Career Averages - Stephen Thompson
Career Averages - Kevin Holland
Stephen Thompson
Kevin Holland
Stephen Thompson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 42 of 92 | 45% | 78 of 135 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:28 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 40 of 72 | 55% | 55 of 93 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 5:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 24 | 25% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:11 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 17 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 29 of 47 | 61% | 37 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 16 of 30 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 22 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 42 of 92 | 45% | 21 of 61 | 14 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 37 of 83 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 40 of 72 | 55% | 12 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 30 | 34 of 65 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 6 of 24 | 25% | 1 of 13 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 14 of 24 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 16 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 29 of 47 | 61% | 18 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 16 of 30 | 53% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 10 of 18 | 55% | 2 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-380); Thompson (+310)
Round 1
The final two battles will have the betting favorite of each 15 years younger than their respective underdog. Former title challenger Thompson (17-8-1, 12-8-1 UFC) knows at the age of 42, his time at welterweight is running out. Meanwhile, at 27, Bonfim (17-1, 4-1 UFC) is ready for his meteoric rise. Depending on the Brazilian’s strategy, a number of different types of fights could play out. Like referee Blake Grice, we will see how this interesting stylistic clash plays out shortly. They sportingly clap hands.
Thompson strikes first with a low calf kick. He goes to the same spot again, and Bonfim answers him back three times. They keep chopping at one another until Thompson kicks high. Thompson tries a spin kick that buzzes past his target, and Bonfim stays composed working on the lead leg. Bonfim brushes the side with a kick, and Thompson kicks him back much harder. Bonfim is quick to get in and out with his speedy kicks, allowing him to dodge a side kick aimed at his face. Thompson does not budge or flinch at what is offered at him, allowing Bonfim to chip away at his calf because it is primarily his only weapon. Bonfim shoots, a full-throated double, and he grasps Thompson from behind, lifts him up and slams him down. Thompson works his way back to his feet, and Bonfim chucks him right back down like a side of beef.
Bonfim starts to pursue a rear-naked choke, and he climbs on the back of “Wonderboy” and forces him to lower himself to a knee. Bonfim only has a face crank, but he is squeezing with all of his might as he is still relatively fresh. Thompson breaks free, and the crowd erupts as Thompson starts beating on Bonfim. Bonfim still works his way back to his feet, ignoring the short knees aimed at his torso to lean on the karateka. Thompson breaks out of the tie-up and grins, and he is quick to launch a head kick at the Brazilian. Thompson walks his foe down, landing a body kick and potshotting him with distant strikes. Bonfim reaches him with a left hook, and a second when Thompson is backing up wobbles Thompson briefly. “Wonderboy” checks a calf kick, and he kicks high while Bonfim spins. They collide legs together, and then smile and high-five as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Round 2
Bonfim forgets his mouthpiece between rounds, and he is able to replace it before they get started. Thompson is able to stay at a safe enough range, just missing with a hook kick but scoring his calf kick. Bonfim’s head kick slaps off Thompson’s hand, and he changes levels and shoots for a double, which turns quickly into a single. Thompson defends by pushing off the fence and the back of Bonfim’s neck to shut it down. Thompson gets free, and he is free to kick before marching in with two straight punches. He checks a kick, and a second lands. Bonfim intercepts a blitzing Thompson with a hard left hook, but Thompson’s chin holds up just fine as he digs a kick to the ribs. Thompson kicks it a little higher to slam into the raised guard, and he dances out of the way of the swinging Brazilian.
Thompson is able to kick intercept his opponent, his hands still low as can be as he spins with a wheel kick. Bonfim times a takedown shot, and it fails. A second attempt allows Bonfim to get Thompson down for a second, but Thompson bounces back upright with the fence at his side. Bonfim clings to his opponent and takes away all of his weapons, frustrating the crowd and his opponent equally. Thompson frames off with his knee and gets out with 80 seconds to spare. He jabs the body, avoids a left hook and comes back with his own overhand right. Bonfim presses forward, walking into a side kick and taking a head kick clean on the side of the dome. Bonfim takes it like a champ and keeps plodding forward, drilling Thompson in the chin with a stiff right hand. Thompson shakes his head and spins with a kick that Bonfim sees coming. Bonfim knocks Thompson off his feet with a left hand after kicking Thompson’s shin so hard it splits open. Thompson bounces off the floor and pushes through the pain to clobber Bonfim with a massive head kick. Bonfim’s balance nearly gives way, and he blasts him with a second to further hurt him. Thompson tries to finish the job, and Bonfim desperately goes for a takedown he cannot get. Before he gets his finish, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 3
The welterweights hug it out to get going, but the mean streak of Bonfim does not go anywhere. Thompson kicks Bonfim in the head several times, slamming into the guard or the side of the head indiscriminately. Blood pours out of the open wound on Thompson’s shin, which leaves Thompson with a slight bloody footprint bouncing around the cage. Bonfim tries to grapple his opponent, resulting in a clinch but no takedown. Instead, he uses heel strikes to pound at the gash on “Wonderboy.” The commentary booth is not amused. When they separate, Thompson looks at his shin and goes “whew,” but promptly throws a head kick from that wounded limb. Bonfim tries to stop the strikes from coming by going after another takedown, and Thompson breaks off much faster this time as he turns Bonfim around on the fence.
The karateka knows his best chance of victory is with his legs, and he brushes the Brazilian’s hair with a wheel kick. Thompson grins and Bonfim smiles back. Thompson blasts Bonfim in the dome about as hard as one possibly can, and the Brazilian tanks it and even tries to offer back his own head kick. Bonfim shoots for a double, putting Thompson on his seat as the crowd rejects his approach and lets him have it. Bonfim hangs on to “Wonderboy” and takes an elbow on the side of the noggin for good measure. Bonfim continues to cling to his adversary rather than do anything more with his position, and Grice asks for them to do something. Thompson spins his man around for a second, but Bonfim is able to leverage him back to a knee. Thompson hits a trip and nearly puts Bonfim down, and Bonfim stands and leans as the fight ends in the clinch. It could go either way, which is something not too many people expected.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Stephen Thompson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, expecting him to get frustrated with Thompson's range and shoot takedowns, which will be successful due to Thompson's poor takedown defense. He notes Thompson is 42 and was just knocked out, while Bonfim is a finisher with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He thinks the odds are justified.
Big Brady believes Gabriel Bonfim is getting Stephen Thompson at the right time. He notes Thompson is 42, has been finished in his last two losses, and can be taken down. Bonfim has power on the feet and is an opportunistic submission artist. He expects Bonfim to take Thompson down and submit him early, picking a first-round submission.
Connor picks Bonfim confidently, stating that Thompson at 42 no longer has the speed or counter-wrestling to survive a blitz. He notes that Bonfim is fast, dynamic, and can change gears quickly, and that once he takes Thompson down, he will likely finish him quickly. Connor acknowledges that Thompson may make Bonfim look silly for a few minutes, but he cannot sustain it.
The host notes that Thompson is 42 and relies on speed and reflexes, while Bonfim is younger and more dangerous. He believes Bonfim can compete with Thompson on the feet and eventually drag the fight to the ground to find a submission within two rounds. The pick is based on Bonfim's youth and grappling advantage.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Bonfim, noting he is a -410 favorite. He argues that Stephen Thompson's counter-striking style allows opponents to implement their game, and Bonfim's grappling and size advantage will be key. He expects Bonfim to shoot takedowns, chain them, and submit Thompson in the first or second round, comparing it to his submission of Chaos Williams. He dismisses Thompson's takedown defense as underrated but believes Bonfim's relentless grappling will prevail.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Bonfim because Thompson has reverted to a gutsy slugger who can't wrestle, and Bonfim's speed and dynamic grappling will overwhelm him. He notes that Bonfim will likely take Thompson down and finish him, as seen in the Chaos Williams fight. Zane calls the matchup 'slightly cruel but necessary' for Thompson's career stage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 49 of 106 | 46% | 63 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 34 of 93 | 36% | 55 of 117 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 4:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 16 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 20 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 49 of 106 | 46% | 38 of 93 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 90 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 34 of 93 | 36% | 23 of 78 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 28 of 82 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 6 of 26 | 23% | 5 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 22 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 22 of 45 | 48% | 18 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-198), Thompson (+164)
Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight to cap off the prelims, when former welterweight title challenger and famed karateka Thompson (17-7-1, 12-7-1 UFC) looks for one more W before hanging things up altogether. He will come up against a man in Buckley (19-6, 9-4 UFC) who is 11 years his junior, and loves throwing kicks just as much as “Wonderboy.” Before feet meet face, referee Mike Beltran clocks them in, and the combatants bump fists. Buckley moves directly to the center of the cage and starts pressuring the older fighter, and he is still out of range. Buckley swarms his opponent, gets caught with a right hand and lifts “Wonderboy” up with a double to slam him down. Thompson wall-walks to get up after a few seconds, and chants for “Wonderboy” boom deafeningly throughout the Delta Center. Buckley lands an elbow on the inside to break off, and when they split, Thompson kicks his man in the head. Thompson blitzes with a three-punch salvo, knocking Buckley off-balance. When Buckley gathers himself to advance, Thompson is prepared and he drills Buckley upside the head. Buckley crashes the pocket, leading with his head, and he pushes Thompson back with a flurry of fists. Thompson bounces off the fence to reset, tagging Buckley with a body kick and catching him with a right hand. Buckley responds with a single, lifting Thompson’s right leg up but not putting him down. Buckley lands a few punches on the inside before Thompson skirts away, with the karateka scoring on the break. Thompson backs off and connects with a right hand counter, and blood leaks from a cut on the corner of Buckley’s right eye. Buckley rushes at his foe to close in, getting clipped and pushing through it to surge forward and take the fight down. Thompson defends with elbows to the side of the head and fights his way back up without much effort. Buckley tries to hold him against the fence, but Thompson splits off and does not take much on the break. Buckley lunges, landing at the end of his punches, and Thompson shakes them off and is ready to counter. Buckley whiffs when leaping forward, and he gets kicked low and high. Buckley shoots desperately for a takedown, eats an uppercut to push through it, and he tries a second attempt but cannot get the former title challenger down. The horn sound with them in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 2
Thompson reintroduces himself to start off the round with long jabs. Buckley pressures, but he walks face-first into strikes. Thompson splits the guard with a front kick and just misses with an axe kick and a wheel kick, and he scoots away to bounce off the fencing. Buckley gets off a right hand, and Thompson defends by backing off, countering with his own right and setting up several elbows when Buckley shoots. Buckley cannot hold his foe against the cage, and Thompson is able to free himself and get to his preferred distance. Thompson sticks out a lead right hand and backs off, and Buckley times a takedown to take him off his feet. Thompson climbs up with the fence behind him, and he splits up and lands two punches on the break. They trade low kicks, and Buckley’s head kick is easily blocked. Thompson beats Buckley to the punch with two right hands, but Buckley sits down on a final right hand. Buckley comes up short with a high kick, and Thompson prods out a front kick as fans again cheer loudly for him. Thompson splits the guard with a right hand, and he lands a second only to get clipped on the way back. Buckley lunges and catches Thompson a second time before wrapping his hands around Thompson’s waist to wrest him to the mat. Thompson returns to a knee and pops back up, not settling for getting grounded. In the clinch, Buckley knees his man square in the groin. Thompson tells Beltran after a 15-second break he is good to go, and Beltran tells Buckley to be careful before restarting. Thompson leads off with a pair of kicks from his lead leg, and he swats out with a low kick before backing off from a Buckley blitz. Buckley whiffs on a haymaker and a cartwheel kick, and he walks into two sharp, long right hands. The fighters clack heads as they engage, and Thompson is light on his feet to counter a swarming Buckley as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
There is one final clap of hands to get started, and Thompson picks up where he left off potshotting. Buckley loads up on a right hand, and he gets his hands on Thompson and catches him with a left. Thompson bounces away, and Buckley goes wild, bursting his way forward throwing caution to the wind. Thompson stays composed and fires off a head kick that is barely blocked in time, and he is met by a charging Buckley. Thompson spins out of the tie-up and rests, sticking Buckley with a right hand and eating one when escaping. Thompson has two strikes blocked before a head kick zooms at him, and he puts out three punches and a body kick before Buckley can give him anything back. Thompson dings him with a right hook and puts up a high guard to defend against a similar strike, and he whips a kick up and rattles Buckley’s noodle.
“New Mansa” shakes his head, and he springs forward to attack, lashing out with a right hook that misses, ducking a counter and launching a missile of a right hand that explodes square on the chin of the karateka. The destructive blow face-plants Thompson, and Beltran sprints in to get between them before Buckley can land anything else.
It only took one from the highlight-reel machine, and any debate about scores is wiped clean off the map. Thompson needs a moment to compose himself, wobbly on the feet, but he comes to and gives it up for the victorious Buckley. This is a massive win for Buckley, who vaults into title contention after punching out “Wonderboy,” and he uses his time on the mic well by calling out Kamaru Usman for an eliminator matchup.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Stephen Thompson R3 2:17 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his speed, power, and improved wrestling. He notes Stephen Thompson is 41 and has historically struggled against wrestlers. He believes Buckley will use blast doubles to take Thompson down and grind out a win, though he acknowledges Thompson could catch him with a counter. He also mentions Buckley's recent controversial behavior but thinks this is his opportunity to win back fans.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson as an underdog, arguing that Buckley's wrestling is not on the level of the few fighters who have successfully taken Thompson down (Shavkat, Burns, Belal). He believes Thompson will out-strike Buckley, similar to his performances against Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque, and win a decision.
Cody picks Buckley, emphasizing his wrestling and power. He notes that Thompson's speed declines with age and that Buckley can mix takedowns with striking. He believes Buckley can either grind out a decision or land a knockout.
Connor argues that Buckley's wrestling is the key to victory. He notes that Thompson has lost his ancillary MMA skills and relies solely on his karate, which is automatic but not enough to stop Buckley's takedowns and top control. Buckley has shown effective wrestling in recent wins, and Thompson's lack of recent finishes and durability issues make Buckley the clear pick.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Joaquin Buckley, having bet on him. He believes Buckley's improved footwork and timing of blast double legs will be key to taking down Stephen Thompson. Vreeland notes that Thompson has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight where he didn't fight hands. He expects Buckley to ground and pound for a TKO or submission.
The host notes the blueprint to beat Wonderboy at this stage is to grapple him and keep him on his back. He expects Buckley to get the fight to the ground promptly and use his top-heavy approach to grind out a win on the scorecards, referencing Buckley's recent performance against taller opponents.
Paul picks Buckley, citing his recent wrestling improvements against Nurlan Akhmetov. He thinks Buckley must use takedowns to avoid a kickboxing match with Thompson. He expects a decision win for Buckley.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson, citing Buckley's takedown threat and lateral movement. He notes Thompson is a linear striker who struggles against fighters who move side to side, and Buckley's crashing style will negate Thompson's range. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley will find takedowns and ground-and-pound. He also mentions Thompson's age (41) and potential retirement.
Zane agrees that Buckley's wrestling will be decisive. He highlights that Thompson's striking is still sharp but Buckley's physicality and tireless pressure, combined with his improved top control, will overwhelm Thompson. Zane also notes that Buckley could finish via TKO if he maintains top position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 73 of 88 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 7:45 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 25 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 16 of 16 | 100% | 48 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:20 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 28 of 36 | 77% | 24 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 of 25 | 64% | 6 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 12 of 20 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 10 of 14 | 71% | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 16 of 16 | 100% | 15 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.
Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.
Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.
Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.
Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.
The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.
Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.
The Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson, emphasizing Shavkat's size, strength, and clinch game. He notes that Thompson survived against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but Shavkat's trips and top pressure will be different. He predicts Shavkat will use an outside trip from the clinch, get to half guard, and finish with an arm triangle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 163 of 260 | 62% | 178 of 278 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 119 of 210 | 56% | 123 of 214 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 34 of 47 | 72% | 38 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 49 of 70 | 70% | 52 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 40 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 33 of 66 | 50% | 33 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 43 of 76 | 56% | 48 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 48 of 70 | 68% | 52 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 163 of 260 | 62% | 103 of 192 | 42 of 49 | 18 of 19 | 150 of 241 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 119 of 210 | 56% | 52 of 131 | 23 of 29 | 44 of 50 | 97 of 187 | 22 of 23 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 34 of 47 | 72% | 21 of 31 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 31 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 49 of 70 | 70% | 22 of 39 | 11 of 13 | 16 of 18 | 37 of 57 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 38 of 67 | 56% | 25 of 53 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 33 of 66 | 50% | 16 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 16 | 28 of 61 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 43 of 76 | 56% | 34 of 66 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 71 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 25 of 50 | 50% | 9 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 23 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 48 of 70 | 68% | 23 of 42 | 18 of 21 | 7 of 7 | 42 of 62 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 12 of 24 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-155), Thompson (+135)
Round 1
Less than two months removed from his UFC 279 co-headliner against Khamzat Chimaev, Holland (23-8, 1 NC; 10-5, 1 NC UFC) is back in action again, this time as the main attraction. Getting back to welterweight after that awkward 180-pound switcheroo, this will be fight number four this year for “Trailblazer” compared to the first in 2022 for Thompson (16-6-1, 11-6-1 UFC). One of these two will turn things around and return to the win column at night’s end, and it could be the recently aged 30-year-old Holland or soon-to-be 40 “Wonderboy.” Referee Dan Miragliotta is on the call for this striker’s delight, and the two men who enjoyed one another’s company greatly this week touch ‘em up to commence the final fight of the night. When Thompson kicks, Holland does too. Holland charges recklessly, forcing Thompson to retreat and attempt to counter. Holland’s forward blitz leads to a clinch, and he starts talking to his opponent to tell him to let him go. Thompson obliges and scores a low kick, and he counters Holland over the top with a right hand. Holland ends up closing in with a clinch when trying to surge forward, and Thompson pushes him away and nails Holland with a serious left hand. Holland shakes it off and reaches out with side kicks, and a blow from Holland has opened a cut on the corner of Thompson’s left eye. Holland comes out throwing caution to the wind and engaging wildly, and Thompson is there to brawl and catch him with quicker strikes. Holland gets blasted with another left hand and grins, and he leaps forward to attack. The lunging strikes from Holland open him up to counters, and Holland grins and runs forward to unleash a ferocious overhand right that rocks the karateka. Holland backs his man up to the wall and starts to do work on him, but Thompson pushes off and shakes out the cobwebs. As Holland re-engages, Thompson meets him with a left hand and a speedy head kick. Holland is thrilled by the exchanges, smiling and having a blast, and Thompson is enjoying himself as well. Holland runs forward with a back fist, and “Wonderboy” knocks him back wit ha left. As Thompson fires off a hook kick, Holland times a chopping kick to knock Thompson to the floor. The former title challenger lines up a left hand that rings Holland’s bell, but Holland no-sells the move and allows Thompson to chase him down. They mimic one another’s side stances, and Thompson is there to catch his advancing opponent. Holland fires off a pair of body kick after sprinting at his man, and Thompson responds in kind. Holland lands a few punches to the body, and the horn sounds. The two welterweights high five after an exciting and fun round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
The fighters are ready and rearing to go to start off the second round, and they clap hands to initiate the proceedings. Thompson slaps a kick low, and Holland does the same. Thompson skips forward with a straight left hand, but Holland sees it coming and evades it. He does not, however, get out of the way from a high kick that slams him square in the face. Holland takes it on the jaw without budging, a kick that would fell lesser men, and stands firm until Thompson blitzes him. Holland escapes the worse of the damage and tries his own attack, and Thompson escapes in time. Leg kicks are traded fast and furiously, and Holland steps into strike and is countered on the way in. The alternating straight rushes lead to thrilling exchanges, and Thompson boots Holland in the face once more. Thompson pushes the pace and belts Holland with a long series of punches, and Holland fires back but gets rocked and bounces into the wall. Thompson lets him off the hook and does not blow his gas tank, and instead trades head kicks when Holland is ready to come back fighting. Holland counters a body kick with an overhand left, and Thompson checks a low kick. Thompson just misses with a hook kick, and Holland gives chase and walks into two straight punches. “Trailblazer” blazes forward and uses Thompson’s lunges to his advantage and tackles Thompson to the floor. Instead of playing on the ground, Holland stands back up, and invites Thompson to stand back up so they can keep throwing heavy leather. Thompson thanks him for this with a happy glove touch, and he spins with a wheel kick that just pushes past the hair. Thompson doles out a few more solid left hands and head kick, and Holland advances recklessly and puts his hands on his opponent as well. Holland knocks the karateka back and might have hurt him, but Thompson recovers and runs after Holland to lay into him as well. Thompson unleashes a spinning wheel kick that smashes into the head of his foe, and Holland wobbles back as Thompson gives him all he has. Holland tries to throw back with haymakers, and he does enough to make Thompson second-guess his approach. The terrific second frame comes to an end as Holland swings so hard, he falls over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 3
The welterweights are grinning from ear to ear, and they high five. Holland tells Thompson to slow down, and Thompson answers him with a high kick and whiffs with a hook kick. Holland jumps forward to break up the stance of his foe, and he settles for a body kick and one to the calf. Thompson whips a kick to the side, and he goes up top as Holland rolls with it and barely evades the worst of it. Thompson scores two solid left hands as Holland attempts to enter the pocket, and they trade kicks as well. Holland pushes forward to strike, and they fall over with another possible tackling takedown from “Trailblazer.” Thompson fights his way up, and they clap hands as they still do not want to take a breath and grapple. When they resume, Thompson lands a side kick and a second knocks Holland off his feet. Thompson lets him back up as well, and they high-five once more. Holland unleashes a low kick, and Thompson is sharper and more elusive as Holland’s hands go wide. Holland wings a head kick, and Thompson answers with a pair of punches and a spinning kick. A second spinning wheel kick misses the mark by a matter of inches, and Holland crashes forward and gets popped with a short left hook. Holland kicks low and swipes high, and Thompson blitzes him and scores a few times over the top. Holland charges, leading with elbows, and they wind up in a clinch that allows Thompson to knee his man in the side a few times. Thompson breaks free and fires off a few punches, and he reaches Holland at the end of a right hand that knocks the head back. Holland appears to be fading, and the punches from Thompson are doing more damage as he pours it on. Holland backs himself up to the wall, and he keeps a high guard up and takes several deep breaths. Holland comes out swinging, and Thompson meets him there and starts unloading on him. Holland takes everything on the chin, and he eats a spinning wheel kick and barely moves. Thompson keeps a bounce in his step, and he spins with another wheel kick. “Trailblazer” comes forward to strike, but he pulls back with his right hand. As the round ends, he walks away looking at the hand, which might be injured.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Holland puts on a poker face and smiles to engage. Thompson starts off with a slapping calf kick, and he pushes off the side of his heel on the chest. When Holland advances, Thompson cracks him with a hook kick, and Holland wears it incredibly well and walks Thompson down to throw hands. A tiring Holland ties Thompson up, and Miragliotta does not need much time before splitting them. Miragliotta does acknowledge that they did clash heads when closing in, which opened up a cut on the bridge of the nose. Thompson splits up and kicks the body, and this liver shot forces an immediate takedown out of his opponent. Holland does not complete it, and Thompson stands back and belts him in the liver one more time. Holland reels and charges for a takedown, and Thompson stops it and stands him up to work on his midsection. Thompson throws a right hand on the beltline, and Holland leans over and Miragliotta waves the fight off. As Holland protests, Miragliotta un-calls the fight and claims it was an accidental groin strike. Holland recovers, whether it was a foul or not, and they resume the action unexpectedly. Thompson knows his man is on the ropes and he kicks the liver twice, and spins with a wheel kick with a heel that drills right into the temple. Holland is hurt but still surviving, throwing a few punches but largely getting wrecked. “Wonderboy” aims two head kicks that do serious damage, and Holland absorbs another spinning wheel kick as Thompson is styling on him. Holland motions for him to come close to him to strike, and Thompson obliges with several punches and a low kick. Thompson fires a side kick to the liver and one to the upper chest, and he is teeing off on the wounded Holland. Holland is little more than a heavy bag at this point, as Thompson takes one or two back for every dozen or so. Thompson swings a spinning wheel kick that nearly knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet, but Holland not only survives, he throws back with a vengeance. Thompson takes several on the jaw and backs off, and he measures his damaged adversary with long kicks and punches. Thompson lines up a left hand that drops Holland to a knee, and he moves into the top position and lands a few punches. Instead of trying to finish the job, Thompson stands up, lets Holland get up, and walks off. The round ends. Holland again walks back to his corner, battered and bruised, and he signals to his team that his right hand is in dire trouble. It does not take more than a few seconds for Holland’s corner to inform Miragliotta that their fighter is done, and they call off the fight. It might seem like an anticlimactic ending to a sensational and dramatic battle, but Holland’s team allows him to live to fight another day. This battle will definitely go down among the greatest fights of this year, with 20 minutes of bloody violence and terrific skill crackling with intensity on display. Jiri Prochazka vs. Glover Teixeira might be challenged for the top spot after this titanic scrap.
In his post-fight interview, “Wonderboy” says he feels 25, and he is in it for the long haul. At 39 years young after a fight like that, Thompson proves he is still a factor in the welterweight division. It’s anyone’s guess what is next for the all-star karateka, as he showed he has plenty of life left in his veins. When he competes again, we will certainly be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
The Official Result
Stephen Thompson def. Kevin Holland R4 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
Angelo picks Stephen Thompson but is hesitant due to Thompson's age (39). He thinks Thompson is the better overall striker with incredible footwork, but notes the fight is basically a pick'em, so he won't bet the moneyline. He plans to wait for props, possibly betting Kevin Holland inside the distance or decision no action, because Holland is younger and dangerous. He expects Thompson to win but won't risk moneyline on a 39-year-old.
Big Brady picks Holland to win by knockout in the second or third round, citing Holland's youth (nine years younger), height, reach, power, durability, and Thompson's age (39) and layoff. He notes Thompson has been knocked down multiple times and Holland has never been knocked out. He also mentions Holland may mix in takedowns.
Cody agrees with Paul and provides extensive reasoning. He highlights that Holland's path to victory is to fight in a way he never does, while Thompson's karate style, output, and five-round experience favor him. He notes Thompson's takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Holland will exploit it. He also mentions the line moving towards Holland as a reason to take Thompson now.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to knock out Stephen Thompson. He notes Thompson's age (approaching 40), suspect chin, and history of being dropped (by Ellenberger, Woodley, Till). He believes Holland's straight right will find the opening and that Holland closes the show when he hurts opponents. He also mentions Thompson's submission defense is good but that Holland's reach and power are key.
The host leans towards Thompson, noting that Thompson is a superior striker and should have the advantage in a striking match. He mentions that Thompson's karate style and ability to hit without getting hit will be key. However, he is cautious about Thompson's age and the possibility of Holland using grappling. He would prefer a better price on Thompson (plus 150) before betting.
Paul sees this as a 50/50 fight but likes Thompson at plus money. He notes Thompson's five-round experience and thinks Holland won't shoot takedowns effectively. He believes Thompson can edge out a decision or even finish if Holland gets frustrated. He also mentions the under 4.5 rounds as a possibility.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, citing Thompson's lack of a backup plan if he faces trouble on the feet. He notes Holland can mix in grappling and has a reach advantage. He predicts Holland will use his goofy style to catch Thompson off guard and finish him by d'arce choke in round three.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 51 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 58 of 95 | 61% | 171 of 271 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 11:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 64 of 111 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 42 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 65 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 19 of 32 | 59% | 14 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 58 of 95 | 61% | 56 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 55 of 84 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 10 of 16 | 62% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 44 of 72 | 61% | 42 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 64 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In this pivotal co-main event, renowned karateka “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC) will try to keep his place in the top echelon of the welterweight division. Against him will be Muhammad (19-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC), who will aim to find the secret of his power. Herb Dean will be the referee for this interesting stylistic clash, and the fighters are happy to touch gloves in a good show of sportsmanship. Thompson is quick to get to his signature style, staying out of range and backing off with kicks to the body and up high. Muhammad eats a hook kick in the face, and he shrugs it off so that he can shoot in for a double. “Wonderboy” stops it from succeeding and stings Muhammad with a left hand, and Muhammad is suddenly in trouble. Thompson spins with a kick that clatters off Muhammad’s dome, and he wears it well and blocks a few strikes that come at him. Thompson jumps forward with a strike, and Muhammad manages to power through and go for a takedown. Grabbing Thompson by his waist as they are both on their seats, they begin to slug it out from close range like a seated version of Frye vs. Takayama. After they continue to trade punches, Thompson walks his way back up using the fence, and he shucks off a standing guillotine try from Muhammad. Tight in the clinch, Thompson rips a few knees up high until Muhammad snags hold of a single to put Thompson down. “Wonderboy” manages to land on a knee so he is not flat down, and he grabs the fence to stand back up. Muhammad grapples him from behind, before turning things around to elevate Thompson and put him down. Muhammad lands on Thompson’s back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke before flattening Thompson out with strikes. “Remember the Name” rains down punches from this advantageous position, pounding on the side of Thompson’s head while Thompson turtles up. Thompson protects himself from the brunt of the strikes that should not merit a stoppage, and he turns to his side as Muhammad continues to work him over from above. A few punches land to the back of the head, and Muhammad bludgeons Thompson relentlessly until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to start off the second round, and Thompson is the immediate aggressor with side kicks to the face. Thompson slings a high kick with his rear leg, and the kick is blocked but still knocks Muhammad back a step. “Wonderboy” springs in with a strike and dances out of the way, and he lands cleanly to ring Muhammad’s bell. Thompson tees off on Muhammad until Muhammad has had enough of the striking, and he closes in to latch on to Thompson and wrench him down to the mat. Thompson works his way back up, only for Muhammad to lift him up and hold his ankle to put Thompson back down flat on the canvas. The Chicago native gets into half guard, where he isolates Thompson’s right arm to set up a kimura. When that does not succeed, Muhammad begins to batter Thompson’s thigh with elbows. Thompson pulls his arm free, only for Muhammad to continue elbowing the same spot. Thompson edges his way to the wall, and he posts on his knee to stand up as Muhammad torques on his arm for a straight armlock or kimura. Thompson appears to pay it no mind, but he is still trapped on the floor with no way up as precious seconds tick off the clock. Muhammad abandons the grip so that he can turn around and get off ground-and-pound, introducing his elbow to Thompson’s face repeatedly. Thompson eats several of these shots but blocks others, and Muhammad hacks at him with elbows until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 3
Muhammad instantly starts the round with a takedown try, and “Wonderboy” cannot stave him off with a few strikes as Muhammad advances relentlessly. Muhammad lifts Thompson’s leg all the way up in the air before putting Thompson down on the ground, and he ties Thompson’s legs up to keep him trapped. With his arm around Thompson’s back, he is able to smack Thompson in the face with short left hands. The former title challenger bursts back upright, and he fights off a subsequent takedown try with a choke attempt from above. Muhammad doggedly pursues another takedown, and he secures it in the center of the mat to put Thompson down at the midpoint of the final round. Muhammad claims half guard, and he calmly controls his opponent with light but effective ground-and-pound that keeps Dean away from standing them up. “Remember the Name” remembers that he can embrace the grind like the best of them, and he does exactly that, passing to side control and working Thompson over with elbows and hammerfists. Muhammad looks to pass to mount, but “Wonderboy” is able to at least keep that moral victory in his pocket as he is getting thoroughly outworked on the ground. Muhammad slashes Thompson with multiple elbows until the final horn ends this grueling match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.
Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.
Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.
The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.
Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.
The MMA Guru picks Stephen Thompson to win by 30-27 decision. He thinks Thompson's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Muhammad. He notes Muhammad struggles to get takedowns against top-level opponents and Thompson stuffed Burns' takedowns. He expects Thompson to out-strike Muhammad easily, though he jokes Thompson is too nice to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 101 of 126 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 59 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 29 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 18 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 27 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 45 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 22 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 29 of 43 | 67% | 17 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 19 of 53 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Stephen Thompson | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 10 of 18 | 55% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 8 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 9 of 29 | 31% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 11 of 13 | 84% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Stephen Thompson | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The co-main event comes in the form of a potential welterweight title eliminator between recent challenger Burns (19-4, 12-4 UFC) and “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-4-1, 11-4-1 UFC). This interesting style matchup that presents a striker against a grappler – but that grappler has heavy hands – could provide for some intriguing action. Looking on is referee Marc Goddard, and there is nothing but respect between these two 170-pounders who touch gloves to seal the cage. Thompson keeps a traditionally wide stance, and Burns mimics the same stance as the two try to find a way in. Neither throw a single strike for the first 45 seconds, when Thompson lands a light leg kick. Burns ducks down to throw an overhand right, and he tries to chase “Wonderboy” down and land a huge shot and a head kick, but they come up short. Burns dives low for a single, and Thompson defends against the fence and fights off a subsequent double leg takedown attempt as well. Burns continues to grind in this position as the crowd starts to turn on the fighters, so Burns knees Thompson in the thigh a few times. This stalemate continues as Goddard calls for them to work, so Burns drops down for another takedown try that comes up short. Burns picks up a single and lifts Thompson up to set him down, where he finally gets the takedown he was seeking. Burns hold on from a half guard position as he looks to tie up an arm-triangle choke, and when “Wonderboy” scoots to the fence, Burns lands a few right hands on him. Burns has the karateka locked down in this position, keeping him grounded as Thompson tries to work his way up the fence. Thompson posts off a hand to get to his knees, and Burns thumps him in the chest with a hard knee. Burns delivers right hands on the chin until Thompson stands up, and the two men break away with seconds to go. As Burns charges in, Thompson clips Burns with a right hand, and drops Burns to a knee. When Burns stands up, Thompson fires off a head kick, and the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
The glove touch begins the second round, and “Wonderboy” starts off with a solid kick to Burns’ calf. Thompson switches stances and avoids a head kick to come up short with a spinning back kick of his own. Thompson whiffs on a series of punches, as Burns backs off to a safe distance before re-engaging to fire off a right hand. Thompson gets off a kick to the body, and Burns returns fire with a leg kick. “Wonderboy” irritates his foe with a few side kicks to the leg and body, and he parries a leaping Burns with ease. Thompson’s toes reach the midsection when he kicks, and he stands tall when Burns kicks his thigh back. Thompson slings a head kick that gets blocked in time, and a spinning heel kick gets through the guard and may have hurt Burns. Burns charges like a man possessed, throwing caution to the wind and catching Thompson on the end of a right hand. “Wonderboy” hops out of the way and stings Burns with a straight left hand, splitting the guard and making Burns retreat. The karate fighter kicks the lead leg, follows it with a few punches, and ignores a leg kick that comes his direction. When Burns advances, Thompson is there with a side kick to the chest to push the Brazilian back. Thompson pulls his leg free when Burns advances to take him down, and he circles out to crack Burns with a right hand. Thompson stays elusive and defensive as he reaches a right hand out, and Burns intercepts him with a leg kick and a right hand. Burns leaps forward and hits a takedown from a long distance, putting Thompson on his seat against the fence. Thompson returns to a knee at the 10-second clapper, and both men start clubbing each other with right hands like a grounded version of Frye-Takayama until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 3
The welterweights touch both hands to begin the last round, and “Wonderboy” steps back to get off a head kick that is partially blocked. A side kick that follows splits Burns’ guard and smacks him in the face, and Thompson looks to follow it up with a few lunging punches. Burns walks right into a right hand, and Burns smiles at him and gets punched a few more times as his smile fades. Thompson has Burns backpedaling as he lands whenever he throws a strike, and Burns is stuck watching the karateka do work on him. Burns takes a flush spinning heel kick to the side of the head and drops to a knee, and when he scrambles back to his feet, he throws hands with reckless abandon. Thompson welcomes it and lands a few more strikes as he backs away to a safe distance, and Burns crashes in to try to take him down. The attempt fails, but the redoubled effort for Burns puts Thompson on his back in side control. With Burns content to sit in this position as precious seconds tick off the clock, both men punch one another in the side again and again. Burns holds tight to keep “Wonderboy” stuck on the ground, pulling Thompson’s wrist out when the American looks to stand back up. Burns embraces the grind to pepper Thompson with short left hands, racking up control time and scoring points with these punches. Thompson tries to pull himself back up, but Burns is on him like fly paper until he wraps his arm around Thompson’s neck. Thompson sits down instead of falling into this choke, and Burns elects to blatantly punch him several times to the back of the head and neck. The crowd does not appreciate this final exchange, and the fans shower the Brazilian with boos as the fight concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Wonderboy, citing his in-and-out karate style and excellent distance management. He thinks Burns will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Thompson's recent performances have been phenomenal, especially against Geoff Neal. He plans to bet Thompson by stoppage or decision no action, expecting a decision but hedging.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson to win by knockout, specifically a third-round knockout. He highlights Thompson's striking advantage, range management, and takedown defense (78%). He notes that Burns will struggle to close the distance and take Thompson down, and that failing to get takedowns will gas Burns. He compares it to Burns' fight with Dan Hooker, where Hooker picked Burns apart. He also mentions Thompson's durability, having only been knocked out once by a fluke.
Cody picks Thompson, citing his superior striking, range, cardio, and speed. He notes Burns' power and puncher's chance but questions his durability and cardio. He mentions Thompson's takedown defense and the big cage favoring him. He thinks Thompson wins by decision, possibly hurting Burns.
Daniel Levi picks Stephen Thompson (Wonderboy) to win. He believes Thompson will control the minutes with his striking, using sidekicks, jabs, and picking Burns apart. He notes that Burns has poor striking defense and gets hit too much, which is dangerous against a precise striker like Thompson. He acknowledges Burns' one-punch knockout power and elite jiu-jitsu, but thinks Thompson's takedown defense and toughness will hold up. He also questions Burns' mindset coming off a title loss.
Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating there are different levels even among top-five fighters. He believes Thompson's length and movement will give Burns fits, similar to how Usman's jab troubled Burns. He doesn't see Burns getting close enough to grapple and expects Thompson to win a decision.
I'm on Wonderboy Thompson here. I think Burns' wins at 170 are over the hill fighters like Woodley, Maia, and Gunnar Nelson. Thompson's movement, blitz attacks, and ability to fight from both stances will give Burns fits. Burns will struggle to take Thompson down and will slow down from whiffing. I expect Thompson to knock him out, probably in the third round. I like Thompson by KO and round 3 props.
Paul picks Thompson, agreeing with Cody. He emphasizes Thompson's movement, the big cage, and his ability to frustrate pressure fighters. He notes Burns' cardio issues and the fact that Thompson has faced better wrestlers. He thinks Thompson wins by decision.
The Guru picks Thompson by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Burns to come out aggressive in the first round, landing leg kicks and some big shots, possibly wobbling Thompson, but Thompson will invest in sidekicks to the body and leg. In the second round, Burns will become more patient and run into Thompson's point-fighting striking game, with Thompson defending takedowns and circling out. By the third round, Burns will be a shell of himself, and Thompson will pick him apart from the outside. The Guru believes Burns will blow his wad early and fail to get the finish, leading to a decision loss.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 171 of 406 | 42% | 191 of 428 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 85 of 179 | 47% | 110 of 205 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 7 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 36 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 33 of 80 | 41% | 41 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 35 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 5 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 49 of 115 | 42% | 54 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 171 of 406 | 42% | 124 of 354 | 41 of 46 | 6 of 6 | 165 of 398 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 85 of 179 | 47% | 71 of 161 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 79 of 169 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 25 of 66 | 37% | 15 of 54 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 7 of 30 | 23% | 6 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 30 of 70 | 42% | 17 of 57 | 12 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 15 of 25 | 60% | 8 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 33 of 80 | 41% | 27 of 72 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 76 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 15 of 33 | 45% | 13 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 34 of 75 | 45% | 25 of 65 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 72 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 15 of 31 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Stephen Thompson | 49 of 115 | 42% | 40 of 106 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 48 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 33 of 60 | 55% | 31 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Geoff Neal to win the main event, rounding out his lineup. He expresses high confidence, stating 'I'm very confident and Jeff Neal get the job done.' No specific reasoning is given beyond confidence.
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal over Stephen Thompson, citing Neal's youth (7 years younger), higher volume, and ability to close distance in the smaller cage. He notes Thompson's low volume in past fights and his history of being dropped (four times in UFC). Brady predicts Neal will knock out Thompson in the second round, emphasizing Neal's power and speed advantage.
The host believes Wonderboy's karate stance, in-and-out movement, and counter-striking will give Geoff Neal problems. He notes Neal has never faced a striker of Thompson's caliber and may struggle with the range and five-round pace. The host predicts a late finish (round 4 or 5) as Neal's gas tank fades.
The Guru picks Stephen Thompson, citing his superior striking and movement. He believes Thompson's footwork and reach advantage will neutralize Geoff Neal's power, especially over five rounds. He notes Neal has gassed in past fights and has only beaten plodding strikers, while Thompson's unorthodox style will be too much. He predicts a 49-46 unanimous decision, with Neal possibly winning the first round but Thompson dominating the rest.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 138 of 242 | 57% | 138 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 77 of 175 | 44% | 77 of 175 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 51 of 91 | 56% | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 1 | 55 of 101 | 54% | 55 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 14 of 47 | 29% | 14 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 138 of 242 | 57% | 111 of 212 | 21 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 126 of 227 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 12 |
| Vicente Luque | 77 of 175 | 44% | 26 of 107 | 9 of 18 | 42 of 50 | 76 of 172 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 32 of 50 | 64% | 25 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 30 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 38 of 67 | 56% | 10 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 26 | 37 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 51 of 91 | 56% | 43 of 82 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 50 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 25 of 61 | 40% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 9 | 14 of 18 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 55 of 101 | 54% | 43 of 88 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 12 |
| Vicente Luque | 14 of 47 | 29% | 7 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Kevin Holland - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 56 of 91 | 61% | 137 of 176 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 46 of 95 | 48% | 67 of 121 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 48 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 25 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 64 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 56 of 91 | 61% | 24 of 55 | 10 of 11 | 22 of 25 | 39 of 68 | 11 of 15 | 6 of 8 |
| Randy Brown | 46 of 95 | 48% | 25 of 65 | 14 of 17 | 7 of 13 | 31 of 75 | 12 of 17 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 20 of 34 | 58% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Randy Brown | 18 of 39 | 46% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 19 of 31 | 61% | 6 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Brown | 14 of 26 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 17 of 26 | 65% | 9 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Brown | 14 of 30 | 46% | 9 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 19 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.
Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.
Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.
Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.
Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.
Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.
James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.
Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.
Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.
Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 52 of 137 | 37% | 76 of 162 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 49 of 95 | 51% | 50 of 99 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 2:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 22 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 23 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 26 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 31 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 52 of 137 | 37% | 23 of 96 | 9 of 13 | 20 of 28 | 49 of 127 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
| Mike Malott | 49 of 95 | 51% | 35 of 73 | 10 of 15 | 4 of 7 | 44 of 88 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 9 of 31 | 29% | 3 of 22 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Mike Malott | 12 of 29 | 41% | 8 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 23 of 70 | 32% | 12 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 11 | 22 of 68 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 26 of 42 | 61% | 17 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 20 of 36 | 55% | 8 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 13 | 19 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 11 of 24 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-115); Holland (+100)
Round 1
The co-main event comes in the form of what should be an all-action welterweight affair that could have a little something for everybody. The fan-favorite Holland (28-14, 1 NC; 15-11, 1 NC UFC) will have to be the villain tonight as he goes into hostile territory to take on the last Canadian-born fighter on the night in Malott (12-2-1, 5-1 UFC). The two will hunt for bonus cash—and there is steep competition tonight—while regionally unpopular referee Dan Miragliotta watches on. Holland tries fairly hard to get a glove touch, but the Canadian wants nothing to do with it.
Holland puts his hand down and his foot up, to start kicking Malott in the lead leg. Malott is struggling to get in on the longer Holland, so Holland can pepper his front leg on either side without worrying about something coming back. When Malott responds with his own leg kick, Holland hops and swats out a left hand. The two appear to clash heads when coming at one another, and Malott unloads with a short combination before Holland can reach him. Malott fires off a body kick, and Holland knocks him off his feet with a fierce right hand. Holland considers slamming down high-amplitude hammerfists, and he leaps on top and delivers some damage. Holland stands back up and starts punching the Canadian in the thigh. Malott hits a sneaky sweep to put Holland on his seat.
Holland fights his way back up, and when Malott tries for a mat return, Holland bends like a reed in the wind and rolls all the way through the takedown attempt to end up on top. The welterweights scramble back to their feet, and clashing kicks leads to Malott inadvertently kicking Holland in the groin. Miragliotta calls time, and Holland laughs it off and is good to go within 20 seconds. They resume, and Holland appears fine, as he reaches Malott and knocks him back with a clean left hand. “Trailblazer” leaps at his man with a right hand, and he keeps his balance when Malott wraps him up to drag him down. When they tie up, Malott drills him in the groin with a knee, and Holland is not so jovial about it as he collapses to his knees.
Miragliotta tells the replay officials that he could hear the impact of the second groin strike, and he tells Malott that he knows that it was an accident but reminds him that it was two infractions already and the second appears to have clearly compromised the Texan. Holland gets to his knees but is still clutching his groin, and he reaches in to try to adjust himself and nearly exposes himself on camera. The replay officials appear to be confused, even though it is clear on the video that there was contact on the cup. Holland tries to stand after two-and-a-half minutes, and he is frustrated that the crowd is booing him and pulls himself up to his feet all while shaking his head repeatedly. Miragliotta tells Holland to take as much time as he needs, which is a smidge over a minute remaining. Miragliotta gives Malott a stern warning for the second groin shot, with no point deduction as commentator Daniel Cormier laments there is no consistency in regards to officiating these days with a fighter earlier losing a point from the first foul. Holland tries as hard as he can to shake off the injury, and he tells Miragliotta he is good to go 15 seconds later than stoppage time.
He is still in serious pain, and he takes more time to tap gloves with Malott and backpedals. Holland still adjusts his cup while dodging swings aimed at his head, and Malott allows him to recover even longer before going at him with a right hand and a head kick that are out of range. Holland gets up close to deliver an uppercut, and he bounces back in pain. Holland walks off before time elapses, and Malott throws his hands in the air out of frustration. The round ends with Holland suffering greatly, and it’s anyone’s guess what will happen between rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 2
Miragliotta calls in the doctor between rounds to check on Holland, who has not yet recovered. The doctor tells Holland that he will have to stop the fight if Holland cannot keep going, and again confusion and chaos is about as they are trying to ask him if he is able to continue. Holland doesn’t say yes or no, and instead grimaces in pain and adjusts himself. As he waits, eventually someone signals that he can keep going and that he cannot keep taking more time. The minute break may have been doubled based on that. Holland flashes his jab to keep his range and not let the Canadian to get him as he still tries to bounce around and relieve the pressure. Malott tosses out a half-hearted front kick, and Holland responds with a heavier one. Malott opens up with a flurry of fists, and Holland shoulder rolls them and takes a body kick. He keeps being his jab, and wings a clubbing right that is easily blocked, unable to put much power behind his punches. He ducks a takedown attempt and scoops a left around the guard to surprise his opponent. Holland swats out with lefts, and Malott tags him with a right hand. Malott’s front kick reaches the target of the jaw, and the replies from “Trailblazer” are a front kick and one to the calf.
The Texan narrowly avoids a left hand and pitches out a side kick, and they crack one another with simultaneous right hands. Holland slips back, and a front kick brushes the top of Malott’s shorts. Holland takes a heavy left hand and gathers his thoughts, sticking Malott with a low kick and a front kick. Holland sits down on a crisp right hand, and Malott walks through it. Holland adjusts his athletic support that is still bothering him, and a clinch leads to nowhere so they split up. Malott walks Holland down and decks him with several punches and a knee, and Holland rebounds off the fencing and fires back with a right hand to keep Malott honest. Holland tries for a one-two, and he is intercepted on the way out. Holland bloodies the Canadian’s nose with a jab and an uppercut that follows, and Malott tries to drive him back with a front kick but is elbowed for his handiwork. The round ends with Malott’s nose positively gushing blood.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 3
Holland is still messed up from the groin shots, and tells Malott to keep things clean. They get down to it, with scores possibly two up for Malott or all tied up. Malott jabs the body with his toes outstretched, and Holland chips at his front leg a few times before darting him behind two left hands. Malott counters him up top, and lets Holland throw a kick to go for a big left hand. Holland re-opens Malott’s nose with jabs, and Malott takes a deep breath and blitzes forward. Holland keeps himself largely clear of danger, although the Canadian catches him with a few strikes. Holland’s own offense bounds off the guard, other than a stomping kick to the knee that briefly hyperextends it. Malott reaches out with a push kick to the upper chest, and Holland’s response is to the calf. Holland scores a single right hand and leans back from the obligatory counter, and Malott slides to the side and gets off a side kick and one high. Holland scoots his way forward and eats a few punches.
Holland lands a one-two, and Malott appears to get his attention as Holland bends over and briefly considers a takedown. He bails on it to stand up and further bloody up the Canadian. Malott runs at his opponent and lifts him off the ground, and Holland’s arm goes out of the cage as he apologizes and says he is not grabbing anything but just has long arms. Malott pulls him back inside and down flat on his back, and he smothers “Trailblazer” and bashes him with right hands. Holland uses upkicks and butterfly hooks to frame off, only for Malott to slice through and climb into half guard with 60 seconds remaining. Malott threatens with an arm-triangle choke, stepping over to full mount and then to the side to complete the submission. The ultra-slippery Holland reverse-somersaults to somehow get out of the submission, and he worms his way back to his feet with Malott right after him. The Canadian bullies him to the wire, and looks for a mat return to wrap things up. Instead, he elbows Holland once, and they shake hands after time expires with no bad blood between them. That was certainly a fight of all time.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott (30-27 Malott)
The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mike Malott, citing his high fight IQ, technical improvements after the Magny loss, and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Kevin Holland's inconsistency and poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, calling it an all-time low. He trusts Malott's control and power.
Big Brady has zero trust in Kevin Holland after his loss to Daniel Rodriguez, calling him a dumbass and declining. He questions Malott's durability and cardio but picks him by default. He predicts Malott takes Holland down and submits him, noting Holland's ground game stinks.
Cody picks Malott, citing Kevin Holland's recent durability issues and high fight frequency. He notes Holland was knocked down twice by Daniel Rodriguez, a sign of declining chin. Malott has a wrestling advantage and can mix takedowns with striking. Cody believes Malott will win by decision or late stoppage, especially with home crowd support.
Connor picks Malott, emphasizing that Holland cannot be trusted to fight disciplined. He notes that Malott is proficient and consistent, with sharp boxing in the pocket. Connor points out that Holland's approach of 'having fun' leads to messy fights, and his chin may be deteriorating after getting hurt by Daniel Rodriguez. He believes Malott can outwork Holland.
James admits he has a poor track record betting on Malott fights but picks Malott due to his skill set and potential improvements after the Neil Magny loss. He questions Kevin Holland's recent form and durability, noting Holland's poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez. James expects a slow-paced fight and predicts Malott via decision, though he is not confident.
The host thinks this is a tough stylistic matchup for Malott. He believes Holland can pick Malott apart from distance with his speed, range, and distance work, and will eventually find a big shot to put Malott away.
Paul picks Holland, arguing that the D-Rod fight was on short notice and Holland has had three months to prepare. He believes Holland's length and reach advantage will be key, and that Malott may gas as he did against Magny. Paul sees value in Holland as a dog and plans to bet him.
The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott over Kevin Holland. He notes Malott's submission skills and takedowns, and his game plan against Neil Magny. He criticizes Holland's inconsistency and chin issues. He predicts Malott will chew at the leg, get takedowns, and finish by arm triangle submission in round two.
Zane picks Malott, citing his composure, defensive soundness, and ability to pick targets. He notes that Malott can outwrestle Holland and kick his legs. Zane is concerned about Holland's inconsistency and recent poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, where Holland made terrible errors and got hurt. He believes Malott will fight a smart fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 82 of 173 | 47% | 111 of 207 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 77 of 149 | 51% | 111 of 189 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 34 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 37 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 82 of 173 | 47% | 53 of 126 | 13 of 22 | 16 of 25 | 60 of 137 | 17 of 27 | 5 of 9 |
| Kevin Holland | 77 of 149 | 51% | 49 of 106 | 13 of 26 | 15 of 17 | 54 of 107 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 40 of 83 | 48% | 20 of 50 | 6 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 39 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 29 of 60 | 48% | 12 of 30 | 8 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Kevin Holland | 31 of 55 | 56% | 27 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 27 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 30 of 62 | 48% | 25 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 35 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 8 |
| Kevin Holland | 17 of 34 | 50% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)
Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.
Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.
Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.
The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 44 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 35 of 64 | 54% | 39 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 24 of 46 | 52% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 58 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 10 | 26 of 56 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 22 of 40 | 55% | 13 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 35 of 64 | 54% | 23 of 51 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 46 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-265), Luque (+215)
Round 1
The referee for our main card opener is Keith Peterson. Luque takes the center of the Octagon, while Holland is already talking. Luque catches a kick, but Holland lands a half-dozen punches and makes his opponent pay for just standing there. A left hook from Luque hits the shoulder of Holland. Luque follows up a left hook with a nice leg kick. Holland lands a nice elbow that hurts Luque, who fires back with an overhand that keeps Holland from pressuring. Luque lands a double jab, which isn't enough to keep Holland from talking every second of this fight. There is a huge knot on the side of Luque's head where the elbow landed. It looks nasty. Luque stuns Holland with a left hook, but Holland responds nicely by slipping a punch and landing a right hook. Nice jab to the body by Holland. Luque lands a leg kick, which allows Holland to land a right hand. High kick from Holland is blocked.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
The round starts with Holland missing a huge right hook. Luque is struggling with the length of Holland, who is able to attack from a distance. Holland catches a kick from Luque and pushes him to the ground. Luque tries to get up, but Holland sinks in a brabo choke. It looks tight, and Luque is forced to tap.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque via Submission (Brabo Choke); R2, 1:03.
Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.
Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.
The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.
Zane picks Kevin Holland, noting that when Holland fights on the back foot he uses his jab effectively and looks like a complete boxer. He believes Luque's slower reactions and declining chin will be exploited by Holland's reach and counterpunching. Zane thinks this matchup favors Holland's style, similar to his win over Jack Della Maddalena.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 30 of 44 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 9:29 |
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 55 of 89 | 61% | 138 of 178 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 31 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 73 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 34 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 15 of 24 | 62% | 10 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 9 |
| Kevin Holland | 55 of 89 | 61% | 30 of 57 | 15 of 20 | 10 of 12 | 15 of 34 | 22 of 27 | 18 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Kevin Holland | 19 of 37 | 51% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 13 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Kevin Holland | 17 of 23 | 73% | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 9 | |
| 3 | Gunnar Nelson | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Kevin Holland | 19 of 29 | 65% | 11 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nelson (-130), Holland (+110)
Round 1
Dan Movahedi will referee Nelson’s first fight since March 2023. Holland opens with a pair of inside leg kicks. Nelson is operating from his usual karate stance. Another leg kick for Holland, who has a significant reach edge. Nelson tries to charge in, but he’s rebuffed by Holland. Holland with a long jab and right hand. Nelson shoots and gets Holland down. Holland is active from his back, threatening with submissions, but Nelson is a savvy grappler. Nelson stands and picks Holland up with one arm and both fighters share a laugh. Nelson goes back to work from above, but he’ll have to navigate his foe’s long limbs. Holland is landing hammerfists from his bck on occasion. Nelson with a solid right from top position. Holland lands an elbow from his back. Nelson is struggling to find openings for offense from above. The Iceland native drops a short elbow. Nelson stands and has to worry about Holland’s upkicks before moving back on top. They stand late in the round, and Holland drops Nelson with a one-two. He hovers over Nelson and drops heavy standing to ground shots. Nelson is saved by the horn, but Holland might've landed one after the buzzer.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
Holland is aggressive, and he punches his way into the clinch behind an uppercut. Holland with a knee and a foot stomp. They separate and size each other up from range. Holland with a solid inside low kick. Holland is measuring the right hand that dropped Nelson in Round 1. Nelson is working hard for a takedown, but Holland is able to stay upright. Nelson adjusts against the fence, but Holland maintains his footing. Nelson is clinging to the leg, and Holland stays busy with short strikes. Nelson pulls Holland off the fence and drags him to the canvas with about 2:00 to go. Nelson is in top position, but Holland is active again, both with his guard and strikes from his back. Nelson is simply holding position as Holland continues to work from his back. Holland with an upkick as Nelson stands. Nelson works his way back into full guard as the round draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 3
Holland chips away at the legs of Nelson before they collide in the clinch. Holland lands a knee in close. Nelson counters with uppercuts, but another Holland knee gets through. Nelson decides against continuing to trade offense in the clinch, and he changes levels for a takedown. Nelson moves into full mount with ease. Holland kicks off the fence to remove Nelson from mount, but the grappling ace is still in top position. Holland is warned to remove his toes from the cage. Nelson absorbs a series of heel strikes to to the head. He responds by dropping a right from above. Nelson transitions to an arm triangle during a scramble. He’s close to the cage, but it looks pretty deep. Holland looks comfortable for now, and he’s able to eventually escape to his feet. Holland pushes Nelson into the fence. Nelson is looking at the clock now. Holland with a knee to the midsection. Back at range, Holland connects with a front kick. Nelson closes the distance but eats another knee for his efforts. Holland denies a takedown and the welterweights battle in the clinch. Holland breaks free and falls to his back after missing on a knee before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.
Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.
The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.
The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.
Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 27 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 27 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 11 of 13 | 84% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
| Kevin Holland | 12 of 21 | 57% | 11 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 11 of 13 | 84% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
| Kevin Holland | 12 of 21 | 57% | 11 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)
Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.
Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.
Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.
Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.
Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.
The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.
Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 57 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 57 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 19 of 33 | 57% | 16 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 |
| Kevin Holland | 18 of 28 | 64% | 5 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 19 of 33 | 57% | 16 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 |
| Kevin Holland | 18 of 28 | 64% | 5 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)
Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.
The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.
Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.
Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.
Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.
Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.
Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.
The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.
Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Stephen Thompson but is hesitant due to Thompson's age (39). He thinks Thompson is the better overall striker with incredible footwork, but notes the fight is basically a pick'em, so he won't bet the moneyline. He plans to wait for props, possibly betting Kevin Holland inside the distance or decision no action, because Holland is younger and dangerous. He expects Thompson to win but won't risk moneyline on a 39-year-old.
Big Brady picks Holland to win by knockout in the second or third round, citing Holland's youth (nine years younger), height, reach, power, durability, and Thompson's age (39) and layoff. He notes Thompson has been knocked down multiple times and Holland has never been knocked out. He also mentions Holland may mix in takedowns.
Cody agrees with Paul and provides extensive reasoning. He highlights that Holland's path to victory is to fight in a way he never does, while Thompson's karate style, output, and five-round experience favor him. He notes Thompson's takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Holland will exploit it. He also mentions the line moving towards Holland as a reason to take Thompson now.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to knock out Stephen Thompson. He notes Thompson's age (approaching 40), suspect chin, and history of being dropped (by Ellenberger, Woodley, Till). He believes Holland's straight right will find the opening and that Holland closes the show when he hurts opponents. He also mentions Thompson's submission defense is good but that Holland's reach and power are key.
The host leans towards Thompson, noting that Thompson is a superior striker and should have the advantage in a striking match. He mentions that Thompson's karate style and ability to hit without getting hit will be key. However, he is cautious about Thompson's age and the possibility of Holland using grappling. He would prefer a better price on Thompson (plus 150) before betting.
Paul sees this as a 50/50 fight but likes Thompson at plus money. He notes Thompson's five-round experience and thinks Holland won't shoot takedowns effectively. He believes Thompson can edge out a decision or even finish if Holland gets frustrated. He also mentions the under 4.5 rounds as a possibility.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, citing Thompson's lack of a backup plan if he faces trouble on the feet. He notes Holland can mix in grappling and has a reach advantage. He predicts Holland will use his goofy style to catch Thompson off guard and finish him by d'arce choke in round three.
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