vs
-480 +440
UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 42
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jonathan Pearce
5.12 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.32 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
5.02 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Darren Elkins
3.4 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
3.34 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.87 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Jonathan Pearce
Moneyline
BetRivers -480
KO/TKO
BetMGM +175
Submission
BetRivers +410
Decision
BetRivers +220
Darren Elkins
Moneyline
FanDuel +440
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1600
Submission
DraftKings +1200
Decision
FanDuel +950
Jonathan Pearce - Fight History
LOSS vs Pat Sabatini
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:06 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 2 of 2 100% 32 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Pearce 0 3 of 5 60% 19 of 25 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 2 of 2 100% 32 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Pearce 0 3 of 5 60% 19 of 25 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Pearce 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Pearce 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pearce (-130), Sabatini (+110)

Round 1
Grapplers enter the Octagon in what should be a fun stylistic clash. On a rare losing streak, Pearce (14-6, 5-3 UFC) has his back against the wall, but the same might be said for Sabatini (18-5, 5-2 UFC), who has dropped two of three. Someone will turn things around in the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Chris Tognoni will follow them every step of the way. Before throwing hands, “JSP” walks over to the other corner to deliver a friendly fist bump. Pearce takes to the center of the cage, and they clash body kicks at the same time. As they tangle up, Sabatini manages to sneak around and grab Pearce from behind, where he hops on his back to take the form of a mean-spirited backpack. Sabatini locks a body triangle around the waist, slugging his left hand around the raised guard of his foe. Pearce leans against the wall to relieve himself of some of the extra weight, and he turns his shoulder to sling Sabatini off of him. The Pennsylvanian turns the corner to get his arms around Pearce once more, and “JSP” is warned for fence grabs to keep himself on his feet. Rules are mere suggestions in the sport of MMA. Sabatini scoops up Pearce’s legs and steps over him to ground him, and Pearce is warned for elbowing the spine and attempting 12-6 elbows—these will be allowed next month. Pearce uses a butterfly guard to keep Sabatini from establishing a more traditional top position, only for Sabatini to smother him and move to half guard. Sabatini steps over to three-quarter mount, hunting for a choke when Pearce turns the wrong direction. Sabatini looks for another submission as Pearce gets to his knees, and Sabatini’s body triangle is wrapped firmly around the ribs. Pearce stands up and elbows Sabatini’s thigh to try to break up the body lock.
Sabatini leans to add his weight to different places on the back, and he slithers his forearm beneath the chin and fastens a nasty rear-naked choke. Pearce’s head turns a brilliant shade of red, and he thinks about going out on his shield but elects to fight another day and taps out.
Sabatini releases the lock and walks to the center of the cage, letting out one triumphant shout before calming himself. Sabatini tries his best to stay cool, but cannot help but flip around the cage, bellowing and fist-pumping in celebration.

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Jonathan Pearce R1 4:06 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, citing his relentless wrestling pressure and awareness of Sabatini's jiu-jitsu. He notes that Sabatini hasn't improved his skills since entering the UFC and that Pearce's non-stop takedown attempts will be key. Angelo also thinks Pearce can have success on the feet, as Sabatini's striking is technical but lacks head movement. He mentions he placed a half-unit bet on Pearce at -131.

Bet half a unit at -131
"I think Jonathan Pierce wins this fight... threw a little bit of a half a unit on him at minus 131."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Jonathan Pearce to win by TKO in the second round. He considers this one of his favorite fights on the card, noting both have paths: Sabatini via submission (Pearce has been submitted three times), but Pearce via knockout (Sabatini has been knocked out by Diego Lopes, Damon Jackson, and dropped by Jamall Emmers). He worries about Sabatini's durability and cardio, and believes Pearce's pace will break him down. Despite Pearce potentially getting into bad spots, Brady trusts his ability to fight out of them.

Pearce by TKO in round 2
"I'm leading Jonathan Pierce here and I think he wins this fight via TKO in the second round"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pearce's striking is all fencing and he cannot keep opponents down. He points out that Pearce lost to David Onama despite having control time, and that Sabatini is a better grappler who can win if he gets top position. Connor is surprised Sabatini is the underdog.

"Yeah, I agree"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel thinks Pearce is more well-rounded and has better volume on the feet, but he acknowledges Sabatini's grinding wrestling and durability. He is not confident because Sabatini could easily grind out a win. Daniel leans toward Pearce to outwork him but admits he wouldn't be surprised by a Sabatini decision.

"I'll lean JSP to outwork him... I'm not confident."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Pearce is on a two-fight losing streak but looked good in his last fight against David Onama even in defeat. He should use defensive grappling to keep the fight standing and put a pace on Sabatini, who is uncomfortable in the striking realm. Pearce will keep it upright, push the pace, and finish Sabatini in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"look for a Pierce to keep this fight upright push a pace on Sabatini eventually break him and finish him in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini, highlighting his technical grappling edge over Jonathan Pearce. He notes that Pearce is tough with good cardio but makes mistakes in grappling, often losing position. Sabatini has good submissions and control, and the Guru believes he can submit Pearce. He acknowledges Pearce could TKO Sabatini due to a suspect chin, but favors Sabatini's grappling.

submission win
"I'm actually going to go with Pat sabatini here over Jonathan Pierce... I think that Pat satini actually has a grappling Edge over Jonathan Pierce"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Zane thinks Sabatini will win because he is a more willing and confident striker, though both are stiff. He notes Sabatini has paid for trying to do other things and will just go for takedowns. Zane points out that Pearce has poor control time (23%) and cannot keep opponents down, while Sabatini has 52% control time. He believes Sabatini can get takedowns and win on the ground.

"I got to take Sabatini"
LOSS vs David Onama
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
David Onama 0 57 of 129 44% 87 of 165 5 of 14 35% 1 1 4:49
Jonathan Pearce 0 58 of 104 55% 66 of 115 0 of 1 0% 1 5 2:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 David Onama 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:50
Jonathan Pearce 0 14 of 23 60% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:49
2 David Onama 0 14 of 18 77% 29 of 37 3 of 3 100% 1 1 3:16
Jonathan Pearce 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 3 0:36
3 David Onama 0 28 of 70 40% 43 of 87 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:43
Jonathan Pearce 0 39 of 71 54% 42 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
David Onama 57 of 129 44% 37 of 102 13 of 19 7 of 8 44 of 114 1 of 1 12 of 14
Jonathan Pearce 58 of 104 55% 50 of 94 6 of 8 2 of 2 54 of 99 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 David Onama 15 of 41 36% 6 of 28 6 of 9 3 of 4 12 of 37 0 of 0 3 of 4
Jonathan Pearce 14 of 23 60% 11 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 2 12 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 David Onama 14 of 18 77% 10 of 13 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
Jonathan Pearce 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 David Onama 28 of 70 40% 21 of 61 5 of 7 2 of 2 27 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jonathan Pearce 39 of 71 54% 35 of 66 4 of 5 0 of 0 37 of 68 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo has a half-unit bet on Jonathan Pearce at -140, beating the line. He attributes the pick solely to wrestling: Pearce is a relentless wrestler who averages almost six takedowns per fight. He believes David Onama, a good kickboxer, will struggle to stop the takedowns, as Nate Landwehr was able to take him down. He notes Pearce dominated his last fight before a submission loss due to showboating, but expects him to dominate here.

Bet: 0.5 units at -140
"Jonathan Pierce is going to be the pick I have a half a unit bet on him I got him at minus 140"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
David Onama

Cody picks Onama as an underdog, citing his reach and striking advantage. He notes that judges score damage over control time, and if Onama can get back to his feet after takedowns, he can win rounds with strikes. He sees this as close to a 50/50 fight.

"I'll go with onama what about you"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel likes Pearce's high pace, cardio, and improved striking, but notes he's inconsistent and sticks his neck into guillotines. He thinks Pearce can grind out a win via takedowns and top control, but acknowledges Onama's power and heart make him dangerous. He leans Pearce but calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

"I'll stick with JSP I like Pierce a lot just in general"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Pearce has a dominant grappling style and should be able to nullify Onama's power punching by taking him down and keeping him in uncomfortable positions. Onama has shown defensive grappling improvements but may still struggle with Pearce's smothering style. I lean Pearce by decision, but Onama could find a finish late if Pearce slows down.

"I think that will see a better version of Jonathan Pierce here but still leaning on that grapple heavy style to nullify David ama's power punching style"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Paul picks Pearce, arguing his wrestling and top control will be decisive. He notes Pearce's chain wrestling and ability to improve position, and believes Onama's takedown defense is questionable. He expects a grinding decision win for Pearce.

"sign me up with st Pierce to get the why would think a narrow is type decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
David Onama

The MMA Guru picks David Onama as an underdog. He criticizes Jonathan Pearce's striking as atrocious and lacking hand-eye coordination. He praises Onama's speed, grappling defense, and cardio, noting his KO of Gabriel Santos and competitive fight with Mason Jones. He predicts Onama will catch Pearce with a straight right in the second or third round for a TKO.

TKO in the second or third round
"I'm going to go David onama as the underdog"
Submission (ninja choke) R2 3:54 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanderson Brito 0 14 of 16 87% 81 of 96 1 of 4 25% 0 1 6:15
Jonathan Pearce 0 8 of 20 40% 33 of 47 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanderson Brito 0 12 of 14 85% 43 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:28
Jonathan Pearce 0 8 of 19 42% 21 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:58
2 Joanderson Brito 0 2 of 2 100% 38 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:47
Jonathan Pearce 0 0 of 1 0% 12 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanderson Brito 14 of 16 87% 6 of 6 2 of 4 6 of 6 3 of 4 7 of 8 4 of 4
Jonathan Pearce 8 of 20 40% 4 of 15 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 12 2 of 3 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanderson Brito 12 of 14 85% 4 of 4 2 of 4 6 of 6 3 of 4 7 of 8 2 of 2
Jonathan Pearce 8 of 19 42% 4 of 14 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 12 2 of 3 2 of 4
2 Joanderson Brito 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jonathan Pearce 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joanderson Brito vs. Jonathan Pearce
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pearce (-130), Brito (+110)

Round 1
A potentially violent featherweight encounter rounds out this long preliminary slate. Winner of five straight, “JSP” Pearce (14-4, 5-1 UFC) will be in for a fight against the hard-charging Brito (15-3-1, 3-1 UFC). Referee Herb Dean may have his hands full for this one, although there is a sporting glove touch before it begins. Pearce lets loose with a kick to start things off, and Brito slings a right hand in response. Pearce shoots for a takedown, and Brito defends the double with a guillotine choke. Brito turns his foe around and keeps tightly pressed against him, and he starts digging right hands to the body as Pearce shakes his head. Brito lifts Pearce clean off the ground and slams him down, and he instantly lands in side control and starts slugging Pearce in the face with left hands. A bit too excited, Brito jumps over and looks to take a scrambling Pearce’s back, but he falls off the back and lands on his own back. Pearce lines him up for a solid right hand, and he attempts to set up a guillotine choke when Brito fights his way up. Brito clubs Pearce in the temple on the break, and he chases after Pearce throwing haymakers. Pearce responds with a body kick and a double, and Brito stops it and backs himself against the wall. Pearce redoubles his effort to take the fight down, and he is stonewalled but pressing the Brazilian against the wall. Brito slugs Pearce in the belly a few times as they turn one another around while clinched. Pearce claims that Brito grabbed his cup, as Brito tried to defend from a takedown. Pearce falls to his back in search of an armbar, and Brito stacks Pearce up to break out of the submission setup. “JSP” hunts for a triangle, and Brito lifts him up and slams him down to stop that as well. Pearce jumps back to his feet and looks for a takedown, and he sneaks in two uppercuts and dodges a windmilling right hand before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pearce
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pearce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pearce

Round 2
The fists are bumped, and Pearce dives forward to hit a single in the opening seconds. Pearce lands on half guard and starts slamming down elbows. Pearce steps over into mount for a moment, and Brito bucks and fights off an arm-triangle set up to drag Pearce back to guard. Brito twists and bucks, but Pearce gladly grinds on his opponent to wear him down. “JSP” continues holding Brito down, landing sporadic shots, and the two start talking to one another. Pearce tells him to get up and do something, and Brito tries to explode out but his power is not what it was in the previous round. Pearce rides and lands right hands, and Brito laughs at him for his feeble strikes while irritated he is being held down. Brito scoots his way to the wall on one knee, and he works his way up.
Out of nowhere, “Tubarao” snatches up a ninja choke with his back still against the wall, and it is shockingly tight. Pearce falls to his side to wriggle out, and Brito cranks down hard on it with his chest pressed tightly. Pearce starts tapping as Brito completes the submission
, and the stunning comeback has been completed by the powerhouse Brazilian.

The Official Result
Joanderson Brito def. Jonathan Pearce R2 3:54 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, citing his insane wrestling pressure and ability to take down Joanderson Brito. He notes Brito is a dangerous striker but expects Pearce to dive at legs immediately. He expresses some hesitation due to the Grant Dawson knockout, but still picks Pearce.

Odds comment: minus 150 favorite feels about right; mentions potential bet but may pass due to risk
"Jonathan's going to be the pick here because of that wrestling pressure but uh he might get Grant Dawson and just absolutely folded with a a lazy jab"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Big Brady calls this his favorite fight on the card. He thinks Brito is very live for a first-round knockout or submission because Pearce is very hitable and leaves himself in bad spots on the mat. He notes Pearce has great pressure and cardio but Brito has power and submission skills. He predicts Brito wins by first-round knockout, but acknowledges if it goes to the second round, Pearce takes over.

"I'll take Jo and toitu to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Cody picks Joanderson Brito as a slight underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes Brito's power and physicality, and believes he can catch Pearce with something. He acknowledges Pearce's wrestling and cardio but thinks Brito's power and submission threat early make him the value play.

"I will end up taking joanderson burrito but it's hard to say oh I got a dog pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Brito is a relentless pressure fighter who doesn't give opponents room to breathe. He has good takedown defense and gets back to his feet quickly. Pearce is a wrestler who may get takedowns early, but Brito's ability to scramble and return to striking will break Pearce. Brito will land big punches and eventually find a knockout in the third round.

win by knockout
"give me Jo Anderson Breo to find the Finish"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Paul also picks Brito, citing his power and the danger he poses early. He notes that Pearce has been hurt before and Brito hits hard. Paul thinks Brito's submission threat, especially a guillotine, is real early. He sees this as a dog or pass and takes the plus money.

"burrito for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

The MMA Guru picks Joanderson Brito to finish Jonathan Pearce in round one. He criticizes Pearce's competition and notes that Pearce struggled against Darren Elkins, Makwan Amirkhani, and Christian Rodriguez. He highlights Brito's finishing potential with first-round wins over Lucas Alexander, Andre Fili, and Weston Wilson, and believes Brito's run will continue.

finish in round one
"I'm going to go Jo Anderson Brito over Jonathan Pierce... I reckon he's on a run right now and he's going to continue that run and actually finish Jonathan Pierce in round one."
WIN vs Darren Elkins
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 57 of 193 29% 67 of 203 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:48
Darren Elkins 0 110 of 222 49% 154 of 276 2 of 7 28% 0 1 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 11 of 57 19% 14 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Darren Elkins 0 30 of 64 46% 35 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:42
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 15 of 47 31% 22 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Darren Elkins 0 44 of 68 64% 74 of 106 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:29
3 Jonathan Pearce 0 31 of 89 34% 31 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Darren Elkins 0 36 of 90 40% 45 of 100 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 57 of 193 29% 47 of 176 9 of 15 1 of 2 49 of 177 8 of 16 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 110 of 222 49% 80 of 188 18 of 22 12 of 12 66 of 159 14 of 20 30 of 43
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 11 of 57 19% 9 of 51 2 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 30 of 64 46% 16 of 47 11 of 14 3 of 3 21 of 51 4 of 5 5 of 8
2 Jonathan Pearce 15 of 47 31% 14 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 37 5 of 10 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 44 of 68 64% 37 of 61 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 27 8 of 10 23 of 31
3 Jonathan Pearce 31 of 89 34% 24 of 82 6 of 6 1 of 1 29 of 85 2 of 4 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 36 of 90 40% 27 of 80 4 of 5 5 of 5 32 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, trusting him to wrestle early and use his power and grappling. He notes Pearce is a good size favorite and should be, but expresses concern that Pearce was taken down three times in his last fight, and Darren Elkins will be looking for takedowns. He believes Pearce needs to grapple first and not wait for Elkins, otherwise Elkins could control the fight and win a decision.

"Jonathan Pierce is going to be the pick he's got the power in his hands he's got the grappling but I'm gonna need him to Grapple first and not wait for Elkins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Pearce, citing his youth (eight years younger) and less wear and tear. He notes both fighters have similar styles but Pearce has better cardio and takedown ability. He expects Pearce to win a decision, though he acknowledges Elkins is tough and could have moments.

Pearce wins by decision
"I like Jonathan Pierce to win I like him to win by a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Cody picks Pearce, seeing it as a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling and pace, and Elkins' age and damage. He thinks Pearce will win by decision or late finish.

"in terms of a pick it's got to be pierced Pierce got to get this thing done"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Connor picks Jonathan Pearce, agreeing that Elkins is declining and that Pearce is too young and athletic. He notes that Pearce won't be afraid to grapple and is a giant at featherweight, making it a bad matchup for Elkins.

"I got to pick Pierce. It'll be really funny if Elkins just goes out there and be awesome."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, calling it a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling, cardio, and output, and believes Elkins' damage over the years is a factor. He is not betting at the heavy price but is confident in the pick.

"I think that this is just the passing of the torch type fight and I think the line reflects that so jsb is my pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The host is confident in Pearce, calling it a horrible matchup for Elkins. He thinks Pearce's speed, power, and youth will overwhelm Elkins early. He expects a first-round finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds at minus 135 as a steal. He notes that Pearce has all the advantages except heart, which won't be enough for Elkins.

under 2.5 rounds -135; Pearce inside the distance; Pearce round 1
"the under two and a half I'm currently seeing it around that minus 135 range which I think is a steal of a price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins hesitantly, thinking the price is too wide. He notes Elkins' durability and pace, and Pierce's questionable cardio. He likes Elkins by decision at +800 as a sprinkle.

Elkins by decision at +800
"I see Darren Elkins by decision out there plus 800 Cody I don't know if I can help myself but to throw a little sprinkle on that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce as a lock of the card, citing Darren Elkins' decline in speed and performance. He notes Elkins has looked slower in recent fights and that Pearce is a tough, momentum-driven fighter who has been melting opponents. He predicts a dominant decision or late TKO for Pearce.

Pearce by dominant decision (30-27) or late TKO
"I'm going to be going with Jonathan Pierce I think again this is one of the locks of the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Zane picks Jonathan Pearce, stating that Elkins is in decline and has been toughing out wins against lesser competition. He notes that Pearce is younger, bigger, and won't crumble; he will play his own game rather than being drawn into Elkins' strengths.

"I'm not picking Darren Elkins. I'm there. I'm not picking this man anymore. I have not liked the way he has looked for, it feels like 20 years now."
TKO (punches) R2 4:10 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 11 of 22 50% 12 of 23 3 of 7 42% 0 0 1:25
Makwan Amirkhani 0 90 of 112 80% 144 of 178 4 of 5 80% 0 0 4:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 6 of 11 54% 7 of 12 3 of 7 42% 0 0 1:25
Makwan Amirkhani 0 46 of 51 90% 61 of 67 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:39
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Makwan Amirkhani 0 44 of 61 72% 83 of 111 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 0 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 90 of 112 80% 75 of 94 11 of 14 4 of 4 16 of 28 37 of 37 37 of 47
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 6 of 11 54% 4 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 46 of 51 90% 43 of 47 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 37 of 37 6 of 7
2 Jonathan Pearce 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 44 of 61 72% 32 of 47 9 of 11 3 of 3 13 of 21 0 of 0 31 of 40
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, noting it's a grappler vs grappler matchup and it will come down to who shoots first. He believes Pearce will initiate the takedowns and has a high pace. He mentions Amirkhani just submitted a better wrestler in Mike Grundy, and all of Pearce's losses are grappling-based, so he suggests a live bet on Amirkhani if he gets early takedowns.

live bet on Amirkhani if he gets early takedowns
"i think that's jonathan pierce so he's the pick but let's not forget amira connie just submitted mike grundy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Big Brady picks Makwan Amirkhani for the upset by early submission. He likes Jonathan Pearce's style but notes Pearce often gets in bad spots on the mat. Amirkhani has dangerous submissions and good wrestling. However, Amirkhani's cardio is a concern; if he doesn't finish in round one, Pearce takes over. He suggests a live bet on Pearce if Amirkhani doesn't finish round one.

Amirkhani by submission in round 1; live bet Pearce if Amirkhani doesn't finish round 1
"i think i'm going to take mac on here for the upset to get an early submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Cody picks Makwan Amirkhani, agreeing the line is fraudulent. He notes Pearce's striking defense is poor and he almost got submitted in his last fight. Cody thinks Amirkhani is dangerous early and can submit Pearce if he shoots. He also notes Amirkhani has good wrestling and could take Pearce down. Cody likes the moneyline at +170.

"i like this card i like a lot of the favorites on this card but there's going to be favorites that are gonna do [ __ ] in the apple pie and jsp looks like he almost did it to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, emphasizing his high pace and ability to put up large strike and takedown numbers. He acknowledges that Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with his wrestling and submissions, but notes that Amirkhani gasses out due to health issues. Levi believes if Pearce can survive the first round, his pace will be too much in the later rounds.

"if he does get past the first round um i think that the pace for jsp is gonna be too much in the second and third"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Pearce has the striking advantage, overall MMA advantage, and cardio advantage. Amirkhani's only threat is the anaconda choke. Pearce's team will have him prepared. Pearce can finish later or win a decision. I might pull the trigger at -200.

"give me Pierce give me Pierce either later finish or decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Paul picks Makwan Amirkhani at +170, calling it a dogger pass. He thinks the line is off and the fight is closer to 50-50. Paul notes Pearce's cardio looked poor in his last fight and that Amirkhani is dangerous on the ground. He believes if Pearce takes Amirkhani down, he'll be in trouble. Paul also likes Amirkhani by submission at +350.

Amirkhani by submission +350
"i took mac one um on the money line plus 170. i just think that this is more of like a 50 50 fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

The MMA Guru picks Makwan Amirkhani as an underdog, noting he always likes him but often loses when picking him. He believes Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with submissions, and Jonathan Pearce leaves himself in bad positions during scrambles. Pearce's pressure and cardio are good, but his technical scrambles are not. The Guru expects an anaconda choke finish early.

anaconda choke
"i'm going to go makwana mikani getting it done early with a submission"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 18 of 44 40% 59 of 102 6 of 10 60% 2 0 11:17
Christian Rodriguez 0 26 of 60 43% 38 of 77 2 of 2 100% 3 1 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 5 of 12 41% 17 of 36 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:23
Christian Rodriguez 0 3 of 10 30% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 8 of 20 40% 34 of 50 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:15
Christian Rodriguez 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:14
3 Jonathan Pearce 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 16 1 of 2 50% 2 0 3:39
Christian Rodriguez 0 9 of 18 50% 13 of 26 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 18 of 44 40% 9 of 31 5 of 9 4 of 4 10 of 33 5 of 6 3 of 5
Christian Rodriguez 26 of 60 43% 21 of 54 5 of 6 0 of 0 23 of 55 2 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 5 of 12 41% 1 of 7 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Christian Rodriguez 3 of 10 30% 0 of 6 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Pearce 8 of 20 40% 3 of 13 1 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1
Christian Rodriguez 14 of 32 43% 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jonathan Pearce 5 of 12 41% 5 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 3
Christian Rodriguez 9 of 18 50% 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Pearce vs. Christian Rodriguez

Round 1
In another fight featuring a more established fighter against a UFC newcomer, Pearce (11-4, 2-1 UFC) will welcome “CeeRod” Rodriguez (7-0, 0-0 UFC) to the organization. On the one hand, “JSP” has not gone the distance in any of his eight fights, and on the other, Rodriguez celebrates a finish rate of 86%. It’s not likely this will make it into the hands of the judges, and referee Jason Herzog is ready for where the fight takes them. The featherweights do not bothering to touch gloves, and want to get after it right away. Both men land strikes from a distance to test one another, and Pearce sits down with a left hand before shooting in to put Rodriguez on the defensive early. Rodriguez keeps himself upright on the first attempt, and he sneaks in a knee when Pearce presses him to the wall heavily. Pearce gives him several knees back, and he looks to throw the newcomer to the ground but cannot quite get Rodriguez to the mat – possibly thanks to Rodriguez grabbing the cage with his toes. Pearce redoubles his effort for a takedown, and as soon as they hit the ground, “CeeRod” locks him down with a nasty guillotine choke. Rodriguez wraps his legs around Pearce’s waist, and Pearce slowly, methodically works his neck out of this dangerous choke. Rodriguez scrambles, but in the process, he gives up his back, and Pearce is quick to snatch on to it. Rodriguez twists through to not surrender dominant position, but “JSP” rolls through it to get a hook around the side of Rodriguez’ legs. The scrambles are wild and frantic, and even when Pearce holds a body lock, he cannot quite assume full back control. Pearce begins to soften his foe up with punches and elbows, and he holds on to an arm-triangle choke when Rodriguez tries to turn into top position. Rodriguez falls to his back after the ground exchange, with Pearce holding on tight, and the round concludes in this posture.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pearce
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pearce

Round 2
The round begins with Pearce coming out aggressively, but Rodriguez is there to greet him with powerful punches. Pearce jumps in the air with a knee, and Rodriguez intercepts him and tags him with a few shots. The strikes force “JSP” to shoot for a takedown, and it get stuffed in his first try. Rodriguez backs Pearce off with his hands, checking a leg kick and stalking him down. His forward momentum gets used against him, as Pearce manages to hit a takedown when Rodriguez is off-balance. Pearce resumes the strange quasi-back control position he held in the end of the round, and he looks to turn it to a twister. “CeeRod” bucks and twists to get out of this precarious position, and he fights his way back to his feet. Pearce threatens with a standing rear-naked choke, and he bails on it so that he can turn about and slam Rodriguez in the face with a jump knee. In the ensuing scramble, Rodriguez attacks with an armbar, and they fall to the mat. “JSP” slides his elbow out of the bad spot and wrenches his arm free, and as soon as they get to their knees, Pearce is on him with a takedown. Pearce manages to climb on top in search of an arm-triangle choke, and he abandons it when Rodriguez turns so that he can slug him in the face. Rodriguez sits up, but Pearce will not give him any space, as he takes Rodriguez’ back and assumes back control. Pearce fishes for a rear-naked choke but he cannot get his hooks in, and this allows Rodriguez to pop back up to his knees. Pearce follows him until he slides out the back door, and he lets Pearce up so that he can drill him with a heavy salvo of punches. Pearce winces but backs away against the fence to make it to Round 3.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pearce
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pearce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pearce

Round 3
To start off the final round, Rodriguez comes out firing, possibly aware that he is down on the scorecards. He tees off on Pearce with a few right hands, and he catches Pearce with a right hand when “JSP” attacks with a flying knee. Pearce falls forward into a takedown, and Rodriguez reverses him and goes after a rear-naked choke. The scramble is furious and fast-pace, and Rodriguez manages to take Pearce’s back as Pearce may be fading from two rounds of heavy grappling. Rodriguez clings to him with a body triangle, and Pearce still stands up. Rodriguez drills him in the face with a blistering elbow, and Pearce is wobbled badly and staggers back to the cage wall. “CeeRod” will not let him off the hook, giving chase and tagging Pearce with a few more punches. Hurt but not out, Pearce ducks down for a double-leg takedown, and he grounds Rodriguez to save his own chin. Rodriguez tries and ultimately fails to scramble, but he fights out of a submission attempt or two that Pearce sets up as he looks to secure Rodriguez’ back. Pearce successfully gets a hook around the waist with his leg, disallowing Rodriguez to turn towards him. Pearce uses this position to hunt for an arm-triangle choke from the back, and Rodriguez turns to his knees to break the grip but cannot get Pearce off of him. “JSP” locks on to a rear-naked choke, and Rodriguez successfully holds it off with wrist control and turns to try to stand up. Pearce wrangles him back down to the ground, making Rodriguez’ life miserable with ground control and back takes. Pearce nearly slides off the top, but he rejiggers himself to claim full mount briefly and hang on tight to the back when Rodriguez turns. Pearce rides out the position to the end of the fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pearce (30-27 Pearce)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pearce (29-28 Pearce)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pearce (30-27 Pearce)

The Official Result
Jonathan Pearce def. Christian Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Jonathan Pearce despite being high on Rodriguez. He notes Rodriguez is coming up a weight class on short notice, which is a huge disadvantage against a pressure wrestler like Pearce. He predicts Pearce will break Rodriguez with his pace and get a second or third round finish.

win by third round knockout
"I got to go pierce here I get why he's such a big favorite but um I'm very high on both these guys but give me appears to win by like a third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Cody is very confident in Pearce, calling him a potential parlay piece. He notes that Rodriguez is taking the fight on short notice, is young and inexperienced, and comes from a kickboxing gym with poor grappling. Cody highlights Pearce's dominant performances at 145, where he ragdolls opponents with takedowns and ground-and-pound. He believes Pearce will press Rodriguez against the cage, take him down, and finish him.

"this seems like it would be your other parlay piece like i know it's minus 3 30 but jonathan pierce has got the goods"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Levi picks Pearce, citing his size (6' at featherweight), relentless pace, and takedown volume. He notes that Rodriguez is talented but too small for featherweight and that Pearce's style of constant pressure and grappling will break him. Levi acknowledges Rodriguez's bright future but believes this is a tough matchup for him.

"give me jsp to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Pearce has a significant size and strength advantage, with a 5-inch height edge. He will likely implement a takedown-heavy game plan, and Rodriguez is making a short-notice debut at a weight class not his own. Pearce's blueprint from training partners and his own grappling should lead to a finish inside the distance. Pearce inside distance is the pick.

Pearce inside distance (-135)
"pierce inside the distance uh minus 135 right now so money coming in i think i saw my plus 115 yesterday but i think he gets it done inside the distance here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Paul picks Pearce, agreeing that he deserves to be the biggest favorite on the card. He notes that Pearce's pace and strength at 145 are overwhelming, and that Rodriguez is a short-notice replacement with no notable wins. Paul thinks Pearce will use his size and wrestling to dominate.

"jonathan pierce deserves to be the biggest favorite on the car"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He questions Christian Rodriguez's level of competition, noting his last opponent was 19-36 and that his record looks padded. He believes Pearce's grappling will be too much for Rodriguez, as Pearce has proven himself against better competition and will take Rodriguez into deep waters.

third round rear naked choke submission
"i am going to be going with jonathan pierce here to start off the card i do believe he gets this one done over christian rodriguez and i'm going to predict that he gets this one done in deep waters …"
WIN vs Omar Morales
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:31 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 12 of 35 34% 55 of 83 6 of 11 54% 1 0 5:33
Omar Morales 0 12 of 25 48% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 10 of 29 34% 28 of 48 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:22
Omar Morales 0 11 of 21 52% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 2 of 6 33% 27 of 35 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:11
Omar Morales 0 1 of 4 25% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 12 of 35 34% 9 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 3 11 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
Omar Morales 12 of 25 48% 9 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 18 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 10 of 29 34% 7 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 3 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Omar Morales 11 of 21 52% 8 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 15 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Pearce 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0
Omar Morales 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Angelo picks Omar Morales, citing his strong kickboxing, solid takedown defense, and forward pressure. He notes that Morales' only loss is to Giga Chikadze, which looks better after Giga's recent win. Angelo believes Morales' striking and ability to control the cage will be key, and he expects a stoppage win.

Angelo suggests less less on Monkey Knife Fight strike line, expecting a stoppage.
"I gotta go with Omar Morales"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Big Brady picks Omar Morales to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Jonathan Pierce is very hittable and relies on his chin, while Morales has good takedown defense and is a black belt in BJJ. He believes Morales can take advantage of Pierce's sloppy striking and potentially finish him early, though he acknowledges Pierce's cardio could be a factor if the fight goes longer.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna say he knocks out jonathan pierce i'm gonna say this is going to be an absolute war"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Cody picks Pearce as an underdog, citing his volume, pace, cardio, and wrestling. He notes Morales' low output and questions his power at UFC level. He worries about Morales' calf kicks but believes Pearce's pressure will overwhelm Morales over three rounds.

"i'm gonna take the underdog shot here and go with jonathan pierce"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Omar Morales

Daniel Levi picks Omar Morales because he believes Morales can slow the pace and fight at his own methodical rhythm. He notes that Jonathan Pearce absorbs too many strikes (upwards of seven per minute) and that Morales has a solid wrestling base and is in his prime at 35. Levi also mentions that Morales addressed medical issues that held him back previously, and expects a finish or decision win.

"you cannot eat seven strikes per minute and beat omar morales in a fight so give me omar morales either via decision or via knockout"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Jacob picks Jonathan Pearce, citing his wrestling, pace, and a quote from Pearce: 'I've never seen a striker out wrestle a wrestler.' Jacob believes Pearce will get takedowns and wear down Omar Morales. He also notes that Pearce has already beaten Morales once before.

Jacob calls Pearce his 'lock of the week' and plans to include him in DraftKings lineup at $7,700.
"Jonathan Pierce, I think and I made this decision literally 15 minutes before the podcast started... I just love Jonathan Pierce"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Omar Morales

The host believes Omar Morales will win via decision. He thinks Morales has a much more hard-nosed striking style that will march down Jonathan Pierce. He expects Pierce to struggle to close the distance and land takedowns due to the heavy onslaught from Morales. He notes that Pierce's grappling success is necessary for him to win, but he doubts Pierce can break Morales.

"I'm going to be going with omar morales and i'm going to take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not have a clear pick. He is staying away from this fight, noting he has been burned by Pearce before (the Joe Lauzon loss). He respects others who like Morales but has no edge.

"i'm not going to step in front of you on that one that that's a fight that i'm going to probably stay away from"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Omar Morales

The MMA Guru picks Omar Morales over Jonathan Pearce, citing Morales' composed striking and takedown defense. He notes that Morales' only loss is to Giga Chikadze, which has aged well, and that Pearce, while looking good against Kaikamaka, is not at Morales' level. He expects Morales to win a unanimous decision, as he doesn't see the fight hitting the ground and believes Morales is a more versatile and dangerous striker.

"i'm going to be going with omar morales here this bout takes place in the featherweight division both guys very big for the featherweight division as well"
TKO (punches) R2 4:28 · UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark · Nov 28, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 51 of 100 51% 113 of 172 5 of 7 71% 1 0 3:26
Kai Kamaka III 0 47 of 83 56% 48 of 84 1 of 3 33% 1 1 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 22 of 55 40% 23 of 56 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Kai Kamaka III 0 35 of 64 54% 36 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 29 of 45 64% 90 of 116 4 of 4 100% 1 0 2:51
Kai Kamaka III 0 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 51 of 100 51% 34 of 76 12 of 19 5 of 5 27 of 71 6 of 9 18 of 20
Kai Kamaka III 47 of 83 56% 20 of 51 20 of 25 7 of 7 44 of 79 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 22 of 55 40% 10 of 37 9 of 15 3 of 3 19 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kai Kamaka III 35 of 64 54% 13 of 37 15 of 20 7 of 7 35 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Pearce 29 of 45 64% 24 of 39 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 20 3 of 5 18 of 20
Kai Kamaka III 12 of 19 63% 7 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 15 2 of 3 1 of 1
Darren Elkins - Fight History
LOSS vs Julian Erosa
KO R1 4:15 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.

"Rosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favor. You go out there and you handle, you know, the kind of old decrepit 40-year-old vet, and that's exactly what he did."
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 39 of 88 44% 102 of 170 3 of 12 25% 0 1 6:33
Daniel Pineda 0 31 of 53 58% 61 of 85 0 of 0 --- 2 1 3:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 3 of 8 37% 23 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:07
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 15 86% 27 of 30 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:07
2 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 47 40% 39 of 72 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:24
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 24 50% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Darren Elkins 0 17 of 33 51% 40 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:02
Daniel Pineda 0 6 of 14 42% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 39 of 88 44% 30 of 78 9 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 70 3 of 7 8 of 11
Daniel Pineda 31 of 53 58% 21 of 38 7 of 10 3 of 5 17 of 37 1 of 1 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 13 of 15 86% 12 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 13
2 Darren Elkins 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 37 0 of 0 7 of 10
Daniel Pineda 12 of 24 50% 6 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 3 10 of 22 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 17 of 33 51% 12 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0 14 of 27 3 of 6 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.

bet on Elkins at +102
"Darren Elkins is going to be the pick and I have a bet on him at plus 102"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.

third round knockout
"I'm going Darren Elkin One Last Ride uh to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.

"I am inclined to pick a 40 year old Darren Elkins with the full knowledge that he may get knocked out immediately"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"as long as Elkin durability holds up early he should be able to break pan down and find a finish in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.

TKO or submission, calf kicks, guillotine
"I'm going to go with Daniel panada getting this one done by TKO or submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.

Elkins opened +111, now +100; Pineda opened -123, now -112; Zane says there's no reason Pineda should be a favorite
"I'm taking Elkins can't feel good about it, but I also don't feel like I can really pick Panetta"
WIN vs T.J. Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:23 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 11 of 33 33% 95 of 146 5 of 8 62% 2 1 8:09
T.J. Brown 0 15 of 50 30% 45 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 11 18% 53 of 80 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:32
T.J. Brown 0 4 of 13 30% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
2 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 16 43% 28 of 43 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:49
T.J. Brown 0 9 of 29 31% 32 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:44
3 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 6 33% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:48
T.J. Brown 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 11 of 33 33% 8 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 15 of 50 30% 11 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 2 of 11 18% 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 7 of 16 43% 4 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 9 of 29 31% 7 of 26 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.

"I am fairly confident that TJ is going to be able to win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.

Elkins by finish in round 3
"I'm going to pick Darren alkins for the up set I think TJ Brown probably looks really good early but in TJ Brown fashion I expect him to make a mistake as the fight goes on or gas out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.

Live bet on Elkins after first round
"I got Elkins he's the underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.

Brown wins inside distance +165
"taking him to win inside the distance at plus 165 probably a good way of taking this chalky spot and making a plus money spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.

Bet Darren Elkins at +160
"I've got Darren Elkins plus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.

"I'm going to go TJ Brown over Darren Elkins nothing personal against Darren Elkins but he fights like a geriatric old man these days"
LOSS vs Jonathan Pearce
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 57 of 193 29% 67 of 203 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:48
Darren Elkins 0 110 of 222 49% 154 of 276 2 of 7 28% 0 1 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 11 of 57 19% 14 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Darren Elkins 0 30 of 64 46% 35 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:42
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 15 of 47 31% 22 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Darren Elkins 0 44 of 68 64% 74 of 106 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:29
3 Jonathan Pearce 0 31 of 89 34% 31 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Darren Elkins 0 36 of 90 40% 45 of 100 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 57 of 193 29% 47 of 176 9 of 15 1 of 2 49 of 177 8 of 16 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 110 of 222 49% 80 of 188 18 of 22 12 of 12 66 of 159 14 of 20 30 of 43
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 11 of 57 19% 9 of 51 2 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 30 of 64 46% 16 of 47 11 of 14 3 of 3 21 of 51 4 of 5 5 of 8
2 Jonathan Pearce 15 of 47 31% 14 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 37 5 of 10 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 44 of 68 64% 37 of 61 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 27 8 of 10 23 of 31
3 Jonathan Pearce 31 of 89 34% 24 of 82 6 of 6 1 of 1 29 of 85 2 of 4 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 36 of 90 40% 27 of 80 4 of 5 5 of 5 32 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, trusting him to wrestle early and use his power and grappling. He notes Pearce is a good size favorite and should be, but expresses concern that Pearce was taken down three times in his last fight, and Darren Elkins will be looking for takedowns. He believes Pearce needs to grapple first and not wait for Elkins, otherwise Elkins could control the fight and win a decision.

"Jonathan Pierce is going to be the pick he's got the power in his hands he's got the grappling but I'm gonna need him to Grapple first and not wait for Elkins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Pearce, citing his youth (eight years younger) and less wear and tear. He notes both fighters have similar styles but Pearce has better cardio and takedown ability. He expects Pearce to win a decision, though he acknowledges Elkins is tough and could have moments.

Pearce wins by decision
"I like Jonathan Pierce to win I like him to win by a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Cody picks Pearce, seeing it as a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling and pace, and Elkins' age and damage. He thinks Pearce will win by decision or late finish.

"in terms of a pick it's got to be pierced Pierce got to get this thing done"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Connor picks Jonathan Pearce, agreeing that Elkins is declining and that Pearce is too young and athletic. He notes that Pearce won't be afraid to grapple and is a giant at featherweight, making it a bad matchup for Elkins.

"I got to pick Pierce. It'll be really funny if Elkins just goes out there and be awesome."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, calling it a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling, cardio, and output, and believes Elkins' damage over the years is a factor. He is not betting at the heavy price but is confident in the pick.

"I think that this is just the passing of the torch type fight and I think the line reflects that so jsb is my pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The host is confident in Pearce, calling it a horrible matchup for Elkins. He thinks Pearce's speed, power, and youth will overwhelm Elkins early. He expects a first-round finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds at minus 135 as a steal. He notes that Pearce has all the advantages except heart, which won't be enough for Elkins.

under 2.5 rounds -135; Pearce inside the distance; Pearce round 1
"the under two and a half I'm currently seeing it around that minus 135 range which I think is a steal of a price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins hesitantly, thinking the price is too wide. He notes Elkins' durability and pace, and Pierce's questionable cardio. He likes Elkins by decision at +800 as a sprinkle.

Elkins by decision at +800
"I see Darren Elkins by decision out there plus 800 Cody I don't know if I can help myself but to throw a little sprinkle on that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce as a lock of the card, citing Darren Elkins' decline in speed and performance. He notes Elkins has looked slower in recent fights and that Pearce is a tough, momentum-driven fighter who has been melting opponents. He predicts a dominant decision or late TKO for Pearce.

Pearce by dominant decision (30-27) or late TKO
"I'm going to be going with Jonathan Pierce I think again this is one of the locks of the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Zane picks Jonathan Pearce, stating that Elkins is in decline and has been toughing out wins against lesser competition. He notes that Pearce is younger, bigger, and won't crumble; he will play his own game rather than being drawn into Elkins' strengths.

"I'm not picking Darren Elkins. I'm there. I'm not picking this man anymore. I have not liked the way he has looked for, it feels like 20 years now."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 75 of 151 49% 165 of 259 5 of 10 50% 1 0 7:52
Tristan Connelly 0 66 of 117 56% 106 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 39 48% 55 of 84 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:40
Tristan Connelly 0 7 of 18 38% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:07
Tristan Connelly 0 34 of 50 68% 37 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 70 of 105 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:05
Tristan Connelly 0 25 of 49 51% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 75 of 151 49% 66 of 141 9 of 10 0 of 0 38 of 107 29 of 34 8 of 10
Tristan Connelly 66 of 117 56% 48 of 96 9 of 12 9 of 9 42 of 87 21 of 27 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 19 of 39 48% 17 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 28 2 of 2 7 of 9
Tristan Connelly 7 of 18 38% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 27 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 42 11 of 13 1 of 1
Tristan Connelly 34 of 50 68% 22 of 38 5 of 5 7 of 7 23 of 38 9 of 10 2 of 2
3 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 22 of 49 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 37 16 of 19 0 of 0
Tristan Connelly 25 of 49 51% 19 of 41 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 33 11 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Angelo picks Tristan Connelly, though he acknowledges Elkins is never out of a fight. He thinks the damage is catching up to Elkins after his KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly can avoid takedowns and land big punches to sneak out a win, but notes Elkins' toughness and ability to make fights ugly.

"i do like tristan connolly to get it done but the reality is darren elkins is a guy that you can never count out of a fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins but is hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Elkins' experience and wrestling, but worries about his age and damage taken. He expects Elkins to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.

decision
"i'm going to take uh darren elkins to win i think he's going to mix and take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Cody also picks Connelly, noting Elkins' age and wear. He thinks Connelly's cardio and BJJ will allow him to survive early takedowns and take over later. Cody references Connelly's fight against Pat Sabatini, where he lost the first two rounds but dominated the third. He believes Connelly's speed and pressure will be too much for Elkins, and that Connelly could even submit him.

"i'm gonna back another underdog here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins but is not confident. He believes the best version of Elkins would grind out Connelly, but questions how much damage Elkins has taken over his career, comparing him to BJ Penn's decline. He also questions if Connelly belongs at UFC level, noting his win over Michel Pereira was more about Pereira beating himself. Levi is not comfortable laying -175 and passes on betting.

"i'll go with elkins just because if you give me the best version of both guys i do think elkins grinds that out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The host leans Connelly as an underdog, citing his cardio and BJJ. He notes Elkins is slowing down and has taken massive damage, while Connelly has good cardio and can match Elkins' pressure. Connelly's striking is better if kept standing, and his jiu-jitsu can neutralize Elkins' wrestling. He expects a competitive fight that could go to decision, with Connelly having a live chance.

Connelly by decision +300, fight goes to decision -185
"i think connolly's live he's a junkyard dog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Paul picks Tristan Connelly as a live underdog, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and age (in fight years). He notes Connelly's BJJ black belt and endless cardio, and his ability to defend takedowns and get back up. Paul thinks Connelly's speed and pressure will be key, and that Elkins may be damaged goods after the Cub Swanson loss. He mentions Connelly's guillotine choke as a potential threat.

"i think this is another live dog that we're looking at"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The Guru picks Tristan Connelly, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and recent KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly is younger with less wear and tear, and has shown tenacity in coming back in fights. The Guru notes Connelly's good third round against Pat Sabatini and his win over TJ Laramie. He thinks Elkins' chin is starting to go and that Connelly has more heat in his punches. He predicts Connelly will grind out a decision or get a late finish.

Connelly by decision or late finish; Connelly is an underdog
"i'm taking tristan connolly over darren elkins here... i'm gonna go with tristan connolly grinding out a decision and ending up winning the last two rounds or maybe getting a late rounds finish"
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.

moneyline bet at +170
"i do have a money line bet on darren elkins and that's mostly because the odds were so good i mean plus 170 is crazy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.

decision
"give me swanson to win give me swanson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.

Swanson by decision +150
"I will take cup swanson he's the official pick I don't like that price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.

Swanson by decision; fight doesn't go to decision (if Elkins submits)
"I am going to pick Cub to win but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sketched out if Elkins got on top of him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.

"cub swanson is going to dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.

Swanson by KO (+250); parlay Swanson + Barcelos (-102)
"I like cub swanson by ko i think that's very live in this situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.

"I'm going to actually have to watch the fight and I'm going to try to bet it live because I know that swanston doesn't have cardio issues but darren is just he's a guy that has made me a bunch …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.

"i'm going with cub swanson here over darren elkins"
TKO (punches) R2 3:48 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 20 of 30 66% 137 of 154 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:01
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 35 54% 36 of 55 2 of 2 100% 3 2 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 4 of 7 57% 43 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:44
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 33 57% 36 of 53 1 of 1 100% 3 2 3:17
2 Darren Elkins 0 16 of 23 69% 94 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:17
Darrick Minner 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 20 of 30 66% 18 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 23
Darrick Minner 19 of 35 54% 14 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 13 4 of 7 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1
Darrick Minner 19 of 33 57% 14 of 25 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 12 4 of 7 10 of 14
2 Darren Elkins 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 22
Darrick Minner 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Angelo picks Darrick Minner because he is the more technical fighter, improving, and has a relentless pace. He expects Minner to take Elkins down and finish with elbows. He likes the under on rounds and the less/less on monkey knife fight, predicting a stoppage. He has Minner in his DraftKings lineup.

under on rounds; less/less on monkey knife fight
"i have derrick minor winning i have derrick minner in my lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks the dog Darren Elkins despite his age (37) and damage taken, because he questions Darrick Minner's cardio after only one fight showing improved stamina. He notes Elkins has not been submitted since 2010 (only loss to Charles Oliveira) and has faced strong grapplers. He expects Minner to have early success but fade, allowing Elkins to finish late. He calls this the hardest fight to call on the card.

Elkins by second round finish (KO or sub)
"i'm gonna side with the dog and darren elkins... i'm going to say that elkins pushes a pace that manor is not going to be able to keep up with"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins as a dog, citing his experience against top competition and his wrestling and cardio advantages. He thinks Minner's style is erratic and his cardio is suspect, and that if Minner doesn't get a first-round submission, Elkins will grind him out. He notes Elkins is a larger man and should be able to wrestle him.

"i'm gonna go with jared elkins take a dog pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darrick Minner

Daniel Levi picks Darrick Minner to dominate, noting that Minner is in the best part of his career with Krause's coaching, while Elkins' best days are behind him. He expects Minner to control the minutes, possibly via doctor stoppage or clear decision, as Elkins cuts easily and gets taken down. Levi warns about Minner's history of being finished but believes Elkins won't win rounds.

"i think minor can open blood on this guy very early"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Jacob picks Darrick Minner because he thinks Minner will eventually submit Elkins. He notes that Elkins is tough and has fought top competition, but Minner is younger and improving. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a grappling-heavy fight with lots of action. He acknowledges that Elkins is always live but thinks Minner gets the job done.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"minor i think eventually we'll we'll submit them some minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Darren Elkins, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He believes Minner's cardio issues will be exposed as Elkins pressures him. He notes Minner's recent decision win was against a weak opponent and that Elkins has not been submitted in over a decade. He likes Elkins by decision at +290 and also mentions Elkins inside the distance at +350.

Elkins by decision +290; Elkins inside the distance +350; Elkins round three +1700 (sprinkle)
"i do like darren elkins in the spot i'm gonna go uh out as an official pick i'm going to go with elkins by decision at plus 290"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a clear dogger pass. He notes Minner's last win was against Charles Rosa, who was complacent on the ground, and that Elkins will try to get back up. He mentions the only person to submit Elkins is Charles Oliveira. He already bet Elkins at +152.

"that was my first bet of the card i found a uh a plus 152"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

The Guru picks Minner, believing he is underrated and will outscramble Elkins. He criticizes Elkins' recent win over Eduardo Gagori as unimpressive, noting Gagori's padded record. He highlights Minner's wins over Charles Rosa and Terence McKinney, and his competitive grappling with Grant Dawson. He predicts a decision win via outscrambling.

"i'm going to pick him to beat darren elkins and get the job done"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:22 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Teixeira · Nov 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 32 of 72 44% 120 of 168 7 of 21 33% 1 0 7:34
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 36 of 78 46% 48 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 12 of 21 57% 55 of 69 5 of 12 41% 0 0 4:06
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 5 of 8 62% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 33 39% 41 of 64 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:40
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 18 of 40 45% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 18 38% 24 of 35 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:48
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 13 of 30 43% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 32 of 72 44% 21 of 58 10 of 13 1 of 1 18 of 55 12 of 15 2 of 2
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 36 of 78 46% 28 of 69 8 of 9 0 of 0 30 of 69 3 of 4 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 12 of 21 57% 8 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 8 of 9 2 of 2
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 13 of 33 39% 9 of 27 4 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 27 4 of 6 0 of 0
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 18 of 40 45% 14 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 35 2 of 2 2 of 3
3 Darren Elkins 7 of 18 38% 4 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 13 of 30 43% 10 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady is confident in Elkins due to Garagorri's poor takedown defense (53%) and Elkins' wrestling. He notes Elkins can submit him and that Garagorri has been taken down multiple times before. However, he is hesitant to bet at -230 and suggests looking at the submission prop.

submission prop
"I'm going to take darren elkins and I know he's towards the end of his career... but the path to victory is written all over the wall here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins, but notes he prefers him at underdog odds. He believes Elkins can get takedowns against Garagorri, who has poor takedown defense. Levi is concerned about Elkins' decline and tendency to get cut, but thinks his wrestling will be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges Garagorri's power and potential to cause damage, but sees Elkins as the safer pick.

decision
"i'm gonna go with elkins to win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Elkins via decision, citing his superior grappling, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Garagorri's lack of takedown defense and training in Uruguay as weaknesses. He is slightly concerned about Garagorri's power and speed but believes Elkins will drown him with relentless takedowns and top pressure.

"I like elgin's here i don't mind him at the minus 200 range... possible parley piece"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

The MMA Guru picks Darren Elkins to win by unanimous decision. He dismisses Eduardo Garagorri as having not shown up in some fights and lacking competition. He notes Elkins's experience against tough grapplers like Ryan Hall and his ability to avoid submissions.

"i'm definitely gonna go with darren elkins against eduardo gegori"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, trusting him to wrestle early and use his power and grappling. He notes Pearce is a good size favorite and should be, but expresses concern that Pearce was taken down three times in his last fight, and Darren Elkins will be looking for takedowns. He believes Pearce needs to grapple first and not wait for Elkins, otherwise Elkins could control the fight and win a decision.

"Jonathan Pierce is going to be the pick he's got the power in his hands he's got the grappling but I'm gonna need him to Grapple first and not wait for Elkins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Pearce, citing his youth (eight years younger) and less wear and tear. He notes both fighters have similar styles but Pearce has better cardio and takedown ability. He expects Pearce to win a decision, though he acknowledges Elkins is tough and could have moments.

Pearce wins by decision
"I like Jonathan Pierce to win I like him to win by a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Cody picks Pearce, seeing it as a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling and pace, and Elkins' age and damage. He thinks Pearce will win by decision or late finish.

"in terms of a pick it's got to be pierced Pierce got to get this thing done"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Connor picks Jonathan Pearce, agreeing that Elkins is declining and that Pearce is too young and athletic. He notes that Pearce won't be afraid to grapple and is a giant at featherweight, making it a bad matchup for Elkins.

"I got to pick Pierce. It'll be really funny if Elkins just goes out there and be awesome."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, calling it a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling, cardio, and output, and believes Elkins' damage over the years is a factor. He is not betting at the heavy price but is confident in the pick.

"I think that this is just the passing of the torch type fight and I think the line reflects that so jsb is my pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The host is confident in Pearce, calling it a horrible matchup for Elkins. He thinks Pearce's speed, power, and youth will overwhelm Elkins early. He expects a first-round finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds at minus 135 as a steal. He notes that Pearce has all the advantages except heart, which won't be enough for Elkins.

under 2.5 rounds -135; Pearce inside the distance; Pearce round 1
"the under two and a half I'm currently seeing it around that minus 135 range which I think is a steal of a price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins hesitantly, thinking the price is too wide. He notes Elkins' durability and pace, and Pierce's questionable cardio. He likes Elkins by decision at +800 as a sprinkle.

Elkins by decision at +800
"I see Darren Elkins by decision out there plus 800 Cody I don't know if I can help myself but to throw a little sprinkle on that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce as a lock of the card, citing Darren Elkins' decline in speed and performance. He notes Elkins has looked slower in recent fights and that Pearce is a tough, momentum-driven fighter who has been melting opponents. He predicts a dominant decision or late TKO for Pearce.

Pearce by dominant decision (30-27) or late TKO
"I'm going to be going with Jonathan Pierce I think again this is one of the locks of the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Zane picks Jonathan Pearce, stating that Elkins is in decline and has been toughing out wins against lesser competition. He notes that Pearce is younger, bigger, and won't crumble; he will play his own game rather than being drawn into Elkins' strengths.

"I'm not picking Darren Elkins. I'm there. I'm not picking this man anymore. I have not liked the way he has looked for, it feels like 20 years now."