Career Averages - Neil Magny
Career Averages - Tim Means
Neil Magny - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 13 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 13 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 5 of 11 | 45% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 9 of 19 | 47% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 5 of 11 | 45% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 9 of 19 | 47% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amosov (-400); Magny (+300)
Round 1
Your guess is as good as ours as to what the deal was today with this welterweight pairing. Once buried on the prelims, it now headlines them in open defiance of a rumor swirling that Magny was forced out of the fight. Still very much on the card, grizzled veteran and proud trap fight setter Magny (31-13, 23-12 UFC) may be the biggest underdog on the card despite being on his first win streak since 2022. The reason for the odds discrepancy is because he is facing once-beaten former Bellator king Amosov (28-1, 0-0 UFC), who had a de facto tune-up fight in March against Curtis Millender on the regionals before bouncing into the UFC. Grappling is likely about to be the name of the game for the next 15 minutes or fewer, and referee Herb Dean will oversee the proceedings. There is no sign of a glove touch between the two.
Magny leads the dance with a leg kick, and Amosov throws one back that is checked. Magny jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he dodges to avoid a looping counter. Magny sticks and moves, and he leans as a head kick grazes the side of his melon. Magny’s jab puts him too close to the wrestler, who grabs hold of him and tries to perform a double from behind. He chains it into a single, and Magny breaks out of it all and pops Amosov with a jab and a knee. They tie up, and Amosov looks for a short shot but takes a few more knees. The clinch leads to Amosov going for a single, and Magny falls to his back as Amosov establishes half guard. Amosov wraps his left arm around the head, possibly setting up an arm-triangle choke while simultaneously looking to pass guard with his legs. Magny controls his foe’s left arm to thwart a submission coming together, as well as a guard pass.
Amosov nails his foe with a short left, and he climbs up and over to grab hold of an anaconda choke while skipping straight past mount. The Ukrainian rolls through it to hold on in a nearly north-south posture, and the submission is now ironclad. Magny pushes off on his adversary’s ankle, arm and anything else he can grab hold of, hoping to get some space and save himself, to no avail.
Before he goes out on his shield, Magny taps out on Amosov’s posterior. Just like that, “Dynamo” has passed his first UFC test with flying colors, putting away a longtime veteran in just a couple minutes. On the microphone, Amosov introduces himself to his new company, saying “hi” to the other men at 170 pounds that he can dance with soon.
The Official Result
Yaroslav Amosov def. Neil Magny R1 3:14 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Cody picks Amosov, citing his elite takedown defense and striking. He acknowledges Magny's experience and cardio but thinks Amosov's skills will prevail. He expects Amosov to win the first two rounds and possibly finish.
Connor also picks Amosov, but notes that Amosov has cut back on his striking and become more grappling-focused, which could be a problem against certain opponents. However, he believes Magny is a good matchup for Amosov's style. He foresees a dominant win but warns that Amosov may struggle against fighters like Ian Garry who can stuff takedowns.
Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov confidently, highlighting his elite wrestling and submission skills. He notes Neil Magny's history of being submitted and outgrappled, and believes Amosov will pass the 'Neil Magny test' with a submission. He projects Amosov as a -300 favorite.
Paul leans toward Magny as a live dog, citing too many question marks with Amosov's activity and motivation. He thinks Magny's experience and cardio could pay off if Amosov fades, but is not confident enough to lay the price. He suggests live betting Magny.
Zane picks Amosov confidently, predicting a dominant grappling performance. He notes that Magny is bad off his back and that Amosov's wrestling and top pressure will be too much. He compares it to Magny's losses against strong wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and RDA. He expects Amosov to get a takedown early and transition to a submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 1 | 4:43 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 73 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:22 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 24 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 27 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 18 of 44 | 40% | 11 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 |
| Neil Magny | 31 of 57 | 54% | 28 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 18 of 32 | 56% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Neil Magny | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-475); Magny (+350)
Round 1
Two of the most experienced welterweights in the company wage battle as the main card rolls on, with betting lines a lot wider than most would expect. A substantial favorite of -400 or above, the younger Matthews (22-7, 15-7 UFC) is on his first three-fight win streak in five years. On the other side of the coin, the 38-year-old Magny (30-13, 23-12 UFC) has dropped two of three, all knockouts. The respectful gentlemen will not likely need any refs to keep things clean, but they nevertheless will be joined by referee Jim Perdios. A cordial fist bump is exchanged.
The two swat at one another early with single distant strikes, and Matthews have wider arcs on them but are less accurate. Magny bounces off the cage wall to let go with a low kick, and he is knocked back from a right hand. Magny recovers and flicks out his jab, and he takes a strong calf kick that gives him pause. Magny’s jab bounces off the forehead, and he pushes off the face and his finger grazes the eye. Perdios tells them to be careful, and they carry on.
Matthews chips at the front leg, and Magny spurs into action with a long flurry of punches that largely miss the mark. “The Haitian Sensation” goes after a takedown, and Matthews stops it in its tracks and backs Magny off with a clubbing right hand. Matthews digs a left to the liver and two rights to the head, and he lets Magny unload on him so he can counter back. Magny stays behind his jab, and when Matthews closes in, Magny ties him up. Matthews gets free, and Magny shoots in deep for a double. Matthews tries to defend with a guillotine on the way down, and Magny fights the hand to alleviate the pressure. Magny cannot fight off the choke, and Matthews rolls him over to full mount with one arm holding tight. Matthews squeezes with all his weight, and Magny relaxes and his right arm starts to fall to the side. Perdios waves the fight off right at the bell for a technical submission while saying, “he’s out,” and Magny immediately shouts “No” several times as he stands back up to declare that he is not out. Despite that Perdios called off the fight, he goes back on his decision and says that the fight is still on and that the round is over. This is extremely confusing, as Perdios came into contact with the fighters a moment before the horn sounded, so by definition it should go down as a tech sub or possibly a no contest due to a premature stoppage. Magny catches a serious break here, and he goes back to his corner mad as can be.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
We have reached Round 2 despite the stoppage-non-stoppage. Magny appears fine again, and Matthews lays into him with early offense. The punches and elbows from Matthews lead to a takedown from him, and he drags the grizzled veteran to the floor. From there, Matthews starts to impose his grappling game, comfortably shifting from position to position. “The Celtic Kid” relocates himself into a mounted triangle, with Perdios watching on closely. Magny hangs on tight, not giving up even in a bad, bad way. Magny manages to break out of the sub, but he still finds himself on his back absorbing strikes when not dealing with a submission attempt, setup or trap. Matthews softens up the midsection and moves to half guard, and he hunts for an arm-triangle choke at the same time. The dueling actions allow Magny to get out of the choke and wrap up his opponent. Matthews rides out the remainder of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 3
The elder statesman presses the action to start the final round, and he strikes his way into a trip attempt. Matthews remains upright without issue, and he pushes Magny back to reset. Magny tackles his man to the canvas, and Matthews clings to a guillotine choke like before. With the choke in, Matthews uses his feet to walk across the cage wall and flip himself over, but Magny frees himself before getting mounted. Both stand up, and Magny knees the Aussie in the body a few times. Magny presses Matthews down to knee him in the face in the clinch, and he does work with body shots. Matthews busts out of the clinch and retreats, and Magny chases after him and hurts him with a combination of punches. Magny strikes his way into securing a takedown, and he steps into full mount. Matthews scrambles and turns over to get Magny off of him, and he counters with a single as Magny stands up. Magny lifts Matthews up during a takedown and was going to perform a pro wrestling move but spiking is illegal so he thinks twice.
Using his long arms, Magny laces them beneath Matthews’ armpits and under the throat with a surprise brabo choke. Matthews does not panic, even though he has taken some shots and may be fading. As Magny exerts heavy chest pressure with the choke tight as a drum, Matthews has no way out. Before long, he taps out, and Magny has staged the incredible comeback that would only be shocking if it was not Neil “Expletive Deleted” Magny.
Think back to Magny vs. Hector Lombard, or when he snared Daniel Rodriguez in a choke. For the latter, that was the last time Magny landed a submission—and it was a brabo choke then, too. The victor walks back to his corner grinning from ear to ear, even as the crowd does not like it. The story on this match may not be done here, depending on if there is an official review or appeal of the actions in the first round. For the time being, Magny has done it again, pulling off a third-round victory after taking a beating. Matthews is the first fighter repping Oceania tonight to come up short, with their record currently 7-1 with three more to go tonight.
The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Jake Matthews R3 3:08 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Jake Matthews, the biggest favorite on the card, citing his well-rounded skills and high level of competition. He believes Matthews will avoid Magny's clinch game and use takedowns and busy hands to win. He notes that Magny struggles against younger, faster fighters and that Matthews is not stupid enough to engage in a clinch battle.
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He believes Matthews has finally put it together and is well-rounded with good boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He thinks Magny is on the decline and has been submitted in six of his UFC losses.
Cody picks Matthews, noting he has finally become consistent and is putting his skills together. He believes Matthews is a better striker than Magny now and can defend takedowns, forcing a striking match where Matthews should outland Magny. He also cites the hometown advantage and Magny's recent struggles against leg kicks and younger fighters.
Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that Magny's jab-dependent pressure game has faded. He notes that Magny's recent wins have come against opponents who fell apart, and that Matthews's improved combination punching and wrestling could exploit Magny's vulnerabilities. Connor is cautious because Matthews has a history of reverting to a bad back-foot boxing style, but he thinks Matthews's recent performances show he has moved past that.
James picks Jake Matthews confidently, stating he is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and power. He notes Matthews is in his prime at 31 and on the best run of his career, while Magny is an aging veteran with a poor ground game. He expects Matthews to take Magny down at will and possibly finish, but predicts a clear decision (30-27 or 29-28) as most likely.
James confidently picks Jake Matthews, noting he is the biggest favorite on the card. He predicts a finish, possibly by arm triangle, as Magny is older and has been finished recently. He believes Matthews is in his prime and should win easily.
The host expects Matthews to take a grapple-heavy approach like his last fight. He acknowledges Magny could have an advantage if the fight goes into deeper water, but thinks Matthews will do enough in the first 10-12 minutes to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Jake Matthews, believing his well-rounded game and experience against long fighters like Neil Magny will pay off. He notes Matthews' recent submission win and thinks he can replicate that success. He predicts a TKO via low kicks and follow-up shots, calling it a coming-out party.
Zane picks Matthews, citing his recent improvements in combination punching and assertiveness. He notes that Magny looks vulnerable on the feet now and has lost his ability to put pressure with his jab. Zane thinks Matthews's wrestling and willingness to mix it up could be key, as Magny has historically struggled against wrestlers. He acknowledges that Matthews's past struggles are a concern, but believes the current version of Matthews is better.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 80 of 113 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 42 of 69 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 29 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 51 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 18 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 42 of 67 | 62% | 38 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 19 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 21 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 20 of 42 | 47% | 5 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 13 | 17 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 17 of 36 | 47% | 13 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 18 of 36 | 50% | 5 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 11 | 15 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 25 of 31 | 80% | 25 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 21 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.
Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Neil Magny | 2 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Neil Magny | 2 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 21 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 21 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)
Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.
Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.
Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.
Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.
Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.
The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.
Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Morales | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Neil Magny | 1 | 34 of 40 | 85% | 39 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Morales | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Neil Magny | 1 | 34 of 40 | 85% | 39 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Morales | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Neil Magny | 34 of 40 | 85% | 30 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Morales | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Neil Magny | 34 of 40 | 85% | 30 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 35 |
Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.
Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.
Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.
Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 57 of 102 | 55% | 110 of 159 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 45 of 67 | 67% | 100 of 128 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 6:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 21 of 30 | 70% | 67 of 79 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 46 of 62 | 74% | 80 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 13 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 57 of 102 | 55% | 52 of 95 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 13 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 44 of 56 |
| Mike Malott | 45 of 67 | 67% | 19 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 23 | 30 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 20 of 31 | 64% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 17 | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 21 of 30 | 70% | 14 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 46 of 62 | 74% | 44 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 56 |
| Mike Malott | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-340), Magny (+270)
Round 1
With Malott looking to show he is a Top 15 fighter, and Magny aiming to prove that he can do more than man the velvet rope for that category even at age 36, only one is likely to get his wish. Kevin Macdonald is the referee. Both fighters are in orthodox stance, and Malott lands a front kick to Magny’s lead leg immediately. Magny comes forward behind a high guard and Malott goes back to the lead leg with another push kick. Moments later, he hits Magny with a calf kick to that leg, then another. A strategy appears to be emerging. Malott steps in behind an overhand right, and Magny meets him, grabbing a clinch. Malott immediately shoves him off. Malott surges forward with a pair of big looping hooks. They fall short but succeed in backing Magny straight to the fence. Malott throws a lightning-fast head kick, but Magny just as quickly steps inside and takes the clinch again. Malott drives Magny to the fence and pummels his way out of the position, moving away from the cage and forcing Magny to follow. Malott goes back to the leg kicks, all aimed at the lead left leg of Magny. Malott is now getting Magny to bite on hip feints, indicating the effect the kicks have had so far. Malott lands a glancing low kick at the 10-second clapper, the last offense of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 2
Magny throws a low kick to open the round, which Malott checks. Magny stalks forward and Malott gives ground, then plants and catches Magny with a clean two-punch combination that stings. Malott lands an inside kick to the lead leg, followed by a body kick on the other side. Magny comes crashing forward, but Malott uses a body lock to take him down, landing in full guard. Magny works to create some space to escape, but Malott more or less lets him up. Malott closes the distance again and uses a body lock and trip to dump the taller man to the floor at the base of the fence. Malott is in a sort of loose half guard, hovering over Magny, and when he dives in with an elbow strike, Magny locks down his right leg. Malott gets a few shots in from half guard, then stands over Magny. Magny throws a upkick and Malott jumps right back onto him, moving to mount. Magny spins to put his feet against the fence, looking to use the cage to bridge and escape, but Malott scoots him away from the cage and stays in mount, throwing methodical, heavy elbows and forearms. Malott isolates Magny’s left arm, perhaps considering a submission, but at the 10-second clapper gives up on it and throws strikes until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 3
Malott throws a leg kick and backs Magny up with punches, then changes levels and more or less bowls him over for a fast takedown, landing in mount. Magny wraps his arms around Malott, keeping him from posturing up and doing major damage, then bucks and returns to his feet. Malott follows him across the cage and launches himself at his hips, scoring another easy takedown. Magny gets to full guard, then grapevines the legs, trying to keep Malott from going anywhere. Malott throws some short strikes before standing up out of guard and dives back in, but ends up in full guard again. Magny stands and Malott grabs a guillotine, pulling guard as he does, but Magny pops his head out and ends up on top, where he starts throwing punches with some urgency. Malott is suddenly looking exhausted and Magny is all over him. Malott turns to his side, but otherwise offers no real defense as Magny continues throwing a stream of unblocked punches with both hands. There’s less than 30 seconds left. Referee Macdonald is looking on closely, and as motivated as he might be to avoid any possibility of a quick stoppage, after at least two dozen unanswered blows, he interposes himself for the TKO with just 15 seconds left on the clock. What a comeback by the ageless, indefatigable Neil Magny.
The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Mike Malott R3 4:45 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Malott, viewing this as a showcase for the Canadian prospect. He acknowledges Magny's experience and toughness but notes Magny has looked declining in recent fights. He warns against overexposure on Malott since this is his toughest opponent, but plans to have some action on him.
Big Brady is very confident in Malott, calling it a setup fight. He notes Malott is dangerous everywhere with 100% finish rate, while Magny is 36, has taken damage, and has been submitted six times. He expects Malott to get a takedown and submit Magny in the first round.
Cody is confident Malott wins, citing his size, strength, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Malott's quick finishes but acknowledges Magny's durability and cardio. He suggests Malott by decision as a prop because Magny is tough to finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mike Malott to win but is hesitant due to Malott's unproven ceiling and Magny's veteran tactics. He acknowledges Malott's dangerous finishing ability and guillotine series, but worries about Magny's clinch game and length. He notes Magny has been fading but has also been a tough fade historically. He passes on betting the -400 line.
Vreeland picks Magny as a dog, citing the massive step up in competition for Malott. He notes Magny's size, reach advantage, and ability to impose his game plan. Vreeland questions Malott's path to victory, doubting he can outwrestle Magny or overcome the reach disadvantage on the feet. He sees value in the plus money.
Fox also picks Magny, agreeing with Vreeland on the step up in competition. He notes Magny's reach advantage and good wrestling defense. Fox doesn't see a clear path for Malott, as Magny is a tall fighter who knows how to use his reach. He likes the dog money.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Magny vs Malott.
I fully expect Malott to play with Magny on the feet, eventually drag the fight to the ground, and strangle him with a submission. Malott's grappling advantage is huge, and Magny has historically struggled against strong grapplers. The -365 line is a bit wide for a prospect against a veteran, but I think the fight will look like a cakewalk for Malott. I'm looking for a first-round submission.
Paul agrees Malott wins but won't bet the -400 moneyline. He thinks Malott has the power and grappling advantage but Magny is durable and has gone the distance with top guys. He considers Malott by decision as a possible prop.
The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott, citing Magny's age and recent KO loss to Ian Garry. He trusts Malott's pressure and leg kicks, and predicts a submission via arm triangle in round two. He also mentions Magny's personal issues (custody battle) as a potential distraction.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 51 of 93 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 91 of 150 | 60% | 111 of 171 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 20 of 32 | 62% | 33 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 40 of 65 | 61% | 43 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 27 of 66 | 40% | 10 of 41 | 7 of 11 | 10 of 14 | 25 of 61 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 91 of 150 | 60% | 32 of 90 | 16 of 17 | 43 of 43 | 84 of 140 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 8 of 24 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 7 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 20 of 32 | 62% | 5 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 11 of 27 | 40% | 5 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 31 of 53 | 58% | 9 of 30 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 16 | 28 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 8 of 15 | 53% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 40 of 65 | 61% | 18 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 16 | 37 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo is confident in Ian Garry, believing his striking speed and timing will keep Neil Magny at range and prevent him from using his grappling. He notes that Magny is stepping up on short notice and that Garry has shown he can overcome adversity, as in the Song Kenan fight. He expects a clear decision win similar to Garry's win over Darian Weeks.
Big Brady picks Ian Garry to win by third-round knockout, citing Garry's size, cardio, and power advantage. He notes Magny has been finished in 8 of 10 losses and struggled against Phil Rowe. Brady worries about Garry's striking defense but believes Magny lacks the power to exploit it.
Cody acknowledges Garry's talent but notes his past struggles and poor takedown defense. He thinks Magny could pose problems with wrestling, but Magny looked washed in his last fight. He expects Garry to win, likely by decision, but doesn't love the -400 line. He suggests Garry may not add much value to parlays.
Daniel Levi is sold on Ian Machado Garry, calling him one of the best prospects in the welterweight division. He notes that Garry has good takedown defense, a solid get-up game, and has gone five rounds. Levi believes Garry will not fall into the trap of clinching with Magny, as other prospects have, because of his range management and footwork. He acknowledges the price is trash at -500 but still likes Garry to win.
Lucrative James picks Ian Garry to dominate, citing the 11-year age difference, Magny's short notice, and Magny's tendency to get finished when he loses. He believes Garry has a good chance of finishing Magny, though he notes Garry is more of a point striker. He prefers the finish prop over decision.
Garry is the sharper striker and should land clean shots down the pipe. Magny struggles against technical strikers and has been finished before. Garry's ability to avoid the cage and pivot off will prevent Magny from grinding him. Expect a knockout finish, making the KO prop at even money a strong play.
The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Neil Magny. He notes Garry's rapid improvement, judo background, and takedown defense. He thinks Garry will pick at range, chop at the legs, and possibly finish early. He also mentions Magny taking the fight on short notice and at 170 lbs, which favors Garry. He predicts a first-round KO after leg kicks.
Tim Means - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 14 of 24 | 58% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 14 of 24 | 58% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Court McGee, believing the fight is 50-50 and McGee's wrestling and pressure can be the difference. He notes Tim Means is a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers unjustified given both fighters are old and worn. He placed a small bet on McGee at +195.
Big Brady is hesitant on this fight, noting that both fighters are veterans and he doesn't trust either. He leans towards Tim Means because he believes Means still has a little left in the tank, while Court McGee hasn't had a finish since 2010 and has been losing to lower-level competition. He expects McGee to attempt takedowns but thinks Means will do better work on the feet and win a decision.
Cody picks McGee, citing his home-field advantage in Utah and cardio. He notes Means' tendency to gas and get submitted. He believes McGee can outlast Means and possibly win by submission.
Connor picks Means based on sentiment, acknowledging it's not a sound analysis. He notes that Means is old and has lost speed, but Court McGee is not a powerful striker and Means' craft might be enough. He wants Means to go out on a win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tim Means, citing his slick striking and improved wrestling. He notes that Court McGee has slowed down drastically and was nearly beaten by Alex Morono. Vreeland expects Means to knock out McGee, though he is hesitant to lay heavy chalk on a fighter who has lost four of his last five.
The host believes Tim Means is the better overall fighter and will utilize his clinch with knees and elbows, as well as distance striking with kicks and long-range weapons, to pick apart Court McGee. He expects Means to win on the scorecards, noting that McGee lacks significant knockout power.
Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He thinks McGee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees value at plus 170 and expects a close decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Court McGee over Tim Means, citing McGee's training at altitude in Utah as a key advantage. He notes both fighters are past their prime but believes McGee is less finishable and will employ a boring cage control game, failing takedowns but winning the pressure game. He predicts a decision victory for McGee, as neither fighter is likely to finish early.
Zane also picks Means for sentimental reasons, calling himself a long-time Dirty Bird fan. He acknowledges that Means has lost a step but notes that McGee is not a dangerous striker and Means' experience might carry him. He admits it's not a pick based on sound analysis.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 7 of 17 | 41% | 1 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 7 of 17 | 41% | 1 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident Uroš Medić wins, citing his youth, speed, power, and superior striking. He notes Medić has a 100% finish rate and killer instinct. The only concern is Medić's 46% takedown defense, but he thinks Tim Means at 40 years old may not be able to exploit it. He expects a finish and suggests waiting for prop bets, hoping for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.
Cody picks Means as a dog, citing his experience and cleaner striking. He notes Means' body work and straight left, and believes he can hurt Medić, who has been rocked before. However, he admits Means' age and cardio are concerns, making it a doger pass.
Daniel thinks Means is durable but at 40 may not dig deep when hurt. He notes Medić is younger, more dangerous, and showed heart in the Semelsberger fight. He leans Medić but won't bet at -310, though he might take Means as a dog if the price gets better.
Medić is younger, faster, and more powerful. Means is 40 with a lot of mileage. Medić's Muay Thai and power should overwhelm Means as the fight goes on. I expect Medić to finish Means, possibly by knockout. The inside distance prop is a good option.
Paul also picks Means, highlighting his experience against better competition and his opportunistic submission game. He thinks Means' grappling advantage could be key, as Medić has poor takedown defense. He calls it a clear doger pass.
The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić, calling him more explosive and dangerous on the feet. He criticizes Tim Means as hitting a veteran decline and notes his loss to Matt Semelsberger. He highlights Medić's good cardio and nasty body kicks, predicting a TKO via liver shot. He also mentions Medić's near-finish of Orolbai and his ability to handle Means' grinding style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 2 | 104 of 143 | 72% | 134 of 178 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 51 of 103 | 49% | 56 of 110 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 1 | 39 of 53 | 73% | 44 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 0 | 48 of 69 | 69% | 73 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:29 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 29 of 50 | 58% | 32 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 1 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 104 of 143 | 72% | 66 of 103 | 33 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 56 of 87 | 30 of 35 | 18 of 21 |
| André Fialho | 51 of 103 | 49% | 32 of 75 | 15 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 35 of 86 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 39 of 53 | 73% | 21 of 34 | 16 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 36 | 8 of 10 | 6 of 7 |
| André Fialho | 19 of 47 | 40% | 8 of 31 | 8 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 48 of 69 | 69% | 33 of 53 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 39 | 14 of 16 | 12 of 14 |
| André Fialho | 29 of 50 | 58% | 24 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 39 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 17 of 21 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Means can ugly up the fight and squeak out a close decision. He notes Means is tough, busy, and has fought a who's who of welterweights. However, he is concerned about Means' age (39) and Fialho's power. He has very low confidence.
Big Brady picks André Fialho to win by first-round knockout, citing his power advantage and youth (10 years younger). He notes both fighters have poor durability, but Fialho hits like a truck. He worries about Fialho's horrible cardio and thinks he must finish early. He says nobody should be confident on either side.
Cody picks Tim Means as a live underdog, citing Fialho's poor chin and hesitancy against strikers. He notes Means's crafty striking, wrestling, and experience. He believes Means can outwork Fialho, who has been knocked out by lesser competition.
Daniel hesitantly picks Fialho based on youth and power, but admits he doesn't trust either fighter. He notes Means is 39 and doesn't react well to shots anymore, while Fialho has three straight KO losses. He thinks Means is the better technical fighter but age and chin are concerns. He expects a violent fight and leans Fialho by KO, but with low confidence.
Lucrative James feels Fialho will knock out Means, citing Means' declining durability and reaction times. He likes Fialho's left hook and calm striking style. He considers betting Fialho inside the distance but notes the line is -135, which he doesn't love. He also mentions Means decision as a possible hedge.
The host picks Fialho to win by first-round knockout, despite normally fading him. He notes Fialho's power advantage and Means' questionable durability and age (39). He expects Fialho to land a barrage early and finish Means. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a safer play, expecting either an early Fialho KO or a late Means finish.
Paul picks Tim Means simply because he refuses to lay chalk on Fialho. He notes both fighters are quick starters and expects a finish. He has no strong confidence but likes the plus money.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward André Fialho but changes his pick to Tim Means after a lengthy internal debate. He worries about Means' age and declining athleticism but has a 'sneaky feeling' Means will catch Fialho. He notes Fialho's tendency to get knocked out and Means' effective one-two combinations. He predicts a TKO in round one, with Means backing Fialho against the cage and landing a one-two. He admits he is hesitant and almost picked Fialho.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 0 | 40 of 87 | 45% | 45 of 92 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 33 of 92 | 35% | 42 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 0 | 32 of 64 | 50% | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 18 of 58 | 31% | 27 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Morono | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 40 of 87 | 45% | 16 of 52 | 18 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 74 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 33 of 92 | 35% | 29 of 86 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 86 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 32 of 64 | 50% | 10 of 32 | 16 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 52 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 18 of 58 | 31% | 16 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 52 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Morono | 8 of 23 | 34% | 6 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 15 of 34 | 44% | 13 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans on Morono, noting his clean striking and recent improvements. He says Tim Means is gritty and well-rounded, and that unless you're ranked or dangerous, you shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favorite over Means. He calls it a close fight and is not betting on it.
Big Brady is a huge Tim Means fan but has serious concerns about Means' durability at 39 years old and after 48 fights. He notes Means has been getting dropped and finished recently, and questions his focus as he seems more into coaching. Brady compares this to the Morono vs. Cerrone fight, predicting Morono will land a big shot, swarm, and finish Means. He picks Morono by second-round knockout and suggests Means may retire after this fight.
Cody picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and 50 pro fights, leading to durability and speed decline. He notes Means' tendency to gas after the first round and Morono's volume and pressure. He expects Morono to chew away at Means and possibly get a late stoppage. He acknowledges Means' skill but believes his best days are behind him.
Connor picks Morono, agreeing that Means is past his prime and gets hurt too often. He highlights Morono's lateral movement, jab, and counter-punching, which will frustrate Means. He thinks Means will have moments but ultimately lose a decision or get dropped.
Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono but with low confidence, citing Tim Means' age (39-40) and declining durability as the deciding factor. He notes that statistically, Means is competitive and would be a live dog if younger, but Means' recent fights show he can't take damage like before. Levi expects a competitive fight but favors Morono's unorthodox style and durability. He passes on betting due to the price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation.
Morono's pressure, pace, and volume will be too much for Means, who has diminished durability at 39. Means is the better technical striker but can't take shots like before. Morono will march forward, land big shots, and likely find a knockout or submission. Means may have moments but Morono's relentless style will overwhelm him.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Morono. He notes that Means gasses after 6-7 minutes and lacks a grappling game. He mentions that Morono might mix in takedowns and fish for a submission, and that the market has moved on that prop. He sees Morono as the rightful favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, noting that he had a full training camp and has better hand speed and cardio. He believes Tim Means has slowed down and will struggle with Morono's pace. He predicts a dominant decision or a late finish.
Zane picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and tendency to get hurt now. He notes that Means' pressure-counter style leaves him vulnerable, and Morono's awkward but effective striking, good footwork, and jab will cause problems. He thinks Morono will land a big counter and potentially drop Means, though a decision is likely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 0 | 47 of 115 | 40% | 143 of 215 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 42 of 78 | 53% | 56 of 96 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 25 of 42 | 59% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 48 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 14 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 74 of 79 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 16 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 47 of 115 | 40% | 18 of 64 | 18 of 36 | 11 of 15 | 37 of 103 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 |
| Tim Means | 42 of 78 | 53% | 25 of 52 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 11 | 35 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 17 of 49 | 34% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 25 of 42 | 59% | 16 of 29 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 20 of 53 | 37% | 7 of 32 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 13 of 29 | 44% | 5 of 16 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 10 of 13 | 76% | 3 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Tim Means | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
An interesting, all-action welterweight contest will serve as the co-main attraction of this Fight Night event, with a storied veteran battling it out against a man fighting his way back to contention. At 38 years of age, Means (32-13-1, 1 NC; 14-10, 1 NC UFC) is still cruising in the division, with three wins in his last four including a few stellar performances over Nicolas Dalby and Mike Perry in recent memory. While his adversary Griffin (18-9, 6-7 UFC) started off going just 3-6 in the Octagon, he has turned things around as of late with a similar 3-1 stretch as Means. Drawing the assignment is referee Dan Miragliotta, and the 170-pounders do not touch gloves as they want to immediately get down to business. They start trading almost immediately, with rangy punches and chopping low kicks to match the other. Griffin fires a left hand over the top, and a right hand knocks Means down to his backside. Griffin leaps on top to finish the job, and Means latches on to an armbar off his back to keep his man honest and survive the onslaught. As Means continues to work, he turns to his side, grabs hold of a leg and drives Griffin back to the wall. Means separates, and he appears to have his bearings back as he measures a high kick from his lead leg and a body kick from his rear. Means just misses with a knee as Griffin bears down on him with a combination, and he works the calf to slow down the advancing Griffin. “The Dirty Bird” whiffs on a one-two into a head kick, but the calf kick that follows does connect. Griffin throws fire with a right hand to stun Means for a moment, as he chains it into a power punch that Means tanks seemingly without issue. Means continues to do work on the upper calf, making investments as he also strikes the body. Griffin snaps out a jab that gest Means’ attention, and a right hand that follows it stings Means. Means gives chase with a high kick, and Griffin walks through a pair of open-handed slaps so that he can shoot in for a double. Means keeps his balance as they remain clinched until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Means strikes first in the form of a slapping low kick. The legs from Means continue to fly, and he draws Griffin into a brief but fierce slugfest. The punches turn to slaps for Means, which could signify some sort of damage to a hand, but he shucks any of those concerns by throwing a punch that pops Griffin in the chops. Means keeps Griffin guessing with head kicks, and Griffin finds his way in to land a heavy low kick. Means slaps him upside the head like a Diaz brother, only they are intended as damaging strikes and not disrespectful ones. Griffin jabs his way in, and he blocks a head kick once closing in. Griffin intercepts a rushing Means with a kick to the lead calf, and Means winces and tries to pay Griffin back. Means cuts his opponent off as he advances, and this slows the offense coming back his direction. Means works the body with a left and a right, and he slides back to plant the ball of his foot on the breadbasket before Griffin can land him. The two trade body kicks, and Means jumps at his adversary with a knee that glances off the side. Griffin considers a level change, and as this fails, he hops back. Means hammers a low kick on the inside of the knee, and this slows the movement momentarily. Means walks face-first into a right hand, and this rocks Means and separates him from his balance. As Means falls to the ground, Griffin finds himself taking top position while punching the side. They trade short blows as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 3
Means comes out of his corner aggressively, and he strikes his way into a takedown effort. Griffin stuffs it and drops to his knees, and Means smashes his own knee into the sternum. Griffin reels and whirls around to counter Means’ takedown with his own attempt, and he manages to suck Means’ legs out and drag him to the floor. Means squeezes tightly to keep Griffin pinned to him, and he lands several heel strikes to the thigh as he constantly remains busy off his back with irritating blows. Griffin remains heavy with top pressure and not willing to sit up and fall into potential submission danger, as he wisely grinds out and considers a guard pass. Means turns to his side in an effort to escape, but Griffin hangs on to keep him trapped. Means scoots his back to the wall, only for “Pain” to yank him back down. When Griffin postures up to rain down blows, Means attacks with a submission attempt that he uses to stand back up. Griffin pressures him against the wall and locks his hands with a double, and this sets Means on his seat again much to the disappointment of “The Dirty Bird.” Means continues to smack Griffin with short, frustrating strikes to the body and head, all while working his way to his knees to get upright. Griffin pursues a single, and he lowers his head right into a knee that Means cracks him with. Means takes Griffin down to turn the tables, and he rips the body with a fierce knee before securing a double with seconds to spare. For one final exclamation point, Means lifts his opponent up and slams him down hard. The fight comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means (29-28 Griffin)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)
The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Tim Means via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Griffin's power has improved recently, as seen in his knockout of Aalon Cruz, while Means' durability has declined with age and damage. He mentions that Means has been hurt in recent fights by lesser punchers, and Griffin's durability is excellent. He expects Griffin to land hard shots and finish Means.
Cody acknowledges Tim Means' plus money appeal but points to Means' durability issues at 38 years old and his tendency to fade in later rounds. He notes that Means has been relying more on wrestling as he ages, but Max Griffin has good takedown defense (as seen against Neil Magny) and a solid jab. Cody expects Griffin to beat Means to the jab, stuff takedowns, and eventually land a big shot or win two rounds. He is not betting the fight but picks Griffin.
Daniel Levi picks Max Griffin, citing his momentum, confidence, and aspirations to break into the top 15. He notes Griffin's dangerous striking and recent close fight with Neil Magny. He questions Tim Means' durability and suggests Means may be near retirement. However, he has no interest in laying the -190 price and will just watch.
Jacob picks Tim Means, expecting him to survive Griffin's early power and then wear him down with pace, pressure, and wrestling. He compares it to Griffin's fight with Neil Magny, where Griffin faded. Jacob thinks Means wins by decision.
Griffin has athletic advantages and more left in the tank compared to Means, who is slowing down. Means has better combinations but Griffin's power could catch him. Griffin by knockout at +250 is appealing, but no bet at the current moneyline. Live betting Griffin if Means has early success is a potential strategy.
Paul leans toward Tim Means as a dog, expecting a close stand-up fight where Means may get a hot start. However, he admits Means' cardio and durability are concerns, and he does not love the bet. He picks Means for the show but says he won't bet it, noting the over 2.5 rounds at -160 seems about right.
The MMA Guru picks Max Griffin over Tim Means, believing Griffin's calf kicks will be effective against Means' heavy lead leg. He notes Griffin's improved boxing and ability to drop opponents, as seen against Neil Magny. He thinks Means, at 38 and coming off a loss to Kevin Holland, will struggle with Griffin's pressure and predicts Griffin wins by 29-28 decision, taking over as the fight goes on.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 25 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 53 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 18 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 27 of 70 | 38% | 44 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 21 of 46 | 45% | 8 of 25 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 36 of 90 | 40% | 26 of 71 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 10 | 33 of 85 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 22 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 27 of 70 | 38% | 21 of 57 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 24 of 65 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-275), Means (+220)
Round 1
With the loss of Cerrone vs. Lauzon (again), this welterweight banger has been elevated to the co-main event slot. UFC President Dana White should keep his checkbook handy to write out a bonus for this one (and the rest of the night, to boot), if the histories of “The Dirty Bird” Means (32-12-1, 1 NC; 14-9, 1 NC UFC) and “Trailblazer” Holland (22-7, 1 NC; 9-4, 1 NC UFC) are any indication of what to expect now. Identical knockout rates of 59% are celebrated by both men, and they have both landed exactly five submissions to their credit as well. Good-spirited action and excitement is about to come, and referee Kerry Hatley practically has to keep them back in their corners before sprinting out to battle. The 170ers do touch gloves, and Means uses a push kick to the knee to back Holland away from him early. Holland paws out with a left over the head, and Means walks in to brawl. Holland steps back and rips a left to the jaw on the inside, and he lands again to force Means into a double-leg takedown attempt. The crowd starts to boo immediately, and Holland shoves him back and lets go with a left. Holland powers off the cage wall with a flurry of fists, and Means greets him with a few of his own. Means takes a few punches on the inside to land a few, and “Trailblazer” slashes with a clean elbow over the top to break them up. Holland goes to the body with a side kick and then up high with a head kick, and he charges in with a knee right down Broadway. Means is tough and does not flinch, and instead spins with a wheel kick. Means catches a knee from his opponent, and he lifts Holland up and sets him down on the mat. Holland springs up and connects with three blistering punches to sting Means. Means tries to stop the blows from scoring by tying Holland up and pressing him into the wall, and he gathers himself and works the thigh with knees. Holland pushes away to take the center of the cage back, and he sticks out several jabs and a head kick. Means blows his nose out from the kick, and Holland puts three punches on him to knock Means’ head around. They talk to one another with seemingly friendly banter about hitting each other, and Holland takes a few steps back to get off three kicks in rapid succession. Holland chains together a few punches, and Means replies and draws a huge smile out of “Trailblazer.” They slug it out recklessly and entertainingly, and Holland resets first so he can let loose with a high kick. Holland splits the guard with a left hand, and Means is hurt. Two more punches from the Texan connect cleanly, forcing a takedown effort from Means. Holland hits the mat and powers right back up, and the round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
Gloves get touched by the action-packed welterweights before engaging, and they both score side kicks to start off the round. Means targets the body, and Holland tags him with four or five punches before Means can react. Holland spins with a back fist that comes up short, and when he turns about, Holland goes to his lead leg. Means blocks several punches, and Holland swarms him with punches before measuring Means with punches as Means shells up against the wall ready to counter.
Holland lets Means off the hook so that he can fight at his safer range, and when back in his preferred distance, he clocks Means with a right hand that strips Means legs away almost instantly. Before falling over, Means leans into a takedown try, but he leaves his neck exposed. They do not even hit the mat before Holland uses his long arms to snake around the neck, where he snatches up a smooth brabo choke. It is tight in a hurry, and when the two land on the ground, Means turns to his side but is in even worse position than before. Knowing his goose is cooked, Means does not fight it any further or risk going out from this blood choke, and he wisely surrenders.
“Trailblazer” has announced himself as a force to be reckoned with in his new division, and the Texas crowd bellows its affection for its local fighter.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Tim Means R2 1:28 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his striking accuracy and power. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but believes Tim Means doesn't have the raw athleticism or power to exploit it like others. He thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy but still picks Holland.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round knockout. He notes Holland has a significant reach advantage and power, while Means is older with diminishing durability and chin. He believes Means' best chance is grappling, but Means rarely implements that game plan, and Holland's BJJ black belt and improved get-up game should keep the fight standing where Holland can knock him out.
Cody is high on Kevin Holland at 170, citing his improved takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and size advantage. He thinks Tim Means lacks the wrestling and cardio to exploit Holland, and Holland will chip away for a late finish or decision. He notes Holland's guard is active and Means' recent wins are over lower-level competition.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win via an opportunistic finish, citing Holland's unorthodox style and ability to create chaos. He acknowledges Tim Means is well-rounded and may have early success, but believes Holland's length and creativity will prevail. However, he is not confident Holland covers the -300 spread, noting Holland's takedown defense issues and that Means can mix in takedowns. Levi sees it as a high-variance fight where Holland finds a way, but the price is too steep for a comfortable bet.
Paul agrees Holland should win but is wary of the -275 price. He notes Holland's size, reach, and guard are advantages, but the high favorite line gives him pause. He doesn't love the matchup for Means but isn't sure he'll bet Holland at that price.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, calling it straightforward. He notes Holland's reach advantage and youth, and believes Tim Means will get cracked and hurt. He predicts Holland will win by KO via elbows in the clinch in the first round, similar to his win over Anthony Hernandez. He doesn't worry about Holland's grappling at welterweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 0 | 53 of 93 | 56% | 94 of 134 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 8:03 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 54 of 116 | 46% | 84 of 146 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 38 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 24 of 60 | 40% | 28 of 64 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 35 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 53 of 93 | 56% | 20 of 55 | 29 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 70 | 17 of 19 | 4 of 4 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 54 of 116 | 46% | 37 of 93 | 13 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 88 | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 15 of 26 | 57% | 6 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 20 | 55% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 29 of 49 | 59% | 12 of 30 | 15 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 36 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 24 of 60 | 40% | 17 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 9 of 18 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 19 of 36 | 52% | 12 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Up next at welterweight, the man formerly known as “Lokomotivo” now sports a fancy new nickname of “Danish Dynamite” as Dalby (19-3-1, 2 NC; 3-2-1, 1 NC UFC) squares off with longtime vet and longtime nicknamed “The Dirty Bird” Means (31-12-1, 1 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC). Action is the name of the game here, and referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full as these two throw down. There is no chance of a glove touch, as these two 170ers are intense and ready to start brawling. Means fires off a head kick early, and Dalby eats it on the chin and starts to brawl. Both men throw caution to the wind immediately, and they hammer one another with alternating shots. As Dalby closes in, Means hits a takedown and puts the Danish fighter on his back. Means passes to side control as he works elbows from on top, slowly and methodically working his way to either advance to mount or otherwise do some damage. When Dalby holds on to him to tie him up, Means slams him down with his chest. Means crawls Dalby over to the cage wall, where he starts smacking his foe in the face with heavy punches. Dalby gets to his knees as he looks to walk up the fence, and Means keeps him grounded and lands some punches. Dalby is practically gasping for air three minutes in, although it does not necessarily mean that he is spent. Means knees him in the chest when he stands up, and Dalby breaks free and bounces around to get his blood flowing again. Means kicks him in the body and fires off a few punches, and Dalby dances out of the way. “Danish Dynamite” looks to explode with a right hand across the forward bow, but Means sees it coming, parries it and gets shoved into the fence. A few strikes for Means have opened up a cut near the bridge of the nose on Dalby’s right eyebrows, and a sharp one-two nearly knocks Dalby off of his feet. “The Dirty Bird” keeps it dirty in the clinch, and he gets off an elbow or two before they break. Dalby shoots in for a takedown right as the round ends, but it does not succeed.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Means
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Means
Round 2
Dalby fires off a few punches before rushing in to a takedown attempt, and Means is there to thump him in the body a few times. The welterweights tie up against the fence and score short punches, before breaking free. Dalby gets off a single leg kick, and then he changes it up to land flush to the body. Means aims a few punches up top, and a left hand splits the guard. Means sees its success and nails Dalby again, and one more gets Dalby’s attention. Means cracks Dalby on the chin, and the Danish fighter has quite a beard on him as he walks through everything to land a few of his own. Means targets the body and head indiscriminately, and Dalby walks in with a chain of punches into a knee. Dalby shoots in but gets shucked away just in time, and when they get back up, Dalby leaps forward with a left hand. Dalby works two right hands one after the other, and Means greets him with a left hand to the liver. Dalby slings a head kick, and they crash the pocket and score some body shots. When “Danish Dynamite” looses another body kick, Means rushes in to strike before clinching. Breaking free, Dalby slings kicks high and low, but Means’ responsive head kick is much more effective. Means kicks Dalby’s leg out from beneath him, and “The Dirty Bird” hops on top in side control to deal some damage. Means keeps a heavy top pressure to ride out the round, using a few short shoulder strikes when Dalby tries to wall-walk with his feet. Means keeps this position until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Means
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Means
Round 3
Means sprints out of his corner to throw a body kick and a left hand, and Dalby is there to fire right back. In a wild exchange, Dalby nails Means with a right hand, smashing the nose of “The Dirty Bird” and hurting him for the first time. Means stumbles back to the wall, and Dalby wraps him up against the fence while flirting with trips. Means spins him around and considers a single leg takedown, but he cannot ground the Danish fighter. Means backs off and re-engages, pressing Dalby tightly into the cage. This stalemate continues for quite some time, as both men look to clear any cobwebs. Dalby knees Means in the face once to break free, and he clips Means again with a strike. Dalby throws everything he has at Means, but the American grabs hold of him and pins him back to the cage wall. Means changes levels for a single, and he chains it into a double leg takedown, but neither succeed. All the while, precious seconds for Dalby are ticking off the clock, who is trying to break free but cannot escape the grip of “The Dirty Bird.” Means scores a few short punches to the body, grinding Dalby out and landing enough to stave off any referee intervention. When Dalby breaks the grip, Means gives him a shove into the fencing, where he clinches up again. At the 10-second clapper, Dalby tries desperately to get off, hurting Means again. Means gloms on to him, tying him up to the final bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
The Official Result
Tim Means def. Nicolas Dalby via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tim Means, citing his high-volume striking, underrated wrestling, and ability to avoid damage. He notes Means picks his shots and takes opponents down when needed. He expects Means to win a decision. He likes less on Means and more on Dalby for the monkey knife fight line.
Big Brady picks Tim Means to win by decision, citing superior striking stats (5.16 sig strikes/min, 48% accuracy, 61% striking defense) and Dalby's negative strike differential. He notes Dalby has been dropped in four of seven UFC fights but never KO'd. He thinks Means will out-volume Dalby on the feet, as Dalby rarely wrestles (only one takedown in last five fights). He is confident Means is the better striker.
Cody picks Dalby as a live underdog. He notes Dalby's toughness and heart, and that Means has lost as a favorite before. He points out that Means had a fight cancelled last week, which could disrupt his preparation. Cody also mentions Dalby's reach advantage and that Means is 37 with wear and tear. He thinks Dalby can grind Means against the cage and take over late if Means doesn't finish early.
Jacob picks Nicolas Dalby, jokingly citing that Dalby fought Darren Till to a draw in 2015 and outstruck him. He seems to be half-joking but picks Dalby to win. He does not provide serious technical analysis.
Means is a much better striker with higher output than Dalby. If Means keeps the fight vertical, he will light up Dalby. Dalby has knockout power but Means' durability is a concern; however, Means should avoid getting knocked out. Means' efficiency and tight striking will earn him a decision. Dalby's speed and timing could pose issues, but Means is the more proven striker.
Paul picks Tim Means, citing Means' better striking and underrated wrestling. He notes Means was supposed to fight last week and had a cancelled bout, but that might not be a big issue. He thinks Means has the skills to win, but acknowledges Dalby's toughness and that Means can fade. He is not confident and suggests watching weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Means by first-round submission (d'arce choke), citing his crisp boxing and ability to land straight shots down the pipe. He identifies defensive holes in Dalby's striking, as seen in the Jesse Ronson fight, and believes Means will hurt Dalby, prompting a bad takedown that leads to a choke. He trusts Means' composure and experience.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 0 | 64 of 161 | 39% | 69 of 166 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Mike Perry | 0 | 128 of 192 | 66% | 143 of 207 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 14 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Mike Perry | 0 | 27 of 40 | 67% | 30 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 20 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Mike Perry | 0 | 44 of 60 | 73% | 44 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 35 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Mike Perry | 0 | 57 of 92 | 61% | 69 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 64 of 161 | 39% | 44 of 134 | 8 of 12 | 12 of 15 | 62 of 157 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Perry | 128 of 192 | 66% | 86 of 147 | 26 of 28 | 16 of 17 | 121 of 184 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 14 of 31 | 45% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Perry | 27 of 40 | 67% | 18 of 31 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 20 of 60 | 33% | 11 of 46 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Perry | 44 of 60 | 73% | 28 of 43 | 10 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 42 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 30 of 70 | 42% | 26 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 68 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Perry | 57 of 92 | 61% | 40 of 73 | 9 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 55 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady hesitantly picks Tim Means to win by decision. He thinks Means is the more technical and well-rounded fighter, but has durability concerns after being knocked out recently. He notes Perry's headspace is questionable and he didn't look great against Gall, but Means is on short notice.
Daniel picks Means, citing his superior boxing and overall MMA skills. He notes Perry's lack of head movement and poor corner situation. He believes Means can stay disciplined, use volume, and mix in takedowns to avoid Perry's power. He thinks Means should be the favorite.
The host picks Tim Means to win by decision, noting his superior skill set and ability to keep Perry at range with leg kicks and teeps. He is skeptical of Perry's power and thinks Means can outpoint him. He would only bet Means if the line reaches plus 150.
The MMA Guru picks Mike Perry to win by unanimous decision (29-28), but expresses worry. He notes Means took the fight on short notice, and Perry has a full camp now. He expects Perry to use takedowns and outwork Means in the later rounds, but admits Means is dangerous and a full-camp Means might beat Perry.
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