 of 203 6 of 8 4 of 6 70 of 217 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 165 of 304 54% 131 of 262 22 of 27 12 of 15 144 of 279 19 of 22 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joshua Van 14 of 33 42% 13 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 1 14 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 30 of 49 61% 24 of 39 2 of 4 4 of 6 15 of 32 13 of 15 2 of 2
2 Joshua Van 27 of 99 27% 22 of 93 4 of 5 1 of 1 27 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 72 of 136 52% 57 of 119 14 of 15 1 of 2 71 of 134 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Joshua Van 29 of 85 34% 25 of 80 1 of 1 3 of 4 29 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 63 of 119 52% 50 of 104 6 of 8 7 of 7 58 of 113 5 of 5 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-155), Durden (+130)

Round 1
Speed is the name of the game in this flyweight affair, as skilled grappler Durden (17-6-1, 6-4-1 UFC) will try to ply his trade against offense-first Houstonian by way of Myanmar Van (11-2, 4-1 UFC). The two 125ers looking to climb the ranks share similar stoppage rates of 71% and 73%, respectively, which is rare at this division and something referee Chris Tognoni should keep in mind when officiating this contest. Fists are bumped, and they come into close range to trade. Durden lands a low kick and comes up short on a one-two. Van connects with a hard low kick, and Durden fires back with a surprisingly effective high kick and a punch salvo. Durden punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and he gets elbows in the side of the head when trying. Durden drops all the way down to fish for Van’s ankle, and he lifts “The Fearless” up and deposits him to his seat. Van methodically works his way back to his feet with Durden pressuring and leaning on him, and he hacks with a few elbows before Durden drags him back down to the floor. Van strikes with elbows to the side of the dome, and Durden takes a moment to cover as he does not like absorbing them. Van muscles his way up to his feet, but Durden is on him like a cheap suit. Van rips the body with a right hand to break away, and he rushes forward behind his jab. Durden fires off a left hand, and the two trade blows in the pocket. Van pierces the guard with a few jabs and works the body in subsequent strikes, and he snaps the head back with a sharp uppercut. Van gets Durden’s attention, slipping an uppercut to get Durden’s attention. Van slams his shin on the front leg of his foe, and he walks square into an uppercut that Durden is spamming. As Van meanders forward, Durden stops him with a double-leg entry. Van defends with elbows until Durden switches to a single-leg takedown attempt, and Van is able to set his leg down while keeping himself upright. Durden tries to lift Van up in the air, but he settles for grinding out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
The flyweights race out of their corners to re-engage, and engage they do. Both men load up on wild strikes, and Van rocks his opponent with a flurry. Durden fires back, and he keeps Van honest but is not taking him out of the equation. Van shrugs off a head kick to do some damage with punch combos, and he sprawls to stop a takedown and clips Durden with an uppercut. Van chains his punches together, and Durden’s balance is starting to betray him as his knees wobble. Van knocks his man back with an accurate series of punches, and he drills the midsection and is ready to stop a takedown. Durden flops to his back, and Van tells him to get up. Tognoni has him stand up, and they start up throwing fire again. Durden lands, and all Van does is smile and swing back with a vengeance. Durden’s power is starting to slip due to fatigue, while Van is accurate and putting high volume that marks Durden’s face up on the nose and eyebrow. Durden overswings, and he eats a crisp overhand right for his effort. “The Fearless” fearlessly engages in a slugfest, landing first and last in exchanges. Van is not loading up, instead allowing Durden to do that so he can capitalize on the wild, lumbering swings and retaliate sharply. Van stops a takedown in its tracks so he can drive home an uppercut, and he wades away from a spinning back fist and slides in to connect with a right hand. Durden’s inaccurate left hook leads to three punches busting him in the chops. Durden keeps swinging hard, and the telegraphed strikes are either missing entirely or sliding off the target and getting rolled with. Van puts a one-two on the chin, and Durden responds with a left and a big right. Van strings together five punches in rapid succession, leaning back to dodge “Custom Made” and forward to connect cleanly. When Van eats the power strikes, he does not budge, while every other blow seems to draw a reaction out of the slowing Durden. The round ends with the two trading leather.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
A glove touch commences the final frame, and Van is immediately in striking range as he flusters Durden with movement and footwork. Durden fights behind his jab, and he puts some mustard behind a follow-up right hand. Van no-sells the strike and nails Durden with two powerful low kicks, and Durden swipes back at him with left hooks. Van goes high and then to the body and low calf, mixing things up to keep Durden guessing. Durden tries a Superman punch from up close, only fur Van to block it and knock him back a step. One-twos from both sides land on the guard, and Van clubs his foe on the temple and drops Durden to a knee. Durden signals that it was not a big deal, drawing Van into a brawl. Yan’s offense is gradually breaking Durden down, and he connects with a particularly rough left hand that makes Durden fall to his back. Durden is forced to stand back up, and he keeps his right hand covering the eye socket that might have been hurt. Van strings three punches into a knee to the liver, and Durden shells up and launches a huge right hand that goes wide. Van stifles a takedown and misses with a haymaker, only to drift back when Durden spins with a back fist. Van slips and counters his foe, and Durden wobbles but stays on his feet. A jab from Van makes Durden frown, but it does not slow him down as he hurls huge hooks anywhere he can aim them. Van walks him down and connects cleanly, knocking Durden’s mouthpiece out. Tognoni calls time during a moment to break to replace Durden’s gumshield, and the two resume their torrid brawl. Durden may be leading with his chin, but he is swinging with everything he has. Van hurts him with a few hooks, a knee and a head kick, and Durden is hanging on tight but just taking damage. Durden swings it out until the final bell, putting an end to an exciting striking affair.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Cody Durden via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-26, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden as a dog, citing Durden's relentless pressure wrestling and cardio as key factors. He believes Durden's takedowns will frustrate Joshua Van and deplete his confidence. Angelo notes both fighters are chinny but expects Durden to focus on winning rather than brawling. He is monitoring the line movement and may bet if the odds widen further.

Plus 138 as a dog, might bet plus 3.5 spread if odds widen
"Cody Duran is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Cody picks Van but expects a tough first round. He notes Durden's wrestling and fast starts, but thinks Van's cardio and volume will take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Van after the first round.

"Van for me, but I expect round one to be difficult."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Durden

Connor picks Durden, though he hates to do it. He notes that Durden starts fast and pressures aggressively, which could overwhelm Van, who tends to start slow and build into fights. Connor points out that Van has been taking too much damage recently and is fighting too frequently, which raises concerns about his durability. He also mentions that Durden's pace and wrestling could be a problem for Van, who has shown vulnerability early in fights.

"I think i'm gonna pick durden here. They hate to do it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel admits bias as Durden's friend but provides analysis: he believes Durden's well-rounded attack and ability to exploit Van's uncomfortable ranges will lead to a win. He expects Durden to mix takedowns and striking effectively.

"I think that Cody Duran with a more well-rounded attack."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Joshua Van

Van successfully bounced back from his knockout loss to Charles Johnson by defeating Edgar Chairez. He will take that momentum, showcase improved takedown defense, keep the fight standing, and eventually catch Durden slipping to get a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I believe you'll be able to take that momentum showcase his improved takedown defense keep this fight in The Standing Room and eventually catch dirt and slipping leading to a knockout victory for Joshua van"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Paul picks Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling and fast starts. He notes Van's high fight frequency and potential wear. He thinks Durden can win the first two rounds and hold on, but acknowledges the risk.

"I actually think I will take Durden and hope he wins the first and wins the second."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, citing Van's tendency to get rocked on the feet and Durden's improved hands and grappling. He thinks Durden's size and takedowns will be too much for Van, and that once Durden gets a lead he is hard to catch. He predicts a 29-28 decision based on the first two rounds.

"I'm going to go Cody Duran I'm going to go of Cody Duran over Joshua van"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Durden

Zane also picks Durden, expressing concern for Van's health and development. He notes that Van is inexperienced and makes bad decisions under duress, and that Durden's early pressure and wrestling could exploit that. Zane points out that Van has been in wars recently and is fighting too often, which could lead to him getting knocked out or losing a decision. He believes Durden is a tough out and that Van's ceiling is higher but not yet realized.

"I think i'll pick durden too. I do not like it."
WIN vs Matt Schnell
Submission (ninja choke) R2 0:29 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Durden 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 34 of 78 43% 37 of 81 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Durden 0 40 of 80 50% 40 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 33 of 77 42% 36 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cody Durden 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Durden 40 of 83 48% 32 of 73 3 of 3 5 of 7 38 of 81 2 of 2 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 34 of 78 43% 31 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 0 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Durden 40 of 80 50% 32 of 71 3 of 3 5 of 6 38 of 78 2 of 2 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 33 of 77 42% 30 of 72 3 of 5 0 of 0 33 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cody Durden 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Durden (-335), Schnell (+220)

Round 1
Due to the late nature of this flyweight pairing coming together—Durden (16-6-1, 5-4-1 UFC) will serve as a replacement to Alessandro Costa—the two men next will be fighting up in weight at bantamweight. Both short-notice Durden and Schnell (16-8, 1 NC; 6-6, 1 NC UFC) are hovering around the .500 mark in the promotion, so a win may go a long way while a loss could spell disaster. Referee Chris Tognoni will serve as the Octagon ranger for this contest, and gloves are touched to get things going. Durden moves to the center of the cage and is caught with an early uppercut. Durden backs off and finds another way in, and Schnell clips him twice more in a speedy exchange. Schnell points at him but does not capitalize on hurting and reddening Durden, instead allowing Durden to walk him down. Durden elects to fight to his disadvantage, brawling wildly and backing Schnell up a big. Durden lands several body shots until Schnell fires back, and Schnell’s attacks are more powerful and result in Durden thinking twice. Durden lands a right and eats two rights back. Durden unleashes a fury of punches, and Schnell shakes him up with furious counters that are heavier and faster. Durden wipes his hands and blinks it out, and he backs away as Schnell kicks him in the ribs. Durden wings a few punches that come up short, and Schnell times an outside leg kick that buckles the knee. Durden catches his man on the end of a left hand, and Schnell fires back with a right. Durden clubs him with a hard right, and Schnell skirts to the side and prepares an uppercut that lands on the nose. Schnell clacks the front leg again, and he allows Durden to overswing so he can counter effectively. Durden still manages to get off his right hand a few times, and Schnell’s head movement and footwork keeps him from absorbing any flush. Schnell snipes his man a few times until Durden pushes out a front kick to slow him down. Schnell ducks a head kick that skims his hair, and the two throw caution to the wind and brawl again. Schnell gets tagged with a left hand on the nose, and he winds up and retorts with a flurry of fists. Durden connects at the end of a right hand that cuts Schnell’s eyebrow, and Schnell bites down on his gumshield and blasts Durden in the face with an overhand right. Durden spins with a wheel kick that brushes past his opponent, and Schnell gathers his thoughts and punches his way into a short combo. They trade left hands, and Schnell lands three while Durden gets off two. The two trade right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
The fighters are ready to pick up right where they left off, and after a few low kicks, Schnell lands a big left hand. After connecting, Schnell shoots in with a telegraphed takedown, and Durden’s eyes go wide and he grins as he snatches hold of a guillotine choke. Schnell twists around, and Durden chains his submission into a ninja choke. When “Danger” keeps turning, he finds himself in even graver danger, as Durden locks the choke down and turns Schnell to his back. As soon as Schnell is on his back, he taps with both hands in a panic as the submission was likely to put his lights out. Durden releases the choke when Tognoni gets between them and goes over to the cage to shout at someone in the audience. His team manages to calm him down, and he celebrates his handiwork with his wife and corner. While Durden gives his post-fight interview, Schnell removes his gloves and places them in the center of the cage to signal his retirement. Instead of looking for a moment on the mic, Schnell departs the cage, overcome with emotion.

The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Matt Schnell R2 0:29 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden (referred to as Alexandre Costa) because he is a solid striker with real power, good takedown defense, and durability, while Matt Schnell has been in too many wars and his chin is failing. He believes Costa will blast Schnell's legs and crack him in the head, leading to a knockout. He notes that Schnell is not dangerous enough to put Costa away.

"Alexandre Costa should win here he should dominate here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by knockout. He notes Durden is stepping in on short notice but looked career-best in his last fight before getting caught. Brady believes Durden's striking will be the difference and that he just needs to land one clean shot. He warns about Schnell's dangerous grappling but thinks Durden will avoid the ground and finish the fight inside the distance.

fight finishes inside the distance
"give me Duran Duran by knockout and it should be a fight that that finishes inside the distance"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Cody picks Schnell, arguing that Durden's short notice, weight cut issues, and lack of corner are major red flags. He notes Schnell's superior experience and cardio, but admits Durden's power and aggression could end it early. He sees value at +250 but is not highly confident.

"I will take match nil"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel is biased as a friend of Durden, but he believes Durden's power and Schnell's weak chin will be the deciding factor. He acknowledges Schnell is well-rounded and technical, but thinks Durden will eventually land a knockout. He notes that Schnell has been knocked out in recent fights and that Durden is aware of Schnell's chin. Despite the short notice, Daniel is confident Durden will get the win.

"I do think eventually at some point Cody Duran's gonna get his second UFC knockout so uh let's let's [ __ ] go Cody Duran... I will never pick against Cody Duran."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Paul is intrigued by Schnell at +250, noting Durden is taking the fight on a week's notice, moving up to 135 lbs, and may not have a coach. He acknowledges Schnell's chin issues but believes his experience and cardio advantage could pay off if he survives early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and leans Schnell.

"maybe matchell is the PRP pick Underdog some series plus money that actually could come through but you can't be ton confident on confident on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Cody Durden. He calls Schnell the 'chiniest fighter in UFC history' but believes Alexandro Costa is explosive and powerful. He notes Schnell got wobbled by Sumudaerji and predicts Costa will put him away brutally in round one.

round one finish
"alesandro Costa is going to put him away in round one brutally"
Expert Picks (13)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ thinks Alessandro Costa is a lock to win, likely by finish. He notes Costa's well-rounded skills, including grappling and power, and believes he will stop Durden. He specifically likes Costa by submission at +450, citing Costa's six submission wins, all in the first round. He also mentions Costa inside the distance at +110 and Costa by KO at +110.

Costa inside distance +110; Costa by KO +110; Costa by submission +450; Costa by submission round 1 +10000; Costa round 1 win +300; Costa by decision +300
"I think it's an Alisandro Costa showcase chance. I feel like Cody Deran still got some UFC fights left. But he's passed his finest hour. I do think regardless of how good he looked against Filio, but besides that, I just think Costa is a hard matchup."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ is extremely confident in Alessandro Costa, calling him a lock. He believes Costa's boxing, body work, and ground skills are a nightmare matchup for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to finish Durden, possibly by submission or knockout, and sees it as one-way traffic.

Costa by finish plus 105, Costa by submission plus 450, Costa by KO plus 200
"Aleandro Costa. I think he's a lock on this card. I think Alisandro Costa is going to bust up Cody Duran undefeat."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ picks Alessandro Costa, believing he should win. He notes Costa is live for a submission as a crafty grappler, but also mentions a decision win is possible.

Costa by submission or decision
"I think Alisandro A Costa should win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ picks Costa to win, likely by submission, citing his low center of gravity, physical grappling, and knockout power. He believes Durand will struggle with Costa's striking and wrestling, and that Costa's jiu-jitsu is a threat. AJ notes that Durand's recent win was at bantamweight and that cutting back to flyweight may not serve him well.

Costa by submission at +375; Costa by decision at +250; over 1.5 rounds at -190
"I think Costa's jiu-jitsu is pretty nice. I feel like at some point Costa hurts him. And I think we're looking at a submission for Costa."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa because of his power and ability to knock out a chinny Cody Durden. He notes Costa's striking style with a high guard and patient approach, and that he should knock out Durden early. However, he expresses concern about Costa's cardio and short notice, but still believes Costa should win.

"Costa powerful, dangerous, should knock out a Chinny Cody Deran. That's what should happen. That's probably what happens. I'm going to pick that to happen."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa but is worried about his cardio due to two short-notice fights in six weeks. He notes Costa is dangerous early with power, while Durden is chinny but a dog who pressures forward. He thinks Costa wins early or Durden grinds him out. He is not betting at -300 odds.

Not betting on Costa at -300 due to cardio concerns.
"Costa is going to be the pick, but I'm probably not going to be betting on him at 3 to one."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 2.5 rounds at -125 for 1.25 units. He notes Costa has power and can finish, while Durden has been finished seven times. He expects a violent fight regardless of who wins, with Costa likely finishing or Durden possibly catching Costa, who is chinny. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

Under 2.5 rounds (-125, 1.25 units); mentions Costa KO or club and sub, Durden finish possible
"I like the under two and a half rounds here. I'm not going to go crazy on it's a it's a flyweight fight at the end of the day, but, you know, Costa is a violent fighter whether he wins or whether he loses."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Cody picks Cody Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling, durability, and constant activity. He notes Costa's cardio issues and short notice. He believes Durden can win rounds early and possibly hold on.

"I think I'm testing Cody Deran. He is a winner at life and hopefully winner in the cage come Saturday."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Jacob picks Cody Durden because he's done betting against him, noting Durden always shows up and has dog in him. He believes Durden will get early takedowns, control Costa, and slow him down, potentially finding a finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges the risk if Durden can't get takedowns and gets chinned.

"I'm done [ __ ] betting against Cody Duran. Like every time you bet against Cody Deran like against last week against Joffrey Felo like he he just comes in and shows up and he's the one that's not on short notice."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Lucrative James picks Alessandro Costa via KO, citing Costa's power and Durden's history of being hurt. He notes Durden's toughness and cardio but believes Costa can finish early. He admits he doesn't trust Costa at -250 and won't bet it, but predicts a knockout win.

Alessandro Costa by KO
"Alessandro via KO is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The host acknowledges that many overlooked Durden previously but now respects his pace and pressure. He expects Durden to push a high pace and pressure that Costa may not keep up with, leading to a close decision victory, provided Durden's durability holds against Costa's BJJ.

"I expect Durden to really put a pace and pressure on Costa and pull out a very close decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Alessandro Costa but is hesitant, acknowledging Durden's strong first rounds. He expects Costa to wear Durden down as the fight goes on. He prefers to bet Costa live after round one.

Bet Costa live after round one
"I will pick Aleandro Costa to wear him down as the fight goes on, but Duran probably gets takedowns and probably has some success early."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa to win by body shot TKO in the second round. He notes Costa has two finishes in a row by body shots and that Cody Durden is weak to the body. He also mentions that Costa is a short, stocky, powerful fighter who is hard to grapple, but sometimes takes a while to get going.

body shot TKO in second round; Costa should be a slight favorite, not a big underdog
"I've got Aleandro Costa here. I think he's going to beat Cody Deran with body shots. I'm going for a crafty body shot TKO pick up against the cage, the classic."