Career Averages - Roman Dolidze
Career Averages - Jack Hermansson
Roman Dolidze
Jack Hermansson
Roman Dolidze - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 40 of 94 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 7:07 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 54 of 99 | 54% | 78 of 125 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 23 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 28 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 10 of 34 | 29% | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 54 of 99 | 54% | 18 of 52 | 6 of 12 | 30 of 35 | 51 of 92 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 16 of 29 | 55% | 5 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 13 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 5 of 19 | 26% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 20 of 44 | 45% | 6 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 15 | 20 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 18 of 26 | 69% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan because of his speed, athleticism, and striking advantage. He notes Roman Dolidze is a world champion grappler but doesn't always use his wrestling and has poor fight IQ. He is not betting on this fight because Roman can be dangerous on any given day and CLD is not a genius himself.
Big Brady confidently picks Christian Leroy Duncan, noting that Duncan is seven years younger, much quicker, and has more variety on the feet. He points out that Roman Dolidze looked bad in his last fight against Fluffy Hernandez and doesn't wrestle enough (less than one takedown per 15 minutes). He thinks Duncan will pick apart Dolidze over 15 minutes and win a decision, as Dolidze is tough but unlikely to get the fight to the ground.
Cody agrees, citing Duncan's dynamic striking and Dolidze's susceptibility to speed. He expects a finish or clear decision for Duncan.
Connor picks Duncan but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight could be ugly. He notes that Duncan has a 'meme fighter' aura and can look like a killer in bursts, but lacks a clear idea of how to win rounds. Connor points out that Dolidze is a big, strong galoot who is happy to hold opponents against the fence. He thinks the odds are too wide and calls it more of a coin flip.
Daniel is high on CLD, believing his speed and athleticism will be too much for Dolidze. He thinks CLD will have a breakout performance and knock Dolidze out, giving him his first real knockout loss. He notes Dolidze's gas tank issues and CLD's improved fight IQ.
Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by knockout. He highlights Duncan's athleticism, speed, and recent improvements, while noting Dolidze is older and slower. He expects Duncan to land at will and eventually finish Dolidze.
Duncan is a favorable stylistic matchup for the British fighter. Dolidze is old, slow, and flat-footed; Duncan is fast, athletic, and accurate. Duncan should dominate on the feet and win easily. The price is too steep to bet, but Duncan should win comfortably.
James picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he is the much better striker and will knock out Roman Dolidze. He notes that Dolidze is not a great wrestler and will struggle to take Duncan down. He thinks Duncan's dynamic strikes and clinch work will be too much.
The host picks Christian Leroy Duncan by knockout but is hesitant due to the wide line. He notes Duncan's improved clinch game and knockout power, but warns that Dolidze's pressure and toughness could cause Duncan to break mentally. He expects Duncan to land big shots and get the KO, but advises caution.
Paul sees Duncan as the younger, faster fighter heading in the right direction, while Dolidze is declining. He expects Duncan to win by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan to finish Roman Dolidze in round two or three. He praises Duncan's chin, composure, and dynamic striking, noting he took big shots from Gregory Rodrigues. He criticizes Dolidze as a plodding, technical grappler who was outgrappled by Anthony Hernandez. He expects Duncan to win the low kick battle, defend takedowns, and land a brutal combination.
Zane picks Duncan but is hesitant, noting several ways the fight could be terrible. He believes Duncan is a better striker and has 70% takedown defense, which should be enough against Dolidze's poor wrestling. However, he worries that Dolidze's strength and clinch work could lead to a grinding fight. Zane sees Duncan's path to a showcase win but acknowledges Dolidze is a tough, strong fighter who can make it ugly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 36 of 107 | 33% | 39 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 91 of 152 | 59% | 120 of 187 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 1 | 0 | 7:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 21 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 44 of 73 | 60% | 52 of 83 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 18 of 27 | 66% | 28 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 4 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 19 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 36 of 107 | 33% | 25 of 88 | 4 of 11 | 7 of 8 | 34 of 101 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 91 of 152 | 59% | 67 of 128 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 18 | 48 of 102 | 13 of 18 | 30 of 32 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 10 of 31 | 32% | 5 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 19 of 37 | 51% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 20 of 52 | 38% | 15 of 42 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 44 of 73 | 60% | 38 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 47 | 7 of 11 | 15 of 15 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 4 of 16 | 25% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 18 of 27 | 66% | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 14 | |
| 4 | Roman Dolidze | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 10 of 15 | 66% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo leans Anthony Hernandez, citing his incredible cardio and pace. He notes Hernandez is a good grappler but Roman Dolidze is a phenomenal grappler with power. Angelo thinks Hernandez will take over in later rounds with pressure, similar to Umar vs Morab. He expects Hernandez to win a decision after giving up early rounds.
Big Brady is confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling him a future champion with an unmatched pace. He acknowledges Dolidze's power and tricky grappling, but believes Hernandez will survive the early rounds and take over as Dolidze's cardio fades. Brady predicts a late finish, specifically a fifth-round TKO.
Connor picks Anthony Hernandez because Hernandez has a clear, consistent game plan focused on relentless wrestling and pace, while Dolidze is clumsy, slow, and has poor takedown defense. He notes that Hernandez's cardio and mental toughness are key, and that Dolidze's only path to victory is an opportunistic finish early. Connor compares it to Ngannou vs. Gane, where the smaller wrestler exhausts the bigger opponent.
The host expects Hernandez to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and put it on Dolidze. He acknowledges Dolidze will land big shots early, but believes Hernandez can eat them and eventually break Dolidze, leading to a round four or five finish by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, highlighting his underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to attack from his back. He believes Dolidze's size and presence on the feet will trouble Hernandez, who relies on volume. He predicts a submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round two or three, possibly after hurting Hernandez on the feet.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Hernandez's wrestling process is relentless and that Dolidze's takedown defense is terrible (33%). He notes that Hernandez is a smaller middleweight but has great cardio, while Dolidze is a big, lumbering oaf who gasses. Zane thinks Hernandez will exhaust Dolidze against the cage and eventually get a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 111 of 220 | 50% | 112 of 221 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 141 of 338 | 41% | 141 of 340 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 31 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 18 of 62 | 29% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 37 of 71 | 52% | 37 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 30 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 38 of 87 | 43% | 38 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 111 of 220 | 50% | 72 of 173 | 8 of 11 | 31 of 36 | 110 of 218 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 141 of 338 | 41% | 85 of 253 | 20 of 36 | 36 of 49 | 137 of 332 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 19 of 38 | 50% | 8 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 17 of 52 | 32% | 9 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 31 of 66 | 46% | 18 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 31 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 22 of 34 | 64% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 18 of 62 | 29% | 12 of 50 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 21 of 43 | 48% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 37 of 71 | 52% | 24 of 51 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 13 | 36 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 29 of 60 | 48% | 24 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 28 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 38 of 87 | 43% | 22 of 62 | 10 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 36 of 83 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze over Marvin Vettori in the rematch. He cites Vettori's two-year layoff, a rumored shoulder injury, and Dolidze's progression since their first fight. Angelo notes Dolidze has improved his striking and grappling activity, and he likes the 'win inside distance, decision no action' prop for Dolidze because he can finish and is durable.
Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori, arguing that the first fight was close but Vettori outlanded Dolidze in two of three rounds. He emphasizes that this is a five-round fight, which favors Vettori's superior cardio and minute-winning style, while Dolidze is not a five-round fighter and needs a finish to win. Brady believes Vettori's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where he will outwork Dolidze. He predicts a decision win for Vettori, though he expresses concern about corrupt judges.
Cody believes Hernandez's weaponized gas tank and constant pressure will eventually break Dolidze, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Hernandez is a slow starter and has durability issues, but expects him to take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Hernandez after the first round for better value.
Connor picks Vettori despite acknowledging the X-factors of injury and camp change, because he believes Vettori's Kings MMA programming makes him durable and consistent. He notes that Vettori's style of moving forward and punching is hard to break, and that Dolidze's unathletic brawling may not be enough to overcome Vettori's pressure. However, he expresses concern that Vettori might try to be too technical after the layoff.
Daniel picks Roman Dolidze as a plus money underdog, acknowledging the speed and movement advantage of Imavov but believing Dolidze's dangerous finishing ability and durability give him a chance over five rounds. He notes Dolidze's cardio concerns but thinks Imavov fades harder, and that Dolidze's leg lock threat is mitigated by Imavov's training with Ciryl Gane. He is not confident, calling it a tough fight where he could be frustrated if Dolidze gets outpointed.
The host expects Vettori to replicate his previous decision win, using his ability to mix it up in the clinch and improved striking to shut down Dolidze's overaggressive nature. He predicts Vettori will outpoint, out strike, and out grapple Dolidze to win on the scorecards.
Paul thinks Dolidze has improved striking and can exploit Hernandez's questionable standup and body vulnerability. He believes the market has overcooked Hernandez and sees value in Dolidze as a dog. He plans to wait for better odds, possibly plus 300 on fight day.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, believing he could have won the first fight. He notes Dolidze's momentum with three fights in 2024, including wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland, showing improvement. He questions Marvin Vettori's activity and recovery from the Cannonier beatdown and an injury. He thinks Dolidze's finishing potential and size advantage are key, and he predicts a 48-47 decision win for Dolidze, though a finish is possible. He also notes Dolidze is an underdog.
Zane picks Dolidze based on the suspicion that Vettori's long layoff and potential camp change to American Top Team could disrupt his game. He notes that Vettori backed up a lot and got hit hard in their first fight, and that Dolidze came worryingly close to outworking him. However, he acknowledges Dolidze's unathletic style and that Vettori is durable and hard to put away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 57 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 57 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 19 of 33 | 57% | 16 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 |
| Kevin Holland | 18 of 28 | 64% | 5 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 19 of 33 | 57% | 16 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 |
| Kevin Holland | 18 of 28 | 64% | 5 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)
Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.
The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.
Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.
Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.
Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.
Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.
The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.
Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 51 of 93 | 54% | 51 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 100 of 185 | 54% | 103 of 188 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 48 of 73 | 65% | 51 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 30 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 51 of 93 | 54% | 27 of 67 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 22 | 51 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 100 of 185 | 54% | 61 of 135 | 12 of 16 | 27 of 34 | 65 of 132 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 49 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 18 of 32 | 56% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 22 of 52 | 42% | 4 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 19 | 21 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 11 of 16 | 68% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 48 of 73 | 65% | 40 of 63 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 49 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 22 of 45 | 48% | 17 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 30 of 60 | 50% | 17 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 30 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Dolidze despite concerns about his inconsistency. He notes that Dolidze looked good against Marvin Vettori but terrible against Nassourdine Imavov, possibly due to the lack of crowd energy in the Apex. Cody believes Dolidze will benefit from the live crowd at UFC 303 and that his durability and pressure will be key. He also points out that Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight before and that Smith tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish.
Daniel has no strong read on this fight, noting both fighters are opportunistic finishers with similar qualities. He sees Dolidze potentially getting takedowns and grinding, but ultimately goes with the underdog Smith because he doesn't know enough and prefers the dog. He acknowledges it could realistically go either way.
Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze, stating that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has knockout power, as evidenced by his KO of Jack Hermansson. He believes Dolidze will stuff any takedown attempts from Smith and knock him out on the feet. Vreeland also praises Dolidze's underrated jiu-jitsu and sweeps, noting he won't fall into a dumb submission. He acknowledges the concern of Dolidze moving up in weight on short notice but still favors him.
Jeff Fox picks Roman Dolidze, noting that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has been knocking people out, including three straight before his last two losses. He mentions that Smith has screwed them over numerous times but still cannot pick him. Fox also points out that Dolidze is taking the fight on short notice but still expects him to win.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host thinks Dolidze's aggressiveness could cause Smith issues, and that Smith does not have the technical striking to pick Dolidze apart like Imavov did. He predicts Dolidze will break Smith and get a finish in the second or third round. However, he is not confident due to Dolidze's lack of technical prowess and the short notice weight class change, so he says this fight is likely a pass.
Paul leans toward Smith, noting that he has value as a plus-money underdog. He acknowledges Smith's tendency to fade in later rounds but believes Smith's striking is superior and that he can catch Dolidze early. Paul also mentions that Smith has a history of upsetting prospects and that Dolidze's last performance was concerning. However, he admits it's a close fight and that Smith's path to victory likely involves an early finish.
The Guru picks Anthony Smith over Roman Dolidze. He criticizes Dolidze as 'dog [__]' and believes Smith is a level above. He notes Smith's recent win over Vitor Petrino and his ability to survive on the ground, as seen against Jon Jones. He also mentions Smith will have a size advantage since Dolidze was preparing for middleweight. He expects Smith to win, possibly by finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 34 of 152 | 22% | 59 of 190 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 10:11 |
| Roman Dolidze | 1 | 112 of 189 | 59% | 154 of 248 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Roman Dolidze | 1 | 51 of 75 | 68% | 69 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:10 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 5 of 30 | 16% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 6 of 31 | 19% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:33 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 5 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 8 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 34 of 152 | 22% | 14 of 113 | 8 of 13 | 12 of 26 | 32 of 145 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 112 of 189 | 59% | 71 of 132 | 24 of 38 | 17 of 19 | 67 of 129 | 13 of 16 | 32 of 44 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 8 of 33 | 24% | 1 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 10 | 7 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 51 of 75 | 68% | 35 of 54 | 9 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 28 of 38 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 5 of 30 | 16% | 4 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 9 of 22 | 40% | 4 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 8 of 29 | 27% | 4 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 20 of 33 | 60% | 9 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 6 of 31 | 19% | 3 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 14 of 26 | 53% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 5 | Nassourdine Imavov | 7 of 29 | 24% | 2 of 18 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 18 of 33 | 54% | 13 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov but also bets on Roman Dolidze inside the distance. He explains that Dolidze has the power and submissions to finish but cannot be trusted to grapple, as seen in his last fight. He expects Imavov to win by decision, using movement and striking. He places a bet on Dolidze inside the distance with decision no action.
Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win a close decision. He notes that Imavov is a minute winner with high volume, while Dolidze is a moment winner with low volume but big shots. The five-round fight favors Imavov, as Dolidze has never gone five rounds and slows down. Brady expects Imavov to outland Dolidze and win a decision, though Dolidze could pull off a surprise finish.
Cody acknowledges both fighters are hard to read but leans to Dolidze as a plus money underdog. He notes Dolidze's Georgian toughness, improved cardio, and power, but worries about his low striking volume and reluctance to wrestle. He thinks if Dolidze stands and trades, Imavov's volume could outpoint him, but the dog price is worth a shot.
Imavov has cleaner technique and more paths to victory, but Dolidze's forward pressure in a five-round fight could be the difference maker. Imavov needs to stay within himself, pick his shots from distance, and possibly cut Dolidze to sway judges. The host is hesitant due to the line and the five-round duration, but officially picks Imavov by decision.
Paul is torn on the main event, calling it a pass from a betting perspective. He sees Imavov's cardio issues and Dolidze's size and strength advantages, but notes Dolidze's low output and questionable fight IQ. He slightly leans to Dolidze at plus money but says he likely won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Roman Dolidze, predicting a third or fourth round TKO. He notes Dolidze is a slugger who struggles against fighters with good footwork on the back foot, which is Imavov's strength. He cites Imavov's performance against Sean Strickland and his wrestling ability to take down Chris Curtis. He believes Imavov will work Dolidze over with front kicks and low kicks, eventually catching him with a one-two down the pipe.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 106 of 218 | 48% | 106 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 71 of 192 | 36% | 71 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 38 of 75 | 50% | 38 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 29 of 71 | 40% | 29 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 28 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 16 of 50 | 32% | 16 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 26 of 71 | 36% | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 106 of 218 | 48% | 60 of 165 | 8 of 13 | 38 of 40 | 100 of 212 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 71 of 192 | 36% | 52 of 169 | 11 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 67 of 180 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 38 of 75 | 50% | 24 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 12 | 35 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 29 of 71 | 40% | 20 of 62 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 28 of 69 | 40% | 11 of 48 | 3 of 6 | 14 of 15 | 28 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 16 of 50 | 32% | 12 of 44 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 37 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 26 of 71 | 36% | 20 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 61 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vettori because of his cement chin, incredible cardio, and submission defense. He thinks Dolidze will fade and cannot take Vettori down. He notes Dolidze's takedowns are trash and his only path is a submission, but Vettori's submission defense is good enough. He has a bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action) as a hedge.
Big Brady picks Vettori, citing his higher output (4.20 vs 2.62 significant strikes per minute) and durability (never knocked out). He questions Dolidze's path to victory, as Vettori is tough to finish and Dolidze has low volume. He predicts a decision win, but notes the odds are surprising and he may look for a prop instead.
Cody picks Vettori, arguing Dolidze is a 'comeback kid' who relies on finishing but fades in longer fights. He notes Dolidze's low volume and poor cardio, while Vettori is durable, has solid wrestling, and good cardio. He thinks Vettori wins by decision, possibly with takedowns. He says minus 270 isn't bad and likes Vettori by decision prop.
Connor picks Vettori for his consistency and durability. He notes that Vettori is a roundly solid fighter who doesn't get submitted or knocked out, and he maintains a steady output of one-twos. Dolidze is more of a wild athlete who relies on flashy moments but lacks process. Connor points out that Jack Hermansson was dominating Dolidze before collapsing, and Vettori is a tougher matchup because he won't break. He thinks Vettori's pace and durability will overwhelm Dolidze, who cannot craft a game plan to break Vettori down.
Jacob picks Dolidze, believing Vettori is an emotional idiot who will eventually shoot a takedown and get submitted. He thinks Vettori has no power and Dolidze can land a big shot. He notes Dolidze is undefeated except for a fight where Jacob picked against him. He is riding the Dolidze train until it falls off.
Vettori is a strong grappler with good clinch work and durability, though his striking is still developing. Dolidze is on a four-fight winning streak with knockout power, but his striking is technically lacking and he can be reckless. Vettori should weather early storms and use his wrestling to control the fight, likely winning a decision. The minus 300 line is a bit steep but the skill gap is clear.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Vettori. He notes Dolidze's volume is so low that an elite fighter should be able to do what Jack Hermansson did and extend it over 15 minutes. He likes Vettori by decision at minus 120 and says Dolidze has never been finished but Vettori can outpoint him.
The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori over Roman Dolidze, despite Vettori's sometimes questionable game plans. He notes Dolidze is dangerous on the ground but has poor striking and was easily picked apart by Jack Hermansson on the feet. Vettori outstruck Hermansson and stuffed his takedowns, so he should do the same to Dolidze. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Vettori, warning that if Vettori shoots takedowns he deserves to lose.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing Vettori's block-headed consistency. He notes that Vettori doesn't collapse when outsmarted; he just keeps coming. Dolidze is a flashy fighter but lacks the technical foundation to break Vettori down. Zane also mentions that Vettori's takedown defense and ability to stop takedowns are solid. He thinks Dolidze's best chance is a lucky shot, but Vettori's durability and pace will carry him to a decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 48 of 80 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 26 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 32 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 47 of 79 | 59% | 16 of 41 | 11 of 16 | 20 of 22 | 43 of 74 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Hermansson | 25 of 54 | 46% | 23 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 25 of 40 | 62% | 6 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 15 | 23 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Hermansson | 4 of 16 | 25% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 22 of 39 | 56% | 10 of 25 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 21 of 38 | 55% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a world champion grappler with real power. He notes Dolidze's impressive recent win over Phil Hawes, where he showed both submission and KO ability. He thinks Hermansson is a good grappler but not on Dolidze's level, and lacks power in his striking. He expects Dolidze to be the favorite by fight night and has a moneyline bet on him.
Big Brady is confident in Hermansson, citing his underrated striking, improved cardio, and superior grappling. He notes Dolidze's poor takedown defense (33%) and short-notice fight, expecting Hermansson to win exchanges on the feet, mix in takedowns, and finish a tired Dolidze in the second round by submission. He mentions Hermansson's dominant win over Chris Curtis as evidence.
Cody agrees, highlighting Hermansson's high output and Dolidze's low volume. He thinks Hermansson can win by decision or even submission, and prefers Hermansson by decision. He notes Dolidze's power but doubts he can land cleanly.
Daniel Levi leans Hermansson as a pure pick, citing his better competition, improved striking, and ground-and-pound. However, he notes Dolidze's danger everywhere and calls it a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He might bet Dolidze if the line widens to +200 or more.
The host picks Hermansson but is not confident due to Dolidze's tendency to pull off upsets. He thinks Hermansson will dictate the fight with clinching and striking from the outside, similar to his win over Chris Curtis. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a slow-paced fight. He warns that Dolidze is a wild man who could finish if he smells blood.
Paul thinks Hermansson has Dolidze covered everywhere. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Hermansson's output advantage. He expects Hermansson to keep the fight standing and use his reach and cardio to win a decision or possibly get a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson, citing his superior experience and grappling. He thinks Dolidze's recent wins are over lesser competition and that Hermansson's leg kicks and pressure will be key. He predicts Hermansson will take over in the later rounds and win a decision.
Jack Hermansson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 1 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 1 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 19 of 38 | 50% | 9 of 25 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 15 of 33 | 45% | 9 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 19 of 38 | 50% | 9 of 25 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 15 of 33 | 45% | 9 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, calling it a life savings on the caveman. He describes Orolbai as a fun grappler with non-stop pressure, cardio, and power, while Hermansson is an aging welterweight moving down in weight, which weakens his chin and cardio. Orolbai's game plan is simple: takedown, smash, win.
Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai (Mairbek Tukhugov) by first-round knockout, citing Hermansson's recent brutal KO loss and quick turnaround. He questions Hermansson's chin and weight cut to welterweight, expecting Orolbai to land a big shot and finish him early.
Cody picks Jack Hermansson confidently, pending weight cut. He notes that Orolbai is one-dimensional, a weight bully who relies on takedowns but has poor striking defense. Jack has a reach advantage, excellent wrestling, and BJJ. Cody believes Jack can stuff takedowns and outwork Orolbai, who gasses and gets hit a lot.
Connor picks Orolbai, citing his physicality and grinding style as a problem for Hermansson. He notes that Hermansson is making a drastic weight cut to welterweight, which often fails at this career stage. Connor acknowledges Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer but sees Orolbai's natural size and aggression as decisive.
Lucrative James picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing the weight class advantage (Orolbai moving up from 155, Hermansson cutting from 185). He believes Orolbai has better striking power, durability, and grappling. He notes Hermansson's recent KO loss and questionable chin. He predicts Orolbai will win, possibly by knockout.
Orolbai is a pressure grappler with solid cardio and finishing ability. Hermansson is dropping to welterweight at 37, with durability concerns and a long layoff. Orolbai should overwhelm Hermansson and finish him via TKO or submission.
Paul picks Jack Hermansson, noting that Orolbai is moving up to welterweight and has struggled with bigger opponents. Jack is a natural welterweight with good wrestling and submission skills. Paul believes Jack's experience and size will be too much for Orolbai, who has poor cardio and striking defense.
The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, believing Orolbai's speed and technique will overcome Hermansson's size. He notes Hermansson's KO loss and weight cut to welterweight. He trusts Orolbai's grappling defense and offensive submissions, predicting a win.
Zane picks Hermansson, betting that his size and strength at welterweight will be enough to control Orolbai. He notes that Orolbai's success depends on physicality, and if Hermansson is too strong, Orolbai's one-dimensional pressure will fail. Zane admits it's a risky pick given Hermansson's recent losses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 30 of 55 | 54% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 30 of 55 | 54% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Rodrigues's power and early success will carry him in a three-round fight, despite his cardio issues. He compares it to Jack Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer, where Hermansson survived early and took over, but notes that Rodrigues's loss to Jared Cannonier was in the fourth round and Cannonier hits harder. He is cautious because Rodrigues is a -180 favorite with cardio concerns, and he suggests the over 1.5 rounds might be a good bet.
Big Brady likes Rodrigues stylistically, noting his power advantage over Hermansson. He thinks Hermansson's best path is wrestling, but Rodrigues has good takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt. Brady expects the fight to stay standing, where Rodrigues will land harder shots. He references Marvin Vettori knocking down Hermansson as evidence of his chin vulnerability, and picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout.
The host notes Hermansson's long layoff and believes Rodrigues will dictate the pace with power punching and ground control, winning on the scorecards.
The host picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his activity and more intricate striking compared to Hermansson's last opponent. He believes Rodrigues' grappling is good enough to neutralize Hermansson's, and that Hermansson's long layoff is a concern. He predicts a TKO win for Rodrigues in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 121 of 235 | 51% | 188 of 327 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 92 of 250 | 36% | 95 of 254 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 22 of 60 | 36% | 22 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 43 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 20 of 65 | 30% | 20 of 65 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 33 of 57 | 57% | 58 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 5 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 52 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 121 of 235 | 51% | 74 of 174 | 15 of 23 | 32 of 38 | 111 of 219 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 10 |
| Joe Pyfer | 92 of 250 | 36% | 56 of 196 | 25 of 34 | 11 of 20 | 92 of 250 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 16 of 38 | 42% | 3 of 21 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 24 of 58 | 41% | 11 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 19 of 38 | 50% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 22 of 60 | 36% | 11 of 45 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 22 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 37 of 69 | 53% | 25 of 54 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 64 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 20 of 65 | 30% | 12 of 54 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jack Hermansson | 33 of 57 | 57% | 21 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 13 | 32 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 22 of 46 | 47% | 19 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jack Hermansson | 16 of 33 | 48% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 |
| Joe Pyfer | 4 of 21 | 19% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges Jack Hermansson's grappling credentials but notes his low takedown accuracy (29%). Joe Pyfer has incredible power, good wrestling, and has trained with high-level grapplers, including a win over Gerald Meerschaert. Angelo believes Pyfer is the real deal and that this is a perfect stepping stone fight. He suggests betting or parlaying Pyfer.
Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pyfer has dynamite in his hands and hits like a truck, while Hermansson has been knocked out before and struggles to get fights to the mat. He thinks the small cage favors Pyfer's pressure, and he expects Pyfer to knock Hermansson out early. He acknowledges Hermansson's cardio and grappling but believes Pyfer's power is the difference.
Cody sees value in Hermansson as a plus money underdog. He questions Pyfer's cardio and five-round experience, noting Pyfer has never fought three rounds and relies on early finishes against lower-level competition. Hermansson has proven volume and cardio over five rounds, with wins over Chris Curtis and competitive fights with Strickland and Vettori. Cody believes Pyfer's -260 price is too high given the unknowns, making Hermansson a clear dogger pass pick.
Hermansson is a tough veteran with a grappling-heavy approach and good durability. He should be able to weather Pyfer's early power and then take over with his grinding style, potentially winning by decision or late stoppage. Pyfer's cardio is untested against a durable opponent. However, Hermansson is coming off a knee injury, and Pyfer has youth and power. Low confidence pick.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling Hermansson a clear dogger pass. He notes Pyfer's lack of five-round experience and that Hermansson has multiple tools and paths to victory. Paul points out that if the fight goes deep, Hermansson's cardio and volume will be decisive. He also mentions that Pyfer could win by early knockout, but the value is on Hermansson at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer with high confidence, citing Pyfer's knockout power and grappling ability. He notes Pyfer's impressive KO of Gerald Meerschaert and his performance against Abdul Razak Alhassan, where Alhassan seemed scared. He believes Pyfer can put away Hermansson, who he criticizes for losing to Roman Dolidze. He predicts a first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 48 of 80 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 26 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 32 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 47 of 79 | 59% | 16 of 41 | 11 of 16 | 20 of 22 | 43 of 74 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Hermansson | 25 of 54 | 46% | 23 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 25 of 40 | 62% | 6 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 15 | 23 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Hermansson | 4 of 16 | 25% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 22 of 39 | 56% | 10 of 25 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 21 of 38 | 55% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a world champion grappler with real power. He notes Dolidze's impressive recent win over Phil Hawes, where he showed both submission and KO ability. He thinks Hermansson is a good grappler but not on Dolidze's level, and lacks power in his striking. He expects Dolidze to be the favorite by fight night and has a moneyline bet on him.
Big Brady is confident in Hermansson, citing his underrated striking, improved cardio, and superior grappling. He notes Dolidze's poor takedown defense (33%) and short-notice fight, expecting Hermansson to win exchanges on the feet, mix in takedowns, and finish a tired Dolidze in the second round by submission. He mentions Hermansson's dominant win over Chris Curtis as evidence.
Cody agrees, highlighting Hermansson's high output and Dolidze's low volume. He thinks Hermansson can win by decision or even submission, and prefers Hermansson by decision. He notes Dolidze's power but doubts he can land cleanly.
Daniel Levi leans Hermansson as a pure pick, citing his better competition, improved striking, and ground-and-pound. However, he notes Dolidze's danger everywhere and calls it a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He might bet Dolidze if the line widens to +200 or more.
The host picks Hermansson but is not confident due to Dolidze's tendency to pull off upsets. He thinks Hermansson will dictate the fight with clinching and striking from the outside, similar to his win over Chris Curtis. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a slow-paced fight. He warns that Dolidze is a wild man who could finish if he smells blood.
Paul thinks Hermansson has Dolidze covered everywhere. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Hermansson's output advantage. He expects Hermansson to keep the fight standing and use his reach and cardio to win a decision or possibly get a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson, citing his superior experience and grappling. He thinks Dolidze's recent wins are over lesser competition and that Hermansson's leg kicks and pressure will be key. He predicts Hermansson will take over in the later rounds and win a decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 100 of 251 | 39% | 100 of 251 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 43 of 125 | 34% | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 21 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 7 of 28 | 25% | 7 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 45 of 108 | 41% | 45 of 108 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 78 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 100 of 251 | 39% | 48 of 176 | 25 of 45 | 27 of 30 | 99 of 246 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 43 of 125 | 34% | 18 of 89 | 25 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 41 of 123 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 21 of 65 | 32% | 7 of 42 | 3 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 21 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 7 of 28 | 25% | 3 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 45 of 108 | 41% | 26 of 80 | 10 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 44 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 16 of 40 | 40% | 5 of 24 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 34 of 78 | 43% | 15 of 54 | 12 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 34 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 20 of 57 | 35% | 10 of 42 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a slight lean towards Chris Curtis but expresses buyer's remorse after betting on him. He notes Curtis has good boxing and takedown defense, but gassed in his last fight against Rodolfo Vieira and was outstruck. He points out Jack Hermansson went 0 for 8 on takedowns against Sean Strickland but still won rounds on some scorecards, meaning he can strike. He says the pick might change by fight day.
Big Brady picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He notes Curtis has shown improved takedown defense (stuffing all 20 of Rodolfo Vieira's attempts). On the feet, Curtis has the striking advantage. If Hermansson can't take him down, Curtis should outpoint him in a competitive decision. He acknowledges Hermansson's ground game is dangerous if he gets takedowns.
Cody is confident in Chris Curtis, citing his excellent cardio, takedown defense, and boxing. He argues that Hermansson's best volume comes in championship rounds, but this is a three-round fight. Cody notes Hermansson has been knocked out by punchers and dropped by Marvin Vettori, while Curtis has power and volume. He also mentions Curtis' training with Sean Strickland and his ability to stuff takedowns. Cody believes Curtis will keep the fight standing and box Hermansson up.
Daniel Levi leans towards Jack Hermansson, citing his top-level experience and dangerous ground game, particularly his guillotine choke. He acknowledges Chris Curtis's improved takedown defense and boxing, but questions whether Curtis can handle the step up in competition. Levi notes that Hermansson has been in there with the best and has a lot of heart, but also wonders if Hermansson still has the hunger after recent setbacks. He thinks Hermansson can find opportunistic takedowns and use his ground and pound to win.
Hermansson is too big and strong for Curtis. He will drag the fight to the ground and control him. Curtis defended 20 takedowns against Adolfo Vieira, but Vieira is a jiu-jitsu player, not a wrestler. Hermansson's wrestling is elite. Curtis will realize he should have stayed at 170.
Paul picks Jack Hermansson, feeling the line is too close and that there may be too much hype on Chris Curtis. He notes Hermansson is a legitimate pounder with great cardio, excellent wrestling, and complete skills. Paul acknowledges Curtis has been a cash printing machine but thinks this step up in competition might be too much. He wants to hear Cody's take before making any action.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He praises Curtis's grappling defense, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira. Hermansson will have success with takedowns early but will slow down. Curtis will land body shots and knees, pulling away in the last two rounds for a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 137 of 353 | 38% | 137 of 353 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 153 of 330 | 46% | 161 of 338 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 32 of 70 | 45% | 32 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 32 of 77 | 41% | 32 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 75 | 34% | 26 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 27 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 27 of 78 | 34% | 27 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 34 of 67 | 50% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 83 | 31% | 26 of 83 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 137 of 353 | 38% | 22 of 194 | 64 of 105 | 51 of 54 | 134 of 350 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 153 of 330 | 46% | 125 of 286 | 24 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 151 of 328 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 26 of 47 | 55% | 4 of 15 | 11 of 20 | 11 of 12 | 25 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 22 of 51 | 43% | 19 of 46 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 32 of 70 | 45% | 3 of 35 | 15 of 21 | 14 of 14 | 31 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 32 of 77 | 41% | 22 of 65 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 26 of 75 | 34% | 4 of 43 | 9 of 19 | 13 of 13 | 26 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 27 of 59 | 45% | 22 of 49 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 27 of 78 | 34% | 6 of 47 | 13 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 26 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 34 of 67 | 50% | 30 of 58 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 26 of 83 | 31% | 5 of 54 | 16 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 26 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 38 of 76 | 50% | 32 of 68 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 38 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Top-10 middleweights come to blows for the marquee matchup atop UFC Fight Night 200, with possible championship implications in play. “The Joker” Hermansson (22-6, 9-4 UFC) will try to blunt the momentum of the fast-swinging “Tarzan” Strickland (24-3, 11-3 UFC) in a clear-cut style matchup of a savvy grappler against a solid striker. Referee Herb Dean draws the final assignment of the evening, and he may have his hands full depending on where the fight goes. The gloves are touched, the fighters are ready, and it’s time for some action. The middleweights meet in the middle, and Hermansson lands first with a leg kick. Strickland checks the second one that comes to that target, and he flicks out a few jabs as Hermansson comes towards him. Strickland pops out his jab to split the guard repeatedly, and he blocks one from Hermansson but does not block the sweeping low kick. Strickland keeps his jab flowing, and he gets forced to fight off a takedown effort about a minute into the round. Strickland backs up to the fence, keeping himself upright, while Hermansson goes low for a single. Hermansson hooks the leg between his own, and Strickland defends with a few body shots but gets wrenched down to his hands and knees. “Tarzan” swings right back up to his feet, and Hermansson holds him from behind against the wire. Hermansson bails on the single so that he can knee the body, and he kicks Strickland’s calf on the way out. Strickland returns a jab, and Hermansson pushes one back that is far less snappy. Strickland blocks a body kick and is comfortable with his left jab finding the spot again and again. Strickland checks another leg kick, and Hermansson kicks it from the other side when he does. Strickland’s jab pierces the guard again and again, and he keeps at a safe range to dodge a three-punch salvo that swings his way. While Strickland powers out a jab, he eats a heavy body kick and a slapping inside low kick. Hermansson varies his targets while Strickland is primarily focused on sticking out a jab on the nose. Strickland follows a jab with a right, and Hermansson wears it well and replies with a low kick. The American opens up with another one-two, and it gives Hermansson pause for a moment but “The Joker” bites down on his mouthpiece and throws with a right hand and a leg kick. Strickland’s jab continues to find its home, and he adds in a front kick to the body. “Tarzan” dances out of the way of punches right at the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
The Swede comes out of his corner much more aggressively than the previous frame, swinging wildly with looping shots and heavier kicks. Strickland remains composed with his jabs and effective defense, checking the low kicks and blocking the bigger punches aimed at his head. They both trade strikes, and Hermansson rushes in with a combination that gets intercepted by a pair of punches. Hermansson hammers Strickland’s lead leg with another kick, and the calf is starting to change colors. Without setting it up, Hermansson ducks down for a takedown attempt, and Strickland shucks it off and pushes him aside. Strickland marches ahead with jabs and follow-up right hands, and he swats down a punch aimed at his face. Hermansson may be throwing harder, but the accuracy rate of his vicious strikes is low. Hermansson bites down on his mouthpiece to throw hands, and they begin to trade it out right in front of one another. Hermansson slugs Strickland in the face, and Strickland’s pace does not change that significantly, keeping to jabs and occasional twos. Hermansson has another takedown try stuffed with ease, allowing Strickland to get to his preferred range and smack him in the face with a jab and body with a right hand. Hermansson kicks the body, and Strickland does not register the blow as he checks a leg kick. Strickland picks out with punches and a single body kick, and Hermansson blitzes forward with a wide combination that mostly misses the mark. A heavy low kick connects for the Swede, but it is one-and-done as he backs away to reset. Strickland lands cleanly with a power jab, and he winds up with a power punch only for Hermansson to greet him with one of his own. They club one another in the face with big punches, and Strickland scores a few kicks to the body. Strickland sits back, avoids a punch and lets go with a right hand that knocks Hermansson cleanly off his feet. Strickland does not give chase, letting Hermansson up as the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
Strickland’s jab starts off again in the round, as he stabs out his fist while Hermansson keeps a high, tight guard. Hermansson’s low kicks have ranging success, as some land cleanly while others get checked. The hand speed shifts in favor of Strickland, catching Hermansson on the way in when Hermansson loads up on powerful strikes. The kicks are marking Strickland’s legs up as well, but Strickland keeps a stiff upper lip and does not change his approach. Hermansson keeps the leg attack going as he eats punches, giving up jabs to land calf kicks. Hermansson tries to bob and weave, and Strickland’s accurate jab is able to still find the target as Hermansson’s face begins to change color. Hermansson sells out for a heavy body kick, and it pounds into Strickland’s liver. Strickland does not budget, and he proceeds to let loose a high kick that glances off Hermansson’s shoulder. “Tarzan” smoothly dodges punches while feeding Hermansson a steady diet of jabs, and he gets tagged with a looping left hand. Strickland gives it back with a body kick, allowing him to take a moment in case he needs to shake off the cobwebs. Hermansson’s variety is much more noteworthy than Strickland, as Strickland sticks to a few fundamentals while Hermansson is trying everything he can to close the distance and land with power punches. Strickland slips and moves, sticking Hermansson with jabs and occasionally mixing in a front kick. Strickland snipes Hermansson with a right hand, and he slings a high kick that is blocked just in the nick of time. They both trade heavy shots, with Strickland scoring a right hand while Hermansson gets off a head kick, and the third frame wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The jab keeps right on coming from Strickland, but Hermansson is motivated to turn this into a wild brawl. The powerful punches of the Swede hit little but air, as Strickland calmly dodges and counters with jabs up the middle. Hermansson swings wide, using his forward momentum to go after a single-leg takedown, and Strickland keeps smart neck control by pushing Hermansson’s head down to fail on the attempt. The American is able to stop the try and gain some space, where he starts to add right hands in after stinging Hermansson with jabs. One such right hand stuns the Swede momentarily, but Hermansson shakes it off and throws back with bad intentions. Hermansson tries to punch around the jab, getting off a few right hands that loop around Strickland’s outstretched arm. Strickland doubles up on a jab, and Hermansson swings wild and goes wide. Strickland’s defensive nature does not put him into much danger, but it is damaging Hermansson to any noticeable degree. Strickland scores a leg kick, and he backs off as Hermansson goes for broke by ducking down and winging punches. Strickland does not absorb them and stays loose and light, jabbing out while windmilling punches go past him. Hermansson finally lands with a big right hand, but Strickland does not budge. Strickland continues to play the matador to Hermansson’s bull, and he pokes and prods Hermansson from a distance until the bell sounds. Both men appear to be bleeding after exchanges, with Strickland’s nose leaking while Hermansson has a cut under his right eye.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
Sensing he is likely down on the scorecards, Hermansson attacks recklessly with whipping punches. Strickland’s composure never changes, with his jab and footwork keeping him safe from the majority of harm. On the other hand, Hermansson throws so hard he nearly topples over, unable to find the range with more than a single strike in a salvo. Hermansson kicks the legs and body, and Strickland does what he does best with straight, sharp jabs right down Broadway. While Strickland gets off a one-two, Hermansson leaps ahead with a superman punch that pops Strickland on the cheek. Hermansson walks Strickland down, putting everything he has into his punches, and Strickland’s guard remains active and effective at staving off the worst that comes at him. Hermansson does not bother reacting to jabs any longer, and he throws hard at his opponent. Strickland gives it right back with a pair of one-twos, but he settles back to his calm, methodical pace while Hermansson shouts kiais after every strike. Strickland smoothly walks through a leg kick to push out a few jabs, and he leans to the side to slap Hermansson in the side of his calf. A whiff from Hermansson allows Strickland to counter heavily, but Hermansson does not falter. Instead, the Swede crashes forward in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and Strickland’s takedown defense remains immaculate as he pushes Hermansson away. Strickland shrugs off a low kick so that he can belt Hermansson in the face with a right hand, and he jabs out a few more times for good measure. Strickland starts talking trash, telling Hermansson to brawl with him. Hermansson appears confused at this, and his confusion lets Strickland blast him in the face a few times. Hermansson obliges him in one final throwdown, and they let it go right to the final horn. There is no bad blood after the last exchange, as they slap one another on the shoulder and laugh after five hard-fought rounds. After the head-scratching split decision score is read, Strickland thanks the UFC for the opportunity and says he is a “company man” and would be more than willing to fight the person that holds the belt next, if that is who’s next for him. The middleweight championship will be decided next week in Houston at UFC 271, with Sherdog in the building covering the fight card, so we will absolutely be there for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Jack Hermansson via Split Decision (49-46, 47-48, 49-46)
Angelo picks Sean Strickland but is hesitant. He notes Strickland's insane volume and solid takedown defense, but criticizes his lack of hip rotation and footwork. Hermansson is a great grappler who will shoot takedowns relentlessly. Angelo thinks Strickland's volume can win, but Hermansson could frustrate him with takedowns. He calls it a great live betting card.
Cody agrees with Paul that Strickland's volume and cardio should win the fight, but he is hesitant about the decision prop. He notes that Hermansson has good wrestling and BJJ, and if anyone can take Strickland down, it's Hermansson. However, he thinks Strickland's takedown defense has improved and that the fight will likely be decided by volume down the stretch. He picks Strickland but is hesitant on the method.
Daniel Levi picks Sean Strickland, citing his improved power at middleweight and his ability to stuff takedowns and get back up. He notes that Strickland's wrestling is underrated, having taken down Uriah Hall and Brendan Allen. Levi believes Jack Hermansson's herky-jerky striking won't trouble Strickland, and that Hermansson shells up when hit, while Strickland thrives on pressure. He predicts a late finish or unanimous decision for Strickland.
Lock of the Night favors Strickland, citing his high output and volume striking that will drown Hermansson on the feet. He acknowledges the unknown of Strickland's takedown defense at 185 but believes his black belt and training with Kutila will suffice. He expects Strickland to get back to his feet and outpoint Hermansson, similar to the Vettori fight. He likes the over 4.5 rounds and Strickland by decision.
Paul thinks Strickland's volume and cardio will be the difference in a five-round fight. He notes that Strickland lands a high volume of significant strikes and that Hermansson may struggle to keep up. He also mentions that Strickland's wrestling is rarely tested but he trains with great wrestlers, so Hermansson's takedown edge is uncertain. Paul picks Strickland but says the price is about right.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, citing his experience and underrated grappling. He notes that Khamzat Chimaev flies across the world to train grappling with Strickland, implying high-level skills. He predicts Strickland will piece up Hermansson on the feet, stuff takedowns, and win a decision (50-45 or 50-44). He mentions Hermansson doesn't take damage well, as seen in the Uriah Hall fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 55 of 100 | 55% | 141 of 192 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:11 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 42 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 24 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:51 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 31 of 45 | 68% | 99 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 55 of 100 | 55% | 44 of 82 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 12 | 20 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 44 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 40 of 92 | 43% | 34 of 84 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 18 of 42 | 42% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 12 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 26 of 67 | 38% | 21 of 60 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 10 of 17 | 58% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 31 of 45 | 68% | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 39 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The main card commences with a high-stakes middleweight showdown as “The Joker” Hermansson (21-6, 8-4 UFC) will try to take more shine away from “The Golden Boy” Shahbazyan (11-1, 4-1 UFC). Two finishers will collide here, with 27 stoppage wins among their 32 career victories, so referee Herb Dean will need to mind his P’s and Q’s. There is no sign of a glove touch, as the two would rather get right down to business. Hermansson hops around as he takes the center of the cage, where he lets go with several front kicks to the knee. Shahbazyan loads up on a few punches down the middle, and Hermansson swats them away and kicks his lead leg. Shahbazyan sneaks in a right hand, and he follows it with a few more powerful strikes that give Hermansson some pause. “The Joker” sits down on a jab, and he gets countered with a left hand on the way in. Three big punches from Shahbazyan ricochet off Hermansson’s guard, and he splits that guard with an uppercut. Hermansson looses a few head kicks and a leg kick, and a jab that comes his way stings him on the chin. A long shot from Hermansson is unsuccessful, as Shahbazyan hops back and lands a big uppercut as the Swede stands. Hermansson rushes in to throw hands, but Shahbazyan’s sharper jab gives him some pause. A few punches from Shahbazyan have marked up Hermansson’s face, but the Swede gives him a response with a few kicks. Shahbazyan’s hands continue to land, and a single leg kick from Hermansson finds its home. Shahbazyan mixes it up with body shots as he jabs, forcing Hermansson to shoot in on him from a distance. “The Golden Boy” shines as he stuffs it, and he cracks Hermansson with a right hand. Hermansson walks through everything, until he meets a one-two that wobbles his knees. “The Joker” is not laughing as he stalks Shahbazyan down, but Shahbazyan is the one landing practically at will. Shahbazyan circles on the outside and reaches out with a front kick, and he sticks Hermansson with a few jabs. Hermansson fires off a kick on the inside leg, and one on the outside, but Shahbazyan ignores them and drills him in the face with a pair of punches. Hermansson gets busted up with a nasty jab, and Hermansson throws wildly with power strikes but is largely inaccurate. Hermansson attacks, but those strikes do not find their home as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Round 2
Hermansson is ready to throw bombs as he starts the second round, and he clips Shahbazyan with an uppercut as he closes the distance. The Swede gets in close with his strikes, and he attempts a single leg takedown when he has Shahbazyan pushed against the fence. “The Joker” scoops up the legs, and he plants Shahbazyan firmly on his back. Shahbazyan closes the guard, but he is eating some serious ground-and-pound as Hermansson starts to unload on him. As a cut opens on his eyebrow from a strike, Shahbazyan wildly scrambles to burst back to his feet. Hermansson keeps him held tight with the threat of a guillotine choke as he leans against the cage wall, and he tightens it when Shahbazyan tries to step out. One solid elbow from Shahbazyan lands, but Hermansson tackles him down right into a guillotine choke from Shahbazyan. The Swede welcomes the exchange, as he is not concerned about the arm around his neck, and instead puts Shahbazyan down to the ground and hops to mount. Shahbazyan recovers position slightly, and Hermansson sits in a high half guard as he elbows Shahbazyan. A few more elbows for Hermansson land as he puts a knee on the belly to slice to full mount, but Shahbazyan is bucking like a bronco. Hermansson is unable to pass position, but he isolates an arm to hunt for a kimura. When Shahbazyan kicks to get out, Hermansson jumps a bit too high and Shahbazyan slides out the back door. Hermansson falls over, and Shahbazyan climbs on top to land a single elbow. “The Golden Boy” reaches down for a guillotine choke to keep the Swede in a position he would prefer, and bails on it to get into half guard. One big thudding elbow from Shahbazyan lands as Hermansson sits up, and “The Joker” twists and turns but falls short in his escape attempt. Hermansson kicks him off, and misses with a few upkicks. This is the perfect moment for Shahbazyan, who dives down with heavy ground-and-pound to end the round violently.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Round 3
The middleweights meet in the center of the cage, and both land single strikes on the other. Shahbazyan sticks out a few jabs, and Hermansson shrugs them off only to get stung with an uppercut. “The Joker” blocks a front kick up the middle, and Hermansson shoots in for a single. He is able to scoop Shahbazyan off the ground, and a second attempt puts “The Golden Boy” on his back. Hermansson, sitting in half guard, frees his right hand to start raining it down on the jaw of the American. Hermansson clubs him with punches and squeezes down with shoulder pressure to pass to mount. Hermansson elbows him a few times, and lands some thudding right hands that bounce Shahbazyan’s head off the cage floor. The Swede continues to pour it on with punches and elbows, and a big cut has opened up around Shahbazyan’s right eye. Hermansson stays comfortable in half guard, thwarting any of Shahbazyan attempts to get up and making him pay for each one with strikes. The blood continues to flow from the man on bottom, and Hermansson opens up with a barrage of nasty elbows as he looks to force a stoppage. Dean keeps a close eye on the proceedings as Hermansson wails on him, and Hermansson sits up to hammer down with a huge elbow. Hermansson steps over into side control as he lands hammerfists, and he turns it into a north-south before taking the other side. Hermansson steps to mount with seconds to go, and he unloads with a fury of punches until the final bloody round ends. As soon as the bell rings, Hermansson gets up and helps a battered Shahbazyan back up to his feet.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
The Official Result
Jack Hermansson def. Edmen Shahbazyan via Unanimous Decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
Big Brady picks Hermansson to survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round, then take over with takedowns and ground game. He notes Shahbazyan's cardio issues and high finish rate (91%) but believes Hermansson's grappling and experience will lead to a second-round submission. He acknowledges Shahbazyan could knock him out early.
Cody Saftic picks Jack Hermansson, criticizing the matchmaking for Shahbazyan. He notes that Hermansson is a strong wrestler with good cardio, while Shahbazyan has shown poor takedown defense and gassing issues. Saftic believes Hermansson will take the fight to the ground and wear Shahbazyan down, similar to what Derek Brunson did. He sees value at -150 and considers it a strong play.
Daniel Levi picks Edmen Shahbazyan, arguing that Shahbazyan is a young phenom with knockout power and takedown ability, and that his loss to Brunson was due to inexperience. He believes Jack Hermansson is a one-trick pony with poor striking defense and that he took too much damage in his last fight (broken orbital). He predicts Shahbazyan will knock out Hermansson in the first round, calling it a dog or pass situation.
Matt picks Edmen Shahbazyan by knockout, believing Shahbazyan's striking advantage and power will be too much for Hermansson. He notes Hermansson's defensive striking issues, having been hit by Cannonier, Vettori, and others. He thinks Shahbazyan's cardio issues may still exist, but he should finish within two rounds. He compares the matchup to Derek Brunson's win over Shahbazyan, but notes Brunson is more defensively sound than Hermansson. He likes Shahbazyan by KO at +265 and round 1 KO at +325.
Paul Shaughnessy agrees with Hermansson, noting that the line seems too good to be true. He points out that Hermansson has fought top competition and has good cardio, while Shahbazyan was dominated by Brunson. He suggests that if Shahbazyan wins, it would likely be by early knockout, but the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Hermansson. He recommends Hermansson by knockout at +265 as a prop.
The MMA Guru predicts Jack Hermansson will win by first-round submission via arm-in guillotine. He expects Shahbazyan to show improvements on the feet and stuff some takedowns early, but Hermansson will eventually catch him in a scramble as Shahbazyan tries to get back up, latching onto the guillotine for the finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 122 of 346 | 35% | 139 of 365 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Jack Hermansson | 1 | 164 of 334 | 49% | 202 of 376 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 5:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 1 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 58 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:29 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 20 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:28 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29 of 72 | 40% | 35 of 78 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 32 of 106 | 30% | 32 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 52 of 104 | 50% | 52 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 30 of 95 | 31% | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 54 of 109 | 49% | 55 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 122 of 346 | 35% | 86 of 306 | 18 of 22 | 18 of 18 | 118 of 339 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 164 of 334 | 49% | 143 of 312 | 18 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 156 of 320 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 16 of 38 | 42% | 8 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 23 of 47 | 48% | 18 of 42 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 15 of 35 | 42% | 7 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 12 of 24 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 29 of 72 | 40% | 21 of 62 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 23 of 50 | 46% | 20 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 32 of 106 | 30% | 28 of 102 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 103 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 52 of 104 | 50% | 46 of 98 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 52 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 30 of 95 | 31% | 22 of 87 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 54 of 109 | 49% | 52 of 106 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 54 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jack Hermansson as a dog, surprised by the line movement making Vettori the favorite. He believes Hermansson's cardio in the championship rounds is superior, as Vettori has slowed in the third round of three-round fights. He sees Hermansson's takedowns and ground game as key to grinding Vettori down, and notes Hermansson has faced tougher competition recently. He expects Hermansson to win a decision, possibly taking the last two rounds.
Daniel picks Jack Hermansson, arguing that Marvin Vettori's hype is inflated by a close fight with Israel Adesanya, which was not a true split decision. He notes that Hermansson has better volume, proven five-round cardio, and submission threats, as seen against Jacare Souza. He also questions Vettori's power, stating he doesn't have the one-punch knockout ability to stop Hermansson. However, he acknowledges that Hermansson's mental state could be a factor if he doesn't want to be there.
The host picks Jack Hermansson to win by decision, citing his superior wrestling and top pressure, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Vettori has not faced someone with Hermansson's ground game and that Hermansson's unorthodox style and lanky strength will be key. He is not confident enough to bet Hermansson at current odds but would consider it if the line widens to +150.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson by submission in the first two rounds, emphasizing that Hermansson's style is completely different from Jacare's—he fights on the outside, chops at the legs, and waits for takedowns. He believes Vettori is taking a jump too soon and that Hermansson's explosive grappling will be too much. He notes Hermansson almost submitted Jacare with an arm-in guillotine on short notice and predicts a similar early submission here.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a world champion grappler with real power. He notes Dolidze's impressive recent win over Phil Hawes, where he showed both submission and KO ability. He thinks Hermansson is a good grappler but not on Dolidze's level, and lacks power in his striking. He expects Dolidze to be the favorite by fight night and has a moneyline bet on him.
Big Brady is confident in Hermansson, citing his underrated striking, improved cardio, and superior grappling. He notes Dolidze's poor takedown defense (33%) and short-notice fight, expecting Hermansson to win exchanges on the feet, mix in takedowns, and finish a tired Dolidze in the second round by submission. He mentions Hermansson's dominant win over Chris Curtis as evidence.
Cody agrees, highlighting Hermansson's high output and Dolidze's low volume. He thinks Hermansson can win by decision or even submission, and prefers Hermansson by decision. He notes Dolidze's power but doubts he can land cleanly.
Daniel Levi leans Hermansson as a pure pick, citing his better competition, improved striking, and ground-and-pound. However, he notes Dolidze's danger everywhere and calls it a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He might bet Dolidze if the line widens to +200 or more.
The host picks Hermansson but is not confident due to Dolidze's tendency to pull off upsets. He thinks Hermansson will dictate the fight with clinching and striking from the outside, similar to his win over Chris Curtis. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a slow-paced fight. He warns that Dolidze is a wild man who could finish if he smells blood.
Paul thinks Hermansson has Dolidze covered everywhere. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Hermansson's output advantage. He expects Hermansson to keep the fight standing and use his reach and cardio to win a decision or possibly get a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson, citing his superior experience and grappling. He thinks Dolidze's recent wins are over lesser competition and that Hermansson's leg kicks and pressure will be key. He predicts Hermansson will take over in the later rounds and win a decision.
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