Career Averages - Mohammed Usman
Career Averages - Junior Tafa
Mohammed Usman
Junior Tafa
Mohammed Usman - Fight History
Angelo picks Valter Walker, noting his wrestling and heel hook expertise. He believes Valter should win by takedown and submission, but expresses concern about Valter's striking and potential to quit if takedowns are defended. He has low confidence in Mohammed Usman's skill set, calling him not a great fighter. He advises caution due to Valter's shaky performance in his last fight.
Cody picks Usman but is not confident, noting Walker's submission threat. He believes Usman's wrestling and durability can neutralize Walker, but expects a close fight. He suggests passing or taking the sub prop on Walker.
Lucrative James picks Valter Walker, highlighting his signature heel hook and the fact that Mohammed Usman is the type of fighter to get caught in one. He notes Walker's three consecutive heel hook wins in the UFC and believes Usman's grappling defense is not elite. He also mentions Walker's improved physique and cardio, and expects a round one submission. He likes the under 2.5 rounds (-135) and Walker by submission (+175).
Manpreet picks Walker to win by submission but is not confident in the moneyline at -315. He notes Walker's heel hook threat but also his vulnerability if the submission fails. He suggests Usman at plus 265 is worth consideration if he can avoid early danger. He prefers the submission prop at +175.
Paul picks Usman as a dog, citing Walker's one-dimensional game of fishing for heel hooks. He notes Usman's wrestling defense and jab, and believes he can stuff takedowns and win a decision. He suggests the over and Usman by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Valter Walker over Mohammed Usman, citing Walker's recent leg lock submissions and Usman's tentative, scared fighting style. He believes Walker will march forward and secure a heel hook submission in the first round. He notes Usman is more of an athlete than a fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamdy Abdelwahab | 0 | 55 of 123 | 44% | 55 of 124 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 86 of 179 | 48% | 86 of 179 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 9 of 46 | 19% | 9 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 0 | 18 of 52 | 34% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 48 of 79 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamdy Abdelwahab | 55 of 123 | 44% | 34 of 97 | 10 of 13 | 11 of 13 | 55 of 123 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 86 of 179 | 48% | 44 of 123 | 41 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 86 of 179 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 9 of 46 | 19% | 8 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 21 of 39 | 53% | 13 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 29 of 54 | 53% | 16 of 34 | 12 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 18 of 52 | 34% | 12 of 44 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 48 of 79 | 60% | 20 of 47 | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Hamdy Abdelwahab but with significant reservations. He notes that Hamdy is an Olympic wrestler but has looked sloppy, gasses easily, and hasn't shown good cardio. He mentions that Mohammed Usman is big and athletic but may not be fully committed, citing an interview where his brother said he's on the fence about continuing. Angelo ultimately fades both for fantasy but picks Hamdy due to the potential for takedowns if Usman is not prepared.
Big Brady picks Hamdy Abdelwahab but is not excited about the fight. He expects Abdelwahab to get a takedown in the first round, gas out, and then the fight becomes a low-volume affair going to decision. He thinks Abdelwahab clearly lost his last fight but will get the nod from judges. He predicts Abdelwahab by decision and says he will look to fade him in the future.
The host is not a big believer in Abdelwahab but thinks Usman is not good either. He expects Abdelwahab's aggressiveness and wrestling threat to keep Usman moving backward, allowing Abdelwahab to grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman as an underdog, calling Hamdy Abdelwahab 'absolute garbage' and a 'fat sack of garbage'. He believes the odds are skewed because Abdelwahab is undefeated, but sees the fight as 50/50. He expects Usman's reach advantage and better conditioning to allow him to outpoint Abdelwahab in the later rounds, predicting a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 63 of 185 | 34% | 63 of 185 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 76 of 138 | 55% | 98 of 164 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 17 of 60 | 28% | 17 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 24 of 75 | 32% | 24 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 44 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 63 of 185 | 34% | 44 of 151 | 19 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 61 of 181 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 76 of 138 | 55% | 58 of 117 | 13 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 72 of 134 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 22 of 50 | 44% | 18 of 44 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 22 of 41 | 53% | 13 of 32 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 17 of 60 | 28% | 9 of 46 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 25 of 45 | 55% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 24 of 75 | 32% | 17 of 61 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 29 of 52 | 55% | 25 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Mohammed Usman because he is the larger, more physically imposing fighter with a brick for a head and decent power. He notes that neither fighter is very good or entertaining, and that Usman's takedown defense should hold up against Petersen's wrestling. However, he explicitly says he cannot bet on low-level heavyweight fights, so this is a lean with no stake.
Cody picks Petersen, noting his youth (29) and wrestling pedigree. He thinks if Petersen can get takedowns, he can control Usman. He admits Usman has better striking and cardio but believes Petersen's southpaw stance and sophomore improvement could be factors. He calls it a dogger pass situation and sides with the underdog.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mohammed Usman, noting his improvements and ability to last three rounds. He believes Usman can defend takedowns and tire out Petersen, who gasses when his takedown game fails. Vreeland expects Usman to take over late in the fight.
Petersen is a slight dog at +110. He has a wrestling-heavy approach but needs to improve his striking to avoid being picked apart. Usman is not as crisp a striker as Jamal Pogues, which could allow Petersen to have more success with his wrestling. Petersen's pressure and pace should wear down Usman around the 6-minute mark, leading to a decision win. However, I need to see improvements in Petersen's striking before I'm confident enough to invest heavily.
Paul picks Usman, citing his wrestling background, takedown defense (never taken down in UFC), and better striking. He thinks Petersen's wrestling won't be effective and that Usman will edge a decision or get a late finish. He calls the line very playable.
The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman over Thomas Petersen, calling Petersen 'garbage' and a 'fat dum dum'. He notes Usman has knockout power and is more technical, with better conditioning and athleticism. He dismisses Petersen's size and recent loss to Jamal Poges, concluding Usman should win easily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 57 of 167 | 34% | 57 of 168 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 72 of 150 | 48% | 72 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mick Parkin | 0 | 15 of 48 | 31% | 15 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mick Parkin | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mick Parkin | 0 | 24 of 68 | 35% | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 36 of 69 | 52% | 36 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Parkin | 57 of 167 | 34% | 26 of 114 | 30 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 57 of 167 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 72 of 150 | 48% | 37 of 109 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 37 | 71 of 149 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mick Parkin | 15 of 48 | 31% | 11 of 39 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 16 of 40 | 40% | 6 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mick Parkin | 18 of 51 | 35% | 5 of 32 | 12 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 20 of 41 | 48% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mick Parkin | 24 of 68 | 35% | 10 of 43 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 36 of 69 | 52% | 22 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 12 | 35 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mick Parkin because he is the more technical fighter with sharper striking and slightly better takedowns. He expects a boring, slow, sloppy heavyweight decision, possibly with a stoppage from Parkin via takedown and ground control. He will stay away from betting unless the over 1.5 rounds line is available, which he would hammer.
Big Brady picks Mick Parkin, believing the fight will primarily be standing. He notes Parkin's striking looked good in his debut but was inconsistent against Kyle Machado. He thinks Parkin will land more strikes at range, while Usman has low volume and relies on power. Brady doubts Usman can knock out Parkin and expects a decision win for Parkin.
Cody picks Parkin, citing his size, mobility, and superior boxing. He criticizes Usman's low output and lack of power. Cody believes Parkin will outwork Usman and win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Mohammed Usman, admiring his ability to find a way to win even in ugly fights. He notes Usman has power and wrestling, and can take Parkin down. He thinks Parkin is the cleaner striker but Usman's physicality and grit could carry him.
Parkin has a great gas tank for a heavyweight, good output, and excellent scrambling ability. He will pressure Usman, who has a low-volume kickboxing style and tends to slow down late. Parkin can win by decision or even snatch a late submission, as Usman has been submitted before. Usman's only path is a flash KO, but Parkin should control the fight.
Paul picks Parkin, noting his training with Tom Aspinall and his ability to go the distance. He acknowledges the line movement toward Usman but still favors Parkin's overall game.
The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman over Mick Parkin, citing Parkin's poor last performance where he arguably lost and looked bad. He believes Usman's athleticism and wrestling will wear on Parkin as the fight goes on, with Usman landing takedowns in rounds two and three. He notes Parkin's eye swelling in his last fight and thinks Usman's power and pressure will be too much. He predicts a decision win for Usman.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 85 of 191 | 44% | 118 of 234 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 87 of 183 | 47% | 100 of 198 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohammed Usman | 0 | 32 of 72 | 44% | 34 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 41 of 89 | 46% | 41 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Mohammed Usman | 0 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 37 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 34 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Mohammed Usman | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 47 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 25 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Usman | 85 of 191 | 44% | 58 of 156 | 27 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 83 of 186 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Jake Collier | 87 of 183 | 47% | 53 of 145 | 22 of 25 | 12 of 13 | 80 of 171 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohammed Usman | 32 of 72 | 44% | 26 of 60 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Collier | 41 of 89 | 46% | 25 of 71 | 11 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 79 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mohammed Usman | 36 of 85 | 42% | 22 of 71 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Collier | 34 of 68 | 50% | 17 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 33 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mohammed Usman | 17 of 34 | 50% | 10 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Jake Collier | 12 of 26 | 46% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Usman due to size and speed advantage, but notes Collier has a great chin, busy jab, and more experience. He thinks Collier could win a close decision. He is not confident and only considers betting the over 1.5 rounds if available.
Big Brady picks Jake Collier with low confidence, calling the fight a mess. He notes Collier is the better striker by far, has a wrestling background, and appears to be in better shape after dropping weight. He worries about Collier's grappling at heavyweight but believes he can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. He is not betting this fight.
Cody picks Jake Collier as a live underdog, citing his volume and speed advantage if his cardio holds. He notes Usman's low output and stiffness. He is encouraged by Collier looking trimmer on social media and thinks if Collier can last past the first round, he wins.
Daniel picks Usman confidently, comparing Collier to Jared Vandera as a fan-favorite who loses. He notes Collier is 2-5 at heavyweight and was finished by Chris Barnett. He thinks Usman's physicality and takedowns will be too much, and Collier has never faced a takedown attempt at heavyweight. He expects Usman to control and possibly finish.
Lucrative James picks Collier, believing he should be favored. He notes Collier's high volume and finishing upside, while Usman lacks finishing ability. He thinks Collier can win by decision or finish, and sees value at plus 150. He acknowledges Collier's cardio issues but expects him to do enough early.
The host picks Collier as a live underdog, expecting the best version of him given his improved shape and urgency. He notes Collier has advantages in combination striking and volume, and that Usman is a low-volume kickboxer who may struggle if he can't grapple. He predicts a decision win for Collier and also likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.
Paul sides with Collier at plus money, noting Usman's low volume (7 significant strikes in his last fight). He thinks Collier's experience and volume will be too much if he doesn't gas. He mentions Collier's takedown defense against Buday.
The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman, criticizing Jake Collier as a 'morbidly obese middleweight' who no longer cares. He praises Usman's athleticism, knockout power, and commitment, noting he is on a two-fight win streak and won The Ultimate Fighter. He acknowledges Collier's decent hands but believes Usman's wrestling and power will be too much. He mentions Collier could catch him as an underdog but ultimately favors Usman's style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 79 of 133 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 12:03 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohammed Usman | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 11 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mohammed Usman | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 38 of 59 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mohammed Usman | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 25 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:28 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Usman | 7 of 29 | 24% | 6 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
| Junior Tafa | 22 of 61 | 36% | 17 of 55 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 45 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohammed Usman | 1 of 12 | 8% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Junior Tafa | 8 of 24 | 33% | 6 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mohammed Usman | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
| Junior Tafa | 6 of 18 | 33% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mohammed Usman | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Junior Tafa | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tafa (-115), Usman (-105)
Round 1
Up now, heavyweights take center stage, when two brothers of more established UFC competitors come to blows. Tachi Palace Fights vet Usman (8-2, 1-0 UFC) aims to go 2-0 in the promotion, while “The Juggernaut” Tafa (4-0, 0-0 UFC) would like nothing more than to keep his 100% knockout rate intact. It’s high alert for referee Mark Smith, as the likelihood that this reaches the scorecards is low. Fists are tapped, and Usman moves to lead the dance immediately. Tafa is comfortable putting his back against the wall, but they are extremely respectful of the other’s power as they do not trade a strike in the first 35 seconds. Tafa finally reaches Usman with a left hand, and he tosses out a front kick to draw an exaggerated, energetic charging double-leg takedown attempt. Tafa gets pushed back to the wire, and he looks to fight out of this position by framing his elbow on Usman’s face. “The Motor” stalls as he pushes the Kiwi out of Australia up against the fencing, holding him there without bothering to swing a single strike. Smith asks Usman to work as they pummel for underhooks, and Usman gets a knee off to the body while searching for a better posture. Tafa briefly turns him out, and they spin one another around. Tafa releases a high knee that glances off the side of the head, and Usman drops to a knee and tries for another takedown. Tafa grabs the top of the cage to stay afloat, and Usman squeezes him tightly like he is trying to make play-do shapes out of his back. Tafa gets just enough space to unload a combination of punches, and Usman gets staggered and wobbles back. Tafa swings everything he has into his punches, and Usman is on ice skates as he backs off. Tafa misses with some massive hooks, lands with others, and reaches Usman with a head kick. The round ends before Tafa can completely hammer the nail.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tafa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tafa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tafa
Round 2
The heavyweights have reached Round 2, and Usman is light on his feet as he tries to get them completely beneath him. Tafa slowly walks him down instead of swinging for the bleachers, and he aims an uppercut to just miss the mark of a shooting Usman. Tafa drops his hands and starts throwing bungalows, and Usman takes several on the chin and wobbles back, stung again from the blows. Usman tries to connect with a short right hook, and settles for a single-leg entry. The Kiwi considers elbowing Usman on the side of the head like Travis Brown to Josh Barnett, but he stops throwing them to keep his balance. Usman gains the upper hand, and he elevates Tafa and dumps him to the floor. Usman smothers his man in half guard when he jumps on top, much more interested than position than a dropping a few feeble hammerfists. Tafa lays flat on his back, seemingly disappointed and totally unable to buck off or move to get “The Motor” off of him. Usman slowly scoots his way to a better offensive posture while still in half guard, but his strikes have practically nothing on them as he seems to be heavily fatigued. Usman sits up and drives a few punches to the body to better effect, as he remains chest-to-chest to keep Tafa down. The round ends with Usman throwing a few labored punches.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 3
The heavyweights come out lumbering from their corners, and Tafa is the aggressor to start with a few winging punches. Usman jams him up with an attempted tackle, and he smushes Tafa into the chain-link fence. Using the remaining energy he has, Usman lifts Tafa up in the air and deposits him gingerly to the floor, where he steps over to half guard. Tafa leans up against the fence to try to wall-walk or at least be in a less disadvantageous position, but Usman is fully equipped to ruin the rest of his day with his wrestling. Usman holds on from above with his chest pinning Tafa to the mat, and Tafa starts talking to him to try to inspire some different approach. “The Motor” ignores him, hanging on from above in grueling, exhausting fashion, and he decides against taking mount so that he can keep Tafa pinned. With the last vestiges of his gas, Tafa bursts to his knees with 45 seconds to spare, and he walks up the wall. Usman doggedly pursues a single to put him back down, and time is Tafa’s greatest enemy right now as Usman controls him. Tafa elbows his man on the side of the head, and he pushes Usman back to belt him with a few punches. “The Juggernaut” charges at the spent Usman, unleashing everything he has left, but it is not enough before time expires to conclude the heavyweight slog.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman (29-28 Usman)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Usman (29-28 Usman)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Usman (29-28 Usman)
The Official Result
Mohammad Usman def. Junior Tafa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Junior Tafa but is hesitant, calling it a sketchy pick. He notes Tafa's power, speed, and technical kickboxing, but questions his takedown defense. He bet $25 on Tafa at -195 as an experiment based on line movement (Tafa opened as underdog, now favorite). He acknowledges the risk and advises not to blindly tail.
Big Brady picks Mohammad Usman to win by a greasy decision, but he wants nothing to do with this fight from a betting perspective. He notes that Usman's path to victory is to wrestle and take the fight to the mat, as Tafa is a much better striker but has questionable takedown defense and cardio. However, Brady is not confident in Usman, calling him 'very bad' and noting he got lucky in his last fight. He also mentions the wild line movement but stayed away from betting it.
Cody picks Tafa, calling him a world-class kickboxer while Usman is not good. He criticizes Usman's wrestling, cardio, and tendency to rely on one-punch power. Cody notes Usman's wins on The Ultimate Fighter were close and he struggled against older competition. He believes Tafa will win by knockout if the fight stays standing, which is likely.
Connor picks Mohammed Usman, reasoning that Usman is much bigger and stronger than Tafa, and that neither fighter is likely to get knocked out. He expects a wild brawl for five minutes followed by a slog, and thinks Usman's size will allow him to hold Tafa enough to win. Connor notes that Usman hits like a truck and has never been knocked out.
Mohammad Usman has a massive experience advantage over Junior Tafa, who has less than a year of MMA experience. Usman is a mediocre fighter but has fought higher-level competition. Tafa is a raw kickboxer with poor takedown defense, as seen in his regional fights. Usman should be able to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision or TKO. The odds have moved significantly in Tafa's favor, but Usman's MMA experience should prevail.
Paul also picks Tafa, agreeing with Cody. He notes that if Usman doesn't shoot for takedowns, Tafa will likely clip him. Paul acknowledges the risk that Usman could use wrestling, but doubts he will. He calls it a low-level heavyweight fight where anything can happen.
The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, going against Mohammad Usman. He sees no skill in Usman's game and notes Tafa's combat sports experience in boxing, kickboxing, and Muay Thai. He thinks Tafa's activity and momentum are advantages, and that Usman is unimpressive with losses to Brandon Sales and a split decision over Eduardo Perez. He predicts a first-round KO.
Zane also picks Mohammed Usman, but with low confidence, calling it a coin flip. He notes that Usman is stiff and disconnected but hits hard, while Tafa is a wild combination puncher who gasses. Zane thinks the fight will be a mess and that Usman's size advantage might be the deciding factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Usman | 1 | 12 of 40 | 30% | 13 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 33 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohammed Usman | 0 | 9 of 35 | 25% | 10 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 31 of 46 | 67% | 32 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mohammed Usman | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Usman | 12 of 40 | 30% | 11 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Zac Pauga | 32 of 50 | 64% | 14 of 29 | 9 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 31 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohammed Usman | 9 of 35 | 25% | 8 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Zac Pauga | 31 of 46 | 67% | 14 of 26 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 30 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mohammed Usman | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Zac Pauga | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a slight lean towards Mohammed Usman due to his size, power, and physicality. He notes that Pauga is the better overall fighter but his size disadvantage at heavyweight could be decisive. He references Pauga being dropped by Terence Jacquez and believes a similar shot from Usman could finish him. However, he acknowledges Usman has had issues with wrestlers in the past.
Big Brady picks Zac Pauga, noting his speed and cardio advantages over Mohammed Usman. He criticizes Usman's low volume and poor cardio, and praises Pauga's takedown defense and improved striking. He predicts Pauga will stuff takedowns and win a decision, though he notes Pauga is undersized for heavyweight. He also mentions Pauga's training at Elevation Fight Team with Curtis Blaydes.
Cody also picks Pauga, highlighting his undefeated record and clean performances on TUF. He notes that Pauga is a natural 205-pounder who moved up for the show and will likely move back down. Cody contrasts Pauga's refined skills with Usman's poor losses and questionable wins, including a controversial decision. He believes Pauga's speed and output will overwhelm Usman.
Paul picks Pauga, noting that Pauga is a former football player with good mobility and athleticism. He mentions that Pauga looked impressive on The Ultimate Fighter, throwing spinning attacks and showing improvement. Paul is wary of laying -250 on a debuting heavyweight but sees Pauga as the clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Zac Pauga by third-round ground-and-pound TKO. He praises Pauga's technique and undefeated record, and criticizes Mohammed Usman's lack of commitment and poor performances. He believes Pauga's Samoan chin will allow him to take shots and break Usman down.
Junior Tafa - Fight History
The host picks Baraniewski by armbar, noting that Baraniewski is a very good grappler with judo and powerful takedowns. He expects Baraniewski to exchange a few strikes, then toss Tafa and armbar him as soon as they hit the mat. He mentions that Tafa's takedown defense and submission defense are not there.
AJ picks Baraniewski to finish Tafa, likely by submission in round one, citing Baraniewski's judo background and Tafa's suspect grappling. He notes Baraniewski can also win on the feet but expects the smart strategy to be takedown and submission. AJ is confident Baraniewski will showcase his grappling and get a first-round finish.
Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski but expresses concern about his lack of experience in later rounds, as he has never been past the first round. He notes that Baraniewski has power and can wrestle if needed, while Tafa's takedown defense is terrible. However, he worries that if Baraniewski doesn't finish early, he might gas.
Big Brady picks Iwo Baraniewski to win by first round submission. He notes that Junior Tafa has the worst grappling in the UFC and that Baraniewski should take him down and submit him easily. However, he worries about Baraniewski's fight IQ and whether he will choose to strike instead of grappling.
Iwo Baraniewski has five straight knockouts and is a brutal finisher. Junior Tafa has a weak chin and was knocked out by Billy Elekana. Baraniewski will knock him out in the first round, possibly with a submission but likely a KO.
Cody picks Baraniewski but is hesitant due to the high price and Baraniewski's reckless style. He notes Tafa is dangerous in the first round and Baraniewski could get clipped. He prefers not to get heavily invested at -375 but still expects Baraniewski to win.
Iwo Baraniewski should win because he has a grappling advantage over Junior Tafa, who is susceptible to low kicks and has questionable cardio. However, Baraniewski can be reckless and hittable, so he must grapple to avoid getting clipped. The host expects a finish, possibly by submission, but notes Baraniewski's inconsistency.
Baraniewski is fundamentally better and has power, but Tafa has a puncher's chance. Baraniewski should win by first-round knockout if he doesn't get reckless. Tafa is bigger but lacks technical striking and grappling.
Lucrative James picks Iwo Baraniewski, expecting him to use his grappling to neutralize Junior Tafa's striking. He notes Baraniewski's takedown instincts and ground game, predicting a KO via ground and pound in round 1. He acknowledges Tafa's power but believes Baraniewski's wrestling will be the difference.
Baraniewski is a powerful wrestler with finishing ability; Tafa has poor takedown defense and gets demoralized on the ground. Baraniewski should take him down easily and finish by submission or TKO. The round one submission prop at +1100 is a great value.
Paul picks Baraniewski but is more confident in the under 1.5 rounds prop. He notes both fighters are aggressive and likely to end early. He has been parlaying the under 1.5 rounds with other bets, though he is pumping the brakes at -340.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Kevin Christian | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Tafa | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Kevin Christian | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa | 21 of 31 | 67% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 10 |
| Kevin Christian | 13 of 21 | 61% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Tafa | 21 of 31 | 67% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 10 |
| Kevin Christian | 13 of 21 | 61% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Towering light heavies Christian (9-3; 0-1 UFC) and Tafa (6-5; 2-5 UFC) go to work at the direction of referee Matt Wynne. Tafa is tall and long, but Christian is ridiculously huge, and they exchange hard shots immediately. Christian hacks away at Tafa’s front leg with nasty kicks from both sides, and Tafa is reacting right away. Tafa does not like the kicks one bit, but he’s countering with huge punches up top, several of which land. Christian is hurt and backing away, but manages to recover. The Brazilian goes right back to work on Tafa’s lead leg, which is visibly chewed up. Tafa is favoring the bad leg, but he plants on it anyway and floors Christian with a pair of flush hooks. Christian stumbles away.
Tafa gives chase, puts him down with a final right hand, then drops at least 10 jackhammer right elbows from top position before Wynne moves in to save the unconscious Brazilian.
Definitive finish to a blissfully defense-free scrap by “The Juggernaut.”
The Official Result
Junior Tafa def. Kevin Christian R1 2:42 via KO (Punches and Elbows)
Angelo leans Kevin Christian despite Junior Tafa being the better striker, because Tafa's takedown defense and ground game are terrible. He believes if Christian can get the fight to the ground, he will win. He expects a finish either way and mentions the under on rounds.
Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by first-round knockout. He calls Kevin Christian the worst fighter in UFC history, citing his lack of volume, chin, and wrestling. Brady notes Tafa has two UFC wins by knockout and believes Christian's only path is a triangle choke, which is unlikely. He trusts Tafa's power to finish early.
Cody picks Tafa but is hesitant, noting his poor cardio and submission vulnerability. He believes Tafa will likely win by knockout in the first round, but advises live betting Christian if it goes longer.
Connor picks Christian as a fun upset pick, noting that Tafa is a chaos fighter who either wins in the first round or loses. He points out that Tafa has no grappling and could get taken down or submitted by Christian's length. However, he admits Christian is bad and uncoordinated, making this a low-confidence pick.
Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Junior Tafa to win by knockout, but is wary of Tafa's poor ground game and history of losing as a favorite. He notes Kevin Christian's poor distance management but sees Tafa's power as the deciding factor.
Tafa is the favorite but his advantages are baked into the odds. He has bad cardio and ground game, while Christian is slow and hittable but could exploit Tafa's weaknesses if he grapples. The fight is likely to end inside the distance but odds are terrible. No bet recommended.
Lucrative James picks Junior Tafa to win via knockout. He considers Kevin Christian one of the worst fighters on the roster and believes Tafa is a much better striker. He expects Tafa's takedown defense to keep the fight standing where he has a clear advantage.
James is very confident in Junior Tafa because he believes Kevin Christian is a low-level UFC fighter with poor striking defense and cardio. He expects Tafa's superior boxing and kickboxing to lead to an early knockout, likely in the first round.
Despite normally fading Tafa, the host picks him here because Christian's grappling is not UFC level. He expects Tafa's initial grappling defense to keep the fight standing, and then Tafa will land a big knockout. The host notes Tafa's power and that Christian is hittable and lacks durability.
Paul picks Christian as an underdog, citing Tafa's history of gassing and getting submitted. He believes Christian's submission skills and durability could lead to an upset, especially if he survives the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, despite his 6-5 record, believing he will catch Kevin Christian coming in. He notes Tafa looked improved in his last fight and dropped Billy Elekana. He also comments on Christian's background, suggesting it affects his pick.
Zane picks Tafa because he believes Kevin Christian is a bad athlete—flat-footed, slow, uncoordinated, and ungainly despite his height. He thinks Tafa, despite his own flaws, has enough power and aggression to finish Christian early. He notes that Christian is in Stefan Struve territory but without the toughness, and that Tafa should be able to beat him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Elekana | 1 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 38 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 27 of 54 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Elekana | 1 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Billy Elekana | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Elekana | 38 of 70 | 54% | 21 of 49 | 14 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Junior Tafa | 24 of 51 | 47% | 20 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Elekana | 26 of 46 | 56% | 13 of 32 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Junior Tafa | 9 of 24 | 37% | 6 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Billy Elekana | 12 of 24 | 50% | 8 of 17 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Junior Tafa | 15 of 27 | 55% | 14 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elekana (-250), Tafa (+205)
Round 1
The prelims wrap up with a struggling former heavyweight at 205 pounds in hopes of a new lease on life. Tafa (6-4, 2-4 UFC) dropped his first effort at light heavyweight, but he will get another chance as he takes on California native Elekana (9-2, 2-1 UFC). Referee Herb Dean dons his proverbial hard hat in anticipation of a whole lot of big swings in a small span of time, breathing a slight sigh of relief when the bruisers clap their hands together first.
Elekana slowly, cautiously wades in to go after the ex-heavyweight, not overcommitting to strikes but slowly backing the Kiwi to the fence. Elekana blocks a high kick and walks face-first into a bomb of a right hand that sets him down like a sack of bricks. Somehow, Elekana snaps back online after what appears to be a flash knockdown, and he grabs hold of Tafa and forces a bit of grappling before working his way up. Tafa rushes him, and he pulls back before going for broke. Elekana thanks him with a glove touch, and Tafa further gets his attention with a subsequent left hand. Tafa shuts down a takedown effort that might have gotten him down a year or two ago, and he intercepts a swinging Elekana with a sharp left hand down the middle. Elekana clips Tafa in the midst of an exchange, and Tafa backs off clutching his eye.
Elekana does not throw, instead shooting in for a single, and Tafa winces and pushes off. They flash out jabs at the same time, and Tafa goes with one to the sternum as Elekana frowns and shakes his head. Tafa gets in a pair of punches, and they high-five again. Tafa jabs, ducks and backs Elekana off with a body shot. Tafa winds up with a fierce right hand that shakes Elekana up, and Elekana manages to tank it and circle away as if nothing happened. Tafa takes advantage of a momentary lapse in defense with a right hand upstairs and a left to the body, and then looses a big right high. Tafa digs a kick to the ribs and punches the same target, and he attempts his own jabs to multiple targets. Elekana pitches out a front kick and gets knocked back courtesy of a right hand, and when he gathers himself, Tafa rips a huge left to the liver. Tafa unloads on Elekana before the round ends, and Elekana tags him back as they reach Round 2.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tafa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tafa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tafa
Round 2
The 205ers nod to one another and share a glove touch to get going in the second stanza. Elekana probes out his front kick with toes extended to the body, and he slips a right hand over the top. Elekana looks to hand-fight and take away Tafa’s left hand, and he pokes out a few jabs and threatens a takedown. Tafa scoots out of the way and backs Elekana to the wall with a pair of punches, but he does not corner Elekana as Elekana walks away and moves to the center of the cage again. The crowd boos this, as if they are seeing that these fighters are pulling their punches. Elekana does not pull anything when tagging Tafa with a pair of punches, and his right hand on the temple catches Tafa unaware. Tafa stumbles but does not go down, gathering himself and knocking Elekana back before allowing him once more to return to the center of the cage. Elekana closes in and grabs hold of Tafa, dragging him to the mat from behind so that he can step over into full mount.
Tafa turns to his side while Elekana is in a dominant position, and Tafa rolls around all while Elekana wraps up the body triangle.
Elekana briefly flirts with a rear-naked choke, and switches arms to change to the other side and locks it up in a hurry. Tafa knows that the submission is tight as a drum and that there is no way out, and he quickly taps out to give “Son of Susie” the submission victory.
Just like the Micallef fight from before, it only took one takedown to completely change the nature of this fight and turn the tide to one man’s favor.
The Official Result
Billy Elekana def. Justin Tafa R2 3:18 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Billy Elekana, stating he is the better overall MMA fighter with solid takedown defense and patient striking. He acknowledges Junior Tafa's kickboxing skills but notes his takedown defense is a huge hole. He warns that the odds are steep at -225 and that Tafa could have success if Elekana tries to strike, but Elekana can adjust.
Big Brady is confident in Billy Elekana, citing Junior Tafa's poor grappling (white belt) and Elekana's submission win over Kevin Christian. He believes Elekana will take Tafa down and submit him in the first round, as Tafa made Tuco Tokos look like Khabib.
Cody is confident in Elekana, citing Tafa's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Elekana has good grappling and submission skills, and expects him to take Tafa down and submit him in the second round. He acknowledges Elekana is not a world-beater but sees this as a favorable matchup.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Elekana. He emphasizes that Tafa's striking is not technical enough and he has no grappling, so Elekana should win if he doesn't freeze. Connor also comments on the odds, suggesting Elekana is overvalued.
Daniel Vreeland picks Elekana despite initially doubting him, citing Tafa's abysmal ground game. He believes Elekana can take Tafa down and finish quickly, though he warns that if Elekana bangs on the feet, he risks getting knocked out. Vreeland is surprised to be picking Elekana but sees a clear path to victory.
James picks Elekana to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He believes Elekana will take Tafa down and finish what Sean Sherif started, likely with a rear-naked choke in round one.
Elekana is a solid BJJ specialist with good striking and timing. Tafa has poor takedown defense and is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in his submission losses. Elekana should evade Tafa's power shots, get takedowns, and find a submission within a round and a half. The host likes Elekana by submission at +210, noting that Tafa is a favorite fade.
Paul agrees, noting that Tafa has consistently gassed out and been finished in his UFC fights. He believes Elekana's grappling will be the difference and predicts a submission win in the second round.
The Guru picks Billy Elekana, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Elekana's technical level, grappling, and toughness, noting his performance against Bogdan Guskov. He expects Elekana to submit Junior Tafa in the first round, as Tafa is less technical and relies on brawling.
Zane picks Billy Elekana because he sees Elekana as a reasonable light heavyweight prospect with decent athleticism and durability, despite his loss to Bogdan Guskov. He believes Elekana's grappling advantage will be decisive, as Junior Tafa cannot wrestle or grapple and relies on one big blitz. Zane notes that if Elekana freezes, Tafa could win, but overall Elekana should win by taking the fight to the ground.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Aslan. He emphasizes that Tafa's record is terrible and that he has never won a fight past two minutes. Connor notes that Aslan has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. He thinks Aslan's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.
Zane picks Aslan, reasoning that Aslan is a nuts-and-bolts slugger who will pressure Tafa and throw combinations. He notes that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. Zane believes Aslan's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge, as Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:27 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 31 of 57 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 7:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Tafa | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 14 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 | |
| 2 | Junior Tafa | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa | 24 of 38 | 63% | 21 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 | 10 of 10 | 8 of 14 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Tafa | 16 of 23 | 69% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 10 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 6 of 9 | 66% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Junior Tafa | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 4 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tafa (-175); Tokkos (+140)
Round 1
Down about 35 pounds with some serious physical transformation on his behalf, Tafa (6-3, 2-3 UFC) is aiming for a new lease on life at light heavyweight. He will be able to trade with a willing dance partner in Tokkos (10-5, 0-2 UFC), where a knockout may not be guaranteed but it is greatly expected. Before the bludgeoning, referee Eric McMahon clocks the fighters in, and they bump fists.
Tokkos says hello with a chopping low kick, and Tafa checks a second one and attacks behind his jab. Tafa checks another kick, and he finds himself facing a single-leg entry from the Brit. Tafa elbows the side of the head a few times, and Tokkos still manages to wrangle him to the floor. Tokkos keeps hold of Tafa’s left leg to trap him on the mat, and he holds in there. Fans are not amused by the lack of activity of the two sluggers, and Tafa takes advantage of their momentum and stands up. The Kiwi hacks down the back of the head a few times, grabs the fence and is still dragged to his seat courtesy of the Tokkos single. Tafa wall-walks upright and is mat returned in a hurry. Tafa stands, and he wraps up a power guillotine choke only to release it to slash down with elbows.
Tokkos throws Tafa back down to the floor with emphasis, and Tafa repositions himself to sit on his seat. Tokkos smothers the former heavyweight with chest pressure, and McMahon tells them they need to do more than stall out. Tafa gets to a knee, and Tokkos takes his back and loops one hook around the legs. Tokkos dives after a short choke, and Tafa gives up his back and starts fighting hands. Tokkos resets himself to set up a rear-naked choke, and he releases it to shift to full mount, arm-triangle briefly in play. Tokkos postures up to drive down punches, getting warned for back of the head shots as well. He continues to impose his weight on Tafa, and is warned for grabbing inside the glove to keep Tafa on the mat. Tafa flips him over with seconds to go and lets Tokkos have it, cutting Tokkos on the top of the head as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tokkos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tokkos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tokkos
Round 2
Tafa touches gloves with his foe and unleashes a hellacious overhand right. Tokkos shrugs at him, but he is beaned by another big right. Tafa clubs him with an uppercut, and Tokkos falls on his face. Tokkos rolls around on the mat to try to get Tafa in a grappling exchange, and Tafa stands up and makes him get up. Tokkos explodes forward, nailing Tafa with a shock right hand that he uses to set up a takedown after it. Tafa gets dragged to the mat, and Tokkos clings to him and holds on with a front choke. Along the way, he is warned for grabbing Tafa’s gloves. Tokkos steps over to half guard and easily climbs to three-quarter mount, only to pull himself back one step so he keeps Tafa flat on his back. Tokkos sits up and drives down punches and hammerfists, and Tafa turns to his side to survive. Tokkos quits punching for the most part to get a hook in around the side.
Tafa shifts to his back again, and Tokkos considers an arm-triangle choke and is admonished for eye gouging when he puts his fingers on Tafa’s face. Tokkos sits up again to land some bombs, and he uses the punches to set up a rear-naked choke. Tafa on his side is able to break up the submission, but Tokkos is still on him making him carry every additional pound.
This time, Tokkos advances to full mount, and he latches on with an arm-triangle choke and steps over to the side. Crushing down with all of his energy, Tokkos forces Tafa to submit to the choke.
McMahon breaks up the sub, and Tokkos strides away and drops to his knees to take in his first UFC victory.
The Official Result
George Tokkos def. Junior Tafa R2 4:25 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Tuco Tokkos but admits he can't bet on him because Tokkos is winless in the UFC. He thinks Tokkos can get the fight to the ground and control Junior Tafa, who has poor takedown defense and looked out of shape in his last fight. However, he notes Tokkos is not reliable enough to bet on as a dog.
Big Brady hates this fight from a betting standpoint. He warns that Junior Tafa's ground game is terrible and if Tuco Tokkos gets him down, it could be bad. However, he cannot rely on Tokkos to wrestle or do anything. He picks Tafa by default, expecting a first-round knockout, but says he would never lay -160 on Tafa.
Connor picks Tokkos hesitantly, noting that Junior Tafa is a one-dimensional slugger who is very upright and easy to navigate. He acknowledges that Tokkos is hurtable and awkward, but believes his wrestling and toughness might be enough to outwork Tafa. Connor admits Tafa could knock Tokkos out, but he leans toward Tokkos due to Tafa's lack of versatility.
The host is not a fan of either fighter but believes Tokkos has the BJJ black belt to take Tafa to the ground and find a submission quickly. He criticizes Tafa's overall skill level, noting he has decent pop but is not a good fighter. Tokkos has underperformed in the UFC but has the grappling chops to win.
The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, noting he is in shape for his light heavyweight debut and has had some success in the UFC, unlike Tuco Tokkos who has lost three straight and shown no success. He expects Tafa to be 'lean and mean' and score a first-round TKO, as Tokkos has been finished in all his losses.
Zane also picks Tokkos, reasoning that Tafa's move down to light heavyweight won't fix his fundamental issues. He notes that Tokkos is a hard worker who tries to win, and that Tafa's one-note striking might not be enough to put him away. Zane is not confident, calling it a terrible fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 71 of 128 | 55% | 71 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Sean Sharaf | 0 | 53 of 118 | 44% | 54 of 122 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Tafa | 0 | 36 of 75 | 48% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Sharaf | 0 | 46 of 102 | 45% | 47 of 106 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 2 | Junior Tafa | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Sean Sharaf | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa | 71 of 128 | 55% | 61 of 117 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 71 of 128 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Sharaf | 53 of 118 | 44% | 39 of 101 | 7 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 44 of 93 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Tafa | 36 of 75 | 48% | 28 of 66 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Sharaf | 46 of 102 | 45% | 34 of 87 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 37 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 22 | |
| 2 | Junior Tafa | 35 of 53 | 66% | 33 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Sharaf | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: ODDS: Tafa (-400), Sharaf (+250)
Round 1
The UFC nearly went two months without staging a heavyweight fight, with the last one between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Tai Tuivasa in the middle of August. Tafa (5-3, 1-3 UFC), one of the other hefty participants that night, will try to get back in the win column at the expense of relative neophyte Sharaf (4-0, 0-0 UFC). Referee Mark Smith will be keeping his head on a swivel, as these two sluggers combine for nine knockouts across their nine wins. Gloves are briefly touched, and Sharaf does not waste time and winds up a low kick and look for a big right hand. Sharaf backs Tafa against the fence and swings for the bleachers, forcing Tafa to bounce off the wall. Tafa jabs to the body, and Sharaf comes up top with a one-two. Tafa splits the guard with long punches, and Sharaf thumps the front leg with a kick. Tafa winds up with a counter right hand to nail the newcomer on the side of the head, and Sharaf dives after him for a takedown. Tafa grabs the fence to keep himself on his feet, and Smith is not happy about that and calls time to warn him of his foul. When they resume, it does not take more than a few seconds for Sharaf to charge his foe and get the takedown he was seeking. Tafa does not stay on his back for long before getting back to his feet, and they stand in the center of the cage and trade single strikes. The ferocity between the two is not nearly as intense as before, but Tafa breaks this up by blasting Sharaf in the side of the head and shaking him up. Tafa showboats by pointing at Sharaf’s corner, and Sharaf surges into action with thunderous punches that back “The Juggernaut” to the wall again. Tafa strafes away in part due to a successful takedown defense, and he scores a few leg kicks and follows one with a left hook. Sharaf keeps a decent poker face but is stung from the blow, and Tafa winds up and nails him on the temple to further shake him up. Tafa marches him down, walking through wild counters while picking his shots that are landing cleaner and heavier. Tafa backs off to adjust his shorts, and he checks a calf kick and leans back as a left hook comes his way. Tafa slips two lefts around the guard and unloads haymakers, only for Sharaf to stand form and rock him with two hooks and drag him to the mat with a double. Tafa turns to his side as Sharaf claims full mount, and Sharaf beats on him with punches and elbows. Sharaf swarms his man with elbows until the horn saves an exhausted Tafa.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sharaf
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sharaf
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sharaf
Round 2
The big men are sucking wind after five minutes of brawling, and they get back to it and tap their large hands together. Tafa fights behind his jab, tripling up on it and following with a right hand. Sharaf tries a labored shot, and he gets caught with a right hand. Sharaf steps out with a left hand, and Tafa intercepts him with an uppercut while stopping a shot. Sharaf digs a left to the body and a right to the head, and Tafa surges into action. Tafa winds up a massive right hand, and Sharaf don’t like it. His casbah is rocked. Tafa throws hammers until he runs out of steam, and he has no choice but to disengage as Sharaf is still in the fight albeit bloodied from his left eye. Tafa unloads a right hand around the guard of his opponent, and he marches forward and rifles off three uppercuts. Sharaf is barely on his feet, taking a deep breath and leaning back to avoid a haymaker. Tafa laughs off a possible shot and walks Sharaf from one side of the cage to the other.
The spent Kiwi summons all his energy into one final punch, in the form of a booming right hand that clips Sharaf on the temple. Sharaf stumbles away, hanging on tightly to consciousness, and Smith sees he is not intelligently defending himself and waves the fight off.
Taking the fight earlier this week, Sharaf showed off several solid moments and about five minutes of cardio, and Tafa had just a little more in the tank to get his hand raised. The victorious “Juggernaut” retains his 100% knockout rate, and he drops to his seat in exhaustion.
The Official Result
Junior Tafa def. Sean Sharaf R2 2:15 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Junior Tafa, citing his kickboxing skills and the fact that Chris Barnett hasn't fought in two years. He notes that Barnett's athleticism declines with age and that Tafa should be able to piece him up on the feet. Angelo mentions that Tafa's takedown defense is a hole, but Barnett is unlikely to exploit it. He believes Tafa will win via striking and that the layoff will show rust on Barnett.
Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Tafa is a sizable favorite and has the striking advantage, but acknowledges that if Sharaf wrestles, Tafa has no takedown defense or ground game. However, since Sharaf hasn't shown wrestling, Brady expects Tafa to knock him out early. He mentions the under is juiced and thinks someone gets finished in the first round.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Sharaf is a typical heavyweight signing with no tape, who will be aggressive but likely sucks if he doesn't knock Tafa out instantly. He points out that Tafa has at least shown some striking ability and is not as easily overwhelmed as Sharaf's previous opponents.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Daniel notes Tafa's significant size and age advantages over Barnett, who is 5'8", 38 years old, and obese. He believes Tafa's striking is excellent and that Barnett will stand and trade, leading to a knockout. The only concern is Tafa's poor grappling if taken down, but Daniel thinks Barnett won't attempt takedowns.
The host is not a fan of Junior Tafa, calling him overrated with only one UFC victory that he 'cheated' to get via a fence grab. Sharaf is a short-notice replacement but a longtime member of Extreme Couture, training with Francis Ngannou and others. Sharaf should engage in striking and possibly grappling, showcasing better MMA and pulling off the upset.
The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa over Chris Barnett (note: transcript says Chris Barnett but fight card lists Sean Sharaf; likely a mistake in transcript). He trusts Tafa's boxing and power at heavyweight over Barnett's kicks and unorthodox striking. He notes Barnett's history of being knocked out and his poor boxing, while Tafa is young and hits hard with clean boxing.
Zane picks Tafa because he has more experience and can throw combinations, having done some kickboxing. He notes that Sharaf has almost no tape and is likely a one-dimensional knockout artist who will struggle if he doesn't finish early. Zane thinks Tafa's craftiness with punches gives him the edge.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 20 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 20 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Junior Tafa | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Junior Tafa | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tafa (-130), Walker (+110)
Round 1
The prelims close with a heavyweight smash-‘em-up derby where one of these two heavy hitters will likely wind up face down before it is all over. All but one of Tafa’s (5-2, 1-2 UFC) pro outings have ended by knockout, while Walker (11-1, 0-1 UFC) is no stranger to bludgeoning another man unconscious. Keeping his head on a swivel will be referee Steve Perceval, as feet and fists are sure to soar in moments. Before that happens, there is a sporting glove touch from the competitors. They are uncharacteristically tentative to begin the fight, with only one leg kick landing for the first 30 seconds. Tafa walks through the kick and busts Walker in the face, stumbling Walker against the cage. Tafa continues throwing hands, stinging Walker again, and Walker tries to slow things down and pursue a takedown. On his second effort, Walker manages to wrench “The Juggernaut” to the canvas. Tafa scoots to the fence and wall-walks to stand up, and Tafa grabs the fence to fight off a mat return. Walker scoops his legs out beneath him and dumps Tafa to the floor, and Tafa again grabs the cage in hopes of standing. Perceval is on top of it, warning Tafa again. Walker gets in a single left hand while trying to keep Tafa on the mat, hoping to settle in half guard. Walker grinds from on top with occasional short punches, and the crowd tries to energize Tafa with a local chant. Tafa remains pinned to the floor with a heavy man above him, and Perceval asks for more activity. Tafa clings to the neck to keep Walker stuck, or perhaps force a standup, and Walker breaks out of it and jams down an elbow. Commentators Daniel Cormier and Dominick Cruz heavily criticize Tafa’s complete inability and seeming lack of knowledge to get back to his feet, and
Walker changes things up by rolling for a sudden heel hook. Tafa flops to his back and screams, and as soon as he turns to his side, Perceval waves the fight off while shouting “Stop!”
Tafa is enraged, going to slap Walker in the face after the fight concludes, claiming that he did not tap out. His shout out was considered a verbal submission by Perceval—the right call, with screams specifically considered verbal tapouts in the Unified Rules—and officials pull the upset Tafa away and force him back to his corner. Tafa is not about to drop it, continuing to shout at the victorious Walker and flip him the middle finger during the official announcement. No amount of protest from Tafa will change the result, which will stand as a submission.
The Official Result
Valter Walker def. Junior Tafa R1 4:56 via Verbal Submission (Heel Hook)
Angelo picks Valter Walker to win via wrestling, believing he can get takedowns and control Junior Tafa, who has shown poor takedown defense. However, he talks himself out of betting on Walker because his last fight was an embarrassing cardio failure, and the odds are not plus money. He calls Walker 'absolutely horrible' but thinks he can win if he shows up prepared.
Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by second-round knockout. He is not high on either fighter but thinks Tafa has the advantage on the feet. He notes Valter Walker can wrestle and will likely get takedowns in the first round, but Walker gasses out early and looked terrible in his last fight. He expects Walker to tire in the second round, allowing Tafa to stuff takedowns and land a knockout. He says he would not bet this fight with a 10-foot pole, especially laying chalk on Tafa.
Cody believes Walker's wrestling will be the difference, as Tafa has poor takedown defense and no get-up game. He notes Walker looked improved physically and should learn from his debut loss. Cody expects Walker to take Tafa down and control him, possibly earning a submission or decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Valter Walker to win a decision, expecting him to look better than his debut. He notes that Tafa has been taken down and lost in the past, and that Walker's grappling could be the difference. Vreeland acknowledges the volatility and that Tafa has finishing upside, but leans toward the underdog Walker at plus money.
The host loves Walker as a plus-115 underdog, citing Tafa's poor takedown defense and ground game. He expects Walker to take Tafa down and grind him out, possibly finishing by ground and pound or submission. He calls the line a gift and is mystified by it.
Paul agrees, noting that everyone who has tried to take Tafa down has succeeded, and that Walker's best skill is wrestling. He warns that if Walker stands and trades, he'll get knocked out, but expects him to stick to the game plan. Paul also mentions Walker's improved physique and the need to see weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa over Valter Walker. He acknowledges Walker's grappling but calls him a dumb fighter who didn't shoot takedowns against Lucas Brzeski despite getting them every time. He believes Tafa's takedown defense, shown against Mohammed Usman, will hold up. He predicts Tafa will KO Walker, calling Walker a large middleweight rather than a true heavyweight. He rants about heavyweight fighters being brainless.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Junior Tafa but is hesitant, calling it a sketchy pick. He notes Tafa's power, speed, and technical kickboxing, but questions his takedown defense. He bet $25 on Tafa at -195 as an experiment based on line movement (Tafa opened as underdog, now favorite). He acknowledges the risk and advises not to blindly tail.
Big Brady picks Mohammad Usman to win by a greasy decision, but he wants nothing to do with this fight from a betting perspective. He notes that Usman's path to victory is to wrestle and take the fight to the mat, as Tafa is a much better striker but has questionable takedown defense and cardio. However, Brady is not confident in Usman, calling him 'very bad' and noting he got lucky in his last fight. He also mentions the wild line movement but stayed away from betting it.
Cody picks Tafa, calling him a world-class kickboxer while Usman is not good. He criticizes Usman's wrestling, cardio, and tendency to rely on one-punch power. Cody notes Usman's wins on The Ultimate Fighter were close and he struggled against older competition. He believes Tafa will win by knockout if the fight stays standing, which is likely.
Connor picks Mohammed Usman, reasoning that Usman is much bigger and stronger than Tafa, and that neither fighter is likely to get knocked out. He expects a wild brawl for five minutes followed by a slog, and thinks Usman's size will allow him to hold Tafa enough to win. Connor notes that Usman hits like a truck and has never been knocked out.
Mohammad Usman has a massive experience advantage over Junior Tafa, who has less than a year of MMA experience. Usman is a mediocre fighter but has fought higher-level competition. Tafa is a raw kickboxer with poor takedown defense, as seen in his regional fights. Usman should be able to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision or TKO. The odds have moved significantly in Tafa's favor, but Usman's MMA experience should prevail.
Paul also picks Tafa, agreeing with Cody. He notes that if Usman doesn't shoot for takedowns, Tafa will likely clip him. Paul acknowledges the risk that Usman could use wrestling, but doubts he will. He calls it a low-level heavyweight fight where anything can happen.
The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, going against Mohammad Usman. He sees no skill in Usman's game and notes Tafa's combat sports experience in boxing, kickboxing, and Muay Thai. He thinks Tafa's activity and momentum are advantages, and that Usman is unimpressive with losses to Brandon Sales and a split decision over Eduardo Perez. He predicts a first-round KO.
Zane also picks Mohammed Usman, but with low confidence, calling it a coin flip. He notes that Usman is stiff and disconnected but hits hard, while Tafa is a wild combination puncher who gasses. Zane thinks the fight will be a mess and that Usman's size advantage might be the deciding factor.
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