vs
+112 +100
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 8"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Pat Sabatini
1.69 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
1.09 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
4.48 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tucker Lutz
3.74 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.25 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.99 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Pat Sabatini
Moneyline
FanDuel +112
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1200
Submission
FanDuel +400
Decision
DraftKings +250
Tucker Lutz
Moneyline
BetWay +100
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetRivers +215
Pat Sabatini - Fight History
WIN vs William Gomis
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 25 of 70 35% 78 of 125 3 of 20 15% 0 0 11:12
William Gomis 0 23 of 64 35% 54 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 3 of 11 27% 16 of 24 1 of 6 16% 0 0 4:36
William Gomis 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pat Sabatini 0 8 of 30 26% 31 of 54 1 of 7 14% 0 0 3:17
William Gomis 0 10 of 30 33% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Pat Sabatini 0 14 of 29 48% 31 of 47 1 of 7 14% 0 0 3:19
William Gomis 0 11 of 30 36% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 25 of 70 35% 7 of 44 6 of 10 12 of 16 18 of 57 7 of 13 0 of 0
William Gomis 23 of 64 35% 12 of 50 8 of 10 3 of 4 13 of 49 10 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 3 of 11 27% 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 3 of 7 0 of 0
William Gomis 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 8 of 30 26% 2 of 19 2 of 5 4 of 6 7 of 27 1 of 3 0 of 0
William Gomis 10 of 30 33% 5 of 22 4 of 6 1 of 2 7 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Pat Sabatini 14 of 29 48% 3 of 15 3 of 4 8 of 10 11 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0
William Gomis 11 of 30 36% 6 of 25 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 22 5 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-205), Gomis (+170)

Round 1
An interesting stylistic clash will move the prelims along, with grappling ace Sabatini (21-5, 8-2 UFC) ready and willing to burst out after 10 previous walks to the cage. He will square off with MMA Factory product Gomis (15-3, 5-1 UFC), with the two featherweights under observation by referee Vincent Dudley. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
The taller Gomis marches forward, watching Sabatini kicks fly past him. Sabatini shoots in low for a single, forcing Gomis to the wall and hurling him to the floor. Gomis climbs back up but is still in the arms of his opponent. This strategy totally stifles the Frenchman, with Sabatini controlling and not needing to take the fight down to keep Gomis from landing anything. Johnny Cage, the Pennsylvanian isn’t, as he would much rather wrestle than throw hands, feet, elbows or his sunglasses.
Gomis turns to put his shoulder on the fence and try to escape, but he is stuck without answers. Sabatini slugs him a few times in the face with his free hand, otherwise controlling for long stretches at a time. Little else happens while they do this. Sabatini goes low for a single, briefly dragging Gomis to a knee. Gomis stands, and Sabatini complains to Dudley that his glove is being grabbed. Dudley clears Gomis from any foul, and while they are paying attention to the referee, Sabatini slings Gomis to his seat. Gomis tries for a few elbow strikes from a funny angle, and the slog of a round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 2
Gomis walks Sabatini down to start the round, but he does not commit to anything as he knows a takedown attempt is coming. Sabatini feints, fakes and works his way forward to back Gomis off, and he shoots in on his hips. Gomis stands him up by putting his back to the cage wall, with Sabatini leaning on him kneeing him once or twice. Sabatini lifts Gomis’ left leg all the way in the air to set him down on the canvas, but he can only keep Gomis down for a second or two before he is back up. Sabatini lifts Gomis off the ground completely to slam him on his face, and once more, Gomis is speedy at rushing back to his feet. The grind is firmly embraced by Sabatini, as he has controlled and neutralized the Frenchman largely to this point.
Gomis times the right moment to escape, and he takes a right hand on the beard as he resets. Gomis kicks Sabatini in the groin, and Sabatini waves him off and keeps plodding forward. Sabatini loops a right hand, a left, and a jumping switch kick behind it. Gomis times a body kick when he is landing, and he just misses a head kick to follow. Sabatini ducks a one-two to attack a takedown, pushing Gomis to the fencing to defend it. He holds Gomis in place, but does not ground him. With 15 seconds left in the round, Gomis breaks out. They clash kicks at the same time, and both trade fierce hands before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 3
The athletes touch gloves, and Gomis wants to punch him in the face directly thereafter. They clash leg kicks together, their shins slamming together loudly. Gomis loads up on power, hoping for the home run blow as he is likely down on the scorecards. Two takedown shots from Sabatini fail, and Gomis stands him up with a flush elbow on the cheek. Sabatini, swelling growing under his left eye fast from that elbow, plods forward threatening and faking strikes on his way in. He dives after a single, pushing Gomis to the fence with three-plus minutes left on the clock. Fans do not appreciate the ubiquitous grappler who is somehow able to get all over Gomis and completely overwhelm him with his approach at once.
Gomis knees him in the stomach, and he gets dragged down to the floor on his face. Sabatini briefly grinds Gomis face on a part of the canvas with blood drops on it that make a pattern reminiscent of a gruesome ladybug, and Gomis fights as best he can to stand back up. Sabatini chains attempts to hit mat returns, and otherwise rips precious seconds off the clock. Gomis gets space with seconds left and starts throwing hands wildly like a spinning top. Sabatini rocks him with a right hand, and the grueling contest ends. Gomis raises his hand in hopes that he sneaks out two of three rounds to get the unexpected nod. We’ll see what happens.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-27 Sabatini)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-27 Sabatini)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-27 Sabatini)

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. William Gomis via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo is confident in Pat Sabatini, noting his incredible grappling and control. He believes Sabatini will take down William Gomez repeatedly and that Gomez's slow technical style won't be enough to stop the takedowns. He mentions that Sabatini has looked incredible lately and that the odds are good value.

has some bets on him
"Pat's going to be the pick and I'm definitely more confident than these odds are in him."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability. He notes Sabatini took down Chepe Mariscal seven times and expects similar against Gomis. He says Gomis can be taken down and lacks one-punch knockout power, so Sabatini faces no risk of being KO'd. He loves the minus 133 odds and thinks it's a dominant win.

Angelo mentions the odds are minus 133 and he absolutely loves those odds.
"Pat Sabatini is the pick and unless he decides to go out there and showcase to a hometown crowd and start only throwing hands, it's not going to be an exciting fight, but it should be a dominant one that …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady is confident Pat Sabatini wins, citing his elite wrestling and control. He notes Gomis lacks power and has been taken down and put in bad spots before. Brady expects Sabatini to get takedowns and secure a submission, specifically a second-round submission, as Gomis has shown vulnerability to submissions.

"I actually think Pat Sabatini not only wins this fight, but potentially gets a submission as well. I'll take Pat Sabatini to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, citing his wrestling and submission skills. He notes Gomis's takedown defense issues and thinks Sabatini can control him on the ground. Cody expects Sabatini to win by submission or decision.

Sabatini by submission (plus 200)
"Sabatini by sub has my attention, too, because it's like plus 200."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Connor picks Sabatini, believing his wrestling is good enough to get takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Sabatini is a better wrestler than others who have had success against Gomis. Connor expects a razor-thin decision, possibly a split, but thinks Sabatini's dedication to his game plan will earn him the nod.

Sabatini opened at -270, now -200; Gomis opened at +230, now +170.
"I'll take Sabatini for the hell of it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel picks Sabatini, reasoning that Gomis is a point fighter who doesn't dish out much damage, so Sabatini will take him down and control him on the ground. He believes Sabatini's grappling will be the difference.

"I'm also going Sabatini. The reason why is the way to beat him is to put the damage on him. And Gome is very good point fighter, but point fighter, he doesn't really dish out too much damage. I think …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Sabatini has home advantage and a relentless grappling style that will smother Gomis. Gomis is a volume striker who needs distance, but Sabatini will either be far outside or in the clinch/takedown range. Gomis has poor takedown defense and takes a long time to get back up; he's been in many split decisions. Sabatini's cardio allows him to grapple for three rounds. Unless Gomis has significantly improved his takedown defense, Sabatini should control the fight.

Bet at 1.46 odds (implied -216). No stake mentioned explicitly, but implied from context. No other props.
"I think that Pat Sabatini is a great bet this weekend for lots of different reasons... I do like Sabatini a lot this weekend. I know he's a big favorite... 1.46 minus 216 for an implied probability of 68% is …"
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Lean picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Pat Sabatini

Predicted method: Submission Round 2. Sabatini's grappling-heavy style (4.48 takedowns per round, 1.5 submission average) is a clear path to victory against Gomis, who has only 72% takedown defense and has been taken down multiple times. Gomis has a reach advantage (73" vs 70") and solid striking, but Sabatini's pressure and top control will neutralize that. Sabatini has won three straight and is a proven finisher on the ground. Expect Sabatini to secure takedowns and win by submission or decision.

Sabatini by submission +270
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating that Gomez will either land a knee or headkick on an entry or get taken down and controlled. He praises Sabatini's wrestling and control, noting that Gomez is comfortable fighting off his back foot but that Sabatini's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He thinks the price is about right.

"I just think Williams probably going to land a knee or he isn't. And then if he's not, you know, I think it's priced pretty right."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini because he believes Sabatini's grappling will be too much for William Gomis, who is a pure striker without power or strong takedown defense. He notes that Gomis prefers to stay on the outside, which plays into Sabatini's game of closing distance and taking the fight to the ground. He predicts Sabatini wins by submission in round two.

"Pat Sabatini to win this fight. ... via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The host picks Sabatini, emphasizing his dominant grappling and ability to control opponents on the ground. He notes that Sabatini's striking is a liability but believes his wrestling will be too much for Gomis, who has shown defensive grappling improvements but may struggle to keep the fight standing. He expects Sabatini to win by decision, possibly at a better price if the line moves.

"I'm still going to go with Sabatini here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Paul picks Sabatini, citing his grappling advantage and Gomis's vulnerability. He thinks Sabatini will get takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Sabatini to win by decision.

"Pat Sabatini is the man. Now how does he lose fights is when he doesn't shoot the takedowns."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini, praising his elite grappling. He notes Sabatini dominated Shep Mariscal and Joe Anderson Britto, while Gomis had close fights with Britto and others. He worries about Sabatini's chin on the feet but believes his takedowns and top control will secure a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26.

"I'm going to go with Pat Zabatini to get this one done. Also, William Gomez, um not Clayton Carpenter."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
William Gomis

Zane picks Gomis hesitantly. He notes that Gomis is a back-foot neutralizer who can make Sabatini work hard for takedowns. However, Gomis is not a finisher and may not do enough to win rounds decisively. Zane thinks Sabatini's one-dimensional wrestling could be neutralized, leading to a close decision, but Gomis's ability to avoid damage and counter could edge it.

Sabatini opened at -270, now -200; Gomis opened at +230, now +170. Feels like a coin flip.
"I think I am still going to pick Gomes."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 12 of 29 41% 40 of 61 7 of 12 58% 0 0 10:37
Chepe Mariscal 0 7 of 19 36% 48 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 4 of 11 36% 8 of 15 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:39
Chepe Mariscal 0 1 of 4 25% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:33
2 Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 13 53% 21 of 31 4 of 8 50% 0 0 3:36
Chepe Mariscal 0 5 of 10 50% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:22
Chepe Mariscal 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 12 of 29 41% 10 of 24 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 2 of 2 6 of 9
Chepe Mariscal 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 2 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 13 1 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 4 of 11 36% 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 6
Chepe Mariscal 5 of 10 50% 1 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 2
3 Pat Sabatini 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3
Chepe Mariscal 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, praising his pressure, wrestling, and scrambling ability. He believes Chepe is the better striker and wrestler, and that Pat Sabatini's striking is stiff and he is chinny. Angelo is confident and placed a bet at -113, expecting the line to expand.

bet at -113 odds
"Chepee is the pick. And right off the rip, we've got a pretty affordable money line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal as a slight underdog, acknowledging a clear path for Sabatini via wrestling but favoring Mariscal's striking power. He notes Sabatini's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Damon Jackson and Diego Lopez, and believes Mariscal can exploit that. Brady sees Mariscal's judo as helpful in getting back to his feet and predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"Give me Chepe Mariscal to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, noting that his grappling is elite and that Mariscal has been taken down by everyone. He believes Sabatini has learned from his knockout losses and will stick to wrestling. Cody thinks Sabatini can grind out a decision or possibly submit Mariscal. He is not fully confident but sees the path.

"I actually have him going Pat Sabatini."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Connor also picks Mariscal, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Mariscal is one of the most fluidly offensively minded fighters and that Sabatini needs to dominate and stop the fight from happening, which he can't do against Mariscal. He thinks Mariscal's style is a nightmare for Sabatini.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently -130? Connor says 'I agreed'.
"I agreed."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel sees this as a close fight and picks the underdog Mariscal to win again. He notes that Sabatini's chin is suspect and Mariscal's judo and wild style could keep the fight standing, where Sabatini is vulnerable. He expects a back-and-forth scrap that could end in a knockout for Mariscal.

"I'm going to take the underdog chep Marisk to beat Pat Sabatini for a second time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini to win, believing his elite grappling and top control will be too much for Mariscal. He notes Sabatini's improved control since their first fight and Mariscal's tendency to be taken down. He expects Sabatini to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision.

"I'm picking Patrick Sabatini to get his revenge and win this fight as the underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal makes it look more dominant than their first fight. He scrambles and stays ahead of Sabatini, then overwhelms him on the feet leading to a TKO victory.

TKO victory
"I expect him to make it look more dominant while he scrambles and stays ahead of the game with Sabatini and then eventually overwhelms Sabatini on the feet leading to a TKO victory for Jeep Mariscal."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul leans towards Mariscal, noting that he is a better striker and has knockout power. He points out that Sabatini has been knocked out when he tries to strike. Paul thinks Mariscal could win by knockout if he keeps the fight standing. However, he acknowledges the risk of Sabatini's grappling and is not fully committed.

Chepe by knockout (suggested at +370)
"Chepe by knockout if you get a good price on it, 100% on the table."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, highlighting his pressure, volume, chin, and scrambling ability. He believes Mariscal's stocky frame will make him hard to hold down for Sabatini, who relies on control. The Guru also notes that judging trends may favor Mariscal if the fight is close. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Mariscal.

"I'm going to go with Shet Mariscal here. Um, I actually might take him by finish for once."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Zane picks Mariscal, noting that Mariscal is an excellent scrambler who never stops fighting and that Sabatini struggles to lock him down. He thinks the fight will be uncomfortable for Sabatini because Mariscal is fluid and creative in scrambles. He also notes that Mariscal has never been submitted and has a good chin.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently +110? Actually, transcript says 'Marasco is an underdog mind open a minus 200 currently plus one 10' but then '17, you the favorite, but a plus one 70 currently minus one 30' - likely confusion. Based on context, Mariscal is favorite at -130. Zane says 'I don't understand that at all' about the odds.
"I still think it's going to be a fight that it's just fundamentally uncomfortable for Sabatini because it's very difficult to lock Chepe Marasco down and keep him out of the fight."
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 24 of 31 77% 135 of 158 4 of 5 80% 1 0 13:47
Joanderson Brito 0 3 of 9 33% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 12 of 14 85% 22 of 28 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:43
Joanderson Brito 0 1 of 1 100% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pat Sabatini 0 6 of 8 75% 52 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:34
Joanderson Brito 0 2 of 4 50% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Pat Sabatini 0 6 of 9 66% 61 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:30
Joanderson Brito 0 0 of 4 0% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 24 of 31 77% 22 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 23
Joanderson Brito 3 of 9 33% 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 12 of 14 85% 12 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 12
Joanderson Brito 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 5
Joanderson Brito 2 of 4 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Pat Sabatini 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 6
Joanderson Brito 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joanderson Brito vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brito (-205), Sabatini (+170)

Round 1
It is a grappler against a wild man in the co-main event, one where the winner might potentially have a number next to their name on Monday. Philly-based grappler Sabatini (19-5, 6-2 UFC) will present danger for as long as the bout is on the mat, but every fight starts on the feet. Brito (17-4-1, 5-2 UFC) is no slouch when grappling, so fun exchanges could come early and often. Referee Keith Peterson will have his hands full with these featherweights, although he is able to take a breath as the fighters look to collide with no nonsense in the building. Fists are bumped before they are traded, and Brito gest right to walking the American down. Sabatini springs from side to side, tossing out one kick and having Brito respond with a kick. Sabatini follows the Brazilian’s kick with a single, which he uses to deposit Brito on the canvas easily. Brito defends with the guillotine off his back, opening himself up to Von Preux choke danger as Sabatini traps him with an arm-triangle at the same time. Brito scoots his way to the wall to take a bit of pressure off of him, and he follows the moving legs of his opponent to maintain half guard or guard. Sabatini tries again for the Von Flue, and he pulls his own head out of Brito’s sub. Sabatini stays flat on his man, squeezing down with an arm-triangle setup while Brito smacks him with short but frustrating strikes off his back. Sabatini gets off the heavier of the blows while above, but Brito still manages to put his back on the wire. Sabatini pulls him away from the fence, and Brito sits to stand while Sabatini threatening with a guillotine choke. Sabatini lands a single knee before letting go of the choke, and he lifts Brito in the air and slams him down to the floor. With Brito hanging on with the guillotine, the Von Preux counter is troubling him as Sabatini clings to his neck with his left arm. Sabatini uses his weight to push Brito against the wall and hope for the leverage to be right for a submission. Brito stays calm and wriggles his neck out of danger, and Sabatini climbs into half guard and assaults him with punches and elbows. Brito attacks off his back, and again Sabatini’s are far more effective. The one-sided round ends with both men flailing at one another.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 2
Sabatini motions awkwardly to his opponent, offering the glove touch while also wanting to stay far away from the grappler. Brito kicks, and Sabatini sells out for a takedown. Brito hits his seat searching for a front choke, and Sabatini laughs it off and pushes Brito to his back. Sabatini establishes himself on top in half guard, smothering Brito and preventing the expected explosions thanks in part to heavy chest pressure. Sabatini looks to hook up a crucifix with his knee, and he opens things up to try to pass guard, only for Brito to drag him back. Sabatini strikes when he finds openings, irritating the dangerous “Tubarao” while energy is drained from his tank. Brito uses butterfly hooks to push off, and Sabatini is so singularly focused on the top control that he is not budging. Sabatini scores several left hands on the chin, and he times Brito sitting up to flatten him back out in an instant. The Brazilian is out of ideas, with Sabatini two steps ahead of him at every turn. Sabatini renders his foe fairly powerless until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 3
Brito jogs out of his corner to touch gloves, and he dodges a spin strike to come up top with a huge right hand. Sabatini rolls with the punch and switches stances to work his way forward. Brito absorbs a spinning back fist to swing back a right hand, and he jumps guard with a guillotine choke when Sabatini shoots in for a single. Sabatini issues the thumbs-up a few times as the submission is not under his chin, and he threatens with another Von Preux until Brito releases the grip. Sabatini resides in the half guard, where he has spent most of this fight, and he bludgeons Brito every so often. When Brito goes for broke swinging with his back stuck on the floor, Sabatini postures up to drill him with some ground-and-pound. The smothering continues for the Renzo Gracie Philly fighter, displaying that there are levels to this grappling thing. Brito, a savvy submission artist in his own right, has been blanked tonight, with a ceiling that is very clear above him. Sabatini circles around to take Brito’s back, getting his hooks in, and he starts hunting for a kneebar. When Brito turns over, he gives up mount, and Sabatini starts whaling on him. Brito gets to a knee despite taking strikes on the sides of the head, and Sabatini takes any remaining hope and deposits it in the local trash can with dominant control and grappling wizardry. It might not have been the most scintillating to watch, but Sabatini sends a message that the fearsome marauder Brito has met his match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini (30-25 Sabatini)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Joanderson Brito via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Angelo acknowledges this fight has trap written all over it. He notes Joanderson Brito has power and Pat Sabatini is chinny, but also that Brito's BJJ off his back is poor while Sabatini is phenomenal on top. He predicts the fight won't go the distance, with Brito likely knocking out Sabatini or Sabatini submitting Brito. He picks Brito due to cardio improvements and power, but warns Sabatini could sneak a win as a dog.

does not go the distance
"I'm going to pick breu and maybe he's going to land clean and that'll be the end of it or maybe he plants his feet overcommits gets taken down and put in a lot of trouble early either way does …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Big Brady picks Joanderson Brito, citing Pat Sabatini's questionable chin and Brito's power. He believes Sabatini needs a perfect 15-minute grappling performance to win, but Brito will eventually land a big shot and knock him out, likely in the first round.

first round knockout
"give me Joe Anderson bre2 to win this fight I'll say it's first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Brito. He highlights Brito's dangerous athleticism and Sabatini's stiffness on the feet. Connor notes that Brito's chaotic style often leads to finishes, and while Sabatini could win by grinding him down, Brito's ability to create scrambles and his durability make him the pick. He also mentions Brito's tendency to put himself in bad positions but believes Sabatini is too breakable.

"Sounds right to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Sabatini could have success with his chain wrestling and BJJ, but Brito's striking and power are favored. Brito is expected to land big power shots that Sabatini cannot handle, leading to a knockout in the first or second round.

knockout in round 1 or 2
"I have to lean with the Striking and power of Bru sabatini could have some success with his chain wrestling and his BJJ but look for britu to land big Power shots that sabatini is unable to handle leading to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

The Guru picks Joanderson Brito, calling him too powerful, fast, and dangerous on the feet. He notes Brito's win over Diego Lopez and believes he will stuff Sabatini's takedowns and land strikes for a TKO. He expects a first-round finish, possibly within two minutes, and considers the matchup a mismatch.

Joanderson Brito wins by TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Joe Anderson Britto. Powerful start. probably draw out a bad panicked shot from Pat Sabatini pretty early on and then just start cruising and bruising for a TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Zane picks Brito, emphasizing Sabatini's stiff striking and vulnerability to being overwhelmed. He notes Brito's athleticism and tendency to finish fights, but also his recklessness. Zane believes Sabatini's anxious, structured style will struggle with Brito's chaotic, high-pressure approach, and that Brito's athleticism will create a moment where Sabatini can't secure a takedown and gets caught.

Brito opened -206, now -236; Sabatini opened +169, now +213. Zane notes the line shouldn't get wider.
"I'm gonna take britu I'm gonna take britu as well. I think there's just gonna be a moment in this fight where Sabatini can't keep that takedown or can't force that takedown."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:06 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 2 of 2 100% 32 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Pearce 0 3 of 5 60% 19 of 25 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 2 of 2 100% 32 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Pearce 0 3 of 5 60% 19 of 25 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Pearce 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Pearce 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pearce (-130), Sabatini (+110)

Round 1
Grapplers enter the Octagon in what should be a fun stylistic clash. On a rare losing streak, Pearce (14-6, 5-3 UFC) has his back against the wall, but the same might be said for Sabatini (18-5, 5-2 UFC), who has dropped two of three. Someone will turn things around in the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Chris Tognoni will follow them every step of the way. Before throwing hands, “JSP” walks over to the other corner to deliver a friendly fist bump. Pearce takes to the center of the cage, and they clash body kicks at the same time. As they tangle up, Sabatini manages to sneak around and grab Pearce from behind, where he hops on his back to take the form of a mean-spirited backpack. Sabatini locks a body triangle around the waist, slugging his left hand around the raised guard of his foe. Pearce leans against the wall to relieve himself of some of the extra weight, and he turns his shoulder to sling Sabatini off of him. The Pennsylvanian turns the corner to get his arms around Pearce once more, and “JSP” is warned for fence grabs to keep himself on his feet. Rules are mere suggestions in the sport of MMA. Sabatini scoops up Pearce’s legs and steps over him to ground him, and Pearce is warned for elbowing the spine and attempting 12-6 elbows—these will be allowed next month. Pearce uses a butterfly guard to keep Sabatini from establishing a more traditional top position, only for Sabatini to smother him and move to half guard. Sabatini steps over to three-quarter mount, hunting for a choke when Pearce turns the wrong direction. Sabatini looks for another submission as Pearce gets to his knees, and Sabatini’s body triangle is wrapped firmly around the ribs. Pearce stands up and elbows Sabatini’s thigh to try to break up the body lock.
Sabatini leans to add his weight to different places on the back, and he slithers his forearm beneath the chin and fastens a nasty rear-naked choke. Pearce’s head turns a brilliant shade of red, and he thinks about going out on his shield but elects to fight another day and taps out.
Sabatini releases the lock and walks to the center of the cage, letting out one triumphant shout before calming himself. Sabatini tries his best to stay cool, but cannot help but flip around the cage, bellowing and fist-pumping in celebration.

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Jonathan Pearce R1 4:06 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, citing his relentless wrestling pressure and awareness of Sabatini's jiu-jitsu. He notes that Sabatini hasn't improved his skills since entering the UFC and that Pearce's non-stop takedown attempts will be key. Angelo also thinks Pearce can have success on the feet, as Sabatini's striking is technical but lacks head movement. He mentions he placed a half-unit bet on Pearce at -131.

Bet half a unit at -131
"I think Jonathan Pierce wins this fight... threw a little bit of a half a unit on him at minus 131."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Jonathan Pearce to win by TKO in the second round. He considers this one of his favorite fights on the card, noting both have paths: Sabatini via submission (Pearce has been submitted three times), but Pearce via knockout (Sabatini has been knocked out by Diego Lopes, Damon Jackson, and dropped by Jamall Emmers). He worries about Sabatini's durability and cardio, and believes Pearce's pace will break him down. Despite Pearce potentially getting into bad spots, Brady trusts his ability to fight out of them.

Pearce by TKO in round 2
"I'm leading Jonathan Pierce here and I think he wins this fight via TKO in the second round"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pearce's striking is all fencing and he cannot keep opponents down. He points out that Pearce lost to David Onama despite having control time, and that Sabatini is a better grappler who can win if he gets top position. Connor is surprised Sabatini is the underdog.

"Yeah, I agree"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel thinks Pearce is more well-rounded and has better volume on the feet, but he acknowledges Sabatini's grinding wrestling and durability. He is not confident because Sabatini could easily grind out a win. Daniel leans toward Pearce to outwork him but admits he wouldn't be surprised by a Sabatini decision.

"I'll lean JSP to outwork him... I'm not confident."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Pearce is on a two-fight losing streak but looked good in his last fight against David Onama even in defeat. He should use defensive grappling to keep the fight standing and put a pace on Sabatini, who is uncomfortable in the striking realm. Pearce will keep it upright, push the pace, and finish Sabatini in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"look for a Pierce to keep this fight upright push a pace on Sabatini eventually break him and finish him in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini, highlighting his technical grappling edge over Jonathan Pearce. He notes that Pearce is tough with good cardio but makes mistakes in grappling, often losing position. Sabatini has good submissions and control, and the Guru believes he can submit Pearce. He acknowledges Pearce could TKO Sabatini due to a suspect chin, but favors Sabatini's grappling.

submission win
"I'm actually going to go with Pat sabatini here over Jonathan Pierce... I think that Pat satini actually has a grappling Edge over Jonathan Pierce"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Zane thinks Sabatini will win because he is a more willing and confident striker, though both are stiff. He notes Sabatini has paid for trying to do other things and will just go for takedowns. Zane points out that Pearce has poor control time (23%) and cannot keep opponents down, while Sabatini has 52% control time. He believes Sabatini can get takedowns and win on the ground.

"I got to take Sabatini"
LOSS vs Diego Lopes
KO (punches) R1 1:30 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 13 of 18 72% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 8 3 of 3 6 of 7
Pat Sabatini 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 13 of 18 72% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 8 3 of 3 6 of 7
Pat Sabatini 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-120), Lopes (+100)

Round 1
The main card is upon us, and it should provide a grappler’s delight as the two featherweights about to invade the Octagon combine for 23 submission victories without a single defeat via tapout. Aiming to prove he is not just a grappler, action-packed Brazilian contender Lopes (22-6, 1-1 UFC) will bring his 89% finish rate and try to threaten every step of the fight. With not a great deal of New Yorkers on the card, the UFC dipped into the Tri-State Area to pull Pennsylvanian Sabatini (18-4, 4-1 UFC) up onto the billing, and he too would like to showcase his jiu-jitsu chops when it counts. Referee Keith Peterson will draw the assignment for the pay-per-view opener, and the fighters quickly touch ‘em up. No nonsense will be permitted for the next 15 minutes or less. Both men bounce up and down while quite distant from one another, and Lopes tries to reach with a kick. Sabatini surges forward with a three-punch salvo that gets Lopes’ attention, and Lopes has to shake it off early. Sabatini jumps with a switch kick to the body, and Lopes looks to catch it but lets it go all while chants for “USA” rain down in support of Sabatini. The Pennsylvanian comes up short with another jump kick, and the two come together for a possible takedown effort of some sort. Lopes stands his man up with an uppercut as they try to get upright, and Sabatini is stunned when he tries to take a step back. The Brazilian immediately follows suit with a vicious right hand on the temple, and Sabatini might be out on his feet as he turns to another direction and his eyes go wide. Lopes will not let this fish get away, and he charges after Sabatini with powerful fists until pushing Sabatini down to his side. Lopes traps the Pennsylvania native’s arm behind his back and begins battering Sabatini with his free hand. Sabatini, unable to block his face and clinging to consciousness, gets knocked out, back in, and out again as Lopes punishes him with right hands. Peterson recognizes that Sabatini cannot defend himself at all, and he calls a stop to the beating. What a performance for Lopes, who likely catapults himself into featherweight contendership by wrecking a tough out in about a minute and a half.

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:30 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, believing his takedowns and BJJ will neutralize Lopes. He criticizes Lopes' takedown defense and striking, and thinks Sabatini will control the fight on the ground. He plans to bet on Sabatini later in the week.

"I think Pat sabatini is going to win this fight and I'm somewhat confident in that."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady picks Diego Lopes as the underdog, predicting a second or third round submission. He likes Lopes' evolving striking, power, and dangerous submission game off his back. He worries about Sabatini's durability on the feet, noting he has been dropped early in fights. Brady thinks Lopes has more ways to win and that Sabatini will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes.

Lopes by submission in rounds 2-3
"I'm going to take the dog here in Lopez, I think he gets it done by second or third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, expecting him to get takedowns and control the fight on top. He notes Sabatini's suffocating top game and ability to avoid submissions. He thinks Lopes' guard is dangerous but Sabatini's grappling is good enough to avoid trouble, and he sees value at even money.

"I like Pat sabbatini I think he gets the takedowns I think he establish top control he avoids those tricky submission attempts"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

James leans Diego Lopes because he believes Lopes has a clear advantage on the feet with more power and a better chin, while Sabatini's wrestling may not be sufficient to consistently control Lopes. He notes that Sabatini has been submitted before and is chinny, and Lopes has submission upside. However, he acknowledges Sabatini could have control time on top, making it a tricky matchup.

"I lean Lopez in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Sabatini is the better wrestler and will dictate where the fight takes place. He is a good enough BJJ artist to fend off Lopes' submission attempts. Sabatini will control positions and grind out a decision win. The line at -120 is a good value. Notes that recency bias from Lopes' highlight finishes is inflating his line.

"at minus 120 sign me up for Pat sabatini"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Paul picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and top control. He notes Lopes has been taken down easily in the past and relies on submissions from guard. He thinks Sabatini's suffocating style will neutralize Lopes' offense and lead to a decision win.

"sabatini is just way too suffocating man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, noting his superior Jiu-Jitsu and comfort on the ground, which neutralizes Sabatini's back-taking game. He also highlights Lopes' striking advantage, size, and reach. He predicts a TKO win for Lopes, referencing his recent performances against Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker.

TKO
"I'm going with Diego Lopez I think he's slick dangerous everywhere I think he's going to get a TKO on Pat satini"
WIN vs Lucas Almeida
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 1:48 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 27 of 35 77% 88 of 97 2 of 3 66% 1 0 6:27
Lucas Almeida 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 23 of 31 74% 81 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:50
Lucas Almeida 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pat Sabatini 0 4 of 4 100% 7 of 7 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:37
Lucas Almeida 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 27 of 35 77% 25 of 32 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 24 of 31
Lucas Almeida 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 23 of 31 74% 23 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 23 of 30
Lucas Almeida 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 4 of 4 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1
Lucas Almeida 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Almeida vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-190), Almeida (+160)

Round 1
In a fight that could end in the blink of an eye, submission specialist Sabatini (17-4, 4-1 UFC) takes on once-beaten finisher Almeida (14-1 1-0 UFC). Together, the two featherweights combine for 26 stoppages in their 31 pro wins, so referee Chris Tognoni could have his hands full. Before they throw down, they opt to bump fists. Almeida advances first, but Sabatini ducks any offense and pursues a quick takedown. Almeida fights off a trip attempt on the way back, and Sabatini looks for a body lock throw. Sabatini secures the drop, and he lands right in half guard while pinning Almeida to his back using his shoulder. Almeida sits up against the fence, but Sabatini hooks both his legs and peels him away from it. Sabatini smoothly maneuvers to keep Almeida trapped on the floor, and he drops down left hands. Sabatini pins Almeida’s right arm down to land several unanswered blows, and he frustrates the Brazilian with his active top control. When Almeida attempts to escape in some direction, Sabatini is aware and follows him every step of the way. Sabatini controls his foe and moves into mount briefly, while nullifying anything that Almeida can do to him. Sabatini leaps back into mount with 75 seconds left in the round, and he also traps Almeida’s arm behind the back and blasts him in the face with left hands. Sabatini hammers Almeida with a few elbows, and Almeida defenselessly takes them flush. Sabatini postures up and batters Almeida with punches and elbows, and Almeida is clinging to his foe with all he has left. Sabatini considers an armbar, but he thinks against it and elbows Almeida repeatedly. Sabatini smashes down with punches right to the bell, and Almeida has survived.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini

Round 2
Sabatini rushes out of his corner to tap gloves, and he immediately hunts for a single to make the Brazilian’s life miserable again. Almeida backs himself against the wall in defense, and Sabatini switches up to a body lock in pursuit of another trip. Sabatini drills a knee to the body and drops down low for a double, and he lets it go to snake his leg between Almeida’s. Sabatini successfully yanks Almeida to the floor, first bringing him to a knee and pushing him flat on his back. Sabatini slashes down with an elbow on the forehead to slice open a cut, and blood leaks down into Almeida’s eyes.
Sabatini transitions over to the side, man on a mission, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke while Almeida fails to clear his vision. The Philadelphia native locks it down and crushes with his shoulder and full body weight, and Almeida has no choice but to tap.
As Tognoni pulls them apart, Sabatini has just become the first fighter to ever finish the Brazilian featherweight, doing so in a spectacular and one-sided performance.

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Lucas Almeida R2 1:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini because he has a huge grappling advantage. He notes that Sabatini's chin is a concern after recent knockouts, but he has been recovering. Lucas Almeida has dangerous hands and good scramble skills, but Sabatini's takedowns and top control should be the difference. Angelo also considers a prop bet on Almeida inside the distance/decision no action.

inside the distance decision no action on Lucas Almeida (considering)
"the pick is going to be Pat though because he's got an incredible advantage on the ground in the grappling and that is wider than the Striking advantage that Lucas has"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by first-round knockout. He likes both fighters but sees Almeida as a live dog due to his power and volume. Brady questions Sabatini's durability, noting he was hurt by Jamall Emmers and Damon Jackson. Almeida has a 100% finish rate and hits very hard, as seen in his fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Brady thinks Sabatini needs to wrestle early and often, but Almeida's takedown defense looks solid and he is physically strong. If Almeida can keep the fight standing for even a few minutes, he likely gets the knockout.

"I'm gonna say Lucas Almeida goes out there and gets a first round knockout in this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody is hesitant on Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida has crushing power and improved cardio, and that Sabatini's chin is questionable. He notes that Sabatini's wrestling is good but not elite, and that he tends to stall rather than finish. Cody thinks Sabatini will likely get takedowns and control the fight, but it will be a butt-clencher because Almeida can shut the lights off at any time. He doesn't love the -200 price.

Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700 (sprinkle)
"I think I'm gonna end up picking him it's gonna be a butt clencher the whole time Paul"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Connor also picks Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida could KO him but trusting Sabatini's grappling. He notes that Sabatini is awkward on the feet but has shown the ability to recover and submit opponents after being hurt. Connor is less confident than he would like but sees Sabatini as the safer pick.

"I got to pick Sabatini too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida, believing if the fight stays standing, Almeida will knock Sabatini out. He notes Sabatini's low volume and chin issues, citing knockouts by Damon Jackson and Jamall Emmers. However, he expresses hesitation because Sabatini's wrestling could neutralize Almeida, leading to a frustrating loss. He considers it a coin flip but prefers the dog.

"if if almaid is able to keep it on the feed he's Gonna Knock sabatini Out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Sabatini is the best grappler Almeida has faced. He should get takedowns and rack up control time, possibly even a submission. However, there is concern about how Sabatini rebounds from his knockout loss to Damon Jackson. Almeida has power but has shown grappling deficiencies. Sabatini wins by decision.

"I'm gonna go Pat sabatini by decision not with a ton of confidence just because I want to see how he rebounds from a such a devastating knockout loss"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Paul is not laying -200 on Sabatini, calling him one-dimensional. He notes that Sabatini's takedowns are not always effective and that Almeida has power and durability. Paul thinks Almeida could be in big trouble if the fight stays on the feet, and he likes the plus money on Almeida. He also mentions a prop on Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700.

Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700 (sprinkle)
"there's no way I'm laying minus two on there I'm Pat seven do you need clear clear dogger pass for me he's just so one-dimensional"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Pat Sabatini, arguing Sabatini doesn't do much with takedowns and has been stuffed before. He notes Almeida's durability and finishing ability, referencing his comeback win over Mike Trizano. He believes Almeida can survive bad positions on the ground and land a big shot on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Lucas Almeida over Pat sabatina... Lucas al-made is going to beat pat sabatina"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Zane picks Sabatini despite concerns about his striking. He believes the grappling disparity is too wide and that Almeida takes too many risks standing, which will lead to Sabatini getting takedowns. Zane notes that Almeida has never faced a wrestler of Sabatini's caliber and that Sabatini can survive early trouble to win on the mat.

"I'm going to pick Pat Sabatini because I think that the grappling disparity is going to be too wide."
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
TKO (punches) R1 1:09 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-180), Jackson (+155)

Round 1
A pair of surging featherweights are on deck to provide what should be a scintillating clash of grappling styles. With 25 combined submissions between the two, any ground exchanges should be worth watching. Responsible for 15 of those tapouts/chokeouts is “The Leech” Jackson (21-4-1, 1 NC; 4-2-1, 1 NC UFC), while Renzo Gracie Philly rep Sabatini (17-3, 4-0 UFC) posts the other 10. This will be an emotional affair, as Jackson's brother passed away earlier this week. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to step in at a moment’s notice should nonsense materialize out of thin air, and there is no need of a glove touch as these two want to get after it. The first 30 seconds lead to nothing, and out of nowhere, Jackson fires off a front kick to the chin that stuns Sabatini. Sabatini lunges forward, and Jackson turns him about and throws him on his back. Jackson begins to pound on him with his fists, and Sabatini is in a bad way.
Jackson allows Sabatini to give up his back so that he can climb aboard and drop hammers. Sabatini shells up, flattened out on his stomach, and Jackson continues to bombard him with unanswered punches to the side of the head. The blows are fierce and furious, and Jackson does not slow down until Sabatini cries out and Peterson steps in to call a halt to the match.
Jackson climbs off his fallen foe, and he goes over to his corner and collapses to his knees and breaks down in tears. It is an emotional moment for Jackson and his family in the crowd, as he fights to honor his fallen brother.

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:09 via TKO (Submission to Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.

"pat is the pick uh he's got the better wrestling the better pure grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.

inside the distance
"i'm gonna take pat sabatini to win i'm gonna say he catches damage jackson i'm gonna say he um hurts him on the feet and and submits him here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).

"i'm sniffing this one as my first potential apple pie i'll just avoid sabatini if anything"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.

"I trust sabatini more to be the guy who hits that last takedown to get the judge's attention and and just seal it off on the judge's scorecards"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.

"my dude absolutely is past 17. i was actually surprised he was even a minus 200"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.

"Damon Jackson has way better of a chance than that this fight in my opinion should be closer to a pickum that's how I'm gonna go with the underdog here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.

"i'll lean towards the underdog in jackson with you um which you know historically will probably mean that uh that sabatini's gonna absolutely roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by submission in the third round. He notes Damon Jackson often wins by barely doing enough and has trouble with shorter opponents, as seen against Daniel Argueta. He believes Sabatini's jiu-jitsu and shorter stocky frame will cause problems, and that Sabatini is younger and closer to his prime. He expects Sabatini to get a submission win.

submission in the third round
"i'm gonna go with pat sabatini in this fight by submission in the third round"
WIN vs T.J. Laramie
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 36 of 63 57% 124 of 162 6 of 10 60% 0 0 7:59
T.J. Laramie 0 15 of 31 48% 22 of 39 1 of 4 25% 0 1 4:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 9 of 16 56% 25 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:21
T.J. Laramie 0 9 of 15 60% 15 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:53
2 Pat Sabatini 0 24 of 40 60% 71 of 94 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:57
T.J. Laramie 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:42
3 Pat Sabatini 0 3 of 7 42% 28 of 36 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:41
T.J. Laramie 0 6 of 14 42% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 36 of 63 57% 29 of 55 5 of 6 2 of 2 13 of 24 1 of 2 22 of 37
T.J. Laramie 15 of 31 48% 9 of 23 2 of 3 4 of 5 12 of 24 0 of 1 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 9 of 16 56% 4 of 10 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Laramie 9 of 15 60% 4 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 2
2 Pat Sabatini 24 of 40 60% 23 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 37
T.J. Laramie 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Pat Sabatini 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Laramie 6 of 14 42% 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
T.J. Laramie vs. Pat Sabatini

Round 1
Many UFC fighters come up through Dana White’s Contender Series these days, with the farm system churning year after year to pump prospects into the ranks. Sabatini (16-3, 3-0 UFC), who has won three fights since his 2021 debut on the roster, is not one of those fighters, as he came up the old-fashioned way by claiming belts on the regional scene – Cage Fury FC, to be precise. He will meet Laramie (12-4, 0-1 UFC), who was picked up from the 2020 season of DWCS, and is looking for his first UFC victory. The featherweights touch gloves in front of referee Herb Dean, and they both circle one another in the early going trying to find a striking range. They kick one another low, one after the next, and they do the same again. Sabatini shoots in low for a takedown, only to get stuffed with ease on the way in. Laramie is well-prepared for the second attempt, which follows soon after. Laramie turns him around in the fence, and when he does, Sabatini sets up a guillotine choke standing up. Sabatini goes for a trip takedown, and Laramie manages to scramble mid-air to put Sabatini on his back. Sabatini keeps an active guard, and he uses his right leg to wrap around the shoulder in a possible triangle or even omoplata setup. Laramie shucks it off, but he cannot keep Sabatini on his back, as the Pennsylvanian fights his way back up. Laramie kicks the body, and Sabatini kicks the inside leg. As soon as Sabatini sets his own leg down, he snatches up the Canadian’s leg and hits a single to take him down. “The Truth” springs back up, and he scores a trio of punches when Sabatini rumbles towards him. They both land strikes simultaneously, as they have been doing for much of the fight, and they clinch up with Sabatini pushed up the wall. Sabatini unloads with a brutal kick to the liver, and the toes stab into it in such a way that Laramie leans over in trouble. Sabatini chases after him and wings a high kick that slams into the side of the Canadian’s head. Instead of trying to finish the job on the feet, Sabatini jumps guard for a guillotine, and Laramie somehow manages to yank his head free. Briefly taking mount, Laramie settles for half guard to ride out the rest of the round and recover.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 2
Sabatini practically runs out of his corner to start off the second round, and he wings a pair of looping punches before shooting in low for a single. Laramie defends the takedown with a guillotine choke of his own, with it threatening just enough to make Sabatini think about it. The two stand back up, and Laramie presses him up against the wall. Sabatini gets turned around, and he changes levels for another takedown, only for Laramie to rebuff him as they both drop to their knees. Sabatini goes after a double, and Sabatini pummels, turns the corner in search of a single, and lifts Laramie’s leg up in the air high enough to scoop Laramie off the ground. Laramie hits the ground on his backside, and Sabatini is already circled around to the back in pursuit of a choke. Looping his legs beneath Laramie’s, Sabatini holds Laramie down and works him on the side of the head with punches. The punches keep coming from the Pennsylvanian until Laramie wrenches his leg out, but Sabatini does not let him free completely and still bullies him with punches. Laramie rolls to his back, but Sabatini keeps him in his preferred position with a partial hook in. A few more punches fluster Laramie enough to turn, which lets Sabatini pursue a choke. Sabatini winds up on power punches from on top, pounding into the side of the Canadian’s head. Laramie is surviving but slowly fading as the punishment begins to add up. Sabatini has his foe on one knee, having taken his back with one hook in, and he makes Laramie’s life miserable with effective ground-and-pound. Laramie attempts to turn out, but Sabatini is riding him like a horse, while busting him up on both sides. No choke presents itself, so Sabatini elects to sit on his back and land irritating punches right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini

Round 3
The featherweights touch gloves to start off the last round, and Laramie is fired up and hellbent for leather. Sabatini wings a right hand at him, and it bounces off the dome as he distracts his man and shoots for a takedown. Laramie defends it and pushes him back to the wall, but Sabatini is able to break free and swing a high kick. When the kick misses, Sabatini spins with a back fist, and that too misses the mark. The momentum from the Pennsylvania native allows him to press forward to a takedown that simply bowls Laramie over. Laramie defends off his back with a leglock, and he keeps Sabatini at bay when that does not succeed with a pushing upkick. Sabatini jumps down on top, and he pushes the Canadian over to take half guard. Staying busy on top with punches and an arm-triangle choke setup, Sabatini is not in danger of Dean standing them up. Instead, Laramie takes it upon himself to get up, as he explodes up to his feet so that he is not losing control time. Getting up by wall-walking, Sabatini trips him back out shortly after he stands, and he gets back to that partial back-take position where he rode out much of the second round. Sabatini winds up with several knees to the thigh when he pulls his hook free, as Laramie tries to stand. A trip from Sabatini drops “The Truth” back down on his hands and knees, and Sabatini snakes a hook in so that he can get back to his smothering top control with surprisingly effective punches. Laramie looks to push through to get up, only for Sabatini to take his back and cinch up Laramie’s arm with his legs. Laramie twists with all his might to put Sabatini on his back, and Sabatini defends with a shoulder lock before going after a leg. The submission attempts from his back keep coming right until the bitter end, when the final bell rings and the fight comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. T.J. Laramie via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, continuing to ride the Sabatini train. He praises Sabatini's outstanding grappling and decent striking, noting his ability to control range and set up takedowns. He acknowledges that T.J. Laramie is dangerous with power and submissions, but believes Sabatini's technical striking will avoid big shots. He thinks the odds are a bit wide but still picks Sabatini.

"i will continue to ride the pat sabatini train because his grappling is outstanding and i think his striking is technical enough to avoid the big shots from laramie"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win by first-round submission. He highlights Sabatini's relentless wrestling and BJJ black belt, predicting he will take Laramie down and submit him early. He acknowledges Laramie has better striking but believes the grappling gap is huge. He expects Sabatini to take Laramie's back and tap him out in the first round.

win by submission, round 1
"give me sabatini first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and physicality. He notes Laramie's size disadvantage and thinks Sabatini will impose his grappling. He acknowledges Laramie's potential but believes Sabatini's game plan is clear.

"i think past 17 you should get the victory so i don't agree with the price tag but not enough for me to pull the trigger on the canadian"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, citing his ability to overcome adversity (as seen against Jamal Emmons), his submission skills, and his pace-setting wrestling. He notes Laramie is too small for featherweight (listed 5'6" but likely 5'4") and has a 66-inch reach, making him undersized. Levi expects Laramie to be game but believes Sabatini's ceiling is higher and he should win, though the fight might be closer than the line suggests.

Mentions possible early sub or grind fest; says 'the pick is pat sabatini'
"I still got to go with pat sabatini because I think the ceiling is higher on a kid like that."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Paul picks Sabatini, noting his size and grappling advantage. He thinks Sabatini will take Laramie down and control him, despite Laramie's striking edge. He mentions he already bet Sabatini at -350 as part of a parlay.

"i tried to beat some of the lime movement early i took pat sabatini he was minus 350 at the time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by first-round submission. He notes Sabatini's grappling expertise and win streak, and criticizes T.J. Laramie's physique and debut performance. He expects Sabatini to submit Laramie easily, possibly by guillotine or other submission.

first round submission
"pat sabatini gets this one done by first round sub"
Tucker Lutz - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 36 of 109 33% 41 of 115 3 of 9 33% 0 0 6:19
Tucker Lutz 0 64 of 108 59% 74 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 12 of 27 44% 13 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:56
Tucker Lutz 0 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 21 of 64 32% 22 of 65 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 49 57% 28 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Melsik Baghdasaryan 0 3 of 18 16% 6 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:48
Tucker Lutz 0 25 of 40 62% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melsik Baghdasaryan 36 of 109 33% 14 of 71 16 of 28 6 of 10 34 of 105 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 64 of 108 59% 32 of 66 30 of 40 2 of 2 50 of 88 11 of 16 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melsik Baghdasaryan 12 of 27 44% 4 of 18 5 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 11 of 19 57% 4 of 9 6 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Melsik Baghdasaryan 21 of 64 32% 10 of 40 8 of 19 3 of 5 20 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 28 of 49 57% 16 of 34 11 of 14 1 of 1 26 of 46 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Melsik Baghdasaryan 3 of 18 16% 0 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 15 1 of 3 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 25 of 40 62% 12 of 23 13 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 25 10 of 14 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Tucker Lutz
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Baghdasaryan (-165), Lutz (+140)

Round 1
The prelims come to a close with the first combatant of the night sporting a winning record inside the Octagon. Baghdasaryan (7-2, 2-1 UFC) did get choked out back in February, so he hopes to get back in the win column at the expense of the skidding Lutz (12-3, 1-2 UFC). In this featherweight contest of “The Gun” vs. “Top Gun,” respectively, expect a potential firefight. Referee Jacob Montalvo dons his bulletproof armor, and the fighters touch ‘em up before pulling the trigger. Baghdasaryan reaches out with a body kick to introduce himself, and he kicks the lead leg to follow. Lutz responds with two leg kicks, and he swats away a reverse crescent kick and has his guard up to block a subsequent high kick. Baghdasaryan’s shin bounces right off Lutz’ chin, and Lutz tanks it and kicks Baghdasaryan in the ribs twice. They both paw at one another with straight right hands, and Lutz is ripping kicks to the body while Baghdasaryan is aiming them high. Lutz strings three punches together that clatter off the forehead, and he chambers and looses another kick to the side. Baghdasaryan pays him back with one, leading Lutz to offer up a takedown attempt. “Top Gun” is able to complete the takedown he seeks, sucking Baghdasaryan’s legs out beneath him and hooking his own legs around Baghdasaryan’s. This keeps Baghdasaryan on his seat without a way to get up, and try as he might, Baghdasaryan cannot stand. Lutz is primarily focused on position over any other offense, as Baghdasaryan is leaned with his back to the cage. Baghdasaryan slowly scoots his leg free from the triangle that kept him stuck, and he stands up. Lutz is quick to drag him right back down, and he ignores an elbow that bounces off the side of the head. Baghdasaryan explodes to his knees, but Lutz yanks him back out again. Baghdasaryan returns to his feet while Lutz is clinging to him, and Lutz looks to trip him out from behind. Lutz lifts Baghdasaryan up, and Baghdasaryan grabs the fence a few times to prevent him from getting grounded. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lutz
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Lutz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lutz

Round 2
The fighters either touch gloves or stick out alternating jabs at the same time to start off the round, and they get going with kicks one after the other. Lutz slaps a kick to the upper thigh, and he springs out of the way from a jab to the body from his opponent. Baghdasaryan splits the lowered guard with a front kick on the belly, and he drills Lutz in the face with a reverse crescent kick. In an exchange, Baghdasaryan connects with a few punches including a stiff uppercut, hurting Lutz and sending him backpedaling. This puts the Baghdasaryan in the driver’s seat, who leaps in the air and kicks at Lutz like Josh Thomson against Nate Diaz. Lutz defends from the blow and the subsequent strikes enough to gather his wits, and he starts to fire back with bad intentions. Lutz slams his shin to the belly a few times, and he eats two jabs that snap his head back. Baghdasaryan wings a left hand that bounces off the cup, and it pounds square into Lutz’ cup. Lutz doubles over and clutches his groin, and Baghdasaryan does not pause as he kicks Lutz upside the head before Montalvo can reach him. Lutz takes the time he needs to recover, and he is ready to re-engage in a brawl. Catching Baghdasaryan with a right hand and a knee, Lutz gets backed away with a front kick. Lutz spams leg kicks, and he is driven back with a solid one-two. Lutz throws a naked body kick, and Baghdasaryan counters him and shuts down a takedown attempt from the surging Lutz. Baghdasaryan lands one body kick, and Lutz reaches him with two. Both men trade hands, and the Glendale Fighting Club fighter’s head movement is minimal as he gets tagged by Lutz. Baghdasaryan has the power to surprise Lutz, which defends him from Lutz surges. Baghdasaryan rifles off a piston-like jab that Lutz takes right on the nose to knock his head back, forcing Lutz into takedown mode. Lutz grabs hold of his foe and deposits Baghdasaryan to the floor with 30 seconds left in the round. Lutz hangs on tight, riding out the remainder of the round in this position without doing anything else with it but catching his breath.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan

Round 3
The featherweights touch ‘em up to start off the last round, and Lutz races forward throwing leather. Baghdasaryan shoves him back, and two of his fingers jab deep into Lutz’ eye socket. Lutz yelps in pain as he backs away, and Montalvo calls time. Lutz states the he is good to go within a minute, answering the doctor that he can see just fine. Montalvo warns Baghdasaryan sternly for fouls, and the two restart after 75 seconds away. Lutz springs right into action, and Baghdasaryan does just the same, knocking Lutz back with a few punches. Lutz responds with a loud body kick, and he tags Baghdasaryan with a left hand. Baghdasaryan responds with an axe kick that misses the mark by a foot, and Lutz steps in with a right hand that lands on the chin. Baghdasaryan strings three punches together to rock Lutz, and Lutz drops to his knees to hunt for a takedown. Lutz clasps his hands and lowers Baghdasaryan to his knee, and Baghdasaryan stays busy with elbows to the side. Lutz sells out for a single, and he trips Baghdasaryan down and takes his back even as Baghdasaryan grabs the fence repeatedly. Montalvo even slaps Baghdasaryan’s hands out of the fence, and Lutz snakes his right arm around the chest as he gets one hook in. Baghdasaryan wriggles and through sheer force of will, he works out of the position and stands up. In a close clinch, Baghdasaryan slams his knees on the midsection, and Lutz winces in pain – possibly because one glanced off his cup during the exchange. Baghdasaryan keeps spamming knees even when he is turned around against the wire, and Lutz searches for a single-leg takedown. Baghdasaryan elbows Lutz on the side of the head and stifles Lutz from getting it, and he delivers a few more knees to the body for good measure. With 25 seconds to spare, Baghdasaryan pushes off and spins with a back kick to the body. Baghdasaryan races after his opponent, belting Lutz in the face with a left hand. The two tie back up, with Baghdasaryan initiating the clinch so that he can open up with knees and elbows up close. Lutz breaks off and evades a spin kick to his midsection, and Baghdasaryan steps in with a knee. Lutz lands a right hand over the top, and the horn sounds to end this 15-minute engagement.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan (29-28 Baghdasaryan)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan (29-28 Baghdasaryan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baghdasaryan (29-28 Baghdasaryan)

The Official Result
Melsik Baghdasaryan def. Tucker Lutz via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Angelo picks Tucker Lutz as the underdog, citing a wider wrestling and grappling skill gap than the striking gap. He believes Tucker can keep a tight guard, come forward, and look to wrestle, needing a perfect 15-minute fight to avoid getting knocked out. He notes that Melsik is dangerous late, having gotten a third-round KO after giving up takedowns, so Tucker must be cautious. Angelo is surprised Melsik is a 2-to-1 favorite and thinks the fight could be a boring wrestling match.

"the pick's gonna be Tucker here as the underdog right off the rip but he's gonna need to fight a perfect fight for 15 minutes and avoid getting knocked out"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as a slight underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Baghdasaryan is the better striker with power, but Lutz has solid wrestling and cardio. He expects Lutz to get takedowns and control time, while Baghdasaryan may have bigger moments on the feet. He thinks it goes to a close decision and sides with the dog, though he missed the better plus money earlier.

"give me Tucker Lutz to slightly Edge it out although I'm a big fan of Mel sakir I think stylistically uh Striker versus wrestler I mean this one could be close to give me Tucker Lutz for the upset in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody reluctantly picks Lutz as an underdog, citing his wrestling advantage if he uses it. He notes Baghdasaryan is a dangerous striker but has poor takedown defense, as seen in the Culibao fight. He acknowledges Lutz has looked bad recently, getting chin-checked by Pineda, but thinks the plus money is worth a shot. He has zero confidence but sees an angle.

"probably a bad play I have zero confidence in Tucker Lutz but I feel like there's an angle there that he can now grapple and use some wrestling so again zero confidence out of me but I gotta take some …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

James is leaning towards Tucker Lutz as an underdog. He notes that Melsik Baghdasaryan has grappling deficiencies and was submitted quickly in his last fight. He questions whether Lutz has the offensive wrestling and cardio to exploit those weaknesses, but thinks the line may offer value on the dog side. He plans to watch tape to confirm.

"I honestly would be looking at a taco side a lot more than laying -220 over melson baghdasarian"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The host expects a pissed-off Baghdasaryan to take out his aggression on Lutz, using his combinations and power to stifle Lutz. He notes Lutz has broken before and thinks Baghdasaryan can win by decision, though he's not certain about a finish.

"give me talk to saurian feeling pretty good about him as well and I think he wins this fight low confidence I'm going to say by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Paul leans toward Baghdasaryan, citing his striking advantage and Lutz's poor striking defense. He notes the market moved from -200 to -160, making it less valuable. He thinks Baghdasaryan can exploit Lutz's defensive flaws and land big shots. He is not convinced in Lutz's wrestling ability and sees this as a stay-away fight at current odds.

"I'll lean towards Mel sick because I'm just not convinced in Tucker Lutz's wrestling ability"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

The MMA Guru picks Melsik Baghdasaryan over Tucker Lutz, citing Baghdasaryan's superior striking skill and fluidity compared to Lutz's awkward, rigid style. He notes Lutz has lost two in a row and questions his ability to outgrapple Baghdasaryan, who hasn't been exposed on the ground aside from a submission loss to Joshua Culibao after winning the fight. He trusts Baghdasaryan's prior performances, including a 3-0 streak and a Contender Series win, and predicts a decision victory.

"I've got to go with meltic bagdasarian here over tuckalatz he just seems the more talented of the two of them"
LOSS vs Daniel Pineda
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:50 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Pineda 1 24 of 45 53% 41 of 66 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:20
Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 78 35% 33 of 84 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Pineda 1 17 of 32 53% 28 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:50
Tucker Lutz 0 24 of 65 36% 29 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
2 Daniel Pineda 0 7 of 13 53% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:30
Tucker Lutz 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Pineda 24 of 45 53% 10 of 24 4 of 10 10 of 11 22 of 41 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 28 of 78 35% 17 of 61 8 of 11 3 of 6 22 of 71 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Pineda 17 of 32 53% 4 of 14 4 of 9 9 of 9 16 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 24 of 65 36% 15 of 50 7 of 10 2 of 5 18 of 58 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Daniel Pineda 7 of 13 53% 6 of 10 0 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Angelo picks Lutz, expecting him to weather Pineda's early storm and then take over with wrestling. He notes that Pineda is feast-or-famine with a 100% finish rate but fades quickly. He thinks Lutz is powerful and should get takedowns and a finish. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go the distance' rather than a moneyline.

Fight doesn't go the distance (recommended parlay piece)
"Tucker Lutz should win this fight he should be able to get the wrestling going."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz by third-round TKO, viewing it as a fade on Daniel Pineda. He notes Pineda's age (37), history of PED use, and tendency to gas out after the first round. Brady believes Lutz's grinding style and pace will wear down Pineda, who has never won a 15-minute fight. He expects Lutz to survive the early danger and finish Pineda late.

Lutz by TKO in round 3
"I'm going to say Lutz wins this fight I'll say like third round TKO just due to Pineda having nothing left in the tank"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody picks Lutz confidently, calling Pineda a one-round fighter with poor cardio and a history of fading. He notes Pineda is 37, off a two-year layoff, and was previously caught for steroids. He believes Lutz's takedown defense and volume striking will neutralize Pineda's early grappling threat, and that Lutz will break Pineda down over three rounds.

Lutz wins by decision; live bet Lutz after first round
"We're going with Tucker Lutz this weekend I think that he gonna get the job done against Pineda"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Connor leans toward Tucker Lutz but expresses hesitation, noting that Lutz hasn't faced a fighter as violent and unpredictable as Daniel Pineda. He points out that Pineda has crushed young prospects before and that Lutz's recent UFC wins have been decisions against less dangerous opponents. Connor is curious to see how Lutz handles Pineda's calf kicks and chaotic pressure, and he wouldn't be super confident in Lutz passing this test just yet.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I wouldn't be super duper confident in him, in him passing it just yet."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Jacob picks Lutz but is not confident, echoing that Lutz should win but the fight is not worth betting. He notes that Pineda is tough and wild, and that Lutz was out-grappled by Sabatini, but that is not a concern. He says the breakdowns are repetitive because many favorites on this card are similar.

"Tucker Lutz yes he should win he should be tough enough again as we mentioned the time before nothing jumps out on the film."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The host leans with the younger, faster, more explosive Tucker Lutz, expecting him to come back with vengeance after his first UFC loss. He thinks Lutz's combination striking, speed, and explosiveness will find Pineda's chin and put him away via ground and pound. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as Pineda's fights almost always finish inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to lean with a younger faster more explosive Tucker Lutz in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The Guru picks Lutz, noting Pineda's gas tank issues and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Lutz's durability and cardio will allow him to win the last two rounds via decision, despite a tough first round.

"I'm gonna go with Tucker Lutz... I can actually see him winning this one by 29-28 unanimous decision based on the last two rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Zane picks Tucker Lutz because he sees Lutz as a solid, reliable fighter who is difficult to finish and has a safe, counter-punching style that should outlast Daniel Pineda's wild aggression. He notes that Pineda is prone to self-destructing and fading as the fight goes on, while Lutz has the durability and technical boxing to stay out of harm's way and accumulate points. Zane also mentions that Lutz's style is similar to Cody Stamann's, which has proven effective against aggressive but less technical opponents.

Odds: Lutz opened at -225, currently -274; Pineda opened at +190, currently +216. Zane thinks the odds are too wide, saying 'I don't really think the odds should be too, too wide for this.'
"That is the reason really that I'm picking Lutz. I just solid, reliable."
LOSS vs Pat Sabatini
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 16 of 24 66% 111 of 132 5 of 11 45% 3 1 10:55
Tucker Lutz 0 17 of 35 48% 36 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 6 of 11 54% 45 of 59 2 of 6 33% 1 0 3:35
Tucker Lutz 0 8 of 11 72% 9 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
2 Pat Sabatini 0 3 of 3 100% 56 of 60 1 of 1 100% 2 1 4:40
Tucker Lutz 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 10 70% 10 of 13 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:40
Tucker Lutz 0 7 of 18 38% 25 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 16 of 24 66% 9 of 17 4 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 20 2 of 2 2 of 2
Tucker Lutz 17 of 35 48% 5 of 21 9 of 11 3 of 3 11 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 8 of 11 72% 3 of 6 3 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tucker Lutz 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Pat Sabatini 7 of 10 70% 4 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 7 of 18 38% 1 of 10 6 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tucker Lutz vs. Pat Sabatini

Round 1
The preliminary headliner is the first match of the day between two competitors with UFC records over .500, and it comes at 145 pounds between proud Pennsylvanian Sabatini (15-3, 2-0 UFC) and Maryland-based rival “Top Gun” Lutz (12-1, 1-0 UFC). If maverick referee Mark Smith is not at the top of his game, he may find himself on a one-way trip to the danger zone during this potentially thrilling dogfight. The fighters are fueled up and touch gloves to launch the proceedings. Lutz walks forward, and he blocks a high kick so that he can kick low. The featherweights sling kicks at the same time, and Sabatini chomps down on his gumshield to swing looping hooks at his opponent. Sabatini lands a left hand, and Lutz is there to tag him with three punches. Sabatini punches his way into a level change, and Lutz counters him and hops back into the wall to keep his balance as Sabatini pursues a takedown. Lutz staves off the initial attempt, turns Sabatini into the wall, and then is forced to fight off a subsequent try. Sabatini is able to trip Lutz’ leg out beneath him but he cannot keep him there, until he finally pulls Lutz down to the mat. Lutz does not have any interest in playing on the ground here, and he walks his way up the wall until Sabatini lifts both of his legs up and drags him back out. Lutz still manages to get up, only to succumb to a mat return from a trip. Sabatini takes Lutz’ back in the process, with left hands that land as he flirts with a rear-naked choke setup. The punches continue to connect for the Philadelphia native, until Lutz turns over and falls into the choke. The submission is not under the neck, as Sabatini squeezes while Lutz’ face turns pink. Lutz toughs it out long enough for Sabatini to abandon that choke angle, and he is warned for grabbing Sabatini’s glove. Sabatini secures the body triangle, all while Lutz ducks his chin down so that the arm cannot snake on his throat. Sabatini softens him up with right hands, punching the side of Lutz’ head right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to begin the second frame, and Lutz comes out on the offensive. He lands a few punches, and when he tries to throw a kick, Sabatini grabs it and nails a clean double-leg takedown. Sabatini easily steps over to half guard, and Lutz hangs on to him to force a possible standup. Sabatini breaks the grip so that he can land punches and grind elbows, and he slides his knee over to take three-quarter mount. Lutz turns to his side to free himself, and when he does, Sabatini captures side control. Sabatini begins to pound on Lutz with short left hands, and as he does, Lutz turns the tables and gets to his knees. Sabatini takes advantage of this to jump guard for a guillotine choke, and he improves the choke into a mounted guillotine. Lutz fights off the choke but is still mounted, so he turns over to surrender his back again. Sabatini is happy to take it, where he hooks in a body triangle as he starts to fish for rear-naked chokes again. Lutz is able to work his way towards the wall, so that he can keep the cage between them and not allow Sabatini to get leverage. Sabatini still tries to get the choke, and Lutz stays smart enough to protect his neck, even when his face turns color. Sabatini cannot quite keep the grasp to tighten up a choke, as Lutz bucks and even sits up for a moment. Sabatini drags him back down, and he remains in dominant back control until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini

Round 3
They clap hands to start off the last round, and Sabatini backs away to throw a body kick. Lutz crashes forward to throw hands, with a left hook and a right to follow. Sabatini eats a few punches so that he can shoot in for a single, and Lutz keeps his foot in the air and sets it down against the fence. Sabatini tries to go for an inside trip that lifts Lutz’ leg up so that he can turn him around and slam him down, but Lutz sees this coming and is able to stay up. As they continue in this position, Lutz turns him around and lands his own takedown. Sabatini stands right up without a care in the world, and he attacks a single. The second attempt of the Philadelphian gets Lutz down to the floor, and Lutz is quick to stand to a knee and then back up. The mat return from Sabatini comes, and he successfully grounds Lutz with his backside on the fence. Dean tells them to work as soon as it hits the ground, and Sabatini obliges by grabbing hold of Lutz’ leg on the other side to take an advantageous posture. Lutz gets to his seat and stands, and they both try to toss the other and end up with their elbows hooked as they are both on their knees. Lutz gets up and lands a few knees up close, only for Sabatini to get off a one-two in response. Lutz begins to walk Sabatini down, looking for some strike that can win him the fight after losing practically every minute of the fight to this point. Sabatini ignores a strike coming his way so that he can tie Lutz up, and he instantly clings to Lutz like Saran wrap. Sabatini looks for trips from both legs, constantly frustrating Lutz with attempts and setups without letting Lutz do anything of his own. They separate for a second, until Sabatini darts in for a double. Lutz stands him up and punches him in the side a few times. The fight ends after they break from a clinch, with Lutz giving chase but not catching his foe.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-27 Sabatini)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Tucker Lutz via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, calling him an absolute dog with incredible grappling. He notes Tucker Lutz's striking is overrated and he has defensive holes, getting hit more than he lands despite being on top. He expects Sabatini to win by submission or decision, but does not place a bet due to tricky odds. He likes Sabatini's DraftKings price at 8700.

DraftKings price 8700; monkey knife fight less/less; mentions possibility of Sabatini inside distance / decision no action but too expensive
"i'm going with pat sabatini"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as an underdog at +120. He believes Lutz has the striking and volume advantage and that his takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing. He notes that Pat Sabatini's striking is a liability and that Lutz can outpoint him for three rounds. He warns that if the fight goes to the mat, Sabatini is dangerous, but he trusts Lutz to fight smart and keep it on the feet.

win by decision
"I'm actually going to take the dog here in tucker lutz ... give me uh tucker lutz to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody picks the underdog Tucker Lutz. He argues that Sabatini's grappling is excellent but his gas tank is questionable, as he gassed in the third round against Tristan Connolly. He notes that Sabatini's win over Jamal Emers was due to a mistake by Emers. Lutz is well-rounded with decent wrestling defense and technical boxing. Cody believes Lutz will sprawl and brawl, out-strike Sabatini, and win a close decision. He likes the plus money on a competitive fight.

"go take the dog shot here and go with uh tucker lutz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Daniel Levi leans toward Tucker Lutz as the underdog, but admits it's a tough fight to pick. He respects both fighters' skills, calling it a chess match. He notes that Lutz has good volume and is improving each fight, while Sabatini is crafty with a high fight IQ. Levi expects Lutz to close the distance and land harder shots down the stretch, but is not confident.

"i will take the dog tucker lutz but man i expect this to be like i said a chess match of thinking man's fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Lock likes Lutz as the better striker with a high school wrestling background to defend takedowns. He thinks Lutz will keep the fight standing and pick Sabatini apart with combinations. He notes Sabatini's striking is flashy but not effective, and that Lutz has the tools to avoid Sabatini's submission game. Lock took Lutz at +110 and likes the decision prop.

Tucker Lutz by decision +215, Tucker Lutz round 3 +2200
"I got one unit on him at plus 110. I do think that he's the better striker of the two here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He says he will consider Lutz but is waiting for weigh-ins. He does not express a strong opinion either way.

"i'll consider lutz but i'm gonna wait for weigh-ins on that one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The MMA Guru picks Tucker Lutz as an underdog over Pat Sabatini. He notes that Sabatini was rocked by Jamal Emmers and has holes in his chin and range. He highlights Lutz's solid fundamentals, takedown defense, volume, and cardio. He expects Lutz to win by split decision (29-28), doing more damage in the second and third rounds.

"i'm going with an underdog again with tucker lutz here"
WIN vs Kevin Aguilar
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tucker Lutz 0 81 of 144 56% 132 of 196 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:52
Kevin Aguilar 0 99 of 177 55% 114 of 192 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tucker Lutz 0 25 of 41 60% 50 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 33 of 53 62% 43 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:19
2 Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 50 56% 37 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Kevin Aguilar 0 34 of 59 57% 35 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
3 Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 53 52% 45 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Kevin Aguilar 0 32 of 65 49% 36 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tucker Lutz 81 of 144 56% 45 of 98 31 of 39 5 of 7 72 of 135 9 of 9 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 99 of 177 55% 59 of 131 21 of 26 19 of 20 91 of 167 5 of 6 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tucker Lutz 25 of 41 60% 10 of 24 13 of 15 2 of 2 24 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 33 of 53 62% 17 of 33 10 of 14 6 of 6 29 of 49 2 of 2 2 of 2
2 Tucker Lutz 28 of 50 56% 16 of 33 10 of 13 2 of 4 23 of 45 5 of 5 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 34 of 59 57% 21 of 45 6 of 6 7 of 8 32 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Tucker Lutz 28 of 53 52% 19 of 41 8 of 11 1 of 1 25 of 50 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 32 of 65 49% 21 of 53 5 of 6 6 of 6 30 of 61 1 of 2 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Aguilar

Aguilar is the better fighter overall with phenomenal takedown defense (87%) and has fought tougher competition. Lutz is very hittable with poor striking defense. However, Aguilar's low volume is a concern; he got outlanded in recent fights. I think Aguilar lands the harder shots and is live for a knockout, but I'm not betting on him.

by KO
"I'm going to take kevin aguilera to win by ko but i really don't want to put my money on this guy so i'm going to pass from a vetting perspective"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody picks Lutz, emphasizing Aguilar's chin issues. He notes that Aguilar has been knocked out by lesser strikers and Lutz has good durability. Cody believes Lutz's wrestling and ability to take a punch will allow him to win a decision or late finish.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i am going to go lots um"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Aguilar

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Aguilar, hoping he looks better than his last fight. He notes that Aguilar's previous loss to Charles Rosa was disappointing, but if he can improve even 1%, he can win. Levi acknowledges that Tucker Lutz is a workman with good kicks, but thinks Aguilar has the experience edge. He calls it a pick'em and a dog-or-pass situation.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna go with kevin because i'm hoping if he can just look one percent better"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The host leans toward Lutz, citing his versatility on the feet and wrestling background. He notes Aguilar marches forward in a straight line and throws big shots but lacks diversity. He thinks Lutz moves better, mixes up kicks, and has a strong lead kick. However, he acknowledges it could be a close stand-up fight and is not ultra confident, predicting a decision win for Lutz.

Lutz by decision
"i'll ultimately be going with tucker lutz to win this five-year decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Paul picks Lutz, noting that Aguilar has a weak chin and has been knocked out recently. He believes Lutz's durability and wrestling will be key. Paul expects Lutz to take shots and keep coming, while Aguilar may falter if hit. He sees this as a fun fight that could go to decision.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (43.5 for Lutz, 33.5 for Aguilar).
"i am going to go lots um"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The MMA Guru picks Tucker Lutz over Kevin Aguilar, citing Aguilar's recent decline and poor performances, including a loss to Charles Rosa. He believes Aguilar has taken too much damage and no longer takes shots well. He sees Lutz as a rising contender with momentum and predicts a close unanimous decision 29-28.

"i'm going with tucker lutz here"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, calling him an absolute dog with incredible grappling. He notes Tucker Lutz's striking is overrated and he has defensive holes, getting hit more than he lands despite being on top. He expects Sabatini to win by submission or decision, but does not place a bet due to tricky odds. He likes Sabatini's DraftKings price at 8700.

DraftKings price 8700; monkey knife fight less/less; mentions possibility of Sabatini inside distance / decision no action but too expensive
"i'm going with pat sabatini"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as an underdog at +120. He believes Lutz has the striking and volume advantage and that his takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing. He notes that Pat Sabatini's striking is a liability and that Lutz can outpoint him for three rounds. He warns that if the fight goes to the mat, Sabatini is dangerous, but he trusts Lutz to fight smart and keep it on the feet.

win by decision
"I'm actually going to take the dog here in tucker lutz ... give me uh tucker lutz to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody picks the underdog Tucker Lutz. He argues that Sabatini's grappling is excellent but his gas tank is questionable, as he gassed in the third round against Tristan Connolly. He notes that Sabatini's win over Jamal Emers was due to a mistake by Emers. Lutz is well-rounded with decent wrestling defense and technical boxing. Cody believes Lutz will sprawl and brawl, out-strike Sabatini, and win a close decision. He likes the plus money on a competitive fight.

"go take the dog shot here and go with uh tucker lutz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Daniel Levi leans toward Tucker Lutz as the underdog, but admits it's a tough fight to pick. He respects both fighters' skills, calling it a chess match. He notes that Lutz has good volume and is improving each fight, while Sabatini is crafty with a high fight IQ. Levi expects Lutz to close the distance and land harder shots down the stretch, but is not confident.

"i will take the dog tucker lutz but man i expect this to be like i said a chess match of thinking man's fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Lock likes Lutz as the better striker with a high school wrestling background to defend takedowns. He thinks Lutz will keep the fight standing and pick Sabatini apart with combinations. He notes Sabatini's striking is flashy but not effective, and that Lutz has the tools to avoid Sabatini's submission game. Lock took Lutz at +110 and likes the decision prop.

Tucker Lutz by decision +215, Tucker Lutz round 3 +2200
"I got one unit on him at plus 110. I do think that he's the better striker of the two here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He says he will consider Lutz but is waiting for weigh-ins. He does not express a strong opinion either way.

"i'll consider lutz but i'm gonna wait for weigh-ins on that one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The MMA Guru picks Tucker Lutz as an underdog over Pat Sabatini. He notes that Sabatini was rocked by Jamal Emmers and has holes in his chin and range. He highlights Lutz's solid fundamentals, takedown defense, volume, and cardio. He expects Lutz to win by split decision (29-28), doing more damage in the second and third rounds.

"i'm going with an underdog again with tucker lutz here"