UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 11"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 43
Height 5' 5"
Reach 66"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Cory Sandhagen
4.86 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.47 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.15 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Raphael Assunção
3.22 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
2.5 SApM
66.0% Str. Def.
1.65 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
78.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Cory Sandhagen - Fight History
SCHED vs Mario Bautista
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 114 of 265 43% 243 of 399 20 of 37 54% 0 0 10:02
Cory Sandhagen 0 80 of 184 43% 149 of 257 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 46 23% 32 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:52
Cory Sandhagen 0 27 of 53 50% 58 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 33 of 49 67% 73 of 92 8 of 13 61% 0 0 3:43
Cory Sandhagen 0 2 of 9 22% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 48 31% 46 of 80 3 of 8 37% 0 0 1:57
Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 35 40% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 56 37% 31 of 66 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:26
Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 66 51% 61 of 94 6 of 8 75% 0 0 2:04
Cory Sandhagen 0 18 of 44 40% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 114 of 265 43% 86 of 231 13 of 18 15 of 16 79 of 220 22 of 27 13 of 18
Cory Sandhagen 80 of 184 43% 46 of 143 18 of 23 16 of 18 80 of 184 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 46 23% 9 of 42 0 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 27 of 53 50% 14 of 39 4 of 4 9 of 10 27 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 16 of 25 8 of 10 9 of 14
Cory Sandhagen 2 of 9 22% 1 of 6 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 48 31% 12 of 44 1 of 2 2 of 2 13 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 14 of 35 40% 7 of 28 4 of 4 3 of 3 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 56 37% 9 of 42 5 of 6 7 of 8 17 of 52 4 of 4 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 19 of 43 44% 12 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 66 51% 23 of 54 7 of 8 4 of 4 23 of 53 7 of 9 4 of 4
Cory Sandhagen 18 of 44 40% 12 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, acknowledging that Cory Sandhagen is a tough matchup with good skills everywhere. He believes Merab's non-stop chain wrestling and cardio are his biggest weapons, and that Sandhagen is better than Sean O'Malley but still likely to lose. He notes that Sandhagen's cardio slowed against Umar, and that Merab's pressure will be overwhelming.

"Morab's going to be the pick, but I'm not dismissing Cory Sanhagen's ability to make this an ugly fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady thinks the fight will be competitive but clear in favor of Dvalishvili. He notes that Sandhagen has advantages in height, reach, and striking, but Dvalishvili's wrestling and ability to dictate where the fight takes place will be key. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, possibly 49-46 or 48-47. He does not like the line but is not picking against Dvalishvili.

Merab Dvalishvili by decision.
"I like Morav to get it done. I just I just really don't like the line. But give me Rob by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor picks Dvalishvili, agreeing with Zane that Sandhagen's physicality is a major concern. He highlights that Sandhagen's best path is to pressure Merab and keep him on the back foot, but even then, Merab's wrestling and durability make it hard to win a decision. Connor also notes that Sandhagen lacks finishing power at the highest level, making it unlikely he stops Merab.

"Yeah, you really do. So yeah, I'm glad they made this fight. I don't think it'll be boring, but I just do not at my core believe that Corey Sandhagen can go out there and fight a busy fight without …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host expects a classic Dvalishvili performance with takedowns and control time, possibly threatening submissions, but Sandhagen will be too slippery to catch, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

"I think we'll see a classic Dvalishvili performance here where he will get his takedowns, he'll get his control time... I think Sandhagen will be too slimy to catch in anything of substance and that will lead to Dvalishvili winning …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his relentless pace, takedowns, and improving striking. He notes Cory Sandhagen's lack of finishing ability and tendency to leave fights close. He predicts a 49-46 or 48-47 decision.

"I'm going with Merab. Sandhagen's good. I think he'll do better than O'Malley in the rematch. We're looking at a decision here. 48-47, 49-46 Merab."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Dvalishvili because he believes Sandhagen lacks the physicality to consistently win scrambles and wrestling exchanges against Merab. He notes that Sandhagen has struggled against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and that Merab's endless cardio and improved striking make him a nightmare matchup. Zane also points out that even if Sandhagen has a good round or two, he is unlikely to finish Merab and will likely be worn down over five rounds.

"I just cannot fundamentally believe that Corey Sandhagen has the physicality at a very raw base level to tie up with Marabh Dvala Shavili all the time."
KO R2 4:08 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 54 of 87 62% 92 of 149 2 of 2 100% 0 1 5:07
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 6 of 9 66% 8 of 11 2 of 5 40% 0 1 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 31 of 39 79% 53 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 2 of 2 100% 3 of 3 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:04
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 23 of 48 47% 39 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:30
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 4 of 7 57% 5 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 54 of 87 62% 33 of 65 2 of 2 19 of 20 24 of 43 0 of 0 30 of 44
Deiveson Figueiredo 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 31 of 39 79% 22 of 30 1 of 1 8 of 8 10 of 13 0 of 0 21 of 26
Deiveson Figueiredo 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cory Sandhagen 23 of 48 47% 11 of 35 1 of 1 11 of 12 14 of 30 0 of 0 9 of 18
Deiveson Figueiredo 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sandhagen (-500), Figueiredo (+380)

Round 1
The final bout to grace Wells Fargo Arena on this Saturday features Sandhagen, a longtime bantamweight contender who has picked up an impressive collection of scalps while not-so-patiently waiting his chance at UFC gold, against a man in Figueiredo who has already worn the flyweight version of that hardware twice, and hopes a win over “The Sandman” will allow him to skip the line at age 38. Overseeing this ultra-high stakes clash will be veteran referee Dan Miragliotta, who thankfully has shown no sign of the clapper-versus-horn confusion that plagued him at UFC Kansas City last week. Both contenders are in orthodox stance, and it is the taller Sandhagen who takes the front foot in the early going. Figueiredo scores with a calf kick, and Sandhagen clinches and moves his foe to the fence. They jockey for position there, punctuated by a few short strikes, before disengaging. Figueiredo lands a solid uppercut on the break. They move back to the center of the Octagon and Figueiredo lands another uppercut, then changes levels and pulls the action to the canvas. Figueiredo moves to Sandhagen’s back in a flash, and looks close to securing back mount before Sandhagen tripods and elevates his hips, trying to get the Brazilian to slide off the top. He succeeds, but Figueiredo tries to hop back onto his back and actually threatens to do so for a moment. He bails and Sandhagen lands on top. Figueiredo looks for a heel hook, but Sandhagen gets to a safe spot and smashes Figueiredo with hammerfists. Figueiredo gives up the leglock and scrambles to get up, but Sandhagen ends up on top again in half guard. Figueiredo again attacks a leg, and again Sandhagen crushes the space, gets his leg out of danger and punishes “Deus da Guerra” with some thudding ground-and-pound. The round ends with Sandhagen above Figueiredo, calmly looking for openings to punch.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 2
Sandhagen claims the center of the cage to open Round 2 and Figueiredo meets him there. They exchange low kicks that land and punching combinations that mostly glance or miss. Figueiredo changes levels for a slick single-leg, dragging Sandhagen to the floor. There, they briefly find themselves in a “leglock race” position that must have Ryan Hall shaking his head in Sandhagen’s corner. They return to their feet and moments later, it’s Sandhagen who times his man nicely for a level change, depositing the former flyweight champ on his rear and setting up in his guard. Sandhagen throws a salvo of punches with both hands, but loses top position a few moments later and ends up with Figueiredo standing over him out of half guard.
Sandhagen reaches for a leglock from the bottom and their legs become entwined as Sandhagen jumps back into his opponent’s guard. Sandhagen sweeps to top position and throws a couple of punches before it becomes apparent that Figueiredo is done fighting. Figueiredo taps in obvious pain as Miragliotta jumps in and waves off the fight. Replay shows that the entanglement of Sandhagen’s right leg and Figuereido’s left resulted in a knee injury to the Brazilian.
It surely isn’t how they drew it up in the gym, but as Sandhagen stands alone to have his hand raised while his stricken opponent is helped back to the locker rooms, he has made a solid case for at shot at the belt in his next fight.

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Deiveson Figueiredo R2 4:08 via TKO (Knee Injury)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo is very confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing his superior striking, footwork, and durability. He believes Figueiredo's improved cardio and wrestling at bantamweight will not be enough to overcome Sandhagen's skills. He expects Sandhagen to win eight out of ten times and would bet if the odds drop to -300 or better.

Would bet if odds drop to -300 or better
"Cory Sandhagen is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady is confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing a rough matchup for Figueiredo. He notes that Figueiredo is undersized at bantamweight, his power hasn't translated, and he struggles with volume. Sandhagen has a great chin, cardio, and volume advantage, and will outland Figueiredo significantly. Figueiredo relies on moments, but Sandhagen is durable and hard to take down. Brady expects Sandhagen to pick Figueiredo apart over five rounds.

"I like Sanhagen here, and I think he picks apart Figuredo over the course of five rounds."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Sandhagen can beat Figueiredo in every phase, including on the ground. He highlights Sandhagen's calmness in grappling positions, similar to Yan's ability to stall Figueiredo's back takes. Connor notes that Figueiredo's power is real but his speed is declining, and Sandhagen's size and durability make him a tough target. He calls it a straightforward pick but expects a competitive fight.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think like Sandhagen could end up being able to beat Figueiredo in every phase of this fight, including on the ground."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

This is a perfect stylistic matchup for Sandhagen. Figueiredo may grapple early but can't keep it up for more than two rounds. Sandhagen's output, cardio, volume, and grappling will allow him to win at least three of the last four rounds and win a decision.

"I think that this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Sanhagen. Figedo may look to implement some grappling early, but I don't think he can do it for longer than two rounds, which makes me believe that Sanhagen can really …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen to win by TKO in round four, possibly due to a doctor stoppage from swelling. He believes Sandhagen's range, footwork, and jab will frustrate Figueiredo, who struggles with taller opponents. He compares it to Moreno's performance but expects Sandhagen to do more damage. He notes that Sandhagen has a good chin and can survive knockdowns. He thinks the odds are crazy and Sandhagen should be a -250 favorite.

TKO in round 4, doctor stoppage possible, should be -250 favorite
"I'm going to go with Cory Sandhagen. He's suspiciously good at not getting cracked by KO blows."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Zane sees Sandhagen as a steady, adaptable technician who can fight well wherever the fight goes. He notes that Figueiredo's low output and reliance on singular moments of offense won't work against Sandhagen over five rounds. Zane also points out that Sandhagen's size and calm grappling defense will neutralize Figueiredo's takedowns, similar to how Yan handled them. He acknowledges Figueiredo's power but believes Sandhagen's consistency and volume will carry him to a decision win.

Odds are possibly a bit wide; Sandhagen at -513, Figueiredo at +392. Zane says Sandhagen could easily be -300 but gets nervous when numbers get that high.
"It's very difficult for me to envision outside of a knockout or submission, both of which have basically never happened to Corey Sandhagen, how Figueiredo could possibly beat him over five rounds."
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 71 of 159 44% 80 of 172 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Cory Sandhagen 0 98 of 187 52% 123 of 219 5 of 13 38% 0 0 5:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 17 of 34 50% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:39
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 16 of 32 50% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Cory Sandhagen 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:55
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 17 of 27 62% 20 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:25
4 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 30 of 65 46% 32 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
5 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 12 of 25 48% 32 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 71 of 159 44% 26 of 94 18 of 32 27 of 33 71 of 158 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 98 of 187 52% 48 of 124 27 of 39 23 of 24 96 of 182 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 17 of 34 50% 4 of 16 4 of 7 9 of 11 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 15 of 28 53% 8 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 16 of 32 50% 6 of 16 4 of 9 6 of 7 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 24 of 42 57% 11 of 27 7 of 9 6 of 6 23 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 30 40% 2 of 13 2 of 7 8 of 10 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 17 of 27 62% 2 of 6 7 of 13 8 of 8 17 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Umar Nurmagomedov 20 of 53 37% 11 of 43 7 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 30 of 65 46% 21 of 55 5 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Umar Nurmagomedov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 12 of 25 48% 6 of 18 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov because of his elite wrestling and chain takedowns. He notes Sandhagen has been taken down by everyone who tried, and despite being more well-rounded, he doesn't see Sandhagen defending the takedowns. He expects Nurmagomedov to cruise to a decision.

"I think Umar just cruises here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady believes Umar is a future champion and that this is a winnable stylistic matchup. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but is still suspect, and Umar should have no problem taking the fight to the ground and controlling it. He predicts Umar wins by decision, acknowledging Sandhagen is being disrespected by the odds.

"I think Umar's going to have no problem getting this fight down to the ground and once Umar gets on top there's probably a really good chance he stays there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his wrestling and top control as key advantages. He notes that Umar is a 28-year-old Russian talent with solid top pressure and positional soundness, though his wrestling isn't as dominant as Khabib's. Cody believes Umar will use takedowns to neutralize Sandhagen's striking and win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges the line is wide but trusts the Dagestani game plan.

"I got to go with the OV greatness here and the Russian fighter to hopefully just land those takedowns get the control time and eventually get the unanimous decision Victory."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel is torn on this fight. He acknowledges Umar's undefeated record and the Dagestani mystique, especially in Abu Dhabi, but questions his level of competition. He notes Sandhagen's elite resume and improvements since the Yan loss, including increased takedown attempts. Ultimately, he reluctantly picks Umar due to the location and potential, but admits he has no clear read and considers it a dog or pass from a betting perspective.

"I'm gonna go Umar reluctantly but like Umar needs to prove it to me against this level of competition man he's never seen anything like this before"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov's overall skill set will allow him to stay away from Sandhagen's unorthodox striking. He will eventually resort to wrestling, keeping Sandhagen on his back and grinding out a decision win.

"I think Nag's overall skill site here will allow him to stay away from the dangers that the unorthodox striking approach of San Haagen poses and I think we'll see Naga made of eventually resort to his wrestling keeping San …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his wrestling and the fact that Sandhagen has struggled against elite grapplers. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but there are levels, and Umar's striking is also coming along. Paul expects Umar to mix in takedowns and control the fight, similar to what Belal Muhammad does. He mentions the line is wide but still sides with Umar.

"I think umar's uh about to uh come knocking tell tell suar Shan he's coming."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov over Cory Sandhagen, believing Sandhagen is too weak despite his technique. He thinks Umar's size and strength will allow him to hold Sandhagen down, especially in Abu Dhabi where standups are rare. He notes Sandhagen's lack of power and poor wrestling compared to Umar. He predicts a boring 49-46 decision for Umar.

decision
"I'm going to go with Umar I'm going to go with Umar sadly I like Cory sandhagen I just think he ain't got enough power"
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 34 of 84 40% 132 of 211 7 of 7 100% 1 0 19:38
Rob Font 0 9 of 49 18% 25 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 8 of 26 30% 27 of 51 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:43
Rob Font 0 5 of 22 22% 6 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 7 of 15 46% 38 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:41
Rob Font 0 0 of 7 0% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 10 of 24 41% 27 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
Rob Font 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 6 of 11 54% 29 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:41
Rob Font 0 0 of 4 0% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Cory Sandhagen 0 3 of 8 37% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:50
Rob Font 0 0 of 6 0% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 34 of 84 40% 30 of 79 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 47 0 of 1 24 of 36
Rob Font 9 of 49 18% 5 of 43 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 44 0 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 19 0 of 1 3 of 6
Rob Font 5 of 22 22% 2 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 17 0 of 3 1 of 2
2 Cory Sandhagen 7 of 15 46% 6 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 8
Rob Font 0 of 7 0% 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Cory Sandhagen 10 of 24 41% 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 14 0 of 0 8 of 10
Rob Font 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8
Rob Font 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Cory Sandhagen 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 4
Rob Font 0 of 6 0% 0 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo picks Cory Sandhagen, citing his active striking, fluid combinations, and solid BJJ. He notes that Rob Font is a gritty boxer with a solid chin but lacks power and is on the back nine of his career. Angelo believes Sandhagen will make it a true MMA fight by mixing in wrestling, and that the catchweight benefits Sandhagen as the larger fighter. He also points out that Font is stepping up on short notice and that Sandhagen dominated Chito Vera, who is more dangerous than Font.

"Corey's the pick and he's a very very confident pick for me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady is very confident in Sandhagen, citing Rob Font's age (36), short notice, and accumulated damage from recent fights like the Marlon Vera beating where Font was dropped multiple times. He believes Sandhagen's diverse striking and submission threat will overwhelm Font, and that Font's durability has declined. He predicts Sandhagen will either dominate to a 50-43 decision or become the first to knock Font out, possibly with a head kick or knee.

Sandhagen by KO/TKO or decision; first to knock out Rob Font
"I like San Hagen to finish Rob Fawn and be the first one to knock him out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen due to his blend of striking and takedowns, plus a full camp preparing for Umar Nurmagomedov. He notes Font's short notice and history of being dropped (five times in two fights) as vulnerabilities. Cody believes Sandhagen can mix in takedowns and strike effectively, though he acknowledges Font's elite striking and volume. He also mentions betting Sandhagen by knockout at +225.

Sandhagen by KO +225; under 120.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I took sandhagen by knockout plus 225... it's the only bet I've made so far"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Daniel Levi is confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing his evolution into a well-rounded fighter with improved wrestling and durability. He notes Sandhagen's killer resume and recent performances against Song Yadong and Chito Vera as evidence of his growth. Levi believes Sandhagen's fight IQ and length will be key, and that he will avoid trading in the pocket with Font's dangerous jab. He sees Sandhagen as a future title contender and expects him to shine in the main event.

Mentions the line opened at -200 and is now -340, but does not recommend betting at that price. No prop bets or finishing predictions explicitly stated.
"I think Corey sandag is going to shine in the main event."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

James is very confident Sandhagen dominates. He thinks Sandhagen can do whatever he wants—strike, takedown, submit, or knock out Font. He believes Font's chin is done and predicts a knockout in the second or third round. He notes Sandhagen's dynamism and one-shot power.

Sandhagen by knockout
"Corey Sandhagen via knockout is my prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen has an unorthodox style that blends wrestling and striking, and he's made for five rounds. Font has a great comeback win over Yanez, but Sandhagen's style will be too unorthodox for Font to get going. Sandhagen eats damage well and counters effectively. The fight likely goes the distance, so over 4.5 rounds is my favorite prop, but Sandhagen gets his hand raised. The line is too wide to bet heavily, and there is value on Font at these odds.

over 4.5 rounds, value on Font at current line
"over four and a half will probably be my favorite uh prediction for this fight but I still think that sandhagen gets his hand raise line is just too wide for me to get you know ahead of myself"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Sandhagen's full camp and wrestling advantage. He notes Font's short notice and chin issues, but expects a competitive fight if it goes the distance. Paul leans towards Sandhagen by knockout, though he respects both fighters.

"I mean if this goes 25 minutes I can definitely see it being pretty competitive... but I see San Hagen knocking him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The host picks Cory Sandhagen confidently, calling him a cerebral, diverse striker in his prime. He believes Sandhagen will pick Font apart with superior technique and defense. He notes Font is 36 and while dangerous, Sandhagen is a better mixed martial artist. He predicts a unanimous decision but does not rule out a head kick knockout. He recommends Sandhagen as a parlay piece and expects the line to rise.

unanimous decision; possible head kick knockout; line opened -256, now -312; parlay piece
"give me Corey sandhagen to take over this fight as it goes on I'll I'll say unanimous decision for Corey sandhagen"
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 58 of 158 36% 73 of 177 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:09
Marlon Vera 0 128 of 280 45% 187 of 378 3 of 12 25% 0 0 7:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 32 of 69 46% 47 of 99 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:30
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 6 of 15 40% 9 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 18 of 29 62% 55 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
5 Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 36 38% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Marlon Vera 0 22 of 48 45% 29 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 58 of 158 36% 28 of 105 13 of 29 17 of 24 53 of 152 5 of 5 0 of 1
Marlon Vera 128 of 280 45% 84 of 226 16 of 23 28 of 31 107 of 241 2 of 3 19 of 36
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 32 of 69 46% 20 of 55 2 of 3 10 of 11 18 of 41 0 of 0 14 of 28
2 Cory Sandhagen 6 of 15 40% 4 of 10 0 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 18 of 29 62% 14 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 22 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Cory Sandhagen 20 of 56 35% 8 of 37 4 of 8 8 of 11 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 32 of 67 47% 17 of 48 6 of 9 9 of 10 32 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 13 of 38 34% 6 of 25 4 of 10 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 24 of 67 35% 19 of 59 2 of 4 3 of 4 23 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Cory Sandhagen 14 of 36 38% 6 of 22 5 of 9 3 of 5 10 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 1
Marlon Vera 22 of 48 45% 14 of 40 4 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sandhagen (-165), Vera (+140)

Round 1
The UFC knew what it was doing when it put this fight together, and made sure fans would appreciate it by moving it from the UFC Apex to an 18,000-seat arena in San Antonio. Bantamweight greatness looms, and Vera (20-7-1, 14-6 UFC) would like nothing more than to put Sandhagen (15-4, 8-3 UFC) away and possibly earn a crack at gold. “The Sandman” is no easy out, having never been stopped with strikes, so a back-and-forth, blood-and-guts battle may loom for the next 25 minutes. Referee Dan Miragliotta is in it for the long haul, and the fighters are ready to handle their business, electing to not bump fists before launching them at one another’s faces. Sandhagen leads off with several range-finding jabs and low kicks, and he punches into Vera’s raised hands. Sandhagen walks “Chito” down and kicks at his lead leg a few times, and Vera absorbs a one-two on the dome while holding off on retaliating. Sandhagen drives Vera back to the wall with a left, and Vera strings two jabs into a chipping kick. Sandhagen works low kicks into jabs, and Vera pushes forth a one-two when “Chito” chants echo throughout the building. Vera hand-fights as Sandhagen walks forward calmly, and he allows Sandhagen to score on him repeatedly. Sandhagen ducks a jab to loose a solid left hook, and Vera takes it on the chin and subsequently absorbs another. Sandhagen bears down on his man with a few punches and a head kick while Vera escapes, and Vera he swats away a few punches that zip at him. Sandhagen leaps at his foe with a jump knee, and Vera parries it and is forced to defend a takedown effort. Sandhagen smoothly trips Vera’s leg out and plants him on his seat, and he postures up and hammers Vera with punches and elbows. Vera closes his guard as he gets shoved to the wall with his neck trapped at the corner of the floor and the fence. Sandhagen pummels “Chito” with elbows, and Vera replies with a few on his back to split open a cut on the top of Sandhagen’s forehead. Sandhagen continues to bombard his downed adversary with elbows as Vera looks to kick him off, but the listless Vera blocks the majority of them and seems content to remain on his back. Sandhagen ends the round with several more pounding elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 2
The bantamweights meet in the middle, and Sandhagen is the aggressor right out of the gate. They trade front kicks, and Vera is backed up to the wall as Sandhagen opens up with a right hand. Vera aims a punch to the body, and he front kicks and chops at Sandhagen’s lead calf a few times to slow him. Sandhagen blitzes with a few uppercuts, and he secures a single-leg takedown and puts “Chito” on his back. Vera defends with a guillotine choke before he even hits his seat, and he releases it without burning his arms out as Sandhagen steps over to half guard. Sandhagen starts to drop down left hands and elbows as Vera is pinned to the floor, and his top control is smothering and frustrating for the Ecuadorian. Vera turns to his side as he eats elbows, and Sandhagen allows him to do that so that he can posture up and drill him with punches. Vera hooks a foot beneath his elbow to flirt with a heel hook, and Sandhagen lowers himself down and takes side control on the side to continue his attack. Vera turns once more, nearly giving up his back as he attempts to escape, and he leans back down when Sandhagen’s elbows start to have an appreciable effect. Sandhagen looks to isolate Vera’s right arm, but he cannot hold it as Vera slides out and explodes to his feet. Vera gets off a front kick to the chest, and he checks a calf kick. They trade jabs, and Sandhagen follows one with an uppercut that gets Vera’s attention. Sandhagen reaches his man with punches on the outside of the guard, and Vera misses when retaliating. Vera catches a body kick, and he lets it go when Sandhagen posts off his other arm and fights back up. Vera walks forward without throwing much in the way of offense, and Sandhagen dodges the strikes that come at him before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 3
“Chito” rushes to the center of the cage to start off, having dropped the first two rounds unquestionably. Vera does not throw as Sandhagen is active from a distance, and he finally chambers and fires a head kick that is blocked. Sandhagen replies with a few long jabs, and Vera answers that with a front kick to the sternum. Vera reaches a left hand over the guard, and it is one-and-done while Sandhagen switches stances constantly and prods with punches and kicks. A blocked from kick from Sandhagen causes him to fall over, and when he climbs back up, Vera meets him with a thudding calf kick that stuns Sandhagen momentarily. Vera stomps the front knee and reaches with his left hand, and he kicks the body. Vera stuffs an oncoming takedown and makes his foe pay with a front kick, but Sandhagen strings together a few punches and a body kick to respond. Vera drills his opponent with a one-two, and Sandhagen walks through it and snaps the head back with an uppercut. As Vera loops a left, Sandhagen changes levels but cannot complete the takedown. Vera pushes off and starts to walk Sandhagen down, and they trade right hands. Sandhagen swipes at him with a clean left hook, and Vera tries to give him one back but Sandhagen is faster and beats him to the punch. They both get off front kicks in an exchange, and Vera goes up high with a kick that slams into the shoulder. Vera jabs to the body, and Sandhagen’s looping uppercut finds its home again. Vera swings while Sandhagen fires punches at him, and they miss while Sandhagen’s rangier blows connect. “Chito” jumps forward with a front kick, and he stalks after Sandhagen and has his lead leg kicked for it. At the waning seconds, Vera jumps at his opponent with a knee, but Sandhagen is feet away at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, and Sandhagen strikes first with a front kick, and he turns through with momentum to land a spinning back kick. Sandhagen punches his way forward with an uppercut, and he charges for a double. Vera stands him up and dings him with a knee, but Sandhagen tries again and fail once more. When they separate, Sandhagen gets off a few punches before ducking for a double, and Vera’s sprawl is excellent as he remains on his feet. Sandhagen digs a left to the liver and moves actively and frequently to not stand still in front of his opponent. Vera attempts to cut angles and back Sandhagen off, but “The Sandman” connects with several punches and has a flying knee bounce of Vera’s raised arms. Vera lands one single jab, and Sandhagen strings three punches and a low kick together – but the kick is checked. Sandhagen jabs, staying elusive and switching stances relentlessly. Vera cannot seem to lock him down or find the timing, and he swings with a left hook that Sandhagen dodges. Vera kicks the calf hard, and that kick is checked. Sandhagen swipes with a left hook, and Vera chains a few punches to the body up to a few to the head. Sandhagen jabs, switches stances, and jabs with the other lead hand, flustering “Chito” with his awkward movement and timing. Sandhagen loops a left over the guard, and he sits down on a low kick that Vera cannot defend. The crowd is extremely restless after the relative lack of action compared to its initial promise, as fans start whistling and holding up illuminated cellphones. Vera is similarly irritated, trying and failing to chase down and corner the Colorado native. Vera reaches his man with a front kick and a left hand, but Sandhagen is able to block the subsequent efforts. Vera spins with a kick before the horn, and the audience is not amused.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 5
The last round of this disappointing – from an action standpoint, not tactically – headliner begins, and Sandhagen is happy to pick up where he left off. Sandhagen pushes the pace a little with a few heavier jabs after Vera lands flush a few times, and he shoots for a takedown. Vera stuffs it and takes a knee square in the midsection. Vera is tripped out and tackled to the mat, and he tries to throw up upkicks and may have landed an illegal blow to a grounded Sandhagen in the process. Sandhagen fights off a high guard and submission setup, and he allows Vera to roll laterally so that he can lower himself into the guard. Sandhagen is comfortable taking top position, and Vera kicks him in the chest and gets away with another slapping foot to the downed Sandhagen’s face. Vera explodes to his feet at the midpoint of the final frame, and Sandhagen lines up several punches to back Vera off. “Chito” tosses out a half-hearted leg kick, and he turns to fire one to the body. Vera knocks Sandhagen back with two punches, but “The Sandman” is not concerned as he gets right back to pressuring the pressure fighter. Sandhagen keeps changing stances and jabbing and poking at Vera with feet and fists, and he dodges and parries the lumbering but looping punches that come at him. Vera jumps forward with a left hook, and Sandhagen replies in kind. Vera reaches at the end of a jabbing punch, only to be met with Sandhagen’s short combination. Sandhagen kicks high off the guard, and Vera spins with a kick to the ribs. Vera pressures, and he staves off a rushing double. Vera catches a kick and slams his foot into the body from an odd angle, and he takes Sandhagen from behind and pushes him to the wall. Vera connects with a solid elbow, and he pours it on with high kicks from both legs, swinging punches and kicks, and anything else he can muster. Instead of throwing this all during the first 24-plus minutes of the match, Vera saved it for one final, desperate effort, and Sandhagen blocks or dodges the worst of it. As Vera charges like a bull, Sandhagen points at him, and the last horn blows to put an end to the less-than-thrilling main attraction. In his post-fight interview, Sandhagen states that he would “feel slimy” if he asked for a title shot over Merab Dvalishvili, so he prepares a line and challenges the Georgian to a fight. If that comes together, we will be here for it. Next week, there is a break from the UFC – but there will be Fight Circus, so stay tuned for coverage on that – and we return on April 8 with UFC 287. We will also be for here for that, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Marlon Vera via Split Decision (47-48, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo picks Sandhagen because he is younger, durable, and has a versatile striking style with sneaky power. He notes that Vera's recent wins came against older, declining fighters like Rob Font, Dominic Cruz, and Frankie Edgar, and that Sandhagen is a different challenge. He believes Sandhagen's weird movements and toughness will neutralize Vera's power, and that Vera's habit of losing early before finding a finish won't work against Sandhagen. He admits he has never correctly picked a Vera fight but thinks this is where Vera's luck runs out.

"I gotta go with Corey here because he is durable and I think that insane power of Cheeto is gonna matter as much on somebody like Corey because I don't see Corey stopping."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera as a dog, arguing that while Sandhagen is the better overall fighter with more volume and movement, Vera is a 'moment winner' who can land big shots and sway judges. He notes Vera's ability to get outstruck but still win rounds by landing damaging blows, as seen in the Rob Font fight. Brady believes Vera has 25 minutes to find Sandhagen's chin and predicts a fourth-round knockout, though he acknowledges a close decision is possible.

Vera by KO/TKO in round 4
"I'm gonna take Vera here for the doll as a dog and say that either he does find the chin of Corey sandhagen at some point in this fight... I'll say vera for a fourth round knockout win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen based on pure volume and fast starting ability. He notes Sandhagen lands a high number of significant strikes (169 vs Yanez, 128 vs Dillashaw) and that Vera is a slow starter who often drops the first round. He believes Sandhagen will bank the early rounds and win a decision, though he acknowledges Vera's durability and late-round finishing ability. He suggests betting Sandhagen by decision to improve the line.

Sandhagen by decision; Sandhagen over 107.5 significant strikes; fight goes over 2.5 rounds
"I will go with Corey sanderhagen based on pure volume"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Connor sees Sandhagen as a heavily upgraded version of the opponents Vera has been beating (Rob Font, Dominick Cruz). He believes Sandhagen's durability, conditioning, adaptability, and elusive defense will be too much for Vera's 'anti-process' style. He compares it to Yoel Romero vs Robert Whittaker, suggesting Sandhagen is Vera's Whittaker.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen opened -163, currently -172; Vera opened +143, currently +141. Notes gamblers favor Sandhagen.
"I think Corey Sandhagen is Cheeto's Robert Whitaker, if we're sticking to the Yoel comparison."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Jacob picks Vera, noting that he was a former hater but converted after Vera beat Rob Font. He argues that Vera is excellent at making reads over time and capitalizing, and that Sandhagen is hittable because he stands in front of opponents and doesn't move his head. He thinks Sandhagen's toughness means he gets hit, and Vera's power at bantamweight is a serious threat. He predicts Vera will find a shot and finish Sandhagen, possibly by submission in the third round.

Vera by submission in round 3 (speculative, not a bet)
"I think it's going to be one of those Cheeto fights where it's going to look like Corey's winning he's winning he's winning oh my God Corey's knocked out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The host believes Sandhagen is the best puzzle for Vera since his winning streak, citing Sandhagen's ability to keep up with Vera's cardio and put together a full MMA game. He notes Sandhagen is defensively responsible enough to avoid big strikes and can tie Vera up in the clinch if needed. He expects Sandhagen to get off his own game from distance and allow the judges to see it in his favor, predicting Sandhagen wins by decision despite possibly dropping a round or two.

"I think that Corey sandagan is the best puzzle for varus since he's been on this winning streak"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen over Vera, arguing that Sandhagen is much better than Vera's recent opponents like Cruz and Font. He highlights Sandhagen's diverse attack (leg kicks, body shots, takedowns) and toughness, believing he can avoid Vera's power and win a decision. He notes Vera's ability to find finishes but thinks Sandhagen's movement and durability will carry him.

"I'm going with Corey sandhagen over Marlon Vera... I think sandhagen's going to be chopping that leg early on front kicking the body jab into the body and moving mixing it up against Marlon Vera"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Zane picks Sandhagen because Vera is scary but has recent losses to Jose Aldo and Song Yadong. He notes Sandhagen is harder to track and predict than Font or Cruz, and Vera's clinch wrestling is less of a threat than Dillashaw's. He expects Sandhagen to be elusive enough to win, though Vera could steal rounds with damage.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen -172, Vera +141. Notes the line is slowly getting wider toward Sandhagen.
"I have to pick Sandhagen too. Vera is scary right now... but Sandhagen is dangerous and dynamic enough."
WIN vs Song Yadong
TKO (doctor stoppage) R4 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 94 of 222 42% 130 of 259 1 of 14 7% 0 0 3:47
Song Yadong 0 54 of 145 37% 130 of 224 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 52 36% 30 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:46
Song Yadong 0 14 of 28 50% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 21 of 52 40% 24 of 55 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:48
Song Yadong 0 15 of 44 34% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 29 of 63 46% 30 of 64 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:32
Song Yadong 0 13 of 48 27% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 25 of 55 45% 46 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:41
Song Yadong 0 12 of 25 48% 45 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 94 of 222 42% 62 of 186 17 of 21 15 of 15 86 of 213 5 of 6 3 of 3
Song Yadong 54 of 145 37% 36 of 125 13 of 15 5 of 5 44 of 132 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 19 of 52 36% 10 of 43 7 of 7 2 of 2 18 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0
Song Yadong 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Cory Sandhagen 21 of 52 40% 14 of 43 2 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
Song Yadong 15 of 44 34% 11 of 39 4 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 40 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Cory Sandhagen 29 of 63 46% 21 of 54 3 of 4 5 of 5 27 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Song Yadong 13 of 48 27% 8 of 42 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 25 of 55 45% 17 of 46 5 of 6 3 of 3 22 of 52 0 of 0 3 of 3
Song Yadong 12 of 25 48% 8 of 21 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cory Sandhagen vs. Yadong Song
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sandhagen (-195), Song (+165)

Round 1
with top-five ramifications, serves as the only match between ranked competitors on this 13-fight billing. Sandhagen (14-4, 7-3 UFC) took nearly a year off after his failed bid for the interim 135-pound strap, while Song (19-6-1, 1 NC; 8-1-1 UFC) is a younger man on the rise at 24 years of age. Receiving the honor of reffing the final fracas of the night is Herb Dean, who laces up his running shoes to keep up with these two fist-first fighters. Before throwing down, the two slap hands and bump fists with the intention of keeping things on the up-and-up. Sandhagen starts out switching stances multiple times in the opening seconds, and he punches his way into a takedown attempt. He bowls Song into the wall, but there is no takedown to come from it. Song defends with a few knees up the middle, and one bumps into the cup. Sandhagen tells Dean he is good to go and does not want to lose position, and they do not break. Song pushes off with a pair of hooks, and gets backed with a jab to the body. Sandhagen spins with a wheel kick that bounces off the guard, and he falls to the mat. Song does not follow him, and he lets Sandhagen stand up so that he can drill him with a left hand. They clinch up, and Song elbows once to force a separation. Sandhagen bullies his way into a takedown effort, and Song bowls him over and puts Sandhagen on his back. Sandhagen plays guard off his back, setting up a possible submission, and then bailing on it all to stand up. “Kung Fu Kid” remains on his back, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke to force Sandhagen to lower himself to the ground. Sandhagen gets out of the sticky situation by wriggling out, and they tie up against the wire. Sandhagen elbows hard, and he ducks back right before two big punches reach him. Sandhagen winds up with a loud liver kick, and Song takes it flush without batting an eye. They trade jabs, and a fake takedown try forces a sprawl that makes Song fall to his knees. Sandhagen lets him up and starts piercing the guard with jabs, and he blocks the follow-up counters that fly his way. Another fake takedown draws an exaggerated defensive reaction from his opponent, and Sandhagen lets him up to jab his way to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
The fighters are amped up to get back to it, and Dean clocks them in and has to step back fast. Song advances straight ahead, and Sandhagen is moving side to side while jabbing. Sandhagen leaps in the air with a knee that misses, and he gets struck with a straight right hand down the pipe. Sandhagen scores a low kick and keeps his jab in Song’s face, and Song jumps through it with a power left hand. Sandhagen snaps the head back with a jab, and Song sits down on a left hand that makes Sandhagen stagger back to the wall. Sandhagen gathers his thoughts and goes after another flying knee, but it is not there for him. He does throw to the head and body to mix things up as he gets his wits about him, and he changes levels to take Song down. Song scrambles ahis way upright again and makes his man pay with a short right hand, and they clank heads when coming together. Song grins with delight as an elbow from Sandhagen tears open a cut on the corner of his eye, and blood leaks down a little but does not seem to bother him. Sandhagen pushes in for a takedown, and crimson liquid starts flowing into the eye. Sandhagen rails his man with an elbow before breaking from the clinch, and Song’s eye is a busted mess. Sandhagen backs away and unloads with a liver kick, and he keeps jabbing until Song plods forward with a three-punch salvo. Song throws with fire, and Sandhagen just barely rolls through it and lands a pair of low kicks. “Sandman” dips and ducks the power punches that come at him, and he even lets a flying knee soar past him. Sandhagen plants a front kick on the chin and chains a leg kick into it, and Song smiles but does not connect with anything in response. Three punches from Song come up short, with his depth perception possibly struggling due to the plasma coating his eye. A clinch leads to an explosion from Song, who loads up on several big punches one after the other. Sandhagen responds with his own combination, and the knee pops Song in the chops right before the horn blares. The cut on Song’s eye could be a fight-ender, so it remains to be seen how the doctor evaluates it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 3
The doctor tells Dean to keep an eye on the cut, but he is letting the fight continue into the third round. Song walks right into a body kick, and he replies in kind but it has less impact. Sandhagen kicks the lead leg and escapes out the side when Song sits down on a counter, and both men block high kicks. Sandhagen remains active with low kicks, and he ducks a massive haymaker of a right hand and shoots in on a takedown. Song stuffs it and clubs him with a left hand, and Sandhagen grits his teeth and retreats. Their heads clash together as Sandhagen attempts another takedown, and Song stops it in its tracks and makes Sandhagen pay with a trio of powerful punches. Sandhagen answers him with a step-in knee, and Song eats it like Szechuan beef and keeps on forging ahead. Song swings and misses with a salvo, and Sandhagen slides back and jabs a few times to cause the cut to start bleeding again. Song punches his way forward, but Sandhagen is the one who tags him with a few jabs. Sandhagen takes for a takedown to get a reaction, and then actually attempts one. Song gets shoved back to the wall, and scarlet fluid covers his face and turns it a brilliant shade. Song stings Sandhagen with a left hand, only for Sandhagen to nail him with an elbow. A takedown try from “Sandman” is staved off, and he brushes off a striking array that zooms at him. Sandhagen has a kick pound into the guard, and he snaps out a jab that causes Song to spit blood out. Sandhagen skirts on the outer edge of the cage as Song tries to cut him off, and it allows him to stay at his preferred range. Song bowls forward throwing hammers, and Sandhagen slips them and pokes him back with a few jabs. Song is prepared for a takedown entry from his opponent, but he absorbs a few jabs that chain into a left to the body. Sandhagen gets a flying knee through the guard, and blood is positively streaming down Song’s face. Once again, the doctor will have to make a tough call.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 4
Dean is informed by the doctor that should any more damage come around the eye, he needs to call the fight to protect Song from permanent damage. Song is thankful to keep going, and he loads up on several power strikes including a body kick and several strikes to the body. A response of a body kick from Sandhagen and two punches open it again, and Dean is watching it very closely. Sandhagen goes up high with a kick, and Song blocks and counters. Sandhagen marches forward with jabs from both arms as he switches stances, and he kicks the body. Song catches it and powers through it to trip “Sandman” up and take him to the mat. Plasma flows freely on Sandhagen’s face and into his mouth, and he explodes back to his feet and gets pushed back to the wire. Sandhagen spins him around and trips Song out. Song climbs back up, but he takes a head kick when he does. Song wings haymakers and catches Sandhagen, but Sandhagen is quick and accurate with jabs and straight punches. Sandhagen targets the wrecked eye with impunity, and Song gives chase and barely registers that his eyebrow is nearly hanging off his head. Sandhagen mixes up jabs and kicks, and Song’s power punches are telegraphed and largely hitting air. Song smiles when he takes punishment, and even though he dodges a few punches, Sandhagen goes the body and head. A single from Sandhagen succeeds in getting Song down to his seat, and he grinds his elbow on the cut. Blood streams from Song’s face, covering the mat with a dark red pool beneath his head. Sandhagen postures up with a few elbows, and Song practically laughs at him, giving his best “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression while on his back, drenched in hemoglobin. The horn sounds, and he cannot see out of his eye when he stands up.
The cutman tries to tend to the gash, but it is beginning to swell and it appears to be the type that even the most “just bleed” physician could not allow to continue. The doctor, who cleared Song to fight in Rounds 3 and 4, informs Dean that he does not like what he is seeing from the massacred eye of the 24-year-old. Dean does not hesitate, and he waves the fight off after hearing this, to save the youngster from long-lasting harm that could develop further with five more minutes of brutality.
This is a gruesome but fitting end to a violent and sanguine evening, one that comes with a week off to process all that transpired over the last few weeks. The UFC will return in October, and when it does, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Yadong Song R4 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo leans Sandhagen primarily because of his five-round experience and ability to recover from bad rounds. He notes that Sandhagen is a fluid striker with good combinations and BJJ, but he lacks takedown volume. Angelo is not confident and thinks the odds are wide. He considers a plus points bet on Yadong.

Considers plus points bet on Yadong.
"i am going to lean corey here in the pick but literally because this is a 25 minute fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen to win by decision. He argues that Sandhagen is the better striker overall with higher volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute) and has fought much tougher competition (Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling). Brady notes that Sandhagen has never been knocked out and has excellent striking defense. He believes Song Yadong's power is a threat, but Sandhagen's durability and output should carry him to a decision win. Brady also mentions that this is Song's first five-round fight, which could be a factor. He is surprised by the public support for Song as a dog.

decision
"give me san hagen to win give me san hagen to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody agrees Sandhagen is the more refined fighter with better cardio and versatility. He highlights Sandhagen's wrestling improvements since the Sterling loss and his ability to maintain high output. Cody thinks Song's lack of five-round experience and tendency to slow down will be exploited. He calls Sandhagen a good top ticket play but not the most confident pick on the card.

"i gotta agree with all your points i think he's got more experience i think he's got more versatility when you watch the fights themselves he's got a lot of output"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong at plus 175 odds, placing one unit on him. He believes Song has enough output to make his harder shots count against Sandhagen's volume, and that the fight could be close enough for Song's power strikes to sway judges. He notes Sandhagen's year off and potential ring rust, and thinks the odds should be closer. He respects Sandhagen but sees value in the underdog.

Bet one unit on Song Yadong moneyline at +175
"I took the odds on sonia dong here at plus 175. I mean i thought they were good odds on on a kid like this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Jacob picks Yadong, comparing his style to Petr Yan's and noting that Yadong is faster and more powerful now at 24. He believes Yadong's speed and power will close the distance and land big shots, potentially knocking down Sandhagen. Jacob thinks Yadong is peaking at the right time and can win by decision or finish.

Bet under 4.5 rounds at plus money.
"i think this is song and dawn's time to shine man i think that he is looking and and getting peaking at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen is the master of distance and will make Song whiff, tiring him out. Sandhagen's footwork and in-and-out movement will keep him out of the pocket where Song's power is most dangerous. Sandhagen's cardio is superior for five rounds, and he has been training BJJ with Ryan Hall to add submission threats. Song's best path is leg kicks or an early knockout, but Sandhagen's style is a tough puzzle for Song at this stage. I expect Sandhagen to take over as the fight goes on and win a decision.

Round 4 or 5 decision for Sandhagen at -115 on FanDuel is a good target
"the pick is sandhagen I think we'll see him do solidwork from the outside really start to open up the layer that this fight goes I think he takes home a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul thinks Sandhagen's five-round experience against TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan is a huge advantage. He notes Sandhagen's durability and high output will be key, as Song Yadong is a counter puncher who will struggle with Sandhagen's volume. Paul believes Sandhagen will outwork Song over five rounds, though he acknowledges Song's power and youth make it not a lock. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds at plus money.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"i think sonia dong is a excellent talent that we're gonna see so much more from in the moving forward in the in his ufc run but i do think minus 200 on so on san hagen is is more …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen by decision. He acknowledges Song Yadong is an underrated prospect but notes Yadong has struggled against rangy, mobile strikers who switch stances, like Kyler Phillips and Casey Kenny. He believes Sandhagen is too good, too rangy, and too smart, and will take over as the fight goes on. He expects Sandhagen to lose the first round but win the last three or four rounds, with scorecards like 48-47 or 49-46.

"i'm gonna go with sand hagen decision win based on the last three rounds"
LOSS vs Petr Yan
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 1 149 of 270 55% 158 of 280 0 of 2 0% 1 1 1:09
Cory Sandhagen 0 169 of 445 37% 172 of 449 1 of 6 16% 0 1 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 37 of 85 43% 39 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Petr Yan 0 38 of 65 58% 40 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cory Sandhagen 0 45 of 113 39% 45 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Petr Yan 1 36 of 57 63% 41 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Cory Sandhagen 0 37 of 86 43% 37 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
4 Petr Yan 0 36 of 67 53% 38 of 69 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:24
Cory Sandhagen 0 25 of 83 30% 26 of 84 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:03
5 Petr Yan 0 20 of 44 45% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 25 of 78 32% 25 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 149 of 270 55% 100 of 217 27 of 29 22 of 24 135 of 252 7 of 9 7 of 9
Cory Sandhagen 169 of 445 37% 118 of 389 28 of 32 23 of 24 168 of 443 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 19 of 37 51% 4 of 21 4 of 4 11 of 12 17 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 37 of 85 43% 21 of 68 6 of 6 10 of 11 36 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 38 of 65 58% 23 of 50 8 of 8 7 of 7 36 of 63 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 45 of 113 39% 30 of 95 9 of 12 6 of 6 45 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 36 of 57 63% 29 of 49 5 of 6 2 of 2 28 of 46 1 of 2 7 of 9
Cory Sandhagen 37 of 86 43% 29 of 78 4 of 4 4 of 4 37 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Petr Yan 36 of 67 53% 28 of 59 8 of 8 0 of 0 34 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 25 of 83 30% 20 of 77 4 of 5 1 of 1 25 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Petr Yan 20 of 44 45% 16 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 25 of 78 32% 18 of 71 5 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win a competitive decision. He notes both are great strikers, but Yan has the edge in boxing and can mix in takedowns. Sandhagen's takedown defense is a weakness (65% on paper, but was lower before the Dillashaw fight). Yan's wrestling and control time should be the difference. He expects a close fight but Yan edges it out.

"I'm going to say yan slightly edges it out uh it's close fight another close fight but a really good one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody is high on Petr Yan, calling him a 'terminator' with cardio, striking, and underrated wrestling. He notes Yan has scored takedowns in his last six fights, including against Aljamain Sterling and Jose Aldo. He thinks Yan's wrestling will be the difference against Sandhagen, who can be taken down. He suggests betting Yan live for a better price but is confident Yan wins.

"peter young's one of those trustworthy guys that if he loses okay it would take a herculean effort"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel picks Petr Yan to defend his title, calling him a top-five pound-for-pound fighter. He highlights Yan's well-roundedness, cardio, and ability to lull opponents into a false sense of security before dropping them. Daniel notes Yan's takedown success against Jose Aldo and Aljamain Sterling, and believes Sandhagen's clinch issues and tendency to give up his back will be exploited. He predicts a fourth-round TKO.

predicts fourth round TKO
"i'm going petery in by fourth round tko"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen's volume and output from distance will be Yan's kryptonite. Yan prefers to strike but Sandhagen throws 16.5 strikes per minute from outside and has the cardio to maintain it. Yan's takedowns are a threat, but he doesn't usually grapple heavily. Sandhagen wins a volume-based decision.

Sandhagen by decision.
"My pick is corey sandhagen i am picking against peyon once again and i did pick algo last time as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that playing Yan live is risky because Yan might get an early takedown and the line will move to -400. He thinks Sandhagen's only chance is if it's a pure striking match, but Yan's wrestling will be the difference. He sees Yan as the clear side.

"i think peter young is the side here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan to win by TKO in the later rounds. He highlights Yan's grappling, especially when taking the back, and notes that Sandhagen gives up his back frequently. He thinks Yan will catch kicks, sweep, and take Sandhagen down. He questions Sandhagen's KO power, noting his recent finishes were against chinny opponents. He predicts Yan will be patient, chop at the legs, and eventually finish Sandhagen in the fourth or fifth round.

fourth or fifth round tko
"i'm gonna go over pyota yan here and i think i'll go with pyote yam by fourth round fifth round tko"
Raphael Assunção - Fight History
LOSS vs Davey Grant
Technical Submission (inverted triangle choke) R3 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Davey Grant 0 42 of 58 72% 67 of 85 5 of 12 41% 0 0 4:17
Raphael Assunção 1 65 of 138 47% 80 of 154 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Davey Grant 0 13 of 19 68% 23 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:46
Raphael Assunção 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Davey Grant 0 16 of 20 80% 27 of 31 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:38
Raphael Assunção 0 20 of 44 45% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Davey Grant 0 13 of 19 68% 17 of 23 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:53
Raphael Assunção 1 25 of 55 45% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Davey Grant 42 of 58 72% 16 of 29 8 of 8 18 of 21 38 of 53 3 of 4 1 of 1
Raphael Assunção 65 of 138 47% 28 of 91 18 of 28 19 of 19 59 of 132 4 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Davey Grant 13 of 19 68% 4 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 9 12 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Raphael Assunção 20 of 39 51% 5 of 21 7 of 10 8 of 8 20 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Davey Grant 16 of 20 80% 4 of 8 4 of 4 8 of 8 14 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 20 of 44 45% 6 of 25 4 of 9 10 of 10 18 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Davey Grant 13 of 19 68% 8 of 13 2 of 2 3 of 4 12 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 25 of 55 45% 17 of 45 7 of 9 1 of 1 21 of 51 2 of 2 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raphael Assuncao vs. Davey Grant
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Grant (-140), Assuncao (+120)

Round 1
One of the more underrated bantamweight greats might be entering the final fight of his storied career, as longtime Brazilian contender Assuncao (28-9, 12-6 UFC) is a few months away from his 41st birthday. He battles .500 UFC fighter Grant (14-6, 5-5 UFC), who posts an 86% finish rate and generally lives up to his “Dangerous” nickname. The match will be officiated by nonsense-allergic referee Keith Peterson, and the two fighters opt to clap hands. Assuncao moves to the center of the cage briefly, and they clash legs early. As Assuncao pushes back, Grant does the same, and fingers rake eyes. Grant offers an apology, and they resume nailing one another on the legs. Assuncao sits down on a booming right hand, wrapping his arm just around the head and not connecting with it. Grant boots his foe in the body, and Assuncao catches it and scores a right hand to put Grant on his back. Assuncao whips an elbow down, and Grant threatens with a triangle choke that the Brazilian sees coming from a mile away. Grant scoots to the wall on his backside, and Assuncao follows him from behind and slides his left arm around the chest in hopes of setting up a rear-naked choke. Assuncao releases the arm so that he can punch Grant in the side of the head repeatedly, all while Grant tries and fails to scramble away. Grant stands back up despite Assuncao’s arm around his neck, and he spins around and shoves his man back to get space. Grant, with distance to strike, does just that with a front kick. Grant goes to the body and tries to swing a left hand over the top, but Assuncao intercepts him with a push kick. Grant scores a right hand after regaining his balance, and he switches stances right into a right hook in response. Assuncao lets go with a few punches on the inside, and he ducks back and blocks a head kick. Grant darts forward with a few punches, sneaking them in and evading the counters. Assuncao measures a right hand, and he signals to Peterson that the two clashed heads. Grant spins with a wheel kick that just misses, and Assuncao ducks a few leaping punches to clinch up and push Grant to the wire. The Brazilian lands a few knees to the thigh before breaking off with a right hand. Grant winds up with a right hook, landing it a second before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 2
The respect is high to start off the second round, as the two gladly high-five to get going again. They trade body kicks, and Assuncao leans back to dodge a spinning wheel kick. Assuncao checks a low kick, and he tries to engage but gets popped with an overhand right. Assuncao chips at the calf of his opponent, while checking those that come back to his lead wheel. Assuncao grabs hold of a single, ducking a punch from his opponent, and he is stood up before securing it. Assuncao does land a right hand on the break, and they reset. The two land lefts at the same time, and Grant goes high with a kick that whizzes past his foe’s face. Grant throws a naked leg kick, and Assuncao counters with an emphatic right hand that makes Grant turn about. Grant steps in to release a spinning back elbow, and Assuncao blocks the worst of it and fires off a low kick. Grant kicks high and low, and the Brazilian swats them away without much concern. Assuncao looses a head kick, and he backs off as Grant walks him down and wings right hooks. Grant lunges forward, and his only strike that lands is a low kick. Grant gets a little too reckless, getting countered on the way in, and he finds himself getting grabbed by the veteran. Grant is warned for grabbing the fence to prevent the takedown, and Assuncao still drags him to his knees despite the foul. Grant fights his way back to his feet, but Assuncao has his arm around Grant’s waist with his legs intertwined for a trip. Grant looks to counter Assuncao with a trip, only to get thrown down once more. Assuncao gets a hook in as he takes the back, and Grant defends himself from anything else until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 3
The last round opens with a glove touch, and then the two throw hands. Both fighters connect with clean overhand rights, and they back off to measure one another. Assuncao beats the Brit to the punch with another right over the top, and Grant tries and fails to reach him back. As Grant advances, Assuncao kicks at his lead leg, which changes as Grant switches stances a few times. Assuncao hops away from a low kick, and he gets caught with a right hand coming in. Grant shucks him aside and strings a few punches together, ending it with a head kick that slides over the top. “Dangerous Davey” suddenly unleashes a torrent of punishment, blasting Assuncao with punches until he knocks Assuncao off-balance. Assuncao wobbles back to the fence, and he shoots for a desperation takedown to keep himself afloat. Grant defends the first try, but Assuncao redoubles his effort and pulls Grant’s ankle out to strip away his footing and put the Brit on his back. Assuncao holds on from an unorthodox half guard, but this posture allows Grant to explode back up. Grant fires off an uppercut that snaps Assuncao’s head back like a Pez dispenser, and he still has the Brazilian hurt. Grant tosses aside takedown entries from the veteran so that he can lay into him with punches, and he hurts Assuncao again in an exchange. Assuncao dives after a takedown, and Grant grabs the fence again to stop it. This time, Peterson has had enough of this nonsense, and he pauses the fight and deducts a point from Grant. Assuncao also loses his position from this, and Grant is thrilled so that he can tee off on the Brazilian some more. Assuncao struggles to stay on his feet from an onslaught of strikes, and Grant spins with a back fist that drills into the side of Assuncao’s head. Assuncao tries desperately to get the fight down, and he falls on top of Grant as the British fighter still tries to scramble.
“Dangerous Davey” wraps his legs around Assuncao’s neck to set up an inverted triangle choke, and the unexpected move is secured in a hurry. Assuncao is nonresponsive from on top after the choke gets tight, and he goes out without Peterson recognizing it immediately. Peterson reaches in to check on the Brazilian, who is completely unconscious, and he determines that Assuncao is out and stops the fight.
As soon as the fight is stopped, Assuncao’s coach, Eric Nicksick, is outraged from Peterson’s point deduction that also resulted in Assuncao losing his position, and it is explained that Grant had sat up and gained a superior position – and cannot be rewarded for gaining that position due to a foul. After Assuncao comes to, he removes his gloves and places them in the center of the cage to signal his retirement, while saying in his quick farewell interview that, “I think my time has come.”

The Official Result
Davey Grant def. Raphael Assuncao R3 4:43 via Technical Submission (Inverted Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Angelo picks Davey Grant as the better striker with takedown defense that should hold up against the aging Assunção. He acknowledges Assunção's past success but believes Grant's power and composure will prevail. He notes the line at -160 is likely to move and considers it a safe pick.

line movement comment: expects line to close at -300
"I'm still going the Davey Grant side because I do think he's going to be the better Striker and his takedown defense should hold up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Big Brady picks Davey Grant, noting Grant has never looked this good and is in his prime at 37. He expects Grant to march forward with wild looping shots and put Assunção away, as Assunção has been knocked out recently by Garbrandt and Simon. Brady predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Assunção could win via wrestling if Grant struggles on the mat.

win by KO in round 2
"I think Davey Grant is going to March this guy down Wing big looping shots wild shots and I think he puts a sunset out here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Cody picks Grant, citing Grant's toughness and ability to push the pace. He notes Assunção's age and recent surgery, but acknowledges Assunção could win a close decision. He calls it a close fight.

"I think I will go with Davey Grant don't feel great about it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Connor picks Assunção despite concerns about his age and recent performances. He believes Assunção's counter-striking, jab, and wrestling will be key against Grant's wild brawling style. He notes that Grant makes many mistakes and Assunção can take him down and control him, though there's always a risk of Grant landing a lucky shot.

Grant is favorite at -130 to -150; Assunção underdog at +110 to +120. Connor notes the line has moved toward Grant.
"I think I have to pick a Sun Tso too. That's it. I just think it's, I'm worried that he'll get knocked out because Grant's got a weird stuff is going to happen to him more and more."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Davey Grant

I think Grant's power will be too much for Assunção, who has shown durability issues at 40. Assunção is the better technical striker, but Grant throws heavy shots and can end the fight at any moment. Assunção's recent losses have come by knockout, and Grant has the power to exploit that. I expect a knockout within the first 12 minutes.

Grant by KO
"I think that one of those big shots from David Grant are going to get through within the first 12 minutes of this fight and I think that will likely be the end of the night"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Paul picks Grant but is not confident, noting Assunção's low volume and close fights. He thinks Grant's volume and takedown defense could be key, but calls it a dicey fight and says he won't bet it.

"I'll take David Grant on price because they got 62 and a half which is super low for a grand fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Davey Grant

The MMA Guru picks Davey Grant, citing his toughness and finishing ability. He believes Grant can finish Assunção, while Assunção is unlikely to finish Grant. He notes Grant's win over Jonathan Martinez and his competitive fight with Adrian Yanez (which he thought Grant won). He predicts a KO in the second round.

by KO, second round
"I'm gonna go with Davey Grant too dangerous I think he finds a finish by KO second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Zane picks Assunção but is hesitant due to his age and recent decline. He notes that Assunção's counter-striking and wrestling should neutralize Grant's wild pressure, but Grant's power and unpredictability make it a risky pick. He mentions that Assunção has seen everything and should be able to handle Grant's style.

"I'm with you. I mean, I would expect these odds to be pretty close. Again, Sun Tso's old and we're both understandably nervous about his chances here."
WIN vs Victor Henry
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raphael Assunção 0 60 of 91 65% 78 of 110 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:29
Victor Henry 0 55 of 126 43% 61 of 134 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raphael Assunção 0 23 of 32 71% 23 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
Victor Henry 0 22 of 48 45% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raphael Assunção 0 17 of 29 58% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:16
Victor Henry 0 15 of 27 55% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Raphael Assunção 0 20 of 30 66% 20 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:43
Victor Henry 0 18 of 51 35% 19 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raphael Assunção 60 of 91 65% 40 of 65 8 of 12 12 of 14 42 of 70 15 of 16 3 of 5
Victor Henry 55 of 126 43% 23 of 85 22 of 26 10 of 15 51 of 120 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raphael Assunção 23 of 32 71% 13 of 21 4 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
Victor Henry 22 of 48 45% 10 of 32 11 of 14 1 of 2 20 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Raphael Assunção 17 of 29 58% 11 of 20 2 of 4 4 of 5 9 of 18 5 of 6 3 of 5
Victor Henry 15 of 27 55% 4 of 13 5 of 5 6 of 9 14 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Raphael Assunção 20 of 30 66% 16 of 24 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
Victor Henry 18 of 51 35% 9 of 40 6 of 7 3 of 4 17 of 48 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raphael Assuncao vs. Victor Henry
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Henry (-345), Assuncao (+285)

Round 1
At the ripe age of 40, some believe the book on longtime bantamweight contender Assuncao (27-9, 11-6 UFC) is coming towards its conclusion soon. In hopes of snapping a career-long rough patch of four losses in a row, Assuncao will try to show there are still more pages to be written as he takes on the well-traveled Henry (22-5, 1-0 UFC). The 135ers clap hands ahead of their scheduled melee, and referee Kerry Hatley is prepped and ready for what is about to go down. Henry strikes first with a kick to the thigh, and Assuncao responds with the exact same strike. Henry stalks down the UFC vet and lines up a right hand, but he misses the mark. Assuncao is tentative and switching stances, with his own attack largely muted as he seems coiled to wait for a response. Henry rips the body with a kick, and Assuncao catches it, leading to them both trading punches while Henry’s right leg is in the air. Henry pulls his leg out and resets, and he advances while tossing out a front kick. Assuncao sits down on a heavy left hand that graces the chin, and Henry takes note and feints and fakes multiple times. Henry ducks this telegraphed punch and stings his man with a left, and his body kick lands again solidly. Assuncao pushes a front kick up the middle, and he swings a left hook when Henry bears down on him. Henry gets his leg grabbed again, and Assuncao once more cannot set him down, but Assuncao releases it and strings together a solid one-two. Henry blinks it out and continues his constant forward pressure, and they end up clinching him until he can shake off the grip. Assuncao throws with bad intentions, and “La Mangosta” dodges the worst of them and releases a right hand that pops Assuncao in the chops. The Brazilian evades the second such hook, and he snatches Henry and turns him to the wall. Henry shoves him away and gains some space, and he marches on while Assuncao backs himself to the cage on the other side. They trade heavy punches, and a body kick from Henry bounces off the cup. Assuncao shakes his cup and they do not pause, so Henry boots Assuncao upside the head. Assuncao shrugs it off so that he can throw heavy hands, and he fires off alternating punches while Henry is backed up on the fencing. Henry slides out of the way and pushes the action, mixing in body kicks, low kicks and punches. As Henry gets fancy with a crescent kick, Assuncao snipes him with a right hand. Henry wades forward to engage, but the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 2
The bantamweights take the center of the cage and begin trading low kicks, and as if they both got the same memo, they switch to front kicks. Henry spins with a back kick, and Assuncao does the same, while neither lands flush. Henry pressures his man while spamming low kicks, softening the Brazilian up and dodging the right hook that wings by him. Assuncao connects with that heavy blow when he tries again, and Henry shakes his head and spins with a wheel kick. Assuncao capitalizes on this and jumps on top to take top position. Henry defends with an armbar setup off his back, but the veteran savvy of Assuncao pays off and allows him to move through it and keep striking. After a handful of powerful fists land on the dome, Henry explodes and gets back to his feet, only to be met with a head kick. Henry shrugs it off and gets out of the close range so he can initiate the offense. Henry swipes out with a left hand, and some swelling has developed on both cheeks of Assuncao. The bantamweights throw hammers at one another in close range, and Henry tries for a kick only for it to get caught. Henry tries to slug it out, but Assuncao lines up several clean right hands to knock Henry from one side of the cage to the other, all while hopping away. Assuncao uses this awkward situation to hit a takedown, and he finds himself in early submission danger. Assuncao punches his way out of it to open a cut on the left side of Henry’s face, but Henry doggedly pursues an armbar. The longtime contender fights off various submission setups including a shoulder lock and a toe hold, and Henry works his way to his feet right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 3
A touch of gloves commences the final frame, and Henry walks his opponent down and gets slugged in the face with a right hand. Henry tries to make him may, but he gets clubbed with a left hook. Assuncao is connecting with clean, heavy counters, and Henry is taking a beating but still coming forward. Henry has kicks blocked and checked, but he slings a right hand that wobbles Assuncao. Henry strings several punches together, and Assuncao fires back with reckless abandon and far more power. Assuncao scoops up a leg and dumps Henry to the mat, and like the last two rounds, Henry threatens with a submission when landing. Assuncao turns through the possible triangle, but this allows Henry to stand back up. Henry walks Assuncao down and gets punched in the face for his effort, but not before landing a few shots of his own. Henry lashes out with an elbow, and Assuncao backs off and gives him a thumbs-up for the effective blow. Assuncao catches a body kick and drives Henry from wall to wall, but this time, there is no takedown to be had. Henry springs away and walks into a crisp right hand, and Henry shakes it out and eats a follow-up right hand. Henry slides out of the way from a power punch, but they are not one-and-done for the grizzled veteran. Henry absorbs a pair of knees up the middle as they get too close, and he resets and rushes forward with a right hand and a body kick. Assuncao clinches him up, and Henry attempts to dump him down but settles to release him and line up a solid one-two. Assuncao dives down for a double, where he switches to a single and picks Henry’s right leg up but cannot get the leverage to ground him. Henry tries to sneak in short shots on the inside while Assuncao is still hanging on to the leg, and he manages to keep his balance with his back against the wire. Henry sets it down with 10 seconds to spare, and Assuncao cracks him with a left hand. Henry races after him in hopes of one last ditch effort, but the bell rings to conclude the close match before he can reach his aging but very game opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)

The Official Result
Raphael Assuncao def. Victor Henry via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Angelo picks Victor Henry, citing his impressive UFC debut over Honey Barcelos where he landed 222 strikes and defended six takedowns. He notes that Assunção is on a four-fight losing streak and older, but warns that the line (3-to-1) is wide and that Honey Barcelos looked bad in that fight. He thinks Victor wins but cautions that the odds may be too high for a confident bet.

Line is wide; premium members may have bets involving Henry
"I like Victor in this spot with that being said this line is absolutely why it's a very wide line"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Big Brady confidently picks Victor Henry to win by decision. He notes that Assunção is 40, on a four-fight skid, and has very low volume, while Henry throws a ton of strikes (352 in his last fight). He believes Henry's pressure and output will overwhelm Assunção, and that Assunção's only path is wrestling, but Henry's takedown defense looked good against Barcelos. Brady sees a potential late finish but calls it a decision.

"this should be Victor Henry all day and it's not even close"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Cody picks Victor Henry confidently, citing his impressive performance against Ronnie Barcelos where he landed 180 significant strikes. He notes Henry has volume, wrestling, and has fought tough competition in Japan. He thinks Assunção is old, slow, and has declined, and Henry should win by decision or TKO.

under 70.5 significant strikes for Henry on PrizePicks (mentioned by Paul, Cody agrees)
"I'm picking Victor Victor Henry but I got minus 400 it's like how often does he win this fight like eight out of 10 times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Henry is younger and in his prime, while Assunção is 40 and on a four-fight losing streak, with three finishes. Henry's pressure and volume should overwhelm Assunção, who may have declined durability. Henry is not a big power puncher, so a decision is likely. The host recommends parlaying Henry or taking the decision prop at +120.

Victor Henry by decision +120
"I will be in on uh the Victor Henry side here minus 330 sure you could possibly parlay it or even if you just want to go diving into the the the props here via decision is sitting at plus …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Paul is confident in Victor Henry, noting his extensive career in Japan with wins over multiple UFC veterans. He thinks Henry's volume and wrestling will be too much for Assunção, who is 40 years old and has been knocked out in his last two fights. He picks Henry by decision but notes a TKO is possible.

under 70.5 significant strikes for Henry on PrizePicks (he argues no one has landed over 65 on Assunção in years)
"I got Victor Henry all day... he's got the volume he's got the wrestling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Victor Henry

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry as a no-brainer, citing his impressive short-notice win over Hani Barcelos. He notes that Assunção has shown a chin change after KO losses and may be hesitant. He believes Henry's pressure, size, and reach advantage will break Assunção over three rounds, winning by unanimous decision 30-27.

prediction: unanimous decision 30-27
"no brainer Victor Henry in my opinion"
LOSS vs Ricky Simón
KO/TKO R2 2:14 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
LOSS vs Cody Garbrandt
KO (punch) R2 4:59 · UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Jun 06, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Garbrandt 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 19 of 43 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Garbrandt 0 9 of 23 39% 9 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cody Garbrandt 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 11 of 23 47% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Garbrandt 17 of 52 32% 4 of 25 2 of 11 11 of 16 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 19 of 43 44% 7 of 24 2 of 5 10 of 14 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Garbrandt 9 of 23 39% 2 of 11 0 of 4 7 of 8 9 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 8 of 20 40% 1 of 10 0 of 2 7 of 8 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cody Garbrandt 8 of 29 27% 2 of 14 2 of 7 4 of 8 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 11 of 23 47% 6 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 6 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Big Brady picks Raphael Assunção by second-round knockout, citing Garbrandt's poor chin and recent knockout losses. He thinks Assunção has underrated power and will catch Garbrandt. He acknowledges Garbrandt is the better striker but cannot trust his chin. He notes Assunção is the underdog and sees value.

Assunção by second-round knockout; value on Assunção at +125
"I'm gonna pick us out so I think he's going to you know keep this fight very close I think it's when we actually be a very close fight I do actually give the the lean gar Brant and the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Daniel believes Assunção's counter-striking style is a bad matchup for Garbrandt, who tends to get reckless when hurt. He notes Garbrandt's chin is compromised and that Munoz chopped his legs with calf kicks, which may have led to his desperate rush. He sees Assunção winning a close decision or possibly catching Garbrandt with counters, and calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Assunção by decision, leg kicks
"I'm gonna go with ATL zone Raphael assumes how to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Cody Garbrandt has heavy hands and great footwork, and working with Mark Henry should improve his game planning. Raphael Assunção is a counter-striker with leg kicks, but Garbrandt's power and movement can overcome that. Garbrandt's chin has been questioned, but if he fights disciplined, he can land a knockout. The under 2.5 rounds is also a good play.

Under 2.5 rounds (+150); Cody Garbrandt by KO in round 2
"i like cody garbrandt i'm going to take him to win by by second round ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

The MMA Guru picks Raphael Assunção over Cody Garbrandt. He believes Garbrandt has an emotional issue that can't be trained out, leading to him getting KO'd again. He notes that Assunção has been training consistently and will crack Garbrandt with a big shot, finishing him in the first round by KO. He admits he previously picked Garbrandt but is done betting on him.

first round KO
"I'm picking by a son Sal I was gonna pick pedro muñoz to win by first round KO against God rang in his last fight I went with gar Brandt anyway hoping he would change his ways I'm done betting …"
LOSS vs Cory Sandhagen
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 45 of 81 55% 65 of 103 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:10
Raphael Assunção 0 62 of 116 53% 78 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 16 of 34 47% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Raphael Assunção 0 25 of 52 48% 30 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 13 of 19 68% 20 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Raphael Assunção 0 14 of 20 70% 22 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:53
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 16 of 28 57% 28 of 40 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:07
Raphael Assunção 0 23 of 44 52% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 45 of 81 55% 15 of 50 20 of 20 10 of 11 30 of 65 12 of 13 3 of 3
Raphael Assunção 62 of 116 53% 23 of 67 16 of 21 23 of 28 55 of 108 3 of 4 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 16 of 34 47% 3 of 20 9 of 9 4 of 5 11 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 25 of 52 48% 8 of 31 6 of 8 11 of 13 25 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cory Sandhagen 13 of 19 68% 4 of 10 6 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 11 4 of 5 3 of 3
Raphael Assunção 14 of 20 70% 2 of 7 6 of 6 6 of 7 8 of 13 2 of 3 4 of 4
3 Cory Sandhagen 16 of 28 57% 8 of 20 5 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 23 of 44 52% 13 of 29 4 of 7 6 of 8 22 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Marlon Moraes
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Moraes 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Moraes 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Moraes 2 of 12 16% 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 10 of 23 43% 8 of 17 0 of 2 2 of 4 7 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Moraes 2 of 12 16% 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 10 of 23 43% 8 of 17 0 of 2 2 of 4 7 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 5
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Jul 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raphael Assunção 0 54 of 120 45% 93 of 161 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:31
Rob Font 0 20 of 122 16% 20 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raphael Assunção 0 14 of 41 34% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 10 of 61 16% 10 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raphael Assunção 0 15 of 34 44% 34 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:15
Rob Font 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Raphael Assunção 0 25 of 45 55% 45 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:16
Rob Font 0 5 of 36 13% 5 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raphael Assunção 54 of 120 45% 41 of 98 4 of 7 9 of 15 36 of 95 1 of 1 17 of 24
Rob Font 20 of 122 16% 12 of 105 6 of 10 2 of 7 20 of 122 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raphael Assunção 14 of 41 34% 7 of 29 1 of 2 6 of 10 13 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rob Font 10 of 61 16% 5 of 47 3 of 7 2 of 7 10 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Raphael Assunção 15 of 34 44% 13 of 29 1 of 2 1 of 3 7 of 24 0 of 0 8 of 10
Rob Font 5 of 25 20% 3 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Raphael Assunção 25 of 45 55% 21 of 40 2 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 9 of 14
Rob Font 5 of 36 13% 4 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Matthew Lopez
KO (punch) R3 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Nov 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raphael Assunção 1 46 of 154 29% 48 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Matthew Lopez 0 34 of 93 36% 36 of 95 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raphael Assunção 0 18 of 73 24% 19 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Lopez 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Raphael Assunção 0 20 of 55 36% 21 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Lopez 0 11 of 39 28% 13 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
3 Raphael Assunção 1 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Matthew Lopez 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raphael Assunção 46 of 154 29% 24 of 123 6 of 12 16 of 19 45 of 153 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matthew Lopez 34 of 93 36% 16 of 68 12 of 19 6 of 6 34 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raphael Assunção 18 of 73 24% 10 of 61 2 of 5 6 of 7 17 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matthew Lopez 18 of 43 41% 8 of 31 6 of 8 4 of 4 18 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Raphael Assunção 20 of 55 36% 11 of 43 3 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Lopez 11 of 39 28% 6 of 31 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Raphael Assunção 8 of 26 30% 3 of 19 1 of 2 4 of 5 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Lopez 5 of 11 45% 2 of 6 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0