vs
+100 +100
UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022 · Catchweight (173.5 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 3"
Reach 80"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 0"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Philip Rowe
3.51 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.15 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.46 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Niko Price
5.11 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
5.57 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Philip Rowe
Moneyline
BetRivers +100
KO/TKO
BetWay +350
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
FanDuel +500
Niko Price
Moneyline
BetMGM +100
KO/TKO
BetRivers +225
Submission
BetRivers +1150
Decision
FanDuel +460
Philip Rowe - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 0 54 of 111 48% 59 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 0 66 of 111 59% 84 of 136 3 of 9 33% 2 0 5:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 14 of 26 53% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 0 32 of 38 84% 43 of 53 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:46
2 Philip Rowe 0 16 of 31 51% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 0 19 of 32 59% 26 of 42 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:49
3 Philip Rowe 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 54 of 111 48% 42 of 94 3 of 6 9 of 11 50 of 107 4 of 4 0 of 0
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 66 of 111 59% 40 of 77 10 of 17 16 of 17 47 of 87 6 of 10 13 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 14 of 26 53% 10 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 5 13 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 32 of 38 84% 22 of 27 4 of 5 6 of 6 18 of 23 2 of 3 12 of 12
2 Philip Rowe 16 of 31 51% 10 of 22 2 of 4 4 of 5 13 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 19 of 32 59% 10 of 19 4 of 8 5 of 5 15 of 26 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Philip Rowe 24 of 54 44% 22 of 51 1 of 2 1 of 1 24 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 15 of 41 36% 8 of 31 2 of 4 5 of 6 14 of 38 0 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Angelo picks Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, arguing that despite Phil Rowe's technical striking and experience, Rowe is hesitant and has poor takedown defense. He believes Jean-Paul's forward pressure, wrestling, and ability to get the fight to the ground will secure the win.

"Jean Paul Lespagnol Yianni is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Big Brady picks Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani to defeat Philip Rowe, citing Rowe's poor minute-winning and takedown defense. He notes Rowe loses the first round and a half of every fight and has never won a decision. He believes Lebosnoyani is a well-rounded prospect who won't slow down, and predicts a decision win. He acknowledges Lebosnoyani has been knocked out twice but thinks his skill advantage is clear.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by decision
"I'm going to take the newcomer here, LeBosneani, to go out there. And I actually think it's going to be a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody thinks Rowe's reach and experience will be key. He notes Lebosnoyani's durability issues and poor cardio. He expects Rowe to win by KO in the later rounds, possibly as a live bet.

"I'm actually gonna take him for some short dog money here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

Connor picks Rowe, noting that Lebosnoyani's aggressive guard and submission threats are a throwback and not part of a modern MMA game. Rowe is rangier and will win at range. Connor also points out that Lebosnoyani's losses include Spike Carlisle, indicating he's not ready for this level.

"I don't think it's gonna beat phil roe... being a small welterweight who likes to roll for leg locks... phil is just gonna be rangier out at range"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

The host heavily leans towards Lebosnoyani, citing his legitimate knockout power and dynamic striking against Rowe, who is slow, easy to hit, and has poor takedown defense. He believes Lebosnoyani will likely land the harder shots and knock Rowe out. However, he cannot bet Lebosnoyani at -205 because he is making his UFC debut on short notice, which adds uncertainty.

Lebosnoyani's short-notice debut; Rowe's poor takedown defense and slow striking
"I do heavily lean towards Gene Paul here, but there's no way I'm betting a guy at an implied probability of 67% who's coming in on short notice to make their debut."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

James leans toward Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani via decision, citing his grappling upside and movement. He notes that Philip Rowe is on a downward trajectory and that Lebosnoyani's in-and-out striking could pose problems. However, James admits he hasn't done full tape study and may change his pick.

"At the moment, I'm gonna take Jean Paul. I'll pick Jean Paul via decision here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Lebosnoyani is a black belt in BJJ with improving striking, and he should be able to crowd Rowe's range and take him down. Rowe struggles with grappling and has poor takedown defense, as seen in recent losses. Lebosnoyani's superior BJJ and cardio should allow him to control the fight and eventually find a submission. The chalk is justified here.

"I ultimately think JPL gets a dub in his UFC debut. And I think it comes by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Paul agrees, citing Rowe's BJJ black belt and power. He thinks Lebosnoyani's grappling isn't enough to take Rowe down and that Rowe's reach will be a problem. He expects Rowe to win by decision or late KO.

"Phil Row at plus 175 is a fine wager."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe as a slight underdog, feeling that the matchup favors Rowe's patience and composure. He notes that Lebosnoyani is a first round TKO merchant who hasn't faced great opponents, and if he doesn't finish Rowe early, he may crumble. Rowe has shown durability and the ability to come back in later rounds.

underdog, slight underdog, not quite two to one
"I'm going with Philip Rowe getting this one done as the slight underdog that he is."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

Zane picks Rowe, citing that Lebosnoyani is small, inexperienced, and defensively vulnerable. Rowe's range and size will be a problem for Lebosnoyani, who isn't committed to pressuring and goes in bursts. Zane thinks Rowe is dangerous at long range and this is a step up in competition for Lebosnoyani.

"I'll go with you. I'll take roe. I I mean, I do think the range is going to be a problem... roe is actually really dangerous at long range"
LOSS vs Ko Seok-hyun
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 0 4 of 7 57% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Ko Seok-hyun 0 36 of 42 85% 124 of 157 4 of 4 100% 0 0 13:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ko Seok-hyun 0 13 of 15 86% 36 of 45 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:30
2 Philip Rowe 0 0 of 2 0% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ko Seok-hyun 0 11 of 14 78% 47 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:32
3 Philip Rowe 0 3 of 4 75% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Ko Seok-hyun 0 12 of 13 92% 41 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ko Seok-hyun 36 of 42 85% 27 of 33 0 of 0 9 of 9 12 of 16 0 of 0 24 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ko Seok-hyun 13 of 15 86% 11 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 12
2 Philip Rowe 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ko Seok-hyun 11 of 14 78% 10 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 9
3 Philip Rowe 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ko Seok-hyun 12 of 13 92% 6 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 6 7 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ko Seok-hyun

Angelo picks Ko Seok-hyun, citing his heavy hands, forward pressure, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Phil Rowe is a good striker with length but can be low volume and gets hit a lot. He thinks Ko's weird stance and aggression will cause problems, and if Ko gets takedowns like he did against Oban Elliott, he is worth the money.

"Ko is going to be the pick, and honestly, he probably is worth the money if he gets those six takedowns that he got in his last fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady picks Philip Rowe as an upset, citing a market overreaction after Ko Seok-hyun's win over Oban Elliott. He notes Rowe has a 9-inch reach advantage and is the much bigger fighter with power. However, he acknowledges Ko's new wrestling wrinkle and that Rowe often loses the first round. He predicts Rowe will stuff takedowns and get a third-round knockout.

third round knockout, plus 160 underdog
"I'm going to go Row here. I'm going to go row here for the upset. I think it's a little bit too much of a market overreaction here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ko Seok-hyun

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Ko's aggressive clinch game and pressure will be a problem for Rowe. He thinks once Ko gets a strong start, he will be more aggressive and controlling as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Rowe could win if he sits outside and throws straight shots, but Ko's style is difficult to handle.

Rowe opened at +170, now +165; Ko opened at -200, now -190. Connor thinks the odds are reasonable.
"I think there's a very big chance he gives phil row problems with that."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Ko Seok-hyun

Lucrative James picks Ko Seok-hyun to win, highlighting his well-rounded skills including southpaw striking reminiscent of Conor McGregor, judo throws, and strong grappling. He notes that Philip Rowe has issues with being taken down and playing guard, which plays into Ko's strengths. James expects Ko to win a clean decision, possibly 30-27, by controlling the fight with his grappling and striking.

Ko Seok-hyun wins by decision
"I'm picking co again in this fight. I'm picking co via clean decision probably 3027."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ko Seok-hyun

Ko can disrupt the space of Rowe, who needs comfort to get off his offense. Ko will keep Rowe moving backwards, land a few takedowns, and win on the scorecards.

"I think Cole can really disrupt the space of Ro who often needs to be comfortable at space to try to get off on his own offense. But I think Cole will keep him moving backwards, land a few takedowns, …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ko Seok-hyun

The MMA Guru picks Song Yadong KO (Ko Seok-hyun) over Philip Rowe. He notes Rowe's size and reach but believes Ko's aggression, grappling, and KO power will be decisive. He criticizes Rowe's slow starts and lack of quality wins, while Ko's win over Oban Elliott impressed him. He predicts an early KO in round one.

early finish, KO in round one
"I'm going to say that Song Yadong KO is going to get this one done. I reckon he's going to crack Philip Rowe on the chin and put him down."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ko Seok-hyun

Zane picks Ko because of his excellent upper-body clinch wrestling and aggressive style, which should give Rowe problems. He notes that Rowe often starts bewildered and walks into clinches, and Ko's ability to crash into the clinch and control there will be decisive. He acknowledges Ko's striking is technically bad and he has a questionable chin, but thinks his pressure will overwhelm Rowe.

Rowe opened at +170, now +165; Ko opened at -200, now -190. Zane thinks the odds are reasonable.
"I'm gonna pick uh co to do that here as well. I want to see it more than anything."
WIN vs Ange Loosa
KO R3 4:03 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 1 85 of 166 51% 103 of 187 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Ange Loosa 1 65 of 106 61% 130 of 180 3 of 7 42% 0 0 6:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 2 of 3 66% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ange Loosa 0 15 of 23 65% 58 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:58
2 Philip Rowe 0 34 of 85 40% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ange Loosa 1 43 of 70 61% 65 of 94 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:15
3 Philip Rowe 1 49 of 78 62% 49 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Ange Loosa 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 85 of 166 51% 73 of 149 9 of 12 3 of 5 71 of 146 14 of 19 0 of 1
Ange Loosa 65 of 106 61% 32 of 69 13 of 16 20 of 21 47 of 84 10 of 12 8 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 2 of 3 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ange Loosa 15 of 23 65% 9 of 15 1 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 8
2 Philip Rowe 34 of 85 40% 29 of 77 4 of 6 1 of 2 31 of 81 3 of 4 0 of 0
Ange Loosa 43 of 70 61% 20 of 47 11 of 11 12 of 12 32 of 56 10 of 12 1 of 2
3 Philip Rowe 49 of 78 62% 43 of 71 5 of 6 1 of 1 38 of 62 11 of 15 0 of 1
Ange Loosa 7 of 13 53% 3 of 7 1 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ange Loosa

Angelo leans Ange Loosa because he expects him to be busier and out-volume Rowe. He notes that Rowe can be hesitant and flat, as seen in his last fight. He thinks Loosa can sneak out a close decision.

If we get the odds and an is an underdog, I might make little look something happen here
"I expect An to be busier and I think he's going to sneak out a close decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ange Loosa

Big Brady picks Ange Loosa, noting that Philip Rowe tends to start slow and come back late, but Loosa is durable and has never been knocked out. He believes Loosa's toughness and cardio will allow him to win a decision, as Rowe's best wins have aged poorly. He also mentions Loosa can mix in takedowns.

"I'm gonna take And Luca to win this fight and win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

Connor leans toward Rowe, noting that Rowe's simpler, cleaner striking could find Loosa's chin. He acknowledges that Loosa is tough and persistent, but thinks Loosa's disorderly style will leave him open to hard punches. Connor expects a close decision, possibly 29-28, with Rowe landing the harder shots.

"I think Loser is probably going to, I think they're probably each going to have one really good round and then row will probably have a kind of inactive round where he lands the harder shots."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ange Loosa

Loosa's power punching, strength, and physicality will keep Rowe against the cage or drag him to the ground, neutralizing Rowe's distance striking. Loosa will grind out a decision win.

"I'm really liking Losa in this spot as I think he can mix his power punching style with his strength and physicality..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

The Guru picks Philip Rowe to finish Ange Loosa, citing Loosa's tendency to be 'manipulatable' and cover up with his back against the cage. He notes Rowe's ability to work opponents up against the cage, as seen against Niko Price. He expects a finish, possibly by D'Arce choke, and mentions a prop bet on Loosa landing under 69.5 significant strikes.

Ange Loosa under 69.5 significant strikes
"I'm going to go with Philip Bro getting a finish over Luca. Um Lucer, here's the problem I have with him. I think he's a very well-trained fighter and um he's got everything, but it's just the guy just seems …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

Zane also leans toward Rowe, but is uncertain. He notes that Loosa's chaotic style could lead to him walking onto clean shots. However, he points out that Rowe often has one good idea per fight and can be inactive. Zane thinks it's a close fight that could go either way, but gives a slight edge to Rowe's cleaner striking.

"I don't really see any reason that either guy should be getting any kind of favoritism."
LOSS vs Jake Matthews
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Matthews 0 34 of 104 32% 40 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:50
Philip Rowe 0 66 of 164 40% 89 of 188 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Matthews 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Philip Rowe 0 30 of 73 41% 35 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
2 Jake Matthews 0 14 of 52 26% 14 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Philip Rowe 0 34 of 84 40% 34 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jake Matthews 0 2 of 6 33% 8 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:50
Philip Rowe 0 2 of 7 28% 20 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Matthews 34 of 104 32% 27 of 92 1 of 3 6 of 9 32 of 102 2 of 2 0 of 0
Philip Rowe 66 of 164 40% 36 of 125 18 of 27 12 of 12 60 of 155 3 of 6 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Matthews 18 of 46 39% 14 of 39 1 of 1 3 of 6 16 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
Philip Rowe 30 of 73 41% 17 of 56 6 of 10 7 of 7 26 of 68 2 of 3 2 of 2
2 Jake Matthews 14 of 52 26% 11 of 47 0 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Philip Rowe 34 of 84 40% 18 of 64 11 of 15 5 of 5 33 of 81 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jake Matthews 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Philip Rowe 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Philip Rowe
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-162), Rowe (+136)

Round 1
Keeping on with welterweight action, hyper-aggressive New Yorker Rowe (10-4, 3-2 UFC) will try to win one for local fans as he takes on Australia’s Matthews (19-7, 12-7 UFC). In all 10 of Rowe’s pro victories, he has prevailed by stoppage. His foe Matthews is no stranger to finishes, with all of his wins dating back to 2022 coming inside the distance. The fighters will collide under the supervision of referee Vitor “Shaolin” Ribeiro, and they do not touch gloves when he says it’s time to fight. Rowe shifts immediately to the middle of the Octagon, and he measures out his range with a low kick to either side of Matthews’ lead leg. Matthews jabs out, aiming one to the body as he finds his distance, and he evades a sweeping kick so he can give one back. Rowe sets up a high kick as Matthews, and commentator Daniel Cormier gushes on Rowe’s basketball prowess. As Cormier is talking about a pickup basketball game, Rowe absorbs a few low kicks, and Matthews then punches his way inside and even threatens with a trip. Matthews keeps jabbing the body, and Rowe stands firm and plants two heavy right hands on the temple. Matthews backs him off with body shots, and Rowe poses and flexes like Super Macho Man. Matthews takes a punch combo and digs a left to the body and right up top, and Rowe acknowledges the land with a nod. Rowe connects with a crisp right hand, smashing up Matthews’ nose, but Matthews is ready to bang and he throws back recklessly. Rowe wades in, and the two welterweights swing for the bleachers. A thudding right hand from Matthews finds its home on Rowe’s cheek, and swelling immediately develops. Rowe has a front kick split the guard, and he parries an overhand right. Matthews tries to come out firing with three punches, and when Rowe blocks it, the New Yorker dances. Rowe intensely strides forward, sticking out a sharp jab and keeping his guard tight. Rowe jumps forward with a knee, and Matthews lowers his left hand down and smacks the top of Rowe’s cup in an awkward situation. Rowe drops to his knees, and Ribeiro calls time. “The Fresh Prince” freshens himself up after a minute to recover, and they get going with a vengeance. Matthews races at him throwing hands, and Rowe retaliates and drives several knees to the dome. Rowe wings a head kick and falls to his back, and Matthews leaps after him and holds him down until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rowe
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rowe
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 2
Despite taking some facial damage in the last round, Matthews appears the more confident of the two, and he surges forward to attack. Matthews swings a left and a right, and he jumps forward to plant an uppercut on the chin. Rowe keeps his guard up to defend the follow-up blows, only for Matthews to wrap three punches around his shell to ring his bell. Rowe wobbles back, knees weak, arms heavy, but there is nothing on his sweater already. Rowe chambers and fires a right hand, getting Matthews’ attention, but Matthews quickly gathers himself and stings him with a short right from up close. Rowe pushes out a jab to calm things down and reassume his range, and Matthews pushes through it to aim two punches to the body and a right over the top that does not get through. Rowe gets off a leg kick, and he blocks a check left hook. When Rowe crashes the pocket, his guard is able to protect him from the swarming punches aimed at his head. Rowe lands another solid low kick, and he slides back to let an overhand right glance off his shoulder. Rowe intercepts a punch combination with a knee up the middle, and Matthews jabs the body in response. Matthews tries and fails to let loose with three hooks, only for Rowe to guard each one. Rowe checks a kick, and he gets driven back by a double jab. Matthews throws out another double jab to follow a right up top, and he does a similar combination that is met with a mighty Rowe right hook. Rowe connects with a clean right hand, and Matthews slings a right hook back that bounces off the dome. One last left from Matthews ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 3
The fighters bump fists before engaging, and engage they do immediately. Rowe springs into action, throwing power shots, and Matthews replies in kind. Rowe tries to push forward and take the Aussie down, and Matthews reverses him and plants him on his back. Rowe does not quit moving, sweeping “The Celtic Kid” and put himself in half guard. Rowe clings from on top, preferring to maintain position rather than open himself up with strikes. Matthews sits up and pulls Rowe back into his full guard, and he turns his back and gives it up to escape. Rowe slides off the back, and Matthews shifts on top with Rowe on his side. Matthews tries to break up the leglock around his own leg so he can pass, and the scramble results in an odd pretzel situation as Rowe uses his arm to turn Matthews over. Matthews reasserts his position while Rowe stays turned on his side, and he slithers his leg out so he can shift to three-quarter mount. Matthews pursues an arm-triangle choke, and Rowe turns the proper direction to break it up but remains stuck on his back. Matthews lines up a one-arm guillotine choke, using the grip perhaps for position rather than submission. Rowe explodes in an effort to get up, but Matthews thwarts him one last time before the fight concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (29-28 Matthews)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (29-28 Matthews)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (29-28 Matthews)

The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Philip Rowe via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Angelo picks Philip Rowe despite his poor fight IQ in the last fight where he grappled Neil Magny unnecessarily. He believes Rowe is the better striker and should win if he sticks to striking and uses his range. He trusts that the loss was a wake-up call, but is not highly confident due to Rowe's decision-making.

"I'm going to go Phil here I hate that I'm going to go Phil here I don't necessarily trust him but I am going to go with Phil"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady is not a huge fan of Philip Rowe but acknowledges he is a popular dog with a 100% finish rate. He notes Jake Matthews is inconsistent and has dropped the ball as a favorite. He thinks Rowe is live to win and keep his finish rate intact, being much bigger.

Philip Rowe wins by finish (KO/submission)
"Phil row 7,900 I'm not the biggest fan of Phil row um he seems to be a very popular dog this week"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody picks Rowe, echoing Paul's sentiment. He details Matthews' flaws: poor striking, questionable chin, and tendency to lose as a favorite. Cody notes Rowe's 80-inch reach, volume, and durability. He believes Matthews will struggle to take Rowe down and will get outpointed on the feet. Cody mentions Rowe's wins over Orion Cosce and Jason Witt, and his KO of Nico Price.

"Matthews has lost five of his seven UFC losses as the betting favorite... Rowe has an 80-inch reach... I would dig Phil Rowe."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Daniel calls Matthews 'Flake Matthews' due to mental lapses. He likes Rowe's physical tools, reach, and power, and expects him to establish his jab and land a big right hand. He sees a submission or KO possibility and plans to bet two units.

"I'm gonna go Phil row here to come out here and set back Jake Matthews"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

The host leans on Rowe's striking advantage, citing his height, reach, and improved range management. Matthews has not been using his wrestling lately, which is his path to victory. If Matthews stays on the feet, Rowe should pick him apart and possibly get a knockout. The host calls this the toughest fight to call but sides with Rowe's technical striking.

"I'm ultimately going to lean with the Phil Rowe side and lean on his striking heavy approach."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Paul picks Rowe, citing Matthews' history of losing as a favorite. He notes Matthews has lost five of his seven UFC losses as the betting favorite. Paul likes Rowe's reach advantage (80-inch reach), jab, and durability. He believes Matthews' grappling won't be as effective against Rowe's length, and Rowe can win by decision or late KO. He mentions Rowe's close fight with Neil Magny.

"Jake Matthews as a favorite in this type of spot... Phil Rowe on top of that... being able to make the fight ugly and close against Neil Magny... I'll take that plus 140."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe as his underdog of the card. He believes Jake Matthews struggles against taller, rangier opponents and that Matthews' best work is at close range. Rowe is a good grappler and has better range striking. He notes that Matthews' wins are not impressive and that Rowe has shown more. He predicts Rowe may win by clinch knees and body shots.

"I'm actually going to go with Philip bro um I think he's underrated"
LOSS vs Neil Magny
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 29 of 65 44% 109 of 159 0 of 3 0% 0 0 4:31
Philip Rowe 0 34 of 64 53% 51 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 15 33% 37 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:59
Philip Rowe 0 11 of 19 57% 16 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
2 Neil Magny 0 7 of 16 43% 29 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:56
Philip Rowe 0 6 of 12 50% 10 of 17 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:03
3 Neil Magny 0 17 of 34 50% 43 of 65 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Philip Rowe 0 17 of 33 51% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 29 of 65 44% 23 of 57 5 of 7 1 of 1 17 of 46 12 of 19 0 of 0
Philip Rowe 34 of 64 53% 17 of 43 3 of 6 14 of 15 32 of 58 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 15 33% 5 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 0
Philip Rowe 11 of 19 57% 6 of 13 1 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 16 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 7 of 16 43% 4 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 4 of 6 0 of 0
Philip Rowe 6 of 12 50% 3 of 8 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Neil Magny 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 24 6 of 10 0 of 0
Philip Rowe 17 of 33 51% 8 of 22 1 of 2 8 of 9 16 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Angelo picks Philip Rowe as the underdog, citing his speed, accuracy, and power. He notes Neil Magny is more well-rounded but lacks power and has been losing striking exchanges. He says the fight comes down to Rowe's takedown defense, which is not great, but he expects Rowe to weather early wrestling storms. He adds no bet yet, as Magny has a knack for squeaking out close decisions.

"I'm actually going to pick Ro here as the underdog because he's far more dangerous"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Big Brady picks Neil Magny, acknowledging his superior competition and well-rounded skills. He notes Rowe's takedown defense is a clear hole, and Magny should exploit it by wrestling. He has concerns about Magny's durability at 35 and history of being knocked out, but believes Magny can win a decision by controlling the fight on the ground.

"I'm gonna take Neil magni here and I'm gonna take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Cody picks Magny, emphasizing his wrestling and technical kickboxing. He notes Rowe's tendency to gas and Magny's ability to exploit takedowns. He expects Magny by decision.

Magny by decision mentioned.
"I think he can use his technical at range kickboxing pick his shots here and there then get those takedowns."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Connor sees Magny as a calm, relaxed fighter who doesn't rely on out-ranging opponents; his style is built around making opponents uncomfortable at distance and then dragging them into clinch and ground game. He notes that Philip Rowe is a classic sniper who lands one beautiful shot but can't follow up, often falling into the pocket and ending up on his back early. Connor believes Magny eats that kind of fighter for lunch, as Rowe's best round is the second but Magny builds into fights and dominates rounds two and three. He also points out that the odds are getting longer on Magny, which he sees as disrespectful given Magny's consistent level.

Odds opened at -149, now -161; Rowe opened +117, now +144. Connor notes the odds are getting longer and that Magny gets no respect.
"I can't not pick Neil here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi leans towards Philip Rowe, citing Rowe's physical advantages (longer reach, power) and Magny's history of being knocked out. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he can hurt Magny once he finds his range. He also mentions Rowe's training with high-level grapplers and his upward trajectory. However, he acknowledges Magny's experience and is not fully confident.

Might take a shot on Rowe; no bet yet.
"I might be interested in taking the shot here I might be interested I think he might have something for him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Neil Magny

The host picks Neil Magny to win by decision. He believes Magny's veteran experience, forward pressure, and clinch game will be too much for Rowe. He thinks Rowe will start confident but fade as Magny grinds him down. He notes Magny's cardio and ability to wear opponents, and expects a classic Magny performance, possibly a finish in the third round.

"I fully expect the veteransi of uh neo-magni to come through here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul picks Magny, noting his wrestling advantage and veteran savvy. He expects Magny to use takedowns and control to win a decision. He mentions he already bet Magny at -143.

Magny by decision at plus 110 mentioned.
"First bet I made this week was magni at -143."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Neil Magny

The Guru picks Neil Magny, citing his experience and craftiness. He notes that Philip Rowe has lost all his grappling competitions since 2021 and that Nico Price outlanded Rowe but lost due to being rocked. He believes Magny won't have chin issues and can outpoint Rowe at range, predicting a boring close decision 29-28.

Predicts decision win.
"I'm going to go with Neil Magna in a boring close decision 29-28"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Zane agrees with Connor that Magny is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Magny's fighting style is not reliant on out-ranging people; it's about making opponents uncomfortable and then dragging them into clinch and ground. Zane notes that Rowe is a sniper who lands one shot and can't follow up, often falling into the pocket and ending up on his back. He also points out that Rowe's best round is the second, but Magny builds into fights and dominates later rounds. Zane concludes that you either finish Magny early or he takes over, and Rowe is not the kind of fighter to do that.

Odds opened at -149, now -161; Rowe opened +117, now +144. Zane notes the odds are getting longer and that Magny gets no respect.
"Yeah, pretty simple pick for Magni."
WIN vs Niko Price
TKO (punches) R3 3:26 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 0 110 of 247 44% 150 of 293 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:29
Niko Price 0 63 of 139 45% 64 of 140 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 34 of 87 39% 36 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Niko Price 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Philip Rowe 0 34 of 85 40% 46 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Niko Price 0 17 of 40 42% 18 of 41 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:28
3 Philip Rowe 0 42 of 75 56% 68 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Niko Price 0 26 of 46 56% 26 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 110 of 247 44% 66 of 197 16 of 22 28 of 28 88 of 218 14 of 21 8 of 8
Niko Price 63 of 139 45% 49 of 123 7 of 8 7 of 8 57 of 129 6 of 7 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 34 of 87 39% 12 of 63 5 of 7 17 of 17 30 of 80 4 of 7 0 of 0
Niko Price 20 of 53 37% 12 of 44 3 of 3 5 of 6 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Philip Rowe 34 of 85 40% 20 of 68 9 of 12 5 of 5 29 of 77 5 of 8 0 of 0
Niko Price 17 of 40 42% 13 of 35 3 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Philip Rowe 42 of 75 56% 34 of 66 2 of 3 6 of 6 29 of 61 5 of 6 8 of 8
Niko Price 26 of 46 56% 24 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1 23 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Angelo picks Philip Rowe, citing his length, volume, and striking. He notes Rowe's takedown defense isn't great but Niko Price's takedown offense isn't great either. He expresses concern about Price's year off and potential hurricane impact on his training camp. He says he probably won't bet this fight because Price is dangerous and can look amazing or get caught.

Probably won't bet; mentions Price's year off and hurricane impact
"Philip Rowe is going to be the pick I'm probably not going to bet on this fight because somebody like Nico is fun is dangerous and can just come out there and just look amazing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady picks Rowe to win by knockout in the second round, citing his reach (80.5 inches), size, and power. He notes Price is hittable (47% striking defense) and unlikely to wrestle. He expects a striking battle where Rowe's length and power prevail, though he acknowledges Price is live for a knockout.

Rowe wins by KO, round 2
"I like row to win pull off the upset and knock out Nico price in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody leans towards Rowe as a live underdog, noting his reach and combinations. He thinks Price takes damage and may slow down. He prefers to bet Rowe live after likely losing the first round.

live betting on Rowe after round 1
"I'm more looking towards a live betting option for row and I wouldn't out rule I wouldn't rule out sorry uh switching the pick to Nico price seeing him at weigh-ins hearing some good interviews I could be talked into …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor also picks Niko Price, citing Price's experience and well-roundedness. He notes that Rowe has potential but hasn't shown the ability to defend takedowns while striking, and Price has consistent aspects to his game that allow him to stick to his game plan for multiple rounds.

"I'll have to pick Nico price as well. Row is the favorite here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe to knock out Niko Price. He likes Rowe's reach, straight right, and Jiu-Jitsu, and believes Price is slowing down after ACL surgery. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he will find his range and finish. He is willing to bet the underdog.

Rowe by KO
"I'm gonna go with Phil row to come out here and actually knock out the guy we love... cash this Plus 120"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

The host picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Price's experience and ability to drag opponents into a war. He thinks Price will use a grapple-heavy approach to get dominant position and finish Rowe. He notes that Rowe is still green and may not be comfortable in a chaotic fight. He likes the -140 price tag on the veteran.

Niko Price inside the distance
"I like the -140 price tag on the experienced veteran and that's probably the way that I'll be going for this matchup Nico price inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul is torn but picks Price for the show. He notes Price's durability and volume, but acknowledges Rowe's reach and combinations. He doesn't have a strong edge and won't bet it.

"for the purpose of the program I'm picking Nico price but yeah I mean I've already got like a list of things that I'm considering betting this ain't one of them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing Niko Price's poor performance against Alex Oliveira and his long layoff. He thinks Rowe's technical striking and grappling will be enough to win by TKO. He expresses frustration that Price is being fed to Rowe instead of getting a fun matchup.

Rowe by TKO
"I'm going with Philip bro"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price based on experience and resilience, noting that Price has been in more brawls against better fighters and has the option to wrestle if needed. He is hesitant because Price loses often and Rowe could win if he becomes comfortable defending takedowns while striking, but Zane hasn't seen that yet.

"I really have no choice here, but to pick Nico price because things are going to go haywire and I Nico price isn't even the most durable guy in the world, but he's very resilient."
WIN vs Jason Witt
TKO (punches) R2 2:15 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 0 8 of 22 36% 25 of 43 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:11
Jason Witt 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 3 of 11 27% 19 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:46
Jason Witt 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Philip Rowe 0 5 of 11 45% 6 of 12 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:25
Jason Witt 1 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 8 of 22 36% 5 of 15 2 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 1 1 of 1
Jason Witt 8 of 17 47% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 3 of 11 27% 2 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jason Witt 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Philip Rowe 5 of 11 45% 3 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 1
Jason Witt 6 of 10 60% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jason Witt

Angelo picks Jason Witt despite Rowe being the favorite. He notes Rowe's size and striking advantages but believes Witt's wrestling and ground control will be decisive. Witt will relentlessly pursue takedowns and maintain top pressure, likely winning a decision. Angelo acknowledges Rowe's better jiu-jitsu but thinks Witt's grinding style prevails.

"i'm going with jason witt here row is the favorite i totally get why he's the favorite he's the better striker and he's got better jiu jitsu but i think the takedowns and the elbow in ground control will be …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Witt has a history of getting knocked out and that Rowe has good BJJ to neutralize takedowns. He thinks Rowe will win by knockout in the later rounds after Witt tires. He suggests live betting Rowe after the first round.

Rowe by knockout (live bet after round 1)
"i think you're going to get a much better price here if you just take row after that first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe, citing his massive reach advantage (10 inches) and knockout power. He notes Witt has been knocked out multiple times and is slow and hittable. Levi believes Rowe will find his range and land a big right hand, potentially a knockout. He also mentions Rowe's grappling improvements and training with Rodolfo Vieira. He considers betting on Rowe at the pick 'em line.

i'm considering a bet on row here i think he comes out here and i think he starches jason witt at some point in this fight
"i think phil rose going to come out here and knock out jason witt"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Lock of the Night picks Rowe, expecting him to find a knockout after surviving early takedowns. He notes Witt's poor chin and reaction to getting hit. He likes Rowe by KO at +165.

Rowe by KO +165, Rowe inside the distance +110
"philip rowe philippro ko is kind of what i've been leaning on as my prop for this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Paul thinks Rowe will eventually catch Witt on the feet due to his reach advantage and Witt's suspect chin. He notes that Witt has been knocked out multiple times and that Rowe's takedown defense is suspect but his BJJ is good. He is confident Rowe wins by knockout.

Rowe by knockout (round 2 or 3)
"i think eventually phil roe catches him on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing his 10.5-inch reach advantage and improved grappling from training with Gordon Ryan. He notes Jason Witt has been knocked out cold before and expects Rowe to keep the fight standing and win by first-round TKO with knees. He acknowledges Witt's grappling but believes Rowe's development will neutralize it.

TKO, round 1, knees
"i'm going to trust philip bro... i think he's more explosive on the feet i believe he has something like a 10 inch reach advantage"
WIN vs Orion Cosce
TKO (punches) R2 4:21 · UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland · Jul 31, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 1 46 of 93 49% 53 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Orion Cosce 0 22 of 52 42% 51 of 82 2 of 6 33% 0 0 6:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 3 of 6 50% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Orion Cosce 0 7 of 11 63% 22 of 27 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:35
2 Philip Rowe 1 43 of 87 49% 45 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Orion Cosce 0 15 of 41 36% 29 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 46 of 93 49% 32 of 76 13 of 16 1 of 1 33 of 78 13 of 15 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 22 of 52 42% 17 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 44 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3
2 Philip Rowe 43 of 87 49% 31 of 72 12 of 15 0 of 0 31 of 73 12 of 14 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 15 of 41 36% 11 of 35 3 of 4 1 of 2 14 of 38 1 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady picks Philip Rowe over Orion Cosce. He highlights Rowe's significant 9.5-inch reach advantage and superior cardio, noting that Rowe is a better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ and slick submissions off his back. He expects Cosce to have early wrestling success but fade, allowing Rowe to secure a late finish. Brady predicts a third-round knockout for Rowe.

third round knockout
"give me a philip rowe for a uh give me a third round knockout for philip rowe here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody picks Philip Rowe as a live underdog, citing his massive reach advantage (9 inches) and tricky striking. He notes that Cosce has cardio issues and that Rowe can stay on the outside and pick him apart. Cody believes that if Rowe survives the first round, he can take over as Cosce tires. He already placed a bet on Rowe at +150.

Cody bet on Philip Rowe at +150.
"i already i that was my first bet that i made on the card i took a plus 150 on philip rowe"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2021 (fight day)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi is surprised that Cosce is a -160 favorite, as he sees this as a more even fight. He believes Rowe has significant physical advantages with his 81-inch reach and 6'4" frame, and that his jiu-jitsu training under Julian Williams and Adolfo Vieira gives him a submission threat. Levi acknowledges Rowe's vulnerability to leg kicks due to his build but hasn't seen Cosce employ that strategy. He leans on Rowe to use his physical tools and possibly find a submission or grind out a decision.

Surprised by the line; thinks Cosce should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'm not really sure you know why why the confidence so I'm gonna go with phil roe here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

Rowe has a huge reach and height advantage, slicker boxing, good movement, and enough jiu-jitsu to avoid trouble. Cosce's regional tape shows gassing and sketchy competition. Rowe's distance striking should wear Cosce down as the fight progresses. The only concern is leg kicks, but Cosce doesn't rely on them heavily. Rowe by decision is the most likely outcome.

Rowe by decision +360 (sprinkle)
"I do like Phil Roe in this spot I think he's a solid underdog... I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Paul leans towards Orion Cosce, noting his power and wrestling advantage. He believes Cosce can take Rowe down and use his strength to control the fight. However, he is concerned about Cosce's cardio and the reach disadvantage. Paul sees this as a close fight and is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot.

"i think it's dogger pass i've already got some action in on this"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce over Philip Rowe, stating that Cosce is better and pressures opponents. He notes that Rowe struggled against Gabriel Green, who pressured him, and that Cosce is a better pressure fighter. He expects Cosce to break Rowe as the rounds go on and predicts a finish in the third round by TKO.

Cosce by TKO in round 3
"i'm gonna go over ryan koski here over philip bro... i think he'll get a finish in the third round by tko"
Niko Price - Fight History
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Submission R1 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:23
Niko Price 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:23
Niko Price 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.

Chiesa by submission round 1
"I think Michael Chiesa goes out there. I think he takes down Niko Price, and I think he runs through him like a hot knife through butter."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.

"Michael Chiesa is going to get the takedowns. And when he takes him down, he's going to sub him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.

Odds: Chiesa opened -500, now -600; Price opened +375, now +425.
"I think Michael Kiesa would have beaten Nico Price at every single point."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.

"I think that Chiesa's going to be able to use that physicality, backpack Niko Price, come out here and probably get a rear naked choke."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Michael Chiesa

The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Bets under 2.5 rounds as a better alternative to moneyline.
"I think it's quite likely Chiesa will take Price down and submit him pretty quickly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.

submission, parlay piece
"I don't mind parlaying Kiesta at this number. Uh I know he's at the end of his career, this is his retirement fight, but Nico Price at this point in time is a layup fight for him to get a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.

"Chiesa wins this fight pretty... He's a parlay piece this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.

"I think Kasa wins this with his grappling, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.

Odds: Chiesa opened -500, now -600; Price opened +375, now +425.
"Not a close booking at this point price is looking slower than ever."
KO R1 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolay Veretennikov 0 19 of 30 63% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Niko Price 0 9 of 23 39% 12 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 0 19 of 30 63% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Niko Price 0 9 of 23 39% 12 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolay Veretennikov 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 6 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 21 9 of 9 0 of 0
Niko Price 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 6 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 21 9 of 9 0 of 0
Niko Price 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Niko Price
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Veretennikov (-225); Price (+185)

Round 1
A pink slip derby at 170 pounds comes next as Kazakhstan native Veretennikov (13-7, 1-3 UFC) looks to get back in the win column at the expense of the similarly skidding Price (16-9, 2 NC; 8-9, 2 NC UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni will know first who ends up prevailing, and he stands guard until needed. Late replacement Price offers a sporting tap of gloves, and it is accepted.
Price leads off with a sweeping low kick, and he leaps forward to engage, throwing hands. Veretennikov meets him in the pocket with his fists, and he ends a combo with a low kick that makes Price wince. Veretennikov lands on the Floridian cleanly upstairs, knocking him back and winding up in a clinch. Veretennikov’s lumps up the midsection with knees, setting them up when an opening presents itself to unleash them. He frames off with right hands, and Price beats him to the punch on the way to a reset. Price wades into the fray, and Veretennikov busts him in the chops with his counters. Veretennikov’s heavy hands back Price against the fence after blocking a front kick, and he smashes Price in the face with a right hand that shakes him up badly. Veretennikov appears surprised that Price’s hands dropped from the first blow, and he delivers a concussive knee to the jaw that puts Price on ice skates.
Veretennikov stands Price back up with an elbow that partially shut his lights off, and he knocks a semi-conscious Price’s head around with huge swings until an intervening Tognoni realizes that Price is completely out on his feet with one finger stuck in the cage the only thing keeping him from collapsing.
The mighty knockout is a huge feather in the cap of Veretennikov, whose roster spot might have been terminated with a defeat. Price comes to, and he does not know what happened, upset that the fight has been stopped but unsure why. He manages to come around, and he gives it up for the fighter named “Gladiator” who just deprived him of his consciousness.

The Official Result
Nikolay Veretennikov def. Niko Price R1 1:42 via KO (Elbow and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Angelo picks Nikolay Veretennikov, reasoning that he is a powerful striker who hits hard, while his opponent Jose Henrique (Niko Price) is very hittable. He acknowledges that Veretennikov has trouble with takedowns but thinks if he doesn't worry about that and just moves forward, he can win or finish the fight. He calls it a low-level fight and uses simple math: good striker vs guy who gets hit.

"I'm going to pick Nikolai here. He is the slight underdog. Neither one of these guys are very good, but let's just simple math it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans towards Niko Price as a dog, noting Veretennikov's unimpressive record and Price's toughness. He admits Price is a shell of his former self but sees a path via takedowns or durability. Cody is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm tempted to take a dog shot on Nico Price. I don't know if I'm going to have the balls to actually click that button."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Connor agrees with Zane, calling the fight terrible but picking Veretennikov. He notes that Price is a glass cannon who no longer has the speed or willingness to pull the trigger, and that Veretennikov should have this in the bag even if he doesn't press. Connor emphasizes that Price will walk onto shots.

Veretennikov opened at -325, currently -275; Price opened at +275, currently +235
"I'm picking Veretennikov, but God damn it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Paul picks Nikolay Veretennikov, citing Price's decline in durability and cardio. He notes Veretennikov's power and body work, and Price's poor takedown defense. Paul expects Veretennikov to win by knockout or decision, though the price is high.

"I think Nikolai Rednikov gets him out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Nikolay Veretennikov

The host picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Niko Price. He notes Veretennikov took Michael Morales to a split decision, though he looked iffy against Prado. He thinks Price has lost too many times, moves slow, and despite some power and athleticism, Veretennikov should win a competitive 29-28 decision.

29-28 competitive decision
"I'm going to go with Nikolay Veretennikov getting this one done by 29-28 competitive decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Zane picks Veretennikov despite calling the fight awful. He argues that Niko Price is washed up, slower, and more hittable, and that Veretennikov should win by using his reach and straight punches. Zane notes that Price can't do anything without running into a straight punch, and Veretennikov could also take him down.

Veretennikov opened at -325, currently -275; Price opened at +275, currently +235
"You gotta pick Veretennikov. You have to pick Veretennikov. Niko price can't do anything without running into a straight punch."
LOSS vs Jacobe Smith
Submission R2 4:03 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 34 of 61 55% 46 of 76 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jacobe Smith 0 46 of 74 62% 73 of 101 2 of 2 100% 1 0 5:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 19 of 37 51% 23 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jacobe Smith 0 33 of 53 62% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
2 Niko Price 0 15 of 24 62% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacobe Smith 0 13 of 21 61% 27 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 34 of 61 55% 19 of 43 4 of 7 11 of 11 27 of 49 3 of 4 4 of 8
Jacobe Smith 46 of 74 62% 39 of 66 4 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 41 2 of 2 22 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 19 of 37 51% 10 of 26 3 of 5 6 of 6 17 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 2
Jacobe Smith 33 of 53 62% 27 of 46 3 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 31 1 of 1 15 of 21
2 Niko Price 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 15 2 of 3 3 of 6
Jacobe Smith 13 of 21 61% 12 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 7 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Angelo picks Jacobe Smith because he sees him as a strong prospect with wrestling and finishing ability, while Niko Price is older, has a weak chin, and is being fed to prospects. He notes that Price is fun but past his prime, and Smith's wrestling and pace will be too much. He warns against betting such heavy favorites, saying risking $1400 to make $100 is not worth it.

Angelo mentions that props like 'by finish' or 'first round finish' might offer value, but advises against parlaying minus 1400 favorites.
"Jacob is going to be the pick. The oddsmakers know it. We know it. You can't do anything with these odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Big Brady is very confident in Jacobe Smith, describing it as a bad matchup for Niko Price. He notes Price is older, has taken a lot of damage, and is on a decline, while Smith has power and wrestling. Brady believes Smith can knock Price out on the feet or take him down and use vicious ground and pound. He predicts a first-round knockout, comparing it to the Wellmaker vs Moutinho fight.

Smith wins by first round knockout
"I got to go Smith here. I think it's going to be a first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Connor agrees, picking Smith. He notes Price is too slow and awkward, while Smith hits hard and throws clean punches. Smith should finish Price, but the odds are too steep to bet.

Odds: Price +1222, Smith -1515. Connor says 'avoid' betting.
"He should kill Nico price."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

The host expects Jacobe Smith to flatline Niko Price within the first round and a half, citing Smith's youth and power. He notes the odds are steep at minus 2000, but still predicts an early knockout finish.

early knockout finish, first round and a half, minus 2000 odds mentioned
"I'm expecting Jacobe Smith to go out there and flatline Nico Price within the first round and a half."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

The host calls this a 'big lock of the card', confidently predicting Jacobe Smith to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Smith's impressive KO debut and believes he will repeat that performance against an aging Niko Price who looked geriatric in his last fight. The host notes that Smith's grappling and power will be too much for Price.

first round TKO
"I think Jacob Smith's going to get a very very very quick finish here over Nico Price. In fact, I'm calling a first few minute TKO for Jacob Smith."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Zane picks Smith, noting Price is past his prime and has lost most recent fights. Smith is a fast, powerful wrestler with clean combinations who should sleep Price. However, Zane warns the odds are too wide to bet.

Odds: Price +1222, Smith -1515. Zane says 'basically do not bet on this fight' and 'no value to be gotten in betting those numbers on Smith.'
"So yeah, I just got to pick Jacoby Smith."
LOSS vs Themba Gorimbo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Themba Gorimbo 0 68 of 127 53% 141 of 223 7 of 9 77% 2 0 9:14
Niko Price 0 16 of 53 30% 58 of 100 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Themba Gorimbo 0 32 of 67 47% 45 of 87 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:46
Niko Price 0 6 of 17 35% 13 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Themba Gorimbo 0 32 of 53 60% 52 of 76 4 of 5 80% 0 0 1:52
Niko Price 0 9 of 31 29% 19 of 41 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:00
3 Themba Gorimbo 0 4 of 7 57% 44 of 60 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:36
Niko Price 0 1 of 5 20% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Themba Gorimbo 68 of 127 53% 44 of 97 9 of 15 15 of 15 43 of 85 6 of 13 19 of 29
Niko Price 16 of 53 30% 13 of 43 2 of 5 1 of 5 11 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Themba Gorimbo 32 of 67 47% 21 of 55 2 of 3 9 of 9 23 of 47 1 of 4 8 of 16
Niko Price 6 of 17 35% 5 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 2 4 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Themba Gorimbo 32 of 53 60% 21 of 37 6 of 11 5 of 5 16 of 33 5 of 9 11 of 11
Niko Price 9 of 31 29% 7 of 26 1 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Themba Gorimbo 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 2
Niko Price 1 of 5 20% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gorimbo (-278), Price (+225)

Round 1
One of two entries tonight in the “welterweight action fight club” will play out next, as Gorimbo (13-4, 3-1 UFC) is entering that category while Price (16-7, 2 NC; 8-7, 2 NC UFC) has been a member practically since day one. Any matchup in that section of 170-pound fighters seems to have a greater likelihood—anecdotally, with those numbers not officially tracked right now—of receiving some sort of “of the night” bonus. Both fighters could use it, as Gorimbo is famous for having seven dollars in his bank account while Price has six kids to feed. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the Octagon ranger, and when he calls for them to fight, they touch gloves. Price walks directly into a front kick when he moves to the center of the cage, and he further gets his bell rung by flying punches from Gorimbo. The Zimbabwe native lets his hands fly, and Price has to reset as he gets clipped with a left hand. Gorimbo aims two thudding leg kicks to the front leg of his foe, and when Price tries to counter with a third, Gorimbo dodges and connects with it. Gorimbo further does damage with his calf kick, and he strings together a pair of straight punches with a step-in knee to the belly. Price takes another chopping kick as he slowly advances, and Gorimbo sticks him with a right hand. Price attempts a body kick, and he gets caught with a fastball of a right hand. Price still marches ever onward, through a low kick and a one-two without flinching. Price squares up, opening him up to three punches, a leg kick and a takedown shot. “The Answer” deposits Price on his back, where he starts working with elbows and punches. Price gets stacked up when attempting an armbar, as Gorimbo punches through it to stop it from materializing. Gorimbo steps over to half guard as Price defends with a kimura sweep, and Gorimbo breaks out of it to open Price up with punches and effective elbows. Price looks to sit up, and Gorimbo hops around to take his back and get both hooks in. Price stands up, and Gorimbo hangs on his foe’s back and grips hold of a neck crank. Price responds by slamming Gorimbo on his head, and Gorimbo rides it out to secure a body triangle. From an awkward angle, the two punch one another until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo

Round 2
Price starts out the second round marching Gorimbo down, putting a jab and a front kick in his face early. Gorimbo chains punches together in response, with two up top and then a few to the body. Price retaliates with a body kick, and he catches Gorimbo coming in but still eats a few back. Gorimbo winds up with his power calf kick, and he plants the ball of his foot on Price’s sternum. Price punches his way into a clinch, and Gorimbo shakes him up with left hooks and uppercuts up close before tackling Price to the mat. Price turns to his stomach to survive and stand back up, all while eating clubbing left hands. Price gets to his knees and then back upright, and Gorimbo hurriedly mat returns him. Price once more stands, and Gorimbo is imposing his full weight on him, kneeing him in the breadbasket. They trade knees from close proximity, and Gorimbo tries for a trip on the inside but does not land it. Price turns him around as they dirty box with one another, and Price attacks a double that is easily stifled. Price goes after another double, transitioning to a single as Gorimbo’s hips are wide. Gorimbo turns the corner and knees Price in the chest, and they get back upright and split up. Price stalks a potentially tiring Gorimbo down and slugs him in the chops, getting his attention with power punches until they get clinched. Gorimbo responds with a knee on the break, and Price is out of range. Price marches forward to connect with a one-two, and Gorimbo slaps his front leg and then jabs him to the body with a front kick. Price meanders forward, left eye bloodied, and he walks into a takedown shot. Gorimbo pushes through his hips, tosses aside a leglock and starts smacking Price upside the head. Price stands up, and Gorimbo wrenches him down by imposing his body weight on him. As Price defends with a kimura, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo

Round 3
The welterweights reach Round 3, tired and beat up but still ready for another five minutes. Gorimbo leads off with two chopping kicks, hits a third and then goes up top with his other leg. Price sees it coming in the nick of time and defends a subsequent shot with a guillotine choke. Gorimbo powers through the choke to slam Price on his back, opening up with ground-and-pound as Price tries to push off the fence with his foot. Gorimbo controls his man while slinging short right hands, keeping Price trapped between the corner of the floor and the wall. Price again tries to push off the fence, this time tugging on the links with his toes. Dean calls him on this, and Price stops. Price explodes to sit up, only for Gorimbo grind him back down while keeping Price’s right leg laced to stop him from escaping. Price kicks his foe off his chest, and Gorimbo stands and backs up. Price throws a hard kick to the calf from his back, and Gorimbo allows him to do this so he can dive in to reclaim top position. Gorimbo draws further blood with slow but methodical strikes, stepping over to half guard on the other side. Price times this guard pass to burst upright with 55 seconds left in the round. Gorimbo cinches his hands around the waist to dump Price to the floor. Price stands up again through sheer force of will, and Gorimbo hangs on from his back and slides off. Gorimbo looks for an unorthodox banana split, Suloev stretch or kneebar, and time expires before he can get anything.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)

The Official Result
Themba Gorimbo def. Niko Price via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Angelo picks Themba Gorimbo, acknowledging that picking against Niko Price is difficult due to his unpredictability. However, he believes Gorimbo is the overall better fighter with a good combination of technical striking, wrestling, and the ability to push forward. He notes that Price can win on any given day but that Gorimbo's skills should prevail.

"I think TBA is just the overall better fighter and I think he gets it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Big Brady picks Themba Gorimbo to win by first-round knockout. He notes Gorimbo is improving rapidly while Price is diminishing, having been knocked out by Robbie Lawler in 30 seconds and looking poor in recent fights. He questions whether Gorimbo will stand and bang or wrestle, but hopes for an exciting finish. He thinks the line is wild at -375 but still picks Gorimbo. He mentions Gorimbo could also control Price on the ground like he did against Brahimaj.

Gorimbo by first-round knockout
"I'll pick thema to win I guess the the question I have is is how is thema going to approach this fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Niko Price has looked bad for years and has no way to stop a takedown. He points out that Price's last funky knockout was in 2019 and he has since struggled. Connor believes Gorimbo's wrestling, though not great, is enough to control Price.

"Yeah, like how are you gonna stop somebody from just going out and taking you down? You've never stopped that before"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel is unimpressed with Gorimbo's skills, calling him slow and not a future top-15 guy, but he acknowledges that Price may be too washed to capitalize. He loves Price's ability off his back but is not confident enough to pick him. Daniel decides to pass on betting this fight, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"This is dog or pass... I don't want to plant my flags on a washed up fighter like Nico Price."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

The host is surprised the line is so wide, as Gorimbo is on a three-fight winning streak but not all that good. Price has veteran experience and durability; if he holds up early, Gorimbo will struggle to grind him out. Price has a better gas tank and should pull away late, finishing in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I think that eventually leads to a second or third round finish for the big underdog here in Niko Price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

The MMA Guru picks Themba Gorimbo, citing his speed advantage on the feet and Price's suspect chin. He notes that Gorimbo is on a three-fight win streak and is being given 'layups' by the UFC. He expects Gorimbo to win by TKO on the feet, as Price is too slow and doesn't have the grappling to take Gorimbo down.

TKO
"I'm going to go with them gimbo here over ni price just way faster on the feet I'm actually going to say he gets it done by TKO on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Zane thinks Gorimbo can blanket Price with his wrestling, even though Gorimbo's control is poor and he often stalls in ugly positions. He notes that Price has looked washed for years, lacks preventative skills, and has no way to stop takedowns. Zane acknowledges it's not much but believes Gorimbo can tie Price up and slow him down.

"Garimbo I guess yeah, I think them but Garimbo could just go out and blanket him"
WIN vs Alex Morono
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 108 of 224 48% 138 of 259 5 of 5 100% 0 1 3:37
Alex Morono 0 96 of 210 45% 111 of 225 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 16 of 51 31% 21 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:10
Alex Morono 0 34 of 72 47% 40 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Niko Price 0 34 of 65 52% 50 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:04
Alex Morono 0 21 of 43 48% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Niko Price 0 58 of 108 53% 67 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Alex Morono 0 41 of 95 43% 41 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 108 of 224 48% 78 of 181 24 of 33 6 of 10 78 of 182 9 of 19 21 of 23
Alex Morono 96 of 210 45% 74 of 184 13 of 15 9 of 11 91 of 204 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 16 of 51 31% 12 of 45 4 of 5 0 of 1 14 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 2
Alex Morono 34 of 72 47% 26 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 5 32 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Niko Price 34 of 65 52% 22 of 48 8 of 12 4 of 5 16 of 44 3 of 5 15 of 16
Alex Morono 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Niko Price 58 of 108 53% 44 of 88 12 of 16 2 of 4 48 of 91 6 of 12 4 of 5
Alex Morono 41 of 95 43% 29 of 81 8 of 9 4 of 5 39 of 92 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono, ignoring their first fight because it was a while ago and both have evolved. He believes Morono is the more technical striker and better grappler, and that his awkward striking will avoid Niko Price's power. He notes Price is always dangerous but thinks Morono's well-roundedness will prevail.

"I think morono is just the better fighter I think he's the more technical Striker he certainly is the better Grappler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady thinks this fight ends inside the distance with someone getting knocked out. He leans toward Alex Morono getting the knockout, citing Niko Price's shot durability and recent KO loss to Robbie Lawler. He compares it to Morono's KO of Donald Cerrone. However, he notes Price has power and a 90% finish rate, so he will play both sides. He considers Price a live dog at 7,300.

fight doesn't go to decision (-200), Alex Morono wins by knockout
"I think it's probably is marona going out there and getting The Knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans toward Price, noting his volume and power. He acknowledges Price's durability is questionable but believes Morono's low volume and lack of power make Price live. Cody mentions Price's previous KO of Morono in 2017 and thinks Price can do it again. He warns that Morono may wait for a perfect shot, but Price's pressure could overwhelm him.

"I'm gonna go with the Niko Price direction too... Price has got sickening volume... Morono is not that guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel recalls Morono's struggle against Court McGee and notes Price's power. He thinks it's a dog or pass situation and picks Price to win again.

"I'm gonna go Nico price here to beat him a second time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Morono dominated before getting caught. Price's chin is compromised after recent knockouts, and his confidence is low. Morono's stick-and-move style, power, and defensive jiu-jitsu should allow him to land big shots and finish Price, likely by knockout in the second round.

round 2 knockout
"I think we'll see morono capitalize on that... I think it's ultimately going to be a big shot on the chin that puts Nico price out here so give me Alex morono second round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul leans toward Price, despite acknowledging Price's durability may be fading. He notes Price has sickening volume and power, and Morono's recent performance against Court McGee was poor. Paul thinks Price can outwork Morono and possibly land a KO. He mentions Price's power is the last thing to go and that Morono may be over the hill.

"Everything in my being I know Niko Price is kind of washed but it's like how does Alex Morono lose fights? He gets knocked out... I'm tempted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, citing Niko Price's recent chin issues and inactivity. He notes that Price has lost his last two by TKO and looked scripted against Lawler. Morono has been more active and consistent, though he didn't look great in his last fight. He predicts Morono by decision, possibly TKO.

Morono by decision
"I'm going to go with Alex morono here um morono by decision TKO maybe but I'll say decision"
LOSS vs Robbie Lawler
KO (punches) R1 0:38 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Niko Price

Angelo picks Price but is hesitant, calling it a tricky betting spot. He notes Price is younger and less beat up, with similar wild style to Lawler. Lawler is declining and likely to retire. He expects a fun slugfest but is unsure about a finish, and fears the round line might be a trap. He does not place a bet.

No bet, unsure about finish
"Nico price is going to be the pick here he has had some of the biggest line movement on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Big Brady leans towards Robbie Lawler to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Niko Price has looked bad lately, taking damage and battling injuries, while Lawler still has power and showed life against Brian Barbarena. He believes both will stand and bang, and Lawler lands first. He is surprised by the line (Price -260) and thinks Lawler is very live. He mentions that Price blocks punches with his face and has been knocked out recently.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Robbie Lawler to get it done I'm gonna take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Price but doesn't like the -260 price. He thinks Lawler is past his prime and has been finished recently. He considers the under 2.5 rounds as a better bet, expecting a finish. He notes both fighters have trained together at ATT, which could affect the fight.

Under 2.5 rounds (-155 to -160), Price by KO/TKO
"Nico price should be the favorites minus 260 is is definitely not getting my my money but he will be my pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is not built for an aging fighter; his reliance on being in the pocket and taking risks is no longer sustainable. Price is a chaotic puncher who can absorb damage and keep coming, and Lawler's decline in durability and cardio makes him vulnerable. Connor notes that Lawler could try to be more methodical but ultimately the other shoe has dropped.

Same odds commentary as Zane; Connor agrees with the betting line.
"I'm not going to pick him either. At this point, the problems are so compounding for Lawler."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Price, citing his youth and improved volume in recent fights. He notes that Lawler, at 41, is a step slower and has shown a tendency to fade in fights. Levi acknowledges that either fighter could get finished, but believes Price's higher output will allow him to pull away down the stretch. He also mentions that Price has shown good grappling defense and attacks from bottom, which could be a factor if Lawler takes him down. Levi expresses a desire to see Lawler win in his retirement fight but is not counting on it.

"I kind of leaned towards Nico besides the youth is what I was talking about these last few fights he's been putting up more output."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Niko Price

James picks Niko Price to win by knockout. He believes Lawler is washed, citing his performance against Nick Diaz where he was touched up. He trusts Price's durability and power more than Lawler's at this stage. He does not advocate betting Price at -260 moneyline, but likes the knockout prop. He notes Price has been finished before but thinks he will get the KO.

Niko Price wins by KO
"I air on the side that Nico price knocks out Robbie Lawler"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Price has youth, speed, and power advantages, and can outwork Lawler late. Lawler still has technical striking and power early, but his durability and pace are questionable. The fight likely ends in a knockout, with Price finishing Lawler in the later rounds. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me a fight doesn't go to the decision as my favorite prop for this fight favorite prediction for this fight but I'm gonna go with the younger fighter here and Nicole price to get his hand raised by TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul picks Price, acknowledging Lawler's legendary career but noting he is 41 and not the same fighter. He thinks Price's volume will be too much. He mentions Lawler's recent losses and that he has been fighting for decades. He says he would feel happy if Lawler wins but his bank account prefers Price.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I gotta go with Nico price and if Robbie was a spring want to knock him out like inside my heart I'd feel happy the bank account not the match"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price to win by KO in the third round. He believes Lawler has lost his pain tolerance and finishing ability, while Price storms forward in later rounds. He cites Price's performances against Michael Pereira and Luke Jumeau as evidence of his late-round pressure, and notes the age and reach advantage for Price.

wins by KO in the third round
"we're gonna see Nico price get a KO win in the third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is built on narrow margins and he is declining in durability, cardio, and vision. Price is a messy but powerful puncher who can absorb punishment and land a wild shot as Lawler slows down. Zane notes that Lawler could look good early but will likely get caught, and he hopes Lawler wins but cannot pick him.

Lawler opened at +218, currently +221; Price opened at -252, currently -256. Zane says 'you just got to assume everybody should be betting on Niko Price here.'
"I'm going to pick Niko Price and I'm going to feel terrible about it."
LOSS vs Philip Rowe
TKO (punches) R3 3:26 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 0 110 of 247 44% 150 of 293 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:29
Niko Price 0 63 of 139 45% 64 of 140 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 34 of 87 39% 36 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Niko Price 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Philip Rowe 0 34 of 85 40% 46 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Niko Price 0 17 of 40 42% 18 of 41 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:28
3 Philip Rowe 0 42 of 75 56% 68 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Niko Price 0 26 of 46 56% 26 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 110 of 247 44% 66 of 197 16 of 22 28 of 28 88 of 218 14 of 21 8 of 8
Niko Price 63 of 139 45% 49 of 123 7 of 8 7 of 8 57 of 129 6 of 7 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 34 of 87 39% 12 of 63 5 of 7 17 of 17 30 of 80 4 of 7 0 of 0
Niko Price 20 of 53 37% 12 of 44 3 of 3 5 of 6 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Philip Rowe 34 of 85 40% 20 of 68 9 of 12 5 of 5 29 of 77 5 of 8 0 of 0
Niko Price 17 of 40 42% 13 of 35 3 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Philip Rowe 42 of 75 56% 34 of 66 2 of 3 6 of 6 29 of 61 5 of 6 8 of 8
Niko Price 26 of 46 56% 24 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1 23 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Angelo picks Philip Rowe, citing his length, volume, and striking. He notes Rowe's takedown defense isn't great but Niko Price's takedown offense isn't great either. He expresses concern about Price's year off and potential hurricane impact on his training camp. He says he probably won't bet this fight because Price is dangerous and can look amazing or get caught.

Probably won't bet; mentions Price's year off and hurricane impact
"Philip Rowe is going to be the pick I'm probably not going to bet on this fight because somebody like Nico is fun is dangerous and can just come out there and just look amazing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady picks Rowe to win by knockout in the second round, citing his reach (80.5 inches), size, and power. He notes Price is hittable (47% striking defense) and unlikely to wrestle. He expects a striking battle where Rowe's length and power prevail, though he acknowledges Price is live for a knockout.

Rowe wins by KO, round 2
"I like row to win pull off the upset and knock out Nico price in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody leans towards Rowe as a live underdog, noting his reach and combinations. He thinks Price takes damage and may slow down. He prefers to bet Rowe live after likely losing the first round.

live betting on Rowe after round 1
"I'm more looking towards a live betting option for row and I wouldn't out rule I wouldn't rule out sorry uh switching the pick to Nico price seeing him at weigh-ins hearing some good interviews I could be talked into …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor also picks Niko Price, citing Price's experience and well-roundedness. He notes that Rowe has potential but hasn't shown the ability to defend takedowns while striking, and Price has consistent aspects to his game that allow him to stick to his game plan for multiple rounds.

"I'll have to pick Nico price as well. Row is the favorite here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe to knock out Niko Price. He likes Rowe's reach, straight right, and Jiu-Jitsu, and believes Price is slowing down after ACL surgery. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he will find his range and finish. He is willing to bet the underdog.

Rowe by KO
"I'm gonna go with Phil row to come out here and actually knock out the guy we love... cash this Plus 120"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

The host picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Price's experience and ability to drag opponents into a war. He thinks Price will use a grapple-heavy approach to get dominant position and finish Rowe. He notes that Rowe is still green and may not be comfortable in a chaotic fight. He likes the -140 price tag on the veteran.

Niko Price inside the distance
"I like the -140 price tag on the experienced veteran and that's probably the way that I'll be going for this matchup Nico price inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul is torn but picks Price for the show. He notes Price's durability and volume, but acknowledges Rowe's reach and combinations. He doesn't have a strong edge and won't bet it.

"for the purpose of the program I'm picking Nico price but yeah I mean I've already got like a list of things that I'm considering betting this ain't one of them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing Niko Price's poor performance against Alex Oliveira and his long layoff. He thinks Rowe's technical striking and grappling will be enough to win by TKO. He expresses frustration that Price is being fed to Rowe instead of getting a fun matchup.

Rowe by TKO
"I'm going with Philip bro"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price based on experience and resilience, noting that Price has been in more brawls against better fighters and has the option to wrestle if needed. He is hesitant because Price loses often and Rowe could win if he becomes comfortable defending takedowns while striking, but Zane hasn't seen that yet.

"I really have no choice here, but to pick Nico price because things are going to go haywire and I Nico price isn't even the most durable guy in the world, but he's very resilient."
WIN vs Alex Oliveira
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 65 of 112 58% 83 of 131 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:14
Alex Oliveira 0 64 of 116 55% 108 of 167 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 7 of 17 41% 15 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 16 of 22 72% 34 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:48
2 Niko Price 0 19 of 35 54% 29 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:43
Alex Oliveira 0 14 of 26 53% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Niko Price 0 39 of 60 65% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Alex Oliveira 0 34 of 68 50% 53 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 65 of 112 58% 31 of 72 17 of 23 17 of 17 56 of 99 2 of 2 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 64 of 116 55% 37 of 83 7 of 11 20 of 22 45 of 93 2 of 2 17 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 7 of 17 41% 3 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 22 72% 9 of 14 0 of 1 7 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 7 of 8
2 Niko Price 19 of 35 54% 9 of 25 4 of 4 6 of 6 12 of 24 0 of 0 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 14 of 26 53% 6 of 16 1 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Niko Price 39 of 60 65% 19 of 34 12 of 18 8 of 8 39 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 34 of 68 50% 22 of 53 6 of 8 6 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.

more on Alex Oliveira in monkey knife fight slates
"i am gonna pick oliveira here i assume that is veteran savvy he'll fight a smart fight not succumb to his instincts not get sucked into god knows what sloppy war"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.

Price inside the distance (KO or submission)
"give me a price give me price to win inside the distance i think he does finish oliveira"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.

"minus 165 i got to go with niko price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.

fight of the night candidate
"nico's a guy i'd rather lay a dog price on unless it's guaranteed that this is a first round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.

Price by KO +150, under 2.5 rounds -145
"I like price here i like price i'm gonna take him by ko as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i would have to go with nico price in this spot even though it's -165"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.

Price by TKO in round 3
"i'm going with nico price tko in the third round"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Angelo picks Philip Rowe, citing his length, volume, and striking. He notes Rowe's takedown defense isn't great but Niko Price's takedown offense isn't great either. He expresses concern about Price's year off and potential hurricane impact on his training camp. He says he probably won't bet this fight because Price is dangerous and can look amazing or get caught.

Probably won't bet; mentions Price's year off and hurricane impact
"Philip Rowe is going to be the pick I'm probably not going to bet on this fight because somebody like Nico is fun is dangerous and can just come out there and just look amazing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady picks Rowe to win by knockout in the second round, citing his reach (80.5 inches), size, and power. He notes Price is hittable (47% striking defense) and unlikely to wrestle. He expects a striking battle where Rowe's length and power prevail, though he acknowledges Price is live for a knockout.

Rowe wins by KO, round 2
"I like row to win pull off the upset and knock out Nico price in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody leans towards Rowe as a live underdog, noting his reach and combinations. He thinks Price takes damage and may slow down. He prefers to bet Rowe live after likely losing the first round.

live betting on Rowe after round 1
"I'm more looking towards a live betting option for row and I wouldn't out rule I wouldn't rule out sorry uh switching the pick to Nico price seeing him at weigh-ins hearing some good interviews I could be talked into it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor also picks Niko Price, citing Price's experience and well-roundedness. He notes that Rowe has potential but hasn't shown the ability to defend takedowns while striking, and Price has consistent aspects to his game that allow him to stick to his game plan for multiple rounds.

"I'll have to pick Nico price as well. Row is the favorite here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe to knock out Niko Price. He likes Rowe's reach, straight right, and Jiu-Jitsu, and believes Price is slowing down after ACL surgery. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he will find his range and finish. He is willing to bet the underdog.

Rowe by KO
"I'm gonna go with Phil row to come out here and actually knock out the guy we love... cash this Plus 120"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

The host picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Price's experience and ability to drag opponents into a war. He thinks Price will use a grapple-heavy approach to get dominant position and finish Rowe. He notes that Rowe is still green and may not be comfortable in a chaotic fight. He likes the -140 price tag on the veteran.

Niko Price inside the distance
"I like the -140 price tag on the experienced veteran and that's probably the way that I'll be going for this matchup Nico price inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul is torn but picks Price for the show. He notes Price's durability and volume, but acknowledges Rowe's reach and combinations. He doesn't have a strong edge and won't bet it.

"for the purpose of the program I'm picking Nico price but yeah I mean I've already got like a list of things that I'm considering betting this ain't one of them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing Niko Price's poor performance against Alex Oliveira and his long layoff. He thinks Rowe's technical striking and grappling will be enough to win by TKO. He expresses frustration that Price is being fed to Rowe instead of getting a fun matchup.

Rowe by TKO
"I'm going with Philip bro"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price based on experience and resilience, noting that Price has been in more brawls against better fighters and has the option to wrestle if needed. He is hesitant because Price loses often and Rowe could win if he becomes comfortable defending takedowns while striking, but Zane hasn't seen that yet.

"I really have no choice here, but to pick Nico price because things are going to go haywire and I Nico price isn't even the most durable guy in the world, but he's very resilient."