Raoni Barcelos vs Chris Gutierrez

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Montel Jackson	1	35 of 66	53%	72 of 104	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:23
Raoni Barcelos	0	21 of 38	55%	33 of 51	6 of 18	33%	2	0	7:45

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Montel Jackson	1	14 of 24	58%	46 of 57	0 of 0	---	0	0:23
Raoni Barcelos	0	3 of 4	75%	7 of 8	2 of 4	50%	1	2:49
2	Montel Jackson	0	13 of 19	68%	15 of 21	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
Raoni Barcelos	0	8 of 17	47%	15 of 25	1 of 7	14%	1	2:14
3	Montel Jackson	0	8 of 23	34%	11 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
Raoni Barcelos	0	10 of 17	58%	11 of 18	3 of 7	42%	0	2:42

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Montel Jackson	35 of 66	53%	26 of 57	8 of 8	1 of 1	26 of 53	3 of 5	6 of 8
Raoni Barcelos	21 of 38	55%	7 of 18	8 of 11	6 of 9	13 of 30	7 of 7	1 of 1

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Montel Jackson	14 of 24	58%	10 of 20	4 of 4	0 of 0	7 of 13	1 of 3	6 of 8
Raoni Barcelos	3 of 4	75%	0 of 0	2 of 3	1 of 1	2 of 3	0 of 0	1 of 1
2	Montel Jackson	13 of 19	68%	9 of 15	3 of 3	1 of 1	11 of 17	2 of 2	0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos	8 of 17	47%	2 of 7	3 of 5	3 of 5	6 of 15	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Montel Jackson	8 of 23	34%	7 of 22	1 of 1	0 of 0	8 of 23	0 of 0	0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos	10 of 17	58%	5 of 11	3 of 3	2 of 3	5 of 12	5 of 5	0 of 0

Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-175); Barcelos (+140)

Round 1
The fighters in this next main card offering weigh roughly half of what the two heavyweights in the last bout amassed, and speed kills at 135 pounds. “Quik” Jackson (15-3, 9-3 UFC) saw his mighty six-fight win streak come to a halt last year when Deiveson Figueiredo narrowly outpointed him, so he is in search of getting back in the green. Ageless wonder Barcelos (21-5, 10-4 UFC), who turns 39 next Friday, has won four in a row and could be poised to make a run. Referee Jason Herzog will make sure everything is copacetic.
The longer Jackson takes a few seconds to measure his opponent, and with his long reach, he clips Jackson with a head kick that shakes the elder statesman to his core. Barcelos hits the ground, and Jackson proceeds to hammer him with concussive blows. Barcelos takes them mostly on the chin, surviving and moving enough to stave off Herzog, all while huge strikes collide with his head time and again. Barcelos gets through the initial assault and turns to his knees in pursuit of a takedown, pushing the longer fighter against the wall. When there is no takedown to come from it, he spins out and ducks knowing that Jackson will—and does—swing at him. Jackson’s jab is money, and his follow-up left is destroying Barcelos’ face. Barcelos right eye is swelling and badly damaged halfway through the round.
Ignoring the pain, Barcelos closes in and trips Jackson to the floor. Barcelos climbs on top, and when Jackson tries to set something up off his back, Barcelos powerslams him. Jackson scrambles upon the impact, and Barcelos grabs his shorts in hopes of hanging on. Herzog admonishes him for the foul, and Jackson squirms his way out. Barcelos looks to jab his way in, but the range is a seemingly insurmountable task for the older man when he tries to box. Barcelos has to sell out and rush forward to swing, but when he gets close enough, he grabs hold of “Quik” and hurls him to the mat like a junior high wrestling coach against a new recruit. Jackson turns to his side, and Barcelos starts fishing for rear-naked choke. On the third attempt, it is under the chin, but Jackson is not about to give up. Time is up before the submission is complete.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Herzog informs Barcelos between rounds to not grab the shorts or commit any position-changing fouls lest he deduct a point. They engage again, with Barcelos slowly, methodically working his way in. He looks to counter even with Jackson the far longer man, and he does not sell out or get reckless to advance. When he finds his openings, he draws ever closer, until he is near enough to crash the pocket and go for a level change. Jackson keeps his balance with his back to the cage, and he works his way out and resets.
Barcelos stays pressing the pace, walking through the fire that Jackson swings at him with every single effective blow. Barcelos takes the strikes on the chin and looks to engage his grappling. He does not force the action or put himself off-balance, instead measuring his blows efficiently to set up and further open up offense. Barcelos beats on his opponent until Jackson turns around to give up his back, and with seconds to spare, Barcelos once again goes for the rear-naked choke. The Brazilian wraps his left arm under the chin, and Jackson keeps his hand ready to tap but hears his corner saying he can make it to the bell and does just that.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The grizzled veteran—14 UFC fights to Jackson’s 12—Barcelos goes right after Jackson in the final frame, looking to take the offense out of his opponent and prevent him from landing hard on him. As he controls Jackson against the cage for a prolonged time, he cannot secure a level change. Jackson works his way out, and Barcelos chases him and gives him a right hand on the jaw to think about. Jackson appears surprise, and he fires big punches at Barcelos that Barcelos ducks. Barcelos gets his hands on Jackson, and he sweeps the leg and puts Jackson down.
Jackson works back to his feet and lifts Barcelos off the ground with a knee in the clinch. Barcelos throws one back, and they trade hands up close until Jackson gets the space he was seeking. Jackson doubles up on a jab to the temple, whipping a rear-leg high kick at him that Barcelos blocks in time. Barcelos walks through the offense to wrap his hands around Jackson, where he takes him for a ride with a trip and throw. Jackson bounces back up, and Barcelos looks for a mat return with a single. Barcelos boots Jackson right in the face, bloodying his nose with it, and he lets Jackson charge him to turn that against him. Like the previous two rounds, Barcelos takes the back position and is fishing for a choke. Also like those rounds, there is no truly deep submission, so time expires and it’s all up to the judges. It could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Montel Jackson via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Montel Jackson

Angelo leans on Montel Jackson, noting his power and wrestling background. He points out that Jackson's three UFC losses came when he couldn't defend takedowns, but believes Raoni Barcelos's age may prevent him from getting takedowns. He worries that Jackson might be gunshy due to wrestling concerns, which could allow Barcelos to win with empty takedowns. He says Montel should win but the fight could get weird.

"I'm going to lean Montel here. But, I am worried that he's going to be gunshy because he's worried about the wrestling."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson but with hesitation. He acknowledges Jackson's talent and power but notes his inconsistency and lack of effort in some fights. He believes if Jackson shows up, he can knock out Barcelos, who is older and has a questionable chin. However, he warns that Jackson could lose if he doesn't try.

Jackson wins by first round knockout

"Give me Jackson here. Jackson to win this fight by first round knockout."

DFS by the Numbers

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Raoni Barcelos

The host notes Jackson has many physical advantages but is mentally inconsistent, often passive and inactive. Barcelos is mentally strong, high output, and aggressive. He believes Barcelos has a good chance if Jackson is not at his best. He prefers Barcelos +3.5 because Jackson lacks killer instinct and often goes to decision, and Barcelos should win at least one round.

Barcelos +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision

"Barcelos very live underdog here, very risky to bet him cuz he's second best everywhere, but if Jackson's not at his best, I think there's a really good chance that Barcelos will outwork him."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

James picks Barcelos as an underdog, believing his veteran skills and pocket boxing will overcome Jackson's power. He thinks Barcelos can follow the blueprint from Figueiredo's win over Jackson, using takedowns and pressure to win a decision or late submission.

"I'm going to pick him as the underdog here. I'm going to say Barcelos gets a probably a decision win."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Barcelos is on a four-fight winning streak with improved durability and a well-rounded game. He can use lateral movement, kicks, and wrestling to neutralize Jackson's power. Jackson is gun-shy and struggles against wrestlers. Barcelos has more paths to victory and should win a decision, though he risks getting knocked out if he gets caught clean.

"I think Barcelos has more paths to victory here and I think he can successfully stay away from the knockout power of Jackson."

MMA Lock of the Night

WIN vs Ricky Simón

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Ricky Simón	0	67 of 181	37%	77 of 191	0 of 6	0%	0	1	1:25
Raoni Barcelos	0	82 of 187	43%	86 of 194	1 of 8	12%	0	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Ricky Simón	24 of 52	46%	34 of 62	0 of 2	0%	1	0:45
1	Raoni Barcelos	16 of 33	48%	19 of 39	1 of 3	33%	0	0:09
2	Ricky Simón	16 of 47	34%	16 of 47	0 of 3	0%	0	0:40
2	Raoni Barcelos	32 of 71	45%	33 of 72	0 of 2	0%	0	0:00
3	Ricky Simón	27 of 82	32%	27 of 82	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
3	Raoni Barcelos	34 of 83	40%	34 of 83	0 of 3	0%	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Ricky Simón	67 of 181	37%	57 of 165	9 of 15	1 of 1	58 of 170	3 of 4	6 of 7
Raoni Barcelos	82 of 187	43%	53 of 150	19 of 24	10 of 13	80 of 184	2 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Ricky Simón	24 of 52	46%	20 of 46	4 of 6	0 of 0	16 of 42	2 of 3	6 of 7
1	Raoni Barcelos	16 of 33	48%	9 of 26	3 of 3	4 of 4	15 of 31	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Ricky Simón	16 of 47	34%	13 of 44	2 of 2	1 of 1	15 of 46	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	32 of 71	45%	21 of 57	8 of 9	3 of 5	32 of 71	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Ricky Simón	27 of 82	32%	24 of 75	3 of 7	0 of 0	27 of 82	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Raoni Barcelos	34 of 83	40%	23 of 67	8 of 12	3 of 4	33 of 82	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Ricky Simon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-160); Barcelos (+130)

Round 1
Sticking to the bantamweight division but flipping over to men, a pair of relative elder statesmen in the promotion come to blows with hopes of pushing their unlikely win streaks one step forward. Some six and a half years after getting wasted by Urijah Faber and totally written off, Simon (22-6, 10-5 UFC) has gone on a pair of respectable runs since then. The same can be said for 38-year-old Barcelos (20-5, 9-4 UFC), who once had a rough patch where he dropped four of five. Someone’s fortuitous stretch is about to crash into the proverbial wall, and referee Keith Peterson will follow the athletes every step of the nonsense-free way. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
Simon sprints to the center of the cage and looses a head kick that goes wide. He pushes out a front kick, and Barcelos whizzes past him with a fireball of a right hand. Barcelos jabs the body and allows Simon to leap at him, staying out of range so there is no strike to come from it. Simon sticks the Brazilian and moves, and Barcelos strides forward and is belted with an uppercut. Barcelos takes it well, and the two consider grappling but bail on it to brawl it out. Both men are putting everything into their swings, and Barcelos clips Simon and then shoots in for a double. Simon scrambles wildly and flips Barcelos over, where he starts smacking Barcelos around with high-arcing hammerfists.
Simon lashes out with elbows while Barcelos keeps him contained with butterfly hooks, and both men trade while in a horizontal position until Barcelos kicks off to stand up. Simon reaches him at the end of a right hand, and Barcelos wings on the overhand right counter. Simon dings the Brazilian with a one-two, and his jab is money. Barcelos smashes Simon in the face with a ruthless right hand, and somehow Simon not only sticks with it but returns fire with an uppercut that nearly lifts his man off the ground. Both men are no worse for wear from the mighty exchange, and Simon tries to sneak in a head kick that is blocked in time. Barcelos opens up upstairs with a pair of punches, and Simon backs him off with jabs. Barcelos tries to take the fight down, and he abandons it to slash out with an elbow up top. A final Simon takedown is blocked to end what was a close, tense round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 2
Barcelos starts off the round with a double jab and a right hand up top. Simon swings back with a huge overhand right, and Barcelos ducks it and plants a right on the jaw. Barcelos times a thumping calf kick and overswings on a right hand while chasing the man, and Simon knees him in the jaw. Barcelos digs a left to the body, and Simon’s quick kick and right hand greet him in rapid succession. Barcelos scrapes the side of his uppercut off the head, and he drops down for a low single and hurls Simon to a knee. Simon scrambles out of reach and gets back to his feet, only for Barcelos to ring his bell with a crisp uppercut and a power right hand. Barcelos crashes into his foe with a leaping uppercut, and Simon tries to time a double when he lands. Simon pushes Barcelos up against the wire, but the sprawl of Barcelos prevents the Washington native from going anywhere. Barcelos escapes with little more than a knee to the belly, and he allows Simon to circle all the way around him so he can find his angle in. Simon lands first with a right, but Barcelos connects last and the heavier of the two.
Barcelos goes to the body and then head, and he scoops Simon up and deposits him gingerly on the canvas. Simon jumps right back up, and Barcelos does not mind as he can trade hands with his foe. Simon scores an uppercut, and Barcelos reaches him with three punches over the guard. A naked leg kick from Simon is met with a two-punch salvo, and Barcelos rips a right to the body to punctuate the combo. Simon counters a low kick with a right hand, and Barcelos stands firm and jacks him in the jaw with a right hand and an uppercut. Simon dances and keeps Barcelos guessing with awkward movement, entries and exits that rely on speed and potshots with evasive movement. They both shoot at the same time and clash heads like bulls, and proceed to trade punches and kicks to end what is another tight round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The final round opens with the Brazilian pushing the pace. He watches Simon attack and sways to dodge everything but an uppercut, and he storms back to nail Simon with a one-two that forces a takedown shot. Barcelos sits down on a right hand, Simon replies, and Barcelos comes over the top. Barcelos leaps in and lands a right after Simon’s strike connects on him, and Simon’s jab has bloodied the bridge of the Brazilian’s beak. Barcelos rubs his nose and busts Simon in the chops with a stiff right hand. Simon’s one-two also scores, but Barcelos still has the power edge and is putting more strikes together.
Both men go back and forth with their offensive offerings, with Simon just missing an uppercut when Barcelos ducked down. Barcelos jams a knee to the body, and he plants his shin on the side of Simon’s lead leg. Barcelos drops down for a snatch single, and he releases it and busts open Simon’s nose with power punches. Barcelos follows a punch with a high kick, and then goes back to a one-two. Simon’s stabbing jab is effective, as is his overhand right and uppercut to follow, but Barcelos stuns him when landing flush. Barcelos’ rights have Simon’s attention, and Simon tries to walk him down to attack the liver but finds himself in a slugfest. Barcelos goes after a double and bails on it to come back with an elbow, and knees fly from both men effectively after. Simon steps in with a sharp elbow, and both fighters unload their gas tanks and swing for the bleachers. Simon takes a kick in the face and screams for Barcelos to keep engaging, and they bang it out to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Ricky Simón

Angelo picks Ricky Simon because of his non-stop wrestling pace and power in his hands. He believes even if Raoni Barcelos has early takedown defense, Simon's relentless pressure will eventually get takedowns. He notes that Barcelos is aging and that wrestlers are not spectacular off their backs.

"I'm still picking Ricky here. I feel pretty good about it. Ricky's wrestling is non-stop, so even if Haney has early takedown defense, I don't think it's going to remain throughout 15 full minutes."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Big Brady struggles with this pick, noting Simón has looked awful in recent fights and may be slowing down due to accumulated damage. He thinks Barcelos has better striking and both have questionable chins. He leans with the 38-year-old Barcelos to win by decision, but admits it's a sketchy pick.

decision

"I'm going to lean with the 38-year-old and Barcelos to win this fight by decision, but this is one that's definitely sketching me out a little bit."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and superior boxing volume. He thinks Simón's wrestling will be neutralized and Barcelos will outwork him over three rounds.

"Overall after 15 minutes, Ronnie Barcelos should have the bigger and greater body of work. So he should get the nod in my opinion and I'm gonna pick him."

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Ricky Simón

Lucrative James is confident in Ricky Simón, going against the market. He believes Simón's wrestling and cardio advantage will be key, as Barcelos ages and has shown a deteriorating chin and gas tank. He expects Simón to mix takedowns and land big overhands, possibly finishing Barcelos. He also notes Barcelos has been hurt in recent fights.

"I'm going to pick Ricky Simone. I think Ricky Simone can hurt and actually finish Barcelos on the feet with big overhands."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ricky Simón

The host acknowledges Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but believes Simón's wrestling, athleticism, speed, and power will be decisive. He expects Simón to find a big shot and knock Barcelos out.

Knockout

"I believe Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but Simone is the better wrestler and closer to his prime. And I think that should allow him to utilize his athleticism advantage, speed advantage, and power edge."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Paul sees it as a 50/50 fight but likes Barcelos at plus money. He thinks if Simón can't get takedowns, Barcelos's striking and experience will carry him.

"Rowdy at plus 140, plus 150 seems like a decent little shot."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ricky Simón

The Guru picks Ricky Simón to win by first-round TKO. He believes Simón's well-rounded game and explosiveness will overwhelm the aging Barcelos, who relies on exploiting specific weaknesses. He notes Simón has no glaring holes in his grappling or pressure defense, unlike Barcelos's previous opponents.

round 1 TKO

"I'm going to go Ricky Simone getting this one done by a TKO finish in the first round."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Cody Garbrandt

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Cody Garbrandt	0	28 of 94	29%	45 of 111	0 of 7	0%	0	1	0:46
Raoni Barcelos	0	37 of 85	43%	43 of 93	1 of 11	9%	0	0	2:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Cody Garbrandt	10 of 44	22%	10 of 44	0 of 1	0%	0	0:11
1	Raoni Barcelos	6 of 19	31%	8 of 21	1 of 5	20%	0	0:16
2	Cody Garbrandt	6 of 27	22%	14 of 35	0 of 3	0%	0	0:02
2	Raoni Barcelos	15 of 35	42%	17 of 38	0 of 5	0%	0	0:31
3	Cody Garbrandt	12 of 23	52%	21 of 32	0 of 3	0%	1	0:33
3	Raoni Barcelos	16 of 31	51%	18 of 34	0 of 1	0%	0	1:39

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Cody Garbrandt	28 of 94	29%	23 of 85	3 of 7	2 of 2	22 of 86	6 of 7	0 of 1
Raoni Barcelos	37 of 85	43%	31 of 75	0 of 3	6 of 7	33 of 76	4 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Cody Garbrandt	10 of 44	22%	10 of 42	0 of 2	0 of 0	8 of 42	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Raoni Barcelos	6 of 19	31%	5 of 15	0 of 2	1 of 2	4 of 17	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Cody Garbrandt	6 of 27	22%	4 of 24	1 of 2	1 of 1	4 of 24	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	15 of 35	42%	14 of 33	0 of 1	1 of 1	13 of 28	2 of 7	0 of 0
3	Cody Garbrandt	12 of 23	52%	9 of 19	2 of 3	1 of 1	10 of 20	2 of 2	0 of 1
3	Raoni Barcelos	16 of 31	51%	12 of 27	0 of 0	4 of 4	16 of 31	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Cody Garbrandt
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barcelos (-180), Garbrandt (+150)

Round 1
Of the three Codys competing tonight, Garbrandt (14-6, 9-6 UFC) is the last one to try to get on the board for his namesake. The former champ, who celebrates about 80% of his wins by knockout, takes on a man five years his elder but no less dangerous than ever in Barcelos (19-5, 8-4 UFC). Most notably, the Brazilian derailed the hype train of Payton Talbott in January, firmly ruling out that he was washed up and ready to get tucked into bed. Referee Mike Beltran draws the assignment to watch over the bantamweights, watching them bump fists together to start the match. Garbrandt starts fast, rushing forward with four punches and a head kick. Barcelos bounces off the fence, and Garbrandt surges towards him with a trio of flying fists. Another combo comes from the former champ, and Barcelos ducks it and tries to take him down. Garbrandt hops away and resets, already wary of the possible takedown in play. Garbrandt measures with a single body kick, and he rails Barcelos with three speedy punches. Barcelos drops to a knee, and Garbrandt points at him. As Barcelos stands, he goes after a takedown. Garbrandt ducks away from it, dodges an overhand right and falls to 50/50 when Barcelos looks for a takedown. When the takedown does not materialize, Barcelos leaps at him and splits open Garbrandt’s eyebrow with his knee. Garbrandt backs away, avoiding a flying switch kick as chants for “Let’s go, Cody” echo in the building. Barcelos lands first after they stop calling for the former champ, working the body with a left. Barcelos has a head kick slap off the raised guard, and he rolls with a right hand over the top. Garbrandt swings and misses with a pair of punches, and his second effort to the body gets in. “No Love” shows Barcelos no love by tossing him out of the way, although the Brazilian recovers and fires off an uppercut that gets through. Garbrandt knees up the middle and tags Barcelos with two fast punches, and Barcelos gets his attention with a strong overhand right. Garbrandt thinks about showboating or dancing but evaluates that the strike did some damage and plays it cool. Barcelos attacks a single, and Garbrandt pops out of it and partially checks a calf kick flying at him. Garbrandt has three or four punches land, and he does a little dance. Barcelos takes him down, and Garbrandt gets away with an illegal upkick while scrambling. Barcelos climbs into top position, lands a few hammerfists, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt

Round 2
The fighters high-five before getting after it, and Barcelos is quick to engage his wrestling. Garbrandt’s overhand right goes wide, and he plants his feet to defend the takedown effort. Another try also comes up short, and Garbrandt pushes off and loads up on quick punches. Barcelos chases Garbrandt around the outer edge of the cage, chambering and firing a right hand but missing with the follow-up. Barcelos chops down the front leg, and he ducks down and eats a right hand while looking for a single. When the takedown is not successful, Barcelos clips him with two right hands. Garbrandt defends a double, but a knee up the middle from the Brazilian tags him cleanly. Garbrandt puts out two punches that further develop some swelling on Barcelos’ right cheek, but Barcelos ignores it and shoots for a single. Garbrandt stuffs it, turns his man to the side and elbows him cleanly for it. Barcelos keeps the pressure up, walking through a low kick and a body shot to catch “No Love” with his overhand right. Barcelos times a crisp uppercut and drops down for a single, lifting Garbrandt’s leg way up in the air. Garbrandt still stays upright, takes a right hand and puts his leg down. Barcelos connects with another big right, and he reaches out with one to the midsection. Barcelos jabs his way forward, scooting back to avoid all but a left hand in a combination. Garbrandt rolls with a right hand on the way out, but the jab from the Brazilian is finding its home repeatedly. Barcelos loads up on a right hand and ducks down, before unleashing another right hand that nearly puts the champ down. The round ends with Garbrandt shooting for a desperation takedown.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and Barcelos gets right back to pressuring. Garbrandt keeps him at bay for less than a second with a body kick, as Barcelos walks him down behind his overhand right. Garbrandt shoots for a single, and Barcelos laughs it off. A second takedown from Garbrandt is nowhere near being successful, and Barcelos pays him back with a calf kick that turns Garbrandt’s knee. Garbrandt gives him back two low kicks to think about, and he absorbs a flush right hand when circling away. Barcelos kicks at his front leg again, setting up his jab and right hand. Garbrandt rushes forward but is out of range for his combo, and he gets sat down with a leg kick. The former champ shoots for a takedown and finds his way into a guillotine choke setup, but he breaks out of is as he leans against Barcelos. The Brazilian breaks free, and Garbrandt connects at the end of a right and a left. Barcelos clubs him with a one-two that forces the striker to shoot in on his hips, and he holds Garbrandt down and circles around to the side in hopes of taking the back. Barcelos manages to take the back after softening Garbrandt up, and he sneaks a hook in. “No Love” lands some no-look punches, but Barcelos is singularly focused on shutting down any hopes of escape. Garbrandt pushes his feet on the wall to turn himself around, where he drops down two punches before Barcelos explodes. The two fighters burst back to their feet and start slugging it out, with Garbrandt landing flush and Barcelos doing the same. Garbrandt waves him on, and Barcelos instead backs off. Garbrandt scores a right hand and is chucked out of the way like a child’s plaything when attempting a single. Garbrandt points to the ground to initiate a brawl, but Barcelos goes the opposite direction and evades him until the fight wraps. Barring something unexpected, all three Codys struck out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Cody Garbrandt via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Cody Garbrandt

Angelo leans Cody because he is faster and has power, while Raoni lacks power in his hands. He warns that Cody must avoid getting taken down. He is not confident enough to bet on Cody given his recent struggles.

I don't think I'm going to bet

"I think I'm going to slightly lean Cody here. I think he'll be a little faster."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Cody Garbrandt

Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by second-round knockout. He believes Garbrandt's takedown defense is elite (80%) and that he can keep the fight standing. He notes Barcelos is 38 with a questionable chin, and Garbrandt has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges multiple outcomes but leans toward a knockout.

second round knockout

"Cody Garbrandt stuffs the takedowns, keeps it on the feet, lands a big shot, and knocks out the 38-year-old Hani Barcelos in the second round."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Connor picks Barcelos, emphasizing that Garbrandt's wrestling has declined and that Barcelos's chain wrestling and takedown variety will be a major threat. He notes that Garbrandt's tunnel vision when he feels confident often leads to him getting taken down, as seen against Figueiredo. Connor also points out that Barcelos is 38 and chinny, so Garbrandt could still knock him out, but Barcelos's wrestling should be the deciding factor.

Garbrandt opened at +117, now +159; Barcelos opened at -153, now -183. Connor agrees the line should not be too wide.

"I'm picking barcellos but i like the fight this is a good this is a good use of both men"

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Cody Garbrandt

Despite public love for Barcelos after his upset win, Garbrandt has good takedown defense and superior striking. He will chip away at Barcelos and win a decision.

"I think Garbrandt has good enough takedown defense and the ability to put together a better striking game... pulling off the upset and winning this fight on the scorecards."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

The Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, stating he is 'done with Cody Garbrandt.' He criticizes Garbrandt's fundamental flaws in striking and grappling, such as giving up his back and poor low kicks. He notes Barcelos has faced tough competition and fraud-checked Payton Talbott. He expects Barcelos to win by decision or TKO in the second round.

"I'm just going to go with Hani Barcelos. I think I think I'm done with Cody to be honest. ... I can't pick Garbrandt to win a fight in 2025."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Zane picks Barcelos, citing his deep wrestling game and ability to chain takedowns, which should be effective against Garbrandt's shaky takedown defense. He notes that Garbrandt has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and that Barcelos's wrestling has improved with age. However, Zane acknowledges that Barcelos's striking has become a liability and that Garbrandt still has one-punch power, making this a dangerous fight for both.

Garbrandt opened at +117, now +159; Barcelos opened at -153, now -183. Zane says if Garbrandt becomes a much bigger underdog, he might become a bet.

"I have to pick barcellos but like these guys are at a point in their career where they are asking each other the right questions"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Payton Talbott

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos	0	49 of 84	58%	59 of 95	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:25
Payton Talbott	0	62 of 85	72%	91 of 115	8 of 15	53%	2	0	9:43

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Raoni Barcelos	2 of 2	100%	2 of 3	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Payton Talbott	8 of 11	72%	19 of 23	3 of 4	75%	1	4:51
2	Raoni Barcelos	25 of 44	56%	26 of 45	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Payton Talbott	17 of 22	77%	23 of 28	3 of 8	37%	0	2:35
3	Raoni Barcelos	22 of 38	57%	31 of 47	1 of 1	100%	0	1:25
3	Payton Talbott	37 of 52	71%	49 of 64	2 of 3	66%	1	2:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raoni Barcelos	49 of 84	58%	39 of 74	7 of 7	3 of 3	37 of 67	7 of 10	5 of 7
Payton Talbott	62 of 85	72%	59 of 81	2 of 3	1 of 1	18 of 30	5 of 5	39 of 50

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raoni Barcelos	2 of 2	100%	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 1	1 of 1	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Payton Talbott	8 of 11	72%	8 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	8 of 11
2	Raoni Barcelos	25 of 44	56%	21 of 40	2 of 2	2 of 2	25 of 44	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Payton Talbott	17 of 22	77%	14 of 19	2 of 2	1 of 1	11 of 16	2 of 2	4 of 4
3	Raoni Barcelos	22 of 38	57%	18 of 34	4 of 4	0 of 0	11 of 22	6 of 9	5 of 7
3	Payton Talbott	37 of 52	71%	37 of 51	0 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 14	3 of 3	27 of 35

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Payton Talbott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Talbott (-1200), Barcelos (+750)

Round 1
A red-hot commodity in flashy, undefeated Talbott (9-0, 3-0 UFC) will serve as the preliminary headliner, hoping to wrest the torch from aging Brazilian Barcelos (18-5, 7-4 UFC) in a pivotal bantamweight affair. Talbott has only heard the final bell one time, while his opponent can say he has been involved with more decisions than Talbott has pro fights. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the arbiter of this bout, and the fighters acknowledge him and one another but do not tap their gloves together. Barcelos starts the fight by leaping at Talbott’s left leg, pursuing a single without letting the youngster get started. Talbott backs himself to the wall and sets up a guillotine choke, but the veteran trips him up and puts him on his seat without fear of the submission. Talbott is loudly warned by grabbing inside of Barcelos’ gloves, and he wall-walks to get back up and lean against the fence. Barcelos laces his legs between his opponent’s in hopes of snaking him down, and he jumps on Talbott’s back to further threaten him. Talbott shakes him off, and Barcelos tries again to be a malicious backpack but settles for pulling the unbeaten fighter face-first to the floor. Barcelos wraps his leg around the waist for a single hook, and Talbott is once more warned for foot grabs. Barcelos times a Talbott scramble perfectly to wrap his forearm around the neck, only to let it go so he can start slugging Talbott on the side of the head. Talbott turns to his side while under fire, and he fights off a choke and finds himself in a second. Barcelos does not have the choke under the chin and is more neck/face cranking him to make his life miserable, and he once more releases it to shift into full mount. The Brazilian drops down a powerful elbow and he moves to half guard to he can set up an arm-triangle choke, squeezing down hard but not going for broke to get it done. Talbott remains calm and composed despite getting dominated, and Barcelos leaps over him and holds him down from the other side while in half guard. Barcelos gets directly to full mount like a hot knife cutting through butter, and he lets Talbott give up his back so he can go for one final choke before time runs out in the round. The one-sided round ends before Barcelos can get it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos

Round 2
The fighters race towards one another to start the second round, and Talbott is the aggressor as he pushes jabs out to keep Barcelos honest. Barcelos scores a few low kicks, but one is met with a right hand over the top. Barcelos shoots, and Talbott shuts him down. As Talbott slides forward to strike, Barcelos deftly trips him up and places him flat on his back. Barcelos lands immediately in half guard, and he is active on top. Talbott scrambles to get to his knees, and he takes a knee on the chin while freeing himself. Talbott walks Barcelos down with long, straight punches, and Barcelos returns fire with a right hand that leads into a clean takedown. The Brazilian hits the mat on top in side control, and he leaps into full mount uncontested. Barcelos gets a little high, and before Talbott can buck him off or sneak out the back, he moves himself down a bit. This does not matter, as Talbott still escapes to get up, but not before taking a knee on the liver. Talbott is surprised by the strike, opening Barcelos up to nail him with a spinning back fist. The prospect walks forward ready to trade, and he connects with a few punches only to get nailed with a right hand on the way back. Talbott smiles and waves him on, as he is much more comfortable in a wild striking exchange than a grappling affair. Talbott shucks off a takedown and connects with a powerful uppercut, and he fights off another takedown try. On the third, Barcelos manages to wrangle Talbott to the floor, and he gets to half guard and hops to the side to drop down a powerful elbow. As Barcelos is about to set up a crucifix, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The bantamweights get right to it to start off the last round, with Talbott pressuring fully and clipping Barcelos with an uppercut. A few more punches are strung together, and Barcelos goes after a telegraphed takedown. Talbott sees it coming and hits a beautiful throw that reverses the Brazilian and puts him on the mat. As “USA” chants echo through the Intuit Dome, Barcelos worms his way to the fencing but absorbs some ground-and-pound to get there. Talbott scores a few punches, and Barcelos tosses his leg up to hook an omoplata shoulder lock. As he does this, he hooks his hand in the fence, and Dean sees it and pauses the fight. Dean offers to take away the position from the foul, and when Talbott says no, they resume in the position they left off. Barcelos explodes back to his feet and blasts the youngster with a flurry of punches, including a flying knee that does some damage. Talbott responds with a flying knee that rocks the Brazilian, and as they both hit the ground from wild strikes, they climb back up and trade again. Barcelos backs off to take some breathes, and Talbott drops his hands and marches forward like a Terminator. Barcelos fakes a level change, and Talbott answers with a spinning wheel kick that slaps him in the face. Barcelos grins and attacks another takedown, landing it and taking some of the wind out of the American’s sails. Talbott turns to his knees, and Barcelos follows him every step of the way and wraps his legs around his waist. Barcelos slides into full mount when Talbott turns to his back, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke. Barcelos releases the choke and sits up to wrench on the arm with an unorthodox straight armbar, and he switches gears for a rear-naked choke that is not under the chin. Talbott signals a thumbs-up, and Barcelos lets it go to pound on Talbott with punctuating ground-and-pound. Barcelos unleashes a fury of punches and elbows, laying down one final bombardment that only ends with 15 minutes elapsing—a few more seconds and he might have gotten the stoppage. The elder statesman put on a show here, shutting down the likely formerly unbeaten prospect and spring what may be “Upset of the Year” with Talbott closing with a betting line around -1200. What a performance, as Barcelos appears to have found the fountain of youth at the tender age of 37.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Payton Talbott via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

Angelo is extremely confident in Payton Talbott, citing his youth, speed, and striking ability. He believes the age and speed gap will be decisive and expects Talbott to potentially knock out Barcelos. He warns against betting Talbott at -1200, calling it too risky.

Do not bet on -1200 favorite.

"pyon talot should win this fight now should you bet on him no these are fist fights minus 1200 is far too gone"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

Cody picks Payton Talbott confidently, viewing him as a rising star. He notes Talbott's exceptional striking, athleticism, and rapidly improving takedown defense. Cody points out that Barcelos is 37 and has slowed down, with recent losses showing regression in wrestling, striking defense, and reflexes. He believes Talbott's speed and power will be too much, and that Barcelos's best days are behind him. Cody expects Talbott to win dominantly, possibly by knockout.

No specific prop bet mentioned, but Talbott is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay.

"I'm not stepping in front of the tow but... I thought about this long and hard I was like what at what number would I consider betting rowny"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout, citing his volume, power, and swag. He notes that Barcelos is almost 40 and has taken too much damage in recent fights. Daniel mentions that Barcelos is a savvy vet but Talbott is quicker, younger, and more durable. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects Talbott to win by knockout.

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects a flashy finish.

"I'm gonna go pay and Tabet here by knockout"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Payton Talbott

The host is a huge Barcelos fan but acknowledges Talbott is a much slicker striker who uses speed and power to land big shots. He expects Talbott to put Barcelos away in under one and a half rounds.

under 1.5 rounds

"he's going up against a much Slicker Striker who utilizes speed and power to land big shots on celos and put him away in under one and a half rounds"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Talbott. He notes that Talbott looks like he's in the Matrix and is a new-generation fighter. Paul believes Barcelos is too slow and past his prime, and that Talbott's speed and striking will be decisive. He also mentions that Barcelos has been taken down and outworked by younger fighters recently. Paul is not stepping in front of the Talbott train.

No specific prop bet mentioned.

"I'm not stepping in front of talbet here bro"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

The MMA Guru picks Payton Talbott to win by TKO. He notes Barcelos' chin is deteriorating with age (37), and Talbott is a big bantamweight with reach advantage. He worries about Talbott's activity and social media distractions but believes he will catch Barcelos on the feet. He predicts a KO late in the first or second round.

TKO

"I'm actually going to go with another KO win for pton tabot maybe late in the first or in the second round"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Cristian Quiñonez

Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:04 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos	0	29 of 82	35%	43 of 99	2 of 7	28%	0	0	3:13
Cristian Quiñonez	0	43 of 74	58%	48 of 81	2 of 12	16%	2	0	1:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Raoni Barcelos	4 of 20	20%	17 of 35	2 of 6	33%	0	3:13
1	Cristian Quiñonez	12 of 16	75%	13 of 18	1 of 5	20%	0	0:19
2	Raoni Barcelos	18 of 49	36%	19 of 51	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
2	Cristian Quiñonez	20 of 44	45%	22 of 46	0 of 6	0%	1	0:15
3	Raoni Barcelos	7 of 13	53%	7 of 13	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Cristian Quiñonez	11 of 14	78%	13 of 17	1 of 1	100%	1	0:28

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raoni Barcelos	29 of 82	35%	17 of 67	3 of 6	9 of 9	26 of 75	3 of 7	0 of 0
Cristian Quiñonez	43 of 74	58%	26 of 54	5 of 7	12 of 13	38 of 68	4 of 5	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raoni Barcelos	4 of 20	20%	2 of 17	1 of 2	1 of 1	3 of 17	1 of 3	0 of 0
1	Cristian Quiñonez	12 of 16	75%	7 of 11	1 of 1	4 of 4	11 of 14	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	18 of 49	36%	13 of 42	1 of 3	4 of 4	16 of 45	2 of 4	0 of 0
2	Cristian Quiñonez	20 of 44	45%	15 of 36	2 of 4	3 of 4	16 of 40	3 of 3	1 of 1
3	Raoni Barcelos	7 of 13	53%	2 of 8	1 of 1	4 of 4	7 of 13	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Cristian Quiñonez	11 of 14	78%	4 of 7	2 of 2	5 of 5	11 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Cristian Quinonez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barcelos (-175), Quinonez (+145)

Round 1
Wrapping up the preliminaries with a bantamweight clash, 27-year-old Mexico native Quinonez (18-4, 1-1 UFC) wants to usher in a new generation of fighters and boot out aging competitors like Barcelos (17-5, 6-4 UFC), age 36. To keep things on the up-and-up, referee Bladimir Puga will take charge in the cage. There is a quick glove touch to precede the action, and Quinonez reaches out with multiple jabs only to get pushed back by a front kick. Barcelos chops down the lead leg with a kick, and he shoots in for a single that gets stuffed. Quinonez reaches him with a long right hand, and he flicks out a jab and a right to follow. Barcelos lands a low kick and drills the Mexican in the side of the head with a right hand, and Quinonez reels and backs himself to the cage. Barcelos attempts a takedown, and Quinonez stops it and turns him around against the wall. Quinonez drives a knee to the solar plexus, and he hangs on Barcelos to take some of the sting out of his shots. Barcelos tries for a throw, and both men climb back up. Barcelos tags his man with a right hand, and Quinonez reels and retaliates with a quick left hook. Barcelos swings with bad intentions, and Quinonez smoothly dodges the offense and prepares his counters. When Barcelos lands a single low kick, Quinonez greets him with four punches to the body and head. Barcelos continues moving forward, landing a double and dragging Quinonez to the floor. Quinonez pops back up, and he succeeds in wrenching Barcelos to the mat briefly in response. Quinonez looks for a body lock takedown, and Barcelos grabs the fence to prevent himself getting taken down as Puga slaps his hand. Barcelos again tugs on the cage to stop a takedown, and Puga once more warns him loudly while slapping his hand. Barcelos takes a few knees to the head, and Barcelos gets pulled away from the cage briefly. Barcelos gets away with another fence grab, and he spins with an elbow that grazes off the head. Quinonez wrestles his man to the mat in a scramble, and Puga shouts to Barcelos to not grab the cage. Quinonez sits on top of his opponent in partial side control, and he rains down right hands and an elbow to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez

Round 2
The bantamweights touch gloves to get started in the second round, and Barcelos hops out with a leg kick. Quinonez flicks out a high kick and aims one low, and he pushes out a jab before Barcelos can meet him with a response. Barcelos charges with two right hands, and Quinonez shoulder rolls and keeps flowing to not eat any further strikes from the Brazilian. Quinonez kicks low and high, with the second shot blocked. Quinonez parries a strike coming his way, and he absorbs a low kick after missing a right hand. Barcelos lands a leg kick, and he backs his man off with two lunging punches. Quinonez resets and wings a right, and he prods the Brazilian’s nose with a few jabs. Barcelos comes up short on a shovel uppercut, and Quinonez keeps his range with jabs. Barcelos sits down on a leg kick, and he shrugs off a right hand so he can land two of his own. They both jab at the same time, and Barcelos reaches out to connect with a heavy right hand. Quinonez retaliates with a blistering right hand, and as he staggers the Brazilian, he finds himself getting taken down. Quinonez stands back up, and he gets rocked with a right hand coming his way. Quinonez drops to a knee, and Barcelos blasts him in the chest with a knee. Quinonez protests, and Puga says it was legal, so Barcelos sprints at him and hurts him with a combination. As Quinonez is in sudden danger, Barcelos grips hold of a standing guillotine choke to boot. Barcelos cannot complete the submission, and he backs off to take a breath. Both men start trading shots, and as Barcelos starts to fade, Quinonez stays in his face and tags Barcelos with a straight right hand. Barcelos goes for a single, and Quinonez springs to the side to stay on his feet. Both men land with right hands, and Barcelos gives chase to toss out two more. Quinonez dings his foe with a leg kick and two punches, and Barcelos walks him down and lands one punch behind the ear. The two crash together right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez

Round 3
The last round opens with Quinonez trying to keep his distance, popping an oncoming Barcelos with chipping kicks and jabs. Barcelos gives chase all the while, landing occasionally, but Quinonez connects more actively. Barcelos telegraphs with big right hands, and Quinonez sees them coming and sways just enough to avoid them. Barcelos kicks him in the ribs twice, and when Quinonez responds with his own body kick, Barcelos grabs the leg and tosses Quinonez down to the canvas. Barcelos shifts to get into half guard, and he ultimately takes Quinonez’ back in a scramble.
Barcelos fastens a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye, and it is now academic at this point. Barcelos squeezes and exerts every remaining bit of his energy to complete the submission, and Quinonez has no choice but to surrender in a fight he had done well to that point.
This a crucial win for the 36-year-old, whose place on the UFC roster may have been at risk with a loss. As Barcelos celebrates his win, he also expresses a great deal of pain and hangs his left hand low, indicating that he may have sustained a shoulder injury early in the match.

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Cristian Quinonez R3 2:04 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Cristian Quiñonez

Angelo picks Quiñonez as the underdog, citing Barcelos' age (36) and recent skid. He notes that Barcelos has lost to fighters he shouldn't have and that lower weight classes age out faster. He believes Quiñonez is younger, fresher, and more durable.

"Underdog pick Christian konas he is not the better fighter in this matchup but he is absolutely the younger fresher more durable fighter"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Cristian Quiñonez

Big Brady picks Cristian Quiñonez to win by first-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes that if this fight were three years ago, he would max bet Barcelos, but Barcelos is now 36, looks older, and has durability and cardio issues. Quiñonez has power and is nine years younger, and Barcelos has been finished multiple times. However, both fighters have questionable durability, and Brady expects someone to get finished.

Quiñonez wins by KO in round 1

"I'm going to take Quinones here to to land a big shot and knock knock out barcelos I think somebody is getting served here though both these guys are are both these guys I do think can be finished but …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his superior boxing, wrestling, and experience. He notes Quiñonez has been finished in all his losses, has poor takedown defense, and gives up his back. Barcelos is a seven-time Brazilian national wrestling team member and has sharp counter-punching. He thinks Barcelos can make mistakes and still win.

"I gotta go with my boy rowny Bellos normally because I'm a big rowny Bellos you know Fanboy"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Cristian Quiñonez

The host believes Quiñonez's volume striking and footwork from distance will give Barcelos trouble. He notes Quiñonez's speed advantage and output, and his ability to stay away from pocket exchanges where Barcelos is dangerous. He also mentions Quiñonez's takedown defense and get-ups, and cautions that he must not get overzealous like in the Kong fight. He predicts a decision victory for Quiñonez.

"I think konz has the type of style that will give marcelos issues the volume style and footwork heavy style of konas from distance will allow him you to to use his speed advantage and output to try to touch …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Barcelos. He notes Quiñonez seems KO-robust but Barcelos has the skills to neutralize him. He mentions Barcelos completely neutralized Trevon Jones, outlanding him 73-11 in significant strikes. He thinks Barcelos is a fine parlay piece at -200.

"rowny seems like a fine parlay piece at minus 200 to me"

Bookie Beatdown

LOSS vs Kyler Phillips

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Kyler Phillips	1	72 of 187	38%	80 of 196	1 of 4	25%	0	0	0:47
Raoni Barcelos	0	46 of 116	39%	52 of 124	3 of 11	27%	0	0	1:42

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Kyler Phillips	1	30 of 68	44%	31 of 69	0 of 2	0%	0:11
1	Raoni Barcelos	0	18 of 45	40%	20 of 48	1 of 3	33%	0:30
2	Kyler Phillips	0	22 of 58	37%	29 of 66	1 of 1	100%	0:36
2	Raoni Barcelos	0	9 of 27	33%	11 of 30	1 of 5	20%	0:54
3	Kyler Phillips	0	20 of 61	32%	20 of 61	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Raoni Barcelos	0	19 of 44	43%	21 of 46	1 of 3	33%	0:18

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Kyler Phillips	72 of 187	38%	40 of 146	18 of 26	14 of 15	62 of 174	6 of 8	4 of 5
Raoni Barcelos	46 of 116	39%	20 of 87	15 of 17	11 of 12	39 of 105	7 of 10	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Kyler Phillips	30 of 68	44%	14 of 48	9 of 13	7 of 7	26 of 63	4 of 5	0 of 0
1	Raoni Barcelos	18 of 45	40%	12 of 38	4 of 4	2 of 3	13 of 37	5 of 7	0 of 1
2	Kyler Phillips	22 of 58	37%	16 of 51	3 of 4	3 of 3	17 of 51	1 of 2	4 of 5
2	Raoni Barcelos	9 of 27	33%	2 of 20	5 of 5	2 of 2	8 of 26	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Kyler Phillips	20 of 61	32%	10 of 47	6 of 9	4 of 5	19 of 60	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Raoni Barcelos	19 of 44	43%	6 of 29	6 of 8	7 of 7	18 of 42	1 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Kyler Phillips
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Phillips (-198), Barcelos (+164)

Round 1
Kevin MacDonald will ref this bantamweight pairing. Phillips opens with a leg kick and a 1-2. Barcelos blocks a body kick. A right connects for the Brazilian. Phillips with a stiff jab and then he partially lands an overhand right. Barcelos catches a low kick and drives Phllips into the fence. Phillips jumps guard and hunts for an armbar. He kicks Barcelos off him and hustles back up. Barcelos with a right uppercut. They trade, and Barcelos eats a head kick but catches the leg. Phillips frees himself from the body lock. Phillips moves well, landing a 1-2. Phillips has a takedown stuffed and Barcelos tags him on the exit. Moments later, a right puts Barcelos on his seat. Barcelos recovers quickly, however. Barcelos is cut on the bridge ofhis nose. Barcelos stalks his man against the fence and lands some combinations. They tie up and Barcelos is still throwing heavy leather. Phillips fires back. Barcelos flicks out a nice jab then backs up Phillips with some heavy hooks. They clinch and Phillips shoves him off. Phillips lands a glancing head kick that Barcelos catches. They continue to trade until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 2
Phillips lands a two-punch combo, catches a leg and takes Barcelos to the mat. Phillips drops some elbows while Barcelos is active with his guard. Barcelos eventually scrambles up. Barcelos blocks a high kick. Phillips with a leg kick. The pace has slowed from Round 1. Barcelos lands a right and a left hook, then shoots for a takedown. Phillips denies it. Phillips snaps his foe’s head back with a straight right. Another Phillips high kick is blocked, but he connects with a 1-2. Barcelos changes levels and has Phillips in a body lock. Phillips tries to use a kimura to defend, but Barcelos maintains his grip. He lifts Phillips and dumps him on the mat. Phillips rolls for a kneebar in a scramble and that allows him to stand. Phillips flicks out a couple of jabs. Barcelos pressures forward and they trade knees in close. Phillips fires off another jab and misses a combination at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 3
Phillips grabs a leg, lets it go and knees the midsection. Barcelos with a solid low kick. Phillips answers a high kick with a standing side kick to the gut. Phillips stays on the outside, but Barcelos partially lands a knee upstairs. Phillips kicks the body but it bounces off Barcelos’ elbow. Barcelos with an inside leg kick. He catches Phillips’ kick and dumps him to the canvas, but Phillips bounces right up. A Barcelos right uppercut digs to the body. Phillips is content to remain on the outside moving laterally. Barcelos stalks him and lands a jab. Barcelos just misses an uppercut through the guard of his foe. A front kick down the middle lands for Barcelos and he pressures with punches. Phillips lands a counter right in response. Barcelos shoots for a takedown against the fence and briefly pulls him down. Barcelos releases the body lock and deftly throws a kick upstairs. That draws a smile from Phillips before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Phillips)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Phillips)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Phillips)

The Official Result
Kyler Phillips def. Raoni Barcelos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Angelo picks Raoni Barcelos despite his recent skid, believing he is the better fighter everywhere except age and youth. He notes Barcelos has superior wrestling, technical striking, and BJJ. He warns that Kyler Phillips is sloppy and lacks one-punch power, so Barcelos should control the fight with wrestling. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Barcelos at +143 but says this is his last time betting on him and advises not to tail blindly.

0.5 units at +143

"Honey's gonna be the pick I think he's gonna use some wrestling here to control this is my last and final time betting on honey bar solos"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Big Brady is very uncertain. He notes Barcelos has elite takedown defense, so Phillips' wrestling won't work. However, Barcelos is 36, on short notice, coming off a brutal KO loss, and has declined. Phillips is coming off a PED suspension. He thinks it will be a close striking match and picks Barcelos by split decision with little confidence, saying he'd rather be on the dog money.

Barcelos by split decision; fight goes to decision

"I'll take barcelos with little to no confidence in this one"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos as a plus-money underdog, citing his well-rounded skills, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Phillips' tendency to fade in later rounds and his questionable takedown defense. He believes Barcelos can survive the first round and take over as Phillips gasses. He also suggests a live bet on Barcelos after the first round.

"I've got faith in him to get the job done plus money"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Daniel Levi picks Raoni Barcelos, though he admits he has no strong read. He likes Barcelos' well-rounded skills (black belt in BJJ, Brazilian wrestling team, good striking) but is concerned about his age (36). Levi notes that Phillips is explosive but slows down badly in fights, and that Barcelos' output and durability could be factors. He is not worried about the Umar Nurmagomedov knockout, crediting Umar's skill. Levi sees this as a tough fight and prefers the dog price on Barcelos.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action has come in on both sides.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take hyony."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)

Kyler Phillips

James thinks Barcelos is past his prime, citing recent wobbles and a knockout loss to someone with no KOs. He believes Phillips can knock him out and that the minus 200 line is about right. He also mentions Phillips could get takedowns to consolidate rounds.

Phillips by knockout

"I think Kyler Phillips is probably going to knock him out in this spot... I like him to get a finish actually."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)

Kyler Phillips

Phillips has a style that gives Barcelos problems: he moves a lot, uses distance striking and kicks, and stays out of range. Barcelos has a better gas tank and could push into deep waters, but it will be too little too late. The fight is closer than the odds suggest, but Barcelos's time has passed and Phillips is a bad stylistic matchup. I'd rather pass on this matchup entirely.

"I'd rather just pass on this matchup as a whole"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Phillips' cardio issues and Barcelos' wrestling advantage. He mentions that Phillips has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Barcelos is the toughest opponent he has faced. He sees value in the plus money.

"I could never see myself pull the trigger on minus 210 for Kyler Phillips so clear dog or pass situation"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Kyler Phillips

The host picks Kyler Phillips, citing his youth (28), diverse striking, and BJJ. He notes Barcelos is 36, coming off a knockout loss, and has slowed defensively. He believes Phillips will land fight-impacting shots and can capitalize on Barcelos' diminished chin and slower movement. He thinks Phillips may get a finish but is confident in a decision win. He finds the -200 line a bit high but still picks Phillips.

line opened -178, now -200; suggests Phillips lands a big shot

"give me Kyler Phillips to get the job done here"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Umar Nurmagomedov

KO (body kick and punch) R1 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov	1	36 of 51	70%	36 of 51	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02
Raoni Barcelos	0	13 of 24	54%	14 of 25	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	1	36 of 51	70%	36 of 51	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02
1	Raoni Barcelos	0	13 of 24	54%	14 of 25	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Umar Nurmagomedov	36 of 51	70%	20 of 32	12 of 13	4 of 6	35 of 50	0 of 0	1 of 1
Raoni Barcelos	13 of 24	54%	6 of 17	5 of 5	2 of 2	10 of 21	3 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	36 of 51	70%	20 of 32	12 of 13	4 of 6	35 of 50	0 of 0	1 of 1
1	Raoni Barcelos	13 of 24	54%	6 of 17	5 of 5	2 of 2	10 of 21	3 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-610), Barcelos (+460)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with an important bantamweight tilt between an undefeated up-and-comer in Nurmagomedov (15-0, 3-0 UFC) and an aging but still dangerous Brazilian bomber Barcelos (17-3, 6-2 UFC), with a place in the top 15 on the line. The third man in the Octagon for this one is referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in despite no touch of gloves. The two are tentative to begin, with 30 seconds of inactivity before Barcelos springs into action with a big right hand. Nurmagomedov shoulder-rolls it and changes stances, and he kicks with both legs. Barcelos sits down on a head kick, and the blocked impact echoes through the UFC Apex. Nurmagomedov looks to curl a right hand round the guard, and he plants a side kick on the breadbasket. Barcelos cuts him off while Nurmagomedov kicks away, and the Brazilian advances slowly and has a body kick connect. Nurmagomedov paws out front kicks like jabs, with the two fighting at safe kickboxing range. Barcelos kicks high and then to the body, and Nurmagomedov answers with one to the ribs of his own. The Brazilian catches his man with a quick right hand, and he crashes forward with two looping shots. Nurmagomedov counters to back him off, and he fires off a head kick that gets blocked. Barcelos defends it and swings a hammer, and Nurmagomedov barely avoids it. When they come together, they clack heads, and Barcelos appears to ask him not to do this. Barcelos shrugs off a pair of front kicks so that he can loose a kick to the side, and he takes a flush jab on the way in. Nurmagomedov chips away with kicks from both legs, and a left hand stuns Barcelos momentarily. Barcelos gathers his wits and continues to advance, throwing so hard that he crashes into the wall and ricochets off it. Nurmagomedov resettles for a small bouquet of kicks as Barcelos advances again.
The Russian lifts his knee up and turns it into a body kick, and he unloads a left hand on the same side to completely separate Barcelos from his consciousness. The Brazilian falls lifelessly to the mat on his back, with the back of his head clattering on the floor, and Nurmagomedov gives chase to drop down one single destructive hammerfist.
Realizing that his opponent is astral traveling, Nurmagomedov pulls back from any further damage, and actually puts his hand on the top of Barcelos' head to check on him like a mother and her child. Herzog sees that this fight is over, and he pulls Nurmagomedov off of the dozing Barcelos. Nurmagomedov appears genuinely concerned for his fallen opponent, and he confirms this by apologizing for destroying him in the post-fight interview. For only the second time of his career, Nurmagomedov has knocked an opponent out, and he is now a flawless 16-0 as a pro.

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Raoni Barcelos R1 4:40 via KO (Body Kick and Punch)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar but criticizes the -950 odds as absurd. He believes Umar's relentless wrestling will eventually get takedowns despite Barcelos' excellent takedown defense. He thinks Barcelos is more well-rounded and dangerous, but Umar's pressure wins a decision. He advises not betting at these odds.

"I think Umar wins this fight ... I do not think he's gonna look like a minus 950 doing it"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently despite the steep odds, calling Barcelos 'not a bum' but noting signs of decline at 35. He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the toughest test Barcelos has faced, and that he can get the fight to the mat and control him. He expects Nurmagomedov to grind out a decision, as Barcelos has good submission defense and durability. He also notes that Nurmagomedov has competitive striking and flashy kicks, but the grappling advantage should be decisive.

Nurmagomedov by decision

"I'm gonna say normange gets this done I'll say bye decision here"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar but acknowledges Barcelos' takedown defense and wrestling credentials. He thinks Umar will get takedowns and win a decision, and likes the 'Umar by decision' prop at -200. He also mentions Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar by decision at -200; Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks

"I honestly think by decision um made of super talented don't get me wrong but he'll have to work a lot harder in this fight"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Connor picks Barcelos because he has excellent takedown defense (95% in the UFC) and is a good striker with power and speed. He notes that Nurmagomedov's wrestling may not be as effective against Barcelos, and that Nurmagomedov's striking lacks depth and consistency. Connor also points out that Barcelos has shown he can compete with wrestlers and that Nurmagomedov hasn't faced significant pushback. He acknowledges the coaching change for Nurmagomedov as a potential factor.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Connor thinks the odds are absurd and that Barcelos is a top-15 bantamweight.

"I'm going to pick Barcelos here because I have yet to see anybody succeed at all against him in the wrestling and it's not the wrestling that has me concerned."

MMA Vivisection

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Jacob picks Umar but calls the line disrespectful to Barcelos. He notes Barcelos' elite takedown defense and striking, but thinks Umar's chain wrestling will eventually win. He warns that if Umar's first takedown is stuffed, bettors should sweat. He has a separate bet on the fight for premium members.

Has a bet on the fight for premium members

"I think Umar wins but let's put some respect on honey man"

We Want Picks

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul is confident in Umar, calling him the future champion. He notes Umar's striking accuracy and wrestling pedigree, and believes he will win easily. He already parlayed Umar with Ige and Rębecki at -500. He also likes Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks; parlayed with Ige and Rębecki at +167

"umar's gonna win he's probably gonna make it look easy"

Bookie Beatdown

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov because he believes the wrestling will be a factor and that Barcelos has trouble creating pace when his opponent succeeds with volume. He notes that Nurmagomedov's variety and pace could overwhelm Barcelos, who struggles to match high output. Zane also points out that Barcelos has failed when his wrestling game isn't working, while Nurmagomedov hasn't been tested in that way. He acknowledges the risk but leans on the 'prove it' side.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Zane thinks the odds are absurd but still picks Nurmagomedov.

"I am going to settle on as I usually do the the prove it side where I'm just like I don't yet have any reason to think like the other thing here is that I wouldn't have picked a single …"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Trevin Jones

Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos	1	73 of 119	61%	119 of 171	2 of 5	40%	0	0	7:07
Trevin Jones	0	11 of 57	19%	15 of 61	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Raoni Barcelos	0	14 of 23	60%	33 of 43	1 of 3	33%	2:10
1	Trevin Jones	0	4 of 18	22%	5 of 19	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Raoni Barcelos	1	24 of 40	60%	38 of 59	0 of 1	0%	3:04
2	Trevin Jones	0	2 of 12	16%	3 of 13	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Raoni Barcelos	0	35 of 56	62%	48 of 69	1 of 1	100%	1:53
3	Trevin Jones	0	5 of 27	18%	7 of 29	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raoni Barcelos	73 of 119	61%	51 of 95	19 of 21	3 of 3	39 of 75	2 of 3	32 of 41
Trevin Jones	11 of 57	19%	5 of 47	3 of 7	3 of 3	11 of 56	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raoni Barcelos	14 of 23	60%	8 of 16	6 of 7	0 of 0	7 of 15	1 of 2	6 of 6
1	Trevin Jones	4 of 18	22%	1 of 12	0 of 3	3 of 3	4 of 17	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	24 of 40	60%	18 of 34	4 of 4	2 of 2	10 of 19	0 of 0	14 of 21
2	Trevin Jones	2 of 12	16%	1 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Raoni Barcelos	35 of 56	62%	25 of 45	9 of 10	1 of 1	22 of 41	1 of 1	12 of 14
3	Trevin Jones	5 of 27	18%	3 of 24	2 of 3	0 of 0	5 of 27	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Trevin Jones

Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot features two men that could really use a win to turn things around. Both Barcelos (16-3, 5-2 UFC) and Jones (13-8, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) have lost two fights in a row, which means that one man’s losing streak will be coming to an end in the next 15 minutes. The bantamweights calmly walk forward without touching gloves in front of referee Keith Peterson, and there are no fans in the building nor is there any nonsense. It takes 20 seconds for either fighter to engage, with a head kick coming from the Brazilian to lead things off. Jones responds with a swinging punch, and Barcelos is quicker with a few short strikes. Jones kicks low, and the two feint and fake at one another until a front kick from Barcelos impacts on the body. Another head kick gets blocked by Jones, and Barcelos spams a third to end up hitting air. Barcelos charges in forward for a takedown, and Jones gets pushed into the wall but ultimately prevents himself from getting grounded. Barcelos releases him and resets, and he unloads a pounding kick to the ribcage. Jones looks for his own kick, and it goes on the outside of the Brazilian’s lead leg. Dueling front kicks come from the bantamweights, with Barcelos the one that lands. Jones chips at the lead calf with his shin, and he ducks into a crisp right hook. Barcelos lets a head kick fly, and Jones is able to block it in the nick of time. Jones comes out throwing haymakers, but Barcelos’ high guard defends against the strikes and allows him to clip Jones with a left. Barcelos moves to take things down, and as soon as they hit the mat, Jones scrambles and gets to his knees. Barcelos fishes for a choke with his right arm around the neck, but he lets it go to slug Jones in the face and lower Jones to the ground. Barcelos, in half guard, works the side with punches as he softens Jones up and tries to pass guard as the same time. The Brazilian succeeds in passing to full mount, and he presses his forearm on the throat in the form of an Ezekiel choke that makes Jones twist and buck to protect his neck. Barcelos sits up and slashes down with elbows, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 2
Like the previous round, the two are cautious to engage with much to start the second round. Jones waits with his left hand cocked back, while Barcelos jabs with a few kicks. When Jones reaches out with a right hand, Barcelos loops his own hook around the high guard and dings Jones cleanly. Barcelos swarms him with three punches, and he leaps in the air with a knee that bounces off Jones’ dome. Barcelos lands and pushes Jones back to the wire, but there is no takedown to be had, so he scores a right hand on the break. Jones backs away when a right bears down on him, but he is not keeping Barcelos honest with his own offense. Barcelos strings several kicks together to the leg and body, and a head kick follows suit. Barcelos unloads with a huge right hand from up close, and “5 Star” crumbles to the floor. Barcelos swarms him and arcs down some elbows, while Jones clings to his man so that he does not get pounded out. The Brazilian manages to land a few more elbows before standing up, and he leaps down to get in a better position. As Jones scrambles, he gives up his neck, and Barcelos grabs a guillotine choke. The submission is used to push Jones down to his knees, and he considers a rear-naked choke while hanging on from above. Jones turns around to protect his neck, and as he does, Barcelos rains down several elbows. Multiple unanswered right hands slam into the face of Jones, and the strikes have opened a cut up on the scalp of Jones. The Guam native throws his legs up for a high guard into a triangle, but Barcelos ignores it so that he can beat down Jones with vicious elbows. Before Barcelos can get the finish, Jones is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos

Round 3
Barcelos is amped up to start off the final frame, and he cuts Jones off and tags him with a left hand. Jones fires back with a kick, but Barcelos is able to intercept him with a huge right hook. Jones reels and gathers his thoughts to launch a broad uppercut, and the Brazilian shifts his head just enough to avoid the blow. Barcelos leaps forward into a left hand, and Jones tries to roll with it but still takes the brunt of it flush. Jones gets his bearings back and walks into a left hand, and he tries to connect with a right hand but gets cracked with a pair of punches that buckle his knees. Jones desperately shoots for a takedown, and the Brazilian stuffs it and pushes him back to the wall. A pair of powerful right hands to the body bend Jones over, but Jones otherwise defends the remainder of Barcelos’ assault until Barcelos backs off. Jones sticks a left high, and the two punches he fires off after whiz past Barcelos’ head. A loud right hand to the body forces Jones to double over again, and Barcelos lets him get his steam back. Barcelos counters a looping left hand with a knee up the middle, and it collides square into the cup. Peterson halts the action immediately, but Jones only needs 20 seconds to catch his breath before he signals he is good to go. When they resume, Barcelos shoots in for a takedown, and he lands in full mount position. Jones hand-fights to protect himself from the oncoming strikes, and when Barcelos breaks the grip, he settles for wrapping his arms around Barcelos’ waist. Barcelos postures up and delivers a little ground-and-pound, and he moves from side control to the other side as he rains down brutal elbows. The elbow barrage continues while Jones shifts and attempts to stand up, and Barcelos does everything he can to go home early. The stoppage does not materialize as Jones keeps moving enough to show he is still intelligently defending himself, and he reaches the final bell in what may be a moral victory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Trevin Jones via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Trevin Jones

Cody picks Trevin Jones by knockout, noting that Jones hits hard and Barcelos has been taking a lot of damage recently. He expects Barcelos to be winning the minutes until he gets caught. He is tempted by the +575 knockout prop but is not as confident as his Trinaldo bet. He suggests playing the moneyline instead of the prop to avoid a decision loss.

Jones by KO +575; may sprinkle on KO prop

"I'll pick Trevin Jones for the purposes of this show don't know if I'm gonna bet it not as confident as Grandpa t"

Bookie Beatdown

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Paul picks Raoni Barcelos by unanimous decision, expecting him to outwork Trevin Jones with higher output, better footwork, and superior hand combinations. He acknowledges Barcelos has slowed down slightly but believes his technical boxing and well-rounded game will be enough to win rounds. He notes Jones has power but low volume, and Barcelos has never been knocked down, so a decision is likely.

"I'm taking another shot with round the thing is I normally play around you very high and now obviously I have to taper off my expectations"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, believing he is the more consistent and skilled fighter. He notes that Barcelos looks like his old self when allowed to fight at his own pace, and Trevin Jones lacks the volume and pressure to exploit Barcelos's cardio issues. He thinks Barcelos will win a clear decision, as Jones is sloppy and gets backed up easily. He includes Barcelos in his parlay and calls him a favorite double-up.

included in parlay with Castaneda and Brown

"I think Raoni wins a pretty clear-cut decision on this one."

THE MMA GURU

View all 15 fights

Chris Gutierrez - Fight History

LOSS vs Farid Basharat

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Chris Gutierrez	0	31 of 86	36%	61 of 119	1 of 1	100%	0	1	0:42
Farid Basharat	0	41 of 110	37%	56 of 126	2 of 2	100%	0	0	3:27

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Chris Gutierrez	3 of 7	42%	27 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Farid Basharat	9 of 24	37%	23 of 39	1 of 1	100%	0	2:39
2	Chris Gutierrez	9 of 33	27%	11 of 35	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Farid Basharat	20 of 48	41%	21 of 49	0 of 0	---	0	0:13
3	Chris Gutierrez	19 of 46	41%	23 of 52	1 of 1	100%	1	0:42
3	Farid Basharat	12 of 38	31%	12 of 38	1 of 1	100%	0	0:35

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Chris Gutierrez	31 of 86	36%	18 of 63	0 of 3	13 of 20	30 of 85	0 of 0	1 of 1
Farid Basharat	41 of 110	37%	19 of 75	5 of 11	17 of 24	39 of 104	0 of 0	2 of 6

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Chris Gutierrez	3 of 7	42%	1 of 2	0 of 1	2 of 4	3 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Farid Basharat	9 of 24	37%	2 of 9	0 of 3	7 of 12	7 of 20	0 of 0	2 of 4
2	Chris Gutierrez	9 of 33	27%	2 of 20	0 of 2	7 of 11	9 of 33	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Farid Basharat	20 of 48	41%	11 of 36	3 of 4	6 of 8	20 of 48	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Chris Gutierrez	19 of 46	41%	15 of 41	0 of 0	4 of 5	18 of 45	0 of 0	1 of 1
3	Farid Basharat	12 of 38	31%	6 of 30	2 of 4	4 of 4	12 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 2

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Farid Basharat vs. Chris Gutierrez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-440), Gutierrez (+340)

Round 1
Two bantamweights on the way up will meet in a bout shifted down to the early prelims for some reason, even though the victor may have a number next to their name on Monday. Gutierrez (22-6-2, 10-3-1 UFC) will likely be fighting behind his many kicks, while “Ferocious” Basharat (13-0, 4-0 UFC) has yet to taste defeat in the cage. Referee Herb Dean will take care of business, and the fighters gladly bump fists before engaging.
What results early on is a whole lot of shadowboxing, feinting and faking to find their respective range. The first strike committed to is a spinning back kick from Basharat about 90 seconds in, and Gutierrez pays it no mind and keeps raising his leg up to serve as a shield. Basharat kicks his way into a takedown shot, and his double-leg entry succeeds in bringing Gutierrez to the floor.
Basharat gets busier than the few athletes from earlier tonight that have taken the fight down, but it does not take long for Gutierrez to shut him down from much more. Basharat postures up and drives down a right hand, and it is one-and-done as he gets swallowed up in the guard. Gutierrez maintains a high guard, it seemingly active enough to stave off much offense. Basharat scores another ground strike or two, but he is much more interested getting to half guard. The upkicks from Gutierrez allow him to push Basharat off of him, only for the man born in Afghanistan to climb back on top and ride out the slow round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
Basharat runs out of his corner but stops right in the center of the cage, not willing to go much further ahead. This allows Gutierrez to lobby kicks at him, although Basharat’s punches that he sits down on are much more effective. Gutierrez fakes spins to draw Basharat off-guard, and he punches through the raised hands to scores a straight left. Gutierrez chips at the lead leg from his preferred range of distance kickboxing, and Basharat meets him with one or two back before swinging with a big left and a high kick on the other side to get the American’s attention. Gutierrez blocks a wide overhand right and kicks the lead wheel again, with Basharat offering back a hefty body kick.
Basharat splits the guard with a huge one-two that staggers Gutierrez, and he backs off to celebrate his success. Basharat hurls looping strikes, and a front kick surprises the kickfighter. Gutierrez replies with a spin kick to the ribs, and Basharat gathers his thoughts and sits down on a power right hand. Basharat ties them up against the fencing, and Gutierrez separates without much issue. Gutierrez fakes to spin a few times, and Basharat leaps at him with a jump knee that does not find the mark. A Rolling Thunder kick from Basharat punctuates the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the middle, and Basharat strikes first with a calf kick. Gutierrez hammers him back with a low kick and a combo of punches, and he gets Basharat’s attention. The pressure from the American has surprised Basharat, who is on his heels and on the verge of being taken down. Gutierrez wrenches his man down to the floor, and holds him down from behind without tossing much. Basharat powers back to his feet and throws everything he has into a monster left and right, and Gutierrez dances out of the way without absorbing anything. Basharat pitches a left hand around the guard, and he just misses a spin kick. Basharat’s one-two skims off his intended target, and his spin without a kick just makes him twirl around aimlessly. Gutierrez scoops in a heavy left hook, but it is a single strike and what follows are feints.
Basharat drops to his knees and commits to a picture-perfect explosive double, scooping Gutierrez up and slamming him down to his back. Gutierrez gives his back up standing, and he shimmies Basharat off of him to put the Brit on his back now. Basharat scrambles to his knees and dives for a single-leg takedown, and Gutierrez lets him up and pushes off to fake spin weakly with a back fist. Basharat tries to keep him at bay with a push kick, and he takes a left hand and fires off a body kick that glances the cup. Gutierrez adjusts his athletic supporter and just manages to block a spinning wheel kick, and he crashes the pocket for two punches. Gutierrez reaches his foe with a spinning back fist, and his front kick after it appears much more effective. They both swing for big hooks and crash into one another, and a Gutierrez spin goes wide. Gutierrez knocks Basharat off his feet with a shovel right hand as seconds remain on the clock, and time expires before he can do anything with his opponent on his back.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez (29-28 Basharat)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez (29-28 Basharat)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez (29-28 Basharat)

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Chris Gutierrez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Farid Basharat

Angelo sees Farid Basharat as the better fighter everywhere, with underrated striking and very good wrestling. He notes Chris Gutierrez has wrestling holes, having been taken down seven times in his last four fights. He thinks Farid's takedown defense and movement will be key, and that Gutierrez's leg kicks might not be enough to slow him down. He considers the 4-to-1 odds appropriate.

"Fared is an underrated striker, a very good wrestler. I think he can beat Chris Gutierrez everywhere. I think he likely wins this fight."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Farid Basharat

Big Brady is very confident in Farid Basharat, calling him a massive favorite at -450. He criticizes Chris Gutierrez as a boring fighter who relies on leg kicks and has poor takedown defense and get-up game. He notes that Gutierrez has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and Basharat has a massive advantage in wrestling and grappling. He predicts Basharat wins by decision.

"Give me Farid Bosat. I think he wins this fight by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Farid Basharat

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Basharat because Gutierrez has shown he cannot handle persistent pressure, as in the Pedro Munhoz fight. He notes that Basharat's real skill is taking openings given to him, using strikes to set up takedowns, and that Gutierrez's frustration will mount. However, he cautions that Basharat has never applied the relentless pressure of Munhoz and may need to adjust to Gutierrez's frustrating style.

Basharat opened at -600, currently -450; Gutierrez opened at +450, currently +350. Connor comments: 'Basra, way too big a favorite here. This is a much more difficult test than most he's faced to this point.'

"I think Basra is going to go out there and pressure and wrestle him... I think Basra is that's exactly what he wants to do."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)

Farid Basharat

Basharat's grinding game is expected to be effective against Gutierrez, who is a fish off his back. The host expects Basharat to be competitive in striking and mix in wrestling for a decision victory.

"I believe this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Basharat to go out there and get to his grinding game as most opponents have struggled to deal with it. Specifically, Gutierrez, who is a fish off his back."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Farid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat, citing his offensive grappling and mixing of strikes. He notes Chris Gutierrez's vulnerability to takedowns and lack of finishing ability. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to go with Farid Basharat getting this one done by 29-28 decision."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Farid Basharat

Zane picks Basharat because he believes Basharat's pressure and wrestling will break Gutierrez, who has a history of emotional breakdowns when fights get difficult, as seen against Pedro Munhoz. He notes that Basharat's game allows for connective pressure, and even if Gutierrez frustrates him early, Basharat's versatility will eventually overwhelm Gutierrez's neutralization game.

Basharat opened at -600, currently -450; Gutierrez opened at +450, currently +350. Zane comments: 'Basra, way too big a favorite here. This is a much more difficult test than most he's faced to this point.'

"I think Basra is going to go out there and pressure and wrestle him... I think Basra is that's exactly what he wants to do."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs John Castañeda

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Chris Gutierrez	1	46 of 85	54%	65 of 112	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:39
John Castañeda	0	41 of 77	53%	76 of 118	1 of 1	100%	0	0	4:50

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Chris Gutierrez	1	9 of 16	56%	19 of 29	0 of 0	---	0:37
1	John Castañeda	0	6 of 17	35%	17 of 29	0 of 0	---	1:58
2	Chris Gutierrez	0	29 of 50	58%	29 of 50	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	John Castañeda	0	23 of 43	53%	23 of 43	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Chris Gutierrez	0	8 of 19	42%	17 of 33	0 of 1	0%	0:02
3	John Castañeda	0	12 of 17	70%	36 of 46	1 of 1	100%	2:52

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Chris Gutierrez	46 of 85	54%	20 of 50	5 of 9	21 of 26	44 of 81	0 of 1	2 of 3
John Castañeda	41 of 77	53%	16 of 34	8 of 13	17 of 30	36 of 71	5 of 6	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Chris Gutierrez	9 of 16	56%	4 of 9	1 of 1	4 of 6	7 of 13	0 of 0	2 of 3
1	John Castañeda	6 of 17	35%	1 of 3	1 of 3	4 of 11	6 of 17	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Chris Gutierrez	29 of 50	58%	11 of 25	3 of 7	15 of 18	29 of 50	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	John Castañeda	23 of 43	53%	13 of 26	4 of 6	6 of 11	22 of 41	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Chris Gutierrez	8 of 19	42%	5 of 16	1 of 1	2 of 2	8 of 18	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	John Castañeda	12 of 17	70%	2 of 5	3 of 4	7 of 8	8 of 13	4 of 4	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

John Castaneda vs. Chris Gutierrez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gutierrez (-130), Castaneda (+110)

Round 1
Both fighters normally bantamweights, the short-notice nature of this rescheduled tilt shifted it up 10 pounds to featherweight. It was originally scheduled for UFC 313, only to fall through on Fight Night when Castaneda (21-7, 4-3 UFC) suffered a fight-scratching illness. Ready to finally get in there, Gutierrez (21-6-2, 9-3-1 UFC) as his shins sharpened and ready for combat. Joining the two fighters in the cage will be referee Keith Peterson, who reaches the cage after bouncing nonsense from the premises. They clap hands, and Gutierrez comes out throwing kicks from both legs. Castaneda backs off all the way to the fence, moving side to side to not present a stationary target. Castaneda attempts his own low kick, aiming a second on the inside when the first succeeds. Gutierrez rips the inner thigh back with a kick, and Castaneda switches stances briefly. Gutierrez slips a punch and works the front calf, and he parries three of four punches but gets caught with the fourth on the nose. Gutierrez’ kicks keep Castaneda moving, who is constantly trying not to get nailed with a head kick, a spin kick or something else fired his way. Gutierrez steps in, tosses a kick to the ribs and trips. Castaneda’s eyes light up, as he jumps down to claim top position uncontested. Castanada steps into half guard, flattening Gutierrez out while exerting his body weight down. The audience does not love the relative inaction with the wrestling, audibly letting the fighters know of this. Gutierrez gets some space using butterfly hooks to push off the hips, and he grabs one of Castaneda’s ankles while searching for upkicks. Gutierrez decides to just stand up, and Castaneda seemingly lets him back up without issue. Gutierrez thanks him for this with a straight right hand down the pipe, sending “Sexi Mexi” to the ground in a heap. As Castaneda lays on his side defending himself, time expires before Gutierrez can get the finish he was seeking.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to re-engage, and Castaneda swings with everything he has into a reintroductory right hand. Gutierrez needs a moment to recover, and he gathers his thoughts and lets loose with a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark. Gutierrez kicks his foe so hard in the front leg, he puts Castaneda on his seat. Castaneda climbs back up, directly into a crippling low kick that makes him limp almost immediately. Gutierrez sells out for a big punch, and Castaneda meets him with his own at the same time. Castaneda strikes the body and head, circling away before Gutierrez can get to him. Castaneda goes wide with a wheel kick, and when he lands, he reaches out with a long left hand. Castaneda chips at the front leg with a kick, and Gutierrez actually shoves him away rather than striking him. Gutierrez pump-fakes a spin, and he checks a kick and has his guard up to prevent Castaneda from getting off on him. Gutierrez sneaks out a left hand, and he again fakes a spin. Castaneda does not bite and instead loads up on a right hand, and Gutierrez frowns at him. Castaneda gives chase, walking through kicks to his lead leg and a few punches. The two proceed to trade it out from close range, and Gutierrez slams his shin on the inside of his foe’s lead leg to give him brief pause. Gutierrez kicks the outside of the leg, and Castaneda responds in kind. Gutierrez probes out with a jab and a step-in knee, and Castaneda has to shake out the cobwebs but is forced to deal with jabs and leg kicks when doing so. They both land straight punches at the same time, and Gutierrez shoots for a single-leg takedown suddenly. Castaneda grins at him and hammers him with two heavy hooks, and Gutierrez is quick to abandon the shot. Castaneda goes high with two kicks that are blocked, and Gutierrez bloodies his nose up with a right hand at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez

Round 3
The fighters are so amped up to get going again, Peterson has to tell them to back off before he says go. When he does, they do not hang back, and instead engage with one another in close range. Both men land cleanly on one another, and Gutierrez has to back off and disengage rather than keep letting hands fly. Castaneda’s wheel kick effort bounces harmless off the guard, but when he plants his leg, he is able to score three low kicks in rapid succession. Gutierrez flicks out a few jabs, and Castaneda kicks him once more. Gutierrez punches his way into a clinch, and he abandons the level change when the leverage is not right. Castaneda slings a kick to the body, and Gutierrez comes out swinging and misses the mark. This allows Castaneda to grip hold of his foe and push him against the fencing, all while looking for a trip. Castaneda elects to lift Gutierrez all the way in the air, slamming him down on his back hard. Castaneda smothers his foe on top, moving to side control to not let Gutierrez go anywhere. Gutierrez tries to scramble, and Castaneda responds with a guillotine choke with one arm while using his body weight to press on him. Castaneda lets it go and lands a few punches, and Gutierrez drags him back to the closed guard. As Gutierrez fights off the grappling and pushes off, Castaneda kicks him in the legs a few times when his foe stands. The horn sounds, and the fight is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda (29-28 Gutierrez)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda (29-28 Castaneda)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda (29-28 Gutierrez)

The Official Result
Chris Gutierrez def. John Castaneda via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)

John Castañeda

Angelo picks John Castañeda, believing his pressure wrestling will neutralize Chris Gutierrez's leg kicks. He notes that Gutierrez was taken down by Quang Le and that Castañeda's Division 2 wrestling and forward pressure will keep the fight in close range, preventing Gutierrez from planting and kicking. He is waiting for better plus money odds.

Waiting for odds to improve; may bet at +125 or +130

"John Castanada is the pick and a lot of that has to do with just the pressure."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Chris Gutierrez

Big Brady leans toward Chris Gutierrez, citing his leg kicks and better striking, but expects a close fight typical of Gutierrez. He notes Gutierrez often wins on thin margins and predicts a competitive decision. He expresses low interest in the fight and mentions the line at -140 makes sense.

"Give me Chris Gutierrez by a competitive decision. The line at -140 makes a ton of sense to me."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Chris Gutierrez

The host expects Gutierrez to stop takedowns, use calf kicks to slow Castañeda, and then land hands when Castañeda blitzes recklessly, leading to a decision win.

"Look for Gutierrez to touch him up and give us a classic Gutierrez performance, winning this fight on the scorecards."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Chris Gutierrez

The MMA Guru picks Chris Gutierrez, but with hesitation. He likes Gutierrez's low kicks and movement, and notes Castañeda's lack of urgency and flat-footedness. However, he questions Gutierrez's ability to dominate and expects a very close decision. He mentions the big cage favors Gutierrez's movement.

"I think Gutierrez is going to win a very close decision, a very very close decision over John Castanada."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Quang Le

DEC R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024

LOSS vs Song Yadong

DEC R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Yadong Song vs. Chris Gutierrez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Song (-380), Gutierrez (+300)

Round 1
All hands are on deck for what should be action-packed headliner at 135 pounds. The winner should position himself closer to the top of the landscape at bantamweight, although a logjam of title suitors still sits in front of them. Whether they need one more win or five to get to the top of the mountain, Song (20-7-1, 1 NC; 9-2-1 UFC) and Gutierrez (20-5-2, 8-2-1 UFC) are ready to take that next step by going through the other. Striking totals and the power behind them will likely be high, so referee Herb Dean is on high alert for the next 25 minutes or less. When they are brought together, they touch gloves to signal there is no ill will for one another. Gutierrez paws out low kicks more as range-finders than as actual scoring strikes, and Song lunges at him and nods when a fist glances off the side of Gutierrez’ head. Gutierrez suddenly spins with a kick, and Song is well out of harm’s way. Gutierrez flicks a head kick at his foe, and Song is able to block it without concern and sweep the leg in response. Gutierrez prods out with low kicks on both sides of the leg of his opponent, and Song prepares a counter but does not release it when seeing Gutierrez is not committing to the strikes. Gutierrez dips out of the way of a spinning back fist that whizzes past him, and they trade low kicks. Gutierrez uses his kicks as distance-keeping weapons, not putting much into some of them and simply tossing them out to keep Song from closing in recklessly. Song peppers Gutierrez with leg kicks, and Gutierrez lands a few stomp kicks on the knee back. Gutierrez fakes a spin, and then sells out and spins with a fist that rebounds off the gloves. Song slams his shin on the lead leg of “El Guapo,” and he leaps forward with two hooks. The leg kicks prompt a stance switch, and when Gutierrez scores a left hand, Song smiles at him and shrugs. Song then lunges ahead, missing with a punch, but they both drive leg kicks home. Gutierrez kicks the body, and Song waves him on, asking for more. “Kung Fu Kid” races ahead, but he misses with strikes as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
When the second round begins, the two kick and kick and kick. They trade kicks to the lead leg, Song goes high, and Gutierrez emulates him with one of his own. Gutierrez plants the ball of his foot on Song’s face, and Song grins and laughs it off. Song lashes out, and when he misses, Gutierrez spins with a back fist and partially catches him with it. Gutierrez looks for a second front kick, and Song picks up on it but only partially. Gutierrez chips away with low kicks, and he checks one that comes back at him. Song reaches him with three punches, getting off at the end of one, and Gutierrez bounces away and picks and pokes with low kicks. Song looks to split the guard with a right hand, and Gutierrez kicks his leg out and sends him careening off-balance when Song spins. Gutierrez kicks the lead leg and backs away from a counter, and he pokes out with a front kick. Song tries to crowd him, and Gutierrez parries and evades the blows. Song connects with a few low kicks, and Gutierrez pushes off his face and pokes Song in both eyes. Dean calls time and tells Gutierrez to stop leading with his fingers, and he allows Song to recover. Song tries to hurry back, and Dean gives him more time, but Song wants to fight so they resume after about 45 seconds off. Gutierrez starts up again with his front leg raised, and he chambers and fires it at his foe. Gutierrez circles away from the oncoming offense, avoiding any of the power punches and getting off his own strikes. Song rushes forward, practically tackling Gutierrez to the ground. Gutierrez sets up butterfly hooks to try to sweep his foe from China, and he kicks off Song’s hips but cannot lift him off. Song slowly works with occasional strikes, and Gutierrez looks to throw his legs up with a high guard or something more. Song keeps Gutierrez pressed against the fence, until Dean calls time and issues a hard warning to Gutierrez for grabbing Song’s gloves. Dean resets them in position, and Song rides out the round on top landing right hands.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 3
The two bantamweights touch ‘em up before opening the third round, and kicks are the first item on the menu. Song fires off a high kick, and he shoots in for a takedown. Gutierrez defends it, but he gets popped on the way out with a right hook. Gutierrez lands a front kick, and Song outstretches his hand and a finger jams deep into Gutierrez’ eye socket. Dean pauses the fight and allows Gutierrez to recover. Gutierrez takes 90 seconds and a hand wipe before he is good to go, and they resume. Gutierrez pushes out several front kicks with both legs, interrupting Song’s movement and combinations. Song reaches him with a left hand, and ducks back as Gutierrez spins with a wheel kick. The leg kicks land one after the other for both men, and Gutierrez raises his guard at the right moment to block a left hook that blazes at him. Song sticks out a jab, and Gutierrez answers him with a right hook. Gutierrez kicks the knee and fakes with spins, and the two crash together without landing of note. Gutierrez snaps up a question mark kick that Song mostly defends, and Song tries to make him pay but Gutierrez is well out of the way. Song delivers a stern leg kick that lands with an audible thud, and he tosses up his other leg to Gutierrez’ face—Gutierrez protects himself from it. Gutierrez drops low to change levels, drawing a huge reaction out of Song. Gutierrez fakes another takedown to again make Song think about defending, and he goes up high with a right hand. Gutierrez jabs the lead leg with his own leg, and he gets cornered by the Chinese fighter and skirts away after eating a three-punch serving. Song reaches Gutierrez with a left, and he clubs him with a right before Gutierrez escapes. Song takes a knee up the middle while throwing hands, and he takes a straight right hand after landing a few strikes. Gutierrez slides to the side to let a spinning wheel kick land on his shoulder, and he throws a high kick in response. Song catches it and dumps him to the mat with seconds to go, and Song does not do anything with it as the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 4
The bantamweights reach the championship rounds, and feet are in play before fists. Gutierrez blocks a head kick and takes two low kicks, and he connects with a clean front kick up the middle. Song tries to chase him down and corner him, but it ends with him falling over. Gutierrez spins with a back fist, and when that misses, Song belts him with a huge right hand that shocks him and sends him crashing down to the floor. Song jumps on top, but Gutierrez closes his guard and stifles any further offense from getting through. Gutierrez recovers, as Song resides on top of him without worry. Gutierrez slaps Song on the side of the head as he stays stuck on his back, and Song occasionally gets in a few strikes to keep Dean from standing them up. Song stacks Gutierrez up any time Gutierrez tries to do some finagling of his guard, and Gutierrez claims several strikes land to the back of his head. The strikes from Song, methodical and effective, open up a cut on Gutierrez’ left eyebrow. Song grinds the remainder of the round out, and Gutierrez is extremely frustrated.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 5
Reaching the last rounds, the two men come together but do not engage quite as quickly as they did before. Gutierrez keeps his range, until out of nowhere he attempts an Imanari roll for a leglock. This is a poor decision, as Song completely bowls him over and gets right back to the position where he ended the last frame. Song has no qualms about smacking Gutierrez around with short punches and a few elbows, all while precious time ticks off the clock for the underdog Gutierrez. Song postures up every so often to hammer down an elbow, and Gutierrez scoots himself back to the wall to try to lean off of it and get up. Song drags him back down and drives home a number of elbows, until Gutierrez desperately turns and pushes his legs off the fencing. Dean warns him for hooking his toes in the fence, and Song celebrates this moment of confusing by punching Gutierrez in the face. With 30 seconds left in the fight, Song opens up with a stream of left hands and hammerfists as he holds Gutierrez in an awkward position. Gutierrez looks for a low-percentage leglock that allows him to get bludgeoned a few more times, and the long five-round engagement comes to a close. There is just one more UFC event in 2023, and it may be one to remember with two title fights and plenty of action fights booked. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song (49-46 Song)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song (50-45 Song)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song (50-45 Song)

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Chris Gutierrez via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)

WIN vs Alateng Heili

DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023

LOSS vs Pedro Munhoz

DEC R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Chris Gutierrez

Connor picks Gutierrez, agreeing that Munhoz has lost his edge since moving to American Top Team. He notes that Munhoz's old Kings MMA style of relentless pressure is gone, replaced by a more tentative approach. Connor believes Gutierrez's consistent output and target selection will outwork Munhoz, who has become too passive and reliant on a jab and footwork that don't suit his natural aggression.

"I think Gutierrez is way too consistent and again not picky about the targets that he accepts at that range."

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Chris Gutierrez

Zane picks Gutierrez, highlighting his improvement and confidence versus Munhoz's decline. He notes that Munhoz has lost his aggressive, four-limbed attack and become more technical but less effective. Zane believes Gutierrez's volume, kicking game, and ability to attack all targets will overwhelm Munhoz, who has poor defensive footwork and has been vulnerable to leg kicks historically.

Gutierrez opened -230, now -195; Munhoz opened +200, now +173. Zane does not mention betting.

"I kind of just think Gutierrez is going to be too much for him to handle."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Frankie Edgar

KO/TKO R1 2:01 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022

WIN vs Danaa Batgerel

KO/TKO R2 2:34 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022

View all 15 fights

Raoni Barcelos

Chris Gutierrez

Career Averages - Raoni Barcelos

Career Averages - Chris Gutierrez

Raoni Barcelos - Fight History

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Chris Gutierrez - Fight History

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