UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs. McDonald · Feb 16, 2013 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs. McDonald Next Fight
Age 42
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Cub Swanson
4.79 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.0 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dustin Poirier
5.24 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.57 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.15 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Cub Swanson - Fight History
WIN vs Nate Landwehr
TKO R1 4:06 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.

"I have to pick Cub Swanson here. Obviously, Nate is very gritty, very tough, but if your chin gives out, your chin gives out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.

third round submission
"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.

"I got to go against the grain, go against my boy... for me, it's going to be a Cup Swanson play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think he'll beat Nate Landware? This would be a good one to discuss then. Why do you think he'll lose? Uh, Landware is a, not a lot better, but a little bit better of an athlete."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.

"I'm going to go Nate Landworth here. I really think that if Nate Lander doesn't get knocked out or badly compromised, his pace is going to be too much for Cub Swanson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.

"I think you get me to round two, you get me to round three, and Nate cooks him to the bone. So, I'm going with Nate Landwehr here, and I actually am considering a bet in this spot."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.

Likes Landwehr +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes over but warns against betting over due to age.
"I would lean towards Nate Landwehr in this fight for a few reasons. The first being, Cub's coming in on a long layoff. And at 42 years old, you can significantly decline in a very short space of time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.

"I'm actually going to pick Cub Swanson in this one cuz I feel like he's been there, done it multiple times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.

Swanson wins by knockout
"I think he gets his Swan song in emphatic fashion. And I think he gets a knockout victory over Nate the Train Lanware."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.

"Honestly, I am going with Cub Swanson. And I just feel like Cub... he's not a little cub anymore. He's Papa Bear Swanson now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.

"I'm going to go with Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think cub can outclass him, honestly. Yeah, I want cub to outclass him."
KO (punch) R3 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 99 of 158 62% 114 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Billy Quarantillo 0 97 of 237 40% 108 of 249 3 of 11 27% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 39 of 57 68% 40 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 37 of 88 42% 37 of 88 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
2 Cub Swanson 0 40 of 69 57% 54 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Billy Quarantillo 0 38 of 105 36% 49 of 117 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:38
3 Cub Swanson 1 20 of 32 62% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Billy Quarantillo 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 99 of 158 62% 74 of 127 13 of 18 12 of 13 95 of 154 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 97 of 237 40% 65 of 188 20 of 32 12 of 17 91 of 222 6 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 39 of 57 68% 23 of 38 7 of 10 9 of 9 39 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 37 of 88 42% 22 of 66 6 of 10 9 of 12 37 of 87 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 40 of 69 57% 35 of 61 4 of 6 1 of 2 36 of 65 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 38 of 105 36% 31 of 91 6 of 12 1 of 2 32 of 91 6 of 14 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 20 of 32 62% 16 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 22 of 44 50% 12 of 31 8 of 10 2 of 3 22 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo leans toward Quarantillo because he will be a touch faster with better movement, but he acknowledges Cub Swanson's toughness and all-around skills. He notes Quarantillo's aggression, BJJ, and volume striking, while Swanson is old and slow but still dangerous. He is considering betting the over 1.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 spread on Swanson, expecting a close decision.

Considering over 1.5 rounds and plus 3.5 spread on Cub Swanson.
"For pick purposes... I am going to lean Billy but there's two bets... I'm going to hammer the over cuz I do think this fight's going to go to decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by third-round submission. He thinks Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and grappling can break Swanson, especially if he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Swanson has been submitted many times. However, he worries about Quarantillo's chin and durability, as Swanson still has power.

"I'll take Billy Q here I'll take Billy q and I think he wins this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume striking (7.36 strikes per minute), pressure, and submission threat. He notes Cub Swanson's age (41), mileage, and recent losses, and believes Billy's pace and durability will overwhelm Cub. Cody also mentions the hometown advantage for Billy in Tampa.

"I got Billy it feels like I'm going to have to trust Billy a little more this week than I'd like to."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Connor also picks Swanson, citing that Quarantillo's style is similar to Colby Covington's and ages out quickly. He notes that Swanson is still sharp and dangerous, with better boxing and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not a reliable path to victory. Connor thinks Quarantillo may be 'shot' and that Swanson's experience will prevail.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to pick him too. If nothing else, I'm going to do it for the old man out there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Vreeland picks Cub Swanson for the upset, despite being a fan of Billy Quarantillo. He argues that Quarantillo's comeback style relies on taking damage early, and at 36, that may be harder to sustain. Vreeland notes Swanson's speed, accuracy, and experience in wars, comparing this to Swanson's fight against Darren Elkins. He believes Swanson will land significant damage before Quarantillo can drag him into deep waters.

"I'm goingon go with Cub Swanson for the upset"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Lucrative James picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He believes Swanson has more knockout upside early and can land heavy shots to stop Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Swanson's veteran savvy and power, but admits concerns about Swanson's age (41) and potential cardio decline. He sees value in Swanson at plus odds, though he is not fully confident.

"I'm going to go with the underdog in this one I'm going to go with Cub Swanson I think he's got more knockout upside early."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's relentless and smothering grappling style will cause Cub Swanson trouble. He will crowd Swanson's space, jump on his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke, with the finish coming within 10 minutes.

wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1 or 2
"cornello has the Relentless and smothering grappling style to cause Cub Swanson a lot of trouble obviously Swanson will be the better Striker here but look for this corano to crowd his space eventually jumping on the back of Cub …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul picks Billy Quarantillo but with some hesitation. He notes that Billy's pace can be stifled by wrestling, but Cub Swanson is unlikely to use that approach. Paul sees it as a standup affair where Billy's volume and pressure should win out, though he acknowledges Cub's toughness and the possibility of a competitive first round.

"I have a little bit of concern with Billy I I mean I guess the one thing that keeps his Pace off is when his opponent's able to wrestle him and I really don't think Cub Swanson's going to be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, calling Billy Quarantillo 'absolute garbage'. He criticizes Quarantillo's lack of explosiveness and poor distance management, and notes that Swanson has better hands, power, and body work. He predicts Swanson will target the body and possibly get a body shot TKO in round two. He also notes that Quarantillo has been exposed in recent fights.

body shot TKO in round two
"I'm going to lean towards Cub Swanson I could even see a body shot TKO I know I predict a body shot TKO nearly every card but this is the one I'm predicting for this card body shot TKO Cubs …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson because Quarantillo's pressure style is aging poorly and he has been getting hurt and finished in recent fights. He notes that Swanson still has solid boxing fundamentals and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not good enough to control Swanson, who is active off his back. Zane believes Quarantillo's style is falling apart.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to take Cub. I just don't think Quarantillo is a good enough wrestler for me to pick him to out grapple Cub."
LOSS vs Andre Fili
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 111 55% 90 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Cub Swanson 0 67 of 147 45% 70 of 151 2 of 11 18% 0 0 3:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 12 of 29 41% 22 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:27
3 Andre Fili 0 30 of 51 58% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Cub Swanson 0 31 of 70 44% 33 of 73 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 111 55% 43 of 86 7 of 11 12 of 14 53 of 101 9 of 10 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 67 of 147 45% 49 of 118 13 of 22 5 of 7 52 of 126 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 31 64% 9 of 18 3 of 4 8 of 9 18 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 42 42% 12 of 31 4 of 8 2 of 3 13 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 12 of 29 41% 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 35 51% 14 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 30 of 51 58% 23 of 41 4 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 31 of 70 44% 23 of 58 5 of 8 3 of 4 24 of 61 7 of 9 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.

"I think Fili because he's younger, a little faster... I still side with him here but the line is again..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson here to have like a Robbie Lawler vs Nico Price type retirement moment where he goes out there knocks out Fely puts his gloves down."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.

over 2.5 rounds at -110
"I will pick him to win this fight though... I think it's ultimately uh phy who ends wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.

"I think it's a pretty clear dogger pass, Cub Swanson for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Andre Philly... TKO"
WIN vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 0 77 of 156 49% 107 of 195 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Hakeem Dawodu 0 95 of 176 53% 129 of 224 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 56 51% 29 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cub Swanson 0 28 of 51 54% 52 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 55 52% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Cub Swanson 0 26 of 63 41% 32 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Hakeem Dawodu 0 37 of 65 56% 52 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 77 of 156 49% 41 of 112 27 of 31 9 of 13 59 of 135 18 of 21 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 95 of 176 53% 41 of 104 29 of 37 25 of 35 79 of 158 16 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 23 of 42 54% 11 of 25 8 of 10 4 of 7 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 56 51% 9 of 28 8 of 9 12 of 19 29 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 28 of 51 54% 19 of 42 8 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 39 10 of 12 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 55 52% 13 of 33 10 of 13 6 of 9 20 of 44 9 of 11 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 26 of 63 41% 11 of 45 11 of 13 4 of 5 18 of 54 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 37 of 65 56% 19 of 43 11 of 15 7 of 7 30 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Dawodu based on age and speed, noting Swanson looked old in his last fight. He acknowledges Swanson could win via takedowns and decision, but leans Dawodu.

"dawood is going to be the pick here but that is based purely on age and speed"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to knock out Cub Swanson in the second round. He notes Swanson's age (39) and recent durability issues, especially in the Jonathan Martinez fight where he was hurt to the head, body, and legs. He believes Dawodu's mixing of strikes will wear down Swanson and lead to a finish. He expects this to be Swanson's retirement fight.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Akeem to knock out Swanson here um probably second round I think it's going to be attritional"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody is torn on this fight. He notes Cub Swanson is nearing 40 and coming off a brutal loss to Jonathan Martinez, but also has a history of pulling off upsets. He criticizes Hakeem Dawodu's low output and lack of finishing ability, but acknowledges Cub's age and damage. He ultimately decides to pass on betting, saying he has other underdogs he prefers.

"I don't know if I'm gonna get there I'm taking some other underdogs on the car I'm not supposed to send it here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

James picks Dawodu, believing Swanson is past his prime. He thinks Dawodu is the better striker now with better durability, though he notes Dawodu's chin is questionable. James sees little path for Swanson to win, as he doesn't think Swanson can grapple or out-strike Dawodu. He mentions Swanson could land a knockout due to his unorthodox style, but overall favors Dawodu clearly.

"I think Swanson's past it... I think Dawodu is the clear side in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Dawodu is a technical striker who uses combination striking and kicks. Swanson is 40 and on a 3-6 run over his last nine, with wins over sketchy competition. Dawodu should land the more impactful strikes and get the nod from judges. However, Swanson's unorthodox style could make it closer than the odds suggest.

"I still feel like dawado should be able to do what he needs to do to get his hand raised I just want none of that chalky price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Cub Swanson but with low confidence. He thinks the line is accurate and would prefer Dawodu at a better price. He sees Cub having a puncher's chance and notes that if Dawodu fights at his usual low volume, Cub could outwork him and eke out a decision. However, he admits he's not confident and has other underdogs he'd rather bet.

"I suppose I will select Cub for the purposes of this show but I have other underdogs that I'm wasting money on this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu over Cub Swanson, citing Swanson's accumulated damage and small size for featherweight. He notes Dawodu's strength and clinch work, predicting he will hurt Swanson to the body with knees and get a finish in the third round. He references Swanson's past body-shot losses to Tatsuya Kawajiri and Max Holloway.

Finish in the third round by knees to the body
"I'm gonna go Hakeem dawa do over Cub Swanson"
TKO (leg kick) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 51 of 79 64% 60 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 2 62 of 102 60% 66 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 31 of 50 62% 38 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 1 33 of 59 55% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:16
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 20 of 29 68% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 1 29 of 43 67% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 51 of 79 64% 10 of 35 9 of 10 32 of 34 48 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 62 of 102 60% 40 of 77 15 of 18 7 of 7 37 of 64 12 of 14 13 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 31 of 50 62% 5 of 23 5 of 6 21 of 21 29 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 33 of 59 55% 21 of 45 10 of 12 2 of 2 21 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 14
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 29 68% 5 of 12 4 of 4 11 of 13 19 of 26 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 29 of 43 67% 19 of 32 5 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 25 7 of 8 6 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.

"I think I'm gonna have to lean Cub because of his experience his level of competition this is not the most confident pick in the world"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.

Swanson wins by knockout, first round
"I'm actually gonna go with a cub Swanson for the upset here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.

under 2.5 rounds +130
"I'll lean to him but I think round one could be very very dicey... I'm betting on violence here small cage under two and a half rounds plus 130 sign me up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.

"I'll go with Jonathan Martinez, just to be on the opposite side of you on this one. I just don't trust the Bantam weight move for cub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.

Swanson by knockout
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson Swanson by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.

Cub Swanson inside the distance
"I think I'm leaning slight dog here at Cub Swanson right now you know what I didn't know that this was that bantamweight I that makes me like it even more."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.

prediction: finish to the body
"I'm gonna go with Jonathan Martinez over Cub Swanson and it hurts me to say it because Cub Swanson's my favorite fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.

"If I would pick it to happen at one 45 and I know so little about how cub handles a weight cut... then I have to still pick the guy I would pick at featherweight."
WIN vs Darren Elkins
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.

moneyline bet at +170
"i do have a money line bet on darren elkins and that's mostly because the odds were so good i mean plus 170 is crazy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.

decision
"give me swanson to win give me swanson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.

Swanson by decision +150
"I will take cup swanson he's the official pick I don't like that price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.

Swanson by decision; fight doesn't go to decision (if Elkins submits)
"I am going to pick Cub to win but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sketched out if Elkins got on top of him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.

"cub swanson is going to dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.

Swanson by KO (+250); parlay Swanson + Barcelos (-102)
"I like cub swanson by ko i think that's very live in this situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.

"I'm going to actually have to watch the fight and I'm going to try to bet it live because I know that swanston doesn't have cardio issues but darren is just he's a guy that has made me a bunch …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.

"i'm going with cub swanson here over darren elkins"
LOSS vs Giga Chikadze
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Big Brady picks Giga Chikadze to win a close decision, but he is hesitant and hates the line. He acknowledges Chikadze's improvements, especially in takedown defense and striking output, as seen in the Morales fight. However, he notes that Swanson is durable and on a roll, and that Chikadze has been taken down in the past. Brady thinks the line should be closer and that Swanson could be live if he wrestles more, but he ultimately goes with Chikadze's flashier strikes.

"i'm going to take ciacatse to win by a close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody sees Cub Swanson as a live underdog with many variables in his favor: savvy veteran experience, ground game advantage, and a history of performing well as an underdog. He notes that Swanson has a BJJ black belt and wrestling advantage, and that Giga has not faced a grappler who actually uses their ground game. However, he is concerned that Giga is tall for the division and a tricky striker, and that Swanson needs to use his wrestling to win. He labels this a 'dogger pass' situation and mentions DraftKings still has +160 available.

dogger pass (betting recommendation)
"for our last show in the studio i'll label this one a dogger pass dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win, emphasizing that Chikadze is a superior striker with better range and footwork. He believes Cub Swanson's style of swinging big hooks plays into Chikadze's straight shots down the middle. Levi also notes that Swanson's recent win over Pineda is overrated and that Chikadze's cardio held up in his last fight.

"i'm gonna go with giga to land the harder shots the more impactful shots and i think he's gonna announce himself as a contender at 145 pounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The host picks Giga Chikadze by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He expects Giga to fight safe and outpoint Swanson, who may look for takedowns. He notes that Swanson is a veteran but believes Giga's kicking game will be too much.

Giga Chikadze by decision at +170
"I like giga here it's crazy that the line is continuing to move towards the cub swanson side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not have a strong lean on this fight. He notes that Giga has been given favorable matchups and that Swanson has the ground game advantage, but he is not confident enough to make a pick. He mentions that the action is coming in on Swanson and that he can understand why, but he doesn't commit to a side.

"yeah not a great lean either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson, citing Chikadze's size advantage, reach, and improving MMA skills. He notes that Swanson is a natural bantamweight and took damage in his last fight against Daniel Pineda. He predicts Chikadze will chop at Swanson's legs and jab his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm gonna pick giga chickety to shop at those legs land good shots and just have cubs cub swanson limping around for the entire fight"
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
KO (punches) R2 1:52 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 46 of 66 69% 51 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Daniel Pineda 0 21 of 45 46% 40 of 65 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 31 of 47 65% 34 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Daniel Pineda 0 16 of 30 53% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:08
2 Cub Swanson 1 15 of 19 78% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Pineda 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 46 of 66 69% 35 of 51 7 of 11 4 of 4 37 of 54 3 of 3 6 of 9
Daniel Pineda 21 of 45 46% 9 of 28 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 31 of 47 65% 23 of 36 4 of 7 4 of 4 23 of 36 3 of 3 5 of 8
Daniel Pineda 16 of 30 53% 6 of 17 2 of 3 8 of 10 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 15 of 19 78% 12 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 5 of 15 33% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Big Brady picks Daniel Pineda to win by first-round submission. He highlights Pineda's 100% finish rate (27 wins all finishes) and Swanson's history of being submitted six times. He likes Pineda's recent form and believes he is in his prime, while Swanson is past his prime and coming off injury. He recommends betting Pineda inside the distance at +140.

Pineda inside the distance +140
"i'm going to take pineda to win by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Daniel is impressed with Pineda's resurgence, noting his 29 finishes and recent dominant performances. He questions Cub Swanson's level of competition and thinks Swanson is on his way out. He predicts Pineda will catch Cub with a submission, possibly his 20th submission win.

submission win
"imma go with pineda to get his 20th submission win i think he catches cub somewhere along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Pineda's wrestling and top pressure will be a nightmare for Swanson, who has struggled with grapplers. Pineda should be able to take Swanson down repeatedly and finish him via ground and pound or submission. Swanson's recent losses have come via submission, and Pineda's style matches up well. The under 2.5 rounds is a good prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; Pineda inside the distance, likely second round
"i'm taking pineda via finnish probably second round... i truly think that he'll be able to get swanson down time and time again and get that damage in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson, despite the long layoff due to injury. He believes Swanson's experience against good jiu-jitsu guys and his stand-up will be the difference. He expects Swanson to keep the fight standing and win a unanimous decision. He dismisses Daniel Pineda's wins as unimpressive and notes Pineda's past PED issues.

"i'm gonna go with cub swanson getting the job done against daniel pineda i like daniel pineda but i think people are just looking at his herbert burns win"
Dustin Poirier - Fight History
LOSS vs Max Holloway
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 1 198 of 375 52% 201 of 378 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
Dustin Poirier 1 109 of 255 42% 109 of 255 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 1 26 of 64 40% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dustin Poirier 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Holloway 0 44 of 67 65% 47 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Dustin Poirier 1 25 of 43 58% 25 of 43 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:12
3 Max Holloway 0 38 of 61 62% 38 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Max Holloway 0 44 of 84 52% 44 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 22 of 68 32% 22 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Max Holloway 0 46 of 99 46% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 198 of 375 52% 103 of 253 64 of 80 31 of 42 182 of 351 0 of 1 16 of 23
Dustin Poirier 109 of 255 42% 94 of 235 6 of 10 9 of 10 102 of 243 3 of 6 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 26 of 64 40% 9 of 39 11 of 16 6 of 9 23 of 57 0 of 0 3 of 7
Dustin Poirier 16 of 32 50% 12 of 28 1 of 1 3 of 3 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Max Holloway 44 of 67 65% 31 of 52 11 of 12 2 of 3 31 of 51 0 of 0 13 of 16
Dustin Poirier 25 of 43 58% 21 of 36 3 of 5 1 of 2 19 of 34 2 of 3 4 of 6
3 Max Holloway 38 of 61 62% 18 of 36 9 of 12 11 of 13 38 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 21 of 49 42% 15 of 41 2 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 44 of 84 52% 23 of 57 15 of 18 6 of 9 44 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 22 of 68 32% 21 of 67 0 of 0 1 of 1 22 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Max Holloway 46 of 99 46% 22 of 69 18 of 22 6 of 8 46 of 98 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0 24 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo picks Max Holloway, but with low confidence. He notes that Dustin is the better all-around fighter but may be pressured by his retirement fight and home crowd, leading him to brawl instead of using his full skillset. He expects Holloway's volume striking to win a decision. He will not bet on this fight.

Says he's not betting on this fight due to the circumstances.
"I am going to pick Max. I'm not going to bet on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady leans Max Holloway, citing Holloway's improvement at lightweight and youth (33 vs 36). He worries about Holloway's chin after his first KO but believes Holloway's volume will be key. He notes Poirier's retirement and hometown advantage could sway a close decision, so he's not betting.

Holloway by close decision; no bet due to close odds and hometown factor
"I'm going to lean the Holloway side, but I don't think I'm touching this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Connor believes Holloway has evolved into a more complete striker since their last fight, with improved footwork, counterpunching, and kicking game. He thinks Holloway was close to winning the second fight and that his cleaner combinations and pressure can overcome Poirier's power if he survives the turning points. He also notes Poirier's retirement talk as a potential factor that could affect his focus.

"I think Holloway can have that kind of performance again and win it this time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The host notes Poirier is up 2-0 in the series and believes his power punching approach will be more effective than Holloway's volume, referencing the second matchup where Poirier won 4-1 on scorecards. He expects Poirier to repeat that and win on the scorecards.

"I think his power punching approach will be a little bit more effective than the volume we saw from Holloway. And we saw that in their second matchup where Porier was able to win 4 to1 on the scorecards. And …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier, predicting a decision win. He cites Holloway's superior striking and the fact that Poirier is retiring after this fight, which may affect his intensity. The Guru also notes that Holloway nearly won their second fight and is now properly prepared at lightweight, unlike the short-notice rematch. He believes Poirier's striking has regressed due to focusing on takedown defense, while Holloway's striking remains sharp. He expects a competitive fight but sees Holloway as a step ahead.

"I'm going with Max Holloway getting this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Zane agrees with Connor that Holloway can win, citing Holloway's improved back-foot game and the fact that he was close in the second fight. He also points to Poirier's age and potential emotional state in his retirement fight as reasons Holloway might finally get the win. However, he expresses nervousness about picking against the trend of the first two fights.

"That's kind of my feeling, too. Makes me very nervous."
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Submission (brabo choke) R5 2:42 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 88 of 156 56% 147 of 222 5 of 16 31% 2 0 10:23
Dustin Poirier 0 74 of 183 40% 104 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 9 66% 46 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 26 of 46 56% 30 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Dustin Poirier 0 24 of 58 41% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 24 75% 24 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:10
Dustin Poirier 0 15 of 36 41% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Islam Makhachev 0 20 of 44 45% 29 of 53 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Dustin Poirier 0 23 of 61 37% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 33 54% 18 of 33 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:33
Dustin Poirier 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 88 of 156 56% 81 of 148 7 of 7 0 of 1 71 of 136 11 of 14 6 of 6
Dustin Poirier 74 of 183 40% 53 of 159 18 of 20 3 of 4 51 of 157 23 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dustin Poirier 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 26 of 46 56% 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 1 17 of 36 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dustin Poirier 24 of 58 41% 18 of 51 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 47 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1
Dustin Poirier 15 of 36 41% 13 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Islam Makhachev 20 of 44 45% 17 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 23 of 61 37% 12 of 49 11 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 50 11 of 11 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 18 of 33 54% 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.

"Islam makev is absolutely the pick and I am very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision (-550), Islam Makhachev wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier to land more than 0.5 significant strikes (free square on PrizePicks)
"I'm going to have a ton of Islam in this matchup he's probably my favorite play on the board"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.

over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"Obviously Makhachev is the favorite but he's starting to take on almost too much money... Poirier is a bonafide legend... the more you're getting these giant plus 500 type price tags on them the more appealing it does become."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.

"as a pure pick I will pick Islam but I'm rooting for porier here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.

Poirier by submission +800 or +900, Poirier inside distance
"I don't think makev is as hitable as the people who Dustin PO is beating with his hands"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.

"obviously makev is my pick here he's he's basically khabib with hands"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.

submission
"Give me Makhachev, Makhachev by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"I don't really like Poirier against any of these Dagestani wrestlers... takedowns are going to be there for Makhachev whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.

Makhachev wins in round 1 by submission (arm triangle or Von Flue choke)
"I think he's going to lose very bad in round one with absolute [__] ease"
KO (punches) R2 2:32 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 1 28 of 34 82% 30 of 37 0 of 1 0% 4 0 0:31
Benoît Saint Denis 0 50 of 74 67% 69 of 97 3 of 7 42% 1 0 4:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 12 of 13 92% 14 of 16 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:23
Benoît Saint Denis 0 38 of 49 77% 53 of 68 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
2 Dustin Poirier 1 16 of 21 76% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Benoît Saint Denis 0 12 of 25 48% 16 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 28 of 34 82% 24 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 1 23 of 25 4 of 8 1 of 1
Benoît Saint Denis 50 of 74 67% 25 of 46 18 of 20 7 of 8 17 of 37 31 of 35 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 12 of 13 92% 11 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Benoît Saint Denis 38 of 49 77% 21 of 31 10 of 10 7 of 8 13 of 22 23 of 25 2 of 2
2 Dustin Poirier 16 of 21 76% 13 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 15 1 of 5 1 of 1
Benoît Saint Denis 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 8 of 10 0 of 0 4 of 15 8 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling. He worries that Dustin Poirier's chin may have deteriorated after the Justin Gaethje knockout. He thinks Saint Denis can overwhelm Poirier early. However, he won't bet because he's rooting for Poirier.

"I gotta go with Beno St Den here I don't know if I'm going to bet on it though I'm going to be fullon rooting for Dustin poer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by second-round submission. He notes that Saint Denis is younger, hungrier, and has grappling upside. He believes Saint Denis will get Poirier down and submit him, similar to how Michael Chandler did. He acknowledges Poirier's striking advantage but thinks Saint Denis's durability and pressure will be too much.

win by second round submission
"I'm taking benois anony I think he gets this fight down to the mat eventually ... and I think he Subs him in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Cody points to Poirier's declining volume and durability, noting he has been outstruck in recent fights and is showing signs of wear. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's relentless pressure, cardio, durability, and progression. He believes Saint Denis will break Poirier's will as the fight goes on.

"I think they're meeting at the right point in the road St Den gets the win"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel picks Poirier but is very hesitant due to Poirier's age and coming off a head kick KO loss. He acknowledges Poirier is the more skilled striker and believes he can knock out Saint Denis on the feet. However, he worries about Saint Denis's pressure, grappling, and durability, and whether Poirier still has the will and cardio to go five rounds. Daniel notes that if Poirier drops Saint Denis, he might follow him to the ground unlike against Charles Oliveira. He ultimately leans on Poirier's skill advantage.

"I'm still gonna go with porier you know um he follows me on Twitter I don't want to no it ain't about that you know um it's uh he's just so much more skilled it's just what does he have …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis but expresses discomfort with the -205 price. He believes BSD's wrestling and pace will be too much for Poirier, especially given Poirier's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes that BSD has finished all his opponents and has never been finished. However, he calls the line a 'dog or pass' spot because BSD has never fought anyone as tough as Poirier. He says he would rather see BSD fight someone like Rafael Fiziev before this step up. Despite the price, he picks BSD because he has never picked against him.

Vreeland says he can't get behind the moneyline at -205 but would use BSD in daily fantasy or pick his takedowns on Underdog.
"I can't take a guy in Benoît Saint Denis who went from knocking out Matt Frevola to fighting Dustin Poirier at negative 205 and confidently say yes this is a good line to play."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Jeff Fox picks Benoît Saint Denis as well, noting that he has never picked against BSD and won't start now. He acknowledges the massive step up in competition from Matt Frevola to Dustin Poirier, but believes BSD's wrestling and finishing ability are real. Fox points out that Poirier has been knocked out recently and that BSD has the power to put him away. He also mentions that BSD is younger and has a relentless pace. However, he says he won't bet real money on this fight due to the price and the step up.

Fox says he won't bet real money on this fight but would use BSD in fantasy or prop bets.
"I'm going BSD haven't ever picked against him won't today."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Saint Denis is a relentless pressure fighter with five straight finishes. He uses leg kicks, body work, and clinch pressure to break opponents, then works to the back for rear-naked chokes. Poirier is a better striker but struggles against aggressive grapplers who can close the distance, as seen in losses to Khabib and Oliveira. Poirier does not want this fight and may be mentally checked out. I expect Saint Denis to break Poirier within the first two rounds and secure a submission.

Saint Denis by submission in rounds 1-2
"give me saon here I think he finds a submission within the first two rounds uh I feel pretty damn good about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Paul emphasizes Poirier's mileage and the fact that he didn't even know the fight was on until recently, suggesting he hasn't been sparring hard. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's hunger and youth, and notes that Saint Denis has never been finished and has shown incredible durability and pace.

"I think they're meeting at the right point in the road St Den gets the win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing he will overwhelm Dustin Poirier with body kicks, takedowns, and pressure. He notes Poirier's wide hips and square stance make him vulnerable to body kicks, and that Poirier struggled with Chandler's body kicks. He predicts Saint Denis will finish Poirier by ground-and-pound TKO in round two, leading to Poirier's retirement.

round two TKO
"I think benoir beats the [ __ ] out of porier in round one beats the [ __ ] out of him in round two and finishes him on the ground in round two"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
KO (head kick) R2 1:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 52 51% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 1 41 of 66 62% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 33 of 56 58% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Justin Gaethje 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 27 of 52 51% 21 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 41 of 66 62% 23 of 48 7 of 7 11 of 11 38 of 63 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 27 of 51 52% 21 of 45 4 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 33 of 56 58% 18 of 41 5 of 5 10 of 10 31 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Angelo picks Dustin Poirier, expecting a similar fight to their first meeting but without a finish. He believes Poirier's technical striking and fight IQ will outpoint Gaethje over five rounds. He notes that both have evolved at the same pace, but if Gaethje uses wrestling, it could change things. He is excited for the fight but not betting on it.

"I think it's gonna be more the same here Justin is tough he's dangerous Poirier is going to be Technical and I think he's going to out point for the win just like he did last time I don't think …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by late third-round finish. He references the first fight where Poirier landed 142 head strikes and broke Gaethje in the fourth round. He trusts Poirier's durability (only two KO losses in 36 fights) and volume, and expects damage to accumulate. However, he is not confident, acknowledging Gaethje's improvements and power. He calls it a toss-up but leans Poirier.

late third round finish
"I'm gonna take Dustin for you to finish Justin gaichi late third round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Cody picks Poirier based on the first fight where Poirier adjusted after leg kicks and knocked Gaethje out. He notes Poirier's training partners at ATT (Chris Duncan, Grant Dawson) have had career-best performances recently, suggesting good camp. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and durability but believes Poirier's boxing and ability to weather the storm give him the edge. He does not plan to bet pre-fight.

"I'm gonna side with Dustin Poirier but like this is this fight you know we've already seen it it already kind of plays out like absolute chaos"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

James picks Poirier, trusting his boxing accuracy, durability in wars, and ability to adjust to leg kicks. He notes Gaethje has improved technically but still gets hit and has been finished in wars before. He expects a war that goes into championship rounds, with Poirier's dog and cardio giving him the edge.

over 2.5 rounds (implied)
"I'm picking Dustin in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Poirier's precision striking and combinations will hurt Gaethje eventually and put him away. The fight doesn't go to decision is the spot I lean into most. Poirier by knockout, probably in the fourth or fifth round. Gaethje's leg kicks were effective in the first fight but Poirier's hands will find the big shot again.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm leaning Dustin Poirier, leaning fight doesn't go to decision like I said as my favorite prediction for this matchup give me Poirier by knockout probably once again and the fourth possibly even fifth round of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Paul leans Gaethje due to plus money and Gaethje's proven ability to break opponents down in later rounds, referencing the Fiziev fight where Gaethje faded Fiziev in the third. He questions Poirier's durability and willingness to take damage at 34, noting Poirier's recent fights have been early finishes or high-damage affairs. He also highlights Gaethje's camp in Colorado producing good results. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and prefers the plus money ticket.

"I'm gonna end up going with just engaging fair enough"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 0 38 of 76 50% 63 of 105 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Michael Chandler 0 43 of 100 43% 65 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 28 of 57 49% 31 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chandler 0 23 of 69 33% 24 of 73 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:05
2 Dustin Poirier 0 2 of 3 66% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chandler 0 18 of 25 72% 39 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:34
3 Dustin Poirier 0 8 of 16 50% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Michael Chandler 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 38 of 76 50% 34 of 71 2 of 2 2 of 3 32 of 66 3 of 4 3 of 6
Michael Chandler 43 of 100 43% 32 of 80 10 of 17 1 of 3 25 of 76 2 of 2 16 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 28 of 57 49% 25 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 2 25 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 23 of 69 33% 16 of 54 6 of 12 1 of 3 21 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 1
2 Dustin Poirier 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 18 of 25 72% 16 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 21
3 Dustin Poirier 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 6
Michael Chandler 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Dustin Poirier
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Poirier (-210), Chandler (+180)

Round 1
Two of the lightweight division’s best action fighters are set to square off, and both Poirier and Chandler are hoping to get back in the championship picture after recent losses in title bouts. Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the cage. Chandler misses on a big low kick. Poirier misses his first leg kick too, and Chandler answers with a right hand. Chandler comes forward and lands a hard body kick. Chandler shoots and Poirier shucks him off. Poirier jabs the body. Chandler has a leg kick checked. Chandler pressures with punches and front kicks, but Poirier defnds well. Moments later, a right lands clean for Chandler, and Poirier is on the defensive. Chandler lands some heavy shots with his foe’s back to the fence. Poirier gets off the fence and they’re back in the center of the cage. Chandler is swinging heavy leather as usual. A crisp right connects for Poirier. They collide heads and Chandler tees off with right hands. he backs Poirier into the fence and continues to land power punches. Poirier looks hurt and Chandler takes him down near the fence. Chandler thinks about a kimura, but Poirier scoots to the fence. Chandler almost jumps on the back as Poirier works his way up. Chandler has a body lock and he gets Poirier down once, then follows with a suplex. Poirier is right back up, and he’s moving forward with punches now. They’re trading, and it’s Poirier who buckles his man with a right. Poirer goes on the attack, and he’s unloading on a reeling Chandler near the fence as time runs out. Chandler, whose face is battered and bloodied, may have been saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Poirier

Round 2
Poirier sticks a jab at the outset. Chandler presses forward with a body-head combo followed by a kick. That sets up a high amplitude takedown, and now Chandler is in Poirier’s closed guard. Poirier lands elbows from his back. Chandler is leaking blood from his nose, and it’s getting all over Poirier. Poirier is framing a triangle, but Chandler passes and takes the back. Chandler attempts to get his left arm under the chin, but Poirier defends well. Chandler gets both hooks in and continues to hunt for the choke. Chandler is too high and the choke isn’t under the neck, but he is winning the round at this point. Chandler continues to hold a dominant position, but Poirier is able to turn and get his back to the cage. Poirier has full guard and he frames a kimura. Chandler makes him eat a big right and he gives up on that. Chandler switches to hammerfists and Miragliotta warns him for landing blows to the back of the head. Chandler relents and he traps the wrist of Poirier while landing solid right hands to the head. Chandler stays heavy on top as the round draws to a close, and he’ll end a dominant frame in top position.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chandler

Round 3
Poirier attacks the lead leg of Chandler. Poirier with a straight left. Chandler blocks a head kick and then is denied on a half-hearted takedown. Chandler pressures behind a combination and changes levels. He gets a high crotch and lifts Poirier for a slam, only to see Poirier scramble into top position on the deposit. From there, Poirier transitions to the back of his opponent. Poirier has a body triangle secured with Chandler still on his knees in the center of the Octagon. Poirier locks in a rear-naked choke and falls back to the canvas, drapping his adversary with him. Poirier’s arm is under the chin and the squeeze is tight. Chandler has no choice but to tap in a matter of seconds.

The Official Result
Dustin Poirier def. Michael Chandler via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R3 2:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Angelo acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but does not trust him to fight to win rather than slug it out. He believes Poirier is the smarter, more composed fighter focused on winning a title. He picks Poirier because Chandler cannot be trusted to try to win, though he expects an exciting fight.

"Dustin Poirier is the pick but literally because Michael Chandler can't be trusted to try to win a fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Poirier is the better technical striker with better cardio, and that Chandler's chin is questionable after taking damage. He compares it to Chandler's fight with Gaethje, but notes Poirier has more power and better cardio. He expects a stand-up war with no takedowns, and that Chandler will slow down as the fight goes on.

Poirier by KO in round 2; fight of the night candidate
"I think pooria does finish him this time around I think pooria does finish him in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Cody picks Michael Chandler as a plus money underdog, expecting chaos in the fight. He notes that both fighters will eat massive shots and that Chandler has a legitimate chance on any given night due to his athleticism, wrestling, and power. Cody believes Chandler's willingness to throw down and his durability make him live at the plus price, and he sees the fight as a 50/50 proposition.

"I'm drawn to Chandler here strictly because I expect chaos in this fight... I see a plus 190 price tag on a fight that I could really see going both ways."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to knock out Michael Chandler, citing Poirier's volume, knockout power, and finishing ability when he smells blood. He notes that Chandler is susceptible to calf kicks and tends to get wild, which could lead to a straight left from Poirier. Levi respects Chandler's explosiveness and D1 wrestling but believes Poirier's experience and the 'Poirier Blitz' will be the difference. He mentions that he wanted to bet Poirier but missed the line at -175, so he is passing on a bet. He also discusses the danger of Chandler's one-punch power and the potential for a first-round knockout from either side.

Predicts a knockout win for Poirier; odds mentioned: Poirier -210, Chandler +180 at DraftKings
"I'm gonna go with poora here to knock out Michael Chandler"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The host sees Poirier as the better technical striker and believes his discipline will keep him out of trouble. He acknowledges Chandler's power and speed but thinks Poirier will outbox him and potentially get a late KO. He notes the line at -210 is a bit wide but still picks Poirier. He expects knockdowns and a possible finish from Poirier.

"I think that the safer and better fighter is Dustin Poirier I think he gets his hand raised here by knockout later in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Paul picks Dustin Poirier by TKO, believing Poirier's boxing combinations and durability will be the difference. He notes that Chandler has durability issues and has been knocked out before, and that Poirier's pressure and volume will break Chandler down. Paul also mentions that Poirier is highly motivated and looks good in training, and that Chandler's recklessness could lead to him getting caught. He prefers the Poirier by TKO prop at plus money.

Poirier by TKO at +120
"I'm gonna go the other side and take Dustin Poirier... I feel like Poirier puts him away and if he can put him away we're good... I'm gonna take the Poirier by TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Poirier, emphasizing Chandler's tendency to get hit and Poirier's granite chin and experience against elite competition. He believes Poirier will trade in the pocket and finish Chandler with a first-round TKO, noting that Chandler only shoots takedowns when hurt and may gas from wrestling. He references Chandler's struggles against Ferguson on the feet.

TKO at the end of round one
"I'm going dust Emporia man Chandler gets hit too much"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:02 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 73 of 131 55% 98 of 157 0 of 6 0% 3 1 5:41
Dustin Poirier 1 58 of 94 61% 69 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 48 of 92 52% 51 of 96 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Dustin Poirier 1 54 of 87 62% 58 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Charles Oliveira 0 23 of 32 71% 45 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 1 4:27
Dustin Poirier 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Charles Oliveira 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:48
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 73 of 131 55% 48 of 99 22 of 29 3 of 3 38 of 86 17 of 19 18 of 26
Dustin Poirier 58 of 94 61% 56 of 92 2 of 2 0 of 0 49 of 80 5 of 7 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 48 of 92 52% 28 of 66 17 of 23 3 of 3 35 of 76 13 of 15 0 of 1
Dustin Poirier 54 of 87 62% 52 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0 47 of 76 5 of 7 2 of 4
2 Charles Oliveira 23 of 32 71% 19 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 25
Dustin Poirier 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 Charles Oliveira 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to win by submission in the second round, but with low confidence. He notes that Oliveira has improved immensely, answering questions about his cardio and chin. He believes Oliveira can get the fight to the mat, where he is a wizard, and submit Poirier. Poirier has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but has been taken down by grapplers like Dan Hooker. Brady is staying away from moneyline bets and is playing props.

Oliveira by submission in round 2
"i will take oliveira for the upset give me oliveira to win i'm going to say second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the lightweight title. He emphasizes Poirier's finishing instinct, particularly his patented blitz when he hurts opponents, and his ability to throw high volume (350+ strikes in recent fights). Levi notes that Poirier has survived deep submission attempts before, unlike Michael Chandler who made a 'meathead error' against Oliveira. He believes Poirier's composure and experience on big stages will be key, and that he will hurt Oliveira standing and finish him without making a mistake.

"dustin poirier is going to hurt charles oliveira standing and he's not going to make the meathead mistake that a michael chandler made"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Poirier

This is a volatile fight. Poirier is the slightly better boxer and should weather Oliveira's early aggression. Oliveira's striking has improved, but Poirier's defensive soundness and experience in five-round fights give him an edge. The fight likely ends inside the distance, and Poirier's finishing ability in later rounds is key. The 'fight doesn't go to decision' is a strong play.

fight doesn't go to decision, fight doesn't start round 5
"i'm going to be going with the pory side of things here i think he weathers that early storm and then eventually gets uh charles oliveira out of there i'm going to go dustin poirier and you round to tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to win by first-round submission (rear-naked choke). He highlights Oliveira's check hook as a key weapon against Poirier's vulnerability to left hooks. He also notes Poirier's tendency to leave his neck exposed on the ground, as seen against Khabib. He believes Oliveira's confidence in his jiu-jitsu allows him to strike freely, while Poirier will be hesitant due to takedown threats.

first-round rear-naked choke; live bet on Poirier if fight goes to later rounds
"i'm going with my boy charlie olives and this is a switch up as well because originally i was thinking poirier but a while ago i switched to charlie olives"
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 0 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:18
Conor McGregor 0 27 of 38 71% 43 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:18
Conor McGregor 0 27 of 38 71% 43 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 36 of 66 54% 35 of 62 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 20 0 of 0 28 of 46
Conor McGregor 27 of 38 71% 13 of 21 6 of 9 8 of 8 17 of 26 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 36 of 66 54% 35 of 62 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 20 0 of 0 28 of 46
Conor McGregor 27 of 38 71% 13 of 21 6 of 9 8 of 8 17 of 26 1 of 1 9 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Angelo flips his pick from the last fight, now favoring Conor. He notes that in the first fight, Conor landed everything with power and had Dustin in trouble multiple times, but didn't capitalize due to pacing. He believes Conor will have a plan for the leg kicks this time and will get the job done. He also placed a bet on Conor by KO/TKO for plus odds.

Conor by KO/TKO at plus odds
"I think conor wins the i think he wins this fight i'm flipping my pick from the last go-around"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Conor has the X-factor power, being the hardest hitter pound-for-pound, and that Poirier absorbs a lot of strikes (4.17 per minute). He expects Conor to make adjustments, stuff takedowns, check leg kicks, and keep the fight at range. He acknowledges Poirier's durability but believes Conor will land a knockout.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna say conor mcgregor does get a first round knockout here against dustin poirier"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Cody picks Poirier based on Conor's fading cardio after the first round, Poirier's durability and leg kicks, and the American Top Team camp. He notes Conor's power early but expects Poirier to take over late. He hasn't bet yet, waiting to see how the press conferences affect Poirier's mindset.

264 to 1 odds on first round KO via DraftKings promo; suggests live betting Poirier after round 1
"my pick for the purposes of the show right now is dustin poirier i haven't put any money on i want to see how the press conferences go"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the trilogy. He emphasizes Poirier's superior cardio, output, and durability, noting that Poirier has the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history and has shown he can overcome adversity. He points out that since 2016, Poirier is 7-1 while McGregor is 1-3, and that McGregor struggles in deep waters and has diminishing durability. He predicts a submission win for Poirier, citing the check right hook, calf kicks, takedowns, and clinch work as key factors.

Poirier by submission
"i'm going with dustin poury i'm gonna say this time by submission"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Jacob initially favored Dustin but switched to Conor after rewatching the first fight. He notes Conor landed everything in round one but paced himself too much. He thinks Conor will blitz early to avoid calf kicks and finish in the first round. He also mentions a possible staph infection on Conor's elbow, which could affect cardio and push Conor to an early finish.

Conor wins in round 1
"i think conor wins this fight um so i've gone all the way back and i think conor does it i think he does in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

I'm going with Poirier here, but I have no real confidence. I think Poirier's durability and cardio have improved at 155, and he can eat McGregor's shots now. McGregor might have a new game plan, but I expect Poirier to take over in the later rounds and finish him, probably in the third or fourth round. I'm not betting this fight myself, but I like Poirier inside the distance and the fight not going to decision.

under 3.5 rounds, under 4.5 rounds, fight doesn't go to decision, Poirier inside the distance, Poirier round 3, Poirier round 4, Poirier round 5
"i'm going to ultimately be on the poirier side here... i think poirier has the confidence now... and really start to put on mcgregor himself and then eventually finish him late in this fight probably in the third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Paul picks Poirier, citing Conor's durability issues and long layoffs. He notes Conor's power early but believes Poirier's durability and cardio will prevail. He mentions the distraction of Conor's trash talk and the Colby Covington sparring video, but still favors Poirier.

suggests betting Poirier live after the first round
"i'm not i wouldn't rule mcgregor out but we got to go party that would be the logical pick especially at this price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Dustin Poirier

The Guru predicts Poirier will win by TKO in the third round. He expects McGregor to start strong, winning the first two rounds with good striking and body work, but Poirier's calf kicks and clinch work will wear McGregor down. By the third round, McGregor will fatigue, and Poirier will land a big elbow and follow-up shots to finish him against the cage. The Guru notes McGregor will have a more impressive performance than their first fight but the outcome will be the same.

Poirier wins by TKO in round 3
"poirier gets it done but i'm praying for mcgregor to win but i think poirier's gonna get this one done it'll be a more impressive performance by mcgregor but the inevitable outcome will be the same"
TKO (punches) R2 2:32 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 1 48 of 91 52% 53 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:42
Conor McGregor 0 29 of 66 43% 52 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 17 of 37 45% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:40
Conor McGregor 0 15 of 34 44% 38 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
2 Dustin Poirier 1 31 of 54 57% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Conor McGregor 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 48 of 91 52% 30 of 69 0 of 1 18 of 21 46 of 89 0 of 0 2 of 2
Conor McGregor 29 of 66 43% 23 of 60 4 of 4 2 of 2 27 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 17 of 37 45% 8 of 26 0 of 0 9 of 11 17 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Conor McGregor 15 of 34 44% 12 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dustin Poirier 31 of 54 57% 22 of 43 0 of 1 9 of 10 29 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 2
Conor McGregor 14 of 32 43% 11 of 29 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout, similar to their first fight. He notes McGregor's power and accuracy as key advantages, and believes Poirier's cardio won't be a factor because the fight won't go deep. He acknowledges Poirier could be a live dog but ultimately sides with McGregor's striking superiority.

first round knockout
"i think conor mcgregor is going to do the same thing he did in their last fight i don't think it's going to be as early but i do think he's going to knock out dustin poirier"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Daniel Levi picks Conor McGregor to win early, citing McGregor's devastating power and ability to finish fights in the first round. He acknowledges Poirier's improved chin at lightweight and his path to victory if he survives the early storm, but believes McGregor's power is too much. Levi expresses personal rooting interest for Poirier but makes a logical pick for McGregor.

McGregor by early finish
"i'm gonna have to go with mcgregor here to get it done early unfortunately"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

McGregor has the precision and power to replicate his first-round knockout from their first fight. Poirier is durable but has been knocked down by lesser power. McGregor's takedown defense is solid, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Poirier's cardio advantage may not matter if McGregor lands early. I see McGregor winning by first-round KO.

McGregor in round 1 (+175), McGregor in round 2 (+350), under 2.5 rounds (-175)
"I'll go with McGregor to win this fight by first round KO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The MMA Guru believes Conor McGregor's improved boxing, especially his left hand, will be too much for Dustin Poirier. He notes that Poirier has not thrown many kicks since his hip surgery and will rely on boxing, which plays into McGregor's strengths. He predicts McGregor will land a big left hand in the first round, knocking Poirier out cold around the four-minute mark, similar to the Michael Johnson KO. He dismisses the idea of a 60-second KO but is confident McGregor wins.

KO in first round, around 4-minute mark
"mcgregor's gonna be out landing poirier poirier is gonna get frustrated with losing the round he's gonna come forward with with a big exchange and when he does that he's gonna get ko'd the same way he did against michael …"