vs
-170 +150
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 7"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Miles Johns
3.36 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.99 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
1.22 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Vince Morales
3.57 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
4.0 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.59 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Miles Johns
Moneyline
Caesars -170
KO/TKO
BetWay +300
Submission
BetRivers +950
Decision
BetRivers +210
Vince Morales
Moneyline
DraftKings +150
KO/TKO
BetMGM +600
Submission
BetMGM +2000
Decision
DraftKings +275
Miles Johns - Fight History
LOSS vs Daniel Marcos
Submission R2 4:23 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 28 of 54 51% 33 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:34
Daniel Marcos 0 27 of 47 57% 42 of 69 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 8 of 20 40% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Daniel Marcos 0 12 of 21 57% 25 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
2 Miles Johns 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Daniel Marcos 0 15 of 26 57% 17 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 28 of 54 51% 21 of 45 3 of 5 4 of 4 28 of 49 0 of 5 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 27 of 47 57% 15 of 33 8 of 10 4 of 4 14 of 34 13 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 8 of 20 40% 4 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 13 5 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 12 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 20 of 34 58% 17 of 29 2 of 4 1 of 1 20 of 32 0 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 15 of 26 57% 10 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Angelo picks Daniel Marcos because of his superior cardio and cleaner striking. He notes that Miles Johns will come out hot and win the first round, but will fade as the fight goes on, allowing Marcos to take over. He also mentions a potential bet on Miles Johns plus 3.5 rounds, as Johns is likely to win one round.

Miles Johns plus 3.5 rounds (spread bet)
"Daniel's probably the cleaner overall striker. Miles has more power. As long as Daniel avoids the haymakers, I'm expecting him to win here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady sees this as a close fight, noting that Daniel Marcos has a nice record but he thought Marcos lost the Davey Grant fight. He mentions Miles Johns has a wrestling background and surprisingly good cardio lately, while Marcos has slowed down in past fights. He favors Marcos' distance striking but thinks Johns has more power and the fight goes to a split decision, leaning toward Johns due to the corrupt judges.

split decision
"I'm going to leave Miles John's here in a very close fight, but I think this fight has split decision written all over it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Cody picks Johns as a dog, citing his improved performance against Matsumoto and Marcos' inconsistency. He thinks Johns' wrestling and volume can earn him a decision.

"Give me dog money here on Miles Johns."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not provide a clear pick for this fight. He discusses Adrian Yanez vs Christian Quinones instead, which is not on the card. He mentions Miles Johns and Daniel Marcos only in passing, but does not give a prediction.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The host believes Marcos has a better all-around game and will pick Johns apart from distance, especially by chewing away at the lead leg. This should slow Johns down and allow Marcos to win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Marcos will showcase a better all-around game, picking apart Jon's from distance and really chewing away at that lead leg."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Paul leans Johns but is passing due to uncertainty. He notes both fighters' inconsistency and the short-notice changes, but likes Johns at plus money.

"I'm going to say Dogger Pass, and I'm going to take Johns as the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The Guru picks Daniel Marcos over Miles Johns. He notes that Marcos has been competitive with top bantamweights like Davy Grant and Montel Jackson, while Johns is on a two-fight losing streak. He highlights Marcos's nasty knees up the middle as a key factor against the stationary Johns. He predicts a TKO finish, as Johns doesn't move enough to avoid Marcos's pressure.

"I'm going to take Daniel Marcos to win this fight via TKO."
LOSS vs Jean Matsumoto
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 83 of 184 45% 89 of 191 5 of 8 62% 0 0 3:12
Jean Matsumoto 0 95 of 233 40% 109 of 249 0 of 3 0% 2 1 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 22 of 42 52% 23 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Jean Matsumoto 0 16 of 49 32% 20 of 54 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:22
2 Miles Johns 0 34 of 67 50% 35 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:26
Jean Matsumoto 0 35 of 84 41% 39 of 89 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:27
3 Miles Johns 0 27 of 75 36% 31 of 80 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:04
Jean Matsumoto 0 44 of 100 44% 50 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 83 of 184 45% 70 of 170 12 of 13 1 of 1 78 of 175 5 of 8 0 of 1
Jean Matsumoto 95 of 233 40% 49 of 160 27 of 38 19 of 35 87 of 224 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 22 of 42 52% 17 of 37 5 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 1
Jean Matsumoto 16 of 49 32% 8 of 29 5 of 9 3 of 11 15 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 34 of 67 50% 31 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 35 of 84 41% 15 of 55 14 of 19 6 of 10 33 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 27 of 75 36% 22 of 70 4 of 4 1 of 1 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 44 of 100 44% 26 of 76 8 of 10 10 of 14 39 of 94 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns as a dog, noting he is a strong wrestler with heavy hands and explosive speed. He thinks Matsumoto gets hit a lot and cuts easily, and in Las Vegas damage matters. Angelo likes the plus money on Johns and may bet the spread (+3.5) instead of the moneyline.

Considering betting Miles Johns +3.5 spread.
"I like the dog here. I'm going to pick Miles John's at two to one almost three to one for Gene Matsimoto."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto, criticizing Miles Johns for not using his wrestling and having low volume. He believes Matsumoto's higher volume and ability to mix in takedowns will be key. Brady expects Matsumoto to win by decision, though he notes the fight is not exciting.

"I like Matsumoto here. I'll take Matsumoto to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Connor picks Matsumoto, describing him as a brute who sits down on his punches and forces opponents to prove they can handle his power. He notes that Johns struggles when opponents stay in his face and keep up the pace, as seen against Felipe Lima. Connor believes Matsumoto's pressure, boxing, and ability to cut off the cage will overwhelm Johns, though he acknowledges Johns hits hard and could land a big shot.

Odds mentioned: Johns opened +190, currently +260; Matsumoto opened -225, currently -310.
"I think that Matsumoto was just a little bit more on that Felipe Lima side of things."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host is a big fan of Matsumoto and thinks he can replicate what Philippe Lima did to Miles Johns. He expects Matsumoto to use a Muay Thai heavy approach, mix in takedowns, and chip away at Johns' lead leg, eventually winning on the scorecards.

"I think he can replicate what Philippe Lima was able to do to Miles John's last time around. utilize his Muay Thai heavy approach, maybe mix in some takedowns, but I think for the most part, Matsumoto will chip away …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The MMA Guru picks Jean Matsumoto, noting he arguably beat Rob Font and has multiple paths to victory. He criticizes Miles Johns as flat-footed and coiled up, which will allow Matsumoto to mix in grappling and striking. He predicts a decision win for Matsumoto, possibly 30-27.

"I've got to go with Gene Matsamuto. He arguably beat Rob Font."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Zane picks Matsumoto, highlighting his fast hands, good mobility, and technical boxing. He notes that Johns is a wrestle-boxer who needs to get takedowns to succeed, but Matsumoto's pressure and power will make that difficult. Zane compares Matsumoto to a bantamweight Danny Yay or Josh Emmett, a reliable gatekeeper who is always dangerous.

Odds mentioned: Johns opened +190, currently +260; Matsumoto opened -225, currently -310.
"I think it'll be dangerous. Johns hits like a tank, but Matsumoto is the kind of fighter the UFC desperately needs right now."
LOSS vs Felipe Lima
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felipe Lima 0 31 of 137 22% 35 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:35
Miles Johns 0 55 of 134 41% 60 of 140 2 of 5 40% 1 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felipe Lima 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Miles Johns 0 20 of 48 41% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Felipe Lima 0 15 of 61 24% 18 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Miles Johns 0 24 of 58 41% 27 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
3 Felipe Lima 0 4 of 33 12% 5 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Miles Johns 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 31 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felipe Lima 31 of 137 22% 21 of 122 5 of 7 5 of 8 31 of 135 0 of 2 0 of 0
Miles Johns 55 of 134 41% 43 of 112 7 of 10 5 of 12 52 of 126 3 of 5 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felipe Lima 12 of 43 27% 9 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 2 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miles Johns 20 of 48 41% 13 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 9 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Felipe Lima 15 of 61 24% 9 of 54 3 of 3 3 of 4 15 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miles Johns 24 of 58 41% 21 of 52 2 of 4 1 of 2 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Felipe Lima 4 of 33 12% 3 of 29 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Miles Johns 11 of 28 39% 9 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns despite acknowledging Felipe Lima is more talented. He trusts Johns' veteran savvy and wrestling, but is hesitant because Johns has a history of abandoning wrestling to sit on right hands. He notes Lima slowed in his last fight and that Johns could win if he actually wrestles. He emphasizes this is a pick, not a bet, and would only consider betting if Johns is a big underdog.

No bet; would consider inside the distance/decision no action if odds are favorable.
"Miles Johns is actually going to be the pick here I'm going with the veteran Savvy and the wrestling in the back pocket but zero money at stake."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady picks Miles Johns as a big underdog, calling the line 'nonsense'. He thinks Johns is the better wrestler and can dictate where the fight goes, and notes Johns has elite defensive striking (69% defense). He believes Lima is overhyped and that his win over Naimov was aided by Naimov quitting. He expects a close fight and takes the plus money.

fight goes to distance
"I'm going to take the big dog here in Miles John's going to a very unpopular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Cody picks Felipe Lima, citing his well-rounded skills, excellent grappling, and striking. He notes that Miles Johns has a wrestling advantage but has struggled with cardio and was caught for PEDs. Cody believes Lima's volume and scrambling will win the fight, though he doesn't love the line.

"I got fipe Lima winning this fight I just don't necessarily love the line."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Felipe Lima

Connor also picks Lima, noting that Lima's game is built on the idea that he will bounce back from anything, and that Johns needs to convince opponents they can't tussle with him, which is hard against a confident young fighter like Lima. He acknowledges that Lima will get into trouble but thinks Johns' control is a veneer and that Lima's finishing ability gives him the edge.

"I don't think you can do that to a young absurdly confident fighter like Lima. So I think it'll still be dicey."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Daniel Vreeland picks Felipe Lima, contingent on him pushing a high pace. He notes Miles Johns fights at a low output and Lima must stay in his face and not give him time to rest. Vreeland believes Lima's grappling and volume can overwhelm Johns, who dislikes high-paced fights. He warns that if Lima fights at a low pace, Johns will win.

"I really think Lima's gonna come out here pushing insane Pace we know miles JNS does not like fighting at high paces and as a result I think that Lima is gonna win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Lima's more technical and aggressive striking approach, combined with defensive grappling, should allow him to land more damage and eke out a decision. However, the odds are considered too wide, and Miles Johns is a potential dog at +200, making this a hesitant pick.

Miles Johns underdog consideration at +200
"I believe the odds are a little bit too wide here but my prediction is still going to be on the Lima side as I believe his Tech more Technical and aggressive striking approach and defensive grappling will allow him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Paul picks Felipe Lima, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Johns has a path via wrestling but Lima's superior striking and grappling should prevail. Paul is not confident enough to bet heavily but sees Lima as the likely winner.

"I got fipe Lima winning this fight I just don't necessarily love the line."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

The MMA Guru picks Felipe Lima, citing his speed, dynamic kicking, and more diverse striking compared to Miles Johns, who he describes as a boxer with limited combinations. He notes that Johns is moving up to featherweight for the first time and may not have the size advantage. He also mentions Lima's youth (26) and the momentum of Brazilian prospects. He predicts Lima will finish Johns inside the distance.

finish inside the distance
"I think he's faster I think he kicks a lot better mil Johns is a boxer he wrestles a bit as well offensively here and there but he's really power punching on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Felipe Lima

Zane picks Lima but is torn. He notes that Lima is a confident, opportunistic fighter who never gives up, similar to early Brandon Moreno, while Miles Johns is a wrestle-boxer with a dated style but hits hard. Zane points out that Johns has faded in fights and his wins have asterisks, while Lima's willingness to engage and recover could overwhelm Johns. However, Lima's lack of control is a concern.

Johns opened at +232, now +204; Lima opened at -273, now -236. Zane says he likes the fight a lot.
"I think I'm inclined to take a Lima here because while I agree that Johns has been looking a lot more assured of his approach, there's still some asterisks on these performances."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 36 of 119 30% 36 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 50 of 96 52% 52 of 98 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 12 of 27 44% 12 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 7 of 15 46% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Miles Johns 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Miles Johns 0 14 of 51 27% 14 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 18 of 36 50% 19 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 36 of 119 30% 21 of 80 6 of 21 9 of 18 36 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 50 of 96 52% 37 of 82 6 of 7 7 of 7 50 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 12 of 27 44% 7 of 16 1 of 4 4 of 7 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 7 of 15 46% 3 of 10 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 10 of 41 24% 4 of 24 4 of 13 2 of 4 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 25 of 45 55% 19 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 14 of 51 27% 10 of 40 1 of 4 3 of 7 14 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 18 of 36 50% 15 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns, citing his youth, speed, and wrestling advantage. He notes Douglas is durable and a tough striker but is older and slowing down. He worries about Miles' cardio but believes his wrestling will be the difference. He mentions he has a moneyline bet on Miles.

Moneyline bet on Miles Johns
"I am still going Miles Johns here I do think he gets it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Cody picks Miles Johns, citing his improved cardio and wrestling under Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. He notes that Johns used to gas out but has shown better pacing in recent fights. Cody believes Johns can outwork Silva de Andrade by pressing him against the cage and using takedowns, especially since Silva de Andrade is 39 and cuts to 135, which may affect his durability. He expects a low-volume decision win for Johns.

decision prop is decent on both sides
"I'm going to go John's to take the decision... the decision prop is actually decent on both sides."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Vreeland has a love-hate relationship with Miles Johns, noting his low output and tendency to back himself to the fence. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade's experience and durability but leans with Johns due to his physicality, youth, and confidence. He expects a low-output fight and sees Johns as the more physical younger guy.

"I'm gonna lean with Miles John's here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Jacob picks Miles Johns but expects to be nervous during the fight. He recalls Miles gassing in the Cody Gibson fight and needing motivation. He thinks Douglas is a tough bowling ball and Miles may struggle with cardio again. He notes Miles should win but it will be close.

"I'm going Miles Johns he should be able to get it done but I mean if you have a bet on Miles Johns I bet in the middle of the second round you're going to be a little bit [__] …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Johns has evolved and matured, allowing him to execute a game plan to wear on de Andrade's gas tank. By slowing him down early and evading his power, Johns will grind out a decision using clinching, takedowns, footwork, and output.

"I do think that we're seeing an evolution and maturity in Miles John's game which will allow him to execute a game plan here to wear on the gas tank of Deandra"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Paul picks Douglas Silva de Andrade as a dog, noting that he bets him almost every fight because he is always the underdog. He highlights Silva de Andrade's durability and power, and believes that judges are not rewarding wrestling control as much these days. Paul thinks Silva de Andrade can land the bigger shots and win, despite his low volume.

found plus 117
"I bet I bet Douglas Silva de Andrade I found a plus 117 and he's my boy."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, questioning whether Miles Johns can KO him. He notes Johns couldn't KO Cody Gibson and relies too much on overhands. He thinks Silva de Andrade has better wins (Cody Stamann, Sergey Morozov) and will make reads on Johns' power shots. He also mentions Silva de Andrade's competitive fights with Lerone Murphy and Nate Maness.

"I'm GNA go with Douglas Silva Deandra was not impressed by Jon's performance against Cody Gibson"
WIN vs Cody Gibson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 25 of 79 31% 64 of 137 2 of 8 25% 0 1 6:29
Cody Gibson 0 18 of 62 29% 52 of 108 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 5 of 19 26% 14 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:15
Cody Gibson 0 4 of 22 18% 16 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Miles Johns 0 11 of 23 47% 25 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:54
Cody Gibson 0 2 of 8 25% 12 of 21 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:36
3 Miles Johns 0 9 of 37 24% 25 of 65 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:20
Cody Gibson 0 12 of 32 37% 24 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 25 of 79 31% 18 of 66 5 of 9 2 of 4 20 of 72 4 of 6 1 of 1
Cody Gibson 18 of 62 29% 9 of 39 4 of 17 5 of 6 16 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 5 of 19 26% 3 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 3 4 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 4 of 22 18% 3 of 15 0 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 18 3 of 4 1 of 1
Cody Gibson 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 9 of 37 24% 6 of 31 3 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 12 of 32 37% 6 of 19 3 of 10 3 of 3 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Gibson vs. Miles Johns
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johns (-148), Gibson (+124)

Round 1
Johns (13-2, 1 NC; 4-2, 1 NC UFC) was supposed to be coming into this fight with the struggling Gibson (19-9, 1-4 UFC) on a win streak, but a failed drug test after beating Dan Argueta erased the victory. In short order, this standard undercard bantamweight matchup turned to one with greater personal stakes with both. Referee Herb Dean will sort things out, watching over the two men that do not touch gloves. Gibson starts off swirling his hand around, and he walks into a thumping leg kick. Johns swarms into action with a clubbing right hand, and he backs off and circles to the side away from strikes that come his way. Johns ducks down to swat away a leg kick, and he dips down and eats a clean uppercut. Gibson flashes out several jabs and avoids a huge overhand right, and Johns shifts to the side to get away and reset. Gibson overloads on a right hand, and he follows Johns around and grabs hold of one of Johns’ legs to think about a takedown. Johns backs him off with body shots, and he resets and dodges the swinging punches coming his direction. Johns misses a right hook by a matter of centimeters, and Gibson ties him up against the fence and knees him in the dome. Johns scores an uppercut on the break, and Gibson chases after him and jumps away to dodge a right hand. Johns races forward, and his momentum tackles “The Renegade” to the canvas. Johns resides in top position, and Gibson is immediately active with his guard, looking for a butterfly hook, a submission setup or just throwing strikes from off his back. Gibson keeps Johns from landing anything of merit, and he brings up his right leg for a rubber guard momentarily before Johns pushes it aside. Gibson tries to roll over in pursuit of an armbar, and Johns is wise to it as he stays flat on top of his opponent. Johns hammers down an elbow, and when he looks to pass, Gibson turns around to stand up with the wall at his side. Johns tries to drag him back down, and with sheer force of will, he tosses Gibson back down. Johns holds onto him while landing short but heavy right hands, as Gibson works his way up. Gibson ducks away and throws a big knee, and Johns nearly reenacts Fedor vs. Arlovski by blasting Gibson with a right hand that sends him flying. Johns points at him, and Gibson looks surprised but is still with it as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Gibson is the pressure fighter early, showing he has fully recovered from the concussive blow. He prods out a front kick and a few jabs, and Johns is well away from anything of note. Gibson drops down to grab a single, and Johns uppercuts him until he topples to the floor. Gibson grabs him from behind during a scramble, and Johns climbs back up while leaning against the cage. Gibson looks to trip or drag Johns down, but Johns escapes. Johns lands a powerful elbow that splits open a cut on Gibson’s cheek, and he crowds him and knocks him squirrely with another powerful uppercut. Johns continues to hammer his foe with uppercuts as Gibson shoots for a single, and Gibson manages to get the takedown despite absorbing the blows. Gibson follows a scrambling Johns until he takes his back, and he secures the body triangle. Gibson fishes for a choke, and Johns hand-fights and turns to flip Gibson over with a powerful reversal. Johns pins Gibson’s right arm with his knee and slugs him in the chops several times, and he keeps “The Renegade” pinned to the floor while landing shots. Johns wraps up a guillotine with one arm and lets it go to pummel Gibson with left hands until Gibson explodes back to his feet. Johns uses his full weight in an effort to wrench Gibson down, and he breaks and scores two uppercuts. Gibson resets and flicks out a jab, and Johns drills him in the lead leg with a kick and cracks him with two right hands. Gibson gathers his thoughts and leaps forward with a flying knee that skims off the dome, and Johns immediately drops down to take Gibson down with a double when Gibson lands. Gibson scrambles back upright, and Johns leans on him to land short shots until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 3
The two bantamweights clap hands as they reach the final round, and Johns sticks his jab out immediately while Gibson comes after him. Johns clubs him with three right hands and backs off with a jab, and Gibson slaps a high kick off his raised guard. Johns grapples to get hold of a single, tripping Gibson up and driving him to the fence. Gibson keeps his balance but is pressed against the wall, and Johns squeezes on him tight. Gibson manages to fight his way out of the clinch, and Johns comes up short with an uppercut on the way out. Gibson ducks down and into a few more uppercuts from “Chapo,” and he presses forward and watches a right hand slide off his cheek. They trade jabs, and change levels at the same time to no avail. Johns shoots for a single, pushing Gibson up against the wire, and he delivers a few knees to the thigh to keep busy. Dean asks for more work, and Johns connects with three clean shots that pound off Gibson’s head. Gibson breaks away, and he reaches out with a kick that is blocked. Johns rushes forward with a right hand as his lead leg is kicked, and Gibson fires off a body kick. When Gibson charges, Johns cracks him with an overhand right. Johns uses the power shot to frazzle Gibson just enough to change levels in pursuit of a single. Dean clasp for them to do more twice, and Gibson answers him by freaking away. They trade hands, and Johns doggedly goes after the single again. Lifting Gibson off the ground and slamming him down, Johns claims top position and fights off a kimura sweep. Gibson turns all the way over to stand up with less than 20 seconds left, and he walks into a right hand and pushes out a front kick. The fight ends with Johns landing one final right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns (30-27 Johns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns (30-27 Johns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns (30-27 Johns)

The Official Result
Miles Johns def. Cody Gibson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns but is hesitant because he doesn't trust Johns to wrestle consistently. He notes that Johns has the tools to dominate but often abandons wrestling for power punches. He considers a small bet or parlay with another sketchy fighter, but is not fully confident.

possible half unit bet or parlay
"Miles Johns is the better fighter in this matchup he is going to be the pick in this matchup because of that but I don't know if I can trust him to do what he needs to do here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Big Brady picks Cody Gibson, citing Gibson's volume, durability, and cardio advantage. He notes Miles Johns is on short notice and has questionable cardio and durability (both losses inside the distance). He expects Johns to have early success but Gibson to take over and finish him in the third round by knockout.

finish in third round
"I'll say miles JNS probably has some success early I just kind of feel like Cody Gibson's going to take over as the fight goes on uh win that second and then finish miles J's in the third round so …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Cody picks Gibson, citing his forward pressure and wrestling. He notes that Johns has cardio issues and was likely on steroids in his last win. Cody believes Gibson's volume and aggression will earn him rounds, especially if Johns fades. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"Ever so slightly I do give it to Cody Gibson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Miles Johns, citing his athleticism and one-punch power. He acknowledges Gibson's high output but worries about Gibson's durability and tendency to slow down. He thinks Johns can land a big shot or grind out a win, but he is not confident enough to bet the favorite.

"I kind of lean towards miles but I am not gonna bet chalk on Miles John's against an output machine"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Johns is quick, explosive, and has multiple ways to win: wrestling, power, movement. He slows down late but has improved his cardio. Gibson is a veteran boxer with good footwork but can be taken down and ground out. Johns' speed and variety should be too much, but confidence is not high. Expect a decision win for Johns.

Johns by decision
"I don't have Uber confidence in John's here but I think that he can do enough in terms of putting together a body of work to win on the scorecards which is why I'm going to go by with him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Paul agrees, emphasizing that takedowns may not be scored highly by judges, as seen in recent fights. He thinks Gibson's volume will be the deciding factor. Paul also notes Gibson's toughness and recent Fight of the Night bonus.

"Wrestling doesn't matter anymore bro it's Cody Gibson for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

The MMA Guru picks Cody Gibson as an underdog over Miles Johns. He believes Johns is breakable under pressure and that Gibson's size and pace will break him. He notes Gibson's height and reach advantage, and thinks knees in the clinch will be key. He predicts a third-round TKO for Gibson.

third round TKO
"Cody Gibson is who I'm picking here over miles Johns... third round TKO for Cody Gibson"
LOSS vs Dan Argueta
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Argueta 0 33 of 85 38% 38 of 95 2 of 6 33% 2 0 3:55
Miles Johns 0 43 of 92 46% 52 of 104 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Argueta 0 3 of 14 21% 8 of 21 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:14
Miles Johns 0 8 of 21 38% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
2 Dan Argueta 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Miles Johns 0 14 of 28 50% 23 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:50
3 Dan Argueta 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:20
Miles Johns 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Argueta 33 of 85 38% 20 of 67 8 of 12 5 of 6 22 of 70 5 of 8 6 of 7
Miles Johns 43 of 92 46% 32 of 77 5 of 9 6 of 6 40 of 84 2 of 3 1 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Argueta 3 of 14 21% 1 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 8 of 21 38% 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Dan Argueta 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 24 5 of 7 1 of 1
Miles Johns 14 of 28 50% 10 of 22 3 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Dan Argueta 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 33 0 of 0 5 of 6
Miles Johns 21 of 43 48% 14 of 34 2 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo trusts Argueta's wrestling-first game plan and believes Johns' takedown defense is inflated because he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. He expects Argueta to stay on the hips and outwork Johns. Pretty confident pick.

"Dan Argueta pretty confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady picks Miles Johns as an underdog, calling the fight close and likely to go to decision. He likes Johns' defensive wrestling and striking defense, and notes Johns has power and out-lands opponents despite low volume. He thinks Argueta may have wrestling success later as Johns slows down, but believes Johns can win at least two rounds. He prefers the plus money.

"give me miles Jones for a decision but it's gonna be a close fight nonetheless"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Cody picks Dan Argueta, impressed by his toughness and grappling. He notes Argueta's strong wrestling and submission threats, while Johns has cardio issues and slows down. He believes Argueta's pressure and pace will overwhelm Johns in later rounds.

"I got our Guetta I don't mind the pre-line money line I got a feeling that if he gets off to a slow start and maybe loses that first round you can get an even better price tag on him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Daniel picks Argueta but without strong conviction. He thinks Johns has been a letdown in the UFC, with low output and a tendency to break under pressure. He questions whether Argueta can push the pace needed to break Johns, but believes Argueta's hunger and takedown volume might be enough. He acknowledges the line is close to accurate and is not betting it.

"I'm gonna go with arua as a pick so one of us is right here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Lucrative James likes Miles Johns at the line, calling it an overcorrection. He thinks Johns can defend takedowns early and has power on the feet. He notes Johns is a good wrestler himself and could get takedowns. He sees the fight as close, possibly a pick'em, but favors Johns.

"I like Miles Johns at the line anyway."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The host picks Argueta at minus 170, calling it a gift line. He praises Argueta's wrestling, cardio, and pressure, expecting him to wear on Johns and pull away late. He notes Johns' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Argueta is superior in grappling and pace. He predicts a decision win for Argueta after a close first round.

"minus 170 in my opinion is a gift of a line here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Paul picks Argueta but prefers live betting. He worries about Argueta's low volume and Johns's 92% takedown defense. He thinks Johns may win early rounds but Argueta's cardio advantage could take over. He is interested in Argueta by submission or round 3 prop.

Interested in Argueta round 3 prop at +800.
"I'm gonna pick our geta but pre-flop not very interested in the minus 175... I think it's a better spot like if he goes out there takes down miles John's immediately off the Hop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The MMA Guru picks Dan Argueta, criticizing Miles Johns' weak strength of schedule, noting his opponents include Kevin Natividad and Anderson dos Santos. He praises Argueta's training at Jackson Wink MMA, his judo background, and his toughness in taking Damon Jackson to a close decision. He believes Argueta is a gradually improving fighter with good hips and strength, while Johns has plateaued. He expects Argueta to win via grappling and pressure.

"I'm probably gonna go with our getter here I've actually been quite surprised by our getter's career because I didn't think he was going to be much of anything before he joined the UFC..."
WIN vs Vince Morales
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 39 of 131 29% 47 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Vince Morales 0 38 of 103 36% 45 of 110 1 of 12 8% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Miles Johns 0 11 of 43 25% 13 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Vince Morales 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
3 Miles Johns 0 20 of 56 35% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Vince Morales 0 15 of 45 33% 22 of 52 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 39 of 131 29% 28 of 112 9 of 15 2 of 4 36 of 127 3 of 4 0 of 0
Vince Morales 38 of 103 36% 28 of 92 4 of 5 6 of 6 38 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 8 of 32 25% 6 of 27 1 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 10 of 26 38% 7 of 23 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 11 of 43 25% 6 of 35 5 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
Vince Morales 13 of 32 40% 8 of 27 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 20 of 56 35% 16 of 50 3 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Vince Morales 15 of 45 33% 13 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Miles Johns vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johns (-165), Morales (+140)

Round 1
The bantamweight ride continues with two more heavy-handed and fast-paced competitors, as Morales (11-6, 3-4 UFC) throws down with recent Glory MMA trainee Johns (12-2, 3-2 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni steels himself for the action, whether it lasts 15 seconds or 15 minutes, and the two would rather battle it out than touch gloves – the bad blood appears to be high, as the commission had to separate them ahead of the introductions. Now that the fight is on, the two 135ers do not engage, with over 30 seconds elapsing before either man throws a single strike. Johns reaches out with a straight left hand and a leg kick, and Morales responds with a left hab. Johns pushes him back with a jab of his own, and he doubles up on it while Morales is measuring his range. The two collide with heavy blows at the same time, but neither man budges an inch. The inactivity continues as they are not willing to commit on their strikes, and any power punches go well away from their intended targets. Johns steps in with a quick calf kick, and Morales takes a funny step back after absorbing it. A quick jab from “Chapo” makes Morales backpedal, but it is one-and-done until Morales gets his gumption to toss out a single low kick. Johns loads up on a right hand, but Morales ducks it in the nick of time. Johns pokes out with a jab, and he slides back as Morales whips a left hook towards him. Morales attempts to get his own jab doing, snapping it out a few times and ducking when Johns throws a right hand that would have knocked down a building. Johns crashes forward suddenly to snag a single, and Morales hops back and yanks his leg out. Johns loads up on another massive overhand right, and he does not find the target with that but gets off a clean left hook. The activity spikes, relative to the other action, when Johns scores a few left hands before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Johns lords over the center of the cage when the round begins, and neither man is willing to throw anything effective. The two jab at one another, and Johns’ mouth begins to bleed. Johns thumps the lead calf with his shin, and he pushes out a jab that makes Morales blink a few times. As Morales marches forward, he throws hard, and Johns dips down and grabs hold of a single. “Vandetta” wriggles the leg out and races away, resetting in the middle of the Octagon and preparing to throw. As Morales comes forward, he walks into one of Johns’ outstretched fingers, and Tognoni recognizes this and pauses the bout. To give Morales additional time to recover, Tognoni calls in the doctor to check on the condition of Morales’ eye, and Morales explains that he is good to go and holds no ill will towards his opponent. After about 90 seconds, the two get back to business, the jabs come from the fighters at the restart. Johns walks his man down and swats out several jabs, and he releases several booming hooks that all miss one after the other. Morales circles out and into a low kick, but he shows no concern and reaches out with a front kick to the sternum. Morales catches a low kick and swipes out with a right hand, but Johns replies with a swiping right hand on the way out. Johns blocks a high kick and eats a jab, and he charges with a small barrage that bounce off the guard. Johns glances a right hand over the top, and he finds himself eating a kick to the belly for his work. “Chapo” loads up on another right hand, following it with a high crotch single-leg but not succeeding with it. Morales defends with elbows to the side of the head, and this distracts him enough for Johns to elevate him and slam him down one second before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
Jabs are exchanged to start off the final round of what has been a tepid and tentative affair. The striking accuracy totals of both bantamweights are likely extremely low, especially in the significant strike category. Johns ducks in for a single without setting it up, and he lifts Morales’ left leg up in the air and chases him from one side of the cage to the other. Morales trips to the floor, and he bounces right back up without a care in the world. On the reset, Morales picks and pokes with a jab, and Johns sits down with a calf kick that lands with an audible thud. Morales replies with a slapping body kick, but the bantamweights are largely targeting one another with single strikes. Johns misses with a right hand, Morales is similarly inaccurate, and they return to their jab-centric approach. Morales chains a jab into a right hand, and Johns gives chase and swarms him with winging but missing punches. “Chapo” attempts another single, and this is nowhere near secure as Morales springs away. Morales makes him pay for this attempt with another body kick, and Johns blitzes him with a single-leg takedown effort. “Vandetta” keeps himself from hitting the mat once more, and he plants a front kick on the torso while Johns swings at air. They alternate with jabs, and the follow-up strikes from both fighters miss the mark again and again. Johns fires off huge overhand rights, but the evasiveness of Morales keeps him safe from harm. Johns attacks with one final takedown, and he bullies Morales to the wall and holds him there until the fight comes to a merciful end. The judges will have their hands full evaluating this lackluster contest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Miles Johns def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
LOSS vs John Castañeda
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 1:38 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
John Castañeda 0 34 of 85 40% 34 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 1 58 of 147 39% 68 of 159 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 John Castañeda 0 11 of 27 40% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 0 16 of 48 33% 16 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 John Castañeda 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 0 25 of 68 36% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
3 John Castañeda 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 1 17 of 31 54% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
John Castañeda 34 of 85 40% 27 of 76 6 of 8 1 of 1 33 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Miles Johns 58 of 147 39% 40 of 113 6 of 11 12 of 23 47 of 129 7 of 11 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 John Castañeda 11 of 27 40% 8 of 24 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miles Johns 16 of 48 33% 7 of 30 2 of 3 7 of 15 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 John Castañeda 17 of 44 38% 13 of 38 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 25 of 68 36% 19 of 56 2 of 5 4 of 7 21 of 62 2 of 4 2 of 2
3 John Castañeda 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 17 of 31 54% 14 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 19 5 of 7 2 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
John Castaneda vs. Miles Johns

Round 1
The prelims conclude with a bantamweight battle as Fortis MMA standout Johns (12-1, 3-1 UFC) takes on longtime Combate Americas vet Castaneda (18-5, 1-1 UFC). Without wasting any more time, the fighters meet in the middle and touch gloves as referee Mike Beltran keeps a watchful eye. Castaneda swings a head kick that misses the mark by a wide margin, and Johns is holding on to a healthy distance as he circles against the outer edge of the cage. Johns blocks a high kick, but he does not throw much more back than a jab. Castaneda continues throwing his kick up on high, and it does not succeed again. Johns remains elusive but is not swinging much of his own, and he suddenly bursts forward with a left-right combo. Castaneda walks forward and gets his head snapped back with a right hook, and Johns takes a step back to avoid a possible counter. “Sexi Mexi” has a kick slap off Johns’ leg, and Johns is waiting with an overhand right counter that brushes off his chin. Castaneda reaches out with his fingers outstretched, and one grazes the eyeball of his opponent to force a brief stoppage. Johns clears his eye and they resume, as Castaneda gives chase but cannot land much on his defensive foe. Johns blocks a head kick and absorbs a low kick, and he misses with a left hand. The accuracy rate and volume this round are quite low, as both men are largely content to swing with single strikes. Johns looks for an uppercut counter, and he bumps into Castaneda’s chin but does not land flush. A right hand from “Chapo” drills into Castaneda’s jaw, but he wears it well and does not take much more than a step back. Castaneda connects with a loud body kick, stepping back just in the nick of time to avoid a looping punch from the Fortis MMA fighter. They feint and fake at one another, and three head kicks from Castaneda are all blocked right before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
The second frame begins with a glove touch, and Castaneda opens up with a kick that pounds square into Johns’ cup. Johns tries to say he is good to go, but Beltran gives him more time to recover. When they begin again, Johns is there with a big right hand. Castaneda kicks low again but this one is legal, and Johns suddenly burst into activity as he swarms his man with a barrage of punches. Castaneda shakes them off, but Johns is fired up and throwing with bad intentions. “Sexi Mexi” blocks and dodges many of the strikes, and he marches Johns down and gets punched in the stomach. Johns catches a head kick right on the side of his head, and he shakes it off somehow and tries to suck Castaneda into a brawl. Johns sets a trap to lure Castaneda in and bomb him with hooks, but Castaneda does not fall for it and keeps pressuring Johns around the cage. Castaneda lands a right hand on the side of the head, and Johns’ face looks far less confident than the previous round. Castaneda keeps bullying Johns back, and even though not all of his strikes land, he is constantly forcing the Fortis fighter to fight off his back foot. Castaneda clips Johns with a right hand, and Johns staggers back and may have remained upright thanks to the fence behind him. Castaneda charges at him, lands again and pushes Johns to the ground. Castaneda willingly climbs into the guard, slowly working with ground-and-pound all while he passes to half guard. Johns turns to his side and gets elbowed on the side of the head, and with a surge of adrenaline, he kicks Castaneda off of him and powers back to his feet. Johns loads up on a big right hand, but his target is several feet away. Castaneda wades into the danger zone to let loose with a head kick, and several more punches as Johns is predominantly aiming with a home-run shot. The second round ends with Johns winging a right hand that clatters off the guard.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda

Round 3
Castaneda opens the final round the aggressor, forcing Johns to back away as he avoids punches that loom. Castaneda scores a low kick, and he ducks a huge punch from Johns. Castaneda dodges and weaves, cracking Johns with a right hand and staying safe from the reckless, wide hooks coming back at him. Johns wobbles back, and Castaneda lays into him with a knee and a body shot. Johns throws a punch so hard he spins around, and Castaneda charges. With “Sexi Mexi” laying into his tired foe with a couple punches, a powerful knee and an uppercut, Johns’ legs give way beneath him and he falls to the floor.
Castaneda pounces, landing in three-quarter mount while he hooks up an arm-triangle choke. Johns defends off his back by hooking his arm beneath his knee, but his arm grows weary and he retracts it. “Chapo” considers tapping out, but he goes out on his shield, with the arm-triangle choke sending him off to dreamland.
Beltran notices that Johns’ is fast asleep and intervenes, and Castaneda is now the first fighter to ever submit Johns.

The Official Result
John Castaneda def. Miles Johns R3 1:38 via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns for his power and wrestling. He notes Johns has heavy hands and explosive takedowns, coming off two knockout wins. Castañeda is a fun, high-pressure fighter with fast hands and takedowns but lacks power. Angelo believes Johns' power and wrestling will match Castañeda's pressure and secure the win.

"i like miles john's here this entire card is stacked with fun fights and this is absolutely another one i like john's power and his wrestling to match castaneda's forward pressure and toughness this should be a fun one but …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Johns' volume is low and he can be edged out. He thinks Castañeda is a live underdog because Johns' style leaves room for an upset. He is leaning Castañeda but not ready to pull the trigger fully.

"i'm leaning with you i've got uh i'm going with castaneda as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Levi picks Miles Johns, citing his athleticism, speed, and higher pace. He notes Johns has five-round experience and has beaten tough guys like Adrian Yanez. Levi thinks Castañeda is a step behind athletically and often fights on his back foot. He expects Johns to push the pace and win a decision, though he acknowledges Castañeda's technical skills and the possibility of an upset.

"give me miles john's to come out here and win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Lock of the Night picks Johns, citing his wrestling advantage and improving striking. He notes that Castañeda is the better technical striker but Johns can initiate takedowns and control the fight. He likes Johns by decision at +130.

Johns by decision +130
"i think the ace in the pocket here for john's has got to be the takedowns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Paul sees Castañeda as a live underdog. He notes that Miles Johns has low volume and can make mental mistakes. He thinks Castañeda has decent power and cardio, and if Johns makes a mistake, Castañeda can capitalize. He is leaning towards Castañeda but not fully committed.

"i am looking at john castaneda as a live underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miles Johns

The MMA Guru picks Miles Johns, citing his momentum and power advantage. He references Johns' wins over Anderson dos Santos and Kevin Natividad, and notes Castañeda was schooled by Nathaniel Wood. He predicts a 29-28 decision with Johns winning the first two rounds due to power, and Castañeda possibly taking the third.

decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna go with miles john's here 29-28 i'm gonna go miles john's wins the first two rounds here"
Vince Morales - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Thicknesse 0 46 of 117 39% 57 of 132 0 of 6 0% 4 1 3:01
Vince Morales 0 48 of 121 39% 56 of 134 2 of 2 100% 0 1 3:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Thicknesse 0 6 of 14 42% 13 of 23 0 of 2 0% 4 1 2:20
Vince Morales 0 5 of 15 33% 7 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:44
2 Colby Thicknesse 0 27 of 54 50% 29 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:41
Vince Morales 0 18 of 55 32% 19 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Colby Thicknesse 0 13 of 49 26% 15 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 25 of 51 49% 30 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Thicknesse 46 of 117 39% 15 of 73 21 of 32 10 of 12 43 of 112 3 of 5 0 of 0
Vince Morales 48 of 121 39% 37 of 103 9 of 15 2 of 3 42 of 112 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Thicknesse 6 of 14 42% 2 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vince Morales 5 of 15 33% 4 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Colby Thicknesse 27 of 54 50% 8 of 30 15 of 19 4 of 5 27 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vince Morales 18 of 55 32% 14 of 47 3 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Colby Thicknesse 13 of 49 26% 5 of 35 4 of 10 4 of 4 11 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
Vince Morales 25 of 51 49% 19 of 43 5 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 46 2 of 4 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse

Round 1
After a tough loss for the local in the last bout, Thicknesse (8-1; 1-1 UFC) will try to reignite the Aussie faithful against Morales (16-10; 3-8 UFC) in this bantamweight prelim. Dan Movahedi is the referee. Both men are in orthodox stance, and Thicknesse reaches out and touches Morales’ guard with an immediate high kick. Morales is pressing the issue, marching forward and crowding the lanky Australian. Morales swings his way into the pocket and backs Thicknesse to the fence. Thicknesse changes levels and Morales counters with a front headlock. Thicknesse pops his head out and grabs a guillotine choke of his own, falling to his seat near the fence. Morales pulls his head out of danger and stands over Thicknesse. Thicknesse explodes up and moves to Morales’ back, sinking his hooks and looking for a choke. Morales shakes him off over the top, but Thicknesse follows him beautifully, snaring him in a triangle choke. Morales fights the hold, rolling over, and Thicknesse switches to a triangle armbar. It’s big trouble again, but Morales keeps working, doesn’t panic, and after a few tense moments, escapes. Thicknesse bails on the submission attempt but takes top position and starts dropping punches. Thicknesse takes Morales’ back with under a minute to go and is fishing for a choke. Morales fights off the attempts and sweeps to top position with 30 seconds to go. The round ends with the American in half guard. 10-9 Thicknesse.

Round 2
Morales is on the front foot once again to start Round 2, throwing punches and forcing Thicknesse to back off. Thicknesse circles, refusing to be corralled against the fence. Morales pops his man with a nice jab, then counters a low kick with a solid right hand. A minute in, Thicknesse grabs a snatch single-leg, but Morales hops away and frees his leg with ease. Morales seems to have the sharper hands here, as he is landing clean single strikes and getting away unscathed. Thicknesse throws a body kick, then lands a spinning back elbow when Morales catches his leg. Thicknesse cliches, takes an overhook and tries to throw Morales, but Morales is wise to it. They stumble to the fence together and Thicknesse takes Morales’ back standing. He can’t secure the position, however, and Morales moves away from the fence. Morales catches Thicknesse coming in with a couple of good punches. Morales counters a front kick with a right hand. Under 30 seconds to go, and they exchange glancing shots until the horn. 10-9 Morales.

Round 3
They touch gloves to open the final round and Morales comes forward swinging. Thicknesse stands his ground and fires off a kick to the midsection. Morales counters with punches. Morales takes the center of the cage and Thicknesse throws a spinning elbow that comes up badly short. Morales is dialed in with his boxing, landing two-handed combinations that aren’t carrying a ton of power, but are accurate. Thicknesse is not giving back much on the feet, missing with single overhand power shots. They clinch near the fence and Morales tosses Thicknesse to the canvas, then declines to follow him down, instead letting him get back up. Morales catches Thicknesse with a short right hand that wobbles him badly. He gives chase, swarming with punches, then grabs a front headlock and attacks with a guillotine choke. Thicknesse survives, scrambles away but gives up his back. Morales takes back mount and fights for a rear-naked choke. There’s under a minute left, but Thicknesse is calmly fighting the choke. Morales gives up on the choke and returns to his feet, dropping a few final punches before the horn. 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales).

The Official Result
Colby Thicknesse def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Colby Thicknesse

Angelo picks Colby Thicknesse due to his wrestling advantage and ability to exploit Vince Morales's poor takedown defense. He notes that Morales is on a three-fight losing streak and tends to fizzle if he doesn't get an early finish. Angelo expects a close fight but believes Colby's wrestling and potential Australian judge bias will secure the win.

"Kobe's going to be the pick. I think we're good there."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Big Brady picks Vince Morales to win by submission in the second round. He criticizes Colby Thicknesse's striking as nonexistent and his wrestling as poor, citing low takedown success rates. Brady praises Morales' underrated grappling and front chokes, and expects him to capitalize on Thicknesse's desperation in grappling exchanges.

Morales by submission, round 2
"I'm going to take Vince Morales to win this fight and actually win this fight by submission in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Colby Thicknesse

Cody picks Thicknesse but is hesitant, noting Morales' submission threat. He believes Thicknesse's volume and home crowd will edge a decision, but warns against shooting into submissions.

"I did take Kobe thickness but as far as live underdogs go that I'm not taking but I do believe are definitely a threat yeah Vince is in that category."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Colby Thicknesse

Connor picks Thicknesse, noting that Morales is a total head case who cannot stick to a winning strategy. He thinks Thicknesse's doggedness and toughness could cause Morales to overthink and make mistakes. He points out that Thicknesse is hard to finish and constantly scrambles, which might frustrate Morales.

"I just want to say that he is consistently tough and trying to make the fight happen and I think there's a non-zero chance that it might be Alice forgets to continue beating him as you know, it's very true."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Daniel Vreeland picks Vince Morales to upset Colby Thicknesse, believing Morales is the better fighter despite his poor record. He notes Morales' veteran savvy and submission threat, while Thicknesse's skills are questionable. He admits it's hard to have confidence in Morales.

"I'm actually going to go Vince Morales here to upset Colobby Thickness in Australia."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Lucrative James picks Vince Morales to win via decision. He expects a close fight where Morales' experience and striking edge, combined with his ability to get back to his feet after takedowns, will earn him a split decision. He notes Morales is likely the underdog, which adds value.

"I'll go with Vince Morales cuz I think he's going to be the underdog. In a split decision, you want to pick the underdog. So yeah, Vince Morales via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vince Morales

The host likes Morales as an underdog, citing his veteran experience, aggression, and superior grappling. He expects Morales to cut off the cage, keep Thickness from sticking and moving, and eventually win by submission. The host notes Thickness's raw level and that Morales has faced tougher competition.

Submission win
"I like Morales here. I think we're going to see him very aggressive with his submission game as well. And I think that will lead to Morales winning this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Paul picks Morales as a small underdog, citing his submission threat and Thicknesse's tendency to shoot into chokes. He likes the Morales by submission prop.

submission prop
"I'm going to be taking the best available Morales by subprop and probably calling it a day."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Vince Morales

The MMA Guru picks Vince Morales as an underdog despite his three-fight losing streak. He believes Morales is better than his record, citing close fights against Elijah Smith and Raul Rosas Jr. He criticizes Colby Thicknesse's performance against Ilia Topuria and a tough fight against an African prospect, suggesting Thicknesse is overhyped.

"I'm going with Vince Morales as an underdog. Okay? I know people are high on Colby Thicknesse."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Vince Morales

Zane picks Morales despite his headcase tendencies, because Thicknesse is a bad athlete with no discernible skill set. He notes that Morales has a significant technical edge everywhere and should be able to win, but acknowledges that Morales often loses fights he should win due to mental lapses. He thinks Thicknesse's constant errors might give Morales opportunities.

"I got to pick him to win. I shouldn't but like him to this is this is the level where being a quadruple a guy is still supposed to be a guy who generally beats these yeah this level of …"
LOSS vs Raul Rosas Jr.
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 20 of 39 51% 26 of 46 4 of 8 50% 0 0 9:38
Vince Morales 0 17 of 31 54% 39 of 53 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raul Rosas Jr. 0 11 of 18 61% 15 of 22 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:33
Vince Morales 0 0 of 4 0% 8 of 12 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
2 Raul Rosas Jr. 0 5 of 14 35% 6 of 15 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:28
Vince Morales 0 11 of 17 64% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Raul Rosas Jr. 0 4 of 7 57% 5 of 9 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:37
Vince Morales 0 6 of 10 60% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raul Rosas Jr. 20 of 39 51% 12 of 30 5 of 5 3 of 4 16 of 34 0 of 0 4 of 5
Vince Morales 17 of 31 54% 15 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 30 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raul Rosas Jr. 11 of 18 61% 6 of 12 4 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4
Vince Morales 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Raul Rosas Jr. 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
Vince Morales 11 of 17 64% 10 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Raul Rosas Jr. 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 6 of 10 60% 5 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Vince Morales vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas Jr. (-375), Morales (+295)

Round 1
As he will likely encounter while literally growing up with the UFC, Rosas Jr. (10-1, 4-1 UFC) faces a foe tonight 14 years his senior. The promotion teed up Morales (16-9, 3-7 UFC), a fighter who has only won three times in 10 UFC appearances thus far, to serve as fodder for the youngster. The best-laid plans of mice and matchmakers often go awry, and there is no such thing as a “sure thing” in this chaotic sport of ours. The bantamweight come together under the watchful eye of referee Mike Beltran and do not touch gloves. Morales takes to the enter of the cage and paws out a jab, and he is met with a front kick to the body and a shin aimed at his chin. Rosas kicks his front leg a couple times, and he shoots for a takedown that Morales easily shucks out of the way. Rosas sprints forward to put two punches on “Vandetta,” and he chains a few more punches together before lifting Morales up in the air and slamming him down in the middle of the Octagon. Rosas lands in side control, not concerned about a feeble guillotine set up by Morales and suddenly searching for a submission. Morales reacts well enough to drag Rosas back to his guard for a second, and Rosas leaps over to the side again. Morales fights with his legs to stifle a mount attempt, and he wraps up Rosas neck with his arms and finds himself in Von Preux choke danger. Morales sees this setting up and releases his own grip to not fall in the trap. Rosas keeps moving, and he allows Morales to get to his knees so he can take the back. Rosas sneaks in a hook and pulls Morales to his side, with Morales intent on turning him about. Rosas forces Morales to turn, not getting his other hook in, and he keeps on the back while continuously threatening. Morales sits up and looks to twist again, and Rosas hooks one leg around him to keep maintaining his position. Morales breaks out of it and pursues a single, and Rosas keeps his body weight down and slams his fist on Morales’ ribs. Morales turns Rosas over and holds his shoulder down on Rosas’ neck, looking for open strikes until Rosas turns to his knees. Morales pursues a necktie submission, gripping it and leaning back to complete it, but time expires before he gets it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas

Round 2
Morales comes out of his corner jabbing, and Rosas has his distance-keeping front kick outstretched. Rosas jabs him back, and he walks into a right hand and pays it no mind. Morales loops a right hand around the guard, and he is answered by a low kick. Rosas comes up short with a step-in knee and a punch, while Morales prods him with his jab. Rosas wraps his foot around the shin of his foe, and he gets his head snapped back with a fierce right hand. Rosas backs off, and Morales slings a head kick at him and starts to defend against a takedown he is knows is coming. Still, the youngster presses Morales from one side of the cage to the other, resting his weight on the veteran and looking for a body lock and a trip when the single or double does not materialize. A subsequent effort, a single-leg takedown, allows Rosas to take his man down. Rosas hunts for a back take, sliding a hook in from behind but the second is fought by Morales. Rosas re-settles himself to hang on from a shoulder, and the two keep scrambling until Rosas laces his legs around Morales’ left thigh. Morales rolls his eyes as he is getting controlled without being able to fight back, as Rosas follows his moves and threatens to loop his arm around the chin. Morales defends with two hands on one wrist, and he posts off to get to his feet all while Rosas is still imposing his weight on his back. Morales shimmies and shakes to wrench the youngster off of him, only to get dragged down and put on his back. Morales wags his finger at the conclusion of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas

Round 3
Morales is even more fired up to get to the last round, and he runs at the 20-year-old flailing his fists. Rosas keeps his back to the cage, strafing to the side and into a head kick. Rosas shoots, and Morales sets up a Peruvian necktie and tries to hit it. When that first one does not come together, Morales locks up an anaconda choke and transitions it to a brabo choke while on his back. Without any legs in play, hooked around Rosas’ back or otherwise presenting additional pressure, Rosas is able to stay composed and slowly work his way out of it. Rosas unleashes a powerful elbow when reclaiming top position, and Morales tries to roll out of the predicament and gives his back up. Rosas does not hang onto the back this time and instead lets Morales roll through. Morales hooks the leg to set up some leglock, and Rosas steps over it and puts Morales back on his side. When Morales gets up, Rosas bullies him right back to his seat. Morales is irritated that he cannot get Rosas off of him, and he stands up and uses the fence to his side to scrape Rosas off. Rosas shoots for a single, and Morales attempts a desperation necktie. Rosas turns through it, and Morales fastens a brabo choke again but does not have a lot of time left. Rosas signals a thumbs-up as the choke is pressed on his windpipe, and the match comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)

The Official Result
Raul Rosas Jr. def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

James picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win but is hesitant due to the minus 400 price tag and elevation concerns. He notes Rosas has cardio issues that could be exacerbated at elevation, while Morales has good cardio and is tough to finish. James thinks Rosas will likely win via submission or decision but cannot recommend betting him at such short odds. He suggests that if Rosas doesn't finish early, he could fade in later rounds.

Prediction: Rosas via submission or decision. Advises against betting Rosas at minus 400 due to cardio and elevation risks.
"I'm going to pick Ral roses Jr to win the fight via submission or decision but there's no way I'm laying minus 400 chalk on this guy."
LOSS vs Elijah Smith
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vince Morales 0 40 of 86 46% 42 of 90 2 of 4 50% 3 2 3:07
Elijah Smith 0 40 of 97 41% 52 of 110 3 of 4 75% 1 2 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vince Morales 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elijah Smith 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Vince Morales 0 4 of 5 80% 6 of 8 2 of 3 66% 2 2 2:02
Elijah Smith 0 1 of 5 20% 7 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 2 2:08
3 Vince Morales 0 17 of 41 41% 17 of 42 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:05
Elijah Smith 0 20 of 49 40% 26 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vince Morales 40 of 86 46% 30 of 74 8 of 10 2 of 2 36 of 81 4 of 5 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 40 of 97 41% 29 of 81 2 of 3 9 of 13 37 of 94 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vince Morales 19 of 40 47% 13 of 33 4 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 19 of 43 44% 13 of 33 1 of 2 5 of 8 18 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Vince Morales 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vince Morales 17 of 41 41% 13 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 20 of 49 40% 15 of 43 1 of 1 4 of 5 18 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Smith (-180), Morales (+150)

Round 1
Speed kills at the lower divisions, and if their pasts are any indication, Morales (16-8, 3-6 UFC) and Smith (7-1, 0-0 UFC) would like nothing more than to clock out early and go home today. The former, currently on his second stint with the promotion, did just what any savvy fighter should do after a release: go to the regional circuit, rack up a bunch of wins in rapid succession and get a call back to the big leagues. In less than two years, Morales was in, out and in again. Referee Mark Smith will know first whether the decision to bring him back to the roster was a good idea. Gloves are not touched, and Morales is instead the aggressor as he backs Smith up to the cage. Smith presses back with a jab, and Morales dodges and moves while staying in Smith’s face. Smith prods his jabs to chain in an uppercut, snapping Morales’ head back and surprising him. Morales gathers his thoughts and keeps advancing, not cutting his foe off and drawing a finger wag from the newcomer. Smith lets go with a body kick, and when he slides away, Morales kicks him square in the groin. The clacking echo cutting through the arena, Smith collapses to the mat in serious trouble. Smith writhes in pain and slams his fist on the mat several times, and he returns to his feet a minute into the recovery time. Smith lowers himself back to a crouch as he is still greatly struggling to get his wind back, and referee Smith is attentive and giving the fighter updates as to his time. After two minutes and 45 seconds, Smith is ready to fight and claps hands with his foe to restart. Morales gets back to where he left off with pressure, and Smith sits down on a clean left hand counter that makes Morales’ nose match his red hair and shorts. Smith times a jump knee counter to clip Morales on the way in, missing by a matter of millimeters. Morales continues crowding the newcomer, until Smith frames off and his fingers slide into the eye socket. Referee Smith calls in the physician to check on Morales’ condition and help clear his vision, who complains that the poke affected both eyes. Right before the restart, Morales mentions that they are even, and they resume fighting with 2:15 to go in the round. Smith sticks out several sharp jabs to intercept Morales, only to get caught with two right hooks that shake him up. While Smith counters with a check left hook, Morales greets him with a right hand. The jabs of Smith have opened a cut around Morales’ mouth, but he pays it no mind as he hooks his right hand around the jab. Morales jabs his way into a counterattack, and Smith backs him away with a pair of chopping leg kicks. Smith is warned for outstretched fingers again, and Morales may have suffered another uncalled eye poke as he is struggling to blink out his left eye. While he is dealing with that, Smith shoots for an easy takedown he uses to throw “Vandetta” to the floor. What he doesn’t have is time, as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smith
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Smith

Round 2
The second round begins where the first left off, with Morales directly in Smith’s face putting heat on him. Morales does not crowd in recklessly, keeping his guard up to block a head kick or oncoming jabs. As Smith circles away, Morales catches him with a left hand that forces him to stick around in the clinch. Smith grabs hold of his foe and lifts him up like a Country Breakfast, embodying his inner Matt Hughes to carry his opponent around the cage to his corner. Smith scrambles to take the back, and he wraps up a rear-naked choke that is more of a face crank. Morales works his neck free and scrambles with a kimura sweep attempt to turn himself over. Smith stands up and finds himself stuck on his back suddenly when Morales dumps him to the floor. Morales snakes his arms around the neck to tie up a brabo choke, and he steps over to the side to try to complete the submission. Smith lays flat on his stomach before exploding the wrong direction, keeping himself calm and not exposing himself to greater danger. Morales keeps the choke wrapped up around the neck even as Smith wisely shifts through it, and the younger fighter survives the sub and claims top position. When Morales attempts to stand, Smith looks to drag him down from behind, and this results in Morales setting up another brabo choke. Morales drives a few knees into the chin before rolling all the way through for a Japanese necktie with his legs and arms wrapped up to lock up the unorthodox maneuver. Smith works his way out of the submission and stands up, slapping Morales on the side of the head and rolling through an attempted Morales throw to control him from behind at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
The fighters come out firing to open the last round, with Smith whiffing on haymakers immediately. Morales walks forward and feints to draw out reactions, and he strings combinations together as Smith does the same. The pace wanes as Smith does not appear to land these big strikes often, with his sharp, direct strikes far more effective. Smith rips an uppercut that shreds a cut on Morales’ nose, and he times the strike to shoot in for a double that puts Morales on his seat. While Morales works his way up, his nose is bent entirely the wrong direction and leaking all over the mat. There is no quit despite punches likely hurting far more than usual on the shattered nose, and Morales takes them flush and still cruises forward. Morales shoots for a takedown, forces a counter shot and lays on top of Smith’s back to go for a Japanese or perhaps Peruvian variation of the necktie. Morales bails on this sub and sways around to the back, but Smith explodes his way back up. Smith puts fists on face, blood spraying and Morales trying desperately to keep a stiff upper lip. Smith pokes and prods with jabs, and Morales points at the floor as if to lure Smith into a defense-free brawl. When Smith does not oblige, Morales chases after him lobbing big strikes at him. Smith defends a suplex by landing on his hands, and Morales shockingly grabs him from behind and wraps an unorthodox side-naked-slash-bulldog choke under the chin. Smith’s eyes go wide, as the choke is tight even though no hooks are in. Knowing time is on his side, Smith works Morales to the body until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Morales)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Smith)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Smith)

The Official Result
Elijah Smith def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo picks Elijah Smith based on his non-stop wrestling, but he is hesitant because Smith is a UFC debutant with only eight fights. He notes that Vince Morales is a dog and has shown toughness. He does not bet this fight because of the uncertainty, but he leans Smith due to his wrestling.

"I am going to pick Elijah because of the wrestling specifically and because of the fact that I know he'll just shoot and then right behind it shoot again but I'm likely going to avoid betting here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Big Brady picks Morales as a dog, arguing Smith is too green with poor cardio and unproven striking. Morales has better cardio and striking, and Smith has slowed down in multiple fights. He notes the line is moving toward Morales, indicating public agreement.

Morales by decision
"give me Vince Morales here as a dog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Vince Morales

Morales is more well-rounded and experienced. He will wear Smith down in the striking realm and eventually find a submission in the second or third round. Smith has the hardware but Morales gets the vet lesson win.

Morales by submission, round 2 or 3
"I think Morales will be able to wear Smith down stay competitive in the striking realm and eventually get to a submission game... look for Morales to wear Smith down and eventually find the submission in the second or third …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The MMA Guru picks Elijah Smith over Vince Morales, citing Smith's prospect potential and impressive Contender Series performance. He notes Morales is a tricky veteran but old, and Smith showed grappling ability despite some weaknesses. He believes Smith's talent and UFC contract motivation will carry him.

"I'm going to go with Elijah Smith the prospect over Vince Morales"
LOSS vs Taylor Lapilus
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Taylor Lapilus 0 94 of 202 46% 99 of 208 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Vince Morales 0 39 of 141 27% 49 of 154 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Taylor Lapilus 0 35 of 81 43% 35 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 11 of 45 24% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Taylor Lapilus 0 30 of 58 51% 31 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 16 of 41 39% 20 of 46 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:24
3 Taylor Lapilus 0 29 of 63 46% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Vince Morales 0 12 of 55 21% 17 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Taylor Lapilus 94 of 202 46% 63 of 165 24 of 29 7 of 8 80 of 181 14 of 21 0 of 0
Vince Morales 39 of 141 27% 25 of 113 10 of 19 4 of 9 34 of 124 5 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Taylor Lapilus 35 of 81 43% 23 of 66 6 of 8 6 of 7 32 of 77 3 of 4 0 of 0
Vince Morales 11 of 45 24% 6 of 33 3 of 7 2 of 5 10 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Taylor Lapilus 30 of 58 51% 19 of 46 11 of 12 0 of 0 25 of 52 5 of 6 0 of 0
Vince Morales 16 of 41 39% 8 of 27 6 of 10 2 of 4 13 of 34 3 of 7 0 of 0
3 Taylor Lapilus 29 of 63 46% 21 of 53 7 of 9 1 of 1 23 of 52 6 of 11 0 of 0
Vince Morales 12 of 55 21% 11 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 47 1 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Taylor Lapilus vs. Vince Morales

Round 1
Many have forgotten this, but both Lapilus (20-4, 5-2 UFC) and Morales (16-7, 3-5 UFC) are on their second stints with the promotion. The Frenchman was let go in 2016 despite going 3-1 with the organization, while “Vandetta” is on the rough side of .500 looking up. The bantamweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Marc Goddard, and they touch ‘em up while he dons his proverbial hard hat. Even in the prelims, the crowd is nearly deafening in support of the French fighter. There is no glove touch, as Lapilus takes to the center of the cage and puts a series of hands on the American. Lapilus ends his combo with a thudding head kick, and Morales pays it no mind. Lapilus goes high with another kick that glances off the shoulder, and a third is close to chin-checking Morales. Lapilus chops at the front calf, and the two are coiled springs ready to release as they stand in front of one another. Lapilus prods out jabs, and Morales reaches him with a right hand over the top. Morales has a kick caught, and he gets tossed to the floor and kicked on his way down. Morales stands back up and delivers a clean uppercut on the chops, only to get met with two sharp elbows from up close. They nail one another with calf kicks as fans are chanting mean things, and the fighters do not slow down from engaging. Lapilus lands first, and he uses his distance strikes to keep Morales off of him. Morales gets off at the end of a left hand, and the audience shifts from saying rude words to singing the French national anthem. Lapilus turns up the heat as the song draws to a close, ringing Morales’ bell with a fast flurry of fists. Lapilus plants a knee to the chest, and a left hand opens a cut on Morales’ right eyebrow. Lapilus drives a one-two down the pipe, and he blocks a high body kick to give two punches and a knee back. Morales drops to a knee and explodes back up before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus

Round 2
Morales starts the round aggressively, only to walk into a number of quick jabs that rap off his forehead. Lapilus splits the guard with a left hand, and he slips Morales’ punches to back him off. Morales just manages to avoid a high kick as he slides to the side, but he cannot stop a body kick from slamming into his ribs. Morales uses the kick to lift Lapilus off the ground, where he throws the Frenchman to the mat and tries to quiet the raucous crowd. Lapilus stands back up, his back to the fence, and he elbows Morales hard on the dome. Morales responds with a knee, and Lapilus tags him with two more elbows to the cut. Lapilus lets his hands go, walking Morales down with short salvos of feet and fists. Two jabs from Lapilus get through, and Morales scores back. The French fighter scores with a pair of body kicks, and he slips and jumps right back to his feet before Morales can get to him. “Double Impact” drives a double right hand over the top, and he follows the second blow with a left hand and a body kick. Hand-fighting with his opponent, Lapilus times a left hand and a huge knee that smashes into Morales’ face and sends a gob of saliva soaring across the cage. Morales is tough as a stale baguette, not even wavering from the powerful strike. Instead, he comes back harder than before, winging a huge right hand that Lapilus cannot quite avoid. Lapilus absorbs it and fires back, leading to Morales shooting in for a single-leg takedown. Morales wraps up one leg but is unable to ground him, and Lapilus elbows him to force a break and spin away as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus

Round 3
It takes little more than 10 seconds for Morales to shoot for a takedown, opening the round up by putting Lapilus on the defensive. Morales succeeds in driving the French fighter to the wall, where he elevates Lapilus’ right leg and deposits him to the floor. In the span of a second, Lapilus powers right back to his feet, and he pushes Morales away. As Morales backpedals, Lapilus drives a knee to the liver and puts his hands on Morales’ chin. Lapilus uses his close range to slash at Morales with elbows, and his head movement and footwork keeps him safe from the telegraphed, winging strikes of “Vandetta.” Lapilus jabs with the ball of his foot, sticking and poking with strikes from his preferred berth. Lapilus lands the better of an exchange with a left hook, but Morales connects with his own power punches to get Lapilus’ attention. Four punches get through before Lapilus can make him pay with a knee, and blood flows from the American’s cut once more. Lapilus times a left hand to drive a knee into Morales’ sternum, and Morales desperately responds with a tackling takedown where he pushes Lapilus from one end of the cage to the other. Morales manages to take Lapilus for a ride, lifting him up and slamming him down while landing in a top-side leg triangle out of the Khabib Nurmagomedov playbook. Lapilus does not care about the leg position, exploding upright and surging into action. Two big knees score cleanly for the Frenchman, and Morales knows this is his last time to shine. Morales rushes after Lapilus, putting everything he has into swinging fists. Lapilus absorbs some punishment and doles it out, with the two laying into one another until a clinch ensues. Lapilus pushes out of it, and he spins with an elbow that grazes the melon of “Vandetta.” The match draws to a close, and the crowd is on its feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus (30-27 Lapilus)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus (30-27 Lapilus)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lapilus (30-27 Lapilus)

The Official Result
Taylor Lapilus def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Angelo is very confident in Taylor Lapilus. He praises Lapilus's footwork, counter-striking, and takedown defense. He expects Vince Morales to come out looking for an early finish, but Lapilus will weather the storm and piece him apart. The only concern is if Morales has improved like Youssef Zalal did after being cut, but Angelo doesn't think so.

"I think Taylor runs right through him... he weathers an early storm and then pieces Vince apart the rest of that fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Big Brady picks Taylor Lapilus by decision, noting Lapilus has superior striking and takedown defense. He mentions Morales has been on a good run since being cut but is being brought back against a tough opponent in Paris. He expects Lapilus to win a clear decision with home-cage advantage.

Lapilus by decision
"lapis lapis by decision I think is the the pretty pretty clear pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Cody picks Lapilus, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes that Morales' wrestling hasn't translated to the UFC and that Lapilus should outpoint him with volume and movement. He expects a unanimous decision win for Lapilus.

"lapas just it may be uh decision it might just be Point fighting from the outside"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Connor agrees, noting that Morales is a good regional fighter but not a good UFC fighter. He points out that Morales has a slow pace, can get kicked to hell, and is easy to put on his heels. Lapilus should be able to out-slick him.

"Gotta take Lapolas here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Daniel Vreeland picks Taylor Lapilus to win by decision. He thinks Lapilus is a solid striker with good defense and takedown defense, and that Morales is a step below. He notes that Lapilus has been taken down in every UFC fight but has good get-up game. He expects Lapilus to use leg kicks and movement to win a clear decision.

"I think laus win I was like maybe they give us a decent price on laus decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

JP picks Taylor Lapilus because he thinks Lapilus is better everywhere and has power. He notes Morales was released from the UFC in 2022 and came back, which he views negatively. He predicts Lapilus will starch him by KO.

"I think lapis is uh starching him I think he's better on the feet I think he's powerful I like lapis a lot give me a lapolis by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Paul agrees, noting Lapilus' excellent get-up game and striking. He believes Morales' wrestling won't be effective and that Lapilus will out-strike him clearly. He expects a unanimous decision.

"lapis should double him up in strikes and uh probably win a very clear unanimous decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

The MMA Guru picks Taylor Lapilus over Vince Morales, describing Lapilus as awkward and tricky to fight. He notes Morales' past UFC struggles and Lapilus' reach advantage despite being shorter. He predicts a split decision win for Lapilus.

"I'm going to go with Taylor laulis getting this one done split the decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Zane thinks Lapilus is a quintessential back-foot counter striker and that Morales will struggle to come forward effectively. He notes that Morales has a fatally flawed game, is susceptible to leg kicks, and fights at a slow pace. Zane expects Lapilus to win a technical showcase.

"It's a pretty easy technical showcase for him to get Morales chasing him and just not really being able to do anything effective through chasing him at all."
LOSS vs Miles Johns
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 39 of 131 29% 47 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Vince Morales 0 38 of 103 36% 45 of 110 1 of 12 8% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Miles Johns 0 11 of 43 25% 13 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Vince Morales 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
3 Miles Johns 0 20 of 56 35% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Vince Morales 0 15 of 45 33% 22 of 52 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 39 of 131 29% 28 of 112 9 of 15 2 of 4 36 of 127 3 of 4 0 of 0
Vince Morales 38 of 103 36% 28 of 92 4 of 5 6 of 6 38 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 8 of 32 25% 6 of 27 1 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 10 of 26 38% 7 of 23 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 11 of 43 25% 6 of 35 5 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
Vince Morales 13 of 32 40% 8 of 27 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 20 of 56 35% 16 of 50 3 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Vince Morales 15 of 45 33% 13 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Miles Johns vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johns (-165), Morales (+140)

Round 1
The bantamweight ride continues with two more heavy-handed and fast-paced competitors, as Morales (11-6, 3-4 UFC) throws down with recent Glory MMA trainee Johns (12-2, 3-2 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni steels himself for the action, whether it lasts 15 seconds or 15 minutes, and the two would rather battle it out than touch gloves – the bad blood appears to be high, as the commission had to separate them ahead of the introductions. Now that the fight is on, the two 135ers do not engage, with over 30 seconds elapsing before either man throws a single strike. Johns reaches out with a straight left hand and a leg kick, and Morales responds with a left hab. Johns pushes him back with a jab of his own, and he doubles up on it while Morales is measuring his range. The two collide with heavy blows at the same time, but neither man budges an inch. The inactivity continues as they are not willing to commit on their strikes, and any power punches go well away from their intended targets. Johns steps in with a quick calf kick, and Morales takes a funny step back after absorbing it. A quick jab from “Chapo” makes Morales backpedal, but it is one-and-done until Morales gets his gumption to toss out a single low kick. Johns loads up on a right hand, but Morales ducks it in the nick of time. Johns pokes out with a jab, and he slides back as Morales whips a left hook towards him. Morales attempts to get his own jab doing, snapping it out a few times and ducking when Johns throws a right hand that would have knocked down a building. Johns crashes forward suddenly to snag a single, and Morales hops back and yanks his leg out. Johns loads up on another massive overhand right, and he does not find the target with that but gets off a clean left hook. The activity spikes, relative to the other action, when Johns scores a few left hands before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Johns lords over the center of the cage when the round begins, and neither man is willing to throw anything effective. The two jab at one another, and Johns’ mouth begins to bleed. Johns thumps the lead calf with his shin, and he pushes out a jab that makes Morales blink a few times. As Morales marches forward, he throws hard, and Johns dips down and grabs hold of a single. “Vandetta” wriggles the leg out and races away, resetting in the middle of the Octagon and preparing to throw. As Morales comes forward, he walks into one of Johns’ outstretched fingers, and Tognoni recognizes this and pauses the bout. To give Morales additional time to recover, Tognoni calls in the doctor to check on the condition of Morales’ eye, and Morales explains that he is good to go and holds no ill will towards his opponent. After about 90 seconds, the two get back to business, the jabs come from the fighters at the restart. Johns walks his man down and swats out several jabs, and he releases several booming hooks that all miss one after the other. Morales circles out and into a low kick, but he shows no concern and reaches out with a front kick to the sternum. Morales catches a low kick and swipes out with a right hand, but Johns replies with a swiping right hand on the way out. Johns blocks a high kick and eats a jab, and he charges with a small barrage that bounce off the guard. Johns glances a right hand over the top, and he finds himself eating a kick to the belly for his work. “Chapo” loads up on another right hand, following it with a high crotch single-leg but not succeeding with it. Morales defends with elbows to the side of the head, and this distracts him enough for Johns to elevate him and slam him down one second before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
Jabs are exchanged to start off the final round of what has been a tepid and tentative affair. The striking accuracy totals of both bantamweights are likely extremely low, especially in the significant strike category. Johns ducks in for a single without setting it up, and he lifts Morales’ left leg up in the air and chases him from one side of the cage to the other. Morales trips to the floor, and he bounces right back up without a care in the world. On the reset, Morales picks and pokes with a jab, and Johns sits down with a calf kick that lands with an audible thud. Morales replies with a slapping body kick, but the bantamweights are largely targeting one another with single strikes. Johns misses with a right hand, Morales is similarly inaccurate, and they return to their jab-centric approach. Morales chains a jab into a right hand, and Johns gives chase and swarms him with winging but missing punches. “Chapo” attempts another single, and this is nowhere near secure as Morales springs away. Morales makes him pay for this attempt with another body kick, and Johns blitzes him with a single-leg takedown effort. “Vandetta” keeps himself from hitting the mat once more, and he plants a front kick on the torso while Johns swings at air. They alternate with jabs, and the follow-up strikes from both fighters miss the mark again and again. Johns fires off huge overhand rights, but the evasiveness of Morales keeps him safe from harm. Johns attacks with one final takedown, and he bullies Morales to the wall and holds him there until the fight comes to a merciful end. The judges will have their hands full evaluating this lackluster contest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Miles Johns def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 88 of 154 57% 88 of 154 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:41
Vince Morales 0 51 of 153 33% 62 of 164 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 36 of 56 64% 36 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 16 of 56 28% 16 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:41
Vince Morales 0 20 of 62 32% 31 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 88 of 154 57% 41 of 98 18 of 22 29 of 34 86 of 151 2 of 3 0 of 0
Vince Morales 51 of 153 33% 33 of 127 15 of 23 3 of 3 48 of 149 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 24 of 40 60% 6 of 17 4 of 5 14 of 18 24 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 36 of 56 64% 18 of 37 5 of 6 13 of 13 34 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
Vince Morales 16 of 56 28% 10 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 1 15 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 28 of 58 48% 17 of 44 9 of 11 2 of 3 28 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 20 of 62 32% 15 of 55 5 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 60 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Martinez vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-150), Medic (+130)

Round 1
The third man inside the cage for this bantamweight contest is Herb Dean. Both men take their time feeling out the other with each fighter looking to find their distance with leg kicks and jabs over the opening minute. Martinez snaps a body kick that lands and Martinez lands a solid counter punch a few moments later. Martinez throws two other kicks that connect and begins walking down Morales. Martinez continues to land damaging leg kicks as Morales is unable to counter. Another leg kick slows down Morales as Martinez remains the aggressor, who is just one step ahead on the feet but not getting his opponent in any real danger. The round ends with Martinez throwing a jumping knee.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 2
Morales throws a leg kick and a right ot the body, but Martinez answers with a leg kick that lands much harder. Martinez lands a couple more whipping leg kicks as he controls the center of the cage. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. They clinch briefly and separate. Morales is struggling to find the range on his attacks. Martinez with another inside low kick. He’s varying his kicks to the legs well, going to both legs and working the inside and outside. Martinez with a kick to the body followed by a front kick down the middle. Morales pressures and eats a knee down the middle from Martinez for his efforts. Martinez with another outside low kick and he avoids the counter from Morales. Morales wings punches moving forward but can’t connect. Martinez whips another outside leg kick, then he follows a knee with a left hand. Martinez shoves his foe away before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 3
Martinez lands a push kick and then connects to Morales’ lead leg with an inside low kick. Morales closes the distance but he gets hit with punches. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. Martinez flicks out a jab and then connects with a left hook to the chin of his opponent. Martinez continues to dictate the range and the tempo of the exchanges. A knee and a left hand from Martinez land flush. Morales is trying to press the action, but Martinez is countering well. A right hand finds the mark for Morales. Martinez sticks a counter left and then throws a high kick that his foe blocks with his forearm. With about a minute remaining, Martinez executes a nicely timed level change for a double-leg takedown. Morales posts and stands against the fence, but Martinez is driving for another takedown, and he dumps Morales on the canvas. Morales reverses into top position but can’t make anything happen before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)

The Official Result
Jonathan Martinez def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Jonathan Martinez but is hesitant because he thinks Vince Morales's pressure style could cause problems. He notes that Martinez looked terrible in his last fight against Alejandro Perez, only kicking and crumbling under pressure. However, he believes Martinez is the better overall fighter and will squeak out a win. He also mentions a prop bet on Vince Morales winning a round via a plus 3.5 round bet.

Vince Morales plus 3.5 round bet (buy a round on judge's scorecard) - available at BetOnline
"i really want to pick vince morales as an underdog here i think this fight's going to look exactly like jonathan martinez's last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision, favoring his diverse striking (leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks) over Vince Morales. He notes Morales has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and the fight should stay standing. He questions Martinez's chin but believes his volume and kicks will be too much. He does not like the -220 price but picks Martinez to win.

"i think martinez does win a decision but um i'll be honest i don't really like the price tag of minus 220 but i'll pick on the win and i'll pick him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez but is wary of his tendency to get caught in fights. He notes Martinez's leg kick game should be effective against Morales, who is susceptible to low kicks. However, he acknowledges Morales' durability and underdog success, making this a tough call.

"part part of me thinks that jay martin stays the outside chips away and i think that's what everybody's believing like most people are on the same page but uh when i try to think of who who's that guy …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
Jonathan Martinez

The host picks Jonathan Martinez to win. He believes Martinez's kicking game, including leg kicks, body kicks, and head kicks, will be the difference. He thinks Morales has a puncher's chance but will get stuck on the end of Martinez's strikes and be outworked. He does not expect the fight to be as close as some people think.

over 2.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"i don't think martinez is going to be as close as people are making it out to be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not give a clear pick. He discusses both sides, noting Martinez's leg kicks and Morales' durability and underdog value. He says he is struggling to pull the trigger on either side.

"i'm struggling to pull the trigger myself of course underdogs are gonna come through lately i've been picking underdogs it's just the ones i picked and don't come through and the ones i fade do"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru sides with Jonathan Martinez, citing his technical striking on the outside and experience. He acknowledges Vince Morales has power but notes Morales hasn't lived up to his KO reputation in the UFC. He trusts Martinez not to make a mistake and get KO'd, predicting a unanimous decision with some hairy moments.

"i'm gonna side with jonathan martinez here"
WIN vs Louis Smolka
KO (punches) R1 2:02 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vince Morales 0 23 of 32 71% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Louis Smolka 1 27 of 49 55% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vince Morales 0 23 of 32 71% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Louis Smolka 1 27 of 49 55% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vince Morales 23 of 32 71% 5 of 14 10 of 10 8 of 8 19 of 28 4 of 4 0 of 0
Louis Smolka 27 of 49 55% 16 of 34 8 of 12 3 of 3 18 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vince Morales 23 of 32 71% 5 of 14 10 of 10 8 of 8 19 of 28 4 of 4 0 of 0
Louis Smolka 27 of 49 55% 16 of 34 8 of 12 3 of 3 18 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Vince Morales vs. Louis Smolka

Round 1
The UFC is back for three more weeks to end the year, and the first of three comes on the main ESPN network. UFC on ESPN 31, which now has 13 fights after losing a pair of matches in the last 24 hours, will commence in the bantamweight division. Flyweight-turned-135er Smolka (17-7, 8-6 UFC) will try to win his second in a row at the expense of Morales (10-5, 2-3 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni draws the first charge of the night, and with a touch of gloves, we are underway! Smolka leads the dance with two jabs and a right hand, and follows it with a low calf kick to frustrate Morales right out of the gate. Smolka walks his foe down, reaching out with push kicks and avoiding a swiping left hand coming his way. Morales settles down and snaps out a few jabs to find his range, and the punches have already marked Smolka up. “Vandetta” chains together a lengthy combination ending with several body shots, doing some decent work and making Smolka shell up. Morales backs off so he can flick out his jab a few times. Smolka continues to march forward but walks straight into jabs, and he is still able to push a kick out. Morales paws out a left hook a few times to solid effect, and Smolka comes right back at him but is not landing nearly as flush. Smolka rips a left hand to the body, and he latches on to a Thai clinch to blast Morales in the body with knees.
Not remotely concerned by the strikes, Morales gathers himself, lands to the body and wings a huge right hand over the top that sends Smolka crashing face-first on the canvas.
Morales surprised himself with the strike, as he takes a second before pouncing to deliver some ground-and-pound. The blows are merely academic, as Tognoni rushes in to pull him off and stop the fight. What a way to start the night, as Morales becomes the first fighter to ever knock out the durable Smolka!

The Official Result
Vince Morales def. Louis Smolka R1 2:02 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Louis Smolka

Angelo picks Louis Smolka, citing his volume, wrestling, and chin. He notes Smolka averages two takedowns per fight and works in grappling well, while Morales relies on power but may be a step behind. Angelo is confident Smolka's chin holds up and he outpaces Morales to a win.

1 unit moneyline at -150
"i'm gonna go with luis smoka here i see him avoiding the big shots working in wrestling outpacing to a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Louis Smolka

Big Brady picks Louis Smolka to win inside the distance, specifically by submission. He notes Smolka's 89% finish rate and 42% submission rate, and highlights Vince Morales' poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He references Morales' fight against Domingo Pilarte where he was easily submitted after being taken down. Brady believes Smolka's grappling advantage will be decisive.

by submission
"give me luis smolka inside the distance... vince morales by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Louis Smolka

Cody picks Smolka, noting his grappling advantage and that Morales is a warm body. He thinks Smolka's striking is even with Morales and that his ground game will be the difference. Cody believes Smolka is the rightful favorite.

"i do think that louis smolka is the rightful favorite and i do think this is a spot where the favor does win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Louis Smolka

Daniel Levi picks Louis Smolka to win, citing his scrambling ability, durability, and experience. He notes that Smolka has an insane chin and can take shots, and that he has a little sneaky power. He thinks Smolka can get on top of Morales and either ground-and-pound or submit him. He acknowledges that backing Smolka as a favorite can be sketchy but notes his decent history as a slight favorite.

"I'm gonna go with louis smoker to get it done"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Louis Smolka

Jacob agrees with Smolka, emphasizing he must end up on top in grappling exchanges. He notes Smolka's wrestling and jiu-jitsu from top position are key, and that Morales is a wrestler but only a blue belt. Jacob is not overly confident but leans Smolka.

"i agree i think i like smoking in this matchup i think the big... the most important thing for him in this fight is in the grappling exchanges in the wrestling he has to end up on top"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Louis Smolka

I like Smolka here. He is much more physical, hits harder, and throws more volume than Morales. Morales is a good technical boxer but lacks power and athleticism; he tends to collapse when backed up and is poor on bottom. Smolka will pressure non-stop and eventually break him, likely finishing via submission or TKO. I also like the inside the distance prop at plus 200.

Smolka by submission +365, Smolka inside the distance +200
"I like smoker here smoke inside the distance please let me know what you feel about this matchup brother"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Louis Smolka

Paul picks Smolka, citing his grappling and recent win over Quinones. He thinks Smolka's ground game is slick and that he can capitalize on scrambles. Paul notes that Smolka's losses are to elite competition and that he seems to have turned his life around.

"i'm gonna go smoke it here um uh hopefully you can get the fight to the mat and and style from top"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Louis Smolka

The MMA Guru picks Louis Smolka to win by submission in the second round. He expects a competitive stand-up fight early, with both landing shots, but Smolka's superior grappling will be the difference. He predicts Smolka will secure a takedown at the end of the first round, building confidence, then finish with a rear-naked choke midway through the second.

second round rear naked choke
"i'm gonna go the lewis smoker second round rear naked choke against vince morales"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vince Morales 0 76 of 196 38% 84 of 204 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:40
Drako Rodriguez 0 55 of 151 36% 60 of 156 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vince Morales 0 27 of 54 50% 30 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Drako Rodriguez 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vince Morales 0 18 of 48 37% 22 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Drako Rodriguez 0 17 of 40 42% 19 of 42 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:13
3 Vince Morales 0 31 of 94 32% 32 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Drako Rodriguez 0 24 of 62 38% 27 of 65 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vince Morales 76 of 196 38% 46 of 150 26 of 40 4 of 6 69 of 183 7 of 12 0 of 1
Drako Rodriguez 55 of 151 36% 45 of 138 2 of 3 8 of 10 49 of 143 5 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vince Morales 27 of 54 50% 14 of 37 11 of 14 2 of 3 24 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
Drako Rodriguez 14 of 49 28% 12 of 45 0 of 0 2 of 4 13 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Vince Morales 18 of 48 37% 10 of 36 7 of 10 1 of 2 17 of 43 1 of 4 0 of 1
Drako Rodriguez 17 of 40 42% 12 of 34 0 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 36 1 of 3 1 of 1
3 Vince Morales 31 of 94 32% 22 of 77 8 of 16 1 of 1 28 of 89 3 of 5 0 of 0
Drako Rodriguez 24 of 62 38% 21 of 59 2 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Vince Morales vs. Drako Rodriguez

Round 1
Up next at bantamweight, it’s a battle between the unusually nicknamed when “Vandetta” Morales (9-5, 1-3 UFC) tries to run over 1930s vaudevillian “The Great Drakolini” Rodriguez (7-2, 0-1 UFC). With both coming off losses, they have something to prove and look to make a big splash in front of this raucous crowd. They do not touch gloves, and referee Jeff Rexroad looks on in what could be a fun one. Morales looks for right hands and leg kicks, and Rodriguez is content to just watch Morales throw at him. Morales scores a left hand, and Rodriguez paws back at him while standing there. Rodriguez catches Morales coming in at him with a straight left hand, shaking Morales up and forcing him reset. Morales charges and whiffs, but Rodriguez is not as inaccurate as he clips Morales with a short right hand and a leg kick to follow. A few jabs from Rodriguez have marked Morales up early, and Morales tries to swing a body kick but Rodriguez closes the distance on him to break it up. Both men trade leg kicks, and Morales ducks down but ends up headbutting Rodriguez in the chest. Morales swings and misses with punches while Rodriguez is light on his feet flicking his jab out there to dramatic effect. The jab from Rodriguez and the leg kicks have reddened Morales considerably, and he celebrates his work after scoring a left hand. Morales comes back at him over the top with a looping right hand, and it collides with the temple as Rodriguez rolls with it. The one-and-done striking exchanges are not exciting the Houston crowd, which starts to rain boos down as they pick and poke at one another. Morales crashes forward to duck a blow and aims for a takedown, and even though he does not land it, he presses Rodriguez into the fencing. “The Great Drakolini” escapes with relative ease and breaks free, before landing a solid body kick as the two get back after it. Both men land big punches, and Morales scores the better one as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
The bantamweights come out to the center of the cage, and Morales looks to set up a left hand but cannot quote score it. As Rodriguez throws a naked low kick, Morales connects with a picture-perfect right hand that sends Rodriguez flying to the ground. Although Morales considers diving after him and doing some damage, he elects to instead let Rodriguez up so they can keep striking. Both men start up with wide exchanges, and they trade big single blows and both nearly fall over. Rodriguez changes levels and looks to take his foe down, but “Vandetta” stuffs the double. Rodriguez chains the attempt into a single, and he puts Morales on his back for a moment. Morales springs back up, and Rodriguez is there to hit a quick mat return. Once more, Morales stands up, and he absorbs a sharp strike to the body. Rodriguez lifts Morales up and slams him down, and this time Morales needs to get to his knees a little slower before exploding back to his feet. He does this, and the two separate. Morales stings Rodriguez with a one-two, even walking through a counterpunch to get there. Morales targets the body and the head, and he walks Rodriguez down right into a right hand that splits his guard. A short but ferocious brawl ensues, with each fighter landing flush and giving it right back, before Rodriguez backs off to score a leg kick. Rodriguez gets his jab going again, and Morales finds a right hand that clatters off the side of Rodriguez’ head. Rodriguez sits down on a two-punch combination, and Morales pays him back with a heavier right hand. They come together in the pocket and trade, with Rodriguez clipping his foe with a solid left hand. The round ends as they both swing wildly.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
The close fight enters its third round, and Morales leads the dance as he follows Rodriguez around the cage. Morales partially connects with a left hand, and the right that comes after gets blocked. Rodriguez tries to keep his advancing foe at bay with a few jabs, and they land blows at the same moment. Both men dodge and weave as they throw heavily at the other, with counters missing as they try to trade. Rodriguez stretches out with a left hand, and Morales swarms him with a short salvo of punches that largely do not get in. Rodriguez parries a few shots to land a solid right hand, and Morales is right in front of him ready to string a few more punches together. “The Great Drakolini” lands a few punches as they clinch up, and right at the break, he clips Morales with a stern right hand. Morales wheels out of the way and puts on the gas, landing a solid right hand that surprises Rodriguez momentarily. Rodriguez looks to land a takedown, and Morales hops out of the way and stops the advancing effort. The bantamweights go punch-for-punch, with one landing and the other responding nearly in sequential order. Morales tries to break up this rhythm with a few punches and a takedown attempt, and when he does not get, he rips the body with a left hand and brings a right over the top. Rodriguez chains a one-two that misses the mark, and Morales stings him back with a right hand. Morales keeps after his retreating foe, scoring a few left hands while Rodriguez is slowly and throwing less. Both men start throwing heavy leather, and Morales slaps away the oncoming fire so he can pin his right hand on Rodriguez’ chin. They both flurry briefly, and Morales gets the better of the exchange as Rodriguez is forced to back off and throw a body kick. Morales gives him chase and lands to the head and body, with Rodriguez bouncing off the cage wall. Morales rips the body, and Rodriguez counters him with a sharp right hand that makes Morales wave him on. With seconds to spare, both men throw caution to the wind and swing wildly, connecting practically at will and not budging until the final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Vince Morales def. Drako Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Vince Morales

Angelo leans Morales, noting that Rodriguez has a weak chin and Morales comes forward aggressively. He thinks Morales can touch that chin and get a finish. He calls it a 50/50 fight but likes Morales as an underdog pick.

"I think Morales could finish Rodriguez... we've seen Rodriguez have that soft chin syndrome."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Big Brady likes Morales returning to his natural bantamweight after a loss at featherweight. He thinks Morales has power and will have a striking advantage against Rodriguez, who has poor striking defense and a questionable chin. He notes Rodriguez will try to grapple but Morales has a good get-up game. He predicts a third-round knockout as Rodriguez slows down.

third round knockout
"I'll say third round knockout for Vince Morales."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Drako Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, citing his sharper technical boxing and speed. He notes that Morales has poor ring IQ and doesn't use his wrestling, while Rodriguez has better output. Cody expects a decision win for Rodriguez.

Rodriguez by decision
"i think draco rodriguez is going to get the job done and again i think this one goes 15 minutes and it'll be rodriguez by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Drako Rodriguez

Daniel Levi picks Drako Rodriguez, though not confidently. He criticizes Vince Morales as 'harmless' at the UFC level, lacking power and takedown options. He notes that Rodriguez has submission threats off his back and decent hands, but acknowledges that Rodriguez has been stopped in his two fights against UFC-caliber opponents. He believes Rodriguez will come with urgency after a surprising loss and that Morales is a favorable matchup for him.

"I'ma come in on the other side I mean it's not a confident pick here on Drako Rodriguez"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Morales has better footwork, hand speed, and boxing. Rodriguez's best chance is to get the fight to the ground and use his jiu-jitsu, but he may struggle to take Morales down and hold him there. Morales should stuff takedowns and outwork Rodriguez on the feet, likely winning a decision. No big money on this fight.

"I like morales morales by decision again no real big read in the spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges the close nature and does not add his own analysis.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Vince Morales

The MMA Guru picks Vince Morales over Drako Rodriguez. He acknowledges it's a tough pick but favors Morales' scrappiness, toughness, and better chin. He criticizes Rodriguez's poor striking defense and notes Morales has better cardio and output. He predicts Morales will out-hustle Rodriguez to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm gonna go vince morales being a little bit better overall as a fighter"