UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022 · Flyweight · Completed
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Age 35
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 37
Height 5' 4"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Charles Johnson
4.77 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.02 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.51 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Zhalgas Zhumagulov
5.24 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
5.86 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
19.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Charles Johnson
Moneyline
Caesars -165
KO/TKO
BetRivers +370
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
BetRivers +160
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Moneyline
FanDuel +152
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1200
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetRivers +240
Charles Johnson - Fight History
SCHED vs Asu Almabayev
WIN vs Bruno Silva
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 85 of 162 52% 110 of 189 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:06
Bruno Silva 0 73 of 136 53% 101 of 171 0 of 8 0% 0 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 18 of 34 52% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Bruno Silva 0 12 of 19 63% 15 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:53
2 Charles Johnson 0 33 of 60 55% 38 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Bruno Silva 0 27 of 53 50% 37 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
3 Charles Johnson 0 34 of 68 50% 54 of 88 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Bruno Silva 0 34 of 64 53% 49 of 83 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 85 of 162 52% 43 of 101 30 of 46 12 of 15 61 of 132 24 of 30 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 73 of 136 53% 52 of 106 14 of 21 7 of 9 71 of 131 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 18 of 34 52% 7 of 18 7 of 10 4 of 6 11 of 26 7 of 8 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 12 of 19 63% 6 of 11 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 33 of 60 55% 17 of 37 10 of 16 6 of 7 29 of 56 4 of 4 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 27 of 53 50% 18 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 5 27 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 34 of 68 50% 19 of 46 13 of 20 2 of 2 21 of 50 13 of 18 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 34 of 64 53% 28 of 56 6 of 8 0 of 0 32 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Bruno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-200); Silva (+170)

Round 1
Keith Peterson is the referee. Silva with an inside low kick early. Johnson shoots behind a punch. Silva defends and they’re in the clinch. Johnson lands a hook on the break. Johnson fakes a shot behind a left. Johnson with a front kick. The American shoots from long distance and Silva defends easily. Silva shoves his foe into the fence. Silva backs off. A right lands for Johnson, who follows with a leg kick. A sharp right connects for the Brazilian. Silva kicks the body. Johnson appears to be bothered by the pressure. Silva clinches again and locks his hands. Johnson lands an elbow in close quaters and Silva backs off. Silva lands in an exchange. They trade low kicks. Silva with a right as Johnson moves forward. Johnson partially lands a high kick. Johnson mixes in a low kick and a front kick. Silva answers by kicking the body. Silva keeps the pressure on late in the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 2
Johnson kicks the body and they trade in the pocket. Silva blocks a head kick. Silva is pressuring and Johnson is forced to defend a takedown. Johnson lands a knee and shoves his foe away. A jab lands for Johnson before Silva shoots. Johnson denies the takedown and the flyweights clinch against the fence. Silva backs off and Johnson lands a combination. A kick by Silva lands below the belt and time is called. Johnson is ready to go right away. They trade low kicks. Silva again looks for the takedown, shoving Johnson into the fence. Johnson lands a knee before they separate. Johson lands a kick and Silva counters. A straight left gets through for Johnson. Silva clinches behind an uppercut and they break quickly. Johnson fires a high kcik, but it doesn’t land clean. Another uppercut for Silva, who clinches with his opponent again. Johnson lands a short elbow in close. Silva lands a combination against the fence. A body kick lands for Johnson. The flyweights clash heads in the clinch and Johnson seemed to get the worst of it. Time is called. Silva fires a front kick and it lands low. It’s the second low blow of the round, and Johnson is in more pain than he was from the first foul. No point is taken, however. Johnson grabs a leg but lets it go. Silva with a body kick before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 3
Johnson catches a kick and lets the leg go. Johnson lands a left and they clinch. Inside leg kick for Johnson, and they clinch in the center of the cage. Silva shoves Johnson into the fence. Silva drops low in pursuit of the takedown, but Johnson defends well. Jonson jabs and they trae in close quarters. Both men land before the flyweights clinch. They battle for position before separating. This time Johnson initiates the clinch. Silva lands a combination at range and he’s pressuring Johnson, who is in defense mode. Silva ties up with his opponent against the cage. Johnson denies a takedown attempt. Johnson with a high kick on the break. Silva tries a spinning back elbow. Johnson with kicks and a right hand in hopes of creating space. Silva closes the distance again, shoving Johnson into the fence. He briefly gets the American down, but he’s up in short order. Silva moves in and lands an uppercut before clinching. They battle it out in the clinch, and Johnson lands a nice knee. Silva moves forward and goes back to the uppercut. Jonson responds with a slashing elbow. Silva keeps moving forward. but Johnson is landing plenty of offense. Both men are slugging it out in the waning moments of the fight. Johnson is finding the mark quite often. Another elbow lands for Johnson. They trade right up until the final horn, with Silva getting in a few more shots.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Bruno Silva via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Charles Johnson but admits nervousness due to Bruno Silva's one-punch knockout power. He notes Johnson's excellent footwork, hand speed, and cardio, and believes if Johnson gets going early, he can avoid the big shot and win a decision. He acknowledges Johnson has been knocked out before but thinks his high IQ will prevail.

"Charles Johnson is going to be the pick. I'm a little nervous."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson to win by third-round knockout, but expresses wariness due to Johnson's recent knockout loss and chin concerns. He likes the stylistic matchup, noting Silva's front-loaded power and tendency to fade, but worries Johnson might get knocked out early. He calls Johnson inconsistent.

"give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Cody picks Bruno Silva as a dog, citing his wrestling, power, and durability. He notes Johnson's takedown defense issues and recent knockout loss. He thinks Silva can win by decision or submission.

"Bruno Silva's could be primed to pull off an upset here for sure."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor also picks Charles Johnson, emphasizing that Bruno Silva lacks the ability to adjust strategically, while Johnson can figure out his opponent as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's wins come from opponents making the same mistakes, which Johnson does not do. Connor sees Johnson's adaptability as the key factor.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185
"I think the, the, I'm going to go with Johnson as well. It's, it's really unclear to me, honestly. Like I, I, I think either guy could go out, but it's essentially like ever present danger from Bruno Silva versus …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

James picks Charles Johnson to win by decision, but expresses concern about Johnson's quick return after a knockout loss. He notes Johnson's superior cardio, volume, and tools, but worries about his durability and potential recklessness. He believes Johnson is the better fighter overall but is uncertain how he will approach the fight.

"I definitely going to pick Charles Johnson here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The host picks Johnson to win by decision, expecting him to outclass Silva on the feet. He highlights Johnson's reach advantage, defensive grappling, and ability to get back to his feet quickly. He believes Johnson's striking will be too much for Silva, and that Silva's power and grappling won't be enough to overcome Johnson's technical edge.

"I think Johnson should be able to stay away from that power. I think he picks Bruno Silva apart."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Paul picks Bruno Silva, noting he bets him every fight. He likes his wrestling and power, and thinks he can outgrapple Johnson. He expects a close fight but Silva has value at plus money.

"I pretty much bet Bruno Silva every single fight. I don't see any reason to stop now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson, believing he will walk down Bruno Silva as the fight progresses. He notes Johnson's size advantage (5'9" vs 5'4") and reach, and that Silva fights in bursts and lacks consistent finishing ability. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

Prediction: second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson by TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Charles Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and evolve during fights, unlike Bruno Silva who tends to make the same mistakes repeatedly. He notes that Silva's wins come against fighters who repeat errors, while Johnson adapts and finds solutions. Zane acknowledges Silva's danger but believes Johnson's flexibility gives him the edge.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185
"I'm still going to pick Johnson. I don't think that I'm, I think Perez is always capable of pulling out performances like that in Paris is an ancient either."
LOSS vs Alex Perez
KO R1 3:16 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Perez 2 39 of 75 52% 55 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Charles Johnson 0 8 of 25 32% 8 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Perez 2 39 of 75 52% 55 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Charles Johnson 0 8 of 25 32% 8 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Perez 39 of 75 52% 27 of 60 9 of 10 3 of 5 33 of 67 4 of 6 2 of 2
Charles Johnson 8 of 25 32% 4 of 14 3 of 9 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Perez 39 of 75 52% 27 of 60 9 of 10 3 of 5 33 of 67 4 of 6 2 of 2
Charles Johnson 8 of 25 32% 4 of 14 3 of 9 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Alex Perez (128.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-205), Perez (+170)

Round 1
All UFC fights stateside will plug on under the Paramount+ streaming service, so the distinction between early prelims and the “ESPN” or “Fox Sports” prelims is less significant than before. Former UFC Fight Pass maven Ant Evans suggested the breakdown of cards shift to the main card—no change there—the undercard, where the four-fight prelim slot prior to the main card is placed; and any bout before those nine should be considered a prelim. Nevertheless, the action continues in a catchweight affair as the skidding Perez (25-10, 7-6 UFC) failed to make the flyweight limit by two and a half pounds. A quarter of his purse goes to “InnerG” Johnson (18-7, 7-5 UFC), whose unique hairstyle is starting to have a mind of its own. The athletes will be officiated by referee Jason Herzog, and Perez offers his foe an apologetic glove touch that is accepted.
Perez darts straight to the center of the cage, where he tracks Johnson down and parries a body kick to race towards him. Johnson dings him with a right hand and slides out of the way to reset. Perez goes wide on a right hand, and he nearly gets his chin checked with a head kick. Johnson checks a few leg kicks and stays right before Perez, circling on the outside while Perez walks straight towards him. A Perez barrage comes up short, although a second effort does clip Johnson on the chin. Johnson fires back with a high kick, and Perez unloads with a vicious left hand that stuns Johnson and sets him down. Johnson pulls the cage to stand back up, still badly rocked, and he stands in front of Perez as if he wants to bang it out. Perez has no fear, and he drives a few knees into his jaw that hurt him once more. Johnson takes a right hand on the chin that shakes him up and forces him to bounce off the fencing to keep his feet about him, and Perez is all over him.
Perez marches down “InnerG” with impunity, and Johnson is being held up by the cage when Perez blasts him. One more knockdown is registered by Perez, and Johnson drops to his knees to desperately shoot. Perez takes anything Johnson offers and walks through it to tear in to the damaged fighter who has fought back to his feet again.
When Johnson lifts up an anticipatory knee, Perez loads up on a left hand and sends Johnson careening to the canvas for the umpteenth time, and Herzog has seen more than enough and waves things off.
Johnson still gets up on autopilot and runs towards Perez as Perez has walked away to celebrate his handiwork, and he even gets hold of Perez’ leg when Perez is trying to climb the cage wall. Herzog manages to cool Johnson down, who was damaged and in a bad way for much more than a minute. This is a crucial victory for Perez, who had only gotten his hand raised once in his last six outings. It is a bit of a tough break for Perez, because while he won and likely staved off a pink slip, his missing weight makes him eligible for a finish bonus. It takes champion Joshua Van mere moments to post on social media taunting the defeated Johnson, who laughs off any chance at a rematch.

The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Charles Johnson R1 3:16 via TKO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez despite his four-fight losing streak, arguing the losses are to elite fighters and he was winning against Asu Almabaev before a mistake. He praises Perez's striking, low kicks, and wrestling. He notes Charles Johnson is a friend of the show but believes Perez can pull off the upset. He is very low confidence, rating it 51 out of 100.

This might be a spectacular plus three and a half. If he stays as big of an underdog as he is now, a spectacular plus three and a half bet. ... Charles Johnson's notably a slow starter. So if he takes his time and he doesn't get after it and Alex kind of stays in his face, pushes the pace a little bit, he'll definitely win a round. I don't definitely don't see him getting finished. So plus three and a half bet is likely the way I'm going to go here.
"I think Alex Perez can pull this off. He is freaking good. He's good. ... On a scale of one to 100, I am picking Alex Perez at 51."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady notes Perez finds ways to lose, often getting finished when he's winning. He expects Perez to win round one but fade as Johnson works into the fight. He predicts Johnson will finish Perez, likely by submission, as Perez has been submitted many times.

Johnson by submission
"I'm gonna take Charles Johnson here. I think he actually finishes Alex Perez. When Perez is losing fights, he's getting finished more often than not."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Cody picks Charles Johnson, citing Perez's poor cardio and tendency to make mistakes. He notes Johnson's improved takedown defense and striking volume, and believes Johnson will win the later rounds. Cody sees Johnson as a live underdog and expects him to win by decision or late stoppage.

"Johnson's no spring chicken. Like he's also 34 years old at flyaway. It's a little bit older. But the mileage, the injuries, it's it's energy Johnson for me. So I I got Charlie to get it done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor questions whether Alex Perez is actually a good flyweight, noting his record of 1 win in 6 fights over 5 years. He sees Perez as a bully on the front foot who lacks durability and defensive striking. Johnson, on the other hand, is clicking better, finding his timing earlier, and has a persistent, awkward style that can frustrate opponents. Connor believes Johnson can survive Perez's hot start and take over, possibly getting a finish.

"I think i'm gonna pick him here to be alex perez because what we are seeing is that charles johnson is clicking better and better."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to finish Alex Perez. He notes that Perez has lost five of his last six and has questionable heart and fight IQ. Vreeland believes Johnson's slow-starting style matches up well against Perez, who tends to fade. He predicts Johnson will find the chin or neck of Perez for a finish.

"I think Charles Johnson's going to come out here and finish Alex Perez."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

James picks Johnson, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He notes Perez often gets finished and that Johnson is more locked into MMA. He predicts a finish, possibly by submission or knockout.

"I think he's a much better striker than Alex Perez. I really do."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The host picks Perez as an underdog, citing his forward pressure, leg kicks, and gas tank. He believes Perez can dictate the pace and outwork Johnson, who can be gunshy. He notes Perez's recent losses are to high-level competition and sees value at +175. He predicts Perez by decision or knockout.

Perez by decision or knockout
"I love him as an underdog at plus 175. This is a no-brainer shot to take on Perez."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Johnson's improvements and Perez's bad luck. He notes Johnson's knockout power and volume, and believes Perez's cardio will fail him. Paul likes Johnson on the money line and also considers the knockout prop.

Charles Johnson by knockout
"Charles Johnson by like by knockout isn't too bad of a look. I don't think he's like plus 500 or up I would take probably."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson, citing his win over Joshua Van and his range advantage. He notes that Johnson's uppercut game will be effective against Perez's head-tucking hooks. He predicts a close decision, possibly with Perez having a good third round.

decision
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson getting this one done by close decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Perez's wrestling control time is often minimal and that he walks into danger. Johnson has a great flow and timing, and his ability to pressure and exhaust opponents is key. Zane also mentions that Johnson knocked out the flyweight champion and has a Bobby Green-like quality. He thinks Johnson can survive Perez's early pressure and win.

"I think johnson's going to be really annoying for him to fight. Johnson's like visibly not scared he's yeah, he likes for you to come forward and chase him."
KO R2 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 44 of 81 54% 52 of 89 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:32
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 59 of 120 49% 60 of 121 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 14 of 25 56% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 36 of 65 55% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 56 53% 38 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 44 of 81 54% 18 of 49 6 of 10 20 of 22 37 of 71 4 of 6 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 59 of 120 49% 32 of 83 21 of 26 6 of 11 53 of 111 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 14 of 25 56% 3 of 11 2 of 4 9 of 10 14 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 36 of 65 55% 17 of 37 14 of 18 5 of 10 34 of 63 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 56 53% 15 of 38 4 of 6 11 of 12 23 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 23 of 55 41% 15 of 46 7 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 48 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.

Odds are -200 for Kavanagh; Angelo thinks Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog.
"Loner Kavanaaugh is probably the pick just given all the other circumstances."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"I'm going Kavanaaugh to win a close decision in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

odds comment: -180 is a great entry point
"We're so used to seeing Kavanaaugh at super chalky odds, but here at minus 180. I think this is a great entry point against a guy in Charles Johnson who may not have the power to get the respect from …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.

Charles Johnson by decision; underdog +170
"Charles Johnson's going to get the upset win in my opinion. He's an underdog. He's plus 170."
LOSS vs Ramazan Temirov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 66 of 156 42% 87 of 183 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Ramazan Temirov 0 55 of 139 39% 59 of 146 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ramazan Temirov 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Charles Johnson 0 14 of 37 37% 21 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Ramazan Temirov 0 19 of 46 41% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Charles Johnson 0 37 of 78 47% 51 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Ramazan Temirov 0 15 of 49 30% 18 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 66 of 156 42% 28 of 104 23 of 32 15 of 20 46 of 129 20 of 27 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 55 of 139 39% 42 of 117 13 of 22 0 of 0 46 of 118 9 of 19 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 15 of 41 36% 5 of 26 3 of 6 7 of 9 13 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 21 of 44 47% 14 of 33 7 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 39 2 of 4 0 of 1
2 Charles Johnson 14 of 37 37% 7 of 22 5 of 10 2 of 5 10 of 32 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 19 of 46 41% 14 of 41 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 39 3 of 6 0 of 1
3 Charles Johnson 37 of 78 47% 16 of 56 15 of 16 6 of 6 23 of 59 14 of 19 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 15 of 49 30% 14 of 43 1 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 40 4 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Angelo slightly leans towards Ramazan Temirov, citing his power and the judges' tendency to favor damage over clean technique. He acknowledges that Charles Johnson is more technical and could win a decision if he fights perfectly, but believes Temirov's power and aggression might sway the judges. He does not bet on this fight due to its razor-thin nature.

No bet; fight too close
"I am going to slightly ever so slightly lean OV here because I think that power perception might matter to the judges"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing his superior experience, cardio, and output. He notes that Ramazan Temirov relies on power shots but flyweight knockouts are rare, and Johnson has never been finished. He expects Johnson to win by decision, and even made a bet that if Johnson wins, he'll buy a 'Scallet Gang' t-shirt.

Johnson by decision; bet on Johnson moneyline; if Johnson wins, Big Brady will buy a Scallet Gang t-shirt; if Johnson wins in round 3, Big Brady will shave his head into a scallet
"I'm going Charles Johnson here I'm going to be picking him to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

The host believes Temirov is a future title contender and will showcase his potential this weekend. He highlights Temirov's footwork, angle cutting, and explosive approach in the pocket, expecting his power shots to be more impactful. He predicts a knockout within the first two rounds.

knockout in first two rounds
"I believe tamarov is a future title uh Contender and I believe believe we'll see that potential this uh weekend as he goes out there and utilizes his footwork uh angle cutting and explosive uh approach especially when he gets …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson over Ramazan Temirov. He acknowledges Temirov's danger and finishing ability but doubts he can land a KO shot on Johnson, who has a great chin, good cardio, and range. He notes Johnson's win over Joshua Van and close fight with Sumudaarji. He predicts a decision win for Johnson, possibly a late TKO if Temirov slows down.

PrizePicks: Ramazan Temirov under 56.5 significant strikes (using code Guru)
"I'm leaning towards Charles Johnson for this pick... I'm going to go of Charles Johnson getting this one done by decision 2928 maybe even a late rounds TKO."
WIN vs Sumudaerji
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 65 of 150 43% 84 of 177 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:58
Sumudaerji 0 75 of 144 52% 78 of 149 0 of 3 0% 2 1 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 50 38% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
Sumudaerji 0 24 of 43 55% 24 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 60 50% 34 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:03
Sumudaerji 0 23 of 44 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:30
3 Charles Johnson 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Sumudaerji 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 65 of 150 43% 42 of 113 15 of 22 8 of 15 49 of 123 5 of 10 11 of 17
Sumudaerji 75 of 144 52% 41 of 96 7 of 15 27 of 33 68 of 135 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 19 of 50 38% 12 of 42 5 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 44 3 of 6 0 of 0
Sumudaerji 24 of 43 55% 12 of 26 2 of 3 10 of 14 20 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 60 50% 20 of 41 5 of 11 5 of 8 19 of 43 0 of 0 11 of 17
Sumudaerji 23 of 44 52% 15 of 32 2 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 16 of 40 40% 10 of 30 5 of 6 1 of 4 14 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
Sumudaerji 28 of 57 49% 14 of 38 3 of 7 11 of 12 26 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Su Mudaerji
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-225), Mudaerji (+185)

Round 1
Once with his back firmly against the wall, Johnson (16-6, 5-4 UFC) has given himself plenty of breathing room with a three-fight win streak. While he has plenty of momentum on his side, the matchmaking results him in facing Mudaerji (16-6, 3-3 UFC), who has lost his last two. Whether fortune continues to smile on “InnerG” or the Chinese fighter gets back in the win column, referee Mark Smith will be there for it every step of the way. Fists are bumped, and Johnson walks through a leg kick to immediately swarm Mudaerji with a flurry of fists. Johnson pressures Mudaerji up to and against the wall, kneeing him when they tie up. Johnson lifts knees to the gut while “The Tibetan Eagle” is pinned against it, and Mudaerji tries to get away and ultimately wrenches his way out and raps a right hand on the side of Johnson’s dome. Johnson shakes it off and plods forward, absorbing a few punches and a flush calf kick so he can charge in with his own offense. Johnson misses his strikes, dodges a low kick and keeps marching forward. Mudaerji sticks his man with a calf kick and jabs him to mix things up, and Johnson preemptively picks his leg up after these kicks start to add up. Mudaerji goes on the inside with two kicks, and Johnson sits down on a right hook to drive Mudaerji back. Mudaerji steps in with an elbow, and he flicks out a few jabs and splits the guard with a left. Mudaerji batters the front leg with a kick, and Johnson eats a jab and drops his hands to reset. Johnson checks a kick when crashing the pocket, and he loads up on power punches to the body. Johnson ties him up, and he knees his man in the chest and thighs while Mudaerji is warned for grabbing inside the glove. Mudaerji lashes out with an elbow to break, and he keeps his volume high by picking jabs and low kicks from his preferred range. Johnson crowds his man and unleashes a big right hand, only to get pulled into a Thai clinch and a sharp knee on the chin. Johnson frantically chases after his opponent, loading on up big strikes and forcing Mudaerji to ricochet off the fencing. Mudaerji dodges and weaves the worst of the attacks coming his way, and Johnson backs him against the wall and loads up on him. Johnson lets him have it until the bell sounds mid-exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to get going in the second stanza, and Johnson dashes out of his corner to engage. Mudaerji is prepared to defend the initial blitz, succeeding in staving off the most threatening of the strikes. Mudaerji keeps shifting and moving actively, occasionally getting backed to the wall but never truly cornered. Mudaerji catches Johnson coming in with a right hand, and he scores two low kicks before Johnson can get to him. Johnson goes high with a kick that bounces off the guard, and he stomps the knee with his foot twice. Mudaerji shifts to the left to tag Johnson with a straight strike, and he flicks out a front-leg side kick and a number of punches to follow. Mudaerji wings big right hands that land behind the head, and he stumbles Johnson coming forward thanks to a low kick. Johnson finds his range with a left hook, but it is one-and-done as Mudaerji keeps moving and did not take the brunt of it. Mudaerji lines up a left hook around the guard, and Johnson barely blocks it in time. Mudaerji intercepts Johnson coming in once more, with Johnson leaving his hands low after throwing big. Johnson runs forward, hands by his side, and he jacks Mudaerji in the jaw with a vicious right hand. Mudaerji tries to escape, but Johnson is a dog with a bone chasing after him. Johnson backs Mudaerji to the fence and uppercuts him so hard, Mudaerji’s head snaps back like a Pez dispenser. Johnson lays into his opponent with a long barrage of punches, hurting Mudaerji badly and putting him down. Johnson tries to finish the job, swinging his way into the guard, where Mudaerji manages to survive and circle around to threaten with a triangle that transitions into an armbar. Johnson fights through it, gets put on his back, fights back up and somehow puts Mudaerji on the mat. Mudaerji sweeps him as soon as his seat hits the floor, and a mad exchange of grappling magic ensues until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 3
The third round kicks off with Mudaerji tough as nails ready and willing to trade. Mudaerji sticks out two front kicks, spins with a wheel kick and smashes it on the side of Johnson’s dome. The forward pressure of Mudaerji allows him to trip Johnson up, and he slams the American to the mat. Johnson jumps back up and meanders forward, checking kicks but otherwise breathing hard and not striking. Mudaerji splits the guard with a left hand, potshotting Johnson coming forward while Johnson’s offense is practically nonexistent. Johnson grits his teeth after taking a few jabs to plow forward with telegraphed hooks, and the Chinese fighter sees them coming from a mile away. Johnson slings a right to open up a straight left, and the latter catches Mudaerji on the chin. Mudaerji chops his front leg back a few times, and he turns his hips into a body kick and then resets to land one more to the inner calf of “InnerG.” Johnson stalks Mudaerji down, walking through strikes but taking more than he is landing back. Johnson’s pressure results in a brief clinch, and Mudaerji fights his way out of it and just misses with a head kick. Mudaerji times a level change when Johnson wings a right hand, and Johnson reverses him with a throw to put “The Tibetan Eagle” on his back. Mudaerji scrambles wildly to get to his feet, and he breaks away from a clinch with an overhand right. Mudaerji puts three punches on the chin as Johnson shoots for a takedown, and he sets up a brabo choke to hurl Johnson to his knees. Johnson fights the hands to break up the submission, and he drops to one knee so he does not absorb a knee from the Chinese fighter. Johnson and Mudaerji swing it out right to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Su Mudaerji via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo is very confident in Charles Johnson, citing his high output, technical striking, and ability to maintain pace for 15 minutes. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense is untested (only one takedown attempt in UFC) and that Johnson has survived tough moments before. He expects Johnson to pressure forward, be the cleaner striker, and take over as the fight goes on. He also mentions Johnson's activity and recent success.

"Charles is the pick I am very confident in that pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson by second-round submission. He highlights Sumudaerji's poor takedown defense and six submission losses. Johnson has good wrestling and submission attempts, though no UFC submission wins. He warns that if Johnson strikes, it's a different fight, but expects him to mix in takedowns and submit Sumudaerji.

second round submission
"I'm going to Charles Johnson give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson as a craftsman who should handle Sumudaerji's straightforward style. He notes that Sumudaerji lacks footwork to be a true sniper and that Johnson is durable and calculating. He expects Johnson to get on his front foot and take over in round two.

"I'd expect to see Johnson start to get on his front foot and really take over in round two"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Both are strikers, but Johnson has a better gas tank, better discipline striking, and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from Sumudaerji's power. Johnson will chip away and win by decision or get a late finish.

"Johnson the better gas tank better discipline striking and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from the big Power of sumod darji allowing Johnson to chip away at sumod dargi either win this fight by decision or …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson despite not liking him personally, citing Johnson's recent momentum and wins over Joshua Van and Jake Hadley. He criticizes Sumudaerji's lack of power and relevant wins, noting he was dominated by Tim Elliott and struggled against Matt Schnell. He believes Johnson can take the fight to the ground if needed and predicts a later-rounds finish.

later rounds finish
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, expecting him to calculate and counter Sumudaerji's linear, lunging strikes. He notes that Sumudaerji is a one-track fighter who backs straight out after throwing, and Johnson's durability and craftiness should allow him to take over in round two. He acknowledges that Johnson might be lackadaisical against a less dangerous opponent.

Sumudaerji opened +176, now +187; Johnson opened -201, now -216; odds feel right
"I think Charles Johnson can find the counters to those strikes"
WIN vs Joshua Van
KO (punches) R3 0:20 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 67 of 133 50% 72 of 140 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Joshua Van 1 88 of 191 46% 90 of 195 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 22 of 46 47% 27 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Joshua Van 0 44 of 80 55% 46 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Charles Johnson 0 44 of 83 53% 44 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 0 36 of 100 36% 36 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Johnson 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 67 of 133 50% 44 of 106 17 of 20 6 of 7 60 of 123 7 of 9 0 of 1
Joshua Van 88 of 191 46% 44 of 124 25 of 41 19 of 26 84 of 184 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 22 of 46 47% 13 of 36 8 of 9 1 of 1 16 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 1
Joshua Van 44 of 80 55% 18 of 41 13 of 23 13 of 16 41 of 74 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 44 of 83 53% 30 of 66 9 of 11 5 of 6 43 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joshua Van 36 of 100 36% 19 of 74 11 of 16 6 of 10 36 of 100 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joshua Van 8 of 11 72% 7 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-205), Johnson (+170)

Round 1
Capping off the prelims is the flyweights, who will likely engage in a high-paced frenzy of feet and fists. Van (10-1, 3-0 UFC), training out of 4oz Fight Club in Texas, comes in on an eight-fight win streak with stoppages in six of those. While he has only won two in a row, Johnson (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is on the first winning stretch of his UFC career as he has already picked up two decisions this year. This speedy affair will be joined in the cage by referee Joe Coca, and it kicks off with an appropriately quick glove touch. Johnson leads off in a hurry with a leg kick, a jab to the body and a high kick. Van blocks a subsequent body kick, and he keeps his guard up to defend a jab. Johnson picks at him from distance, mixing his attack up to all targets. As Johnson crashes forward, he clips Van with a right hand, and Van takes it flush and does not bat an eye. Johnson stays active with several chopping low kicks, flicking out jabs and flustering Van. Van tries to close the distance with his own strikes, but Johnson is far more active than the self-described slow starter. Johnson peppers him with jabs and low kicks, pushing out a front kick to make Van back away. Van pushes in with a jab and an overhand right, and he uses it to tie Johnson up. “InnerG” turns him around and pounds Van in the thigh and breadbasket with knees, and Van tries to fight out of it to no avail. Johnson shoots in for a double, and Van stonewalls him and backs him away with his own jab. Van protects his ribs with a kick and sets his right hand on the chin. Johnson strings together three punches in response, and he brushes his face to say Van did not land. Van ignores this and touches him two more times with an overhand right, and Johnson stumbles and escapes when backed to the cage. Van brings up a knee that bounces into the cup, and Johnson tells Coca he is fine and that there is no stoppage necessary. Van walks Johnson down, fighting behind a jab and landing right hands to follow. Van knocks his man off his feet, and Johnson defends with an armbar off his back. Johnson jumps back to his feet when Van pulls out of the submission, and he shoots for a takedown that fails. Johnson prods out jabs, and Van busts him in the chops with a right and a left. Van makes Johnson shell up with a right hand and two body shots, and the power difference is fast. Van puts a lot more behind his strikes, and he gets the reactions he seeks when landing until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 2
Van comes out of his corner ready to pick up where he left off, marching “InnerG” down and landing a few strikes on the way in. Johnson is also similarly active, picking and poking with distance strikes. Van smashes him in the face with an uppercut, and Johnson does not like this and circles away. Van gives chase, chaining three punches together as Johnson escapes. The Terminator-like Van plods forward, aiming strikes to the body when not going up top. Johnson reaches out with a swiping left hook, and it does not make Van back up one inch. Van comes out throwing with two hooks, and Johnson barely gets out of the way. Johnson jabs twice and powers out a left hand, and Van no-sells him and gives him back a sharp jab that makes Johnson turn his head dismissively. Van pops him with a left and comes at him with a head kick, and Johnson bounces off the cage and lets loose with a right hand. Johnson whiffs on two hooks, and Van stays tightly compact and dings Johnson with a left hook on the nose. Van buckles the leg with a kick, ignoring Johnson’s jabs and straight punches. Johnson scores a left, and Van does too. Van jabs his way into a short combination, and Johnson punches back as he strafes to the side. Van nails him with a right hand, and Johnson shakes it off and throws back. Van loops a few right hands around the guard, and Johnson strikes back and gets in an elbow down the middle. Van keeps pursuing his foe, and the two flyweights are trading without fear. Johnson steps through with a knee, and Van responds with a right hand over the top and barely blocks a spinning back elbow in time. Van misses with a right as Johnson jumps forward, and his head kick is blocked. Two Johnson jabs end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
There is a brief glove touch to begin the last round, and Johnson lands the first strike with a right hand. As they both swing for the fences, Johnson nails his opponent with a right hand. Johnson blasts the body with a kick and ducks to avoid a screaming left hook, and he fakes a leg kick to spin with an elbow that bounces off Van’s forehead. Van tries to make him pay with an overhand right, but Johnson’s own fast right finds its mark and gets Van’s attention. Johnson jabs the body and comes up top with two punches, and his crisp right staggers “The Fearless.”
Johnson walks Van down and clobbers him with a thunderous uppercut, sending Van careening to the mat. As Johnson leaps down to smash Van with a big right hand, Coca dives between them, and Van’s head bounces off the mat to bring him back around.
While Van sits up to potentially protests the stoppage, he realizes he got his bell rung and that there is nothing more he can do. Johnson celebrates his wild comeback victory after a thrilling battle, and he sets the crowd up to drown out the arena with “USA” chants.

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Joshua Van R3 0:20 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Charles Johnson as an underdog, citing his experience against higher-level competition and short-notice adaptability. He acknowledges Joshua Van's power and prospect status but believes Johnson's veteran savvy and awkward style could frustrate Van. Angelo has a small bet ($25, quarter unit) on Johnson at +170 and mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet as a safer alternative.

Has a $25 bet at +170; considering plus 3.5 round bet for Johnson.
"I am going to pick Charles Johnson here I am going to go the underdog here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Cody picks Van, citing his youth, volume, and cardio. He notes Van's slow starts but believes his pace will overwhelm Johnson, who tends to fade. He expects Van to win by decision or late finish.

"Joshua Vans a play for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to win a close decision. He notes that Johnson is a veteran who has been in tough battles and has prepared well for the altitude. He acknowledges Van's talent but thinks Van may face a roadblock. He likes the plus 180 underdog value and expects a split decision type fight.

"I'm g go with Charles Johnson with the veteran experience here uh via a very close type Split Decision type fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Joshua Van

Joshua Van's style is more reliable with consistent output. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, Van will crash the pocket and land body shots, setting up his striking game. The minus 200 line is a bit wide, but Van should win on the scorecards.

Van by decision; odds comment: line a bit wide
"the minus 200ish line on Van a little bit wide for my liking but I do think we see him come through and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Paul picks Van, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Johnson's tendency to lose rounds early and then fade, while Van gets stronger as the fight goes on. He expects Van to outwork Johnson and win a decision.

"I'm going to have to go with volume I'm going to go with Joshua van."
WIN vs Jake Hadley
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 70 of 168 41% 88 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jake Hadley 0 48 of 128 37% 50 of 130 0 of 11 0% 0 0 2:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 40 47% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Hadley 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Charles Johnson 1 32 of 74 43% 37 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jake Hadley 0 20 of 38 52% 22 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
3 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 54 35% 29 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Hadley 0 11 of 43 25% 11 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 70 of 168 41% 36 of 125 12 of 18 22 of 25 66 of 159 0 of 2 4 of 7
Jake Hadley 48 of 128 37% 15 of 86 15 of 22 18 of 20 46 of 124 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 19 of 40 47% 5 of 21 5 of 8 9 of 11 19 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jake Hadley 17 of 47 36% 3 of 27 6 of 10 8 of 10 15 of 43 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 32 of 74 43% 19 of 58 4 of 7 9 of 9 28 of 67 0 of 0 4 of 7
Jake Hadley 20 of 38 52% 6 of 22 5 of 7 9 of 9 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 19 of 54 35% 12 of 46 3 of 3 4 of 5 19 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jake Hadley 11 of 43 25% 6 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 1 11 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jake Hadley

Angelo leans towards Jake Hadley because he cannot trust Charles Johnson's one phenomenal showing over several mediocre ones. He notes Hadley has good takedowns and BJJ, though his takedown accuracy is low due to bailing on attempts. He acknowledges that if the version of Johnson that beat Azat Maksum shows up, he wins, but that version has only appeared once.

"I am going to lean Jake Hadley here because Jake Hadley has pretty good takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing the hometown advantage in St. Louis and the possibility that Johnson can do enough on the feet while mixing in takedowns. He notes that Johnson has been taken down in every UFC fight but that Hadley has zero takedowns in the UFC, so the fight likely stays standing. He is not confident because Johnson can be low volume and hesitant, but if the version that fought Maxim shows up, he can win. He expects a decision and thinks the hometown rub could help Johnson in a close fight.

PrizePicks play: Jake Hadley more than 45.5 significant strikes
"I'm thinking about maybe taking the the hometown guy because I think he can do enough to win on the feet maybe mixing some takedowns in his own right and then also if it's a close fight or even if …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Cody picks Johnson as a confident underdog. He argues that Hadley is overhyped, with poor cardio, weak striking, and a questionable chin. Johnson has excellent get-up game, having been taken down many times but always getting back up. He also has superior boxing and volume. Cody believes Johnson can stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and outwork Hadley on the feet. He notes that Hadley has looked bad against wrestlers and grapplers, and Johnson is a tough veteran.

"Charles Johnson dog money over Hadley all day sign me up"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson, noting that the fighters who beat Johnson are relentless wrestlers, which Hadley is not. He believes Johnson's cardio and volume will be key, and that Hadley's weight cut (walking around 160 lbs) will be a factor. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Johnson.

by unanimous decision
"I'm going to have to go with Charles Johnson via unanimous decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Paul picks Johnson, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Johnson showed improved takedown defense in his last fight and has never been submitted. Hadley's cardio and striking are suspect, and Johnson's volume should win rounds. Paul thinks Johnson's get-up game and durability will be key. He is confident in the underdog.

"Charles Johnson plus 140 for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson as an underdog over Jake Hadley. He criticizes Hadley's performance against Cody Durden, particularly his inability to secure takedowns and his stationary style. He praises Johnson's elusiveness, outside movement, Olympic-level cardio, and world-class takedown defense. He believes Johnson's style will frustrate Hadley and that Hadley's best wins come against fighters who stand in front of him.

"I'm gonna go the underdog of Charles Johnson here over Jake Hadley."
Zhalgas Zhumagulov - Fight History
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joshua Van 0 103 of 287 35% 104 of 291 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 120 of 234 51% 131 of 245 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joshua Van 0 26 of 77 33% 27 of 81 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 25 of 48 52% 36 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joshua Van 0 38 of 94 40% 38 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 51 of 100 51% 51 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Joshua Van 0 39 of 116 33% 39 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 44 of 86 51% 44 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joshua Van 103 of 287 35% 45 of 201 28 of 48 30 of 38 101 of 281 2 of 6 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 120 of 234 51% 78 of 179 29 of 41 13 of 14 106 of 217 14 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joshua Van 26 of 77 33% 10 of 54 10 of 14 6 of 9 25 of 75 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 25 of 48 52% 11 of 29 11 of 15 3 of 4 23 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Joshua Van 38 of 94 40% 23 of 72 7 of 14 8 of 8 38 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 51 of 100 51% 36 of 81 10 of 14 5 of 5 40 of 88 11 of 12 0 of 0
3 Joshua Van 39 of 116 33% 12 of 75 11 of 20 16 of 21 38 of 114 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 44 of 86 51% 31 of 69 8 of 12 5 of 5 43 of 84 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joshua Van vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhumagulov (-195), Van (+165)

Round 1
After multiple withdrawals and opponent changes, Zhumagulov (14-8, 1-5 UFC) finally finds himself with a dance partner. In the flyweight division, he will face off against UFC newcomer and Fury FC staple Van (7-1, 0-0 UFC), who lives in Texas but hails from Myanmar. The Kazakhstan-based Zhumagulov has a lifeline after losing three straight fights, but with multiple controversial decision defeats on his ledger, he comes up against a fighter in Van who has never before heard the final bell as a pro. This potentially fast-paced affair will be officiated by referee Andrew Glenn, and it begins with a glove touch. Zhumagulov pushes the pace and flicks out a jab, and Van snaps his head back and gets kicked low with a foot that slides up into his cup. Van adjusts his athletic supporter and does not pause, and Zhumagulov walks after him with a front kick and a few follow-up punches. They trade heavy kicks, and Zhumagulov gives chase with a looping right hand. Zhumagulov digs a left to the body and right to the head, and he hops forward with a left hook. Van counters with a short right, and the two get their jabs going. Zhumagulov slips a right hook, and he kicks the calf in response. Van attacks the body and gets jabbed for his effort, and he snaps one back to shake up Zhumagulov’s new haircut. Van follows a jab with a sharp right hand, and he digs a left straight to the midsection. Van intercepts an advancing Zhumagulov with a leg kick, and Zhumagulov swings his way into a body lock takedown. Van breaks away with a knee to the body, and he slides back as Zhumagulov aims strikes at his torso. Zhumagulov comes up just short on a winging left hook, and he plants a one-two on the side of the head. Van looks to make him pay with a similar combination, and Zhumagulov is right there in front of him throwing hammers. Zhumagulov dips down to sling a left, and he walks through an uppercut to crash through a single and deposit Van to the floor. Van jumps right back up, and Zhumagulov hits a quick mat return. Van once more is able to wall-walk upright again, and they separate and fire off jabs. Both men aim body kicks at the same time, and Zhumagulov misses with a three-punch salvo. The close frame ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov

Round 2
The second round begins with the two trading quick strikes, and Zhumagulov starts off with multiple leg kicks. Van marches through them to push out jabs, and he surprises his foe with a one-two in the middle of Zhumagulov’s activity. Zhumagulov chips at him with jabs and leg kicks, and he gets stung with an overhand right but shakes it off. They clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks, and the jab from Van is starting to mark up his opponent. Van follows his jabs with right hands, and Zhumagulov swings back harder with inaccurate blows. The leg kicks from Zhumagulov are connecting, and Van backs him away and brushes his foe’s hair back with a blazing high kick. Van strides into a one-two, and he pushes out a front kick that Zhumagulov catches but not convert into a takedown. Zhumagulov loops a right hand around the guard, and Van whips a high kick at him that slams into the guard. Van duplicates the head kick and rocks Zhumagulov, and he proceeds to unload with a vicious salvo of punches that blasts into Zhumagulov. The Kazakh fighter toughs it out and counters well enough to keep Van honest, and he skirts away, still a little wobbled. Van does not recklessly chase, instead measuring with his jab and one-two, and Zhumagulov is more committed to single power punches. Zhumagulov telegraphs them as Van walks him down, he gets clipped behind the ear with a right hand. Van turns a front kick into a punch combination as Zhumagulov is trying to find his timing. Van eats a low kick, and he backpedals as Zhumagulov gives him the business with several kicks and a sharp uppercut. Zhumagulov wings a right hand that grazes the cheek and opens a cut, and he connects with a heavy leg kick. The two trade furious punches, and Van sends Zhumagulov staggering back. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist that smacks into Van’s chin, and he tries another that misses the mark. Van, seeing this, decides to spin with his own elbow, and the growingly exciting round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
There is a quick glove touch before the two flyweights decide to get right back to action, and they trade punches in a fun exchange. Van leans back from a haymaker to stick out several jabs, and he catches Zhumagulov coming in with straight punches. Zhumagulov still manages to land with his sweeping hook, and Van drives him back with a jab. Van follows a jab with a right hook that shakes Zhumagulov up, but Zhumagulov bites down on his mouthpiece and leaps forward with a left hook. Van’s jab is money, as Zhumagulov spins with a failed back fist in response. Van gets off an oblique kick to change the stance briefly, but Zhumagulov gathers a full head of steam and kicks the lead leg in retaliation. Zhumagulov gets his bell rung with a short stream of punches, and Van is in the driver’s seat as he knocks Zhumagulov’s head around. Zhumagulov throws one or two, while Van strings several together generally. This volume is giving Zhumagulov fits, and Van opens up with a step-in elbow that leads to them closing the distance and bumping their heads together. Zhumagulov protests, and after a moment of confusion, they get back to it. Van keeps coming forward, and he absorbs and shrugs off a left hook to jump at the Kazakh fighter with a jump kick. Zhumagulov lashes out with a few punches, and Van jabs to break it up and throw back a hard right hand. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist, and Van times this to bust Zhumagulov’s nose up with a combination. Van continues to push the pace, flicking out jabs and not missing a beat. Zhumagulov throws back with impunity, missing several looping strikes and others graze off the intended target to little effect. Van times a jab into a huge right hand, and when it misses, he chambers and fires another shorter right that meets the mark. Zhumagulov spins recklessly, and he sinks in a left hand when he recovers. Van stuns his foe with a one-two, and he spins with a wheel kick that misses the hairline. With 15 seconds left in the fight, the two start brawling. Van lands heavy blows, Zhumagulov gives chase and spins several times, only to get popped with sharp punches as he does. The 21-year-old newcomer sticks his tongue out, and after another exchange, the striking battle wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, citing a giant skill gap. He notes Zhalgas has been screwed by judges but should bully the UFC newcomer Joshua Van with his wrestling and pressure. He mentions the line at -185 is expensive for a guy 1-4 in his last five but expects Zhalgas to blow through Van.

"he should absolutely blow through this kid that line is fine"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, believing he is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Joshua Van is only 21 and coming into the UFC too soon, with poor takedown defense. He expects Zhumagulov to wrestle and control the fight, winning a decision. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's deceptive UFC record due to tough competition.

"give me a Zog assuming cool up to grind this one out and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his wrestling and grappling advantage. He thinks Van is too young and inexperienced, and that Zhumagulov's pressure will overwhelm him. He mentions the Paddy Pimblett haircut as a good luck charm.

"Zogos has the better skill set better skill set should win the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Connor picks Zhumagulov as the far more experienced fighter who has proven in recent fights to be more willing to be crazy and aggressive. He notes that Joshua Van is super raw, only 21 with eight pro fights, and while he has a good foundation, he often gets surprised and doesn't get out of range quickly. Connor thinks Zhumagulov's athleticism and aggression will be too much for the young Van. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's head may not be in the right place, but against this level of competition, he still expects Zhumagulov to win.

"I obviously have to pick Jumagulov as the far more experienced fighter who has proven in his recent fights to be way more willing than ever before to be crazy and aggressive."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Daniel Levi picks Joshua Van, citing his athleticism, killer instinct, and ability to create finishes. He thinks Zhumagulov is beatable, fights close, and fades. He acknowledges Van's greenness but believes he can bully Zhumagulov. He is taking a shot on the newcomer.

"I'm gonna go on a limit I'm gonna take the newcomer to come out here and upset a very beatable fighter in zagas"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The host picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by dominant decision. He believes Zhumagulov's experience and motivation will be key, and that he will keep the pressure on from the start, landing takedowns and controlling on the mat. He notes Van's lack of experience (only 2.5 years in MMA) and thinks the experience gap will be too much.

"give me Zuma gulov by dominant decision Victory here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov, citing his experience and durability. He thinks Van is too green and that Zhumagulov's pressure and wrestling will be too much. He expects a clear win.

"This should be one-way traffic as far as I'm concerned."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The Guru picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, noting that Joshua Van relies on finishes and has only won by finish or been finished. He believes Zhumagulov is very difficult to finish, with only Manel Kape stopping him, and has experience against tough competition. He doubts Van can push a pace for three rounds in his debut, especially since Van was training for a fight in August and may not have ideal cardio.

"I'm gonna go with zalgasm agilov here Joshua van looked at him he's a good fighter young finisher... I just don't think he's gonna win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Zhumagulov. He notes that Van is a low-output flyweight who is competent but not confident in taking the fight to opponents. Zane points out that if Van tries to have a kickboxing match, he won't match Zhumagulov's pace, and if Zhumagulov takes him down, Van may not be able to meaningfully respond. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's mentality has been getting worse, but he has been getting better as a fighter. Overall, Zane sees a huge experience gap and expects Zhumagulov to win.

"It just seems like a pretty obviously overwhelming experience golf between these two."
LOSS vs Charles Johnson
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 115 of 209 55% 141 of 237 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 119 of 234 50% 141 of 258 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 43 of 77 55% 46 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
2 Charles Johnson 0 33 of 56 58% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 46 of 77 59% 65 of 98 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
3 Charles Johnson 0 50 of 93 53% 52 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 30 of 80 37% 30 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 115 of 209 55% 64 of 142 41 of 54 10 of 13 101 of 191 14 of 18 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 119 of 234 50% 36 of 119 34 of 62 49 of 53 112 of 225 6 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 32 of 60 53% 15 of 34 15 of 22 2 of 4 30 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 43 of 77 55% 10 of 35 15 of 23 18 of 19 40 of 74 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 33 of 56 58% 13 of 30 15 of 20 5 of 6 26 of 45 7 of 11 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 46 of 77 59% 15 of 37 16 of 24 15 of 16 43 of 74 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Charles Johnson 50 of 93 53% 36 of 78 11 of 12 3 of 3 45 of 88 5 of 5 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 30 of 80 37% 11 of 47 3 of 15 16 of 18 29 of 77 1 of 3 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jeff Molina
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeff Molina 0 56 of 148 37% 129 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 37 of 112 33% 68 of 146 2 of 13 15% 0 0 5:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeff Molina 0 14 of 35 40% 30 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 14 of 32 43% 22 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:16
2 Jeff Molina 0 13 of 33 39% 60 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 7 of 25 28% 20 of 40 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:37
3 Jeff Molina 0 29 of 80 36% 39 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 16 of 55 29% 26 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeff Molina 56 of 148 37% 43 of 133 6 of 7 7 of 8 49 of 139 5 of 7 2 of 2
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 37 of 112 33% 10 of 74 17 of 26 10 of 12 28 of 103 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeff Molina 14 of 35 40% 11 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 3 11 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 14 of 32 43% 4 of 21 5 of 5 5 of 6 8 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jeff Molina 13 of 33 39% 7 of 27 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 7 of 25 28% 3 of 18 3 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jeff Molina 29 of 80 36% 25 of 75 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 75 2 of 3 2 of 2
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 16 of 55 29% 3 of 35 9 of 15 4 of 5 15 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

Angelo describes Jeff Molina as a good striker with volume and kicks, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov is tough with power and chain wrestling. He notes Molina has been taken down multiple times but still won those fights. He leans Molina but warns about Molina's kicks being caught, which could lead to a Zhumagulov decision win.

"i'm gonna lean molina here because even in two fights where he was taken down multiple times he was able to keep the pressure and control the striking to win those fights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

Big Brady picks Jeff Molina to win by decision. He likes Molina's volume striking (over 8 significant strikes per minute) and well-rounded game, and thinks Molina will outwork Zhumagulov on the feet. He notes that Zhumagulov is a good fighter but has not had success with takedowns in the UFC, and even if he gets them down, Molina is good at getting back up. He expects the fight to stay standing and Molina's volume to be the difference.

Molina by decision
"I feel like molina has what it takes to win this by decision here so give me uh molina give me molina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

Cody picks Molina but is uneasy, noting Molina's volume and potential but also his untested competition. He thinks Molina's future is bright but this fight could be competitive. He is not confident enough to bet heavily.

"i think molina is the rightful favorite here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

Daniel Levi leans toward Jeff Molina, citing his high volume and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's ability to make fights close and his experience, but believes Molina's output and takedown defense will be key. He will not lay -185, preferring to watch or take the dog.

"i'm gonna lean with molina here but i'm laying that price tag my man"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov as an underdog, citing his experience against tougher competition. He notes Molina's hype may be premature and that Zhumagulov has faced better fighters. He thinks it will be a close decision and sees value in the dog.

"i'm going to put zuma gulab i think he's my underdog shot number two"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Molina's height and reach advantage, good takedown defense, and improving skills. He expects Molina to win the first round via grappling, then pick up the pace on the feet in the last two rounds. He doesn't see Zhumagulov bullying Molina and thinks Molina will land kicks and punches at range.

"i'm going to go jeff molina 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Manel Kape
TKO (punches) R1 4:02 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 2 53 of 72 73% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 31 of 79 39% 31 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 2 53 of 72 73% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 31 of 79 39% 31 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 53 of 72 73% 39 of 56 5 of 7 9 of 9 53 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 31 of 79 39% 19 of 61 6 of 11 6 of 7 31 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 53 of 72 73% 39 of 56 5 of 7 9 of 9 53 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 31 of 79 39% 19 of 61 6 of 11 6 of 7 31 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manel Kape vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Round 1
When this flyweight fight ends, one of the two competitors between Kape (16-6, 1-2 UFC) and Zhumagulov (14-5, 1-2 UFC) will likely lift their UFC record to .500 and earn their second victory under the organization’s banner. In this classic battle of Angola vs. Kazakhstan, referee Keith Peterson may have his hands full overseeing what could be a fast-paced contest, but there will be no nonsense allowed while it takes place. Kape is amped up, and Peterson backs him off several times, and there is no sign of respect with a glove touch. Kape leaps out of his corner when the round begins in an attempt to beat Jorge Masvidal’s record, but Zhumagulov sees it come and pushes it away. Kape pops him with a right hand on the way out, but Zhumagulov is not fazed and pressures Kape with a few big punches. As Kape goes low with a kick, Zhumagulov tags him with an overhand right that knocks Kape back to the wall and draws a huge smile on his face. Zhumagulov does not get too aggressive, instead finding his range with an uppercut and a right hand. Zhumagulov trips, but he gathers himself before Kape can take advantage of it. The Kazakh marches Kape down, but he does not do so recklessly into a counter that Kape sets up in the form of a huge right hand. Zhumagulov steps forward with a knee, and he snaps a jab out that surprises Kape. They trade quick punches, and Zhumagulov follows up an exchange with a leg kick. When Kape lands with another kick to the calf, Zhumagulov jumps forward to drill him in the face. Zhumagulov checks one such kick, and he evades the leaping knee that soars at his chin. Kape tries to stick and move, only for Zhumagulov to follow him with a pair of punches that land flush. Zhumagulov swings a kick that collides into the thigh, and he rushes in with a punch salvo that Kape cannot escape in time. Kape lands with a left and a right, only for him to get countered on the way out. Kape continues to connect with leg kicks, and he sits down on a right hand that knocks Zhumagulov to his seat. Kape cannot keep Zhumagulov down, so when Zhumagulov stands, he busts him up with a few big right hands that send him careening to the wall.
Seeing he has his man hurt, Kape opens up with a brutal series of punches to the head and body and tees off on Zhumagulov. Zhumagulov tries to shell up and protect himself from the onslaught, but lightning-quick strikes get through and drop Zhumagulov down to the ground.
Peterson intervenes as soon as Zhumagulov slumps over, and Kape may very well have saved himself from a pink slip with an emphatic knockout over an opponent that had only been finished once in his career, back in 2015.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov R1 4:02 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhalgas, liking the odds at +190. He notes Zhalgas is a chain wrestler with relentless pressure, and Manel has a negative striking differential and makes IQ mistakes. Angelo thinks Zhalgas can win via takedowns or cage control, but is nervous about the line moving.

1 unit at +190 (considered but not yet placed)
"i like zalgas here i i like the odds are worrisome before i even saw the odds i just saw the match up and i was like well zalgas right that's easy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by knockout. He believes Kape is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, with better striking, wrestling, and BJJ. However, he expresses frustration with Kape's low volume, noting that if Kape would throw more, he could be a serious problem. He thinks Kape's 94% finish rate suggests he will finish Zhumagulov, who has been knocked out before. Brady is confident but not overly so due to Kape's tendency to underperform.

by knockout
"give me uh manel cop to win by knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cody agrees with Paul, not making a pick. He thinks Kape's price is too high given his low output and that Zhumagulov's volume could cause problems. Cody says he can't recommend betting Kape at -250.

"yep i agree with you on all fronts there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to knock out Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He believes Kape has ridiculous speed, movement, and punching power, and that Zhumagulov is small for the weight class and can be bullied. He notes that Zhumagulov is always on the back foot and that Kape can eat his best shots. He thinks Kape will finish him, possibly after working for it.

knockout
"I'm gonna go with manila cape to knock him out"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Jacob picks Zhalgas, placing a plus 3.5 round bet at -110. He notes Zhalgas is intelligent and will time takedowns, and Manel is overconfident and has decision losses. Jacob thinks Zhalgas will find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds.

Plus 3.5 round bet on Zhalgas at -110
"i have a three and a half bet on him um you know if kate finds a way to uh you know pull out another win then maybe i'll i'll jump on his bandwagon"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Manel Kape

I lean Kape. He is the more talented striker with power and speed, but his output is a concern. Zhumagulov keeps a decent pace and is durable. I think Kape's power will be the difference, but the fight is likely to go the distance. I like the fight goes to decision prop at minus 165 and Kape by decision at plus 130.

Kape by decision +130, fight goes to decision -165
"i am leaning on the cop side here i'm not paying minus 260 at this point in time because again it could be a very very close fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, expressing skepticism about Kape's -250 price. He notes Kape's low output and lack of urgency, and that Zhumagulov is a high-volume fighter who could make it close. Paul thinks the line is too high and that Kape might not finish, making it a risky bet.

"for minus 250 this is a walk in the park i don't necessarily think it's a walk in the park knocking out zogus good luck body good luck so you're gonna have to fight him for 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape to win by third-round TKO via knee. He expects a slow first round with clinch work, then Kape's leg kicks and body knees will take effect. In the third, Zhumagulov will be compromised, and Kape will land a fight-ending knee in the clinch, similar to his fight against Matias Nicolau.

third round tko
"i'm going to go manila cap third round tko that's what i'm going to do"
WIN vs Jerome Rivera
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:02 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhumagulov, citing his toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Zhumagulov will close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate. He notes Rivera is not UFC-level yet and has lost three in a row. However, he warns against betting at -358 odds and suggests the under on rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"zalgas is my pick but uh like i mentioned i'm staying far away from it in draftkings"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by decision. He thinks Zhumagulov is the better fighter and can mix in takedowns. He notes Rivera has zero takedowns in the UFC and poor takedown accuracy. However, he is concerned about the height and reach disadvantages for Zhumagulov, and thinks the -358 line is too wide. He expects Zhumagulov to close the distance and get the job done, but not without difficulty.

"i'm going to say zagasumu gulab by decision but yeah the minus 358 just seems like a little bit way too wide for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his experience and Rivera's poor UFC run. He thinks Zhumagulov's volume and takedowns will be too much. He expects a decision win but also likes the KO prop at +450.

Zhalgas by KO at +450
"zalgus by decision i think that's like everyone's gonna pick azalgus by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Daniel Levi picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He acknowledges that Zhumagulov has not been impressive and is a small flyweight, but believes he has beaten better competition on the regional scene. He criticizes Jerome Rivera for being timid and lacking confidence, despite having physical advantages. He thinks Zhumagulov will outpoint Rivera to a unanimous decision. He cannot back Rivera to win any UFC fight.

"i see zagat zuma gula out pointing him to a to a probably unanimous decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Jacob picks Rivera as an underdog, citing his length and submission threat. He notes Rivera's losses are to top competition and he believes Rivera can keep distance and find a submission. He thinks the -358 on Zhumagulov is too high and likes the plus money on Rivera.

Rivera by submission
"i actually like jerome in in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

I'm picking Zhumagulov to win, but I'm not confident. He is a point fighter with low finishing ability, and Rivera is a volume striker who could make it close. Rivera has value as a dog, especially by decision. I think Zhumagulov wins a close decision, but I wouldn't parlay him. The over 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Rivera by decision (+560), over 2.5 rounds
"my pick ultimately is going to be zuma gulov but please don't go out there like parlaying him in all these tickets"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov, noting Rivera's poor record and chin issues. He thinks Zhumagulov's experience and durability will prevail. He expects a decision win.

"i think zogus does get the job done this could be the end of the road for jerome rivera"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The Guru picks Zhumagulov by 30-27 unanimous decision. He expects both fighters to trade on the feet in the first half of each round, with Rivera possibly having a range advantage. But Zhumagulov will stay patient, then walk Rivera down and take him down against the cage in the second half of each round, landing ground and pound. The Guru compares the takedown style to Alvarez-Poirier. He sees Zhumagulov winning every round with dominant top control.

"zalgasa magulov is going to get this one done as well ... i'll give it a 30 27 to zalgasa magulov"
LOSS vs Amir Albazi
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amir Albazi 0 68 of 169 40% 94 of 200 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:38
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 59 of 132 44% 74 of 150 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amir Albazi 0 14 of 58 24% 25 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 23 of 39 58% 29 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
2 Amir Albazi 0 31 of 69 44% 32 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Amir Albazi 0 23 of 42 54% 37 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 11 of 37 29% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amir Albazi 68 of 169 40% 40 of 128 15 of 24 13 of 17 64 of 163 2 of 3 2 of 3
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 59 of 132 44% 22 of 84 31 of 41 6 of 7 58 of 128 1 of 2 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amir Albazi 14 of 58 24% 6 of 45 4 of 6 4 of 7 14 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 23 of 39 58% 9 of 24 12 of 13 2 of 2 23 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Amir Albazi 31 of 69 44% 19 of 51 5 of 10 7 of 8 30 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 25 of 56 44% 9 of 34 13 of 18 3 of 4 25 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Amir Albazi 23 of 42 54% 15 of 32 6 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 3
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 11 of 37 29% 4 of 26 6 of 10 1 of 1 10 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Big Brady picks Amir Albazi as an underdog, citing his decent striking and good ground game. He notes Albazi submitted Malcolm Gordon in his UFC debut. He expects a close fight and thinks Albazi will edge it out with takedowns. He is hesitant because Zhumagulov's fights are often close and he could have won his last fight.

"i'm going to go with the underdog here i'm going to go with albazi"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Daniel Levi picks Amir Albazi, citing his aggression and forward pressure. He notes Zhumagulov gets bullied and has questionable wins. Levi believes Albazi is the more talented fighter and will win by being more aggressive, though he acknowledges it could be a toss-up.

"i'm going with amir al bazi i just think he projects to go higher i think he's the more talented guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Albazi is the younger, improving fighter with a strong grappling game. He has shown he can get the fight to the ground and has good jiu-jitsu, as seen in his submission win over Malcolm Gordon. Zhumagulov is primarily a striker who doesn't have great takedown defense and tends to lose early rounds. In a three-round fight, Albazi only needs to win the first two rounds by securing takedowns and controlling top position. I expect Albazi to win via decision.

"I'll go with Amir Albazi to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi to win by submission in the first round, but later also mentions a close decision. He notes Albazi is younger, stronger, and more explosive, while Zhumagulov is slowing down. He references Albazi's impressive UFC debut submission and his grappling skills. He believes Zhumagulov's grinding style is not respected by judges, and Albazi's power and takedowns will be key. He also mentions betting on Albazi as an underdog.

Underdog bet, submission in first round or 29-28 decision
"i'm going to go with amir al bazi here by submission in the first round bigger guy stronger guy more explosive younger as well"
LOSS vs Raulian Paiva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raulian Paiva 0 52 of 121 42% 56 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 66 of 119 55% 73 of 126 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raulian Paiva 0 21 of 47 44% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:12
2 Raulian Paiva 0 16 of 40 40% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 27 of 44 61% 32 of 49 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
3 Raulian Paiva 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 20 of 34 58% 22 of 36 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raulian Paiva 52 of 121 42% 14 of 71 22 of 31 16 of 19 51 of 119 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 66 of 119 55% 19 of 61 17 of 25 30 of 33 64 of 115 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raulian Paiva 21 of 47 44% 6 of 30 8 of 9 7 of 8 21 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 19 of 41 46% 5 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10 19 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Raulian Paiva 16 of 40 40% 5 of 23 7 of 11 4 of 6 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 27 of 44 61% 7 of 20 9 of 13 11 of 11 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2
3 Raulian Paiva 15 of 34 44% 3 of 18 7 of 11 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 20 of 34 58% 7 of 16 2 of 6 11 of 12 20 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.

"i just think paiva is the better overall striker and uh and yeah so i'm going to go pivot i think it's going to win a decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going with my top prospect which is Holly and Paiva I think he beats this kid up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.

"I like Paiva's length and is striking here his kicking is very very impressive too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.