vs
-200 +210
UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Natan Levy
3.7 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
3.19 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
5.03 TD Avg
58.0% TD Acc.
41.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Genaro Valdez
4.08 SLpM
30.0% Str. Acc.
7.16 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.54 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
36.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Natan Levy
Moneyline
BetRivers -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +460
Submission
BetRivers +200
Decision
FanDuel +400
Genaro Valdez
Moneyline
Caesars +210
KO/TKO
BetRivers +420
Submission
FanDuel +850
Decision
DraftKings +800
Natan Levy - Fight History
LOSS vs Mike Davis
Submission R2 1:43 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Davis 0 8 of 9 88% 18 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
Natan Levy 1 3 of 7 42% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 5:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Davis 0 5 of 5 100% 15 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
Natan Levy 1 2 of 4 50% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:46
2 Mike Davis 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Natan Levy 0 1 of 3 33% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Davis 8 of 9 88% 2 of 3 5 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 3
Natan Levy 3 of 7 42% 3 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Davis 5 of 5 100% 1 of 1 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
Natan Levy 2 of 4 50% 2 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Mike Davis 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Natan Levy 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Davis

Angelo is surprised Davis is a 3-to-1 favorite but agrees with the logic. Davis is a fast, athletic striker with real power and excellent wrestling, as shown in his last fight with 14 takedowns over three fights. He thinks Davis can implement the same game plan as Hafa Garcia did against Levy: wrestle and avoid BJJ. He hopes the line tightens to 2-to-1 or 1.5-to-1 before he bets.

waiting for line movement to bet; hopes for better odds
"Mike Davis is going to be the pick I'm hoping this line rebounds a little bit I'm not betting on him at 3 to one so hopefully that tightens up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mike Davis

Big Brady picks Mike Davis to win by third-round knockout. He believes Davis is better everywhere and should dominate if he shows up healthy. He acknowledges inactivity concerns but thinks Davis' skill advantage will lead to a finish.

by third round knockout
"I'm going to take Davis to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Davis

Cody is confident in Mike Davis, highlighting his well-rounded skills, nasty leg kicks, and wrestling. He notes Levy relies on wrestling but Davis is the better wrestler and will stuff takedowns. He predicts Davis will out-strike Levy, shatter his lead leg, and win decisively, likely by decision.

by decision
"Mike Davis should eat this guy... he's the better wrestler between the two."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mike Davis

Lucrative James leans toward Mike Davis, citing his superior wrestling and striking. He notes that Levy couldn't finish Dano Valdez and that Davis has fought tough competition. However, he expresses concern about Davis's inactivity and potential lack of focus due to streaming, which could lead to an upset. Overall, he sees Davis as the much better fighter.

"I like Mike Davis in this spot I feel like something weird could happen in that fight I don't really know why I think that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mike Davis

The host considers Davis the overall better fighter in both striking and grappling, which is what Levy normally relies on. He expects the fight to be slightly competitive early but Davis will pull away late and eventually find a finishing opportunity in the final round, specifically circling the submission prop.

submission
"I am circling the submission prop here for Mike Davis"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Davis

Paul agrees, noting Davis has skills everywhere but has been inactive. He sees Levy as a reasonable matchup and expects Davis to win however he wants, likely by decision. He mentions Davis by decision at +120 as a prop.

by decision (+120)
"Davis should be able to win this fight however he wants... likely by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mike Davis

The Guru picks Mike Davis by TKO in round one. He praises Davis's striking and grappling, noting his win over Mason Jones has aged well. He criticizes Levy's performances, calling his win over Jairo Valdez unimpressive and his loss to Hakeem Dawodu. He believes Davis is another level on the feet and will be too quick, catching Levy on the jaw.

TKO in round one
"I'm definitely going to go with Mike Davis getting this one done by you know what I'll say TKO in round one I think he's going to be way too quick for Natan Levy and catch him straight on the …"
WIN vs Genaro Valdez
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
WIN vs Mike Breeden
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natan Levy 0 92 of 141 65% 99 of 150 9 of 16 56% 0 0 3:39
Mike Breeden 0 104 of 210 49% 115 of 221 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natan Levy 0 25 of 41 60% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:39
Mike Breeden 0 19 of 45 42% 20 of 46 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:40
2 Natan Levy 0 21 of 27 77% 27 of 35 7 of 8 87% 0 0 2:40
Mike Breeden 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Natan Levy 0 46 of 73 63% 46 of 73 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:20
Mike Breeden 0 62 of 120 51% 71 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natan Levy 92 of 141 65% 68 of 115 19 of 21 5 of 5 80 of 124 4 of 8 8 of 9
Mike Breeden 104 of 210 49% 64 of 158 39 of 51 1 of 1 89 of 185 13 of 22 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natan Levy 25 of 41 60% 10 of 25 11 of 12 4 of 4 20 of 35 2 of 3 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 19 of 45 42% 14 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Natan Levy 21 of 27 77% 17 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 20 1 of 1 5 of 6
Mike Breeden 23 of 45 51% 12 of 32 11 of 13 0 of 0 19 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Natan Levy 46 of 73 63% 41 of 67 4 of 5 1 of 1 45 of 69 1 of 4 0 of 0
Mike Breeden 62 of 120 51% 38 of 88 23 of 31 1 of 1 52 of 102 8 of 15 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Angelo picks Natan Levy, but expresses doubts about his prospect status. He thinks Levy's relentless takedown attempts will get the fight to the ground and impress judges, but notes Levy gets too excited and ends up in bad scrambles. He says if Levy blows through Breeden, he may be wrong about him, but if he's sloppy, it's too soon for the UFC.

"i still think he is able to get it done against mike breen and i think his relentless takedown attempts ... the tan will get it to the ground"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Big Brady picks Natan Levy, praising his well-rounded game, wrestling, top control, and cardio. He believes Levy can compete on the feet and take the fight to the mat if needed. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is not UFC caliber and has limited tools.

decision
"i like levy i'm going to take levy to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Cody agrees with Levy, noting Breeden's lack of offensive wrestling and poor striking defense. He thinks Levy's kicks and outside fighting will be effective, and that Levy's grappling looked improved in his last fight. Cody mentions Levy trains at Syndicate MMA with high-level partners, which should help. He doesn't see Breeden as a threat.

"i'm with you as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Daniel Levi picks Natan Levy but is not crazy about the -185 price. He likes Levy's karate style and grappling, and believes Breeden may not be UFC caliber. Levi sees Levy getting back on track but passes on betting due to lack of value.

"i see natan levy getting back on track i'm just not crazy about the minus 185 price tag right um ... pass"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Natan Levy

The host picks Levy, citing his karate style and grappling. He notes Breeden's takedown defense is decent but Levy's leg kicks and wrestling will be effective. Levy's boxing is poor but he will use range and takedowns to control the fight. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is tough but not UFC caliber.

Levy by decision +175, fight goes the distance -155
"i'll go levy levy by decision which is currently plus 175"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Paul picks Natan Levy, citing Breeden's poor performance against Alexander Hernandez and his susceptibility to leg kicks. He notes Levy's karate background and kicking game, and thinks Levy can stay on the outside and pick Breeden apart. Paul acknowledges Levy's greenness but believes he is improving and should be good enough to beat Breeden.

"i think i will side with the favorite in this one but it's not like i love it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Natan Levy

The Guru picks Natan Levy, noting his close loss to Rafael Alves was not bad and that he showed technical prowess in his UFC debut. He criticizes Mike Breeden for being a replacement who was knocked out by Alexander Hernandez. The Guru believes Levy is young and hungry, and that Breeden has lost every time he stepped up against decent opponents. He predicts Levy by decision 29-28.

Levy by decision 29-28
"i'm gonna go natan levy by decision 29 28 over mike breeden in a close scrap back and forth levy's technique gets it done"
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 35 of 91 38% 55 of 117 7 of 12 58% 0 0 5:37
Natan Levy 0 47 of 127 37% 56 of 136 3 of 7 42% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 13 of 24 54% 20 of 32 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:14
Natan Levy 0 13 of 44 29% 16 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 11 of 35 31% 15 of 40 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:58
Natan Levy 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:48
3 Rafa García 0 11 of 32 34% 20 of 45 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:25
Natan Levy 0 17 of 43 39% 23 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 35 of 91 38% 21 of 74 10 of 13 4 of 4 31 of 83 3 of 3 1 of 5
Natan Levy 47 of 127 37% 21 of 94 19 of 26 7 of 7 45 of 121 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 13 of 24 54% 7 of 17 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Natan Levy 13 of 44 29% 6 of 32 3 of 8 4 of 4 12 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 11 of 35 31% 6 of 28 4 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 2
Natan Levy 17 of 40 42% 5 of 27 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 11 of 32 34% 8 of 29 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 3
Natan Levy 17 of 43 39% 10 of 35 7 of 8 0 of 0 16 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Natan Levy

Round 1
Now in three of five matches on the card so far, one UFC fighter will likely pick up their first win. Whether it is ex-Combate champ Garcia (11-2, 0-2 UFC) or unbeaten Israeli upstart Levy (6-0, 0-0 UFC), referee Jason Herzog draws the charge and is ready for what happens next. No one wants to touch gloves, and instead Garcia marches forward to pressure the newcomer. Levy avoids a punch combination and just skims the top of his foe’s head with a kick. Garcia gives it back with a few punches, and they slug it out before returning to the center of the cage. The Israeli fighter throws so hard that he falls to a knee, and Garcia grabs hold of his neck to hold him down and consider a choke attempt. Levy on one knee fights off the back take tries of “Gifted,” but he cannot break this head lock grip until Garcia pushes through to take him down. Levy is quick to roll to his knees and back up, and they trade single punches. Levy sits down on a body kick, and he chops at Garcia’s lead calf. Again, Levy swings with all his might to take him off-balance, and Garcia sees this and avoids the wind-up. Levy lets loose with a high kick that misses the mark, and Garcia tags him with a right hand. As Levy aims a counter, Garcia is faster and slugs him with an overhand right. Standing right in front of the other, they proceed to trade at will one after the other. Garcia fires a body kick that gets caught, and Levy pursues a takedown from it but cannot ground Garcia. Instead, Garcia pulls his leg out and grabs hold of Levy to push him into the wire. As Garcia grinds him against the fence, Levy sweeps the leg out and drops Garcia down to the mat. Garcia gathers himself, gets up, and hits his own single to put Levy down seconds before the round ends. The frame concludes with Garcia on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Levy
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
They both trade strikes to start off the round, and as Levy tries to go up high with a kick, Garcia catches it. “Gifted” takes advantage of a gift opportunity to plant Levy on his back, and the newcomer is able to blast right back up to his feet. When they break, it is Garcia who scores with a straight right hand, while Levy’s attempt to knock his head off goes wide as he throws too hard. They both get back to boxing range and bang it out, before deciding to alternate with kicks. Levy just misses with a left hand, and Garcia counters him with a left hook. Garcia is able to deliver a kick to the body, but Levy does not miss a beat and gives him one right back that lands with an audible thud. Levy’s head kick glances off the shoulder, and he digs one to the body that makes Garcia grimace. Garcia charges ahead, loading up on power punches to get Levy to backpedal, but Levy stands firm and throws back. Garcia scores a clean one-two, and Levy’s kicks land heavily in response. As Garcia plods forward, Levy grabs him and takes him down. Garcia walks up to his feet as Levy takes his back standing, and when Garcia gets up, Levy wrenches him right back down to the mat. Garcia, on one knee, lets go with no-look elbows that do not do much. Instead, Garcia fights the hands, and he powers up as he watches himself on the video screen. When they both get upright, Garcia pursues a single, but Levy stops it and kicks him in the head. As soon as Levy puts his foot down, he dives in for a single, only to get stuffed. Garcia walks straight into a knee to the side, and Levy boots him in the body right after. As he is eating these strikes unanswered, he grits it out and swarms ahead to take Levy down. Levy rolls to his knees, gets punched in the side of the head, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Levy
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Levy

Round 3
Right before the final frame opens, Levy has to get tape cut off, buying the fighters a few extra seconds of recovery. Levy strides out of his corner when it begins with a loud kick to the body. Garcia answers with a kick on the inside thigh, only for it to clatter off the cup. Levy waves it off and they back off to re-find their range. Levy engages first after a brief staring contest, with a head kick that is partly blocked. Garcia aims a counter, only to get uppercutted for his trouble. Garcia pursues a takedown, and when Levy pushes him off, he throws a looping punch that misses and allows Garcia to latch on to him like an Alabama tick. Levy is able to remain on his feet and fight out of the clinch, but Garcia marks him up with several uppercuts before the separation. Garcia dives forward with a takedown effort, and Levy stands him up, clinches with him and knees “Gifted” in the body several times. A spinning back kick from Levy lands cleanly to the liver, and Garcia grits his teeth and goes after a takedown. They clash heads, and Levy drops to a knee while he tries to gather himself and stand back up. Garcia relentlessly goes after takedown after takedown, bullying the unbeaten fighter into the fence until Levy explodes and wings a right hand that misses. Levy gathers his thoughts and changes levels for his own takedown, and Garcia’s sprawl stops this from succeeding. Garcia times a knee to the head just after Levy pulls his hands off the ground, and Levy groans. They split apart, and when Levy swings for the bleachers, Garcia hits a picturesque takedown to plant Levy on his back for the remainder of the round. Levy pulls rubber guard, but there are no submissions to be found as Garcia lands punches from on top to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Natan Levy via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García despite cardio concerns, citing his experience, power, and takedown defense. He notes Natan Levy is a good grappler but inexperienced and gets into bad scrambles. He does not place a moneyline bet but likes a prop: Rafa García wins inside the distance with decision no action at -150, which refunds if Rafa loses a decision. He expects Rafa to threaten a finish early.

Considering Rafa García wins inside the distance / decision no action at -150; DraftKings price 8400; monkey knife fight more/more
"i am still going to go with him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Big Brady picks Natan Levy but with low confidence, calling it his least confident pick on the card. He notes that Levy is undefeated and well-rounded with solid striking, wrestling, and grappling, but his competition has been weak. He acknowledges Rafa Garcia has fought much better opposition and is tough. He expects a close fight and predicts Levy by decision, but he has no bet on this fight.

"I'm going to pick natan levy to get it done ... this is probably my least confident pick on the entire car"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Cody picks Garcia but is nervous due to Garcia's last performance where he gassed after a fast start against Chris Gruetzemacher. He believes that loss was an anomaly, as Gruetzemacher is a durable grinder, while Levy is not. He notes that Levy has fought mostly at featherweight and may be undersized at lightweight. Garcia should have advantages in size, experience, and striking. Cody hopes Garcia paces himself better this time.

"i gotta go with garcia but i'd be lying if i said i wasn't a little bit nervous on the basis of his last results"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Daniel Levi picks Rafa García despite acknowledging Natan Levy's talent. He notes that García is very tough and has displayed heart in previous fights, even in losses. He questions whether Levy can handle a rough, bloody fight, while García has proven he can. Levi believes García's experience and toughness give him the edge, but he is hesitant because Levy has a brighter future.

"i'm actually going to take him for a win but i agree i think levy has the brighter future"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rafa García

Lock leans Garcia because he has fought more proven competition and has heavy hands. He thinks Garcia will be the one completing takedowns and controlling Levy on top. He notes Levy has been in trouble before, nearly getting knocked out by Ben Lugo. Lock sees a decision win for Garcia at +175, but also likes the KO prop at +650.

Rafa García by KO +650, Rafa García by decision +175, over 2.5 rounds -175
"I slightly lean on the garcia side I do think he'll be the one kind of completing takedowns here and kind of controlling levy from on top."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Paul agrees with Garcia but is cautious. He notes that Garcia opened at +110 and money has come in on him, but the loss to Gruetzemacher was horrible. He thinks Garcia's size and experience should be enough against Levy, who has been off for a year and may not have fought top competition. Paul is not fully confident but leans Garcia.

"yeah that seems fair enough the uh the action i think yeah garcia opened up at like a plus 110 and action has been going towards uh notting levy so or sorry action has been going towards uh garcia"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Natan Levy

The MMA Guru picks Natan Levy over Rafa García. He expresses skepticism about Levy's kung fu background but notes that Levy looked good on the Contender Series, beating a bigger opponent in Shaheen Santana by triangle choke. He criticizes García for losing to Chris Gruetzemacher, calling it a disgrace. He expects Levy to win with his grappling, possibly by submission in the later rounds.

"i'm gonna go with natan levy here"
Genaro Valdez - Fight History
LOSS vs Evan Elder
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Evan Elder 1 96 of 195 49% 96 of 195 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:06
Genaro Valdez 1 64 of 236 27% 65 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Evan Elder 0 25 of 50 50% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Genaro Valdez 0 24 of 76 31% 25 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Evan Elder 1 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Genaro Valdez 1 22 of 80 27% 22 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Evan Elder 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
Genaro Valdez 0 18 of 80 22% 18 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Evan Elder 96 of 195 49% 61 of 155 15 of 19 20 of 21 96 of 193 0 of 1 0 of 1
Genaro Valdez 64 of 236 27% 51 of 210 4 of 6 9 of 20 62 of 231 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Evan Elder 25 of 50 50% 12 of 35 5 of 6 8 of 9 25 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Genaro Valdez 24 of 76 31% 22 of 69 1 of 2 1 of 5 23 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Evan Elder 37 of 67 55% 21 of 49 8 of 10 8 of 8 37 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Genaro Valdez 22 of 80 27% 16 of 70 1 of 2 5 of 8 22 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Evan Elder 34 of 78 43% 28 of 71 2 of 3 4 of 4 34 of 76 0 of 1 0 of 1
Genaro Valdez 18 of 80 22% 13 of 71 2 of 2 3 of 7 17 of 76 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Angelo picks Evan Elder, believing he is slightly better everywhere except straight-up BJJ, but his submission defense is good enough to keep him out of trouble. He notes both fighters have back-to-back losses, but Elder should win. However, he calls anyone playing minus 275 crazy, saying there are better spots.

"Evan Elder is the pick but anybody playing minus 275 here is crazy you just hate money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Big Brady picks Evan Elder, expecting a wild brawl. He notes Valdez gets hurt frequently and has poor durability, while Elder is tougher and more durable. He predicts Elder will survive an early storm, hurt Valdez multiple times, and eventually finish him via TKO in the second round. He doesn't love the -300 price but thinks Elder's durability will be the difference.

Second round TKO
"I can see Evan Elder knocking down Valdez like five times eventually getting on top and finishing him via TKO so give me Evan Elder to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for Evan Elder"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Cody picks Elder, citing his power, durability, and improvement at 155. He thinks Elder will clip Valdez and put him away, as Valdez is defensively liable and gets hit frequently. He notes Elder's cut stoppage loss was not a knockout and he is hungry for his first UFC win. He expects a banger that ends in a knockout within two rounds.

fight of the night prop at wide odds
"I feel like Elders got a little more power a little more durability so I feel like at some point he's going to clip him and put him away"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The host believes Elder is the better striker and has good durability to handle a war with Valdez. He expects Elder to mix in takedowns if needed and potentially get a TKO. He notes Elder's improvements at Kill Cliff FC and sees this as a great matchup for Elder to get his first UFC win.

"I'm fully on the Evan Elder train and I think that this is a spectacular matchup for him to go out there and put a bang and a statement on so that people start taking notice"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Paul picks Elder, agreeing it's a dangerous fight but noting Elder's durability and that his cut stoppage loss wasn't a knockout. He thinks both guys will stand and trade, and Elder has the advantage. He mentions a PrizePicks prop for over 40.5 significant strikes for Elder, as he expects a high-volume banger.

over 40.5 significant strikes for Elder on PrizePicks
"I'm with you I don't love the minus 300 but I do know at least with Evan Elder that I mean it was only it was a cut that kind of took him out of that fight not the fact …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder over Genaro Valdez, praising Elder's footwork, power, and toughness after a strong performance against Nazim Sadykhov. He criticizes Valdez's recent losses to Natan Levy and Matt Frevola, noting Valdez's plodding style and damage taken. He predicts Elder wins by decision or late TKO.

"I'm gonna go with an elder winning that one by decision or TKO later on"
LOSS vs Natan Levy
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
LOSS vs Matt Frevola
KO/TKO R1 3:15 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022