The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Nov 30, 2018 · Welterweight · Completed
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale Next Fight
Age 39
Height 6' 0"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Kamaru Usman
4.16 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.79 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
89.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rafael dos Anjos
3.48 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.23 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.95 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Kamaru Usman - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 41 of 99 41% 137 of 243 4 of 13 30% 0 0 12:57
Joaquin Buckley 0 44 of 148 29% 51 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 11 63% 41 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:25
Joaquin Buckley 0 0 of 4 0% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 21 47% 33 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Joaquin Buckley 0 3 of 17 17% 3 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 0 8 of 21 38% 33 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:35
Joaquin Buckley 0 10 of 35 28% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Kamaru Usman 0 6 of 20 30% 20 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:18
Joaquin Buckley 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:31
Joaquin Buckley 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 41 of 99 41% 33 of 89 8 of 10 0 of 0 22 of 69 2 of 4 17 of 26
Joaquin Buckley 44 of 148 29% 29 of 130 12 of 15 3 of 3 41 of 144 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9
Joaquin Buckley 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 10 of 21 47% 6 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 9
Joaquin Buckley 3 of 17 17% 2 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 8 of 21 38% 6 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 7
Joaquin Buckley 10 of 35 28% 5 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 6 of 20 30% 4 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 1
Joaquin Buckley 11 of 34 32% 6 of 29 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 10 of 26 38% 10 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 20 of 58 34% 16 of 54 4 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-258), Usman (+210)

Round 1
The proverbial torch is lit and in the hand of former champ Usman (20-4, 15-3 UFC), whose only losses in the UFC are to Leon Edwards twice and against Khamzat Chimaev in a middleweight match that may have been a draw. After plenty of time off to get his head right, “The Nigerian Nightmare” hoists the flame and will do his darnedest to stave off the hard-charging kickfighter Buckley (21-6, 11-4 UFC). Something dramatic might happen in the next 25 minutes, and if it does, referee Mike Beltran will be on top of it. The welterweights are not brought to the center of the cage to receive instructions, and instead do it of their own accord, going forehead to forehead. They opt not to bump fists to seal the cage. It’s on with the show. Buckley practically sprints out of his corner to get after it, fishing with jabs to set up a left. They clash heads on the way in, and Buckley hops back uncomfortably. Usman no-sells it and plods forward, looping a single right hand and shooting for a double when Buckley fails on his counter. Buckley hits his seat, and he posts off an arm to try to recover position. Usman drags him away from the fencing so he can establish himself in half guard, and he presses down with his body weight to keep the striker flat. Usman postures up to hack down with an elbow, and after striking, he immediately returns to imposing every pound of his imposing frame. Usman finds a right hand around the guard as he smothers “New Mansa,” and when Buckley sits up, he connects with another solid right. Usman drags him back down the moment Buckley is about to escape, where he makes Buckley pay for his effort with some more ground-and-pound. Usman grinds effectively with powerful punches from above, and he stacks Buckley up to gain a little more distance and increase the potency on his attacks. Usman returns to half guard, shredding Buckley’s right eyebrow open with his elbows. Usman bombards Buckley with elbows and furious punches until time expires. Buckley stands up, blood streaming down his face, and he smiles.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 2
Buckley is just as eager to get going despite around five minutes of that, as he races at Usman letting punches go. Usman keeps his guard up to parry or deflect most flying at his face. Usman kicks the body and stays out of range of the counter left, and he ducks down directly into an uppercut. The 38-year-old’s beard holds up fine, and he measures a left hand and fakes for a takedown that draws an exaggerated reaction from his opponent. Buckley plants a side kick on the midsection that makes Usman take a funny step, and he surges at the former champ to put fists on him. Usman responds with one high and one to the body, and he defends the head kick that soars his direction. Usman uses a one-two to shoot in for a speedy single, and he strips Buckley’s footing out and sets him down at the three-minute mark. Usman climbs his way to establish mount, hopping to the side to control in half guard rather than giving Buckley a chance to get out. Usman keeps at least one arm under Buckley’s leg to keep him grounded, and he pummels “New Mansa” with short but damaging strikes with any free hand or wing. Usman hacks with another elbow to open the cut back up on Buckley’s eyebrow or eyelid, and he frames off to keep pounding on the kickboxer. Usman works Buckley over from above, hopping to half guard on the other side so he can beat down Buckley with right hands and elbows. Usman further works on Buckley, causing more blood to flow until the round ends. As Buckley stands up, Usman falls off of him, but it is not from ill intent and instead a strange position that befell the two.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 3
To change things up, Buckley comes out of his corner with his hands down, positioning himself in a more karate stance. He lands a single side kick, and he charges forward with a flurry of punches but ends up bouncing his head into the former champ’s. Usman shrugs it off and pitches a head kick at him, and he slides to the side and eats a left hand. Buckley connects twice before getting on his bike, not wishing to stand still so he is vulnerable to a takedown entry. Usman level changes to draw a reaction out of him, ducking a right hand over the top. Buckley loads up with left hands, throwing Usman off-balance but not dropping him. Usman’s jab re-opens the wound on Buckley’s face once more, and he jabs a front kick to the body. Buckley stays behind a power jab, and he dodges an Usman hook to catch him with two. Usman drops down, and he takes Buckley off his feet and assumes top position. Usman is quick to rev up his ground-and-pound engine again, where he further bloodies up “New Mansa” with his ultra-effective ground strikes. Buckley surges to a knee, and Usman leans on him and knees him in the posterior a few times to discourage him from standing without protecting his face. Usman tugs him back down, and he looks irritated that he has been taken down and controlled like this. Buckley posts off his arm and is wrenched down immediately, as Usman mounts him and bombards him with punches and nasty elbows. As the elbows continue to connect, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 4
The fighters get right back to it, with a fire lit under Buckley’s belly. He swings a head kick and several punches behind them, but Usman’s head movement and footwork is making a huge difference even at the age of 38. Buckley tries to work behind his jab, switching stances so eh can chain strikes together, and he pops Usman twice as he retreats. Buckley scores an uppercut, stuffs a takedown and eats a right on the way out. Buckley keeps his hands low as he starts talking to the former champ, goading him into reckless exchanges. One such exchange immediately presents itself, and it ends in a bump of heads. Usman does not register as if anything happened at all, and he snipes the kickboxer with a jab. Buckley tells him it was a good strike, and Usman answers with a power double. Buckley sprawls about as deep as someone can against the wall, and he smiles that he might be able to defend this deep effort. The smile turns to a grimace as Usman lifts him up and down to the ground, where he once more establishes himself in smothering yet dangerous top control. Buckley starts booing from off his back, as Usman controls him, with “The Nigerian Nightmare” shifting from one side to the other. Buckley motions to Beltran as if he will be stood up, but Usman is plenty active and has not drawn so much as a single warning for a lack of action. Buckley sits to a knee, and Usman pounds on him with a free right hand and a few elbows. Usman winds up with a power punch, and his slashing elbow concludes the fourth frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 5
As if he wants to channel his inner Leon Edwards, Buckley starts the fifth round off with a mighty head kick. Usman tanks it, unlike his fateful title loss, and he keeps marching forward. Beltran asks for the fighters to close their hands, and they proceed to jab it out. Usman goes down low for a single and then a double, and Buckley manages to break off and defend from the effort. Usman tries to change levels again, and Buckley once more stops it in its tracks. This time, Buckley strings together a few punches on the inside on the break. Usman pierces the guard with a sharp jab and fakes a single, and Buckley ignores it and gives back two power jabs of his own. “The Nigerian Nightmare” tries again for a takedown, and a third effort fails. A fourth does as well, and Buckley lets his hands fly and knocks Usman back a step. Usman whiffs with a left hand, and he dodges a big hook that comes back his way. Buckley wraps a left around the guard as he approaches awkwardly, and the two crash into one another as Buckley anticipates an Usman takedown. Usman bullies him to the wall, but he cannot keep him there. Buckley explodes out of control and starts slugging away, catching Usman with short, compact swings. Buckley releases a big left hand and plants a side kick on Usman’s chest, and scoops an uppercut that buzzes the former champ’s chin. Buckley scores with a jab and an uppercut, stinging Usman and forcing him to backpedal as he appears to be hurt. Buckley rushes at him, looping an uppercut his direction but not landing it. Buckley swings with everything he has, smacking Usman and getting tagged on the way back. The two hear the final horn blare, and immediately disengage the offense and congratulate one another for five fairly entertaining rounds likely deserving of “Fight of the Night” given the lack of competition earlier tonight.
On the post-fight interview, the victorious former champ is nearly overcome with emotion, taking a moment to gather his thoughts as he expresses gratitude towards his opponent. Usman says that he feels great and that people should “shut the front door”—paraphrased to remove profanity—about his bad his knees are. While he does not have a name on his tongue, he does state that he should be one win away from a title shot at worst. No matter who the self-proclaimed “f---ing boogeyman” fights next, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (49-46 Usman)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Usman)

The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Buckley because he is younger, more active, and has speed and power. He notes that Usman is aging, hasn't fought in two years, and is on a losing streak. He believes Buckley will stay a step ahead and that the UFC is using Usman to build the next generation.

Minus 270 seems more than fair
"Buckley has the speed, he has the power, he has the cardio. I think he can stay a step ahead of Camaro the entire time."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley by third-round knockout. He believes Usman is past his prime, citing a two-year layoff, bad knees, and a washed performance in the second Edwards fight. He thinks Buckley is in his prime with power and will catch Usman's chin. He notes that a few years ago this would be a different fight, but now it's Buckley's time.

third round knockout
"I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout. I think he knocks out Kamar Usman."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Connor picks Buckley, emphasizing that Usman's striking is built on posturing and a steady rhythm, and that Buckley's relentless pressure and power will disrupt that. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power striker and that Buckley's wrestling scrambles and durability will be key. Connor also points out that Usman's age and knee issues make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed, though he acknowledges Usman could still catch Buckley with clean shots or force him into bad wrestling exchanges.

Usman opened at +207, now +222; Buckley opened at -279, now -248. Connor suggests the odds may widen.
"I think I have to take Buckley here but I'm I'm interested"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Age and bad knees are catching up to Usman at 38. Buckley is younger and better at this moment. He will stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and find a knockout between three and a half to four rounds.

round 3-4 knockout
"Buckley should be able to stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and I think within three and a half to four rounds, we'll see Buckley find that big shot to put Usman away."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, noting value on Usman but favoring Buckley's movement, output, and physicality. He predicts Buckley will get ahead early and stay ahead, finishing Usman by TKO in the fourth round. He cites Usman's long layoff, knee issues, and inability to physically dominate Buckley as key factors.

Joaquin Buckley by fourth-round TKO
"I'm going with Wim Buckley over Kamaru Usman. ... I'm going to say that Buckley finishes this fight in the third or fourth round. I'm going to say that Buckley finishes this by fourth round TKO against Usman."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Zane picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's youth, power, pace, and relentless pressure will overwhelm the older, worn-down Usman. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power puncher like Buckley, and that Buckley's improved speed changes and physicality make him a bully at welterweight. Zane acknowledges Usman's technical advantages but thinks Buckley's hustle and stamina will carry him through, especially as Usman's knees and age have diminished his ability to maintain his own pace.

Usman opened at +207, now +222; Buckley opened at -279, now -248. Zane expects odds to widen further.
"I just think he's gonna get overwhelmed in the long run yeah and worn down"
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 36 of 66 54% 58 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 38 of 70 54% 107 of 143 4 of 12 33% 1 0 7:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 3 of 3 100% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 16 of 17 94% 61 of 66 2 of 7 28% 1 0 4:35
2 Khamzat Chimaev 0 11 of 18 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:41
3 Khamzat Chimaev 0 22 of 45 48% 41 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 13 of 33 39% 34 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 36 of 66 54% 27 of 52 6 of 10 3 of 4 33 of 63 1 of 1 2 of 2
Kamaru Usman 38 of 70 54% 27 of 53 3 of 9 8 of 8 22 of 53 0 of 0 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kamaru Usman 16 of 17 94% 15 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 16
2 Khamzat Chimaev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 9 of 20 45% 3 of 10 2 of 6 4 of 4 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Khamzat Chimaev 22 of 45 48% 20 of 41 2 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kamaru Usman 13 of 33 39% 9 of 27 0 of 2 4 of 4 12 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-285), Usman (+230)

Round 1
Unexpectedly preserving this fight, former welterweight kingpin Usman (20-3, 15-2 UFC) will be stepping up to 185 pounds for the first time in his career in the highly anticipated co-headliner. With just 12 days to prepare, he will collide with Chimaev (12-0, 6-0 UFC), who has been out of the Octagon for over a year while at middleweight for the first time since 2020. Many questions may be answered about both men when the dust settles, and referee Jason Herzog will take the helm for the second-to-last bout of the day. Chimaev has a wild look in his eye, and even though he offers a clap of hands, Usman is having none of it. The two look for their ranges, and Chimaev races forward and looks to take the former champ down. Usman defends it by dropping to a knee, and he springs back up. Chimaev grabs him from behind and looks for a mat return, while imposing his body weight on Usman. Chimaev presses Usman down and gets both hooks in, and he starts hammering Chimaev with hammerfists. Herzog asks Usman to work, and Usman sits up but still has “Borz” on his back. Chimaev fishes for a choke and mixes in punches, and he grabs the cage a few times to maintain position. Usman stays on his hands and knees, not allowing himself to get flattened out but completely nullified from an offensive perspective. Usman looks to shimmy Chimaev off his back, although this does not work. Chimaev looks for a potential choke and busts Usman in the face with a few punches and an elbow. Usman stands up, and Chimaev completes the body triangle and starts wrapping up a rear-naked choke. Usman fights the hands to defend against the choke, and he slams Chimaev right on his head to stop the submission. Chimaev flattens Usman out momentarily, but Usman sits up and leans himself against the fencing. Chimaev wraps his arms around Usman’s head, but the choke is not there. Chimaev works with strikes from around the sides of the head, and he drags Usman to his seat when Usman looks to recover. “Borz” sits up to land a few strikes, and the dominant round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 2
The second round begins, and both men are tentative to exchange in the early going. No strikes land for the first 45 seconds, when Usman jabs the body and kicks the calf. Chimaev changes stances after the kick, and he flicks out a jab. Usman fakes for a takedown, and Chimaev partially bites but does not sell out to defend an attempt that does not come. Usman puts the ball of his foot on Chimaev’s midsection, and he blocks a high body kick that soars back his way. Usman scores another front kick, and he gets pushed back when Chimaev kicks at his knee. The crowd grows restless at the inactivity from the two middleweights, and Usman goes down a little harder for a faked takedown. Usman lands a straight right hand and pump-fakes for another takedown, and he blocks a head kick. Chimaev gets off a leg kick, and he is jabbed to the body. Usman misses on a big right hand, and he leans back as Chimaev swats at him. Another head kick is guarded from the former champ, who looks for a level change and stings Chimaev with a one-two and follows with a calf kick. Usman reaches out with a left hand, and Chimaev shoots in deep for a double that puts Usman on his back with relative ease. Usman defends by tying up the arms and neck, stopping Chimaev from advancing or doing anything. Chimaev pops his head out in the last seconds, lands one punch, and the horn tweets.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
The last round opens up, and Chimaev dives face-first for a takedown that Usman comfortably stops and scoots away. Usman picks and pokes with jabs and leg kicks, and he reaches out with a right that brushes off the beard. Usman leans down and grabs Chimaev’s leg, but he lets it go to keep Chimaev thinking about the wrestling. Chimaev lands a body kick and gets knocked back with two fists, and this leads to “Borz” racing forward with a takedown. Chimaev stands up, and Usman rifles out several jabs to the head and body. Chimaev gets stung in an exchange, and Usman tags him with more jabs and shoots for his own takedown. Chimaev appears fatigued, with his winging strikes labored, and Usman can reach him when he tries. Chimaev drops down for an ankle, and he successfully scoops Usman up and sets him down courtesy of a single. Chimaev moves into half guard, and he grinds the former champion down. Usman looks to buck and prevent Chimaev from advancing, but time is not on his side. Chimaev does little more than control, but he is heavy and keeps Usman flat until Usman furiously escapes. With 20 seconds to go, Usman is on his feet, and he misses with a one-two. Usman lands a few punches, ducks the counters, and the two let their hands go right to the bitter end. Scorecards may be all over the place, regarding the potential score of the first round and the value of striking against grappling in this round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman (29-28 Usman)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (29-28 Chimaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (30-27 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Kamaru Usman via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing the circumstances: short notice for Usman, moving up in weight, travel, and a three-round fight. He thinks Usman's cardio won't benefit him and Chimaev's wrestling will be too much. He is excited to see Chimaev's takedown defense tested but believes the factors favor Chimaev.

"I do think shemaya wins this fight I just think Usman at 36 up in weight as I mentioned the Trav there's just too many things working against him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first round TKO. He questions Kamaru Usman's motivation and decline, noting his age (36), injuries, and poor performance in the second Leon Edwards fight. Usman is taking the fight on short notice and moving up in weight. Brady believes Chimaev will take Usman down and finish him, as Usman has rarely been on his back and looked bad when he was.

first round TKO
"I like Jamay here I like him to style onar Usman and finish him in the first round by uh could be Tiko or sub pick your poison I'll say first round TKO for hamat chamay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman as a dog, arguing that Chimaev has not proven himself against top competition. He points out that Chimaev struggled with Gilbert Burns, who is a former lightweight, and that Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and striking. Cody believes Usman's takedown defense will neutralize Chimaev's wrestling, and that Usman's jab and experience will carry him to victory. He also notes that Chimaev's lifestyle and lack of loyalty may affect his focus.

"I'm going to take Kamaru Usman first of all no reach Advantage going towards Khamzat Chimaev it's a 76 inch versus 75 in so slight one inch towards uh the Nigerian Nightmare Kamaru"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev to defeat Kamaru Usman, arguing that Chimaev is on the rise while Usman is on the decline after his title reign. He believes Chimaev's athleticism, strength, and power are superior, and that the Burns fight humbled him and made him more mature. He notes Usman's cardio and durability but questions his knees and motivation, suggesting Usman is cashing out. Daniel expects Chimaev to show he is the next generation and win, possibly by finishing Usman early or outworking him.

Chimaev minus 300, Usman plus 260; mentions possibility of early finish or Usman taking over later
"I truly do believe jamayah will rise to the occasion and just show that you know he's got more left in the tank... I'm going to go with the undefeated Hamza Chimay to defeat one of the greatest welterweights of …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)

James did not make a pick for this fight. He discussed the fight post-fact, noting that Chimaev dominated round one with a 10-8 but gassed out, and that Usman won rounds two and three on some scorecards. He expressed that Chimaev is beatable if he doesn't finish early, but did not state a pre-fight pick.

"I didn't really see that much from his striking that looked like he had a broken hand... it was a good performance with Chimaev but yes if you take him out of round one he is beatable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a former champion with high-level cardio, great wrestling, and improving striking. Despite short notice, he has been active and can stop Chimaev's takedowns, push the pace, and use forward pressure. Chimaev has question marks about cardio and activity. Expects Usman to win by decision, possibly with a third-round sprinkle.

Usman by decision, possible third round sprinkle
"I'm going to be the contrarian here I'm going to be the guy that says that Kamar Usman can get back to his winning ways even on short notice against the guy shimay"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Paul picks Chimaev, noting that Chimaev has been preparing for a big Paulo Costa and has had time to put on size for middleweight, while Usman is coming on short notice and hasn't added muscle. He believes Chimaev can use his wrestling and reach advantage, and questions Usman's durability after recent KO losses. Paul thinks Chimaev cruises here.

"I think Hamzat absolutely cruises here he can use the wrestling if he wants to but he's going to have reach advantages and there is the bit of a question of is Kamaru Usman's durability in question at this point …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev by first-round TKO. He argues that Usman is used to a physicality advantage and has bad knees, and that Chimaev will walk him down and land a big power shot. He notes that Colby Covington was rocking Usman and that Chimaev is more dangerous on the feet. He also points out that Usman has no power off his back foot and no slickness, while Chimaev has close reach and will push him back.

Chimaev wins in round 1 by TKO
"I'm going to go with hamach chv by KO in the first round"
LOSS vs Leon Edwards
Decision (majority) (48–46, 48–46, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leon Edwards 0 120 of 161 74% 123 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 87 of 205 42% 113 of 232 4 of 15 26% 0 0 5:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leon Edwards 0 20 of 26 76% 20 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 12 of 42 28% 13 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Leon Edwards 0 23 of 26 88% 23 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 24 of 50 48% 32 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
3 Leon Edwards 0 24 of 32 75% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 17 of 32 53% 22 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:06
4 Leon Edwards 0 25 of 41 60% 26 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 37 37% 15 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:51
5 Leon Edwards 0 28 of 36 77% 29 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 20 of 44 45% 31 of 56 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leon Edwards 120 of 161 74% 34 of 69 36 of 39 50 of 53 111 of 150 9 of 11 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 87 of 205 42% 57 of 163 24 of 34 6 of 8 65 of 177 21 of 27 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leon Edwards 20 of 26 76% 5 of 11 6 of 6 9 of 9 20 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 12 of 42 28% 5 of 32 6 of 8 1 of 2 12 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Leon Edwards 23 of 26 88% 9 of 11 6 of 6 8 of 9 22 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 24 of 50 48% 19 of 42 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 34 11 of 15 1 of 1
3 Leon Edwards 24 of 32 75% 2 of 9 8 of 8 14 of 15 24 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 17 of 32 53% 9 of 21 4 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
4 Leon Edwards 25 of 41 60% 9 of 22 4 of 6 12 of 13 25 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 14 of 37 37% 7 of 28 7 of 8 0 of 1 14 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Leon Edwards 28 of 36 77% 9 of 16 12 of 13 7 of 7 20 of 28 8 of 8 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 20 of 44 45% 17 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 36 7 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Angelo picks Usman because he dominated the vast majority of the previous fight and has not lost since 2013. He thinks the first round was a fluke and Usman will wrestle and control the fight. He is not betting because of the knockout loss but believes Usman wins.

"I think Kamara Usman wins this fight minus 250 seems like a fair price for a guy that hasn't lost since 2013."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Usman but with hesitation, noting he was clearly winning the second fight before the head kick. He lists concerns: Usman's age (35), injuries, travel to London, and the knockout loss. He thinks Edwards' path is a finish, while Usman can win rounds via wrestling and pressure. He predicts a decision win but will not bet this fight due to a bad feeling.

will not bet this fight
"I gotta go Usman by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman based on the belief that Usman was the better fighter in the first two fights and can make corrections after the knockout loss. He compares it to GSP after the Serra loss and Cain after the JDS loss, arguing that great champions bounce back. He notes Edwards is dangerous but thinks Usman will wrestle heavily and win by decision, as he doesn't see a finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is unappealing and prefers Usman by decision prop.

Usman by decision
"I think you got to go with Kamara Usman on the basis of... it seems like Kamara Usman was the better fighter... I just believe that he's one of those great Champions that should be able to make the corrections …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Kamaru Usman

Connor believes Usman's pressure is the key to winning. He notes that Edwards is pathologically pressureable and retreats in straight lines, putting himself against the cage. While Usman has become less aggressive under Whitman, Connor thinks he can revert to pressuring Edwards, who has never shown the ability to hold the center of the cage consistently. Connor also points out that Edwards' evasive footwork is poor and his clinch game is neutralized by Usman's strength. He concludes that if Usman commits to pressure, Edwards has no escape.

Usman opened at -350, currently -246; Edwards opened +285, currently +199
"If Usman comes in and just commits to pressuring, I don't see how Edwards escapes that fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Jacob is extremely confident in Edwards, having placed a $1,000 bet on him at +205. He believes Edwards was hampered by altitude in the first fight and still found the knockout. He thinks Usman's confidence is shattered after being knocked out cold and that Edwards will dominate in front of the home crowd.

$1,000 bet at +205
"I have a thousand dollar bet only on Edwards I got him plus 205 and I feel absolutely good about it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and cardio, and he was winning the second fight before getting caught. Edwards is a great striker but has defensive grappling issues. Usman should lean on his wrestling and avoid striking exchanges, grinding out a decision. The line is seen as a gift given Usman's proven ability.

Usman by decision
"I think that's going to be look like a gift of a line once this fight is all said and done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Paul picks Edwards, citing the UK home advantage and potential hometown scoring. He notes Edwards had success in round one of the last fight (takedown, mount, back control) and is four years younger. He thinks this could be the end of Usman's elite run. He likes the plus money value and says he hasn't bet it yet but is a buyer at north of +200.

"I'm gonna go the opposite side I'm gonna pick Leon Edwards... the fights in the UK we've seen really really shabby scoring... at north of plus 200 I'm gonna be a buyer on Leon Rocky Edwards to retain his title"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards to win by decision, despite a history of picking main events wrong. He argues that altitude affected Edwards in the first fight, while Usman trains at elevation. Edwards dominated round one when both were fresh, and Usman's glove grab saved him from a choke. Usman is coming off a brutal KO loss, is older, and had a short camp with a hand injury. Edwards is entering his prime and has confidence. He predicts a 48-47 decision for Edwards.

Edwards wins by decision 48-47
"I'm going with Leon Edwards decision 48-47"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Kamaru Usman

Zane agrees with Connor that Usman should pressure Edwards. He notes that Edwards has never broken 100 significant strikes in a five-round fight and tends to fight down to his competition. Zane highlights that Usman has a history of high output even with wrestling, while Edwards fights in bursts. He thinks the psychological adjustment for Edwards to stand his ground is huge and possibly impossible. Zane also mentions that Usman's wrestling and clinch work will be decisive, as Edwards cannot match him there.

Usman opened at -350, currently -246; Edwards opened +285, currently +199
"I just cannot trust Leon Edwards to hold on to an initiative at all."
LOSS vs Leon Edwards
KO (head kick) R5 4:04 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leon Edwards 0 83 of 135 61% 189 of 247 5 of 12 41% 0 0 10:36
Kamaru Usman 1 55 of 75 73% 64 of 85 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leon Edwards 0 6 of 7 85% 36 of 39 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:21
Kamaru Usman 0 13 of 13 100% 17 of 17 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:01
2 Leon Edwards 0 36 of 65 55% 47 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:42
Kamaru Usman 0 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Leon Edwards 0 10 of 17 58% 38 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:23
Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Leon Edwards 0 22 of 30 73% 54 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:51
Kamaru Usman 0 6 of 10 60% 9 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
5 Leon Edwards 0 9 of 16 56% 14 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:19
Kamaru Usman 1 9 of 14 64% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leon Edwards 83 of 135 61% 61 of 109 17 of 21 5 of 5 46 of 85 15 of 22 22 of 28
Kamaru Usman 55 of 75 73% 20 of 38 22 of 24 13 of 13 42 of 62 7 of 7 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leon Edwards 6 of 7 85% 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kamaru Usman 13 of 13 100% 6 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 6
2 Leon Edwards 36 of 65 55% 25 of 52 8 of 10 3 of 3 27 of 49 3 of 6 6 of 10
Kamaru Usman 20 of 28 71% 7 of 15 9 of 9 4 of 4 17 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Leon Edwards 10 of 17 58% 9 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 4 of 6 3 of 5
Kamaru Usman 7 of 10 70% 3 of 5 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Leon Edwards 22 of 30 73% 18 of 25 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 12 8 of 9 9 of 9
Kamaru Usman 6 of 10 60% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Leon Edwards 9 of 16 56% 4 of 10 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 9 of 14 64% 2 of 7 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Angelo picks Kamaru Usman to defeat Leon Edwards in their rematch. He notes that Usman is on track to become the greatest welterweight of all time, with technical striking and power, as seen in his knockout over Masvidal. Angelo points out that Usman already beat Edwards in 2015 with six takedowns and 11 minutes of control time, and believes Usman can win anywhere. He also mentions that Edwards struggled against Nate Diaz, getting outstruck and needing takedowns to secure the win. Angelo placed a moneyline bet on Usman at -335 and expects the line to move further.

Placed moneyline bet on Kamaru Usman at -335, expects line to move past -500.
"camaro is the very clear pick for me and again premium members get access to our bets early and you will see that i placed a bet on camaro usman moneyline at minus 335"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman. He acknowledges that Leon Edwards is the better striker at range, but Usman has improved his striking with power and a great jab. Usman is a smart fighter who will use his wrestling and pressure, taking Edwards down and grinding on him for 25 minutes. Brady expects Usman to win by decision, though he notes a finish is possible given Usman's recent power. He respects Edwards but believes Usman's game plan and skills will prevail.

Usman by decision
"i do like kamara usman here i do like him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman, emphasizing his stand-up improvement under Trevor Whitman, his wrestling, and the pressure he brings. He questions Edwards' resume and his ability to handle pressure, noting that Edwards has struggled in later rounds against lesser competition. He thinks Usman could knock him out but expects a decision.

"i got to go with uzman i don't know if i'd take it by tko or by decision simple fact is i think he could knock him out but you know logic would dictate he's probably going to grind him …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win the rematch. He emphasizes Usman's superior pace and output, noting that Usman's output is almost double Edwards'. He believes Usman's top control will allow him to bank rounds by holding Edwards down. Levi acknowledges Edwards' paths to victory—slowing the pace and sniping Usman as he closes distance—but ultimately thinks this is a bad time to bet against Usman. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he still favors Usman.

Mentions that the first fight was a decision but notes that no two fights are equal; Usman has been scoring knockdowns in recent fights (2,4,6,7 knockdowns in last 5 fights).
"my pick is Camaro here um I just simply think that right now I don't really see him like slowing down too much"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman's wrestling, cardio, and improving striking should overwhelm Edwards, who was nearly finished by Nate Diaz. The host expects Usman to grapple heavily and possibly finish late. He likes Usman round 4-5 or decision at -155 as a better bet than the moneyline. He includes Usman in a four-leg parlay.

Usman round 4-5 or decision (-155) is the preferred bet. Included in a four-leg parlay with Maverick, Albazi, and under 1.5 in Pedro/Hunsucker.
"I think gusman goes out there and does work i think that will see him go to his grappling more than he has over his last couple fights."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul picks Usman to win, citing his cardio advantage from training in Denver, his pressure and wrestling, and the ability to slow down Edwards. He notes the -400 line is too steep but still sees Usman as the winner. He mentions he might look for underdog value elsewhere but officially picks Usman.

"i think guzman you know puts the pace on them probably a lot of like at least in the early rounds like holding him up the cage foot stomps slowing down the mobility of leon edwards kind of grinding him …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Leon Edwards

The Guru predicts Leon Edwards wins via 49-46 unanimous decision, with two judges scoring it 49-46 and one judge giving it 48-47 to Usman. He envisions Edwards landing effective leg kicks, body kicks, and jabs, cutting Usman with an elbow in round one. He sees Edwards rocking Usman with a head kick in round two and an uppercut-left hook combo in round three. However, he acknowledges Edwards slows down in rounds four and five, with Usman taking him down and landing punches, but believes Edwards clearly won rounds one, two, and three.

Edwards wins by unanimous decision 49-46; one judge gives it 48-47 Usman
"leon edwards via 4946 unanimous decision victory against kamaru usman one judge will give it 48 47 usman two judges will give it i said i guess split decision two judges will give it 49-46 edwards"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 2 123 of 293 41% 158 of 336 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Colby Covington 0 107 of 281 38% 119 of 298 0 of 11 0% 0 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 17 of 43 39% 22 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Colby Covington 0 13 of 47 27% 13 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 2 36 of 71 50% 50 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Colby Covington 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
3 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 58 39% 30 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Colby Covington 0 21 of 56 37% 23 of 59 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:05
4 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 70 32% 24 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Colby Covington 0 33 of 77 42% 38 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:25
5 Kamaru Usman 0 24 of 51 47% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Colby Covington 0 21 of 54 38% 26 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 123 of 293 41% 80 of 241 41 of 50 2 of 2 107 of 274 6 of 7 10 of 12
Colby Covington 107 of 281 38% 79 of 242 23 of 33 5 of 6 101 of 274 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 17 of 43 39% 12 of 34 4 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 2
Colby Covington 13 of 47 27% 8 of 37 3 of 7 2 of 3 13 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 36 of 71 50% 19 of 51 16 of 19 1 of 1 26 of 58 2 of 3 8 of 10
Colby Covington 19 of 47 40% 10 of 37 6 of 7 3 of 3 17 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 23 of 58 39% 18 of 52 5 of 6 0 of 0 22 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Colby Covington 21 of 56 37% 15 of 48 6 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 23 of 70 32% 17 of 64 6 of 6 0 of 0 22 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Colby Covington 33 of 77 42% 28 of 71 5 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 75 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 24 of 51 47% 14 of 40 10 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
Colby Covington 21 of 54 38% 18 of 49 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Angelo picks Kamaru Usman, citing his development of knockout power, improved striking, and proven ability to win wars. He notes that the first fight was competitive and that Usman has since shown he can come back from being dropped. He believes Covington cannot win by stoppage and that Usman's power is a constant threat. He thinks the odds are too wide but still picks Usman.

More more on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"i gotta go with uzmon here oozman's the pick to win the rematch but these odds are far too wide"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Usman's improved striking power, as seen in his knockouts of Burns and Masvidal, while Covington is a decision fighter without power. Brady thinks Covington's volume will be competitive early, but Usman's power and technical striking will take over as the fight goes on. He expects a similar fight to the first, but with Usman finishing Covington late.

fourth round knockout
"i'm going to say a fourth round knockout for kamaru's"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody thinks the line is wrong but agrees Usman should win. He notes Covington's pace and durability but believes Usman's cardio and confidence grow as the fight goes on, pulling away late. He expects a close fight and suggests live betting Covington if the line moves.

"i think the line is wrong but i agree uzman should win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to defend his belt, citing that Usman is slightly better everywhere and that the first fight was a classic war. He notes that Usman has improved his striking and has knockout power, but acknowledges Covington's cardio and heart. Levi is not laying -350 but believes Usman will be slightly ahead and win a close decision. He also mentions that Covington has been training at MMA Masters and may have improved, but still favors Usman.

close decision
"give me uh uzman to just be slightly ahead of covington and defend his belt"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Jacob picks Colby Covington, believing he will make adjustments and use his wrestling and volume to win a razor-thin decision. He thinks Covington needs to trust his cardio, stay in Usman's face, and avoid loading up on power shots. He notes that Covington was winning the first fight on his scorecard. He has a parlay with Covington and Chandler.

Parlay with Michael Chandler
"i'm going kobe i i just i just feel like colby's going to come in he's going to make the adjustments i think there's more wrestling"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The host picks Usman by fourth-round TKO, citing his power and improvements. He thinks the fight will be close but Usman's power is the difference. He considers the over 3.5 rounds and Usman by KO at +180.

Usman by KO (+180), Over 3.5 rounds (-150)
"my official prediction is going to be oozman via ko round four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul believes Usman wins about 70-75% of the time, citing Usman's improvements with Whitman, knockout of Masvidal, and durability. He thinks the line is close to accurate but sees value on Covington at plus money. He bet over 3.5 rounds at -135, expecting a competitive fight that goes late.

over 3.5 rounds (-135)
"i pick him to win i think he does win 70ish percent of the time 75 percent of the time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The Guru picks Kamaru Usman by fourth-round KO, predicting he will target Covington's body early, exploiting a weakness found in their first fight. He notes Usman's activity and mental edge from the previous win, while Covington has been inactive. The Guru expects Covington to win the first round but Usman to take over with body shots and eventually finish with a big right hand and ground strikes.

fourth round ko, body shots
"I'm going with kamaru usman here by a fourth round ko victory."
KO (punch) R2 1:02 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 1 21 of 40 52% 32 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:42
Jorge Masvidal 0 31 of 52 59% 56 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Jorge Masvidal 0 23 of 42 54% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 21 of 40 52% 15 of 32 5 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 0 of 0 9 of 10
Jorge Masvidal 31 of 52 59% 13 of 33 3 of 4 15 of 15 27 of 47 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 14 of 30 46% 8 of 22 5 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 23 of 42 54% 12 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 37 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Kamaru Usman 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 8 of 10 80% 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 6 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Angelo relays Glover Teixeira's pick of Masvidal, noting that with a full camp Masvidal has takedown defense and striking edge. He agrees with the logic, mentioning Glover's ties to American Top Team and his training with Masvidal. Angelo seems to endorse the pick, calling it good insight.

"i think it's a good pick we got some nice insight there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Usman to win a comfortable decision. He expects Usman to implement his game plan of takedowns, cage control, and foot stomps, grinding out Masvidal. He notes Masvidal has power but Usman has never been KO'd and has excellent takedown defense. He considers Usman a safe parlay piece.

Usman by decision; parlay piece
"give me kamara usman for the win... solid parlay piece"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Usman's wrestling and grinding style. He notes Masvidal's age (36) and journeyman status, and that Usman's jab and clinch work will wear him down. He sees a similar outcome to the first fight, with Usman winning by decision. He mentions the -425 price is in line with an 80% win rate and that Usman by decision is a likely prop.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think that the first the way that the first fight plays out is the same thing here he just wears on georgie up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel picks Kamaru Usman to retain his belt, expecting him to take over in the later rounds as Masvidal fades. He acknowledges Masvidal's improved conditioning with a full camp and his one-punch KO power, but believes Usman's work rate and pressure will be too much. He notes the odds are wide and calls it a dog or pass situation from a betting perspective.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna go with uzmana and still"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

I think Usman will repeat his performance from the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using foot stomps, and controlling the pace. Masvidal is durable and hasn't been finished in 12 years, so a decision is likely. Usman's cardio and wrestling are superior. I like Usman by decision at -130, which improves the moneyline odds.

Usman by decision -130
"i'm going kamar oozman by decision we're getting minus 130 on that line right now i think that's a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul believes Usman will replicate the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using his wrestling and jab to control the fight. He notes Masvidal's durability and puncher's chance but sees Usman as the superior technician. He expects a decision win, similar to the first fight, and thinks the -425 price is fair but not a value bet.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think it's usman oozman by decision all over again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The MMA Guru picks Kamaru Usman by decision. He notes that Usman had a full camp for Masvidal this time, unlike the short-notice first fight, and that Usman's striking has improved under Trevor Whitman. He believes Usman's grappling is too good and that Masvidal hasn't made significant improvements. He predicts Usman will win with a possible 10-8 round, though Masvidal may take the first round.

"i'm gonna go with kamaru osman of course"
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
TKO (punches) R3 0:34 · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 2 83 of 136 61% 93 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:05
Gilbert Burns 0 45 of 108 41% 55 of 124 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 31 of 53 58% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 56 39% 32 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 1 39 of 65 60% 40 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 50 42% 21 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Gilbert Burns 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 83 of 136 61% 56 of 105 11 of 15 16 of 16 54 of 100 3 of 4 26 of 32
Gilbert Burns 45 of 108 41% 18 of 75 13 of 14 14 of 19 44 of 104 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 31 of 53 58% 10 of 31 8 of 9 13 of 13 13 of 34 3 of 3 15 of 16
Gilbert Burns 22 of 56 39% 12 of 43 7 of 7 3 of 6 21 of 52 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 39 of 65 60% 33 of 57 3 of 5 3 of 3 39 of 64 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 50 42% 6 of 32 5 of 6 10 of 12 21 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 13 of 18 72% 13 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 16
Gilbert Burns 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
The welterweight championship will go to the winner of the UFC 258 headliner, as “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (17-1, 12-0 UFC) tries to make it 13 wins in 13 appearances against the exceptionally dangerous “Durinho” Burns (19-3, 12-3 UFC). This rare high-stakes tilt between teammates will draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, and surprisingly, there is no glove touch between the two as they share a very intense stare down. Burns rushes in with a home run right hand, and Usman sees it coming and bats it away. Burns loads up on a few leg kicks, and lets go with a heavy body kick. Burns nails Usman with a huge right hand, and Usman drops to a knee. Usman recovers, get stung with an overhand right again, and he is still hurt. Usman fires back, and he clips Burns, but the Brazilian is ready to keep throwing. Burns lets loose a head kick that Usman eats flush, and he falls to his back. Usman does not oblige him by jumping into the submission magician’s guard, and instead stands above and kicks at Burns’ thigh. Burns threatens with upkicks and straight kicks to the knee, and the two are stalled out in this kicking situation. Usman picks up Burns’ leg and scores a series of thudding kicks to the thigh. Usman dives down to land a flush right hand, and Burns’ confident face shifts to one of concern. When Burns springs up, he greets Usman with a knee on the chin. Usman reaches out with a jab, and he lands two more while Burns comes up short with a few of his own. Burns stings the champ with a left hand, and Usman reacts every time he takes one. Usman hacks at the leg with a kick, and Burns gives him one back. Usman drops in a body kick and a low kick, and the two trade these low strikes. Burns gets off a right hand over the top, and Usman takes it flush and lands a few stern jabs. The Brazilian lets fly a head kick, and shoots in for a takedown after his leg lands. Usman pushes him away and blocks a subsequent head kick. Burns connects with a right hand, and a few strikes follow suit in a strong combination from Burns. Usman fires back, and when the horn sounds, the two welterweights smile at one another before bumping fists.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Burns marches out of his corner to throw bombs, and Usman absorbs a few punches and stumbles as he walks back. Usman tries to recover some ground with several jabs, and he steps out of the way of a leg kick. A piston-like jab finds its home on Burns’ jaw, and the Brazilian retaliates with a head kick. Usman keeps sticking out the jab, allowing Burns to kick his lead leg out. Usman keeps focused landing the jab practically at will, and Burns diversifies his striking game with body kicks, leg kicks, long punches and other strikes that reach the target. Usman stays composed with repeated jabs, and Burns hurts him with an overhand right. Usman fires back with a right hand that is not quite as substantial. Burns rushes forward with a triple jab, and he gets jabbed a few times to break up a heavy combination. Usman winds up with a monster right hand, and Burns drops to a knee. “Durinho” is hurt badly, and Usman drills him with a few more punches as Burns falls against the fence. Usman stuffs a takedown to jab up Burns’ face, and he follows the jabs with several overhand rights that do more damage. Burns’ nose is marked up, and he is resorting to throwing haymakers while Usman marches him down and touches him with the jab. Burns swings with a big right hand, and Usman blocks it only to return fire with a leg kick. Burns successfully lands a pair of punches, and a retaliatory jab from Usman drops Burns to the canvas. Usman tells Burns to stand up, and Dean allows him to do so. Burns, light on his feet, kicks the leg as he circles on the outside. Usman keeps landing jabs, and he eats a pair of big punches to roll with them and land his own strikes. Usman slaps a loud leg kick home, and Burns ducks a jab to attempt a takedown. As Usman lands a few more jabs, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 3
Burns takes the center of the cage to begin the round, reaching out with long punches and a leg kick. Usman fires off a straight jab from the southpaw stance, and Burns crashes down to the ground hard. Dean rushes in to nearly stop the fight, and the champ leaps down to deliver some nasty ground-and-pound to try to finish the job. Burns rolls through it as he keeps taking punishment, but Usman does not let up. As Burns falls to his back, he is hurt and in a bad way, and “The Nigerian Nightmare” keeps pouring it on. Punch after devastating punch crashes into Burns’ face, and Dean has seen enough as Burns is no longer intelligently defending himself. Usman confidently strides in front of the camera and asks, “Who is taking what from who?” The champ is now a perfect 13-0 inside the Octagon, tying the active UFC win streak record with current lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov. What a performance for the champion, who overcame perhaps the stiffest adversity of his UFC career to record an incredibly impressive victory. After the official decision, the two friends and training partners share a long embrace, as Burns lets loose all of his emotions inside the cage. With UFC 258 in the books, the UFC will carry on next week with a Fight Night card in a long string of events until the end of March.

The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Gilbert Burns R3 0:34 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision. He believes Usman has more paths to victory, including controlling the fight against the cage and using his wrestling. He notes that Burns' level of competition is lower and that Usman's takedown defense is perfect. He thinks Burns' only path is a submission, but Usman hasn't been submitted in over a decade. He expects a boring fight but a clear win for Usman.

Usman by decision; Usman is a fine parlay piece; Burns by submission is the only path for Burns
"I'm going to take usman here I'm going to say he wins by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision, citing Usman's relentless work rate and output. He notes that Usman lands far more strikes than Burns (e.g., 175 vs Colby, 130 vs RDA) and questions Burns' ability to maintain pace over five rounds. He acknowledges Burns' power and submission threat but believes Usman's pressure and cardio will wear him down. He also mentions the former teammate dynamic and that Burns must have fight-changing moments to win.

Usman by decision; Burns must finish to win; mentions Burns' submission threat but says it's been 8 years since he was submitted
"i just see usman wearing on him down the stretch and winning a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The host believes Usman is the better fighter with superior wrestling, pace, pressure, and strength. He notes that Burns' impressive run includes wins over an aging Tyron Woodley and a past-prime Demian Maia, and that Burns has never faced pressure like Usman's. He expects Usman to drown Burns in the later rounds with his cardio and clinch work, predicting a decision victory.

by decision prop mentioned as potential play
"i just don't see where burns will truly be able to beat him like the durability of kamaru usman is amazing he's never been knocked down in the ufc"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru picks Gilbert Burns as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight that should not have such wide odds. He believes Burns has better stand-up and grappling technique, dangerous knockout power, and the advantage of training with Usman's former teammates at Sanford MMA who know his weaknesses. He also notes Usman's recent broken nose and recovery issues. He predicts Burns will catch Usman in an exchange and win by TKO in the first or second round.

Burns by TKO in first or second round; odds are too wide; Burns is a 3-to-1 underdog
"i'm going with gilbert burns... this is the most dangerous defense of usman's belt... how on earth is gilbert burns that much of an underdog this is a 50 50 bout man"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 94 of 151 62% 263 of 341 5 of 16 31% 0 0 16:38
Jorge Masvidal 0 66 of 125 52% 88 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 18 of 40 45% 25 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Jorge Masvidal 0 24 of 43 55% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 27 of 32 84% 94 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:40
Jorge Masvidal 0 20 of 32 62% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 27 51% 46 of 61 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:14
Jorge Masvidal 0 12 of 19 63% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 31 74% 75 of 90 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:37
Jorge Masvidal 0 6 of 15 40% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Kamaru Usman 0 12 of 21 57% 23 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:31
Jorge Masvidal 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 94 of 151 62% 43 of 96 49 of 53 2 of 2 42 of 86 39 of 49 13 of 16
Jorge Masvidal 66 of 125 52% 23 of 69 29 of 39 14 of 17 38 of 90 27 of 34 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 30 7 of 8 2 of 2
Jorge Masvidal 24 of 43 55% 13 of 28 5 of 9 6 of 6 16 of 32 7 of 10 1 of 1
2 Kamaru Usman 27 of 32 84% 10 of 15 17 of 17 0 of 0 11 of 14 16 of 18 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 20 of 32 62% 5 of 16 11 of 12 4 of 4 10 of 21 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 14 of 27 51% 10 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 14 2 of 5 6 of 8
Jorge Masvidal 12 of 19 63% 2 of 8 6 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 23 of 31 74% 9 of 15 13 of 15 1 of 1 9 of 14 14 of 17 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 6 of 15 40% 2 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 8 4 of 7 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 12 of 21 57% 7 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 1 5 of 6
Jorge Masvidal 4 of 16 25% 1 of 8 3 of 5 0 of 3 2 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman by comfortable decision, citing Usman's wrestling and takedowns as the key. He notes Masvidal has been taken down often and Usman is a smart fighter who won't stand and trade. He thinks the line should be wider and Masvidal's only chance is a knockout off his back, which is unlikely.

"i see usman uh winning a decision here pretty comfortably ... i think it should be a little bit wider than that honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi leans toward Kamaru Usman, citing his full camp, size, wrestling, and cardio. He expects Usman to use a clinch-heavy, grinding game plan to wear down Masvidal. However, he acknowledges Masvidal's momentum and power, and says he wouldn't be surprised by an upset. He picks Usman by decision, but as a fan he roots for Masvidal.

predicts decision win for Usman
"I'll lean with Guzman as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a nightmare matchup for Masvidal with his relentless pace, pressure, cardio, and wrestling. Masvidal's only chance is a Hail Mary strike, but Usman's striking is good enough to close the distance and implement his grappling. The line at -225 is great value; Usman should dominate and win by decision. This is the lock of the night.

lock of the night play, bet at -267
"c'mon lucemon is the better fighter he is gonna win this fight and I've never been so convicted"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The Guru is confident Usman wins, predicting he will maul Masvidal. He notes that Masvidal has a 25% chance of landing something big in the first round but doesn't see it happening. He emphasizes Usman's size, wrestling, and the fact that Masvidal is taking the fight on short notice.

Mentions Masvidal has a 25% chance of winning, says 'mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled'
"mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled that's my prediction"
Rafael dos Anjos - Fight History
LOSS vs Geoff Neal
TKO (knee injury) R1 1:30 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Will leave this fight alone; no bet.
"I think Jeff Neil wins... but I just don't have the nuts to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

"give me Jeff Neil here I think he wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning Rd but I feel like that's also a bad pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

"And that is kind of my core read here against Jeff Neil is that RDA might have a lot of success running his kind of game against Jeff Neil. But if I have to think who is capable of putting …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

"give me Jeff me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

"give me the much bigger much younger hands of Steel Jeff Neil"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

higher than 64.5 significant strikes for Neal (Underdog fantasy pick)
"Jeff Neil gonna be faster on the feet going to put together a better game plan here uh I'll take him in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Neal wins by decision (lean); possible knockout
"ultimately lean with Neil winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

"I will not be getting to RDA"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

TKO second round
"I'll say second round TKO for Geoff Neal potentially in the first though I can see a real nasty finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

"So yeah, take it, Neil. Same. But, uh, it's a good fight. Like it is, it is a fight where if RDA can get Neil down, he might just be able to like, to sub him out, you know, he's …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Geoff Neal

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

"jeff neil hafel dos angeles another real sad days fight um i don't i've never liked rda at welter weight"
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 57 of 102 55% 111 of 163 11 of 19 57% 0 0 7:01
Rafael dos Anjos 1 36 of 78 46% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 34 55% 40 of 61 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:35
Rafael dos Anjos 1 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 18 55% 28 of 36 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 50 56% 43 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 57 of 102 55% 48 of 90 9 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 78 46% 24 of 61 5 of 9 7 of 8 26 of 67 7 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 34 55% 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 3 of 4
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 19 57% 9 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 50 56% 25 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 48 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 13 of 34 38% 6 of 26 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good.
"I'm very confident in gamrat here I think he is worth the price tag and uh we're going to see an age and evolution of the sport here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

win by decision
"I'm going gam Rod here gamr to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

"I think it's RDA is a dogger pass spot for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

"I got gamr here it's just this price is terrible if this price goes down a little bit I mean gamr should be I say should be a safe parlay"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Gamrot by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"gamrat more than worthy at minus 400 here I think he's going to be too strong too fast uh obviously younger uh and the better overall wrestler here which will allow him to get this fight to the ground and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

"I got to go with matus gamron"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Matas gam over rapael Doos"
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 72 of 141 51% 138 of 221 8 of 11 72% 0 0 12:01
Rafael dos Anjos 0 66 of 136 48% 94 of 170 2 of 7 28% 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 16 of 32 50% 20 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:30
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 37 45% 20 of 41 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:20
2 Vicente Luque 0 11 of 26 42% 32 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:23
Rafael dos Anjos 0 10 of 22 45% 14 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Vicente Luque 0 18 of 39 46% 27 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
Rafael dos Anjos 0 11 of 27 40% 12 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
4 Vicente Luque 0 10 of 18 55% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 15 60% 20 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
5 Vicente Luque 0 17 of 26 65% 33 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Rafael dos Anjos 0 19 of 35 54% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 72 of 141 51% 48 of 115 17 of 19 7 of 7 60 of 127 8 of 8 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 66 of 136 48% 42 of 108 19 of 23 5 of 5 38 of 105 26 of 27 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 16 of 32 50% 9 of 24 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 37 45% 8 of 26 6 of 8 3 of 3 9 of 28 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 11 of 26 42% 7 of 22 3 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 10 of 22 45% 4 of 16 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 15 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Vicente Luque 18 of 39 46% 12 of 32 4 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 27 40% 8 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Vicente Luque 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
5 Vicente Luque 17 of 26 65% 14 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 19 of 35 54% 17 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 26 5 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.

Already bet moneyline at -125
"I have a money line on Rafael dos anos at minus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.

third round knockout
"I'll say Vicente Luce uh touches the chin of RDA at some point I'll say third round knockout for Vicente Luce but again a very very sketchy fight overall"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.

"I gotta go with Vincente Luca and the plus money and again I think that kill Cliff FC will have him ready and he'll be working with Gilbert Burns"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.

James mentions Luque's brain surgery as a concern, but no specific prop bets or odds are stated.
"I'm on RDA here... I think that on the feet it's fairly close... RDA has the grappling to lean on when things get tough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.

dos Anjos by decision
"I like those sanyos throughout this fight I think he does good enough work over 25 minutes to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.

"ever so slightly I'm gonna lean to Javier De Los Angeles who I think has the better cardio over the course of five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.

Finish in round three by D'Arce choke
"I'm gonna go with Vicente UK getting a finish maybe drops RDA in round three and dash choke finishes him"
Submission (neck crank) R2 3:20 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 29 48% 61 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 20 of 25 80% 36 of 41 4 of 6 66% 2 0 6:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 19 47% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bryan Barberena 0 16 of 20 80% 30 of 34 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 5 of 10 50% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 4 of 5 80% 6 of 7 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 29 48% 6 of 18 4 of 6 4 of 5 10 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 20 of 25 80% 3 of 8 17 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 19 47% 1 of 9 4 of 5 4 of 5 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bryan Barberena 16 of 20 80% 2 of 6 14 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 12
2 Rafael dos Anjos 5 of 10 50% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.

"RDA is going to be the pick I trust him to Grapple early I trust him to Grapple often and I think he's just gonna grind out another RDA style win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.

RDA wins by decision
"this is RDA all day... horrible horrible terrible magic for barbarian... RDA should win this fight really however he wants"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.

over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"Rafael dosano's top taken material I agree with you and your assessment of it I think he wins this pretty handily"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.

RDA by decision; pass on betting due to price
"I'll pick our DIA to come out here and you know land some takedowns and win this decision but you know because of the price I'm out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.

dos Anjos by decision; parlay piece
"I think dos Anjos you know I'd call him a lock of the night essentially but you would never want to bet a minus 540 straight up like that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.

RDA inside the distance at +175; over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"I feel like this is a should be pretty dominant uh on the side of RDA who is still fighting some of the best fights of his career currently and uh Bam Bam gets hit a ton rarely ever finished …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, noting Barberena struggles when opponents mix up attacks. He believes RDA's body work and leg kicks will be effective, and that Barberena's losses to Jason Witt and Randy Brown show vulnerability. He predicts RDA will win a clear decision.

dos Anjos by decision (30-27)
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos anjos here over Brian barbarina"
LOSS vs Rafael Fiziev
KO (punches) R5 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 54 of 110 49% 90 of 162 2 of 16 12% 0 0 6:13
Rafael dos Anjos 1 64 of 159 40% 92 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 26 34% 22 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 41 34% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 19 of 36 52% 25 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 22 40% 13 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
4 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 41 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:48
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 27 44% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
5 Rafael Fiziev 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 54 of 110 49% 31 of 80 12 of 14 11 of 16 50 of 106 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 64 of 159 40% 32 of 102 27 of 52 5 of 5 62 of 155 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 26 34% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 41 34% 8 of 26 6 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 19 of 36 52% 10 of 26 7 of 7 2 of 3 18 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 44 38% 6 of 27 9 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 22 40% 6 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 38 44% 7 of 26 8 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 23 65% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 27 44% 7 of 17 4 of 9 1 of 1 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Rafael Fiziev 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 9 44% 4 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.

Already has a moneyline bet on Rafael dos Anjos at +170.
"I like rafael dosanos I already got a money line bet on him at plus 170."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.

"i'm gonna pick rda here to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"gotta go with raphael physique so when you're looking at the odds of course it doesn't look you know great like uh you got minus 225 and raphael's eve versus more of a proven commodity in rafael sanyos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.

"I have a bet on Johnson and I understand the value on our day like if you're seeing perceived value on RDA I'd absolutely agree with you which is why I'm not touching that fight but I still do think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"i just think it's uh the price is a little bit too wide and it's continuing to grow so it's like i feel like by the time we get to fight time i'm gonna probably end up with an rda …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.

4-1 decision
"I've got to side with Rafael Fiziev here."
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 1 149 of 286 52% 179 of 318 5 of 15 33% 0 0 13:22
Renato Moicano 0 88 of 172 51% 99 of 185 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 34 64% 30 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:12
Renato Moicano 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 27 of 47 57% 32 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:44
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael dos Anjos 1 40 of 84 47% 52 of 97 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:05
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 42 52% 27 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Renato Moicano 0 12 of 22 54% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 38 of 79 48% 38 of 79 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Renato Moicano 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 149 of 286 52% 119 of 255 23 of 24 7 of 7 84 of 198 7 of 8 58 of 80
Renato Moicano 88 of 172 51% 77 of 158 8 of 11 3 of 3 81 of 164 7 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 34 64% 17 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 17 3 of 3 13 of 14
Renato Moicano 10 of 23 43% 6 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 19 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 27 of 47 57% 19 of 39 7 of 7 1 of 1 17 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
Renato Moicano 15 of 29 51% 12 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 40 of 84 47% 34 of 77 4 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 45 0 of 1 23 of 38
Renato Moicano 15 of 25 60% 14 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 42 52% 17 of 37 4 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 21 0 of 0 15 of 21
Renato Moicano 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 1
5 Rafael dos Anjos 38 of 79 48% 32 of 73 3 of 3 3 of 3 37 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
Renato Moicano 36 of 73 49% 33 of 67 3 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)

Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.

considering over on rounds, plus 5.5 bet on RDA
"my brain is saying i need to go with fiz i have but my heart is saying my gut is saying that rda is going to win i've got to follow the brain"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.

"i think uh i think rafael de san jose is the side"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.

"i actually will take henato mykano to come out here and get this upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.

RDA wins in round 4 (TKO), live betting opportunity on RDA if Moicano has early success
"i'm gonna call a finish for dos anos here i do think that he gets muy kano out of there let's call it round four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.

"i think i am going to go with rda in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.

method: TKO, round: 2
"i'm going to go with raphael fizzyev second round ko early on in the second"
WIN vs Paul Felder
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 98 of 190 51% 134 of 226 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:40
Paul Felder 0 92 of 162 56% 155 of 231 6 of 22 27% 0 0 14:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 45 37% 17 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Paul Felder 0 22 of 34 64% 27 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 29 of 46 63% 35 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 27 of 47 57% 31 of 51 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Paul Felder 0 13 of 18 72% 28 of 35 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:17
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 26 of 55 47% 39 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Paul Felder 0 19 of 41 46% 34 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:54
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 23 60% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 11 of 22 50% 35 of 47 2 of 7 28% 0 0 4:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 98 of 190 51% 64 of 147 20 of 29 14 of 14 76 of 161 21 of 28 1 of 1
Paul Felder 92 of 162 56% 53 of 113 35 of 45 4 of 4 61 of 125 26 of 29 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 45 37% 8 of 33 5 of 8 4 of 4 16 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 22 of 34 64% 13 of 24 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 28 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 29 of 46 63% 23 of 38 3 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 38 7 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 27 of 47 57% 19 of 36 7 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 40 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 11 3 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 13 of 18 72% 7 of 10 5 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 26 of 55 47% 20 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 1 20 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
Paul Felder 19 of 41 46% 7 of 26 11 of 14 1 of 1 10 of 30 8 of 9 1 of 2
5 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 23 60% 8 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.

RDA decision prop mentioned as a potential look; RDA as a parlay piece considered
"i'm gonna take rda to get it done um you know grind out paul felder to a decision i wouldn't be surprised if there's a late finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.

"i'm gonna roll with rafael dos anos as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.

Host mentions dos Anjos via submission as a possibility but leans toward decision; also notes odds around -150 and says he might take a play on dos Anjos if the line sticks.
"i love dosanus here i think he gets ... i'm going to go with the safe side and i'll say dosan used to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.

Finish by exhaustion TKO in round 4 or 5; mentions dos Anjos has similar reach to Felder; notes Felder's terrible weight cuts even on full camp
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos Anjos chewing up his legs, chewing up his body for three rounds, eventually getting himself a finish in the fourth or fifth or running away with an easy decision."
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 14 of 36 38% 23 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 51 17% 54 of 107 6 of 8 75% 0 0 10:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:14
2 Michael Chiesa 0 8 of 24 33% 11 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 7 of 34 20% 12 of 39 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:14
3 Michael Chiesa 0 2 of 3 66% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 5 20% 40 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 14 of 36 38% 2 of 23 4 of 4 8 of 9 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 51 17% 6 of 45 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 12 8% 0 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 8 of 24 33% 0 of 15 2 of 2 6 of 7 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 7 of 34 20% 5 of 29 1 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks RDA to win by decision, acknowledging that Chiesa might give him some trouble early with his grappling and size. He notes that RDA has been taken down 28 times in his last four fights but believes RDA's superior striking and jiu-jitsu will prevail. He mentions that RDA is on the tail end of his career but still the better fighter.

by decision
"I'll take RDA by my decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, emphasizing that the fight is three rounds, which favors Chiesa's ability to hold dos Anjos down for two rounds. He notes Chiesa is a large welterweight with a significant reach advantage, and that dos Anjos may come back in the third but it will be too late. He predicts Chiesa wins the first two rounds and loses the third, winning by decision.

decision
"I'm going with michael Chiesa here especially because it's a free round fight I think he's gonna hold Rafael dos Anjos down for two rounds... michael Chiesa gets the job done"