Career Averages - Randa Markos
Career Averages - Marina Rodriguez
Randa Markos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 51 of 71 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 65 of 96 | 67% | 159 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 8:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 24 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:10 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 17 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 50 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:00 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 69 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 11 of 27 | 40% | 7 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Livinha Souza | 65 of 96 | 67% | 55 of 85 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 55 | 20 of 25 | 16 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Livinha Souza | 21 of 36 | 58% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 23 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Livinha Souza | 12 of 16 | 75% | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 6 of 16 | 37% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Livinha Souza | 32 of 44 | 72% | 30 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 27 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 |
Angelo sees this as a tough fight between two similar fighters. He notes that Souza likely has a striking advantage while Randa has the grappling edge, but neither is good off their back. He ultimately sides with Souza because he thinks she can be the bully and get on top, but he's not confident and won't bet on her at -300.
Big Brady leans toward Souza despite her poor performance against Amanda Lemos, citing Souza's takedown ability and Randa Markos's 52% takedown defense. He expects the fight to play out on the mat where Souza can control and win a decision. However, he admits low confidence due to both fighters' low level and recommends no bet on this fight.
Cody leans towards Randa Markos as an underdog. He notes that Souza has looked awful in the UFC, quitting in her last fight, while Markos has fought only top competition and never quits. Cody believes Markos's grinding style and durability will be too much for Souza, who seems to lack heart. He sees this as a dogger pass and takes the underdog.
Lock picks Markos based on volume and activity. He notes Souza has poor striking output and Markos will outwork her. He expects Markos to win by decision, as she is unlikely to finish. He acknowledges Markos' low fight IQ but thinks she can win.
Paul does not make a pick, asking for Cody's blessing before betting. He notes that Souza has burned him before and that Markos's style may not be favored by judges. Paul seems uncertain and does not commit.
The MMA Guru picks Livinha Souza, arguing that she is undervalued due to her looks. He highlights her tough competition and believes Randa Markos has lost motivation. He predicts Souza will win by unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 35 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 35 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Pinheiro | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Randa Markos | 29 of 53 | 54% | 22 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Pinheiro | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Randa Markos | 29 of 53 | 54% | 22 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 8 |
Big Brady picks Luana Pinheiro to win by decision, but expresses hesitation about betting on Contender Series fighters, especially in women's MMA. He likes Pinheiro's aggression, power, and ability to take the fight down, noting Markos's poor takedown defense. However, he acknowledges that Contender Series favorites often fail to cover the price tag. He ultimately picks Pinheiro but says he won't bet on it.
Cody thinks Pinheiro is a strong prospect with hands and a judo background, training at ATT with her boyfriend Matheus Nicolau. He notes that Randa Markos has lost three in a row and seems to be on a downswing, possibly thinking about retirement. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos in many areas and that -170 is a fair price. However, he has low confidence due to the unpredictability of women's MMA and the veteran vs. debutant dynamic.
Daniel Levi picks Luana Pinheiro to win, citing her finishing ability and jiu-jitsu credentials. He acknowledges the risk of a debut egg but believes Randa Markos is declining mentally and physically. Levi notes that Pinheiro's path to victory is takedowns and top control, as Markos has been dominated on the ground recently.
The host picks Randa Markos as an underdog, citing her experience and durability. He questions Pinheiro's cardio since all her wins are first-round finishes on the regional scene. He expects Markos to take the fight into deeper waters and grind out a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Markos has seen better days and is on a losing streak. He points out that Markos has never won back-to-back fights in the UFC and is getting older. He thinks Pinheiro is a natural finisher with good grappling and striking, and that she looks strong for 115 pounds. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos' telegraphing and suspect wrestling. He agrees that -170 is fair but has low confidence due to the level of competition.
The MMA Guru picks Luana Pinheiro over Randa Markos, expressing frustration with Markos' poor decision-making and lack of effort. He highlights Pinheiro's power and finishing ability, noting she has first-round finishes in her recent fights. He predicts Pinheiro will win by first-round finish, either by submission or KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 79 of 95 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 9:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kanako Murata | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 36 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | |
| 2 | Kanako Murata | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 | |
| 3 | Kanako Murata | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 23 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanako Murata | 29 of 61 | 47% | 12 of 36 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 13 | 19 of 50 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Randa Markos | 29 of 43 | 67% | 24 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 17 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kanako Murata | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 15 of 20 | 75% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 13 | |
| 2 | Kanako Murata | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 8 of 15 | 53% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Kanako Murata | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Randa Markos | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Murata due to her wrestling pedigree and top control, though he is wary of Markos' submission threat from guard. He notes Markos' poor fight IQ and takedown defense. He expects Murata to win a decision but is not betting due to the sketchy vibe.
Daniel slightly leans with Murata, noting her disciplined game plan, strength, forward pressure, and ability to mix in takedowns. He thinks she can edge a decision if she stays disciplined. He acknowledges Markos has shown mental lapses and inconsistency, but warns that Murata is not a lock and the fight could be close. He advises not going crazy at the betting window.
The MMA Guru picks Randa Markos, despite her 10-10 record, because she has fought much better competition than Kanako Murata. He notes that Murata went to a split decision against a girl with an 8-5 record and hasn't beaten anyone notable. He believes Markos will piece up Murata on the feet for three rounds and win a unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 5 | 1 | 1:45 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 5 | 1 | 1:45 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 9 of 13 | 69% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
| Randa Markos | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 9 of 13 | 69% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
| Randa Markos | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Randa Markos, citing Dern's poor wrestling (7% takedown accuracy) and striking. He believes the fight will stay on the feet where Markos is the better striker, and Markos has stated she will avoid Dern's strength. He expects a close decision win for Markos.
The host sees this as a 50/50 fight where the winner depends on who imposes their game. He thinks Dern's best path is to get the fight to the ground and use her elite jiu-jitsu for a submission, but he questions her ability to secure takedowns against Markos. He notes Markos has the striking advantage and could outpoint Dern if she keeps it standing. He picks Dern by submission but acknowledges the value is on Markos at +145.
The host picks Mackenzie Dern over Randa Markos, citing Dern's dominant performance against Hannah Cifers and her youth. He notes Markos's age (35) and many losses to top competition. He predicts a submission win in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 85 of 159 | 53% | 173 of 254 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 7:24 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 36 of 77 | 46% | 56 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 51 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 61 of 105 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 61 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:55 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 85 of 159 | 53% | 57 of 125 | 18 of 24 | 10 of 10 | 45 of 111 | 8 of 9 | 32 of 39 |
| Randa Markos | 36 of 77 | 46% | 22 of 58 | 3 of 7 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 74 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 22 of 41 | 53% | 14 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 13 |
| Randa Markos | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 31 of 74 | 41% | 18 of 56 | 8 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 69 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 23 of 51 | 45% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 22 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 32 of 44 | 72% | 25 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 26 |
| Randa Markos | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel is confident in Ribas, citing her size advantage, superior jiu-jitsu, and judo. He thinks she can take Markos down and submit her or win a dominant decision. He notes Markos is tough but Ribas is on a different talent level.
The host picks Amanda Ribas over Randa Markos. He notes that Markos is dangerous but will be too short in reach and length. Ribas is coming off a win over Mackenzie Dern and will use her reach advantage to jab Markos's face for three rounds. He also mentions Markos's age (34) as a factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 0 | 78 of 140 | 55% | 94 of 158 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:05 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 44 of 107 | 41% | 82 of 148 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 5:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 22 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 0 | 39 of 54 | 72% | 54 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:31 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 41 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 31 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 14 of 55 | 25% | 19 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 78 of 140 | 55% | 58 of 116 | 10 of 13 | 10 of 11 | 42 of 93 | 26 of 33 | 10 of 14 |
| Ashley Yoder | 44 of 107 | 41% | 30 of 84 | 11 of 16 | 3 of 7 | 24 of 80 | 5 of 10 | 15 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 8 of 10 | 80% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ashley Yoder | 11 of 16 | 68% | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 39 of 54 | 72% | 31 of 45 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 22 | 15 of 18 | 10 of 14 |
| Ashley Yoder | 19 of 36 | 52% | 15 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 11 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 31 of 76 | 40% | 23 of 65 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 64 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Ashley Yoder | 14 of 55 | 25% | 8 of 44 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 40 of 107 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 25 of 109 | 22% | 26 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 10 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 7 of 35 | 20% | 8 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 8 of 40 | 20% | 8 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 40 of 107 | 37% | 36 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 37 of 98 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 25 of 109 | 22% | 19 of 99 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 17 of 96 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 12 of 35 | 34% | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 10 of 34 | 29% | 8 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 7 of 35 | 20% | 5 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 18 of 41 | 43% | 15 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 8 of 40 | 20% | 6 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 |
| Angela Hill | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 |
| Angela Hill | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s time for a women’s strawweight bout between Randa Markos and Angela Hill. The official in charge of the action is Keith Peterson. No touch of gloves for this one. Hill with a kick to the body. Markos with a straight right and uses it to get inside and clinch up with Hill. But Hill reverses position and now has Markos up against the fence. Markos lands two knees and then an elbow off the break. She marches forward on Hill, who clinches up with her but Markos whips her to the ground with a body lock takedown. Markos is now working in side control. She moves over into mount and then takes the back of Hill. Markos is looking for the rear-naked choke while also landing punches to the head of Hill. She moves back into mount. Hill tries to buck her off but Markos gets her hooks in and takes the back of Hill.
She switches to an armbar and Hill is in massive trouble now. Hill is doing her best to defend but Markos has a minute to work here. Hill is doing a great job of defending but eventually succumbs to the submission as Markos stretches the arm back and Hill taps to the armbar
.
The Official Result
Randa Markos def. Angela Hill via Submission (Armbar) R1, 4:20
Marina Rodriguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 73 of 120 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 42 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 31 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 4 of 17 | 23% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 16 of 41 | 39% | 12 of 32 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 13 | 15% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 |
Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.
Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.
This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 33 of 99 | 33% | 65 of 134 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 55 of 104 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 4:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 20 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 24 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 12 of 37 | 32% | 26 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 11 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 33 of 99 | 33% | 28 of 89 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 3 | 28 of 92 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 30 of 73 | 41% | 19 of 56 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 16 of 37 | 43% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 12 of 37 | 32% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.
Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.
Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.
Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.
Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.
The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.
Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.
Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 89 of 180 | 49% | 124 of 220 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 82 of 228 | 35% | 94 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 49 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 42 of 86 | 48% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 107 | 32% | 35 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 31 of 85 | 36% | 32 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 89 of 180 | 49% | 35 of 110 | 14 of 18 | 40 of 52 | 79 of 165 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 82 of 228 | 35% | 70 of 207 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 77 of 220 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 14 of 23 | 60% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 42 of 86 | 48% | 21 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 16 | 35 of 75 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 35 of 107 | 32% | 34 of 104 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 104 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 71 | 46% | 12 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 31 of 85 | 36% | 27 of 75 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.
Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.
Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.
Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.
Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.
Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 70 of 102 | 68% | 90 of 130 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 16 of 37 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 51 of 75 | 68% | 67 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 13 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 70 of 102 | 68% | 47 of 70 | 22 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 53 of 73 | 5 of 6 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 13 of 32 | 40% | 7 of 23 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 51 of 75 | 68% | 38 of 56 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 45 of 62 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 10 of 20 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 6 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 19 of 27 | 70% | 9 of 14 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 6 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo trusts Marina slightly more to push the action and keep her boxing in Michelle's face. He notes Michelle has more dynamic striking and experience but is inconsistent. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and suggests betting over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez confidently, expecting a decision win. He notes Rodriguez is the better striker with power, while Waterson-Gomez has zero power and relies on volume. He thinks the fight will stay standing and Rodriguez will do more damage. He mentions Waterson-Gomez could try takedowns but doubts she will. He calls the rematch unnecessary.
Cody picks Marina Rodriguez by decision, expecting a similar outcome to their first fight. He notes Rodriguez's size, output, and ability to stuff takedowns, while Waterson has declined and struggles to implement her grappling. He sees no significant improvements from Waterson and believes Rodriguez will outwork her again.
Daniel is confident Rodriguez wins, citing her massive volume and reach advantage on the feet. He rewatched their first fight and saw Rodriguez dominate until getting taken down in round 4. He believes if Rodriguez avoids extended time on bottom, she will out-strike Waterson decisively. He notes Waterson's low output and age (37) as concerns, and thinks Rodriguez covers the -300 line.
Lucrative James is confident Rodriguez will win, calling Waterson washed and not good on the ground. He thinks Rodriguez will piece her up and sees value at -300, estimating her true probability at 85%. He also considers betting the under or Rodriguez by KO, but is wary of recent losses on women's unders.
The host picks Rodriguez at minus 300, expecting a repeat of their first fight where Rodriguez battered Waterson-Gomez on the feet. He notes Waterson-Gomez's underrated BJJ but poor wrestling to get the fight down, and that Rodriguez's takedown defense and clinch work (knees, elbows) will keep it standing. He acknowledges both are on losing streaks but sees Rodriguez as the younger, more powerful striker who wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Rodriguez, but won't bet at -300. He likes Rodriguez's over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, noting she landed 78 in the first fight. He thinks Waterson's takedown threat is minimal and Rodriguez will out-strike her again.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Marina Rodriguez, noting she already beat Michelle Waterson in their first fight, winning 4-1 on rounds. He criticizes Waterson's three-fight losing streak and questions the rematch. He defends Rodriguez's loss to Amanda Lemos as an early stoppage and praises her grappling awareness against Mackenzie Dern. He believes Rodriguez's striking and overall game are clearly superior.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 33 of 62 | 53% | 115 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 91 of 116 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 12:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 31 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 34 of 40 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 70 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 26 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 33 of 62 | 53% | 27 of 52 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 22 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 27 of 43 | 62% | 25 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 5 of 11 | 45% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 16 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 8 | |
| 3 | Virna Jandiroba | 21 of 42 | 50% | 19 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 13 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 12 of 20 | 60% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.
Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.
Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.
Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.
The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.
Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.
The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.
Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 19 of 52 | 36% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 8 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 29 of 53 | 54% | 16 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 9 of 29 | 31% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 18 | 61% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 19 | 52% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.
Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.
Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.
Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.
The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.
Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 72 of 200 | 36% | 79 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 56 of 132 | 42% | 66 of 143 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 25 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 107 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 72 of 200 | 36% | 46 of 166 | 18 of 19 | 8 of 15 | 59 of 182 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 56 of 132 | 42% | 37 of 105 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 18 | 48 of 121 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 18 of 48 | 37% | 9 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 21 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 45 | 31% | 9 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 107 | 37% | 28 of 93 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 99 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 18 of 44 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.
Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.
Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.
The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Yan Xiaonan, expecting a striking affair. He notes Yan's main weakness is grappling, but believes Rodriguez has improved her cardio and striking variety, using more kicks to the body and legs. He thinks Rodriguez is more powerful and tougher, predicting a 30-27 decision where she pieces Yan apart. He also expresses a hot take that Rodriguez will become champion.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 49 of 174 | 28% | 80 of 209 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 | 1 | 7:21 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 144 of 279 | 51% | 148 of 284 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 4:21 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 8 of 35 | 22% | 8 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 45 of 91 | 49% | 47 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 15 of 54 | 27% | 21 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 37 of 65 | 56% | 37 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 46 | 23% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 49 of 174 | 28% | 41 of 158 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 36 of 155 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 16 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 144 of 279 | 51% | 72 of 186 | 39 of 58 | 33 of 35 | 124 of 257 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 5 of 17 | 29% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 24 of 49 | 48% | 9 of 31 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 8 of 35 | 22% | 7 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 45 of 91 | 49% | 28 of 66 | 8 of 15 | 9 of 10 | 37 of 82 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Marina Rodriguez | 15 of 54 | 27% | 12 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 37 of 65 | 56% | 14 of 36 | 13 of 19 | 10 of 10 | 34 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 46 | 23% | 8 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 37 of 68 | 54% | 21 of 49 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 64 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez, calling her the more complete fighter with superior striking and takedown defense. He notes her wins over top competition and Dern's poor takedown accuracy. He has a money line bet on Rodriguez at plus 145. He thinks Dern's only path is submission, but Rodriguez can avoid the ground.
Big Brady, despite being a self-proclaimed Dern hater, picks her to win by submission. He notes that Dern only needs one takedown to finish the fight, and Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and ground game. He references Rodriguez being taken down by multiple opponents and her poor get-up game. Brady thinks Dern will eventually get the takedown and submit her, but he would not bet her as a favorite at these odds.
Cody leans toward Dern because he believes the fight will eventually hit the ground over five rounds, where Dern's BJJ is leaps and bounds better than Rodriguez's. He notes Rodriguez has a clear striking advantage and Dern's wrestling is not elite, but Dern has shown improvements and can capitalize on scrambles. He suggests live betting Dern after she loses the early rounds, and predicts a third or fourth round submission or a decision.
Daniel Levi acknowledges that Marina Rodriguez is a superior striker, comparing her to a young Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but he is concerned about her takedown defense. He notes that Mackenzie Dern's hands have improved under Jason Parillo and she has power, but her path to victory is getting the fight to the mat. He predicts Dern will secure a takedown and finish via submission, though he admits if Dern doesn't submit her early, the fight becomes uncertain.
Jacob is extremely confident in Mackenzie Dern, calling her the lock of the week. He believes her jiu-jitsu is unmatched and that if the fight goes to the ground, she will submit Rodriguez. He dismisses Rodriguez's striking improvements and plans to bet 20 units on Dern at minus 160. He thinks Dern's striking has improved enough to get the fight to the mat.
The host picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her elite BJJ and ability to secure a takedown against Marina Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down before (e.g., by Amanda Ribas) and that Dern's jiu-jitsu is superior. He believes Dern can remain safe on the feet long enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she will likely find a submission. He also mentions the low variance of grappling compared to striking, favoring the grappler. He predicts a second-round submission.
Paul is leaning toward Dern, acknowledging that Rodriguez has advantages on the feet but Dern's submission threat and improved striking make her dangerous. He notes Dern's wrestling is not great but she can create chaotic scrambles. He is hesitant because Dern has cost him money before, but he sees her path to victory via submission or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by unanimous decision as an underdog. He highlights her striking accuracy, power, and takedown defense (62%). He questions Dern's late start in sparring and believes Rodriguez's experience and reach advantage will be decisive. He advises betting on Rodriguez before odds change.
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