UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Anders · Sep 22, 2018 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Anders Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Augusto Sakai
4.6 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.83 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.23 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Chase Sherman
6.04 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
6.65 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.09 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
74.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Augusto Sakai - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 53 of 95 55% 107 of 173 1 of 2 50% 0 0 8:51
Don'Tale Mayes 0 29 of 62 46% 77 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 38 50% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Don'Tale Mayes 0 13 of 20 65% 29 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
2 Augusto Sakai 0 16 of 27 59% 46 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:52
Don'Tale Mayes 0 4 of 15 26% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
3 Augusto Sakai 0 18 of 30 60% 30 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Don'Tale Mayes 0 12 of 27 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 53 of 95 55% 27 of 65 18 of 22 8 of 8 21 of 49 30 of 42 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 29 of 62 46% 15 of 46 10 of 12 4 of 4 24 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 19 of 38 50% 10 of 28 4 of 5 5 of 5 5 of 14 14 of 24 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 13 of 20 65% 4 of 11 5 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 16 of 27 59% 6 of 16 7 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Augusto Sakai 18 of 30 60% 11 of 21 7 of 9 0 of 0 6 of 15 10 of 11 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 12 of 27 44% 9 of 22 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Connor picks Sakai, believing he can edge out a win by slowing the fight down with clinch work and using his durability. He notes that Mayes' inability to hit the same spot repeatedly makes it unlikely he'll knock Sakai out, and Sakai will do just enough work to pull out a decision. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and that Sakai's confidence may be shaken, but he trusts Sakai's meat-and-potatoes approach over Mayes' chaos.

Sakai opened +125, now -137. Mayes opened -145, now +112. Connor says he wouldn't bet on any props.
"I'll go with Sakai for this this to me feels like a fight that he can win it might be a fight he edges like yeah just barely guts out and you're like wow that didn't actually make me feel …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Zane picks Mayes despite his lack of structure, because Sakai's confidence has taken a hit after four straight finishes. He notes that Mayes is athletic, durable, and willing to try takedowns, and Sakai is not good on the ground. However, Zane admits he has no good reason to pick Mayes and calls it a coin flip, but he feels Sakai is not feeling himself lately.

Mayes via TKO was +200. Zane says he wouldn't bet on any props due to unpredictability.
"I don't have a good reason to pick maze but I just I'm just not feeling I don't think Spivak is feeling himself lately okay so sorry so I guess I'll take maze even though like he's such a mess"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
TKO (punches) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 8 of 23 34% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 33 of 49 67% 86 of 119 6 of 8 75% 1 0 6:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 10 of 13 76% 36 of 43 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:09
2 Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 23 of 36 63% 50 of 76 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 8 of 23 34% 1 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 17 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 0 24 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 7 of 11 63% 1 of 5 5 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Serghei Spivac 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 23 of 36 63% 23 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, expecting him to use a cage-pressing and takedown-heavy game plan similar to his win over Tai Tuivasa. He notes Sakai's takedown defense is solid but has been exploited by Alistair Overeem, and believes Spivac can get takedowns and potentially stop Sakai, who has no movement off his back. He plans to bet on Spivac's moneyline.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line bet on sergey speak back in this fight
"I see spivak getting takedowns and will win with a potential stoppage because sakai off his back has no movement and he just takes whatever you give him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Serghei Spivac, citing his strong wrestling and ground game. He notes that Augusto Sakai is on a three-fight losing streak, all by finish, and has poor defense off his back. Spivac has 60% takedown accuracy and dangerous ground-and-pound and submissions. Brady predicts a second-round finish by TKO or submission, though he acknowledges Sakai's power and the possibility of a knockout if Spivac chooses to strike.

second round finish prediction (TKO or submission)
"i'll go speed back to win and buy like a second round like a second round tk or submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, citing his improvements and youth. He notes that Spivac will likely take Sakai down and maul him, as Sakai has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Cody mentions that Sakai has become gun-shy since the Overeem loss and doesn't let his hands go. He believes Spivac's grappling will be the difference.

Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"My gut instinct is Spivac is going to eventually take him down... put a mauling on him... gotta go with Sergey Spivak."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi picks Spivac but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Sakai has been knocked out in his last two fights but Spivac lacks one-punch power, so Sakai could be competitive if his chin holds. Levi thinks Spivac's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, but he's not confident enough to bet the -250 line.

"I see it as a dog or pass situation I guess pure pick I'll go Spivac just because the momentum's on his side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a dog, noting that Sakai has power and a striking advantage. He mentions that Spivac has been knocked out before and that Sakai can crack. Paul is waiting for weigh-ins to see if Sakai has improved his conditioning. He sees a path for Sakai by knockout, especially if he can keep the fight standing.

Sakai by knockout (looking for +500 or better); Sakai inside the distance at +350
"Sakai will be my pick... Sakai by knockout... I see Sakai inside the distance at plus 350."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac by decision 29-28. He calls Augusto Sakai a 'fat slob' who is too timid and has been KO'd three times in a row. He notes Spivac's deceptive size, good grappling (flipping Greg Hardy), and ability to adjust. He expects Sakai to make it difficult but Spivac to win a close fight.

"i'm going to be going with sergey spivak... i think he's a great fighter... i feel as though sergey spivak is going to get this one done by decision at 29 28"
LOSS vs Tai Tuivasa
KO (punches) R2 0:26 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 0 21 of 29 72% 40 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Augusto Sakai 1 34 of 52 65% 44 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 26 73% 38 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Augusto Sakai 0 24 of 37 64% 34 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:57
2 Tai Tuivasa 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 1 10 of 15 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 21 of 29 72% 6 of 12 12 of 13 3 of 4 5 of 12 16 of 17 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 34 of 52 65% 26 of 43 8 of 8 0 of 1 13 of 27 21 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 19 of 26 73% 4 of 9 12 of 13 3 of 4 3 of 9 16 of 17 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 24 of 37 64% 16 of 28 8 of 8 0 of 1 5 of 16 19 of 21 0 of 0
2 Tai Tuivasa 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 10 of 15 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 11 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa

Round 1
Meat is on the menu for this lone rumble on the card above 185 pounds, when Sakai (15-3-1, 4-2 UFC) and Tuivasa (12-3, 6-3 UFC) combine for 528 ready pounds inside the Octagon. Both sport 11 wins by knockout hoping to land another as rare members of the 30-and-under heavyweight club. The third man in the cage is referee Mark Smith, who hopes not to get blonked by an errant blow when these two come out swinging. They do clap hands to get things going, and the fight begins with Tuivasa taking the center of the cage plodding forward to walk Sakai down. Neither throw a strike of note for the first 55 seconds, until Sakai lands a single leg kick to counter a jab from the Aussie. Sakai goes back to circling along the outside, and he pops Tuivasa with another low leg kick. Tuivasa eats another as he continues to walk forward without engaging, until he looses a short combination that leads to him clinch up with his opponent. A stalemate ensues as they cling on one another, and Sakai is warned for smacking Tuivasa in the back of the head with a short shot. Tuivasa gets off a few punches to the midsection, and Sakai takes that personally as he turns him around and they both throw leather. Neither land flush, and Tuivasa returns to his constant forward motion. Tuivasa loads up with a huge uppercut, and he wings punches until Sakai ties him up. The Brazilian defends with his back against the wall with punches on Tuivasa’s ear, and he thinks to set up a high standing guillotine but there is nothing there. Sakai winds up with a knee right to the midsection, and he starts ripping them to the body to decent effect. The Aussie complains one might have gone low, and when Smith does not intervene, Tuivasa takes things into his own hands as he elbows Sakai hard on the chin. Tuivasa lets loose with a short barrage of blows, and Sakai slows him down with a few knees to the belly before the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa

Round 2
The fighters meet in the center of the cage and throw, and it is Tuivasa who lands flush first and in volume. Sakai is hurt after taking a left hook square on the chin, and he falls back to the wall while trying to blink it out.
“Bam Bam” does not let him off the hook, blasting him with huge punches as Sakai is barely on his feet. The Aussie lets it rip as he chains punches together, and one lands right on the button to completely disable Sakai. Sakai falls to the ground, consciousness completely stripped away, and his leg bends back in a scary way reminiscent of Mirko Filipovic against Gabriel Gonzaga.
The walk-off knockout successful, Tuivasa jumps on top of the cage and signals for someone to throw him a shoe and a can of beer. In what has become his trademark, Tuivasa completely wins the crowd over by pouring the full beer in the shoe and pounding it after a dramatic victory. That’s four in a row for the boisterous Aussie, who could not be happier with his performance.

The Official Result
Tai Tuivasa def. Augusto Sakai R2 0:26 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady edges with Augusto Sakai in a close fight. He notes that both fighters have similar striking and grappling numbers, but Sakai has better cardio and has gone to decisions against tough opponents. Tuivasa tends to fade after the first round, while Sakai is more comfortable in later rounds. Brady expects Sakai to win a 29-28 decision, but acknowledges Tuivasa's power and early-round finishing ability make this a pick'em.

"i'm gonna take sakai to win a 29-28 decision but this fight is so dang close"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Levi picks Tai Tuivasa, noting that Sakai's chin has been checked in his last two losses and his confidence may be shaken. He believes Tuivasa's brawling style and power could get Sakai out early. Levi acknowledges that an extended fight favors Sakai's methodical approach, but he thinks Tuivasa will have big moments that sway the judges. He also mentions Tuivasa's improved training at AKA and lifestyle changes. Levi is not sure it will be a knockout but expects Tuivasa to win.

"give me tuivasa um not sure it's going to be a knockout but i think he can have some big moments in the fight that sway it towards his favor"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round KO. He highlights Tuivasa's improved cardio and calf kicks, which he believes will wear down Sakai. He criticizes Sakai's chin and notes he is coming off a KO loss. He predicts Tuivasa will land a counter right hand or left hook to finish.

first-round KO via calf kicks and counter punches
"i'm going to go the first round ko for tuivasa chopping at the calf early i love those calf kicks"
TKO (punches) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady thinks the line should be flipped and Sakai should be favored. He notes Rozenstruik has the worst striking defense in the heavyweight division (39%) and a negative strike differential, while Sakai has higher volume and a positive differential. He believes Sakai has a good chin and can outwork Rozenstruik over five rounds, possibly getting a late finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power but thinks Sakai is the better fighter.

"i'm gonna go with sakai i think sakai does get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Cody leans toward Sakai, noting Rozenstruik's tendency to be tentative and take too long to get going. He points out that Sakai has fast hands and good movement, and if he can improve his cardio from the Overeem fight, he could win early rounds. Cody also mentions that Rozenstruik's power is a threat but Sakai is durable. He suggests the over on rounds and that Sakai could win a decision if he doesn't fade.

over 1.5 rounds, fight starts round three -140
"i'm hoping sakai could potentially build on that i just i can't get behind rosenstruck not with my dollar"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel favors Sakai because he believes Sakai will be the one moving forward with more volume and a more well-rounded game. He notes that Sakai has a methodical Muay Thai style and good output, while Rozenstruik relies heavily on counter-fighting and one-punch knockout power. Daniel points out that Rozenstruik has been down on scorecards before (e.g., the Overeem fight) and that Sakai is the better round winner. He also mentions that Sakai has a good chin and can take a shot, making it hard for Rozenstruik to land a clean counter. Daniel predicts Sakai will win a decision or possibly by outworking Rozenstruik over five rounds.

"i gotta favor sakai here despite him being the underdog it's just really about don't get clipped with one big shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional knockout artist who is tentative against longer fighters. Sakai has better volume and can use clinch work and takedowns to neutralize Rozenstruik's power. Sakai will win a decision.

Sakai by decision +380, over 3.5 rounds +140
"I got sakai via decision plus 390"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a slight underdog, citing Sakai's fast hands and movement for a heavyweight, and his volume punching. He notes Sakai's cardio failed against Overeem but hopes he has improved. Paul is hesitant because Rozenstruik has power and five-round experience, but he can't get behind Rozenstruik's low volume and slow starts. He suggests the fight starts round three as a prop.

fight starts round three -140, over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds
"gun to my head would be sakai dogger pass dogger pass close fight 50 50. i'm getting slight dog money on sakai"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The Guru picks Augusto Sakai, expressing frustration with Rozenstruik's hesitancy and lack of urgency, especially in the Cyril Gane fight. He notes Sakai's good chin, pressure, and ability to mix kicks. He compares their fights against Overeem: Sakai was winning early before gassing, while Rozenstruik was dominated. He predicts Sakai will walk Rozenstruik down, pressure him against the cage, and get a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

TKO round 2, ground and pound
"i've got augusto sakai getting it done not to mention he's got pretty good striking defense on the feet as well"
TKO (elbows and punches) R5 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 0 92 of 114 80% 106 of 131 3 of 3 100% 0 0 5:29
Augusto Sakai 0 99 of 173 57% 120 of 196 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 11 of 18 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 22 of 36 61% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Alistair Overeem 0 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Augusto Sakai 0 24 of 40 60% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Alistair Overeem 0 23 of 27 85% 26 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Augusto Sakai 0 34 of 54 62% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
4 Alistair Overeem 0 40 of 48 83% 49 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
5 Alistair Overeem 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Augusto Sakai 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 92 of 114 80% 53 of 73 30 of 31 9 of 10 28 of 43 16 of 16 48 of 55
Augusto Sakai 99 of 173 57% 66 of 130 25 of 34 8 of 9 62 of 127 35 of 43 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 11 of 18 61% 2 of 9 6 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 22 of 36 61% 13 of 23 8 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Alistair Overeem 13 of 16 81% 5 of 7 7 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 7 9 of 9 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 24 of 40 60% 12 of 24 11 of 15 1 of 1 10 of 22 14 of 18 0 of 0
3 Alistair Overeem 23 of 27 85% 10 of 14 9 of 9 4 of 4 11 of 14 2 of 2 10 of 11
Augusto Sakai 34 of 54 62% 27 of 47 4 of 4 3 of 3 21 of 37 11 of 14 2 of 3
4 Alistair Overeem 40 of 48 83% 31 of 38 8 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 9 0 of 0 33 of 39
Augusto Sakai 19 of 43 44% 14 of 36 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Alistair Overeem 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 5
Augusto Sakai 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Sakai mainly as a fade on Overeem's chin, noting Overeem has 13 knockout losses. He acknowledges Sakai is not a huge power puncher but believes he can catch Overeem. He mentions Overeem might have better cardio and could take Sakai down, but Sakai has 83% takedown defense. He suggests betting Sakai inside the distance.

Sakai inside the distance
"i'm gonna go with sakai it's basically a fade on overeem's chin which is not an awful look at this point in his career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel Levi picks Augusto Sakai to upset Alistair Overeem. He notes Sakai's underrated chin, having taken full KO blows from Arlovski without being hurt, and his methodical Muay Thai striking. Levi is concerned about Overeem's chin and tendency to admire his work, and believes Sakai will eventually catch Overeem, predicting a third-round knockout. He also mentions Sakai's competitive running background as a plus for cardio.

Sakai by KO in round 3
"i feel like sakai's got a very underrated chin man i haven't really seen him you know stumble get hurt drive none of that man so ... i feel like he's gonna come out here and knock alistair out i'ma …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The host picks Overeem to win by third or fourth round TKO. He believes Overeem is better everywhere, with improved grappling and cardio since joining Team Elevation. He expects Overeem to wear on Sakai against the cage, take him down, and pound him out. He notes Overeem's chin is a concern but thinks he can survive Sakai's early power.

"i will take over him to win this fight probably by third or fourth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The MMA Guru picks Alistair Overeem, citing Sakai's lack of impressive wins and a controversial split decision over Andrei Arlovski that he considers a robbery. He believes Overeem's experience and ability to survive early storms will be key, and predicts a second or third round TKO via ground and pound. He notes Overeem's unappealing ground and pound style but expects it to be effective.

second or third round ground and pound tko
"i think overeem is actually gonna get a big ko here um maybe not a ko actually yeah no ko i think he takes down augusto sakai after rocking him gets the submission or gets a tko via crown and …"
WIN vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 66 of 125 52% 71 of 130 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:08
Blagoy Ivanov 0 78 of 161 48% 89 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 15 of 27 55% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 38 31% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Augusto Sakai 0 30 of 49 61% 31 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Blagoy Ivanov 0 34 of 61 55% 39 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Augusto Sakai 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 32 of 62 51% 34 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 66 of 125 52% 47 of 105 18 of 19 1 of 1 52 of 107 12 of 15 2 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 78 of 161 48% 35 of 105 28 of 38 15 of 18 62 of 144 14 of 15 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 15 of 27 55% 9 of 21 6 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 38 31% 3 of 24 4 of 8 5 of 6 10 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 30 of 49 61% 20 of 39 9 of 9 1 of 1 24 of 39 4 of 7 2 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 34 of 61 55% 18 of 40 9 of 13 7 of 8 23 of 50 9 of 9 2 of 2
3 Augusto Sakai 21 of 49 42% 18 of 45 3 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 32 of 62 51% 14 of 41 15 of 17 3 of 4 29 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Augusto Sakai to win a very close decision. He thinks Sakai will land more volume and that Ivanov's grappling game plan is unlikely to materialize since Ivanov hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He notes that both fighters have great chins and have never been finished, so he expects a boring heavyweight fight that goes to the judges. He admits it's a close fight and wouldn't be surprised if Ivanov gets the decision.

"I'm going to side with Sakai to win by a very very close decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel picks Sakai, citing his improvements in diet and conditioning, his muay thai skills, and his ability to pressure and outwork Ivanov. He notes that Ivanov is one-dimensional, only countering with left hands, and that Sakai's volume and durability will be key. He believes Sakai can either knock out Ivanov or win a decision.

"i think sakai is the younger man the taller man the guy with the longer reach the guy that throws more volume the more durable guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The MMA Guru picks Augusto Sakai to win by first-round TKO. He compares Sakai to Derrick Lewis but with better technique and more fight IQ. He predicts Sakai will push Ivanov against the cage and land knees and elbows in the clinch for a finish.

Sakai by TKO in round 1
"August osika is gonna push block away up against a cage blast knees to the body blast elbows in the clinch getting the finish in the first round"
WIN vs Marcin Tybura
KO (punches) R1 0:59 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcin Tybura 1 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcin Tybura 1 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 6 of 7 85% 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 6 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 15 of 27 55% 13 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 7 of 7 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 6 of 7 85% 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 6 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 15 of 27 55% 13 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 7 of 7 2 of 2
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 75 of 175 42% 82 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Andrei Arlovski 0 42 of 132 31% 51 of 141 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 47 40% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Andrei Arlovski 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
2 Augusto Sakai 0 25 of 70 35% 26 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 17 of 47 36% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Augusto Sakai 0 31 of 58 53% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Andrei Arlovski 0 16 of 53 30% 19 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 75 of 175 42% 31 of 126 29 of 31 15 of 18 65 of 164 10 of 11 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 42 of 132 31% 26 of 108 8 of 12 8 of 12 30 of 113 12 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 19 of 47 40% 11 of 37 4 of 6 4 of 4 16 of 44 3 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 9 of 32 28% 5 of 25 2 of 3 2 of 4 7 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 25 of 70 35% 8 of 50 13 of 13 4 of 7 22 of 67 3 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 17 of 47 36% 12 of 39 1 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Augusto Sakai 31 of 58 53% 12 of 39 12 of 12 7 of 7 27 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 16 of 53 30% 9 of 44 5 of 5 2 of 4 7 of 38 9 of 15 0 of 0
Chase Sherman - Fight History
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 0 70 of 165 42% 85 of 191 1 of 10 10% 0 0 2:35
Chase Sherman 0 54 of 158 34% 64 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 19 of 43 44% 34 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:41
Chase Sherman 0 11 of 39 28% 17 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karl Williams 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Chase Sherman 0 13 of 56 23% 15 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karl Williams 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:31
Chase Sherman 0 30 of 63 47% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 70 of 165 42% 53 of 147 6 of 6 11 of 12 65 of 159 2 of 3 3 of 3
Chase Sherman 54 of 158 34% 26 of 124 10 of 15 18 of 19 46 of 148 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 19 of 43 44% 14 of 38 2 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 38 2 of 2 3 of 3
Chase Sherman 11 of 39 28% 6 of 32 0 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Karl Williams 23 of 63 36% 17 of 56 2 of 2 4 of 5 23 of 62 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 13 of 56 23% 5 of 47 1 of 2 7 of 7 13 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karl Williams 28 of 59 47% 22 of 53 2 of 2 4 of 4 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 30 of 63 47% 15 of 45 9 of 11 6 of 7 23 of 56 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Angelo is very confident in Karl Williams, calling him a powerful striker with solid wrestling. He notes Chase Sherman is hittable with no head movement and doesn't have one-punch knockout power. He says Williams should dominate bell to bell and is a safe parlay piece. He urges to smash the line even at -400.

Safe parlay piece
"you need to smash this line you need to smash it it's already not great at minus 400 but Carl Williams should dominate this Bell to Bell"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady is very confident in Williams, calling this a tailor-made matchup. He notes Sherman has terrible takedown defense and one of the worst ground games in the UFC, citing his losses to Romanov and Collier. Williams has good wrestling, as shown in his Contender Series win over Jimmy Lawson. Brady predicts Williams will take Sherman down, pound him out, and get a finish inside the distance. He says if Williams doesn't finish Sherman here, he never will.

inside the distance (submission or TKO)
"I think if Carl Williams does not finished Chase Sherman he will never finish anybody and the rest of his career because this is like a tailor-made matchup for Carl Williams"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Cody picks Williams confidently, citing Sherman's poor takedown defense and tendency to gas. He notes that Williams will take Sherman down and control him, and that Sherman's punching power is overrated. He expects Williams to win by decision or late stoppage, and likes the over 3 takedowns prop for Williams.

over 3 takedowns for Williams on PrizePicks
"I gotta go with Williams I mean here's the thing about Chase too though is that like he's not exactly like a power puncher"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Williams is much faster and a rare heavyweight with good wrestling. He notes that Sherman's style requires a brawl, but Williams can avoid that by taking him down. Connor feels bad for Sherman, who seems to dislike fighting, and expects Williams to win easily.

"I just expect that line to get wider. Frankly. It honestly should."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Daniel Levi picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that while Williams may have cardio concerns, Sherman is not a cardio machine either. Levi expects Williams to implement his game plan and break Sherman late, securing his second UFC win. He also mentions calling Williams' amateur fights and being impressed by his journey.

"I think ultimately Carl Williams can be able to implement that takedown game break Sherman late come out here and get a second UFC win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Sherman has a gut feeling pick; Williams has cardio issues and leaves openings. Sherman can survive the early onslaught, work back to his feet, and land big punches for a knockout. Williams slows down and Sherman has the experience to capitalize. Low confidence but Sherman by knockout is the call.

"I'm gonna go chase Sherman by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul picks Sherman as a value underdog due to heavyweight volatility, but is hesitant. He notes Sherman's puncher's chance and the fact that Williams is not a real heavyweight. He mentions a previous Shoei bet on Williams and is considering waiting for better odds. He acknowledges Williams' grappling advantage but is not confident.

Shoei bet (3-1) on Williams if accepted
"I'm gonna say heavyweight volatility for the purpose of this show I'm picking Chase Sherman but I'm a little bit more hesitant a little bit less gung-ho than last time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karl Williams

The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams, noting his wrestling advantage and Sherman's tendency to lose by being taken down. He believes Williams will take Sherman down and beat him up on the ground, as Sherman has a lot of miles on him.

"I'm gonna go if Carl Williams here over Chase Sherman... I think that Carl Williams is going to be able to take down Chase Sherman and even do okay on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Zane is confident in Karl Williams, citing his speed advantage and wrestling ability as clear edges over Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman lacks defense and enjoyment in fighting, and that Williams can take him down at will. Zane expects Williams to dominate, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound.

"Williams though, doesn't even have to have that fight with him. No, no, he doesn't. He's just going to take him down."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 66 of 177 37% 73 of 187 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Chase Sherman 0 147 of 278 52% 149 of 282 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 18 of 50 36% 23 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Chase Sherman 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 21 of 48 43% 22 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Chase Sherman 0 71 of 121 58% 73 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 79 34% 28 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chase Sherman 0 47 of 86 54% 47 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 177 37% 25 of 130 16 of 19 25 of 28 66 of 174 0 of 3 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 147 of 278 52% 124 of 247 17 of 25 6 of 6 142 of 271 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 18 of 50 36% 6 of 36 4 of 5 8 of 9 18 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 29 of 71 40% 19 of 60 6 of 7 4 of 4 27 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 21 of 48 43% 8 of 34 6 of 7 7 of 7 21 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 71 of 121 58% 66 of 113 5 of 8 0 of 0 68 of 116 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 79 34% 11 of 60 6 of 7 10 of 12 27 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 47 of 86 54% 39 of 74 6 of 10 2 of 2 47 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Chase Sherman
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-210), Sherman (+180)

Round 1
The year is 2022, and because of unfortunate circumstances, Sherman (16-10, 4-9 UFC), who has won four times in 13 walks to the Octagon thus far, is serving in a UFC card’s co-main event. He is on a one-fight win streak, as he put Jared Vanderaa away in July to break a four-fight skid. “The Vanilla Gorilla” will square off against an unbeaten former baseball player in Cortes-Acosta (8-0, 1-0 UFC), who also beat Vanderaa a few weeks ago. Referee Jacob Montalvo draws the charge for a fight that could end in an instant, but he does appreciate that the two are in good spirits as they touch ‘em up before colliding. The big men aim jabs and single punches at one another to measure their range. Sherman strikes first with a powerful strike, sinking in a calf kick on the inside of the leg and the another on the outside. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with a jab, and Sherman smashes his shin on the calf as “Salsa Boy” does a little impromptu dance to recover. Sherman puts his jab in his foe’s face, and Cortes-Acosta responds in kind. Sherman mixes things up with his low kicks, and he plants his leg on the midsection as well. Cortes-Acosta charges with a flurry, and Sherman slides out of the way of the worst of it and sinks in another low kick. Cortes-Acosta rifles a few jabs and a right hand down the pipe, and Sherman takes it on the chin. The big men kick at the same time, and they both take an odd step back before coming back to trade hands. Sherman sticks and moves as Cortes-Acosta rushes forward in a straight line, but he does not avoid the chopping kick at the end of the salvo. Sherman backs the undefeated fighter up, but he does not walk face-first into a big overhand right. Cortes-Acosta loads up on power punches, and Sherman keeps his composure and trashes the lead leg of his opponent with a brutal kick. Cortes-Acosta reaches down and grabs it, where he uses it to bully Sherman into the wall in hopes of dragging him down. Sherman escapes and turns the tables to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta plays the proverbial game of putting one hand down on the mat to prevent knee strikes to the head. Cortes-Acosta explodes out with a jab and an uppercut, but Sherman takes the wind out of his sails by throwing him down on the floor and landing in side control. Before anything can come of it, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sherman

Round 2
The second round opens with several stiff jabs from the ex-baseball player, and he walks through a low kick to continue jabbing Sherman up. Sherman’s face begins to turn red as he absorbs repeated jabs, and he backs off when Cortes-Acosta turns up the offense and attacks. “Salsa Boy” blitzes Sherman with a long series of punches, knocking Sherman’s head around and hurting him badly. Sherman survives by clinching up and hanging on to clear his head, doing so long enough to shake it out before Cortes-Acosta pushes him away. When separated, Cortes-Acosta unloads again with a string of punches, and Sherman takes them all and fires back to rock Cortes-Acosta. The undefeated fighter bounces off the wall and connects with a right hand that stuns Sherman, but Sherman’s chin holds together after the ferocious blow. Cortes-Acosta rails Sherman with heavy punches, and he shrugs off a leg kick and stops a takedown that is aimed at him. Cortes-Acosta pops out several jabs to fluster Sherman, and he checks a low kick and does a showboating dance. Cortes-Acosta surges into action, battering Sherman with several fierce punches. Cortes-Acosta catches a low kick and responds with a body kick, but Sherman protests the foot hit him in the groin. Montalvo tell them to play on, and Cortes-Acosta obliges by swarming his man with punches. Cortes-Acosta unleashes a hellacious salvo of uppercuts, standing hammerfists, flailing fists and other ridiculous punches in hopes of getting Sherman out of there, but Sherman makes it through them all. Cortes-Acosta appears to have completely spent his gas tank searching for that finish, as he practically puts his hands on his hips from fatigue. The round concludes with the two clinched up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
The heavyweights reach the last round, and both men are feeling it. Sherman appears the fresher man of the two, as Cortes-Acosta is slowed and keeps his hands low. The volume of the two fighters has diminished greatly, relegated to bursts of one man and then the other. Cortes-Acosta checks a low kick and takes a front kick to the body, and Sherman kicks him in the side. This third kick prompts Cortes-Acosta into action, as he races forward with a booming right hand. Sherman is barely on his feet, and Cortes-Acosta pummels him with a few more fastballs that Sherman incredibly takes. The two are sucking wind, and Sherman gathers himself and walks Cortes-Acosta down and connects with a few punches and a knee up the middle. They trade punches, with defense an afterthought as exhaustion overcomes both men. Cortes-Acosta works the body and head, and starts playing around with his hands as he does not appear concerned with Sherman’s power. Sherman answers this with a few quick punches and a low kick, and a second makes Cortes-Acosta wag his finger at him. Cortes-Acosta ducks down with a right hand up top, and he is so spent that he can barely make a fist. As a result, Cortes-Acosta slaps Sherman a few times with an open hand, and Sherman jumps forward with heavy punches. Cortes-Acosta flails and swings with little mustard on his shots, and he still catches Sherman coming at him with a short right hand. Try as he might, the unbeaten fighter cannot put Sherman out of there, but he backs away and keeps throwing punches and kicks right to the final horn. Sherman is tough, doing the same, and walking through anything coming his way, and this heavyweight slobberknocker has surprisingly gone the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Chase Sherman via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
TKO (punches) R3 3:10 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 0 109 of 266 40% 109 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 137 of 235 58% 137 of 235 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 29 of 92 31% 29 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 46 of 70 65% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 0 44 of 102 43% 44 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chase Sherman 0 36 of 72 50% 36 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 51 of 84 60% 51 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 109 of 266 40% 76 of 224 18 of 25 15 of 17 108 of 265 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 137 of 235 58% 86 of 175 32 of 39 19 of 21 134 of 231 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 29 of 92 31% 15 of 75 6 of 9 8 of 8 29 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 46 of 70 65% 21 of 43 17 of 19 8 of 8 46 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 44 of 102 43% 34 of 87 6 of 9 4 of 6 44 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 40 of 81 49% 26 of 62 7 of 12 7 of 7 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chase Sherman 36 of 72 50% 27 of 62 6 of 7 3 of 3 35 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 51 of 84 60% 39 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 6 48 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

"Jared bandera is the pick... this should be a pick and fight the odds are heavily favoring jared van dara I think this is closer to even."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

first round ground and pound TKO
"jared bandera first round grounded pound victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

Mentions Vanderaa over 51.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
"vandarin not going to take him down early i bet what he needs to do is weather the early storm and just continuously put on pressure continuously come forward wear on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

"Sherman vanderaa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

"another spot i think is dog or pass but like i i don't think i can build up the courage after coming off of like such a horrible week last week to bet uh chase sherman at plus 175 but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.

TKO or submission in the second round
"Jared Vanderaa is the lock."
Submission (americana) R1 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.

parlay piece; was -2500 favorite initially
"alexander romanov is absolutely 100 gonna be the win here and if you can get him at odds that are not minus 2500 throw him in a parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.

first round finish, submission or TKO
"i would be shocked if this left the first round i think romanov cruises here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.

Romanov inside the distance, Romanov first round (mentioned as -450 on his parlay)
"alexander romanov first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.

"i think romano's gonna dominate him and destroy him so yeah i get people are taken aback ... the odds suck so just sit back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.

Romanov inside the distance -650, Romanov round 1 -180
"romanov romanov easy money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.

Romanov inside the distance (mentioned as -550 or -700), Romanov TKO (personal pick)
"romanov should smash a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.

Romanov by first-round TKO (ground and pound)
"i do believe that alexander romanov is gonna go out there as i said before and get a first round submission on chase sherman... i think i'm actually going to lean more in the favor of a ground and pound …"
LOSS vs Jake Collier
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:26 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Collier 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Chase Sherman 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Collier 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Chase Sherman 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Collier 20 of 49 40% 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 1 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 13
Chase Sherman 10 of 17 58% 8 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Collier 20 of 49 40% 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 1 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 13
Chase Sherman 10 of 17 58% 8 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Angelo picks Sherman in a close fight, citing his better athleticism and pace. He notes both are similar boxers but Sherman has better volume and durability, while Collier may fade. He expects a striking war going to decision and won't bet on it.

No stoppage expected; fight goes to decision.
"i like chase to keep a pace and take a decision here but this is another fight that's super close"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady notes Jake Collier throws high volume but has no power, while Chase Sherman hits hard and has a 93% knockout rate. He thinks Sherman's durability and power will be the difference, predicting a knockout. However, he admits neither fighter is reliable and that Collier could win a decision if he survives. He picks Sherman by knockout but is not confident.

Sherman by knockout
"i'll take sherman by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Cody picks Collier, agreeing with Paul's analysis. He notes Sherman's cardio issues and Collier's volume striking. He expects Collier to win by decision or late TKO. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced, indicating a likely decision.

"i'll lean towards collier"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, citing his higher work rate and slightly better technique. He warns about Chase Sherman's leg kicks and durability but notes Sherman's cardio drops off in later rounds, which has been a consistent issue even before his USADA suspension. Levi believes Collier can capitalize on Sherman's fatigue and land effective strikes. He also mentions that Collier looked good against Valente and that Sherman has shown a tendency to shy away in tough fights.

"I am also gonna go with jay collier i think that he's got the higher work rate despite what the numbers say"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jake Collier

The host favors Jake Collier due to his high output and movement, similar to Parker Porter who beat Sherman. He notes Sherman's power is a threat early, but Collier's volume and cardio should take over as the fight progresses. He expects Collier to win a decision, as he doesn't see Collier finishing Sherman. The host is confident in Collier's ability to avoid Sherman's power and accumulate strikes.

Decision bet recommended as sharper than moneyline.
"i'm going to be going jay collier and i'll be taking him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Paul picks Collier, citing Sherman's pattern of gassing after the first round. He notes Collier's high volume and durability, and expects him to outwork Sherman in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests betting Collier live after round 1 as a hedge. He also mentions Collier by decision at +150 as a prop.

Collier by decision at +150; live bet Collier after round 1
"this one screams the exact same thing so i got jake caller and beyond that i think there's an opportunity to bet him after the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jake Collier

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Jake Collier, despite acknowledging that most people are picking Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman has poor head movement and was easily beaten by Arlovski and Parker Porter. Collier, though he ballooned up from middleweight, showed some skill against Carlos Felipe and has a reach advantage. He believes Collier's technical advantages from being a former middleweight will carry him to a close split decision win in a back-and-forth fight.

"i'm leaning jake collier as dumb as it sounds i know the majority of people are picking chase sherman"
LOSS vs Parker Porter
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 149 of 278 53% 159 of 294 1 of 8 12% 0 0 2:19
Chase Sherman 0 117 of 249 46% 121 of 253 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 21 of 56 37% 30 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Chase Sherman 0 29 of 59 49% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Parker Porter 0 57 of 105 54% 58 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Chase Sherman 0 51 of 102 50% 52 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Parker Porter 0 71 of 117 60% 71 of 118 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Chase Sherman 0 37 of 88 42% 39 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 149 of 278 53% 116 of 243 17 of 17 16 of 18 141 of 270 7 of 7 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 117 of 249 46% 69 of 199 15 of 17 33 of 33 115 of 247 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 21 of 56 37% 14 of 47 1 of 1 6 of 8 19 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 29 of 59 49% 20 of 50 1 of 1 8 of 8 29 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 57 of 105 54% 48 of 96 6 of 6 3 of 3 55 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 51 of 102 50% 27 of 77 11 of 12 13 of 13 50 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Parker Porter 71 of 117 60% 54 of 100 10 of 10 7 of 7 67 of 113 4 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 37 of 88 42% 22 of 72 3 of 4 12 of 12 36 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady picks Chase Sherman confidently, citing his better competition, toughness, and power. He notes Porter is very hittable and has been finished in all his losses. Sherman has a 93% finish rate, all by knockout. He predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"i like chase sherman here quite a bit i don't really think parker porter is ufc caliber"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Cody picks Sherman, citing his athleticism, leg kicks, and volume. He notes Sherman's improved game since his first UFC stint and believes he has a clear advantage. He mentions Sherman's back issues and past PED suspension but still favors him.

"i think chase has a massive athleticism advantage in this spot i think he's going to really uh go on to those uh the the light kicks are going to be key to him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has good durability, leg kicks, and clinch work. Sherman's volume drops in later rounds, while Porter maintains his pace. If Porter survives the first round, he can take over. I'm picking Porter by decision, but I'm hesitant as some respected people are on Sherman.

over 1.5 rounds (-165); Porter by decision (+425)
"i like porter here quarterback decision laugh at me all you want but i think he has the chops to go out there and uh definitely not look like a plus 165"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter as a live underdog, highlighting his durability, leg kicks, and pressure. He questions Sherman's cardio and mental toughness, noting Sherman looked defeated against Arlovski. He sees Porter's ability to push pace and land leg kicks as key, but worries about Porter's weight cut and shape.

Fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-165); fight goes the distance (+155)
"i honestly see the fight going over one and a half minus 165 and i think fight goes the distance at plus 155 sounds crazy not crazy at all"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman to win by TKO. He notes Sherman is bigger, has good cardio, and a reach advantage. He expects Sherman to use elbows against the cage on the shorter Porter. He acknowledges Porter's win over Josh Parisian but considers it unimpressive.

TKO by elbows against the cage
"i'm gonna go chase sherman good cardio he's a massive guy for the heavyweight division much bigger than parker porter"
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 105 of 222 47% 109 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 88 of 192 45% 99 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 33 of 69 47% 33 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 32 of 69 46% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 21 of 58 36% 32 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 46 of 88 52% 46 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 34 of 65 52% 34 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 105 of 222 47% 54 of 154 26 of 39 25 of 29 103 of 217 2 of 5 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 88 of 192 45% 55 of 154 16 of 20 17 of 18 84 of 187 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 27 of 65 41% 15 of 51 4 of 6 8 of 8 25 of 61 2 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 33 of 69 47% 22 of 55 6 of 8 5 of 6 31 of 66 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 47 10 of 12 6 of 10 32 of 68 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 21 of 58 36% 12 of 49 4 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 46 of 88 52% 23 of 56 12 of 21 11 of 11 46 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 34 of 65 52% 21 of 50 6 of 8 7 of 7 33 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Big Brady picks Andrei Arlovski to win by decision, though he is not very confident. He notes that Arlovski is a favorite for the first time in many fights and that Sherman is the easiest opponent Arlovski has faced in a long time. He highlights Sherman's poor striking defense (absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute) and Arlovski's good defense (absorbs 2.83). However, he is concerned about Arlovski's age (42) and lack of knockout power. He sees the fight as close and likely to go to decision.

"i'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Cody thinks Arlovski is old and boring, landing only 30-50 significant strikes per fight. He notes Sherman is younger, has better output, and is improving. He sees Sherman outpointing Arlovski and considers it a dog or pass fight, leaning towards Sherman as the underdog.

"chase german is a plus 105 underdog and to be quite honest i'm kind of feeling the same thing it's a dodger path type fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi leans toward Arlovski, noting that he is the better fighter and a sharp counter-puncher. He acknowledges that Chase Sherman has good leg kicks and is 10 years younger, and that Arlovski is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall. Levi mentions that he has faded Arlovski in the past with mixed results, but this time he thinks Arlovski can win a close decision. He also speculates that Sherman might still be using performance-enhancing drugs.

"i'm going to lean arlowski i think he's the better fighter here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chase Sherman

Manpreet leans toward Sherman by KO, citing his improved calf-kick-heavy style and the fact that Arlovski's movement-based game could be neutralized by leg kicks. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Sherman's post-suspension performance but believes Sherman's pressure and power can lead to a finish, likely in the second round after wearing Arlovski down.

Sherman by KO +255; under 2.5 rounds +135
"i think chase sherman could go out there and beat up that front leg of uh andre arlovski and really start to go to work with his hands"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul says friends don't let friends bet on Chase Sherman, but he is leaning towards Sherman as the underdog. He acknowledges both fighters are bottom heavyweights and that Sherman is 11 years younger. He is not confident and calls it a pitbull or pass fight.

"friends don't let friends bet on chase sherman cody all right let's move on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski to win by unanimous decision. He notes Arlovski is a tricky veteran who is patient and pushes a good pace. He believes Chase Sherman needs to overwhelm opponents to win, but Arlovski's level of opposition is much higher. He expects Sherman to go all out in the first round, but Arlovski will take over in the second and third for a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to go with olofsky here against chase sherman"
TKO (elbow and punches) R2 0:49 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · May 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 1 51 of 87 58% 51 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 16 of 54 29% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 39 of 69 56% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 51 of 87 58% 27 of 57 13 of 15 11 of 15 46 of 80 4 of 6 1 of 1
Ike Villanueva 16 of 54 29% 13 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 39 of 69 56% 17 of 42 13 of 15 9 of 12 39 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 14 of 48 29% 11 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 12 of 18 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 3 7 of 11 4 of 6 1 of 1
Ike Villanueva 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 11, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady leans with Chase Sherman due to his UFC experience and size advantage, noting that Ike Villanueva is moving up from light heavyweight and will be the smaller fighter. He acknowledges Villanueva's speed and power but believes Sherman can weather the early storm and take over in the second round, predicting a second-round knockout. However, he calls it a very low-level fight and is not highly confident.

Sherman wins by knockout in round 2
"I'm gonna go with Sherman second round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 12, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Chase Sherman

Daniel Levi leans with Chase Sherman, citing his size, UFC experience, and thunderous leg kicks. He notes that Villanueva is a former middleweight/light heavyweight and smaller, but admits Sherman's head movement is poor and a knockout from Villanueva wouldn't surprise him.

"I'll lean with Sherman for that reason but it's not gonna surprise me one bit if the newcomer comes out here and knocks him out either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman, citing his better chin and experience against tougher opponents, including a fight with Rashad Coulter. He notes that Ike Villanueva lost to Trevin Giles, a middleweight, in the first round, and questions his durability. He predicts Sherman will finish Villanueva in the second round via TKO once Villanueva gasses.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna go chase Sherman... by second round or first round TKO once Villanueva gets rid of his initial burst of juice."