UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan Next Fight
Age 42
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 28
Height 6' 2"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Derek Brunson
3.51 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
3.14 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Edmen Shahbazyan
3.8 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.6 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
1.62 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Derek Brunson - Fight History
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 4:59 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 37 of 84 44% 43 of 90 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:30
Derek Brunson 1 71 of 115 61% 84 of 132 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 12 of 23 52% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:28
Derek Brunson 0 9 of 14 64% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Derek Brunson 1 62 of 101 61% 68 of 108 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 37 of 84 44% 27 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 30 of 74 3 of 5 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 71 of 115 61% 55 of 97 8 of 9 8 of 9 53 of 95 3 of 3 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 12 of 23 52% 11 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6
2 Dricus du Plessis 25 of 61 40% 16 of 50 9 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 62 of 101 61% 49 of 86 6 of 7 7 of 8 50 of 89 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
KO (elbows) R2 4:29 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 0 55 of 89 61% 61 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Derek Brunson 1 43 of 97 44% 48 of 103 3 of 13 23% 1 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derek Brunson 1 20 of 41 48% 25 of 46 2 of 9 22% 1 0 2:00
2 Jared Cannonier 0 39 of 54 72% 43 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Derek Brunson 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 55 of 89 61% 42 of 75 8 of 8 5 of 6 38 of 71 12 of 13 5 of 5
Derek Brunson 43 of 97 44% 25 of 69 12 of 20 6 of 8 41 of 89 1 of 4 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 16 of 35 45% 13 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 2 9 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 20 of 41 48% 12 of 30 6 of 9 2 of 2 18 of 35 1 of 3 1 of 3
2 Jared Cannonier 39 of 54 72% 29 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 43 5 of 6 5 of 5
Derek Brunson 23 of 56 41% 13 of 39 6 of 11 4 of 6 23 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Cannonier, believing he can defend Brunson's takedowns and land his power shots. He notes that even when taken down, Cannonier has knocked out high-level grapplers like Hermansson and Branch. He questions Brunson's chin and thinks Kelvin Gastelum, a better wrestler, couldn't keep Cannonier down.

"i've got to go with jared here i totally understand derrick brunson's wrestling is a threat but i like jared cannanier to defend those takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady believes Cannonier's takedown defense at middleweight is excellent (85%), and he will be able to stuff Brunson's takedowns and get back up if taken down. He notes Brunson is chinny and has been knocked out five times, and Cannonier has the power to knock him out. He predicts Cannonier will end Brunson's winning streak with a first round knockout.

Cannonier by first round knockout
"i think cannonier ends the streak here for brunson... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Brunson's wins are over grapplers and that Cannonier is a tough takedown. He highlights Cannonier's strength and cardio, and expects Brunson to get desperate and clipped. He thinks the line should be closer to -250.

"i think it's a no-brainer cannon your pick as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier to knock out Derek Brunson. He believes Cannonier's takedown defense has improved and that he will stuff Brunson's takedowns and put pressure on him. Levi notes that Brunson's opponents haven't been top-level and that Brunson has been knocked out multiple times. He is not crazy about the price and will probably pass on betting, but he thinks Cannonier wins.

pass on betting due to price
"I do think that cannonier stuffs these takedowns and knocks out derrick brunson"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier has excellent takedown defense and knockout power. Brunson's wins have come against opponents with cardio or grappling issues, and he gets rocked in every fight. Cannonier should stuff takedowns and land a knockout. Brunson's grappling advantage won't be enough to hold Cannonier down. Expect a second-round KO.

Cannonier by KO in round 2; hefty wager expected
"i really like jared kadenier in this spot you know even though brunson's averaging 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and even though he's riding this five-fight winning streak"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Paul thinks Brunson's recent wins are over stylistically favorable opponents and that Cannonier's takedown defense and power will be too much. He notes Cannonier stuffed takedowns from Whittaker and Gastelum, and that Brunson's chin is suspect. He expects Cannonier to knock Brunson out.

"i think this is when derek brunson's bad chin shows back up again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier by third-round KO, citing his takedown defense, cardio, and power. He believes Brunson will slow down after failing takedowns and get caught with a left hook.

third round ko left hook
"i'm gonna go with jared cannon in here i think he's gonna ko derek branson"
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 41 of 84 48% 101 of 145 3 of 6 50% 1 0 7:23
Darren Till 0 26 of 50 52% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 26 of 51 50% 51 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Darren Till 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 13 46% 37 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:56
Darren Till 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Derek Brunson 0 9 of 20 45% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 41 of 84 48% 37 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 6 9 of 36 3 of 3 29 of 45
Darren Till 26 of 50 52% 14 of 38 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 42 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 26 of 51 50% 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 16 1 of 1 22 of 34
Darren Till 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7
Darren Till 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 9 of 20 45% 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 4 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Till by knockout prop recommended; moneyline not recommended
"I am going to pick darren till by knockout darren brunson has been finished a handful of times i don't think he has the best chin and it only takes one shot from darren till"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

Live bet after round 1 for better price
"if you're going with darren till i think you wait on it i think that's the move you're going to get a much better price betting him lives"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Till

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Till by KO +135, Till round 3 +950, Till round 4 +1550, Till round 5 +2350, Till by decision +400
"I really like Till in this spot... I feel like he's gonna be prepared for this fight... I think he starts to take over and then eventually finds that knockout blow."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

Small shot on Brunson at +150
"i'm gonna take a shot on derrick brunson i mean even even you said it's like early on brunson's probably go you're gonna get a better price in live markets i'm not willing to wait i'll just take the guy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

first round tko
"i think darren till's got this one against derrick branson and i'll be honest with you if he doesn't beat derrick branson he'll never be anything"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland · Mar 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 43 of 93 46% 226 of 323 6 of 12 50% 1 0 16:55
Kevin Holland 0 36 of 74 48% 190 of 236 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 14 of 35 40% 63 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:29
Kevin Holland 0 3 of 6 50% 25 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 7 of 20 35% 16 of 30 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:09
Kevin Holland 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 11 54% 54 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:17
Kevin Holland 0 2 of 5 40% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Derek Brunson 0 8 of 12 66% 51 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:46
Kevin Holland 0 8 of 17 47% 47 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Derek Brunson 0 8 of 15 53% 42 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:14
Kevin Holland 0 10 of 20 50% 56 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 43 of 93 46% 28 of 74 7 of 10 8 of 9 14 of 43 10 of 10 19 of 40
Kevin Holland 36 of 74 48% 28 of 64 2 of 4 6 of 6 29 of 64 5 of 7 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 14 of 35 40% 12 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 28
Kevin Holland 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 2
Kevin Holland 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 1
3 Derek Brunson 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8
Kevin Holland 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Derek Brunson 8 of 12 66% 5 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 5 5 of 5 2 of 2
Kevin Holland 8 of 17 47% 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Derek Brunson 8 of 15 53% 2 of 8 2 of 3 4 of 4 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 10 of 20 50% 7 of 15 2 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 16 2 of 2 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland

Round 1
Quicker than expected, we have reached the main event of the evening. At stake is a possible place as a top contender, and two men on a combined eight-fight win streak look to end the other’s success. Brunson (21-7, 12-5 UFC) will face Holland (21-5, 8-2 UFC), and despite Holland’s ribbing, there is no bad blood as the two middleweights decide to touch gloves in front of referee Herb Dean. Holland reaches out with his hand, and he jumps back and gets kicked midair. Holland scores a fast front kick on the chin, and he ducks out of the way as Brunson is coming out throwing haymakers. Holland slips and falls to his back, and Brunson leaps on top to attack. “Trailblazer” ties Brunson up from his back with a body triangle, and Brunson does not mind as he lands a few punches from above. Holland slashes with elbows from below, but the far more emphatic punches are Brunson’s as they have an appreciable effect. Brunson works elbows as Holland looks to set up a submission, and the strikes break up the attempt without issue. Brunson throws heavy shots as he maintains heavy top pressure, and Holland pushes off only to get warned for nearly raking Brunson’s eye. Holland keeps his guard closed as Brunson pounds on him, and Holland talks to him and responds with short, hacking elbows. Holland boxes the ears and throws his legs up to try something, but Brunson ignores it and continues to hammer away on him. Holland is chattering away at him the entire time, and Brunson appears composed and lands heavy shots that silence Holland for the briefest of moments. Holland continues to banter and tell Brunson to stop covering his mouth, and Brunson continues to rain down powerful shots. Holland jumps back up, and Brunson pushes him away right at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 2
Between rounds, Holland has a conversation with former lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov who is sitting in the stands. Holland laughs and smiles, and the fight clocks back in again. Holland whiffs with a huge right hand and a head kick, and Brunson walks forward and gets tagged with a left hand counter. Holland shouts to Nurmagomedov to tell him when Brunson’s takedown comes, and Brunson crashes forward into a clinch for a takedown attempt. Holland breaks free and lazily spins around, and he drills Brunson with a nasty right hand. Holland clips him again with a few punches, and Brunson falls across the cage. Brunson aims for a desperation takedown, lifting Holland’s leg up high in the air. Holland lands a few punches with his leg raised, and Brunson pops him with a right hand and lands an emphatic takedown. Holland surrenders mount quickly, only to roll for a leglock and allow Brunson to climb back into top position. In half guard, Brunson targets an arm-triangle choke, and looks to pass to mount or side control so he can finish the submission. Holland rolls but is pushed down and flattened on the canvas, where Brunson puts his full body weight from the other side and the choke is tight. Holland continues to talk even while firmly in the danger zone, and Brunson is in side control applying the choke. Holland rides out the submission that would put lesser fighters out, and miraculously powers out of the position and kicks off to stand back to his feet. Holland laughs and turns around, and when he throws a kick, Brunson picks him up and slams him down. Holland keeps talking to people out of the cage, asking for advice to stop takedowns. Brunson, in full guard, works him over with punches as Holland slaps and paws at him from beneath. Brunson postures up to land a few strikes, and he kicks off right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 3
Holland is not dismayed by the results of the last rounds, and he comes out smiling and reaches out his left hand. Brunson flirts with a leg kick, and Holland smacks him with an overhand right counter. Brunson retreats and circles around the cage, and Holland walks him down and lands a crisp right hand. Brunson shoots in for a takedown, where he lifts Holland up and slams him down on the canvas. Holland throws his legs up for a triangle choke, and he turns it into an armbar but Brunson is savvy and able to get out of harm’s way. Holland is able to get Brunson to stand up, but Brunson wades through an upkick to lower himself back into Holland’s guard. Holland stays busy on his back with elbows and slaps, and Brunson’s workrate has slowed dramatically. Brunson sits up a few times with slowed punches, and Holland ties him up and looks to Dean for a standup. Holland ties up a body triangle and elbows Brunson a few times, but he does allow Brunson to land some punches as well. Brunson, whose strikes are slowing, lands some but not enough to stave off Dean. The shots are enough to keep the position, but Holland is consistently throwing palm strikes and elbows at high volume. Brunson grinds his elbow on Holland’s chin, and his ground-and-pound is sporadic but effective at racking up lengthy control time in the round. Brunson sits up to drop down a few punches, and he squeezes heavily from above while Holland tries and fails to kick off the fence. Brunson continues his grind-embracing approach until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 4
Holland opens up the round with a leg kick, and he backs away while Brunson pump-fakes with takedown attempts. Brunson lets loose a lazy leg kick, and two punches find their home on his chin as a response. Holland clips Brunson with a few punches, and Brunson falls forward to take the fight down. Holland backs off, and recklessly charges into the fray only to get tied up. Holland pushes him off, and gets pulled into a clinch where Brunson uppercuts him several times. Brunson pushes him into the fence and gets a takedown, where he lands in side control. Holland scrambles back to his feet, but Brunson drags him right back down and is in Holland’s closed guard. Holland is frustrated as Brunson calmly and methodically gives ground-and-pound, and when Brunson elbows him in the face, Holland loudly cheers for him. Dean asks Brunson to work a few times, and every time he says it, Brunson lands a punch or two from on top. Holland looks to kick off the fence, only to get pulled back away from it and eat strikes. Brunson’s top control is making Dean take a close look at standing the fight back up, as he claps for Brunson to continue working. Holland kicks off the fence and gets to his knee. He hops over to the fence, and Brunson follows him and mashes him into the wire. Brunson presses his full body weight into Holland’s chest, and he knees Holland a few times and puts his hands out of the cage for a moment. Dean admonishes him, and he apologizes. Holland fails to escape the clinch, and elects to slap Brunson a few times before the fourth round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 5
Holland offers a glove touch but Brunson ignores him to start off the final round. Holland picks his leg up to block a leg kick, and he stands still in the center of the cage while Brunson aims for angles. A front kick from Holland misses, and Brunson backs off and jabs him a few times. Brunson ducks down and clocks Holland with a left hand, and he may have hurt Holland but Holland wears it well and counters a leg kick with a left hand. Holland catches Brunson on the way in with a left hand, and when he leaps forward with a hook, Brunson ducks down and clinches up to take the fight down. The two land punches to the body in the clinch, and Holland knees him a few times for good measure. One of Holland’s strikes opened up a cut on Brunson’s eye, and Holland smells the blood and is excited by it. “Trailblazer” surges forward and takes Brunson down, and he is now the first fighter in UFC history to land a takedown on Brunson. Holland celebrates his work, but Brunson ties him up and locks him down so that little effective ground-and-pound can be levied. Holland postures up and lands a few punches, before lifting Brunson up to slam him down as if he were channeling his inner Quinton Jackson. Dean tells Holland that he will stand him up if he does not do anything, so he sits up and lands some shots. Brunson kicks him off, and he rushes forward for a takedown of his own to grind out the talkative kickboxer. Holland defends the first attempt but cannot stop the redoubled effort, as he slowly descends to the canvas where Brunson is lording over him punching him in the face. Dean already tells Brunson to do something, and Brunson does just that with elbows and punches. Holland pushes off the fence and giggles at Brunson, but Brunson is holding the position and winning the fight because of this strategy. Holland kicks off, and he walks away upset that he lost. With 10 seconds left, Holland appears to admit defeat as he turns his back and waves his hand in disgust. Brunson lands a punch as Holland is not paying attention, so Holland explodes with a flying knee and a hammerfist on the way down, and the final horn blares to end this 25-minute affair. The fight card comes to an inglorious end, but there is no ill will between the two middleweights. A big pay-per-view event comes over the horizon next week, although it has lost some luster as featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski tested positive for COVID-19 and the fight is off – this is likely why the Riddell-Gillespie fight was scratched on tonight’s card. We will be here for UFC 260, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)

The Official Result
Derek Brunson def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (49-45, 49-46, 49-46)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant, acknowledging the line is off and Brunson is the value side. He notes Holland has red flags in his takedown defense and cardio, but Brunson has been knocked out five times and may struggle to hold Holland down. Brady expects Holland to knock out Brunson in the second round, as Holland is dangerous off his back and has a steel chin. He says the KO prop at +160 is not a bad look.

Kevin Holland wins by KO in round 2; KO prop +160
"i'm going to take kevin hall to win by knockout i'm going to say he's going to be the sixth person to knock out derek brunson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2021 (fight day)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, citing his creativity and unquantifiable skills. He acknowledges Brunson's improved composure but believes Holland's experience and talent will prevail. He notes Holland's overconfidence as a concern but still expects a spectacular finish. He mentions Holland's past injury in the Darren Stewart fight as a possible excuse for that poor performance.

Holland by something spectacular
"i'm gonna go with kevin holland to catch him with something opportunistic"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Brunson has rejuvenated his career at Sanford MMA, becoming more disciplined and conservative. He should have a wrestling advantage and can control Holland against the cage or on the ground. Holland's cardio is untested in five-round fights, and he showed flaws against Darren Stewart. Brunson's chin narrative is overblown; he's been more careful. Brunson by decision is the pick, with the decision prop at +365 offering value.

Brunson by decision (+365), over 2.5 rounds (-130)
"I like brunson man i like this brunson since he's moved over to stanford mma"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to beat Derek Brunson. He believes Holland has shown a good jiu-jitsu game off his back, which previous Brunson opponents lacked, and can work early for a TKO. He notes Brunson's tendency to crumble under trash talk, as seen against Israel Adesanya, and expects Brunson to shoot desperately and get caught. However, he admits concern because Brunson has a knack for pulling off upsets.

"kevin holland is going to beat derrick branson because derrick branson can't fight"
TKO (punches) R3 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 88 of 145 60% 107 of 164 4 of 8 50% 0 0 3:06
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 35 of 72 48% 38 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 29 of 50 58% 32 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:59
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 24 of 41 58% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 54 of 85 63% 69 of 100 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:01
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 11 of 31 35% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Derek Brunson 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 88 of 145 60% 58 of 106 15 of 21 15 of 18 53 of 95 9 of 17 26 of 33
Edmen Shahbazyan 35 of 72 48% 17 of 50 18 of 22 0 of 0 26 of 63 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 29 of 50 58% 12 of 29 8 of 10 9 of 11 24 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 1
Edmen Shahbazyan 24 of 41 58% 11 of 24 13 of 17 0 of 0 16 of 33 8 of 8 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 54 of 85 63% 42 of 69 7 of 11 5 of 5 27 of 44 5 of 12 22 of 29
Edmen Shahbazyan 11 of 31 35% 6 of 26 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Round 1
We have rapidly reached the main event, which is a three-round middleweight tilt as two knockout artists in Brunson (20-7, 11-5 UFC) and Shahbazyan (11-0, 4-0 UFC) come to blows. Sharing 20 knockout wins across their 31 career triumphs, referee Herb Dean may have his work cut out for him in this abbreviated affair moved to the headliner spot on short notice. They have no interest in touching gloves, as Shahbazyan marches forward and takes a punch to the body. Brunson swings and misses with a low kick, and a body kick comes up mostly short. Shahbazyan leans down to land a punch to the body, and then goes for another as Brunson backs off. They come together, and Shahbazyan clips Brunson with a short check hook. Shahbazyan changes levels briefly, and Brunson grabs hold of his neck, so “The Golden Boy” breaks free and disengages. Shahbazyan whips a head kick up high that comes up shy of the mark, and a right hand that follows catches Brunson standing. Brunson tries to get a few more kicks off, and Shahbazyan circles to his left and sneaks in a left hand. Brunson charges at him with a few punches, only to change levels and go after a takedown. Shahbazyan rips a few elbows to the side of Brunson’s head, but Brunson tosses him down anyway. Shahbazyan tries to get back to his feet, and avoids damage while getting to his knees. When he stands up, Brunson mashes him on the fence, so Shahbazyan delivers a big right hand that forces a break. Shahbazyan loads up on a few more rights, and Brunson backs off to shoot for a takedown. Shahbazyan nails him a few more times, and Brunson wobbles but keeps his composure as he eats these power shots. Shahbazyan ends the night well with a groin kick, and Brunson shrugs it off so there is not much of a pause. Brunson rushes in with looping hooks and elbows, and Shahbazyan backs away to reconsider his position. Brunson comes forward to implement a takedown, and Shahbazyan catches him on the chin with a knee. Brunson is not concerned, and he keeps pushing heavy, but Shahbazyan shoves him away. Brunson leads with a knee and a left hand, so Shahbazyan gives it back with a knee to the body and a right of his own. Brunson slaps low with a kick, and goes to the body, so Shahbazyan slings a few punches and an elbow as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 2
Perhaps surprising to some, we see a second round. Shahbazyan leads off with a head kick, and Brunson eats it like a steak and tries to throw back. Shahbazyan counters that offense with a right hook, and Brunson returns fire with a left hook. Shahbazyan overextends himself with a looping hook, allowing Brunson to take his leg and lift him up, setting Shahbazyan on his back. Shahbazyan springs right back up without effort, and in the clinch, we hear someone landed a cup shot. Neither pay it any mind, and they separate, which allows Brunson to kick to the body. When Shahbazyan advances, Brunson holds his fingers outstretched and jabs Shahbazyan in the eye, so Dean pauses the fight. On the break, Dean warns both fighters to keep track of their fingers, and Brunson sticks out a right hand to re-introduce it to Shahbazyan’s face. Shahbazyan digs him to the body with a kick that nearly makes Brunson double over, and as he tries to pour it on, Brunson counters him and bullies him against the fence. Brunson separates to string together a heavy series of punches, and he punctuates it with a knee. Shahbazyan loads up on a pair of enormous right hands, and they whiz by the bleach blonde hair of Brunson. Shahbazyan’s punches are more loose now, and his one-two is labored as Brunson ignores it. Brunson pressures him against the fence again, and lands a few shots while keeping his weight on the undefeated fighter. Brunson scoops the legs out and puts Shahbazyan down, where he drops down some powerful hammerfists as he takes side control. Shahbazyan rolls to his stomach, and Brunson keeps him trapped with punches, pounding on him while Shahbazyan twists and turns. Brunson is in half guard raining down punches, and Shahbazyan eats practically all of them as he is trapped on his back. Brunson postures up to hack at Shahbazyan with a nasty elbow, and Shahbazyan’s eyebrow is split wide open. The horn sounds, and when Shahbazyan sits on his stool between rounds, he nearly falls off as Dean calls in the doctor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brunson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Brunson

Round 3
Shahbazyan may be hurt, but the cut is not in a bad enough spot to end the fight, so he requests to continue. Brunson comes out firing with a leg kick and looks much fresher, as he chases Shahbazyan around the cage.
Brunson leaps forward with a few reaching punches, and he rips Shahbazyan off his feet and starts clubbing him in the face with sledgehammers. Only a few more need to come down before Dean has seen enough
, and Brunson has now handed “The Golden Boy” the first loss of his career in devastating fashion. That spells the end of this shortened fight night, so see you next week for more action!

The Official Result
Derek Brunson def. Edmen Shahbazyan R3 0:26 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Brunson has been knocked out five times and is past his prime at 36, while Shahbazyan is a young 22-year-old beast with a high ceiling. He believes Shahbazyan will come out aggressively and touch Brunson's chin early, ending the fight in the first round. He mentions the line is off at -345 and suggests looking at inside the distance props.

inside the distance (-265), first round knockout
"i just see uh shabazzian ending this in the first round touching brunson on the chin"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel picks Shahbazyan, praising his complete skill set including boxing, grappling, and takedowns. He notes that Brunson leads with his chin up and that Shahbazyan throws straight, disciplined shots. He expects a first-round knockout, citing Shahbazyan's 10 first-round finishes and his handling of Brad Tavares.

first round knockout
"i say he comes out here and gets the knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

The host picks Brunson despite being an underdog, citing concerns about Shahbazyan's cardio and lack of experience in later rounds. He notes that Shahbazyan looked poor in the third round against Darren Stewart and that Brunson's wrestling and grinding style could neutralize Shahbazyan's early power. He also mentions the smaller cage favoring Brunson's clinch game and that the line has moved too far in Shahbazyan's favor.

under 1.5 rounds not mentioned; host says 'dog or pass' and prefers Brunson at +270
"I'm going to go with brunson here i'm going to go with brunson via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The host picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by brutal KO in the first round. He notes Shahbazyan's calmness, distance control, and takedown defense, while criticizing Derek Brunson's tendency to come forward with his chin exposed and get knocked out by top competition. He mentions Brunson's pattern of beating lower-level guys and losing to rising contenders, and predicts a straight right or uppercut finish.

first round KO, straight right or uppercut finish
"shabazian gets the job done by brutal ko i think he gets it by a straight right right on the bottom right on the button as brunson comes in"
WIN vs Ian Heinisch
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 81 of 185 43% 102 of 207 2 of 10 20% 0 0 2:13
Ian Heinisch 0 58 of 143 40% 65 of 150 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 16 of 42 38% 27 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:58
Ian Heinisch 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 29 of 55 52% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Ian Heinisch 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derek Brunson 0 36 of 88 40% 40 of 92 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:37
Ian Heinisch 0 26 of 66 39% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 81 of 185 43% 51 of 142 26 of 37 4 of 6 69 of 170 7 of 9 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 58 of 143 40% 37 of 114 16 of 23 5 of 6 49 of 130 8 of 12 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 16 of 42 38% 10 of 35 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 19 of 43 44% 8 of 31 7 of 8 4 of 4 14 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 29 of 55 52% 21 of 41 7 of 11 1 of 3 23 of 48 1 of 1 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 13 of 34 38% 7 of 22 6 of 11 0 of 1 11 of 31 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Derek Brunson 36 of 88 40% 20 of 66 14 of 20 2 of 2 34 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 26 of 66 39% 22 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 1 24 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 56 of 94 59% 65 of 103 4 of 9 44% 0 0 3:17
Elias Theodorou 0 65 of 170 38% 87 of 194 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 14 of 24 58% 16 of 26 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:23
Elias Theodorou 0 16 of 42 38% 25 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Derek Brunson 0 22 of 37 59% 26 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Elias Theodorou 0 25 of 68 36% 34 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derek Brunson 0 20 of 33 60% 23 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:21
Elias Theodorou 0 24 of 60 40% 28 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 56 of 94 59% 34 of 62 11 of 17 11 of 15 45 of 82 6 of 7 5 of 5
Elias Theodorou 65 of 170 38% 16 of 88 27 of 34 22 of 48 53 of 150 12 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 14 of 24 58% 11 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 15 3 of 4 5 of 5
Elias Theodorou 16 of 42 38% 1 of 17 11 of 12 4 of 13 9 of 33 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 22 of 37 59% 10 of 21 6 of 7 6 of 9 20 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Elias Theodorou 25 of 68 36% 5 of 33 9 of 13 11 of 22 24 of 63 1 of 5 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 20 of 33 60% 13 of 23 3 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elias Theodorou 24 of 60 40% 10 of 38 7 of 9 7 of 13 20 of 54 4 of 6 0 of 0
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
TKO (knees and punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 3 of 14 21% 9 of 23 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:34
Derek Brunson 3 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 3 of 14 21% 9 of 23 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:34
Derek Brunson 3 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 3 of 14 21% 2 of 11 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 13 of 23 56% 9 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 3 11 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 3 of 14 21% 2 of 11 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 13 of 23 56% 9 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 3 11 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 1
Edmen Shahbazyan - Fight History
SCHED vs Brendan Allen
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The host predicts Brendan Allen to win by submission in round two, likely with a rear naked choke. He notes that Shahbazyan is dangerous in round one with knockout power, but after that, Allen's grappling advantage takes over. He mentions that Allen has good takedowns and a strong back take, and that Shahbazyan's takedown defense fades as the fight goes on.

submission in round two, rear naked choke
"I'm going to take Brendan Allen to win by submission in round two, probably with a rear naked choke."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

AJ picks Allen by submission, emphasizing Allen's elite grappling and wrestling advantage over Shahbazyan. He acknowledges Shahbazyan's striking skills but believes Allen will get the fight to the ground and submit him. AJ notes Allen's recent wins over top competition and expects a submission victory.

Allen by submission; over 1.5 rounds minus 185
"I'm going with the Brendan Allen side. He should have such an edge over Edmond Shazian in grappling... I think Allen's winning by submission."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

AJ believes Brendan Allen will dominate with his superior grappling, taking the fight to the ground and submitting Edmen Shahbazyan. He notes Allen's striking is decent enough to close distance, and Shahbazyan's ground game remains a question mark. AJ sees this as a clear grappling mismatch.

Brendan Allen by submission +200 (explicitly mentioned as prop), Allen submission (implied)
"I think Brendan Allen should be able to take home a bit of a dominant grappling match type display."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Angelo picks Brendan Allen, citing his clear advantage in wrestling and takedowns. He notes that Shahbazyan's takedown defense is a huge hole, and as long as Allen sticks to the game plan of getting takedowns and keeping him on the ground, he wins. He is slightly concerned about Allen's recent training camp comments but assumes he is ready.

"Brendan Allen has the very clear advantage in the wrestling department. Huge hole for Edmond Shabbazian."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Big Brady picks Brendan Allen to win by second round submission. He is not impressed with Shahbazyan's recent wins and notes that Shahbazyan quits when grappled. He thinks Allen should take him down and submit him, but worries about Allen's fight IQ and tendency to strike. He believes Allen is the better fighter and should win.

by second round submission
"I'm going to go Allen here. I'm going to go second round submission for Brendan Allen"
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Brendan Allen fights like an idiot and often sells fights, as seen against Chris Curtis and Anthony Hernandez. Edmen Shahbazyan has knockout power and will likely chin Allen in round two. Shahbazyan is a huge underdog but has been training takedown defense at Extreme Couture.

KO in round 2; underdog pick
"I'm going with Shabbazian round two knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody confidently picks Brendan Allen, arguing that Allen's wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Shahbazyan as the fight progresses. He notes Shahbazyan is dangerous in the first round but fades, and Allen has proven cardio and durability against top competition. He sees Allen as a -600 fighter at -200.

"Free flop, I got Brandon Allen. He may be on the top line... he's only minus 200 and I think he could look like he's minus 600."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Brendan Allen is picked because he has better versatility and can grapple with Edmen Shahbazyan. The host is not sold on Shahbazyan's resurgence, noting his wins over Andre Muniz and Andre Petroski are not impressive. Allen's ground and pound and submission skills are highlighted, though he makes mistakes. The host expects Allen to win by decision, using cage control and clinch work.

Brendan Allen wins by decision; line opened at -350 and has moved; expects line to drop further
"I'm still going to pick Brendan Allen in this fight. ... I'm just not completely sold on Edmond Shabbazi and taking this big of a jump into the division."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Allen is a top-five middleweight with a clear grappling advantage. Shahbazyan has been submitted by lesser grapplers and hasn't faced anyone near Allen's level. Allen should get a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I think it's a Brennan Allen first round submission."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Lucrative James acknowledges Brendan Allen is the better all-round fighter and would pick him if forced, but sees value in Edmen Shahbazyan as a plus-money underdog. He notes Shahbazyan's knockout power and Allen's questionable durability and fight IQ, especially after Allen's brawl with Marvin Vettori. He believes Shahbazyan's best path is a round 1 or 2 KO, and that the betting value lies on the underdog.

Edmen Shahbazyan via KO; may bet on KO in round 1 or 2 props
"I might bet on Edmond Shabbaz in here. And Edmond Shabbazian is the moneyline side in my opinion. He's the value side in my opinion. He's the betting pick in my opinion, not the outright pick."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Allen has superior durability and cardio; he should weather Shahbazyan's early striking and then take over in later rounds with grappling and body kicks. Shahbazyan tends to fade, and Allen will likely get a rear-naked choke in round 2.

Allen by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 2
"I think Allen will eventually come through with one of those spots. I think Shabbazian's best way of winning this fight is round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul picks Brendan Allen but is hesitant due to Shahbazyan's first-round danger. He agrees Allen will take over in rounds 2 and 3, but is not getting heavily invested pre-fight. He suggests live betting Allen after the first round for better value.

Live betting after first round
"Not one that I really want to get completely overinvested in pre flop... Edmond scares me a little bit in round one."
WIN vs André Muniz
KO R1 4:58 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edmen Shahbazyan 1 25 of 50 50% 26 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
André Muniz 0 15 of 38 39% 17 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 1 25 of 50 50% 26 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
André Muniz 0 15 of 38 39% 17 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edmen Shahbazyan 25 of 50 50% 20 of 45 3 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 27 1 of 2 12 of 21
André Muniz 15 of 38 39% 6 of 20 2 of 10 7 of 8 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 25 of 50 50% 20 of 45 3 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 27 1 of 2 12 of 21
André Muniz 15 of 38 39% 6 of 20 2 of 10 7 of 8 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Muniz vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-290), Muniz (+235)

Round 1
It’s submission vs. striking in this next phrase of the prelims, with both athletes sporting finish rates north of 75% in this middleweight affair. Still just 27 years of age with a few camps behind him at Xtreme Couture, Shahbazyan (15-5, 8-5 UFC) is ready to turn the corner and become “The Golden Boy.” To get there, he will have to surpass grappling ace Muniz (24-7, 6-3 UFC), who no one will forget when he snapped the arm of “Jacare” Souza with a stellar armbar. Referee Mark Smith will be here for the match wherever it takes place, and the 185ers bump gloves to introduce themselves.
Shahbazyan moves to the center of the Octagon and blocks a quick head kick that leads things off, and he hops away from a subsequent sweeping calf kick. Muniz goes high with another kick, and Shahbazyan pitches a calf kick back his way. They jab at one another, and Muniz misses on a short combination of punches. Shahbazyan scores a body kick and takes a low kick on the way out, with the two seemingly trading blows one after the other. Muniz spins with a wheel kick, and when he plants his feet, he shoots for a takedown. Shahbazyan forces him to stand up and knees him in the torso, bullying the grappler against the fence and staying tight to him. Muniz falls to the ground to pursue a leglock, and Shahbazyan steps out of it and makes Muniz stand. Muniz gets back up and is ready to throw hands, and his head kick after bangs into the guard. Shahbazyan responds with a single solid left hook, and he splits the gloves with a right.
Muniz stays committed to body kicks, and he uses one to close the distance only for the younger fighter to push him towards the fencing. Muniz separates without much effort, and he defends a high kick he knows is coming. The Brazilian plants his heel on Shahbazyan’s side from a back kick, and his swinging hooks miss the mark by a matter of feet. Muniz catches a kick and tries to trip Shahbazyan up, but he abandons that and just slugs his way closer. Muniz goes after the calf and swings it out for a moment with Shahbazyan, who takes a right hand and is shaken up for a moment. Shahbazyan plants his feet and takes a body kick, so he backpedals as Muniz puts it on him. Muniz manages to drag Shahbazyan to the floor, and although he cannot keep him there, he does land a kick. Muniz opens up with big punches, and Shahbazyan clips him with a left hook that puts the Brazilian on ice skates.
The sheer momentum of Shahbazyan and his swinging left hands bowl Muniz to the floor, and he starts battering the downed man with punches and elbows. Muniz turns to his side to defend the beating, but Smith is watching closely and not seeing much intelligent defense. As Muniz appears to lose consciousness from the drubbing, Smith steps in to call a halt to the match before the buzzer
. It takes some time for Muniz to come to, but he manages to sit and stand up, and his team and medical professionals seat him on a stool to further recover. Meanwhile, that is three wins in a row for Shahbazyan, who may be knocking on the door of the top 15 again.

The Official Result
Edmen Shahbazyan def. Andre Muniz R1 4:58 via KO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Angelo sees this as a striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Edmen's striking advantage is wider than André's grappling advantage, and that Edmen can win by keeping the fight on the feet. He notes André's chin is starting to fail and that Edmen has good takedown defense when not tired. He also thinks the fight will not go the distance.

Fight does not go the distance.
"I think Edmond Shabbazian wins this fight... Whoever wins this fight is going to do so in dominant fashion. I think the best bet here is the fight does not go the distance."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady believes André Muniz has a weak chin, citing his recent knockout losses and a delayed reaction to a shot. He notes that Muniz has been knocked out six times and all his losses are inside the distance. He thinks Shahbazyan has power and will knock out Muniz, likely in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout for Shahbazyan.

Edmen Shahbazyan by first round knockout.
"Give me Evan Shabbazian to win. And Evan Shabbazian to win by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
André Muniz

Connor picks Muniz to keep it interesting, seeing a path where Muniz sucks Shahbazyan into a grappling hell early on, making Shahbazyan fight well but have a miserable time, leading to his typical panic and collapse. He notes that Muniz's aggressive grappling could overwhelm Shahbazyan, especially if Muniz commits to wrestling from the start.

Shahbazyan opened at -175, currently -310; Muniz opened at +150, currently +260. Connor comments: 'Crazy considering how often Shabazzian has just self-destructed. It should be close.'
"I'll take Muniz just to keep it interesting. I can totally see the fight that you laid out. I can also see Muniz sucking Shabazzian into hell."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The host is skeptical of Shahbazyan as a chalky favorite due to gas tank issues, but still expects him to walk Munz onto a big shot and win by knockout.

"I'll always be skeptical in terms of playing Shahbazyan as a chalky favorite given his gas tank issues at times... I still think Shahbazyan will be able to walk Munz onto a big shot and win this fight by knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan, believing his youth, power, and takedown defense will be key. He notes André Muniz's vulnerability to strikes and poor decision-making. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Edmen Shahbazyan getting this one done by TKO in the first round over Andre Muniz."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Zane picks Shahbazyan because he believes Muniz is a pure grappler who is not good at staying in control of a fight, unlike the fighters who have previously broken Shahbazyan (e.g., Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson). He notes that Muniz is a risky, chancy grappler who can get a quick submission but is a mess standing, and Shahbazyan is a rangy, sharp shooter with good striking. However, he acknowledges the potential for Shahbazyan to meltdown.

Shahbazyan opened at -175, currently -310; Muniz opened at +150, currently +260. Zane comments: 'Crazy considering how often Shabazzian has just self-destructed. It should be close.'
"I'm going to take Shabazzian here because like I say, I once again, I just think that these kinds of this kind of pure grappler who is not that good at staying in control of a fight... I just don't …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edmen Shahbazyan 1 53 of 136 38% 58 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Andre Petroski 0 34 of 84 40% 34 of 84 2 of 6 33% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andre Petroski 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:04
2 Edmen Shahbazyan 0 18 of 50 36% 18 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andre Petroski 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
3 Edmen Shahbazyan 1 20 of 45 44% 25 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Andre Petroski 0 9 of 23 39% 9 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edmen Shahbazyan 53 of 136 38% 37 of 103 11 of 23 5 of 10 50 of 129 0 of 0 3 of 7
Andre Petroski 34 of 84 40% 15 of 52 13 of 17 6 of 15 33 of 82 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 15 of 41 36% 12 of 30 2 of 8 1 of 3 15 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 13 of 27 48% 5 of 13 4 of 6 4 of 8 12 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Edmen Shahbazyan 18 of 50 36% 10 of 37 7 of 9 1 of 4 18 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 12 of 34 35% 7 of 24 5 of 7 0 of 3 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Edmen Shahbazyan 20 of 45 44% 15 of 36 2 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 38 0 of 0 3 of 7
Andre Petroski 9 of 23 39% 3 of 15 4 of 4 2 of 4 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Petroski vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-185), Petroski (+154)

Round 1
As aggressive as ever, middleweight wunderkind Shahbazyan (14-5, 7-5 UFC) knows it only takes one for him to put an opponent away. He draws bearded grappler Petroski (13-3, 8-2 UFC), who has had his chin checked in the past but can also grind his way to victory if need be. This two-outcome match draws officiating from referee Kevin MacDonald, who bears witness to the fitness of the modern warrior. Before BOOM, another hit is landed, they bump fists. You’re gonna feel it. This is the ultimate. Both men start fast, trading hands in the center of the cage. Petroski lets go with a low kick and a level change, the latter likely to make Shahbazyan think about the possibility. When Shahbazyan advances, Petroski clips him with a short right hand that makes Shahbazyan check his nose. The two get stuck in neutral for a time when presenting in boxing range, and Shahbazyan breaks up the lull in action with a body kick. As Petroski bounces in, Shahbazyan measures him with a sharp right hand. Shahbazyan pecks out with a jab, but Petroski lands heavy on the calf with a kick. The boos begin to grow louder as the two do not engage with much, and Petroski tries to engage his grappling and is turned away for his efforts. Shahbazyan gets behind his jab, pecking it out to fluster Petroski. A jab and a left hook stings the Renzo Gracie Philly product, and Petroski tries and fails to take the fight down again. A quick left from Shahbazyan hurts Petroski, who bounces off the fence to gather himself. Shahbazyan wraps a right hand around the guard, and he deposits his shin on the midsection as the sound of it echoes through the building. Shahbazyan chases around his opponent with a few punches until the tepid round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 2
As the second round begins, Petroski still cannot find his way in to attack. This allows Shahbazyan to peck and poke at him with jabs, front kicks and anything else to maintain his distance. Shahbazyan pushes off and a finger slides into his eye socket, and MacDonald calls time and tells Petroski to take all the time he needs. With fighters too often hurrying back before they are fully recovered, MacDonald’s request is a solid one. Nevertheless, Petroski waves things back in after 45 seconds, in which he immediately reintroduces himself with a blistering right hand over the top. Shahbazyan does not let him land a second time, instead disrupting his attacks with his flustering jab. Petroski manages to get his hands on the younger fighter, but cannot ground him and settles for a body kick on the way out. Petroski strings together three punches, the third that really gets Shahbazyan’s attention. Shahbazyan loads up with an overhand right, and Petroski’s response of a one-two is effective. Shahbazyan eventually boots his foe in the belly after some time of inaction, and he doubles up on it as Petroski frowns. Shahbazyan skims the top of the head with his foot, and he digs a right to the midsection while Petroski backpedals. They meet in the middle and trade power punches, with Shahbazyan goes to the body and shaking up Petroski to the head. Petroski circles to either direction to try to get his wits about him, remaining safe until the round ends. Once again, the crowd expresses itself about the lackluster match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 3
The middleweights reach Round 3 and tap hands together, and both punch one another square in the face. As they come together, they clack heads, and Shahbazyan shrugs and signals to MacDonald, who is already calling time. They resume after a few seconds, where Petroski thumps the front leg with a kick and has his beard tested with a right hand. Petroski dives after a single, putting “The Golden Boy” on his seat. Shahbazyan climbs right back to his feet and wipes his feet on the mat, before tossing his cleaned ball of his foot towards his adversary. Shahbazyan rattles off two punches down the middle, swaying and dodging the inevitable counter. Petroski moves from side to side as the audience turns on them once again, even as Shahbazyan slaps the raised guard with a head kick. Petroski pounds the chest of his opponent with his shin, and he gets driven back by a right hand. Shahbazyan unloads with a mighty body kick, slamming it on Petroski’s left arm, and Petroski clutches it. Shahbazyan aims another one to the same spot, his arm possibly damaged, and he goes down from the kick. After dropping down a few punches, Shahbazyan elects to let Petroski back up. “The Golden Boy” goes high with a kick to the same potentially hurt limb, and he moves away from a head kick aimed at him. Petroski chains a single into a step-in knee, and Shahbazyan pushes him back with a right hand. Shahbazyan flicks out his jab to solid effect, skirting away from a low kick and aiming two kicks back. Shahbazyan works over the front leg with another kick, and he connects with a one-two. Petroski marches his man down despite a head kick aimed at him, swinging once and missing wide. Once more, the fighters go the distance tonight, and fans do not love what they witnessed for the last 15 minutes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan (30-27 Shahbazyan)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan (30-27 Shahbazyan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan (30-27 Shahbazyan)

The Official Result
Edmen Shahbazyan def. Andre Petroski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Angelo leans Edmen because he is the better athlete and hits hard, and Andre's chin is suspect. He notes that even if Andre gets takedowns, Edmen can survive and have an edge on the feet. However, he feels the odds are a trap and expects a close fight.

"I am though going to slightly lean Edmond here because Andre just isn't that dangerous on the ground."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan by first-round knockout. He notes that Shahbazyan has a 7.5-minute window to finish before his cardio fades, and that Petroski has been knocked out in all his losses. He believes Shahbazyan will land a knockout early, but suggests a live bet on Petroski if the fight goes past the first round.

first round knockout; live bet on Petroski if fight hits second round
"I'm going to say Shibbazian. Shamazi wins this fight by by first round knockout, but it could get interesting uh as always if the fight gets extended."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Connor picks Shahbazyan but is very hesitant, calling the fight a coin flip. He notes that Shahbazyan's problems are fundamental and unlikely to go away, but that Petroski's tendency to gas and his clumsy striking make him vulnerable to an early finish. Connor points out that Shahbazyan's best chance is to knock Petroski out in the first round, as Petroski has been finished early before. If Petroski survives, his durability and grinding style could break Shahbazyan.

Shahbazyan opened at -213, now -169; Petroski opened at +162, now +155.
"I'll take shabazian as well but you know yeah but it's i'm interested in the fight honestly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

Petroski's grappling and power punching will thwart Shahbazyan's striking. He will pin him against the cage, drag him to the ground, and possibly find a submission in the second or third round, but ultimately win on the scorecards.

submission in round 2 or 3
"I'm going to have to lean with the grappling of Petroski... maybe finding a submission in the second or third round, but I'll ultimately lean on Petroski to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Petroski

The Guru initially wavers but ultimately picks Andre Petroski by submission in the third round. He acknowledges Shahbazyan is the better martial artist with superior standup, but fears Shahbazyan will 'fumble' again. He expects Petroski to implement his wrestling and get a late arm-triangle choke, calling it a coin flip.

Andre Petroski by submission, round 3
"I'm gonna go with Andre Petroski out wrestling Edmond Shbazian. That's what I'm going to go with. I'm going to go with a late rounds arm triangle submission win for Andre Petroski in the third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Zane picks Shahbazyan but is hesitant, acknowledging that Shahbazyan's mental fragility is a major concern. He thinks Petroski is prone to getting overloaded early and that Shahbazyan's power and sharpness in round one could finish him. However, Zane notes that if Petroski survives the first round, he likely wins by grinding Shahbazyan down with wrestling and pressure, as Shahbazyan tends to collapse when his initial blitz fails.

Shahbazyan opened at -213, now -169; Petroski opened at +162, now +155. Zane expects the odds to get closer.
"I think i'll go with shabazian as well patrosky seems ripe to get overloaded and uh just chin checked very early"
WIN vs Dylan Budka
KO R1 1:35 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edmen Shahbazyan 1 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dylan Budka 0 1 of 16 6% 1 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 1 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dylan Budka 0 1 of 16 6% 1 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edmen Shahbazyan 7 of 15 46% 5 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 3
Dylan Budka 1 of 16 6% 1 of 12 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 7 of 15 46% 5 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 3
Dylan Budka 1 of 16 6% 1 of 12 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dylan Budka vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-355), Budka (+280)

Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night” slot, a .500 fighter with 10 UFC outings goes up against one that has fought and lost twice. Momentum may not be the word of the day here, but the terms ‘pink slip’ or ‘destruction’ could be. Hoping to keep their jobs, Shahbazyan (13-5, 5-5 UFC) aims to follow the successes that David Gladfelter and Cesar Almeida had against Budka (7-4, 0-2 UFC). Keep tabs on the middleweights is referee Chris Tognoni, who stands by as the fighters engage in a clap of hands. Shahbazyan walks forward, through a right hand that catches him fairly cleanly, so he can flick out a pair of jabs. Budka lets fly a body kick, and he parries Shahbazyan coming forward. Budka drives forward behind a pair of jabs, and Shahbazyan sees this coming as a wry grin wraps across his face from ear to ear.
“The Golden Boy” fades back and plants a right hand square on the chin, and Budka’s balance immediately betrays him as he stumbles back and hits the deck. Shahbazyan rushes at “The Mindless Hulk,” depriving him of any further brain cells with a few hammerfists before Tognoni has seen more than enough.
Shahbazyan races off to celebrate with his corner, shocked that their timely advice of a pull-back right hand played out perfectly. That is one more highlight on the reel of the 27-year-old, who may not be totally washed despite the complaints of critics and colleagues.

The Official Result
Edmen Shahbazyan def. Dylan Budka R1 1:35 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dylan Budka

Angelo picks Dylan Budka despite acknowledging that many people think Budka is not good. He argues that Budka has very good offensive wrestling and Edmen Shahbazyan has poor takedown defense (65%) and is useless on the ground. He believes Budka can win with wrestling alone, and that the odds are upside down.

"bud is going to be the pick no idea and maybe I'm an absolute [ __ ] missing something which is quite possible I just feel like Budu can win this fight with wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Shahbazyan by first-round submission, arguing Budka is not on the level of Shahbazyan's previous opponents. Shahbazyan has a huge striking advantage and is even the better grappler. He expects Shahbazyan to hurt Budka, who will panic wrestle, and then snatch a submission. If Shahbazyan loses, he should retire.

submission in round 1
"I'll go Edon shabazi in first round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Connor picks Edmen Shahbazyan, agreeing with Zane that Budka is not ready for this level. He emphasizes Budka's lack of range game and his need for constant coaching, which makes him operate three steps behind. Connor notes that Shahbazyan, despite his own issues, has the depth of skill to bulldoze opponents like Budka. He also suggests that Shahbazyan might have benefited from being cut from the UFC earlier, like Zalal, to fix his problems.

Connor notes the odds: Shahbazyan opened at -269 and is now -366, Budka opened at +200 and is now +316. He says that's fine, but advises not to have odds that wide on Shahbazyan.
"This should not be a hard pick. This should not be if I had had been Shabbosian loses, but it's the fact that he still it still feels like he might be capable of losing it as a."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Lucrative James picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by KO, viewing this as a clear step down in competition for Shahbazyan. He notes that Shahbazyan's losses have come against high-level opponents like Gerald Meerschaert, Anthony Hernandez, and Nassourdine Imavov, while Dylan Budka has not shown UFC-level skills. He believes Shahbazyan's improved grappling and pace will be enough, and that Budka lacks the tools to exploit Shahbazyan's known cardio issues. He expects a finish inside the distance.

Edmen Shahbazyan by KO
"I'm picking Edmund chasan here I'm picking Edmond chian via KO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Shahbazyan has a big technical gap over Budka and can put him away early, likely within the first round. If it goes longer, his cardio becomes an issue. The -360 odds are iffy but Shahbazyan wins inside the distance.

Shahbazyan inside the distance; -360 odds mentioned as iffy
"I think he has a big enough skill gap here against Budka that I think he can put it on him early and eventually get him out of there within the first 5 minutes... I'm still going to pick Shahbazyan …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by early TKO in round one or two. He acknowledges Shahbazyan's past struggles with wrestling and cardio but believes Dylan Budka won't be able to take him down until it's too late. He trusts Shahbazyan's development at Xtreme Couture.

TKO early, fight under 10 minutes (PrizePicks)
"I'm going to go with Edmund shabazian getting an early TKO win over Dylan buka"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Zane picks Edmen Shahbazyan confidently, despite acknowledging Shahbazyan's well-documented flaws. He notes that Shahbazyan still crushes low-level middleweights and that Dylan Budka is a particularly limited fighter with no range game, no jab, no kicks, and a history of needing excessive in-cage coaching. Zane compares Budka to a 'no-legged man' in an ass-kicking contest, making Shahbazyan the clear pick. He also mentions that Shahbazyan's issues (fading after strong starts) are unlikely to be exploited by Budka.

Zane notes the odds: Shahbazyan opened at -269 and is now -366, Budka opened at +200 and is now +316. He says that's fine, but advises not to have odds that wide on Shahbazyan.
"So a one-legged man in the ass kicking contest against a no-legged man, right? You got to take the legs."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 4:12 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gerald Meerschaert 0 48 of 113 42% 48 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:21
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 21 of 44 47% 31 of 54 1 of 6 16% 1 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gerald Meerschaert 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 14 of 33 42% 16 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Gerald Meerschaert 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 7 of 11 63% 15 of 19 1 of 5 20% 1 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gerald Meerschaert 48 of 113 42% 31 of 94 16 of 18 1 of 1 26 of 60 5 of 9 17 of 44
Edmen Shahbazyan 21 of 44 47% 11 of 33 6 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gerald Meerschaert 22 of 50 44% 12 of 38 9 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 46 1 of 4 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 14 of 33 42% 5 of 24 5 of 5 4 of 4 14 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gerald Meerschaert 26 of 63 41% 19 of 56 7 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 14 4 of 5 17 of 44
Edmen Shahbazyan 7 of 11 63% 6 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-310), Meerschaert (+250)

Round 1
If Reese vs. Medina was the appetizer for middleweight finishers—although it did not go down the way matchmakers likely intended—this pairing between aggressive youngster Shahbazyan (13-4, 6-4 UFC) and crafty opportunist Meerschaert (36-17, 11-9 UFC) is the main course. Together, they sport three wins by decision across their combined 49 victories. Referee Mark Smith needs to be on his A-game for this one, although he is well-prepared for the bout that commences with a touch of gloves. Meerschaert introduces himself with a well-placed body kick, and Shahbazyan frowns and responds with a right straight to the ribs. Meerschaert scores another thudding body kick, and Shahbazyan measures his left hand and walks “GM3” down. A third body kick from Meerschaert connects cleanly, and he scores a one-two and is countered. Shahbazyan absorbs an inside leg kick and a jab, and he fights off a takedown but gets uppercutted twice in the exchange. Meerschaert lands a right hand and eats a right to the body and a left to the head. Shahbazyan rushes in, and he slashes out with an elbow to break. “GM3” sneaks in a left hand, and Shahbazyan boots him in the ribcage. Meerschaert does the same with his kick, and Shahbazyan targets his midsection in response. Doubling up on a jab, Shahbazyan punches his way in and follows a right hand with a head kick. Meerschaert blocks the second kick and loops a left hand in, and they get up close and personal to trade fierce punches. “GM3” further attacks the body, and a left hand that follows reddens up the nose of “The Golden Boy.” Shahbazyan splits the guard with a right cross, and he has a leg kick checked. Meerschaert kicks the inner thigh, and it slides up and slaps into the cup. Shahbazyan grimaces in pain, and Smith calls time. Shahbazyan clutches his groin and paces around to get his wind back, and he takes 75 seconds before resuming. Smith tells Meerschaert to “stay away from that area,” and he nods. On the restart, Meerschaert loops a right around the jab, and he parries a high body kick. Shahbazyan sticks him with a left and comes up short on a big left hand, and they clash with kicks at the same time. Shahbazyan walks through a punch to get Meerschaert’s attention with a right hook, and a body kick from “The Golden Boy” ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 2
The middleweight clap hands to start the round, and Meerschaert is on the attack immediately. Jabbing his way into a takedown effort, he fails on it and pulls back to try a second time. Meerschaert kicks the body of his foe, and he trips to his back and climbs back up. Shahbazyan defends from another takedown, and he clips “GM3” with a short right hook to the body and a pounding knee that puts Meerschaert down. Shahbazyan opens up with ground-and-pound, spamming punches and hammerfists as Smith tells him to fight back. Meerschaert stays busy enough to survive, slowing things down by tying up Shahbazyan’s hand. Shahbazyan tries his hardest to finish the fight, but Meerschaert is savvy enough to block most of them. When Shahbazyan takes mount, “GM3” times an explosion to buck Shahbazyan off of him. Meerschaert threatens with a guillotine off his back, and he reassumes the guard and looks to tie Shahbazyan up with a kimura. Shahbazyan stands up and tells Meerschaert to stand back up. Meerschaert immediately shoots for a takedown and is met with a knee, and he looks for a standing guillotine when Shahbazyan bullies him to the fence. Meerschaert does not have the sub, so he lets it go and blasts Shahbazyan with three ferocious punches. Shahbazyan gives him back two knees to the body and a right hand to back him away. Shahbazyan times a jump knee as Meerschaert tackles him to the mat, and with one minute to go, Meerschaert assumes to position.
In the blink of an eye, Meerschaert latches onto the arm-triangle choke, and he lowers himself down when sensing the resistance of “The Golden Boy” is not what it was before. “GM3” completes the submission without even stepping over to the side, instead hanging on in half guard, and that is all he needs. Shahbazyan surrenders to a sub for the first time in his career
, and Meerschaert has pulled off the upset and the comeback. In doing so, Meerschaert becomes the UFC’s all-time finish leader at middleweight, breaking his tie with Anderson Silva for sole possession of the record.

The Official Result
Gerald Meerschaert def. Edmen Shahbazyan R2 4:12 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert as an underdog, acknowledging his chinny reputation but noting his improved takedowns in his last fight. He thinks Meerschaert's grappling is the best it's looked and that if he can take Shahbazyan down, he'll be in trouble. He mentions that Shahbazyan is a 3-to-1 favorite which seems crazy, and that Apex cards are ripe for upsets. He also suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Meerschaert.

plus 3.5 points (decision win)
"I'm picking him Jared Mard is going to be the pick and this is another great plus three and a half bet spot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Cody picks Meerschaert because he thinks Shahbazyan is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. He notes Meerschaert has good BJJ, cardio, and a comeback ability. He believes if Shahbazyan doesn't knock him out in the first round, Meerschaert will take over and submit him. He also mentions that Shahbazyan has been stopped by wrestlers and grapplers before.

Gerald Meerschaert by submission (round 3)
"I'm going take a gm3 shot and that's rare for me but I'm gonna take a gm3 shot"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Daniel Vreeland picks Gerald Meerschaert for the upset, noting Shahbazyan is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He believes if Shahbazyan doesn't get a first-round KO, Meerschaert will take over with submissions or ground-and-pound. He acknowledges the risk of Shahbazyan winning early.

submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'll go Gerald mirar for the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

JP picks Shahbazyan by KO, noting his losses were to elite competition and he has looked great lately. He thinks Meerschaert is old, slow, and his standup is not good. Brevin agrees, adding that Meerschaert is reckless and has been taking bad punishment recently, including a one-punch KO loss to Chimaev. Shahbazyan is bigger, younger, and has good wrestling to stuff takedowns.

Shahbazyan by KO
"I'm gonna take shabazian and I'm gonna take shabazian by KO I think he's better I think Mard slow give me shabazian by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Paul leans towards Shahbazyan by KO but doesn't like the price. He thinks Shahbazyan has the power to finish Meerschaert early, but notes that Meerschaert is durable and could survive. He prefers to bet live or take a prop on Shahbazyan by KO rather than the moneyline. He also mentions that Meerschaert's chin is suspect.

Edmen Shahbazyan by KO/TKO (round 1)
"I would way rather BET live wait for Shian to fall off if I missed Theus 170 on Edmond shabazian by KO which I think is the most likely outcome"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan by first-round KO. He believes Shahbazyan is much more talented on the feet and that Meerschaert is getting old. He cites Shahbazyan's wins over Barbarena, AJ Dobson, and Dingi Andula, and notes Meerschaert's recent win over Barbarena was unimpressive. He predicts a first-round finish.

first round KO
"I think he's way more talented on the feet than Gerald and I actually think this is actually recipe for a first round KO for Edmund shabazian"
WIN vs A.J. Dobson
KO (punches) R1 4:33 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edmen Shahbazyan 1 27 of 43 62% 31 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:49
A.J. Dobson 0 15 of 46 32% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 1 27 of 43 62% 31 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:49
A.J. Dobson 0 15 of 46 32% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edmen Shahbazyan 27 of 43 62% 19 of 34 2 of 3 6 of 6 16 of 24 1 of 3 10 of 16
A.J. Dobson 15 of 46 32% 7 of 36 2 of 2 6 of 8 12 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 27 of 43 62% 19 of 34 2 of 3 6 of 6 16 of 24 1 of 3 10 of 16
A.J. Dobson 15 of 46 32% 7 of 36 2 of 2 6 of 8 12 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
A.J. Dobson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-198), Dobson (+164)

Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night” slot, two relatively young middleweights are both at a crossroads. After starting out his UFC tenure red hot and surging into the rankings, Shahbazyan (12-4, 5-4 UFC) has hit a wall and won just once in five outings. Dobson (7-2, 1 NC; 1-2 UFC) has not struggled quite as much, and a win could right his ship in the Octagon to .500. Both men will try to establish themselves while referee Mark Smith watches on, and they lead off with hands being clapped together. Shahbazyan lands first with a low kick, and Dobson springs into action with a three-punch combo. Shahbazyan tries another lazy kick, and Dobson once more meets him with three in a row. Dobson is a coiled spring ready to strike, and Shahbazyan is more cautious and landing single strikes. Dobson shrugs off a calf kick and puts a one-two on the chin, and he takes two left hands on the temple to back him off for a moment. Dobson chips at the lead leg twice until they crash together throwing hands, and he tags “The Golden Boy” with a right hand. Shahbazyan is stunned and shoots for a takedown, and Dobson stands him up with a guillotine choke try. Dobson looks to make him pay with short shots, and Shahbazyan gloms onto him and hits a trip takedown. Dobson scrambles madly to get out of bad position, and he manages to flip him over and get into the guard of his foe. Dobson connects with left hands, and Shahbazyan answers with elbows off his back. Dobson clubs his opponent with right hands until Shahbazyan wraps him up and looks for an armbar. Dobson shrugs it off and absorbs more elbows to the side of the head as Shahbazyan squirms his way to the fence. Shahbazyan stands back up with the wall behind him, and he lands a knee on the inside and turns Dobson around in the clinch. Shahbazyan tries to wrangle Dobson down to the mat, and Dobson nearly falls on top of him until Shahbazyan muscles his way back up. Dobson pushes off out of the clinch and catches Shahbazyan with a left hand, and he beats Shahbazyan to the punch with a pair of strikes. Dobson lunges out with a left, and he chains a few punches together and gets caught with a vicious left hand.
Dobson crumbles to the mat, and Shahbazyan jackhammers him with punches and ferocious elbows. Dobson teeters on the edge of consciousness as Shahbazyan delivers punishment, and the strikes put him out as his head bounces off the mat.
Shahbazyan continues punching until Smith recognizes that Dobson is unconscious and he calls a halt to the fight. What a dramatic round for Shahbazyan, who outlasts a rough few minutes to knock Dobson unconscious. This marks the first time that Dobson has been finished as a professional, while clocking in as Shahbazyan’s first stoppage in the first round since 2019.

The Official Result
Edmen Shahbazyan def. A.J. Dobson R1 4:33 via KO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Angelo picks A.J. Dobson as an underdog, surprised by the plus 160 odds. He believes Dobson has plenty of power, wrestling, and chin to win. He plans to wait for prop bets, specifically a plus 3.5 round bet, to protect against a decision loss where Dobson wins at least one round.

plus 3.5 round bet if available
"I like AJ to win he has plenty of power plenty of wrestling plenty of chin to survive AJ's going to be the pick and even though I love these dog odds plus 160 I'll probably wait for prop bets …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan, believing he is the better striker and more active. He notes Shahbazyan's takedown defense is not terrible and that Dobson is low volume. He acknowledges Shahbazyan's cardio issues but expects him to win the first two rounds and hold on for a 29-28 decision.

"I'll take him to hold on I'm going to take shabaz in here to to win these first two rounds and then kind of grease out the third round and and win this fight by decision 29-28"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Cody picks Shahbazyan, believing he will outclass Dobson on the feet and land a knockout. He notes Shahbazyan's power and finishing ability, but also acknowledges his cardio issues. Cody bets the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

under 2.5 rounds
"I think Edmond shabazian eventually just kind of outclasses him on the feet lands an absolute nuke."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Edmen Shahbazyan because he believes A.J. Dobson won't push the pace enough to expose Shahbazyan's cardio issues. He acknowledges Shahbazyan has broken in extended fights before but thinks Dobson's low output favors Shahbazyan. He is not confident enough to bet the favorite.

"I'm going to lean towards Edmund because I think that Dobson's not going to push the pace necessary to get Edmond to that state of wanting to look for the door"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Shahbazyan has a striking and speed advantage, and his submission game is solid. However, his cardio is a major concern; he tends to slow down. Dobson is a low-output striker with mediocre wrestling, but he has a better gas tank. Shahbazyan should land easily and could finish early, possibly by submission. A small sprinkle on Dobson in round three is mentioned, but the pick is Shahbazyan inside the distance.

Shahbazyan by submission at +900; small sprinkle on Dobson in round 3
"I'm going to pick shabazi here I think he wins inside the distance maybe a small sprinkle on Dobson in round three is not a bad idea but I think shabazi will do a better job all around to get …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Paul leans toward the over 2.5 rounds, citing Shahbazyan's cardio issues and Dobson's durability. He thinks Dobson will try to wrestle and slow the fight down, which could lead to a decision. Paul picks Shahbazyan but expects a tough fight, possibly going to decision.

over 2.5 rounds
"I would go shasan by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan over A.J. Dobson, citing Shahbazyan's speed and accuracy. He thinks Shahbazyan will land a right hand and finish with uppercuts and knees against the cage. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Dobson's lack of speed and inability to get takedowns.

first round TKO
"I'm going with Edmund shabazian... first round TKO for Edmund shabazian"
TKO (elbows and punches) R3 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 51 58% 33 of 55 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 63 of 88 71% 77 of 105 6 of 15 40% 4 0 7:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 25 of 42 59% 27 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:23
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 15 of 27 55% 17 of 30 2 of 8 25% 2 0 2:29
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 4 of 8 50% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 28 of 39 71% 39 of 50 3 of 6 50% 2 0 3:54
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 20 of 22 90% 21 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 30 of 51 58% 21 of 42 8 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 35 11 of 14 2 of 2
Edmen Shahbazyan 63 of 88 71% 55 of 79 4 of 4 4 of 5 15 of 33 8 of 8 40 of 47
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 25 of 42 59% 17 of 34 7 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 27 10 of 13 2 of 2
Edmen Shahbazyan 15 of 27 55% 13 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 19 6 of 6 2 of 2
2 Anthony Hernandez 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 28 of 39 71% 22 of 33 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 13 2 of 2 19 of 24
3 Anthony Hernandez 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 20 of 22 90% 20 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-240), Shahbazyan (+200)

Round 1
It’s an all-California middleweight rumble in the co-main attraction, as the resurgent Shahbazyan (12-3, 5-3 UFC) looks to halt the impressive but brief win streak of “Fluffy” Hernandez (10-2, 1 NC; 4-2 UFC). Finish rates of 92% for the former and 80% for the latter mean that while the judges might not be needed for the bout’s duration, referee Herb Dean very well may be required. Before the action begins, the two 185ers try to touch gloves and miss, so they abandon it. Shahbazyan lands the first blow with a right hand, and Hernandez responds with a takedown entry. Shahbazyan loads up with a right hand to hurt “Fluffy” and bends him over, and Hernandez backs away to the wall as Shahbazyan unloads with a series of punches. Hernandez backs away, shells up, sticks his tongue out and counters. Hernandez then goes for a takedown, and he gets tossed out of the way and tagged with a serious jab from his foe. Shahbazyan steps in with a one-two that knocks Hernandez back, and Hernandez rolls with it to take away the worst of it but he cannot buy a takedown at this point. Shahbazyan counters an entry with a knee and stands his foe up when trying, and he scores an elbow and looks to counter with a takedown of his own. Hernandez jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and he bails on it to stand when it is not close. When both are up again, Shahbazyan kicks his foe in the chest, and Hernandez gives chase and drills him the face with a right hand. Hernandez jams his man into the wire, where he looks for a body lock takedown or a throw. Hernandez chains his attempt to a single, and he runs his foe from one side of the cage to the other but cannot ground him. Shahbazyan defends well and plants a knee on the chest, and Hernandez slashes an elbow over the top to cut open the left eyebrow. Hernandez shoots and finds himself in guillotine choke danger, and he turns all the way through it to get out. Shahbazyan rolls to his back to go after an armbar, and he loses the grip and winds up in choke danger on his own side. Hernandez looks for a modified arm-in guillotine choke, and he lets it go so that he can take the fight down on his own terms. Shahbazyan works his way up, and he eats a few elbows and succumbs to a double with 20 seconds to spare. Hernandez sets up a rear-naked choke while his foe is seated, and Shahbazyan stands up and takes a knee on the chin before the horn sounds to end the wild frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center of the cage, and Hernandez lands a punch, a kick and shoots in for a takedown. When Shahbazyan turns it around on him, Hernandez goes for his unorthodox guillotine again. Shahbazyan turns through to get to a knee, and he stands up and pushes off with a right hand. The two trade jabs, their pace slowed momentarily, and Hernandez chains a jab into an elbow. When Shahbazyan backs into the cage, Hernandez rings his bell with a straight right hand. This leads to a tie-up, and both men fight to get a takedown and drop to a knee. Shahbazyan drops down for a single, and Hernandez dumps him on his face, turns the corner and hits a double. Hernandez lets him sit up so he can punch him in the face, and he stays pinned to a fatiguing Shahbazyan and looks to pick him up and throw him down again. Shahbazyan stands up and gets kneed in the chest, and he is fading fast as Hernandez is on him, smothering him or landing punches. Hernandez grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and he flips his foe over to full mount. When Shahbazyan scrambles, Hernandez transitions the choke to another side, and then to an anaconda. Shahbazyan escapes them all, winding up on top, but Hernandez is on him with another guillotine in the blink of an eye. Hernandez takes his back and looks for a choke, all while working Shahbazyan over with elbows when he can find one. Hernandez goes for another one of his strange guillotine chokes, and he lets it go to take the back and fish for a rear-naked choke. Shahbazyan turns and defends properly, but he cannot get Hernandez off of him. Hernandez sits up with fierce punches and elbows, and he thumps Shahbazyan with elbows to the head, body and thigh until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez

Round 3
The fighters have reached the last round, and Hernandez reintroduces himself to his foe with a head kick. It does not take more than about 12 seconds for Hernandez to hit a takedown, and he sits up and starts belting the spent Shahbazyan with punches and elbows.
The elbows from “Fluffy” have opened up another cut on the face of his opponent, and he sits up and keeps beating on his doomed adversary. Hernandez, seeing that he has Shahbazyan at the end of his rope, slashes down with elbows and adds in few punches to seal the deal. Dean, seeing that Shahbazyan is completely cooked, intervenes for a merciful stoppage
, saving the young fighter from any further punishment. “Fluffy” made a seriously statement to the rest of the middleweight division with this gutsy performance, and he might have a number next to his name next week, now celebrating four stoppages in row.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Edmen Shahbazyan R3 1:01 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez confidently, citing his superior grappling and high takedown volume. He notes that while Hernandez's control could be better, Shahbazyan struggles to get back to his feet when taken down. He considers Hernandez safe for parlays.

"fluffy is the pick and is potentially safe for parlays so I'm pretty confident in Anthony Hernandez to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to submit Edmen Shahbazyan in the second round. He calls it a terrible matchup for Shahbazyan, who has historically faded in later rounds. Hernandez is known for his cardio, pressure, and wrestling, and should break Shahbazyan. He notes Shahbazyan is dangerous early but expects Hernandez to weather the storm and finish him in the second.

submission in round 2
"give me Hernandez to break Emma Shabazz and I'll take Hernandez second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio, noting he averaged 8 takedowns in his last two fights. He contrasts Shahbazyan's tendency to fade after the first round and poor takedown defense. He expects Hernandez to wear Shahbazyan down with chain wrestling and secure a late finish or dominant decision.

"I have to go with the favorite here with Hernandez and I'm gonna have to trust him a little bit this week."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Connor picks Shahbazyan, citing his much cleaner striking and the potential to finish Hernandez early. He acknowledges the risk of Hernandez's pace but believes Shahbazyan's improved camp (ditching Tiverdian, sparring with Sean Strickland, training at Xtreme Couture) and his composed performance against Lungiambula are good signs. He thinks Shahbazyan could easily knock Hernandez out or tune him up, and that Hernandez's wide-open striking leaves opportunities for Shahbazyan to land clean shots.

Shahbazyan opened at +264, currently +196; Hernandez opened at -313, currently -225.
"I'm picking Shahbazyan. I just think he's so much more a dynamic threat that he could just as easily crush Hernandez very much like Kevin Holland did."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Levi confidently picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez. He highlights Hernandez's relentless takedown game, noting he landed 16 takedowns in his last two fights (8/11 vs Josh Fremd, 8/14 vs Marc-André Barriault). He believes Hernandez will survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round and then break him with pressure and grappling, as Shahbazyan has historically faded past the first round. Levi acknowledges Hernandez's durability concerns (body shots) but thinks his wrestling and cardio will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go with Anthony fluffy Hernandez to defeat Edmund shabazian"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host is very confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a smash spot. He believes Hernandez's relentless forward pressure, cardio, and grappling will drown Shahbazyan, who has cardio issues. He predicts a submission in round two, noting that if Shahbazyan doesn't get an early KO, Hernandez will take over.

round two by submission
"I love Hernandez in the spot... I feel like stylistically if he can evade that big punch punching power early he's gonna drown shabazzian and finish him later on in this matchup no doubt about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul agrees, citing Hernandez's improved pace and cardio, and the stylistic advantage of his wrestling against Shahbazyan's suspect takedown defense. He notes that Shahbazyan's cardio issues are likely to be exploited, leading to Hernandez dominating later rounds.

"it's Hernandez for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, calling him a style designed to beat Edmen Shahbazyan. He highlights Hernandez's pace-pushing wrestling and scrambles, which he believes will get into Shahbazyan's head. He notes Shahbazyan's demons may creep in as the fight goes on, and that Hernandez is a nightmare matchup. He acknowledges a chance Shahbazyan wins by first-round TKO but expects Hernandez to overcome early danger and win.

"I'm going with Anthony Hernandez ... he's sort of like the new Pace pushing wrestler on the Block in that division"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez because he believes Shahbazyan's historical issues with pace and grappling pressure will resurface. He notes that Hernandez has one of the best gas tanks and pushes a relentless pace, which is exactly the kind of problem Shahbazyan has struggled with. Even with Shahbazyan's improved camp and confidence from his last win, Zane needs to see more than a win over Dalcha Lungiambula to trust him against a pressure fighter like Hernandez.

Shahbazyan opened at +264, currently +196; Hernandez opened at -313, currently -225.
"I'm picking Hernandez here. I just think this seems like the exact kind of problem that Shahbazyan has had so often."
TKO (punches) R2 4:41 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 54 of 107 50% 60 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Dalcha Lungiambula 0 23 of 48 47% 26 of 51 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 0 20 of 35 57% 26 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
Dalcha Lungiambula 0 11 of 22 50% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
2 Edmen Shahbazyan 0 34 of 72 47% 34 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Dalcha Lungiambula 0 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edmen Shahbazyan 54 of 107 50% 31 of 78 20 of 25 3 of 4 37 of 72 7 of 10 10 of 25
Dalcha Lungiambula 23 of 48 47% 6 of 24 11 of 18 6 of 6 22 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 20 of 35 57% 4 of 16 13 of 15 3 of 4 17 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0
Dalcha Lungiambula 11 of 22 50% 1 of 8 5 of 9 5 of 5 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Edmen Shahbazyan 34 of 72 47% 27 of 62 7 of 10 0 of 0 20 of 40 4 of 7 10 of 25
Dalcha Lungiambula 12 of 26 46% 5 of 16 6 of 9 1 of 1 11 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dalcha Lungiambula vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-280), Lungiambula (+235)

Round 1
Once a surging contender, Shahbazyan (11-3, 4-3 UFC) has his back against the wall after three straight humbling losses. The 25-year-old took a long time off and changed camps from Glendale Fighting Club to Xtreme Couture in hopes of a new beginning, and this path will officially start when he faces fellow powerhouse Lungiambula (11-5, 2-4 UFC). This fight that could last 15 seconds or 15 minutes will be officiated by referee Chris Tognoni, who observes the two men touching gloves first. Shahbazyan leads off with a jab, and he swats away a body kick. Two punches come over the top from “The Golden Boy,” who follows the strikes with a low kick. Lungiambula swings and misses with a kick, and the fighters in alternating stands hand-fight without throwing much. Shahbazyan stings his man with a right hand over the top, but it is one-and-done without any subsequent effort. Shahbazyan dodges a counter and lands two right hands to the head and body, and Lungiambula springs into action and leaps in with heavy swatting punches. Shahbazyan works the body with a right hand and a kick, hoping to take some of the power out of the man known as “Champion.” Lungiambula blocks a head kick, and they both get off loud body kicks. Shahbazyan swings a kick to the midsection and then goes up high with the other leg, and he ducks out of the way when looping hooks fly over his head. Lungiambula sits down on a thudding body kick, and Shahbazyan answers him in their slow-paced version of Paco vs. Frank Dux from “Bloodsport.” Unlike that fight, Lungiambula choose to shoot in for a takedown, and Shahbazyan bounces off the fence as he hops away to defend it. Shahbazyan turns him around in the clinch and knees to the body are traded, and the two stall out in this position with short strikes offered from each. Shahbazyan partially absorbs a knee to the groin, complains, and when that falls on deaf ears, he pushes off. After the lull in action, Shahbazyan dodges a head kick just in the nick of time. Lungiambula swings for the bleachers, falling over in the process, catching Shahbazyan with a few punches but missing with most. The horn sounds, and Lungiambula throws one more punch that misses by a matter of inches, and Tognoni admonishes him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 2
The middleweights meet in the middle without a glove touch this time, and Lungiambula reintroduces him with a whipping kick to the ribs. Lungiambula chases with a one-two, and he stuns Shahbazyan with a short right hand. Shahbazyan answers with a power right of his own, and Lungiambula ignores it and throws his whole body into a looping left hand that misses the mark widely. Lungiambula cracks his man with a left hand, and the punch bounces off the head and hits the groin in an unusual ricochet. Shahbazyan is upset with the perceived foul, and Tognoni calls it and lets Shahbazyan recover. They get back to it after about a minute break, and they continue to swing single haymakers at one another. When they clash together throwing so hard, Shahbazyan connects with a knee to the chin, and Lungiambula answers with a head kick that wobbles “The Golden Boy.” Lungiambula slowly plods forward as Shahbazyan skirts away on the outside, and he wings power strikes with bad intentions. Shahbazyan responds with a right hook and a body kick, and he gets back on his bike. Lungiambula walks him down and connects twice, and he smacks the body with a kick. Shahbazyan fires off a right hand and a head kick, and Lungiambula dives forward after taking a subsequent body shot for a level change.
Shahbazyan answers this with a ferocious knee right on the chin, and Lungiambula is stung. Shahbazyan unleashes a fury of knees and punches, knocking Lungiambula against the wall and hurting him badly. Lungiambula loosely responds with a right hook that misses the mark, and Shahbazyan blasts him with a knee and is on him like a cheap suit, forcing a desperate Lungiambula to his knees. Shahbazyan unloads with punches to the side of the head as he tries to put his man away, and Lungiambula is stuck and just trying to protect himself without moving.
This is enough for Tognoni to intervene, as he feels “Champion” is no longer intelligently defending himself. Shahbazyan claims that he is back, and that he is “Vegas Edmen” now, having put an end to a rough skid with a second-round stoppage.

The Official Result
Edmen Shahbazyan def. Dalcha Lungiambula R2 4:41 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Angelo picks Shahbazyan despite his three-fight losing streak, because Lungiambula has terrible cardio and tends to gas out after wrestling. He notes that Shahbazyan's takedown defense is suspect (57%) and Lungiambula is a judo black belt who could take him down, but Lungiambula's tendency to exhaust himself makes him vulnerable. Angelo warns not to put Shahbazyan in parlays as he could be a parlay buster.

Do not put Shahbazyan in parlays.
"I'm gonna pick Edmund still because dolce's cardio is just absolute trash"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan, noting the significant step down in competition. He highlights Shahbazyan's power and well-rounded skills, while criticizing Lungiambula's poor gas tank and low volume. He expects Shahbazyan to win by second round knockout, possibly by wrestling to tire Lungiambula.

Shahbazyan wins by second round knockout
"I like I like Edmond here quite a bit I mean it's hard to trust the guy he's on a three fights kid but I mean he should absolutely win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Cody picks Shahbazyan, citing his talent and that he has moved to a new gym (Extreme Couture). He thinks Lungiambula is a gatekeeper on a losing streak and that Shahbazyan should win if he doesn't gas. He notes Shahbazyan's previous losses were to top competition and that this is a step down.

"I think he capitalizes on it so Kimmy had been shabazzi and get his hand raised here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel Levi picks Edmen Shahbazyan but with low confidence, calling him a 'fraud past the first round.' He notes Shahbazyan is a potent first-round finisher but has broken every time he's gone past the first round. Levi acknowledges Dalcha Lungiambula's power and experience in later rounds, but thinks Shahbazyan may catch him early. He warns against laying the -280 price and says if Shahbazyan doesn't finish in the first, he will likely quit. Levi picks Shahbazyan by first-round finish but advises against betting him.

Expects first-round finish from Shahbazyan.
"I'm gonna go Edmund and get his first round finish but if you lay a prize like this on Edmund and he does not get his first round finish and he quits in the second or third round you got …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Lock is on the inside the distance line for Shahbazyan, agreeing with the co-host that this is a good jumping-off point to buy in at $1.35. He thinks the move to Extreme Couture was the best thing for his career, and that the team will help him remember what he's good at and how to get finishes. He expects a rejuvenated version of Shahbazyan and believes he will put together a couple of good wins, though he doesn't expect a huge bump immediately.

inside the distance
"I'm personally on the inside the distance line as well and I think that this is going to be a good jumping off point to buy in on him and at a dollar 35."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Paul picks Shahbazyan but is scared off by the price. He notes Lungiambula has power and could land a shot, but thinks Shahbazyan should win. He is not confident enough to lay the juice.

"I'll pick Edmund but uh I'm a little scared off by the price not gonna lie to you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan over Dalcha Lungiambula, despite initially considering the underdog. He notes that Shahbazyan's losses are to top competition like Nassourdine Imavov and Jack Hermansson, and he looked impressive against Brad Tavares. He believes Shahbazyan has improved his grappling and training at Extreme Couture with Ankalaev, and will survive an early storm to win by TKO in the second or third round.

"I'm going with Edmund shabazian"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Brunson has been knocked out five times and is past his prime at 36, while Shahbazyan is a young 22-year-old beast with a high ceiling. He believes Shahbazyan will come out aggressively and touch Brunson's chin early, ending the fight in the first round. He mentions the line is off at -345 and suggests looking at inside the distance props.

inside the distance (-265), first round knockout
"i just see uh shabazzian ending this in the first round touching brunson on the chin"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel picks Shahbazyan, praising his complete skill set including boxing, grappling, and takedowns. He notes that Brunson leads with his chin up and that Shahbazyan throws straight, disciplined shots. He expects a first-round knockout, citing Shahbazyan's 10 first-round finishes and his handling of Brad Tavares.

first round knockout
"i say he comes out here and gets the knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

The host picks Brunson despite being an underdog, citing concerns about Shahbazyan's cardio and lack of experience in later rounds. He notes that Shahbazyan looked poor in the third round against Darren Stewart and that Brunson's wrestling and grinding style could neutralize Shahbazyan's early power. He also mentions the smaller cage favoring Brunson's clinch game and that the line has moved too far in Shahbazyan's favor.

under 1.5 rounds not mentioned; host says 'dog or pass' and prefers Brunson at +270
"I'm going to go with brunson here i'm going to go with brunson via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The host picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by brutal KO in the first round. He notes Shahbazyan's calmness, distance control, and takedown defense, while criticizing Derek Brunson's tendency to come forward with his chin exposed and get knocked out by top competition. He mentions Brunson's pattern of beating lower-level guys and losing to rising contenders, and predicts a straight right or uppercut finish.

first round KO, straight right or uppercut finish
"shabazian gets the job done by brutal ko i think he gets it by a straight right right on the bottom right on the button as brunson comes in"