Career Averages - Santiago Ponzinibbio
Career Averages - Sean Strickland
Santiago Ponzinibbio - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 49 of 111 | 44% | 50 of 115 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 66 of 166 | 39% | 70 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 28 of 64 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 49 of 111 | 44% | 31 of 83 | 6 of 16 | 12 of 12 | 49 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 66 of 166 | 39% | 39 of 131 | 20 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 64 of 164 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 35 | 42% | 5 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 35 of 81 | 43% | 20 of 61 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 60 | 45% | 21 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 22 of 63 | 34% | 13 of 53 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and apply forward pressure. He notes that Ponzinibbio tends to get busted up and that Rodriguez can take over after the first round. He also mentions a potential over 1.5 rounds bet if available.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Daniel Rodriguez in a close fight between two aging fighters. He notes that Ponzinibbio's durability is questionable, as he wobbles when hit, while Rodriguez has better volume and durability at this stage. However, both are 38 and have looked rough recently. Brady expects a competitive fight that goes the distance, with judges likely favoring Rodriguez based on optics.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Ponzinibbio's power and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez is a slow starter and a slow mover, making it unlikely he can hurt Ponzinibbio consistently. Connor points out that Ponzinibbio has retained his ability to knock people out even when fights are going poorly, while Rodriguez's offense has diminished.
Ponzinibbio has slowed and his durability is a concern, but Rodriguez doesn't have the power to exploit that. Ponzinibbio will dictate the pace, land more impactful shots, and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, describing him as a lifelong martial artist who is more well-rounded than Daniel Rodriguez, whom he calls a 'street dude with hands.' He believes Ponzinibbio will win a decision by getting takedowns at the end of rounds to sway judges. He notes that Rodriguez has declined due to injuries and poor grappling decisions.
Zane picks Ponzinibbio, noting that despite his decline, he retains a clear process of pressure boxing and fight-changing power. He contrasts this with Rodriguez, who is slower and less sharp as a counterpuncher. Zane expects Ponzinibbio to start slow but take over by round three, swarming Rodriguez with combinations. He believes Rodriguez lacks the offensive potential to put Ponzinibbio away and will be outworked.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 76 of 175 | 43% | 76 of 175 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Carlston Harris | 1 | 73 of 196 | 37% | 78 of 211 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlston Harris | 1 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 37 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 70 | 38% | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 28 of 86 | 32% | 28 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 76 of 175 | 43% | 57 of 151 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 13 | 72 of 165 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Carlston Harris | 73 of 196 | 37% | 40 of 142 | 19 of 39 | 14 of 15 | 73 of 195 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 22 of 48 | 45% | 13 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlston Harris | 37 of 79 | 46% | 20 of 51 | 8 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 70 | 38% | 21 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlston Harris | 28 of 86 | 32% | 15 of 66 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 57 | 47% | 23 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Carlston Harris | 8 of 31 | 25% | 5 of 25 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In the co-headlining spot, two action welterweights throw down with aspirations of making one last run in a division unkind to the elderly. At the age of 38, Ponzinibbio (29-8, 11-7 UFC) knows his back is against the wall, and four losses in his last five fights do not help his case. Harris (19-6, 4-2 UFC), at 37, is not in as dire of a roster situation, but his chin was checked by Kalinn Williams last year in a gnarly way. The exciting combatants will collide as referee Kerry Hatley watches on, aware that this one could end with one concussive blow. There is a glove touch first, and Ponzinibbio stalks down the taller man early on. Harris tries to use his range to jab out and keep Ponzinibbio away, and he kicks at the front leg as well. Ponzinibbio jabs him back, brushing past a left hook to rifle off a one-two on the chin. Ponzinibbio goes to the body with another one-two, and Harris hops back and forth while kicking the plant leg again. Ponzinibbio connects at the end of a right hand, and Harris counters well enough to make Ponzinibbio reset. Harris jabs to the head and midsection, and his right hook brushes the waist. When Ponzinibbio sells out for a hook, Harris shoots even lower for a takedown, but the effort is for naught as he is completely shut down. Ponzinibbio further backs him away with a one-two and a low kick, and he blocks the head kick that zips at his melon. Harris gets off a short left hook to the ribs, and he aims another to the same spot. Ponzinibbio sways and moves, evading the worst of the strikes and lobbing big right hands back at the lankier man. They clash legs together when kicking, and Ponzinibbio scores and takes fire as they trade leather. A one-two from Ponzinibbio leads to a takedown effort from “Mocambique,” but Harris still cannot get him down. Instead, it is the power left from Harris that gets Ponzinibbio’s attention, staggering the fighter from Argentina after a blitz. Harris lobs a big right hand that puts Ponzinibbio to the ground, and he somehow opens a cut on the back of Ponzinibbio’s head wrapping the strike around him. Harris drills Ponzinibbio with a one-two that sets him down, and Ponzinibbio scrambles and gets to his feet. A kick from Harris nearly puts Ponzinibbio down again, and he gets up and clutches the back of his head as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Harris
Round 2
The welterweights touch ‘em up, with Ponzinibbio appearing to have his feet beneath him again. Harris does not blitz him, instead jabbing to the body and measuring with his clubbing left hook head of winding it up. Ponzinibbio works the front leg twice to turn Harris about, and he sways away from a hook aimed his direction. Ponzinibbio walks through a low kick to put two punches on Harris’ chin, and Harris tanks them and responds in kind. Ponzinibbio blazes out with a one-two, and the right side of Harris’ face is bloodied up and swelling from absorbing strikes. Harris ducks a big left hand, and a jab draws blood from his mouth. The Argentinian doubles up on a jab and follows with a right that gets Harris’ attention, and Harris shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Harris digs an uppercut to the body when Ponzinibbio bends over, and Ponzinibbio clubs him back with an overhand right. Splitting the guard with a right hand, Ponzinibbio gets through, but Harris knocks him back and then drops him with a jab. Ponzinibbio bounces up to his feet as if he had springs in his shorts, and he gets right in Harris’ face to keep throwing hands. Harris uses his longer range to chew up Ponzinibbio from his own preferred distance, and a leg kick from Harris disrupts Ponzinibbio’s movement briefly. Because of this, Ponzinibbio winds up and misses with a right hand, and he is in the wrong spot when Harris catches him with a right hook over the top. Harris digs to lefts to the liver to follow, and Ponzinibbio goes to the sternum with a left hand. They trade hooks at the same time, and their chins hold up even though they are taking massive damage at this point. Harris kicks, his foot is caught, and he still loops a left hand at his man. Ponzinibbio swings back with a vengeance, and Harris’ jab keeps him honest. Ponzinibbio comes up short with a one-two, and the horn sounds at matching lands.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Round 3
To the surprise of some, the fighters have reached the third round, and they high-five to celebrate their handiwork. Harris commences the round with a tackling takedown effort, and Ponzinibbio pitches him out of the way like a farmer tossing sacks of grain around. Harris rolls to his back and welcomes Ponzinibbio into the guard, and he forces a scramble that allows him to fight to his feet. They resets in kickboxing range, with Ponzinibbio loading up on right hands as he chases after Harris. Harris lets loose with a right hand that buzzes past his target, and both men land cleanly with power. Harris jabs the body and absorbs a one-two to the chest, and he slips when advancing but does not lose his footing. Harris doubles up on body shots with his left hook, and he kicks the same spot. Ponzinibbio scores with a big left and a heavy right, rocking Harris badly. Harris wobbles back, absorbing another fierce right hand on the jaw, and he is somehow on his feet despite getting blasted. Ponzinibbio unloads everything he has, setting Harris down, and Harris tries to engage his grappling as a safety valve. Ponzinibbio wants nothing to do with it and backs off to let Harris up, and he connects with looping lethal strikes. Harris gets rocked from one side of the cage to the other, but he is still in the fight and swings back with reckless abandon.
Ponzinibbio sets him down to a knee with a clubbing power shot, and Hatley rushes forward but pulls back before stopping the fight. Harris stands back up and lets his hands go, and during an exchange, Hatley inexplicably gets between them to stop the fight and save Harris from further punishment.
Harris is understandably upset because even though he took massive damage and was on baby deer legs, he was engaging and striking his opponent. Like the odd stoppage in the Curtis fight, the protests from the losing fighter fall on deaf ears. Ponzinibbio leaps out of the cage to high-five the commentary booth, and Harris quickly regains his cool and is all smiles after an uproarious battle.
The Official Result
Santiago Ponzinibbio def. Carlston Harris R3 3:13 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, citing his speed, cleaner striking, and better cardio. He notes that Carlston Harris has more power and aggressive grappling, but believes Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure will win. He expresses concern about Ponzinibbio's commentating job potentially distracting him, but still picks him. He mentions Ponzinibbio was an underdog but may flip to favorite.
Big Brady likes Harris's grappling advantage, noting his elite submission game and front chokes. He thinks Ponzinibbio's chin is declining, having been knocked out by the Leech and Kevin Holland. He believes Harris has more ways to win, either by submission or a club-and-sub. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop, as both guys have poor durability and can finish each other.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio despite his recent 2-5 record, arguing that Harris is also flawed with poor takedown accuracy and stiff striking. He believes Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy, range, and power will allow him to land first. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a knockout.
Connor picks Ponzinibbio because Harris is fundamentally bad at MMA, relying on wild aggression and grappling without structure. Ponzinibbio is a good defensive wrestler and strong in the clinch, and his straight punches and footwork make him difficult to clinch against. While Ponzinibbio is older and slower, he still has a process and toughness, and his losses have come against sharp strikers, not wild punchers like Harris. Connor notes that if Ponzinibbio loses, it would be his worst loss since 2011.
Daniel notes both fighters are washed up and chinny, but historically Ponzinibbio was one fight away from a title shot and has better credentials. He thinks Ponzinibbio's experience and jab/straight right will be enough, though he's not confident. He mentions Harris has dangerous front chokes but Ponzinibbio rarely shoots. He picks Ponzinibbio to win and retire.
Lucrative James gives a lean toward Santiago Ponzinibbio, but admits he hasn't done extensive research. He believes Ponzinibbio is the better striker and can defend takedowns, while Harris's best chance is an early knockout. He predicts a decision win for Ponzinibbio in a lackluster fight. He cautions that this is an early read and he may not bet it.
Ponzinibbio's technical striking should allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a knockout, but he must be wary of Harris's big power and reckless swinging. As long as Ponzinibbio's speed hasn't diminished, he should find openings to put Harris away.
Paul leans toward Harris as a slight plus-money underdog, citing Ponzinibbio's age and damage absorbed. He notes Harris's crafty submission game and power, but admits both are flawed. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.
The Guru picks Ponzinibbio despite questioning why this is a co-main event. He notes Ponzinibbio's split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov and leg kicks against Holland, and his win over Alex Morono. He contrasts Harris's inactivity, age (37), and KO loss to Chaos Williams. He acknowledges Ponzinibbio's recent chinny reputation but thinks he's good enough to beat Harris.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ponzinibbio has not lost his innate understanding of how to fight and is still tough. He points out that Ponzinibbio's recent losses are to elite fighters, and he has competed well against fringe contenders. Harris, despite being a natural athlete, has poor technique and has never been that good. Zane also mentions that Ponzinibbio's pattern of slow starts and strong finishes could be a factor, but Harris is unlikely to capitalize early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 41 of 117 | 35% | 42 of 118 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 46 of 121 | 38% | 69 of 146 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 14 of 43 | 32% | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 16 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 16 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 12 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 41 of 117 | 35% | 31 of 102 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 40 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 46 of 121 | 38% | 20 of 87 | 20 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 45 of 120 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 14 of 43 | 32% | 9 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 17 of 37 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 16 of 45 | 35% | 13 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 14 of 48 | 29% | 7 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 11 of 29 | 37% | 9 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 36 | 41% | 6 of 23 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-205), Salikhov (+170)
Round 1
From one pair of knockout artists to another we go, this time in the welterweight division. The co-main event presents powerful Argentinian Ponzinibbio (29-7, 11-6 UFC) against the self-proclaimed “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (19-5, 6-4 UFC), and both men celebrate the majority of their victories via strikes. Unfortunately for the aging 170ers, they have each gone 1-3 in their last four, so a win would mean keeping things going while a defeat might push them closer towards the end. Referee Dan Miragliotta will be the third man in the Octagon, and he steps back as the heavy hitters touch ‘em up. Ponzinibbio pushes the pace early, jabbing his way forward only to get pushed back by a front kick. Salikhov delivers a solid kick to the body as he shifts to the side, and he lands one on the lead leg and has a head kick blocked right after. Ponzinibbio whiffs on a low kick, and Salikhov leaps at him with a left hook that grazes the jaw. Salikhov tries that strike again, and Ponzinibbio sees it coming and parries it, following with a high kick. Salikhov blocks it and gives him one back, and that too bounces off the guard. Salikhov lands a body kick backing up, and he cannot get away from a jab to his ribs. Salikhov spins with no telegraphing and has it ricochet off the shoulder, and he bursts his way into a short combo of punches. Ponzinibbio lands with two of three punches on his way forward, catching the Russian and bullying him back to the wire. Ponzinibbio lands a calf kick and protects his mug from an overhand right, and he ducks a spinning back fist and stumbles—not from absorbing the blow, but from dodging it. Ponzinibbio wags his finger to signal the strike did not land, and he recovers and stays evasive to not get caught with subsequent strikes from the “King of Kung Fu.” Salikhov connects with a left hand, and Ponzinibbio counters and drops Salikhov. The Russian gets back to his feet, and Ponzinibbio is marching him down winding up with serious power. Salikhov drives him back with a solid uppercut, but not before a cut opens up on the inner eyebrow. Both men appear to slip on the canvas surface but not because of damage, and they race at one another to trade. Salikhov lands a heavy right hand, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Round 2
The fighters clap hands to begin the second stanza, and Salikhov takes two attempts to blitz forward and pulls back each time. He then spins with a wheel kick that buzzes past the jaw, and he keeps spinning, this time with a back fist. Ponzinibbio backs him away with a few jabs and a head kick, and he pushes aside a front kick to wing a right hand. Salikhov scores two left hooks before spinning with a back kick to the ribs, and Ponzinibbio no-sells it and tries to respond with a left. Salikhov has another spin broken up when Ponzinibbio rushes him, and they bounce off one another and reset. Salikhov jabs out with his toes outstretched, and they tag one another with punches. Ponzinibbio appears to get the worse of a left hand, and Salikhov gives chase and swarms him with big punches. Ponzinibbio absorbs a spinning wheel kick, where even while blocked it further staggers him. Ponzinibbio rebounds off the fencing and finds his footing again, and he swings his way forward to close the distance and stay out of kicking range. Salikhov responds with a looping right hook that does not connect and a low kick that does. Salikhov tries another wheel kick, but Ponzinibbio is wise to it and gets up close and personal. The Russian allows him to do this so he can time an uppercut, and he plants the ball of his foot on Ponzinibbio’s sternum for good measure. Ponzinibbio drives home a one-two, and Salikhov trips him up with a takedown effort. Salikhov cannot keep him down, and they return upright to trade hands. The Argentinian fighter swings inaccurately with two hooks, and his foe answers him with a front kick and a leaping punch. Salikhov has a left hook parried, and he jumps forward with a second that is ducked. Spinning with a kick to the body, Salikhov lands the strike but finds himself on his seat a moment later when Ponzinibbio surprises him with a takedown. Ponzinibbio hangs on until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bro-hug to commence the last round, and strikes are soon to follow. Salikhov lands a swiping left hook and hops back to avoid a low kick, and the Argentinian ducks to avoid a second. Salikhov spams front kicks, and Ponzinibbio lets fly a right hook that bangs into the temple. Salikhov wears it well and is jabbed back by subsequent strikes, but he gathers steam and marches forward landing a front kick. Both fighters trade hooks, and Salikhov dodges a leg kick and spins with a wheel kick that does not connect. A trio of punches from the Russian do not find their home, and he whips a left hook that grazes the top of his foe’s head. Ponzinibbio rushes after him with a pair of punches and is pushed back by a teep kick, only to crash the pocket and push “King of Kung Fu” to the cage wall. Salikhov breaks away and strafes one direction and then the other, and he has a telegraphed left hook miss the mark by a wide margin. Ponzinibbio attempts a single that is easily stopped, although he does manage to put Salikhov against the cage wall. A second attempt manages to bring Salikhov to his knees, and he drapes himself over Salikhov while keeping him on a single knee. Salikhov takes a seat, and Ponzinibbio thinks about moving around to take the back but decides instead to pursue top position. Ponzinibbio slows the fight to a crawl by holding the Russian down, and Salikhov sucks wind and tries with all his might to stand. He eventually gets back to his feet, and Ponzinibbio is dead set on getting that takedown again. The last try fails, and the close fight ends in a clinch while the crowd showers them with boos.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Santiago Ponzinibbio via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he will dominate the striking exchanges and that Muslim Salikhov will fade at elevation. He notes that both fighters are older and coming off losses, but Ponzinibbio's volume and range management should be key. He thinks the odds are too wide for a favorite and would only bet if the line moves to around -120.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant, noting both fighters are past their prime and have cardio issues at altitude. He thinks Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will outwork Salikhov, but fears Salikhov could land a big shot late. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
Daniel Vreeland picks Muslim Salikhov to upset Santiago Ponzinibbio. He believes Ponzinibbio has never been the same after a severe bacterial infection, losing speed and durability. He notes that both fighters are past their primes, but at the odds, he prefers the underdog Salikhov. He mentions that Ponzinibbio's recent performances have been poor, including a life-and-death fight with Miguel Baeza and knockout losses. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and goes with Salikhov.
Santiago Ponzinibbio is slightly favored. He is a bit faster and slicker with his shots. Durability is shaky on both sides, but Ponzinibbio's speed should allow him to land the first big shot and put Salikhov away. The line has dropped from -220 to -180, still a bit wide.
Paul picks Ponzinibbio but is cautious, citing Salikhov's power and cardio concerns for both. He believes Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will be key, but acknowledges the fight could end violently for either. He expects a competitive fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 66 of 197 | 33% | 67 of 198 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 44 of 104 | 42% | 44 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 29 of 70 | 41% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 23 of 78 | 29% | 24 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 1 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 66 of 197 | 33% | 24 of 138 | 11 of 23 | 31 of 36 | 62 of 187 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 4 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 44 of 104 | 42% | 12 of 58 | 7 of 19 | 25 of 27 | 44 of 101 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 29 of 70 | 41% | 7 of 41 | 6 of 12 | 16 of 17 | 27 of 63 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 3 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 13 of 38 | 34% | 2 of 20 | 2 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 23 of 78 | 29% | 11 of 61 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 22 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 43 | 34% | 4 of 26 | 4 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 14 of 49 | 28% | 6 of 36 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16 of 23 | 69% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-245), Ponzinibbio (+205)
Round 1
Since making his promotional debut in August 2018, “Trailblazer” Holland (23-9, 1 NC; 10-6, 1 NC UFC) has competed in the Octagon a whopping 17 times to date. His 18th outing will come in a striker’s delight against Argentine slugger Ponzinibbio (29-6, 11-5 UFC), and bonus money may be up for grabs here. Referee Dan Miragliotta is charged up for this welterweight clash, and he will be watching out to make sure he does not take an errant strike. Ready to have fun, the two bump fists, and Holland backs off to find his range. Holland, with eight inches to his advantage on his hands, uses his similarly lanky legs to push off. Ponzinibbio sits down on a chopping leg kick to slow the movement of Holland down, to which Holland responds with a left hook and a jab. Ponzinibbio attacks the lead leg again, and Holland fires off a jab and a body kick. Ponzinibbio checks a kick, and he attacks the right leg a few times after Holland switches stances. Holland swats out with a left, and he counters when Ponzinibbio crashes the pocket. A Holland jab makes Ponzinibbio slip when the latter throws out a low kick, and he climbs back up without concern. Holland chops at the front leg of the Argentine fighter, and it gets checked. Holland whips a kick up high that careens off the guard, and he blocks a body kick. Holland stays active with punches and kicks, and he shoulder rolls and retreats when Ponzinibbio gives chase. They clash legs at the same time, and Holland opens up with three calf kicks. Holland springs into action with a darting jab, and changes his stances instead of following up and getting countered. Ponzinibbio winds up with a few haymaker right hands, and when he misses, Holland starts talking to him. Ponzinibbio just misses with a right hook, and Holland able to narrowly evade them and block a counter left. Four punches allow Ponzinibbio to partially get through the guard, and Holland lifts his leg up after getting kicked. Holland throws kicks from body legs, and Ponzinibbio catches it and looks to slug it out. Holland releases a backfist that knocks Ponzinibbio clean off his feet, and he drops down a few punches to a downed Ponzinibbio until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
The welterweight clap hands to get the second round started, and Holland leads the dance and walks into a few leg kicks. “Trailblazer” sets up his jab, using his reach to back Ponzinibbio off. Holland sneaks in a low kick and blocks a high kick, and he just misses a huge left hand. Ponzinibbio steps in with an elbow, and he escapes before a counter finds him. Holland targets the knee wit ha stomp kick, and pushes off with the ball of his foot to the chest. Ponzinibbio misses the dome by a matter of inches with a huge left hand, and Holland kicks at him from both legs. Holland dips back to fire a left hand, and Ponzinibbio chew up his foe’s leg with kicks. The Texan walks his opponent down and absorbs a big right hand and a sweeping kick, and he swats out with a few lefts. Holland grins after dodging a huge left hand, and he takes a leg kick flush. Holland gets checked when kicking the calf, and Ponzinibbio catches another kick but is not back fisted this time. Ponzinibbio strings a few punches together, only for Holland to roll with them. Holland’s jab works well, and he keeps Ponzinibbio at bay but cannot stop the calf kicks. Holland stalks his opponent down, striking with front kicks and a right hand. Holland gets Ponzinibbio’s attention with a few right hands in a series, and Ponzinibbio clinches up with him to get his bearings. Holland allows this to knee his man in the jaw, and he pushes off to gain some space. Ponzinibbio swings with all his might with three looping punches, and Holland dodges all of them. Holland meets Ponzinibbio coming in with an elbow, and he makes Ponzinibbio hit nothing but air and looks to his imaginary watch to taunt his inaccurate opponent. The round ends after this motion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 3
Before the third round opens, Holland talks to someone outside of the cage. When it does, Holland reaches out to clap hands, and Ponzinibbio obliges him. Holland strikes first with a kick, and he chops at the lead calf and is answered with two back. “Trainblazer” flicks out a few jabs, and he blocks a winging left hook but does not defend against a brutal kick that destabilizes his balance. Holland loads up on a few right hands and kicks the thigh, and he jumps into punches while struggling to put weight on his left leg. Holland switches stances, and Ponzinibbio greets him with a high kick on that side. A kick from Holland appears to get Ponzinibbio’s attention, who slips, and Holland motions to make sure his opponent is ok. Ponzinibbio is good to go, and he winds up with a powerful kick to the calf. Holland grits it out and spins with a wheel kick, and Ponzinibbio plants his feet and throws bombs. Holland walks into a vicious kick that almost buckles his knees, and he tosses out a front kick to keep Ponzinibbio honest. “Argentina Dagger” fires a kick to the other lead leg, and he checks the ones that come back his way. Holland gets clubbed with a left, and he side kicks the body. Holland catches a low kick and rings the bell with a right hand, and Ponzinibbio hops back and is in trouble. Holland races after him, and he unloads a left hook that would knock down a heavyweight. Ponzinibbio falls down to the ground, face-first, and Holland belts him with one single follow-up blow before Miragliotta jumps in to wave off the faceplanting knockout. Knowing his work is done, Holland jumps out of the cage and rushes over to White and Trump, where he tells them that he has a broken right hand. He climbs back in the cage, and tells Ponzinibbio that kicking him hurt his own feet. In his post-fight interview, Holland says that if Jorge Masvidal does not retire after tonight, he would like to challenge for the “BMF” title.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Santiago Ponzinibbio R3 3:16 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland but is avoiding bets because he wants to see how Holland looks after the Wonder Boy loss. He notes that Holland is a good grappler and accurate striker, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Holland should win, but Ponzinibbio is a good technical striker who could make it tough.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, citing Holland's durability and Ponzinibbio's recent decline. He notes that Ponzinibbio was hurt multiple times by Alex Morono and knocked out by Li Jingliang. He predicts a second-round KO, but admits he doesn't fully trust Holland due to his low fight IQ.
Cody also picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant. He notes Holland's poor decision-making and the respect books give him, making the line too high. Cody points out Ponzinibbio's durability questions and age but sees value at +200. He mentions that Ponzinibbio is fighting in his backyard in Florida and that Holland's minus 235 price is disrespectful. Cody is not sure if he'll bet it but makes the pick for the show.
Connor picks Holland because Ponzinibbio has become a slow starter who gets hurt in every fight. Holland is fast, hits hard, and is fearless, so he will likely land a big shot early. Ponzinibbio may rally later, but his early deficits are too large to overcome. Connor notes that Holland's defense has deteriorated at welterweight, but his durability and confidence make him a tough out. He also mentions that Ponzinibbio's fragility is the real concern, as he gets hurt basically every fight now.
Jacob is confident in Kevin Holland, noting that the UFC gave him a winnable fight. He points out that Holland put Wonder Boy on skates in the first round, and if he lands those shots on Ponzinibbio, he will knock him out. He believes Holland is a better, longer, and more powerful striker, and will get the job done.
Holland has speed and power but is coming off a hand injury and fighting compromised. Ponzinibbio is slower post-layoff but still has veteran savvy and power. I think Holland's speed and power advantage will find Ponzinibbio's chin, but the hand injury is a major red flag. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision prop over betting Holland straight.
Paul takes Ponzinibbio as a plus-money underdog, though hesitantly. He notes Ponzinibbio is always competitive against top welterweights, with close split decisions against Jeff Neal and Michel Pereira. Paul criticizes Kevin Holland's poor fight IQ, referencing the Stephen Thompson fight where Holland let him up. He believes Ponzinibbio, training in Florida with the crowd behind him, has a real chance. However, he acknowledges Ponzinibbio is 36 and may have declined.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round TKO via straight right hand. He expects Ponzinibbio to have success early with leg kicks and jabs, but Holland will time a right hand as Ponzinibbio throws a kick, rocking him badly. He predicts Holland will finish with ground and pound in round two around the three-minute mark.
Zane picks Holland because Ponzinibbio starts slow and has become fragile. Holland will be aggressive and throw hammers, and Ponzinibbio won't be able to catch up early. Zane notes that Ponzinibbio can still rally and has diverse striking, but his early deficits are too much. He also mentions that Holland's gas tank and hand injury are concerns, but Ponzinibbio's inability to start fast is the deciding factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 66 of 155 | 42% | 66 of 155 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Alex Morono | 1 | 38 of 131 | 29% | 38 of 131 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 1 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 13 of 50 | 26% | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 66 of 155 | 42% | 31 of 99 | 26 of 47 | 9 of 9 | 65 of 153 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Alex Morono | 38 of 131 | 29% | 34 of 120 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 124 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 22 of 42 | 52% | 6 of 19 | 11 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 17 of 55 | 30% | 14 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 73 | 35% | 12 of 48 | 12 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 13 of 50 | 26% | 12 of 45 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18 of 40 | 45% | 13 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Alex Morono | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.
Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.
Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.
Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.
Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.
Zane picks Ponzinibbio, emphasizing his ability to rally back in fights and his power. He notes Morono's grit but says Ponzinibbio's sustained offense and punching power are a level above Morono's recent opponents. Zane is concerned about Morono's short notice but trusts Ponzinibbio's experience.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 105 of 220 | 47% | 106 of 221 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 110 of 216 | 50% | 110 of 216 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 35 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 55 of 115 | 47% | 55 of 115 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 51 of 101 | 50% | 51 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 105 of 220 | 47% | 78 of 185 | 13 of 18 | 14 of 17 | 103 of 217 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 110 of 216 | 50% | 52 of 143 | 42 of 56 | 16 of 17 | 108 of 214 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 24 of 45 | 53% | 9 of 27 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 34 of 66 | 51% | 26 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 35 of 70 | 50% | 14 of 44 | 17 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 55 of 115 | 47% | 44 of 100 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 54 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 51 of 101 | 50% | 29 of 72 | 13 of 20 | 9 of 9 | 50 of 100 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michel Pereira because he believes Pereira is better everywhere: more power, versatility, 100% takedown defense, and improved cardio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has good range control but Pereira's power and technique will overcome that. He expects Pereira to win a decision, his fourth in five fights.
Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, favoring his pressure style and superior cardio. He notes Ponzinibbio throws combinations and leg kicks, while Pereira prefers to stick on the outside and may struggle with pressure. He expects Ponzinibbio to break Pereira as the fight goes on and win a close decision.
Cody leans Pereira because he believes Ponzinibbio hasn't looked the same since his eye injury, citing close fights with Miguel Baeza and Geoff Neal where he was outlanded in significant strikes. He notes Pereira has improved his cardio and fight IQ, mixing in takedowns and pacing himself. He thinks Pereira's chin is better and that he can land a big shot or wrestle, making him the fresher fighter.
The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes that Pereira is a bigger welterweight and that Ponzinibbio is a legitimate 170-pounder. He questions whether Pereira's size will be a factor and mentions that Ponzinibbio's takedown defense should be good enough. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He says the line is perfectly accurate and both guys can win. He mentions Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure but notes he hasn't looked the same since his injury. He does not express a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he has the cardio and durability to outlast Michel Pereira. He thinks Pereira's KO power is not enough to finish Ponzinibbio and that Pereira will fade in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO for Ponzinibbio.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 85 of 161 | 52% | 86 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 91 of 229 | 39% | 91 of 229 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 26 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 46 of 73 | 63% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 39 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 85 of 161 | 52% | 73 of 145 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 85 of 161 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 91 of 229 | 39% | 62 of 195 | 12 of 17 | 17 of 17 | 90 of 228 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 20 of 41 | 48% | 13 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 63 | 41% | 17 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 19 of 47 | 40% | 16 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 73 | 35% | 15 of 61 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 46 of 73 | 63% | 44 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 39 of 93 | 41% | 30 of 80 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.
Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.
Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 121 of 270 | 44% | 122 of 271 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 104 of 249 | 41% | 104 of 249 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 52 | 28% | 15 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 47 of 107 | 43% | 47 of 107 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 59 of 111 | 53% | 60 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 38 of 110 | 34% | 38 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 121 of 270 | 44% | 98 of 245 | 12 of 13 | 11 of 12 | 121 of 270 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 104 of 249 | 41% | 36 of 166 | 24 of 34 | 44 of 49 | 104 of 249 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 52 | 28% | 12 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 39 of 73 | 53% | 11 of 43 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 20 | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 47 of 107 | 43% | 38 of 98 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 47 of 107 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 27 of 66 | 40% | 7 of 37 | 7 of 12 | 13 of 17 | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 59 of 111 | 53% | 48 of 100 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 38 of 110 | 34% | 18 of 86 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 38 of 110 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady questions whether Ponzinibbio is the same fighter after a long layoff and poor performance against Li Jingliang, where he looked hesitant and was outlanded. He notes Baeza is on the rise, improving each fight, though his competition has been weak. He believes Baeza hits hard and can knock out Ponzinibbio, who has been knocked out twice before. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Baeza by KO.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio as a dog, citing his experience and higher level of competition. He notes Baeza's striking is one-at-a-time and he hasn't faced anyone like Ponzinibbio. Cody is hesitant because Ponzinibbio looked bad against Li and has injury history, but he gives him one more chance. He thinks Ponzinibbio's physical strength and experience will be enough.
Daniel picks Baeza because he believes Ponzinibbio may never be the same after his health issues and three-year layoff. He notes that Baeza is a special prospect with big power, good left hook, calf kicks, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, training with Colby Covington. Daniel points out that Ponzinibbio looked slow and hesitant in his last fight against Li Jingliang, and his defensive flaws are now more exposed. He acknowledges that Ponzinibbio could look better with the ring rust gone, but the uncertainty leads him to favor Baeza, predicting a knockout.
Paul leans toward Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff and poor performance against Jingliang Li. He notes Ponzinibbio's suspect chin and low hands. Paul thinks Baeza's youth and power could be key, but acknowledges Ponzinibbio's experience. He is not confident and calls it a lean.
The Guru picks Miguel Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff due to injuries and his recent KO loss to Li Jingliang. He thinks Baeza has improved greatly, with good grappling, submissions, and striking IQ. He predicts Baeza will rock Ponzinibbio and finish by TKO in the first round, noting Ponzinibbio made technical mistakes against Li.
Sean Strickland - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 98 of 240 | 40% | 137 of 283 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 7:16 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 123 of 312 | 39% | 160 of 355 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 17 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:01 | |
| 3 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 29 of 89 | 32% | 29 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 43 of 100 | 43% | 43 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 37 of 72 | 51% | 45 of 80 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 34 of 86 | 39% | 38 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 28 of 63 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 31 of 88 | 35% | 38 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 98 of 240 | 40% | 52 of 163 | 35 of 65 | 11 of 12 | 96 of 237 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 123 of 312 | 39% | 118 of 302 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 119 of 306 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khamzat Chimaev | 10 of 19 | 52% | 5 of 11 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | |
| 3 | Khamzat Chimaev | 29 of 89 | 32% | 17 of 62 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 43 of 100 | 43% | 42 of 98 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 43 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Khamzat Chimaev | 37 of 72 | 51% | 20 of 49 | 11 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 34 of 86 | 39% | 33 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Khamzat Chimaev | 22 of 57 | 38% | 10 of 41 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 31 of 88 | 35% | 28 of 83 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-575), Strickland (+425)
Round 1
Champion Chimaev (15-0, 9-0 UFC) and former titleholder Strickland (30-7, 17-7 UFC) have proved they are a league of their own atop the middleweight division. Strickland jumped the line thanks to his dominant performance in February against Anthony Hernandez, and his trash talk has certainly sold the fight. Little more needs to be said other than that referee Herb Dean needs extra security in the cage to make sure there is not a fight before he authorizes it. If you had bet that these two would not touch gloves, shockingly you would be wrong. They touched gloves twice and spoke to one another about bringing their best or some such chatter. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev is smiling all the way into the fight, and their additional shared glove touch opens the match. Chimaev pushes forward and hits a takedown in the first 15 seconds. Strickland leans with his back on the wall while on the canvas, and he wrests his way to his feet but is mat returned and dumped on his hands a few times. Strickland keeps climbing to the side with Chimaev on his back, and Chimaev elects to take Strickland from behind and get both hooks in. Strickland keeps hold of Chimaev’s left wrist with both hands, and he sits up again to get to his knees. Chimaev leans on him with his whole body weight, wrenching Strickland down when Strickland partially stands. Chimaev hops on to take the back and rolls Strickland over, getting his back take again. Chimaev keeps one hook on the side rather than locking up a body triangle, with Strickland’s grasp on the wrists. Chimaev cannot set anything up from this position.
Strickland twists from side to side, and he turns over to recover while Chimaev is on him like a cheap suit. Strickland turns to get on a knee and post off, and Chimaev strips it away and holds on from behind. Chimaev tries to drag Strickland to his back again, and Strickland rolls over as he frantically attempts to improve his position. Chimaev steps into a high mount, landing once before Strickland can push him away. The champ lifts Strickland up and slams him down on the ground with emphasis, but it is his own nose who is bleeding on the bridge of it. Chimaev springs into action by attacking Strickland’s neck, going for a rear-naked choke he switches to a face crank. Strickland survives it all and makes it to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 2
The middleweights meander towards one another, and they again bump fists. Strickland starts striking, putting his jab in the champ’s face a few times. Chimaev winds up with a right hand, and Strickland rolls with it and gets his jab going a few more times. Chimaev hurls a big left, and Strickland answers him back with an overhand right. Chimaev slowly pressures forward, keeping his guard up to parry a few punches, but Strickland still catches him with a scooping right. Strickland puts a one-two on the cheek and uses his jab to maintain his preferred range. They both trade jabs, with Strickland looping a right hand around the guard. Chimaev bull-rushes his way forward, and Strickland rebounds off the fence to wind up in top control. The audience is practically electric when Strickland establishes himself on top, and he starts dropping down strikes.
Chimaev pushes off with a butterfly guard and brings his leg up to get out, and he works back to his feet. Strickland lets him up, lands a right hand and pushes Chimaev over when Chimaev fails on another takedown. Chimaev flops to his back, possibly injured or just fatigued, and Strickland walks over and punches him in the face. Strickland pounds on the champ with his free left hand, and “USA” chants echo so loudly in the arena that little else can be heard. Strickland shuts Chimaev down in half guard, smothering Chimaev’s mouth with his hand or otherwise flustering him with short but effective offense. Strickland does not sell out or go for broke on anything, instead riding out the round until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
There is a glove touch to resume the action, and both men start off with jabs. Chimaev lunges behind a jab with a right hand, and he whiffs on two subsequent punches. Jabs go flying from the middleweights, with Strickland doubling and tripling them up. Chimaev kicks both sides of the body, and he is met with a guard-piercing jab. Strickland takes a right hand on the chin and throws back with big power. Chimaev goes to the body with another kick, forcing Strickland to lower his right hand to protect his liver. This opens up more jabs from the champ, who is content to trade hands while slowly advancing. Strickland puts a one-two on the nose, wrapping a right hook around the guard as Chimaev motions for him to hit him more. Chimaev wings a left hand that Strickland evades by leaning back, and his right hand after it also misses the target as Strickland sways.
The challenger scores a heavy right hand, and his nose starts to leak a bit after absorbing swings from the Chechen. Chimaev stays in front of Strickland pushing out jabs, and fans start screaming “F--k you, Khamzat!” Strickland keeps his jab and two going, and when he lands it every now and then, Chimaev turns to the side to stick his tongue out at someone. Chimaev’s punches have bloodied up Strickland’s nose in a major way, and Strickland meets him with his own piston-like jab that has damaged his beak. Strickland shoulder-rolls the worst of the hurled hands coming his way, and he stumbles off-balance when dodging a right hand. Chimaev keeps after him, but he is taking shots. The close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The championship rounds are here again, and Chimaev lets out a hoot. They bump fists, and Chimaev admits his affection towards Strickland, telling him he loves him. Strickland does not budge, instead flashing his jab while Chimaev comes at him. Strickland lets off a kick to the side, and he snaps the head back as he keeps his jab in the champ’s face. Chimaev goes twice to the body, and Strickland headhunts him back. Chimaev winds up with a power right hand, shaking Strickland up with it but not hurting him. Strickland does not move out of first gear, with jabs plus twos his primary weapon. It is all upstairs, while Chimaev targets the body and lead leg a few times. Strickland clips Chimaev coming in, and he absorbs a harsh body kick that lands with an audible thud. Strickland drives a right hand through the guard, and Chimaev goads him on for more. Chimaev’s wide swings leave him open to straight punches from the challenger.
Chimaev jabs the body and loops a right hand up top, and the jabs have fully bloodied him up as well. Chimaev hurls a right hand, and Strickland backs up and bounds off the fencing to reset. Chimaev meets him on the reset and wings another right hand, with Strickland giving him pause in the form of a straight right hand. Chimaev kicks the body, and Strickland’s only target is the Chechen’s face. Chimaev remains active with all types of attacks, while Strickland still will not deviate with anything of note. Chimaev shoots in for a double and scoops Strickland off his feet, depositing him down to the canvas with gusto. Strickland moves to his knees to stand up, and Chimaev is behind him dragging him back down. Chimaev hangs from behind, kneeing the challenger a few times before the frame finishes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 5
It could be all tied up, or Chimaev could be ahead, going into the last round. They raise their hands to the crowd to lather them up a bit more, and then share a clap of hands to signal good sportsmanship. Chimaev springs after a takedown, landing it and grounding the challenger. Strickland explodes his way back up and puts his back to the wall, taking a look at the clock that reads 4:20 at the time. Chimaev’s mat return effort fails, with the two hitting the ground in 50-50 position with their elbows hooked. Strickland gets out of it first to stand, and Chimaev follows him and pulls him to the floor. Strickland gets out and frees himself, and he starts jabbing the champion again. Chimaev swings back with much heavier blows, but they are less accurate than the straight strikes offered by the man formerly known as “Tarzan.” Chimaev counters over the top with a right hand, and Strickland puts his fist on Chimaev’s nose a few times. Strickland freezes Chimaev for a second with a solid right hand, and Chimaev shakes it out to keep plodding forward.
Chimaev kicks the ribs as he moves forward, and he gets popped with a clean left. Strickland offers up his own front kick and a snapping jab, with Chimaev going to the body and a right hand up top. The overhand from Chimaev gets through, with Strickland now jabbing with both his left hand and the ball of his foot. Chimaev charges for a takedown with 80 seconds left, and Strickland posts off his arm to recover position and lean on the cage with one knee. Strickland stands, and Chimaev trips him up again. Chimaev tries to toss Strickland on his head, and he fails as the two split up with 30 seconds to go. Chimaev raises his hand in the air, and Strickland pegs him with straight punches. Chimaev goes all-out with a right hand, and Strickland rolls with it and flicks out a jab. Double jabs from Strickland allow him to avoid another looping punch, and he pushes out a few front kicks to stop Chimaev from reaching him as time expires. Buckle up, buckaroos, as we have gone the distance. Strickland motions the belt around his waist, expecting that he got the job done. The match was extremely loud and incredibly close, and both teams celebrate after 25 minutes of combat. The athletes share an embrace, appearing to squash their beef and dispose of any shared bad blood.
When the scores are announced, judges are clearly split in an indication that this may not be the last time these two meet. The crowd goes wild for the American, while Chimaev himself wraps the belt back around Strickland's waist. In a face turn, Strickland apologizes to fans of all religions, admitting he went too far when trying to sell the fight. Chimaev leaves the cage, not interested in a post-fight interview as his unblemished record is done like dinner. The newly minted champ thanks everyone for the support they gave him, and he celebrates bringing the middleweight title back to the U.S. The song “Real American” plays in the loudspeakers as Strickland leaves the cage, high-fiving and taking pictures with fans on the way out.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Khamzat Chimaev via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing his dominant wrestling and control. He believes Strickland's takedown defense (76%) won't be enough against Chimaev's elite level. He notes Chimaev's cardio looked fine in his 25-minute fight with DDP. He expects Chimaev to get takedowns and control each round, similar to Islam vs JDM. He mentions Strickland's conflicting training stories and thinks Chimaev's wrestling is too much.
Angelo is very confident in Khamzat Chimaev, stating that nobody has stood up on him and that his wrestling is too good. He dismisses arguments about Chimaev getting tired in the Gilbert Burns fight, noting it was at a different weight class years ago. He expects a dominant, possibly boring fight.
Big Brady confidently picks Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to wrestle and grapple. He notes Strickland's win over Fluffy Hernandez had an asterisk due to a poor game plan. Brady believes Chimaev will take down Strickland, take his back, and finish with a submission in the first round. He acknowledges Strickland could make it interesting if he survives the early rounds, but expects an early finish.
Cody picks Chimaev, citing his superior wrestling and ability to take Strickland down early. He notes Chimaev's improved pacing and control, as seen against Whittaker and Du Plessis, and believes he can neutralize Strickland's jab and volume striking. Cody expects Chimaev to win by decision, as Strickland is durable and hard to submit, but he also mentions live betting Strickland in later rounds if Chimaev tires.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing Chimaev's wrestling is the best in MMA history as a takedown artist, better than Khabib or Islam. He notes Strickland's mental fragility when pressured, and that Chimaev can wrestle for five rounds as shown against Dricus. Connor sees Strickland's only path as winning late rounds if Chimaev gasses, but doubts Strickland can rally convincingly.
Daniel believes Chimaev's relentless wrestling and takedown pressure will be too much for Strickland, especially in the early rounds. He notes that Chimaev is a different level of wrestler compared to Fluffy Hernandez, who only attempted one takedown against Strickland. Daniel expects Chimaev to get takedowns and wear Strickland down, though he acknowledges Strickland has a chance if it goes to championship rounds.
The host does not make a pre-fight bet on this fight. He considers Chimaev unplayable at 1.17 odds and notes that Strickland is a live underdog but has a tendency to be passive. He prefers to live bet this fight, watching how much energy Chimaev exerts early. He mentions that if Strickland starts fast and makes Chimaev work, he could win rounds 4 and 5, but he doesn't commit to a pick.
Predicted method: Submission Round 2. Chimaev remains undefeated with dominant wins over top competition, including a submission of Robert Whittaker and a decision over Dricus du Plessis. His relentless wrestling and 5.29 takedowns per round will be a nightmare for Strickland, who has only 76% takedown defense and struggles against pressure grapplers. Strickland's high-volume striking (6.04 SLpM) is effective, but he lacks the power to deter Chimaev's takedowns. Expect Chimaev to secure takedowns early, control the fight, and eventually find a submission or win a clear decision.
Jacob is confident in Chimaev, expecting him to be more aggressive now that he has the belt. He thinks Chimaev will finish Strickland early, similar to the Whittaker fight, and that Strickland's scrambling will lead to mistakes. He notes that Chimaev was tapping Strickland in training.
Lucrative James believes Khamzat Chimaev is a generational talent and one of the greatest fighters ever. He argues that Chimaev's early storm of wrestling and grappling will be too much for Strickland, who has been tapped by Chimaev in training. He predicts Chimaev will submit Strickland in round two, as Strickland's better takedown defense will lead to giving up his back. He notes Strickland's elite anti-grappling but thinks Chimaev's skill set is superior.
The host picks Chimaev by submission in rounds 1-2, citing his grappling dominance and Strickland's defensive grappling vulnerabilities. He believes Chimaev will come out hungry and get an early takedown, eventually forcing a tap. He notes that if it goes later, Strickland could scramble, but expects an early finish.
Paul leans Chimaev but is not heavily invested. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling and pressure will be too much, but he also sees value in late-round Strickland props if Chimaev fades. He mentions Chimaev's health issues and training changes, but ultimately expects a Chimaev win, possibly by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev despite wanting Strickland to win. He believes Chimaev's wrestling is on another level, citing his dominant performance against Du Plessis. He notes Strickland's takedown defense is good but not elite, and Chimaev's ability to secure back position and threaten chokes will be decisive. He predicts a submission by d'arce choke in the first or second round.
Zane picks Chimaev confidently, citing his elite wrestling as a massive advantage over Strickland. He notes that Chimaev's takedowns are explosive and dynamic, unlike Anthony Hernandez who Strickland handled. Zane believes Strickland's confidence folds when he gets hurt, and Chimaev will dominate early rounds, making a comeback unlikely. He acknowledges Strickland could win late rounds if he stuffs takedowns, but sees that as improbable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 1 | 110 of 241 | 45% | 111 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 55 of 122 | 45% | 57 of 124 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 32 of 90 | 35% | 33 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 37 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 1 | 41 of 72 | 56% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 110 of 241 | 45% | 93 of 219 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 101 of 230 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 55 of 122 | 45% | 29 of 93 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 13 | 55 of 120 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 32 of 90 | 35% | 24 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 23 of 48 | 47% | 12 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 37 of 79 | 46% | 30 of 69 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 23 of 47 | 48% | 12 of 36 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 41 of 72 | 56% | 39 of 70 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 9 of 27 | 33% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Strickland lands an inside leg kick followed by a jab. A 1-2 from Strickland keeps Hernandez at bay. Hernandez lands a hard calf kick. Strickland, as expected, is using his jab liberally. Hernandez jabs the body. Inside leg kick lands for Hernandez and he jabs the body Strickland continues to pump his jab in Hernandez’s mug. Hernandez just misses a right hand. Hernandez looks to get inside and Strickland lands a short uppercut. Strickland follows a front kick with a jab. Strickland tags Hernadnez with a combination and “Fluffy” grins at him. Hernandez follows a combination by clinching with Strickland, but the former champ is able to circle out and extract himself. Multiple jabs land for Strickland. Hernandez fires back and Strickland appears to slip as he circles away. A solid right lands for Hernandez and Stirckland angels out. Strickland keeps firing his lead hand to keep Hernandez at a safe distance, but “Fluffy” is having his moments to land, as well. Hernandez follows an inside leg kick with a late flurry before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
Strickland with an inside low kick. They both trade low kicks. Hernandez fakes a takedown and then follows with an overhand right. Strickland lands a straight right. Hernandez pressures but Strickland is able to angle out of dnager. Hernandez counters a front kick with a right. More jabs and then a rigth hand connect for Strickland. A solid leg kick connects for “Fluffy.” Strickland’s patented jab and front kick both find the range. They briefly trade in close quarters, with Hernandez finding the rage on an uppercut. Hernandez pressures and Strickland pumps out his jab. Hernandez lands a jab of his own, but he’s still struggling to get into takedown range. Hernandez jabs the body. Strickland lands a 1-2. Hernandez answers with a couple shots to the body. They clinch and Strickland pushes Hernandez into the fence. They separate in short order with 40 seconds to go. Hernandez gets inside and forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow as they separate. Strickland lands a nice combination late in the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
Hernandez follows a combination with a head kick early to provide a different look. Strickland doubles up on his jab. Hernandez is trying to put pressure on his opponent, but Strickland always seems to have an anwer with volume and intelligent movement. Hernandez forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow on the break. Moments later, Strickland seems to have hurt Hernandez with a knee to the body. Hernandez is on the retreat as he tries to recover.
Strickland goes in for the kill and it’s just a barrage of punches as Hernandez covers up against the fence. A series of uppercuts does the trick, and finally “Fluffy” goes down. Strickland polishes off the victory with about eight unanswered standing-to-ground punches.
That’s the end of Hernandez’s eight-fight UFC winning streak, and don’t look now, but Strickland is right back in the thick of the middleweight title picture.
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Anthony Hernandez via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) R3 2:33
Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez, drawing parallels to DDP's wins over Strickland via relentless forward pressure. He believes Hernandez's cardio and takedown volume will prevent Strickland from settling into his jab-heavy style. He respects Strickland's resume but thinks the matchup favors Hernandez.
Big Brady picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez to defeat Sean Strickland. He notes that Strickland has not wrestled in years, landing only two takedowns in his last several five-round fights, and that Fluffy's relentless takedown pressure will exhaust Strickland for the first time. He predicts Fluffy will land 10-15 takedowns over 25 minutes and win a decision, though a late finish wouldn't surprise him. He emphasizes Fluffy's cardio and ability to repeatedly take down opponents.
Cody believes Strickland hasn't shown knockout power and that Hernandez's cardio and grappling will be too much. He notes Strickland's tendency to abandon game plans and thinks Hernandez wins by decision or late finish. He also mentions that Strickland's split decision history makes him unreliable as a favorite.
Connor picks Strickland because he believes Hernandez's pressure will be too slow to overcome Strickland's defensive jab and front kicks. He notes that Hernandez has never faced a sprawl-and-brawl type like Strickland, and that Strickland's takedown defense, while questionable, should hold up enough to win early rounds. He also points out that Strickland has only been finished twice by huge shots, which Hernandez is unlikely to land.
The host is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that all the value lies with Strickland as a +225 underdog, citing Hernandez's injury concerns and Strickland's elite cardio and takedown defense. However, he also notes that Strickland lacks finishing power and is passive at times, making a decision win difficult. He ultimately cannot decide whether to bet Strickland and passes on betting Hernandez due to the steep -290 price.
Lucrative James picks Fluffy Hernandez to win by decision, citing his relentless pace, pressure, and cardio. He notes that Strickland has all the tools to win but often makes poor decisions in the cage, as seen in his last fight against Du Plessis. James believes Hernandez's volume and grappling will overwhelm Strickland over five rounds, though he admits the betting value is on Strickland at plus money.
Hernandez is on an eight-fight winning streak with relentless wrestling and improved durability. Strickland's takedown defense is good, but Hernandez's pace and ability to chain wrestle should wear him down. Strickland will have success on the feet, but Hernandez's grappling control and submission threats should win rounds. The over 4.5 rounds is also a strong play as both have great cardio.
Paul acknowledges Strickland's takedown defense and cardio but questions his motivation and age (turning 35). He thinks Hernandez's constant pressure and grappling will edge him on scorecards, and notes that Strickland's style leaves him at mercy of judges. He prefers to live bet Hernandez after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, believing his teep to the body and high output will be key. He notes Hernandez is often hurt to the body and that Strickland is difficult to hold down. He thinks Strickland's wrestling instincts and training with Chimaev and Ankalaev will help him stuff takedowns. He predicts a fourth or fifth round TKO.
Zane picks Hernandez despite sharing Connor's caution. He argues that Hernandez's pressure is methodical and builds over time, and that Strickland's footwork falls apart under pressure. He notes that Hernandez has improved his striking significantly, using feints and leg kicks to cut off the cage, and that Strickland has never faced a pressure grappler like Hernandez. He also points out that Strickland's win condition relies on frustrating opponents, but Hernandez has a different mindset and will keep coming.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 147 of 314 | 46% | 149 of 316 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 128 of 263 | 48% | 128 of 263 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 60 | 51% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 39 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 21 of 66 | 31% | 23 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 147 of 314 | 46% | 50 of 193 | 45 of 59 | 52 of 62 | 147 of 314 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 128 of 263 | 48% | 90 of 212 | 29 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 128 of 263 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 20 of 45 | 44% | 5 of 25 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 16 of 49 | 32% | 10 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 60 | 51% | 7 of 31 | 7 of 10 | 17 of 19 | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 54 | 53% | 15 of 35 | 8 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 39 of 79 | 49% | 11 of 46 | 14 of 15 | 14 of 18 | 39 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 24 of 47 | 51% | 18 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 21 of 66 | 31% | 13 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 28 of 51 | 54% | 23 of 43 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 36 of 64 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 13 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 36 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 31 of 62 | 50% | 24 of 54 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady scored the first fight 3-2 for du Plessis and expects a similar competitive fight. He notes that Strickland fights the same way every time, with jabs and teeps, while du Plessis has the power and wrestling advantage. He thinks du Plessis will land the bigger shots and has all the finish upside. However, he believes the odds at -205 are too wide and expects a close decision. He picks du Plessis by decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dricus is the one likely to adjust. He notes that Strickland's internal struggles prevent him from changing his game. Connor also mentions that Dricus will not back down and will keep coming forward, which is key. He sees Strickland's win condition as a lucky punch or eye swelling, but considers it unlikely.
Daniel Levi discusses the rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland, noting that the first fight was a five-round split decision. He cites historical examples where rematches of close five-round fights often end sooner, such as Machida vs Shogun and Cerrone vs Henderson. However, he does not explicitly pick a winner, instead asking the audience who they have. He mentions that du Plessis has made opponents cry with his trash talk but does not commit to a prediction.
Strickland's pace and pressure will allow him to pick apart du Plessis and get ahead on the scorecards. His striking defense and durability are good enough to deal with du Plessis's power. Strickland may incorporate some grappling to stay safe, but ultimately wins in deep water by decision.
Zane believes Dricus du Plessis will win because he is more likely to adjust and has shown he can land bigger shots. He notes that Sean Strickland rarely adapts and his style is predictable. Zane also points out that Strickland's best chance is a knockout or doctor stoppage, but that is unlikely. He trusts Dricus to counter the jab and make Strickland hesitant.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 182 of 402 | 45% | 182 of 402 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 158 of 266 | 59% | 158 of 266 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 31 of 43 | 72% | 31 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 25 of 70 | 35% | 25 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 32 of 49 | 65% | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 45 of 83 | 54% | 45 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 34 of 54 | 62% | 34 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 39 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 49 of 105 | 46% | 49 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 182 of 402 | 45% | 104 of 258 | 67 of 127 | 11 of 17 | 179 of 397 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 158 of 266 | 59% | 28 of 100 | 84 of 111 | 46 of 55 | 157 of 265 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 24 of 56 | 42% | 5 of 18 | 16 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 31 of 43 | 72% | 4 of 10 | 17 of 21 | 10 of 12 | 30 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 25 of 70 | 35% | 12 of 40 | 11 of 24 | 2 of 6 | 25 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 32 of 49 | 65% | 2 of 17 | 16 of 17 | 14 of 15 | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 45 of 83 | 54% | 28 of 56 | 15 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 34 of 54 | 62% | 7 of 19 | 17 of 23 | 10 of 12 | 34 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 39 of 88 | 44% | 22 of 61 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 5 | 38 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 29 of 53 | 54% | 9 of 26 | 13 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 49 of 105 | 46% | 37 of 83 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 47 of 103 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 32 of 67 | 47% | 6 of 28 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-245), Costa (+205)
Round 1
Fresh off a close decision loss to surrender his title, Strickland (28-6, 15-6 UFC) is back in for another five-round contest. With no belt or main event between them, the UFC still decided to schedule this matchup for 25 minutes. He stands across the cage from Brazilian marauder Costa (14-3, 6-3 UFC), who celebrates about 80% of his wins via knockout even as he has not landed one since 2018. Referee Jason Herzog will take control of the cage for this co-main attraction, and possibly due to their back-and-forth on fight week, they do not touch gloves. Costa rushes out of his corner to strike first, where he lands two hearty leg kicks early. Strickland jabs him back, and Costa chops at him with another kick. Strickland raises his leg preemptively to protect against a few others, with damage showing on it less than one minute in. Strickland walks forward despite the kicks, and he prods out a front kick of his own a few times. Costa catches Strickland walking in with a check left hook, and he swats away subsequent front kicks so he can jab the midsection of his foe. Costa pushes off the chest with a much heavier push kick, and Strickland relies on his own front kick again and again. Even if it does not land, he is making Costa think about it. Costa comes up short on an overhand right, but he does connect with a calf kick that is partially checked. They trade jabs, and the Brazilian aims a one-two to the body. Costa clacks a kick off the calf, and Strickland raises his leg up and keeps walking forward tossing out constant front kicks. Costa circles away and fakes a high kick to draw a reaction, and he kicks low to follow. A jab from “The Eraser” reddens the former champ’s nose, and he kicks Strickland in the side and jabs him in the chest. Practically every other step, Strickland is pushing out with the ball of his foot at Costa’s chest and body. Strickland catches a kick and knocks Costa down with a right hand, but Costa hops back upright without batting an eye. Costa spins with a back kick, and Strickland continues pressuring him with these continuous front kicks. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
Strickland does not sit between rounds, instead standing up and watching Costa while receiving advance. He wants to keep fighting, even if he has to take a break. As soon as they resume, Strickland goes right back to his kick spam, as if he were a young child playing a fighting game hitting the same button for one specific strike a hundred times. Costa loads up on power shots to back him off momentarily, and he sits down on a loud low kick that makes Strickland pause. A second kick hurts Strickland’s front leg further, and Strickland’s kick-heavy approach wanes momentarily. Costa attacks that lead leg once more, and he lands a left hand but starts to back off from Strickland’s pressure. Strickland starts prodding his front kicks once more, and Costa stands firm and takes a one-two across the forward bow. Strickland closes distance with this front kick when he is not throwing it directly, and it keeps Costa busy thinking about it enough to stifle most of his own offense. Strickland’s nullifying approach makes the crowd restless, and Costa skips away and hacks down with a low kick that is checked hard. Strickland pokes with kicks to the body, and he snaps the head back with a jab while checking a calf kick. A front kick leads to two punches from the ex-champ, and Costa explodes at him pursuing a takedown, but Strickland tosses him aside. Costa delivers two solid low kicks, and Strickland lifts his leg to shake it out and keeps a poker face. Costa spins with a wheel kick that bounces off the guard, and he backs away as Strickland jabs him again and again. Strickland connects with a stiff jab, and he drops Costa to a knee as the pressure appears to be wilting the Brazilian. Costa stands and sticks his tongue out, and Strickland does not falter in his gameplan of front kicks, jabs and the occasional right hand. This plays out to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
It takes all of a few seconds for Strickland to turn the game plan back on of front kick after stifling front kick. Even if every other kick actually lands, they add up, and Costa’s midsection is marking up fast. Costa digs a pair of left hands to the body, and he pounds his own kick to the ribs and then goes low. Strickland checks the latter, and he leans back to avoid a left hook. Strickland powers forward, loading up on a combination until Costa bounces off the cage wall and sticks his tongue out. Costa whips a high kick up and it is blocked, and he strikes low and has his kick checked hard. Costa limps away, and Strickland walks him down while touching up him with jabs. Strickland jabs and jabs again, and he pushes Costa away when Costa rushes at him for a level change. Costa thinks about spinning with a strike, but he just twirls around without throwing anything. Strickland chips away at him with jabs and front kicks, and he evades a spinning wheel kick that zips past his nose. Costa lands a pair of low kicks, and the second makes him hobble away. Costa jabs to the body, and he gets his guts kicked a few more times. Strickland comes up short on two hooks, but the straight strikes land regularly. Two jabs, a front kick and two more come from the former champ, who is cruising while Costa is fading. Costa puts all his power into an overhand right, and Strickland dodges as it glances past him. Strickland strings three heavier punches together, and Costa skirts away and tosses a half-hearted right hand that surprises Strickland. The former champion rips an uppercut as Costa ducks, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The middleweights tap gloves as they enter the championship rounds, and Strickland does not need much time before revving up his engines to steadily work Costa over. Costa flails with heavy strikes, and he gets a right hand in, but Strickland lands three of his own, a body kick and a few more jabs. The Brazilian gets off a low kick, and he reaches Strickland with a number of jabs. Costa swipes out with a left hook, and when he has a leg kick checked, he almost falls over from the impact. Costa sells out for a head kick on the other side, and Strickland keeps walking him down and protecting himself from the telegraphed heavy blows. Strickland presses ever forward, jabbing the body and head with punches and front kicks. The approach has been steady and effective, if not overly entertaining. The crowd expresses its restlessness as Costa swings for the fences but hits air, and Strickland does not load up on much while simply outworking his opponent. Costa’s head kicks are blocked, his hooks go wide and his leg kicks are largely checked. Costa gets off a front kick to the body that has much more impact than Strickland’s, and he scores a calf kick that is not checked. He turns and fakes one type of kick so that he can set up a side kick that lands flush on the midsection. Strickland pushes him back with jabs and twos, and Costa slams his left hand on the liver and dings the front leg with another powerful kick. Costa’s kicks are not being checked like before, and Strickland frowns when absorbing them. Costa lands a punch to the body, and he absorbs four punches from up close before backing away. Strickland wings a right hand that bounces into the ear, and Costa stumbles away as the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
The fifth round has been reached by the middleweights, and they touch gloves presumably one last time. Costa tosses out two punches and a low kick, and Strickland lifts his leg up to defend it. Costa kicks it again, and Strickland meanders forward with a front kick from either leg. Costa plants his shin on the front leg of his opponent again as Strickland is coming at him, and Strickland rolls to avoid a right hand and checks a low kick to follow. Costa winds up on power punches, and one more leg kick gets checked. Strickland catches a body kick and makes Costa pay for it with a pair of straight left hands before releasing the leg, and the two throw hands at the same time. A body kick from “The Eraser” backs Strickland off for a moment, but Strickland gets back into his rhythm of jab to front kick territory. Strickland has his own body struck from kicks and punches, and Costa doubles down on body shots. Costa kicks the body on the other side, and Strickland jabs him and pushes him away with a teep kick. Strickland’s jab is on point, disrupting Costa’s sweeping strikes. Costa goes to the body with a stern left hand, and Strickland no-sells it and works the body with front kick after front kick. Costa just misses on a one-two, and he barrels forward and pushes Strickland back but does not change levels. Strickland misses the mark on a pair of punches, and Costa snaps his head back with a power jab and sits down on a low kick. Costa reaches his man with a left hook, and he is driven away with a handful of jabs. Costa thinks about pursuing a single, but he gives it up and spins with a back fist as he eats a jab. Costa sits down on a few punches, and Strickland pours it on with a barrage of punches. As Costa bounces off the fence, Strickland boots him in the raised guard with a head kick with enough impact to still put Costa on his seat. Costa springs back up, and Strickland runs at him with a jumping front kick as the long engagement comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Paulo Costa via Split Decision (46-49, 50-45, 49-46)
Angelo picks Sean Strickland because of his dependability and the Philly shell defense. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's power and cardio but believes Strickland's volume and durability will win a decision, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Costa might try wrestling after seeing Dricus du Plessis take Strickland down, but still favors Strickland.
Big Brady likes Sean Strickland at 8,800 because it's a five-round fight, giving Strickland 25 minutes to rack up volume (6 significant strikes per minute). He thinks Strickland's pace will add up and he could even get a late finish. He also likes Paulo Costa in cash games for the same five-round volume, noting Costa's durability and potential takedowns. He sees Costa as a live dog but expects Strickland to win a decision or late finish.
Cody picks Strickland, highlighting his jab and reach advantage. He notes Strickland's durability and volume, and believes Costa's power is overrated (last KO of note was Uriah Hall in 2018). Cody expects Strickland to drown Costa with pressure and volume, possibly getting a late stoppage. He mentions Strickland's experience in five-round fights and Costa's lack thereof.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Costa, agreeing with Fox. He was initially concerned about the 25-minute fight but was reassured by Costa's performance against Whittaker. Vreeland notes Strickland won't grapple and Costa is a decent grappler anyway. He sees risk standing with Costa for 25 minutes but believes Costa's power and durability give him the edge.
Daniel notes that Costa can compete at this level but questions if he can win. He highlights Strickland's insane output and Philly shell, and expects Strickland to edge a decision with higher volume. He acknowledges either could get knocked out but leans Strickland.
Jeff Fox picks Paulo Costa at +200, citing that Strickland's five-round losses (to Jared Cannonier and Dricus du Plessis) came because opponents landed harder shots that judges value more. He believes Costa will land the bigger shots and notes Costa's strong performance against Robert Whittaker. Fox thinks Costa can take three rounds and possibly win a split decision, and he's not worried about Strickland wrestling.
The host believes Costa's power punching is the key to beating Strickland, who has struggled against power punchers. Costa's ability to land big shots over five rounds could lead to a knockout or sway judges with damage. The host notes Costa's recent activity and motivation, and sees value at +205, picking Costa by knockout.
Paul picks Strickland, emphasizing volume advantage. He notes Costa can land big shots but lacks volume; Strickland will put up 200+ significant strikes while Costa struggles to reach 100. He expects Strickland by decision or late stoppage, and mentions Strickland's reach advantage (76-inch reach vs Costa's 72-inch). He also notes Costa's poor body language and cardio in past fights.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, noting that Costa is inconsistent and has been effectively jabbed before. He believes Strickland can survive Costa's early pressure and take over in later rounds. He predicts Strickland by TKO in rounds 4 or 5. He acknowledges Costa's dangerous right hand and head kick but trusts Strickland's durability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 173 of 408 | 42% | 183 of 419 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 137 of 354 | 38% | 140 of 358 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 39 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 19 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 60 | 43% | 26 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 87 | 35% | 31 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 84 | 34% | 29 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 33 of 85 | 38% | 34 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 73 | 39% | 31 of 75 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 53 of 99 | 53% | 53 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 35 of 86 | 40% | 35 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 173 of 408 | 42% | 157 of 387 | 10 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 173 of 408 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 137 of 354 | 38% | 81 of 283 | 32 of 37 | 24 of 34 | 134 of 348 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 34 of 75 | 45% | 28 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 18 of 51 | 35% | 8 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 10 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 62 | 35% | 20 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 26 of 60 | 43% | 11 of 42 | 9 of 9 | 6 of 9 | 25 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 87 | 35% | 29 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 84 | 34% | 13 of 64 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 33 of 85 | 38% | 32 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 73 | 39% | 22 of 62 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 28 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 53 of 99 | 53% | 48 of 93 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 53 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 35 of 86 | 40% | 27 of 77 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)
Round 1
The UFC is running a number of middleweight headliners before and after this show, clearly focusing on the top of the division and trying to establish contenders. Instead of a fresh face for Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC), however, the organization is rebooking the fight where “DDP” claimed the throne. Former beltholder Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC) gets another crack at the belt, and at least he won a fight beforehand. Making things official for this 185-pound title tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, issuing his final instructions and getting the combatants to touch ‘em up. It’s on with the show. Strickland keeps his guard up and paws out jabs almost immediately. Strickland stays busy behind his lead left hand, and he blocks a high kick and lets Du Plessis kick him in the sternum. Du Plessis chips at the front leg with kicks, hand-fighting the jabs and wrapping a kick up around the guard. Strickland wears it well and checks a calf kick so he can get in with a jab and a follow-up two. Du Plessis sells out with a hard calf kick that gets checked, so he quickly slaps the other side. Strickland’s jabs are getting through the guard, and Du Plessis answers with a few of his own jabs. Du Plessis goes after another kick, and when it is blocked, he spins and has his heel glance off the challenger’s side. Strickland does not vary his tactic of sticking directly behind his jab, no matter the oncoming fire like a speedy head kick. Strickland stays cool as a cucumber with a front kick of two, scooting out of the way Du Plessis loads up. Strickland jabs the body and is backed off with a spinning back kick that does push him away, and he uses his head movement to avoid the worst of a looping left. Du Plessis his toes slap Strickland on the cheek, with Strickland moving just enough just in time. A Strickland jab flusters “DDP,” who surges into action with power punches and a spin. Du Plessis parries a jab and throws back a left, and he wraps a right around the guard and a head kick inches away from where he was reaching. Du Plessis doubles up on a body kick and scores a right hand, and they both land body shots. Du Plessis rushes forward, gets parried, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to get going, and game plans do not shift out of the gate. A lot of pump-faking and feints lead to single strikes from both sides, and Du Plessis tries to string a few kicks together on either side. Strickland pushes a front kick through the guard, and they both get off low kicks. A body kick from Du Plessis slips under the guard, and he slips and has a left hand glance off the chin. Strickland turns to block another body kick, but the varied attack is hard to predict. Strickland lands a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done as Du Plessis pays him back. Du Plessis springs forward with a left, and he comes up short on a high kick but not on the leg kick. They both land punches at the same time, with the South African’s left busting open Strickland’s nose. Strickland flashes his jab and follows up with a few additional strikes, getting Du Plessis’ attention but not for long as Du Plessis remains in his face striking. The jabs of Strickland tear open a cut on the bridge of the champ’s nose, and he leans back just barely in time to not get clocked with a high kick and a left hand. Strickland’s parrying guard allows him to sway and move and block, but Du Plessis’s reaching attacks are long enough to land at the end of them. Du Plessis spins with a back fist, gets blocked and spins the other direction with a kick. Strickland stands firm, but has to defend himself as Du Plessis bears down on him. Strickland checks a kick and pecks with his jab, while Du Plessis pops in and out and scores a head kick. Du Plessis lets fly a body kick as he leans back and evades the straight punches aimed at him, contorting his body in a way to protect himself. The round ends with Du Plessis trying to reach from afar, only to get met with jabs to the body.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them into it, and they bump fists when the round kicks off. Du Plessis, appropriately, kicks. Lobbing strikes from both sides, he still cannot back Strickland off even if he lands cleanly enough to not absorb counters. Strickland uses a standing knee shield to block some kicks, and this lets “DDP” slug him in the face with a short but dangerous combination. Strickland’s chin holds stern, and he remains right in the face of the champ, where he scores a right to the body and a left to the head. Du Plessis lunges back at him with two looping hooks, and two more come along with a leg kick. Du Plessis drills the body with a kick, and a side kick bounces off the cup as Strickland signals he is not compromised from the foul. Du Plessis wraps a kick under the elbow and they continue striking, this time with an accidental foul on the side of Strickland with a reaching arm that pokes “DDP” in the eye. Du Plessis waves it off and keeps swinging with bad intentions, and he clips the challenger with a spinning back fist at the top of the melon. Du Plessis kicks with either leg and stutter-steps to come in with a left, but it is his body kick that lands cleanly more than once. Du Plessis shoves Strickland away, taking a jab off the chest so he can hurl a left hand. Strickland splits the guard with a jab and follows with two solid punches, and Du Plessis walks him down and bashes him upside the head with a spinning elbow. The two go wild for a moment with looping punches, and Strickland appears to finally get the attention of the champion. Strickland paws out his front foot, and Du Plessis hammers the body with a right hand. Strickland wraps two right hands up top, and Du Plessis pays him back with a left. When Strickland finds success on the feet, Du Plessis shoots in for a takedown and puts Strickland on his seat. Strickland climbs to his feet and connect with a right hand before the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and Strickland is urged by his corner to attack but he does not come out in the round doing anything differently. The jabs do find their home, and Strickland prods out his front kick, but Du Plessis is able to blast past his defenses to at least partially connect with big strikes. Du Plessis jams his foot to the body and rushes forward throwing hammers, and a right hand at the end of a flurry staggers the former champ and shatters his nose. Strickland retreats, blood pouring out of his beak as he backpedals to stay in the fight. Like a dog with a bone, Du Plessis races after Strickland hoping to use the marked-up face like a bullseye. Du Plessis does not headhunt entirely, still working the body as he works his way in. Strickland ties him up, and Du Plessis elbows him back. Du Plessis reaches him at the end of a left hand, and they clash with right hands. Strickland starts throwing again, only to eat a punch on the nose that makes him have to pause. Du Plessis slowly works his way forward, ducking into a shot and drawing a serious reaction out of his opponent. “Tarzan” looks at the clock that reads 1:40, and Du Plessis finds an opening with a big right hand that the challenger does not love. Strickland starts lowing up on power, and a one-two surprises Du Plessis, who spins at him with a back fist and swarms him with punches. Du Plessis stays right in front of his fellow striker, not getting too reckless to fall into a counter. A one-two from “DDP” plants on the cheek, and he drills Strickland with another as Strickland’s jaw is made of sterner stuff. Du Plessis lumbers forward with looping strikes, letting Strickland’s jabs largely patter of the guard as he targets the body. The horn sounds as Du Plessis gets off a knee to the abdomen.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 5
Between rounds, the eternally tough Strickland asks for someone to help with his nose. When no one able to help him, he does it himself, snapping his nose back into alignment and slowing some of the immediate bleeding. Strickland stays in first gear, for the most part, jabbing his way into a few punches, but Du Plessis’ diversity of striking and willingness to target anywhere is giving him a major advantage compare to the boxing-heavy challenger. Du Plessis lunges to reach the target with an elbow, and blood flows again. Strickland jabs and dodges a spin, and when Du Plessis resets, he spins the other way and knocks Strickland back a few steps with the kick. Strickland puts a one-two down the pipe, prompting Du Plessis to respond in kind. Strickland finds his home with another pair of punches, and Du Plessis belts him in the belly to make him think twice. After Du Plessis scores a few punches, Strickland gives him a single one back. A spinning wheel kick brushes past the nose, and Du Plessis nearly falls over and is pushed away, gathering his thoughts before Strickland can get his hands on him. Du Plessis swarms his way forward, blitzing the challenger and letting jabs get through so he can hit harder. A few leaping right hands further bust the nose open of Strickland, and he leans down and gets kicked in the face. Du Plessis hand-fights to block punches and throw some back in rapid succession, and even the jabs and leg kicks have an impact. Strickland’s visage turns into a crimson mass, and a head kick does not make the visuals look better. Strickland jabs the body with kicks, and he gets kicked in the side for his attempt. Du Plessis reaches, scores and leans back, not letting the long Strickland get to him. Du Plessis tries for a punctuating takedown, and he gets clipped with a right hand after stuffing it. The two wing a few reckless punches, and another 25 minutes are in the books for these middleweights. The rivalry should be in the books and now part of history, as Strickland raises the arm of who should be the rightful victor: Du Plessis. The next challenger should be right around the corner, and the UFC has options in Nassourdine Imavov or Khamzat Chimaev. When “DDP” gets his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-46 Du Plessis)
The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.
Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.
Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.
Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.
Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.
Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.
I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 94 of 271 | 34% | 94 of 271 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 137 of 259 | 52% | 137 of 259 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 20 of 64 | 31% | 20 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 21 of 57 | 36% | 21 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 38 of 63 | 60% | 38 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 21 of 60 | 35% | 21 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 36 of 71 | 50% | 36 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 94 of 271 | 34% | 22 of 154 | 38 of 60 | 34 of 57 | 94 of 271 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 137 of 259 | 52% | 85 of 186 | 45 of 62 | 7 of 11 | 121 of 235 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 12 of 39 | 30% | 1 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 12 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 27 of 52 | 51% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 28 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 10 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 20 of 64 | 31% | 3 of 35 | 7 of 12 | 10 of 17 | 20 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 16 of 32 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 21 of 57 | 36% | 4 of 27 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 13 | 21 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 20 of 41 | 48% | 12 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 20 of 51 | 39% | 10 of 35 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 6 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 38 of 63 | 60% | 22 of 46 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 21 of 60 | 35% | 4 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 21 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 36 of 71 | 50% | 18 of 44 | 16 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-650), Strickland (+470)
Round 1
This main event is for all the marbles, with a middleweight belt and plenty of bragging rights following ample trash talk on the line. Intending on making the first defense of his second middleweight title reign, Adesanya (24-2, 13-2 UFC) comes in with about -700 odds as the most heavily favored fighter on the lineup. With plans of springing one of the largest championship upsets in recent memory – Grasso vs. Shevchenko and Pena vs. Nunes notwithstanding – Strickland (27-5, 14-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to spoil the party and play the ultimate villain in Sydney. The striker-on-striker affair will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, and due to their bad blood, the middleweights have no plan on bumping fists. Adesanya is already talking to Strickland, and he feints several times to make Strickland react immediately. Adesanya paws out a low kick and then a front kick, and Strickland pushes it out of the way and blocks another front kick. A body kick from the champ grazes off the intended target, and he moves laterally to not let Strickland get into his preferred range. Adesanya continues hip-thrusting and faking strikes, and Strickland bites on most of them and is prepared to block when Adesanya commits to a strike. Strickland meanders forward, missing with a jab, and Adesanya hops away. Adesanya reaches his man with a straight left hand, and he sinks a leg kick down hard. Both men try to land long punches, and Strickland whiffs on a one-two. Adesanya kicks the body, and Strickland catches it, walks him to the fence, and lets it go so he can poke out his jab. Strickland sees the big kicks coming from his foe, but he is offensively muted even as he keeps after Adesanya. Adesanya chews up the lead leg with a few kicks, and he jabs to the body to stay busy. Strickland misses with two leg kicks, and he is jittery and keeps a tight Philly Shell defense when coming forward. Adesanya is still able to get in on him, and he kicks the lead leg when circling to the left. Strickland catches him with a few punches, and he lands a punch that drives Adesanya back to the wall. Adesanya allows him to rattle a few punches off the guard, and he bounces off it to stick out his own jab and loose a head kick. Strickland guard against the high kick but cannot stop the low strike, and he continues to give chase and cut Adesanya off. Adesanya stays on his bike and just misses with a head kick, and out of nowhere, Strickland blasts him in the face with a straight right hand. Strickland sees that he has his man hurt badly, and Adesanya drops to his knee. Strickland unloads on him with punches, and Adesanya stands up and turns his back while leaning forward against the fence. As Strickland keeps throwing everything he has, Adesanya motions to Goddard that he is fine. Adesanya turns around, and he survives the assault when the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
The champ appears recovered from the assault that ended the previous frame, and he peppers Strickland with distance strikes to initiate the second stanza. Strickland splits the guard with a jab, and Adesanya whips a leg kick at him and has a head kick bounce into the block. Adesanya lands kicks with body legs, and he connects with a left hook and rolls just in time to dodge a one-two from the challenger. Adesanya stretches his hand out several times to get a read on his distance, and he comes up short on a one-two to a high kick. Adesanya attacks the body, and he slaps with his right hand and follows it with a solid left. Strickland parries jabs and body shots, and he ignores a jab and a leg kick while plodding forward. Adesanya looks to loop a left around the guard, and Strickland pops him in the face with a sharp jab. Adesanya gets a right hand over that jab, and Strickland takes it without batting an eye. Strickland jabs with the ball of his foot to the midsection, and Adesanya keeps circling and moving while putting jabs together. Adesanya lands a few leg kicks, and Strickland reaches him with his toes for a push kick. Adesanya strikes the body and the lead leg, and Strickland pushes him back with an accurate jab. Adesanya winds up and drills the challenger with an overhand right, and Strickland can do little beyond block the body kick that comes after it and keep the forward pace constant. Strickland prods out a jab, and Adesanya answers him with a big right that grazes off the shoulder. Adesanya again opens up with a wide right hand, and he kicks the body and fakes to spin as he dips and ducks. Strickland lands with a right, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Round 3
Adesanya starts the third round by slapping a kick off the raised guard. Strickland moves forward, but his offense is largely relegated to a jab or a front kick as Adesanya keeps strafing. Adesanya hand-fights to stop a left hand from coming over the top, and he flicks out a number of jabs and kicks the body with either leg. Adesanya pushes off with a front kick, and Strickland answers him with one of his own. When Strickland raises his leg to prepare for a kick, Adesanya kicks him anyway. Adesanya connects with a right over the top in the midst of an exchange, but he mixes up strikes to the body and head to keep Strickland guessing. Strickland walks him down with a pair of jabs and a push kick, and he protects himself from most of what comes back towards him. Adesanya reaches him with a right hand, and Strickland counters with one that brushes off his foe’s forehead. A head kick from Adesanya is narrowly guarded in time, and Adesanya resets and eats a check left hook. Strickland gives chase with a one-two, and he stands Adesanya up with a left hand when swarming him. Adesanya gathers himself and jabs the head and body, only to be met with a push kick. When Adesanya kicks low, Strickland pops him in the chops with a sharp jab. Adesanya slips a punch, retaliates, and takes a body shot and a left hook. Adesanya jabs a few more times as Strickland cannot reach him, and he gets knocked back to the wall from a jab. Strickland lands a front kick, misses with a left hand, and the tepid round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds, and Adesanya begins a bit more aggressive than before with a number of snappy jabs. Strickland ignores them all as he continues to come towards his foe, and Adesanya responds with a left hand. Strickland pushes his foe back with a punch to the chest, and Adesanya gives him a head kick back. Adesanya moves and kicks the challenger’s body, and he whiffs on a left hook. Adesanya lands a left hand to the body, and Strickland kicks him three times down the middle. A Strickland right hand draws a reaction out of his opponent, and Adesanya tries to slug it out only to get caught with a left hook from Strickland. Adesanya rebounds with a right hand and a kick to the ribs, only to get no-sold by “Tarzan.” Both men trade jabs, and the champion does not get a head kick through but does reach the mark with a right hand. Strickland lets Adesanya come at him so he can string together five or six punches, and Adesanya is surprised as he puts his guard up and backs away. Adesanya springs into action with an overhand right, but it is one-and-done as Strickland is back in his face with a jab. Strickland gets intercepted on his way in, and Adesanya chains a punch into a ripping body kick. Strickland pokes with a front kick, and he keeps jabbing to fluster Adesanya further. Adesanya has a low kick checked, and he keeps his hands low while Strickland is chasing after him. Adesanya tries to swing hard, but Strickland closes in to let the strikes go wide. The champ gets off a jab, and he snipes his target with a right hand. Strickland stands firm and composed while Adesanya is struggling to find any effective offense. Strickland has two punches pound off the guard, and he kicks the body once before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
Strickland is so fired up between rounds, he gets out of his corner, jumps to the center of the cage and starts hitting himself in the face. When the last round opens, Adesanya lands a low kick and circles. Adesanya puts up two high kicks, and Strickland’s defense is tight and solid. The two graze right hands off the other, and Adesanya leans back and gets popped with a right hand. Adesanya chips at the lead calf, and he forces a right hand over the top but does not quite reach him. Strickland picks away at the champ with a jab, and Adesanya reaches out with a body kick. Strickland checks a kick and continues to walk him down, and Adesanya may be a few minutes away from losing in a massive upset. He recognizes this and lands a huge right hand, and Strickland responds with a jab on the nose. Adesanya whips a high kick that gets guarded, and they both land jabs at the same time. A push kick from Strickland forces Adesanya to reset, and he is fearlessly approaching the champion. Strickland connects with an overhand right, and he lands a second to force Adesanya to escape out the side. Strickland backs his foe up against the fence, and Adesanya swings with a left but it does not get through. Strickland stings “The Last Stylebender” with a short combination, and he continues to come at Adesanya. Strickland starts shouting at the champion, telling him to fight him, and Adesanya can only muster a few kicks. Strickland powers forward swinging for the fences, and Adesanya has nothing left to offer. The final horn blares to end this fairly lackluster match, but it is one that will make history. Barring a bizarre series of scorecards, the challenger has done it, pulling off an upset that few if any expected would happen. When the scorecards are read, the UFC has a new middleweight king, and the belt belongs to Strickland. MMA might be the craziest sport in the world. The fights never stop coming, however, and another title is up for grabs next week. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya confidently, saying it should be Izzy all day and the -650 should be wider. He notes that Izzy is an elite striker with power and technique, while Strickland is a blue-collar volume puncher with no particular power or speed. Angelo expects a one-sided win for Izzy, possibly by decision. He suggests betting Izzy minus 5.5 points for better value.
Big Brady confidently picks Israel Adesanya, noting Strickland lacks power and wrestling threat. He thinks Adesanya will pick him apart for five rounds. He is not sure about a finish due to Strickland's durability. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Israel Adesanya as the rightful favorite, citing his speed advantage, technical striking, and ability to stay on the outside and pick apart Strickland. He notes that Strickland's best chance is to make it ugly with grappling, but doubts he will employ that game plan consistently. Cody acknowledges the line is juiced but sees Adesanya winning the majority of rounds, especially with the hometown crowd in Australia.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya confidently, citing Adesanya's superior striking, counter-punching, and leg kick game. He notes that Sean Strickland walks in a straight line, backs up in a straight line, and doesn't cut off the cage properly, which will leave him open to Adesanya's combinations. Levi also mentions that Strickland's parrying style leaves his chin exposed to follow-up strikes. He acknowledges the possibility of an upset but believes Adesanya has him covered in all areas.
Lucrative James is highly confident Israel Adesanya will win, calling him a deserved -600 favorite. He sees no clear path for Sean Strickland: Strickland lacks power, takedown threat, and volume to outwork Adesanya. James expects Adesanya to land calf kicks, forcing Strickland to switch stances and lose power. He believes Adesanya will make it look easy, possibly by decision or late knockout if Strickland gets frustrated. James dismisses Strickland's chances as a fluke.
Adesanya is a disciplined striker who sets up traps and executes game plans. He has excellent takedown defense. Strickland has poor striking defense, leaving his head on the center line and leaning back. Adesanya should work leg kicks and body shots, then set up a head kick or knockout. He will likely finish within four rounds.
Paul picks Adesanya but notes the line is too wide, suggesting the true line should be around -425 to -450. He acknowledges Strickland's volume and pressure could pose problems, but believes Adesanya's precision and hometown crowd will carry him. Paul mentions that if he's having a good night, he might throw a small bet on Strickland as a hedge.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya over Sean Strickland, predicting a third-round TKO. He notes that Adesanya will chew up Strickland's lead leg with low kicks, as Strickland has shown vulnerability to leg kicks in fights against Abus Magomedov, Cannonier, and Brendan Allen. Adesanya's feints will cause Strickland to parry, opening up kicks. He believes Adesanya will eventually land a head kick to wobble Strickland and follow up with ground and pound for a stoppage. He does not expect an early knockout, as Adesanya may not be on cycle for this fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 1 | 81 of 188 | 43% | 81 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 47 of 101 | 46% | 47 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 11 of 48 | 22% | 11 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 1 | 70 of 140 | 50% | 70 of 140 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 81 of 188 | 43% | 80 of 186 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 67 of 168 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 47 of 101 | 46% | 21 of 68 | 16 of 23 | 10 of 10 | 47 of 101 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 11 of 48 | 22% | 10 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 32 of 60 | 53% | 10 of 34 | 13 of 17 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 70 of 140 | 50% | 70 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 56 of 120 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 15 of 41 | 36% | 11 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-145), Magomedov (+125)
Round 1
In the next 25 minutes or less, one of two outcomes could play out, barring something crazy. Either a top contender in Strickland (26-5, 13-5 UFC) holds the line against a surging up-and-comer, or the hard-charging Magomedov (25-4-1, 1-0 UFC) stamps his ticket towards the top echelon of the 185- pound division in a hurry. Referee Mark Smith will be on the final call of the night, and the potentially intriguing striking affair will begin with a glove touch. Magomedov pushes off early with two front kicks, and Strickland brushes his side and absorbs a low kick. Magomedov crashes forward with looping strikes, and as Strickland circles away and lines up a jab, Magomedov pushes off and a finger slides into his eye. Smith calls time, and after 30 seconds, he calls in the doctor. Strickland mentioned that he cannot see, and he takes the cloth from the physician and wipes out his eye. Strickland paces back and forth, trying to clear his vision, and he is struggling to see. After two minutes of attempted recover, Strickland mentions he has double vision. Strickland states the he is good to go at just under three minutes of time off, and the two clap hands on the reset. Magomedov is quick to loop at front kick at him, and several front kicks follow that in rapid succession. Magomedov digs a kick deep on the upper calf, and he takes a jab and aims a second leg kick to the same spot. Magomedov gives chase, throwing wide strikes, and Strickland’s partial Philly Shell guard is allowing him to block and parry the worst of the strikes. Magomedov slings a left hand that gets around the guard, and Strickland has to shake it out. Strickland prods out with a few jabs, and Magomedov’s volume and power is far higher. Strickland dodges and weaves the power punches, and he circles into a front kick to his midsection. Strickland peppers Magomedov with jabs, reddening the nose up, but Magomedov chambers and fires several harmful leg kicks. Magomedov connects with a straight left up top and one to the body, and he gets backed up with a stream of jabs. Strickland pressures his foe and leans when a right hand brushes past his hair, and he splits the guard with an increasingly steady diet of jabs. Strickland takes a head kick right on the jaw, and Magomedov shoots in for a double and manages to throw the defensively sound Strickland to his seat. As Magomedov attempts to take his back, Strickland scoots out and works back to his feet. Strickland follows one jab with a solid right hand, but he is generally relying on his jab. Strickland takes a clean left hand over the top, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
The middleweights bump fists to start off the second frame, and Strickland lifts his leg up early to take the sting out of a leg kick. Magomedov swings for the fences with two hooks, and Strickland snipes Magomedov with a one-two. Strickland walks down Magomedov, who appears surprised by the blows, and he stumbles when he meets the cage behind him. Strickland drills Magomedov with another one-two, and he stalks after the Russian putting his punches together. Magomedov’s offense is limited to big counter punches, and Strickland senses his opening and lays into “Abus.” Strickland is in his groove, snapping out sharp jabs and follow-up punches, and Magomedov is reeling. Magomedov shells up, and Strickland accurately gets strikes around it and through it. Magomedov is fatiguing fast, his strikes telegraphed, while Strickland is not missing a beat as he lands with impunity. Strickland rattles Magomedov with a right hand, and he rolls through a counter that does not have nearly as much on it. Magomedov winces and gets backed up to the cage, and Strickland unleashes a vicious combination of punches to mess Magomedov up. Magomedov’s mouth wide open, he backs off while Strickland is comfortable to beat on him. Magomedov digs a pair of huge left hands to the body, but for every one he lands, Strickland gets off five or more.
Magomedov takes a long look at the clock, and he frowns as Strickland jabs his face off. Magomedov crumbles from the methodical bludgeoning, his knees giving way as he slumps his back to the cage. Strickland shoves him over to his side, and he force-feeds his fist into Magomedov’s face again and again without any signs of slowing. Magomedov is barely hanging on at this point, just taking damage, and Smith watches on cautiously until he decides that enough is enough and “Abus” is done.
After likely dropping the first round, Strickland came on strong, reminding the division that he is still a force to be reckoned with, and notching another win at the UFC Apex. A gracious Strickland thanks the fans and says he would not do what he does – or get paid – were it not for the fans. He then declares his love for the country, after calling for either a title shot or “meat” to fight. Whether Strickland ends up getting a crack at the belt after beating an unranked opponent in Magomedov, or he posts up at the Apex for another few headliners, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Result
Sean Strickland def. Abusupiyan Magomedov R2 4:20 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Abus Magomedov despite Strickland being the favorite. He notes Strickland's high volume and takedown defense but believes Abus's power and versatility will be key. He expects Abus to win early rounds but acknowledges Strickland's pressure could wear him down. He mentions a potential plus 5.5 point buy on the scorecard for Abus.
Big Brady picks Sean Strickland to win by decision. He notes Strickland has faced much better competition and has five-round experience, while Magomedov has only one UFC fight. He thinks Strickland is the better striker, especially as the fight goes on, and Magomedov's only path is a first-round knockout. He expects Strickland to survive the early rounds and take over later.
Cody is shocked the line moved from -175 to -145, as Strickland is coming off a dominant five-round performance on short notice. He emphasizes Strickland's proven cardio, durability, and volume against elite competition, while Magomedov has only one UFC win over Dustin Stoltzfus and was knocked out by Lewis Taylor in PFL. Cody sees Magomedov's level of competition as far below Strickland's and believes the line is a trap but is willing to bet Strickland anyway.
Daniel leans Strickland due to his proven volume and output over five rounds, citing his 200+ significant strikes against Imavov and 150+ against Cannonier. He acknowledges Magomedov's power and finishing ability, especially early, but sees Strickland's pace and durability as key. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation because Magomedov's decision record (5-1) and power make the outcome uncertain. He notes Strickland's output increases in later rounds, which favors him if the fight goes the distance.
James discusses the matchup at length but does not make a definitive pick. He notes that Abusupiyan has stylistic advantages in wrestling that Strickland hasn't faced recently, and that Strickland's pressure and experience in five-round fights are factors. He says he needs to do more tape before coming to a prediction.
Paul agrees with Cody, surprised by the line movement. He highlights Strickland's ability to go five rounds at 185, his volume (182 significant strikes in his last fight), and his ranking as #4 in the division. He notes Magomedov is not ranked in the top 15 and has fought mostly low-level competition. Paul believes Strickland's experience and cardio are decisive.
The Guru picks Sean Strickland, reasoning that Abus Magomedov's only notable win is over Dustin Stoltzfus, which is not enough evidence. He notes Strickland's experience and pressure, and believes if Magomedov doesn't finish in round one, his finishing rate plummets. He predicts Strickland will wear him down and get a late-round TKO or decision, similar to his win over Nassourdine Imavov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 182 of 405 | 44% | 194 of 420 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 123 of 269 | 45% | 131 of 277 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 24 of 74 | 32% | 24 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 22 of 72 | 30% | 27 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 22 of 58 | 37% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 47 of 78 | 60% | 48 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 57 of 100 | 57% | 60 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 32 of 81 | 39% | 35 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 35 of 65 | 53% | 38 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 182 of 405 | 44% | 134 of 347 | 38 of 48 | 10 of 10 | 175 of 396 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 123 of 269 | 45% | 67 of 207 | 41 of 46 | 15 of 16 | 104 of 248 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 24 of 74 | 32% | 16 of 64 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 19 of 50 | 38% | 8 of 36 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 22 of 72 | 30% | 13 of 60 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 22 of 58 | 37% | 14 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 47 of 78 | 60% | 31 of 61 | 12 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 47 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 24 of 45 | 53% | 12 of 33 | 9 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 57 of 100 | 57% | 47 of 87 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 56 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 23 of 51 | 45% | 10 of 36 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 32 of 81 | 39% | 27 of 75 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 75 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 35 of 65 | 53% | 23 of 52 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 51 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Imavov (-115), Strickland (-105)
Round 1
We have reached the main event of the evening, one that the organization did not have in mind coming into 2023. Instead of Kelvin Gastelum, rising Frenchman Imavov (12-3, 4-1 UFC) will be battling Strickland (25-5, 12-5 UFC). Rather than fighting at middleweight, the two will be competing at light heavyweight. The weight difference is fairly stark, with Imavov clocking in at 194 pounds, a whole 10 pounds lighter than Strickland (204). Strickland will try to turn things around, as he is currently riding the first losing skid of his career, while Imavov has earned three straight wins on his own ledger. The last fight of the card will be joined by referee Mark Smith, and the two men are happy to be competing tonight and touch gloves. Strickland gets right in his foe’s face, but Imavov is the one striking first with a few straight punches and a low kick. The Frenchman connects with a left hook, and Strickland responds with a one-two down the pipe. Strickland uses his outstretched jab to parry a few punches, and he absorbs a punch at the end of it. Imavov winds up with a huge right hand over the top, and Strickland takes it flush and rolls to fire back with a one-two. Strickland prepares to shoulder roll, and he strings three punches together including a left hand straight down the middle. Strickland throws a front kick, and the two are warned for outstretched fingers while they come together. They hand-fight with long reaches, and Strickland finds an opening to kick the liver. Strickland slaps at the lead calf, and he hops away when Imavov charges. Imavov reaches Strickland with a right, and Strickland responds cleanly in kind to stun Imavov. Strickland reaches his man with punches in bunches, and Imavov tries to spin with a no-look elbow to no avail. Strickland rushes forward, pushing the pace and throwing hands, and he eats a few punches and swings much harder than he has in several fights. The wild swings of “Tarzan” lead into a clinch, and he presses Imavov to the wall and scores a short left on the break. Strickland leans back from a jab, and he absorbs a front kick and swats away a leaping right hand. Strickland gets in a jab as he works his way forward, and he wings a huge right hand that skims off the Frenchman’s hair. Imavov ducks and uses the top of his skull to block a punch, and Strickland does not blink and continues to walk forward. The American sees a telegraphed overhand right come at him so that he can counter with three or four punches, and these two overcommit to several powerful blows that blow back the hair of those seated in the first row of the Apex. Strickland plods forward, landing two punches and getting tied up right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
The middleweight expats meet right in the center of the cage to begin the second round, and they continue practically right where they left off. Strickland leads the dance, coming forward and pressuring the Frenchman actively. Imavov swings wildly, with a huge right hand skimming past Strickland’s shoulder. Strickland kicks the body and strings a few punches into the combination to follow, and this leads to a clinch. Strickland protests that Imavov is grabbing his glove, but Smith does not intervene or remark on it. The fighters split up, and Strickland puts a one-two together and unloads with a hellacious right hand on the button. Imavov absorbs it surprisingly, and he starts swinging back dangerously. Both men are wearing it and slightly hurt from the brief brawl that ensued. Strickland changes levels suddenly to trip Imavov to the mat, but he cannot hold him there for long. Imavov walks up the wall with it at his back, and he pushes off with a front kick to gain some space. Imavov lands a right hand, and Strickland replies with a one-two and a wild right hand. Neither fighter appears quite the technical wizard as per usual as they flail and swing awkwardly arcing punches at one another, and this results in one more clinch. Imavov eventually escapes, and he times a Strickland jab to smash him in the face with a right hand. Strickland gets shoved back with a knee, elbow and punch, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Round 3
Round 3 begins with tit-for-tat strikes from one man and the other. Strickland breaks up this exchange with a leg kick, and he nails the Frenchman with a left hand and a right to follow. Imavov welcomes the brief brawl, and they both score with punishing blows and either budge an inch. They break away from their proverbial phone-booth fight to let Imavov circle on the outside, and he flirts with a high kick and suddenly reaches with a straight right hand. Strickland rolls with a punch and scores a left, and he cannot get out of the way from a left on the jaw. With his chin tucked, Strickland does not bat an eye, and the two proceed to stand right in front of one another punching the other in the face. Strickland catches the hands of his opponent and swipes out a left hand, and he marches forward to snap out a few jabs. Imavov dives into a single that misses by a mile, and Strickland lets him back up and shrugs off a few punches. When Imavov kicks low, Strickland counters him with a left over the top. Strickland jabs his way in to closer exchanges, and he scoops a right hand that slugs right into Imavov’s chops. Imavov bounces on his feet to shake things off, and they trade front kicks to the belly. Strickland times a counter on the jaw, and the pace has understandably slowed after how hard the two not-middleweights were throwing for the first few rounds. Strickland jabs, Imavov responds, and this spurs Strickland into action with a big right hand and a left. Imavov cannot dodge a body kick, and he lets Strickland grab him and tries to spin with an elbow. Strickland ducks it after landing a front kick, and the round comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, and this is a first for France’s Imavov. Strickland flusters him out of the gate with a low kick, a body kick and several jabs. Strickland pushes out a one-two before Imavov can respond, and Imavov pushes forward but only hand-fights. Strickland kicks the ribs and smacks Imavov with another fierce one-two, and this leads to Imavov grabbing his hands standing. Imavov presses forward with his shoulder into a clinch situation, but Strickland shrugs it off and gets back to his preferred striking range. Strickland paws out a few punches and gets his head snapped back with a left, but he drives the ball of his foot to the body in response. Imavov swats kicks his foe’s way, but they are half-hearted. Imavov absorbs a few punches from up top, and he answers by throwing fire. Strickland pops Imavov with a right hand, and his sheer momentum knocks Imavov to his back. Strickland does not want to take him to the ground, and instead they return to the clinch up against the cage wall. Strickland uses his full body weight as a weapon, as if he wanted to squeeze Imavov through the fence like French Play-Do. Imavov manages to break off and escape with a right hand over the guard, and Strickland makes him pay with a short combination. Strickland is confident in his approach, calmly walking the French fighter down and smacking him upside the head with his fists. Imavov flails and tries to parry the blows with his outstretched arms, but Strickland still manages to find his dome repeatedly. Imavov bends over upon receipt of a body kick, and Strickland pours it on with several more unanswered blows. Imavov goes for a clinch, and Strickland walks him from one side of the cage to the other before releasing him gingerly. The round ends, and both men appear spent.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
The last round commences, and Strickland strikes first with a front kick and a few punches. Imavov swings back as his punches careen off the guard, and Strickland snipes him from afar. When Imavov tries to come out swinging, Strickland intercepts him with a front kick to the belly. Imavov unloads with heavy blows, and Strickland wears them well and greets him in the middle of the cage with a flurry of his own. The two close in as they fatigue after an exchange, and they clinch up. Imavov changes his offense to slashing elbows from up tight, and Strickland dodges the brunt of them and splits. Strickland punches his way to close the distance, and Imavov catches him and tries to slice him with elbows. Strickland breaks off and connects with a jab, before going back to the clinch to frustrate the Frenchman. “Tarzan” takes the most dangerous tools away from a desperate Imavov with the clinches, and he uses his jabs and twos to keep Imavov honest. Imavov tries to break off when Strickland latches on to him, or gets off a singular elbow, but they are not enough to stave Strickland off. Imavov breaks off and looses a fury of blows, and Strickland retaliates with a slow but steady barrage. Imavov smashes two elbows on the orbital, and he pushes Strickland to the wall and breaks free. Strickland ducks down and right into an elbow, and Imavov meets him with a knee up the middle. Imavov throws with everything he has, swinging recklessly and wildly while Strickland is doing some of the same. Imavov ducks two booming hooks, and Strickland nods and motion down to the floor. The two fighters give it everything they have with an exhausted swarm of punches, knees, elbows and anything else they come up with. Strickland bullies Imavov back to the wall, and the final horn blares to signal an end to the fight card. The short turnaround appeared to work in his favor, as he should right the ship after this 25-minute affair. Next week, the UFC takes to Brazil for the first time in years. Two belts will be on the line, including one in the UFC’s very first tetralogy match, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Nassourdine Imavov via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Angelo picks Imavov because he believes Sean Strickland is a broken fighter after the Alex Pereira knockout. He notes Strickland's recent losses and short notice, while Imavov has power and grappling. He thinks Strickland's jab-heavy style won't be enough and Imavov controls the pace. He mentions Imavov's cardio concerns are overblown and that Strickland's only path is if Imavov tires.
Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum for the upset, citing concerns about Imavov's cardio over five rounds. He notes that Imavov faded in the third round of his fight against Buckley and has never gone five rounds, while Gastelum has championship-round experience against top competition. He believes Gastelum's wrestling could be a key path to victory, taking Imavov down to tire him out and avoid striking exchanges. However, he admits he doesn't feel great about the pick and likely won't bet on the fight.
Cody picks Strickland, citing his durability, high striking volume (e.g., 152 against Cannonier), and takedown defense. He notes Imavov's questionable cardio and level of competition (outside top 15). He expects a 25-minute fight or a late stoppage by Strickland, but acknowledges the line is 50/50 and not a high-confidence play.
Connor picks Strickland because Imavov has yet to look like a comfortable three-round fighter, often fading in the third round due to inefficient movement and tension. He notes that Strickland is insanely durable, calm, and consistent round to round, and that Imavov's style of head-hunting and inefficient striking will be a problem against Strickland's pressure. Connor also mentions that Imavov has feasted on shorter opponents and struggled against fighters who can get into range and trade, which Strickland does well. He acknowledges the short notice and weight change but believes Strickland's constant training mitigates those factors.
Jacob is confident in Imavov, having bet him at +100. He argues Strickland is overrated and not the same after the Pereira loss, citing his inactivity in the Cannonier fight. He believes Imavov's power at 205 will be too much and Strickland will be tentative. He sees Strickland's only path to victory if Imavov gasses, but thinks Imavov showed heart against Buckley.
Paul leans towards Imavov because he has been preparing for this card while Strickland is coming off a short-notice fight and the holidays. He questions Strickland's training and notes that judges are crediting damaging strikes more than volume jabs. However, he is not rushing to bet this fight, calling it a 50/50 main event.
Zane picks Strickland because he believes Imavov's style is a bad matchup for him. He notes that Imavov is dependent on physically bullying opponents and hasn't experienced someone who pushes back in physical tie-ups like Strickland. Zane also points out that Imavov's cardio issues are likely due to being too tense and inefficient, not weight cutting, and that Strickland doesn't give anything away. He acknowledges the size difference but thinks Strickland's consistency and pressure will be key.
Pondy all the way baby