Career Averages - Randa Markos
Career Averages - Carla Esparza
Randa Markos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 51 of 71 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 65 of 96 | 67% | 159 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 8:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 24 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:10 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 17 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 50 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:00 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 69 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 11 of 27 | 40% | 7 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Livinha Souza | 65 of 96 | 67% | 55 of 85 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 55 | 20 of 25 | 16 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Livinha Souza | 21 of 36 | 58% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 23 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Livinha Souza | 12 of 16 | 75% | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 6 of 16 | 37% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Livinha Souza | 32 of 44 | 72% | 30 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 27 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 |
Angelo sees this as a tough fight between two similar fighters. He notes that Souza likely has a striking advantage while Randa has the grappling edge, but neither is good off their back. He ultimately sides with Souza because he thinks she can be the bully and get on top, but he's not confident and won't bet on her at -300.
Big Brady leans toward Souza despite her poor performance against Amanda Lemos, citing Souza's takedown ability and Randa Markos's 52% takedown defense. He expects the fight to play out on the mat where Souza can control and win a decision. However, he admits low confidence due to both fighters' low level and recommends no bet on this fight.
Cody leans towards Randa Markos as an underdog. He notes that Souza has looked awful in the UFC, quitting in her last fight, while Markos has fought only top competition and never quits. Cody believes Markos's grinding style and durability will be too much for Souza, who seems to lack heart. He sees this as a dogger pass and takes the underdog.
Lock picks Markos based on volume and activity. He notes Souza has poor striking output and Markos will outwork her. He expects Markos to win by decision, as she is unlikely to finish. He acknowledges Markos' low fight IQ but thinks she can win.
Paul does not make a pick, asking for Cody's blessing before betting. He notes that Souza has burned him before and that Markos's style may not be favored by judges. Paul seems uncertain and does not commit.
The MMA Guru picks Livinha Souza, arguing that she is undervalued due to her looks. He highlights her tough competition and believes Randa Markos has lost motivation. He predicts Souza will win by unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 35 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 35 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Pinheiro | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Randa Markos | 29 of 53 | 54% | 22 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Pinheiro | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Randa Markos | 29 of 53 | 54% | 22 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 8 |
Big Brady picks Luana Pinheiro to win by decision, but expresses hesitation about betting on Contender Series fighters, especially in women's MMA. He likes Pinheiro's aggression, power, and ability to take the fight down, noting Markos's poor takedown defense. However, he acknowledges that Contender Series favorites often fail to cover the price tag. He ultimately picks Pinheiro but says he won't bet on it.
Cody thinks Pinheiro is a strong prospect with hands and a judo background, training at ATT with her boyfriend Matheus Nicolau. He notes that Randa Markos has lost three in a row and seems to be on a downswing, possibly thinking about retirement. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos in many areas and that -170 is a fair price. However, he has low confidence due to the unpredictability of women's MMA and the veteran vs. debutant dynamic.
Daniel Levi picks Luana Pinheiro to win, citing her finishing ability and jiu-jitsu credentials. He acknowledges the risk of a debut egg but believes Randa Markos is declining mentally and physically. Levi notes that Pinheiro's path to victory is takedowns and top control, as Markos has been dominated on the ground recently.
The host picks Randa Markos as an underdog, citing her experience and durability. He questions Pinheiro's cardio since all her wins are first-round finishes on the regional scene. He expects Markos to take the fight into deeper waters and grind out a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Markos has seen better days and is on a losing streak. He points out that Markos has never won back-to-back fights in the UFC and is getting older. He thinks Pinheiro is a natural finisher with good grappling and striking, and that she looks strong for 115 pounds. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos' telegraphing and suspect wrestling. He agrees that -170 is fair but has low confidence due to the level of competition.
The MMA Guru picks Luana Pinheiro over Randa Markos, expressing frustration with Markos' poor decision-making and lack of effort. He highlights Pinheiro's power and finishing ability, noting she has first-round finishes in her recent fights. He predicts Pinheiro will win by first-round finish, either by submission or KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 79 of 95 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 9:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kanako Murata | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 36 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | |
| 2 | Kanako Murata | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 | |
| 3 | Kanako Murata | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 23 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanako Murata | 29 of 61 | 47% | 12 of 36 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 13 | 19 of 50 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Randa Markos | 29 of 43 | 67% | 24 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 17 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kanako Murata | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 15 of 20 | 75% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 13 | |
| 2 | Kanako Murata | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 8 of 15 | 53% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Kanako Murata | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Randa Markos | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Murata due to her wrestling pedigree and top control, though he is wary of Markos' submission threat from guard. He notes Markos' poor fight IQ and takedown defense. He expects Murata to win a decision but is not betting due to the sketchy vibe.
Daniel slightly leans with Murata, noting her disciplined game plan, strength, forward pressure, and ability to mix in takedowns. He thinks she can edge a decision if she stays disciplined. He acknowledges Markos has shown mental lapses and inconsistency, but warns that Murata is not a lock and the fight could be close. He advises not going crazy at the betting window.
The MMA Guru picks Randa Markos, despite her 10-10 record, because she has fought much better competition than Kanako Murata. He notes that Murata went to a split decision against a girl with an 8-5 record and hasn't beaten anyone notable. He believes Markos will piece up Murata on the feet for three rounds and win a unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 5 | 1 | 1:45 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 5 | 1 | 1:45 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 9 of 13 | 69% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
| Randa Markos | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 9 of 13 | 69% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
| Randa Markos | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Randa Markos, citing Dern's poor wrestling (7% takedown accuracy) and striking. He believes the fight will stay on the feet where Markos is the better striker, and Markos has stated she will avoid Dern's strength. He expects a close decision win for Markos.
The host sees this as a 50/50 fight where the winner depends on who imposes their game. He thinks Dern's best path is to get the fight to the ground and use her elite jiu-jitsu for a submission, but he questions her ability to secure takedowns against Markos. He notes Markos has the striking advantage and could outpoint Dern if she keeps it standing. He picks Dern by submission but acknowledges the value is on Markos at +145.
The host picks Mackenzie Dern over Randa Markos, citing Dern's dominant performance against Hannah Cifers and her youth. He notes Markos's age (35) and many losses to top competition. He predicts a submission win in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 85 of 159 | 53% | 173 of 254 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 7:24 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 36 of 77 | 46% | 56 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 51 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 61 of 105 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 61 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:55 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 85 of 159 | 53% | 57 of 125 | 18 of 24 | 10 of 10 | 45 of 111 | 8 of 9 | 32 of 39 |
| Randa Markos | 36 of 77 | 46% | 22 of 58 | 3 of 7 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 74 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 22 of 41 | 53% | 14 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 13 |
| Randa Markos | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 31 of 74 | 41% | 18 of 56 | 8 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 69 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 23 of 51 | 45% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 22 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 32 of 44 | 72% | 25 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 26 |
| Randa Markos | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel is confident in Ribas, citing her size advantage, superior jiu-jitsu, and judo. He thinks she can take Markos down and submit her or win a dominant decision. He notes Markos is tough but Ribas is on a different talent level.
The host picks Amanda Ribas over Randa Markos. He notes that Markos is dangerous but will be too short in reach and length. Ribas is coming off a win over Mackenzie Dern and will use her reach advantage to jab Markos's face for three rounds. He also mentions Markos's age (34) as a factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 0 | 78 of 140 | 55% | 94 of 158 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:05 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 44 of 107 | 41% | 82 of 148 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 5:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 22 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 0 | 39 of 54 | 72% | 54 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:31 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 41 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 31 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 14 of 55 | 25% | 19 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 78 of 140 | 55% | 58 of 116 | 10 of 13 | 10 of 11 | 42 of 93 | 26 of 33 | 10 of 14 |
| Ashley Yoder | 44 of 107 | 41% | 30 of 84 | 11 of 16 | 3 of 7 | 24 of 80 | 5 of 10 | 15 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 8 of 10 | 80% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ashley Yoder | 11 of 16 | 68% | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 39 of 54 | 72% | 31 of 45 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 22 | 15 of 18 | 10 of 14 |
| Ashley Yoder | 19 of 36 | 52% | 15 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 11 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 31 of 76 | 40% | 23 of 65 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 64 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Ashley Yoder | 14 of 55 | 25% | 8 of 44 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 40 of 107 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 25 of 109 | 22% | 26 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 10 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 7 of 35 | 20% | 8 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 8 of 40 | 20% | 8 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 40 of 107 | 37% | 36 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 37 of 98 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 25 of 109 | 22% | 19 of 99 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 17 of 96 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 12 of 35 | 34% | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 10 of 34 | 29% | 8 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 7 of 35 | 20% | 5 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 18 of 41 | 43% | 15 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 8 of 40 | 20% | 6 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 |
| Angela Hill | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 |
| Angela Hill | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s time for a women’s strawweight bout between Randa Markos and Angela Hill. The official in charge of the action is Keith Peterson. No touch of gloves for this one. Hill with a kick to the body. Markos with a straight right and uses it to get inside and clinch up with Hill. But Hill reverses position and now has Markos up against the fence. Markos lands two knees and then an elbow off the break. She marches forward on Hill, who clinches up with her but Markos whips her to the ground with a body lock takedown. Markos is now working in side control. She moves over into mount and then takes the back of Hill. Markos is looking for the rear-naked choke while also landing punches to the head of Hill. She moves back into mount. Hill tries to buck her off but Markos gets her hooks in and takes the back of Hill.
She switches to an armbar and Hill is in massive trouble now. Hill is doing her best to defend but Markos has a minute to work here. Hill is doing a great job of defending but eventually succumbs to the submission as Markos stretches the arm back and Hill taps to the armbar
.
The Official Result
Randa Markos def. Angela Hill via Submission (Armbar) R1, 4:20
Carla Esparza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 39 of 123 | 31% | 116 of 215 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 80 of 150 | 53% | 94 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 77 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 39 of 123 | 31% | 30 of 112 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 110 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 80 of 150 | 53% | 28 of 92 | 11 of 12 | 41 of 46 | 75 of 142 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 6 of 26 | 23% | 4 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 12 of 43 | 27% | 6 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 31 of 55 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 31 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 36 of 57 | 63% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 30 | 34 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.
Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.
Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.
The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.
Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.
Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 6 of 32 | 18% | 19 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 5 of 27 | 18% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0:53 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 65 | 50% | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 6 of 32 | 18% | 6 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 78 | 47% | 20 of 58 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 24 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 5 of 27 | 18% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 65 | 50% | 19 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.
Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'
The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.
Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 136 | 27% | 38 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 30 of 133 | 22% | 30 of 133 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 31 | 16% | 5 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 136 | 27% | 30 of 122 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 36 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 30 of 133 | 22% | 15 of 108 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 128 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 19 | 21% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 22 | 18% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 11 of 36 | 30% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 9 of 32 | 28% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 6 of 28 | 21% | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 8 of 29 | 27% | 3 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 39 | 33% | 7 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 5 of 31 | 16% | 2 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.
Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.
The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.
Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.
The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 27 of 33 | 81% | 170 of 194 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 24 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 104 of 117 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 66 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 27 of 33 | 81% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 13 of 15 | 86% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 18 | 77% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.
Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.
Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.
The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 118 of 152 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 8:54 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 76 | 52% | 91 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 49 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 32 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 43 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 37 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 60 | 55% | 29 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 43 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 76 | 52% | 34 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 25 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 7 of 19 | 36% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 29 | 48% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 29 | 62% | 15 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.
Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.
Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 48 of 106 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 44 of 98 | 44% | 44 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 45 of 103 | 43% | 34 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 94 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 44 of 98 | 44% | 15 of 60 | 13 of 16 | 16 of 22 | 39 of 92 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 9 of 28 | 32% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 15 of 31 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 13 of 26 | 50% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 25 of 54 | 46% | 18 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 22 of 44 | 50% | 8 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.
Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.
Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 44 of 80 | 55% | 115 of 157 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 7:12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 103 of 169 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 36 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 33 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 56 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:16 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 44 of 80 | 55% | 27 of 60 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 59 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 45 of 103 | 43% | 41 of 97 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 88 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 36 | 50% | 8 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexa Grasso | 17 of 41 | 41% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 18 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
| Alexa Grasso | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 97 of 128 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 5:25 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 64 of 89 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 3:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 26 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 22 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 28 of 40 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 24 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 1:42 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 43 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 25 of 51 | 49% | 18 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 9 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 17 of 37 | 45% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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