King Green

King Green

16-12-1
vs
-270 +220
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - King Green
6.38 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.58 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
1.31 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jared Gordon
5.64 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.14 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.78 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
King Green
Moneyline
FanDuel -270
KO/TKO
BetRivers +310
Submission
BetRivers +1600
Decision
FanDuel +110
Jared Gordon
Moneyline
FanDuel +220
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
BetMGM +2200
Decision
BetRivers +400
King Green - Fight History
Submission R1 4:20 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 57 of 87 65% 64 of 95 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Jeremy Stephens 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 57 of 87 65% 64 of 95 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Jeremy Stephens 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 57 of 87 65% 44 of 69 9 of 14 4 of 4 22 of 41 0 of 0 35 of 46
Jeremy Stephens 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 57 of 87 65% 44 of 69 9 of 14 4 of 4 22 of 41 0 of 0 35 of 46
Jeremy Stephens 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens (160: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-340), Stephens (+270)

Round 1
They may have nothing in common, but Green (34-17-1, 1 NC; 15-12-1, 1 NC UFC) and Stephens (29-22, 1 NC; 15-19, 1 NC UFC) are both grizzled, battle-tested veterans—not the type who would be saving Private Ryan, mind you, but gladiators who have faced a veritable who’s who in the sport over the years. Both men celebrate exactly 15 wins inside of the Octagon, and they would very much like one more. Referee Gary Copeland will supervise the proceedings of this catchweight affair, one outside of standard weight classes because Stephens biffed weight by four pounds. He gives up 30% of his purse to Green but no glove touch.
Green’s hands are down the moment the fight begins, and he already is chattering at Stephens trying to encourage him to come in at him. Green points at Stephens after Stephens whiffs. He sneaks in a right hand, and he circles to the side towards Stephens’ power side. Green takes a punch off the forehead and pauses, but it does not take long for him to get going again. Stephens misses by a mile with a haymaker, and Green is comfortable hanging out in boxing range. Stephens kicks his for in the front leg, and Green kicks him in the side and gets clinched. Stephens drills Green with a right hand on the break, and Green signals that it did not land flush. Green stabs a kick to the liver, and he pump-fakes his way in to draw reactions. Green staggers Stephens with a left hand, and he knows it and rifles off three more fists in a hurry. Green winds up with a body kick, but it smashes into Stephens’ groin. Stephens grimaces and Copeland calls time. Stephens looks to work out the pain, and Green immediately goes to apologize. Copeland issues a hard warning to Green, and Stephens is good to go after about 80 seconds. Green again apologizes, and Stephens is good with it as they resume. Stephens stalks Green down, and Green’s hands remain down while he is chirping at him. Green lands a right hand and a kick to the body, and he points at Stephens’ stomach and leaps at him to hit a quick double and put Stephens on his back.
Green starts bombing on Stephens when on top, unleashing a long stream of punches and elbows while sitting on his leg in a quasi-half guard. Green keeps thumping up Stephens with his free left hand, and Stephens doubles up his wrist control on Green’s left arm for a straight armlock or kimura. He twists it to become a kimura to go for a sweep, and Green fights it off and steps into mount to batter Stephens with ground-and-pound.
Green transitions into a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye when Stephens turns, and he rolls to the back to lock it down. Green only has one hook in as he wrenches on the submission, but it is so complete that he does not need the other. Stephens briefly considers going out on his shield but that would be silly. Stephens gives up
, and it is not so much a train that ran him over as it is the Polar Express, with this one-sided shellacking ending with a mean choke. Falling short again, Stephens removes his gloves and may have left him in the center of the Octagon to say farewell to the sport. It is hard to tell with the promotion wholly focused on the triumphant Green.

The Official Result
King Green def. Jeremy Stephens R1 4:20 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green, noting he is the better overall fighter and has shown wrestling in his last fight. He acknowledges concerns about the judges not liking his style and that Jeremy Stephens is always dangerous, but believes Green wins the majority of the time.

"I'm picking Bobby Green here or King Green. He's the better overall fighter."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green, stating he is the better striker and can shoot takedowns if needed. He notes Green's volume and defense, and that Stephens is tough but can be taken down. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds and thinks they are too wide for a 39-year-old. He says he will probably leave the bet alone.

Angelo says he does not like the odds and will probably leave it alone.
"Bobby being a three to one favorite here is a little bit surprising. I'm going to pick him. I think he does win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks King Green, though he admits he can't lay the -325 odds. He notes Green has looked good recently, while Stephens hasn't won in years and looks done. Brady expects Green to outpoint Stephens, mixing in wrestling if needed, and win a decision. He acknowledges Stephens could knock Green out, but considers that a hot take.

"For me it's Green and I think it's Green probably by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Green, citing his superior skills and Stephens' decline. He notes Green's volume and movement, and thinks Stephens is past his prime and not a threat. Cody expects Green to win by decision or submission, but is wary of the minus 400 price.

Green by submission (10 to 1)
"I got Bobby Green. That much is for sure. But yeah, at minus 400, you got Bobby Green is a little bit older."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, agreeing with Zane. He notes Green is slicker on the feet with better footwork, though his reaction times have slowed. Connor points out that Stephens' recent KO losses are to real sluggers, and Green is not that. He expects Green to make Stephens chase and overthrow, and use takedowns to slow him down.

Odds: Green opened -200, now -375; Stephens opened +170, now +310.
"I like it as a matchup. I like Bobby Green getting a chance to shine again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Daniel picks Green, citing his slick striking, speed, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Stephens' knockout power but believes Green is too slick and will avoid getting caught. Daniel expects Green to win via output or submission.

"I'm going Bobby Green to beat Jeremy Stevens."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host passes on this fight. He favors Green but considers the odds too wide (1.30). He notes Green's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and Stephens' power. He mentions the +3.5 fight spread on Stephens as interesting but decides to keep money safe.

No bet. Mentions Stephens +3.5 fight spread as interesting but passes.
"I'm going to be passing on this one because I do think Bobby Green is more likely to win and I don't like Stevens enough in this matchup to take a shot on him at underdog odds."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
King Green

Predicted method: Decision. Green is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (6.38 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to Stephens, who is 38 and has lost four straight. Stephens has power but is hittable (3.14 SApM) and has poor takedown defense (62%). Green's 72% takedown defense should keep the fight standing, where he can outwork Stephens with combinations and movement. Stephens' only path is an early KO, but Green's durability and pace should carry him to a clear decision or late stoppage.

Green by decision +120
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Jacob is confident in King Green, citing that Jeremy Stephens is 1-8 in his last nine fights and hasn't had a knockout since 2018. He believes Green's wrestling and smarter fighting style will be too much, and that Stephens looked clueless on the ground against Mason Jones.

"I like King Green in this fight. People are going to say like, 'Oh, he could get knocked out and stuff.' And yeah, anybody can get knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Lucrative James confidently picks King Green because he sees Jeremy Stephens as a knockout-or-bust fighter who is 1-8 in his last nine MMA fights. He believes Green's boxing and volume will overwhelm Stephens, who lacks the cardio and durability to win a decision. He predicts Green wins by decision, noting Stephens' toughness but inability to keep up with Green's pace.

"I'm definitely taking Bobby Green to get the win. Decision is my prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
King Green

The host picks Green, citing his striking clinic and ability to outbox Stephens. He notes that Stephens lost a boxing match to Chris Avila, which indicates Green should dominate on the feet. He expects Green to win by decision, though he acknowledges Stephens' power and chin. He may look at the decision prop.

Decision prop for Green
"I think Green outstrikes uh Stevens here, wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul picks Green, citing his technical striking and Stephens' lack of recent success. He thinks Green's volume and movement will overwhelm Stephens, who is fighting for a payday. Paul expects Green to win by decision.

"I got Bobby Green winning. Probably by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green, expecting him to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with boxing. He notes Green's recent wins over Daniel Zellhuber and close fight with Fiziev. He thinks Stephens is past his prime and Green will mix in takedowns. He predicts a decision win, though he initially says TKO then corrects to decision.

"I'm going to go with Bobby Bobbert Baratheon Green over Jeremy Stevens by TKO in the second or Nah. Decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green confidently, citing his speed, length, and footwork advantage over the older Stephens. He notes Stephens has lost his kicking and wrestling, and is no longer a knockout artist. Zane believes Green can use reactive takedowns like against Zell Hoover to neutralize Stephens. He sees it as a slow-down version of Green's win over Nasrud Hockbrost.

Odds: Green opened -200, now -375; Stephens opened +170, now +310.
"I like it as a matchup. I like Bobby Green getting a chance to shine again."
KO R2 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 78 21% 17 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
King Green 1 86 of 134 64% 100 of 148 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Zellhuber 0 11 of 46 23% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
King Green 0 41 of 64 64% 41 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:04
2 Daniel Zellhuber 0 6 of 32 18% 6 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
King Green 1 45 of 70 64% 59 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 78 21% 7 of 59 4 of 10 6 of 9 17 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 86 of 134 64% 39 of 72 21 of 29 26 of 33 71 of 119 5 of 5 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Zellhuber 11 of 46 23% 3 of 32 3 of 7 5 of 7 11 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 41 of 64 64% 10 of 23 15 of 19 16 of 22 36 of 59 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Daniel Zellhuber 6 of 32 18% 4 of 27 1 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 45 of 70 64% 29 of 49 6 of 10 10 of 11 35 of 60 0 of 0 10 of 10
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zellhuber (-500); Green (+375)

Round 1
“Golden Boy” Zellhuber (15-3, 3-3 UFC) has appeared a bit gold-plated as of late with two straight losses on his ledger. He will be 13 years the younger of grizzled veteran Green (33-17-1, 1 NC; 14-12-1, 1 NC UFC), who never shies away from a firefight. Before they bang it out, referee Herb Dean clocks them in and the lightweights do not tap gloves together as Green has his mean mug in full display.
Green, hands down by his side as is his custom, swats away Zellhuber’s reaching lead hand a few times. Green steps back as Zellhuber lunges with an overhand right, and the Mexican stumbles, Green catches him, resets and times a takedown to put the two on the mat. Zellhuber spins around as the two wind back up on their feet, where Green starts chattering at him. Zellhuber backs Green to the fence but walks into a straight left hand, and Green follows with a one-two before Zellhuber can get to him. Zellhuber kicks his lead leg, and Green says, “please sir, may I have another.” We’re paraphrasing, but you get the gist. Green keeps goading Zellhuber on, and Zellhuber sells out for a few swings and ends up getting taken down again. Zellhuber once more turns about to escape the ground game and works back to his feet, and once more Green pounds him in the face with a power jab.
Green’s alternating stances and awkward footwork make Zellhuber struggle, and when he lets off offense, he lands it fairly often. Zellhuber is not sure how to proceed, winging a huge right hand in hopes of knocking Green out with one blow, but he does not land it. Green dings him with two punches and slips the counters, brushing off his shoulder mockingly. Zellhuber swings at him, and Green retreats and laughs at him. Zellhuber keeps giving chase, walking into a barrage of punches from “King” and landing some of his own. Green shakes his head and no-sells anything, signaling that nothing has landed flush on him, and he suddenly spins with a back kick that bangs into the shoulder. Green reaches out and slaps the younger man in the face, and Zellhuber answers by kicking him in the face. Zellhuber rips a left to the body, and Green doubles over and has to regain his poker face. Green gets back into his element, grooving back and forth and jamming Zellhuber up with short punches and a hard low kick. He stands before a motionless Zellhuber until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Green
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Green

Round 2
Zellhuber starts off the round aggressively, and Green’s head movement and footwork protect him from anything overtly harmful. Green shrugs off the big swings and uses Zellhuber’s offense against him, tackling the Mexican to the floor. Zellhuber wraps up his right leg around Green’s neck to set up an extremely rare and fairly new buggy choke, and Dean checks on Green a few times to make sure he’s still fine. Green gives a thumbs-up and briefly frees his neck from the clutch of Zellhuber’s right arm cinched with his right leg—look it up, because it’s not easy to describe setting up—but Zellhuber commits to it again. Green slowly, methodically wriggles his neck out of danger, and he pops back to his feet. Zellhuber hurries back after him, and Green wants to take him back down.
Zellhuber stops the effort this time, so Green pushes out front kicks and slugs his man in the face with a hard right hand. Green laughs off what flies his way and fires back heavy left hands, and he mixes in obnoxious kicks to the front leg that partially hyperextend the lead knee. Zellhuber has a left hand skim the top of Green’s head, and Green shakes his head and keeps doing his thing. Green does not swing for the fences with his strikes, and Zellhuber’s volume is low while he still tries to figure out a way in. Green hits any target that is open, including the temple, where he clubs Zellhuber and wobbles him. Zellhuber stumbles back on baby der legs, but he manages to get his footing while Green largely showboats in front of him.
Green wings two hooks that bounce off the nose that is now leaking, and he nails “Golden Boy” with a flush salvo of fiery fists. Zellhuber goes out and is snapped back online, and he hits the ground and is in a bad way. Green does not let him off the hook and proceeds to violently batter him on the sides of the head. As “King” continues his final bombardment, Dean saves the Mexican fighter from his own toughness and waves the fight off.
As if he knew he was going to do that the whole time, Green walks off, cool as a cucumber, and has words with the closest camera. At the age of 39, “King” Green can still put on performances like that, dropping Zellhuber’s UFC record below .500 with a vintage knockout.

The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Daniel Zellhuber R2 4:55 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo hesitantly picks Daniel Zellhuber despite his recent poor performance against Michael Johnson. He reasons that Zellhuber cannot possibly 'do nothing' two fights in a row, especially in Mexico. He also notes that King Green (Bobby Green) sometimes is not serious enough and may not score well with Mexican judges. He acknowledges the risk but believes Zellhuber's Mexican spirit and Green's showboating could lead to a Zellhuber win.

"I'm going to pick Zel Huber here because literally ... sometimes Bobby Green is not serious enough and he's too busy dancing around and showboating."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber but with strong hesitation, calling him the biggest 'ball dropper' in the UFC after losing as a heavy favorite twice. He notes Zellhuber should win against King Green, who struggled against Lance Gibson Jr., but is wary of another poor performance. He predicts a second-round knockout if Zellhuber shows up.

second round knockout
"So, give me Zel Huber minus 500. ... Zel Huber by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody strongly fades Zellhuber at -500, pointing out his recent losses and lack of finishing ability. He believes Green's pressure and durability will cause problems, and that Zellhuber's jab won't be enough. He recommends betting Green or passing.

"I'm out on that. So, uh, yeah, it's either a dog or pass here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor agrees with Zane, but notes that Zellhuber could still lose if he has a slow start and lets Green get comfortable. He points out that Green is crafty and can throw off any fighter with his unorthodox style. However, Connor believes Green's inability to handle fast range strikers and his age make Zellhuber the clear pick.

Green's craftiness; Zellhuber's slow starts; Green's losses to fast strikers
"But I can't pick Bobby green to win any fight anymore."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel picks Daniel Zellhuber, praising his size, reach, sharp hands, and takedown defense. He notes Zellhuber's chin and recovery, and believes he will outrange Prado and avoid ground-and-pound. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter, while Prado is still unproven at this level.

"I'm going Daniel Z Huber here"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is very confident in Zellhuber, calling him the safest bet on the card. He cites Zellhuber's youth (26 vs 39), massive reach advantage (6 inches), home advantage in Mexico City, and Green's lack of finishing ability. Green is a volume striker who is old and smaller, and will likely be outworked. The host plans to parlay Zellhuber with Moreno.

Parlaying him with Brandon Moreno.
"I think he's the safest bet on the card. I think he wins a very high percentage of the time. ... I'd be amazed if Zel Huba loses this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

James expects Zellhuber to rebound from his loss to Michael Johnson, citing Green's less dangerous boxing style. He believes Zellhuber's kicks, durability, and aggression will overwhelm Green, leading to a finish. James predicts Zellhuber wins inside the distance.

"I got Daniel Zel Huba to win this fight and semi redeem himself... Daniel Zel Huba inside the distance is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host picks Daniel Zellhuber but is hesitant due to the -500 price and Zellhuber's recent losses. He notes Zellhuber's height and reach advantages and believes he can land the better strikes. However, he warns that Green is an educated striker and that Zellhuber's striking defense is suspect. He prefers the KO prop over the moneyline.

KO prop
"I'm still going to go with the Mexican here to show out in front of a hometown crowd and give me a Huber by knockout, but minus 500 is just way too wide."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul is leaning towards Green at +375, citing Zellhuber's inconsistency and lack of power. He notes Green's forward pressure and durability, and believes the price is too high on Zellhuber. He hasn't bet yet but is close to clicking Green.

"I know I'm a lot closer to click kick uh clicking green plus 375 than considering Zel Huber a safe minus500 parlay piece."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing Bobby Green's struggles against taller opponents and his habit of fighting with his hands down. He notes that Green had trouble with Lance Gibson Jr. and was destroyed by Jalin Turner. He predicts Zellhuber will TKO Green, as Green is open to shots and Zellhuber is a big favorite.

TKO
"I think Zelhuber's going to TKO him. ... I'm going to go with Daniel Zelhuber getting this one done by TKO over a Green pretty confidently."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber because Bobby Green is clearly past his prime at 39 and has lost his speed and defensive instincts. He notes that Green's style relies on head movement and baiting, which no longer works against younger fighters. Zellhuber has problems with discipline and can lose rounds, but Green's decline is too severe to pick him.

Green's age (39); Green's losses to Pimblett and Turner; Zellhuber's inconsistency; odds too wide
"I have to pick him. Oh yeah. Absolutely. Like I just, I don't think green, like he should not be fighting at this level anymore."
WIN vs Lance Gibson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 65 of 141 46% 74 of 150 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
Lance Gibson 0 30 of 72 41% 35 of 77 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Lance Gibson 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 15 of 37 40% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lance Gibson 0 13 of 25 52% 18 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:04
3 King Green 0 28 of 53 52% 33 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Lance Gibson 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 65 of 141 46% 25 of 77 24 of 40 16 of 24 56 of 129 1 of 1 8 of 11
Lance Gibson 30 of 72 41% 9 of 39 8 of 14 13 of 19 27 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 22 of 51 43% 8 of 26 5 of 14 9 of 11 21 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lance Gibson 12 of 35 34% 4 of 22 2 of 4 6 of 9 11 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 King Green 15 of 37 40% 5 of 22 6 of 8 4 of 7 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lance Gibson 13 of 25 52% 4 of 11 3 of 6 6 of 8 11 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 King Green 28 of 53 52% 12 of 29 13 of 18 3 of 6 20 of 42 0 of 0 8 of 11
Lance Gibson 5 of 12 41% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lance Gibson Jr. vs. Bobby Green
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-210); Gibson Jr. (+170)

Round 1
In an unexpected catchweight delight, “King” Green (32-17-1, 1 NC; 13-12-1, 1 NC UFC) will sneak in his second fight of 2025 right before the buzzer. He takes this match at a 160-pound catchweight likely due to it being put together about a week ago. Matching up in the cage will be Bellator expat Gibson Jr. (9-1, 0-0 UFC)—for the purposes of this play-by-play, his “junior” name suffix will be omitted—who will be competing for the first time in over a year. It should be noted that Gibson now completes the third father-son duo to both compete in the Octagon, joining Randy and Ryan Couture as well as Gilbert and Elijah Smith. Accompanying the athletes in the Octagon will be referee Mark Smith, who watches on as the two elect not to touch gloves.
Green walks the newcomer down flexing his pectorals, hands down by his hips. Gibson lands first with a thudding calf kick, and Green stares at him like a disappointed father. Gibson fires off kicks at his opponent, and Green showboats and wipes off his shoulder to suggest nothing landed. Green gets off a body kick, and Gibson has another high kick blocked in the nick of time. Green stays evasive and starts motioning like he is dribbling a basketball and otherwise goofing around in the midst of a fist fight. This makes Gibson back off, so Green points at the ground and says, “come here!” Gibson obliges, rushing at him for a possible clinch, but Green slides to the side to stay in striking range. The American jabs the body with his foot, and he stomp kicks at the knee to hyperextend Gibson’s lead leg.
Green’s hands remain as low as they can go, and he connects with a body kick and is well out of range before Gibson can get him back with anything but his own kick to the ribs. Green slips to score a right hand, and Gibson cracks him with a left that stands Green up. Green tries to play it off like he is fine, and Gibson picks up on the tell and charges him. Green shakes it off and starts getting in Gibson’s head again, chattering at him and telling him to come at him. Green walks Gibson around the cage, and Gibson pitches a kick at him that Green catches. Green slips in a short left hand and splits the guard with a front kick, and he has Gibson flustered with his approach. Green ducks down to land a right hand, and Gibson buzzes him behind the ear. Green tells to keep throwing with him, and Gibson looks for knees instead and a possible clinch. Green shakes his head, dodges a few punches and salutes. The strange round ends, and scores could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green

Round 2
Green wades out of his corner fearlessly, hands characteristically by his hips, and he uses head movement and footwork to avoid the early offense coming his direction. He gets in close to force Gibson off-balance from a front kick, and Green’s overhand right knocks Gibson to the floor. Gibson leaps back up and hurls a left hand at him, Green dodges and goes “woo,” and he proceeds to mess with Gibson while tossing one-twos at him. Gibson tosses out a low kick, and Green’s front kick response ricochets off the cup. Smith calls time, and Green starts clapping and saying “we gotta get this thing going” as if to hurry Gibson back to combat. The Canadian keeps ignoring him, so Green apologizes to Gibson’s father for the accidental foul. Smith warns Green to avoid kicking the low body, because it is the second kick he has gotten away with there. Gibson marches back and forth adjusting his cup, and Green is hanging out waiting for the recovery time to elapse and talking to anyone without earshot who bothers listening. The roughly two-minute break concludes with a clap of hands from the two fighters. When they resume, Green aims a side kick to the chest, and he wraps a kick around the guard. Gibson rushes him and throws a high kick to open up a level change, and he puts “King” on the floor and advances to side control in a hurry. Gibson clings with his right arm around the back of Green’s head, until Green scrambles to get back to his feet. Gibson holds him from behind in hopes of a mat return.
Gibson knees him in the chin and stomps at his toes, staying up close in the clinch to not give Green any space. Green nearly grabs the fence a few times, and Gibson drops down for a single. Green recovers his footing and pushes off Gibson’s face, and he mean mugs him while walking him down. A jab from Gibson opens a tiny cut on Green’s right cheek, one he ignores as he lumbers forward pitching long punches at him. Gibson sits down on a strong right hand, and Green partially rolls with it and offers back a body kick while Gibson is strafing to the side. They clash low kicks, and Green scores a left hand and points at his foe. Gibson throws back only to be well out of range, while Green can get to him with a long front kick to the sternum. Green clips his man with two crisp punches, and he looks for a hook third but is caught on the way in with a solid inside low kick that stumbles him. Green gathers his thoughts and puts on his poker face to start bombing Gibson with a barrage of punches. Gibson barely misses a spin right before the bell, and Green wipes his brow in a sign of relief that he did not get tagged with it. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gibson

Round 3
Like the previous rounds, Green is not remotely concerned about what comes his direction, even though Gibson landed flush on him a few times towards the end of the round. Gibson keeps his back to the fence, and Green further drives him back with a push kick to the solar plexus. Green aims a low kick and misses on his other, flashier kicks. Gibson reaches out with his own kick, and Green no-sells it. Green lands a couple more front kicks while Gibson is still processing, and he blocks a high kick and points to his arm as if to tell someone watching—like a judge—that it hit him on the arm. Green’s trash talk starts to get louder, and he starts to get a bit more amped up. Gibson stays on his bike, timing a kick from Green to shoot for a takedown. He takes Green to his seat, but Green pushes off and scampers back up within seconds.
Green goes for a right to the ribs, and he scores another right over the top in rapid succession. Gibson’s offense is limited to single strikes, like a huge right hand that Green barely dodges in time. Green strings together a number of punches ending with a solid left, and he starts to walk Gibson down doing the typical Diaz brother strut. Gibson narrowly avoids a one-two, but a second lands on his nose. He has a kick caught, and Green throws him to the wall and then surprises the Canadian by completing a sudden takedown. Green moves himself to north-south position and starts unleashing heavy right hands to the body, and Gibson is warned repeatedly for hooking his toes in the fence links. Smith has to slap at them a few times, all while Green is hammering “Fearless” with concussive hammerfists. The oddball fight ends with Green letting Gibson have it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green (30-27 Green)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)

The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Lance Gibson Jr. via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Green, citing his experience and superior striking. He notes Gibson's lack of activity and short notice, and expects Green to keep the fight standing and outwork Gibson as he fades in later rounds. He sees a live betting opportunity.

"I'll take King Bobby Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Connor also picks Green, agreeing that Gibson is not a UFC-level fighter. He notes that Green, despite looking old and slow, can still beat opponents who don't pose a real threat. Connor mentions that Gibson's only path to victory is wrestling, but that has never been the answer to Green unless you're Islam Makhachev. He also criticizes the fight as not competitive.

Same as Zane.
"I got to pick Green, but the OC should not be having this. This is just a bad fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul also picks Green, emphasizing the step down in competition for Green. He thinks Gibson's grappling threat is neutralized by Green's takedown defense and that Green's striking will be too much. He recommends waiting for a better price.

"Bobby Green's side for me, too."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green because Gibson is a low-level opponent who has feasted on gimmes and doesn't look like a real fighter. He notes that Green, despite looking shot, can still be effective against non-dangerous opponents, as seen in the Jim Miller fight. Zane also points out that Gibson's wrestling game is not enough to trouble Green, and that Green's experience and boxing should carry him. However, he criticizes the fight as not belonging in the UFC.

Green opened at -210, Gibson at +180. Zane doesn't comment on value.
"I got to pick Green, but the OC should not be having this. This is just a bad fight."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Angelo sees Ferreira as more dangerous and durable at this point, with more ways to win. He notes Green is a cleaner striker but Ferreira has power and BJJ. He is surprised Ferreira is almost a 2-to-1 favorite, as the fight feels closer on paper. He picks Ferreira but is not sure what to do with betting, possibly looking at the over 1.5 rounds.

Maybe over 1.5 rounds
"Diego is going to be the pick. He's a little bit older, but he's durable, he's dangerous, and he has more ways to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady picks Diego Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is very worried about King Green's decline, citing the brutal Jalin Turner stoppage, his age (38), and poor recent performances. He notes Green has taken a lot of damage and doesn't look the same. In contrast, Ferreira is older but has less tread on the tires, barely fights, and still performs at a high level. He mentions Ferreira's power, citing knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rębecki, and thinks he can finish Green by any method.

Ferreira by KO, round 1
"Give me FRA here. And I'm going to take FRA to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor picks Diego Ferreira, but with a sadness hedge. He notes that Green is conditioned to leave himself in vulnerable positions and is no longer as capable of surviving. He thinks Ferreira will be more willing to take chances to get in and make the fight ugly, and if Ferreira presses Green, he will get opportunities. However, he admits it's hard to pick and that his choice may be taking the wrong lessons from Green's recent losses.

"I think I'll stick with my sadness hedging instinct. Diego Fajeta. I don't think he's fast enough to make green look as bad as he's looked in his last two fights, but that may also just be me, you know, …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Bobby Green, citing Ferreira's underrated skills and power. He believes Green is prone to getting knocked out, especially in big spots, and that Ferreira can finish him. The Guru notes Ferreira's close split decision with Beneil Dariush and his knockout of Michael Johnson. He predicts Green will have a decent first round but then get caught in the second or third.

Knockout in round two or three; CDF finishes Green
"I'm going with Carlos Diego Fea. ... I think CDF's got Bobby Green and plus Bobby Green, how many more KO losses can we see?"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Bobby Green, but with hesitation. He notes that Green has been getting stopped dramatically lately, but believes this is a fight Green can still win because Ferreira is not an instantaneous threat like Green's recent opponents. He thinks Green's striking technique and Ferreira's choppy path to the ground allow Green to navigate the fight, though he acknowledges it could be a classic Green loss where he outlands but loses a decision.

Green opened as slight underdog at +135, now +126; Ferreira opened -155, now -146. Zane notes the odds should be close to even.
"I think I'm still going to pick Bobby green. I just, I think this is the kind of fight he can still win where he's just not going to be surprised the same way that he was against Hoofy and …"
LOSS vs Maurício Ruffy
KO R1 2:07 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-470), Green (+360)

Round 1
Two 155-pound strikers will light up the T-Mobile Arena to open up the main card. Green (31-16-1, 1 NC; 13-11-1, 1 NC UFC) has seen better days but is still dangerous even at the age of 38, but he will have to mind his P’s and Q’s against the man 10 years his younger in Ruffy (11-1, 2-0 UFC). Before the frenetic action, referee Chris Tognoni makes sure to keep things official and starts the fight. Ruffy offers a glove, but Green would rather just fight. Green backs himself intentionally to the wall, hands low, ready to counter. Ruffy is composed rather than a marauder, and he blocks a push kick when standing in front of his opponent. Ruffy is keeping Green confused with his rangy punches and movement, and this results in a stalemate and stretches of inactivity. When Green kicks low, Ruffy rings his bell with a straight right hand. Green bounces off the wall and gives a right hand back, but it has far less mustard on it than the one that shook him up. Green surges forward with a left high and a right to the ribs, and chants for “Let’s Go Ruffy” start spreading. The Brazilian absorbs all of this energy from the audience and channels it like a Spirit Bomb, only instead of into his hand, he puts it into his right foot. A picture-perfect spin from Ruffy delivers the wheel kick square into the side of Green’s head, and Green is immediately unconscious and slumps face-first the ground like he got shot by a sniper. Absolutely incredible! Forget “Knockout of the Year,” that wheel kick is up there when it comes to “Knockout of the Decade,” much less one of the best in company history. Unreal. The crowd is electric, no one can hear anyone think. Knowing that there is nothing else he needs to do tonight, Ruffy stands stoically above his fallen opponent, while Tognoni sprints in to make sure Green does not take any more damage. Meanwhile, blood pours out of the nose of the flattened Green, who manages to come to and eventually makes it back to his feet. With plenty of energy left in the tank, Ruffy goes off to perform several flips and capoeira moves, sticking the landing each and every time to further wow the fans. The Fighting Nerds have one more highlight on the reel, and the victorious Ruffy dons his team’s famed glasses and gives commentator Joe Rogan a pair to sport as well. Knowing exactly what he wants next, Ruffy calls for a headlining opportunity against Beneil Dariush. The UFC would be hard pressed to pass that up. Wow. What a knockout. Mauricio Ruffy is for real.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Bobby Green R1 2:07 via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Connor picks Ruffy despite acknowledging that stylistically, Green should be able to outbox him. He notes that Green has been getting hurt more often and fighting in a way that leaves him vulnerable to big punchers. Connor believes that even if Green has a good first round, he is likely to get knocked out eventually. He admits the line is too wide and that Ruffy has yet to prove himself against veteran talent.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Connor thinks the line is too wide.
"I think at this point, I have to feel like even a veteran performance out of Bobby Green is going to be him doing really well for a round, a round and a half, whatever, and just getting melted by …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, hoping for a vintage performance. He believes that if Green doesn't get knocked out, he can outwork Ruffy with smarter reads and better cardio. Zane points out that Ruffy struggled against James Llontop, who is slow and clumsy, and that Green is a much more technical boxer. He acknowledges the risk but wants to see Green replicate his win over Nasrat Haqparast.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Zane thinks the line is too wide.
"I'm picking it openly because I want it to happen. Yes. I think it's actually, it's a, you know, it is actually quite possible that Bobby Green can can look. Okay. If he, if he doesn't get knocked out, I …"
LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett
Technical Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:22 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paddy Pimblett 0 15 of 21 71% 15 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
King Green 0 8 of 13 61% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paddy Pimblett 0 15 of 21 71% 15 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
King Green 0 8 of 13 61% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paddy Pimblett 15 of 21 71% 2 of 6 3 of 5 10 of 10 15 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 8 of 13 61% 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paddy Pimblett 15 of 21 71% 2 of 6 3 of 5 10 of 10 15 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 8 of 13 61% 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-120), Pimblett (+100)

Round 1
While the last two fights are championship affairs with a Brit defending their throne, fans might be here for the people’s main event that is the “featured fight of the night.” No matter his new first name, for play-by-play purposes this Strikeforce veteran will be called by his surname, Green (32-15-1, 1 NC; 13-10-1, 1 NC UFC). He will try to take all the wind out of the sails of the raucous Manchester crowd, which is going bananas for Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 UFC). Referee Lukasz Bosacki can scarcely hear himself think, but he knows it is time and starts the fight between the beloved lightweights. Even having said earlier this week it is all business, the two choose not to touch gloves before slugging it out. Green’s hands are low as always, and he pokes at the front leg with a kick. Pimblett winds up with a much heavier kick on the inside, and he lands a second with emphasis. Pimblett sticks out a jab and checks a kick, and he sits down on an especially powerful calf kick. Green marches forward and starts talking trash, and Pimblett catches him with a counter as he backs off. Green brushes his shoulder when Pimblett lands on him, and the Brit lands a low kick as well. Green connects with a pair of stomping kicks to the knee, and he reaches a left hand to the midsection. Green kicks the front leg and is tripped up, and he acknowledges the strike and kicks at him. Green points at his adversary as he walks him down, and he tells Pimblett to hit him. Pimblett elects to kick the calf instead, and Green kicks him in the ribs in response. Green keeps jabbing with his front leg, and he shoots for a takedown and falls straight into a guillotine choke attempt. Green slips out of it, and Pimblett adjusts and locks down a triangle choke. Green rolls to the side but is still dangerously caught in the submission, and Pimblett starts celebrating as he leans back. Green struggles and gets rolled to his back, and he wrenches on the arm while crushing on Green’s carotid artery. Life leaves Green’s eyes as the submission deprives him completely of his consciousness, and Bosacki recognizes this and rescues the snoozing Green from further harm. Pimblett immediately lets go and leaps to the top of the cage as the audience explodes to celebrate the stoppage win for their star. He jumps out of the Octagon to high-five UFC chief Hunter Campbell, and the crowd is absolutely deafening. “The Baddy” passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, putting the dangerous Green to sleep and becoming the first fighter to submit Green since 2009.

The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Bobby Green R1 3:22 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green (Bobby Green) as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Green's volume and defense are excellent, but he only bets half a unit because Green is fighting in enemy territory, could face a sketchy decision, and if taken down by Pimblett, he may not get back up. Angelo acknowledges Pimblett's grappling control but believes Green's striking will be the difference.

half unit bet on King Green
"I still think Bobby's going to win this fight I think he's going to be the better Striker and I think his takedown defense is going to be good enough"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody is confident in King Green, citing his well-rounded skills and veteran savvy. He notes that Paddy Pimblett has looked unimpressive in his UFC fights, often losing rounds before getting finishes, and that his lifestyle and mindset are not conducive to long-term success. Cody believes Green's boxing and takedown defense will be too much, and that Paddy's path to victory is narrow. He predicts Green by decision.

King Green by decision
"Bobby green by decision that seems fairs to me Patty pimin could take a hell of a punch Patty Pimp's not getting submitted I don't think no so Bobby by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel notes Paddy's early explosiveness but worries about his cardio, citing him pulling guard against Tony Ferguson. He thinks Bobby Green's age (37) and hands-down style could lead to him getting caught early. He leans Paddy but wants underdog odds to bet, expecting a close decision or early finish.

"I'm gonna go Patty here to to squeak one out or to potentially get an early finish"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel picks King Green, impressed by his performance against Jim Miller where he overwhelmed a durable opponent. He believes Green's wrestling defense will hold up against Pimblett, and that Green's volume and power will be too much. He notes Pimblett gets hit often and Green can exploit that.

"I like Bobby green here I I had kind of written him off and I'd faded him a couple of times times too just if we're being honest but like that Jim Miller fight was really impressive"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Jeff picks King Green, citing Green's volume and power. He thinks Pimblett will eventually get caught and knocked out, though he's not sure if it happens this week. He believes Green's wrestling defense is adequate and that Pimblett won't get him down.

"give me King got to go with King here Bobby green he's going to put it on uh piml piml gets hit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a horrible matchup for Paddy. He highlights Green's takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights) and his advantage on the feet. Paul expects Green to cruise to a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of a bad split decision in the UK. He also mentions the possibility of betting Green by decision at plus money.

King Green by decision
"I think Bobby green should absolutely Cruise here so I'm 100% with you I love Bobby green um I'm prepared for disappointment but yeah him by decision at plus 160."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission (rear-naked choke), likely in the first or second round. He believes Pimblett can exploit Bobby Green's tendency to give up his back when defending takedowns. The Guru notes that Green was easily controlled on the ground by Islam Makhachev and that Pimblett has a size and strength advantage. He also thinks Pimblett will use kicks at range and wait for grappling opportunities, rather than brawling. The Guru is influenced by a recent interview with Pimblett, which increased his confidence.

submission, rear-naked choke, round 1-2
"I'm going to go with Patty piml I reckon he's got this one the stars are aligning for this one I reckon and also he went on my channel and I think there's a gift of the guru interview moo …"
WIN vs Jim Miller
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–25, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 1 186 of 319 58% 187 of 320 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 57 of 144 39% 58 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 61 of 115 53% 61 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 King Green 1 82 of 121 67% 83 of 122 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 186 of 319 58% 136 of 245 40 of 56 10 of 18 167 of 295 7 of 8 12 of 16
Jim Miller 57 of 144 39% 29 of 103 10 of 18 18 of 23 55 of 141 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 43 of 83 51% 26 of 57 12 of 19 5 of 7 43 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 17 of 46 36% 9 of 35 2 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 King Green 61 of 115 53% 45 of 88 13 of 19 3 of 8 60 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 20 of 53 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 8 of 10 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 King Green 82 of 121 67% 65 of 100 15 of 18 2 of 3 64 of 99 6 of 6 12 of 16
Jim Miller 20 of 45 44% 11 of 31 5 of 8 4 of 6 18 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.

Odds comment: -200 is absurd for this fight
"I am going to lean Bobby green very very slightly minus 200 is absolutely absurd for this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.

"On paper Bobby green has a style to defeat him so the pick is Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I got to take green to just be able to have a competitive interesting fight, maybe eat a couple of shots that he lunges in and Miller is sitting and waiting on a counter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.

"I'm gonna pick Bobby Green to get it done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.

"Jim Miller versus Bobby Green that's just a feel-good fight Jim Miller for UFC 100 UFC 200 and UFC 300 well is going to fight UFC 300 so I'm excited for that fight as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I think for the most part green will roll with them well enough to take the brunt of it off and then really start to put it on Jim Miller through rounds two and three winning this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.

"I like Bobby green too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.

"Jim Miller is going to destroy the lead leg of Bobby green he's going to hack it to Pieces."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am going to pick Bobby Green because I think Jim Miller is so meat and potato potatoes that he is going to have all the success he's ever going to have in the fight in like the first six …"
LOSS vs Jalin Turner
KO (punches) R1 2:49 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jalin Turner 1 33 of 60 55% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
King Green 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jalin Turner 1 33 of 60 55% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
King Green 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jalin Turner 33 of 60 55% 26 of 48 2 of 4 5 of 8 18 of 41 0 of 0 15 of 19
King Green 15 of 26 57% 5 of 14 3 of 4 7 of 8 14 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jalin Turner 33 of 60 55% 26 of 48 2 of 4 5 of 8 18 of 41 0 of 0 15 of 19
King Green 15 of 26 57% 5 of 14 3 of 4 7 of 8 14 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner despite short notice, citing his size advantage and danger everywhere. He thinks Turner's reach and height will be a problem for Green, and that Green's hands-down style could get him caught. He expects an early finish but notes cardio concerns if the fight extends. He calls it a step down in competition for Turner.

"give me Jaylen Turner here on short notice to get an early finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is torn but tentatively picks Turner. He acknowledges Turner's weight cut issues and short notice, but thinks Turner is faster, longer, and the better striker. He worries about Turner's cardio in later rounds but believes if Turner minds his distance, he can win. He considers waiting for weigh-ins and possibly betting Green live after the first round.

considering Bobby Green live after first round
"tentatively I'm going to take Jaylen Turner but I am not disagreeing with any of your points I see them all"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Lucrative James leans towards Bobby Green as a dog, noting that Jalin Turner has never won a decision and has a questionable chin. He believes if Green survives round one, the fight becomes 50-50, with Green having an edge in later rounds. He is not confident but sees value in Green at plus money.

"I don't mind a dog shot on Bobby green"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Green is on a two-fight winning streak and has a volume-heavy style that could overwhelm Turner. Turner has lost two in a row and has had weight issues, plus he took this fight on short notice. Green's durability and pressure should allow him to outwork Turner, especially if the fight goes into deep waters. A decision win is predicted.

decision win predicted
"give me Bobby green here and I think he ends up pulling off a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul already bet Bobby Green at plus money. He cites Green's durability, cardio, and the fact that Turner missed weight last time and is on short notice. He thinks Green can go hard three rounds and that Turner's cardio falls off. He also likes Green round three prop at +2000. He notes Green is historically a slow starter but believes he can take over late.

Bobby Green round three at +2000 considered; already bet Green moneyline at +188
"I already bet Bobby green why well Bobby green was already getting ready for this card he's supposed to take on Dan hooker Dan hooker pulls out Jaylen Turner I mean missed weight last time out at 155 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner, citing his reach advantage, versatility, and ability to chop the legs and body. He believes Bobby Green struggles without a reach advantage and that Turner's dynamic striking will be too much. He expects a decision win for Turner, 30-27.

decision win 30-27
"I'm gonna go Jalin Turner... he's more versatile... he'll chop low, he'll front kick the body, he'll kick the head... I'll say it will be a decision win 30-27."
Jared Gordon - Fight History
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission R1 3:29 · UFC 328 ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-325), Miller (+260)

Round 1
It’s Jim Miller (38-19, 1 NC; 27-18, 1 NC UFC) fight day, the first one of these this year. Coming up on 43 years of age, the New Jersey native still has a ways to go to reach 50 UFC bouts. He can get to 47 tonight once the cage doors close and referee Keith Peterson says go, when he battles Gordon (21-8, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC). This lightweight clash kicks off with no nonsense and no fist bump either.
Miller stalks Gordon down slowly and cautiously, keeping his gloves up to defend a high kick. Miller leaps forward and catches Gordon with a shovel uppercut. Gordon has to take a quick count of his teeth and absorbs a knee from up close. Miller breaks off and takes a body kick. Miller throws a low kick that bangs into Gordon’s cup, and Gordon tries to take him down and abandons it to adjust his groin. Peterson calls time and gives Gordon as much time as he needs to recover. After 80 seconds, Gordon is good to go, and Miller apologizes for the accidental foul. Gordon strikes first with a high kick that harmlessly bangs into the guard, and Miller crowds him behind a pair of hooks. Miller kicks the side again and is driven back with a right hand.
Gordon jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he catches a Miller body kick to shoot for a takedown.
This reckless shot is just traveling down the road to perdition for Gordon, as Miller snatches up a guillotine choke and cinches both legs around the waist, gripping the submission with everything he has. Miller rolls Gordon to the side, squeezing with his self-describes "old man strength." Miller arches his back and has Gordon dead to rights. Gordon surrenders so he does not go out on his shield, and the victorious Miller leaps atop the cage to let loose a roar of victory.
In less than four minutes, the OG Miller has notched his 28th victory in the Octagon, extending his own record. He has now finished 20 opponents as a UFC fighter, one shy of organizational leader Charles Oliveira. In victory, Miller gives it up to his son for beating cancer, declaring that anything he does in combat pales in comparison to what his offspring went through.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon R1 3:29 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, stating his hands are better and his takedown defense should be good enough. He dismisses Gordon's last loss due to being hit by a car. He notes Gordon is a touch younger and faster. However, he thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy and will not bet on it. He acknowledges Jim Miller's home advantage and toughness.

Angelo says he is not spending on the 3-to-1 odds.
"I'm gonna pick Jared Gordon here because I do think his hands are better and I think the takedown defense should be good enough to defend some of these Jim Miller takedowns. But 3 to 1 money is crazy. I'm …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon but is not fully confident. He notes that Jim Miller is tough and experienced, and that the age difference might only be half a second faster. He thinks the fight is competitive and that Jim Miller plus 3.5 is not the worst bet. He mentions that Jim Miller has been finished in all his losses in New Jersey.

over round line lean
"I am picking Jared Gordon here. But the idea that Jim Miller can't hang on the feet seems something that you can dismiss."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, assuming he wasn't hit by a car before this fight. He notes Gordon fights at a high level and should be the minute winner everywhere. Brady expects Gordon to win by decision, though he acknowledges Jim Miller has power and a guillotine. He is rooting for Miller but thinks Gordon gets it done on the scorecards.

"I'm going to take Jared Gordon to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, citing his youth and well-rounded skills. He thinks Gordon's striking and grappling are a step ahead of Miller, who is older and less active. Cody expects Gordon to win by decision.

"I'm picking Jared Gordon. Despite the fact that I want Jim Miller to win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Connor also picks Gordon, focusing on directionality: Gordon has a clear process of pressuring and putting out volume, while Miller never has. Connor notes that Miller has no ability to be the one pressuring and will just accept the fight Gordon wants. He adds that Gordon is a little too fast and put together with his hands for Miller to take him out of his game.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300.
"I think I will because he is going to understand how to kind of tell the story of the fight to dictate in a way that Jim Miller never has been able to."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Daniel picks Gordon, predicting a 29-28 decision where Miller wins the first round but Gordon edges out the last two with top control. He respects Miller's legacy but sees Gordon's youth and grappling as decisive.

"I'm also going Gordon. I'm gonna go 2928 decision. I think Miller wins the first round. Gordon kind of edges out the last two with top control."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Jared Gordon

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Gordon is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (5.64 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to the 41-year-old Miller. Miller's takedown defense (48%) is a liability, and Gordon has solid takedown defense (60%) to keep the fight standing. Gordon's recent KO win over Thiago Moises shows his power, while Miller has been knocked out multiple times. Gordon's pace and pressure should overwhelm Miller, leading to a late stoppage or clear decision.

Gordon by KO/TKO +400
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Jacob picks Jared Gordon but is not betting on him out of respect for Jim Miller, who has been dealing with his son's cancer. He thinks Gordon should win but sees weird paths to victory for Miller. He might play Jim Miller in some capacity on Saturday.

"I got to pick Jared Gordon as a pick because I mean he should just be the better fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host picks Gordon, citing his pressure, pace, and power striking. He believes Gordon's grappling is good enough to keep Miller from grinding, and that Gordon's durability and cardio will allow him to dictate the fight. He expects a decision win, though he notes Miller's hometown crowd and power could pose a threat.

"I like Gordon here. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul picks Gordon, citing his technical striking and Miller's decline. He notes Miller's age and distractions, and thinks Gordon is simply better everywhere. Paul expects Gordon to win.

"Jared Gordon is just a kind of like one step advance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon but calls him a 'risky pick'. He notes Gordon's inconsistency but believes Jim Miller has lost his pop and recent performances have declined. He thinks Gordon should figure out the 55-year-old Miller and get a finish, though he initially says decision then corrects to finish.

by finish
"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon winning this one by decision. Um, by finish. Sorry."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Zane picks Gordon, citing his improved boxing and ability to dictate the fight with pressure and volume. He notes that Jim Miller lacks a clear process and is not a strategic thinker, while Gordon has a clear game plan. However, Zane acknowledges Miller's power and finishing ability, making Gordon vulnerable despite being the favorite.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300. Should probably be closer than that.
"I am going to take Jared Gordon."
LOSS vs Rafa García
KO R3 2:27 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 1 91 of 162 56% 107 of 179 2 of 3 66% 2 1 2:01
Jared Gordon 0 65 of 186 34% 80 of 201 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 22 of 41 53% 23 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Jared Gordon 0 23 of 64 35% 24 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 33 of 61 54% 48 of 77 1 of 2 50% 1 1 1:12
Jared Gordon 0 31 of 86 36% 45 of 100 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
3 Rafa García 1 36 of 60 60% 36 of 60 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:25
Jared Gordon 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 91 of 162 56% 74 of 144 7 of 7 10 of 11 70 of 137 10 of 11 11 of 14
Jared Gordon 65 of 186 34% 55 of 171 8 of 13 2 of 2 65 of 186 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 22 of 41 53% 15 of 33 2 of 2 5 of 6 20 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 23 of 64 35% 16 of 55 5 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 33 of 61 54% 26 of 54 3 of 3 4 of 4 27 of 55 6 of 6 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 31 of 86 36% 29 of 82 2 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 36 of 60 60% 33 of 57 2 of 2 1 of 1 23 of 43 2 of 3 11 of 14
Jared Gordon 11 of 36 30% 10 of 34 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-240); Garcia (+200)

Round 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. Garcia opens with a low kick. Gordon steps in and lands a left. Gordon crashes forward and they exchange. Garcia fires right back. They trade leg kicks but Garcia is more impactful. Gordon probes with a lead hook and a jab. He follows up with a 1-2. A straight right connects for Garcia. A hard leg kick lands for Garcia. A short right by Garcia buckles Gordon’s knees momentarily, but he’s still in the fight. Gordon lands a body kick and then a striaght right. Garcia catches a kick and tags his foe with a right. Gordon stumbles to the floor but pops right back up. Garcia is hunting for that right and finds the range on another one. A stiff jab backs Gordon up. Gordon sticks a jab of his own. A counter right by Gordon makes an impact. He strings some punches together to back Garcia up. As Gordon gains momentum, Garcia changes levels and gets a takedown. Gordon gets to the fence and stands. They stay in the clinch, and Garcia lands a left on the break. Gordon lands a left hook before the end of the period.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 2
Garcia makes Gordon stumble backward with a left at the outset. They’re trading and Gordon gets the better of it. Garcia jumps a guillotine and then rolls into mount. Gordon gets out of it and now must defend Garcia from his back. Gordon moves to the fence and works his way up. Garcia tries to drag Gordon down but it’s unsuccessful. They get back to boxing in the center of the cage. Plent of shots are landing. Gordon has Garcia covering up after landing a couple big rights. Garcia clinches and lands some uppercuts in close. Gordon jabs and then touches his foe with a right. Garcia with a stiff jab, but a counter left hook by Gordon has Garcia backing up. They’re trading in the pocket, but Gordon is landing combinations with more volume. However, Garcia cuts his opponent with an elbow. Gordon with a front kick down the middle. Garcia stumbles after eating a left hook. Garcia with a hard elbow in close quarters late and concludes the round with a takedown as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia opens with a 1-2. He follows with an inside leg kick. Gordon responds with a combination in the pocket. They clinch and Garcia lands a couple of slashing elbows. Gordon pumps his jab. A left hook from Garcia stops Gordon. A heavy 1-2 finds the mark for Garcia, who then rips the body. GArcia is upping the volume as Gordon seems to be slowing. A right by Gordon lands on the side of the head, but Garcia is still attacking. Garcia rips the body with a left. A clean short right to the chin sends Gordon tumbling to the floor. Garcia tees off with punches on his reeling opponent before locking in a modified rear-naked choke. It’s pretty tight, but
he gives up on the submission to pummel Gordon with elbows from top position. He batters a bloodied Gordon with several more elbows before Hatley intervenes.
It’s a violent finish and just Garcia’s second career win via KO or TKO.

The Official Result
Rafa Gacia def. Jared Gordon via TKO (Elbows) R3 2:27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, calling him the better overall fighter and more well-rounded. He notes Gordon is a good wrestler with high volume striking, tough and busy. He says he has seen Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his, and Jared Gordon not get decisions that should have been his. He is surprised to see Gordon as a 3-to-1 favorite. He suggests Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 as a possible bet.

Rafa Garcia plus three and a half might be the best bet here.
"I am going to pick Jared Gordon here. I have seen with my own eyes Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Gordon due to his pace, volume, and recent power. He worries about corrupt judges but expects Gordon to win a decision. He notes Garcia is tough and has only been knocked out by Grant Dawson, so a finish is unlikely.

Decision win; not in love with the price
"Give me Gordon here. Not in love with the price tag to be honest, but I think he wins the fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Connor picks Jared Gordon, emphasizing Gordon's technical boxing and ability to impose his game plan. He notes that García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher shows he can be outworked, and Gordon is a more dangerous fighter than Gruetzemacher. Connor believes Gordon's pressure and sharper striking will overcome García's durability and lack of strategy.

"I think that Gordon can repeat that kind of success because he's a much more dangerous fighter than Chris Gruetzemacher was."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Gordon is a big fan favorite and the host believes Garcia's lack of knockout threat allows Gordon to dictate the pace. He expects Gordon to stay on the gas, put Garcia against the cage, land takedowns, and win on the scorecards.

"I think this is a matchup where the lack of knockout threat from Rafa Garcia will allow Gordon to dictate the pace of this fight. Look for him to stay on the gas, put Garcia up against the cage, maybe …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling him the most underrated lightweight on the roster. He argues Gordon's boxing is superior to Garcia's and that Garcia lacks power. He criticizes Garcia's wins as unimpressive and believes Gordon should be a bigger favorite. He predicts a dominant performance with a TKO in the late second round, possibly including a 10-8 round.

TKO late second round
"I'm going with Jared Gordon, the most underrated lightweight on the roster. ... I'm going to say Jared Gordon gets this one done by a TKO in the first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Zane picks Jared Gordon, citing Gordon's improved boxing form and power, which should allow him to land the bigger shots. He notes that García is durable but lacks power and a strategic approach, often floating through fights. Zane believes Gordon's consistent pressure and sharper striking will win a three-round war, as García's lack of imposition makes him vulnerable.

"I think I have to pick Jared Gordon in that kind of fight. He is likely to land the bigger shots."
WIN vs Thiago Moises
KO R1 3:37 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-110), Moises (-110)

Round 1
Lightweight veterans with technically equal records in the UFC—although one has a no contest—come to blows, with plans of remaining highly regarded in the talent-rich division. Gordon (20-7, 1 NC; 8-6, 1 NC UFC) is the one who also has the grey mark on his pace thanks to a clash of heads with Bobby Green, and has otherwise alternated wins and losses for a few years. The same can be said for Brazil’s Moises (19-8, 8-6 UFC), who is ready to continue the rivalry of his team of American Top Team against regional adversarial team Kill Cliff FC and its rep of Gordon. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep things on the up-and-up, but they are fine with one another and clap hands. The first strike thrown is a Moises body kick, which Gordon uses to easily sling his opponent to his back. Gordon practically walks into top control, and Moises wraps up his arms in an unorthodox armlock attack. Moises lets go of the lockup and lashes out with a short elbow off his back that opens a tiny cut on the top of Gordon’s forehead. Gordon responds with ample ground-and-pound of his own, smearing his blood all over the Brazilian’s head and chest. Moises works his way back up to his feet, ignoring the strikes lobbed at him so he can fight his way back up and away. They proceed to smack one another with low kicks, and Gordon darts in with a pair of punches that bounce off the guard. Leg kicks continue to fly, and they tag one another with single strikes. When Gordon ducks in to throw, Moises counters with a clean right hand over the top. “Flash” does not bat an eye, and instead lets Moises pitch a left hand at him.
This is exactly what he wants, as Gordon times a picture-perfect right hand that smashes into the American Top Team fighter’s chin and puts him down for the count. Moises’ head clatters off the mat when he collapses to the ground like a bird that’s had its wings clipped, and Gordon hammers the nail with a leaping right hand that gives commentator Michael Bisping flashbacks of when he took on Dan Henderson, cleanly separating Moises from his consciousness.
Before Hatley can get to them, Gordon gets one or two off that wake Moises back up, but they are merely academic as Gordon has dropped the hammer. Blood streaming down his face, Gordon stands up and shrugs, as if he knew he was going to do this all along. When Moises comes to, the two hug it out, but it is unclear if Moises knows the license plate number of the bus that just ran him over.

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Thiago Moises R1 3:37 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Angelo picks Thiago Moises after going back and forth. He acknowledges that Jared Gordon has been screwed on scorecards and could be on a win streak, but trusts Moises's training and activity. He notes that Moises is a slick grappler with technical striking and that Gordon is inactive and not on as good a team. Angelo says likely no bets for this fight.

Likely no bets for this fight.
"I'm going to stick with Thiago Moises. I trust the training. I trust the activity."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Gordon's losses are to tough competition in close decisions, and he thinks Gordon's takedown defense and chin hold up. He expects a close competitive decision win for Gordon.

Gordon by decision
"I like Gordon here. ... I think he wins this fight and wins it by a pretty pretty close competitive decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host finds this a tough puzzle but leans with Gordon's pace and pressure. He notes Moises has looked good against certain opponents but doesn't do well against guys who set the pace, and Gordon is exactly that. He expects Gordon to grind out a high pace, possibly get a late finish, but mostly win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.

Gordon by decision (possible late finish)
"I have to lean with Gordon's pace and pressure. Moises has looked very good against certain opponents, but he doesn't do well against guys that can set the pace."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The Guru picks Jared Gordon, citing a rule of thumb that beating Thiago Moises means you're good. He thinks Gordon has been robbed in recent decisions (Bobby Green, Nazareno Malegarie) and is better than his record. He acknowledges grappling concerns from the Grant Dawson loss but believes Gordon's fundamental grappling defense is strong. He predicts Gordon wins by decision.

"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon over Thiago Moises."
CANCEL vs Kauê Fernandes
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Kauê Fernandes as an underdog, arguing that the odds are too wide. He notes that Jared Gordon's only real path to victory is wrestling, and Fernandes has solid takedown defense (62%) and dangerous striking. He worries about Fernandes' takedown defense but thinks Fernandes can win if he uses leg kicks to take away Gordon's wrestling.

"I'm going to lean the dog we're going two fights in a row dog Caillou Fernandez my one and only concern here is the takedown defense of Caillou"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon to win by finish in the second or third round. He heavily criticizes Kauê Fernandes' competition level, noting his opponents have poor records and he has not fought anyone decent. He believes Gordon's well-rounded skills and consistency will overwhelm Fernandes, who likely needs an early finish to win.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go Jared Gordon getting this one done by finish in the second or third round"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 146 of 316 46% 156 of 330 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Gordon 0 141 of 299 47% 170 of 338 0 of 13 0% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 35 of 64 54% 35 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Gordon 0 16 of 56 28% 21 of 63 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:13
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 37 of 80 46% 47 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 55 of 88 62% 79 of 120 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:34
3 Nasrat Haqparast 0 74 of 172 43% 74 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 70 of 155 45% 70 of 155 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 146 of 316 46% 122 of 288 23 of 27 1 of 1 133 of 298 8 of 10 5 of 8
Jared Gordon 141 of 299 47% 125 of 275 12 of 19 4 of 5 128 of 274 13 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 35 of 64 54% 27 of 55 8 of 9 0 of 0 30 of 56 0 of 0 5 of 8
Jared Gordon 16 of 56 28% 11 of 48 2 of 4 3 of 4 14 of 50 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 37 of 80 46% 27 of 68 10 of 12 0 of 0 30 of 71 7 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 55 of 88 62% 49 of 81 6 of 7 0 of 0 44 of 70 11 of 18 0 of 0
3 Nasrat Haqparast 74 of 172 43% 68 of 165 5 of 6 1 of 1 73 of 171 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 70 of 155 45% 65 of 146 4 of 8 1 of 1 70 of 154 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Nasrat Haqparast
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Haqparast (-238), Gordon (+195)

Round 1
Haqparast and Gordon do not touch gloves before going at it. Rich Mitchell is your referee. Haqparast is southpaw, Gordon orthodox, and Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence, picking up a single-leg. He elevates the leg, but instead of finishing the takedown, uses his free hand to punch Haqparast’s face. Gordon lets the leg go, but scoops up another single-leg seconds later, and again uses the chance to land strikes rather than bring the fight to the floor. He loses the leg and Haqparast sticks him with a hard left. Haqparast lands another hard left, and Gordon drops levels for a takedown. This time it looks like a serious attempt, as he runs Haqparast to the fence, but Haqparast keeps his feet under him. They disengage and return to the center of the Octagon. Gordon shoots for another takedown, and again they end up against the fence. Haqparast again defends ably, and after they break, he nails Gordon with a solid right jab. Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence and they trade shots up the middle. Haqparast gets the better of it, smacking Gordon with a three-piece that hurts him. Gordon seems to recover, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast

Round 2
Haqparast scores first, with a hard overhand left that glances off the shoulder but still gets some of Gordon’s head. Gordon marches forward, but his face is showing the wear of trying to get past Haqparast’s righty jab. Gordon drops for a takedown, but Haqparast defends capably. Gordon marches forward, backing Haqparast to the cage, and nails him with two good punches before Haqparast can slide out the side. Gordon walks Haqparast down against the fence and mugs him with punches again. Haqparast is bleeding from under the left eye. There is a brief break in the action as Gordon’s left glove is losing tape. They go back to work, and Gordon feints a level change to open him up for a pair of punches upstairs. Haqparast returns fire, and both men are getting their shots in. Gordon backs Haqparast up to the fence and blasts him with punches to the body. Haqparast tries to get back to space, but Gordon’s pressure is stifling him. With 30 seconds to go, they clinch against the fence. They separate and Haqparast lands a good right to the chin before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
Haqparast and Gordon do not touch gloves before going at it. Rich Mitchell is your referee. Haqparast is southpaw, Gordon orthodox, and Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence, picking up a single-leg. He elevates the leg, but instead of finishing the takedown, uses his free hand to punch Haqparast’s face. Gordon lets the leg go, but scoops up another single-leg seconds later, and again uses the chance to land strikes rather than bring the fight to the floor. He loses the leg and Haqparast sticks him with a hard left. Haqparast lands another hard left, and Gordon drops levels for a takedown. This time it looks like a serious attempt, as he runs Haqparast to the fence, but Haqparast keeps his feet under him. They disengage and return to the center of the Octagon. Gordon shoots for another takedown, and again they end up against the fence. Haqparast again defends ably, and after they break, he nails Gordon with a solid right jab. Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence and they trade shots up the middle. Haqparast gets the better of it, smacking Gordon with a three-piece that hurts him. Gordon seems to recover, and the horn sounds. Haqparast scores first, with a hard overhand left that glances off the shoulder but still gets some of Gordon’s head. Gordon marches forward, but his face is showing the wear of trying to get past Haqparast’s righty jab. Gordon drops for a takedown, but Haqparast defends capably. Gordon marches forward, backing Haqparast to the cage, and nails him with two good punches before Haqparast can slide out the side. Gordon walks Haqparast down against the fence and mugs him with punches again. Haqparast is bleeding from under the left eye. There is a brief break in the action as Gordon’s left glove is losing tape. They go back to work, and Gordon feints a level change to open him up for a pair of punches upstairs. Haqparast returns fire, and both men are getting their shots in. Gordon backs Haqparast up to the fence and blasts him with punches to the body. Haqparast tries to get back to space, but Gordon’s pressure is stifling him. With 30 seconds to go, they clinch against the fence. They separate and Haqparast lands a good right to the chin before the round ends. Neither man gives any quarter in the opening moments, standing toe-to-toe and swinging away. Haqparast’s fast hands show out, as he tags Gordon with a clean southpaw one-two. Gordon changes levels and drags Haqparast to the floor, but Haqparast refuses to concede the takedown, popping right back to his feet. Gordon marches forward, landing his jab on Haqparast and backing him up. Gordon is relentless, walking down the younger man, and mixing in level changes to keep him guessing. Haqparast lands a clean jab and Gordon returns fire with a hook to the head. Haqparast hits Gordon with a short punch to the body. Gordon comes back with a left hand upstairs. Under a minute to go and it still feels like anyone’s fight. Both men are battered and exhausted. They clinch and Haqparast scores with a short elbow inside. They separate and exchange a flurry of punches. The final horn sounds on what is, so far, easily the best fight of the night.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast (29-28 Haqparast)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)

The Official Result
Nasrat Haqparast def. Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Angelo picks Nasrat, highlighting his high volume striking (6 significant strikes per minute) and solid takedown defense (78%). He notes Nasrat has power, durability, and can push a pace. He thinks Jared Gordon is sneaky good but Nasrat is the better overall fighter. He is confident in Nasrat winning straightforwardly.

"nazat lands six significant strikes per minute and that seems like a giant number... nazat though I think is just the better overall Fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Big Brady picks Nasrat Haqparast to win by second-round knockout, citing his volume and sneaky power. He questions Jared Gordon's chin, noting he has been knocked out multiple times. Brady believes Haqparast's striking will overwhelm Gordon, and if Gordon's durability holds, it could be close, but he expects a finish before that.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going to take hack brast here I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Haqparast, citing his size, boxing, and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Gordon's wrestling is less effective at 155 and that Haqparast should outpoint him. However, he warns that the line is steep and the fight could be close.

"I gota go with Nasrat Haqparast"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Daniel Vreeland picks Nasrat Haqparast confidently, highlighting his improved output and power in his left hand. He notes Gordon's durability and top control but believes Haqparast's speed, power, and athleticism will be the difference. He sees Haqparast as hitting his peak and winning a decision or knockout.

"I'm gonna pick nazat hakaras to win this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Jacob picks Nasrat, calling him better everywhere with superb striking and defensive wrestling. He believes Nasrat can weather Gordon's storm and that the -240 moneyline is good value. He respects Gordon's journey but thinks Nasrat is the better fighter.

"I believe that nazat hack barass should be just about better everywhere... I believe that minus 240 money line is one of the better values on this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

JP picks Nasrat, noting his 3-fight win streak and better competition, though he worries about Nasrat's decision-making on the feet. He expects a close fight but favors Nasrat's clinch game and pressure. Brevan is more confident, predicting a KO/TKO via Nasrat's powerful overhand left. He criticizes Gordon's recent performances and believes Nasrat will out-strike him and get a finish. Both see Nasrat winning, with Brevan specifically calling for a stoppage.

Nasrat by KO/TKO
"I'm gonna go nazrat KO TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul picks Haqparast but is hesitant due to the price. He notes Haqparast's takedown defense is okay and his striking is solid, but Gordon could make it competitive with wrestling. Paul expects a close decision.

"I don't love laying minus 240 with hack press I do see a world in which this is really close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The MMA Guru picks Nasrat Haqparast over Jared Gordon, believing Haqparast is the better boxer and will stuff takedowns. He notes that Gordon is not a dominant grappler and that Haqparast's recent first-round TKO shows his power. He expects Haqparast to box Gordon up as the fight goes on, possibly losing the first round but winning the next two.

"I'm going to go Nazar ha prast here over Jared Gordon um I do I think and this is really annoying to me because it the problem with Jared Gordon is and nazra haar is their existence changes my opinion …"
WIN vs Mark Madsen
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 1 36 of 66 54% 54 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Mark Madsen 0 35 of 57 61% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 1 36 of 66 54% 54 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Mark Madsen 0 35 of 57 61% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 36 of 66 54% 27 of 57 5 of 5 4 of 4 22 of 51 10 of 11 4 of 4
Mark Madsen 35 of 57 61% 23 of 44 12 of 13 0 of 0 16 of 37 19 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 36 of 66 54% 27 of 57 5 of 5 4 of 4 22 of 51 10 of 11 4 of 4
Mark Madsen 35 of 57 61% 23 of 44 12 of 13 0 of 0 16 of 37 19 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo leans Gordon, reasoning that Gordon's striking is better and he can outwrestle Madsen by implementing his own game plan. He notes Madsen is one-dimensional and older, and Gordon trains with good wrestlers. He is not fully confident due to Gordon's age.

"I am going to lean Jared Gordon here and I think he could sneak something out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon by decision. He thinks Gordon has a significant striking advantage, with fast hands and high volume, and better cardio. He notes Madsen is 39 and may need to resort to wrestling, but Gordon has solid takedown defense and get-up game. Brady worries about Gordon's chin but doesn't think Madsen can knock him out.

Gordon by decision
"I'm gonna take Jared Gordon here to win this fight and this probably goes to decision so Jared Gordon by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon but is hesitant, suggesting a live bet might be better. He thinks Madsen will win the first round with wrestling but gas out, allowing Gordon to take over. He notes Gordon's durability and pace, but doesn't like the pre-fight line.

"I'm gonna take Gordon but I think you'll get the better number live"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Gordon's pace, pressure, and ability to dictate the fight will be the difference. Madsen may have early grappling success, but Gordon's BJJ background will allow him to get back to his feet and overwhelm Madsen with better striking. Expects a close fight early but Gordon to put together a better body of work in the last two rounds and win by decision.

"I believe that Gordon's Pace pressure and ability to dictate the pace will be the Difference Maker in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Paul leans Madsen as a dog, having taken him at +167. He thinks Madsen's wrestling pedigree will allow him to get takedowns and control early rounds. He acknowledges Madsen's cardio issues but believes he can win the first two rounds. He notes Gordon isn't a potent finisher.

"I took plus 167 took a shot on Madson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling Mark Madsen awful. He thinks Gordon is underrated and showed improved striking against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He believes Gordon is more versatile and better on the feet, and that Madsen has no offensive grappling or striking threat.

"I think Mark madson's awful I think he's awful I really do... I think Jared Gordon's pretty underrated"
LOSS vs King Green
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R1 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 23 of 69 33% 23 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jared Gordon 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 23 of 69 33% 23 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jared Gordon 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 23 of 69 33% 15 of 56 6 of 9 2 of 4 17 of 62 0 of 1 6 of 6
Jared Gordon 17 of 53 32% 9 of 34 5 of 11 3 of 8 17 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 23 of 69 33% 15 of 56 6 of 9 2 of 4 17 of 62 0 of 1 6 of 6
Jared Gordon 17 of 53 32% 9 of 34 5 of 11 3 of 8 17 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks Bobby Green confidently, citing his superior striking and 72% takedown defense. He notes that Green has been tested by top lightweights and even in his recent loss to Drew Dober, he won the first round. He thinks Jared Gordon is undersized for lightweight and lacks one-punch knockout power, making Green a safe parlay piece.

"Bobby all day he's gonna be the much better Striker... Bobby is the pick and I think he's a safe parlay piece."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks Bobby Green to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Green is a much better striker than Gordon, who has only fought grapplers in his career. Green has incredible takedown defense and good wrestling, so Gordon's path to victory is limited. Brady expects Green to put a ton of volume on Gordon, hurt him, and knock him out early. He also mentions that Gordon has been knocked out five times before and that the judges could screw up a decision, so he prefers the finish.

first round knockout
"I'm actually going to take Bobby green to win this fight by knockout I think he's going to put it on Jared Gordon very early and I think Bobby green knocks him out within the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green despite the high price, praising his elite boxing, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Green's ability to outwork opponents and his durability, having only been knocked out by top power punchers. Cody believes Green's volume and pressure will be too much for Jared Gordon, who has a questionable chin and has been knocked out by lesser power punchers. He even suggests a Green by KO prop, as Gordon tends to get hit a lot.

Bobby Green by KO
"I will be picking Bobby green but at mine is 255. you know if Jared Gordon lands a shot and Bobby green starts going like uh shaking his head no no no that didn't hurt me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, emphasizing that Green is a superior athlete and technician. He notes that Gordon's best win was against Danny Chavez, but Green is a much tougher puzzle. He points out that Green has been schooling tough opponents and that Gordon's lack of speed and power will be exposed. He also mentions that Gordon's mental game might be off after the Pimblett fight.

"I have to pick King green here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
King Green

Bobby Green is the better striker with a significant speed advantage. His takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, where he can pick apart Jared Gordon with combinations. Gordon may have success pushing Green against the cage, but Green's footwork and movement should allow him to escape and land shots at distance. Green is motivated after a knockout loss to Drew Dober and could finish Gordon, who has shown durability issues. Green by knockout in round 2 or 3.

Green by KO in round 2 or 3
"Bobby green normally just a decision machine has the potential to land a knockout in this fight considering the striking advantage and speed advantage... I'm going to say Bobby Green Round Two or round three by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul also picks Bobby Green, arguing he should be an even bigger favorite. He highlights Green's elite boxing, footwork, and ability to avoid takedowns, noting that no one has submitted him in the UFC. Paul believes Green's volume and pressure will overwhelm Gordon, who has a weak chin and has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He thinks Green could even get a knockout.

"I think you should be a bigger favorite as far as I'm concerned I think he wins this fight fairly handily Bobby green is an elite level fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green despite his recent KO loss. He argues Green's takedown defense is good and he is levels above Paddy Pimblett on the feet, whom Gordon struggled with. He thinks Green will stuff takedowns and land at will, dominating on the feet. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26.

decision
"I'm gonna go with Bobby green over Jared Gordon... I think if you even make it look close against pimlet you ain't really that good"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green confidently, noting that Green is a slick, creative striker with excellent defensive wrestling. He points out that Gordon's best chance is to pressure and grind, but Green has shown he can handle that and counter effectively. He also mentions that Gordon lacks knockout power and that Green's recent performances show he's assertive and accurate.

"I have to pick King green here."
LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paddy Pimblett 0 63 of 155 40% 97 of 194 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Jared Gordon 0 60 of 103 58% 100 of 143 3 of 6 50% 0 0 6:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paddy Pimblett 0 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 32 of 53 60% 40 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
2 Paddy Pimblett 0 28 of 70 40% 47 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 24 of 46 52% 39 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:07
3 Paddy Pimblett 0 6 of 15 40% 21 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
Jared Gordon 0 4 of 4 100% 21 of 21 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paddy Pimblett 63 of 155 40% 33 of 122 13 of 16 17 of 17 54 of 139 8 of 15 1 of 1
Jared Gordon 60 of 103 58% 32 of 62 14 of 27 14 of 14 53 of 94 5 of 6 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paddy Pimblett 29 of 70 41% 16 of 55 2 of 4 11 of 11 28 of 69 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jared Gordon 32 of 53 60% 17 of 28 7 of 17 8 of 8 30 of 50 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Paddy Pimblett 28 of 70 40% 13 of 54 11 of 12 4 of 4 24 of 64 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 24 of 46 52% 13 of 32 5 of 8 6 of 6 20 of 41 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Paddy Pimblett 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 4 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 4 of 4 100% 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Paddy Pimblett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-250), Gordon (+210)

Round 1
The co-main event for this pay-per-view card is an unranked lightweight affair between boisterous Liverpudlian Pimblett (19-3, 3-0 UFC) and his relatively soft-spoken counterpart Gordon (19-5, 7-4 UFC). The UFC wants a star out of Pimblett, and they are building him up in a measured manner instead of throwing him to the top-ranked wolves. Many view Gordon as the next step up in competition. The third man in the Octagon for this pairing is referee Herb Dean, and they do decide to touch gloves even after some back-and-forth between the two. Pimblett crowds the American and kicks the side early, and he fires off a head kick and strings several punches together as Gordon shells up. Gordon, seemingly the smaller man by a wide margin, leaps forward to belt Pimblett in the face with a left hand. Pimblett wears it well and gets rocked with a left hand, and he is retreating as Gordon advances. Pimblett, with his head high and a tall stance, absorbs another left hand and a low kick to mix things up. The two trade leg kicks, with Gordon putting his hips into them as Pimblett resets and fires one off to respond. Gordon sticks “The Baddy” with two more left hooks, and Pimblett darts away and recovers to score two punches. In a flash, “Flash” rocks Pimblett with an overhand right, and he walks through a calf kick to get off another left. Pimblett lines several punches up one after the other, and Gordon blocks some while others split his guard. Pimblett ducks low to avoid a looping punch buzzing his way, and he swats away the arms before Gordon can slug him again. Pimblett jabs and flips out two high kicks in rapid succession, and Gordon keeps his guard high to defend the rest that follows. Gordon absorbs part of a jumping high kick, and he responds with a body kick and a left hook. Pimblett has two punches and a kick bounce off the guard, but his left hand gets through. Gordon does not slow, connecting with a big left and a calf kick. Pimblett pushes Gordon back with a head kick that is blocked, only for Gordon to respond with power. Gordon gets stung with a counter and ducks down for a single, but Pimblett slithers his leg away in time. Gordon marches his man down and lands a left hand, and he counters a takedown by push Pimblett flat on his back. Pimblett threatens with a high guard that does not turn into anything, while Gordon lands a few punches before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 2
Gordon claims the center of the cage and advances to throw hands, while Pimblett keeps his range and tosses out high kicks. Pimblett lobs a right hook that skims off the guard, and Gordon chips at the calf a few times. Pimblett gets a head kick through, and he is answered by two swarming punches from his foe. Gordon absorbs a body kick and then takes a front kick so he can close in and club Pimblett in the face with a left, but Pimblett sticks and moves. The Brit sneaks in an uppercut as Gordon gives chase, and Gordon checks a kick and tries to initiate a brawl. Pimblett gets the worst of the exchange and tries to escape out the back door, and he gets his chin checked with a powerful left hook. Gordon grabs hold of a single, and when he puts Pimblett down, Pimblett defends with an arm-triangle choke that is a sort of a side-naked choke, but Gordon is calm and does not fall into danger. Pimblett walks up the cage wall, and short offense on the inside opens a cut on the hairline of “Flash.” Gordon attempts another takedown, and Pimblett stuffs it and punches Gordon in the back of the head repeatedly. Gordon stays pressed tightly to his man before suddenly breaking free and blasting Pimblett in the face with two punches. Gordon gets cracked with a right, but he fires off a left to back Pimblett off. A few Pimblett punches collide with the guard, and they trade low kicks until Gordon pushes forward in pursuit of a takedown. Pimblett defends against the wall and elbows the side of the head until Gordon bails on it, and Gordon grinds his man until Pimblett shoves him away. Pimblett unloads with two punches and sneaks up a head kick, but Gordon is right there to brawl away with him. Pimblett pushes off with his fingers out, and one jams into Gordon’s eye to cause a pause with 15 seconds left in the round. Pimblett receives a hard warning for his fingers stretching out or poking out, and they resume with a slugfest. Pimblett catches Gordon at the end of a right hand, and he loads up on a few punches and a front kick until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
The lightweights touch gloves to initiate the final frame, and Gordon advances while Pimblett defends a potential takedown. Gordon clasps his hands and dumps the Brit on his face, and Pimblett defends with a kimura. Pimblett climbs back up and is lifted with a knee, and he puts his hands on the mat to take knees on the jaw out of the equation. Gordon aggressively pursues a double, and Pimblett considers a front choke but cannot find the neck when Gordon switches things up for a single. The grind is firmly embraced by “Flash,” who settles for heavy shoulder pressure and takedown tries, while Pimblett is stifled to little more than an elbow or a knee. Gordon suddenly changes levels for a double, and this fails as Pimblett elbows him in the back of the head. Dean calls for the fighters to work, and Pimblett explodes to break away. Gordon scores a left hook, and he powers forward with a second before jamming Pimblett up against the wire. Gordon squeezes and clings to the Brit, and he trips Pimblett out to his knees but cannot ground him. Gordon pursues a double, and he ends up settling to trip Pimblett out and dump him to the floor. Pimblett slides out the back door and looks to take dominant position, but Gordon bursts back upright as Pimblett holds onto him. Pimblett lands a short knee on the inside and gets wrenched to his knees, and Pimblett jumps on to take his back as the fight ends. We have reached the judges’ scorecards for the first time of the night, and scores could definitely go either way depending on how the second and third rounds were evaluated. Either way, the meteoric rise of Pimblett has definitely hit a speed bump in the form of “Flash” Gordon, win or lose.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)

The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Angelo picks Pimblett, believing he is the better striker and grappler. He notes that Pimblett outgrappled Jordan Leavitt, who was considered a better grappler. However, he warns that Gordon has legit wrestling and could take Pimblett down and hold him there, as Leavitt took him down three times. He suggests the best bet is Pimblett inside the distance (decision no action) if the odds are reasonable.

Best bet: Pimblett inside the distance (decision no action) if odds are favorable.
"Patty's gonna be the better Striker better Grappler and he just needs to make sure he isn't just held on his back the whole time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett, citing his power and dangerous grappling, while noting Jared Gordon's poor durability and lack of finishing ability. He expects Pimblett to hurt Gordon on the feet or lock in a submission, likely in the second round. He does not agree with the -250 price but sees Pimblett as the more likely finisher.

Pimblett wins by second round submission (club and sub)
"I'm gonna take pimlic to win I'll say a second round like a club and sub and I think he gives Jared Gordon his sixth submission loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Cody picks Paddy despite acknowledging he has been fading him in previous fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling, back-taking, and rear-naked choke are key, and that Paddy has a massive reach advantage. He notes Paddy's durability and wild style but believes Jared Gordon is not the guy to expose him. He expects Paddy to use grappling to grind out a decision or late submission.

"I still got a side with with Patty and I just think that is the gonna be the counter um grappling of Jared Gordon that I'll probably let them down"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Connor picks Pimblett, reasoning that Gordon is not a powerful striker and will fall into clinch scrambles where Pimblett is dangerous. He notes Gordon repeatedly gives up his back on the mat, and Pimblett is a skilled backtake artist. Connor is hesitant but believes Gordon's flaws will lead to a submission loss.

Odds: Pimblett opened +125, dropped to -170, now -259; Gordon opened -145, now +208.
"I'll pick Patty because the problem for Jared is he's not going to finish Patty on the feet and he is going to fall into him and something stupid is going to happen."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett to win inside the distance, though he expects Jared Gordon to be competitive early. He notes Gordon's superior volume and top control, but believes Pimblett is a 'big moment fighter' who can turn the tide with a knockdown or submission. Levi thinks Gordon may win the first round or two, but Pimblett will eventually find a finish. He does not bet this fight, preferring to watch.

Picks Pimblett to win inside the distance. No bet placed.
"I got Patty to win this fight inside the distance after overcoming some very sketchy moments and possibly being down on cards"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Lock picks Jared Gordon as his dog of the night, believing his style will give Paddy fits. He thinks Gordon will keep his foot on the gas, push the pace, box, and grind out a decision, as long as he stays conscious. He notes that Paddy has faced adversity in every UFC fight but Gordon is the best fighter he's faced. Lock likes the betting line at +217 and sees a possible pump and dump on PredictionStrike at 80 cents, though he acknowledges Gordon has a ceiling.

dog of the night play
"I got shared Gordon as my dog of the Night play uh this weekend I I do think he has a style to give Patty the baddies some fits"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul leans towards Jared Gordon as a dog, having faded Paddy in all his UFC fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling defense is suspect and he has been hurt in fights. He notes Gordon's skills and value at plus money, but is hesitant because Paddy has won close fights before. He is pot-committed to fading Paddy but acknowledges the risk.

"I'm such a sucker for it at some point I'm probably gonna end up with money on Jared Gordon I'm not gonna lie"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Jared Gordon by rear-naked choke. He expects Gordon to be winning early with cage pressure, but Pimblett's speed and power will catch Gordon, leading to a scramble where Pimblett takes the back and chokes him out. He notes the odds are too wide and considers it a close fight, but believes Pimblett's finishing ability prevails.

Pimblett should be around -180, not -250; fight is close
"I'm gonna go with Paddy pimlet here and I'm gonna go with Paddy pimlic by real naked joke"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Zane reluctantly picks Pimblett, agreeing with Connor that Gordon will give up his back in scrambles. He notes Gordon is a better wrestler but Pimblett will let himself be taken down to create grappling exchanges. Zane is not confident, saying if Gordon loses it's his own fault.

Odds: Pimblett opened +125, now -259; Gordon opened -145, now +208.
"All right, fine. I'll take Patty Pimblett. I don't like it."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks Bobby Green confidently, citing his superior striking and 72% takedown defense. He notes that Green has been tested by top lightweights and even in his recent loss to Drew Dober, he won the first round. He thinks Jared Gordon is undersized for lightweight and lacks one-punch knockout power, making Green a safe parlay piece.

"Bobby all day he's gonna be the much better Striker... Bobby is the pick and I think he's a safe parlay piece."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks Bobby Green to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Green is a much better striker than Gordon, who has only fought grapplers in his career. Green has incredible takedown defense and good wrestling, so Gordon's path to victory is limited. Brady expects Green to put a ton of volume on Gordon, hurt him, and knock him out early. He also mentions that Gordon has been knocked out five times before and that the judges could screw up a decision, so he prefers the finish.

first round knockout
"I'm actually going to take Bobby green to win this fight by knockout I think he's going to put it on Jared Gordon very early and I think Bobby green knocks him out within the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green despite the high price, praising his elite boxing, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Green's ability to outwork opponents and his durability, having only been knocked out by top power punchers. Cody believes Green's volume and pressure will be too much for Jared Gordon, who has a questionable chin and has been knocked out by lesser power punchers. He even suggests a Green by KO prop, as Gordon tends to get hit a lot.

Bobby Green by KO
"I will be picking Bobby green but at mine is 255. you know if Jared Gordon lands a shot and Bobby green starts going like uh shaking his head no no no that didn't hurt me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, emphasizing that Green is a superior athlete and technician. He notes that Gordon's best win was against Danny Chavez, but Green is a much tougher puzzle. He points out that Green has been schooling tough opponents and that Gordon's lack of speed and power will be exposed. He also mentions that Gordon's mental game might be off after the Pimblett fight.

"I have to pick King green here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
King Green

Bobby Green is the better striker with a significant speed advantage. His takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, where he can pick apart Jared Gordon with combinations. Gordon may have success pushing Green against the cage, but Green's footwork and movement should allow him to escape and land shots at distance. Green is motivated after a knockout loss to Drew Dober and could finish Gordon, who has shown durability issues. Green by knockout in round 2 or 3.

Green by KO in round 2 or 3
"Bobby green normally just a decision machine has the potential to land a knockout in this fight considering the striking advantage and speed advantage... I'm going to say Bobby Green Round Two or round three by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul also picks Bobby Green, arguing he should be an even bigger favorite. He highlights Green's elite boxing, footwork, and ability to avoid takedowns, noting that no one has submitted him in the UFC. Paul believes Green's volume and pressure will overwhelm Gordon, who has a weak chin and has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He thinks Green could even get a knockout.

"I think you should be a bigger favorite as far as I'm concerned I think he wins this fight fairly handily Bobby green is an elite level fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green despite his recent KO loss. He argues Green's takedown defense is good and he is levels above Paddy Pimblett on the feet, whom Gordon struggled with. He thinks Green will stuff takedowns and land at will, dominating on the feet. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26.

decision
"I'm gonna go with Bobby green over Jared Gordon... I think if you even make it look close against pimlet you ain't really that good"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green confidently, noting that Green is a slick, creative striker with excellent defensive wrestling. He points out that Gordon's best chance is to pressure and grind, but Green has shown he can handle that and counter effectively. He also mentions that Gordon lacks knockout power and that Green's recent performances show he's assertive and accurate.

"I have to pick King green here."