Career Averages - Clay Guida
Career Averages - Scott Holtzman
Clay Guida
Scott Holtzman
Clay Guida - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.
Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.
Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.
Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.
Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.
Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.
Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 43 of 134 | 32% | 63 of 155 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 85 of 141 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 18 of 64 | 28% | 19 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 29 of 48 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 26 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquim Silva | 43 of 134 | 32% | 19 of 103 | 14 of 20 | 10 of 11 | 36 of 127 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 46 of 91 | 50% | 33 of 72 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 64 | 15 of 19 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquim Silva | 18 of 64 | 28% | 6 of 51 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 15 of 32 | 46% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 7 | |
| 2 | Joaquim Silva | 14 of 33 | 42% | 9 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 15 of 20 | 75% | 12 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Joaquim Silva | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 26 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 25 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.
Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.
Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.
Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 0 | 63 of 252 | 25% | 63 of 252 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 141 of 287 | 49% | 143 of 289 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 0 | 23 of 92 | 25% | 23 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 34 of 89 | 38% | 34 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 0 | 21 of 88 | 23% | 21 of 88 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 65 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 0 | 19 of 72 | 26% | 19 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 42 of 88 | 47% | 44 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 63 of 252 | 25% | 49 of 227 | 4 of 12 | 10 of 13 | 63 of 252 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 141 of 287 | 49% | 130 of 269 | 5 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 138 of 284 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 23 of 92 | 25% | 16 of 82 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 34 of 89 | 38% | 29 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 21 of 88 | 23% | 17 of 80 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 65 of 110 | 59% | 63 of 107 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 62 of 107 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 19 of 72 | 26% | 16 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 42 of 88 | 47% | 38 of 81 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)
Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.
Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.
Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.
Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.
Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.
Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.
The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.
Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 66 of 183 | 36% | 95 of 215 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 65 of 166 | 39% | 77 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 23 of 79 | 29% | 23 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 19 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 29 of 53 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 0 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 43 of 83 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 66 of 183 | 36% | 30 of 134 | 23 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 58 of 173 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 65 of 166 | 39% | 55 of 146 | 5 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 60 of 160 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 23 of 79 | 29% | 10 of 59 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 48 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 17 of 40 | 42% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 26 of 64 | 40% | 11 of 44 | 13 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 25 of 61 | 40% | 23 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.
Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.
Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.
Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.
Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.
The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.
Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.
The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.
Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.
Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.
Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.
The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 50 of 87 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 65 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 8 of 30 | 26% | 34 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 63 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 18 of 50 | 36% | 8 of 39 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 41 of 60 | 68% | 22 of 39 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 8 of 30 | 26% | 6 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Leonardo Santos | 39 of 58 | 67% | 21 of 38 | 16 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 19 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Leonardo Santos | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.
Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.
Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.
Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.
Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.
I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.
Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 0 | 72 of 212 | 33% | 72 of 212 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 98 of 192 | 51% | 101 of 198 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 32 of 52 | 61% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 26 of 72 | 36% | 26 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 31 of 90 | 34% | 31 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 35 of 82 | 42% | 35 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 72 of 212 | 33% | 30 of 161 | 5 of 13 | 37 of 38 | 64 of 203 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 98 of 192 | 51% | 70 of 159 | 17 of 21 | 11 of 12 | 80 of 172 | 18 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 15 of 50 | 30% | 7 of 38 | 0 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 13 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 32 of 52 | 61% | 17 of 33 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 36 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 26 of 72 | 36% | 10 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 13 | 22 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 31 of 58 | 53% | 24 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 31 of 90 | 34% | 13 of 67 | 2 of 7 | 16 of 16 | 29 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 35 of 82 | 42% | 29 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.
Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.
Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.
Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.
The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 58 of 126 | 46% | 70 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 49 of 89 | 55% | 65 of 107 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 6:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 29 of 44 | 65% | 31 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 13 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 58 of 126 | 46% | 52 of 113 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 47 of 115 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 |
| Michael Johnson | 49 of 89 | 55% | 31 of 71 | 12 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 72 | 14 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 31 of 66 | 46% | 26 of 55 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 62 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 29 of 44 | 65% | 21 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 14 of 27 | 51% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Michael Johnson | 13 of 24 | 54% | 4 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Michael Johnson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.
Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.
Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.
Scott Holtzman - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 66 of 183 | 36% | 95 of 215 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 65 of 166 | 39% | 77 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 23 of 79 | 29% | 23 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 19 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 29 of 53 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 0 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 43 of 83 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 66 of 183 | 36% | 30 of 134 | 23 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 58 of 173 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 65 of 166 | 39% | 55 of 146 | 5 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 60 of 160 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 23 of 79 | 29% | 10 of 59 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 48 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 17 of 40 | 42% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 26 of 64 | 40% | 11 of 44 | 13 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 25 of 61 | 40% | 23 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.
Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.
Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.
Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.
Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.
The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.
Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.
The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.
Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 48 | 20% | 10 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Scott Holtzman | 1 | 39 of 63 | 61% | 41 of 65 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 26 of 40 | 65% | 28 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Scott Holtzman | 1 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 13 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 48 | 20% | 5 of 34 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 8 | 10 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 39 of 63 | 61% | 17 of 38 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 15 | 30 of 52 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 8 of 33 | 24% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 26 of 40 | 65% | 10 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 10 of 11 | 22 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 2 of 15 | 13% | 1 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 13 of 23 | 56% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
Big Brady is very confident in Gamrot, calling him one of his most confident picks. He praises Gamrot's well-rounded skills, good cardio, and solid striking and wrestling. He notes Holtzman is older (37), coming off a knockout loss, and has average takedown defense (66%). Brady expects Gamrot to mix in takedowns and outwork Holtzman for a clear decision. He considers Gamrot a potential parlay piece.
Cody picks Gamrot, citing his superior grappling, cardio, and ring IQ. He notes Holtzman's takedown defense issues and age. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling and pressure will be too much, though he may start slow.
Daniel Levi picks Scott Holtzman, strongly believing that Mateusz Gamrot is overrated and his record is padded from fighting lower-level competition in KSW. He points out that Gamrot lost to Guram Kutateladze, whom Levi considers an average fighter. Levi thinks Holtzman's experience and toughness will be key, and he predicts a knockout. He also notes that Holtzman is a bigger underdog than he was against Beneil Dariush, which makes no sense to him.
The host thinks Gamrot is the more technical striker with good wrestling and fight IQ, and that Holtzman is declining at 37. He expects Gamrot to mix in takedowns and out-strike Holtzman over three rounds. He picks Gamrot to win by decision, though he notes the -235 line is a bit wide.
Paul picks Gamrot, noting his wrestling advantage and Holtzman's struggles against grapplers. He thinks Gamrot's technique and cardio will win out, though he may start slow. He expects Gamrot by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, calling him a much better well-rounded fighter than Scott Holtzman. He notes Holtzman is coming off a KO loss and is older. He thinks Gamrot will out-hustle Holtzman in grappling and could get a third-round submission, but safely predicts a 30-26 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 1 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 1 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 36 of 64 | 56% | 30 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 9 of 18 | 50% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 36 of 64 | 56% | 30 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 9 of 18 | 50% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking off the main card is another catchweight contest, this time down one scheduled weight class as Dariush (18-4-1, 12-4-1 UFC) came in two pounds heavy against “Hot Sauce” Holtzman (14-3, 7-3 UFC). Our Octagon ranger overseeing the match is Herb Dean, and despite the weight miss, there is a touch of gloves to signify the respect between these two men. Holtzman sticks out his jab, and he ducks a counter to land a right straight. Dariush returns fire with a blistering body kick, and Holtzman stretches his fingers out and jabs Dariush in the eye with a thumb to halt the action early. Dean gives them a pause, and when they begin, they touch gloves again. Dariush kicks low a few times, and one ricochets off Holtzman’s cup. Another exchange leads to another eye poke from a jabbing pinky, and we’ve seen three fouls in 45 seconds. When the action resumes again, Dariush comes out swinging. He charges forward with a few punches and turns that into a takedown attempt, lifting up the single and his opponent in the air but unable to secure it. One of the punches in the prior exchange has opened up a cut above Holtzman’s eye, and it has started to leak into his eye. Dariush grinds him hard on the fence as Holtzman tries to fend him off, and “Hot Sauce” breaks free and lands a few hard hooks. Dariush blasts Holtzman with a knee about as clean as anyone can land, and Holtzman is hurt badly. Dariush swings wildly and lands several more times as Holtzman tries to survive. Dariush rips a few more knees as Holtzman falls towards the ground, with the latter attempting a desperation takedown. Dariush stuffs it and takes his back for a moment, but Holtzman gathers his senses and presses Dariush to the cage. Dariush cracks him with another knee and a left hand on the break, and Holtzman’s knees are still very weak. Dariush slings and misses a head kick, and Holtzman counters with a crisp left of his own. Dariush tags him with a left, and misses wildly with a head kick. The two men swing and evade strikes, and Dariush checks a leg kick and lands heavy shots. Dariush clubs him with several powerful shots, and Holtzman is stumbling across the cage in grave danger.
Dariush walks forward calmly and spins without any telegraphing, and scorches “Hot Sauce” with a back fist that may have actually been more of his forearm, and Holtzman is done like dinner.
Dean jumps in to rescue Holtzman, who has now suffered the first stoppage loss of his career after a wild battle.
The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Scott Holtzman R1 4:38 via TKO (Spinning Backfist)
Big Brady picks Dariush, citing his overall talent and ability to take the fight to the ground. He notes Holtzman's power and durability as concerns but believes Dariush can avoid getting knocked out and secure a decision or submission. He predicts a decision win for Dariush.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush to win, but with caution. He notes that Dariush is the more skilled fighter with a serious black belt in jiu-jitsu and good striking, but he has a questionable chin and gets rocked in almost every fight. Levi believes Dariush's grappling advantage will be key, especially if he can take Holtzman's back. He also mentions that Holtzman is live if he can survive the first round and land a big shot, but ultimately leans with Dariush.
Holtzman has quicker hands and better in-and-out movement, and he can crack Dariush's chin. Dariush's striking defense is suspect, and he needs to get the fight to the ground to win. Holtzman's pressure and countering opportunities could lead to a KO. However, the under 2.5 rounds is the best bet as both have finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush to win by submission in the later rounds. He notes that Scott Holtzman is tough but lacks finishing ability, while Dariush has a history of winning fights even when losing early. He expects Holtzman to win the first round, but Dariush to take over in the third and secure a submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 58 of 121 | 47% | 66 of 131 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 88 of 197 | 44% | 120 of 231 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Holtzman | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 21 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Scott Holtzman | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 43 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 | |
| 3 | Scott Holtzman | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 40 of 84 | 47% | 57 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Holtzman | 58 of 121 | 47% | 33 of 93 | 13 of 15 | 12 of 13 | 44 of 104 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Jim Miller | 88 of 197 | 44% | 77 of 180 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 9 | 70 of 169 | 10 of 16 | 8 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Holtzman | 20 of 46 | 43% | 11 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 18 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jim Miller | 17 of 54 | 31% | 13 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Scott Holtzman | 12 of 23 | 52% | 6 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Jim Miller | 31 of 59 | 52% | 28 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 | |
| 3 | Scott Holtzman | 26 of 52 | 50% | 16 of 41 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 42 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Jim Miller | 40 of 84 | 47% | 36 of 80 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 73 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Up next is a man in Miller (31-13, 1 NC; 20-12, 1 NC UFC) who sports nearly three times the MMA experience as his opponent, “Hot Sauce” Holtzman (13-3, 6-3 UFC), at lightweight. Miller will tie Donald Cerrone with the most appearances in UFC history (34) by competing tonight, although we do not expect that record to hold for long by either man. The two engage in dueling 1980’s walkouts, as Holtzman uses “Wanted Dead or Alive” by Bon Jovi, while Miller counters with “Working for the Weekend” by Loverboy. Referee Robert Romero may not want to admit it, but he enjoyed the walkout music as much as everyone else did. Holtzman opens up with pawing jabs to find his range, and Miller is the first to commit with a strike by missing with a long left hand. Miller kicks the leg out from beneath “Hot Sauce,” but Holtzman springs back to his feet without issue. Holtzman throws a low kick, and lazily flicks out a right front kick that misses, so Miller times a counter left hand and nearly kicks the leg out again. Miller avoids a looping right hand with another quick counter left. Miller backs up, and then lands a heavy body kick before switching to the other side with a powerful left hook. Miller targets that lead leg again with a kick, and Holtzman responds with a front kick that falls short of the target. Holtzman feints and fakes his way in, but Miller does not bite on those and times a knee up the middle and a straight left. Holtzman crowds Miller against the cage, but “A-10” throws a high kick and then crashes forward to consider a takedown. Holtzman spins him off and pushes Miller against the fence, so Miller lifts up a quick knee. Miller breaks free and lands a left, so the two trade punches. Holtzman stings Miller with a right, so Miller replies in kind. As Miller charges forward, Holtzman tags Miller with a right, and then lands another. One of the punches in the series from Holtzman has opened up the nose of Miller, so Miller rushes forward with an uppercut that just misses the mark. Holtzman wings a right hand, and as he misses, Miller comes right back at him. Miller cracks Holtzman with a left hand that wobbles the legs of the man from Tennessee, but he is quick to get his bearings as he avoids a superman punch coming his way. This close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Round 2
This is the first time Miller has seen a second round in quite some time, and it begins furiously, as both land on one another heavily. Holtzman lands a leg kick, and initiates the clinch where he ties Miller up against the fence. Miller eats an elbow, and tries to set up a Thai clinch but instead fires an elbow back at him. Holtzman whiffs with an uppercut, and Miller is fast on the counter. Holtzman swings with a spinning elbow, and Miller ducks and immediately pursues the back of his opponent. Holtzman thwarts a takedown attempt and pushes free from a potentially dangerous position, and starts loading up on shots. Miller takes several punches and is hurt and bloodied up. Miller, ever the action fighter, throws right back and lands harshly. Miller fires a head kick that is blocked, and as he tries to swing for the fences, Holtzman races forward to clinch up. Holtzman trips the legs out and gets Miller down in full guard. Miller’s corner calls for Mission Control, and Miller obliges, lifting his leg to tie up Holtzman as his corner calls for other moves from the 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu repertoire. Briefly flirting with an omoplata, Holtzman avoids the maneuver and stands back up before dropping back down with some heavy elbows. Miller avoids the brunt of the damage but still absorbs some powerful strikes as he tries to kick off and get free. The round ends with Holtzman standing back up again.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman
Round 3
A bloody Miller walks forward and lands a solid left, but Holtzman replies with a stiff right that snaps the head back of the longtime vet. Holtzman splits the guard with an uppercut, and Miller tries to counter and nearly falls over. Miller loads up with a pair of left hands, and Holtzman keeps moving to avoid most of them flush. Miller connects with one and stands up Holtzman, and “Hot Sauce” fires back with a solid right as he presses Miller against the fence. Miller circles out and the two start trading, but Holtzman is landing more effectively as Miller’s movement appears to be somewhat compromised. Holtzman lands a stern right hand, and avoids a huge looping shot from Miller as he clinches up again. Holtzman brings up a few knees to the sternum, and fires an elbow and a few quick punches to the body. Miller gets free after eating some serious shots, and kicks the leg out from beneath Holtzman again. Miller is unable to capitalize on it, and Holtzman begins to target the head and body of his opponent with some vicious punches. Miller throws back, but his counters are increasingly labored and Holtzman is able to evade them in time. Holtzman closes the distance to hold Miller against the cage wall, and after a brief clinch period, Miller shoves him away with around 30 seconds left. With reckless abandon, Miller throws wild punches, and Holtzman follows with some of his own. Holtzman leaps in the air with a knee, tries to spin with an elbow, and Miller aims a head kick back at his direction. The two warriors trade until the bitter end, and then raise their arms in victory after hard-fought battle.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman (29-28 Holtzman)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman (30-27 Holtzman)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman (29-28 Holtzman)
The Official Result
Scott Holtzman def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Daniel Levi picks Scott Holtzman to win by unanimous decision, possibly a late TKO. He believes Holtzman is the more physical fighter with more left in the tank, and that if he avoids Miller's early guillotine and big shots, he can implement calf kicks and grind out a win. He notes Miller's tendency to gas if extended.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Holtzman | 1 | 44 of 92 | 47% | 55 of 108 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:54 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 0 | 16 of 58 | 27% | 20 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Holtzman | 1 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Scott Holtzman | 0 | 36 of 67 | 53% | 43 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 0 | 11 of 48 | 22% | 13 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Holtzman | 44 of 92 | 47% | 37 of 77 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 33 of 72 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 15 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 16 of 58 | 27% | 13 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Holtzman | 8 of 25 | 32% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 4 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 7 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 5 of 10 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Scott Holtzman | 36 of 67 | 53% | 31 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 8 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 11 of 48 | 22% | 9 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nik Lentz | 0 | 54 of 122 | 44% | 86 of 157 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 71 of 122 | 58% | 79 of 130 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 6:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nik Lentz | 0 | 5 of 20 | 25% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 32 of 43 | 74% | 38 of 49 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 | |
| 2 | Nik Lentz | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 23 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 23 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 3 | Nik Lentz | 0 | 32 of 54 | 59% | 43 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 18 of 36 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nik Lentz | 54 of 122 | 44% | 39 of 99 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 40 of 107 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 7 |
| Scott Holtzman | 71 of 122 | 58% | 39 of 88 | 16 of 18 | 16 of 16 | 55 of 105 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nik Lentz | 5 of 20 | 25% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 32 of 43 | 74% | 11 of 21 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 14 | 17 of 27 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nik Lentz | 17 of 48 | 35% | 11 of 40 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 23 of 45 | 51% | 14 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nik Lentz | 32 of 54 | 59% | 25 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 7 |
| Scott Holtzman | 16 of 34 | 47% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Holtzman | 1 | 73 of 111 | 65% | 96 of 138 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:33 |
| Alan Patrick | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 27 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Holtzman | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Alan Patrick | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Scott Holtzman | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 34 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Alan Patrick | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 3 | Scott Holtzman | 1 | 31 of 42 | 73% | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Alan Patrick | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Holtzman | 73 of 111 | 65% | 55 of 91 | 8 of 10 | 10 of 10 | 27 of 56 | 6 of 6 | 40 of 49 |
| Alan Patrick | 25 of 62 | 40% | 16 of 45 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 22 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Holtzman | 19 of 34 | 55% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Alan Patrick | 11 of 25 | 44% | 5 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Scott Holtzman | 23 of 35 | 65% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 12 |
| Alan Patrick | 11 of 25 | 44% | 8 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Scott Holtzman | 31 of 42 | 73% | 29 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 30 |
| Alan Patrick | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 173 of 212 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 9:49 |
| Darrell Horcher | 0 | 36 of 63 | 57% | 60 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Holtzman | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 44 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Darrell Horcher | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 2 | Scott Holtzman | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 47 of 69 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Darrell Horcher | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Scott Holtzman | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 82 of 89 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Darrell Horcher | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Holtzman | 49 of 82 | 59% | 28 of 60 | 20 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 37 | 13 of 15 | 24 of 30 |
| Darrell Horcher | 36 of 63 | 57% | 28 of 54 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 32 | 15 of 21 | 8 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Holtzman | 20 of 29 | 68% | 11 of 20 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 11 |
| Darrell Horcher | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Scott Holtzman | 19 of 38 | 50% | 13 of 31 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 19 |
| Darrell Horcher | 14 of 23 | 60% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Scott Holtzman | 10 of 15 | 66% | 4 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Darrell Horcher | 10 of 21 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.
Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.
Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.
Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.
Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.
The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.
Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.
The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.
Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.
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