UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Feb 19, 2017 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne Next Fight
Age 40
Height 5' 4"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 1"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Randa Markos
2.97 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.1 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.12 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Carla Esparza
2.19 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
2.87 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
3.28 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Randa Markos - Fight History
WIN vs Livinha Souza
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randa Markos 0 11 of 27 40% 51 of 71 3 of 6 50% 2 0 3:31
Livinha Souza 0 65 of 96 67% 159 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 2 8:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randa Markos 0 3 of 7 42% 24 of 29 1 of 3 33% 2 0 1:43
Livinha Souza 0 21 of 36 58% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
2 Randa Markos 0 2 of 4 50% 17 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:31
Livinha Souza 0 12 of 16 75% 50 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:00
3 Randa Markos 0 6 of 16 37% 10 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Livinha Souza 0 32 of 44 72% 69 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randa Markos 11 of 27 40% 7 of 23 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 20 3 of 5 2 of 2
Livinha Souza 65 of 96 67% 55 of 85 7 of 8 3 of 3 29 of 55 20 of 25 16 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randa Markos 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 2 of 3 0 of 0
Livinha Souza 21 of 36 58% 15 of 29 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 23 12 of 13 0 of 0
2 Randa Markos 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1
Livinha Souza 12 of 16 75% 10 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 9
3 Randa Markos 6 of 16 37% 5 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 1
Livinha Souza 32 of 44 72% 30 of 42 1 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 27 6 of 10 7 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Livinha Souza

Angelo sees this as a tough fight between two similar fighters. He notes that Souza likely has a striking advantage while Randa has the grappling edge, but neither is good off their back. He ultimately sides with Souza because he thinks she can be the bully and get on top, but he's not confident and won't bet on her at -300.

won't bet on Souza at -300; likes the more/more on the strike line (over 73.5 combined strikes)
"i have to side with susan here though because i do think she can potentially be the bully and get on top"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Livinha Souza

Big Brady leans toward Souza despite her poor performance against Amanda Lemos, citing Souza's takedown ability and Randa Markos's 52% takedown defense. He expects the fight to play out on the mat where Souza can control and win a decision. However, he admits low confidence due to both fighters' low level and recommends no bet on this fight.

no bet recommended
"i'm kind of leaning on the soza side here um again there's there's not much confidence in this pic because you really can't be confident in soza"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Randa Markos

Cody leans towards Randa Markos as an underdog. He notes that Souza has looked awful in the UFC, quitting in her last fight, while Markos has fought only top competition and never quits. Cody believes Markos's grinding style and durability will be too much for Souza, who seems to lack heart. He sees this as a dogger pass and takes the underdog.

Dogger pass
"it's a dogger pass situation i'll take the underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randa Markos

Lock picks Markos based on volume and activity. He notes Souza has poor striking output and Markos will outwork her. He expects Markos to win by decision, as she is unlikely to finish. He acknowledges Markos' low fight IQ but thinks she can win.

Markos by decision +150
"i am on the marco's side no bet from me though i do think she goes out there and now volumes who's on the feet"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not make a pick, asking for Cody's blessing before betting. He notes that Souza has burned him before and that Markos's style may not be favored by judges. Paul seems uncertain and does not commit.

"i want the blessing on souza before i throw any money here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Livinha Souza

The MMA Guru picks Livinha Souza, arguing that she is undervalued due to her looks. He highlights her tough competition and believes Randa Markos has lost motivation. He predicts Souza will win by unanimous decision.

"get your money on liver hernandez she's actually kind of good"
LOSS vs Luana Pinheiro
DQ (illegal upkick) R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 40 45% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Randa Markos 0 29 of 53 54% 35 of 61 5 of 6 83% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 40 45% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Randa Markos 0 29 of 53 54% 35 of 61 5 of 6 83% 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Pinheiro 18 of 40 45% 12 of 32 6 of 7 0 of 1 12 of 34 5 of 5 1 of 1
Randa Markos 29 of 53 54% 22 of 44 4 of 5 3 of 4 20 of 38 7 of 7 2 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Pinheiro 18 of 40 45% 12 of 32 6 of 7 0 of 1 12 of 34 5 of 5 1 of 1
Randa Markos 29 of 53 54% 22 of 44 4 of 5 3 of 4 20 of 38 7 of 7 2 of 8
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Big Brady picks Luana Pinheiro to win by decision, but expresses hesitation about betting on Contender Series fighters, especially in women's MMA. He likes Pinheiro's aggression, power, and ability to take the fight down, noting Markos's poor takedown defense. However, he acknowledges that Contender Series favorites often fail to cover the price tag. He ultimately picks Pinheiro but says he won't bet on it.

"i will pick panera to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Cody thinks Pinheiro is a strong prospect with hands and a judo background, training at ATT with her boyfriend Matheus Nicolau. He notes that Randa Markos has lost three in a row and seems to be on a downswing, possibly thinking about retirement. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos in many areas and that -170 is a fair price. However, he has low confidence due to the unpredictability of women's MMA and the veteran vs. debutant dynamic.

"i think minus 170 is fair what about you"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Daniel Levi picks Luana Pinheiro to win, citing her finishing ability and jiu-jitsu credentials. He acknowledges the risk of a debut egg but believes Randa Markos is declining mentally and physically. Levi notes that Pinheiro's path to victory is takedowns and top control, as Markos has been dominated on the ground recently.

"i'm gonna go uh with luana here because i just don't think randa up here mentally is where she once was"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randa Markos

The host picks Randa Markos as an underdog, citing her experience and durability. He questions Pinheiro's cardio since all her wins are first-round finishes on the regional scene. He expects Markos to take the fight into deeper waters and grind out a decision.

Randa Markos by decision at +235; Over 2.5 rounds at -220; Fight goes to decision at -185
"I am going to go with marcos not with the utmost confidence and not just because she's canadian"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Markos has seen better days and is on a losing streak. He points out that Markos has never won back-to-back fights in the UFC and is getting older. He thinks Pinheiro is a natural finisher with good grappling and striking, and that she looks strong for 115 pounds. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos' telegraphing and suspect wrestling. He agrees that -170 is fair but has low confidence due to the level of competition.

"yeah yeah i agree i think rhonda marcos has seen better days"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The MMA Guru picks Luana Pinheiro over Randa Markos, expressing frustration with Markos' poor decision-making and lack of effort. He highlights Pinheiro's power and finishing ability, noting she has first-round finishes in her recent fights. He predicts Pinheiro will win by first-round finish, either by submission or KO.

first round finish
"i'm going to be picking luanna pinero here pretty confidently uh confidently to beat random archos and i'll say she gets a finish in the first round as well"
LOSS vs Kanako Murata
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kanako Murata 0 29 of 61 47% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randa Markos 0 29 of 43 67% 79 of 95 4 of 9 44% 2 0 9:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kanako Murata 0 7 of 11 63% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randa Markos 0 15 of 20 75% 36 of 42 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:34
2 Kanako Murata 0 15 of 33 45% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randa Markos 0 8 of 15 53% 20 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
3 Kanako Murata 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randa Markos 0 6 of 8 75% 23 of 26 1 of 2 50% 2 0 3:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kanako Murata 29 of 61 47% 12 of 36 10 of 12 7 of 13 19 of 50 9 of 10 1 of 1
Randa Markos 29 of 43 67% 24 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 22 1 of 3 17 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kanako Murata 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 4 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 0
Randa Markos 15 of 20 75% 14 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 13
2 Kanako Murata 15 of 33 45% 6 of 20 4 of 5 5 of 8 10 of 27 5 of 6 0 of 0
Randa Markos 8 of 15 53% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1
3 Kanako Murata 7 of 17 41% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 3 6 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Randa Markos 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Kanako Murata

Big Brady picks Murata due to her wrestling pedigree and top control, though he is wary of Markos' submission threat from guard. He notes Markos' poor fight IQ and takedown defense. He expects Murata to win a decision but is not betting due to the sketchy vibe.

decision prop mentioned as a possible look; not betting
"i like morata here i like her by decision but i'm not going to touch it from a betting perspective"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Kanako Murata

Daniel slightly leans with Murata, noting her disciplined game plan, strength, forward pressure, and ability to mix in takedowns. He thinks she can edge a decision if she stays disciplined. He acknowledges Markos has shown mental lapses and inconsistency, but warns that Murata is not a lock and the fight could be close. He advises not going crazy at the betting window.

"i'll slightly lean with her for that reason"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Randa Markos

The MMA Guru picks Randa Markos, despite her 10-10 record, because she has fought much better competition than Kanako Murata. He notes that Murata went to a split decision against a girl with an 8-5 record and hasn't beaten anyone notable. He believes Markos will piece up Murata on the feet for three rounds and win a unanimous decision.

Unanimous decision; mentions Markos' wins over Angela Hill and Carla Esparza
"I'm going to be going with Randa Markos getting the job done, I think she'll piece up Kanako Murata on the feet for three rounds earning herself a unanimous decision victory."
LOSS vs Mackenzie Dern
Submission (armbar) R1 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mackenzie Dern 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 5 1 1:45
Randa Markos 0 3 of 5 60% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mackenzie Dern 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 5 1 1:45
Randa Markos 0 3 of 5 60% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mackenzie Dern 9 of 13 69% 6 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 7
Randa Markos 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mackenzie Dern 9 of 13 69% 6 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 7
Randa Markos 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Randa Markos

Big Brady picks Randa Markos, citing Dern's poor wrestling (7% takedown accuracy) and striking. He believes the fight will stay on the feet where Markos is the better striker, and Markos has stated she will avoid Dern's strength. He expects a close decision win for Markos.

"give me random marcos to win a close decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The host sees this as a 50/50 fight where the winner depends on who imposes their game. He thinks Dern's best path is to get the fight to the ground and use her elite jiu-jitsu for a submission, but he questions her ability to secure takedowns against Markos. He notes Markos has the striking advantage and could outpoint Dern if she keeps it standing. He picks Dern by submission but acknowledges the value is on Markos at +145.

Mackenzie Dern wins by submission +145; under 2.5 rounds +100
"I'm still going to be picking mckenzie during to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The host picks Mackenzie Dern over Randa Markos, citing Dern's dominant performance against Hannah Cifers and her youth. He notes Markos's age (35) and many losses to top competition. He predicts a submission win in the first or second round.

submission in first or second round
"I'm gonna go with mackenzie dunn getting it done by submission marcos i don't has a good chance on the feet though... i think mackenzie dune gets it done by submission in the first or second."
LOSS vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Mar 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 85 of 159 53% 173 of 254 1 of 3 33% 2 1 7:24
Randa Markos 0 36 of 77 46% 56 of 99 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 22 of 41 53% 51 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:04
Randa Markos 0 7 of 15 46% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Ribas 0 31 of 74 41% 61 of 105 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:25
Randa Markos 0 23 of 51 45% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Ribas 0 32 of 44 72% 61 of 76 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:55
Randa Markos 0 6 of 11 54% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 85 of 159 53% 57 of 125 18 of 24 10 of 10 45 of 111 8 of 9 32 of 39
Randa Markos 36 of 77 46% 22 of 58 3 of 7 11 of 12 33 of 74 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 22 of 41 53% 14 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 25 2 of 3 10 of 13
Randa Markos 7 of 15 46% 5 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Ribas 31 of 74 41% 18 of 56 8 of 13 5 of 5 26 of 69 5 of 5 0 of 0
Randa Markos 23 of 51 45% 13 of 38 2 of 4 8 of 9 22 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Amanda Ribas 32 of 44 72% 25 of 37 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 17 1 of 1 22 of 26
Randa Markos 6 of 11 54% 4 of 7 1 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel is confident in Ribas, citing her size advantage, superior jiu-jitsu, and judo. He thinks she can take Markos down and submit her or win a dominant decision. He notes Markos is tough but Ribas is on a different talent level.

"i'ma go a rebus by 30 26 in Brazil I think she gets it done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The host picks Amanda Ribas over Randa Markos. He notes that Markos is dangerous but will be too short in reach and length. Ribas is coming off a win over Mackenzie Dern and will use her reach advantage to jab Markos's face for three rounds. He also mentions Markos's age (34) as a factor.

"I'm gonna go over man to Alaska in a job done and jabbing off random al qasas face for free rounds"
WIN vs Ashley Yoder
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Oct 26, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randa Markos 0 78 of 140 55% 94 of 158 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:05
Ashley Yoder 0 44 of 107 41% 82 of 148 2 of 6 33% 0 1 5:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randa Markos 0 8 of 10 80% 9 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Ashley Yoder 0 11 of 16 68% 22 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:41
2 Randa Markos 0 39 of 54 72% 54 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:31
Ashley Yoder 0 19 of 36 52% 41 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
3 Randa Markos 0 31 of 76 40% 31 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Ashley Yoder 0 14 of 55 25% 19 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randa Markos 78 of 140 55% 58 of 116 10 of 13 10 of 11 42 of 93 26 of 33 10 of 14
Ashley Yoder 44 of 107 41% 30 of 84 11 of 16 3 of 7 24 of 80 5 of 10 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randa Markos 8 of 10 80% 4 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ashley Yoder 11 of 16 68% 7 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 7 1 of 3 6 of 6
2 Randa Markos 39 of 54 72% 31 of 45 5 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 22 15 of 18 10 of 14
Ashley Yoder 19 of 36 52% 15 of 30 2 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 20 2 of 5 9 of 11
3 Randa Markos 31 of 76 40% 23 of 65 3 of 5 5 of 6 23 of 64 8 of 12 0 of 0
Ashley Yoder 14 of 55 25% 8 of 44 5 of 7 1 of 4 12 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cláudia Gadelha 0 40 of 107 37% 41 of 108 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Randa Markos 0 25 of 109 22% 26 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cláudia Gadelha 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randa Markos 0 10 of 34 29% 10 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cláudia Gadelha 0 10 of 31 32% 11 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Randa Markos 0 7 of 35 20% 8 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cláudia Gadelha 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randa Markos 0 8 of 40 20% 8 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cláudia Gadelha 40 of 107 37% 36 of 96 1 of 4 3 of 7 37 of 98 3 of 9 0 of 0
Randa Markos 25 of 109 22% 19 of 99 3 of 4 3 of 6 17 of 96 8 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cláudia Gadelha 12 of 35 34% 11 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
Randa Markos 10 of 34 29% 8 of 32 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Cláudia Gadelha 10 of 31 32% 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 3 10 of 28 0 of 3 0 of 0
Randa Markos 7 of 35 20% 5 of 30 1 of 2 1 of 3 6 of 31 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Cláudia Gadelha 18 of 41 43% 15 of 35 1 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randa Markos 8 of 40 20% 6 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
WIN vs Angela Hill
Submission (armbar) R1 4:24 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Mar 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randa Markos 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:53
Angela Hill 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randa Markos 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:53
Angela Hill 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randa Markos 13 of 26 50% 9 of 21 4 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 13 5 of 5 8 of 8
Angela Hill 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randa Markos 13 of 26 50% 9 of 21 4 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 13 5 of 5 8 of 8
Angela Hill 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Randa Markos

Round 1
It’s time for a women’s strawweight bout between Randa Markos and Angela Hill. The official in charge of the action is Keith Peterson. No touch of gloves for this one. Hill with a kick to the body. Markos with a straight right and uses it to get inside and clinch up with Hill. But Hill reverses position and now has Markos up against the fence. Markos lands two knees and then an elbow off the break. She marches forward on Hill, who clinches up with her but Markos whips her to the ground with a body lock takedown. Markos is now working in side control. She moves over into mount and then takes the back of Hill. Markos is looking for the rear-naked choke while also landing punches to the head of Hill. She moves back into mount. Hill tries to buck her off but Markos gets her hooks in and takes the back of Hill.
She switches to an armbar and Hill is in massive trouble now. Hill is doing her best to defend but Markos has a minute to work here. Hill is doing a great job of defending but eventually succumbs to the submission as Markos stretches the arm back and Hill taps to the armbar
.

The Official Result
Randa Markos def. Angela Hill via Submission (Armbar) R1, 4:20
Carla Esparza - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 39 of 123 31% 116 of 215 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:40
Carla Esparza 0 80 of 150 53% 94 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 6 of 26 23% 77 of 105 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:52
Carla Esparza 0 13 of 38 34% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 43 27% 17 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:29
Carla Esparza 0 31 of 55 56% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 21 of 54 38% 22 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Carla Esparza 0 36 of 57 63% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 39 of 123 31% 30 of 112 4 of 6 5 of 5 33 of 110 0 of 3 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 80 of 150 53% 28 of 92 11 of 12 41 of 46 75 of 142 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 6 of 26 23% 4 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 13 of 38 34% 8 of 32 3 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 12 of 43 27% 6 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 31 of 55 56% 14 of 37 5 of 5 12 of 13 31 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 21 of 54 38% 20 of 53 0 of 0 1 of 1 15 of 44 0 of 0 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 36 of 57 63% 6 of 23 3 of 4 27 of 30 34 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds is the safest bet on the card
"Tisha is the pick she's going to be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here I'm I'm going to take Pennington to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.

"I will take Carlos sparza"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.

"I'm going to go with Carla Esparza too. I know it's her retirement fight, but she's really, really tough to beat."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.

"I'mma go with uh Tia Tores here to come out here and win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.

"I believe Pennington is very much improved since that matchup and given that both these women are now moms most recently Carla sparza I do believe that will see Pennington a little bit better in terms of being in the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"it's a total dog or pass situation for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.

"I'm going to go with Tisha Pennington here over Carla espara you guys God I might regret that but I'll go with that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.

"I guess Esparza because she's probably going to win around."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:05 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 6 of 32 18% 19 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 1 0:55
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 78 47% 42 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 5 of 27 18% 18 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 1 0:53
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 65 50% 38 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Carla Esparza 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 6 of 32 18% 6 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 37 of 78 47% 20 of 58 8 of 9 9 of 11 24 of 63 0 of 0 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 5 of 27 18% 5 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 33 of 65 50% 19 of 48 6 of 7 8 of 10 20 of 50 0 of 0 13 of 15
2 Zhang Weili 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.

"I expect Whaley to win this fight she's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.

Zhang Weili inside the distance; finish by TKO/corner stoppage/cut
"I think Zhang Whaley beats the crap out of Esparza I think Zhang Willy finishes as far as at some point in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance for safety
"I can probably will skip the money line at minus 335... inside the distance for Zhang Wei Lee is like a Peckham price right now so that's where my my money's gonna end up in the co-main event."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'

Predicts a finish (KO/TKO or submission); odds mentioned: Weili -350, Esparza +290 at DraftKings
"I'm gonna go with Wiley Zhang to finish Carlos Esparza I mean that's what I kind of see happening"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.

Zhang inside the distance, under 4.5 rounds (+100)
"I do think that Zhang inside the distance is probably the best bet in this matchup taking her to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance
"I actually agree with you 100... I got that TKO prop... take the inside the distance it's like there's minus one tens out there the best I see is plus 120 on the chaos let's decal."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.

first round TKO
"you kind of have to go Zhang Wei Lee here"
Decision (split) (47–48, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 136 27% 38 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 133 22% 30 of 133 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
4 Carla Esparza 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:20
5 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 31 16% 5 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 37 of 136 27% 30 of 122 6 of 12 1 of 2 36 of 135 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 133 22% 15 of 108 4 of 11 11 of 14 27 of 128 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 4 of 19 21% 4 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 19 21% 2 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 22 18% 1 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 11 of 36 30% 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 9 of 32 28% 7 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Carla Esparza 6 of 28 21% 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 29 27% 3 of 22 1 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Carla Esparza 13 of 39 33% 7 of 30 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 31 16% 2 of 24 0 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.

"rose is the pick i'm gonna be rooting for carla i want carla to win but if five takedowns and 162 strikes landed didn't get wei lee the nod i just don't know what carla's gonna be able to do"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.

decision
"I like rose nominee units to win this fight I don't think she like wins every round I do think esparza is going to take off a round or two but I do think as far as picking a winner …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.

"i think it's a favorable fight for rose nominess for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.

Daniel mentions he is not betting this fight. He notes the under 4.5 rounds at +155 is interesting but does not bet it.
"I would take Rose if pick'em fight, I'd take Rose. Maybe minus 150 I'd consider, but I just don't want to lay chalk."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"so give me rose and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.

live betting Esparza if she gets early takedown
"i think rose rates the ship here gets back on track it's a very very straightforward fight for her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.

Rose Namajunas by fourth round finish, rear-naked choke
"i'm going to have to go with rose and amy eunice and i'll go over rose nami eunis by uh fourth round finish real naked choke"
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
TKO (punches) R2 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 5 of 11 45% 31 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 27 of 33 81% 170 of 194 3 of 3 100% 0 0 7:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 2 of 5 40% 24 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 13 of 15 86% 104 of 117 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:52
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 14 of 18 77% 66 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 4
Yan Xiaonan 27 of 33 81% 27 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 26 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Yan Xiaonan 13 of 15 86% 13 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 13 of 15
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Yan Xiaonan 14 of 18 77% 14 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 16
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.

Yan by close decision; would bet Yan if underdog
"i'm going to side with yon to get it done by a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.

no bet, fight goes the distance (parlay)
"i trust the the line movement that we've seen from the plus 150 to the plus 100 i think this is you know closer to a peckham type of fight and esparza will be my pick no bet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.

unanimous decision, possibly late TKO
"i think that yan zhaonan's distance game is gonna really frustrate her i think she's gonna stick to the boxing in the hands and i think carla esparza is gonna be taking some shots from really far out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.

Carla Esparza by decision (+168), Carla Esparza by submission (+800 sprinkle)
"i have to go against my heart and i gotta pick carla esparza to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.

pass, fight goes the distance (parlay)
"i think that with yon it's like she probably just stuffs more of these takedowns than not keeps the fight standing lands the more impactful shots"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Yan Xiaonan

The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.

"i'm going to go with yan zhao nan i think she's going to be too good at take down defense"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 60 55% 118 of 152 5 of 9 55% 1 0 8:54
Marina Rodriguez 0 40 of 76 52% 91 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 12 66% 49 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:21
Marina Rodriguez 0 20 of 33 60% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
2 Carla Esparza 0 7 of 19 36% 32 of 47 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:28
Marina Rodriguez 0 14 of 29 48% 43 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Carla Esparza 0 18 of 29 62% 37 of 49 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 6 of 14 42% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 33 of 60 55% 29 of 56 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 16 1 of 1 28 of 43
Marina Rodriguez 40 of 76 52% 34 of 70 0 of 0 6 of 6 15 of 38 0 of 1 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 12
Marina Rodriguez 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 25
2 Carla Esparza 7 of 19 36% 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 11
Marina Rodriguez 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 5 8 of 18 0 of 1 6 of 10
3 Carla Esparza 18 of 29 62% 15 of 26 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 20
Marina Rodriguez 6 of 14 42% 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.

Rodriguez by third round knockout; placed bet at -160
"I like rodriguez um as at the line here minus 180. um I'll tell you guys right now I did place a bet on this fight I got our minus 160 though"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.

"i think she's ready for this big test i think she's going to come out here and pass it so i'm going marina rodriguez to get the biggest win of her career over the former former champion esparza"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.

Esparza by decision (+145)
"i gotta side with the dog here you know this fight should be lined a little bit closer"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.

"I'm going to be going with Ka Espaza getting a job done even though Marina Rodriguez looked pretty good against Tisha Torres."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 45 of 103 43% 48 of 106 1 of 10 10% 0 0 0:46
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 44 of 98 44% 44 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 5 of 18 27% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 15 of 31 48% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:11
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 45 of 103 43% 34 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 7 39 of 94 5 of 8 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 44 of 98 44% 15 of 60 13 of 16 16 of 22 39 of 92 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 5 of 18 27% 3 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 9 of 28 32% 4 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 7 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 15 of 31 48% 13 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 2 14 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 26 50% 3 of 15 4 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 25 of 54 46% 18 of 46 4 of 5 3 of 3 21 of 47 4 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 22 of 44 50% 8 of 27 7 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.

"I like Asparza here just for the fact that I think she can go out here and get takedowns in a close fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.

"I'm gonna go with the underdog here man i'ma go at karate hottie I think that she's got more tricks up her sleeve"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.

Carla Esparza by decision
"I'm still leaning Carlos far as a here I'm gonna say caller does eventually grind her out"
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 44 of 80 55% 115 of 157 4 of 11 36% 0 1 7:12
Alexa Grasso 0 45 of 103 43% 103 of 169 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 18 of 36 50% 36 of 54 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Alexa Grasso 0 17 of 41 41% 33 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 18 72% 56 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:25
Alexa Grasso 0 6 of 20 30% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
3 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 1 2:16
Alexa Grasso 0 22 of 42 52% 35 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 44 of 80 55% 27 of 60 11 of 14 6 of 6 28 of 59 6 of 9 10 of 12
Alexa Grasso 45 of 103 43% 41 of 97 4 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 88 3 of 6 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 18 of 36 50% 8 of 25 7 of 8 3 of 3 13 of 29 4 of 6 1 of 1
Alexa Grasso 17 of 41 41% 15 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 1
2 Carla Esparza 13 of 18 72% 10 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 11
Alexa Grasso 6 of 20 30% 5 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Carla Esparza 13 of 26 50% 9 of 20 2 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 22 of 42 52% 21 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 35 0 of 0 7 of 7
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 25 of 51 49% 97 of 128 4 of 10 40% 0 1 5:25
Virna Jandiroba 0 17 of 37 45% 64 of 89 3 of 9 33% 0 2 3:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 12 66% 26 of 32 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:37
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 10 70% 22 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:43
2 Carla Esparza 0 9 of 20 45% 28 of 40 1 of 6 16% 0 1 0:43
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 15 46% 24 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:42
3 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 19 42% 43 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:05
Virna Jandiroba 0 3 of 12 25% 18 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 25 of 51 49% 18 of 43 6 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 8 of 12 5 of 9
Virna Jandiroba 17 of 37 45% 13 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 30 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 8 of 12 66% 4 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 1 of 1
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 10 70% 3 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 3 of 5 2 of 5
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1
3 Carla Esparza 8 of 19 42% 7 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 3
Virna Jandiroba 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0