Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
Career Averages - Reinier de Ridder
Robert Whittaker
Reinier de Ridder
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
AJ is excited for Whittaker at light heavyweight, calling him a new mythical fighter. He believes Whittaker will be fast and strong at 205 and sees a pathway to gold there, unlike at middleweight where Chimaev and Du Plessis block him.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker by knockout in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and power will increase at 205, and that his karate-based striking and footwork will be too much for Krylov, who he considers washed. He expects Whittaker to fend off takedowns and land hard counters.
AJ picks Whittaker to win by knockout, emphasizing his speed advantage and superior technique. He believes Whittaker's footwork and striking will be too much for Krylov, who has shown a weak chin recently. AJ notes that Whittaker's move to light heavyweight should benefit him, and that Krylov's offensive wrestling won't be a factor.
AJ is confident in Robert Whittaker in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and precision will be too much for Nikita Krylov, who has been knocked out recently. He expects a stoppage, possibly by knockout, and sees Whittaker as a contender at 205.
AJ believes Robert Whittaker will be faster and cleaner, and expects him to look good. He likes the moneyline at -135 and thinks Whittaker is live for a KO at +230. He notes Krylov has a suspect chin and expects Whittaker to win by knockout, possibly over 1.5 rounds.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker, believing he is live for the finish and that Krylov is washed. He thinks Whittaker at light heavyweight will be a beast and that Krylov has no path to victory.
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker despite concerns about the weight move. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter everywhere—faster, cleaner striking, better wrestling. He thinks Krylov is not elite and Whittaker should win. He is surprised the odds are close and thinks Whittaker's skills will overcome the size disadvantage.
Angelo thinks Whittaker is the better fighter and should win, but questions the move to light heavyweight. He notes Whittaker was a welterweight and never a big middleweight, and that Krylov will be much larger. He believes Whittaker's skill will overcome the size disadvantage.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He questions which fighter is more washed and concludes it's Krylov, noting Krylov's age, wars, and lack of wrestling recently. He acknowledges Whittaker's recent losses but believes he is still skilled and will be the better striker. He is concerned about Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and size disadvantage but thinks he can land a big shot on Krylov's suspect chin.
Big Brady leans towards Whittaker but is not confident. He calls it the '1800 gambler fight of the week' between two washed fighters. He notes Whittaker is moving up to light heavyweight and will be undersized, but Krylov has looked awful and no longer grapples. He thinks Whittaker is the better striker and might have better durability, but doesn't love the current -210 price. He might consider Whittaker by KO if the line is good.
Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 2.5 rounds at -120 for 1.5 units. He notes both fighters are chinny and have been finished multiple times, and Krylov is one of the most violent fighters in the division with a high finish rate. He sees multiple ways the fight can end early, including a knockout from either side or a submission from Krylov. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Cody picks Whittaker, arguing that Krylov lacks heart and is a glass cannon. He believes Whittaker's experience and skill will overcome the weight jump, and that Krylov's wild style leaves openings. He notes Whittaker has fought bigger guys before.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov for the upset, questioning why the odds are not closer to pick'em. He notes that both fighters are past their prime, but Krylov has the size advantage and is an opportunistic finisher. Levi is concerned about Whittaker's chin and his move up to light heavyweight, believing Krylov's power and size could be decisive.
Jacob picks Robert Whittaker but worries about his chin and the power jump to light heavyweight. He notes that Krylov is chinny and Whittaker has blitzes down the middle that could knock him out. He placed a bet on Whittaker inside the distance because Krylov is hittable. He is cautious about the weight move but believes Whittaker is the better fighter.
Lucrative James picks Nikita Krylov via KO, comparing Whittaker's move to light heavyweight to Chris Weidman's failed attempt. He believes Whittaker's chin won't hold up against the size and power of a natural light heavyweight, and that Krylov's physicality will be too much. He notes Whittaker's skill advantage but expects a knockout finish inside the distance.
The host notes that Whittaker's odds have moved from -190 to -125, making it a more bettable line. He expects Whittaker's speed to be the difference, finding the chin early and often to secure a knockout.
The host leans with Whittaker's speed and power to find Krylov's chin for a knockout, but has low confidence due to Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and questions about durability and size. He would need a better price than -190 to bet.
Paul picks Whittaker but is very hesitant due to the move to 205 and Whittaker's age and recent performances. He notes Krylov's wildness and questionable chin, but worries about Whittaker's durability and power translation.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by KO in the first or second round. He believes Whittaker's technical striking and speed will be too much for Krylov. He notes that Krylov's only path to victory is power and aggression, but Whittaker can defend that. He predicts Whittaker will catch Krylov with a lead left hook as Krylov throws a high kick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 66 of 142 | 46% | 70 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 67 of 145 | 46% | 192 of 282 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 29 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 37 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 73 of 83 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 66 of 142 | 46% | 62 of 135 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 51 of 123 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 67 of 145 | 46% | 41 of 105 | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 54 of 128 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 34 | 58% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 15 of 35 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 9 of 27 | 33% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 16 of 38 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 28 | 71% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 6 of 22 | 27% | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 11 of 31 | 35% | 9 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-150); de Ridder (+120)
Round 1
There is one more fight on the docket today, and it should be a good one. Former champ Whittaker (26-8, 17-6 UFC), dead set on one final run at the middleweight throne, will have to get through de Ridder (20-2, 3-0 UFC) to start it off. This interesting stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Marc Goddard, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue instructions and elicit a glove touch. They touch gloves. It’s time for some action.
De Ridder strikes first with an awkward front kick, and he turns to the side to avoid the Whittaker blitz. Whittaker throws a kick that is caught, and he bounces off his knees on the floor and then drives home a few short uppercuts on the inside before getting his leg back. De Ridder hangs on to Whittaker in the tie-up, and an oddly angled stalemate ensues with both men not willing to make a mistake. “RDR” plants a couple knees to the body to force Whittaker to push him away, and Whittaker resets and lunges and tags the Dutchman with a one-two. The punches from Whittaker cause some damage on the inside corner of de Ridder’s left eye, and he targets the same spot with long, sharp jabs. “RDR” fails badly on a takedown shot, with Whittaker easily staving off the attempt and lashing out with a leaping left hook. Whittaker stays in the center of the cage, looking for his left hand.
Whittaker connects with a left and a right on the underdog, and he clips him a second time and marks his nose up. De Ridder attempts a kick, and Whittaker swats it away and backs him off with long punches. A labored shot from “RDR” is easily stuffed, and he follows it with a front kick. Whittaker shuts him down, taking a knee as he circles away that slow him enough to allow de Ridder to grab hold of him. Whittaker breaks free with 90 seconds to go, where his jab off the temple rattles de Ridder. De Ridder responds with a head kick that is blocked in time. Whittaker’s lunging left hands reach the target more often than not, and his follow-up right hand is money. When “RDR” commits to a kick, Whittaker tags him with a right hand to stop it from going anywhere. De Ridder steps in with two big knees, and Whittaker retaliates by wrapping a left hand around his head. Whittaker catches his man at the end of a right hand, and he blocks two front kicks as the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 2
Whittaker comes out of his corner with his hands by his waist, looking for ways to dart in. He sneaks in a long left, and when countered, he slips and recovers. De Ridder whiffs on a left hook, with Whittaker able to back him away with a check left hook. Whittaker tries to catch him on the other side with a kick, and when that misses, he jabs and is ready to stuff the takedown that comes. They crash together, and de Ridder takes the worst of an uppercut that spins him around. Whittaker crowds the Dutchman, picking his shots carefully and not staying in the same place long to get caught. De Ridder does wing a left hand at him that partially lands, and Whittaker is quick to move and sway. Whittaker gets off a left up top as “RDR” attacks him with a one-two, and he allows de Ridder to approach him and go for a knee so he can fire off a right hand. De Ridder jabs his way forward, and Whittaker ducks and cracks him with a right hand.
De Ridder stabs out a right hand and plants his knee on Whittaker’s chest, and Whittaker responds with a left hook. De Ridder nails his foe with another knee up the middle, with his momentum carrying him into a successful takedown. “RDR” searches for a submission quickly, and Whittaker recovers to guard and uses butterfly hooks to get enough space to get out. De Ridder drops down a number of left hands on the bloodying nose of his opponent, all while imposing his weight on top and getting to half guard. Whittaker recovers back to guard, moving and swaying to evade the shots from above. De Ridder elbows his foe in the stomach, and he jams Whittaker up with an elbow on the face as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 3
Whittaker bounces around to start off the round, looping a left hand partially around the raised guard to start. “RDR” fakes a takedown shot and nails the former champ with a knee, and his second knee gets Whittaker’s attention and drives him back. Whittaker is against the ropes, figuratively speaking, and he unloads a mighty right hand in response that sends de Ridder crashing to the floor. Whittaker hovers over the Dutch fighter, blasting him with ferocious ground-and-pound as Goddard watches on closely. De Ridder manages to work his way to his feet, where he initiates a clinch and leans on Whittaker to catch their breath. Whittaker wants out of the tie-up, countering a knee with an overhand right. The shot from the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” fails, with Whittaker able to stop this attempt and reply with a one-two. De Ridder replies in kind. Whittaker tags de Ridder coming in with a right, and both men are wearing it and sucking wind at the midpoint of the third round.
Whittaker comes up just short of his right hand, and de Ridder tackles him to the floor with relative ease. De Ridder starts smothering as he slowly moves into half guard, keeping his weight down on the former champ to force him to remain flat on his back. De Ridder pops over to side control, and Whittaker turns to pull him back to half guard. Whittaker nearly scrambles well enough to escape, but de Ridder’s top control prevents him from getting out. De Ridder lowers himself down to set up a brabo choke, looping his arm under the armpit and letting it go when Whittaker is wise to it. De Ridder holds on, grinding his elbow down but not striking with much. De Ridder sits on top to lower a few elbows down, and it will be interesting to see if the ground control of “RDR” swayed judges to award it in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 4
Reaching the championship rounds, it is de Ridder who starts off pushing the pace. Whittaker stabs out a left hand while “RDR” steps in with a knee, using the forward movement to tie Whittaker up. De Ridder attempts and fails to complete a body lock takedown, setting for leaning against the former champ. Whittaker bails out of it and puts a one-two on the chin, and his right hand intercepts a step-in knee from his opponent. De Ridder pursues the clinch again, and Whittaker hand-fights and absorbs a single knee to the gut before getting out. De Ridder shoots from a wide berth, and Whittaker stuffs it, but de Ridder is once more clinging to him. De Ridder winds up to bop the Aussie on the nose with a shoulder strike, and he replicates it but sacrifice throws himself to the floor. Whittaker stands back rather than dealing with the grappler in his element.
Whittaker dances out of the way of long jabs and knees, popping de Ridder with a solid left hand. Both men score single power punches until de Ridder walks Whittaker to the fence to force him to carry his weight. When Whittaker escapes, he barely is able to slide past a head kick. De Ridder flicks out a jab, and he fakes a kick and lands another. Whittaker retaliates with a few punches down the middle, and the big left hand that lands on him does not budge him. Whittaker bounces off the fence and looks for a left hook, and it is de Ridder who hits him harder with a stern knee. De Ridder wings a right hand that stumbles the former champ, and he throws a follow-up so hard that he nearly falls over. Whittaker reaches out with a few inaccurate punches, ending the round by catching de Ridder with a short right hand.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 5
It could be all tied up going into the fifth frame, and Whittaker appears the fresher of the two. He springs into action behind long, rangy jabs. By pouncing in and out, Whittaker is able to get away from most counters. De Ridder manages to get him back with a left hand, but Whittaker scores several more and fights out of a single. Whittaker ducks down and cracks de Ridder with a right hand, and de Ridder ties him up and pushes him to the wire. Whittaker tries hard to escape, not allowing de Ridder to take him down, but he otherwise eats short strikes that are counting. Whittaker breaks off and watches a high knee go past him, but de Ridder uses this to close the distance. Whittaker again gets out, and he thinks about a kick but does not have enough in the tank. He does lunge forward with a left, and “RDR” retorts with a trip that Whittaker is able to bounce down and up to recover. Whittaker elbows his man to break away.
The former champ sticks jabs in his foe’s face, and de Ridder goes back for the clinch. A knee from “RDR” does land to the side, and after a brief stalemate, Whittaker fights out of it and rips a right hand to the midsection. Whittaker goes to the same spot again, and de Ridder bops him with a few jabs and drills him with a right hand. De Ridder uses a knee to close the distance so he can tie the ex-champion up, and the fans do not love the approach of the Dutch fighter. Whittaker stands his man up by stopping a takedown and clipping him with a right hand. De Ridder reaches down for a takedown, partially lands a knee and backs up to the wall. “Bobby Knuckles” kicks his man in the face, and de Ridder ties him up. Whittaker is desperate to get out of this, even trying to catch a knee to turn out. He is stuck against the fencing until time has elapsed, and it could go either way.
Having won against one of the biggest names in the division, de Ridder has one name in mind: champ Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” will be squaring off against Khamzat Chimaev in a few weeks, so his dance card is full. When “RDR” does fight again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (48-47 Whittaker)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder (48-47 de Ridder)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder (48-47 de Ridder)
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Robert Whittaker via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.
Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)
Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.
Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.
Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.
Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.
Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.
Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.
The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.
Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.
Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-142), Aliskerov (+120)
Round 1
The main event of “UFC Saudi Arabia” sees former middleweight champ Whittaker looking to stay in the title picture, as he faces short-notice opponent Aliskerov, who stepped up for the ailing Khamzat Chimaev and finds himself with the opportunity of a lifetime, in position to jump the line at 185 pounds. Drawing the final referee assignment of the evening is Marc Goddard. They touch gloves and set up in matching orthodox stances, and Aliskerov reaches out with a high front kick that comes up short. Whittaker scores with a right leg kick. Aliskerov throws a body kick that Whittaker parries with his arm. Whittaker ducks into range with a double jab. Whittaker blisters Aliskerov with a short right hand, then a left. The Dagestani goes staggering back and Whittaker follows up with a head kick that doesn’t land perfectly, but does damage as well.
“The Reaper” lives up to his name, claiming Aliskerov’s soul with a crushing right uppercut
. Aliskerov drops in place, and only one or two follow-up blows get through before Goddard is there for the stoppage. Fantastic work from “Bobby Knuckles.”
The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Ikram Aliskerov R1 1:49 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.
Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.
Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.
JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.
Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 95 of 175 | 54% | 95 of 175 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 67 of 151 | 44% | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 38 of 62 | 61% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 95 of 175 | 54% | 63 of 143 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 172 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 67 of 151 | 44% | 39 of 117 | 8 of 12 | 20 of 22 | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 38 of 62 | 61% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 27 of 49 | 55% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 32 of 55 | 58% | 20 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 26 of 54 | 48% | 16 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 58 | 43% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 14 of 48 | 29% | 7 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-225), Costa (+185)
Round 1
For the co-main event, the particulars of this middleweight matchup are extremely close. Separated by four months in age, one inch in both height and reach—but not both for one man—and very similar takedown defense rates, Whittaker (24-7, 15-5 UFC) vs. Costa (14-2, 6-2 UFC) appears to be a quite well-matched fight. Both men do prefer to end fights via knockout, but it has been since 2017 for the former and 2018 for the latter to procure a stoppage via strikes. Knowing this could go the long haul but be quite a fun one, referee Mike Beltran dons his hard hat. Both men are incredibly intense and do not touch gloves, and instead they go right after it. Perhaps having studied the strategy of Israel Adesanya against Costa, Whittaker goes right to low kick after low kick. Costa throws back with a left hand that reddens up Whittaker’s cheek, and he blocks a big high kick in the nick of time. Costa checks a leg kick, but Whittaker continues to target the lead wheel. Costa attacks another head kick, and Whittaker sees it coming and defends it, but the sheer impact knocks him to the side. Costa’s power punches redden up Whittaker’s face, and Whittaker goes after another kick down low. Costa partially checks it, and his leg begins to swell. Whittaker dips back to counter a lunging Costa with a big right, and when Costa strikes back, Whittaker beans him with a left hook. Costa stuns Whittaker with a straight left hand, but Whittaker rushes at him and tags him with a few punches. Costa smiles and laughs, and Whittaker punches him in the face again a few times. Whittaker blitzes with a right hand and a harsh calf kick, and Costa is struggling to plant on the lead leg after about three minutes as his shin swells. Costa prepares to check another kick, and he leans to the proper direction as a blazing fast right hand from the Aussie soars past him. Costa eats a sharp jab and walks into a second, and he flicks out a power jab in response. Whittaker charges with a right down hand down the middle, and Costa smiles. “Bobby Knuckles” scores a low kick on one leg, and when Costa switches stances, Whittaker lands one on the other side. Costa allows Whittaker to crowd him with offense so he can dig some body shots, but he does not escape unscathed as Whittaker targets him up top. Whittaker kicks him in the chest with a side kick, and Costa spins suddenly with a wheel kick that rings the former champ’s bell. Whittaker, hurt and wobbled like a baby deer, bites down on his mouthguard and swings for the fences. The round ends with the two middleweights brawling, and that single power strike might have stolen the Brazilian the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
Whittaker comes out of his corner no worse the wear, and his sea legs appear to be beneath him. Whittaker goes after low kicks and connects with a few punches up top. Costa responds with his own calf kick and a right hand, and he zooms up a head kick from his lead leg that slams into Whittaker’s guard. Costa snaps the head back with a jab, and Whittaker gives him two back to think about. Whittaker kicks Costa upside the head, and Costa eats it and sticks his tongue out. Costa connects with a vicious leg kick, and Whittaker’s lead leg is welting up as well. Whittaker responds immediately with his own calf kick, and a responding jab from Costa busts up the former champ’s nose. Costa keeps pushing out the jab, intercepting Whittaker until his thumb slides out and jabs into Whittaker’s eye. Costa smiles sheepishly, and Whittaker gets a pause. Whittaker wants to get right back to it, and he drives kicks into Costa’s lead leg on the restart and swings hard up high. Costa continues to jab up his foe’s bloody mug, but Whittaker is outlanding him and doing so with power. Whittaker rolls his shoulder to move with a punch, and he staggers Costa with a right hand and a thudding calf kick. Whittaker winds up with a power right hand, and a left that follows gives Costa further pause. Whittaker delivers a vicious kick to the same spot, and he unloads with a combination that knock Costa’s head around like a heavy bag. Costa waves him on, but Whittaker does not bite and instead settles back down to chipping and working on the lead leg. Costa goes up high twice with two kicks that are blocked, and he hops back to avoid the brunt of a leg kick and a right hand. Whittaker gets off a side kick to the torso, and Costa prods out a jab to back Whittaker off. Costa whips a kick right by Whittaker’s beard, and he absorbs a flush low kick that makes his leg wobble. Whittaker hits Costa with everything he has, but the Brazilian just absorbs it and smiles. Costa wanders forward, but the round ends before he can reach out with anything.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 3
The last round opens with Costa running out to the center of the cage, and he lets go with a one-two. Whittaker shrugs it off and powers out a pair of jabs. Costa jabs the body back, and he swipes out with a calf kick that breezes past the front leg. Whittaker darts out with a left hook that lands on the temple, and the two clash with kicks at the same time. Whittaker’s jab is finding its home, and his leg kick does as well. Costa connects with a stern low kick, and Whittaker crowds him and cracks him with a huge right hand. Costa goes back to the leg kick, and Whittaker bounces back away from the looping shots that come at him. Costa drives a knee to the chest to get Whittaker’s attention, and they crash together and disengage. Whittaker checks a kick and stumbles Costa with a left hook, but Costa recovers himself and eats another left hand. Whittaker races forward with a fierce right hand, and Costa’s chin is granite as he takes these shots that would fell heavyweights. Costa takes a hard leg kick and points at the groin to draw a brawl, and Whittaker does not throw his game plan in the trash and swing recklessly. They trade leg kicks, and Costa pushes out a front kick. Whittaker reaches out with two left hands, and he blocks a head kick that flies at him. Whittaker gets off another swiping left, and he pokes a jab out to follow before nearly kicking out Costa’s lead leg. Costa strikes with a jab, and Whittaker does the same and dips a hook. Whittaker snaps the head back with a jab, and Costa is right there in his face to jab him back. Costa attempts another spinning wheel kick, but he misses, and Whittaker makes him pay with a short combination. Whittaker lashes out with another brief combo, and they both unleash fiery kicks that land at the same time. These two are going strike for strike as time ticks off the clock in this absolute blood and guts affair, and the damage from Whittaker’s blows have finally drawn some blood. Whittaker wings a left hand, and his leaping strikes find the mark as he backs off to avoid counters. Costa walks through a few left hands, and he fires off a high kick. Whittaker shoots for a takedown, bails on it, and comes up top with two mighty hooks. Both middleweights raise their arms after a terrific hard-fought battle, and time expires. This was worth the wait.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Paulo Costa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.
Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.
Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.
Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 32 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 62 of 104 | 59% | 74 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 62 of 104 | 59% | 38 of 77 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 41 of 77 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 44 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 9 of 26 | 34% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 33 of 50 | 66% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-400), du Plessis (+300)
Round 1
Depending on the outcome of this fight, a title fight at 185 pounds may be the reward. Former champ Whittaker (24-6, 15-4 UFC) will try to hold the line and earn another crack at Israel Adesanya, while the surging Du Plessis (19-2, 5-0 UFC) is hoping to shock the masses. The two have up to 15 minutes to figure things out, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. The gloves are touched, and Whittaker moves on the outside and tosses up a head kick. Du Plessis responds with a low kick, and he backpedals when Whittaker comes at him with a one-two. Du Plessis reaches with a kick to the midsection, and he walks into a leg kick and misses the mark on a counter. Whittaker chops at his lead leg and comes over the top with a right hand, and he splits the guard with a left. The former champ leans back from a head kick, and he evades a looping left hook that follows. Whittaker doubles up on the jab and intercepts a kick to crack the South African with a left hand. The jab from Whittaker disrupts the oncoming Du Plessis, and he checks a leg kick. Du Plessis has another kick checked, and he takes an awkward step back. Whittaker punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Du Plessis defends with a guillotine choke as he falls to his back. Whittaker steps to the left side to easily shake off the choke, and he looks to establish top position. Du Plessis fights his way back to his feet with the wall behind him, and he fires out a front kick that misses the mark. Whittaker reaches him with a right hand, and he gets surprised with a check right hook. Whittaker flicks out a few jabs, and he swings a left and a low kick. Du Plessis chains a few punches together to make Whittaker bounce off the cage wall, and Whittaker ricochets off of it to get his own strikes off. Du Plessis times a knee up the middle when Whittaker ducks down, and he kicks right into Whittaker’s shin. Whittaker connects with a few left hands to mark up Du Plessis’ nose, and he absorbs a flush calf kick. The two crash together, and Du Plessis grabs hold of the former champ with a head lock and throws Whittaker to the floor. Du Plessis threatens with a potential brabo choke, and he releases the grip to slash down with an elbow that rips open a cut on Whittaker’s temple. Du Plessis passes guard with 20 seconds to go, and he sets up another brabo choke with seconds to go. When that fails, Du Plessis postures up and lays into Whittaker with punches and elbows to put an exclamation point on the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center to open up the second round with a glove touch, and Whittaker is ready to get his jab going early. When Du Plessis kicks low, Whittaker throws high with a left hand and a head kick. Whittaker snaps the head back with a jab, shutting down the offense mid-swing from Du Plessis. Whittaker blocks a pair of speedy punches, and he stomps down with a kick to the knee. The two come together and Whittaker raps his man on the chin with a right hand. Whittaker absorbs a jab and responds with two back, and he chains it into an overhand right. Du Plessis walks into a left hook, and he has one more leg kick checked. Whittaker reaches his man with a head kick, and he takes a body kick right back. Whittaker slings a left hook and a calf kick, and he leans back from the counters that buzz past his beard. Whittaker springs in with two lefts and gets away before a counter can find the target. Du Plessis reaches out with a straight right hand that frazzles the former champ, who drops down to his knees in rough shape. Du Plessis is surprised at his handiwork, and he does not capitalize immediately. When Whittaker wobbles back to his feet, Du Plessis is on him now. “Stillknocks” drills Whittaker with a long series of punches to the body and head, and it is a right to the body that puts Whittaker firmly in the danger zone. Whittaker collapses to a knee, and Du Plessis swarms him with a ferocious combination that pummels “Bobby Knuckles” and puts him away once and for good. This is an enormous upset, and a phenomenal performance for the immediate title challenger. The victory is so stunning that champ Adesanya approaches UFC President Dana White to request an in-cage challenge. The UFC strikes while the iron is hot, stating that Du Plessis will indeed challenge Adesanya for the belt in Sydney in a few months. When they come together in the cage, things do not go well, as Adesanya hurls racial epithets and tries to draw a reaction out of his prospective opponent and “African brother.” Adesanya shouts about Du Plessis’ African DNA, and commentator Joe Rogan is just along for the ride at this point. The fighters jaw at one another until the promotion decides to move on, and the two are separated. This awkward exchange does not, however, take away from the accomplishment of Du Plessis, who put an incredibly durable Whittaker away with style points.
The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Robert Whittaker R2 2:23 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.
Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.
Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.
James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.
Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.
Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 74 of 166 | 44% | 74 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 33 of 116 | 28% | 38 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 22 of 56 | 39% | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 10 of 45 | 22% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 74 of 166 | 44% | 49 of 138 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 19 | 72 of 163 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 33 of 116 | 28% | 15 of 94 | 7 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 22 of 56 | 39% | 15 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 14 of 41 | 34% | 6 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 53 | 47% | 17 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 10 of 45 | 22% | 4 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 27 of 57 | 47% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 9 of 30 | 30% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-230), Vettori (+195)
Round 1
Even though these two middleweights are in the top three or four of their division, this match between former champ Whittaker (23-6, 14-4 UFC) and fiery ex-title challenger Vettori (18-5-1, 8-3-1 UFC) may be little more than a stay-busy fight as long as Israel Adesanya holds the title. These two top contenders are taking it quite seriously, and so is referee Jason Herzog. There is no interest in a glove touch, as these two would rather get right to the action. Whittaker lands first with a lunging low kick, and he connects with another right after to the same spot. Vettori crashes in to engage, but Whittaker is able to dodge them all. Whittaker scores a low kick and escapes the counters that fly, and he is able to beat Vettori to the punch in a few exchanges. Vettori loads up on a heavy inside leg kick as he gets cracked with an overhand right, and Whittaker reaches him with a left hand when they settle. Whittaker catches the Italian coming in with a swatting left, and he flusters Vettori with his movement. Vettori snakes in a left hand over the top, and Whittaker leans back as another is aimed at his jaw. Vettori times a dipping Whittaker with a sharp left, only to get popped with a swiping right hook. “Bobby Knuckles” stabs breadbasket with the toes with a front kick, forcing Vettori to shoot in, and Whittaker easily turns him around and separates. They both paw at one another with single strikes, and Vettori loads up on a body kick. Whittaker secures two left hands, and he absorbs a body kick so that he can snap out a right hand. Vettori ignores a jab to step in with a knee, and the horn sounds to end the close round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the middle, and Whittaker lands the first blow with a stomping kick to the knee. He follows it with a kick to the ribs, and he hops back when Vettori tosses out a right hand. Whittaker fires a high kick that makes him fall over before it can reach Vettori, but he climbs back up with no issue. Whittaker leans back as a head kick soars past him, and he springs away when Vettori gives chase with a few punches. Vettori clinches up the former champ and pushes him to the wall, and Whittaker frames him off and gets back to the middle of the Octagon. “The Italian Dream” dreams up a head kick, but it floats past Whittaker. Whittaker then responds with a head kick, and as it skims off the head, he connects with a follow-up right hand that stuns Vettori. Whittaker puts a front kick up to split the guard, and Vettori gives one jab back in response. The punches from Vettori are out of range, and Whittaker is able to close the distance and pop him in the chops and get out of the way before a counter comes. Whittaker launches another head kick, and as it gets blocked, he pounds a right hand on the chin. Vettori blocks another head kick, but it gets through the guard and he is wobbled. Whittaker does not let things go, instead staying measured and allowing Vettori to hit air. Whittaker pushes out a right hand down the pipe, and he sneaks up a speedy head kick that careens off the block. Vettori appears to have his legs beneath him again, but he cannot seem to connect with any meaningful offense. Whittaker bullies him back with punches off the arms, and he nails Vettori with a right hand and a head kick. The Italian bounces off the fence and right into a fist of “Bobby Knuckles,” and Whittaker is in his element. When Vettori comes forward, Whittaker chops a side kick on the knee that hyperextends it for his foe. Whittaker drills his man with a straight right hand, and the horn sounds. As it does, Vettori limps back to his corner, possibly compromised from the leg strikes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 3
Vettori is motivated going into Round 3, with a higher pace, but he still cannot consistently find the mark. Whittaker plants the ball of his foot on Vettori’s body several times, and he stands there a little too long, allowing Vettori to score a few punches. Vettori gives chase as Whittaker moves quickly, and he tries for a high kick only to get caught on the way up with a right hand. Vettori walks through a punch so that he can pound a left hand on the chin, and the responsive strike from the former champ opens a cut on Vettori’s left cheek. Whittaker jabs and fires off a head kick, and Vettori smiles but he is hurt. Whittaker jumps forward with a right hand, and he snaps the head back with another. Whittaker swings a high kick that ends up kneeing Vettori on the top of the head, and Vettori’s eyes go wide but he remains on his feet. Vettori kicks low, only to get it checked, and Whittaker replies with one that lands. “Bobby Knuckles” plants a right hand on the cheek, knocking Vettori back and making Vettori check himself. Vettori gathers steam and looses a head kick, and Whittaker leans back and watches it soar past him. Vettori attempts a takedown entry, and Whittaker tosses him aside and busts him in the face with a right hand. Whittaker side kicks the knee and then uses his other leg to belt Vettori upside the head, and Vettori is guessing and eating shots without any hope of response. As Vettori plans on defending a head kick, Whittaker shoots in low and takes him down to make a point. Vettori sits up and turns to his knees, and Herzog informs Whittaker that his foe is grounded. Whittaker elects instead to uppercut Vettori a few times, before Vettori climbs back up to his feet. Vettori looses a head kick, and Whittaker responds with three that land time and again. The bell sounds to end the 15-minute showcase in striking, with Whittaker putting on a master class.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (30-27 Whittaker)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (30-27 Whittaker)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (30-27 Whittaker)
The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.
Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.
The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.
Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 79 of 169 | 46% | 98 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 59 of 136 | 43% | 74 of 151 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 79 of 169 | 46% | 36 of 108 | 14 of 23 | 29 of 38 | 77 of 167 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 59 of 136 | 43% | 38 of 105 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 20 | 54 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 18 of 34 | 52% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 16 of 41 | 39% | 9 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 33 | 36% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 33 | 51% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 16 of 35 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 13 of 22 | 59% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.
Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.
Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.
Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.
Reinier de Ridder - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 57 of 98 | 58% | 71 of 112 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 55 of 141 | 39% | 111 of 199 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 19 of 51 | 37% | 30 of 62 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 23 of 50 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 25 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 58 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 57 of 98 | 58% | 32 of 65 | 9 of 16 | 16 of 17 | 55 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 55 of 141 | 39% | 37 of 117 | 10 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 53 of 139 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 24 of 42 | 57% | 14 of 26 | 3 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 19 of 51 | 37% | 9 of 37 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 14 of 25 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 19 of 31 | 61% | 12 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 19 of 47 | 40% | 16 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo points out that Caio is a slick grappler with improving striking, while RDR is a known quitter who quit on the stool in his last fight. He acknowledges RDR's size and grappling ability but believes Caio is too smart and mobile to be brute forced. He also notes the fight is 15 minutes, which might favor RDR, but ultimately cannot pick a two-time quitter.
Big Brady picks Caio Borralho over Reinier de Ridder. He notes de Ridder had severe health issues and gassed badly in his last fight against Brendan Allen, unable to get up between rounds. Borralho is the better striker and has solid wrestling and takedown defense. Brady expects de Ridder to win the first round but fade, allowing Borralho to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.
Cody also picks Borralho, highlighting his excellent jab, durability, and cardio. He criticizes de Ridder's weight cut, age, and reliance on a step-in knee that works best against orthodox fighters. He expects Borralho to win by decision, possibly via a straight left down the middle.
Connor picks Borralho but with hesitation. He notes that Borralho's low output and choosy striking could be exploited by de Ridder's relentless pressure, but de Ridder lacks the combination striking to punish Borralho's flaws. Connor worries about Borralho's positional complacency in the clinch and on the ground, and de Ridder's ability to take him down and control him, as seen in the Brendan Allen fight. However, he ultimately trusts Borralho's defensive instincts.
Daniel Vreeland picks Caio Borralho but is hesitant due to the steep odds (-275). He believes Borralho's Damen Mia black belt jiu-jitsu can neutralize de Ridder's grappling, and he favors Borralho's technical striking. However, he notes that Borralho doesn't dominate opponents and that de Ridder could surprise after a poor performance. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and would not lay the juice.
The host acknowledges Borralho is better everywhere technically, with superior striking defense and takedown defense (77%), and expects him to win. However, he sees no value at the current odds (1.35 / -285) as Borralho's implied probability of 74% is too high to justify a bet. He also dislikes de Ridder, calling him sloppy and low-level, but passes on the fight entirely.
James favors Caio Borralho due to his superior striking, better cardio, and ability to hang with de Ridder in grappling. He points out de Ridder's questionable cardio and quitting in his last fight, while Borralho is more energy-efficient. James believes Borralho can hurt de Ridder on the feet and potentially get a finish, especially as de Ridder tires. He also notes Borralho's grappling success against Brendan Allen in a karate combat match, suggesting he can reverse or neutralize de Ridder's takedowns.
Borralho is well-rounded and can stop de Ridder's grappling. He is a better striker and should outpoint de Ridder over five rounds. De Ridder has a history of quitting when pressured. Borralho by decision is likely, and he's a solid parlay piece.
Paul picks Borralho, citing his durability, improved striking, and poor matchup for de Ridder. He notes de Ridder's body shutdown in the Allen fight and his awkward style. He expects Borralho to win by decision, possibly hitting the over 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, believing his grappling will overwhelm Borralho. He notes de Ridder's success against Brendan Allen and his relentless chain wrestling. He expects de Ridder to win a decision, possibly losing the third round due to cardio.
Zane also picks Borralho but with reservations. He notes that de Ridder's pressure could overwhelm Borralho if he hasn't prepared properly, and that Borralho's out-fighting style may not hold up against relentless pressure. Zane points out that de Ridder's game is to crash into opponents and take them down, which could exploit Borralho's tendency to get complacent in the clinch. He sticks with his pick but acknowledges the uncertainty.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 61 of 72 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 7:05 |
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 97 of 134 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 2 | 11:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 40 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:04 |
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:45 | |
| 3 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:26 | |
| 4 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 37 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 9 of 13 | 69% | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Brendan Allen | 22 of 37 | 59% | 19 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Brendan Allen | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Reinier de Ridder | 5 of 6 | 83% | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brendan Allen | 12 of 18 | 66% | 11 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 13 | |
| 3 | Reinier de Ridder | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brendan Allen | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | |
| 4 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brendan Allen | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: de Ridder (-200); Allen (+170)
Round 1
Although not born in the Great White North, late replacement Allen (25-7, 13-4 UFC) will nevertheless be hoisting the flag covered by a red maple leaf in honor of his grandparents. He will serve as a fairly significant betting underdog as he takes on submission magician de Ridder (21-2, 4-0 UFC), even though he too is quite a grappler in his own right. What could be a delight on the ground or a wild one on the feet will have five rounds to air out, and referee Jason Herzog brings the 185-pounders to the center of the cage to issue their final instructions. They touch gloves respectfully. It’s on with the show.
De Ridder opens with a low kick and a takedown shot, and Allen stonewalls him immediately and knees him in the chest. They both wrangle one another around in the subsequent clinch while spamming knee strikes, and Allen shoves the Dutchman to the fence. De Ridder deftly hits a trip and lands in full mount, putting Allen in a precarious position less than one minute in. “The Dutch Knight” wraps up an arm-triangle choke from mount that he uses to smother his opponent. Allen stays calm and composed while a roughly 200-pound man is partially using a Mother’s Milk submission on him, and he turns and almost gives his arm up. De Ridder thinks about going after it, but he instead allows Allen to keep twisting so he can secure the back from the Louisiana native.
De Ridder wraps up the body triangle and has Allen leaning on him, so he torques himself to have Allen flat and stuck hand-fighting. While Allen fights off the grip, De Ridder makes his life miserable and lets Allen keep twisting to put him flat on his belly. Allen gets to his knees with the body lock in place, and he tries to drag himself towards the fencing but begins to take shots to the ear from the Dutch fighter. De Ridder rolls and grabs hold of the neck, and Allen, a rear-naked choke specialist, is fully capable at the moment of defending from the various directions. De Ridder clings to the shoulder when Allen almost shakes him off, and he fastens an arm around the chin just to restrict the breathing. De Ridder flattens Allen out for a second and stars bludgeoning him with punches to the side and back of the head, and Herzog is telling him to knock it off but little more. Allen twists his way out and ignores an armbar setup to turn De Ridder over, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 2
The athletes get to the second stanza, and Allen is the one to push the pace. In doing so, he walks into a punch and three body kicks. Allen points at his opponent and spins at him with an elbow, closing the distance to hurl a couple short strikes after it. De Ridder welcomes this, snatching Allen up and pressing him to the wire. De Ridder drives knees to the midsection when not level changing, and he drops down to his knees to go for a double-leg takedown. Allen’s defense holds up on this effort, so de Ridder transitions to an outside trip that he uses to drag Allen to the floor. De Ridder sits on top and pops him with his shoulder a few times, completely nullifying “All In” and making him have to fight off everything. De Ridder imposes his weight on Allen’s back, pushing off the fence to drag them down, and Allen slides out and assumes top control with a sneaky reversal.
Allen connects with short strikes including a few slashing elbows, grinding his forehead down to exude as much pressure as he can muster to shut down the Dutchman. Allen hammers his opponent with elbows, and de Ridder rolls to threaten with an armbar using his offensive guard. Allen breaks through the tries and steps over through to the side so that he can drum down his own attacks. De Ridder looks for an armbar trap while Allen is hacking at him, and Allen stays smart and keeps his strikes tight and compact to not open himself up for anything. De Ridder abandons it and rolls over to his knees, only for Allen to put him back on his back. The Dutch fighter puts his legs up and to the side of the head in hopes of catching Allen unaware, even trying for an armbar before even getting hold of Allen’s limb, and Allen laughs it off and hits de Ridder with ground-and-pound until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 3
Allen goes right after his opponent to get started, pitching a body kick at the Dutch fighter who appears to be slowing. De Ridder punches his way into a takedown shot, and Allen runs across the cage with de Ridder behind him and is dragged to the floor. De Ridder clings onto the back and tries to lace up a body triangle, and Allen turns through it until he doesn’t. De Ridder claims back control, and he starts hunting for a choke. Allen punches him behind his own head, and de Ridder appears to have some damage around his right eye that is leaking blood down his cheek. Allen turns all the way through to wind up on top, and de Ridder clings to an arm-triangle choke that he does not get. Allen opens up the guard with elbows, and de Ridder hunts for an armbar that is nowhere near close to finding.
De Ridder does manage to turn over by threatening with his offensive guard, although Allen welcomes this by opening up with power punches to the side of the dome. De Ridder rolls to his back, and Allen lays into him with punishing punches and eviscerating elbows. Blood starts to pool around de Ridder’s eye sockets, and Allen grinds his elbow on the face and keeps doing damage. De Ridder desperately throws up his legs to hook in an inverted triangle choke, and Allen does not appear concerned as he drops down a few hammerfists and slips his head out. The round over, de Ridder is on the ground for quite some time. Herzog asks him if he can get up, and eventually, he stands, but was precariously close to being called out for not getting back to his stool.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 4
The physician checks on de Ridder between rounds, who is so visibly fatigued he almost cannot stand up. De Ridder says he is ok, so the fight continues and the championship rounds are here. Allen, knowing that de Ridder’s goose is likely cooked, sprints at his wiped opponent and completes one of the easiest double-leg takedowns he has ever landed against a high-level adversary. De Ridder feebly offers a submission setup from his back, and Allen punches him out of it. Herzog tells Allen to keep it clean, as Allen is drilling de Ridder in the side of the head with his fists and elbows. A hematoma has formed on the right temple of the exhausted Dutchman, and Allen slowly, methodically drums on him with ground-and-pound. Allen resides in de Ridder’s guard, working him over until Herzog tells him to be more active.
This spurs de Ridder, of the two, to offer up some resistance in the form of an armbar. Allen lets de Ridder twist and turn, clubbing him with ground strikes that further make this day the worst for de Ridder in quite some time. The damage is not particularly frightening, but Allen has become a steamroller completely taking all of the energy reserves out of the man on bottom. Allen smothers and grinds, making sure that de Ridder has no room for escape and no space to get something off. Allen stands up, and de Ridder does not. Herzog tells the corner to get away, as they cannot help him back up. De Ridder manages to stand. It is a moral victory, him merely standing up and walking to his stool, as he has nothing left to offer. Rather than send their man out for another five-minute slow cooking, the Dutchman's corner throws in the towel on his behalf. The fight is over, and Allen has prevailed by technical knockout as a late replacement. Allen claimed he wanted to break his opponent, and by definition, he did just that.
In his post-fight interview, Allen first requests a moment of silence for his fallen former coach, "Duke" Roufus, who passed away yesterday. Even after 20 minutes of grueling combat, Allen appears fairly fresh. The skillful middleweight issues three callouts, covering all his bases: Khamzat Chimaev, or if not him, Dricus du Plessis. If for some reason both turn him down, he asks for a rematch with Sean Strickland as the two toed the line about five years ago at 195 pounds. Should any of those happen, we will be here for it. Additionally, UFC 321 is next weekend, with the heavyweight throne on the line. We will absolutely be there for that one, which starts at 10 a.m. ET, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Reinier de Ridder R4 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
Angelo is confident Reinier de Ridder wins, citing his size, grappling, and durability. He notes de Ridder's impressive performances against Whittaker, Bo Nickal, and Cannonier. He believes Brendan Allen will fade, similar to his fight against Anthony Hernandez, and that Allen's camp change is a disadvantage.
Big Brady acknowledges de Ridder's unorthodox striking but highlights his size, power, and dangerous knees. He thinks de Ridder has better cardio than Allen on short notice and is more dangerous in both striking and grappling. He predicts de Ridder knocks out Allen in the second round.
Cody picks de Ridder, citing his size, physicality, and excellent jiu-jitsu. He notes de Ridder's funky striking and ability to tax opponents with cage control, as seen in the Whittaker fight. He believes Brendan Allen's cardio issues and short notice will be exploited over five rounds, leading to a late stoppage or decision.
Connor leans toward de Ridder but acknowledges Allen's chances. He notes that Allen is well-rounded and could be competitive if he pushes forward and stays confident. However, he thinks Allen is likely to grapple with de Ridder, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor also mentions that de Ridder is defensively flawed and could be knocked out by a big shot.
James sees similarities between de Ridder and Dricus du Plessis, noting that de Ridder's unorthodox style, including a devastating step-in knee and judo trips, makes him difficult to prepare for. He believes Brendan Allen will start well but fade due to short notice and cardio issues, with de Ridder's pressure and grappling taking over in later rounds. James predicts a finish in rounds 3 or 4.
The host thinks de Ridder will utilize his aggressiveness to keep Allen on the back foot and mix in wrestling. He believes Allen's submission defense will be good enough to avoid a finish, but unless the short notice fight causes his gas tank to fail, de Ridder will keep top pressure and control to win on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing de Ridder's size and grappling pressure. He highlights Brendan Allen's tendency to fade in later rounds, as seen against Vettori and Curtis, and believes de Ridder's full camp and five-round experience will be decisive. He expects de Ridder to win by late stoppage or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder over Brendan Allen. He references de Ridder's performance against Whittaker and his body knees. He believes Allen is stationary and will be vulnerable to body knees, leading to a submission or TKO. He predicts de Ridder will hurt Allen with a knee to the body and finish with a submission in round two or three.
Zane picks de Ridder, citing his aggression and ability to finish. He notes that de Ridder is more aggressive and looks to finish, while Allen tends to have close fights against composed opponents. Zane believes de Ridder's size and ability to reverse positions will be key, and that Allen's attack-focused grappling may lead to losing positions.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 66 of 142 | 46% | 70 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 67 of 145 | 46% | 192 of 282 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 29 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 37 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 73 of 83 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 66 of 142 | 46% | 62 of 135 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 51 of 123 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 67 of 145 | 46% | 41 of 105 | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 54 of 128 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 34 | 58% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 15 of 35 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 9 of 27 | 33% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 16 of 38 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 28 | 71% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 6 of 22 | 27% | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 11 of 31 | 35% | 9 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-150); de Ridder (+120)
Round 1
There is one more fight on the docket today, and it should be a good one. Former champ Whittaker (26-8, 17-6 UFC), dead set on one final run at the middleweight throne, will have to get through de Ridder (20-2, 3-0 UFC) to start it off. This interesting stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Marc Goddard, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue instructions and elicit a glove touch. They touch gloves. It’s time for some action.
De Ridder strikes first with an awkward front kick, and he turns to the side to avoid the Whittaker blitz. Whittaker throws a kick that is caught, and he bounces off his knees on the floor and then drives home a few short uppercuts on the inside before getting his leg back. De Ridder hangs on to Whittaker in the tie-up, and an oddly angled stalemate ensues with both men not willing to make a mistake. “RDR” plants a couple knees to the body to force Whittaker to push him away, and Whittaker resets and lunges and tags the Dutchman with a one-two. The punches from Whittaker cause some damage on the inside corner of de Ridder’s left eye, and he targets the same spot with long, sharp jabs. “RDR” fails badly on a takedown shot, with Whittaker easily staving off the attempt and lashing out with a leaping left hook. Whittaker stays in the center of the cage, looking for his left hand.
Whittaker connects with a left and a right on the underdog, and he clips him a second time and marks his nose up. De Ridder attempts a kick, and Whittaker swats it away and backs him off with long punches. A labored shot from “RDR” is easily stuffed, and he follows it with a front kick. Whittaker shuts him down, taking a knee as he circles away that slow him enough to allow de Ridder to grab hold of him. Whittaker breaks free with 90 seconds to go, where his jab off the temple rattles de Ridder. De Ridder responds with a head kick that is blocked in time. Whittaker’s lunging left hands reach the target more often than not, and his follow-up right hand is money. When “RDR” commits to a kick, Whittaker tags him with a right hand to stop it from going anywhere. De Ridder steps in with two big knees, and Whittaker retaliates by wrapping a left hand around his head. Whittaker catches his man at the end of a right hand, and he blocks two front kicks as the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 2
Whittaker comes out of his corner with his hands by his waist, looking for ways to dart in. He sneaks in a long left, and when countered, he slips and recovers. De Ridder whiffs on a left hook, with Whittaker able to back him away with a check left hook. Whittaker tries to catch him on the other side with a kick, and when that misses, he jabs and is ready to stuff the takedown that comes. They crash together, and de Ridder takes the worst of an uppercut that spins him around. Whittaker crowds the Dutchman, picking his shots carefully and not staying in the same place long to get caught. De Ridder does wing a left hand at him that partially lands, and Whittaker is quick to move and sway. Whittaker gets off a left up top as “RDR” attacks him with a one-two, and he allows de Ridder to approach him and go for a knee so he can fire off a right hand. De Ridder jabs his way forward, and Whittaker ducks and cracks him with a right hand.
De Ridder stabs out a right hand and plants his knee on Whittaker’s chest, and Whittaker responds with a left hook. De Ridder nails his foe with another knee up the middle, with his momentum carrying him into a successful takedown. “RDR” searches for a submission quickly, and Whittaker recovers to guard and uses butterfly hooks to get enough space to get out. De Ridder drops down a number of left hands on the bloodying nose of his opponent, all while imposing his weight on top and getting to half guard. Whittaker recovers back to guard, moving and swaying to evade the shots from above. De Ridder elbows his foe in the stomach, and he jams Whittaker up with an elbow on the face as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 3
Whittaker bounces around to start off the round, looping a left hand partially around the raised guard to start. “RDR” fakes a takedown shot and nails the former champ with a knee, and his second knee gets Whittaker’s attention and drives him back. Whittaker is against the ropes, figuratively speaking, and he unloads a mighty right hand in response that sends de Ridder crashing to the floor. Whittaker hovers over the Dutch fighter, blasting him with ferocious ground-and-pound as Goddard watches on closely. De Ridder manages to work his way to his feet, where he initiates a clinch and leans on Whittaker to catch their breath. Whittaker wants out of the tie-up, countering a knee with an overhand right. The shot from the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” fails, with Whittaker able to stop this attempt and reply with a one-two. De Ridder replies in kind. Whittaker tags de Ridder coming in with a right, and both men are wearing it and sucking wind at the midpoint of the third round.
Whittaker comes up just short of his right hand, and de Ridder tackles him to the floor with relative ease. De Ridder starts smothering as he slowly moves into half guard, keeping his weight down on the former champ to force him to remain flat on his back. De Ridder pops over to side control, and Whittaker turns to pull him back to half guard. Whittaker nearly scrambles well enough to escape, but de Ridder’s top control prevents him from getting out. De Ridder lowers himself down to set up a brabo choke, looping his arm under the armpit and letting it go when Whittaker is wise to it. De Ridder holds on, grinding his elbow down but not striking with much. De Ridder sits on top to lower a few elbows down, and it will be interesting to see if the ground control of “RDR” swayed judges to award it in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 4
Reaching the championship rounds, it is de Ridder who starts off pushing the pace. Whittaker stabs out a left hand while “RDR” steps in with a knee, using the forward movement to tie Whittaker up. De Ridder attempts and fails to complete a body lock takedown, setting for leaning against the former champ. Whittaker bails out of it and puts a one-two on the chin, and his right hand intercepts a step-in knee from his opponent. De Ridder pursues the clinch again, and Whittaker hand-fights and absorbs a single knee to the gut before getting out. De Ridder shoots from a wide berth, and Whittaker stuffs it, but de Ridder is once more clinging to him. De Ridder winds up to bop the Aussie on the nose with a shoulder strike, and he replicates it but sacrifice throws himself to the floor. Whittaker stands back rather than dealing with the grappler in his element.
Whittaker dances out of the way of long jabs and knees, popping de Ridder with a solid left hand. Both men score single power punches until de Ridder walks Whittaker to the fence to force him to carry his weight. When Whittaker escapes, he barely is able to slide past a head kick. De Ridder flicks out a jab, and he fakes a kick and lands another. Whittaker retaliates with a few punches down the middle, and the big left hand that lands on him does not budge him. Whittaker bounces off the fence and looks for a left hook, and it is de Ridder who hits him harder with a stern knee. De Ridder wings a right hand that stumbles the former champ, and he throws a follow-up so hard that he nearly falls over. Whittaker reaches out with a few inaccurate punches, ending the round by catching de Ridder with a short right hand.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 5
It could be all tied up going into the fifth frame, and Whittaker appears the fresher of the two. He springs into action behind long, rangy jabs. By pouncing in and out, Whittaker is able to get away from most counters. De Ridder manages to get him back with a left hand, but Whittaker scores several more and fights out of a single. Whittaker ducks down and cracks de Ridder with a right hand, and de Ridder ties him up and pushes him to the wire. Whittaker tries hard to escape, not allowing de Ridder to take him down, but he otherwise eats short strikes that are counting. Whittaker breaks off and watches a high knee go past him, but de Ridder uses this to close the distance. Whittaker again gets out, and he thinks about a kick but does not have enough in the tank. He does lunge forward with a left, and “RDR” retorts with a trip that Whittaker is able to bounce down and up to recover. Whittaker elbows his man to break away.
The former champ sticks jabs in his foe’s face, and de Ridder goes back for the clinch. A knee from “RDR” does land to the side, and after a brief stalemate, Whittaker fights out of it and rips a right hand to the midsection. Whittaker goes to the same spot again, and de Ridder bops him with a few jabs and drills him with a right hand. De Ridder uses a knee to close the distance so he can tie the ex-champion up, and the fans do not love the approach of the Dutch fighter. Whittaker stands his man up by stopping a takedown and clipping him with a right hand. De Ridder reaches down for a takedown, partially lands a knee and backs up to the wall. “Bobby Knuckles” kicks his man in the face, and de Ridder ties him up. Whittaker is desperate to get out of this, even trying to catch a knee to turn out. He is stuck against the fencing until time has elapsed, and it could go either way.
Having won against one of the biggest names in the division, de Ridder has one name in mind: champ Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” will be squaring off against Khamzat Chimaev in a few weeks, so his dance card is full. When “RDR” does fight again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (48-47 Whittaker)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder (48-47 de Ridder)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder (48-47 de Ridder)
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Robert Whittaker via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.
Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 1 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 91 of 104 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 24 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 43 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 | |
| 2 | Reinier de Ridder | 1 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 48 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 22 of 32 | 68% | 9 of 18 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Bo Nickal | 8 of 21 | 38% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 14 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Bo Nickal | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Reinier de Ridder | 17 of 22 | 77% | 7 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Bo Nickal | 6 of 15 | 40% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: ODDS: Nickal (-325), de Ridder (+260)
Round 1
The co-main event of UFC on ESPN 67 features a couple of middleweight ground specialists who have yet to suffer defeat in the Octagon, but the similarities end there, as former ONE two-division champ de Ridder will pit his Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops against Nickal, perhaps the most accomplished amateur wrestler ever to cross over to mixed martial arts this early in his athletic prime. Something’s got to give, and Mike Beltran will be charged with keeping things legal. Both fighters come out in southpaw stance, and Nickal wastes no time in clinching and driving the taller man to the cage. After some pummeling for position, but no serious takedown attempts by either man, they break things off and move away from the fence. It’s “The Dutch Knight” who initiates the next clinch, appearing to contemplate a takedown of his own, but Nickal spins him against the fence. De Ridder reverses him again and throws a couple of short punches to the body. Nickal drops for a single-leg, picks the opposite ankle and grounds de Ridder with ease near the base of the fence. As de Ridder begins to stand, Nickal grabs a guillotine, closes his guard and tries to submit the submission specialist. There’s nothing doing there, and Nickal is forced to give up the choke. Worse, he is forced to give up top position to de Ridder, who sets up in half guard. Nickal gets up and de Ridder threatens to take his back. Nickal gets his hips out and uses a double-leg to stand, then ground de Ridder. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 2
De Ridder comes forward fearlessly to open Round 2, throwing a knee up the middle and driving Nickal towards the fence. They clinch and de Ridder uses an overhook to hold the shorter man in place for a couple of left knees to the breadbasket. Nickal hauls de Ridder away from the fence, but de Ridder follows him and nails him with a big knee to the sternum. It takes a few seconds for de Ridder to realize how badly he has his man hurt, but he sticks with what brought him to the dance, driving more knees into the retreating American. Nickal staggers back to the fence and slides to his right as de Ridder follows, pouring on the punishment.
Nickal tries to come off the fence with an overhand left, but it misses badly and de Ridder keeps crushing him as he goes careening all the way across the cage. A final right knee to the jaw melts Nickal, who collapses to all fours at the base of the fence. With Nickal having taken about 20 unanswered strikes and making no move to defend himself, referee Beltran moves in to halt the onslaught.
Reinier de Ridder has taken care of business, putting away one of the UFC’s most highly touted prospects in shockingly one-sided fashion. Time will tell how this result ages, and where these two men’s career tracks diverge from here, but in the moment, this did not even look like the upset it supposedly was.
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Bo Nickal R2 1:53 via TKO (Knees)
Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to de Ridder's size and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges that Nickal is the better wrestler but warns that de Ridder could get the first takedown and win on the ground. He decides not to bet on this fight despite the affordable odds, preferring to watch.
Big Brady is confident in Bo Nickal, expecting a knockout. He praises Nickal's fight IQ in the Paul Craig fight for not grappling with a dangerous submission artist. He notes that de Ridder will struggle to take Nickal down, and Nickal is the better striker with improving skills, better durability, and cardio. De Ridder has gassed out and quit in fights before. Brady predicts Nickal will knock out de Ridder in the second round.
Connor picks Nickal, but with low confidence. He acknowledges that de Ridder is a dangerous grappler with a swarming style, but believes Nickal's superior athleticism and wrestling could shut down de Ridder's game. Connor notes that de Ridder's defensive flaws on the feet make him vulnerable to Nickal's power, and if Nickal can land early, he may finish. However, he admits Nickal's inexperience and poor showing against Craig make this a risky pick.
Many are low on Nickal after the Paul Craig fight, but that was just for live striking experience. Here, he may mix in wrestling to keep de Ridder guessing. I expect Nickal to land a big shot and win by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Nickal's wrestling instincts and speed will be too much for Reinier de Ridder, who he thinks is stationary and vulnerable to straight shots. He notes that de Ridder struggled with Gerald Meerschaert and that Nickal will piece him up on the feet. He predicts Nickal will drop de Ridder early and finish him.
Zane picks de Ridder, drawing parallels to the GM3 fight where a less athletic but more experienced grappler outworked a younger wrestler. He notes that Nickal's lack of experience and poor performance against Paul Craig suggest he may struggle against de Ridder's pressure and scrambling. Zane worries that Nickal will get tired or panic if he can't impose his wrestling, leading to a late submission loss. However, he acknowledges Nickal's higher athletic ceiling could change the outcome.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 27 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 27 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 11 of 13 | 84% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
| Kevin Holland | 12 of 21 | 57% | 11 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 11 of 13 | 84% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
| Kevin Holland | 12 of 21 | 57% | 11 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)
Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.
Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.
Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.
Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.
Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.
The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.
Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 44 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:53 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 1 | 38 of 66 | 57% | 82 of 114 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 3:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:10 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 1 | 28 of 53 | 52% | 33 of 59 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 2 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 35 of 39 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 3 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 14 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 30 of 54 | 55% | 27 of 49 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 38 of 66 | 57% | 19 of 42 | 10 of 13 | 9 of 11 | 34 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 21 of 34 | 61% | 19 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 28 of 53 | 52% | 14 of 34 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 26 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Reinier de Ridder | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 5 of 6 | 83% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-290), Meerschaert (+235)
Round 1
In their combined 54 pro wins, these two co-headlining middleweights have earned 50 finishes. Referee Mike Beltran better buckle up as soon as these two get started, as Meerschaert (37-17, 12-9 UFC) is just as dangerous in the first minute as he is in the last. Ridder (17-2, 0-0 UFC) will be coming over from One Championship, where level of competition and some other policies differ significantly, and it remains to be seen if there are any immediate growing pains. If this hits the ground, hang on tight. The 185ers touch ‘em up, and de Ridder starts out with multiple front kicks. Meerschaert chases after him with a one-two, and de Ridder’s front kick gets plenty of work early. De Ridder awkwardly lunges his way in, and he gets popped with a right hand before backing off. “RDR” chips at the front leg twice before Meerschaert gets his hands on him, with Meerschaert connecting with a series of punches that redden the newcomer’s face up. De Ridder uses a low kick to set up a takedown attempt, scooping up the middleweight submission leader in the UFC and putting him down to the ground. De Ridder passes briefly, but Meerschaert flips him over and fights off a triangle choke setup to allow them both to stand. Meerschaert stabs out a jab, and he rips a left to the ribcage. Meerschaert scores two left hands, and his subsequent right hand draws a funny reaction out of the UFC debutant. Meerschaert checks a body kick and swarms forward with several powerful punches. De Ridder wobbles back, gets clipped with a left hand and ducks down to prevent any further harm. “GM3” shuts down a takedown with ease and slides to the side, and he eats a jab on the way out. A de Ridder low kick gets checked, and he sets up a few punches with a jab and takes a few on the chin before backing off. Meerschaert connects with a solid left hook and jumps guard for a guillotine choke, but de Ridder shucks him out of the way. Meerschaert kicks him off, stands up and deals with a jump knee. Meerschaert stuffs a takedown and sets up a power guillotine, only to use the grip to push off. De Ridder swings wide, has a low kick checked and shoots for a failed entry. Meerschaert drills him with an elbow when fighting of the takedown, and de Ridder pecks at him with distant jabs. Meerschaert gives him one jab back to think about, and de Ridder sits down on a right hand that gets Meerschaert’s attention. Meerschaert closes in and dings him with an uppercut, and he gets sent flying with an elbow and a looping left hand. Before “RDR” can put a stamp on things, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 2
To start off the second round, de Ridder wants to put hands on what he thinks to be a wounded fighter. Meerschaert appears to have his sea legs out him, and he swings back and tags the newcomer a few times. “RDR” walks him down, wraps up a body lock and hits an easy trip. Meerschaert turns to his side as de Ridder hopes to establish to half guard. De Ridder sneaks in an elbow before Meerschaert hand-fights with two-on-one wrist control on the Dutchman’s left arm, and de Ridder uses the opportunity to nearly slide out of danger. De Ridder sets up a choke while on his seat, and Meerschaert pushes him off and unloads with a lengthy punch combination. De Ridder still works his way upright, threaten with a throw and falls over. Meerschaert jumps on top, moving right into half guard and opening up with strikes. A brief arm-triangle choke from the American is flirted with, but Meerschaert bails on it to nail the debuting fighter with an elbow. De Ridder re-fastens his guard before tugging his toes on the fencing, and he pushes Meerschaert to his feet. “GM3” lowers himself back down while smacking de Ridder in the chops with punches. De Ridder fires back, and he lifts a leg up in hopes of hooking up a triangle. Meerschaert is wise to it and shucks it off, and he takes a few punches from “RDR” off his back. De Ridder fishes for an arm, and he uses it to work his way back to his feet. De Ridder turns the tables with a trip, placing the underdog on his back before having to fight out of an armbar. Meerschaert goes for one more submission as the 10-second clapper sounds, and he flips “RDR” over before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Round 3
The middleweights touch ‘em up to get the last round going, and Meerschaert is the one pushing the pace in pursuit of a clinch and possible takedown. De Ridder fights his way off the wall, only for Meerschaert to trip him down to his face. De Ridder stands back up, and Meerschaert shoots for a single that is defended. De Ridder drives a knee to the torso while Meerschaert stands up, and he trips “GM3” up and tosses him to the mat like a side of beef. Meerschaert squirms the right direction and puts de Ridder on the mat, evading a front choke while scurrying as fast as he can to put de Ridder on his back.
De Ridder repositions to full mount, and he locks down an arm-triangle choke in a hurry. Meerschaert defends by answering the telephone, and he quickly finds the submission is a bit too tight for his liking. Rather than get put to sleep, a disappointed Meerschaert taps out twice.
Both exhausted fighters fall to their backs, sucking wind now that the fight is over. De Ridder becomes the first fighter since Jack Hermansson in 2018 to force “GM3” to surrender, introducing himself to his new company in a big way.
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Gerald Meerschaert R3 1:44 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder as the next evolution of Gerald Meerschaert: high-level BJJ with much better takedowns. He notes de Ridder uses his length well and can hang with anyone on the ground. He expects a high-level grappling fight and thinks the UFC matched him up this way on purpose. He will probably bet on de Ridder.
Big Brady goes back and forth but ultimately picks Meerschaert, citing de Ridder's poor cardio and striking. He expects de Ridder to come out strong but fade, allowing Meerschaert to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round submission for Meerschaert.
Cody highlights de Ridder's elite grappling credentials, including a draw with Andre Galvao and a competitive loss to Tye Ruotolo. He believes de Ridder's judo and BJJ black belt will neutralize Meerschaert's submission game, and his striking is good enough to win on the feet. Cody expects de Ridder to pass this barometer test and win, possibly by knockout or decision.
Connor also picks Meerschaert, agreeing that de Ridder's striking is terrible and that Meerschaert can piece him up. He notes the size difference but thinks Meerschaert's boxing will prevail. He also comments that the odds are too wide in favor of de Ridder.
Daniel Vreeland picks Gerald Meerschaert as a dog, citing concerns about Reinier de Ridder's stamina and recent performances, including a knockout loss and a quit job. He notes Meerschaert's durability, awkward striking, and record for most submissions in UFC middleweight history. Vreeland expects a late finish if de Ridder doesn't get an early submission.
Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder to win, but is hesitant due to the wide odds. He notes that de Ridder is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking, while Meerschaert is a submission specialist who could catch him. He believes de Ridder's wrestling and size advantage should allow him to dictate where the fight goes, but acknowledges that Meerschaert is dangerous off his back and could pull off a submission. He also mentions considering a bet on Meerschaert due to the value.
De Ridder's ability to take the back will be key. As his grappling wears on Meerschaert, he should open up a submission or ground-and-pound opportunity and get a finish in his UFC debut.
Paul is not excited about laying -278 on a UFC debutant, but acknowledges de Ridder's experience in big fights and his grappling advantage. He notes that Meerschaert struggles when opponents don't gas and have comparable grappling. Paul thinks de Ridder can win on points or by taking Meerschaert down and controlling him.
The Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his jiu-jitsu advantage and ability to avoid being fraud-checked in grappling. He worries about de Ridder's stand-up but believes his clinch knees and body work will be key. He predicts de Ridder finishes Meerschaert with knees to the body in the second or third round, surviving any guillotine danger.
Zane picks Meerschaert, noting that de Ridder cannot strike at all and has no functional pressure. He thinks Meerschaert can outbox him easily. He also mentions that de Ridder's wins are over regional competition and that Meerschaert is a tough out. He suggests a prop on Meerschaert by decision.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.
Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.
Comments (2)
Great win for Reiner, just throws a knee down the middle to grabbling. Relentless zombie like pressure
Big step up in competition for Reinier but we shall see.
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