UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Dec 30, 2017 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 36
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Michał Oleksiejczuk
5.85 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.5 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Khalil Rountree Jr.
3.88 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.33 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Michał Oleksiejczuk - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 140 of 221 63% 143 of 225 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:30
Marc-André Barriault 0 77 of 201 38% 79 of 204 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 47 of 73 64% 47 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Marc-André Barriault 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 41 of 68 60% 42 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 33 of 80 41% 34 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 52 of 80 65% 54 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Marc-André Barriault 0 25 of 67 37% 26 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michał Oleksiejczuk 140 of 221 63% 91 of 161 39 of 49 10 of 11 138 of 218 1 of 1 1 of 2
Marc-André Barriault 77 of 201 38% 57 of 178 16 of 19 4 of 4 59 of 173 18 of 28 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 47 of 73 64% 32 of 56 8 of 9 7 of 8 46 of 71 0 of 0 1 of 2
Marc-André Barriault 19 of 54 35% 9 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michał Oleksiejczuk 41 of 68 60% 27 of 49 11 of 16 3 of 3 40 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 33 of 80 41% 28 of 74 5 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 60 12 of 20 0 of 0
3 Michał Oleksiejczuk 52 of 80 65% 32 of 56 20 of 24 0 of 0 52 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 25 of 67 37% 20 of 60 5 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 59 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing his fast hands and power, with 8 knockouts in 9 UFC wins. He notes that Barriault's chin seems to be fading and that Oleksiejczuk hits incredibly hard. He acknowledges Barriault's wrestling could be a problem but thinks Oleksiejczuk's speed and power will prevail. He suggests under 2.5 rounds might be solid.

Under 2.5 rounds might be solid
"I'm going to pick McCall here because I think the chin's kind of fading a little bit on Mark Andre. McCall hits hard as hell."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing that Marc-André Barriault's chin has been cracked recently, with three knockout losses in his last four fights. He believes Oleksiejczuk's pressure and power will be too much for Barriault, who has taken a lot of damage. He predicts a first-round finish.

by first round finish
"Mikuel Jose by first round finish."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Cody agrees, highlighting Oleksiejczuk's 8 first-round KOs in 9 UFC wins. He notes Barriault's history of being knocked out in the first round and his inability to change his game. Cody expects Oleksiejczuk to win by KO or decision, but is confident in the victory.

"He's either going to knock out Mark Andre Barry in the first round or he's going to win a split decision. But I think he wins in either case."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Oleksiejczuk is a good athlete who is not shot, while Barriault is past his prime and gets hurt easily. He thinks Oleksiejczuk will put it all on Barriault and likely hurt him early. He mentions that Barriault's only chance is if Oleksiejczuk's cardio fades.

Same odds discussion.
"I'll take a look at Sajak too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Lucrative James picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by KO in round one. He believes Barriault's chin is compromised and that Oleksiejczuk's power and early-round danger will be too much. James notes that Barriault's style of walking forward plays into Oleksiejczuk's hands, and he expects a quick finish.

KO in round 1
"My official prediction on this fight is Michelle Alex to KO Mar Andre Bariel in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The host picks Oleksiejczuk by knockout, but notes the line is too wide at -350. He believes Oleksiejczuk's power will eventually find Barriault's chin, but warns that Barriault could make it tough if his chin holds up, using clinch work and cardio to wear Oleksiejczuk down. He suggests a live bet on Barriault in later rounds.

plus 285 on Barriault is worth a sprinkle; live betting Barriault in rounds 2-3
"So the prediction is going to be Ole Shuk by knock. I think he eventually lands that big shot and puts Bario away. But in terms of odds, minus 350 is just far too wide to be confident enough on …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Paul picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, expecting a first-round knockout. He notes Barriault's recent durability issues and Oleksiejczuk's power, especially since joining Fighting Nerds. Paul believes Oleksiejczuk's improved patience and game planning will lead to an early finish.

"Mikey O knockout round one for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The host picks Michał Oleksiejczuk over Marc-André Barriault. He notes Oleksiejczuk has real power at middleweight and a resurgence since joining Fighting Nerds. He thinks Barriault has been on the receiving end of too many TKO losses. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first round TKO
"I think Michał Oleksiejczuk's dusting him up in round one by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Zane picks Oleksiejczuk because he is not physically washed and has a good multi-level striking attack. He notes that Barriault gets hurt too easily and is vulnerable, as seen in his fight against Shara Bullet. He thinks Oleksiejczuk will hurt Barriault quickly, though if it doesn't work out, it could become a hairy fight.

Oleksiejczuk opened at -225, currently -550; Barriault at +400.
"I think I have to take Michael Oksajuk."
KO R1 3:03 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gerald Meerschaert 0 3 of 16 18% 3 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gerald Meerschaert 0 3 of 16 18% 3 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gerald Meerschaert 3 of 16 18% 2 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 23 of 51 45% 18 of 46 5 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 31 0 of 0 12 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gerald Meerschaert 3 of 16 18% 2 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 23 of 51 45% 18 of 46 5 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 31 0 of 0 12 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo notes Oleksiejczuk is a pure striker with power and fast hands, while Meerschaert is a grappler with questionable chin and takedown accuracy. He thinks it's easier for Oleksiejczuk to stay on the feet and land strikes than for Meerschaert to get the fight to the ground. He leans Oleksiejczuk but says he should not be a -225 favorite in such a tricky matchup.

Under no circumstances should he be a minus 225 in a very tricky matchup
"I'm going to lean McCall because I think it's easier for him to stay away from the takedowns while letting his hands fly against a somewhat chinny Gerro Mirard."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oleksiejczuk is a phenomenal striker with bodywork, volume, and power, while Meerschaert is at a massive striking disadvantage. However, he acknowledges the grappling danger: Meerschaert has 30 submission wins and Oleksiejczuk has been submitted six times. He thinks Oleksiejczuk can keep the fight standing and knock out Meerschaert, especially if he has improved his takedown defense. He mentions Oleksiejczuk's ability to get back up when taken down.

Oleksiejczuk by KO, round 1
"I think Oluk knocks out Mirart, and I think he does it in round number one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The host believes Oleksiejczuk's improvements from training with the fighting nerds will carry over, though it may result in a more measured approach. He expects Oleksiejczuk to wear Meerschaert down with striking and secure a finish in the third round.

finish in the third round
"I think he'll eventually be able to muster up a finish in the third round of this fight as he wears Mirard down with his striking approach"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Oleksiejczuk has improved since joining the Fighting Nerds and has nasty ground and pound and power. The Guru notes that Meerschaert is on borrowed time and doesn't move his head well, making him vulnerable. He also mentions that Oleksiejczuk has good grappling defense and reversals, so he won't be a fish out of water on the ground.

TKO first or second round; Oleksiejczuk finishes Meerschaert
"I'm going with Macaux. ... TKO first or second round."
KO R1 2:49 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sedriques Dumas 0 3 of 26 11% 3 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 34 of 57 59% 34 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sedriques Dumas 0 3 of 26 11% 3 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 34 of 57 59% 34 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sedriques Dumas 3 of 26 11% 0 of 18 2 of 5 1 of 3 3 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 34 of 57 59% 27 of 49 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 27 0 of 0 21 of 30
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sedriques Dumas 3 of 26 11% 0 of 18 2 of 5 1 of 3 3 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 34 of 57 59% 27 of 49 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 27 0 of 0 21 of 30
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Daniel Levi was happy to see Michał Oleksiejczuk get a first-round stoppage over Sedriques Dumas. He praises Oleksiejczuk for changing his training environment to the Fighting Nerds and showing maturity and measured striking, outstriking Dumas 34 to 3 in under three minutes.

"What I was really happy about was seeing Mllicha go out there and get that first round stoppage over Cedric's Dumas."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 97 of 178 54% 123 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 77 of 146 52% 94 of 172 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 40 of 74 54% 42 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 35 of 53 66% 36 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 35 of 64 54% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 24 of 52 46% 28 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
3 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 22 of 40 55% 44 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 18 of 41 43% 30 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sharabutdin Magomedov 97 of 178 54% 52 of 112 33 of 52 12 of 14 89 of 163 8 of 15 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 77 of 146 52% 45 of 103 18 of 27 14 of 16 72 of 138 4 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sharabutdin Magomedov 40 of 74 54% 16 of 39 17 of 26 7 of 9 38 of 69 2 of 5 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 35 of 53 66% 23 of 38 9 of 11 3 of 4 34 of 50 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Sharabutdin Magomedov 35 of 64 54% 24 of 48 7 of 12 4 of 4 33 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 24 of 52 46% 12 of 35 5 of 9 7 of 8 22 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Sharabutdin Magomedov 22 of 40 55% 12 of 25 9 of 14 1 of 1 18 of 34 4 of 6 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 18 of 41 43% 10 of 30 4 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 38 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Angelo picks Magomedov despite concerns about his recent activity and lack of killer instinct. He thinks Magomedov is still very powerful and should be good enough to win, especially as Oleksiejczuk fades late. He notes Magomedov's busy schedule and possible lack of camp, but still expects a win.

Over 1.5 rounds if line available
"Char marov is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Big Brady is confident in Sharabutdin due to Oleksiejczuk's concerning situation: he is not with a team, training in his garage, talking about retirement, and has been finished quickly in recent fights. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's heart is not in it and he will fold after the first few minutes, predicting a first-round knockout for Sharabutdin.

"I got to go sh here I I'm not sure what's going on with meluk but whatever is going on it's it's super weird"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Cody picks Sharabutdin Magomedov, noting that Michał Oleksiejczuk has one foot out the door, training in his garage and talking about retirement. He believes Shara is still improving and has more upside, while Oleksiejczuk has stagnated. Cody thinks Shara's cardio and grappling will improve fight to fight, and that Oleksiejczuk's only path is an early knockout. He also mentions Shara is being fed winnable opponents.

"Char is the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Daniel believes Shara has a superior striking arsenal and will capitalize on Oleksiejczuk's overly aggressive style. He notes that Oleksiejczuk makes bonehead mistakes on the mat and likes to brawl, which plays into Shara's hands. He thinks Shara will blast the body and take advantage of openings, and that the time to fade Shara is not now but against a real grappler.

"give me Shara there to come out here and get the dub"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Oleksiejczuk will crowd Magomedov, causing issues for his kicking game. If he reins in his durability, he should land big power and possibly knock out Magomedov in the first two rounds.

knockout in first two rounds
"ol shj has a little bit of a durability issue but if he can Reign it in for this matchup and really keep Mago medov on the back foot he should be able to land that big Power and I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Paul picks Sharabutdin Magomedov, citing Oleksiejczuk's poor cardio and submission losses. He notes that Oleksiejczuk has been submitted multiple times and that Shara's striking is good enough to outvolume him. Paul expects Shara to finish late or win a decision, and mentions a potential Shara late finish prop. He also points out that Oleksiejczuk has no cardio and poor grappling.

Shara late finish prop
"I'd be interested in like um Mega mov late prop maybe this squeez into the third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Sharabutdin Magomedov over Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing Magomedov's superior striking and low kicks. He notes Oleksiejczuk's poor mindset, having commented that he will probably lose. He thinks Magomedov's technical outside work will be enough, despite his weak ground game. He mentions Oleksiejczuk's vulnerability to low kicks while moving backwards.

"I'm going to pick Shara magedov to win this fight I think he's better than maau Alex Atri on the feet"
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Technical Submission (armbar) R1 1:34 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 8 of 18 44% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 8 of 18 44% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 8 of 17 47% 5 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 8 of 18 44% 5 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 8 of 17 47% 5 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 8 of 18 44% 5 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite the short notice, believing his range, accuracy, and experience will overcome Michał Oleksiejczuk's early power. He notes that Holland is the bigger fighter and has a massive advantage on the ground. He is a little worried about Oleksiejczuk's fast hands but is confident Holland will win.

"Kevin Holland is going to be the pick I'm pretty confident in him to get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady likes Kevin Holland a lot, stating he should not only win but win dominantly by finish (KO or submission). He believes Holland has advantages everywhere and that Oleksiejczuk is a round-one knockout bust if the fight goes to the second. He acknowledges Holland's poor fight IQ but thinks this is a big step down in competition. He expects a finish, possibly in the first round.

Kevin Holland wins inside the distance, finish in first round possible
"I like Holland here and he's not too expensive he's only 9k I think he's live for a finish it could be early as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, calling Oleksiejczuk a 'glass cannon' who fades after the first round. He notes Oleksiejczuk's six first-round KOs but argues his wins are over low-level opposition. Cody believes Holland's durability, volume, and pace will be too much, and that Holland's frame at 185 lbs is fine. He suggests Holland is a better value at -280 than Makhachev at -700.

"Oleksiejczuk is a front runner... his game just totally falls apart when the fight extends beyond the first round... Kevin Holland is the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Vreeland picks Kevin Holland despite being unhappy about it. He argues that Holland doesn't walk into shots on the feet and has survived fights with excellent strikers like Jack Della Maddalena and Michael Venom Page without being knocked out. Vreeland doesn't see Oleksiejczuk as the guy to finally tag Holland, nor does he think Oleksiejczuk can win a decision. He acknowledges Holland fights stupidly but sees no path for Oleksiejczuk.

"I don't see a way that Ola shck gets his hands on him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Daniel fades Holland due to his tendency to fool around and rely on physical gifts. He believes Oleksiejczuk's pressure and durability will break Holland, citing his fights with Krylov and Jacoby. He worries about Holland's neck attacks but sees value in the underdog.

"I'm gonna go on a limb here and actually take the underdog"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Jeff Fox picks Oleksiejczuk because he has no faith in Kevin Holland fighting smart. He notes Holland has lost two straight and tends to eat shots. Fox points to Oleksiejczuk's knockout of Sam Alvey and his power, believing he can catch Holland. He dismisses Holland's durability against top strikers, saying Oleksiejczuk is the type to land a big shot.

"I don't have any faith in Kevin Holland I'm taking here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host expects Holland to use his length and footwork to keep Oleksiejczuk at range and eventually find a finish. Oleksiejczuk's pressure style may be nullified by Holland's striking and sneaky submission game. However, the host notes that Holland is tough to trust at -260, but if he fights smart, he should win inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I'm going to go Holland and Holland inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Holland, noting his incredible chin and durability. He expects Oleksiejczuk to have early success but fade, and Holland to find his groove and finish via submission (club and sub). He mentions Holland's submission skills and Oleksiejczuk's poor cardio. Paul likes Holland by submission at +275.

Holland by submission (+275)
"Holland for all his flaws his chin is incredible... I feel like Oleksiejczuk will have some big time success early and then Holland will find his groove... I kind of see this ending in a club and sub type of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, though he is hesitant. He believes Kevin Holland has lost his snap and grit, and that Oleksiejczuk will have a weight advantage at 185. He notes Oleksiejczuk's underrated grappling and ability to outgrapple Holland. He worries about Holland's motivation and thinks Oleksiejczuk has more drive.

"I'm going to go with maau atrick though I think he's got more drive"
LOSS vs Michel Pereira
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:01 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 11 of 15 73% 5 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 11 of 15 73% 5 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, citing his better cardio, power, and grappling. He notes Oleksiejczuk has a great chin but can fade. He has a half-unit bet on Pereira at -130, but keeps it small because Oleksiejczuk could survive early and outpoint him.

Half unit bet on Pereira at -130.
"I still think P wins this fight and I do like the odds at minus 130 I've got a little bit of a bet on that as well half a unit on P here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by decision. He notes that while Pereira has a BJJ black belt, he doesn't wrestle often and lacks the cardio to grapple for 15 minutes. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Oleksiejczuk's forward pressure, body work, and volume will wear down Pereira and win the later rounds.

win by decision
"I'm going to go Mel o to win this fight Win It by decision I think the bodyw work's going to come into play the cardio the volume is all going to come into play"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody notes that Pereira has matured and now fights more conservatively, using his accuracy and wrestling. He thinks Oleksiejczuk is a reckless brawler with poor takedown defense, and Pereira will counter him and mix in takedowns to win a decision.

"I will go with Pereira"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Oleksiejczuk has great durability and forward pressure, marching forward and breaking opponents with his boxing. He has eaten clean shots and continued to push. Pereira is dangerous early with his unorthodox power, but Oleksiejczuk's durability should allow him to weather the early storm. As the fight goes on, Oleksiejczuk will start to catch Pereira, coral him against the cage, and land combinations. I expect Oleksiejczuk to get a finish in the second or third round, possibly by knockout.

Oleksiejczuk by knockout, live betting Oleksiejczuk after first round
"I have to lean with the O shuk side here as I believe that his durability will allow him to kind of just way through the early threat that Pera normally uh implements in his fights and from there I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul agrees, highlighting Pereira's improved fight IQ and the fact that he looked great at 185. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's wrestling is exploitable and that Pereira has multiple ways to win.

"Pereira is the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing concerns about Michel Pereira's finishing ability and cardio. He notes Pereira failed to finish chinny fighters like Andre Fialho and Nico Price, and that Oleksiejczuk is extremely tough and has power. He predicts Oleksiejczuk will pressure Pereira, take him down, and finish with a body shot TKO in round two.

round two body shot TKO
"I'm GNA say round two body shot TKO from maau Alex huk"
Khalil Rountree Jr. - Fight History
KO R3 3:04 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 1 71 of 138 51% 71 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 66 of 158 41% 66 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 24 of 65 36% 24 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jiří Procházka 1 47 of 71 66% 47 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 71 of 138 51% 44 of 100 16 of 25 11 of 13 61 of 127 10 of 11 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 66 of 158 41% 44 of 127 12 of 17 10 of 14 62 of 151 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 12 of 24 50% 7 of 17 1 of 2 4 of 5 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 32 46% 9 of 22 4 of 6 2 of 4 15 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 12 of 43 27% 7 of 34 1 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 24 of 65 36% 10 of 47 7 of 9 7 of 9 24 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jiří Procházka 47 of 71 66% 30 of 49 14 of 19 3 of 3 37 of 60 10 of 11 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 27 of 61 44% 25 of 58 1 of 2 1 of 1 23 of 54 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiří Procházka but is not confident, as he thinks the odds are too wide. He believes Procházka's relentless forward pressure and threat of takedowns will be key against Khalil Rountree, who struggles when moving backwards. However, he notes Procházka gets hit a lot and has been knocked out twice recently, while Rountree has power and durability. He calls it a very close fight.

"I'm going to pick Yuri here because I think that relentless crazy person forward pressure is going to be tricky for Khalil who does not fight as well backing up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady acknowledges Procházka's poor striking defense but believes he is built differently and will break Rountree as the fight goes on. He notes that Procházka often switches to an aggressive style in the second round, as seen in the Rakic fight. He predicts Procházka wins by second-round knockout.

Jiří Procházka by second round knockout.
"I like Yuri Bhashka to win this fight. I think he's going to break Khalil as the fight goes on. I'm going to take Gary Bhashka by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, emphasizing that Rountree's technical improvements have not overcome his mental fragility. He notes that Procházka's relentless pressure and willingness to exchange will force Rountree into defensive mode, and that Procházka's athleticism and relaxed style give him an edge. Connor also acknowledges the possibility of Rountree landing a knockout or leg kicks, but believes Procházka's overall dynamics favor him.

"I got to just go with Proshaska here in terms of the general overall dynamics."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The host expects a violent matchup, but Rountree's improvements will help him find Procházka's chin and his power will put Procházka away by knockout.

"I believe this will be a very violent matchup, but the improvements in Rountree's game, I think, will help him find the chin of Procházka. And I think Rountree has the type of power to put Procházka away."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka, believing his chaos and durability will overwhelm Khalil Rountree. He notes Rountree's lack of one-punch KO power and tendency to fade under pressure. He predicts a third-round TKO.

third-round TKO
"I'm going to say that Jiri Prochazka gets a third round TKO win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane picks Procházka because he believes Rountree's mentality is his biggest weakness, as seen in the Jamal Hill fight where Rountree fought with fear despite having a technical advantage. Zane argues that Procházka's fearless, chaotic pressure will overwhelm Rountree, who tends to tense up and fight with a panic response. He also notes that Procházka is a better athlete, faster, and more dynamic, and that Rountree's leg kicks could be a threat but are unlikely to stop Procházka's forward pressure.

"I think that's just going to make him terrified of fighting Yuri Prashaska. Just terrified."
WIN vs Jamahal Hill
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 69 of 172 40% 70 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 102 of 181 56% 102 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 17 of 30 56% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 15 of 33 45% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 25 24% 6 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jamahal Hill 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jamahal Hill 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 37 of 57 64% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 69 of 172 40% 47 of 142 7 of 12 15 of 18 68 of 170 0 of 1 1 of 1
Khalil Rountree Jr. 102 of 181 56% 30 of 91 42 of 54 30 of 36 102 of 181 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 14 of 30 46% 2 of 17 3 of 3 9 of 10 14 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 17 of 30 56% 2 of 13 7 of 8 8 of 9 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 15 of 33 45% 10 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 35 42% 3 of 19 5 of 7 7 of 9 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 6 of 25 24% 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 2 6 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 29 51% 7 of 17 2 of 5 6 of 7 15 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jamahal Hill 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 18 of 30 60% 8 of 17 6 of 7 4 of 6 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jamahal Hill 26 of 56 46% 21 of 49 2 of 4 3 of 3 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 37 of 57 64% 10 of 25 22 of 27 5 of 5 37 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Angelo picks Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his durability and power. He notes that Rountree went toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira and showed he belongs. He thinks Jamahal Hill has good footwork but may slow down, and that Rountree has more upside. He expects a fun fight and thinks Rountree can win if he pressures.

Mentions upside for fantasy; expects a fun fight.
"I'm going to pick Khalil Roundtree. I'm probably going to put him in my lineup because I think the upside is on his side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill as a plus money underdog, but he is very hesitant due to Hill's recent performances after a gruesome injury. He notes that if Hill were the same fighter who beat Glover Teixeira, he would be max betting him, but the Hill who fought Pereira and Prochazka looked bad. Brady worries about Hill's durability and whether the injury took something out of him. He ultimately picks Hill but says he's not sure if he wants to put money on him, predicting a late finish or decision.

plus money underdog, not sure if I want to put my money on him
"I'm going to go Jamal Hill. I'm going to take the dog here to get it done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Connor picks Rountree, emphasizing that Rountree is a much more consistent technician while Hill is a bad technician with poor footwork and defense, leaving him open to be picked apart. He notes that Hill's durability against Prochazka may not hold against a cleaner puncher like Rountree, and that Rountree's roteness gives him consistency similar to Pereira. He believes if Rountree can't finish early, Hill's pressure could turn the fight, but he still favors Rountree.

"I'm picking Roundtree because I think I just can't like that 30 seconds of the 30 seconds of footage. It's just so stark."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The host notes Rountree opened around -160 but has moved to -120 as money came in on Hill, and he agrees with that movement. He thinks this is a great stylistic matchup for Hill to batter Rountree from distance, counter strike effectively, and pull away in deep water, predicting a round three or four KO finish.

round 3 or 4 KO finish
"I think this is a great stylistic match up for Hill to batter round tree from distance, counter strike effectively and then start pulling away in deep water which is where I expect Jamal Hill to come through with either …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr., despite acknowledging Jamahal Hill's underrated skills. He believes Rountree's low kicks will be decisive, and notes Hill's predictable movement. He also cites Rountree's longer recovery time since his loss to Pereira compared to Hill's recent brutal loss to Prochazka. He predicts a leg kick TKO in round 2 or 3.

Rountree wins by TKO (leg kicks) in round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Khil Roundree Jr. I think the low kicks are going to be really good for him. I think we're going to see a rare leg kick TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Zane picks Rountree based on the stark technical advantage he sees in 30 seconds of footage: Rountree is much cleaner as a striker with better footwork, power, speed, and a more varied arsenal. However, he acknowledges Hill's comfort in messiness and ability to up the intensity over five rounds, drawing a parallel to Diaz vs Edwards. He is hesitant because Hill's durability and scrapping mentality could turn the fight late, but he ultimately sticks with Rountree.

"I'm picking Roundtree because I think I just can't like that 30 seconds of the 30 seconds of footage. It's just so stark."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
TKO (punches) R4 4:32 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 1 127 of 209 60% 129 of 211 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 61 of 191 31% 62 of 193 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 10 of 42 23% 10 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Pereira 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alex Pereira 0 31 of 49 63% 31 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alex Pereira 1 63 of 92 68% 65 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 15 of 53 28% 16 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 127 of 209 60% 92 of 167 17 of 20 18 of 22 123 of 205 4 of 4 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 61 of 191 31% 34 of 155 16 of 23 11 of 13 60 of 189 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 15 of 27 55% 7 of 17 3 of 4 5 of 6 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 10 of 42 23% 8 of 39 1 of 1 1 of 2 10 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 18 of 41 43% 11 of 31 2 of 3 5 of 7 18 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 11 of 42 26% 10 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Pereira 31 of 49 63% 22 of 39 5 of 5 4 of 5 30 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 25 of 54 46% 7 of 32 12 of 15 6 of 7 25 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Alex Pereira 63 of 92 68% 52 of 80 7 of 8 4 of 4 60 of 89 3 of 3 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 53 28% 9 of 46 2 of 3 4 of 4 14 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-535), Rountree (+400)

Round 1
Possibly not the fight that fans wanted, the UFC has put Pereira (11-2, 8-1 UFC) in another headlining spot as he plans on defending his light heavyweight throne for the third time this year. While Rountree (13-5, 1 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) has won five in a row, with four of those by knockout, he did recently fail a post-fight drug test and was still elevated to a championship opportunity. “Poatan” does not care, as he seeks to crush, maim and destroy any challenger standing before him. Referee Marc Goddard dons his proverbial hard hat and hopes to stay away from any errant blows, although he is relieved when the strikers come together and respectfully tap their gloves together to demonstrate sportsmanship. It’s on with the show. Pereira lashes out with a front kick to introduce himself, and it brushes past Rountree’s face as he grabs hold of it and hurls Pereira down to a knee. Rountree lets him up and backs off, and he lunges in with a right hand but pulls back when he is out of range. Pereira goes high with a kick that is blocked, and he parries a left hook. Rountree reaches the target with a left hand, and he sticks the champ with a one-two. Rountree again lands a long left hand, and Pereira smacks him with a front-leg calf kick. Rountree shuts up chants of “Chama” by launching strikes at his opponent, catching the favorite before he can block them. Pereira counters a strike with a right hand down the pipe, and Rountree is no worse for wear and throws back with a left. Pereira hacks at the front leg, keeping his hands up to block jabs or power strikes. When Pereira kicks high, Rountree charges through them but does not quite have his range nailed down. Pereira backs him up against the wall, but Rountree escapes before absorbing anything. They both land single shots, and Pereira smacks him upside the head with a kick. The calf kick that follows is more effective for the champ, and he hand-fights jabs but gets caught with a lunging left hand. Rountree gets to him with another left, and he dances away from a head kick and a leg kick that follows. Rountree misses a left hand by an inch, and he blocks a high kick and tries to sweep the leg. Rountree gets a right hand in on the champion, and Pereira jabs him back away. Rountree blitzes forward with three punches, and Pereira darts away but still eats one or two. Pereira comes out firing, and Rountree ducks away to get out of harm’s way. Rountree wings a right hand over the top, and a leg kick irritates him in response. Rountree takes two strong jabs and steels himself to loose a right hand, and he circles away as the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rountree

Round 2
Pereira is eager to get going again, and Goddard has to back him up before clocking them in again. Rountree gives him back a few blitzes to think about, but none of them land cleanly. Pereira kicks low and then high, and Rountree comes up hitting air on the counter. Rountree counters a body kick with a right hand, and he swats out a pair of hooks that make Pereira back off but for a moment. “Poatan” clips the challenger with a right hand, and he gets in a left hook to further wobble Rountree’s knees. Rountree gathers his thoughts and struggles with a low kick, and the punches split open the bridge of his nose. Pereira goes after another calf kick but is shy of his intended target, and his jab further bloodies the nose. Pereira jabs the body with his toes extended, and he lowers his hands to encourage Rountree to come at him. Rountree checks a kick and jabs to the body, but Pereira is walking him down fearlessly. The Brazilian jabs his way into a strike, and Rountree clips him behind the ear but absorbs a hard calf kick. They trade jabs in their alternating stances, and Rountree comes up short with his big left hook. Rountree again tries to connect with a right hook, and Pereira lashes out with a head kick. Rountree sees it coming, allows Pereira to plant and bashes him in the face with a right hand. Pereira drops to a knee and is staggered, his bell rung, and he stands to spin around and shake it off in a hurry. Pereira recovers quickly, as he is right in front of the challenger plugging him with jab after jab. Three punches from Rountree manage to get through, and the crowd starts to get behind him as they chant “USA.” Pereira tosses out a right hand, and he gets drilled with a head kick as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira

Round 3
“Poatan” crowds the challenger the second Goddard clocks them in, moving forward with purpose. He does not throw more than a single jab early, until he goes after a right hand and gets his head snapped back from a powerful left hook from “The War Horse.” Rountree lands cleanly to the body, and Pereira has to take a moment to reset as he reacts strangely to the blow while bounding off the fence. Rountree wings a right hand to the body, and he brushes another few punches off the champ’s face. Rountree keeps his hands busy, and a left to the body finds the sternum flush. Rountree goes there again when avoiding a single right hand, and they both tag one another with hard hooks. When Pereira gets in two jabs, Rountree answers with two hooks and a body shot. Pereira has a low kick checked, but two more find their home as Rountree thinks about changing stances as a limp slowly develops. When Rountree comes out swinging, Pereira intercepts with a front leg, and it nearly gives way beneath him. Rountree ducks a head kick and tags the champ with a left hook, and he goes after an inside leg kick to pay “Poatan” back for his investment in leg strikes. Rountree lands to the head and goes to the body, and he backs away. Rountree’s head kick is blocked, and Pereira tosses one back that is similarly rebounded off the guard. Rountree swipes out with a right hand, and he reaches the champ with a left as Pereira backs away. Pereira kicks him in the ribs and then steps in with a knee, and his jab snaps the head back. Rountree reacts poorly from absorbing the strikes, giving Pereira confidence. The Brazilian strides after him, finding jab after jab further damaging the nose of the challenger. They trade low kicks, and Pereira splits the guard with two punches and a knee before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira

Round 4
When the championship rounds hit, Pereira is quick to attack the front leg to further invest in disabling it. Rountree gives him a few kicks back to think about, and they trade front kicks as “Poatan” nods at him. It is the Brazilian’s kicks that are breaking through the defenses, and they open up strikes over the top as a jab from Pereira stings the challenger. Strikes from Pereira are starting to have additional, compounding impact on Rountree’s mug, and swelling is growing under Rountree’s right eye. Rountree tries to pay him back, but Pereira is in his stride, tagging Rountree with a flurry of fists. When Rountree starts to flag, Pereira pours it on, and this only excites Rountree. He might be hurt and bloodying up fast, but he is swinging for the fences and Pereira is not backing down. The eyebrow of Rountree is ripped wide open and hanging over Rountree’s eye, and Pereira is a man possessed. “Poatan” marches down the challenger, clubbing him with punishing strikes, picking them to the head and body and knocking Rountree around the cage. Rountree’s volume falls off a cliff, and his strikes are labored as he is low on energy. Pereira tags Rountree, and Rountree gathers every bit of energy left in him and throws back with the worst of intentions. Pereira walks him down like a Terminator, laying into him with ruthless punches and a few knees for good measure. Rountree unloads with hook after hook in hopes of keeping Pereira at bay, but Pereira is a man on a mission and knows the finish is around the corner. Rountree bounces weakly off the cage wall, and Pereira switches up his head shots to a few to the body while blood sprays everywhere. Seeing Rountree’s guard is wide open, “Poatan” splits it with a merciless uppercut and nearly dislodges the mouthpiece. Roasting Rountree’s ribs with a ruthless right and a mighty left, “The War Horse” folds like wet cardboard box. The spirit is willing but the flesh is bloody and wounded, and Rountree falls to a knee and is done. Goddard knows he needs to get involved before any further punishment is inflicted, and he waves things off to save Rountree from his impossible toughness. Pereira has done it, outlasting an extremely dangerous challenger that took the first two rounds. Pulling off the outstanding feat of three defenses in a calendar year, Pereira is entering rarified air as he adds to his legendary status. With options in several divisions, “Poatan” suggests that he will stay away from middleweight for the time being, hints about a possible heavyweight move and ultimately notes that he is happy as a light heavyweight. With the crowd in the palm of his hand, the Brazilian gets the thousands in attendance chanting his catchphrase of “Chama.” No matter who he fights next, we will be here it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Khalil Rountree R4 4:32 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira to win, citing his power, size, and reach advantage. He acknowledges Khalil Rountree is the most dangerous striker Pereira has faced, with lightning speed and power, but believes Pereira's kickboxing pedigree and preparation at elevation will prevail. He notes the line is juiced at -550 and does not recommend a bet at those odds, but is confident in the win. He also expresses a dream scenario of Pereira moving up to heavyweight.

Line is juiced at -550, no bet recommended
"Alex P is the more powerful Striker... I have to pick him to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round knockout, noting that Rountree has said he won't wrestle and will strike. He believes Pereira is the better striker and has been dominant in title defenses. He acknowledges Rountree hits hard and Pereira has been knocked out before, but still favors Pereira strongly.

second round knockout
"I got to go I got to go prair here give me PR to win this fight by second round knockout I think it's going be a fun fight for as long as it last but yeah give me prer …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody picks Pereira because of his superior striking credentials, length, and technique. He notes that Rountree has a puncher's chance but lacks wrestling, and Pereira's path to victory is clear. He also mentions that Pereira could mix in takedowns but expects a standup fight.

"I'm going to take Alex Pereira here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Connor also picks Pereira, agreeing with Zane's assessment. He emphasizes that Rountree's best chance is a counter right hook from southpaw, but Pereira is defensively aware and can lure Rountree into coming forward. Connor notes that Pereira's low kicks and jab will force Rountree to change his approach, and that Rountree's clinch is powerful but Pereira is the bigger clinch fighter.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think I think roundtree makes more sense than Nikita Krylov who's ranked above him or volkan uzdimir who's ranked above him. And i'd certainly rather see him in there than alexander rakic or magma at uncle i have and …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira. He notes that Pereira is a kickboxing champion who has beaten elite competition. He believes Rountree cannot out-technique Pereira and that his only path to victory is a power shot landing. Vreeland thinks Pereira will pick Rountree apart and likely finish him early, suggesting the under 1.5 rounds at +140 is a good bet.

Under 1.5 rounds +140
"I don't think you can out technical Alex P like I I don't think you can go in like I said before like maybe that you're gonna have to try to surprise him some way but like he's he's almost …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Daniel Vreeland believes Alex Pereira's left hook and calf kicks will be too much for Khalil Rountree Jr. He notes that Rountree swings wide and wild, leaving openings for Pereira's counter left hook. Vreeland also points out Pereira's black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and his takedown against Adesanya as advantages. He acknowledges Rountree's power but thinks Pereira's experience against top competition will prevail.

"I think that khil swings a little bit too wide and I think that check or counter left hook is going to be there waiting for him and I think Alex is gonna get another knockout"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira. He notes that this is a good style matchup for Pereira, as Rountree has no way to make it a grappling fight. Fox believes Pereira will win a kickboxing fight and likely knock Rountree out. He appreciates that Pereira takes any fight and finishes opponents.

"I think P definitely wins a kickboxing fight and that's what this is going to be yeah I don't think Rountree has any way to make this a grappling fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Pereira

The host thinks the line is a bit wide considering the fight takes place in the striking realm and Rountree has knockout power. However, he leans with Pereira's technical advantages, expecting him to keep the fight at distance and counter effectively, eventually landing a big shot (likely his left hook) to finish Rountree within two rounds.

line is a little bit wide for my liking
"I will still be leaning with the technical advantages that Pereira has and I think he'll eventually get khil to walk into a big shot probably his pass left hook look for Pereira to keep this fight at distance and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, acknowledging Rountree's power and improvements but emphasizing Pereira's elite striking and the fact that Rountree has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. He believes Pereira's experience and technique will prevail.

"we're both picking the champ to retain"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to KO Khalil Rountree Jr. in the first round. He dismisses Rountree's hype, noting his close fight with Anthony Smith and robbery win over Jacoby. He believes Pereira's composure, low kicks, and body work will be too much, and that Rountree will get caught with a left hook. He also mentions Pereira's recent injury revelation but still expects a dominant win.

"I'm going with Alex Pereira by KO in the first round I'm going to say he just sleeps kill with a left hook"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Zane picks Pereira confidently, citing Pereira's ability to chew up Rountree with low kicks from long range and work his jab. He notes that Rountree's counter-punching is passive and subtractive, relying on waiting for a big mistake rather than forcing opportunities. Zane also points out that Rountree struggles under pressure and that Pereira's size and clinch work will be problematic for Rountree.

Pereira is a big favorite at -493; Rountree opened at +352 and is now +383. Zane feels the odds are correct but notes Pereira's fights can be razor-edge despite his knockouts.
"I am uh going to confidently pick pareda all the same. Yeah, I just don't I don't think roundtree is at his best under pressure like that, yeah."
WIN vs Anthony Smith
TKO (punches) R3 0:56 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 47 of 84 55% 52 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Anthony Smith 1 53 of 114 46% 56 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 19 of 30 63% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 20 of 40 50% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 23 of 48 47% 24 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Anthony Smith 0 23 of 58 39% 25 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 1 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 47 of 84 55% 27 of 62 14 of 16 6 of 6 46 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 53 of 114 46% 33 of 94 14 of 14 6 of 6 51 of 109 1 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 19 of 30 63% 9 of 19 6 of 7 4 of 4 19 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 20 of 40 50% 12 of 32 6 of 6 2 of 2 20 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 23 of 48 47% 15 of 39 7 of 8 1 of 1 22 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 23 of 58 39% 17 of 52 4 of 4 2 of 2 21 of 54 1 of 2 1 of 2
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 5 of 6 83% 3 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 10 of 16 62% 4 of 10 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody likes Anthony Smith as a plus 190 underdog. He notes that Smith is taking the fight on short notice but is likely in shape due to his commentary work in Vegas. Cody highlights Smith's durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He believes Smith can survive Rountree's early onslaught and take the fight to the ground, where he has a massive grappling advantage. Cody also mentions the small Apex cage helps Smith cut off the cage and get takedowns. He acknowledges Rountree's power but thinks Smith can outwork him in later rounds.

Smith by submission possible; small cage favors Smith's takedowns
"I think I'm going to hit some of that because again if he hits if he gets the fight to the ground I rear nak could choke is possible honestly there's a lot that could go right for us if …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)

Lucrative James calls this a 'weird ass fight' and refuses to break it down in detail. He sees Khalil potentially teeing off with leg kicks and body shots, but also notes Khalil's mental inconsistency and cardio issues. He thinks Anthony Smith could out-veteran him in later rounds with takedowns, but Smith doesn't shoot takedowns much anymore. He says it's a massive stay-away and if anything, he'd play Smith as a plus-money underdog due to volatility. He makes no pick.

if anything you just played a plus 190 on Smith
"this is a weird ass fight to me don't ask me to break this one down guys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul agrees with Cody on Anthony Smith at plus 190. He notes that Smith is likely staying in shape in Vegas and has a good chance to survive Rountree's early power. Paul points out that Smith has five-round cardio and can take a shot. He thinks Smith's grappling and experience will be key, especially if he can get the fight to the mat. Paul is not a huge Smith supporter but finds the underdog price too good to pass up.

"I hate that I agree with you but you know we were on Cody budge so let's do it again I haven't been the biggest Anthony Smith supporter whatsoever but yeah at this number it is short notice but at …"
WIN vs Chris Daukaus
TKO (punches) R1 2:40 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Chris Daukaus 0 8 of 21 38% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Chris Daukaus 0 8 of 21 38% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 16 of 24 66% 12 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 17 3 of 4 2 of 3
Chris Daukaus 8 of 21 38% 6 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 16 of 24 66% 12 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 17 3 of 4 2 of 3
Chris Daukaus 8 of 21 38% 6 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Angelo picks Rountree, citing his Muay Thai, speed, and kicks as the difference. He notes Daukaus is a pure boxer who doesn't use takedowns, and the speed advantage at light heavyweight will be key. He expects a decision win.

"I've got to go with Khalil here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree to win by first-round knockout. He notes Rountree's power and aggression when he is 'on', but questions his consistency. He doubts Daukaus's durability and speed at light heavyweight, and believes Rountree will finish him early. He mentions Daukaus's three consecutive knockout losses at heavyweight and thinks the weight cut won't help.

first round knockout
"Round Tree Round Tree first round knockout for me but sometimes Roundtree doesn't show up man sometimes he doesn't show up"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Cody picks Rountree, citing Daukaus' lack of cardio at heavyweight and the unknown of his 40-pound cut to light heavyweight. He notes Daukaus has never attempted a takedown in the UFC and has no history of grappling, while Rountree has shown he can go three rounds. He thinks if the fight stretches, Rountree's power and durability will prevail. He also mentions a potential live betting opportunity if Daukaus takes Rountree down early.

Daukaus by submission at 20-1 (opened), now 8-1; mentions a 14-1 still available
"I think I'm gonna add joke a little Roundtree and uh it would be like a good live betting situation if he does get taken down"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

James has no strong opinion on this fight, calling it a 'weird one' with too much volatility. He notes Rountree is inconsistent and Daukaus is moving down in weight after three bad knockout losses. He doesn't want to speak on it further and says he has nothing to say.

"I don't really have a big opinion about this one... anything can happen."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Rountree is on a winning streak and has improved his confidence and aggressiveness. He is dangerous on the feet and should keep the fight upright. Daukaus is dropping to light heavyweight after three straight KO losses at heavyweight. Rountree has the power advantage and should knock him out. The fight not going to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rountree by KO
"I think that Roundtree will do a good enough job in terms of keeping this fight upright and utilizing his Superior striking to eventually find the chin of darkest and put him all clean here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Paul picked Daukaus at plus 182 two weeks ago and is confident in the move to light heavyweight. He believes Daukaus' speed and power from heavyweight will translate well, and that he has a significant grappling advantage if he chooses to use it. He notes Rountree's poor ground game and thinks Daukaus can get the fight to the mat and finish. He also mentions the submission prop at 20-1 that got smashed down to 8-1.

Bet Daukaus at +182 two weeks ago; mentions Daukaus by submission prop at 20-1 (opened), now 8-1
"I took him out like plus 182 like two weeks ago like basically as soon as the number opened I was just like I think he's at least live"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. over Chris Daukaus, stating Daukaus was never good at heavyweight and is moving down to a higher skill division. He criticizes Daukaus's poor distance management and notes he has been brutally finished three times in a row. He predicts Rountree will KO Daukaus in round one.

KO in round one
"I'm going with a little round tree over Chris Dorcas"
WIN vs Dustin Jacoby
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 120 of 255 47% 122 of 257 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Dustin Jacoby 0 85 of 237 35% 88 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 34 of 66 51% 35 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dustin Jacoby 0 20 of 57 35% 22 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 39 of 105 37% 40 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Dustin Jacoby 0 35 of 88 39% 36 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 47 of 84 55% 47 of 84 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dustin Jacoby 0 30 of 92 32% 30 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 120 of 255 47% 69 of 194 27 of 34 24 of 27 116 of 250 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 85 of 237 35% 49 of 193 18 of 23 18 of 21 80 of 231 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 34 of 66 51% 12 of 38 12 of 16 10 of 12 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 20 of 57 35% 11 of 44 3 of 4 6 of 9 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 39 of 105 37% 30 of 93 5 of 7 4 of 5 39 of 105 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 35 of 88 39% 20 of 72 7 of 8 8 of 8 35 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 47 of 84 55% 27 of 63 10 of 11 10 of 10 43 of 79 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 30 of 92 32% 18 of 77 8 of 11 4 of 4 26 of 88 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by knockout, but admits it's a tough fight to call due to Rountree's inconsistency. He notes that if the best version of Rountree shows up, he can knock out Jacoby, who has been dropped before. He mentions the smaller cage favors Rountree's pressure. However, he acknowledges that Jacoby is the better striker and could easily outpoint Rountree if the inconsistent version appears.

Rountree wins by knockout
"give me round three to pull off the upset and knock out Dustin Jacoby in this matchup"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his Glory kickboxing experience, superior cardio, and technical striking. He notes that Jacoby has shown durability (surviving knockdowns against Max Grisham) and should win on volume if he doesn't get knocked out. Cody acknowledges Khalil Rountree's power and potential but believes Jacoby's kickboxing skills will prevail in a 15-minute striking battle.

"I mean that practical fight kind of leaves me to believe that like Jacoby at -160 doesn't seem like a Bad Bet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his consistency, kickboxing experience (Glory), and titanium plate in his forearm that adds power. He acknowledges Khalil Rountree's knockout power and inconsistency, but trusts Jacoby's process. He is not betting due to the risk of Rountree's power, but picks Jacoby to win.

"Give me Jacoby For the Win not interested in betting it but my pick will be Jacoby."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacob is confident in Dustin Jacoby, calling him a real deal striker with great kickboxing. He acknowledges Rountree's power and inconsistency but believes technique wins. Jacoby can defend takedowns and should outpoint Rountree, though he admits bias.

"my official pick for this matchup is my dude Dustin Jacoby"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby's disciplined striking, footwork, and distance management will neutralize Rountree's power. Rountree's confidence is high but he struggles against technical strikers. Jacoby has more paths to victory and should win a decision. A small one-unit bet on Jacoby is recommended.

Jacoby by decision
"I like the favorite here I think it's a perfectly priced fight I don't mind a small shot here on uh Jacoby to even just win one unit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Paul is tempted by Khalil Rountree as a plus-money underdog, noting his sheer power and aggression. He mentions that when Rountree is in shape and motivated (as seen against Modestas Bukauskas and Karl Roberson), he can be dangerous. Paul says he needs to see the weigh-ins and dig into Rountree's personal life before deciding, but considers Rountree the most live underdog on the card.

"I'm super nervous on this one like uh in terms of which Underdog have we talked about so far that I would like the most is cool around tree listen if you're gonna give him plus money with what he …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby over Khalil Rountree, noting that Rountree's wins are against low-level opponents and he lost to Marcin Prachnio, who Jacoby should outperform. He highlights Jacoby's kickboxing credentials, reach, and chin, and believes Jacoby will fight on the outside, avoid Rountree's power, and win by 30-27 decision. He expects Rountree to have moments but fade.

"I'm gonna go if Dustin Jacob be winning this fight by a 30-27 decision"
WIN vs Karl Roberson
TKO (body kick and punches) R2 0:25 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 2 26 of 69 37% 26 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Karl Roberson 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 18 of 54 33% 18 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karl Roberson 0 17 of 27 62% 17 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 2 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Karl Roberson 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 26 of 69 37% 16 of 53 5 of 9 5 of 7 17 of 55 5 of 7 4 of 7
Karl Roberson 17 of 28 60% 4 of 10 6 of 9 7 of 9 16 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 18 of 54 33% 10 of 41 3 of 6 5 of 7 14 of 48 4 of 6 0 of 0
Karl Roberson 17 of 27 62% 4 of 9 6 of 9 7 of 9 16 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 8 of 15 53% 6 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 4 of 7
Karl Roberson 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Karl Roberson

Angelo gives a slight edge to Karl Roberson because he believes Roberson can hang in the striking and has a clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes that the skill gap on the ground is wider than on the feet, favoring Roberson. However, he acknowledges that Khalil Rountree is a very good striker and could knock Roberson out at any moment.

"i am giving the slight edge to roberson here because i think he can hang in the striking and there is a clear path to victory him for him with the takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karl Roberson

Big Brady picks Karl Roberson to win by third-round submission. He notes Roberson has never been knocked out and has underrated grappling, despite being submitted by elite grapplers. He points out that Rountree has zero takedowns in 11 UFC fights, so Roberson will likely keep the fight standing where he is the better striker. He also thinks Roberson can mix in takedowns and submit Rountree, who has poor takedown defense (50%). He expects Roberson to out-strike Rountree for two rounds then get a submission in the third.

third round submission
"i'm gonna say he wins this fight by like a third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Cody leans Rountree, citing his durability, power, and pressure. He notes Roberson's ground game is weak but Rountree won't exploit it. He sees it as a striking battle where Rountree's forward pressure and power give him the edge.

"i just think i'm going to go with durability towards khalil roundtree power towards kill roundtree"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Daniel Levi leans with Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his speed advantage and the fact that when Rountree is mentally on and there's no takedown threat, he can be a serious problem. He notes that both fighters have been flaky and can't be fully trusted, but Rountree's speed gives him the edge. Levi acknowledges that Karl Roberson might be tougher but thinks Rountree's speed is the difference.

"i'm going to lean with khalil roundtree with the speed advantage here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karl Roberson

Roberson is seen as the more technical striker with a better overall MMA game, including grappling and clinch work. He can nullify Rountree's early power and then chip away with kicks and takedowns. Rountree has been inconsistent, with losses to Prachnio and Cutelaba. Roberson is expected to win via decision, using a grapple-heavy game plan.

Decision line for Roberson at plus 300 is mentioned as intriguing; submission line also noted.
"I think Roberson is the side here. I'm not 100% sold on him yet though, but I do think he is the side."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Paul has no clear pick, calling it a dogger pass. He notes both fighters have moments but he doesn't trust either. He mentions Rountree's inconsistency and Roberson's cancellations.

"this one's more of a dogger pass to me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. over Karl Roberson, expecting a stand-up contest. He believes Rountree has a big advantage on the feet and will pull the trigger more than in his last fight. He predicts a KO in round two, as Rountree lands powerful shots and gains respect. He notes that Roberson has shown some grappling ability but doesn't think it will be enough to stop Rountree.

KO round 2
"i'm going to go with khalil roundtree here i think he's big enough strong enough to stop the grappling of carl roberson"
TKO (leg kick) R2 2:30 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 23 of 49 46% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Modestas Bukauskas 1 38 of 92 41% 38 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Modestas Bukauskas 0 28 of 65 43% 28 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Modestas Bukauskas 1 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 23 of 49 46% 18 of 44 3 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 38 of 92 41% 18 of 71 7 of 8 13 of 13 38 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 18 of 36 50% 13 of 31 3 of 3 2 of 2 17 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 28 of 65 43% 15 of 52 6 of 6 7 of 7 28 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 10 of 27 37% 3 of 19 1 of 2 6 of 6 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Khalil Rountree

Round 1
A light heavyweight brawl should excite fans in this next one, when Bukauskas (11-4, 1-2 UFC) and Rountree (8-5, 1 NC; 4-5, 1 NC UFC) vie for a .500 record inside the Octagon. Something’s gotta give, and referee Herb Dean has been assigned to keep things up on the up-and-up. The gloves are not touched, and the hands are about to be traded. Bukauskas is the first to throw a strike, and Rountree prepares a big right hand counter. Rountree catches Bukauskas backing up, snapping his head back with a left hand. Rountree already knows he has his man hurt, and he starts smashing his fists into Bukauskas’ face. Rountree chases him into the wall, unloads on him, and Bukauskas runs away. This happens a few more times, with Rountree aggressively throwing deadly powerful blows that knock Bukauskas around the cage. Bukauskas’ eyes are wide open as Rountree stalks him down with murder in his eyes, and the huge punches have shattered the Lithuanian’s nose. Rountree does not recklessly pursue a finish, instead marching him down with hammers. Bukauskas tries to keep him backed off with a jab, but Rountree pounces with power punches to the busted nose and body. The American plods ahead, sizing up his strikes and waiting for openings to drop bombs. As Bukauskas gets his wits about him after every damaging blow, the onslaught of Rountree begins to slow. Rountree ends a combination with a thudding leg kick, and he stings Bukauskas again with a right hand. Bukauskas tries to step in to throw back, but Rountree snipes him on the way in. Bukauskas swipes out with a left hook, and Dean is quick to warn him for outstretched fingers. Rountree follows him with a slapping leg kick, and another right hand forces blood to splatter out of Bukauskas’ nose. “The Baltic Gladiator” goes up high with a kick, and when it is blocked, Rountree slams his foot in the thigh. A large welt has formed on the top of Bukauskas’ thigh from the kicks, and Rountree lays into him with a final combination that makes Bukauskas turn around. He cannot finish the job, and Bukauskas survives the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rountree

Round 2
Rountree takes the center of the cage, ready to unload with a big right hand, and the two nearly connect with these blows. When they come up short, Rountree chops at the swelling leg like he were a 2021 Pedro Rizzo. The kicks have actually drawn blood on the thigh, but Bukauskas pays it no mind as he tries to bounce himself off the fence. Rountree marches on, landing a punch to send Bukauskas careening towards the cage wall. Bukauskas gathers his thoughts and tries to figure out a way to land a jab or some meaningful offense, as Rountree kicks at that bloody spot on the leg and a right hand to follow. Bukauskas strikes back, but Rountree shrugs it off, lands a kick to the knee and then lifts his leg up several times like a muay Thai fighter.
Bukauskas lunges forward with his lead leg planted, and Rountree times it perfectly by stomping it with a short side kick that sends Bukauskas falling down to the canvas screaming.
The fight is immediately over and Rountree knows his work here is done, and Dean runs over to attend to the fallen fighter. After several minutes of medical attention, Bukauskas receives a leg brace and is helped to his feet and out of the cage. In the post-fight interview, commentator Michael Bisping remarks that the doctor informed him that multiple ligaments for Bukauskas are likely shredded.

The Official Result
Khalil Rountree def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 2:30 via TKO (Leg Kick)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree to win by first-round knockout, but with low confidence due to Rountree's inconsistency. He notes Rountree has tremendous power but sometimes fails to show up (e.g., loss to Marcin Prachnio). Bukauskas is hittable (50% striking defense) and chinny, making him a good target for Rountree's power. However, Brady is not betting Rountree because of the unpredictability.

"i think i'm going to take roundtree to knock out modesto bukowskis in the fir in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Cody picks Bukauskas but suggests waiting for a live line after the first round. He notes Rountree's power and first-round threat, but thinks Bukauskas has better cardio and reach, and can survive the initial onslaught. He expects Bukauskas to take over in later rounds if he survives round one.

Live bet on Bukauskas after round 1
"my official play is i am going to take the justice for caucus however you're going to probably be able to get a way better price tag if he's able to survive the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

I don't trust Rountree in a fight that goes long because his cardio fades, but he's dangerous early with fast hands and hard kicks. Bukauskas has a shaky chin and is hittable. Rountree's knockdown rate is about 4.5%, and most of his wins come in round one. I think there's a 25-30% chance he puts Bukauskas out early. The plus 500 on Rountree round one is good value. I'm not betting the moneyline because if it goes to decision, Bukauskas likely wins.

Khalil Rountree Jr. round 1 +500
"I like Khalil round one plus 500... I think there's a pretty strong chance he's gonna put him out early."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul is uncertain, calling it a landmine fight. He notes Rountree's inconsistency and Bukauskas's defensive issues. He mentions Rountree by KO at +250 as a possible play but doesn't commit to a pick.

Rountree by KO (+250)
"if you're going to bet round tree i think uh draftking sports book roundtree by ko plus 250 would be the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by decision. He questions Khalil Rountree's hunger after his performance against Marcin Prachnio, where Rountree seemed to lack drive. He believes Bukauskas, who trained with Jon Jones at Jackson Wink, has more desire and will out-volume Rountree with punches at range, mixing in grappling to gas Rountree out.

"i'm going to go with modestas pikowskas here um over khalil roundtree junior"