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Age 34
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78"
Weight 260 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Waldo Cortes Acosta
5.54 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.38 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.44 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Chase Sherman
6.04 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
6.65 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.09 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
74.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Moneyline
DraftKings -225
KO/TKO
BetWay +110
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +510
Chase Sherman
Moneyline
FanDuel +210
KO/TKO
BetRivers +480
Submission
FanDuel +3100
Decision
DraftKings +475
Waldo Cortes Acosta - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 88 of 143 61% 88 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 54 of 130 41% 54 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 33 of 44 75% 33 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 17 of 50 34% 17 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 88 of 143 61% 22 of 70 23 of 29 43 of 44 88 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 54 of 130 41% 30 of 91 6 of 13 18 of 26 53 of 129 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 33 of 44 75% 4 of 14 8 of 8 21 of 22 33 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 33 45% 7 of 21 2 of 4 6 of 8 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 34 of 56 60% 13 of 31 7 of 11 14 of 14 34 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 22 of 47 46% 8 of 29 3 of 6 11 of 12 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkov 21 of 43 48% 5 of 25 8 of 10 8 of 8 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 17 of 50 34% 15 of 41 1 of 3 1 of 6 16 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+150)

Round 1
Although the UFC’s heavyweight title picture is in flux with Tom Aspinall still recovering, Jon Jones suggesting that Elvis has left the building and Ciryl Gane battling Alex Pereira for the interim strap, this next one might end up serving as a de facto eliminator match. Volkov (39-11, 13-5 UFC) may have questionably come up on the wrong end of the scorecards in his rematch with Gane, and a win could propel him back to gold. Standing in his way will be surging former pitcher Cortes-Acosta (17-2, 10-2 UFC), who has won three straight. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the big men, standing back as they lumber towards one another without a glove touch in sight.
Volkov starts off with kicks to the lead leg and body. He alternates them while Cortes-Acosta tries to get a read on his way in. Volkov keeps pecking away with these distance-keeping kicks, and he takes a flush jab on the nose. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a right hand follow-up, but his low kick scores with an audible thud. Cortes-Acosta chases after the Russian, coiling back his right hand to attack. Volkov keeps to his preferred range, bringing up a foot just short of the face and going right back to the front leg. Volkov lands a low kick, and Cortes-Acosta charges him behind four punches that largely careen off the raised guard. Cortes-Acosta again tries to swarm, but Volkov slips and clips him with a left hook while escaping.
Volkov peppers the midsection with his foot as fans chant his name, and he is in range for just one punch before strafing to the side. Volkov beats on the lead leg a few more times, doing so until Cortes-Acosta leans down to try to catch it. Cortes-Acosta does not get the leg, so he wings power punches that miss the mark. Volkov slams his shin in the body, and he is met with a jab and sees the overhand coming at him. Volkov pushes off the belly and spins away before absorbing anything of merit. Cortes-Acosta blitzes him and lands a left hand flush, and Volkov splits off and continues his decimation of the front leg. Volkov’s one-two misses, and Cortes-Acosta rallies with his own jab. Cortes-Acosta digs a left hand to the side, and his overhand right misses while Volkov is resetting. Volkov lands a few more kicks as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The heavyweights do not break their gaze when leaving their corners, and Volkov picks up where he left off with a slapping body kick. Cortes-Acosta smacks his side to draw more on, and he wings a right hand that buzzes the tower. Volkov ducks a monster punch to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta lashes out with an elbow that is an inch away from doing damage. Volkov works the inside of the front leg, and he stays planted too long and is clubbed with a right hand. Volkov circles off and plants a front kick on the stomach and another to the front leg. Volkov offers a high kick up and dances away from the counters he knows are coming, and he does not slow on working the front leg with his kicks. Cortes-Acosta kicks him back a few times, but the impact of the swings differs significantly. Volkov lances Cortes-Acosta with a one-two, moving to the side as he is more intent on breaking his foe down than outright knocking him flat.
The low kicks are starting to have an impact, with Cortes-Acosta tripping up on his way in. Cortes-Acosta lobs a bomb of a right hand, and Volkov shifts to the side. Cortes-Acosta points to the ground to try to initiate a brawl, angrily shouting at his opponent. Volkov welcomes this by blasting Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand that staggers him. Cortes-Acosta backs off and tries to lure his foe in, but Volkov is smart and just tags him on the outside. Volkov’s body kick gets through, and he leans away as Cortes-Acosta telegraphs his swings. He scores a low kick, and a frustrated Cortes-Acosta turns his hips into one coming back at him. Volkov flicks out a body kick and brushes Cortes-Acosta’s hair with his shin, catching a leaning Cortes-Acosta with a long right hand. A think trickle of blood leaks from the top of Volkov’s cheek, and he does not change his game plan one iota as he rips the body. Cortes-Acosta crashes at him with heavy punches, only to be jabbed back by the Russian. Volkov’s final inside low kick of the round draws a noteworthy reaction out of his opponent, with Cortes-Acosta limping back to lean on his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta is the aggressor to start the final frame, whether he is tied on the scorecards or down on them, it does not matter. He flicks a low kick at the Russian, slowly working his way to crowd forward. Volkov chambers and looses a kick to the ribs, and he goes upstairs and then to the sternum in rapid succession. Cortes-Acosta’s own counter kick does not land, and he gets his leg kicked out from beneath him when rushing forward. Cortes-Acosta lunges with his fingers outstretched and jams one in Volkov’s eye, and Beltran is about to have them play through it but calls time instead to let Volkov recover. When they resume, Cortes-Acosta is angry. The Dominican starts hurling bombs, and Volkov suddenly freezes him with a jab directly into the eye socket. Volkov’s nose is pouring blood out after absorbing a bomb or two, but Cortes-Acosta is the one who appears to be struggling more as Volkov pecks away at him. Volkov digs a kick to the body and leans as a right hand upstairs brushes past his hair. Cortes-Acosta loads up on big firepower, further bloodying up the Russian’s nose as he headhunts. Volkov stands in the pocket too long to absorb a flush uppercut, but his position allows him to jab out with a front kick that sucks some of the air out of Cortes-Acosta’s lungs.
Cortes-Acosta rushes forward for a takedown, and Volkov stonewalls him and shoves him to the fence. Cortes-Acosta breaks off with a knee to the body. Volkov backs off, breathing hard as he struggles to get any air through his bloodied nostrils, and he offers up a body kick. Volkov hammers the front leg with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta has his right hand coiled and ready to launch. Cortes-Acosta uses power jabs, targeting the beacon that is Volkov’s red and shiny nose. Volkov jabs him back, and he dodges a missile of a right hand by a whisker. Volkov pins a one-two on the nose and lands two low kicks, the second of which staggering Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta still goes out swinging furiously, and he tries to get one last brawl with seconds left. Volkov gets on his bike after jabbing and chopping at the front leg, and he stays out of range as time runs out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, betting on him at +160. He cites Waldo's athleticism, youth, and power, and notes that Volkov doesn't hit very hard. He thinks Waldo's footwork and takedown threat will be key, and that Volkov's only path is to wrestle, which Waldo can defend.

bet on Waldo at plus 160
"I'm picking Waldo here. I even bet on Waldo at plus 160."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes Volkov has no takedown defense and Waldo can close distance without fear of Volkov's power. He mentions Waldo's win over Derrick Lewis and his ability to out-strike and out-grapple. He is concerned about Volkov's offensive wrestling but still picks Waldo. He likes the dog odds.

Angelo mentions Waldo is a dog and he likes a good amount of dogs on this card.
"I'm still picking him. He's a dog. I'm going to run with that. I think the athleticism is really going to be the difference here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady leans Alexander Volkov, noting his better volume and tools on the feet. He questions Waldo's performances in decisions and thinks Volkov's chin is solid. Brady expects Volkov to win by decision, as Waldo is tough and can eat shots, but Volkov should outpoint him.

"I'm leaning Volkov here. I'm going to take Volkov to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, citing his speed, boxing, and youth advantage over the older Volkov. He notes Volkov's inconsistency and questionable durability, and believes Acosta can win on the feet. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money value.

"I only got a handful of underdogs that I'm going to back on this card. And sadly, Waldo is one of them."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Volkov's improved confidence and mean streak in his third act, and notes Acosta's lack of adjustments. Connor believes Volkov's jab and reach will be too much, and Acosta has no way out when stuck in a bad style matchup.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Connor says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel picks Acosta despite acknowledging Volkov's veteran skills and potential for a clinic. He notes Acosta's athleticism, confidence, and recent wins, and admits he has been wrong about Acosta before. Daniel feels he must pick Acosta now, even though he fears Volkov will win as a result.

"I just feel bad that I've counted this guy out so many times. He keeps proving me wrong. I feel like I got to pick him here. And now obviously Volkov's going to win as a result, but I'm gonna …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host does not bet this fight. He sees it as competitive on the feet, with Volkov having a grappling edge if he chooses to use it. He notes both have bad takedown defense and ground games, but Volkov's top game is heavy. He passes because if it stays standing, it's razor close, and if Volkov grapples, he could dominate. He also mentions the over/under but does not bet.

No bet. Mentions over 1.5 rounds at 3.50 as tempting but passes.
"I'm not going to touch this one from a betting point of view because I think if it does stay standing... this one will be razor close."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Lean picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Alexander Volkov

Predicted method: Decision. Volkov's significant height and reach advantage (6'7", 80" reach) allows him to control distance with his jab and long strikes against the shorter Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta has power (recent KOs over Derrick Lewis and Shamil Gaziev) but tends to be hittable (3.38 SApM) and may struggle against Volkov's technical striking. Volkov's takedown defense (68%) is adequate, and he has shown improved grappling. However, Cortes Acosta's momentum and KO power make this a dangerous fight. Volkov should win by decision if he keeps it standing.

Volkov by decision +155
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jacob picks Volkov, noting that Volkov rarely loses striking matches and is excellent at keeping range. He thinks the fight will look like the Pavlovich fight where Waldo backs up and can't land enough. He believes the odds should be closer to 50/50 and that Volkov is the better striker.

"Volkov, I don't know if you heard me when he walked away, but he really lose striking matches. So, I got to go Volkov."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James leans towards Alexander Volkov because he believes Volkov's kickboxing and experience will outpoint Cortes-Acosta over three rounds. He notes that Cortes-Acosta has struggled in longer kickboxing fights against Sergey Spivac and Sergey Pavlovich, and that Volkov is a true kickboxer. He also mentions Cortes-Acosta's recent hamstring injury as a concern. He predicts Volkov by decision.

"I lean to the Alexander Volkov side in this fight. ... I got Vulov winning via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The host picks Volkov but is hesitant due to Cortes Acosta's speed advantage. He believes Volkov has advantages in striking, grappling, and experience, and should outwork Cortes Acosta. He expects a decision win, but notes the speed difference gives him pause. He may wait for a better line.

"I'll go Volkov and Volkov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov, citing his size, reach, and wrestling ability. He thinks Volkov can take Acosta down and control him, as Acosta has not faced elite wrestlers. Paul also mentions a small bet on Volkov by submission at plus 2000, noting Volkov's submission skills.

Volkov by submission (plus 2000)
"I still like Volkov here. There's been some money coming in on Waldo. I understand Waldo's pretty fast on the feet."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his underrated resume and recent performances. He notes Volkov's wins over Pavlovich and close fight with Gane. He believes Volkov's low kicks, clinch work, and body attacks will be key against Cortes Acosta, who he sees as a 'blob'. He predicts Volkov will pick him apart, possibly with a body kick KO.

"I am going to go with Alexander Vulov, but I love this matchup."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Zane picks Volkov, citing his resurgence and stylistic advantage. He notes Volkov's jab and reach will trouble Acosta, who is an artless slugger with few ideas. Zane points out that Acosta has no wrestling threat, which is Volkov's historical weakness. He expects Volkov to control the fight with his jab and counters, though it's heavyweight so anything can happen.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Zane says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
KO R2 3:14 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 44 of 62 70% 46 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Derrick Lewis 0 8 of 43 18% 8 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 12 of 16 75% 14 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Derrick Lewis 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 32 of 46 69% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Derrick Lewis 0 4 of 21 19% 4 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 44 of 62 70% 35 of 53 5 of 5 4 of 4 27 of 45 1 of 1 16 of 16
Derrick Lewis 8 of 43 18% 6 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 1 8 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 12 of 16 75% 7 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Derrick Lewis 4 of 22 18% 3 of 17 1 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 32 of 46 69% 28 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 16 of 30 1 of 1 15 of 15
Derrick Lewis 4 of 21 19% 3 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-355), Lewis (+280)

Round 1
Faces are about to get punched by fists the size of lunchboxes. Heavyweights ready and willing to inflict some serious damage will trade bungalows, and only one man expects to be standing when it is all said and done. Cortes-Acosta (16-2, 9-2 UFC) has momentum behind him as well as a six-year age advantage, but he has to throw down with Lewis (29-12, 1 NC; 20-10 UFC). Whether Lewis will suffer another defeat against a tough talent or spring yet another brutal upset knockout, we will know in the next 15 minutes or fewer. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of the mighty swings about to come. There is no plan for a glove touch.
Lewis says hello with a jumping front kick, and Cortes-Acosta easily swats it out of the air. Lewis then kicks low, and the Dominican ignores it and slowly walks down his opponent before kicking him back. Cortes-Acosta jabs with the ball of his foot to the stomach, and he aims a jab to the same spot before leaning back to dodge a left hook. Lewis pitches a jumping head kick that bangs into the guard, and Cortes-Acosta looks surprised that the relative elder statesman and 264-pounder can get his leg up there repeatedly. Cortes-Acosta does not stick his face in the hornet’s nest, instead peeking out behind his jab occasionally. The lack of activity has made fans immediately restless, so Lewis calms them briefly with a failed head kick while touching Cortes-Acosta at the end of a reaching right hand.
There is a lull in the action as no one wants to commit, with Lewis always threatening that he is going to unleash something but pulling back more often than not. When Lewis does lunge forward, Cortes-Acosta bats him back with a counter as he stays in his preferred range chopping away at the front wheel. Cortes-Acosta fires off a one-two that grazes the side of the dome, and Lewis’ counter goes wide. Lewis lets rip a body kick, and Cortes-Acosta catches it and hangs onto it until Lewis flops to his back. Cortes-Acosta lords over him kicking the legs, and he hangs onto an ankle to punch the body a few times. Herzog tells him to choose whether he wants to let Lewis up, and he does. Lewis gingerly gets back to his feet, and walks right into a jab. Lewis lets fly a kick, and Cortes-Acosta slips when dodging it to bounce off the cage. Lewis lashes out with looping punches, and the younger man dodges and weaves away from every one. Cortes-Acosta’s jab ends the tepid round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The heavyweights pick up where they left off, with Cortes-Acosta probing with jabs while Lewis tries high-amplitude, generally inaccurate offense. Lewis scores a body kick in the midst of a surge, but Cortes-Acosta is no worse for wear and keeps the jab right in Lewis’ face. Lewis walks face-first into a clean right hand that surprises him, and he lumbers forward to grab hold of his foe who is out of the way. Cortes-Acosta lets him bounce off the fencing so he can keep pecking at him, and he jams the front leg with a kick. Lewis wades forward with his hands down, taking the jab on the forehead so he can close in. He lobs a big left and a bigger right, but Cortes-Acosta is already two steps ahead of him. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with his jab, and he follows one with a right hand down the pipe. “Salsa Boy” keeps probing with his flustering jab, disrupting what Lewis has to offer before it gets thrown.
Cortes-Acosta walks Lewis down fearlessly, and he rolls with a looping left hook and puts his hand in the air to signal that he dodged it. Cortes-Acosta jabs the head and body, and he leans back to take the sting out of a Lewis overhand right.
When absorbing a jab, Lewis slips and feebly falls to his back. The frustrated Lewis turns to his knees under fire, seemingly out of the fight. Lewis turtles up as the Dominican pelts him with right hands, and Herzog urges Lewis to fight on but Lewis will not.
Punches continue to mount until Herzog waves the fight off, and the building does not respond positively to the stoppage or the victor.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Derrick Lewis R2 3:14 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism, speed, and technical striking. He acknowledges Derrick Lewis's knockout power but believes Waldo's chin and volume will carry him. He notes Waldo was rocked in his last fight but trusts his durability. He says the odds are probably accurate but warns it's a Derrick Lewis fight where anything can happen.

"Waldo's going to be the pick. He's going to have to be careful here. And I'm medium level confidence. ... minus 330. Honestly, probably accurate, but it's a Derrick Lewis fight and anything could happen."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady highlights Waldo's durability, noting he ate bombs from Pavlovich and smiled. He thinks Lewis is knockout-or-bust and Waldo is a much better minute-winner. He expects Waldo to cruise to a decision win, as Lewis likely can't knock him out.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"I think Waldo is extremely durable. I think between the two, Waldo's a million times more durable than Lewis."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant due to the price tag. He notes Waldo's jab and footwork could give Lewis problems, but worries about Waldo's tendency to be hesitant against power punchers. Cody sees Waldo winning more often than not but prefers not to lay the heavy price.

"I kind of went the other way. But uh you know how we make picks on every single fight, but the bottom line is some of those you can pass on."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Connor picks Derrick Lewis, relying on his proven ability to change a fight with one punch or a wild technique (e.g., flying knee). He argues that Waldo Cortes Acosta is not a consistent fighter and can be drawn into brawls, as seen against Ryan Spann. Connor also notes that Lewis has a history of winning fights he's losing (e.g., Volkov, Hunt) and that his dynamism is a constant threat. However, he admits Lewis's calm has eroded in recent years.

Waldo opened at -205, now -330; Lewis opened at +175, now +270. Connor says the odds are a little wide given Lewis's danger.
"I gotta have the heavyweight dynamic finisher."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel Vreeland picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant. He notes that he has been wrong about Cortes-Acosta before, picking against him in his last two fights. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and get-up game, but believes Cortes-Acosta has momentum and is coming into his own. Vreeland warns that Lewis is always dangerous and that this is a tough fight to call.

"I'm going to go Waldo Cortez Aosta. He's got the momentum on his side. Seems like he's coming into his own."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

James picks Cortes-Acosta via decision, citing his superior boxing and durability. He notes Lewis is on a downtrend, often quitting when tired, and that Cortes-Acosta is smart enough to avoid Lewis's power bursts. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I'm pretty [ __ ] confident on Waldo Cortez A Costa here. I think he's the better striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host expects Cortes Acosta to use his pesky jab and body work to slow down Derrick Lewis, eventually leading to a TKO finish. He notes Cortes Acosta's improved chin and durability, believing he can eat Lewis's best shots. However, he hesitates to play the -350 line, suggesting the method of victory might be a better bet. He predicts the fight won't go to the scorecards.

Cortes Acosta by TKO, fight doesn't go to decision
"I feel like he can eat the best shot from Derrick Lewis. Still come forward, still land his pesky jab, really just stay on uh Lewis and I think that eventually leads to a TKO finish for Waldo Cortez Acasta."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Paul picks Derrick Lewis by KO, viewing it as a system play. He acknowledges Waldo is more likely to win but believes Lewis's power is a game-changer. Paul notes Lewis's age and cardio issues but says power is the last to go, and he likes the plus money on Lewis by KO.

Derrick Lewis by KO
"Lewis by KO. I it's just it's just more of a system play at this point in his career. He's 41. Yes. He's you know I think he's given up certain skills and abilities, but he's got the one thing …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his talented hands and recent activity. He believes Derrick Lewis's one-dimensional striking will be countered, and that Lewis will quit after getting cracked. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first round TKO
"I think this is going to be a Waldo Cortez Aosta first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Zane leans toward Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his youth (34) and calm, consistent approach. He notes that Derrick Lewis has lost his composure in recent fights and tends to brawl recklessly, which plays into Waldo's patient counter-striking. However, Zane acknowledges that Lewis has dynamic fight-changing power and could land a lucky shot. He also mentions that Waldo is not a consistent finisher and could be outpointed if Lewis fights smart.

Waldo opened at -205, now -330; Lewis opened at +175, now +270. Zane says the odds are a little wide given Lewis's danger.
"I'm leaning towards Waldo here, but just because he's a young man and he's 34."
WIN vs Shamil Gaziev
KO R1 1:22 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 2 10 of 21 47% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Shamil Gaziev 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 2 10 of 21 47% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Shamil Gaziev 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 10 of 21 47% 8 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 0 of 1 1 of 2
Shamil Gaziev 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 10 of 21 47% 8 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 0 of 1 1 of 2
Shamil Gaziev 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Shamil Gaziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-160); Gaziev (+130)

Round 1
It’s time for the big boys again. Let us hope it is nothing like the travesty of the curtain jerker today, and that there is no eye poke silliness to speak of. Looking to become the heavyweight version of Donald Cerrone, Cortes-Acosta (15-2, 8-2 UFC) steps in on short notice to replace Serghei Spivac. In an amusing twist of fate, “Salsa Boy” previously replaced Gaziev (14-1, 3-1 UFC) against Spivac earlier this year. While Cortes-Acosta wants to fight six times this year—meaning, he wants to serve as a replacement fighter for one of the next two final UFC cards in 2026 providing he gets out of this unscathed—he will have to handle the Bahraini first. Referee Lukasz Bosacki has his hands full as these big lugs tipped the scales at a combined 527 pounds on Friday, but he takes a breath of relief as they touch gloves and do not appear to hold any ill will towards one another.
Gaziev fearlessly marches forward to start the fight, putting Cortes-Acosta’s back to the fence and aiming straight punches at him. Cortes-Acosta flicks a few jabs back at him, and Gaziev smiles at him and sways from most. Gaziev clubs Cortes-Acosta with a left hand, and Cortes-Acosta snaps into action and counters Gaziev with a balance-destroying right. Cortes-Acosta tries to pound out Gaziev when he hits the floor, but Gaziev stands and backs off, shaking off the cobwebs. Cortes-Acosta, smelling blood in the water, starts to set something up as he flashes jab after jab.
When the opening presents itself, he hurls a fastball of a right hand that crashes square into Gaziev’s temple. The Bahrain native collapses to his back and clutches his face, still with it but no longer defending himself. Cortes-Acosta drops to a knee to deliver one final hammerfist, but it glances off Bosacki’s protective arm as he has already stepped in to wave things off given Gaziev’s sign of physical surrender.
The fight over, Gaziev slowly rolls to his knees, and he is beside himself after getting smoked like that. That marks four wins in 2025 for Cortes-Acosta, who still wants one more—on December 13 at the year-end Fight Night—and dons his eye patch and bandana to represent his pirate self.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Shamil Gaziev R1 1:22 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev over Waldo Cortes Acosta, despite mocking Gaziev's appearance. He notes Gaziev is a much better striker with power and capable wrestling, while Acosta is a grappler who can be outworked and out-athleted. Gaziev should dominate on the feet and keep the fight standing, leading to a win.

"The pick is because he's the much better striker. I think he's a very capable wrestler and he can keep this fight standing."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Big Brady leans Shamil Gaziev by first-round knockout, despite acknowledging Spivak's inconsistency. He believes Gaziev's power and forward pressure will overwhelm Spivak, who has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He notes Spivak's path via grappling but can't count on him to execute.

first round KO
"Give me Gaziev to win this fight and I think it's by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Cody picks Shamil Gaziev but is not confident. He notes both fighters have awful cardio, but Gaziev has better wrestling and power. Cody believes Gaziev can knock out Spivac early, as Spivac gasses quickly and has poor takedown defense. He mentions the location in Qatar might favor Gaziev.

"I'm going to take Shil, maybe a Shil by TKO if you want to get degenerate with it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Connor picks Spivak (Waldo Cortes Acosta), predicting that Gaziev will gas after an early takedown attempt, allowing Spivak to take over with his clinch and jab. He notes Gaziev's poor defensive striking and tendency to fade, while Spivak manages fights well. Connor acknowledges Gaziev's speed and power could lead to an early KO.

Spivak by decision or late TKO; Gaziev could win early
"I'll take Spivak too. But he might also just crush, Ghaziv might also just crush him in the first round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Lucrative James picks Shamil Gaziev, citing his power striking and durability. He notes Sergey Spivac's questionable mentality and recent poor performances. He believes Gaziev's power will be too much and predicts a knockout win. He also mentions Spivac's camp change as a potential negative.

"I think Gazv is probably going to finish him to be honest, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev has knockout power and physicality. Spivac is on a losing streak and may struggle with Gaziev's strength. Gaziev should land a big shot and finish Spivac by the second round.

Gaziev by knockout in round 2
"Give me Gaz and Gaz by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Paul leans towards Gaziev, citing his wrestling and power. He notes that Spivac has poor cardio and has been finished when tired. Paul believes Gaziev can take Spivac down or knock him out early, but acknowledges it's a greasy fight.

"I'll side with Gazv but um don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing Gaziev's pressure and ability to barrage opponents. He notes Spivak's vulnerability when pressured. He expects a close decision, with Gaziev undeniable as the fight goes on.

Shamil Gaziev to fight for more than 1.5 total rounds (from earlier prizepicks segment)
"I'm going to go with Shamil Gaziev getting this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Spivak. He notes that Gaziev's cardio is a major issue and that Spivak's reach and jab will become factors as the fight progresses. Zane sees Spivak as a competent heavyweight who can survive early danger and take over late.

Spivak by decision; Gaziev likely to fade
"I'm going to pick him to survive and take over. But yeah, he just might not."
WIN vs Ante Delija
KO R1 3:59 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 12 of 17 70% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ante Delija 0 16 of 36 44% 18 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 12 of 17 70% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ante Delija 0 16 of 36 44% 18 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 12 of 17 70% 9 of 11 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 8 2 of 3 6 of 6
Ante Delija 16 of 36 44% 13 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 12 of 17 70% 9 of 11 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 8 2 of 3 6 of 6
Ante Delija 16 of 36 44% 13 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ante Delija
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-105); Delija (-115)

Round 1
Heavyweights will test the structural integrity of this smaller cage in the co-main event of this Apex card. While Dominican Republic native Cortes-Acosta (14-2, 7-2 UFC) approached the divisional limit by weighing about 263 pounds, former PFL champ Delija (26-6, 1-0 UFC) is in the butter zone of the weight class at 238. Together with referee Mark Smith, they will easily surpass 600 pounds in the cage, but it hardly makes a groan from their weight. Before the two hurl their large fists at one another, they opt to tap their gloves together.
Smith has to tell the two to close their fists right after the fist bump, because they are outstretched towards one another and pushed out those directions. Delija walks Cortes-Acosta down looking for a big right hand, and he takes a clubbing right on the chest for his effort. Delija crashes the pocket and drills “Salsa Boy” on the temple, and Cortes-Acosta responds with a takedown effort that only puts the Croatian man against the wall. Cortes-Acosta digs knees to the body, and when they slow down, Smith asks for more activity. Cortes-Acosta winds up with an effective knee to the ribs, and Delija calmly waits until there is a moment to escape and does it.
Delija flicks out a jab and shoots for a double, and he now has “Salsa Boy” with his back against the wire, dealing with his weight pressed. The larger Cortes-Acosta spins his man around before long, and he raps an elbow on the forehead when otherwise staying close. Delija fights out of the tie-up and wants to box up Cortes-Acosta, marching the Dominican fighter down and busting him in the chops with a furious combination of punches. Delija keeps slugging Cortes-Acosta in the face, hurting him badly, and he pushes out with a left hand to jab Cortes-Acosta in the eyeball before letting loose with a massive stream of punches. Smith gets between them and shouts “stop!” several times, but then has to call the replay official of Herb Dean to check on whether Cortes-Acosta’s eye was poked or if they were all punches landing cleanly and legally. Teammates, medical professionals and commissioners all flood the cage to figure out what happened. The video shows that Delija’s finger slid into the eye socket, and no five-minute clock starts for recovery time. Instead, Smith states that if Cortes-Acosta is able to continue, he does have the ability to restart the fight. It is a bizarre scene, one that is growingly and frustratingly common in the promotion, and it gives Cortes-Acosta one of two options. If he cannot continue, it will be a no contest. If he says he can keep going, the fight will actually resume. Throw out the rulebook at this point. Smith warns Cortes-Acosta for the foul, and with 90 seconds left in the first round, they start fighting again.
They are cautious to engage, both jabbing at one another with their fists firmly closed.
Delija sits down on a jab, and Cortes-Acosta counters him with a brilliant right hand over the top knocking him down to the canvas. Cortes-Acosta leaps on top to pound out Delija, and Smith only lets Cortes-Acosta drum away for a few seconds before waving things off.
This is ridiculous. Cortes-Acosta walks back to his corner and collapses to the mat in pain, clutching his eye and keeping a towel pressed on it for several minutes. He just accomplished an absolutely wild comeback, albeit one that will come with a great deal of scrutiny and review. To say this whole debacle flew in the face of protocols, regulations and procedure is an understatement. We’ll see what happens.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ante Delija R1 3:59 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ante Delija

Angelo picks Ante Delija, believing he is more well-rounded and slightly better everywhere than Waldo Cortes Acosta. He highlights Delija's forward pressure, striking, takedowns, and grit, and notes his win over Marcin Tybura. He thinks Delija will get takedowns, grind, and strike with Waldo, and that Waldo is finally fighting someone better everywhere. He will spend $8,000 on Delija in his DraftKings lineup.

"I think he will get the takedowns. I think he will grind. I think he will strike with Waldo."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his excellent chin and durability, having eaten shots from heavy hitters like Sergey Pavlovich. He notes Ante Delija knocked out Martin Tybura, but Tybura has a weak chin. He expects a competitive fight going the distance, with Waldo's volume and pressure taking over in the later rounds. He predicts a decision win for Waldo.

decision, plus 115 underdog
"I'm going to pick Waldo Cortez A Costa to get the job done. ... Waldo by decision in that one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Connor also picks Waldo, noting that even in the Pavlovich loss, Waldo settled in and made it competitive. He thinks Waldo's fights trend toward the mean and that Delija's win over Tabora doesn't mean much. He expresses distrust in Delija and believes Waldo's unearned confidence will carry him.

"I'll take Waldo."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Lucrative James picks Ante Delija as the underdog, citing his training at a top European heavyweight camp with Tom Aspinall and others, which gives him advantages in sparring and preparation. He believes Delija has knockout power and a grappling edge, especially in clinch positions. While Cortes-Acosta is a better technical boxer with more UFC experience, James favors Delija's early finishing ability and motivation.

"I'm going to take the undernog in this one. I'm going to take Ante Dea."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ante Delija

Delija started as underdog but now is around -140. He mixes his game up better than Spivac, throws harder punches, and masks takedowns and clinch attempts well. This will cause Cortes Acosta problems, leading to a decision win for Delija.

odds movement from underdog to -140
"Delia started off as the underdog, but now finds himself around that minus 140 range and for good reason. ... That should lead to Dio winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The MMA Guru picks Ante Delija, believing he has improved massively and will use low kicks and teeps to outwork Waldo Cortes Acosta. He doubts Waldo's reach and thinks Delija's conditioning and game plan will secure a 29-28 decision. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall.

"I'm going to go with Ante Delija here. I said he's improved massively. I said he would beat Tybura... And he proved me right."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Zane picks Waldo because he believes Delija is a stiff, awkward fighter who relies on one big moment, and Waldo's defining characteristic is not screwing up badly. He thinks Waldo will stay ahead by not making major mistakes and that Delija lacks clear tools to be better. He notes Waldo is the underdog but still picks him.

"So I have to pick Waldo over at Andy Delia."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergei Pavlovich 0 61 of 133 45% 63 of 136 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 45 of 117 38% 45 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergei Pavlovich 0 9 of 28 32% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sergei Pavlovich 0 22 of 43 51% 22 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sergei Pavlovich 0 30 of 62 48% 30 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 14 of 46 30% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergei Pavlovich 61 of 133 45% 35 of 104 12 of 14 14 of 15 60 of 131 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 45 of 117 38% 27 of 88 4 of 10 14 of 19 45 of 114 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergei Pavlovich 9 of 28 32% 6 of 24 1 of 1 2 of 3 8 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 11 of 34 32% 5 of 20 1 of 4 5 of 10 11 of 31 0 of 3 0 of 0
2 Sergei Pavlovich 22 of 43 51% 13 of 32 5 of 7 4 of 4 22 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 20 of 37 54% 15 of 32 2 of 2 3 of 3 20 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sergei Pavlovich 30 of 62 48% 16 of 48 6 of 6 8 of 8 30 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 14 of 46 30% 7 of 36 1 of 4 6 of 6 14 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Round 1
Next up is the lone heavyweight bout of the evening—despite Brian Ortega’s best efforts—as Cortes-Acosta will look to build on his five-fight win streak and certify himself a legitimate title contender. Opposite the surging “Salsa Boy” will be Pavlovich, who seeks to reaffirm his own contender status after righting the ship against Jairzinho Rozenstruik back in February. Tasked with keeping things nice and clean will be referee Marc Goddard. Both big men are in orthodox stance, and both send out tentative jabs in the opening moments. They end up doing some lead-hand jousting as neither seems to want to be the first to go. Pavlovich is calmly maneuvering Cortes-Acosta into the cage. He comes off the fence swinging and there is an inadvertent clash of heads, but both men keep on fighting. They meet near the center of the cage and exchange a flurry of punches, with both men landing cleanly. Cortes-Acosta, far from being backed off by the Russian’s vaunted power, seems emboldened, stepping into the pocket and unloading. He lands several solid punches and takes a big one from Pavlovich in return. Cortes-Acosta lands a hard leg kick and gets countered hard with a right hand over the top. A minute left in the round and both fighters have taken some serious fire but neither is backing down. Cortes-Acosta surges forward and eats a right uppercut. The horn sounds.
10-9 Pavlovich.

Round 2
Cortes-Acosta and Pavlovich pick up right where they left off, and Pavlovich catches his man with another sneaky uppercut as he exits the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands a good jab, and Pavlovich flicks out a front kick up the middle. Cortes-Acosta wades into range with a pair of haymakers, which Pavlovich slips. Pavlovich lands a big left-right combo that hurts the Panamanian. Cortes-Acosta stumbles back into the fence but recovers quickly, and they go back to work. Cortes-Acosta scores with a hard calf kick, and Pavlovich is showing the damage from that one and the several he took in Round 1. Pavlovich cuts off the cage nicely, walks Cortes-Acosta to the warning track and nails him with two hard punches. Cortes-Acosta takes a kick to the midsection, gestures at his cup and appears to want the foul called, but Goddard tells them it was on the belt and to keep fighting. Pavlovich is gradually taking over this fight on the feet, as he is starting to find Cortes-Acosta’s head with his jab and cross over and over again.
10-9 Pavlovich.

Round 3
The final frame opens up, as the first two did, with the heavyweight contenders measuring each other for big right hands in the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands another hard leg kick and Pavlovich responds with one of his own. Pavlovich cracks Cortes-Acosta with a huge right hand that staggers him, but he recovers in a flash and makes the universal “that didn’t hurt” hand sign. Pavlovich calmly steps forward and appears to have taken his foe’s measure. Cortes-Acosta is reaching and lunging to land his punches, while Pavlovich is composed, squarely over his feet and catching him with clean counters. He is outclassing Cortes-Acosta at this point, and short of some heavyweight weirdness, the main question remaining is whether he will score the knockout. Pavlovich tags Cortes-Acosta with a pair of huge hooks that make him stumble, but doesn’t press the issue. Cortes-Acosta rebounds from the fence, wades back in and gets clocked again. Cortes-Acosta hears the 10-second clapper and gestures at the floor, but Pavlovich is not particularly interested in being on the wrong side of any last-second heroics. The final horn sounds on a quietly dominant performance by the Russian.
10-9 Pavlovich (30-27 Pavlovich).

The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo is confident in Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, calling him more well-rounded, athletic, and durable. He notes that Pavlovich is one-dimensional as a boxer and that Waldo can shoot takedowns and has a giant chin. He has a moneyline bet on Waldo at +225, which he thinks is crazy. He references Waldo's toughness and evolution as a fighter.

Has a moneyline bet on Waldo at +225.
"I have a moneyline bet on him. Plus 225 seems absolutely crazy to me. Waldo's gonna be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win, but with hesitation due to Pavlovich's recent lack of killer instinct since being knocked out by Aspinall. He notes that Pavlovich has been hesitant in recent fights, but if the old Pavlovich shows up, he will knock out Cortes Acosta in the first round. He is worried Pavlovich might stick at range or wrestle, making the fight harder.

Pavlovich by first round knockout if he comes forward
"I'm gonna go Pavlovich here, but I'm not sure I'm that confident."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Connor is confident Pavlovich should win, as he is the first elite-level heavyweight Cortes Acosta has faced. He notes that Pavlovich has better punching mechanics, more power, and a significant reach advantage (84 inches vs 78). However, he worries that Pavlovich might get deer-in-the-headlights against Cortes Acosta's size and durability, leading to a staring contest. Connor also mentions that Pavlovich looked good in his last fight, showing improved wrestling and striking choices.

Odds: Pavlovich opened -350, now -227; Cortes Acosta opened +285, now +192. Connor is surprised Cortes Acosta is getting underdog takers.
"Pavlovich is big enough and strong enough and powerful enough in the way speevok isn't to just get takedowns by merely being there."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The host initially thought he would like the plus money on Cortes Acosta, but after seeing the confidence and discipline from Pavlovich in his last fight, he thinks Pavlovich can shut down the jab of Cortes Acosta and land big shots leading to knockdowns, knockouts, or takedowns. He expects Pavlovich to be in the driver's seat and win on the scorecards.

odds comment: initially liked plus money on Cortes Acosta
"Going into this, I thought I would love the plus money on Cortez Acasta, but seeing the confidence and discipline from Pavlovich from his last fight, I think he can bring that here against Cortez Aosta, shut down the jab …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round KO. He highlights Pavlovich's 14-inch reach advantage and believes he is more athletic, faster, and more powerful than Cortes Acosta. He criticizes Cortes Acosta's close decisions against unranked opponents and notes that Pavlovich has finished similar fighters quickly. He also mentions that Pavlovich can use grappling and low kicks if needed.

Sergei Pavlovich by first round KO; under 70.5 significant strikes combined (PrizePicks)
"I'm going to go with Sergey Pavlovich to win this fight by KO... Nasty KO win first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cortes Acosta's style is a neutralizer that relies on not doing anything stupid, but Pavlovich's power and athleticism should overwhelm him. He points out that Pavlovich's wins often come from opponents freaking out, but he still has the tools to win. Zane is hopeful Pavlovich can make the fight entertaining.

"Hopefully pavlovich can make this fight as entertaining as we would like."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 48 of 119 40% 53 of 124 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:25
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 110 of 235 46% 111 of 236 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 36 38% 17 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:36
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 59 45% 28 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 36 of 77 46% 36 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Serghei Spivac 0 16 of 41 39% 18 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 47 of 99 47% 47 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 48 of 119 40% 39 of 109 4 of 5 5 of 5 45 of 115 3 of 4 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 110 of 235 46% 76 of 196 16 of 20 18 of 19 105 of 225 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 14 of 36 38% 11 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 59 45% 12 of 41 8 of 11 7 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 18 of 42 42% 12 of 35 3 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 36 of 77 46% 21 of 62 7 of 7 8 of 8 33 of 72 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Serghei Spivac 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 47 of 99 47% 43 of 93 1 of 2 3 of 4 46 of 95 1 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Serghei Spivac
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivac (-148), Cortes-Acosta (+124)

Round 1
Mike Beltran is once again the referee. Spivac opens the round with a strong jab and then misses an overhand right. Cortes-Acosta eats a right hand and then a head kick. Spivac is very aggressive early. Nice leg kick lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta throws a left hook, but it comes up very short. Spivac catches a low kick and clinches with Cortes-Acosta. Spivac goes to the body with left hands. Cortes-Acosta is trying to circle out but can't free himself of the clinch. They finally break. Cortes-Acosta resets after eating a jab and then lands a big right hand. Spivac is walking down Cortes-Acosta and keeping him against the cage. The two heavyweights trade jabs. Cortes-Acosta throws a front kick up the middle and then a leg kick. Spivac ends the round defending well as Cortes-Acosta gets more aggressive.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac

Round 2
Spivac once again takes the center of the cage. A big overhand right connects for Cortes-Acosta, who then throws hard to the body. Despite losing the first round, Cortes-Acosta is finding his confidence inside the cage. Spivac is much less active this round. Spivac's jabs are landing. The two trade hooks, with Spivac landing. Hard leg kicks from Cortes-Acosta, who has the more varied attack. Spivac clinches but can't keep him there. Cortes-Acosta's shorts just ripped, but it isn't impacting the action. Cortes-Acosta lands another leg kick, but that allows Spivac to charge forward with a takedown attempt. Cortes-Acosta stays on his feet and then lands a 1-2. Spivac answers back with a high kick that doesn't quite land. Cortes-Acosta is jabbing and going to the body with his punches. Spivac looks to be slowing down as he's unable to match the volume of punches of Cortes-Acosta. 30 seconds left. The two trade jabs. A nice jab to the body by Cortes-Acosta. The round ends with Cortes-Acosta landing a hook to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta gets a new pair of shorts on between rounds, so that crisis is averted. Cortes-Acosta is working his jab well. A huge overhand right hand lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta pretends to be totally dazed by the punch, which glances off the side of his head, but Spivac doesn't bite. Cortes-Acosta tries to catch Spivac but eats a big elbow instead. Spivac has the momentum with three minutes left. A nice step-in knee for Cortes-Acosta. Spivac misses with a high kick and then looks to clinch. Cortes-Acosta slips out and answers with a 1-2 combination. Two minutes left. Spivac throws a big right hand, but he's being peppered away at by Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta is showing some fatigue, as he isn't throwing back after slipping punches like he was earlier. Spivac goes for another takedown and picks up Cortes-Acosta. However, Cortes-Acosta gets back to his feet before Spivac can take advantage of the situation. Spivac is eating jabs while whiffing overhand rights. A big straight right lands for Spivac right before the round expires, but it might be too little, too late.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Serghei Spivac via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as an underdog, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and improvements since his loss to Del Lima. He thinks Spivac is unathletic and lumbering, and Waldo's foot movement and power will be too much. He bet half a unit on Waldo because he likes betting dogs at that stake.

Bet half a unit on Waldo as a dog.
"I threw a half a unit on him as a bet cuz when I bet dogs, I only do a half a unit instead of a full."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that when Spivac is on, he ragdolls opponents, but when he faces adversity, he folds. He thinks Spivac should be able to take down Cortes Acosta, who has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and that Spivac can finish by submission or TKO. He predicts a second-round submission but says he probably won't bet it because of the risk.

Spivac by submission in round 2
"I'm going to take Spac, but my concern and and why I probably won't be betting him here is because there is a chance he shows up and it looks like he doesn't want to be there and he gets …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Spivac is expected to deal with Acosta's striking, take the fight to the ground, and keep Acosta on his back until a submission opportunity opens. The pick is for Spivac to win by submission.

win by submission
"I fully expect Spac to deal with Aosta's striking, eventually take this fight to the ground, keeping Cortez Aosta on his back until that submission opportunity opens itself, giving Spac the win by submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac, believing his grappling will be the edge. He notes Spivac had moments against Jailton Almeida and submitted Marcin Tybura. He worries about Spivac's striking but thinks he can take Waldo down and finish by submission or TKO in the first two rounds. He acknowledges Waldo could win again but trusts Spivac's grappling.

Finish prediction: first round submission or second round TKO. Fight not going past two rounds.
"I'm going to go Sergey Spivac. I'm going to say that Sergey Spivac is going to get his grappling off here and be able to submit Waldo Cortez A Costa."
WIN vs Ryan Spann
KO R2 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 66 of 111 59% 77 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:57
Ryan Spann 0 23 of 86 26% 24 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 49 55% 31 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Ryan Spann 0 12 of 33 36% 13 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 39 of 62 62% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ryan Spann 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 111 59% 56 of 97 4 of 6 6 of 8 59 of 100 1 of 2 6 of 9
Ryan Spann 23 of 86 26% 11 of 70 5 of 9 7 of 7 22 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 49 55% 21 of 40 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ryan Spann 12 of 33 36% 5 of 23 2 of 5 5 of 5 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 39 of 62 62% 35 of 57 3 of 3 1 of 2 34 of 55 0 of 0 5 of 7
Ryan Spann 11 of 53 20% 6 of 47 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-166), Spann (+140)

Round 1
The preliminaries conclude with a heavyweight match that could provide a new contender when the dust settles. Cortes-Acosta (12-1, 5-1 UFC) has won five of six as a full-framed heavyweight, and his opponent Spann (22-10, 8-5 UFC) is introducing himself to the weight class by no longer cutting weight. The ex-205er weighed 249 pounds, so he will be adequately sized as he also stands an inch taller. Referee Mark Smith will be minding his P’s and Q’s as the big men throw down, and he stands by as they clap hands first. Spann strikes first with a heavy leg kick, and Smith tells the heavyweights to watch their extended fingers. Cortes-Acosta responds with his own low kick, but Spann’s has much more behind it. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a left hook, and a big overhand right of his bangs into Spann’s raised guard. Spann kicks high and is blocked, and he kicks low but is not. Cortes-Acosta wades in with winging punches, and Spann is well out of harm’s way in time. Spann hammers the front leg with a kick, and he counters one coming his way with a thudding overhand right that stuns the man from Dominican Republic. Cortes-Acosta leans forward and the two clash heads, and Smith calls time to make sure no damage resulted from it. He resumes them, and the fighters trade punches. Cortes-Acosta catches Spann on the temple with a blistering right hand, and he uses his weight to drag Spann to the fence. Spann breaks free and plunks Cortes-Acosta with an overhand right, but Cortes-Acosta’s uppercut shakes him up again. Both men swing their fists from down beneath their hips, getting full torque into it. They both lash out with low kicks, and Cortes-Acosta checks it and draws a funny reaction from his opponent. Spann comes up short with a front kick, and Cortes-Acosta chews up his front leg with another kick. Spann goes to the body with his front kick, and Cortes-Acosta winds up with bad intentions looping his haymakers at the former light heavyweight. They clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta drives punches into Spann until Spann breaks away and launches some of his own. Spann gets off a low kick and slips out of the way from “Salsa Boy,” and Cortes-Acosta measures his man with a jab and a right hand that hurts Spann again. Cortes-Acosta’s forward momentum results in a tie-up, using his higher weight to toss Spann to his back. Spann tries to upkick him in the legs a few times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The fighters lead off with a brief glove touch, and Spann is quick to fight behind his jab. Cortes-Acosta snaps his head back with a straight right hand, and he is met with a front kick to the belly. Cortes-Acosta jabs his man in the belly, but the fist goes low and bangs into Spann’s cup. Smith calls time, and Spann drops to his knees and takes a little under a minute to recover. They resume, and Cortes-Acosta flashes out his jab as Spann does the same. Cortes-Acosta scores a left and a right, and Spann indicates he was poked in the eye. Smith again pauses the action and checks the replay, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Spann jams the body with a kick, and he wings a huge right hand that Cortes-Acosta rolls with. Spann whiffs on another, and a third is met with a sharp jab from his foe. Spann is irritated about getting poked in the eye, and Smith issues a loud warning to Cortes-Acosta. Spann overthrows his punches, and the Dominican is beating him to the punch and clips the Fortis MMA fighter with his overhand right. Cortes-Acosta kicks the inner thigh, and the strike pounds square into his cup. Smith sighs heavily and calls time one more time. Spann crouches down and is not a happy camper after receiving these fouls, and Smith issues a final warning to Cortes-Acosta to keep things clean. The Texan takes more time than before to get his wind back, with Cortes-Acosta getting away with multiple fouls without a point deduction. The fighters get back to business after another 90-second break, and Spann returns to fighting behind his jab. Spann rifles off a calf kick, and Cortes-Acosta lands a powerful right hand across the forward bow. “Superman” dodges a check left hook but is unable to get away from the jab, and Cortes-Acosta loads up on his overhand right and sways the right direction to avoid one coming his direction. Cortes-Acosta prods with a jab until Spann bears down on him, and he uses the jab again to keep Spann honest. A one-two from Spann does not find its target, and he dances away from a similar pair of blows. Cortes-Acosta’s head movement and footwork keeps him safe, and he clubs Spann in the side of the dome. Spann spins with a back kick, and he shoots for a double that is met with 262 pounds of meat and several punches on the side of the head. Spann explodes back to his feet, and Cortes-Acosta is on him clubbing him with fists.
Spann swings back, still in trouble, and Cortes-Acosta sticks him with a jab and follows with a short left hook that levels Spann. When “Superman” hits the ground, Smith is already racing in towards the fighters, only to allow a few more punctuating hammerfists and punches to briefly shut Spann’s lights out.
Smith gets between them and allows Cortes-Acosta to reposition his foe’s legs who are tangled up with his, and Cortes-Acosta walks off to celebrate his handiwork. The ranked heavyweight calls for fights against either Tai Tuivasa or Derrick Lewis, and both are within his reach given his success in the division thus far.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ryan Spann R2 4:48 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. He believes Waldo is faster, has better movement, and cardio, while Spann's last win was his first in three years against an older opponent. He notes that public money might come in on Spann, making Waldo even better value.

"Waldo's the pick and that's not just because we were both in the movie the burden of Nine Lives."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, reasoning that Ryan Spann is a round-one-or-bust fighter who fades after the first five minutes. He notes Spann's last win outside the first round was a split decision in 2020. Brady believes Cortes Acosta has good durability and cardio, and if he survives the first round, he will take over in the later rounds with higher output. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez aosta by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Julius Walker, noting that the UFC is giving him a bounce-back fight after a competitive debut against Alonzo Menifield. He believes Raphael Cerqueira is a low-level opponent with poor durability and that Walker will win easily. He acknowledges the high price but sees it as a safe play.

"I feel like Julius really puts it on him. And the UFC understands fully. We've seen guys like Martin Budai six and one in the UFC cut. We've seen guys, you know, talented prospects, maybe like a TJ Laramie, he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host believes Cortes Acosta's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, allowing him to run away with the matchup in deep water and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cortez a Costa's ability to keep span at Bay utilizing some decent enough takedown defense keeping this fight in the stand up realm and I think that will see Cortez aosta start to run away with this matchup …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Walker, citing his athleticism and the favorable matchup. He notes that Cerqueira has a padded record and has been knocked out quickly. He believes Walker will roll and sees value in the win, despite the high price.

"Walker for me. You"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, believing in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight. He notes Spann has touch-of-death power and dangerous grappling, though he has bad IQ moments. He criticizes Waldo Cortes Acosta as a 'fat heavyweight' who nearly got fraud-checked by Jared Vanderaa and has poor takedown entries. He thinks Spann's experience against better competition gives him the edge, and he expects a knockout.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span I'm GNA go with Ryan span over wildo Cortez a Costa I believe in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 52 of 101 51% 130 of 204 3 of 4 75% 1 0 9:49
Robelis Despaigne 0 26 of 52 50% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 6 of 10 60% 34 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:32
Robelis Despaigne 0 2 of 7 28% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 25 of 54 46% 42 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:44
Robelis Despaigne 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 21 of 37 56% 54 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:33
Robelis Despaigne 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 52 of 101 51% 44 of 92 0 of 0 8 of 9 15 of 24 0 of 1 37 of 76
Robelis Despaigne 26 of 52 50% 11 of 36 2 of 3 13 of 13 26 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 6 of 10 60% 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6
Robelis Despaigne 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 25 of 54 46% 22 of 51 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 12 0 of 1 17 of 41
Robelis Despaigne 13 of 28 46% 7 of 21 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 21 of 37 56% 17 of 32 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 8 0 of 0 16 of 29
Robelis Despaigne 11 of 17 64% 2 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 9 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Despaigne (-192), Cortes-Acosta (+160)

Round 1
A heavyweight appetizer kicks off the main card before the main course between big men. Fastball-throwing Dominican Cortes-Acosta (11-1, 4-1 UFC) will ply his trade against skyscraping power puncher Despaigne (5-0, 1-0 UFC) in a pairing that may not go more than a minute or two. Referee Josh Stewart knows that danger is looming, but he is prepped and ready for what’s about to befall these two fighters. The large fists are not bumped before they get down to business. Despaigne keeps his hands low, and he walks through a leg kick and smashes Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand. Despaigne connects with a few more thunderous punches, and Cortes-Acosta answers his offense by shooting in and securing an easy takedown. Cortes-Acosta lands in half guard, where he holds down the taekwondo star and takes a few elbows on the side of the head. Cortes-Acosta is unable to maintain chest-to-chest pressure, but his sitting on the left leg of his foe prevents “The Bad Boy” from going anywhere. Cortes-Acosta starts softening up the body, and Despaigne flails off his back. Cortes-Acosta wrenches on Despaigne’s right arm to set up a keylock, and he begins to torque it on his second effort. Despaigne wriggles his arm free, turning to his side to prevent from being stuck flat on his back. This position allows him to also defend from the few strikes that come at him. Cortes-Acosta grinds his elbow on him and tries to present a forearm choke, but there is nothing to it. Cortes-Acosta rides out the round on top, dragging Despaigne to uncharted territory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
Despaigne starts the round off with a long front kick, and he backs Cortes-Acosta off with long punches. Despaigne kicks low twice, and Cortes-Acosta responds with one of his own. Despaigne lunges forward with a single punch, and he gets caught backing off with a couple of long strikes from the former baseball player. The two trade leg kicks, and Despaigne unloads a head kick that gets blocked and fires one from the other side as well. Cortes-Acosta shoots for a takedown, and this time, the 6-foot-7 fighter stonewalls him. Despaigne breaks free, and the two big men start trading. Cortes-Acosta lands with heavy hands, and he pushes Despaigne back. Despaigne plods forward and whiffs on an overhand right, and the two are sucking wind two minutes into the second round. Despaigne kicks the ribcage, and wings two punches, and Cortes-Acosta signals to him that he has no sting on his punches. Cortes-Acosta nails his man with an uppercut, and Despaigne decides to tie them up. Cortes-Acosta uses the position to secure a body lock and toss Despaigne to the mat, and he climbs directly into full mount. Cortes-Acosta works the body a few times and lands some to the head, and he postures up and starts battering Despaigne with heavy fists. Despaigne twists and turns, only for Cortes-Acosta to sit heavily on top of his abdomen. Cortes-Acosta slams down a couple elbows and opens up with hammerfists and punches, but they are more for dramatic effect than actual stopping power. Cortes-Acosta drives home a few body shots and then goes to the head with punches until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
The heavyweights have unexpectedly reached the third round, and their energy reserves are running low. Cortes-Acosta tosses out a half-hearted low kick, and he misses with another as Despaigne loads up on two of his own. Despaigne sticks out a jab that dislodges the mouthpiece of his opponent, and he reaches with a second. Cortes-Acosta checks a kick and mocks his undefeated adversary, and he easily blocks a jumping switch kick. Despaigne kicks his lead leg a few times, and Cortes-Acosta shrugs at him. Cortes-Acosta gives him one low kick back, and he surges into action with a right hook. Cortes-Acosta slaps a low kick on the front leg, and Despaigne counters him with a front kick that snaps the head back. As the crowd gasps, Cortes-Acosta waves in the air to signal he is fine. Despaigne’s mouth is wide open as his hands are down by his waist, and he walks forward without concern. Cortes-Acosta ties him up and turns him around to push him to the fence, and he scoops the taller man up and deposits him gingerly to the floor. Cortes-Acosta shifts to side control before deciding to move himself back to half guard for control purposes, and he smacks Despaigne a few times and starts talking to someone outside of the cage. Cortes-Acosta bops Despaigne with feeble hammerfists and some light punches, more to stay busy than try to conclude the pairing. Cortes-Acosta is shouting at Despaigne, who is totally defeated and has nothing left to offer. Cortes-Acosta sits up and rains down punches, and Despaigne turns all the way over to grab one leg and defend his mug from ground strikes. Cortes-Acosta keeps hold of Despaigne’s right arm and slams him in the face with his own right until the horrible heavyweight match concludes. Barring something horrendous, Despaigne will be leaving the ranks of the unbeaten, and any confidence of him going far at heavyweight has been shattered to pieces.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Robelis Despaigne via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne due to his Olympic taekwondo background, size (6'7"), and insane power. He notes Despaigne's last four fights totaled 37 seconds, but admits there is no data on his chin or cardio. He acknowledges Waldo Cortes Acosta's toughness and durability but believes Despaigne's physical advantages are too much.

"I got to go rob Bellis he's athletic he's tremendous he hits insanely hard"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to knock out Waldo Cortes Acosta in the first round, likely in the first minute. He is impressed by Despaigne's size (6'7", 87" reach) and his 'death touch,' having knocked out opponents in seconds. He notes that Acosta is not a wrestler, so Despaigne won't have to worry about takedowns. He believes Despaigne is the real deal and passes this step-up in competition.

PrizePicks play: less than 4.75 minutes fight time
"I think rebellis hits Waldo Cortez a Costa so hard that he starts doing the salsa dance and eventually puts him out probably in in the first minute"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody picks Despaigne but is leaning, not confident. He notes that Despaigne has never been out of the first round and has massive power and reach. However, he is concerned about Despaigne's lack of grappling and cardio. Cody prefers the under 1.5 rounds prop, which he parlayed with other unders, as it covers both a Despaigne KO or a potential submission loss. He is not willing to bet Despaigne's moneyline due to the unknowns.

Under 1.5 rounds (-200) parlayed with other unders
"I feel like the under one and a half is probably robis is uh his money line is pretty much in tow with that like he either knocks Waldo out or he gets exposed in this spot"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel Vreeland picks Robelis Despaigne, calling himself on the Despaigne hype train. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach (longest in UFC history), Olympic taekwondo background, and brutal knockouts. He acknowledges that Despaigne hasn't proven it against top competition but believes he will knock out Cortes-Acosta, who has been knocked out in a boxing match before.

by KO
"I'm on the Despaigne hype train now and again what does that truly mean I don't know what the ceiling is yet but I know that there's going to be a lot of brutal Knockouts along the way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The host expects Despaigne to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive size, speed, and power advantage. He notes Cortes Acosta has never been KO'd in MMA but has been knocked out in boxing, and believes Despaigne's style will overwhelm him. He prefers the round 1 KO prop at even money rather than the moneyline at -200. The pick is confident for the finish, though he acknowledges Despaigne's one-dimensional style.

Round 1 KO prop at even money is the better play
"I think that this will be a bad match up for him as rebellis goes out there and finds The Knockout in the first round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Cortes Acosta as a confident underdog. He argues that Despaigne is a mystery with no proven grappling or cardio, while Cortes Acosta has multiple paths to victory: volume, cardio, takedowns, and durability. Paul notes that Cortes Acosta has never been knocked out in MMA and has fought tough competition. He believes Despaigne's lack of experience and training at a small gym will be exposed. Paul sees value at plus money and is willing to fade the hype.

"give me the plus money on Waldo aosta Cortez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru picks Robelis Despaigne over Waldo Cortes Acosta, noting that Cortes Acosta nearly lost to Jared Vanderaa and has questionable wins. He believes Despaigne's reach and kicking background will be key, and that he can chew up Cortes Acosta's legs. He predicts a TKO win, though he acknowledges the odds are closer than expected.

TKO
"I'm going rebellious to Spain... I think he'll win this fight by TKO."
Chase Sherman - Fight History
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 0 70 of 165 42% 85 of 191 1 of 10 10% 0 0 2:35
Chase Sherman 0 54 of 158 34% 64 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 19 of 43 44% 34 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:41
Chase Sherman 0 11 of 39 28% 17 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karl Williams 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Chase Sherman 0 13 of 56 23% 15 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karl Williams 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:31
Chase Sherman 0 30 of 63 47% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 70 of 165 42% 53 of 147 6 of 6 11 of 12 65 of 159 2 of 3 3 of 3
Chase Sherman 54 of 158 34% 26 of 124 10 of 15 18 of 19 46 of 148 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 19 of 43 44% 14 of 38 2 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 38 2 of 2 3 of 3
Chase Sherman 11 of 39 28% 6 of 32 0 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Karl Williams 23 of 63 36% 17 of 56 2 of 2 4 of 5 23 of 62 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 13 of 56 23% 5 of 47 1 of 2 7 of 7 13 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karl Williams 28 of 59 47% 22 of 53 2 of 2 4 of 4 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 30 of 63 47% 15 of 45 9 of 11 6 of 7 23 of 56 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Angelo is very confident in Karl Williams, calling him a powerful striker with solid wrestling. He notes Chase Sherman is hittable with no head movement and doesn't have one-punch knockout power. He says Williams should dominate bell to bell and is a safe parlay piece. He urges to smash the line even at -400.

Safe parlay piece
"you need to smash this line you need to smash it it's already not great at minus 400 but Carl Williams should dominate this Bell to Bell"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady is very confident in Williams, calling this a tailor-made matchup. He notes Sherman has terrible takedown defense and one of the worst ground games in the UFC, citing his losses to Romanov and Collier. Williams has good wrestling, as shown in his Contender Series win over Jimmy Lawson. Brady predicts Williams will take Sherman down, pound him out, and get a finish inside the distance. He says if Williams doesn't finish Sherman here, he never will.

inside the distance (submission or TKO)
"I think if Carl Williams does not finished Chase Sherman he will never finish anybody and the rest of his career because this is like a tailor-made matchup for Carl Williams"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Cody picks Williams confidently, citing Sherman's poor takedown defense and tendency to gas. He notes that Williams will take Sherman down and control him, and that Sherman's punching power is overrated. He expects Williams to win by decision or late stoppage, and likes the over 3 takedowns prop for Williams.

over 3 takedowns for Williams on PrizePicks
"I gotta go with Williams I mean here's the thing about Chase too though is that like he's not exactly like a power puncher"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Williams is much faster and a rare heavyweight with good wrestling. He notes that Sherman's style requires a brawl, but Williams can avoid that by taking him down. Connor feels bad for Sherman, who seems to dislike fighting, and expects Williams to win easily.

"I just expect that line to get wider. Frankly. It honestly should."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Daniel Levi picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that while Williams may have cardio concerns, Sherman is not a cardio machine either. Levi expects Williams to implement his game plan and break Sherman late, securing his second UFC win. He also mentions calling Williams' amateur fights and being impressed by his journey.

"I think ultimately Carl Williams can be able to implement that takedown game break Sherman late come out here and get a second UFC win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Sherman has a gut feeling pick; Williams has cardio issues and leaves openings. Sherman can survive the early onslaught, work back to his feet, and land big punches for a knockout. Williams slows down and Sherman has the experience to capitalize. Low confidence but Sherman by knockout is the call.

"I'm gonna go chase Sherman by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul picks Sherman as a value underdog due to heavyweight volatility, but is hesitant. He notes Sherman's puncher's chance and the fact that Williams is not a real heavyweight. He mentions a previous Shoei bet on Williams and is considering waiting for better odds. He acknowledges Williams' grappling advantage but is not confident.

Shoei bet (3-1) on Williams if accepted
"I'm gonna say heavyweight volatility for the purpose of this show I'm picking Chase Sherman but I'm a little bit more hesitant a little bit less gung-ho than last time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karl Williams

The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams, noting his wrestling advantage and Sherman's tendency to lose by being taken down. He believes Williams will take Sherman down and beat him up on the ground, as Sherman has a lot of miles on him.

"I'm gonna go if Carl Williams here over Chase Sherman... I think that Carl Williams is going to be able to take down Chase Sherman and even do okay on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Zane is confident in Karl Williams, citing his speed advantage and wrestling ability as clear edges over Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman lacks defense and enjoyment in fighting, and that Williams can take him down at will. Zane expects Williams to dominate, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound.

"Williams though, doesn't even have to have that fight with him. No, no, he doesn't. He's just going to take him down."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 66 of 177 37% 73 of 187 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Chase Sherman 0 147 of 278 52% 149 of 282 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 18 of 50 36% 23 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Chase Sherman 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 21 of 48 43% 22 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Chase Sherman 0 71 of 121 58% 73 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 79 34% 28 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chase Sherman 0 47 of 86 54% 47 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 177 37% 25 of 130 16 of 19 25 of 28 66 of 174 0 of 3 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 147 of 278 52% 124 of 247 17 of 25 6 of 6 142 of 271 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 18 of 50 36% 6 of 36 4 of 5 8 of 9 18 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 29 of 71 40% 19 of 60 6 of 7 4 of 4 27 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 21 of 48 43% 8 of 34 6 of 7 7 of 7 21 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 71 of 121 58% 66 of 113 5 of 8 0 of 0 68 of 116 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 79 34% 11 of 60 6 of 7 10 of 12 27 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 47 of 86 54% 39 of 74 6 of 10 2 of 2 47 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Chase Sherman
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-210), Sherman (+180)

Round 1
The year is 2022, and because of unfortunate circumstances, Sherman (16-10, 4-9 UFC), who has won four times in 13 walks to the Octagon thus far, is serving in a UFC card’s co-main event. He is on a one-fight win streak, as he put Jared Vanderaa away in July to break a four-fight skid. “The Vanilla Gorilla” will square off against an unbeaten former baseball player in Cortes-Acosta (8-0, 1-0 UFC), who also beat Vanderaa a few weeks ago. Referee Jacob Montalvo draws the charge for a fight that could end in an instant, but he does appreciate that the two are in good spirits as they touch ‘em up before colliding. The big men aim jabs and single punches at one another to measure their range. Sherman strikes first with a powerful strike, sinking in a calf kick on the inside of the leg and the another on the outside. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with a jab, and Sherman smashes his shin on the calf as “Salsa Boy” does a little impromptu dance to recover. Sherman puts his jab in his foe’s face, and Cortes-Acosta responds in kind. Sherman mixes things up with his low kicks, and he plants his leg on the midsection as well. Cortes-Acosta charges with a flurry, and Sherman slides out of the way of the worst of it and sinks in another low kick. Cortes-Acosta rifles a few jabs and a right hand down the pipe, and Sherman takes it on the chin. The big men kick at the same time, and they both take an odd step back before coming back to trade hands. Sherman sticks and moves as Cortes-Acosta rushes forward in a straight line, but he does not avoid the chopping kick at the end of the salvo. Sherman backs the undefeated fighter up, but he does not walk face-first into a big overhand right. Cortes-Acosta loads up on power punches, and Sherman keeps his composure and trashes the lead leg of his opponent with a brutal kick. Cortes-Acosta reaches down and grabs it, where he uses it to bully Sherman into the wall in hopes of dragging him down. Sherman escapes and turns the tables to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta plays the proverbial game of putting one hand down on the mat to prevent knee strikes to the head. Cortes-Acosta explodes out with a jab and an uppercut, but Sherman takes the wind out of his sails by throwing him down on the floor and landing in side control. Before anything can come of it, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sherman

Round 2
The second round opens with several stiff jabs from the ex-baseball player, and he walks through a low kick to continue jabbing Sherman up. Sherman’s face begins to turn red as he absorbs repeated jabs, and he backs off when Cortes-Acosta turns up the offense and attacks. “Salsa Boy” blitzes Sherman with a long series of punches, knocking Sherman’s head around and hurting him badly. Sherman survives by clinching up and hanging on to clear his head, doing so long enough to shake it out before Cortes-Acosta pushes him away. When separated, Cortes-Acosta unloads again with a string of punches, and Sherman takes them all and fires back to rock Cortes-Acosta. The undefeated fighter bounces off the wall and connects with a right hand that stuns Sherman, but Sherman’s chin holds together after the ferocious blow. Cortes-Acosta rails Sherman with heavy punches, and he shrugs off a leg kick and stops a takedown that is aimed at him. Cortes-Acosta pops out several jabs to fluster Sherman, and he checks a low kick and does a showboating dance. Cortes-Acosta surges into action, battering Sherman with several fierce punches. Cortes-Acosta catches a low kick and responds with a body kick, but Sherman protests the foot hit him in the groin. Montalvo tell them to play on, and Cortes-Acosta obliges by swarming his man with punches. Cortes-Acosta unleashes a hellacious salvo of uppercuts, standing hammerfists, flailing fists and other ridiculous punches in hopes of getting Sherman out of there, but Sherman makes it through them all. Cortes-Acosta appears to have completely spent his gas tank searching for that finish, as he practically puts his hands on his hips from fatigue. The round concludes with the two clinched up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
The heavyweights reach the last round, and both men are feeling it. Sherman appears the fresher man of the two, as Cortes-Acosta is slowed and keeps his hands low. The volume of the two fighters has diminished greatly, relegated to bursts of one man and then the other. Cortes-Acosta checks a low kick and takes a front kick to the body, and Sherman kicks him in the side. This third kick prompts Cortes-Acosta into action, as he races forward with a booming right hand. Sherman is barely on his feet, and Cortes-Acosta pummels him with a few more fastballs that Sherman incredibly takes. The two are sucking wind, and Sherman gathers himself and walks Cortes-Acosta down and connects with a few punches and a knee up the middle. They trade punches, with defense an afterthought as exhaustion overcomes both men. Cortes-Acosta works the body and head, and starts playing around with his hands as he does not appear concerned with Sherman’s power. Sherman answers this with a few quick punches and a low kick, and a second makes Cortes-Acosta wag his finger at him. Cortes-Acosta ducks down with a right hand up top, and he is so spent that he can barely make a fist. As a result, Cortes-Acosta slaps Sherman a few times with an open hand, and Sherman jumps forward with heavy punches. Cortes-Acosta flails and swings with little mustard on his shots, and he still catches Sherman coming at him with a short right hand. Try as he might, the unbeaten fighter cannot put Sherman out of there, but he backs away and keeps throwing punches and kicks right to the final horn. Sherman is tough, doing the same, and walking through anything coming his way, and this heavyweight slobberknocker has surprisingly gone the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Chase Sherman via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
TKO (punches) R3 3:10 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 0 109 of 266 40% 109 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 137 of 235 58% 137 of 235 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 29 of 92 31% 29 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 46 of 70 65% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 0 44 of 102 43% 44 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chase Sherman 0 36 of 72 50% 36 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 51 of 84 60% 51 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 109 of 266 40% 76 of 224 18 of 25 15 of 17 108 of 265 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 137 of 235 58% 86 of 175 32 of 39 19 of 21 134 of 231 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 29 of 92 31% 15 of 75 6 of 9 8 of 8 29 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 46 of 70 65% 21 of 43 17 of 19 8 of 8 46 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 44 of 102 43% 34 of 87 6 of 9 4 of 6 44 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 40 of 81 49% 26 of 62 7 of 12 7 of 7 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chase Sherman 36 of 72 50% 27 of 62 6 of 7 3 of 3 35 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 51 of 84 60% 39 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 6 48 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

"Jared bandera is the pick... this should be a pick and fight the odds are heavily favoring jared van dara I think this is closer to even."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

first round ground and pound TKO
"jared bandera first round grounded pound victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

Mentions Vanderaa over 51.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
"vandarin not going to take him down early i bet what he needs to do is weather the early storm and just continuously put on pressure continuously come forward wear on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

"Sherman vanderaa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

"another spot i think is dog or pass but like i i don't think i can build up the courage after coming off of like such a horrible week last week to bet uh chase sherman at plus 175 but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.

TKO or submission in the second round
"Jared Vanderaa is the lock."
Submission (americana) R1 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.

parlay piece; was -2500 favorite initially
"alexander romanov is absolutely 100 gonna be the win here and if you can get him at odds that are not minus 2500 throw him in a parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.

first round finish, submission or TKO
"i would be shocked if this left the first round i think romanov cruises here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.

Romanov inside the distance, Romanov first round (mentioned as -450 on his parlay)
"alexander romanov first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.

"i think romano's gonna dominate him and destroy him so yeah i get people are taken aback ... the odds suck so just sit back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.

Romanov inside the distance -650, Romanov round 1 -180
"romanov romanov easy money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.

Romanov inside the distance (mentioned as -550 or -700), Romanov TKO (personal pick)
"romanov should smash a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.

Romanov by first-round TKO (ground and pound)
"i do believe that alexander romanov is gonna go out there as i said before and get a first round submission on chase sherman... i think i'm actually going to lean more in the favor of a ground and pound …"
LOSS vs Jake Collier
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:26 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Collier 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Chase Sherman 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Collier 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Chase Sherman 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Collier 20 of 49 40% 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 1 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 13
Chase Sherman 10 of 17 58% 8 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Collier 20 of 49 40% 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 1 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 13
Chase Sherman 10 of 17 58% 8 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Angelo picks Sherman in a close fight, citing his better athleticism and pace. He notes both are similar boxers but Sherman has better volume and durability, while Collier may fade. He expects a striking war going to decision and won't bet on it.

No stoppage expected; fight goes to decision.
"i like chase to keep a pace and take a decision here but this is another fight that's super close"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady notes Jake Collier throws high volume but has no power, while Chase Sherman hits hard and has a 93% knockout rate. He thinks Sherman's durability and power will be the difference, predicting a knockout. However, he admits neither fighter is reliable and that Collier could win a decision if he survives. He picks Sherman by knockout but is not confident.

Sherman by knockout
"i'll take sherman by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Cody picks Collier, agreeing with Paul's analysis. He notes Sherman's cardio issues and Collier's volume striking. He expects Collier to win by decision or late TKO. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced, indicating a likely decision.

"i'll lean towards collier"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, citing his higher work rate and slightly better technique. He warns about Chase Sherman's leg kicks and durability but notes Sherman's cardio drops off in later rounds, which has been a consistent issue even before his USADA suspension. Levi believes Collier can capitalize on Sherman's fatigue and land effective strikes. He also mentions that Collier looked good against Valente and that Sherman has shown a tendency to shy away in tough fights.

"I am also gonna go with jay collier i think that he's got the higher work rate despite what the numbers say"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jake Collier

The host favors Jake Collier due to his high output and movement, similar to Parker Porter who beat Sherman. He notes Sherman's power is a threat early, but Collier's volume and cardio should take over as the fight progresses. He expects Collier to win a decision, as he doesn't see Collier finishing Sherman. The host is confident in Collier's ability to avoid Sherman's power and accumulate strikes.

Decision bet recommended as sharper than moneyline.
"i'm going to be going jay collier and i'll be taking him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Paul picks Collier, citing Sherman's pattern of gassing after the first round. He notes Collier's high volume and durability, and expects him to outwork Sherman in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests betting Collier live after round 1 as a hedge. He also mentions Collier by decision at +150 as a prop.

Collier by decision at +150; live bet Collier after round 1
"this one screams the exact same thing so i got jake caller and beyond that i think there's an opportunity to bet him after the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jake Collier

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Jake Collier, despite acknowledging that most people are picking Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman has poor head movement and was easily beaten by Arlovski and Parker Porter. Collier, though he ballooned up from middleweight, showed some skill against Carlos Felipe and has a reach advantage. He believes Collier's technical advantages from being a former middleweight will carry him to a close split decision win in a back-and-forth fight.

"i'm leaning jake collier as dumb as it sounds i know the majority of people are picking chase sherman"
LOSS vs Parker Porter
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 149 of 278 53% 159 of 294 1 of 8 12% 0 0 2:19
Chase Sherman 0 117 of 249 46% 121 of 253 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 21 of 56 37% 30 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Chase Sherman 0 29 of 59 49% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Parker Porter 0 57 of 105 54% 58 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Chase Sherman 0 51 of 102 50% 52 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Parker Porter 0 71 of 117 60% 71 of 118 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Chase Sherman 0 37 of 88 42% 39 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 149 of 278 53% 116 of 243 17 of 17 16 of 18 141 of 270 7 of 7 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 117 of 249 46% 69 of 199 15 of 17 33 of 33 115 of 247 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 21 of 56 37% 14 of 47 1 of 1 6 of 8 19 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 29 of 59 49% 20 of 50 1 of 1 8 of 8 29 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 57 of 105 54% 48 of 96 6 of 6 3 of 3 55 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 51 of 102 50% 27 of 77 11 of 12 13 of 13 50 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Parker Porter 71 of 117 60% 54 of 100 10 of 10 7 of 7 67 of 113 4 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 37 of 88 42% 22 of 72 3 of 4 12 of 12 36 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady picks Chase Sherman confidently, citing his better competition, toughness, and power. He notes Porter is very hittable and has been finished in all his losses. Sherman has a 93% finish rate, all by knockout. He predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"i like chase sherman here quite a bit i don't really think parker porter is ufc caliber"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Cody picks Sherman, citing his athleticism, leg kicks, and volume. He notes Sherman's improved game since his first UFC stint and believes he has a clear advantage. He mentions Sherman's back issues and past PED suspension but still favors him.

"i think chase has a massive athleticism advantage in this spot i think he's going to really uh go on to those uh the the light kicks are going to be key to him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has good durability, leg kicks, and clinch work. Sherman's volume drops in later rounds, while Porter maintains his pace. If Porter survives the first round, he can take over. I'm picking Porter by decision, but I'm hesitant as some respected people are on Sherman.

over 1.5 rounds (-165); Porter by decision (+425)
"i like porter here quarterback decision laugh at me all you want but i think he has the chops to go out there and uh definitely not look like a plus 165"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter as a live underdog, highlighting his durability, leg kicks, and pressure. He questions Sherman's cardio and mental toughness, noting Sherman looked defeated against Arlovski. He sees Porter's ability to push pace and land leg kicks as key, but worries about Porter's weight cut and shape.

Fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-165); fight goes the distance (+155)
"i honestly see the fight going over one and a half minus 165 and i think fight goes the distance at plus 155 sounds crazy not crazy at all"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman to win by TKO. He notes Sherman is bigger, has good cardio, and a reach advantage. He expects Sherman to use elbows against the cage on the shorter Porter. He acknowledges Porter's win over Josh Parisian but considers it unimpressive.

TKO by elbows against the cage
"i'm gonna go chase sherman good cardio he's a massive guy for the heavyweight division much bigger than parker porter"
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 105 of 222 47% 109 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 88 of 192 45% 99 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 33 of 69 47% 33 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 32 of 69 46% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 21 of 58 36% 32 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 46 of 88 52% 46 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 34 of 65 52% 34 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 105 of 222 47% 54 of 154 26 of 39 25 of 29 103 of 217 2 of 5 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 88 of 192 45% 55 of 154 16 of 20 17 of 18 84 of 187 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 27 of 65 41% 15 of 51 4 of 6 8 of 8 25 of 61 2 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 33 of 69 47% 22 of 55 6 of 8 5 of 6 31 of 66 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 47 10 of 12 6 of 10 32 of 68 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 21 of 58 36% 12 of 49 4 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 46 of 88 52% 23 of 56 12 of 21 11 of 11 46 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 34 of 65 52% 21 of 50 6 of 8 7 of 7 33 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Big Brady picks Andrei Arlovski to win by decision, though he is not very confident. He notes that Arlovski is a favorite for the first time in many fights and that Sherman is the easiest opponent Arlovski has faced in a long time. He highlights Sherman's poor striking defense (absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute) and Arlovski's good defense (absorbs 2.83). However, he is concerned about Arlovski's age (42) and lack of knockout power. He sees the fight as close and likely to go to decision.

"i'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Cody thinks Arlovski is old and boring, landing only 30-50 significant strikes per fight. He notes Sherman is younger, has better output, and is improving. He sees Sherman outpointing Arlovski and considers it a dog or pass fight, leaning towards Sherman as the underdog.

"chase german is a plus 105 underdog and to be quite honest i'm kind of feeling the same thing it's a dodger path type fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi leans toward Arlovski, noting that he is the better fighter and a sharp counter-puncher. He acknowledges that Chase Sherman has good leg kicks and is 10 years younger, and that Arlovski is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall. Levi mentions that he has faded Arlovski in the past with mixed results, but this time he thinks Arlovski can win a close decision. He also speculates that Sherman might still be using performance-enhancing drugs.

"i'm going to lean arlowski i think he's the better fighter here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chase Sherman

Manpreet leans toward Sherman by KO, citing his improved calf-kick-heavy style and the fact that Arlovski's movement-based game could be neutralized by leg kicks. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Sherman's post-suspension performance but believes Sherman's pressure and power can lead to a finish, likely in the second round after wearing Arlovski down.

Sherman by KO +255; under 2.5 rounds +135
"i think chase sherman could go out there and beat up that front leg of uh andre arlovski and really start to go to work with his hands"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul says friends don't let friends bet on Chase Sherman, but he is leaning towards Sherman as the underdog. He acknowledges both fighters are bottom heavyweights and that Sherman is 11 years younger. He is not confident and calls it a pitbull or pass fight.

"friends don't let friends bet on chase sherman cody all right let's move on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski to win by unanimous decision. He notes Arlovski is a tricky veteran who is patient and pushes a good pace. He believes Chase Sherman needs to overwhelm opponents to win, but Arlovski's level of opposition is much higher. He expects Sherman to go all out in the first round, but Arlovski will take over in the second and third for a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to go with olofsky here against chase sherman"
TKO (elbow and punches) R2 0:49 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · May 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 1 51 of 87 58% 51 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 16 of 54 29% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 39 of 69 56% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 51 of 87 58% 27 of 57 13 of 15 11 of 15 46 of 80 4 of 6 1 of 1
Ike Villanueva 16 of 54 29% 13 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 39 of 69 56% 17 of 42 13 of 15 9 of 12 39 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 14 of 48 29% 11 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 12 of 18 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 3 7 of 11 4 of 6 1 of 1
Ike Villanueva 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 11, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady leans with Chase Sherman due to his UFC experience and size advantage, noting that Ike Villanueva is moving up from light heavyweight and will be the smaller fighter. He acknowledges Villanueva's speed and power but believes Sherman can weather the early storm and take over in the second round, predicting a second-round knockout. However, he calls it a very low-level fight and is not highly confident.

Sherman wins by knockout in round 2
"I'm gonna go with Sherman second round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 12, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Chase Sherman

Daniel Levi leans with Chase Sherman, citing his size, UFC experience, and thunderous leg kicks. He notes that Villanueva is a former middleweight/light heavyweight and smaller, but admits Sherman's head movement is poor and a knockout from Villanueva wouldn't surprise him.

"I'll lean with Sherman for that reason but it's not gonna surprise me one bit if the newcomer comes out here and knocks him out either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman, citing his better chin and experience against tougher opponents, including a fight with Rashad Coulter. He notes that Ike Villanueva lost to Trevin Giles, a middleweight, in the first round, and questions his durability. He predicts Sherman will finish Villanueva in the second round via TKO once Villanueva gasses.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna go chase Sherman... by second round or first round TKO once Villanueva gets rid of his initial burst of juice."