UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 3"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 4"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Virna Jandiroba
2.27 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
2.86 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
3.13 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Amanda Lemos
2.75 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
3.01 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
64.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Virna Jandiroba
Moneyline
FanDuel -108
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1700
Submission
FanDuel +250
Decision
BetRivers +340
Amanda Lemos
Moneyline
BetRivers +100
KO/TKO
BetRivers +240
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
FanDuel +500
Virna Jandiroba - Fight History
WIN vs Tabatha Ricci
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 26 of 64 40% 122 of 174 6 of 12 50% 0 0 8:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 37 of 82 45% 89 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 3 of 10 30% 26 of 34 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 7 of 13 53% 9 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 9 of 16 56% 61 of 79 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:33
Tabatha Ricci 0 6 of 14 42% 50 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 14 of 38 36% 35 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:27
Tabatha Ricci 0 24 of 55 43% 30 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 26 of 64 40% 19 of 56 7 of 8 0 of 0 24 of 60 1 of 3 1 of 1
Tabatha Ricci 37 of 82 45% 27 of 68 5 of 7 5 of 7 33 of 77 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 7 of 13 53% 5 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 9 of 16 56% 8 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 13 1 of 2 1 of 1
Tabatha Ricci 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Virna Jandiroba 14 of 38 36% 8 of 31 6 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 24 of 55 43% 19 of 47 3 of 5 2 of 3 22 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba, believing she is the better wrestler and can control the fight. He criticizes Tabatha Ricci's striking, saying she thinks she's a boxer but isn't, and her takedowns are poor. He notes Jandiroba is one judge away from being champion and expects her to grind out a win. He placed a half-unit bet on Jandiroba at +115.

Angelo says 'I threw a half a unit on Verna at plus 115.'
"Vera's going to get all the takedowns, have all the control time."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady leans toward Tabatha Ricci but with low confidence. He acknowledges Jandiroba is a higher-level grappler but thinks Ricci is stronger, has better wrestling, and is the better striker. He sees a path where Ricci stuffs takedowns and wins on the feet. He also notes Jandiroba's age (37) and potential lack of motivation after a title loss. He will not bet this fight.

No bet
"I'm leaning Ricci here. Not with a ton of confidence cuz Verna is a tricky tricky fighter to pick and bet against. I will not be betting this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci because she is the better striker and has excellent takedown defense, making it hard for Jandiroba to hold her down. He believes the judges will favor damage over control time, and Ricci's striking will leave a lasting impression.

"Rei just maybe lands a few more damaging blows. Reachi's last fight with Hebas, you saw those elbows from the clinch, big shots against the cage. That's probably what's going to be the lasting impression on the judg's minds."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Connor also picks Jandiroba, agreeing that Ricci's style of fighting forward and trying to grapple will be a problem against a superior grappler. He notes that Jandiroba is a spiritual successor to Damien Maia, always looking to turn striking into takedowns. Connor points out that Ricci hasn't shown the ability to make adjustments against elite fighters and relies too much on physicality, which won't be enough here.

"I also just don't think Ricci will avoid going for her own ground."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host is torn on the winner, seeing strong cases for both. He initially leaned Ricci due to youth and volume, but after research, he sees Jandiroba's power and ground advantage as significant. He concludes the fight is too close to bet pre-fight and prefers live betting. However, he does bet Ricci +3.5 on the fight spread.

Bet on Tabatha Ricci +3.5 (fight spread).
"I do like Richie plus 3.5 just because I think with how much Janderroa slows down and the pace at which Richie fights at, I think no matter what happens, Richie will make Jander Robba work very hard."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)

James mentions the co-main event but does not give a pick for either fighter. He only describes the matchup as interesting.

"We have a co-main event that doesn't light your hair on fire, but it's probably going to be a interesting match-up at least."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

James leans toward Virna Jandiroba as the underdog, surprised by the odds given Jandiroba's recent title fight and superior grappling. He believes Jandiroba's top control and submission threat are the best in the division, and that Ricci hasn't faced such a test. He notes Ricci's striking advantage but doubts her power, calling her knockout of Amanda Ribas a fluke. However, he hesitates due to Jandiroba's age (37) and potential post-title-fight letdown, and mentions he might bet the over instead. He picks Jandiroba via decision but is not confident enough to bet.

Considering over 2.5 rounds; no bet placed
"I have to pick Vera for that reason. I don't know if I'm going to bet her though honestly, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The host believes Jandiroba's grappling will be too much for Ricci, as she can get takedowns and keep Ricci in defensive positions. He notes Ricci's improved striking but doubts she can provide enough danger to keep Jandiroba from her game. He expects Jandiroba to win by decision, controlling the fight with top pressure.

"I think Janji Doba is a good enough grappler that she'll be able to keep Reachi in defensive positions for the most part... I like Jangidoba here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul leans towards Ricci, noting that Jandiroba's grappling-heavy style may not score well if judges prioritize damage. He acknowledges Jandiroba's takedown ability but thinks Ricci's striking and ability to get back up will be key.

"I don't know. It's basically a pick them and it's going to be a fight for who can get top control and really nobody's been getting top control and and and being able to win that type of fight against …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, predicting a controversial decision win. He believes Ricci will be out-grappled but the judges will favor her, possibly setting up a future fight with Mackenzie Dern. He notes Jandiroba looked bad against Dern and that Ricci is coming off a TKO win.

Controversial decision predicted
"I'm going to go with Tabatha Ricci, man. I can see this being a weird scorecard, 29-28. They give it a win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Zane picks Jandiroba, comparing her to Damien Maia as a grappler who knows how to wrestle up and has developed good enough boxing to supplement her grappling. He notes that Ricci is aggressive and fights on the front foot, but is too small to have a dominant top game. Zane believes Ricci's physicality won't be enough against Jandiroba's superior grappling and that Ricci's willingness to engage in the clinch will play into Jandiroba's hands.

"I just got to pick John did over here. I don't think Ricci's ready for that kind of challenge to her game."
LOSS vs Mackenzie Dern
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 106 of 217 48% 208 of 331 9 of 17 52% 0 0 9:07
Mackenzie Dern 0 118 of 231 51% 249 of 372 2 of 8 25% 0 0 3:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 27 of 45 60% 41 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:57
Mackenzie Dern 0 20 of 36 55% 38 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 14 of 34 41% 45 of 72 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:24
Mackenzie Dern 0 19 of 44 43% 50 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 14 of 27 51% 38 of 53 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:09
Mackenzie Dern 0 18 of 32 56% 52 of 68 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:14
4 Virna Jandiroba 0 28 of 58 48% 42 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Mackenzie Dern 0 26 of 62 41% 38 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
5 Virna Jandiroba 0 23 of 53 43% 42 of 73 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:24
Mackenzie Dern 0 35 of 57 61% 71 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 106 of 217 48% 72 of 177 20 of 25 14 of 15 83 of 192 20 of 21 3 of 4
Mackenzie Dern 118 of 231 51% 84 of 193 21 of 25 13 of 13 89 of 199 8 of 10 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 27 of 45 60% 9 of 25 13 of 15 5 of 5 18 of 36 8 of 8 1 of 1
Mackenzie Dern 20 of 36 55% 12 of 27 4 of 5 4 of 4 16 of 30 2 of 3 2 of 3
2 Virna Jandiroba 14 of 34 41% 11 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 12 of 32 1 of 1 1 of 1
Mackenzie Dern 19 of 44 43% 16 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 38 2 of 2 4 of 4
3 Virna Jandiroba 14 of 27 51% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 6 of 6 1 of 2
Mackenzie Dern 18 of 32 56% 13 of 26 4 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 26 2 of 2 4 of 4
4 Virna Jandiroba 28 of 58 48% 20 of 49 3 of 4 5 of 5 26 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 26 of 62 41% 17 of 52 4 of 5 5 of 5 25 of 60 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Virna Jandiroba 23 of 53 43% 18 of 47 3 of 3 2 of 3 20 of 50 3 of 3 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 35 of 57 61% 26 of 48 6 of 6 3 of 3 23 of 45 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba based on gut feeling, despite the line moving against her. He expects the fight to be entirely on the ground, where Virna's wrestling and safe jiu-jitsu will grind out a win. He notes Mackenzie's only path is submission, but Virna won't take risks like Amanda Ribas did. Angelo plans to bet Virna if the line rebounds.

The line sliding in the opposite direction will probably have me placing a bet on Verna by the end of this week. ... I'll probably have some action on Verna.
"I'm going to go with the gut here. ... Verna is going to be the pick. The line sliding in the opposite direction will probably have me placing a bet on Verna by the end of this week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern, highlighting her massive improvements in striking and wrestling. He notes Dern's striking looked incredible against Angela Hill and that she now has power and aggression. He believes Dern's pressure and volume will overwhelm Virna Jandiroba on the feet, as Jandiroba lacks power and may be hesitant to grapple. Brady also cites the five-round distance favoring Dern's cardio and toughness, predicting a fourth-round TKO.

Dern by fourth round TKO; line flipped from plus money; Dern to become strawweight champion
"I got to go Dern here. I think the five rounds heavily favors Mackenzie Dern. Give me Dern here. I'm going to say Dern wins this fight by fourth round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody picks Mackenzie Dern, arguing that over five rounds, Dern's volume, speed, and willingness to engage will outpace Jandiroba's control-heavy style. He notes that Jandiroba's wrestling is elite but she lacks striking output, and Dern's submission defense and scrambling make her dangerous off her back. Cody believes Dern's path is a decision win, as she lands more and is faster.

"I think over five rounds, she's just going to be doing a lot more. She lands more. She's faster."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Connor picks Jandiroba, taking a chance on her improvements in confidence and physicality since the first fight. He believes her wrestling-focused BJJ, reminiscent of Damien Maia, can neutralize Dern's guard attacks if she commits to grappling. He admits it's a hopeful pick but thinks Jandiroba has the tools to win if she doesn't repeat her negative game plan.

"I'm going to take the silly chance pick on Verna Jan Girova, cause I really want her to win and I really do feel like she's put in the work to be a more confident fighter, but I, you know, …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Daniel Vreeland believes Mackenzie Dern's striking evolution and power give her the edge, especially as the fight progresses and Jandiroba slows down. He thinks the ground game will cancel out early, but Dern's improved hands and cardio will allow her to take over in later rounds. He also notes that the winner of the first fight often wins the rematch, especially with an age gap.

"I think in the early going, the ground game is going to kind of cancel itself out. But as the fight progresses and as Janji Doba starts to slow down, that's where I see McKenzie really letting her combinations go."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Lucrative James picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her multiple paths to victory: she can win on the feet, by submission, or by outscrambling. He believes Dern has improved her boxing and wrestling, while Jandiroba's usual path of outgrappling opponents will be neutralized because Dern is dangerous from bottom and can sweep or submit her. He also notes Dern's better cardio and power, and predicts Jandiroba will get rocked at some point. He sees Dern as the underdog with value.

"I'm going to side with Mackenzie Durn here. ... I think she grits out a win here. TKO submission decision. I don't care. I'm picking McKenzie Durn money line."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The host expects Dern to replicate her 2020 win by putting together better striking, scrambling well in grappling, and winning a clear decision to become the new strawweight champion.

decision
"I expect her to replicate that performance... and new strawweight champion McKenzie Durn."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Dern has a great chin and throws more volume. He notes that Jandiroba's path to victory relies on takedowns and control, but Dern is crafty off her back. Paul also mentions that Jandiroba has never fought five rounds in the UFC and is 37, suggesting that if she wins early rounds, she may fade, making Dern a strong live bet as well.

"Dern just kind of if it turns into a slobberknocker on the feet, one Dern's got a great chin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba by decision, expecting a split decision. He believes Jandiroba is more focused on her career than Dern, who has personal distractions. He notes that Jandiroba has been winning against top competition (Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos) and has good takedowns and control. He references their first fight where Jandiroba had control time and takedowns. He expects a low-paced fight with Jandiroba dragging Dern around, winning clearly but with one judge giving Dern a round.

split decision; Jandiroba wins 49-46
"I'm going to go with Virna Jandiroba getting this one done. She'll win it clearly, but it'll be a split decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Zane picks Dern, citing a sinking feeling that Jandiroba will repeat her first fight mistake of being too respectful of Dern's ground game. He notes Dern's confidence and power on the feet, and believes Jandiroba's negative game plan will lead to her being outworked. However, he acknowledges Jandiroba's improvements and calls it a hope-based pick.

"I'm going to pick Mackenzie Dern, cause I just have a sinking feeling that Verna is, this is going to be the rare opponent where she actually has respect for her ground game and it's going to trick herself into …"
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yan Xiaonan 0 17 of 44 38% 64 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:27
Virna Jandiroba 0 11 of 20 55% 96 of 131 3 of 11 27% 3 1 9:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yan Xiaonan 0 6 of 17 35% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Virna Jandiroba 0 4 of 9 44% 18 of 31 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:03
2 Yan Xiaonan 0 4 of 6 66% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:27
Virna Jandiroba 0 0 of 1 0% 40 of 51 1 of 1 100% 2 1 4:14
3 Yan Xiaonan 0 7 of 21 33% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 10 70% 38 of 49 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yan Xiaonan 17 of 44 38% 13 of 34 3 of 7 1 of 3 12 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 6
Virna Jandiroba 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yan Xiaonan 6 of 17 35% 4 of 11 2 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Virna Jandiroba 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1
2 Yan Xiaonan 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5
Virna Jandiroba 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yan Xiaonan 7 of 21 33% 5 of 17 1 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 2
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Connor picks Virna Jandiroba, arguing that the only fighters to beat her are those who can scramble with her, and he doesn't believe Yan is that type of fighter. He notes that Jandiroba's pressure and wrestling will force Yan to fight on the back foot, and that Jandiroba has a proven ability to turn messy situations into wins. Connor acknowledges Yan's striking improvements but thinks Jandiroba's grappling will be the deciding factor.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm gonna pick Jan-Joroba. I think she can take that mess and turn it into the wind."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Levi credits Yan Xiaonan for surviving three rounds on the mat with Virna Jandiroba despite being a blue belt, but acknowledges Jandiroba's victory. He states Jandiroba earned her title shot and should face Zhang Weili next.

"Verna Jeanji Doba and Yan Jean. Yeah. You know, firstly, credit to Yan Jean. you know, you're a blue belt and you survived three rounds on the mat with arguably one of the best black belts... And for Verna, congrats, …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Zane picks Yan Xiaonan, citing her rapid improvement and newfound confidence after her title fight loss. He believes her striking at range is superior to Jandiroba's previous opponents, and that Jandiroba's game relies on opponents making huge mistakes, which Yan is less prone to. Zane acknowledges Yan's grappling weakness but sees a clear path for her to bank points and do damage at range.

Jandiroba opened at -159, now -149; Yan opened at +132, now +126. Zane likes that the odds are close.
"I think I have a feeling Jan-Joroba is gonna win this, but I think I'm gonna pick Jan though."
WIN vs Amanda Lemos
Submission (armbar) R2 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 2 of 9 22% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:51
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 8 25% 20 of 27 1 of 5 20% 4 1 6:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
Amanda Lemos 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:42
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 8 12% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 7 28% 12 of 18 0 of 4 0% 2 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 2 of 9 22% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 2 of 8 25% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 2 of 7 28% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.

waiting for prop bets, especially takedown line
"I've got to pick Verna here this is definitely a steep test it'll be her first five round fight at first Main Event she is Affordable at even money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.

"I'm gonna chase the other side and go Verna."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.

"I'm GNA lean with Verna janida because I do think she's going to have that early um upside you know in terms of getting those takedowns in terms of those near submission attempts possibly getting a submission attempt and wearing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.

submission
"I'm going to say jandi Roba by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.

"I'm kind of tempted by Amanda Lemos in this spot... close to a pick 'em fight but give me Amanda Lemos at plus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.

"I'll go jander Roba I'll Trust in a favorite here I'll go jandera"
WIN vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 30 of 108 27% 86 of 180 2 of 9 22% 3 1 6:35
Loopy Godinez 0 38 of 95 40% 50 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 12 of 45 26% 18 of 53 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:47
Loopy Godinez 0 13 of 34 38% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 21 23% 38 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:31
Loopy Godinez 0 9 of 26 34% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:57
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 13 of 42 30% 30 of 64 1 of 4 25% 3 0 2:17
Loopy Godinez 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 30 of 108 27% 27 of 100 3 of 8 0 of 0 30 of 106 0 of 2 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 38 of 95 40% 25 of 79 11 of 14 2 of 2 30 of 82 7 of 11 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 12 of 45 26% 12 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 13 of 34 38% 9 of 28 4 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 9 of 26 34% 6 of 23 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 22 1 of 2 1 of 2
3 Virna Jandiroba 13 of 42 30% 10 of 35 3 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 16 of 35 45% 10 of 28 6 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 30 3 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo picks Loopy Godinez, believing she is better everywhere, including wrestling. He notes Virna Jandiroba is a grinder with a one-dimensional game plan of shooting takedowns. He thinks Godinez's striking improvements and defensive wrestling will be enough to win, though he acknowledges Jandiroba's relentless takedown attempts could be a problem.

"lupy is better than Verna janer Roba literally everywhere even wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 25, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but expresses concern about her fight IQ. He believes Godinez should keep the fight standing to avoid Jandiroba's dangerous BJJ, but worries she might wrestle unnecessarily. He thinks Godinez is the much better striker and should stuff takedowns, but is not fully confident due to her past poor decisions.

minus 180
"give me loopy I'll take it to win by decision um minus 180 uh I don't know I don't know if I can trust her but I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody believes Godinez is the better boxer and wrestler, with superior cardio and durability. He thinks Jandiroba's one-dimensional grappling won't be enough, and even if she gets takedowns, Godinez will survive and win rounds with striking volume.

"would have to go lupy ginz"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Loopy Godinez, citing her superior striking, power, and athleticism. He thinks she can keep the fight standing and use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan to avoid Jandiroba's dangerous jiu-jitsu. He notes Jandiroba's willingness to stand and trade, which plays into Godinez's hands. He predicts Godinez by decision.

"official pick loopy decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Godinez has improved striking and wrestling advantage. Jandiroba's hands are poor; she got outboxed by McKenzie Dern and Amanda Lemos. Godinez should keep the fight standing and land punches, potentially earning her first UFC knockout. The plus 750 KO prop is worth a sprinkle. Godinez controls pace and location.

Godinez by knockout (+750)
"I believe the last I saw was plus 750 H her to win by knockout worth a little bit of a Sprinkle"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul sees Godinez as the more versatile fighter, able to win on the feet or with wrestling. He notes Jandiroba's aging and limited striking, and expects Godinez to outwork her over three rounds, likely by decision.

"loopy by decision is how I kind of see this one shaking out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The host picks Loopy Godinez, stating he never picks Virna Jandiroba. He believes Godinez can keep the fight on the feet and has a boxing and grit advantage. He thinks Godinez's grappling is good enough to defend takedowns and that she will win a decision, possibly 29-28. He notes that close decisions tend to go against Jandiroba.

decision win
"I am gonna go lupy godinez because I'm never picking Vera jander Roba to win a fight there's a rule I have not picking her"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 33 of 62 53% 115 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 27 of 43 62% 91 of 116 3 of 7 42% 0 1 12:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:36
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 16 68% 34 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 1 4:06
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 21 of 42 50% 70 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 12 of 20 60% 26 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 33 of 62 53% 27 of 52 5 of 8 1 of 2 10 of 37 3 of 3 20 of 22
Marina Rodriguez 27 of 43 62% 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 22 5 of 5 15 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 6
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 8
3 Virna Jandiroba 21 of 42 50% 19 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 28 1 of 1 11 of 13
Marina Rodriguez 12 of 20 60% 10 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.

do not bet on this fight - feels like a trap
"Marina's gonna be the pick but for just absolute shit's sake do not bet on this fight this feels like a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.

Second round submission prediction
"I'm actually going to go with we're going to generobo to win this fight by submission I think she's going to get a ton of opportunities here to get that submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.

"I would take the plus money shot here on gender Robo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116.
"I think I have to agree with that with not a whole lot to add."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.

"I'm hoping from the improvements that we've been seeing from Rodriguez over our last several fights she'll be able to keep this fight upright land the more significant strikes and get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.

"I took a stale plus 140 the market moved a little bit but I still think I like plus 125s"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.

decision win
"I'm gonna side with Marina Rodriguez here ... bouncing back with a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116; odds tightening but Zane thinks it's not deserved.
"I just don't trust Jandiroba to get into the kind of insane exchanges that Rodriguez creates one way or the other."
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 14 of 60 23% 92 of 151 3 of 8 37% 0 0 7:04
Angela Hill 0 21 of 55 38% 44 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 21 23% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:17
Angela Hill 0 4 of 17 23% 11 of 25 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 6 of 27 22% 30 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:44
Angela Hill 0 12 of 27 44% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:13
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 3 of 12 25% 46 of 62 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:03
Angela Hill 0 5 of 11 45% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 14 of 60 23% 13 of 52 1 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
Angela Hill 21 of 55 38% 14 of 42 7 of 13 0 of 0 19 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 21 23% 4 of 16 1 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Angela Hill 4 of 17 23% 3 of 11 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 6 of 27 22% 6 of 24 0 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Angela Hill 12 of 27 44% 6 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0 10 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Virna Jandiroba 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Angela Hill 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Virna Jandiroba
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jandiroba (-165), Hill (+145)

Round 1
For the victor, a spot will remain in the top 15 of the tumultuous strawweight division, while the defeated may tumble out of the rankings – and the company itself – altogether. Even though Jandiroba (17-3, 3-3 UFC) and Hill (13-11, 8-11 UFC) swam in the same circles of
Invicta Fighting Championships
’ and the UFC’s 115-pound category, their paths never crossed until tonight. These two ex-Invicta champs will receive oversight from referee Mark Smith, and do not touch ‘em up before proceeding to try and bludgeon, strangle or otherwise inflict great bodily harm on the other. Hill takes the center of the cage with one hand lower, perhaps anticipating a takedown while not remotely concerned with the Brazilian’s striking. If history is any indication, this might be a solid strategy. The stance allows Hill to stave off a takedown setup, and when she is paying attention to this, Jandiroba has two punches land across the bow. Jandiroba absorbs a right hand back, and as soon as Hill commits to punches, “Carcara” bullies her way into a takedown attempt. Jandiroba pushes Hill back across the cage to the fence, and Hill stuffs her and pushes Jandiroba over. This is not to her best interest, as Jandiroba falls to her seat and hunts for a leglock of some sort. Going for a kneebar, an ankle lock or anything she can snatch up, Hill is quickly in danger, with Hill’s left leg extended outward as Jandiroba is hanging on to it. Hill grimaces in pain as she hangs on to Jandiroba’s wrists, and Hill sits up to attempt to punch her way out of the sub and successfully does so. Jandiroba considers another submission setup, but she cannot keep Hill grounded. They stay tied up in the clinch when standing up again, and they both try to whip the other around for a takedown. Hill starts letting loose with knees to the body as Jandiroba is happy to remain tied up, and Hill looks to break off but Jandiroba is not letting go. Hill finally explodes her way out, and Jandiroba throws out a few hands while Hill is hesitant to engage. Hill swats away offense before ducking down and goes for a double, and she hits it only to get reversed as soon as they hit the mat. Jandiroba ends the round on top in an odd position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba

Round 2
Hill strikes first to begin the second round, and Jandiroba is more active and meets her in the middle with several more strikes in volume. They trade punches until Jandiroba closes in for a clinch, and after landing one knee up the middle, she abandons it and lets Hill swing back hitting air. Jandiroba goes over the top with a surprisingly effective right hand, and Hill blitzes into a tie-up so that she can hammer the midsection with a veritable bouquet of knees. Jandiroba scores a single elbow on the break, but Hill is energized, stringing three punches together as she gives chase. Hill presses forward to clinch, and they jockey for position and meet with knees on the sternum. Jandiroba breaks, and she looks for a one-two while Hill counters with a clean right hand. In the open cage, Jandiroba dives down for a takedown and practically tackles Hill over to plop her on the ground. Hill defends with a single butterfly hook as Jandiroba is on top heavily in half guard, and she cinches her own lets around Hill’s to shut down any possible escapes from “Overkill.” Jandiroba steps over to a dominant position, but instead of taking it, she snags hold of Hill’s left arm in search of an armbar or a kimura lock. Jandiroba turns it to an armbar as she falls to her back to lock it up, and Hill steps over and stacks Jandiroba up to keep the arm safe from harm. Jandiroba keeps that submission tied up as Hill’s knee crushes on Jandiroba’s jaw, and this posture of Hill along with her rocking back and forth allows Hill to make it to the third round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba

Round 3
Hill is aggressive to start the third round, and she throws hands fast and lets them go to nail Jandiroba upside the head. Jandiroba is stunned momentarily, and Hill rolls through to rip an uppercut. The punches get Jandiroba’s attention, forcing the Brazilian to shoot for a double that presses Hill to the wall. Hill keeps herself upright thanks to the fence behind her, but Jandiroba turns the corner and yanks her down to the canvas. “Overkill” instantly attacks with elbows off her back while Jandiroba is slithering her way through gain better top position, and she lines up north-south before taking Hill’s back as Hill looks to stand. Jandiroba holds on to a leg tightly to wrench Hill right back down to the ground almost as soon as Hill stands, and “Carcara” gladly lowers herself into Hill’s guard as Hill closes it around her. Time is ticking away from Hill’s chances at pulling off a comeback, and Jandiroba is comfortable wearing on Hill and working the body with short, stay-busy punches. Hill hangs on with a lock around Jandiroba’s shoulder, possibly for a straight armlock off her back, and Jandiroba wriggles her arm out and continues her smothering top control. With Jandiroba clinging to half guard, Hill explodes in an effort to get up. This does not work to her benefit, as Jandiroba follows her all the way through to take Hill’s back. With 10 seconds to spare, Hill turns Jandiroba around and gets on top, and Jandiroba throws her legs up high to prevent any offense from “Overkill” in the remainder of the match. The fight ends in this stalemate position, and as the horn sounds, Jandiroba hoots and shouts in celebration after a likely victory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba (30-27 Jandiroba)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba (30-27 Jandiroba)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba (30-27 Jandiroba)

The Official Result
Virna Jandiroba def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Cody picks Hill as a dog, noting her fights are always close and competitive. He thinks Jandiroba's cardio is suspect and she may not be able to maintain takedown pressure for three rounds. He believes Hill can out-volume her on the feet and make it a close decision, though he's not highly confident.

"i'm gonna take angela hill that'll be my dog number two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Paul also leans toward Hill, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Hill's volume striking and that Jandiroba struggles to get takedowns against good grapplers. He thinks if Hill can keep it standing, she wins the volume game. However, he acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ from top is nasty and she could bank the first two rounds.

"i think it's dogger pass though it's like you have to be really confident that vern is going to be able to get to this to the mat otherwise i think angel angela hill just out volume sir"
LOSS vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 88 of 233 37% 124 of 273 1 of 5 20% 1 0 0:43
Virna Jandiroba 1 50 of 155 32% 119 of 224 1 of 8 12% 0 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 8 of 18 44% 36 of 50 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:05
Virna Jandiroba 1 12 of 23 52% 79 of 90 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:06
2 Amanda Ribas 0 26 of 83 31% 33 of 90 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
Virna Jandiroba 0 12 of 62 19% 14 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Ribas 0 54 of 132 40% 55 of 133 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Virna Jandiroba 0 26 of 70 37% 26 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 88 of 233 37% 59 of 194 15 of 24 14 of 15 84 of 227 4 of 6 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 50 of 155 32% 46 of 141 4 of 14 0 of 0 46 of 148 1 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 8 of 18 44% 5 of 13 1 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 12 of 23 52% 12 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 18 1 of 2 3 of 3
2 Amanda Ribas 26 of 83 31% 18 of 71 6 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 80 2 of 3 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 12 of 62 19% 9 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Amanda Ribas 54 of 132 40% 36 of 110 8 of 11 10 of 11 53 of 130 1 of 2 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 26 of 70 37% 25 of 61 1 of 9 0 of 0 26 of 69 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady slightly leans towards Virna Jandiroba to win a close decision. He acknowledges Ribas has the striking advantage, but Jandiroba's wrestling and ground game are next level. He thinks Jandiroba will get takedowns and control the fight on the mat, squeaking out a decision. He notes Ribas's takedown defense may be misleading and Jandiroba's confidence on the ground is high.

"I'm going to slightly lean with jandarova here and i'm actually going to say i'll say i'll be i'll save my decision i'll say she wins a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody leans towards Jandiroba as a dog, noting her wrestling and grappling advantage. He thinks her striking has improved (shown against Kanako Murata). He questions Ribas's level of competition (soft wins) and thinks Jandiroba could grind out a decision if she gets top control. He calls it a pass but sees value on the dog.

"if i was gonna take that first underdog shot it might be an averted chandranova"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel slightly leans with Amanda Ribas, citing her athleticism and cleaner striking. He acknowledges her chin is a concern and that Jandiroba has improved stand-up and strong jiu-jitsu. Daniel thinks Ribas can keep the fight on the outside and out-hustle Jandiroba to a decision, but he is not fully confident due to Ribas's durability issues.

"i still am slightly leaning with a amanda heba so give me her for the dub"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is the better grappler and will likely take Ribas down and control her. Ribas' striking is flashy but she gets in trouble against pressure. Jandiroba should land takedowns and grind out a decision, especially if she trusts her jiu-jitsu.

Jandiroba by decision.
"I like the januaroba side here plus 145 and it looks like the money is coming in on amanda hebas."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas by decision, citing her speed and striking ability. He thinks her ability to get in and out of the pocket will be the difference. He sees the line as close to correct.

"i got rebus winning probably by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas clearly. He states she is better on the feet and on the ground. He notes that Jandiroba was outstruck by Mackenzie Dern, while Ribas danced around Dern. He dismisses Jandiroba's grappling threat and cardio. He predicts Ribas will win by unanimous decision, dancing around for three rounds, 30-27.

"this is ribassa's fight in my opinion pretty clearly"
Amanda Lemos - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 42 of 73 57% 51 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:04
Gillian Robertson 0 12 of 26 46% 64 of 81 3 of 7 42% 0 2 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 25 of 37 67% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 15 33% 9 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:38
2 Amanda Lemos 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Gillian Robertson 0 2 of 3 66% 26 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 8 62% 29 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 42 of 73 57% 31 of 61 8 of 8 3 of 4 27 of 57 2 of 2 13 of 14
Gillian Robertson 12 of 26 46% 5 of 12 2 of 4 5 of 10 10 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 25 of 37 67% 18 of 29 6 of 6 1 of 2 12 of 23 1 of 1 12 of 13
Gillian Robertson 5 of 15 33% 2 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 6 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 10 of 19 52% 7 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gillian Robertson 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 8 62% 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.

"I'm a little nervous, but I do think Jillian wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.

"Give me Gillian Robertson to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.

"I'm probably just going to not have the coonies to take the dog play and take Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"I got to pick her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"my official prediction boys will be Jillian Robinson gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.

Lemos by KO
"I'm going to go with the Brazilian here. I know she's getting up there in age... Lemos has enough defensive grappling to shut that down from Robertson, keep this in the striking game and eventually find that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

"Julian Robertson's a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.

Prediction: submission in the second round
"I'm going to go with Gillian Robertson getting this one done by submission in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"Yeah, I think I'm leaning Robertson. I mean, it's very clearly a fight where she could get nuked, but she could just hold it together."
CANCEL vs Gillian Robertson
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"Gillian Robertson's the pick for me as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.

Odds: Lemos +170 underdog. Connor feels the line is long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I think she has unlike Lamo. She has continued to improve... but there is a conspicuous lack of meaningful athletic talent on her under her wind column."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.

"My official prediction boys will be Julian Robinson. Gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"G Rob by decision for me."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.

Odds: Robertson opened -110, now -200; Lemos opened -110, now +170. Zane notes the line feels long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I'm gonna pick my mush. I'm gonna stick with the idea that there's just a ceiling to Robertson's game that she imposes on herself."
LOSS vs Tatiana Suarez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 20 of 39 51% 70 of 91 3 of 12 25% 0 0 9:34
Amanda Lemos 0 23 of 33 69% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 10 70% 25 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 14 35% 27 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:00
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 5 100% 16 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 8 of 15 53% 18 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:36
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 20 of 39 51% 1 of 11 10 of 17 9 of 11 9 of 24 11 of 15 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 23 of 33 69% 12 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 22 4 of 4 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 10 70% 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 6 83% 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 14 35% 1 of 7 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 6 4 of 8 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 5 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tatiana Suarez 8 of 15 53% 0 of 4 6 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 22 59% 11 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 12 3 of 3 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.

Could be a sneaky under two and a half type bet when those round lines drop.
"I'm definitely going to pick Tatiana. I think the wrestling is just going to be too hard to consistently stop."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.

Second round submission
"I'm going to take Suarez to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Connor also picks Suarez, noting that Lemos's wrestling won't work against Suarez. He mentions that Lemos has good explosion but not follow-up, and that Suarez should be able to control positions. He acknowledges the risk that Suarez might not have improved since her loss to Weili Zhang.

Suarez opened at -300, now -470; Lemos opened at +250, now +370
"I'm inclined to take Suarez... I really really hope we see Suarez come out and display some more depth and breadth to her game."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.

win by submission
"We should eventually see Suarez land those takedowns and work to a position where she can eventually incorporate a submission and force the tap from the Brazilian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"I'm going to have to go with Tatiana Suarez. I think Lemos's style of fighting ... will leave her more open to the grappling of Suarez."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez but hopes to see growth in her striking. He notes that Lemos hits hard and has good fight management, but her wrestling is her safety valve and she won't be able to take Suarez down. He thinks Suarez's wrestling and top game should be enough, but he wants to see her use her jab and footwork.

Suarez opened at -300, now -470; Lemos opened at +250, now +370
"I'm inclined to take Suarez to I really really hope we see Suarez come out and display some more depth and breadth to her game... Anyway, we're still picking her."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 12 of 21 57% 30 of 42 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:58
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 16 25% 40 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 4 0% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:41
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 3 0% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 4 50% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 9 44% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 12 of 21 57% 8 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 6
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 16 25% 2 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 7 of 12 58% 4 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Connor is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think I have to pick Limo. I think so too. I mean, the prospect of staying at long range and waiting and hoping to time a man to lamos, yeah, is a fundamentally dangerous proposition."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.

Lucindo via submission at +550 (BetOnline); also decision win possible
"I have to side with Yasmin lendo here she's got better fight IQ she has more ways to win CU she can compete in the strike and if she stays at range but she can win via submiss and win …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Zane is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think this is actually a case where she is too young and raw for this fighter right now and she does not look like yeah, any of the fighters that have beat Amanda Lamos in the past several years."
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Submission (armbar) R2 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 2 of 9 22% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:51
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 8 25% 20 of 27 1 of 5 20% 4 1 6:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
Amanda Lemos 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:42
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 8 12% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 7 28% 12 of 18 0 of 4 0% 2 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 2 of 9 22% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 2 of 8 25% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 2 of 7 28% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.

waiting for prop bets, especially takedown line
"I've got to pick Verna here this is definitely a steep test it'll be her first five round fight at first Main Event she is Affordable at even money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.

"I'm gonna chase the other side and go Verna."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.

"I'm GNA lean with Verna janida because I do think she's going to have that early um upside you know in terms of getting those takedowns in terms of those near submission attempts possibly getting a submission attempt and wearing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.

submission
"I'm going to say jandi Roba by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.

"I'm kind of tempted by Amanda Lemos in this spot... close to a pick 'em fight but give me Amanda Lemos at plus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.

"I'll go jander Roba I'll Trust in a favorite here I'll go jandera"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 1 41 of 80 51% 47 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:02
Mackenzie Dern 0 21 of 54 38% 50 of 85 1 of 3 33% 0 2 6:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mackenzie Dern 0 8 of 22 36% 19 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:45
2 Amanda Lemos 1 24 of 51 47% 27 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:09
Mackenzie Dern 0 8 of 24 33% 11 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 6 100% 9 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:53
Mackenzie Dern 0 5 of 8 62% 20 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 41 of 80 51% 26 of 62 8 of 10 7 of 8 24 of 56 1 of 2 16 of 22
Mackenzie Dern 21 of 54 38% 21 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 1 13 of 42 0 of 1 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 11 of 23 47% 4 of 15 3 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 8 of 22 36% 8 of 20 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Amanda Lemos 24 of 51 47% 17 of 42 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 32 1 of 2 11 of 17
Mackenzie Dern 8 of 24 33% 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 1 8 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 6 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5
Mackenzie Dern 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.

"Amanda lamos is going to be the pick I think the odds at minus 125 based on the rant I just went on are fantastic odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.

Dern by submission
"I'm gonna take dur here as a dog as far as a pick goes I'll say she Subs lamos but I can't trust either of these Fighters"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.

"I like d as well but yeah I I don't even think I'm going to chase a prop on this one cuz um I see both pass to Victory..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.

"I'm staying away from this one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.

"we're going Lemos hard uh and and this is coming from maybe one of the preeminent uh McKenzie dur fans... I think LMO should be a negative 200 favorite here or better like negative 130 just not high enough I'm …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.

"lamos is is the pick good number on this fight as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.

"I expect her power to come through once again for her as she keeps D at Bay and eventually finds that knockout in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.

"I got D yeah."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos, calling her a dangerous power puncher and criticizing Mackenzie Dern's striking as nonexistent. He believes Lemos will have improved her grappling defense after being dominated by Zhang Weili. He predicts a brutal TKO stoppage in round one, stating Dern has never practiced striking for MMA.

"Amanda Lemos gets it done TKO... Dern has never practiced striking for MMA in her entire life."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Decision (unanimous) (50–43, 50–44, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 1 163 of 217 75% 296 of 358 6 of 7 85% 0 0 16:07
Amanda Lemos 0 24 of 63 38% 29 of 68 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 44 of 55 80% 74 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 16 of 20 80% 49 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:47
Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Zhang Weili 0 20 of 29 68% 31 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Zhang Weili 0 28 of 45 62% 28 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
5 Zhang Weili 1 55 of 68 80% 114 of 129 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 163 of 217 75% 106 of 150 37 of 42 20 of 25 50 of 77 17 of 18 96 of 122
Amanda Lemos 24 of 63 38% 19 of 57 3 of 4 2 of 2 23 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 44 of 55 80% 36 of 47 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 41 of 52
Amanda Lemos 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 16 of 20 80% 10 of 13 6 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 8 4 of 4 7 of 8
Amanda Lemos 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 20 of 29 68% 11 of 19 5 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 14 8 of 9 4 of 6
Amanda Lemos 5 of 12 41% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 28 of 45 62% 7 of 17 9 of 12 12 of 16 26 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 37 35% 11 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 55 of 68 80% 42 of 54 11 of 12 2 of 2 8 of 9 3 of 3 44 of 56
Amanda Lemos 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.

Parlay with Marlon Vera
"Wei Li Zhang is the pick one of the more confident picks and I have her in that parlay with Cheeto... I think she's going to get it done I think she's going to keep the belt."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.

win by KO, round 3
"I like Zhang Whaley here to win this fight I'll say third round knockout for Zhang Wei Lee"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.

over 3.5 rounds at +170; fight time over 15.5 minutes
"I think the champion Zang Yale goes out and does what she does best and that's just dominate I mean she's pretty much I always calls uh I don't always call but some Fighters are just generalists like they're generally …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.

Zhang by submission or ground and pound; -330 price is high but Zhang should get it done
"I think Zhang Wally is going to get her to the ground and finish her via submission or grounding pound"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.

moneyline at plus 250
"Amanda Lemos knocks out Wei Lee Jiang and she becomes the new strawweight champion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.

Zhang wins inside distance, under 3.5 rounds, under 4.5 rounds
"I'm going to take Wiley Zhang I think she wins this fight inside the distance I'm going to be targeting that specific prop in the spot as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.

"I'm going with Zhang Whaley over Amanda Lemos"
TKO (punches) R3 0:54 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 19 of 52 36% 44 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 53 54% 43 of 67 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 9 of 29 31% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 15 26% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 16 50% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 19 of 52 36% 6 of 26 3 of 8 10 of 18 18 of 51 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 29 of 53 54% 16 of 36 10 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 48 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 9 of 29 31% 1 of 9 1 of 5 7 of 15 8 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 18 61% 4 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 4 of 15 26% 1 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 8 of 16 50% 4 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 19 52% 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

this may be a mandala most win inside the distance decision no choking decision no action bet if a Mandela most wins by submission or knockout I'll get paid if she loses a decision which is the most likely outcome I'll get a full refund
"I do have Marina winning I think it's sort of the volume that does it but she needs to avoid the power stay Technical and beat Amanda the same way that Angela hill almost did"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Rodriguez wins by knockout in round 4
"I like Rodriguez here to win I'm gonna take her to win by fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Marina Rodriguez by decision
"I will take Marina Rodriguez Marina Rodriguez by decision but you know I'm not I'm not running to the book you say and take my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

No bet; line considered wide
"I lean with Marina Rodriguez... I don't have a bet on this fight and I don't really have an interest in betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Rodriguez round 5 TKO; round 4 or 5 decision
"give me Marina Rodriguez round five TKO I think glamos will be on fumes by that point"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

under on total rounds (considering), Marina Rodriguez 120 significant strikes on PrizePicks (considering)
"Marina Rodriguez is the pick for the purposes of the show I'm not gonna be attacking the minus 220 though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.

48-47 or 49-46 decision
"I'm going Marina Rodriguez here... I'll go 48 47 49 46 Marina Rodriguez but she loses the first round."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.

waiting for prop bets, especially takedown line
"I've got to pick Verna here this is definitely a steep test it'll be her first five round fight at first Main Event she is Affordable at even money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.

"I'm gonna chase the other side and go Verna."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.

"I'm GNA lean with Verna janida because I do think she's going to have that early um upside you know in terms of getting those takedowns in terms of those near submission attempts possibly getting a submission attempt and wearing out um lamos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.

submission
"I'm going to say jandi Roba by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.

"I'm kind of tempted by Amanda Lemos in this spot... close to a pick 'em fight but give me Amanda Lemos at plus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.

"I'll go jander Roba I'll Trust in a favorite here I'll go jandera"