vs
+275 -305
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 10"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 6' 0"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chris Curtis
5.52 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.75 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Phil Hawes
5.33 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
3.72 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.11 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Chris Curtis
Moneyline
BetMGM +275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +700
Phil Hawes
Moneyline
BetRivers -305
KO/TKO
FanDuel +110
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetWay +225
Chris Curtis - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 12 of 31 38% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 20 of 28 71% 83 of 102 19 of 24 79% 0 0 12:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 2 of 10 20% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 16 of 21 76% 49 of 65 7 of 8 87% 0 0 4:02
2 Chris Curtis 0 6 of 13 46% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 3 66% 25 of 26 7 of 9 77% 0 0 4:13
3 Chris Curtis 0 4 of 8 50% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 12 of 31 38% 6 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 20 of 28 71% 13 of 18 3 of 4 4 of 6 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 2 of 10 20% 1 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 16 of 21 76% 13 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 16
2 Chris Curtis 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Chris Curtis 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo confidently picks Myktybek Orolbai, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will be too much for Chris Curtis. He notes that Curtis had the highest takedown defense in middleweight but was taken down easily by Brendan Allen, and expects Orolbai to do the same. He thinks Orolbai will cruise to a decision win.

"I don't see Chris Curtis winning this fight. ... Motorbec's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision. He is concerned about Chris Curtis's age (38), layoff, and recent close fight with Max Griffin. He believes Orolbai is younger, hits harder, has wrestling upside, and is durable. He thinks Curtis's takedown defense, while good, hasn't been tested by wrestlers like Orolbai.

"I'm definitely going to My Titty Back here. I'm going to take My Titty Back to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody leans Curtis as a dog, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Orolbai's clunky technique and hittability. He thinks Curtis can outpoint him or catch him, but acknowledges Curtis is 39 and declining.

"I think I'm going to take a small little shot down the action man for old time sake."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get distracted in fights, especially as he ages. He notes that Orolbai's relentless pressure could frustrate Curtis, leading to him arguing with the ref instead of fighting. He also mentions that Curtis has a history of finding ways to lose.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I think he is very clearly losing focus as he gets older and finding little distractions to get mad about in fights. ... And when a fighter gets to that point, unless they're in a really generous matchup, I just …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

James picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision, citing his volume, grappling upside, and the fact that Curtis often underperforms. He notes Curtis is a better striker but may be outworked and taken down. He calls it a strange fight and a potential stayaway for betting.

"I'm going to pick Oro to win the fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The host picks Orolbai to win by decision but is hesitant due to the high price. He expects Orolbai's aggression and output to overwhelm Curtis, but acknowledges Curtis is the better striker and could land a knockout. He notes that Orolbai's grappling may not be as effective against Curtis's defensive grappling, so the fight likely stays standing where Orolbai's pressure could edge him rounds. He suggests a hedge on Curtis by KO in round 3.

Curtis round 3 KO hedge
"I think Oro still gets the win here. I think he wins by decision. But I would think twice about this level of chalk against a veteran like Chris Curtis."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes Curtis' age and recent split decisions. He thinks Orolbai can bully Curtis and get a finish or decision.

"Oro by a minus 285 favorite to come back on. Your boy the action man plus 245."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his lightweight-level skills and toughness. He notes that Curtis struggled against Jack Hermansson, who Orolbai destroyed, and that Curtis's move to welterweight may not help. He predicts a TKO win for Orolbai.

Prediction: TKO
"I think Myktybek Orolbai is going to handle Chris Curtis... by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite being burned by him before. He believes Orolbai's unhampered aggression and lack of management tools will play into Curtis's counterpunching style. He notes Curtis's defensive wrestling and ability to catch Orolbai coming in, but acknowledges Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get frustrated.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I'll, I'll take Chris Curtis here. I just think a Ralby's unhampered aggression and complete lack of like management tools around that."
WIN vs Max Griffin
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 59 of 178 33% 63 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Chris Curtis 0 64 of 155 41% 71 of 162 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 21 of 48 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Chris Curtis 0 8 of 32 25% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Griffin 0 17 of 58 29% 19 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 52 40% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Max Griffin 0 21 of 72 29% 22 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 35 of 71 49% 37 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 59 of 178 33% 38 of 147 14 of 21 7 of 10 58 of 175 1 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 64 of 155 41% 44 of 132 18 of 21 2 of 2 61 of 149 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 21 of 48 43% 14 of 38 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 8 of 32 25% 5 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Max Griffin 17 of 58 29% 12 of 51 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 52 40% 15 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 21 of 72 29% 12 of 58 8 of 12 1 of 2 21 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 35 of 71 49% 24 of 57 11 of 14 0 of 0 34 of 68 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Curtis (-310); Griffin (+250)

Round 1
One win away from getting his .500 UFC record back, Griffin (20-11, 8-9 UFC) will be staring across the cage from Curtis (31-12, 1 NC; 5-4, 1 NC UFC). There are no more rules in MMA, as Curtis was able two weeks ago to violate one of the most seemingly inviolable rules of corner interference by
outright attacking his defeated fighter’s opponent
without so much as a whimper from the Nevada State Athletic Commission. “The Action Man” was so starved for action that he recently crashed Luis Hernandez’ victory party at Tuff-N-Uff 145, helping teammate Sean Strickland put hands on Hernandez. It’s time for these welterweights to bang it out with referee Justin Brown watching on. They don’t touch gloves.
Griffin springs after Curtis, pawing out short left hands that do not land. This continues for about 30 seconds, until “Pain” releases a painful calf kick. Curtis checks the second, and he eats a right hand down the pipe when countered. Curtis lunges with a single left hand, pulling back to reset. He stands still waiting for Griffin to come to him, suddenly releasing a pair of punches. Griffin launches a low kick, clacking square into Curtis’ cup loudly. The crowd unleashes boos, possibly doubting he took the illegal blow, but the replay confirms the contact. Brown gives Curtis time to recover, and after a minute, he is good to go. Griffin pump-fakes several times with his legs, but no one is really actually engaging. Curtis steps in to attack, and he complains to Brown that he was headbutted.
Brown tells him to fight on, blood flowing from the wound on Curtis’ head, and Curtis is fired up. He rushes at Griffin hurling punches, his vision partially obscured from the leaking head wound. He strings three punches together, and Griffin snaps his head back and makes Curtis smile. Curtis stalks after Griffin, enjoying himself now, and he takes a left hand so he can pound Griffin in the stomach and temple. Griffin sticks him with a right hand, getting on his bike to move and stay off the gunnery range. Curtis backs him to the wall, and Griffin springboards to get out. Curtis pins him down with a few punches, and he is grappled by “Pain.” Griffin pushes him to the fencing, separating with seconds left and taking a knee to the jaw. Curtis lashes out, grinning like a banshee, but nothing cleanly connects as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The cut across Curtis’ eyebrow is sealed between rounds, but it is deep and wide. The two chatter at one another while trading hands, chasing one another around with momentum shifts. Curtis drills Griffin with a right hook, and Griffin has to hurry to get away before taking further damage. Griffin lets loose with a head kick that stuns Curtis, and as he tries to finish the job, Curtis nails him with a counter to put Griffin down. Griffin jumps back up, and Curtis is on him, swinging harder and with meaner intentions. The right hand from “The Action Man” splits a cut on the side of Griffin’s left eye, and he swings at the same spot when lunging. Griffin strafes to the side and looses a few punches to keep Curtis honest. Curtis slips as he engages, but is no worse for wear.
Curtis misses a massive uppercut by a matter of inches, and he continues to march after the older fighter. Curtis misses on a body kick, and he lands to put a right hand in Griffin’s face. Griffin kicks Curtis in the face, and Curtis completely ignores it but tells Brown that Griffin headbutted him again. The clinch results in a stalemate, and the spoiled fans in the building start booing quickly. The fighters trade knees when tied up before breaking apart, where Griffin gets off a one-two on the break. Curtis goes right after him, headhunting all the while, and Griffin tags him with a right. A second nearly stumbles Curtis, with his own strikes drawing no reaction from “Pain.” Griffin steps in to drive a shovel right hand to the torso, and Curtis grimaces and fires back with a knee. He then activates a reaching combination of punches, with Curtis knocking Griffin back and off the wall. They clinch up again, and Curtis catches him on the way out with a left hand. They hurl fists at one another until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
Curtis introduces himself with a pair of tight jabs, using them to break up the big swings from the advancing Griffin. Griffin fires right back, ending a salvo with a head kick that rebounds off the raised guard. Curtis walks his man down, and Griffin tags him a few times on the way in. Curtis ducks face-first into a right hand, and he takes a solid body kick that slips beneath his guard. He walks Griffin down to stab him in the torso with a long punch, and he keeps swinging until Griffin knocks him back with a right hand. The head movement from Curtis keeps him safe as he tries to remain in the pocket with his opponent, putting short combos together to decent effect. Griffin looses a few body shots and a head kick, and Curtis retaliates with similar punches.
When Curtis ducks again, Griffin times a head kick, but it is the body shot of Curtis that is doing some damage. Griffin backpedals, sucking wind a little, and Curtis lays into him with unanswered strikes. Griffin ducks and counters one with a right hand over the top, and he tries to answer Curtis back with his firepower. The short hooks do not have the same effect as Curtis’ wide swings, but they are effective at keeping Curtis from walking over him. Curtis lands with a hard right, and he finds his home with a left before Griffin tries to tie him up. Griffin marches forward, and Curtis trips him to the mat and smiles at him from ear-to-ear. It takes Griffin a moment to get up, and the two proceed to let one another have it. Knees, head kicks and plenty of fists fly as they ride out the remainder of the clock waging battle. Time expires, and they leave this in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis but expresses concern about his weight cut to welterweight at 37 years old, especially after a recent knockout. He thinks Curtis is the cleaner striker with good takedown defense, but worries about his chin durability after cutting weight. He notes that if the fight is actually at 185, he would be more confident and would bet on Curtis.

Concerned about weight cut; if fight is at 185, would bet on Curtis.
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick. I don't love these odds going down in weight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady likes Chris Curtis as the better striker with higher volume and power. He notes Curtis has elite takedown defense and the fight will stay standing. He mentions Curtis went toe-to-toe with Roman Kopylov. He picks Curtis by decision but warns the line is wide and judges could be an issue.

decision
"Curtis by decision for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The host is high on Curtis moving down to 170 lbs, where he spent most of his career before the UFC. He thinks this will be a great matchup for Curtis to showcase his danger at welterweight and expects him to finish Griffin in the second or third round. The pick is based on Curtis's experience at the weight and his finishing ability.

finish in round 2 or 3
"Curtis going down to 170 lbs, which is where he has spent the majority of his career before joining the UFC. I think this will be a great uh sign for him that he's going to start moving up. I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite. He criticizes Max Griffin's split decision win over Tim Means and believes Curtis would finish Means. He highlights Curtis' experience (12 more pro fights) and his competitive performances against Brendan Allen and Roman Kopylov. He expects Curtis to keep the fight standing, use body shots, and finish Griffin by TKO in the second or third round.

second or third round TKO, body shot related
"I'm going with Chris Curtis over Max Griffin. He is the favorite here. 3 to one favorite."
LOSS vs Roman Kopylov
TKO (head kick) R3 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 142 of 261 54% 146 of 265 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 130 of 307 42% 133 of 310 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 48 of 110 43% 48 of 110 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 58 of 104 55% 59 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 38 of 96 39% 38 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 74 56% 45 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 44 of 101 43% 47 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 142 of 261 54% 107 of 204 30 of 52 5 of 5 142 of 261 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 130 of 307 42% 91 of 266 14 of 16 25 of 25 124 of 300 4 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 42 of 83 50% 32 of 62 8 of 19 2 of 2 42 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 48 of 110 43% 33 of 93 6 of 8 9 of 9 46 of 108 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 58 of 104 55% 42 of 78 14 of 24 2 of 2 58 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 38 of 96 39% 25 of 83 3 of 3 10 of 10 38 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 42 of 74 56% 33 of 64 8 of 9 1 of 1 42 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 44 of 101 43% 33 of 90 5 of 5 6 of 6 40 of 96 2 of 3 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov

Round 1
Fresh off a close five-rounder against rival Brendan Allen, Curtis (31-11, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) takes a step down in competition against Russian striker Kopylov (13-3, 5-3 UFC). While Kopylov has not been ranked, he is as dangerous as any, with knockouts accounting for four of his five triumphs in the Octagon. Keeping a lid on the middleweights will be referee Mark Smith, who clocks the fighters in as they opt for a glove touch. Curtis fights behind a jab, while Kopylov unleashes the first of likely many body kicks. Curtis crowds him with his hands, hoping to take some of those kicks away, but Kopylov chambers and fires off another. Kopylov kicks low and jabs high, and he circles when Curtis backs him up. Kopylov kicks low and is met with a body kick, and Curtis paws out three jabs in rapid succession. Kopylov scores a one-two, and jabs fly from both sides. Curtis kicks the body and gets his bell rung with a right hand, and the snapping jab that follows from Kopylov further stings him. Curtis shakes it off but absorbs another power jab, and he wipes his hands off to reset. Curtis prods out his own effective jab, doubling and tripling up on when he chooses. Curtis keeps his guard up after throwing, but Kopylov still manages to split it with a flurry. Kopylov pounds the front leg with a kick, and he fires off a one-two down the pipe. Curtis walks through it and hand-fights to get his way in. Kopylov flicks out numerous jabs, and Curtis gets tired of dealing with them and crashing forward with an uppercut. Curtis scores a right hand, and Kopylov grabs a leg and lets it go to score a body shot. Kopylov goes for another takedown, and bails on it before Curtis can properly defend. Kopylov kicks the body and dings “The Action Man” with a counter, but Curtis’ left hand lands flush as well. Curtis snaps the head back with an uppercut, reddening the Russian’s nose and forcing him to backpedal. Curtis walks him down behind a series of jabs, and he is ready to block the high kick he expects is coming. Curtis partially deflects a leg kick and puts out a left hand to counter another, and he mixes up jabs and kicks to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov strings together four punches that all bounce off the raised guard, and he takes a deep breath and loses his mouthpiece. Before Curtis can reach him, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, with volume striking on both sides. Curtis digs a few to the body when not jabbing up high, and he zips a right hand over the top after eating a left hook from the Russian. Curtis slams another right to the midsection, and he keeps walking Kopylov down and scoring cleanly. A clean left hand from Curtis shreds open a cut on Kopylov’s right eyebrow, and blood pours from it as soon as it opens. Curtis is in his groove, jabbing and setting up strikes after the jabs. The damage mounts fast from Curtis, who has also bloodied up Kopylov’s nose. Curtis does not take his foot off the gas, proving with jab after jab. Kopylov swings back with a looping right hand, but it ricochets down to Curtis’ cup. This is fortuitous for Kopylov, but Curtis takes just a few seconds to recover after Smith calls time. Curtis stays in Kopylov’s face, walking through body kicks and jabs so he can score his own strikes. Curtis dips and tags Kopylov with a right hand, and after an exchange, Kopylov reaches out with a right hand and pokes Curtis square in the eye. Curtis turns away and asks for a towel to wipe his eye out, trying to hurry so he does not let Kopylov have time to catch his breath. Smith warns the Russian for his second foul, and they touch gloves. Curtis puts his jab in Kopylov’s face time and again, ignoring a calf kick so he can pepper Kopylov with right hands. Kopylov winds up and cracks Curtis with a left hand that stuns “The Action Man,” and Curtis momentarily has to stop and recover. He is quick back to his all-volume approach, and he puts a knuckle in Kopylov’s eye to make him blink it out. Curtis flashes his jabs, and his guard is high and effective but Kopylov keeps throwing back valiantly. Curtis turns and rolls with most of the worst of them, and he puts three punches on the chin. Kopylov returns fire with a few jabs and a body kick, and he connects hard with a left hand that would have felled lesser fighters. The second stanza comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
There is a double glove touch to commence the final frame, and unsurprisingly the middleweights want to hit one another in the face furiously and frequently. Kopylov keeps his range with a body kick, and he finds home with an uppercut as Curtis is chasing him. Curtis’ guard is up, but Kopylov is still connecting on him at least in part. Curtis doubles his jab up, and Kopylov puts more mustard behind his strikes. Curtis brings up an uppercut, and Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a left hand that staggers “The Action Man.” Kopylov blasts the body and works the lead leg, and Curtis shakes his head but may be fading. Curtis jabs his way into range, and he kicks Kopylov in the ribs and uppercuts him as well. Kopylov pins a one-two on the chin, and blood sprays from his mouth, nose and cut when he takes strikes. Kopylov is warned for outstretched fingers, and he gives Curtis the business with another uppercut to the body. When Curtis advances, Kopylov times a double to plant the veteran on his back. Curtis scrambles like a madman to get to his knees and wall-walk upright, and Kopylov wrenches him back down. Curtis recovers again, takes a partial head kick and lays into Kopylov. The Russian lets his fists fly, knocking Curtis’ head around, and somehow Curtis is not only still in the fight but firing back with a vengeance. Kopylov backs off, fatigue setting in hard, and he takes a deep breath and shoots for a takedown. Kopylov sells out for the single, and Curtis defends with the guillotine choke and pushes off with seconds to spare. Putting everything behind their final blows, they swing it out for one bit flurry.
Kopylov looses a head kick at the tail end of the match and walks away, stumbling Curtis and putting him down to the ground. Smith looks closely at Curtis and decides to wave the fight off with about a second to go
, and Curtis is incensed at the stoppage as Kopylov walked off and was not laying into him with finalizing blows. It is a bitter pill to swallow for “The Action Man,” who firmly believes Smith should not have intervened and that it should have gone to the scorecards, where he had a chance at winning. The complaints are not heard, as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout and the fight is over. Kopylov has just earned the biggest win of his career, doing it over an iron-chinned competitor that had only been knocked out once.

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Chris Curtis R3 4:59 via TKO (Head Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.

"Roman kopilov is the better Striker so Roman kopilov has to be the pick it's that simple Striker versus Striker I'm going with the better Striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.

"I like kopov here I think kopov probably wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.

"sign me up for action man he this might be our last big cash on action man you know but uh I'm here for it dude I'm absolutely here for it so plus 210 sign me up for Chris Curtis"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.

"So I got to pick Koppelov here, I just, yeah, I'm my inclination is to pick Koppelov as well."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.

"I think Roman kopov is going to come out here and pick him apart but it could get sketchy late second round late third round"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.

"I think Roman copy love has all the tools to win in this one if he doesn't get caught with a big shot in the middle of the Octagon tradeing I think that he's going to win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.

by knockout
"I still have to lean with copil love as I think he's a superior Striker and has enough sting on his shots to be the second person to finish Chris Curtis by knockout and 43 professional fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.

"I'm flipping my pick we all go down together with the action man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.

"I'm going Roman copy love to win this one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.

"But I am also going to take Koppelov because much as I love him and respect him. I do not trust Chris Curtis."
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 112 of 222 50% 128 of 242 6 of 13 46% 0 0 6:05
Chris Curtis 0 124 of 241 51% 141 of 261 0 of 0 --- 0 2 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 22 of 40 55% 24 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
Chris Curtis 0 13 of 41 31% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Brendan Allen 0 29 of 66 43% 29 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Chris Curtis 0 46 of 80 57% 46 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brendan Allen 0 23 of 42 54% 31 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Brendan Allen 0 25 of 39 64% 28 of 44 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:24
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
5 Brendan Allen 0 13 of 35 37% 16 of 38 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:14
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 31 67% 35 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 112 of 222 50% 72 of 172 25 of 34 15 of 16 108 of 214 4 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 124 of 241 51% 96 of 205 25 of 33 3 of 3 122 of 237 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 22 of 40 55% 12 of 26 7 of 10 3 of 4 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 13 of 41 31% 8 of 34 5 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 29 of 66 43% 20 of 55 6 of 8 3 of 3 28 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 46 of 80 57% 36 of 67 8 of 11 2 of 2 46 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brendan Allen 23 of 42 54% 14 of 31 4 of 6 5 of 5 22 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 45 51% 18 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Brendan Allen 25 of 39 64% 16 of 30 6 of 6 3 of 3 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 44 47% 17 of 39 3 of 4 1 of 1 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Brendan Allen 13 of 35 37% 10 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 31 2 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 31 67% 17 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis because he already knocked out Brendan Allen in under two minutes in their first fight. He believes Allen's recent win streak is impressive but that he can only win by getting the fight to the ground, which is very difficult against Curtis's takedown defense. Angelo also notes that Curtis on short notice may be better because he doesn't overthink. He mentions that underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024 and expects that trend to continue.

underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024
"I got to go Chris here... Chris Curtis is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, noting that he doesn't understand why Allen is a 2-to-1 favorite. He highlights Curtis's elite takedown defense, durability, and cardio, and believes the fight will take place on the feet, where Curtis is more defensively sound and durable. He thinks Allen is hitable and has been knocked out before, and predicts Curtis will find Allen's chin over 25 minutes and win by third-round knockout.

win by third round knockout
"I'm taking Chris Curtis here I'm taking Chris Curtis to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Allen's wins have come against one-dimensional grapplers, while Curtis is a sprawl-and-brawl boxer who works the body and legs. He points out that Curtis has looked midling lately but still has the style to beat Allen. Cody also highlights that Curtis knows Allen from sparring and took the first fight on short notice, and that the five-round fight favors Curtis's power and cardio. He expects Curtis to win by TKO again.

likely by TKO
"I think asman does it again... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Daniel Vreeland picks Brendan Allen but is hesitant due to Allen's ego and past knockout loss to Curtis. He notes Allen has improved since their first fight, with a six-fight win streak and better grappling as a black belt. However, he worries Allen might get distracted by Sean Strickland's trash talk and engage in pocket exchanges where Curtis excels. Vreeland believes Allen has more paths to victory if he fights smart, using kicks and distance to avoid brawling, and can win by volume or submission if he gets top control.

"I'm gonna go Brendan Allen but I'd be remissed if I left this out... if Brennan's gonna fight with his ego... I'd move in on a Chris Curtis live bet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Curtis has the striking advantage and an iron chin. Allen's wrestling isn't good enough to get Curtis down consistently. In the pocket, Curtis will land the bigger shots and likely knock Allen out again, as he did in their first fight. The line is too wide for Allen.

Curtis by KO (around +250)
"I'm going to go with Curtis here you know rematches normally don't always go the same as the first fight but considering the stylistic Clash that we have here and some of the shortcomings that Allen has with the wrestling …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul thinks Chris Curtis is a bad matchup for Brendan Allen again. He notes Allen has improved but Curtis is a brick wall with solid boxing, body work, and five-round cardio. Paul believes Curtis's sprawl-and-brawl style will stifle Allen's takedowns and that Curtis will eventually land his power, likely by TKO. He also mentions Curtis took the fight on short notice last time and still won, and that the five-round distance favors Curtis's pressure.

likely by TKO
"I still think that this is a bad match up for Brennan Allen... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The host provides a detailed breakdown, noting Allen was doing well in the first fight before getting caught. He highlights Allen's improved offensive grappling (submitting Paul Craig, holding his own against Jacob Malkoun) and striking. He sees Curtis regressing, losing power, and taking the fight on short notice. He predicts Allen will win by submission in the first round via rear-naked choke, using body kicks to set up takedowns and chain wrestling to take Curtis' back.

submission win predicted, first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to say that he gets this one done by submission and I'm going to say that he gets it done in the first round actually I'm going to say first round rear naked choke for Brendan Allen"
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 140 of 258 54% 144 of 262 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 122 of 243 50% 124 of 245 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Curtis 0 51 of 99 51% 51 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 45 of 85 52% 45 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Curtis 0 66 of 111 59% 70 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 59 of 112 52% 61 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 140 of 258 54% 101 of 210 35 of 44 4 of 4 116 of 230 24 of 28 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 122 of 243 50% 77 of 189 33 of 42 12 of 12 105 of 218 17 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 23 of 48 47% 15 of 36 5 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 18 of 46 39% 8 of 35 4 of 5 6 of 6 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Curtis 51 of 99 51% 40 of 85 10 of 13 1 of 1 47 of 95 4 of 4 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 45 of 85 52% 28 of 64 14 of 18 3 of 3 45 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Curtis 66 of 111 59% 46 of 89 20 of 22 0 of 0 46 of 87 20 of 24 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 59 of 112 52% 41 of 90 15 of 19 3 of 3 42 of 88 17 of 24 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Angelo leans Barriault, citing his forward pressure, toughness, and Canadian home advantage. He worries that Curtis's counter-striking style may not impress judges if he's backing up. He notes Barriault must avoid Curtis's big hook. He has placed a quarter unit on Barriault at plus 150 and may add more if the line moves.

Quarter unit bet at +150; may add more if line moves to +200
"I am G to pick Mark Andre here I'm going to lean Mark Andre here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Barriault as a dog, saying the odds make no sense. He notes Curtis is a slow starter who gets outlanded in most fights, while Barriault has high volume and is fighting in Canada. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Canadian judges potentially favoring Barriault. He doubts either fighter gets a knockout.

split decision
"give me the dog here Mark andario I do not get this line whatsoever"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Curtis due to his higher level of competition and power advantage. He notes Curtis is a slow starter but has nasty power and volume. He expects a third-round TKO or decision win for Curtis.

Curtis by TKO in round 3
"I think it's going to be a third round stoppage for by TKO for Action Man or a decision win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Vreeland picks Barriault as a home dog, noting his grappling and durability. He sees the fight as even but likes the plus money on Barriault. Vreeland acknowledges Barriault's cardio and durability as strengths, but doesn't elaborate on a specific path to victory beyond the value.

plus 165 dog money on home soil
"I'll go with bario I think it's worth a stab at at the dog money on his on his home soil um good Grappler doesn't doesn't rely on grappling very much better Striker but less power than than Curtis so …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault as a live dog. He notes that Curtis often needs a knockout to win, otherwise he loses decisions. Barriault is durable, has nasty uppercuts and elbows in the clinch, and can crack. Vreeland expects Barriault to win by decision if he survives Curtis's early power.

by decision
"I'm actually gonna pick him to win this fight probably by decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Fox picks Curtis, believing he is the right style to beat Barriault. He notes that Barriault's best weapons are cardio and durability, but Curtis doesn't overextend and stays within himself. Fox points to Curtis's defensive grappling against opponents like Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov as evidence he can handle Barriault's grappling. He thinks Barriault gets hit a lot and isn't overly sharp on the feet, so Curtis should win if he doesn't get drawn into prolonged exchanges.

"I think Chris Curtis is the right kind of guy to beat Mark Andre bario uh if if you ask me what Bario's best weapon is I think it's pretty obvious it's disc cardio um it's cardio and his durability …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Curtis vs Barriault.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

I'm going with Barriault as an underdog. He is active, high pressure, high pace, and has great cardio. He can stick at distance, utilize kicks, and mix in the clinch. Curtis is reliant on a knockout to win, but Barriault's style should be tough for Curtis to overcome. I think Barriault puts together a better overall body of work and wins by decision.

decision victory
"as an underdog got to go with the guy bario here to go out there and put together their better overall body of workc to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis by KO, citing his power advantage and Barriault's chinny history. He thinks Curtis will land a big shot after a slow start, possibly in round 2 or 3. He notes Barriault's cardio but believes Curtis's power is the difference.

Curtis by KO at +225
"I think Curtis by KO is how I see this fight playing out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, citing his body work and pressure. He notes Barriault's tendency to get overwhelmed by volume and gassing, and believes Curtis's body shots will be key. He mentions Curtis's power advantage and the motivation from training with Sean Strickland. He predicts a TKO via body shots in round two or three.

TKO via body shots, round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Chris Curtis here over Mark Andre barot"
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R2 3:04 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 84 67% 59 of 86 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:22
Chris Curtis 0 26 of 61 42% 34 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 29 of 36 80% 31 of 38 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:07
Chris Curtis 0 15 of 32 46% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Chris Curtis 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 84 67% 27 of 48 8 of 12 22 of 24 54 of 80 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 26 of 61 42% 4 of 28 8 of 18 14 of 15 26 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 29 of 36 80% 11 of 16 4 of 6 14 of 14 28 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 15 of 32 46% 1 of 12 5 of 10 9 of 10 15 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 28 of 48 58% 16 of 32 4 of 6 8 of 10 26 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 11 of 29 37% 3 of 16 3 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.

"I picked nasridine which means Chris is going to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.

fight goes to decision
"I do lean towards the Nazarene imove offside is going to be this reason... Chris Curtis is a very slow starter... I don't see him knocking out nazarethov... this fight is Going the Distance more often than not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.

"I think he just stays at the outside and paints a picture"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'll pick I'll I'll stick with you and pick Chris Curtis here. I don't like it, but yeah, you see what I'm saying."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.

"I really like Chris Curtis here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.

Chris Curtis KO round 3 at +2100 (small sprinkle)
"I'm calling it about a 29-28 win for a Marvel van"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.

"I feel as though he is just more equipped to win this stylistic matchup not to mention the size disadvantage that Chris Curtis will be at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.

"I'm with you I'm picking imov but I couldn't I couldn't I couldn't better but against our guy uh Chris Curtis with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.

underdog pick, noted odds
"I am going to be picking Chris Curtis as an underdog here over nasadena mavov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'm gonna pick Curtis here. I think the big the other big thing here is the buckley fight... Curtis is much more capable of taking small swings of momentum and using them to close doors than buckley is."
LOSS vs Kelvin Gastelum
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 70 of 201 34% 80 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 83 of 188 44% 88 of 195 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 65 30% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 56 41% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 88 42% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 70 of 201 34% 44 of 164 21 of 30 5 of 7 63 of 193 7 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 83 of 188 44% 63 of 161 5 of 8 15 of 19 76 of 172 3 of 6 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 48 27% 8 of 40 1 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 64 46% 20 of 51 0 of 0 10 of 13 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 65 30% 11 of 51 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 56 41% 20 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 3 19 of 44 0 of 2 4 of 10
3 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 11 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 83 5 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 68 44% 23 of 59 4 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

moneyline bet
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick I do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

"I like I like Curtis to win ... I'll take Chris Curtis to win by like a split uh decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Curtis by decision at +240; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"Chris Curtis by decision I'll tell you that much"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

"Yeah, same."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

"I'm locked and loaded on Chris Curtis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

"I think this is probably the most favorable matchup that Calvin gaslim has had during this entire slump maybe with the exception of the Ian heinish fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

Curtis by decision at +240; over 2.5 rounds at -220; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"sign me up for Action Man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

round three finish, body shot
"I'm gonna say Curtis finishes him in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

"I'm going to pick Chris Curtis because I think he's going to land the better shots."
KO (punches) R2 2:49 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 1 36 of 87 41% 36 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Joaquin Buckley 0 50 of 163 30% 50 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joaquin Buckley 0 29 of 91 31% 29 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Curtis 1 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Joaquin Buckley 0 21 of 72 29% 21 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 36 of 87 41% 25 of 72 3 of 5 8 of 10 29 of 78 1 of 1 6 of 8
Joaquin Buckley 50 of 163 30% 27 of 134 15 of 20 8 of 9 48 of 159 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 19 of 49 38% 11 of 38 2 of 3 6 of 8 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 29 of 91 31% 12 of 71 11 of 13 6 of 7 27 of 87 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Chris Curtis 17 of 38 44% 14 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 29 1 of 1 6 of 8
Joaquin Buckley 21 of 72 29% 15 of 63 4 of 7 2 of 2 21 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Chris Curtis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-155), Curtis (+135)

Round 1
The UFC 282 ESPN prelims chose violence to open them up, as middleweight strikers Curtis (29-9, 3-1 UFC) and Buckley (15-5, 5-3 UFC) are sure to throw leather with high intensity for as long as they can. With 27 knockouts combined, referee Jason Herzog and the smelling salts may be needed by the bout’s end if fight fans are lucky. The sluggers that have developed some bad blood before their match do not touch gloves, as they would rather introduce their fists to one another’s faces first. The fighters are tense and not willing to release much of note early, tossing single strikes at one another like head kicks. Curtis splits the guard with a jab, and he sits down on a low kick. Buckley answers with one of his own, and this back-and-forth of similar strikes continues. Buckley jabs to the head and body, and he hops back from a one-two that zips straight at him. Buckley crowds his man with a few short punches, and when Curtis escapes, Buckley whips a low kick that slaps hard on the lead leg. Curtis gets one-two through, and Buckley surges forward in hopes of getting that back after getting stung. Curtis stays light on his feet and escapes, while keeping a high guard to defend against the heavier strikes hurled at him. Buckley mixes his strikes up with a body shot, and he whiffs with the lion’s share of a combination that ends with a glancing head kick. Curtis intercepts an advancing Buckley with an inside thigh kick that skips into the groin, and the fans shower them with boos until realizing it was a foul. Curtis apologizes and Buckley recovers, and they return to throwing single strikes when resuming. Buckley just misses with a head kick, and Curtis starts talking to him. Curtis fires off a jab and a right hand, and Buckley tries to reply with five heavy punches that largely collide with the guard. The jabs from Curtis lead to Buckley pawing at his eye, and Buckley tries to chop down the lead leg. Buckley remains busy but walks into a body kick, and he gets cracked as he strikes. Curtis smiles at him and blocks a pair of hefty uppercuts, and he shells up when Buckley fires off a combo that concludes with a head kick. When Buckley’s punches up top miss, he goes after the body with a salvo. The round ends right as Buckley connects with a handful of body shots.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 2
Curtis is quick to claim the center of the cage, and Buckley leads off with kicks to the body on the outside. Curtis walks Buckley down and jabs several times, eliciting reactions out of his opponent. Curtis walks through the heavy blows to snap the head back with straight punches, and Buckley is throwing everything he has into power shots. Curtis’ guard and head movement largely keep him out of harm, but Buckley crashes the pocket and catches him at the end of a left hook. Curtis looks to play counter, and Buckley beats him to the punch with a combo. Curtis snaps out a left hand, and Buckley strings three punches together before absorbing a low kick. They land alternating hooks at the same time, and Curtis rolls when retreating as Buckley pours on the pressure. Two nasty hooks to the body slam into Curtis’ side, but he catches Buckley leaping at him with a left. Buckley loads up and connects, forcing Curtis into action with a responsive head kick. Buckley chains a long series of punches together off the guard, and he is feeling himself.
Curtis blocks and catches a head kick and unloads a brutal left hand that knocks Buckley clean off his feet, and Buckley might be out when he hits the ground. “New Mansa” snaps back into action, and he throws his legs up and tries to swing off his back, but Curtis is measured and he drills his foe with ground-and-pound. Buckley goes out again, and the punches knock him back conscious once more as Herzog is paying close attention but giving Buckley a great deal of leeway. Knowing the finish is right there for the taking, Curtis hammers the nail with hammerfists, putting Buckley out once and for all.
Although Buckley comes back to seconds later and appears upset with Herzog about the stoppage, he was knocked out two or three times before the finish materialized. Curtis has bounced back from his first UFC defeat in big way, and he is all smiles after the back-and-forth battle.

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Joaquin Buckley R2 2:49 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Buckley but is hesitant, noting that Curtis has only fought grapplers in the UFC and knocked them out, while Buckley has fought strikers with mixed success. He acknowledges Curtis's short-notice loss to Hermansson may be excusable. He plans to wait for prop bets rather than betting the moneyline, comparing the matchup to Wonderboy vs Holland where a striker's true level was revealed.

No moneyline bet; waiting for prop bets.
"the pick I think is going to be Buckley at this point and this this is I may change his pick so make sure you watch the updated video"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as a dog, citing Curtis's superior durability and volume. He notes Buckley has been knocked out three times and knocked down often, while Curtis has only been knocked out once in 38 fights. He expects Curtis to find Buckley's chin and knock him out in the second round.

Curtis wins by second round knockout; Curtis is a dog at +135
"I like Chris Curtis to get this done um I like Chris Curtis to eventually find the chin of Joaquin Buckley and and knock this guy out and give him his fourth knockout loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Chris Curtis, citing his takedown defense (100% in UFC), striking output, and experience. He notes Buckley's low volume and cardio issues, and that Curtis will double his output. He thinks Curtis' jab and right hand will be key, and that Buckley's power is a threat but Curtis can weather it. He expects a decision win for Curtis.

"I'm all action man Homer and so let's bring it back to the positive of why Chris Curtis wins this fight... takedown defense striking output"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his more varied path to victory. He criticizes Chris Curtis's poor attitude and limited offense outside the pocket. Levi believes Buckley should use movement, kicks, and feints to stay on the outside, and can mix in takedowns to exploit Curtis's historically weak bottom game. He thinks Curtis's only chance is a pocket boxing match, while Buckley can win by striking at range, takedowns, or even a knockout. Levi sees Buckley as the more explosive and versatile fighter.

"Buckley's got more ways to win... I think as long as Buckley uses a lot of movement uses a lot of kicks and doesn't stay stationary"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Lock picks Buckley to get his hand raised, but he wants nothing to do with the fight from a betting or PredictionStrike perspective. He thinks neither guy has a huge ceiling in the UFC, and Buckley's skill set is limited. He notes that Buckley is closer to Curtis in size compared to Curtis's previous fight against Jack Hermansson, but still sees Buckley as a guy who will trade wins and losses without breaking into the top 10.

"I do think Buckley gets his hand raised here but I think he's one of those guys that's going to go out there and continuously trade wins and losses"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Chris Curtis, noting the plus money and that Curtis should be able to pick Buckley apart at range. He thinks Buckley's power is dangerous but Curtis has the boxing and experience. He is confident in Curtis as a dog.

"I'll be picking him but I'm more interested in what you have to say about this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Chris Curtis, praising Buckley's underrated striking and athleticism. He notes that Curtis is 35 and relies on counter-wrestling and big shots, but Buckley is elusive and dangerous with head kicks and body kicks. He believes Buckley will out-scrap Curtis over three rounds, possibly winning 30-27 or by TKO, and that Curtis doesn't have the KO power to stop Buckley.

"I'm going with Joaquin Buckley here I think he gets a lot of stick because he was the highlight guy and he never really lived up to that potential but dude he gave nasadena mavov everything he could handle"
Phil Hawes - Fight History
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
KO (punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 19 of 43 44% 24 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 19 of 43 44% 24 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 13 of 27 48% 8 of 18 4 of 7 1 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 19 of 43 44% 18 of 38 0 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 33 0 of 3 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 13 of 27 48% 8 of 18 4 of 7 1 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 19 of 43 44% 18 of 38 0 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 33 0 of 3 4 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo leans Phil Hawes despite his suspect chin, believing he is the better fighter overall with superior wrestling and athleticism. He fears Hawes will get caught striking with Brunno Ferreira, who hits hard. He hopes Hawes uses his wrestling to take Ferreira down. He advises not betting on this fight due to volatility.

"I am still going to Pi Phil I just have a soft spot for my highlevel wrestlers."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady acknowledges Phil Hawes is better in every skill except durability. He notes Hawes has a questionable chin and has been knocked out brutally. Ferreira has power, and Brady fears Hawes will get caught despite likely winning early. He picks Ferreira by first-round knockout, unable to trust Hawes' chin.

first round knockout
"I'm GNA take Bruno Ferrera first round knockout H is probably looking good up until he's not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Cody picks Hawes despite historically fading him, because he sees a path to victory via wrestling. He notes that both fighters have similar power and durability issues, but Hawes has a wrestling background that could allow him to take Ferreira down and maul him. He admits it's a risky pick and expects Hawes might still find a way to lose.

"I'm gonna take Phil HW"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to knock out Phil Hawes. He praises Hawes's athleticism and skills but notes his weak chin, predicting Hawes will school Ferreira until he gets caught. Vreeland believes Ferreira's power and Judo background will be enough to finish Hawes, as Hawes has been knocked out repeatedly.

"I think Phil Hawes is going to look really good until Bruno Ferrera knocks him out unfortunately."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Brunno Ferreira is a BJJ black belt with power in his hands, but he was knocked out in his last fight against Nursulton Ruziboev. Phil Hawes has durability issues and has been finished in his last two fights, but he starts fast with explosive power. Both fighters have knockout power and questionable chins, making this a coin flip. I lean slightly to Ferreira because I trust his durability a bit more, but this fight likely ends in the first round. I'm passing on a moneyline bet and might play the 'fight doesn't start round 2' prop.

Fight doesn't start round 2 (under 1.5 rounds)
"I'm going to go with faera and FAA by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira by first-round KO, noting that Hawes has a weak chin and Ferreira has devastating power. He believes the fight will end early, either by Ferreira knockout or Hawes taking him down, but he prefers the KO prop. He took the bet at +275 early in the week.

Brunno Ferreira KO round 1 +275
"I'm taking Bruno Ferrera ko1 plus 275"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, focusing on Phil Hawes' weak chin. He lists Hawes' KO losses to Chris Curtis, Roman Dolidze, and Ikram Aliskerov, noting that one clean shot puts him out. He believes Ferreira can land at least five clean punches and one will knock Hawes out cold.

"I'm going to bet that Bruno FAA can land at least five clean punches on the chin of Phil hores in this fight and I think if he lands five of them one of them is going to put him …"
LOSS vs Ikram Aliskerov
KO (punches) R1 2:10 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 17 of 28 60% 4 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 20 of 33 60% 13 of 24 6 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 17 of 28 60% 4 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 20 of 33 60% 13 of 24 6 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes but admits it's probably a bad pick. He bases his decision on Hawes' Division I national champion wrestling background and superior striking power and speed. The key question is whether Hawes can defend Aliskerov's relentless wrestling; if he does, he should win clearly. Angelo is concerned about Hawes' suspect chin and Aliskerov's non-stop pressure. He threw 0.2 units on Hawes at +175 for patriotic reasons, noting it's easier to finish a takedown than defend one.

0.2 units at +175 for America
"I'm gonna ride or die with American wrestling here Phil Hall's gonna be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but with low confidence, noting Hawes has a questionable chin and cardio. He believes Hawes has the wrestling to stuff Aliskerov's takedowns and the striking advantage. He predicts a first-round knockout for Hawes, but admits he's not betting this fight because Hawes is unreliable.

First round knockout prediction; probably not betting this fight
"I'm gonna pick Phil Hawes and you can never have confidence in in Phil Hawes honestly ever against anybody but I'm gonna take him to the stuff the takedown's here keep it on the feet and do the better work …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody sees Aliskerov as the pick but suggests live betting after the first round for a better price. He notes Hawes has explosive power but poor cardio and durability, and tends to fade. Aliskerov is a Russian grappler who can drag Hawes into deep waters. He expects Aliskerov to win by taking over in later rounds.

Over 1.5 rounds at even money; live betting Aliskerov after round 1
"I think -210 pre-flop yeah I would bet him because I think he's gonna win but I think we can get a much better price on that after the first"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Connor picks Aliskerov more confidently, arguing that Hawes' main problem is he doesn't think during fights and gets surprised. Aliskerov's pressure and grappling will force Hawes to think, which breaks his flow. He notes Hawes has not solved his core issue.

Aliskerov opened -309, now -189; Hawes opened +261, now +167.
"I feel pretty okay actually about picking Aliskerov. Phil Hawes just doesn't have it, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The host picks Ikram Aliskerov to win inside the distance, likely in round two. He believes Aliskerov's wrestling and cardio will wear down Phil Hawes, who has durability and cardio issues. He notes Hawes' only chance is an early knockout, but expects Aliskerov to take over as the fight progresses.

Aliskerov inside the distance, round 2
"I'm picking the Russian fighter to get his hand raised and I think he does it inside the distance let's call it round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov but is not confident enough to bet at -210. He notes Hawes has a wrestling background and power, but his chin and cardio are suspect. He thinks Aliskerov's path is to survive the first round and then take over.

"I think ikram is the side at minus 210 I don't know if I'm going to attack it from a betting perspective though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The Guru picks Aliskerov, citing Hawes' terrible chin and recent leg injury from Roman Dolidze. He believes Aliskerov will have a wrestling advantage as the fight goes on, targeting Hawes' compromised leg. He notes Hawes hasn't looked good since the injury and is 34-35 years old.

"I'm gonna side with ikramalisker of here I just think he's going to be smart to shoot on one of the legs and make Phil Hall's balance on the other leg"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Zane picks Aliskerov hesitantly, citing Hawes' tendency to get caught and his mindless flow state. He notes Aliskerov's pressure and takedown threat could break Hawes' rhythm. However, he worries Aliskerov's striking is limited and he may not be able to finish Hawes.

Aliskerov opened -309, now -189; Hawes opened +261, now +167.
"I'm going to pick him. I hate to do it, but got to happen."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
KO (punches) R1 4:09 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 26 42% 15 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Phil Hawes 1 18 of 42 42% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 26 42% 15 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Phil Hawes 1 18 of 42 42% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 11 of 26 42% 5 of 15 5 of 9 1 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 18 of 42 42% 15 of 38 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 36 2 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 11 of 26 42% 5 of 15 5 of 9 1 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 18 of 42 42% 15 of 38 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 36 2 of 4 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes to win by decision, but expresses concern about Hawes' chin. He believes Hawes is the better fighter and will stuff Dolidze's takedowns and have success on the feet, but notes that Dolidze hits hard and Hawes has been knocked out before. He says Hawes should be the minute winner but cannot be overly confident due to durability issues.

Hawes wins by decision
"I'll go with Haws you can't be too confident in it because the chin but I do think he wins this fight I'll say he wins it by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody leans toward Roman Dolidze as an underdog, believing he can land a big shot in the clinch. He notes Dolidze's power and the fact that Phil Hawes has durability issues. Cody mentions Dolidze by knockout at +500 as a possible small sprinkle, but is not confident overall.

Dolidze by knockout at +500 (small sprinkle)
"I think the leads is gonna land like just once like I think he's gonna knock him out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Connor picks Phil Hawes confidently, arguing that Hawes's single-minded offense and ability to recover from being hurt are key. He notes that Dolidze is not a good striker and relies on clinching and grinding, but Hawes has the strength to stall in clinch situations. Connor believes Hawes's recent improvements at Sanford MMA and his proven durability against tough opponents give him the edge.

"I'm Dave. I'm taking Phil. I'm happy."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes but is hesitant due to Hawes' questionable chin. He praises Hawes' physical attributes, wrestling, and power, but notes he has been knocked out before. He expects Hawes to win unless he gets knocked out. He does not mention a bet.

"I'm gonna pick Phil Haas to win the fight but uh you know if he gets knocked out you know you can't act surprised."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Jacob picks Phil Hawes, believing he should be the better striker with a quick jab and can withstand Dolidze's grappling. He acknowledges Dolidze's relentless pressure and scrambling ability but thinks Hawes can win on the feet. He mentions possibly looking at Hawes by points.

Phil Hawes by points
"my official pick is Phil Hawes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Hawes has improved his pacing and cardio, using grappling to grind out opponents. Dolidze is durable and aggressive, but Hawes is the better wrestler and should be able to control the fight. However, there are still questions about Hawes going the full 15 minutes. The decision prop at +210 is interesting but the moneyline is the safer play.

Hawes by decision +210
"the pick is Phil Hawes I'm going to be sitting back and just watching this one as a spectator but I think that Phil Haas is the side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Paul picks Phil Hawes, noting his improved cardio, wrestling pedigree, and recent smarter fighting. He criticizes Dolidze's low volume, poor ring IQ, and reliance on leg locks. Paul believes Hawes can stuff takedowns and win a striking battle, though he admits he rarely picks Hawes and may curse him.

"I honestly just feel like he's fighting way smarter these days he's gonna be faster he's going to be able to stop this the takedowns get this fight standing and just chip away at him or land something big"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The MMA Guru picks Phil Hawes over Roman Dolidze, believing Hawes' strength and wrestling will prevent Dolidze from controlling him against the cage. He notes Hawes' improved striking in his last fight against Roman, where he showed great defense. He thinks Dolidze loads up his shots, making them easier to see, and predicts Hawes will finish Dolidze in the third round as Dolidze slows down.

"I'm going to be going with Phil Hawes here over Roman Deliza"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Zane picks Phil Hawes but is hesitant, acknowledging Hawes's tendency to get hurt and his single-minded offense. He notes that Hawes has lost only to good fighters and that Dolidze's style is clingy and boring, but Hawes's lack of defense and tendency to get chin-checked are concerns. Zane ultimately trusts Hawes's offensive output and durability recovery over Dolidze's grinding approach.

"I'll go with you. I'll pick Phil Hall's, which it sounds like you're doing."
WIN vs Deron Winn
TKO (elbows) R2 4:25 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 1 118 of 175 67% 126 of 191 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:47
Deron Winn 0 32 of 111 28% 34 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 1 55 of 87 63% 56 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Deron Winn 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Phil Hawes 0 63 of 88 71% 70 of 103 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:43
Deron Winn 0 15 of 67 22% 17 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 118 of 175 67% 99 of 152 17 of 21 2 of 2 89 of 138 14 of 18 15 of 19
Deron Winn 32 of 111 28% 24 of 101 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 100 3 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 55 of 87 63% 43 of 71 10 of 14 2 of 2 49 of 77 3 of 6 3 of 4
Deron Winn 17 of 44 38% 13 of 40 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Phil Hawes 63 of 88 71% 56 of 81 7 of 7 0 of 0 40 of 61 11 of 12 12 of 15
Deron Winn 15 of 67 22% 11 of 61 3 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 59 1 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes despite acknowledging Deron Winn's superior offensive wrestling stats (almost 5 takedowns per fight, 52% accuracy vs Hawes' 33%). He compares it to the Brendan Allen vs Jacob Malkoun fight, where the more talented fighter (Hawes) can lose if he doesn't initiate takedowns first. He notes Hawes is the better mixed martial artist but Winn has a clear path if he shoots first.

"i am gonna pick phil hawes here because he is the better mixed martial artist but there is a clear path for duron win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges Hawes has a questionable chin and cardio, but believes Hawes is much bigger with a six-inch height and 7.5-inch reach advantage, and has 100% takedown defense to stuff Winn's wrestling. He expects Hawes to knock out Winn early, likely in the first round.

first round knockout
"I think phil haas finishes the wrong win in that very first round so phil has first round knockout to kick off the banger of a card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Cody picks Hawes but is cautious due to Hawes' chin and cardio. He thinks Hawes' striking and power are advantages, and Winn's weight cuts and cardio issues are problematic. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to see Winn's condition.

"i think he's able to maybe get the job done down the stretch"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes confidently, stating Hawes has everything except a chin: D1 wrestling, one-punch power, and physicality. He believes Deron Winn is too short (5'4") and will struggle to take Hawes down. Levi thinks Hawes wins everywhere unless he gets knocked out, which is possible given his suspect chin. He expects Hawes to dominate and win, possibly by knockout.

Hawes -270; expects domination; Winn's only chance is a puncher's chance
"phil haas don't get knocked out and you win this fight literally everywhere it goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Paul leans toward Hawes but is not confident. He notes both fighters are untrustworthy and the fight could be ugly. He thinks Hawes' reach and power are key, but Winn's wrestling could be a factor if he makes weight.

"i don't know i i would say both guys are not trustworthy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The MMA Guru picks Phil Hawes despite worrying about his weak chin, as seen in the Chris Curtis fight. He believes Hawes is much bigger and stronger than Deron Winn, who is too small for middleweight. He predicts Hawes will neutralize Winn's wrestling and land a knockout via a knee to the face in the second round.

ko in second round
"i'm going to be going with phil hawes here i worry... i do worry about his chin... phil gets a ko with a knee to the face in the second round"
LOSS vs Chris Curtis
KO (punches) R1 4:27 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 48 of 90 53% 49 of 91 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 21 of 36 58% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 48 of 90 53% 49 of 91 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 21 of 36 58% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 48 of 90 53% 24 of 63 15 of 18 9 of 9 46 of 85 2 of 5 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 21 of 36 58% 15 of 27 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 48 of 90 53% 24 of 63 15 of 18 9 of 9 46 of 85 2 of 5 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 21 of 36 58% 15 of 27 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes, highlighting his wrestling, power, and improved cardio. He notes that Hawes turned down a short-notice fight earlier, showing he takes his career seriously. He believes Hawes should win by using his wrestling to control Curtis, who is a welterweight moving up. He also mentions that Curtis has poor takedown defense and fades against wrestlers.

More more on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"phil has power phil has the wrestling phil should absolutely win this fight but chris could potentially stick and move his way to a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Curtis as a dog, citing his excellent cardio, technical boxing, and defensive wrestling. He notes Hawes is a fast starter who tires, and Curtis specializes in taking opponents into deep waters. He expects Curtis to win by late TKO, possibly round 3.

Curtis round 3
"we're going chris curtis"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes to win, stating that Hawes is on a different level than Chris Curtis. He notes that Hawes has knockout power, D1 wrestling, and has improved significantly since his early losses. Levi believes Curtis's only path to victory is a lucky knockout, and that Hawes can win by decision or knockout. He mentions that Curtis is a welterweight moving up and that historically, Curtis loses to UFC-caliber opponents.

decision or knockout
"give me a phil haas for the dub"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Jacob picks Phil Hawes, emphasizing that Curtis has awful takedown defense and is a pure boxer. He urges Hawes to wrestle rather than strike, as Curtis has real power. He believes Hawes will take Curtis down and get a TKO finish in the first round. He also likes Hawes in DraftKings for takedowns.

Less less on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"if you're phil halls just wrestle man just wrestle get your win get out of there... i'm telling you phil if you try to strike with this guy it could be a problem"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

The host picks Hawes to win by decision, but he is not confident enough to bet him at -320. He notes Hawes gets hurt in fights and Curtis has knockout power. He considers a small sprinkle on Curtis round 3 at +1800-2500.

Curtis round 3 (+1800-2500)
"i'm gonna go phil haas to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Curtis as a dog. He mentions Curtis's story and motivation, and believes Hawes is vulnerable if the fight goes past the first round. He also likes Curtis round 3 as a prop.

Curtis round 3
"curtis round three as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The Guru picks Phil Hawes, citing his size, reach, and power advantages over Chris Curtis, who is moving up from welterweight on short notice. He notes Hawes' KO wins and believes Curtis is not ready for this matchup. The Guru predicts a first-round KO for Hawes.

first round ko
"I'm going to be going with phillip hawes here um i get you can pick chris curtis but it's not smart to do so."
WIN vs Kyle Daukaus
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 66 of 101 65% 157 of 210 2 of 4 50% 1 0 5:34
Kyle Daukaus 0 28 of 82 34% 52 of 113 0 of 7 0% 0 1 4:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 16 of 22 72% 32 of 39 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:33
Kyle Daukaus 0 5 of 21 23% 18 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:56
2 Phil Hawes 0 29 of 45 64% 48 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Kyle Daukaus 0 22 of 51 43% 30 of 60 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:17
3 Phil Hawes 0 21 of 34 61% 77 of 106 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Kyle Daukaus 0 1 of 10 10% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 66 of 101 65% 42 of 75 23 of 25 1 of 1 33 of 57 18 of 19 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 28 of 82 34% 20 of 68 6 of 11 2 of 3 26 of 78 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 11 10 of 11 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 5 of 21 23% 2 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 1
2 Phil Hawes 29 of 45 64% 15 of 30 14 of 15 0 of 0 21 of 37 8 of 8 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 22 of 51 43% 17 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 2 21 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Phil Hawes 21 of 34 61% 17 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 1 of 10 10% 1 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Phil Hawes vs. Kyle Daukaus

Round 1
The new main card opener sees a middleweight clash between representatives of rival states New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as Hawes (10-2, 2-0 UFC) will ply his knockout-friendly trade against submission specialist Daukaus (10-1, 1-1 UFC). The third man in the cage for a fight that may not last long is referee Mark Smith, and there is no serious glove touch before the two get down to business. The blonde-haired Hawes comes out aggressively, throwing bombs and backing Daukaus up immediately. Hawes has a kick clip the cup, and there is a pause for just a second or two. Daukaus adjusts himself and throws back with heavy leather, and Hawes is either hurt or off-balance, as he slips back. Hawes interrupts an advancing Daukaus with a front kick, and he goes back to stalking the Philadelphia native down and throwing big strikes. Out of nowhere, Hawes ducks down, scoops Daukaus up and slams him down. Daukaus defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but he is immediately in danger for the Von Preux choke. Hawes recognizes this and presses his shoulder down, but he cannot finish it. Instead, Daukaus uses pure power to roll Hawes over and put him on his back. “Megatron” slides right into danger with a choke attempt from Daukaus, but he scrambles and gets out of harm’s way. When he gets to his knees, Daukaus takes his back. Hawes defends the hooks, powers back to his feet, and is quick to fight off a single leg takedown attempt from Daukaus. When he does not land it, Daukaus drops to his knees for a double, and that too comes up short. Hawes, while keeping himself upright, is landing short strikes to the body and head to make Daukaus think twice about his position. Hawes lifts Daukaus up with a knee to the chest, but he cannot get the Pennsylvanian off of him. Daukaus embraces the grind, pressing Hawes into the wire and putting his full body weight on his man. Both men try to get off elbows, but neither are successful. Daukaus sells out for a double, and Hawes sprawls against the cage and keeps his balance to fight off this attempt. Hawes introduces his knee to Daukaus’ torso, and the two separate with seconds to spare. Neither throw anything of note until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus

Round 2
The middleweights rush out of their corners to meet in the middle, but it does not take long for Hawes to push the pace and start backing Daukaus up against the fence. Daukaus tries to spring forward with a kick to the body, and Hawes interrupts him and lands a few punches. Daukaus swings a spinning strike, and Hawes does not completely avoid it. “Megatron” is suddenly rocked, and Daukaus lays into him with a salvo of punches to try to finish the job. Hawes gains the wherewithal to embrace the grappling, and even though he cannot get the takedown, he gains valuable time clearing his head. The two clinch briefly, and push off, where both men trade heavy shots. Daukaus gets the better of an exchange, and Hawes bends over and slams his right hand into the torso. A cracking right hand puts Daukaus on roller skates for a moment, and the Philadelphia native crashes in to clinch and try to take the fight down. Daukaus looks to trip his man down, attack singles or otherwise plant Hawes on his back, but the Sanford MMA fighter stands tall and looks frustrated. Hawes frames off to nail Daukaus with a stern elbow, and this forces Daukaus to backpedal quickly. Hawes parries a strike to fire back at Daukaus, and he mixes things up with body strikes and head shots. “Megatron” notices his body work is starting to make a difference, and he lifts up a knee to the body. The knee does not rise high enough, and it clunks straight into Daukaus’ cup. Thirty seconds are all Daukaus needs to catch his breath, and Hawes picks up where he left off with body shots. As he targets the body and again with impunity, Daukaus shoots in low for a takedown to stop this. Hawes stuffs it and pushes Daukaus back, where he drills Daukaus with a right hand and a front kick that nails Daukaus in the head when Daukaus bends over. Hawes hunts Daukaus down with strikes until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hawes

Round 3
Smith calls in the doctor between rounds to check a cut around Daukaus’ eye, but there is no concern and the fight clocks in normally. Hawes loads up on several big shots to begin the round, alternating between the head and body with punches and kicks. Hawes works the body, catches a body kick, and puts Daukaus on his back. Daukaus throws up his legs quickly to defend with a triangle choke off his back, but “Megatron” laughs it off, breaks the position and postures up in Daukaus’ guard. There may have been an eye poke for Hawes, but he is warned in passing as Daukaus complains. Daukaus opens and closes his guard to try to find a better way out, all while Hawes pounds on him with short strikes. Individually, they may not be especially damaging, but they are adding up quickly as time ticks off the clock. Daukaus punches the back of the head a few times in passing, and he grimaces when his own blood trickles into his eye. Hawes steps into half guard, where he begins to unleash a series of punches to try to pound Daukaus out. Daukaus twists and nearly climbs to his feet, but Hawes pushes him back over and continues to work him over with left hands. Smith asks for Daukaus to keep moving and defend himself, and Hawes uses this as an opportunity to start slamming down elbows. Hawes continues to batter Daukaus with punches and elbows, and once more, Hawes appears to scrape the eye with his fingers. Daukaus appears miserable as blood is in his eyes, Hawes relentlessly punches him, and he cannot do anything but get Hawes back to his full guard. The 10-second clapper leads Daukaus to close his guard to lock Hawes down, where he survives and does not take much more punishment until the fight is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)

The Official Result
Phil Hawes def. Kyle Daukaus via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but is not confident, noting Hawes is typically first-round-or-bust. He thinks Hawes needs to land an early knockout, otherwise Daukaus will take over. Brady likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and suggests live betting Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish in the first round. He mentions Hawes's last fight went to decision but that was an anomaly. He picks Hawes by first-round knockout.

Fight doesn't go to decision; live bet Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish first round
"I'm going to take cause to get that first round knockout might be a live betting situation but the prop i really do like is that fight doesn't go to decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes, arguing that Hawes is underappreciated and has been rushed against tough competition. He notes Hawes' D1 wrestling, freak athleticism, and one-punch knockout power. He believes Hawes learned from his past mistakes and will win a decision, as he did against Imavov. He views Daukaus as an average athlete and black belt, and thinks Hawes can lean on him and get takedowns.

"i think phil has is so underappreciated to a point where like when this guy was three and noah as a pro they put him in there with andrew sanchez like what"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The host favors Kyle Daukaus, believing his jiu-jitsu and cardio will be the difference. He expects Daukaus to survive Hawes' early power and then submit him later. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Daukaus by submission prop.

under 2.5 -150, Daukaus by sub +250
"i really like dalkist in the spot kind of surprised at the land movement as in terms of making it closer of a pickum fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes, noting that Daukaus is the slight favorite. He believes Daukaus's smothering clinch game and technical stand-up will overwhelm Hawes, who showed a hole in his last fight against the cage. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Daukaus winning the second and third rounds.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna be going with kyle alkaus here ... i just think it's a bad matchup"
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 31 of 54 57% 101 of 128 4 of 7 57% 0 0 11:06
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 93 61% 87 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 16 of 24 66% 41 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Nassourdine Imavov 0 9 of 19 47% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Phil Hawes 0 6 of 11 54% 36 of 44 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:15
Nassourdine Imavov 0 16 of 25 64% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Phil Hawes 0 9 of 19 47% 24 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:13
Nassourdine Imavov 0 32 of 49 65% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 31 of 54 57% 13 of 31 7 of 9 11 of 14 23 of 42 7 of 11 1 of 1
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 93 61% 39 of 71 14 of 17 4 of 5 29 of 62 27 of 30 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 16 of 24 66% 5 of 12 3 of 4 8 of 8 11 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1
Nassourdine Imavov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 11 4 of 5 2 of 3 4 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Phil Hawes 6 of 11 54% 3 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 3 4 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 16 of 25 64% 8 of 17 6 of 6 2 of 2 9 of 17 6 of 7 1 of 1
3 Phil Hawes 9 of 19 47% 5 of 13 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 16 1 of 3 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 32 of 49 65% 28 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 31 16 of 18 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi argues that Phil Hawes's early career was mismanaged, being thrown in with tough opponents too soon, but now he has matured and learned to pace himself. He highlights Hawes's D1 wrestling, one-punch knockout power, and improved defense. Levi believes Hawes will be too physical and explosive for Imavov, who fights with his hands down. He predicts a first-round knockout, noting that Imavov was pushed around by the smaller Jordan Williams.

first round knockout
"i'm going phil has to be a first round knockout"
WIN vs Jacob Malkoun
KO (punches) R1 0:18 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacob Malkoun 1 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacob Malkoun 1 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jacob Malkoun 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jacob Malkoun 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Phil Hawes vs. Jacob Malkoun

Round 1
In a matchup that might seem out of place on the main card among other bouts containing top-ranked fighters, exciting prospects Hawes (8-2, 0-0 UFC) and Malkoun (4-0, 0-0 UFC) nevertheless make their UFC debuts against one another at middleweight. Watching on to see which one pans out will be referee Jason Herzog, and a respectful glove touch begins the fight. Hawes pushes the pace early, chasing after Malkoun and landing a few serious punches. A right hand hurts Malkoun, and “Megatron” smells blood and unleashes a thunderous barrage of strikes. When Malkoun falls back to the fence, a right and a left hook put the Aussie not just down, but out cold as he falls face-first to the canvas. What a way to introduce yourself to the organization in your debut, doing so on one of the biggest of stages imaginable in lightning-quick fashion. Wow.

The Official Result
Phil Hawes def. Jacob Malkoun R1 0:18 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes, citing his power and finishing ability (75% of wins by KO). He notes Malkoun's lack of experience (4-0) and that Hawes has faced better competition. He predicts a first-round knockout, but advises staying away from betting at -260.

first round knockout
"give me haws here you know seen him face some pretty decent competition i think better competition than malcoon here um i think he's going to get him out of there in that first round probably a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Phil Hawes based on experience and athleticism, noting that Hawes has paid his dues with tough fights against Luis Taylor and Julian Marquez. He questions Malkoun's level of competition, as he is only 4-0 against subpar opponents. Levi thinks it might be a dog-or-pass situation at the betting window, but as a pure pick he goes with Hawes.

Dog or pass situation; can't lay -240 on Hawes but picks him based on experience
"i'll slightly lean with the experience of phil haas and the athleticism but i wouldn't be surprised either way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The host picks Phil Hawes but with low confidence, citing his athleticism and power. He notes that Hawes has cardio and durability concerns, while Malkoun is inexperienced. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds if the line is favorable.

under 2.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go with my [ __ ] to win by tko in round two"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes, highlighting his wrestling, power, and improved cardio. He notes that Hawes turned down a short-notice fight earlier, showing he takes his career seriously. He believes Hawes should win by using his wrestling to control Curtis, who is a welterweight moving up. He also mentions that Curtis has poor takedown defense and fades against wrestlers.

More more on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"phil has power phil has the wrestling phil should absolutely win this fight but chris could potentially stick and move his way to a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Curtis as a dog, citing his excellent cardio, technical boxing, and defensive wrestling. He notes Hawes is a fast starter who tires, and Curtis specializes in taking opponents into deep waters. He expects Curtis to win by late TKO, possibly round 3.

Curtis round 3
"we're going chris curtis"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes to win, stating that Hawes is on a different level than Chris Curtis. He notes that Hawes has knockout power, D1 wrestling, and has improved significantly since his early losses. Levi believes Curtis's only path to victory is a lucky knockout, and that Hawes can win by decision or knockout. He mentions that Curtis is a welterweight moving up and that historically, Curtis loses to UFC-caliber opponents.

decision or knockout
"give me a phil haas for the dub"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Jacob picks Phil Hawes, emphasizing that Curtis has awful takedown defense and is a pure boxer. He urges Hawes to wrestle rather than strike, as Curtis has real power. He believes Hawes will take Curtis down and get a TKO finish in the first round. He also likes Hawes in DraftKings for takedowns.

Less less on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"if you're phil halls just wrestle man just wrestle get your win get out of there... i'm telling you phil if you try to strike with this guy it could be a problem"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

The host picks Hawes to win by decision, but he is not confident enough to bet him at -320. He notes Hawes gets hurt in fights and Curtis has knockout power. He considers a small sprinkle on Curtis round 3 at +1800-2500.

Curtis round 3 (+1800-2500)
"i'm gonna go phil haas to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Curtis as a dog. He mentions Curtis's story and motivation, and believes Hawes is vulnerable if the fight goes past the first round. He also likes Curtis round 3 as a prop.

Curtis round 3
"curtis round three as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The Guru picks Phil Hawes, citing his size, reach, and power advantages over Chris Curtis, who is moving up from welterweight on short notice. He notes Hawes' KO wins and believes Curtis is not ready for this matchup. The Guru predicts a first-round KO for Hawes.

first round ko
"I'm going to be going with phillip hawes here um i get you can pick chris curtis but it's not smart to do so."