UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 0"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
4.39 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.36 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.73 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Reinier de Ridder
2.47 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.36 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
2.56 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Robert Whittaker
Moneyline
Caesars -150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +175
Submission
Unibet +1900
Decision
FanDuel +350
Reinier de Ridder
Moneyline
DraftKings +136
KO/TKO
Unibet +700
Submission
FanDuel +310
Decision
BetRivers +800
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
SCHED vs Nikita Krylov
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 66 of 142 46% 70 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Reinier de Ridder 0 67 of 145 46% 192 of 282 2 of 15 13% 0 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 16 of 38 42% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
3 Robert Whittaker 1 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Reinier de Ridder 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:39
4 Robert Whittaker 0 6 of 22 27% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Reinier de Ridder 0 14 of 24 58% 37 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:56
5 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 18 50% 73 of 83 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 66 of 142 46% 62 of 135 4 of 7 0 of 0 51 of 123 4 of 5 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 67 of 145 46% 41 of 105 26 of 40 0 of 0 54 of 128 9 of 11 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 20 of 34 58% 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 15 of 35 42% 6 of 19 9 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 30 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 9 of 27 33% 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 16 of 38 42% 12 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Robert Whittaker 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 13 1 of 1 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 13 of 30 43% 10 of 24 3 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 4
4 Robert Whittaker 6 of 22 27% 6 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 14 of 24 58% 10 of 18 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 11 of 31 35% 9 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 9 of 18 50% 3 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.

"I'm going to pick him. Low confidence pick here, but I am going to go with Renier."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I like Whitaker here. ... I think he probably does knock out Ditter late in the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.

Odds movement from -190 to -140 suggests line movement, but Connor is surprised de Ridder is only +120, calling it 'basically dead even' and saying 'I don't see it.'
"I'm going to take Robert Whittaker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think Whitaker won't have as much trouble dealing with Ditter in the striking realm. And I think we'll see Whitaker stuff the takedowns of Derritter, keep this fight upright, pick the Ritter apart, and eventually find that finish in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.

Submission, round 3, rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Raina Derida. ... I'm going to say submission victory for Raina Derida. ... third round rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.

"Yeah, it's just not a, it's not a fight that we've ever seen Whitaker lose... I expect it to look like a pretty easy fight for Whitaker."
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Submission (face crank) R1 3:34 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)

Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.

Second leg of villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it misses.
"hamzat is going to be the pick he is the second leg of that villain parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.

first round submission; live bet on Whittaker if fight reaches third round
"I'll go chamaya first round submission I think it's a great live bet spot though if this fight reaches the second and a half uh the round and a half mark the third round I would take a look at …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.

"I'm going with Robert Whitaker as well but I'm looking to live bet after the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"I am going to be a sucker and pick Whitaker."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.

submission (rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke)
"I'm calling either a rear naked choke or a Dar choke finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.

inside the distance
"I think jayv is going to get the W here probably inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.

Whittaker wins by decision or late finish (rounds 4-5)
"I like Whitaker here to pull off the upset"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.

"give me the guy with you know the former champion in this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.

TKO fourth round
"I'm going with Robert Whittaker getting this one done TKO fourth round finishes Chimaev who's gassed out."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.

"I picked wittaker going in so i have to eat a little crow but even picking wittaker my feeling was look wittaker when he loses he absolutely melts down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"Yeah, me too. We're really setting ourselves up."
KO (punches) R1 1:49 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.

No bet due to short notice concerns
"I think rram wins this fight not confident enough to bet on it I wish the odds were wider so I could but I am going to pick rram here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.

"I got to go Whitaker here there's no way I can I can pick against Whitaker it's a show me spot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.

"I gota go with Robbie Knuckles to uh to get a win here but I'm expecting it to be a competitive main event that you're going to be puckered up in because I mov is a first round knockout guy"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.

"I'm gonna go Robert Whitaker here but proceed with caution because again when Fighters are I don't know if I want to call it the Twilight of his career because again he's only 33"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.

No bet placed
"I'm going rram here but I'll be honest I I haven't bet it you I still respect Bobby and you know that short notice and you know five rounds and I haven't eded yet but as a pick I'm going …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.

Aliskerov by decision (dog money)
"I see rram doing the exact same thing I think it goes to decision because I think Rob's tough I think Rob can hang in there I think rro by decision dog money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.

"I can't really back him at this price until he kind of proves against a higher level of competition that he belongs in there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.

"I am going to go with Whitaker I believe in Whitaker here if he loses it will change my entire opinion on MMA so we'll see."
WIN vs Paulo Costa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 95 of 175 54% 95 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 67 of 151 44% 67 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 38 of 62 61% 38 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 27 of 49 55% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Robert Whittaker 0 32 of 55 58% 32 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 26 of 54 48% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 95 of 175 54% 63 of 143 4 of 4 28 of 28 95 of 172 0 of 3 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 67 of 151 44% 39 of 117 8 of 12 20 of 22 67 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 38 of 62 61% 26 of 50 1 of 1 11 of 11 38 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 27 of 49 55% 16 of 38 4 of 4 7 of 7 27 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 32 of 55 58% 20 of 43 3 of 3 9 of 9 32 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 26 of 54 48% 16 of 43 2 of 3 8 of 8 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 25 of 58 43% 17 of 50 0 of 0 8 of 8 25 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 14 of 48 29% 7 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.

"I'm still going to pick Whitaker here I'm probably gonna leave him out of the safety parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.

Whittaker by decision
"give me Robert Whitaker Robert Whitaker by decision this fight doesn't happen probably"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as steamed line)
"Whitaker is going to be the pick for me as well I think he just throws more volume is a little bit more tactical in his approach he has to avoid the bomb but it's like..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.

"I feel like Paulo Costa was never that great... I think Whitaker's gonna beat Costa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.

"I think if he's able to stay away from the big Power that Costa presents he should be able to get up on the judges scorecards and win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.

Whittaker by decision (mentioned as potential prop)
"I just got to go with the better technique the cleaner guy uh to I think just win a decision I don't see him knocking out Paul a Costa but again I think with his footwork in his jab stay …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.

I love this being in the bigger cage by the way that's a huge part of this fight.
"I'm going for Robert Whittaker here... Whitaker speed will shock him and stumble him off balance."
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 74 of 166 44% 74 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 33 of 116 28% 38 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 22 of 56 39% 22 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 14 of 41 34% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 10 of 45 22% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Robert Whittaker 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 9 of 30 30% 11 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 74 of 166 44% 49 of 138 6 of 9 19 of 19 72 of 163 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 33 of 116 28% 15 of 94 7 of 10 11 of 12 33 of 116 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 22 of 56 39% 15 of 48 1 of 2 6 of 6 22 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 14 of 41 34% 6 of 33 5 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 25 of 53 47% 17 of 43 3 of 5 5 of 5 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 10 of 45 22% 4 of 36 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 27 of 57 47% 17 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 8 25 of 54 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 9 of 30 30% 5 of 25 1 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.

Moneyline bet placed at -235; line moved to -300s; likely decision win
"whitaker is an easy pick here he's going to be faster have the far cleaner striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.

"i think whitaker does does win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.

Whittaker wins by decision
"I'd take Robert Whittaker... the over under set 280 I think to the over and yeah I think this thing's going a decision so if you want to try to improve that 210 price tag on Robert Whittaker almost certainly …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.

Fight goes to decision; Vettori by KO at +1200 (mentioned by co-host)
"I'm gonna go Whitaker but I'm just sketched about it because at some point I think that drop-off will come I just don't know when it's gonna be"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.

Whittaker by decision (minus 105)
"Give me Bobby Knuckles via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.

"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly to the dogma of inventory to pull off the upset here... I think marvin vittorio obviously is only three years younger but it's like in terms of like robert whittaker's 31 with city miles."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.

Whittaker wins by decision 30-27
"i think the main problem that vettori has is talent and skill"
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 79 of 169 46% 98 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 59 of 136 43% 74 of 151 4 of 10 40% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
4 Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 16 of 35 45% 19 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
5 Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 22 59% 24 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 10 of 19 52% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 79 of 169 46% 36 of 108 14 of 23 29 of 38 77 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 59 of 136 43% 38 of 105 8 of 11 13 of 20 54 of 130 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 18 of 34 52% 3 of 14 4 of 6 11 of 14 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 9 of 21 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 8 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 16 of 41 39% 9 of 30 0 of 2 7 of 9 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 33 36% 7 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 33 51% 11 of 24 3 of 4 3 of 5 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 28 42% 9 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 5 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 15 of 39 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 6 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 16 of 35 45% 10 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 13 of 22 59% 7 of 14 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 10 of 19 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.

buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for Robert Whittaker
"i like israel adasana to win by decision in a very very competitive fight and i may buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for robert whitaker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Adesanya by late knockout
"i'm going to take honasanya pretty confidently probably my first or second most confident pick of the card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i just don't think i've seen enough from robert whittaker since the first meaning to really leaning his favor"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.

"I still have to go with izzy I design it here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.

Whittaker by decision; value at +225
"i do like bobby knuckles in this spot i think he's a very good bet especially at plus 225 and i don't care what anybody says"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i think it's going to be the same old thing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.

decision
"i'm going with israel desanya"
Reinier de Ridder - Fight History
LOSS vs Caio Borralho
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Caio Borralho 0 57 of 98 58% 71 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Reinier de Ridder 0 55 of 141 39% 111 of 199 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Caio Borralho 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 19 of 51 37% 30 of 62 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:26
2 Caio Borralho 0 14 of 25 56% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Reinier de Ridder 0 17 of 43 39% 23 of 50 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
3 Caio Borralho 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:11
Reinier de Ridder 0 19 of 47 40% 58 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Caio Borralho 57 of 98 58% 32 of 65 9 of 16 16 of 17 55 of 95 0 of 0 2 of 3
Reinier de Ridder 55 of 141 39% 37 of 117 10 of 15 8 of 9 53 of 139 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Caio Borralho 24 of 42 57% 14 of 26 3 of 8 7 of 8 23 of 41 0 of 0 1 of 1
Reinier de Ridder 19 of 51 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 7 of 8 19 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Caio Borralho 14 of 25 56% 6 of 16 2 of 3 6 of 6 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 17 of 43 39% 12 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 1 15 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Caio Borralho 19 of 31 61% 12 of 23 4 of 5 3 of 3 18 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Reinier de Ridder 19 of 47 40% 16 of 43 3 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Angelo points out that Caio is a slick grappler with improving striking, while RDR is a known quitter who quit on the stool in his last fight. He acknowledges RDR's size and grappling ability but believes Caio is too smart and mobile to be brute forced. He also notes the fight is 15 minutes, which might favor RDR, but ultimately cannot pick a two-time quitter.

"Caio is going to be the pick here. How could you pick a known quitter at this point?"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady picks Caio Borralho over Reinier de Ridder. He notes de Ridder had severe health issues and gassed badly in his last fight against Brendan Allen, unable to get up between rounds. Borralho is the better striker and has solid wrestling and takedown defense. Brady expects de Ridder to win the first round but fade, allowing Borralho to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

Borralho by decision
"I think Kyle's going to take over and win the second and third round. Maybe get a late finish, but I'll say Kyle Bow wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Cody also picks Borralho, highlighting his excellent jab, durability, and cardio. He criticizes de Ridder's weight cut, age, and reliance on a step-in knee that works best against orthodox fighters. He expects Borralho to win by decision, possibly via a straight left down the middle.

"I got Kale Barow as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Caio Borralho

Connor picks Borralho but with hesitation. He notes that Borralho's low output and choosy striking could be exploited by de Ridder's relentless pressure, but de Ridder lacks the combination striking to punish Borralho's flaws. Connor worries about Borralho's positional complacency in the clinch and on the ground, and de Ridder's ability to take him down and control him, as seen in the Brendan Allen fight. However, he ultimately trusts Borralho's defensive instincts.

Odds: Borralho opened at -260, now -250; de Ridder opened at +220, now +210. Connor suggests better value on de Ridder than on Oliveira.
"I'm still going to pick Bahaio just because I do not think de Ritter represents the actual downfalls for him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Daniel Vreeland picks Caio Borralho but is hesitant due to the steep odds (-275). He believes Borralho's Damen Mia black belt jiu-jitsu can neutralize de Ridder's grappling, and he favors Borralho's technical striking. However, he notes that Borralho doesn't dominate opponents and that de Ridder could surprise after a poor performance. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and would not lay the juice.

"Pure pick, I'll go with the Damen Mia Black Belt Bohaya. But no way in hell I can lay no minus 275 or minus 300 on him in this spot."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)

The host acknowledges Borralho is better everywhere technically, with superior striking defense and takedown defense (77%), and expects him to win. However, he sees no value at the current odds (1.35 / -285) as Borralho's implied probability of 74% is too high to justify a bet. He also dislikes de Ridder, calling him sloppy and low-level, but passes on the fight entirely.

"Barralho should win, but his odds reflect his advantages, and there's just no value here for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

James favors Caio Borralho due to his superior striking, better cardio, and ability to hang with de Ridder in grappling. He points out de Ridder's questionable cardio and quitting in his last fight, while Borralho is more energy-efficient. James believes Borralho can hurt de Ridder on the feet and potentially get a finish, especially as de Ridder tires. He also notes Borralho's grappling success against Brendan Allen in a karate combat match, suggesting he can reverse or neutralize de Ridder's takedowns.

"I'm picking Kyio to win the fight. I don't know whether he's going to get a knockout decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Borralho is well-rounded and can stop de Ridder's grappling. He is a better striker and should outpoint de Ridder over five rounds. De Ridder has a history of quitting when pressured. Borralho by decision is likely, and he's a solid parlay piece.

Borralho by decision; parlay piece
"I'm going to go Bahalo here. Baja by decision. And I don't mind parlaying him at minus 275 either."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Paul picks Borralho, citing his durability, improved striking, and poor matchup for de Ridder. He notes de Ridder's body shutdown in the Allen fight and his awkward style. He expects Borralho to win by decision, possibly hitting the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"I just don't really see too many paths to victory for Rainer here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, believing his grappling will overwhelm Borralho. He notes de Ridder's success against Brendan Allen and his relentless chain wrestling. He expects de Ridder to win a decision, possibly losing the third round due to cardio.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to go with Raina Derrida getting this one done based on the first two rounds using his grappling."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Caio Borralho

Zane also picks Borralho but with reservations. He notes that de Ridder's pressure could overwhelm Borralho if he hasn't prepared properly, and that Borralho's out-fighting style may not hold up against relentless pressure. Zane points out that de Ridder's game is to crash into opponents and take them down, which could exploit Borralho's tendency to get complacent in the clinch. He sticks with his pick but acknowledges the uncertainty.

Odds: Borralho -250, de Ridder +210.
"I've already picked Bahaio on my podcast, so I'm going to stick with my guns here, but the closer we get, this is one of those match ups where I'm like, do I trust Bahaio against somebody who simply doesn't …"
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
KO R4 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 13 69% 61 of 72 3 of 7 42% 1 0 7:05
Brendan Allen 0 22 of 37 59% 97 of 134 1 of 1 100% 1 2 11:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 3 of 4 75% 40 of 47 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:04
Brendan Allen 0 2 of 2 100% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
2 Reinier de Ridder 0 5 of 6 83% 10 of 12 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:48
Brendan Allen 0 12 of 18 66% 27 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:45
3 Reinier de Ridder 0 1 of 2 50% 4 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:13
Brendan Allen 0 4 of 10 40% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:26
4 Reinier de Ridder 0 0 of 1 0% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brendan Allen 0 4 of 7 57% 37 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 9 of 13 69% 4 of 5 5 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1
Brendan Allen 22 of 37 59% 19 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 8 2 of 2 19 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 3 of 4 75% 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1
Brendan Allen 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Reinier de Ridder 5 of 6 83% 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 12 of 18 66% 11 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 13
3 Reinier de Ridder 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 4 of 10 40% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 7
4 Reinier de Ridder 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: de Ridder (-200); Allen (+170)

Round 1
Although not born in the Great White North, late replacement Allen (25-7, 13-4 UFC) will nevertheless be hoisting the flag covered by a red maple leaf in honor of his grandparents. He will serve as a fairly significant betting underdog as he takes on submission magician de Ridder (21-2, 4-0 UFC), even though he too is quite a grappler in his own right. What could be a delight on the ground or a wild one on the feet will have five rounds to air out, and referee Jason Herzog brings the 185-pounders to the center of the cage to issue their final instructions. They touch gloves respectfully. It’s on with the show.
De Ridder opens with a low kick and a takedown shot, and Allen stonewalls him immediately and knees him in the chest. They both wrangle one another around in the subsequent clinch while spamming knee strikes, and Allen shoves the Dutchman to the fence. De Ridder deftly hits a trip and lands in full mount, putting Allen in a precarious position less than one minute in. “The Dutch Knight” wraps up an arm-triangle choke from mount that he uses to smother his opponent. Allen stays calm and composed while a roughly 200-pound man is partially using a Mother’s Milk submission on him, and he turns and almost gives his arm up. De Ridder thinks about going after it, but he instead allows Allen to keep twisting so he can secure the back from the Louisiana native.
De Ridder wraps up the body triangle and has Allen leaning on him, so he torques himself to have Allen flat and stuck hand-fighting. While Allen fights off the grip, De Ridder makes his life miserable and lets Allen keep twisting to put him flat on his belly. Allen gets to his knees with the body lock in place, and he tries to drag himself towards the fencing but begins to take shots to the ear from the Dutch fighter. De Ridder rolls and grabs hold of the neck, and Allen, a rear-naked choke specialist, is fully capable at the moment of defending from the various directions. De Ridder clings to the shoulder when Allen almost shakes him off, and he fastens an arm around the chin just to restrict the breathing. De Ridder flattens Allen out for a second and stars bludgeoning him with punches to the side and back of the head, and Herzog is telling him to knock it off but little more. Allen twists his way out and ignores an armbar setup to turn De Ridder over, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder

Round 2
The athletes get to the second stanza, and Allen is the one to push the pace. In doing so, he walks into a punch and three body kicks. Allen points at his opponent and spins at him with an elbow, closing the distance to hurl a couple short strikes after it. De Ridder welcomes this, snatching Allen up and pressing him to the wire. De Ridder drives knees to the midsection when not level changing, and he drops down to his knees to go for a double-leg takedown. Allen’s defense holds up on this effort, so de Ridder transitions to an outside trip that he uses to drag Allen to the floor. De Ridder sits on top and pops him with his shoulder a few times, completely nullifying “All In” and making him have to fight off everything. De Ridder imposes his weight on Allen’s back, pushing off the fence to drag them down, and Allen slides out and assumes top control with a sneaky reversal.
Allen connects with short strikes including a few slashing elbows, grinding his forehead down to exude as much pressure as he can muster to shut down the Dutchman. Allen hammers his opponent with elbows, and de Ridder rolls to threaten with an armbar using his offensive guard. Allen breaks through the tries and steps over through to the side so that he can drum down his own attacks. De Ridder looks for an armbar trap while Allen is hacking at him, and Allen stays smart and keeps his strikes tight and compact to not open himself up for anything. De Ridder abandons it and rolls over to his knees, only for Allen to put him back on his back. The Dutch fighter puts his legs up and to the side of the head in hopes of catching Allen unaware, even trying for an armbar before even getting hold of Allen’s limb, and Allen laughs it off and hits de Ridder with ground-and-pound until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 3
Allen goes right after his opponent to get started, pitching a body kick at the Dutch fighter who appears to be slowing. De Ridder punches his way into a takedown shot, and Allen runs across the cage with de Ridder behind him and is dragged to the floor. De Ridder clings onto the back and tries to lace up a body triangle, and Allen turns through it until he doesn’t. De Ridder claims back control, and he starts hunting for a choke. Allen punches him behind his own head, and de Ridder appears to have some damage around his right eye that is leaking blood down his cheek. Allen turns all the way through to wind up on top, and de Ridder clings to an arm-triangle choke that he does not get. Allen opens up the guard with elbows, and de Ridder hunts for an armbar that is nowhere near close to finding.
De Ridder does manage to turn over by threatening with his offensive guard, although Allen welcomes this by opening up with power punches to the side of the dome. De Ridder rolls to his back, and Allen lays into him with punishing punches and eviscerating elbows. Blood starts to pool around de Ridder’s eye sockets, and Allen grinds his elbow on the face and keeps doing damage. De Ridder desperately throws up his legs to hook in an inverted triangle choke, and Allen does not appear concerned as he drops down a few hammerfists and slips his head out. The round over, de Ridder is on the ground for quite some time. Herzog asks him if he can get up, and eventually, he stands, but was precariously close to being called out for not getting back to his stool.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 4
The physician checks on de Ridder between rounds, who is so visibly fatigued he almost cannot stand up. De Ridder says he is ok, so the fight continues and the championship rounds are here. Allen, knowing that de Ridder’s goose is likely cooked, sprints at his wiped opponent and completes one of the easiest double-leg takedowns he has ever landed against a high-level adversary. De Ridder feebly offers a submission setup from his back, and Allen punches him out of it. Herzog tells Allen to keep it clean, as Allen is drilling de Ridder in the side of the head with his fists and elbows. A hematoma has formed on the right temple of the exhausted Dutchman, and Allen slowly, methodically drums on him with ground-and-pound. Allen resides in de Ridder’s guard, working him over until Herzog tells him to be more active.
This spurs de Ridder, of the two, to offer up some resistance in the form of an armbar. Allen lets de Ridder twist and turn, clubbing him with ground strikes that further make this day the worst for de Ridder in quite some time. The damage is not particularly frightening, but Allen has become a steamroller completely taking all of the energy reserves out of the man on bottom. Allen smothers and grinds, making sure that de Ridder has no room for escape and no space to get something off. Allen stands up, and de Ridder does not. Herzog tells the corner to get away, as they cannot help him back up. De Ridder manages to stand. It is a moral victory, him merely standing up and walking to his stool, as he has nothing left to offer. Rather than send their man out for another five-minute slow cooking, the Dutchman's corner throws in the towel on his behalf. The fight is over, and Allen has prevailed by technical knockout as a late replacement. Allen claimed he wanted to break his opponent, and by definition, he did just that.
In his post-fight interview, Allen first requests a moment of silence for his fallen former coach, "Duke" Roufus, who passed away yesterday. Even after 20 minutes of grueling combat, Allen appears fairly fresh. The skillful middleweight issues three callouts, covering all his bases: Khamzat Chimaev, or if not him, Dricus du Plessis. If for some reason both turn him down, he asks for a rematch with Sean Strickland as the two toed the line about five years ago at 195 pounds. Should any of those happen, we will be here for it. Additionally, UFC 321 is next weekend, with the heavyweight throne on the line. We will absolutely be there for that one, which starts at 10 a.m. ET, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen

The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Reinier de Ridder R4 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo is confident Reinier de Ridder wins, citing his size, grappling, and durability. He notes de Ridder's impressive performances against Whittaker, Bo Nickal, and Cannonier. He believes Brendan Allen will fade, similar to his fight against Anthony Hernandez, and that Allen's camp change is a disadvantage.

De Ridder scores high fantasy points
"I think RDR wins this fight. I think he scores a ton of points."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Big Brady acknowledges de Ridder's unorthodox striking but highlights his size, power, and dangerous knees. He thinks de Ridder has better cardio than Allen on short notice and is more dangerous in both striking and grappling. He predicts de Ridder knocks out Allen in the second round.

de Ridder by KO in round 2
"I got to go Derritter. Um, give me Ditter to win this fight. I'll see who he wins this fight by second round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody picks de Ridder, citing his size, physicality, and excellent jiu-jitsu. He notes de Ridder's funky striking and ability to tax opponents with cage control, as seen in the Whittaker fight. He believes Brendan Allen's cardio issues and short notice will be exploited over five rounds, leading to a late stoppage or decision.

"I'm going to lean towards Ren Ditter minus 200. I think it's a little bit deep. I think Brandon Allen poses lots of problems to him, right?"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Connor leans toward de Ridder but acknowledges Allen's chances. He notes that Allen is well-rounded and could be competitive if he pushes forward and stays confident. However, he thinks Allen is likely to grapple with de Ridder, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor also mentions that de Ridder is defensively flawed and could be knocked out by a big shot.

Odds: de Ridder opened at -250, currently -220; Allen opened at +210, currently +185.
"I think there's a, there's a version of this fight, a couple of, you know, key decisions made on either side where Alan could be quite competitive and maybe even put Derrida in trouble."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

James sees similarities between de Ridder and Dricus du Plessis, noting that de Ridder's unorthodox style, including a devastating step-in knee and judo trips, makes him difficult to prepare for. He believes Brendan Allen will start well but fade due to short notice and cardio issues, with de Ridder's pressure and grappling taking over in later rounds. James predicts a finish in rounds 3 or 4.

"I think as the fight plays out, like most DA fights, the Ritter starts to get going. He lands his knees up the middle. He hurts Brendan Allen. Brendan Allen's lack of training camp, four-week notice, starts to take a …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The host thinks de Ridder will utilize his aggressiveness to keep Allen on the back foot and mix in wrestling. He believes Allen's submission defense will be good enough to avoid a finish, but unless the short notice fight causes his gas tank to fail, de Ridder will keep top pressure and control to win on the scorecards.

win by decision
"I think that Ditter will do a good job in terms of utilizing his aggressiveness to keep Allen on the back foot from there."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing de Ridder's size and grappling pressure. He highlights Brendan Allen's tendency to fade in later rounds, as seen against Vettori and Curtis, and believes de Ridder's full camp and five-round experience will be decisive. He expects de Ridder to win by late stoppage or decision.

"I echo most of the same sentiments as you. I haven't been the highest on Rainer Durator, but I also haven't been the highest on Brendan Allen."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder over Brendan Allen. He references de Ridder's performance against Whittaker and his body knees. He believes Allen is stationary and will be vulnerable to body knees, leading to a submission or TKO. He predicts de Ridder will hurt Allen with a knee to the body and finish with a submission in round two or three.

submission win in round two or three
"I'm going to go with Reina De Ridder getting this one done. I think he'll hurt Brendan Allen with a knee to the body, and then he's going to score a submission win or a TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane picks de Ridder, citing his aggression and ability to finish. He notes that de Ridder is more aggressive and looks to finish, while Allen tends to have close fights against composed opponents. Zane believes de Ridder's size and ability to reverse positions will be key, and that Allen's attack-focused grappling may lead to losing positions.

Odds: de Ridder opened at -250, currently -220; Allen opened at +210, currently +185.
"So yeah, I'm going to take the ritter, but it's an interesting fight."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 66 of 142 46% 70 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Reinier de Ridder 0 67 of 145 46% 192 of 282 2 of 15 13% 0 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 16 of 38 42% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
3 Robert Whittaker 1 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Reinier de Ridder 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:39
4 Robert Whittaker 0 6 of 22 27% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Reinier de Ridder 0 14 of 24 58% 37 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:56
5 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 18 50% 73 of 83 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 66 of 142 46% 62 of 135 4 of 7 0 of 0 51 of 123 4 of 5 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 67 of 145 46% 41 of 105 26 of 40 0 of 0 54 of 128 9 of 11 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 20 of 34 58% 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 15 of 35 42% 6 of 19 9 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 30 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 9 of 27 33% 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 16 of 38 42% 12 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Robert Whittaker 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 13 1 of 1 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 13 of 30 43% 10 of 24 3 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 4
4 Robert Whittaker 6 of 22 27% 6 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 14 of 24 58% 10 of 18 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 11 of 31 35% 9 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 9 of 18 50% 3 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.

"I'm going to pick him. Low confidence pick here, but I am going to go with Renier."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I like Whitaker here. ... I think he probably does knock out Ditter late in the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.

Odds movement from -190 to -140 suggests line movement, but Connor is surprised de Ridder is only +120, calling it 'basically dead even' and saying 'I don't see it.'
"I'm going to take Robert Whittaker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think Whitaker won't have as much trouble dealing with Ditter in the striking realm. And I think we'll see Whitaker stuff the takedowns of Derritter, keep this fight upright, pick the Ritter apart, and eventually find that finish in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.

Submission, round 3, rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Raina Derida. ... I'm going to say submission victory for Raina Derida. ... third round rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.

"Yeah, it's just not a, it's not a fight that we've ever seen Whitaker lose... I expect it to look like a pretty easy fight for Whitaker."
WIN vs Bo Nickal
KO R2 1:53 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 1 22 of 32 68% 91 of 104 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Bo Nickal 0 8 of 21 38% 24 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 5 of 10 50% 43 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:52
Bo Nickal 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:00
2 Reinier de Ridder 1 17 of 22 77% 48 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Bo Nickal 0 6 of 15 40% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 22 of 32 68% 9 of 18 13 of 14 0 of 0 7 of 15 15 of 17 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 8 of 21 38% 2 of 13 4 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 14 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Reinier de Ridder 17 of 22 77% 7 of 11 10 of 11 0 of 0 6 of 10 11 of 12 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 6 of 15 40% 1 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3 3 of 10 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: ODDS: Nickal (-325), de Ridder (+260)

Round 1
The co-main event of UFC on ESPN 67 features a couple of middleweight ground specialists who have yet to suffer defeat in the Octagon, but the similarities end there, as former ONE two-division champ de Ridder will pit his Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops against Nickal, perhaps the most accomplished amateur wrestler ever to cross over to mixed martial arts this early in his athletic prime. Something’s got to give, and Mike Beltran will be charged with keeping things legal. Both fighters come out in southpaw stance, and Nickal wastes no time in clinching and driving the taller man to the cage. After some pummeling for position, but no serious takedown attempts by either man, they break things off and move away from the fence. It’s “The Dutch Knight” who initiates the next clinch, appearing to contemplate a takedown of his own, but Nickal spins him against the fence. De Ridder reverses him again and throws a couple of short punches to the body. Nickal drops for a single-leg, picks the opposite ankle and grounds de Ridder with ease near the base of the fence. As de Ridder begins to stand, Nickal grabs a guillotine, closes his guard and tries to submit the submission specialist. There’s nothing doing there, and Nickal is forced to give up the choke. Worse, he is forced to give up top position to de Ridder, who sets up in half guard. Nickal gets up and de Ridder threatens to take his back. Nickal gets his hips out and uses a double-leg to stand, then ground de Ridder. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder

Round 2
De Ridder comes forward fearlessly to open Round 2, throwing a knee up the middle and driving Nickal towards the fence. They clinch and de Ridder uses an overhook to hold the shorter man in place for a couple of left knees to the breadbasket. Nickal hauls de Ridder away from the fence, but de Ridder follows him and nails him with a big knee to the sternum. It takes a few seconds for de Ridder to realize how badly he has his man hurt, but he sticks with what brought him to the dance, driving more knees into the retreating American. Nickal staggers back to the fence and slides to his right as de Ridder follows, pouring on the punishment.
Nickal tries to come off the fence with an overhand left, but it misses badly and de Ridder keeps crushing him as he goes careening all the way across the cage. A final right knee to the jaw melts Nickal, who collapses to all fours at the base of the fence. With Nickal having taken about 20 unanswered strikes and making no move to defend himself, referee Beltran moves in to halt the onslaught.
Reinier de Ridder has taken care of business, putting away one of the UFC’s most highly touted prospects in shockingly one-sided fashion. Time will tell how this result ages, and where these two men’s career tracks diverge from here, but in the moment, this did not even look like the upset it supposedly was.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Bo Nickal R2 1:53 via TKO (Knees)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to de Ridder's size and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges that Nickal is the better wrestler but warns that de Ridder could get the first takedown and win on the ground. He decides not to bet on this fight despite the affordable odds, preferring to watch.

No bet; cautious despite odds
"Bo Nickal is the pick, but I'm a little weary."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is confident in Bo Nickal, expecting a knockout. He praises Nickal's fight IQ in the Paul Craig fight for not grappling with a dangerous submission artist. He notes that de Ridder will struggle to take Nickal down, and Nickal is the better striker with improving skills, better durability, and cardio. De Ridder has gassed out and quit in fights before. Brady predicts Nickal will knock out de Ridder in the second round.

Round 2 KO
"I like Nickel here. Uh, I think Nickel is going to knock out Renee De Ritter at some point in this fight. We'll call it second round knockout for Bo Nickel."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor picks Nickal, but with low confidence. He acknowledges that de Ridder is a dangerous grappler with a swarming style, but believes Nickal's superior athleticism and wrestling could shut down de Ridder's game. Connor notes that de Ridder's defensive flaws on the feet make him vulnerable to Nickal's power, and if Nickal can land early, he may finish. However, he admits Nickal's inexperience and poor showing against Craig make this a risky pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Let's split it: I'll pick Bo Nickal, you pick de Ridder."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Many are low on Nickal after the Paul Craig fight, but that was just for live striking experience. Here, he may mix in wrestling to keep de Ridder guessing. I expect Nickal to land a big shot and win by knockout.

knockout
"I think that will eventually lead to Nickel landing a big shot on Ditter and putting him out, winning this fight by knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Nickal's wrestling instincts and speed will be too much for Reinier de Ridder, who he thinks is stationary and vulnerable to straight shots. He notes that de Ridder struggled with Gerald Meerschaert and that Nickal will piece him up on the feet. He predicts Nickal will drop de Ridder early and finish him.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Bo Nickel. I think he has the wrestling instincts. First of all, Derida I don't think gets a takedown on him."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane picks de Ridder, drawing parallels to the GM3 fight where a less athletic but more experienced grappler outworked a younger wrestler. He notes that Nickal's lack of experience and poor performance against Paul Craig suggest he may struggle against de Ridder's pressure and scrambling. Zane worries that Nickal will get tired or panic if he can't impose his wrestling, leading to a late submission loss. However, he acknowledges Nickal's higher athletic ceiling could change the outcome.

Odds: Nickal -332, de Ridder +280. Zane thinks the odds should be closer to a pick'em given Nickal's last showing.
"I'll pick de Ridder to just repeat this GM3 fight and we're gonna see... the athletic higher athletic ceiling and much lower level of experience and technical skill are going to balance out."
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:31 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)

Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.

"I do think he wins this fight the odds are ing last time I said I thought he was going to win this fight he was a much bigger underdog now he's plus 115"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.

Mentions de Ridder may finish inside the distance with a submission. No specific odds.
"Rainer to Ritter that's exactly what he's looking to do he's not looking to have a fun striking match with you... he's looking to throw a right hand he's going to look to close that pocket get a hold of …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.

Odds: de Ridder opened +132, now -105; Holland opened -147, now -105. Connor thinks de Ridder deserves to be the favorite.
"I gotta take Reinier de Ridder."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.

Daniel took de Ridder at +126 for 2 units. He says the fade Kevin Holland World Tour continues and expects a submission win.
"I took uh rer der rder about a week or two ago at a plus 126"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.

"I'm going with the Ridder in this fight obviously it's a bit of a step up in competition from gm3 Kevin Holland is a Mainstay in the UFC but at the end of the day I don't think Kevin Holland …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.

submission victory
"I think he's going to struggle to keep darer off of him which will lead to dder eventually finding a dominant position and getting a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I'm with you I'll I'll take rer the Ritter at a pick on price here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.

submission
"I will take Raina Dara to submit Kevin Holland early or in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm gonna take de Ridder as well."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 1:44 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 30 of 54 55% 44 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:53
Gerald Meerschaert 1 38 of 66 57% 82 of 114 5 of 13 38% 1 0 3:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 21 of 34 61% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:10
Gerald Meerschaert 1 28 of 53 52% 33 of 59 2 of 6 33% 0 0 0:44
2 Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 17 52% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:25
Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 6 83% 35 of 39 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:49
3 Reinier de Ridder 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 7 71% 14 of 16 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 30 of 54 55% 27 of 49 3 of 5 0 of 0 22 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 7
Gerald Meerschaert 38 of 66 57% 19 of 42 10 of 13 9 of 11 34 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 21 of 34 61% 19 of 30 2 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gerald Meerschaert 28 of 53 52% 14 of 34 5 of 8 9 of 11 26 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Reinier de Ridder 9 of 17 52% 8 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 7
Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 6 83% 2 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Reinier de Ridder 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 7 71% 3 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Reinier de Ridder
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-290), Meerschaert (+235)

Round 1
In their combined 54 pro wins, these two co-headlining middleweights have earned 50 finishes. Referee Mike Beltran better buckle up as soon as these two get started, as Meerschaert (37-17, 12-9 UFC) is just as dangerous in the first minute as he is in the last. Ridder (17-2, 0-0 UFC) will be coming over from One Championship, where level of competition and some other policies differ significantly, and it remains to be seen if there are any immediate growing pains. If this hits the ground, hang on tight. The 185ers touch ‘em up, and de Ridder starts out with multiple front kicks. Meerschaert chases after him with a one-two, and de Ridder’s front kick gets plenty of work early. De Ridder awkwardly lunges his way in, and he gets popped with a right hand before backing off. “RDR” chips at the front leg twice before Meerschaert gets his hands on him, with Meerschaert connecting with a series of punches that redden the newcomer’s face up. De Ridder uses a low kick to set up a takedown attempt, scooping up the middleweight submission leader in the UFC and putting him down to the ground. De Ridder passes briefly, but Meerschaert flips him over and fights off a triangle choke setup to allow them both to stand. Meerschaert stabs out a jab, and he rips a left to the ribcage. Meerschaert scores two left hands, and his subsequent right hand draws a funny reaction out of the UFC debutant. Meerschaert checks a body kick and swarms forward with several powerful punches. De Ridder wobbles back, gets clipped with a left hand and ducks down to prevent any further harm. “GM3” shuts down a takedown with ease and slides to the side, and he eats a jab on the way out. A de Ridder low kick gets checked, and he sets up a few punches with a jab and takes a few on the chin before backing off. Meerschaert connects with a solid left hook and jumps guard for a guillotine choke, but de Ridder shucks him out of the way. Meerschaert kicks him off, stands up and deals with a jump knee. Meerschaert stuffs a takedown and sets up a power guillotine, only to use the grip to push off. De Ridder swings wide, has a low kick checked and shoots for a failed entry. Meerschaert drills him with an elbow when fighting of the takedown, and de Ridder pecks at him with distant jabs. Meerschaert gives him one jab back to think about, and de Ridder sits down on a right hand that gets Meerschaert’s attention. Meerschaert closes in and dings him with an uppercut, and he gets sent flying with an elbow and a looping left hand. Before “RDR” can put a stamp on things, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder

Round 2
To start off the second round, de Ridder wants to put hands on what he thinks to be a wounded fighter. Meerschaert appears to have his sea legs out him, and he swings back and tags the newcomer a few times. “RDR” walks him down, wraps up a body lock and hits an easy trip. Meerschaert turns to his side as de Ridder hopes to establish to half guard. De Ridder sneaks in an elbow before Meerschaert hand-fights with two-on-one wrist control on the Dutchman’s left arm, and de Ridder uses the opportunity to nearly slide out of danger. De Ridder sets up a choke while on his seat, and Meerschaert pushes him off and unloads with a lengthy punch combination. De Ridder still works his way upright, threaten with a throw and falls over. Meerschaert jumps on top, moving right into half guard and opening up with strikes. A brief arm-triangle choke from the American is flirted with, but Meerschaert bails on it to nail the debuting fighter with an elbow. De Ridder re-fastens his guard before tugging his toes on the fencing, and he pushes Meerschaert to his feet. “GM3” lowers himself back down while smacking de Ridder in the chops with punches. De Ridder fires back, and he lifts a leg up in hopes of hooking up a triangle. Meerschaert is wise to it and shucks it off, and he takes a few punches from “RDR” off his back. De Ridder fishes for an arm, and he uses it to work his way back to his feet. De Ridder turns the tables with a trip, placing the underdog on his back before having to fight out of an armbar. Meerschaert goes for one more submission as the 10-second clapper sounds, and he flips “RDR” over before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert

Round 3
The middleweights touch ‘em up to get the last round going, and Meerschaert is the one pushing the pace in pursuit of a clinch and possible takedown. De Ridder fights his way off the wall, only for Meerschaert to trip him down to his face. De Ridder stands back up, and Meerschaert shoots for a single that is defended. De Ridder drives a knee to the torso while Meerschaert stands up, and he trips “GM3” up and tosses him to the mat like a side of beef. Meerschaert squirms the right direction and puts de Ridder on the mat, evading a front choke while scurrying as fast as he can to put de Ridder on his back.
De Ridder repositions to full mount, and he locks down an arm-triangle choke in a hurry. Meerschaert defends by answering the telephone, and he quickly finds the submission is a bit too tight for his liking. Rather than get put to sleep, a disappointed Meerschaert taps out twice.
Both exhausted fighters fall to their backs, sucking wind now that the fight is over. De Ridder becomes the first fighter since Jack Hermansson in 2018 to force “GM3” to surrender, introducing himself to his new company in a big way.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Gerald Meerschaert R3 1:44 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder as the next evolution of Gerald Meerschaert: high-level BJJ with much better takedowns. He notes de Ridder uses his length well and can hang with anyone on the ground. He expects a high-level grappling fight and thinks the UFC matched him up this way on purpose. He will probably bet on de Ridder.

probably will bet on de Ridder
"reer is going to be the pick I think the UFC matched him up this way on purpose so yeah probably going to bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Big Brady goes back and forth but ultimately picks Meerschaert, citing de Ridder's poor cardio and striking. He expects de Ridder to come out strong but fade, allowing Meerschaert to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round submission for Meerschaert.

Meerschaert by submission, round 3
"I'll take mirart I'll say third round submission for mirart"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody highlights de Ridder's elite grappling credentials, including a draw with Andre Galvao and a competitive loss to Tye Ruotolo. He believes de Ridder's judo and BJJ black belt will neutralize Meerschaert's submission game, and his striking is good enough to win on the feet. Cody expects de Ridder to pass this barometer test and win, possibly by knockout or decision.

"I think he passes it but it's not a walk in the park still a tough fight but I think he should go out there and excel with his skill set."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Connor also picks Meerschaert, agreeing that de Ridder's striking is terrible and that Meerschaert can piece him up. He notes the size difference but thinks Meerschaert's boxing will prevail. He also comments that the odds are too wide in favor of de Ridder.

Odds too wide; de Ridder should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'm taking Mirchard too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Daniel Vreeland picks Gerald Meerschaert as a dog, citing concerns about Reinier de Ridder's stamina and recent performances, including a knockout loss and a quit job. He notes Meerschaert's durability, awkward striking, and record for most submissions in UFC middleweight history. Vreeland expects a late finish if de Ridder doesn't get an early submission.

Meerschaert by late finish
"I'm going with GM3 via late finish."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder to win, but is hesitant due to the wide odds. He notes that de Ridder is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking, while Meerschaert is a submission specialist who could catch him. He believes de Ridder's wrestling and size advantage should allow him to dictate where the fight goes, but acknowledges that Meerschaert is dangerous off his back and could pull off a submission. He also mentions considering a bet on Meerschaert due to the value.

"I'll pick the r but honestly I'm considering a bet on gm3"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

De Ridder's ability to take the back will be key. As his grappling wears on Meerschaert, he should open up a submission or ground-and-pound opportunity and get a finish in his UFC debut.

wins by finish
"I believe as the riters grapple heavy approach wears on him he should be able to open up a submission opportunity or a ground and pound opportunity which he should be able to get and get his hand raised in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul is not excited about laying -278 on a UFC debutant, but acknowledges de Ridder's experience in big fights and his grappling advantage. He notes that Meerschaert struggles when opponents don't gas and have comparable grappling. Paul thinks de Ridder can win on points or by taking Meerschaert down and controlling him.

"I'm not too excited about laying minus 278 on a guy who hasn't been tested in the UFC yet but he's obviously been in some big fights so he'll be my pick as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his jiu-jitsu advantage and ability to avoid being fraud-checked in grappling. He worries about de Ridder's stand-up but believes his clinch knees and body work will be key. He predicts de Ridder finishes Meerschaert with knees to the body in the second or third round, surviving any guillotine danger.

TKO via knees to the body, round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Raina darid here I may regret this but um M sharts wins Edmund shabazian fumbles everything can't go cardio rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Zane picks Meerschaert, noting that de Ridder cannot strike at all and has no functional pressure. He thinks Meerschaert can outbox him easily. He also mentions that de Ridder's wins are over regional competition and that Meerschaert is a tough out. He suggests a prop on Meerschaert by decision.

Meerschaert wins by decision at +800; fight goes the distance at +150.
"I'm taking Mirchard for sure."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.

"I'm going to pick him. Low confidence pick here, but I am going to go with Renier."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I like Whitaker here. ... I think he probably does knock out Ditter late in the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.

Odds movement from -190 to -140 suggests line movement, but Connor is surprised de Ridder is only +120, calling it 'basically dead even' and saying 'I don't see it.'
"I'm going to take Robert Whittaker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think Whitaker won't have as much trouble dealing with Ditter in the striking realm. And I think we'll see Whitaker stuff the takedowns of Derritter, keep this fight upright, pick the Ritter apart, and eventually find that finish in the third or fourth round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.

Submission, round 3, rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Raina Derida. ... I'm going to say submission victory for Raina Derida. ... third round rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.

"Yeah, it's just not a, it's not a fight that we've ever seen Whitaker lose... I expect it to look like a pretty easy fight for Whitaker."
Comments (2)
BR
brian 9 months, 3 weeks ago

Great win for Reiner, just throws a knee down the middle to grabbling. Relentless zombie like pressure

BR
brian 10 months, 2 weeks ago

Big step up in competition for Reinier but we shall see.