UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Dec 07, 2019 · Catchweight (120.5 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 4"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Marina Rodriguez
4.51 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.01 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.27 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Cynthia Calvillo
4.41 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
4.12 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.8 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Marina Rodriguez - Fight History
KO R2 2:07 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 17 23% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 16 of 41 39% 73 of 120 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 13 15% 5 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 11 of 25 44% 42 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:34
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 16 31% 31 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 17 23% 3 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 16 of 41 39% 12 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 20 0 of 0 10 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 13 15% 2 of 11 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 11 of 25 44% 7 of 17 2 of 5 2 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 5 of 8
2 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 16 31% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 13
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.

"Jillian is the pick. And because Marina is so battle tested, this could be a split decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.

Decision win
"Got to be Robertson here. Um she's much younger. Um I think she's been looking great at Strowway."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.

submission
"I fully expect Robertson to grind this fight out, landing those opportune takedowns and taking advantage of the poor takedown defense and getups of Rodriguez, which should eventually lead to Robertson landing and securing a submission victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.

underdog pick at +260, possible third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Marina Rodriguez pulling off the upset here as a plus 260 underdog."
LOSS vs Iasmin Lucindo
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 33 of 99 33% 65 of 134 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Marina Rodriguez 0 30 of 73 41% 55 of 104 3 of 4 75% 0 1 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 5 of 25 20% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 20 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 16 of 37 43% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 24 41% 24 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 12 of 37 32% 26 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 33 of 99 33% 28 of 89 5 of 7 0 of 3 28 of 92 3 of 5 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 30 of 73 41% 19 of 56 9 of 13 2 of 4 27 of 68 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 5 of 25 20% 4 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 4 10 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 16 of 37 43% 13 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 1 14 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 24 41% 6 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 9 of 16 56% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the at the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 89 of 180 49% 124 of 220 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Marina Rodriguez 0 82 of 228 35% 94 of 241 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 14 of 23 60% 49 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Marina Rodriguez 0 16 of 36 44% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 42 of 86 48% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Marina Rodriguez 0 35 of 107 32% 35 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Marina Rodriguez 0 31 of 85 36% 32 of 86 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 89 of 180 49% 35 of 110 14 of 18 40 of 52 79 of 165 7 of 11 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 82 of 228 35% 70 of 207 9 of 17 3 of 4 77 of 220 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 14 of 23 60% 2 of 7 1 of 2 11 of 14 11 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 16 of 36 44% 9 of 28 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jéssica Andrade 42 of 86 48% 21 of 59 8 of 11 13 of 16 35 of 75 7 of 11 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 35 of 107 32% 34 of 104 1 of 3 0 of 0 33 of 104 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jéssica Andrade 33 of 71 46% 12 of 44 5 of 5 16 of 22 33 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 31 of 85 36% 27 of 75 4 of 9 0 of 1 28 of 81 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.

"I am going to go Marina Rodriguez here she's just the better fighter and she's going to keep Jessica at the end of her strikes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.

"Marina seems like the best women's fighter on the card in terms of springing the upset by just catching a draw with that counter right hand so I'm going to go with Reena Rodriguez."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I actually, I actually feel reasonably confident in Rodriguez here. I mean, I think Jessica looked against all odds and expectations. She looked like she recaptured her confidence against Mackenzie Dern."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.

"I got Andrade"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.

"whoever wins between Jessica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez are either going to fight for the title next or more than likely be in a number one contenders spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.

decision
"I think we see Andra win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.

"I wanted to disagree with you but I'm going to side with you cuz all I do is pick woman's under dos one of them's going to hit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.

"I'm going with Marina Rodriguez by TKO because there is no way in hell I'm picking a girl to win a fight that just made me believe that Erin blanchfield has ever thrown a punch before in her life."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to go with you and pick, uh, pick Rodriguez here. I just, I do think that without the clinch to fall into, it's a really bad matchup for András."
TKO (punches) R2 2:42 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 70 of 102 68% 90 of 130 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 32 40% 16 of 37 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 51 of 75 68% 67 of 99 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 10 of 20 50% 13 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:09
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 19 of 27 70% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 70 of 102 68% 47 of 70 22 of 30 1 of 2 12 of 23 53 of 73 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 32 40% 7 of 23 5 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 17 7 of 9 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 51 of 75 68% 38 of 56 13 of 19 0 of 0 6 of 13 45 of 62 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 10 of 20 50% 5 of 15 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 6 of 7 2 of 6
2 Marina Rodriguez 19 of 27 70% 9 of 14 9 of 11 1 of 2 6 of 10 8 of 11 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo trusts Marina slightly more to push the action and keep her boxing in Michelle's face. He notes Michelle has more dynamic striking and experience but is inconsistent. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and suggests betting over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, potentially plus 3.5 on Michelle
"I trust Marina just to smidge more in this matchup to push the action keep her boxing in Michelle's face"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez confidently, expecting a decision win. He notes Rodriguez is the better striker with power, while Waterson-Gomez has zero power and relies on volume. He thinks the fight will stay standing and Rodriguez will do more damage. He mentions Waterson-Gomez could try takedowns but doubts she will. He calls the rematch unnecessary.

"give me a give me Rodriguez here to win this fight and win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez by decision, expecting a similar outcome to their first fight. He notes Rodriguez's size, output, and ability to stuff takedowns, while Waterson has declined and struggles to implement her grappling. He sees no significant improvements from Waterson and believes Rodriguez will outwork her again.

"I'm sure I'm using too many words on this fight at this point so let's just go ahead and call it a marina Rodriguez by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident Rodriguez wins, citing her massive volume and reach advantage on the feet. He rewatched their first fight and saw Rodriguez dominate until getting taken down in round 4. He believes if Rodriguez avoids extended time on bottom, she will out-strike Waterson decisively. He notes Waterson's low output and age (37) as concerns, and thinks Rodriguez covers the -300 line.

considers laying -300 straight; mentions -3.5 point spread as an option
"I think Marina Rodriguez is going to double her up on strikes for at least two of the rounds and hold on for deer life in that one round that she does get taken down I think she covers this …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Lucrative James is confident Rodriguez will win, calling Waterson washed and not good on the ground. He thinks Rodriguez will piece her up and sees value at -300, estimating her true probability at 85%. He also considers betting the under or Rodriguez by KO, but is wary of recent losses on women's unders.

under 2.5 rounds +260 considered; Rodriguez KO considered
"Marina Rodriguez gonna beat her up... she's a clear favorite in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Rodriguez at minus 300, expecting a repeat of their first fight where Rodriguez battered Waterson-Gomez on the feet. He notes Waterson-Gomez's underrated BJJ but poor wrestling to get the fight down, and that Rodriguez's takedown defense and clinch work (knees, elbows) will keep it standing. He acknowledges both are on losing streaks but sees Rodriguez as the younger, more powerful striker who wins by decision.

"give me Rodriguez and I think she wins this fight by decision and a minus 300 but the line makes sense"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Rodriguez, but won't bet at -300. He likes Rodriguez's over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, noting she landed 78 in the first fight. He thinks Waterson's takedown threat is minimal and Rodriguez will out-strike her again.

Over 70.5 significant strikes for Rodriguez on PrizePicks.
"I like Rodriguez but you know me I'm never getting to a minus 300. the CF dog just tells me to pass... I'll take a little sprinkle on some of my prize picks entries on Rodriguez over uh 70.5 significant …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru confidently picks Marina Rodriguez, noting she already beat Michelle Waterson in their first fight, winning 4-1 on rounds. He criticizes Waterson's three-fight losing streak and questions the rematch. He defends Rodriguez's loss to Amanda Lemos as an early stoppage and praises her grappling awareness against Mackenzie Dern. He believes Rodriguez's striking and overall game are clearly superior.

"Rodriguez here... Marina Rodriguez is going to win she lost to Amanda Lemos by early stoppage it was an early stoppage 100..."
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 33 of 62 53% 115 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 27 of 43 62% 91 of 116 3 of 7 42% 0 1 12:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:36
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 16 68% 34 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 1 4:06
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 21 of 42 50% 70 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 12 of 20 60% 26 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 33 of 62 53% 27 of 52 5 of 8 1 of 2 10 of 37 3 of 3 20 of 22
Marina Rodriguez 27 of 43 62% 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 22 5 of 5 15 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 6
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 8
3 Virna Jandiroba 21 of 42 50% 19 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 28 1 of 1 11 of 13
Marina Rodriguez 12 of 20 60% 10 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.

do not bet on this fight - feels like a trap
"Marina's gonna be the pick but for just absolute shit's sake do not bet on this fight this feels like a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.

Second round submission prediction
"I'm actually going to go with we're going to generobo to win this fight by submission I think she's going to get a ton of opportunities here to get that submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.

"I would take the plus money shot here on gender Robo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116.
"I think I have to agree with that with not a whole lot to add."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.

"I'm hoping from the improvements that we've been seeing from Rodriguez over our last several fights she'll be able to keep this fight upright land the more significant strikes and get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.

"I took a stale plus 140 the market moved a little bit but I still think I like plus 125s"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.

decision win
"I'm gonna side with Marina Rodriguez here ... bouncing back with a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116; odds tightening but Zane thinks it's not deserved.
"I just don't trust Jandiroba to get into the kind of insane exchanges that Rodriguez creates one way or the other."
LOSS vs Amanda Lemos
TKO (punches) R3 0:54 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 19 of 52 36% 44 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 53 54% 43 of 67 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 9 of 29 31% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 15 26% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 16 50% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 19 of 52 36% 6 of 26 3 of 8 10 of 18 18 of 51 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 29 of 53 54% 16 of 36 10 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 48 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 9 of 29 31% 1 of 9 1 of 5 7 of 15 8 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 18 61% 4 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 4 of 15 26% 1 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 8 of 16 50% 4 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 19 52% 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

this may be a mandala most win inside the distance decision no choking decision no action bet if a Mandela most wins by submission or knockout I'll get paid if she loses a decision which is the most likely outcome I'll get a full refund
"I do have Marina winning I think it's sort of the volume that does it but she needs to avoid the power stay Technical and beat Amanda the same way that Angela hill almost did"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Rodriguez wins by knockout in round 4
"I like Rodriguez here to win I'm gonna take her to win by fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Marina Rodriguez by decision
"I will take Marina Rodriguez Marina Rodriguez by decision but you know I'm not I'm not running to the book you say and take my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

No bet; line considered wide
"I lean with Marina Rodriguez... I don't have a bet on this fight and I don't really have an interest in betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Rodriguez round 5 TKO; round 4 or 5 decision
"give me Marina Rodriguez round five TKO I think glamos will be on fumes by that point"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

under on total rounds (considering), Marina Rodriguez 120 significant strikes on PrizePicks (considering)
"Marina Rodriguez is the pick for the purposes of the show I'm not gonna be attacking the minus 220 though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.

48-47 or 49-46 decision
"I'm going Marina Rodriguez here... I'll go 48 47 49 46 Marina Rodriguez but she loses the first round."
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 72 of 200 36% 79 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Yan Xiaonan 0 56 of 132 42% 66 of 143 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 18 of 48 37% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 24 of 54 44% 25 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 14 of 45 31% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Yan Xiaonan 0 14 of 34 41% 22 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:29
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 40 of 107 37% 41 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Yan Xiaonan 0 18 of 44 40% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 72 of 200 36% 46 of 166 18 of 19 8 of 15 59 of 182 13 of 18 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 56 of 132 42% 37 of 105 7 of 9 12 of 18 48 of 121 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 18 of 48 37% 9 of 35 4 of 5 5 of 8 16 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 24 of 54 44% 18 of 42 2 of 4 4 of 8 21 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Marina Rodriguez 14 of 45 31% 9 of 38 4 of 4 1 of 3 9 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 14 of 34 41% 7 of 26 4 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 40 of 107 37% 28 of 93 10 of 10 2 of 4 34 of 99 6 of 8 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 18 of 44 40% 12 of 37 1 of 1 5 of 6 16 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.

plus 3.5 round bet on Yan Xiaonan
"marina is the pick here because we've only seen yon execute wrestling a wrestle heavy game plan one time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.

Rodriguez by decision
"i'm gonna take marina rodriguez to win i'm gonna take her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.

"i got marina rodriguez i think she's the rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.

plus 250 odds
"i'm going with the ann zhaonan to edge out this decision so let's catch this plus 250"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.

Yan via decision
"this is a coin flip of a fight maybe even again 55 percent uh marina rodriguez at best but i think it's a 50 50 fight and at these odds the clear pick has got to be yan zhaonen"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.

"i think it is mourinho rodriguez for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Yan Xiaonan, expecting a striking affair. He notes Yan's main weakness is grappling, but believes Rodriguez has improved her cardio and striking variety, using more kicks to the body and legs. He thinks Rodriguez is more powerful and tougher, predicting a 30-27 decision where she pieces Yan apart. He also expresses a hot take that Rodriguez will become champion.

"i'm going with marina rodriguez by decision 30 27 she pieces apart yan zhaonan in a competitive fight for three rounds"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 49 of 174 28% 80 of 209 1 of 8 12% 1 1 7:21
Mackenzie Dern 0 144 of 279 51% 148 of 284 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 5 of 17 29% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Mackenzie Dern 0 24 of 49 48% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 22 45% 33 of 48 0 of 1 0% 1 1 4:21
Mackenzie Dern 0 1 of 6 16% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 35 22% 8 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Mackenzie Dern 0 45 of 91 49% 47 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Marina Rodriguez 0 15 of 54 27% 21 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Mackenzie Dern 0 37 of 65 56% 37 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 46 23% 11 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:41
Mackenzie Dern 0 37 of 68 54% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 49 of 174 28% 41 of 158 4 of 10 4 of 6 36 of 155 1 of 3 12 of 16
Mackenzie Dern 144 of 279 51% 72 of 186 39 of 58 33 of 35 124 of 257 20 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 5 of 17 29% 4 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 24 of 49 48% 9 of 31 10 of 12 5 of 6 19 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marina Rodriguez 10 of 22 45% 10 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 9 of 13
Mackenzie Dern 1 of 6 16% 0 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 8 of 35 22% 7 of 31 0 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 45 of 91 49% 28 of 66 8 of 15 9 of 10 37 of 82 8 of 9 0 of 0
4 Marina Rodriguez 15 of 54 27% 12 of 50 1 of 2 2 of 2 11 of 49 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mackenzie Dern 37 of 65 56% 14 of 36 13 of 19 10 of 10 34 of 61 3 of 4 0 of 0
5 Marina Rodriguez 11 of 46 23% 8 of 43 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 37 of 68 54% 21 of 49 8 of 11 8 of 8 33 of 64 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez, calling her the more complete fighter with superior striking and takedown defense. He notes her wins over top competition and Dern's poor takedown accuracy. He has a money line bet on Rodriguez at plus 145. He thinks Dern's only path is submission, but Rodriguez can avoid the ground.

Marina Rodriguez money line at +145 (1 unit)
"I'm picking Marina Rodriguez. I have a money line on her at plus 145."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady, despite being a self-proclaimed Dern hater, picks her to win by submission. He notes that Dern only needs one takedown to finish the fight, and Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and ground game. He references Rodriguez being taken down by multiple opponents and her poor get-up game. Brady thinks Dern will eventually get the takedown and submit her, but he would not bet her as a favorite at these odds.

win by submission
"i will pick mackenzie during for the win and i'll take her to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody leans toward Dern because he believes the fight will eventually hit the ground over five rounds, where Dern's BJJ is leaps and bounds better than Rodriguez's. He notes Rodriguez has a clear striking advantage and Dern's wrestling is not elite, but Dern has shown improvements and can capitalize on scrambles. He suggests live betting Dern after she loses the early rounds, and predicts a third or fourth round submission or a decision.

live betting Dern after early rounds; third or fourth round submission or decision
"i'll go with dern because i think eventually this fight is going to hit the ground and that'll be her moment"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Daniel Levi acknowledges that Marina Rodriguez is a superior striker, comparing her to a young Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but he is concerned about her takedown defense. He notes that Mackenzie Dern's hands have improved under Jason Parillo and she has power, but her path to victory is getting the fight to the mat. He predicts Dern will secure a takedown and finish via submission, though he admits if Dern doesn't submit her early, the fight becomes uncertain.

submission finish
"ultimately i do see mckenzie during getting this fight to the mat and finishing via submission so i'm gonna go with mckenzie dern to submit marina rodriguez"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Jacob is extremely confident in Mackenzie Dern, calling her the lock of the week. He believes her jiu-jitsu is unmatched and that if the fight goes to the ground, she will submit Rodriguez. He dismisses Rodriguez's striking improvements and plans to bet 20 units on Dern at minus 160. He thinks Dern's striking has improved enough to get the fight to the mat.

Mackenzie Dern by submission at +150 (FanDuel); 20 units on Dern money line
"Mackenzie Dern lock of the week for like four or five in a row, I think. I won the 10 units last week. I'm going 20 units on Dern. Let's go after it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The host picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her elite BJJ and ability to secure a takedown against Marina Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down before (e.g., by Amanda Ribas) and that Dern's jiu-jitsu is superior. He believes Dern can remain safe on the feet long enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she will likely find a submission. He also mentions the low variance of grappling compared to striking, favoring the grappler. He predicts a second-round submission.

Dern by submission +150; fight doesn't go to decision -210; Dern by TKO +1400 (mentioned as possible but less likely)
"I gotta go with the grappler in this fight... I'm going to go mackenzie dern via second round submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul is leaning toward Dern, acknowledging that Rodriguez has advantages on the feet but Dern's submission threat and improved striking make her dangerous. He notes Dern's wrestling is not great but she can create chaotic scrambles. He is hesitant because Dern has cost him money before, but he sees her path to victory via submission or decision.

"i'm leaning towards dern right now but i want to hear your take"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by unanimous decision as an underdog. He highlights her striking accuracy, power, and takedown defense (62%). He questions Dern's late start in sparring and believes Rodriguez's experience and reach advantage will be decisive. He advises betting on Rodriguez before odds change.

Rodriguez by unanimous decision; recommends betting on Rodriguez as underdog
"i'm actually going to go with marina rodriguez here as an underdog... i think she's much better than mackenzie durn... if i was you guys i'd get some money on her right now before the odds change"
Cynthia Calvillo - Fight History
LOSS vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loopy Godinez 0 104 of 333 31% 107 of 338 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Cynthia Calvillo 0 87 of 180 48% 93 of 188 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loopy Godinez 0 18 of 83 21% 21 of 87 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Cynthia Calvillo 0 19 of 45 42% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Loopy Godinez 0 38 of 118 32% 38 of 118 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 32 of 54 59% 33 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Loopy Godinez 0 48 of 132 36% 48 of 133 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Cynthia Calvillo 0 36 of 81 44% 36 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loopy Godinez 104 of 333 31% 58 of 249 30 of 64 16 of 20 104 of 333 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 87 of 180 48% 65 of 146 15 of 24 7 of 10 87 of 178 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loopy Godinez 18 of 83 21% 12 of 70 3 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 19 of 45 42% 14 of 37 1 of 4 4 of 4 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Loopy Godinez 38 of 118 32% 21 of 84 13 of 26 4 of 8 38 of 118 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 32 of 54 59% 25 of 43 7 of 9 0 of 2 32 of 52 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Loopy Godinez 48 of 132 36% 25 of 95 14 of 28 9 of 9 48 of 132 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 36 of 81 44% 26 of 66 7 of 11 3 of 4 36 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo picks Lupita Godinez but is not betting due to her unreliable performance against Angela Hill. He notes that when Lupita shows up, she is a big, strong, powerful wrestler with clean boxing, but she needs to be the bully. He thinks she should be able to push Cynthia Calvillo around, but needs to prove herself after the last fight.

"Loopy's the pick if you want a parlayer go for it I I'm just gonna sit tight have her proof herself to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Lupita Godinez but with hesitation due to her poor game plan against Angela Hill where she didn't wrestle. He believes Godinez should win by using her wrestling against Calvillo, who is on a losing streak. He predicts a decision win but expresses distrust in Godinez's consistency.

"give me loopy by decision but I'm done trusting loopy after she decided to to not wrestle on the Angela Hill fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Cody picks Calvillo as a value play. He notes Godinez's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and believes Calvillo has a chance despite her losing streak. He mentions Calvillo's wrestling background and that she has been competitive against top fighters. Cody says he already put $200 on Calvillo earlier in the week and may add more. He calls it a system play based on Pat Mayo's CF model.

Calvillo moneyline at +250
"I think I put like 200 bucks earlier in the week on it but uh I may be adding more"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Godinez. He notes that Calvillo's division switch is a bad sign and that her game doesn't connect. Connor also mentions that Godinez is aggressive and should win.

"Yep. Godinas opened to the minus three 26..."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Jacob is leaning towards Lupita but is wary after being burned by her last fight. He notes that if Lupita uses her wrestling, she can dominate, but if she doesn't, it will be a close fight. He thinks Cynthia Calvillo may be 'broke' with zero confidence, but Lupita's inconsistency makes him hesitant.

"if loopy wants to wrestle she can dominate if she doesn't wrestle it's gonna be a close close fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Godinez has good wrestling and BJJ, but needs to blend takedowns behind her striking. Calvillo has struggled with her striking and confidence, and a recent camp change may not help at 35. Godinez should have a striking advantage and can stuff takedowns. My only concern is Godinez getting stuck in bad positions, but I think she pulls away via decision.

"I think that godinez is the better fighter odds a little bit too wide for me here but I still think she gets her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul picks Godinez but is very hesitant. He criticizes Godinez's poor fight IQ, noting she often abandons her wrestling and strikes instead. He points to her fight against Angela Hill where she didn't wrestle despite having a clear advantage. Paul thinks Calvillo is on a losing streak but has faced tough competition. He says Godinez is talented but unreliable at -300.

Godinez under 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"the pick is gonna end up being on uh on her opponent Lupita godinez but from -300 no we're talking like fourth line Fifth Line low lower on the list"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Lupita Godinez to win by 29-28 split decision. He expects Godinez to land crisper shots on the feet and mix in takedowns in the first two rounds, while Calvillo will come back in the third round. He sees round two as a toss-up but believes Godinez's takedowns will be the difference maker. The prediction is close and acknowledges Calvillo's late surge.

"I'm gonna go with Lupita godinez by 29.28 Split Decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Zane picks Godinez because Calvillo has been mentally in a hole and her game is dysfunctional. He notes that Godinez is crazy and aggressive, which should be enough to win. However, he worries that if Godinez can't get takedowns, she loses confidence in her boxing.

"I'm going to take Godinas. I don't love this fight for her... but Calvillo has been mentally in a hole and I can't pick her."
LOSS vs Nina Nunes
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nina Nunes 0 48 of 139 34% 66 of 159 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:09
Cynthia Calvillo 0 39 of 133 29% 47 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nina Nunes 0 10 of 40 25% 10 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 10 of 37 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nina Nunes 0 9 of 41 21% 27 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Cynthia Calvillo 0 9 of 39 23% 16 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nina Nunes 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:23
Cynthia Calvillo 0 20 of 57 35% 21 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nina Nunes 48 of 139 34% 16 of 86 17 of 26 15 of 27 47 of 138 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 39 of 133 29% 17 of 94 4 of 12 18 of 27 38 of 131 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nina Nunes 10 of 40 25% 4 of 26 1 of 4 5 of 10 10 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 10 of 37 27% 1 of 21 1 of 4 8 of 12 10 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nina Nunes 9 of 41 21% 3 of 28 4 of 7 2 of 6 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 9 of 39 23% 5 of 30 1 of 3 3 of 6 8 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nina Nunes 29 of 58 50% 9 of 32 12 of 15 8 of 11 28 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 20 of 57 35% 11 of 43 2 of 5 7 of 9 20 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Angelo picks Nina Nunes as an underdog, citing Calvillo's decline after the Andrade loss and her quitting on the stool. He believes Nunes is more consistent, tough, and will not break. He notes Calvillo is the more talented fighter but has lost her edge.

"i gotta go with nunes here i think calvillo is definitely the better fighter overall ... but if you look at that entourage loss it took something out of her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Big Brady hesitantly picks Nina Nunes to win by decision. He notes that both fighters are on losing streaks and have question marks: Nunes is 36, coming off a layoff and a loss, while Calvillo is 35, on a three-fight skid, and seems distracted. Stylistically, Nunes has better takedown defense and striking. Brady says he would never bet on this fight but picks Nunes to stuff takedowns and win on the feet.

win by decision
"i guess i'll go with nina nunez here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Cody picks Nina Nunes, citing red flags on both sides but favoring Nunes' striking advantage and improved grappling camp with Amanda Nunes. He notes Calvillo's recent lack of wrestling and poor durability. Cody thinks Nunes can scramble back to her feet and win on the feet.

"i will go with nina nunez there's red flags all over this thing man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Levi passes on this fight, noting that both fighters are in uncertain form. He says Cynthia Calvillo has been quitting on the stool and Nina Nunes had a baby and COVID. He cannot confidently pick a winner.

"I got no idea."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)

The host mentions Nunes as an underdog he likes but wants nothing to do with that fight, so he does not make a pick. He does not provide any analysis or reasoning for either fighter.

"i would say nina nunes as well but i want nothing to do with that fight so i'm not gonna tell you guys to do that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Paul leans toward Nina Nunes as an underdog. He notes that Calvillo hasn't dominated with wrestling at 125 lbs and that if the fight stays standing, Nunes wins. He is considering a shot on the dog, citing Calvillo's recent poor performances and lack of desire.

"i'll i haven't bet it yet but i'm considering a shot on the dog nina nunez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The host picks Cynthia Calvillo, questioning Nina Nunes's focus and commitment. He notes Nunes's easy loss to Mackenzie Dern and believes Calvillo's grappling and recent competition level will lead to a 29-28 decision. He expects Calvillo to pull ahead after a tough first round.

29-28 decision
"i'm going to be going with cynthia calvillo"
LOSS vs Andrea Lee
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 47 of 154 30% 47 of 154 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 84 of 210 40% 85 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 25 of 87 28% 25 of 87 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 43 of 116 37% 44 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 41 of 94 43% 41 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 47 of 154 30% 18 of 99 21 of 46 8 of 9 47 of 154 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 84 of 210 40% 46 of 155 30 of 45 8 of 10 83 of 208 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 25 of 87 28% 11 of 62 10 of 20 4 of 5 25 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 43 of 116 37% 27 of 92 12 of 19 4 of 5 43 of 115 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 22 of 67 32% 7 of 37 11 of 26 4 of 4 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 41 of 94 43% 19 of 63 18 of 26 4 of 5 40 of 93 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, citing her polished striking and comfort on the feet. He notes that Calvillo looks uncomfortable striking and that Lee has improved grappling. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Lee at near even money and thinks she can control the striking exchanges.

moneyline bet at minus 105
"andrea leaves my pick and i do have a moneyline bet at her at minus 105 almost even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo but is hesitant, noting Andrea Lee has superior striking volume and accuracy. However, he highlights Lee's poor takedown defense (57%) and that she has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. Brady believes Calvillo can win by wrestling, but recalls her fight against Chookagian where she didn't wrestle enough, causing doubt.

Calvillo by decision
"i will take alveo though and i will take alvey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody has a gut feeling that Calvillo might lose. He notes that Lee has been working on her wrestling and that Calvillo is 1-2 at 125 lbs. He thinks if Lee can stuff takedowns, she can out-strike Calvillo. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and might take a small shot on Lee.

"i got a bad gut feeling that calvio's actually gonna end up losing this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel Levi picks Cynthia Calvillo, citing her dominant ground game and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents (Roxanne Modafferi, Lauren Murphy, Joanne Calderwood) and believes Calvillo only needs one or two takedowns to win rounds or secure a finish. Levi acknowledges Lee's striking volume but thinks Calvillo's grappling will be the difference.

"give me cynthia calvio to come out here and and probably win the decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Jacob picks Cynthia Calvillo, believing she will dominate on the ground. He thinks Calvillo will get in the pocket, take Lee down, and control the fight. Jacob is a big Calvillo fan and thinks the UFC gave her a winnable matchup after her loss to Andrade.

"i think she absolutely dominates this fight i i'm a big cynthia fan"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Paul believes Calvillo has a massive wrestling advantage and should spam takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee gives up takedowns to everyone. He thinks Calvillo can control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

"i think calvio is the side here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Cynthia Calvillo

The Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision (29-27). He expects Andrea Lee to win the first round on the feet, but Calvillo's takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three will secure the win. Calvillo will get a 10-8 in the third due to dominant ground and pound.

unanimous decision 29-27
"i'm going to be going with cynthia calvillo here and i'm going to be picking her by unanimous decision"
TKO (punches) R1 4:54 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 48 of 86 55% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 75 36% 27 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 48 of 86 55% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 75 36% 27 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 48 of 86 55% 34 of 70 2 of 3 12 of 13 41 of 72 7 of 14 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 75 36% 10 of 52 13 of 18 4 of 5 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 48 of 86 55% 34 of 70 2 of 3 12 of 13 41 of 72 7 of 14 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 75 36% 10 of 52 13 of 18 4 of 5 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo picks Andrade, noting her power, bullying style, and that her losses are only to champions. He believes Andrade's strength and aggression will overwhelm Calvillo, who is more technical but lacks power. Angelo thinks Andrade will bully Calvillo and win.

Angelo likes less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a stoppage. He says he won't touch the moneyline at -280.
"Jessica Andre gets this done bullies the hell out of Cynthia"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Jéssica Andrade to win by decision. He believes Andrade is the better striker with more power and volume, and she should stuff Calvillo's takedowns. He notes Andrade has fought much better competition and expects a dominant performance.

"i'll take jessica andraj to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody is confident Andrade wins, citing her superior strength, pressure, and well-rounded skills. He thinks she will finish Calvillo, who has never been finished in MMA but has shown vulnerabilities. He likes Andrade inside the distance at +150.

Andrade inside the distance (+150)
"i like andrade i like android inside the distance i think she becomes the first woman to finish cynthia calvillo"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Levi picks Jéssica Andrade, acknowledging her power and history of knockouts in the women's divisions. He notes that Andrade's power can override technique, but he questions her motivation after losing two title fights. He respects Cynthia Calvillo's ground game and toughness, but believes if Andrade is mentally focused, she will win. He expresses concern about a potential title-fight letdown.

"if jessica andraj comes out here looking like the just gone we all know and love then i think she's gonna come out here and win this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Jacob picks Calvillo, seeing value at +220. He thinks Calvillo can out-tough Andrade and threaten submissions. Jacob notes that Andrade may not be able to bully Calvillo at flyweight. He admits he doesn't think Calvillo will dominate but sees a path to victory.

Jacob considers including Calvillo in his DraftKings lineup at $7,200. He disagrees with Angelo's less less pick, leaning more more.
"I think there's some real value in Cynthia here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Jéssica Andrade

The host picks Jéssica Andrade via decision. He believes Andrade will march forward, land big shots, and stop takedowns. He thinks Calvillo's wrestling is not good enough to take Andrade down repeatedly. He notes that Andrade has a power advantage and will do damage, but Calvillo is durable. He expects the fight to take place mostly on the feet where Andrade has the edge.

"i'm going to go with andraj be a decision in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul is confident Andrade wins, calling her a 'body snatcher' and noting her power and durability. He acknowledges Calvillo's path to victory via wrestling but doubts she can impose her will. He expects Andrade to dominate.

"i think jessica andrade kills her i don't even think this is going to be particularly close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade over Cynthia Calvillo, citing Andrade's superior striking and grappling. He notes that Calvillo has no finishing ability and cannot keep Andrade down. He expects Andrade to win a decision, possibly with a late-round finish, as she builds momentum. He mentions that Andrade is younger and has fought for titles, while Calvillo couldn't crack the top 10 at strawweight.

decision, good odds on decision
"i'll say a decision for jessica and raj and there might be some good odds on that as well"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 69 of 230 30% 69 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 60 of 197 30% 60 of 197 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 27 of 72 37% 27 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 80 30% 24 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 17 of 71 23% 17 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 78 23% 18 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 69 of 230 30% 45 of 190 11 of 22 13 of 18 68 of 227 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 60 of 197 30% 31 of 134 17 of 46 12 of 17 59 of 196 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 27 of 72 37% 11 of 51 7 of 10 9 of 11 27 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 60 35% 11 of 42 4 of 11 6 of 7 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 80 30% 19 of 71 2 of 5 3 of 4 23 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 17 of 71 23% 8 of 51 6 of 15 3 of 5 17 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 78 23% 15 of 68 2 of 7 1 of 3 18 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 66 33% 12 of 41 7 of 20 3 of 5 21 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.

"the picks calvio by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.

"i'm gonna go with cynthia cavilla calvillo to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.

"I'm going to go with Tran to win this fight via decision as uh you know if this fight does primarily play out on the feet she could absolutely steal it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.

"going to go with cynthia calvio getting the unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Jessica Eye
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo · Jun 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cynthia Calvillo 0 70 of 280 25% 70 of 283 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 113 of 237 47% 150 of 294 4 of 7 57% 0 0 7:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cynthia Calvillo 0 20 of 82 24% 20 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cynthia Calvillo 0 7 of 23 30% 7 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 12 of 18 66% 30 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:47
3 Cynthia Calvillo 0 14 of 55 25% 14 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 23 of 53 43% 26 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
4 Cynthia Calvillo 0 5 of 34 14% 5 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 17 of 30 56% 33 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
5 Cynthia Calvillo 0 24 of 86 27% 24 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 37 of 68 54% 37 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cynthia Calvillo 70 of 280 25% 59 of 261 10 of 17 1 of 2 69 of 276 1 of 4 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 113 of 237 47% 77 of 185 32 of 48 4 of 4 105 of 225 1 of 1 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cynthia Calvillo 20 of 82 24% 16 of 78 4 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 80 0 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 24 of 68 35% 13 of 54 8 of 11 3 of 3 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cynthia Calvillo 7 of 23 30% 4 of 20 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Cynthia Calvillo 14 of 55 25% 14 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 1 14 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 23 of 53 43% 15 of 37 7 of 15 1 of 1 23 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cynthia Calvillo 5 of 34 14% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 17 of 30 56% 14 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Cynthia Calvillo 24 of 86 27% 20 of 77 4 of 9 0 of 0 24 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 37 of 68 54% 26 of 53 11 of 15 0 of 0 33 of 60 1 of 1 3 of 7
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Cynthia Calvillo, emphasizing her opportunistic ground game and finishing ability. He notes that while Jessica Eye may have advantages in boxing and athleticism, Calvillo can capitalize on takedowns and ground control to steal rounds. Levi acknowledges his bias against Eye but believes Calvillo's cardio and opportunistic nature could edge her to a close decision or even a finish.

"I'm gonna slightly lean towards Cynthia Calvillo here and maybe that's my own bias Shack because I tend to pick against Jessica eye all the time and that bad I'm way to work like a charm at flyweight it's been …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jessica Eye

The MMA Guru picks Jessica Eye, citing her reach advantage, size, takedown defense, and superior boxing. He notes that Cynthia Calvillo is 32 and not a young talent, so he favors Eye's experience. He predicts a boring five-round unanimous decision with Eye winning every round.

boring five-round unanimous decision, 50-45 scorecard
"Jessica is gonna win this one. She's got a reach advantage, she's way bigger than Cynthia Calvillo, she's got great takedown defense, she's way better at boxing."
Draw (majority) (29–28, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Dec 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 56 of 140 40% 61 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 78 of 130 60% 112 of 173 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 22 of 53 41% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 32 65% 25 of 37 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:35
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 13 of 39 33% 14 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 44 of 59 74% 73 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 56 of 140 40% 30 of 110 18 of 20 8 of 10 39 of 117 17 of 23 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 78 of 130 60% 51 of 90 17 of 26 10 of 14 30 of 72 2 of 2 46 of 56
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 22 of 53 41% 17 of 48 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 44 8 of 9 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 32 65% 12 of 19 4 of 7 5 of 6 16 of 27 1 of 1 4 of 4
2 Marina Rodriguez 29 of 71 40% 13 of 51 11 of 13 5 of 7 20 of 58 9 of 13 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 13 of 39 33% 5 of 22 4 of 10 4 of 7 12 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 5 of 16 31% 0 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 44 of 59 74% 34 of 49 9 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 42 of 52
WIN vs Cortney Casey
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cynthia Calvillo 0 73 of 176 41% 73 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 82 of 192 42% 82 of 192 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cynthia Calvillo 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 28 of 63 44% 28 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 66 40% 27 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cynthia Calvillo 73 of 176 41% 41 of 136 6 of 8 26 of 32 72 of 175 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 82 of 192 42% 41 of 139 17 of 24 24 of 29 79 of 186 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cynthia Calvillo 24 of 58 41% 14 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 9 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 32 of 62 51% 10 of 37 8 of 11 14 of 14 29 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 52 42% 12 of 38 2 of 3 8 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 28 of 63 44% 15 of 45 7 of 10 6 of 8 28 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 66 40% 15 of 51 2 of 3 10 of 12 26 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 22 of 67 32% 16 of 57 2 of 3 4 of 7 22 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0