vs
+320 -333
UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland Next Fight
Age 40
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Michael Johnson
4.27 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.78 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.57 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marc Diakiese
2.54 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
2.64 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
3.29 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Michael Johnson
Moneyline
FanDuel +320
KO/TKO
FanDuel +900
Submission
FanDuel +3100
Decision
FanDuel +500
Marc Diakiese
Moneyline
BetWay -333
KO/TKO
BetRivers +350
Submission
BetMGM +1200
Decision
FanDuel -110
Michael Johnson - Fight History
LOSS vs Drew Dober
KO R2 1:53 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 22 of 55 40% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Drew Dober 1 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 22 of 55 40% 9 of 33 7 of 14 6 of 8 21 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 27 of 76 35% 18 of 55 0 of 11 9 of 10 27 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 9 4 of 6 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 18 of 51 35% 9 of 31 0 of 11 9 of 9 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Drew Dober 11 of 26 42% 7 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 9 of 25 36% 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.

Dober by second round knockout
"Give me give me Dober as a dog with very little confidence, but I'll take Dober to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.

"Ang Michael Johnson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.

Odds: Johnson opened at -185, now -122; Dober opened at +160, now +102.
"I think I have to take Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.

"I'm going to go Drew Dober to come out here and get this upset after an early scare."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.

Fight ends via KO
"I am picking Michael Johnson to win the fight. The reason I'm picking him to win the fight is because he's faster than Drew Dober and hits probably just as hard."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.

Johnson by knockout
"I have to lean with Johnson and I think you have to make him the slight favorite because of the technical advantages that he has in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.

"Johnson either detonates one upside that chin or just puts in the better of volume over the course of two of those three rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.

KO in round two
"Drew Dober is gonna knock out Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.

Odds: Johnson -122, Dober +102.
"Me too. Unless Drew Dover hits his legendary lap drop."
UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line on him here. I'm just hoping the minus 152 tightens a bit.
"I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be a little too fast, a little too clean. I like the power on the Hernandez side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.

Hernandez by decision
"I gotta go Hernandez here. You know, it's actually kind of funny. Both these guys seem to whenever you least expect to just find a way to lose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.

"I'm jumping back on team Hernandez. So, if he loses, it's entirely my fault. The universe does not want me to win money on this guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.

"I'm gonna pick i'm gonna pick hernandez still just because I really think michael johnson's late career win streak is smoke and mirrors."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez based off the momentum."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.

"I got Alexander Hernandez in this one. I feel like he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.

Hernandez by knockout
"I'm going to go Hernandez here in Hernandez by knockout. Very low confidence level though."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind an under two and a half at like plus 125 in this fight. I think both guys have paths to getting a finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Michael Johnson. If Hernandez wins, he's truly improved beyond belief."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.

"I really think michael johnson could win this and yeah, I think i'm gonna pick him."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 1 80 of 195 41% 81 of 196 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Daniel Zellhuber 0 52 of 182 28% 52 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Daniel Zellhuber 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 1 30 of 77 38% 31 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 66 25% 17 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 26 of 62 41% 26 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 80 of 195 41% 27 of 100 42 of 81 11 of 14 77 of 189 0 of 0 3 of 6
Daniel Zellhuber 52 of 182 28% 19 of 125 27 of 48 6 of 9 50 of 180 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 24 of 56 42% 4 of 22 15 of 28 5 of 6 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 1
Daniel Zellhuber 12 of 46 26% 2 of 23 7 of 17 3 of 6 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 77 38% 14 of 47 10 of 23 6 of 7 27 of 72 0 of 0 3 of 5
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 66 25% 7 of 51 9 of 14 1 of 1 16 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 26 of 62 41% 9 of 31 17 of 30 0 of 1 26 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 23 of 70 32% 10 of 51 11 of 17 2 of 2 22 of 69 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.

"Daniel Huber is the pick. I like Michael Johnson. Father time comes from everybody."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.

Zellhuber by second round knockout
"I think Zel Heber is going to put it on him throughout the fight and eventually either touch the chin or ... win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.

"I'm still picking Zellhuber for pace and because I do think that Johnson's form of choosiness is still not one that's safe."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.

knockout within two rounds
"I'm going with the Mexican fighter here as I think he can pick apart Johnson from distance and I think that will eventually line up a big knockout for him and I expect it to happen within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.

"I'm going to go with Daniel Zel Huba over Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.

"I'm going to take Zellhuber too. On a completely dumb predictive algorithm kind of level."
KO (punch) R2 2:03 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 1 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Ottman Azaitar 0 16 of 56 28% 20 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Ottman Azaitar 0 10 of 37 27% 14 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 1 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ottman Azaitar 0 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 19 of 50 38% 13 of 37 3 of 8 3 of 5 16 of 46 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ottman Azaitar 16 of 56 28% 8 of 39 7 of 12 1 of 5 15 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 11 of 31 35% 6 of 21 3 of 6 2 of 4 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ottman Azaitar 10 of 37 27% 5 of 25 5 of 9 0 of 3 9 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 8 of 19 42% 7 of 16 0 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ottman Azaitar 6 of 19 31% 3 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.

Caution on betting due to Johnson's chin.
"Johnson is the better fighter everywhere outside of just raw power and even though he is old he should be able to control the Striking potentially get takedowns and ultimately win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.

fight doesn't go to distance
"I'm gonna pick Michael Johnson just because I have to because he's he's such he's so much better than Atman a zitar at everything but aitar has power and Michael Johnson loves to lose fights he's supposed to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.

"I'm going Michael Johnson as well I think Michael Johnson just beats him I I honestly do."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.

"I don't think he's doing MMA is a thing where he cares about winning MMA fights. It's just about taking them every now and then still to serve as a buffer to remind people that he's still a pro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.

"I'm gonna take opman aitar for the upset win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.

wins by KO in round 1 or early round 2
"I believe that will be the case here once again as he goes up against heavy haired opman Zer who should be able to crash the pocket consistently and end up finding a knockout Victory within the first round and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I like the unders in this fight Michael Johnson is my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to say Michael Johnson chins otoman aitar in about round two"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.

Azaitar opened at +186, Johnson at -214; Zane notes the odds are widening in Johnson's favor and he can't argue with it.
"I think it's a pretty straightforward Michael Johnson pick for me. 38 years be damned."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 61 of 112 54% 80 of 138 4 of 8 50% 0 0 6:02
Darrius Flowers 0 33 of 64 51% 52 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Darrius Flowers 0 20 of 36 55% 20 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 40 of 64 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:12
Darrius Flowers 0 7 of 20 35% 11 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Michael Johnson 0 2 of 6 33% 8 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:44
Darrius Flowers 0 6 of 8 75% 21 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 61 of 112 54% 16 of 47 36 of 52 9 of 13 58 of 109 0 of 0 3 of 3
Darrius Flowers 33 of 64 51% 10 of 31 9 of 12 14 of 21 29 of 60 1 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 32 of 60 53% 7 of 23 17 of 27 8 of 10 32 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darrius Flowers 20 of 36 55% 1 of 9 6 of 8 13 of 19 20 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 8 of 20 19 of 25 0 of 1 25 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 2
Darrius Flowers 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Darrius Flowers 6 of 8 75% 5 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Darrius Flowers

Angelo acknowledges Michael Johnson's vast experience and skills, but notes he is older, slower, and coming off a bad knockout loss. Darrius Flowers is an in-your-face fighter with power and slams, but is unproven. Angelo picks Flowers due to Johnson's age and the knockout, but is hesitant to bet on an unproven fighter. He compares Johnson to Muslim Salikhov, suggesting a similar fate.

"The pick has to be Darius for all of those factors."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady hesitantly picks Michael Johnson to win by second-round submission. He notes that Johnson is inconsistent and has been on his no-bet list since 2018, but this is his easiest fight in 13 years. Flowers is a one-round brawler with poor cardio and durability, and if Johnson survives the initial storm, he should win. He predicts a finish in the second round, possibly by submission due to Flowers tapping to strikes.

second round submission
"I'm going to hesitantly pick Michael Johnson whenever you pick Michael Johnson you have to do it very hesitantly but I'm going to pick him to win this fight second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his superior skill set and experience against top competition. He notes Flowers' boxing record is poor (1-10) and that he has been knocked out multiple times. Johnson's takedown defense should be sufficient against Flowers, who is not a high-level wrestler. Cody expects a striking battle where Johnson's volume and power prevail, though he acknowledges Johnson's chin is a concern.

"Johnson's a guy that seems to have the superior skill set in pretty much every aspect of the game"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is far superior in striking and experience. He should be able to use his jab and footwork to stay away from Flowers' power and then find a knockout in the second or third round. Flowers has poor cardio and is not UFC-level. Johnson's takedown defense will keep the fight standing. At -125, Johnson is a no-brainer play.

"I had low confidence earlier when I originally started this matchup but the closer that we're getting to the fight I'm starting to think that Johnson is a no-brainer play here especially at that minus 125 line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul also picks Johnson, noting he has fought the best and has knockout wins over top guys. He thinks Flowers' only path is an early knockout, but Johnson's experience and durability should see him through. Paul mentions that Johnson's takedown defense is underrated and that Flowers is not a wrestler. He expects Johnson to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I like Johnson I like Johnson to get a job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson because he believes Johnson can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He references Johnson's shutdown of Mark Diakiese and his performance against Jamie Mullarkey. He does not see Darrius Flowers as a monster prospect and expects Johnson to win by TKO in the first or second round.

TKO in the second round or first round
"I'm going with Michael Johnson over Darius flowers... I reckon he's going to get it done by TKO in the second round or first round over Darius flowers."
KO (punch) R2 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 30 of 71 42% 17 of 46 10 of 21 3 of 4 29 of 70 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 32 of 58 55% 13 of 34 17 of 20 2 of 4 32 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 24 of 55 43% 13 of 37 8 of 14 3 of 4 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 12 of 29 13 of 14 2 of 3 27 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 6 of 16 37% 4 of 9 2 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 5 of 12 41% 1 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.

"I like Michael Johnson as The Underdog in this spot I fully expect this to be a dog fight it should be close but I don't want to hear any narrative about how old Michael Johnson is because Diego's even …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.

decision
"give me Michael Johnson to pull off the upset but trusting Michael Johnson with my money is not something I've done in a very long time"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.

"I'm just going to take Carlos Jagger Pharaoh but again how could you feel good about this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm just gonna pick him too. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.

"I'm gonna pick Carlos Diego because I think in both of their primes Diego wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.

"if Michael Johnson's striking defense and his durability holds up in this matchup as well as his takedown defense he should be able to style on Diego fejera in the Striking realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"Carlos Diego Ferreira at this point in the week will be my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.

KO
"I'm gonna go with Michael Johnson ... I think he's going to KO him as an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm still gonna pick him. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson and I'm not yet willing to believe that he's just entirely erased that problem."
WIN vs Marc Diakiese
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 83 of 181 45% 83 of 181 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Marc Diakiese 0 55 of 127 43% 55 of 127 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 41 of 79 51% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 83 of 181 45% 37 of 116 37 of 55 9 of 10 79 of 171 3 of 7 1 of 3
Marc Diakiese 55 of 127 43% 21 of 80 24 of 31 10 of 16 52 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 12 of 41 29% 5 of 29 5 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 2
Marc Diakiese 23 of 38 60% 6 of 16 9 of 14 8 of 8 22 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 61 49% 14 of 39 13 of 18 3 of 4 30 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 40 27% 5 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 5 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 41 of 79 51% 18 of 48 19 of 27 4 of 4 38 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 1
Marc Diakiese 21 of 49 42% 10 of 35 10 of 11 1 of 3 19 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.

Expects decision win for Diakiese
"I do think Mark's forward pressure the volume now the takedown threat I think he's going to get this win but I think it's going to be a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.

Diakiese wins by decision
"give me Mark Dia Casey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks
"the pick is DK CD Casey by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.

"This is the guy where it's like, I'm not a wrestler. This guy is so breakable in that phase. I'm going to go in there and play my C game. And it's going to crush him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.

"I'll picture Casey but I'm not really interested in laying this price on him because Michael Johnson actually is a good fighter it's just can I trust Michael Johnson and no I can't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.

Diakiese by decision; parlay piece
"I do like Mark D Casey here I'd like him to win by decision if you can get some plus money on that probably worth the stab"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks; parlay with RDA
"I like Dia KC to win uh I I parlay Dia Casey with DOs Angels minus 152 um earlier on today for a little bit of skrilla"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.

Diakiese by decision (30-27)
"I'm going with Mark jacasi here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.

"Jacuzzi is just such a beast. It doesn't even have to be a particularly good technical wrestler. At some point, even if Johnson is winning jacuzzi could just grab him and rip him off his feet."
LOSS vs Jamie Mullarkey
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 1 66 of 190 34% 68 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
Michael Johnson 0 96 of 217 44% 96 of 218 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 1 18 of 42 42% 20 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Michael Johnson 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 45 of 95 47% 45 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 30 of 91 32% 30 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Michael Johnson 0 31 of 69 44% 31 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 66 of 190 34% 42 of 147 22 of 41 2 of 2 58 of 179 4 of 5 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 96 of 217 44% 54 of 160 21 of 34 21 of 23 83 of 195 11 of 18 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 42 42% 12 of 33 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 4 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 20 of 53 37% 10 of 37 3 of 9 7 of 7 18 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 4
2 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 57 31% 11 of 44 6 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 45 of 95 47% 24 of 69 11 of 15 10 of 11 34 of 79 11 of 16 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 30 of 91 32% 19 of 70 11 of 21 0 of 0 30 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 31 of 69 44% 20 of 54 7 of 10 4 of 5 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.

Moneyline bet on Michael Johnson as underdog.
"I think he wins this fight... I think I'm going money line bet on michael johnson as well two to one underdog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.

"i'm going to take jamie malarkey to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.

"sign me up for jamie malarkey but again the price tag is not great and i wouldn't fault anybody for for banking on michael johnson's uh great footwork and huge power"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)
Michael Johnson

The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.

1 unit on Johnson moneyline +225. Also 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -174. Parlay includes under 2.5 for this fight.
"I'm also going to go one unit on Michael Johnson plus 225. again a value play here in a sense I think he's the better Striker than malarkey I think he's faster than malarkey I think he can knock him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.

"i'm kind of i kind of want to bet the underdog here but i don't want to pull the trigger on michael johnson because the guy's an absolute flake"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.

finish in round three
"I got to go with Jamie Mullarkey here."
Marc Diakiese - Fight History
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 42 54% 67 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:27
Kauê Fernandes 0 13 of 32 40% 65 of 92 3 of 8 37% 0 1 8:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 13 46% 17 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 10 40% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:33
2 Marc Diakiese 0 10 of 19 52% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 12 33% 16 of 29 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:50
3 Marc Diakiese 0 7 of 10 70% 30 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Kauê Fernandes 0 5 of 10 50% 35 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 23 of 42 54% 6 of 20 8 of 13 9 of 9 21 of 38 2 of 4 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 13 of 32 40% 11 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 1 7 of 18 2 of 4 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 6 of 13 46% 2 of 6 2 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 10 40% 3 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Marc Diakiese 10 of 19 52% 2 of 9 5 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 12 33% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 7 of 10 70% 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 4 7 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Fernandes despite Diakiese's experience and competition edge. He believes Fernandes can defend takedowns and will stay in Diakiese's face with striking, causing trouble. He notes Diakiese has become more of a wrestler lately, but his wrestling is decent at best, while Fernandes has solid takedown defense. Angelo placed a small underdog bet on Fernandes at +145, noting the line is tightening.

small underdog bet at +145, line tightening to +116
"I am going to lean Fernandez here obviously Marc Dy has the uh experience level the competition Edge heavily favors him but I like Fernandez I think he can defend the takedowns I think he's going to come forward I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Marc Diakiese to win by decision. He notes that Diakiese has evolved into a wrestler, with 11 takedowns against Slava Borshchev and 8 against Damir Hadzovic. He trusts Diakiese's cardio and fight IQ, and believes Fernandes is dangerous early but fades. He also mentions that Diakiese's submission loss to Joel Alvarez was due to a head clash.

"I like di Casey here um and D Casey's fought the much better competition... give me Mark D Casey to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his UFC experience, improved cardio, and well-rounded game. He notes that Diakiese has evolved from a dynamic striker to a more complete fighter who uses offensive wrestling. Levi acknowledges Diakiese's inconsistency and tendency to flake, but believes this is a step down in competition. He sees Fernandes as dangerous early with his BJJ and head kicks, but expects Diakiese's cardio and wrestling to take over in later rounds. Levi is leaning Diakiese but not with high confidence.

Diakiese wins by decision, Diakiese wins inside distance
"I'll pick Diakiese with the experience... but it's not gonna surprise me one bit if this guy flakes out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Marc Diakiese

James acknowledges that Diakiese deserves to be a favorite but sees too much danger on the Fernandes side due to his unproven UFC debut and potential cardio issues. He notes that Diakiese has been submitted multiple times and that Fernandes has speed and power, but he also points out that Fernandes gassed in his last extended fight. Ultimately, James is not betting this fight because he cannot trust either fighter, but he leans Diakiese as the rightful favorite.

"I guess I'm picking mark in this fight because I think he should be a favorite but there's too much danger Factor on the Fernandez side."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Diakiese has a solid submission defense to thwart Fernandes' offensive attacks on the mat. As the fight goes into deeper waters, Diakiese will find it easier to control Fernandes on the mat and do good work from top position. Diakiese is good enough in the striking realm to deal with Fernandes' early threat, and will likely drag the fight to the ground and grind out a decision win.

surprised line is dropping; thinks -130 is a gift
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is dropping as much as it has... I think that that's a solid spot, I think that's a gift of a spot to take the Casey here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese over Kauê Fernandes. He notes that Fernandes is a good regional fighter with finishing potential, but he gassed after the first round when facing adversity. Diakiese is tough to finish early, having only lost to Joel Alvarez due to a head clash. The Guru expects Diakiese to weather an early storm and then take over in the later rounds via grappling, predicting a third-round TKO or submission.

"I'm going to go with Mark Jai mainly because although KY Fernandez... he absolutely gassed after the first round... I'm going to go with Mark Jai via a third round TKO or finish by submission"
LOSS vs Joel Alvarez
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:26 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joel Alvarez 0 20 of 46 43% 29 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:09
Marc Diakiese 0 42 of 75 56% 64 of 98 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joel Alvarez 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Marc Diakiese 0 31 of 62 50% 31 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
2 Joel Alvarez 0 1 of 4 25% 9 of 13 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:55
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 13 84% 33 of 36 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joel Alvarez 20 of 46 43% 8 of 25 6 of 11 6 of 10 20 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 42 of 75 56% 20 of 49 12 of 16 10 of 10 37 of 70 2 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joel Alvarez 19 of 42 45% 7 of 22 6 of 11 6 of 9 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 31 of 62 50% 15 of 42 7 of 11 9 of 9 31 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joel Alvarez 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 13 84% 5 of 7 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joel Alvarez vs. Marc Diakiese
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-190), Diakiese (+160)

Round 1
Although this next lightweight pairing might be described as a potential brawl, neither Diakiese (16-6, 7-6 UFC) nor Alvarez (19-3, 4-2 UFC) make their bread off of being knockout artists. Instead, their grappling has been arguably their best attributes, so this could turn into a wild affair that ends up going everywhere. Keeping tabs on this fight will be referee Dan Movahedi, one that opens up with a fist bump from the 155ers. The two are amped up to engage, and the first strike offered is a low kick from Diakiese. When he misses, he resets and reaches his target with a second. Alvarez brings up a high knee when Diakiese comes at him, and he fires off a kick to the knee sleeve of his opponent and catches the Brit with a right hand. Diakiese goes down low with a kick, and he uses his other leg to kick the body. They crash together throwing fierce fists, and both catch the other with one punch and back off to take quick counts of their teeth. Diakiese chains a low kick into a spinning back kick, and Alvarez bounces off the cage wall and gets back to striking range. Alvarez springs into action with a calf kick and a right hand, and they measure one another with jabs to follow. Alvarez steps in with a knee, and Diakiese throws everything he has into a right hand that opens a cut on the cheek of his opponent. Diakiese spins with a back fist, and Alvarez ducks it and catches him with a right hand that staggers the mohawk-sporting fighter momentarily. Diakiese swings for the bleachers with a right hand, and Alvarez dodges it and absorbs a flush leg kick so he can counter with a head kick. Alvarez chambers and looses a hard leg kick, and he beats Diakiese to the punch with a check left hook as Diakiese winds up on a power punch. Alvarez pushes off with a front kick, and he gets wobbled when swinging too hard with a haymaker while Diakiese counters him. Diakiese lets him settle down and gives chase to line up a right hook and a spinning back kick, and Alvarez runs at him with two fists and a leg kick. Alvarez spins with a high kick, ducks a spinning back fist, takes Diakiese’s back and looks for a trip. Diakiese leans himself against the cage to keep himself upright, and Alvarez succeeds in tripping him out. Diakiese reverses him to end up on top, and he scores an elbow and a few body shots before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 2
The lightweights briefly tap their gloves together, but Diakiese is more interested in coming out firing. Alvarez pays close attention, and he watches Diakiese sail past him with a spinning wheel kick. When Diakiese gets his balance again, he changes levels and secures a takedown to put the Spaniard on his back. Alvarez scrambles to put himself close to the wall, and Diakiese is comfortable inside of the guard softening Alvarez up with short strikes. Alvarez looks to turn to the side or potentially set up something off his back, and Diakiese stays heavy and tightly pressed to his man to prevent anything from coming together. Diakiese embraces the grind, focusing more on position rather than offense. Alvarez decides to stop looking for some submission off his back, and he wall-walks to stand back up. Diakiese strips out his legs and puts him down to his back again. Alvarez uses upkicks to stop Diakiese from lowering himself down, and Diakiese shoots down low and gets turned around by the Spanish fighter. With “The Bonecrusher” turning to his knees, Alvarez opens up with punches to the side of the head. Alvarez is warned for strikes to the back of the head, and Diakiese turns to his back and suddenly explodes up to his feet. Alvarez races forward to attack, and his head bounces off Diakiese’s. Diakiese clutches the side of his head, signaling to Movahedi that he absorbed a foul. Movahedi tells them to fight on, and Alvarez unloads with several knees to the body and ferocious fists.
Diakiese desperately drops down to pursue a takedown, and Alvarez welcomes this as he follows Diakiese down and isolates the neck. “El Fenomeno” slides his arm beneath the chin and his other under the armpit to lock down a brabo choke, and he has it tight. Diakiese rolls to his back, and Alvarez moves to lower his full body weight down to complete the submission. With Diakiese still rocked by the head clash, he does not have the sense to fight the choke, and he taps out.
This is an unfortunate situation for Diakiese, as Movahedi missed the clash of heads with Alvarez’ forehead slamming into the side of Diakiese’s head behind the ear. As the official announcement is read, it is unclear if the result will be under review at this time. Diakiese is still wobbled from the foul when Movahedi raises Alvarez’ victorious arm, and he almost falls over and has to be caught by one of his cornermen so he does not crash and burn. The official result is a submission, but it might not remain as such should it get reviewed or appealed.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Marc Diakiese R2 4:26 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Angelo likes Joel Alvarez's length and reach advantage, and thinks he can win by sneaky submission off his back or catch Diakiese on the feet. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense but believes Diakiese's recent loss to an older Michael Johnson is a bad sign. He has a small moneyline bet but does not recommend tailing.

small moneyline bet placed; not recommended to tail
"I like Joel Alvarez to get the win I've got a small money line bet on him as well I wouldn't recommend tailing it because it is a bit sketchy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win by first-round submission. He notes Alvarez is a dangerous grappler with 84% of wins by submission, but also has good striking as shown against Thiago Moises. He thinks Diakiese will shoot for a takedown and get caught. He mentions Alvarez may miss weight but that benefits him. He would not lay -190 but thinks Alvarez wins more often than not.

first round submission
"give me Alvarez to win this fight I'll say club and sub heard Steve Casey on the feet Dia Casey shoots in and gets his next match up in the very first round Alvarez first round submission for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Cody picked Alvarez earlier at -152, citing Diakiese's poor fight IQ and failure to wrestle against Michael Johnson. He thinks Alvarez's submission grappling and power will be too much. He notes the line has moved to -200 and feels the value is gone.

Alvarez submission at +125 (not taken)
"I backed uh Joel Alvarez earlier in the week at minus 152."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Daniel picks Joel Alvarez by submission, specifically a guillotine, because he does not trust Marc Diakiese to avoid diving into a submission. He notes Diakiese has been guillotined before and makes bonehead mistakes. He acknowledges Diakiese has the tools to win via takedowns and control, but believes Alvarez's opportunistic finishing ability and physicality will prevail. He points out that Alvarez has 0% takedown defense but is dangerous off his back. He has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200 due to the poor value.

Daniel predicts Alvarez wins via guillotine. He says he has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200. He mentions Alvarez has never won a decision.
"Joel probably keeps is zero percent takedown defense intact and wins via guillotine"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The host picks Joel Alvarez, citing his size, reach, aggression, and ability to inflict damage from any position. He believes Diakiese cracks under pressure and that Alvarez will finish him within 7.5 minutes. He notes Alvarez's dangerous bottom game with elbows and submissions.

finishes within 7.5 minutes
"giving Joelle Alvarez here and I think he finishes uh Mark D Casey honestly within seven and a half minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Paul picks Alvarez, noting his power and submission threat. He thinks Diakiese's wrestling is overrated and that he will leave his neck exposed. He expects Alvarez to win by submission or decision, and suggests live betting if Diakiese controls the first round.

suggests live betting if Diakiese wins first round
"I would take Joel Alvarez I can see this being a boy a boring points decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez, citing Marc Diakiese's poor performance against Michael Johnson. He praises Alvarez's win over Thiago Moises and his massive 77-inch reach in the lightweight division. The Guru notes Diakiese's tendency to get caught in guillotines when shooting takedowns, and predicts Alvarez will catch a guillotine after a takedown attempt. He also mentions Alvarez's layoff but believes he is entering his prime.

guillotine choke
"I'm gonna have to go Joe Alvarez here over Mark jacasian"
LOSS vs Michael Johnson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 83 of 181 45% 83 of 181 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Marc Diakiese 0 55 of 127 43% 55 of 127 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 41 of 79 51% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 83 of 181 45% 37 of 116 37 of 55 9 of 10 79 of 171 3 of 7 1 of 3
Marc Diakiese 55 of 127 43% 21 of 80 24 of 31 10 of 16 52 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 12 of 41 29% 5 of 29 5 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 2
Marc Diakiese 23 of 38 60% 6 of 16 9 of 14 8 of 8 22 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 61 49% 14 of 39 13 of 18 3 of 4 30 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 40 27% 5 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 5 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 41 of 79 51% 18 of 48 19 of 27 4 of 4 38 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 1
Marc Diakiese 21 of 49 42% 10 of 35 10 of 11 1 of 3 19 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.

Expects decision win for Diakiese
"I do think Mark's forward pressure the volume now the takedown threat I think he's going to get this win but I think it's going to be a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.

Diakiese wins by decision
"give me Mark Dia Casey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks
"the pick is DK CD Casey by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.

"This is the guy where it's like, I'm not a wrestler. This guy is so breakable in that phase. I'm going to go in there and play my C game. And it's going to crush him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.

"I'll picture Casey but I'm not really interested in laying this price on him because Michael Johnson actually is a good fighter it's just can I trust Michael Johnson and no I can't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.

Diakiese by decision; parlay piece
"I do like Mark D Casey here I'd like him to win by decision if you can get some plus money on that probably worth the stab"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks; parlay with RDA
"I like Dia KC to win uh I I parlay Dia Casey with DOs Angels minus 152 um earlier on today for a little bit of skrilla"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.

Diakiese by decision (30-27)
"I'm going with Mark jacasi here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.

"Jacuzzi is just such a beast. It doesn't even have to be a particularly good technical wrestler. At some point, even if Johnson is winning jacuzzi could just grab him and rip him off his feet."
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 13 of 32 40% 78 of 111 8 of 11 72% 0 0 13:35
Damir Hadžović 0 5 of 10 50% 20 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 2 of 3 66% 23 of 29 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:45
Damir Hadžović 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marc Diakiese 0 8 of 19 42% 19 of 34 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:17
Damir Hadžović 0 2 of 5 40% 10 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Marc Diakiese 0 3 of 10 30% 36 of 48 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:33
Damir Hadžović 0 2 of 4 50% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 13 of 32 40% 8 of 25 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 25 2 of 2 4 of 5
Damir Hadžović 5 of 10 50% 3 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Damir Hadžović 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marc Diakiese 8 of 19 42% 6 of 16 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 3
Damir Hadžović 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 3 of 10 30% 1 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Damir Hadžović 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, noting he is the far better striker and coming off an impressive grappling win. He highlights Diakiese's power, leg kicks, and durability, while Hadžović is an okay striker with wins over fighters no longer in the UFC. He loves a Diakiese and Nathaniel Wood parlay.

parlay with Nathaniel Wood
"i love a mark de casey nathaniel wood parlay so i'm probably gonna smash those two together"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Marc Diakiese to win by decision. He notes Diakiese has a clear path: take down Hadžović, who has terrible takedown defense (37%) and suspect cardio. Diakiese showed he can wrestle for 15 minutes in his last fight. He expects Diakiese to control the fight with takedowns and win a decision.

Diakiese by decision
"i like dkc here quite a bit and i'd like to casey to once again win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He notes Hadžović's only path is a puncher's chance, but Diakiese has a great chin. Cody thinks Diakiese will take Hadžović down at will and control the fight. He also likes Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"i got dia casey i think he can make this look really easy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his wrestling and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Diakiese has a good blast double and can find ways to win, as long as he doesn't get too flashy. Levi also mentions that both fighters have calf kicks, but Diakiese's wrestling should be the difference. He hasn't forgiven Hadžović for a previous loss and sees limited improvement.

"i think he can come out here and grind out damir hadzovich so for that reason i'm picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Diakiese is a safe spot. He can grapple or strike with Hadžović, who is a one-dimensional brawler. Diakiese should take a smart approach, get takedowns, and win. Even on the feet, he can hold his own.

"I like the Casey here I think he's a pretty safe spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul picks Marc Diakiese, citing his wrestling improvements and takedown ability. He notes Hadžović has poor takedown defense and has been taken down many times. Paul thinks Diakiese will stick to a wrestling game plan and easily get takedowns. He also likes Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"dear casey i think wins and i think it's wrestling he's gonna lean on again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese to win by KO. He notes Diakiese has shown grappling improvements and is still a good fighter. Hadžović is simple and fundamental on the feet, lacking finishing ability against decent opponents. Diakiese's unorthodox style will give him trouble, and he expects a KO statement.

KO
"i'm going to call mark jacoby getting a good ko and getting a statement made on this card"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 17 of 20 85% 40 of 50 11 of 18 61% 0 0 12:24
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 12 of 21 57% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 4 of 4 100% 9 of 10 3 of 7 42% 0 0 3:55
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 5 of 11 45% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Marc Diakiese 0 9 of 11 81% 21 of 25 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:08
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 5 of 6 83% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marc Diakiese 0 4 of 5 80% 10 of 15 5 of 6 83% 0 0 4:21
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 2 of 4 50% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 17 of 20 85% 6 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 12 4 of 6 5 of 5 8 of 9
Viacheslav Borshchev 12 of 21 57% 6 of 15 3 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 12 3 of 6 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 4 of 4 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2
Viacheslav Borshchev 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marc Diakiese 9 of 11 81% 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 6
Viacheslav Borshchev 5 of 6 83% 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Marc Diakiese 4 of 5 80% 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1
Viacheslav Borshchev 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Angelo picks Viacheslav Borshchev, calling him the more technical striker. He notes that while Marc Diakiese has more power, Borshchev's kickboxing background and technical ability should control the fight. He mentions Borshchev needs to avoid Diakiese's leg kicks and power. He may throw a moneyline bet despite the 2-1 odds.

i may throw a money line bet on him two to one
"i like worship to win here but he definitely needs to avoid the leg kicks and avoid the power of mark dioxis"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Big Brady picks Viacheslav Borshchev to win by decision, but is not overly confident. He likes Borshchev's striking and volume, but is concerned about his takedown defense, as he gets taken down in every fight. However, he notes that Borshchev has an elite get-up game and can get back to his feet. He thinks Diakiese can make it competitive with takedowns, but Borshchev will win the striking exchanges.

Viacheslav Borshchev wins by decision
"I'll go borschev but I don't feel like overly confident about it... I'm going to take borah chef to win... by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Cody picks Borshchev, disagreeing with the line. He criticizes Diakiese's inconsistency and poor performances as a favorite. He likes Borshchev's pressure, power, and ability to get up from takedowns. He thinks Borshchev will overwhelm Diakiese and get a finish.

"i think borishev wins i just think it's going to be a very volatile fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Daniel Levi leans Viacheslav Borshchev, citing his superior boxing and striking. He notes Borshchev has defensive flaws on the ground but is training at Alpha Male to improve. He thinks Diakiese will get early takedowns but Borshchev will get back up and pull away on the feet. He is not betting the fight but picks Borshchev to win.

"I think borscht probably gets taken down early and if he can avoid getting submitted... he gets back up and starts to kind of pull away"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host slightly favors Diakiese, citing his overall MMA game, experience against better competition, and the threat of takedowns that could disrupt Borshchev's striking. He notes Borshchev's body shot power but thinks Diakiese's speed and wrestling could be key. He expects a decision win for Diakiese.

Diakiese by decision at +300
"i do favor him ever so slightly because i think he can put together a better 15-minute fight than we're going to see from borschev"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul leans Diakiese as an underdog, citing recency bias on Borshchev. He notes Diakiese's close fight with a talented kickboxer and thinks the price is too high on Borshchev. He sees Diakiese getting back on track but isn't confident.

"i'm leaning towards gia casey to get back on track here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

The MMA Guru picks Viacheslav Borshchev by late first-round TKO over Marc Diakiese. He believes Borshchev is better in the pocket and notes Diakiese's chin issues after being rocked by Rafael Alves. The Guru expects Diakiese to shoot for takedowns but Borshchev to work back up and land big shots, as he won't be as worried about the grappling threat as he was against Dakota Bush.

late first round tko
"i'm gonna go with via schlav borishev"
LOSS vs Rafael Alves
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:48 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Alves 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Alves 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Alves 3 of 13 23% 0 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Alves 3 of 13 23% 0 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his leg kicks and body shots to tire out Alves, who has cardio issues. He notes that Alves is dangerous but has no takedowns in the UFC and tends to gas. Angelo believes if Diakiese stays composed and technical, he should win straightforwardly.

"i'm going with mark here after the year-long layoff i think the leg kicks will help sort of remove some of that alves power i think the body shots will speed up uh alvez's eventual gassing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Big Brady picks Rafael Alves as an upset, citing Alves' impressive UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov where he showed improved cardio and power. He notes Alves is dangerous everywhere: on the feet with knockout power and on the mat with a black belt in BJJ. Brady expects Alves to hurt Diakiese on the feet, then snatch a submission when Diakiese shoots for a takedown.

Alves by submission
"I'm actually here with the upset here i'm going to take rafael elvis to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody believes Diakiese will use his reach and footwork to stay outside and pick apart Alves, who is low-volume and explosive but fades. He notes Alves missed weight badly and is a 'weight bully' who struggles with cardio. He expects Diakiese to win a decision.

"i got dear casey here and it's early enough in the card that i probably will have them a little higher than i should"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his speed and athletic advantage. He believes Diakiese can win a decision if he minds his P's and Q's against the experienced Alves. Levi acknowledges Alves's power and guillotine threat but thinks Diakiese's superior athleticism will be the difference.

"give me march and casey to get it done"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Jacob is very confident in Marc Diakiese, calling him the real deal and predicting he will dominate. He mentions Diakiese's training with Khamzat Chimaev and his ability to use offensive wrestling if needed. Jacob thinks Alves is being fed to Diakiese as a winnable fight and expects a dominant performance.

"yeah mark's going to absolutely dominate this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul thinks Diakiese is the better athlete with better footwork and speed. He notes Alves is low-volume and explosive but fades. He expects Diakiese to stay on the outside and outpoint Alves. He is confident despite Diakiese's poor last performance.

"got to go with the bone crusher to get back on track"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Marc Diakiese

The Guru picks Marc Diakiese by unanimous decision (30-27). He expects Diakiese to establish range with his jab and calf kicks, gradually breaking down Alves over three rounds. Alves may have moments with a takedown or big shots, but Diakiese's calf kicks will limit Alves' movement and lead to a dominant performance.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to call a 30-27 for marc jacozy here over rafael alves"
LOSS vs Rafael Fiziev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Jul 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 68 of 148 45% 73 of 153 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:22
Marc Diakiese 0 78 of 124 62% 82 of 128 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 11 of 18 61% 16 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Marc Diakiese 0 18 of 31 58% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:43
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Marc Diakiese 0 28 of 41 68% 28 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Marc Diakiese 0 32 of 52 61% 33 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 68 of 148 45% 31 of 105 19 of 21 18 of 22 66 of 146 2 of 2 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 78 of 124 62% 28 of 65 33 of 41 17 of 18 67 of 110 9 of 12 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 11 of 18 61% 2 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 8 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 18 of 31 58% 9 of 19 9 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 2
2 Rafael Fiziev 28 of 59 47% 13 of 40 8 of 10 7 of 9 27 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 28 of 41 68% 8 of 18 8 of 10 12 of 13 27 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 29 of 71 40% 16 of 57 9 of 9 4 of 5 29 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 32 of 52 61% 11 of 28 16 of 19 5 of 5 29 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady likes Diakiese, believing he is better overall with a wrestling advantage he has used in recent fights. He thinks the striking will be close but Diakiese's takedowns will seal rounds. He notes Diakiese has a good chin and has never been knocked out, and might bet him if the line is right.

"I like him to win this fight and I'm going to pick him to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi leans toward Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Diakiese should use his full MMA arsenal rather than trying to outkickbox Fiziev. He notes that Diakiese has matured and improved his wrestling and calf kicks. He warns that Fiziev is a dangerous kickboxer and that Diakiese must keep him guessing with takedown threats. He expects a tough fight but thinks Diakiese can win if he fights smart.

"if mark can kind of out mma him ... i think jacasey should win this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Diakiese, noting he has fought better competition and is always competitive. He believes calf kicks will be a huge factor, with Diakiese chopping Fiziev's legs and cruising to a unanimous decision. He mentions Diakiese has become more patient and has a reach advantage.

Diakiese by unanimous decision 30-27
"I think Marchesi is gonna waste no time getting straight to him in the first round chopping up the legs of Rafael fizzy"
WIN vs Lando Vannata
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 40 of 99 40% 45 of 111 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:07
Lando Vannata 0 25 of 70 35% 51 of 108 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Lando Vannata 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marc Diakiese 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
Lando Vannata 0 8 of 32 25% 9 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 34 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:32
Lando Vannata 0 7 of 17 41% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 40 of 99 40% 16 of 52 10 of 25 14 of 22 31 of 84 2 of 3 7 of 12
Lando Vannata 25 of 70 35% 4 of 36 8 of 12 13 of 22 24 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 16 of 38 42% 4 of 15 4 of 10 8 of 13 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 1
Lando Vannata 10 of 21 47% 1 of 8 2 of 4 7 of 9 10 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marc Diakiese 13 of 38 34% 4 of 21 4 of 9 5 of 8 11 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Lando Vannata 8 of 32 25% 2 of 20 3 of 4 3 of 8 7 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 11 of 23 47% 8 of 16 2 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 7 of 11
Lando Vannata 7 of 17 41% 1 of 8 3 of 4 3 of 5 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.

Expects decision win for Diakiese
"I do think Mark's forward pressure the volume now the takedown threat I think he's going to get this win but I think it's going to be a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.

Diakiese wins by decision
"give me Mark Dia Casey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks
"the pick is DK CD Casey by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.

"This is the guy where it's like, I'm not a wrestler. This guy is so breakable in that phase. I'm going to go in there and play my C game. And it's going to crush him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.

"I'll picture Casey but I'm not really interested in laying this price on him because Michael Johnson actually is a good fighter it's just can I trust Michael Johnson and no I can't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.

Diakiese by decision; parlay piece
"I do like Mark D Casey here I'd like him to win by decision if you can get some plus money on that probably worth the stab"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks; parlay with RDA
"I like Dia KC to win uh I I parlay Dia Casey with DOs Angels minus 152 um earlier on today for a little bit of skrilla"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.

Diakiese by decision (30-27)
"I'm going with Mark jacasi here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.

"Jacuzzi is just such a beast. It doesn't even have to be a particularly good technical wrestler. At some point, even if Johnson is winning jacuzzi could just grab him and rip him off his feet."