Angelo is very confident in Asu Almabayev, calling the -162 line a bargain. He highlights Nicolau's declining chin and striking vulnerability, while Almabayev is a dominant grappler with flashy striking and phenomenal control on top. He believes Almabayev wins 9 out of 10 times, either by knockout or wrestling dominance. He sees no path to victory for Nicolau if his chin fails or if he gets taken down.

Big Brady leans toward Matheus Nicolau by decision. He notes Almabayev's hype is based on weak competition, while Nicolau has elite takedown defense (93%) and good striking, though he lacks volume and has a questionable chin. He doubts Almabayev can take Nicolau down or knock him out, so he expects Nicolau to stuff takedowns and win a close decision.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nicolau. He emphasizes that Nicolau is a pure counter puncher who is difficult to close down, and that Almabayev's game may not serve him well if he can't get early takedowns. Connor also notes that Almabayev's recent wins are over slower, less focused fighters, and that Nicolau represents a big step up. He doubts Almabayev can knock out Nicolau, as Almabayev rarely finishes fights.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Nicolau is the veteran but will have a hard time against the grappler and relentless style of Almabayev. Almabayev will do a good job closing the distance and keeping Nicolau on the defensive, allowing him to grind out a win on the scorecards.

The Guru picks Nicolau despite acknowledging he gets chinned sometimes. He believes Nicolau has elite takedown defense and will stuff Almabayev's takedowns, pointing out that Almabayev's wins came against lesser competition like Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. He sees Nicolau as more well-rounded and expects a split decision win.

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking, accuracy, and grappling chops. He acknowledges Alex Perez is a dog who looked good against Muhammad Mokaev, but notes Perez didn't let his hands go in that fight. He worries about Nicolau coming off a knockout loss, which could affect his chin or aggression. He expects Nicolau to be calculated and patient, using his speed and technique to win.

Cody picks Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter, better suited for five rounds. He notes Perez's weight cut issues and short notice, and believes Nicolau's efficiency and durability will carry him to a decision or late stoppage.

Daniel believes Nicolau has no technical weaknesses, with excellent boxing, takedown defense from Nova União, and strong jiu-jitsu. He notes Nicolau's chin is a concern but thinks Perez is overrated and that Nicolau will control the tempo and outpoint him. He picks Nicolau to win and take the next step toward title aspirations.

Perez has a wrestling and grappling advantage over Nicolau. He should be able to take the fight to the ground and control Nicolau from top position. Nicolau is the better striker, but Perez's wrestling should be the difference. I expect Perez to win on the scorecards, possibly with a TKO if he batters the lead leg.

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Nicolau's cleaner, more efficient work over five rounds. He highlights Perez's durability issues and low volume, and expects a decision win for Nicolau with a possible late stoppage if Perez tires.

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking and methodical grappling. He believes Nicolau's technical striking will overcome Royval's chaos, and that Royval won't be able to take Nicolau down, making it a kickboxing match where Nicolau shines. He notes Royval was dropped badly by Schnell. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Nicolau at -155.

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He describes Royval as a wild, unique fighter who thrives in chaos, while Nicolau is calm and composed. He believes Royval's style will force a brawl, and notes Nicolau has been knocked out before. He expects fireworks and a finish.

Cody thinks Nicolau is technically sound and should weather Royval's early chaos. He notes Royval is dangerous early but tends to fade and is injury-prone. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Nicolau's counter striking is excellently timed and that he has the wrestling to handle Royval's scrambles. He also notes that Nicolau is a solid positional grappler and can be the one with key switch-ups.

Royval's chaos and output will overwhelm Nicolau, who tends to have close fights and low output. Royval's scrambling and submission threat create opportunities. Nicolau's discipline may crack under pressure. Royval can finish inside the distance, as his style leads to finishes. Under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Paul agrees, calling Royval 'frail' and noting his tendency to get finished. He thinks Nicolau's accurate counter-striking and durability will lead to a finish or clear decision. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, praising his technical, composed style and BJJ background. He believes Nicolau will read Royval's wild, tornado-like approach and make him pay, potentially by submission or KO. He notes Royval's size and unpredictability but thinks Nicolau's polish and 93% takedown defense will be decisive.

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter. He notes Nicolau has technical striking and competent grappling, while Schnell is a tough counter-striker with slick BJJ but struggles to get takedowns. He acknowledges Schnell's incredible comeback win but says he can't assume Schnell will rise from the dead every fight. He will wait for prop bets.

Big Brady is confident in Nicolau, citing Schnell's poor chin (finished five times) and Nicolau's power (five knockdowns in UFC) and excellent takedown defense (93%). He expects Schnell to fight recklessly and get knocked out in the first round, though he notes Nicolau hasn't finished anyone in the UFC recently but believes the finish is very live.

Cody picks Nicolau but strongly dislikes the -380 line. He highlights Nicolau's low output and close fights, and Schnell's chin but also his volume. He thinks the line is trappy and sees Schnell as a live dog.

Daniel Levi picks Nicolau, citing his better boxing technique, Jiu-Jitsu, and maturity compared to Schnell. He notes Schnell's chin is a weakness and that Nicolau will either finish or ride out a decision. He is not interested at the minus-400 price.

The host picks Nicolau to win inside the distance, noting that Schnell has durability issues and Nicolau has enough power to finish him. He is wary of the minus 365 moneyline but likes the under 2.5 rounds or Nicolau inside the distance. He acknowledges Schnell is often overlooked but believes Nicolau will get his hand raised.

Paul picks Nicolau but is hesitant due to the price. He notes Nicolau's low output and close decisions, and Schnell's chin issues. He thinks Nicolau will win but won't bet it, and sees value on Schnell as a dog.

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau but says his brain and gut are split. He notes that while David Dvořák is more comfortable everywhere, Nicolau has better wrestling and solid grappling, giving him more ways to win. He calls it razor thin.

Big Brady picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog to win a close decision. He notes that Nicolau has fought better competition and is more well-rounded, with solid wrestling and BJJ. He is concerned about Nicolau's chin, as he has been knocked out twice, but believes he can mix in takedowns and win a competitive fight. He thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.

Cody agrees with Nicolau, noting his adaptability and wrestling. He thinks Dvořák is talented but untested. He expects Nicolau to implement a good game plan and win a decision.

Daniel Levi leans David Dvořák, citing Nicolau's questionable chin and confidence since the Dustin Ortiz KO. He thinks Dvořák's pressure and wrestling will grind out a close decision. He acknowledges Nicolau is a live dog and the fight could go either way, but slightly favors Dvořák.

The host favors Dvořák, praising his disciplined striking, combination punching, and takedown defense. He believes Nicolau will be outgunned on the feet and will need to take the fight to the ground to have success, but Dvořák's takedown defense looks good. He expects Dvořák to win a decision, noting that Nicolau has a good chin but will be put on his back foot.

Paul picks Nicolau as an underdog, citing his talent and game planning. He notes Dvořák's lower level of opposition and potential grappling issues. He thinks Nicolau can expose Dvořák's weaknesses and win a close fight.

Angelo picks Tim Elliott, loving his grit, pressure, and volume. He thinks Elliott's dirty style and grappling can overwhelm Nicolau. He notes Elliott's recent wins and considers the money line at plus 167. He acknowledges Elliott's tendency to make stupid decisions but feels he's on a rebirth.

Cody picks Nicolau confidently, noting Elliott's cardio issues and tendency to fade after 7-8 minutes. He points out that Elliott's wins are against low-level competition who have been cut, while Nicolau is a young, improving prospect with elite training. He believes Nicolau's skills and durability will be too much for Elliott.

Daniel Levi favors Matheus Nicolau due to his cleaner hands, black belt jiu-jitsu, and 100% takedown defense, which he attributes to training at Nova União. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's improved cardio and scrambles but believes Nicolau is the more talented fighter in all areas. His only concern is Nicolau's chin, but he notes Elliott is not a knockout threat, so he picks Nicolau to win.

Jacob picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter. He thinks this is a changing of the guard fight. He initially thought Tim Elliott would be the lock of the week but changed his mind after seeing Nicolau's girlfriend is still with him. He believes Nicolau's skills will prevail.

The host confidently picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter everywhere. He praises Nicolau's technical striking and BJJ, and expects him to win striking exchanges and potentially submit Elliott when Elliott gets wild. He notes Elliott's awkward style but believes Nicolau can nullify his takedowns and find a submission in the third round.

Paul picks Nicolau, citing Elliott's improved cardio under James Krause but still limited. He notes Nicolau is on a different level, with wins over rising prospects. He believes Elliott's best days are behind him and Nicolau's youth and skill set will prevail.

Big Brady picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog, citing his well-rounded skills including good wrestling and ground game. He notes that Kape looked poor in his UFC debut, doing more dancing than striking. He expects Nicolau to out-volume Kape on the feet and mix in takedowns, winning a decision. He acknowledges Kape has knockout power but believes Nicolau can avoid getting knocked out.

Daniel Levi picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog, citing his well-rounded game, 100% takedown defense, and superior jiu-jitsu. He believes if Nicolau doesn't get caught, he wins. He notes Nicolau's chin is a concern, but thinks Manel Kape is overrated and has been wobbled before. He also mentions Kape's excuse about slipping due to sweaty feet in the Pantoja fight, and thinks Nicolau's experience in the UFC octagon is an advantage.

Lock leans Nicolau, believing he was wrongfully cut from the UFC and is a legit fighter. He notes Nicolau's solid resume including wins over John Moraga and Louis Smolka, with his only UFC loss being a head kick KO to Dustin Ortiz. Lock is skeptical of Kape after his underwhelming UFC debut against Bruno Silva. He thinks Nicolau will make a statement. He calls Nicolau his most confident dog pick pre-tape.