vs
-163 +155
UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Steve Garcia
5.39 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
2.12 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.86 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
88.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - SeungWoo Choi
3.56 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
3.16 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Steve Garcia
Moneyline
BetWay -163
KO/TKO
FanDuel +125
Submission
BetRivers +1100
Decision
FanDuel +750
SeungWoo Choi
Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
BetRivers +235
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
FanDuel +900
Steve Garcia - Fight History
SCHED vs Diego Lopes
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

AJ is leaning towards Steve Garcia, citing Garcia's terrifying hands and cardio to go three hard rounds. He thinks Garcia could outstrike Lopes and notes that Lopes is not a grapple smotherer, making it hard for him to control Garcia. He also mentions Garcia's chin and finishing ability.

"I think I'm gonna end up going Steve Garcia. I won't lie to you guys."
WIN vs David Onama
KO R1 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 33 of 62 53% 43 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Onama 0 2 of 16 12% 2 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 33 of 62 53% 43 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Onama 0 2 of 16 12% 2 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 33 of 62 53% 28 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 5 of 7 2 of 3
David Onama 2 of 16 12% 1 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 33 of 62 53% 28 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 5 of 7 2 of 3
David Onama 2 of 16 12% 1 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. David Onama
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-130); Onama (+110)

Round 1
It’s time for the main event, a ranked featherweight five-rounder that should be a banger. After what has happened so far tonight, one can hope that Herb Dean can keep things legitimate because there have been some
serious
questions of integrity tonight. Garcia (18-5, 7-2 UFC) and Onama (14-2, 6-2 UFC) are about to let their hands go, and before they do, Dean brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions. Will they follow them? Who the heck knows.
The main event opens with a fist bump from the athletes. The featherweights are jittery and trying to figure things out early, so Garcia breaks that silence about 15 seconds in with a clubbing right hand. He walks Onama down, peppering him with his jab and follow-up left hook. Onama bounces off the fence, so Garcia chases him down with a bouquet of blistering left hands. Garcia mixes up body shots, and he snaps out a jab to intercept a front kick. Garcia reaches out with a left hook, shaking Onama up, and he continues to chain together his lefts. Onama fires back when he back, but Garcia’s volume and looping lefts are getting Onama’s attention time and time again.
Garcia steps in behind a left hand, and Onama is tough but quickly becoming a heavy bag. Garcia beats his man to the punch with a combo featuring his left, and when Onama bounces back up, Garcia comes right after him. “Mean Machine” does not let Onama off the hook, blasting him with a number of left hands that knock him from one side of the cage to another. Garcia lets fly a head kick as well, and he continues to rush at “Silent Assassin” with a barrage of brutal lefts. Onama fires back and shreds open a cut on Garcia’s eyebrow, but Garcia is a man on a mission and wants to finish the job.
Garcia’s offense wilts Onama, bending him over with a liver kick. He sees his opening to put the Factory X fighter away and takes it, swarming him with punches that topple Onama to the floor. From there, Garcia keeps pounding away as Onama turtles up, and only a few hammerfists are needed for “Mean Machine” to seal the deal.
Onama protests when Dean calls a halt to the match, but he soon realizes that he will not be convincing anyone after his performance. This was one-way traffic for the Jackson-Wink fighter, who prevails in under four minutes and punches his ticket to greater things coming soon. While the triumphant man calls out Max Holloway for the BMF belt, he may have to look elsewhere to climb the ladder before getting there. When he does compete next, however, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. David Onama R1 3:34 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia, citing his awkward, lurching movement and sheer size for the weight class as problematic for David Onama. He notes Garcia's power and forward pressure, but acknowledges Onama is faster and more technical. He mentions Garcia has been knocked out before, while Onama hasn't, but doesn't see Onama knocking him out. He calls it a close competitive fight and leans Garcia.

"I do like Steve Garcia in this match-up because I think he has... awkward enough that it can be a problem."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
David Onama

Big Brady leans toward David Onama, citing Steve Garcia's tendency to leave openings and get dropped, as seen in fights against Charlie Ontiveros and Maheshate. He acknowledges Garcia hits hard and is all violence, but believes Onama is more durable and can take advantage. He predicts a second-round knockout for Onama.

second round knockout, plus 110 underdog
"I'm going to I'm going to lean with Oama just because I can't get the the Antivero's fight out of my head. ... I'll actually go Oama to win this fight. I'll take on to win this fight by second …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
David Onama

Connor picks Onama, reasoning that Garcia's losses are worse than Onama's, with more randomness. He notes that Onama has lost to wild brawlers like Nate Landwehr and Mason Jones, which could be Steve Garcia, but those were exhausting fights. He thinks Onama may find success with wrestling and is a better athlete than Garcia's recent opponents.

"I think I am going to pick David Onama here. I think if we're doing some MMA math Steve Garcia's losses are worse than David Onama's."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
David Onama

Lucrative James picks David Onama to win by knockout, but he is not confident. He notes that both fighters have questionable chins and get hurt often, but Onama has never been finished while Garcia has been knocked out before. He also mentions Onama's superior training partners, including Justin Gaethje, and his wrestling upside as potential advantages. However, he emphasizes that this is a pick'em fight and he will not bet the moneyline, instead looking at under props.

under 1.5 rounds, under 2.5 rounds, fight ends by KO
"I'm going to pick David Oama to get the knockout just because I mean there's no real rhyme or reason to it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
David Onama

The fight is a coin flip; whoever lands the big punch first wins. The host leans slightly to Onama's speed and more tools, thinking he will land a big shot and put Garcia away. But it could easily go the other way, so confidence is low.

inside the distance
"I have to lean ever so slightly to the speed and more tools for the David Onam side. I think it's just a matter of time before he lands that big shot on Garcia and puts him away. ... I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent impressive wins over Melquizael Costa, Kyle Nelson, and Calvin Kattar. He believes Garcia's pressure and volume will break David Onama, who has struggled against similar styles (e.g., Romero). He notes Onama's lack of consistent finishes and potential work ethic issues. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

second or third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia here. I'm glad I remembered that Romero fight of Onama because that was a real worrying look."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Zane picks Garcia because he has seen Onama get hurt badly and fail to focus from the start. He notes that if Garcia can't knock Onama out, it will be a wild war, but he is more willing to believe Onama will never find comfort against Garcia than that Onama can lock Garcia down. He acknowledges the high chaos and randomness in both fighters' careers.

"I think I'm gonna take Garcia just because I have seen Onama get hurt so bad, yeah, and I have seen him not focus on having the right fight from the jump."
WIN vs Calvin Kattar
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 0 26 of 123 21% 26 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Steve Garcia 1 85 of 250 34% 85 of 250 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steve Garcia 0 22 of 71 30% 22 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Calvin Kattar 0 5 of 47 10% 5 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steve Garcia 0 32 of 87 36% 32 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Steve Garcia 1 31 of 92 33% 31 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 26 of 123 21% 21 of 116 3 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 123 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 85 of 250 34% 52 of 208 23 of 29 10 of 13 85 of 249 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 8 of 26 30% 4 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 22 of 71 30% 11 of 53 5 of 10 6 of 8 22 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 5 of 47 10% 5 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 32 of 87 36% 19 of 72 10 of 11 3 of 4 32 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 13 of 50 26% 12 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 31 of 92 33% 22 of 83 8 of 8 1 of 1 31 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-120); Kattar (+100)

Round 1
On a career-long four-fight skid, Kattar (23-9, 7-7 UFC) has not gotten his hand raised since outdueling Giga Chikadze in 2022. Possibly in the later stages of his career at 37 years old, he is being matched up against a dangerous brawler in Garcia (17-5, 6-2 UFC) who is knocking on the door of ludicrous status should he clock “The Boston Finisher.” Referee Jason Herzog understands his assignment, and the fighters do too, as they touch gloves to engage.
The two featherweight strikers measure one another in the early going, with Garcia eventually leading the dance with a looping pair of punches and some awkward kicks to any target he can find. Kattar ducks and swings hard on an overhand right counter that zips right past the Jackson-Wink representative. Garcia is in the driver’s seat but his connect rate remains low a minute in. Garcia wraps a right around the guard, but his left goes wide. Woots, whoops and cries rain down throughout the Bridgestone Arena, and Garcia silences them with a long punch combination and three head kicks in a row. Kattar defends well but stumbles, and he gets back to his feet and takes a left hand on the jaw. Garcia scores with a left hand and kicks after it.
Katter misses with a huge left hand, and Garcia races through it and lands a combination on Kattar’s face. Kattar is stuck not hitting anything of note, while Garcia is scoring to the head, body and legs. Garcia spins with a sudden wheel kick, and Kattar shells up but his nose takes the brunt of it. Kattar steps in with an elbow on the chin after Garcia hits him a few times, and he partially connects with a lead hook. Garcia forces Kattar to constantly defend himself, and his power drives “The Boston Finisher” back a few steps. Kattar starts to put his jab together, and he is answered with a Jackson-Wink-style oblique kick to the knee. One more kick to the lead leg ends the tepid round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Both featherweights trade right hands as the round begins, and Garcia stays in Kattar’s face but walks into a left hand on the jaw. Garcia shrugs it off and bounces around before settling down, planting a one-two on Kattar’s visage. Kattar’s looping punches continue to miss, as he is telegraphing his big right and Garcia is able to dodge or stay away from them. Garcia walks Kattar down, spinning with a clean back kick to the ribs, and he drives home several rib-roasters as well. This fires up Kattar, who cracks the favorite. Garcia gives it right back, happy to be getting the brawl he was seeking. Garcia beats Kattar to the jab time and time again.
Kattar employs a step-in elbow that graces Garcia’s melon, and Garcia gives him back several body shots to think about. Garcia dips and dodges the oncoming fire to crack Kattar with a huge left, smashing Kattar’s nose and forcing Kattar to paw at it. Garcia strikes the body when he sees an opening, and he skips forward to deliver two lefts on the chin. Garcia misses a right and left hook by a matter of inches, and he kicks the front of Kattar’s thigh to back him off. The body work from Garcia is getting Kattar to drop his hands, and he winds up with a bomb of a left that buzzes past the longtime vet. Garcia keeps doing work until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia immediately engages to start the last round, putting hands in Kattar’s face early and often. A heavy left hand drives Kattar back a ways, and he times a head kick and a spinning back fist that Garcia is able to defend. Kattar hops back and forth switching stances, but he does not engage and is just backpedaling when Garcia comes at him. Garcia reaches him with a left hand, and he loads up a subsequent bomb that nearly separates Kattar from his senses. Kattar bounces off the fence to stay afloat, and he clinches Garcia to get his head right. Garcia breaks off and chases the wounded man down, stabbing body kicks and following with liver punches that draw reactions almost every time he connects. Garcia fearlessly walks “The Boston Finisher” down, hurling one-twos and any open strike he can lob. Garcia tries for two clubbing lefts that do not get through, and he parries a front kick and pushes a left hand down the pipe.
Kattar appears to have recovered, but Garcia is not about to let him of the hook and hacks at him with a tomahawk elbow. Garcia kicks Kattar’s leg out, and he lets him back up to swing heavy leather. Kattar bites down on his mouthpiece and walks into a left hand, and he spins with an elbow that bangs square into Garcia’s temple. Garcia, blood now streaking from the bridge of his nose, boots Kattar upside the head and follows him with a left hand. He pushes Kattar back and pops him with a front kick, staying up close and looping lefts. Kattar stands him up with a right hand, and he strikes with a knee and a spinning back fist that both get part of the betting favorite. Garcia tosses windmills, and he waits for Kattar to spin so he can blast him when he plants. Garcia lets loose with a head kick and a spinning wheel kick, and Kattar knocks him back with a fierce overhand right. The two trade last strikes until time expires, and Garcia’s knockout streak has officially ended. Despite that, he still has soundly beaten a legitimate force at featherweight, and has announced himself as a new contender.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia but was initially not confident at higher odds. He notes Calvin Kattar is still a good striker with good takedown defense, but hasn't won in three years and is 37. At even money, he thinks Garcia is a decent play because he's younger and on a knockout streak, but he acknowledges Kattar has never been knocked out.

At even money, thinks Garcia is a decent play.
"Steve Garcia is the pick. I was never going to bet him at a minus 160, but at minus 110, which is unfortunately even money here, I think Steve Garcia could be a decent play."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady is a fan of Steve Garcia but picks Calvin Kattar due to durability. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times, while Kattar has never been knocked out in over 30 fights. He expects a stand-up war and believes Kattar will finish what Charlie Ontiveros started, picking Kattar by first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Calvin Kedar to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Connor picks Kattar despite his losing streak, reasoning that Kattar has fought only elite fighters and has an incredible chin that has never been cracked. He views Steve Garcia as a 'bad fighter' who closes his eyes and swings wildly, and believes Kattar's durability and experience will carry him. Connor admits he is tired of being wrong about Garcia but trusts the pattern of Kattar losing only to top-tier opponents.

"I'm going to pick Calvin Kattar. ... Steve Garcia, I think is a bad fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The host acknowledges recency bias making Garcia a slight favorite, but notes that Kattar has never been finished by knockout (except an injury). He believes this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Kattar to counter Garcia effectively and find a knockout, reminding people of his quality. The pick is based on Kattar's durability and counter-striking.

knockout
"Ton of recency bias here making Garcia a very slight favorite. And yes, he is very dangerous, especially with him coming off a fiveight winning streak with all of those wins coming by knockout. But Kater has never been finished …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent finishes (Chase Hooper, Shalan Nerd Beck) and his pressure style. He criticizes Calvin Kattar's recent performances, noting poor footwork and takedown defense since his leg injury. He expects Garcia to get in Kattar's face immediately, mix in wrestling, and finish him, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if he finds his rhythm late.

finish
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia over Calvin Kater. ... I think he's actually gonna finish Calvin Kater here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Zane picks Garcia, partly to avoid being mocked by a friend named Eddie for always picking against Garcia. He acknowledges that Garcia is a wild, unhinged fighter who frequently gets into trouble but has been winning. Zane notes that Kattar has slowed down and lost venom, and that Garcia's aggressive blitz could overwhelm him, similar to how Arnold Allen attacked Kattar. However, he admits Garcia is not a good technical fighter.

"I'm going to pick Steve Garcia. I'm going to say this is the day that it happens for Calvin Kattar that starting slow..."
WIN vs Kyle Nelson
TKO (elbows and punches) R1 3:59 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 0 22 of 37 59% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:36
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 2 50% 31 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 22 of 37 59% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:36
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 2 50% 31 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 22 of 37 59% 20 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 34
Kyle Nelson 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 22 of 37 59% 20 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 34
Kyle Nelson 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson (148.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-192), Nelson (+160)

Round 1
Garcia (16-5, 5-2 UFC) is hungry, and he wants to share his lunch of knuckle sandwiches as the short-notice substitute against Nelson (16-5-1, 4-4-1 UFC). Both men come into this pairing on win streaks, so someone’s momentum is about to come to a grinding halt. Garcia has notably recorded four straight knockouts, a rarity for the weight class. This bout will officially take place at 149 pounds due to the Canadian missing weight, but that should not preclude the two from slugging it out as expected. Gloves are not touched under the watchful eye of referee Mark Smith, and instead they want to fight. Garcia lets fly a kick and a few punches, and he gets pushed back to the wall and trips. Nelson jumps on top to take Garcia’s back in a hurry, and he gets both hooks in without effort. Garcia hand-fights to prevent Nelson from setting up a submission, so the Canadian smacks him in the forehead several times. Nelson tries to set up the body triangle, but Garcia is able to fight off the first setup while he twists to one side and uses two-on-one wrist control. Garcia explodes to spin around, and he falls into an armbar. Garcia unloads with punches with his free arm, and he strikes his way out of the submission and lets Nelson have it with an onslaught of punches and elbows. Nelson turns to his side and shells up, and he slows Garcia down. Garcia elects to grind his elbow on the cheek, and he thumps it down every so often. Garcia slams down a few punches, and he nails Nelson with an elbow that makes Nelson turn to turtle up. As Garcia unleashes a fury, Nelson keeps his wits about him and kicks off Garcia to force him upright. Garcia leaps down and elbows Nelson in the back of the head, and a lump develops in a hurry. Nelson sits up with his back to the cage, and Garcia rails him with an elbow that makes Nelson crumble to his side. Garcia releases a final flurry of elbows and punches, and Smith sees that Nelson is no longer defending himself and intervenes. Nelson tries to stand back up after the fight has been called off, and Smith is there to make sure he does not fall over. This is a statement performance for the ultraviolent Garcia, who has earned five straight knockouts and pounds his way into contender status.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Kyle Nelson R1 3:59 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he hits very hard, has good wrestling, and is on a four-fight knockout streak. However, he is hesitant because Kyle Nelson has been looking good lately and has power and toughness. He plans to have very little exposure on this fight if he bets.

Angelo says he will bet a very small amount if he bets on Steve Garcia.
"I think Steve Garcia wins but I'm not that confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Big Brady picks Steve Garcia to win by knockout in round one. He highlights Garcia's four-fight knockout streak and his dog mentality, but acknowledges Garcia gets dropped often. Brady thinks Garcia will get dropped but get back up and finish Nelson. He favors Garcia more as the fight goes into later rounds.

round 1 KO
"Steve Garcia wins this fight I take him to Win It by knockout but I think somebody's getting served in this one Garcia round one KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Cody picks Nelson on the moneyline, citing Garcia's poor chin and tendency to get dropped, while Nelson has improved cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Garcia's wins are often against tired or compromised opponents, and that Nelson's pressure and pace can overwhelm Garcia. He sees value at plus money and is confident Nelson can win.

Nelson by decision +1000 (tempting)
"I'm going to go call Nelson money line with the plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Daniel acknowledges Kyle Nelson's improved style but thinks Garcia's kill-or-be-killed pressure will force Nelson to fight, potentially bringing back his old issues. He admits he hasn't been good at predicting the new Kyle Nelson, but he picks Garcia to extend his knockout streak. He notes Garcia is a killer who either knocks you out or gets knocked out.

"I'll pick Steve Garcia here. I think that Steve Garcia is gonna make this guy fight then we're gonna see the old tencies come back from Kyle Nelson and I think that Steve Garcia is gonna extend his kill streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Garcia is on a four-fight KO streak and has awkward angles that could trouble Nelson. Nelson is also on a roll but Garcia's power is a threat. The under 1.5 rounds is the preferred bet, as Garcia tends to finish early. Garcia by first-round KO is the pick.

Under 1.5 rounds; Garcia by first-round KO
"the under one and a half is where I will put my money here... I'm going to go Garcia Garcia by first round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Paul likes the over 1.5 rounds at +140, believing Nelson's improved cardio and fight IQ will avoid an early knockout. He thinks Nelson can make it competitive and potentially win a decision. He is not confident in betting Garcia at nearly -200, so he leans Nelson but prefers the over prop.

over 1.5 rounds +140 (already bet), may take more if number grows
"I like the over one and a half from this fight I know st's been a oneman rcking crew absolutely knocking out everyone he's got P power in his hands but I feel like seven and a half minutes Kyle …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson, citing a bias against Canadian men. He notes Garcia's weird look as an advantage and his training at Jackson Wink and Soul Focus. He mentions Garcia has beaten good opponents like Melquizael Costa and Saimon Oliveira, but was finished by Chase Hooper. He predicts a decision or KO win.

decision or KO
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson... I've got Steve Garcia getting this one done by decision or KO"
WIN vs SeungWoo Choi
TKO (punches) R1 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Seung Woo Choi vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-148), Choi (+124)

Round 1
Finding himself in the unexpected situation of serving as the co-main event after the cancelation of Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park, “Mean Machine” Garcia (15-5, 4-2 UFC) is ready to rise the occasion and lock down his fourth win in a row. The Jackson-Wink fighter will try to hand Choi (11-6, 4-5 UFC) his fourth loss in five fights, and the two featherweights will likely meet in the middle and throw down. When they do, referee Herb Dean will be hanging on tight. There is a touch of gloves, and Garcia is the initial aggressor as he gets into the center of the cage and lands a stomp kick to the knee. Garcia ducks back to avoid two looping hooks, only to race forward and bump into Choi’s forehead to tie him up. Garcia ties up a leg but is unable to put the South Korean down, and when Choi escapes, he throws hands. Garcia welcomes the exchange, and when things settle down, he lands another kick to the knee. Choi chambers and fires a low kick that puts Garcia down to a knee, and Garcia climbs back up and gets swept with another kick. Garcia wades forward, thinks about throwing a front kick and lets it go to stand and bang. Stand and bang is exactly what “Mean Machine” does, rocking Choi and getting clipped in a destructive exchange.
Garcia lands the cleaner of the blows as he continues to slug it out, and he knocks Choi off-balance with a left hand and floors him with another bomb of a left. Choi turns to his side and then knees in an effort to shell up and survive, but Garcia is a man possessed at getting the win. Garcia stings “Sting” repeatedly with hammerfists, raining down a seemingly unending onslaught of fists until Dean has no choice but to stop the fight.
Choi looks up at Dean quizzically as blood streams from his mouth, and Garcia runs to the cage wall to scream and then scales it to shout even louder. This is a big moment for Garcia, who has now picked up four straight knockout victories. The triumphant Garcia calls for an MMA fight against Dan Ige, a popular name lately, while also calling out commentator Daniel Cormier for a golf match.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Seung Woo Choi R1 1:36 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he is sneaky good with five UFC wins all by KO/TKO. He believes Garcia's striking and wrestling are there, and that Choi Seung-woo has been finished before. He has placed a bet on Garcia at -140 and expects the line to move.

bet placed at -140
"Steve Garcia is the pick I got a nice little bet on him at minus 140"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Cody also picks Garcia but with less confidence, noting Garcia's own durability issues and the fact that both fighters have been dropped. He sees the fight as close to 50/50 and suggests taking Choi if plus money is available. He emphasizes the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet, expecting a violent finish.

"I got one guy that's on a three-fight winning streak... I got to get the guy in the three-fight winning streak."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Garcia by knockout, comparing the fight to a coin flip but ultimately choosing Garcia. He notes both fighters have high knockdown rates and can be dropped, but Garcia's size (6'0", 75" reach) and recent form (5 knockdowns in last 3 fights) give him the edge. He expects a stand-up war ending in a Garcia knockout.

by KO
"heads we're gonna go with Steve Garcia here to uh drop Troy a couple times and then all out War"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Garcia is a -140 favorite. He relies on his knockout power and has a three-fight KO streak. Choi is more technical but has been finished before. Garcia can survive early pressure and land a big shot to get the KO. I prefer Garcia by knockout rather than moneyline, as his KO line is around +130.

Garcia by knockout
"I would rather Garcia by knockout rather than Garcia moneyline at minus 140"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Paul likes Garcia's momentum and power, noting his three-fight winning streak with five knockdowns. He questions Choi's durability, pointing out Choi has been knocked down five times in his last three fights. Paul thinks Garcia's power is the difference and expects a knockout, though he acknowledges both have shaky chins.

"I think it's Steve all day here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, noting he has doubted Garcia before but he keeps winning. He highlights Garcia's recent finishes over Malik El Kousa, Shannon Nurnbeck, and Chase Hooper, and his training at Jackson Wink. He points out Choi Seung-woo's questionable chin, getting wobbled in most fights, and believes Garcia's power and size at 145 will be too much.

"I'm gonna go with um Steve Garcia I've doubted Steve Garcia enough"
KO (elbows) R2 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 29 of 49 59% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 6 of 10 60% 20 of 25 2 of 10 20% 0 0 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melquizael Costa 0 5 of 7 71% 19 of 22 2 of 9 22% 0 0 4:41
2 Steve Garcia 1 25 of 38 65% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 29 of 49 59% 26 of 45 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 10 3 of 8 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 6 of 10 60% 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 4 of 11 36% 3 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 5 of 7 71% 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Steve Garcia 25 of 38 65% 23 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 4 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-275), Garcia (+225)

Round 1
The predominant method of victory for these two fighters—now competing at lightweight due to the short-notice nature of their rescheduled pairing—is the knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni should don his hard hat before going out against these two sluggers. “Mean Machine” Garcia (14-5, 3-2 UFC) has performed his last six victories via strikes, while LFA vet Costa (20-6, 1-1 UFC) has earned two of his last three wins by knockout. Before the fists fly, they meet together in a sporting manner. Garcia springs forward, but he pulls back before engaging. On his second advance, Garcia throws caution to the wind, winging big punches. Costa shimmies to the side and allows Garcia to push past him, and he hooks his leg around Garcia’s and tries to drag him down to the floor. Costa elects to lift Garcia up and slam him to the mat, but “Mean Machine” moves back up to his feet quickly. Costa clings to Garcia from behind relentlessly, and Garcia tries to defend with no-look elbows. Costa knees Garcia in the backside and upper thigh as he pressures his man, and Garcia responds with elbows on the thigh. Costa whips Garcia to a knee, and Garcia considers grabbing the fence but at the last second just points at it. Costa forces his man down to a knee again, but Garcia springs up with no ill effects. Costa continues to embrace the grind from behind, shutting down any offense from Garcia and forcing him to spend energy in strange exchanges. When Costa looks to get a hook in, Garcia shucks it off. Costa peppers with knees until scooping Garcia up and dumping him down once more. Garcia powers back upright, and he wiggles and wriggles but cannot escape. Costa trips Garcia out but is unable to keep him grounded for more than a second, and he stays in this position until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Garcia comes out of his corner angrily, and he swings violently and connects with a few of his shots. Costa responds as the two engage in a mad brawl, with punches and elbows flailing in all directions. Garcia wings a left and a right, catching Costa and knocking him down to the canvas. “Mean Machine” follows him to the mat and drives down a vicious elbow, splitting Costa wide open, and Costa is in a bad way. Garcia smashes his man with fists and sharp elbows, and blood sprays around the canvas. Costa turns over and gives up his back, and Garcia snatches up a rear-naked choke. Perhaps due to the blood flow, Costa is able to slide out of the choke and turns to his back.
Garcia postures up, in full mount, and he demolishes “Melky” with three ruthless elbows. Tognoni halts the fight, with Costa out or very nearly out.
When Garcia dismounts his defeated adversary, Costa tries to take Tognoni down, and he is deep in on a single. Tognoni displays excellent takedown defense as officials flood the cage, with one very loud shouting at Costa to wake him back up. Costa realizes that he is trying to take down a referee and that the fight is over, and he surrenders.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Melquizael Costa R2 1:01 via KO (Elbows)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that Costa is a volume puncher and Garcia is a knockout-or-bust fighter. Cody points out that Garcia has poor defense and gets rocked in his wins and losses. He thinks Costa's volume and durability will be key. Cody is suspicious that the line hasn't moved despite Garcia pulling out last week due to illness and moving up a weight class. He still favors Costa.

"I like Costa I'm playing Costa cost going to be high up there but it almost favors a little bit Garcia a little bit better"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that he liked Costa last week and nothing has changed. Paul points out that Garcia has a history of missing weight and was sick last week, but now fights at lightweight without cutting weight. He thinks Garcia's power is a threat but Costa's volume and durability should win out. Paul is not taking Garcia just because of the circumstances.

"him getting sick and pulling out of a fight last week did not cause me to change my pick this week to suddenly take him so no no not taking Steve Garcia gonna stick with M Costa"
KO (body kick and punches) R2 0:36 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 18 of 35 51% 31 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:34
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 17 of 40 42% 50 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 16 of 32 50% 29 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 6 of 23 26% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Steve Garcia 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 18 of 35 51% 15 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 19
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 17 of 40 42% 14 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 35 1 of 1 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 16 of 32 50% 13 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 0 of 0 10 of 19
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 6 of 23 26% 5 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Steve Garcia 2 of 3 66% 2 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 11 of 17 64% 9 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 12 1 of 1 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nuerdanbieke (-200), Garcia (+170)

Round 1
Moving right along, this next fight takes place in the featherweight category. Fresh off some sort of controversy from his last match with Darrick Minner – you can look it up – Shayilan (39-10, 3-1 UFC) wants to move on from that messiness and keep his win streak going. In his 50th professional MMA bout at the tender age of 28, Shayilan battles Garcia (13-5, 2-2 UFC), who has been on the giving and receiving ends of rough knockouts as of late. Before the fists fly, referee Larry Folsom clocks them in, and the fighters do not elect to touch gloves first. Garcia goes after a front kick, but Shayilan is well out of the way. Shayilan intercepts a kick to land a solid one-two, and Garcia pushes off with a front kick that slams into the cup. Folsom sees this and pauses the action immediately. After a little under a minute, Shayilan clears his pain and discomfort and is good to go. They crash together with big punches, and Shayilan backs off to coil back his big right hand. Garcia rushes in, and Shayilan unloads it, blasting Garcia in the face and sending him crumpling to the mat. Shayilan looks to finish the job with a barrage of punches, but Garcia ties him up and holds on to clear his wits. Shayilan postures up to nail Garcia with an elbow, and Garcia scoots his way back to the fencing. Garcia wall-walks to stand back up, and Shayilan drags him back to a knee in short order. Shayilan sneaks around to take the back of “Mean Machine,” and Garcia slides back into the clinch and pushes the Chinese fighter to the wire. Shayilan throws him to the mat and slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself into the guard. Garcia hangs on from on bottom to quell the bludgeoning, and Shayilan methodically opens up every so often to connect with a solid shot. Garcia works his way back up and bursts to his feet, and he has busted Shayilan open with his own strikes. Garcia rushes out, pushing the pace on “Wolverine” and unloading with a few punches. Garcia belts Shayilan in the face, stunning him and forcing Shayilan to shoot for a desperation takedown. Garcia, from his back, kicks a downed Shayilan in the face illegally, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan

Round 2
Garcia is amped up to start off the second round, rushing after the Chinese competitor and throwing bombs. Shayilan ducks down, and Garcia times a perfect kick that smashes Shayilan in the face and relocates his nose. Sensing that his opponent is in big, big trouble, Garcia unleashes a high kick, a right hand and a left that knock Shayilan back to the wall.
Garcia digs a stabbing, toe-first kick to the liver, and he punches the exact same spot, and “Wolverine” crumples to the mat. Any subsequent ground-and-pound is purely academic, and “Mean Machine” hammers the nail with a couple follow-up punches.
This is a mighty comeback for Garcia, who got cracked at the beginning of the fight and recovered to come on strong and pull off the solid stoppage.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan R2 0:36 via KO (Body Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Angelo picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke but is hesitant to bet because of his low volume output. He notes that Shayilan is a powerful grappler with a bully style, but Steve Garcia is a high-volume striker who could steal rounds if Shayilan doesn't push the pace early. He is waiting for significant strike prop bets to drop, as he believes Steve Garcia will land more significant strikes even if Shayilan wins.

significant strikes prop (Steve Garcia to land more)
"I think shylon wins this fight the problem is the only thing that's preventing me from betting the hell out of shylon is he's a low volume guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Big Brady picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke due to his wrestling advantage and durability concerns with Steve Garcia. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times in recent fights, questioning his chin. He believes Nuerdanbieke can mix takedowns and control the fight, potentially winning by decision or even knocking out Garcia. He predicts a decision win for Nuerdanbieke.

"I'll say Charlie on by decision I'll say he does mixing the takedowns it's what he does best"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Cody also picks Garcia, agreeing with Paul's reasoning. He notes Garcia's improvements and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's wrestling may not be enough to control Garcia. Cody mentions that Garcia has never been taken down in the UFC. He is cautious but sees value at +155. He says he took a shot on Garcia but warns it's a risky bet.

"at plus 155 Steve will be the pick for me as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nuerdanbieke. He notes that Garcia is fun and dangerous but his path to win leads him into his opponent's offense.

"I'm fine with the odds getting a little closer. Like I, I have always said Garcia is a better fighter than his record shows..."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Jacob is confident in Shayilan, noting that he trusts his chin more and believes he has the wrestling to slow down Steve Garcia's pressure. He thinks Garcia will come out aggressively, but Shayilan can counter him or take him down. He mentions that Garcia gets dropped often, so Shayilan has a good chance of a knockout. However, he wouldn't bet it because Garcia is a dangerous opponent who risks it all.

"I trust shylon's chin uh more and he's got the wrestling in this back pocket to kind of slow everything down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Nuerdanbieke uses his stocky frame to grind opponents with takedowns and top pressure, but his striking is wild and he slows down. Garcia has knockout power and unorthodox angles, but his consistency is questionable. I'm skeptical but think the grappling-heavy fighter is the smarter pick, though I have low confidence due to Garcia's power and unknowns.

"I am going to pick that as my prediction though as I think that usually it's smarter to go with the Garoppolo heavy fighter but there are so many question marks on the Steve Garcia side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Paul picks Garcia but with very low confidence. He notes Garcia's tendency to run into punches and get dropped, but believes Nuerdanbieke is not a power puncher and relies on wrestling. Paul argues that Garcia has good takedown defense and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's low striking output could lead to a decision loss if he can't hold Garcia down. He also mentions the Florida crowd may favor Garcia's aggression. He calls it a 'fool pick of the week' and warns not to bet much.

"I will take Steve Garcia and it may be the PRP pick all the way at the bottom zero confidence in this fight whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Nuerdanbieke to get a takedown in the first round, control the grappling, and mix in strikes. He thinks Garcia will have some success on the feet in the third round but not enough to overcome the earlier rounds. The prediction is detailed with round-by-round scenarios.

"I'm gonna go with by 29-28 decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Zane picks Nuerdanbieke because Garcia has terrible wrestling defense and Nuerdanbieke is persistent and strong. He notes that Nuerdanbieke will work hard and take Garcia down, which is too much of a hole for Garcia to overcome.

"I got to pick him. He's very persistent and he's super strong too, which sets up for a lot of his technical shortcomings."
WIN vs Chase Hooper
TKO (punches) R1 1:32 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 3 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 3 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 10 of 30 33% 7 of 25 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 29 of 44 65% 19 of 33 7 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 10 of 30 33% 7 of 25 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 29 of 44 65% 19 of 33 7 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. Chase Hooper

Round 1
The quintessential “striker vs. grappler” label certainly applies to this next pairing at 145 pounds, when the submission-minded Hooper (11-2-1, 3-2 UFC) comes to blows with “Mean Machine” Garcia (12-5, 1-2 UFC). The third man in the cage for this fight that could end suddenly is referee Herb Dean, and he prepares himself should he need to step in. The fighters touch gloves, and Hooper is immediately the aggressor. He walks into a few punches from Garcia, and Hooper is stung in a hurry. Garcia follows a combination with a knee, and Hooper shakes it off and backs off. Garcia sets him down with a left hand, and he does not follow him down. When Hooper stands back up, “Mean Machine” blasts him with another left hand, and Hooper hits the mat for the third time in under a minute. The youngster Hooper keeps his wits about him and works his way back up, and Garcia is not about to let him off the hook. Hooper flails and spins with a back fist, but the power of Garcia is vastly more significant.
The Jackson-Wink fighter chains together a right to the body and a left to the head, and “The Dream” becomes a nightmare as he crumples to the mat from a thudding left hand. While he might still be able to keep going, Dean recognizes that the last knockdown was a bad one as Hooper’s face is busted and swelling fast. The onslaught has ripped open Hooper's left eyebrow to leak blood in the young man's eye, and it does not take more than a few mean hammerfists from “Mean Machine” to prompt Dean’s intervention.
This was largely one-way traffic for Garcia, who registered an instant contender for “Beatdown of the Year” by demolishing the 23-year-old in a hair over 90 seconds.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Chase Hooper R1 1:32 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He highlights Hooper's improved wrestling and striking, and his dangerous ground game, noting that Hooper finished the tough Felipe Colares in his last fight. He contrasts Garcia's sketchy chin and poor grappling defense, referencing Garcia's fight against Luis Pena where he was controlled for 14 minutes. Brady believes Hooper will get the fight to the mat and finish Garcia.

Hooper wins by second-round TKO
"I like Cooper to win this fight inside the distance I'll say like a second round like a TKO for Chase super"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Cody picks Chase Hooper, noting his improvements in wrestling and striking, and his physical maturity. He criticizes Steve Garcia's poor chin, striking defense, and lack of X-factor. Cody expects Hooper to take Garcia down, backpack him with a body triangle, and finish with ground and pound. He likes Hooper by knockout at +475.

Hooper by knockout at +475
"Chase by knockout plus 475 that's what I'm in on this one I think Chase Hooper's got a good chance to go out there to take this fight to the ground dominate the exact same way and just pile up …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Connor picks Hooper confidently, highlighting his improved understanding of MMA grappling and his aggressive ground and pound. He notes that Garcia's game is built on getting to the pocket and taking people down, which will give Hooper opportunities to wrap him up and do damage. Connor compares it to Garcia's fight against Luis Pena, but with more damage coming back.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"This will be that pain you fight, but with a lot more damage coming back."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Daniel Levi picks Chase Hooper, citing his heart, improvement, and grappling skills. He notes Garcia's weight issues and recent KO losses. He references the Luis Pena fight where Pena backpacked Garcia, giving confidence in Hooper's grappling. He is not interested in laying -260.

"I'm gonna go with Chase super here I'm just not in any kind of Rush delay a price like minus 250 on him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Jacob is very confident in Chase Hooper, citing his improved striking, toughness, and elite grappling. He notes Steve Garcia gets dropped often and has chin issues, and if Garcia wrestles, that plays into Hooper's strengths. Jacob sees a potential TKO or submission for Hooper.

inside the distance for Chase Hooper
"my official pick is Chase Hooper I love him in this matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Hooper is a jiu-jitsu ace but his striking is still developing. Garcia has power but poor takedown defense and can be controlled against the cage. Hooper should be able to take Garcia down and work for a submission, similar to Luis Pena's performance. However, the heavy chalk on Hooper is concerning given his past struggles. The submission prop at +250 is appealing.

Hooper by submission +250
"I still get a little queasy thinking about taking Chase super at this type of chalk but this still seems like a spot he should go out there control the majority of the fight until he can eventually lock up …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Paul picks Chase Hooper but is hesitant to bet at -300. He notes Hooper's youth and development, but is concerned about his wrestling and stand-up still being works in progress. Paul says he will pick Hooper for the show but may not bet him.

"I'm gonna pick them for the purposes of this show but I don't know how I really get there from a betting perspective"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper over Steve Garcia, impressed by Hooper's last performance where he gassed out and finished Felipe Colares. He notes Hooper's grappling pace and ability to drown opponents on the ground. He believes Garcia, coming off a brutal KO loss, will struggle with Hooper's pressure and that Hooper will win by 29-28 decision, losing the first but winning the last two rounds.

"I'm going with Chase Hooper here I've doubted him at times in his career but I must admit... after his last performance it was so impressive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Zane picks Hooper confidently, noting his huge improvements in striking and grappling aggression. He describes Hooper as a super technical grappler who now uses ground and pound effectively. Zane argues that Garcia's style of pushing into the pocket and clinching plays directly into Hooper's strengths, and that Garcia is not a great athlete, making him vulnerable to Hooper's submissions and control.

Hooper opened -185 now -267, Garcia opened +159 now +214.
"Chase Hooper is going to make that really apparent."
SeungWoo Choi - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Vallejos
KO R1 3:09 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
SeungWoo Choi 0 16 of 44 36% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 14 of 27 51% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 SeungWoo Choi 0 16 of 44 36% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 14 of 27 51% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
SeungWoo Choi 16 of 44 36% 4 of 20 1 of 8 11 of 16 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 14 of 27 51% 4 of 12 3 of 6 7 of 9 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 SeungWoo Choi 16 of 44 36% 4 of 20 1 of 8 11 of 16 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 14 of 27 51% 4 of 12 3 of 6 7 of 9 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo picks Kevin Vallejos over Choi Seung-woo. He is very confident in Vallejos, citing his power, speed, and the fact that Choi has been knocked out recently. He notes that UFC debuts can be nerve-wracking but believes Vallejos is the real deal. He expects the odds to move further in Vallejos' favor.

"I love Kevin in this matchup and even with the grappling I am very confident in him here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos, calling Choi Seung-woo very hittable and chinny. He notes that Choi has been knocked down or finished by lesser strikers like Michael Trizano and Josh Culibao, and that his style of standing and banging when hurt will backfire against Vallejos. Brady expects Vallejos to land a brutal first-round knockout, predicting he 'pipes up' Choi on sight.

Vallejos first round KO
"give me Kevin vallejos to win this fight by a brutal brutal first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his speed, movement, and ability to finish. He notes that Eric Anders has been knocked down in his last three fights and is 38 years old. He believes Duncan can land a knockout, possibly in the first round, and considers the KO prop at plus 200.

KO prop at +200
"CLD by knockout. That may make my card this week to be perfectly honest. Um plus 200 when you've got like a minus 600 favorite."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor agrees, noting that Vallejos is a much more natural puncher inside and that Choi will relegate himself to brawling. He compares Vallejos to Jack Della Maddalena without a jab, but still fearsome. He also mentions that Vallejos looks for ways in off his opponent's offense and is a damn good combination puncher once he gets you out of position.

"I'm going to take Vallejos."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host believes this is a horrible matchup for Choi, who may have an output advantage but will eventually be caught by Vallejos crashing the pocket with big shots that put him clean out.

knockout
"I believe this is a horrible matchup for Troy he might have the output Advantage here against valos but I think it's just a matter of time before valos is able to crash the Pocket land those big shots on …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Duncan, noting that Anders is a low-volume fighter who has been dropped early in recent fights. He believes Duncan's speed and athleticism will be too much, and he expects a finish. He is considering the KO prop as well.

"I think he's improving. They've not given him the easiest run. Anders isn't the easiest fight, but you should be able to just use that speed, that movement, keep him off of you, outpoint him at the very least."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The MMA Guru is very high on Kevin Vallejos, calling him the 'people's Main Event' and a real deal prospect. He praises his striking, head movement, and defensive responsibility, noting he took Jean Silva to a decision on the Contender Series at age 21. He criticizes Choi Seung-woo's bad chin and knockout losses, including to Mike Trizano. He predicts Vallejos will get a TKO finish in the second round, possibly late first, and believes he will go far in the division.

Second round TKO (maybe late first)
"I'm going with Kevin valos this is the people's Main Event okay you might not know it yet but you will after this Kevin vallejos is the real [ __ ] deal"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos because he believes Vallejos has a good chin (going three rounds with John Silva) and that Choi will eventually brawl, which favors Vallejos' natural pocket punching. He notes that Vallejos is a good combination puncher with defense, and that Choi cannot fight from distance forever. He acknowledges the competition level concern but thinks Vallejos has the tools.

Odds: Vallejos opened -384, now -636; Choi opened +248, now +424. Zane says the line is too wide but Vallejos deserves to be a favorite.
"I think I'm going to pick Vallejos, not just because he's a witch."
LOSS vs Steve Garcia
TKO (punches) R1 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Seung Woo Choi vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-148), Choi (+124)

Round 1
Finding himself in the unexpected situation of serving as the co-main event after the cancelation of Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park, “Mean Machine” Garcia (15-5, 4-2 UFC) is ready to rise the occasion and lock down his fourth win in a row. The Jackson-Wink fighter will try to hand Choi (11-6, 4-5 UFC) his fourth loss in five fights, and the two featherweights will likely meet in the middle and throw down. When they do, referee Herb Dean will be hanging on tight. There is a touch of gloves, and Garcia is the initial aggressor as he gets into the center of the cage and lands a stomp kick to the knee. Garcia ducks back to avoid two looping hooks, only to race forward and bump into Choi’s forehead to tie him up. Garcia ties up a leg but is unable to put the South Korean down, and when Choi escapes, he throws hands. Garcia welcomes the exchange, and when things settle down, he lands another kick to the knee. Choi chambers and fires a low kick that puts Garcia down to a knee, and Garcia climbs back up and gets swept with another kick. Garcia wades forward, thinks about throwing a front kick and lets it go to stand and bang. Stand and bang is exactly what “Mean Machine” does, rocking Choi and getting clipped in a destructive exchange.
Garcia lands the cleaner of the blows as he continues to slug it out, and he knocks Choi off-balance with a left hand and floors him with another bomb of a left. Choi turns to his side and then knees in an effort to shell up and survive, but Garcia is a man possessed at getting the win. Garcia stings “Sting” repeatedly with hammerfists, raining down a seemingly unending onslaught of fists until Dean has no choice but to stop the fight.
Choi looks up at Dean quizzically as blood streams from his mouth, and Garcia runs to the cage wall to scream and then scales it to shout even louder. This is a big moment for Garcia, who has now picked up four straight knockout victories. The triumphant Garcia calls for an MMA fight against Dan Ige, a popular name lately, while also calling out commentator Daniel Cormier for a golf match.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Seung Woo Choi R1 1:36 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he is sneaky good with five UFC wins all by KO/TKO. He believes Garcia's striking and wrestling are there, and that Choi Seung-woo has been finished before. He has placed a bet on Garcia at -140 and expects the line to move.

bet placed at -140
"Steve Garcia is the pick I got a nice little bet on him at minus 140"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Cody also picks Garcia but with less confidence, noting Garcia's own durability issues and the fact that both fighters have been dropped. He sees the fight as close to 50/50 and suggests taking Choi if plus money is available. He emphasizes the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet, expecting a violent finish.

"I got one guy that's on a three-fight winning streak... I got to get the guy in the three-fight winning streak."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Garcia by knockout, comparing the fight to a coin flip but ultimately choosing Garcia. He notes both fighters have high knockdown rates and can be dropped, but Garcia's size (6'0", 75" reach) and recent form (5 knockdowns in last 3 fights) give him the edge. He expects a stand-up war ending in a Garcia knockout.

by KO
"heads we're gonna go with Steve Garcia here to uh drop Troy a couple times and then all out War"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Garcia is a -140 favorite. He relies on his knockout power and has a three-fight KO streak. Choi is more technical but has been finished before. Garcia can survive early pressure and land a big shot to get the KO. I prefer Garcia by knockout rather than moneyline, as his KO line is around +130.

Garcia by knockout
"I would rather Garcia by knockout rather than Garcia moneyline at minus 140"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Paul likes Garcia's momentum and power, noting his three-fight winning streak with five knockdowns. He questions Choi's durability, pointing out Choi has been knocked down five times in his last three fights. Paul thinks Garcia's power is the difference and expects a knockout, though he acknowledges both have shaky chins.

"I think it's Steve all day here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, noting he has doubted Garcia before but he keeps winning. He highlights Garcia's recent finishes over Malik El Kousa, Shannon Nurnbeck, and Chase Hooper, and his training at Jackson Wink. He points out Choi Seung-woo's questionable chin, getting wobbled in most fights, and believes Garcia's power and size at 145 will be too much.

"I'm gonna go with um Steve Garcia I've doubted Steve Garcia enough"
WIN vs Jarno Errens
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
SeungWoo Choi 1 56 of 115 48% 108 of 179 1 of 1 100% 0 0 5:21
Jarno Errens 1 30 of 76 39% 40 of 88 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 SeungWoo Choi 0 26 of 52 50% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Jarno Errens 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
2 SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 19 47% 28 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:34
Jarno Errens 1 4 of 8 50% 14 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
3 SeungWoo Choi 1 21 of 44 47% 51 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:52
Jarno Errens 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
SeungWoo Choi 56 of 115 48% 22 of 69 8 of 15 26 of 31 51 of 107 2 of 3 3 of 5
Jarno Errens 30 of 76 39% 13 of 47 6 of 14 11 of 15 30 of 73 0 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 SeungWoo Choi 26 of 52 50% 10 of 32 4 of 6 12 of 14 24 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jarno Errens 18 of 41 43% 9 of 25 3 of 6 6 of 10 18 of 39 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 SeungWoo Choi 9 of 19 47% 5 of 13 1 of 2 3 of 4 6 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 5
Jarno Errens 4 of 8 50% 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 SeungWoo Choi 21 of 44 47% 7 of 24 3 of 7 11 of 13 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jarno Errens 8 of 27 29% 2 of 16 3 of 8 3 of 3 8 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Angelo acknowledges Choi's three-fight losing streak and recent TKO loss, but notes that his losses came against solid competition. He highlights Choi's technical striking, leg kicks, and takedown setups. Despite the losing streak, he believes Choi is the better fighter and picks him, but with no bet due to the streak.

"sengu Choi is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady acknowledges Choi Seung-woo's three-fight skid but believes he is much better than his record indicates, with good striking and power. He thinks Choi has improved his takedown defense enough to keep the fight standing. He is not a fan of Jarno Errens, citing a lackluster debut and disadvantages in volume and power. He expects Choi to outpoint Errens over 15 minutes.

decision
"give me a song with Troy to win this fight I'll take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jarno Errens

Cody picks Errens as an underdog, noting his Dutch kickboxing style and volume. He thinks Choi's chin is deteriorating and Errens can outwork him. Cody likes the plus money value.

"the plus money is right to me I'd be willing to take a flight on the underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel leans Choi Seung-woo, noting that he is the more skilled mixed martial artist. He mentions that Choi has a habit of dropping his right hand and getting countered with left hooks, and his chin may be damaged. He acknowledges that Errens has a good submission game and takedown defense issues. He is not confident and advises staying away from this fight.

"I'm gonna lean with Troy but it's it's not a confident pick and you know unless someone has a strong read I'd advise most likely staying away from this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Jarno Errens

James leans towards Jarno Errens as an underdog, citing Choi's poor durability and defensive technique after being dropped multiple times in recent fights. He believes the fight will be a 15-minute striking affair and trusts Errens' durability and technical striking over Choi's power. He notes the line has moved but originally Errens was at +180, which he sees as value.

"I'm gonna lean to the general Erin side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jarno Errens

The host notes that Choi Seung-woo is on a 0-3 slump, has been finished in two of those fights, and his durability is declining. He highlights Choi's poor striking defense and vulnerability to grappling. Jarno Errens has a judo background and decent power, and the host believes his power and grappling advantage will allow him to pull off the upset. The host mentions that Errens' odds have moved from +210 to +140/+150, indicating public support.

"I think his big Power and grappling advantage in this matchup will allow him to string the upset against the Korean fighter here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jarno Errens

Paul picks Errens, noting Choi's low volume and defensive issues. He expects Errens to pressure and land more strikes. Paul is not confident but likes the underdog value.

"I'll side with the underdog at plus 135 here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru picks Choi Seung-woo over Jarno Errens, citing Errens' lack of skill and poor performance against William Gomez. He notes Choi's mixed results but highlights his experience at a high level, takedown defense, and composure. He believes Choi's striking and clinch strength will be decisive, predicting a TKO finish.

TKO finish predicted
"I'm gonna have to go with the composure of sun Wu Choi I think he's got more experience at a high level as well more experience at a ubfc level especially"
LOSS vs Michael Trizano
KO (punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Trizano 2 32 of 53 60% 34 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
SeungWoo Choi 1 26 of 73 35% 26 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Trizano 2 32 of 53 60% 34 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
SeungWoo Choi 1 26 of 73 35% 26 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Trizano 32 of 53 60% 28 of 49 2 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 40 1 of 1 10 of 12
SeungWoo Choi 26 of 73 35% 19 of 61 3 of 7 4 of 5 25 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Trizano 32 of 53 60% 28 of 49 2 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 40 1 of 1 10 of 12
SeungWoo Choi 26 of 73 35% 19 of 61 3 of 7 4 of 5 25 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Angelo sees this as a close firefight between two forward-pressure strikers. He thinks Trizano may be more technical, but Choi is more well-rounded, has higher volume, and is more durable. He notes that Choi's losses were close and he showed durability. He is not sure about betting because the odds are close, but he leans Choi to win.

significant strikes props on BetOnline
"I like Troy to win but I mean it's likely going to be a fire fight so I think it's closer than the odds are telling you"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady picks SeungWoo Choi to win by decision. He believes Choi is the better striker with more power, and that Trizano doesn't wrestle (only 1-2 takedowns in UFC). He notes Choi has struggled with grapplers but Trizano won't take him down. He criticizes Trizano's recent performances, being outlanded by Lucas Almeida and Chidi Njokuani. He expects a striking match where Choi's power and volume earn him a decision.

Choi by decision
"give me Troy to win enjoy to win this one by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Cody picks Choi, arguing that Trizano looks washed and disinterested, with poor striking defense and low volume. He notes that Choi is long, rangy, and versatile with his Muay Thai, and that Trizano has been getting hit and knocked down recently. Cody believes Choi will pick Trizano apart from distance and win by decision or TKO.

"I'm taking Troy one of us is going to be right unfortunately and none of us is going to be wrong."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Connor picks Choi, noting that Trizano's low output and discomfort in exchanges play into Choi's strengths as a sharp counter puncher. He points out that Choi is dangerous at range and Trizano struggles to force the kind of messy fight that would make Choi uncomfortable. Connor also mentions that Trizano's recent improvements in aggression are not natural, and he still looks uncomfortable in exchanges.

"I think I'm taking Sun Wuchoi as bad as he looked against Kula Bell..."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi, believing he will land the bigger shots and potentially knock out Trizano. He notes that Trizano has a low-volume point-fighting style and may be on a losing streak, while Choi has faced tougher competition and shown resilience. Levi thinks Choi's power and experience will be too much for Trizano, who has confidence issues after recent losses.

"I'm going with song with Choi to get back on track here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The host sees Choi as the slicker striker with better range and combinations. He notes Trizano struggles when at a striking disadvantage, as seen in losses to L'Empereur and Almeida. Choi's size and reach should allow him to touch Trizano from the outside and win a decision. The host also likes the over 2.5 rounds if the price is right, expecting a kickboxing match without a finish.

over 2.5 rounds (if even money or plus money)
"I do lean the choice side though I do think it's slightly closer than the odds indicate but I still think that Troy ends up getting his hand raise"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Trizano

Paul leans towards Trizano, noting that Choi's volume is low and that Trizano could mix in takedowns. He acknowledges that Trizano has looked bad recently but thinks the fight is close and that Trizano's wrestling could be the difference. Paul is not confident and calls it a stay-away fight.

"I'll ever so slightly lean towards trizano I wish he had more of a wrestling game than he does."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru confidently picks SeungWoo Choi, reasoning that Trizano lacks takedown ability and Choi has great takedown defense. He criticizes Trizano's basic, goofy striking and notes that Choi has dealt with unorthodox fighters before. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Choi.

"I'm going with seongwoo choya only because Mike trizano doesn't really be he hasn't really shown an ability to get people to the ground"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Zane picks Choi, agreeing that Trizano's low output and lack of comfort in exchanges make him vulnerable. He notes that Choi is sharp and dangerous in the first layer of striking, where Trizano tends to get stuck. Zane also points out that Trizano's jab and low kicks may have success, but he won't be able to make Choi uncomfortable enough to win.

"I can't trust Trisano to fight that fight."
LOSS vs Josh Culibao
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Culibao 0 46 of 163 28% 64 of 184 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:30
SeungWoo Choi 2 51 of 111 45% 69 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Culibao 0 17 of 62 27% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
SeungWoo Choi 1 23 of 47 48% 35 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
2 Josh Culibao 0 16 of 59 27% 16 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
SeungWoo Choi 1 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Josh Culibao 0 13 of 42 30% 30 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 21 42% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Culibao 46 of 163 28% 29 of 137 6 of 14 11 of 12 39 of 147 4 of 10 3 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 51 of 111 45% 40 of 97 7 of 9 4 of 5 40 of 95 6 of 8 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Culibao 17 of 62 27% 13 of 56 1 of 3 3 of 3 15 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 23 of 47 48% 20 of 42 3 of 4 0 of 1 17 of 36 2 of 4 4 of 7
2 Josh Culibao 16 of 59 27% 10 of 50 2 of 4 4 of 5 15 of 56 1 of 3 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 19 of 43 44% 16 of 39 1 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Josh Culibao 13 of 42 30% 6 of 31 3 of 7 4 of 4 9 of 33 1 of 3 3 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 21 42% 4 of 16 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Angelo picks Choi, expecting him to keep the fight technical and avoid a brawl. He notes Culibao is tough and has power but is willing to fight dirty, which could be dangerous. However, he believes Choi's technical striking and ability to mix in takedowns will secure a decision win.

"i like joining this fight i think he can keep it technical avoid that phone booth brawl and cruise to a solid striking showcase win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady picks SeungWoo Choi to win by decision. He notes that Choi is a very good Muay Thai striker with power, while Culibao has zero takedown accuracy in the UFC and is unlikely to take Choi down. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Choi has the advantage.

"I got to favor SeungWoo Choi here I think he's the better striker so yeah pretty simple fight to break down for me pretty straightforward pick here give me SeungWoo Choi to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Cody picks Choi, citing his length, Muay Thai background, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Choi's striking will be too much for Culibao, who is shorter and less technical. He expects Choi to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i think this is a good spot for him to jump back on track"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his physicality, knockout power, and technical striking. He is not fully convinced about Josh Culibao's ceiling and sees Choi as the better athlete. He notes that Culibao's best chance is to win competitive striking exchanges, but Choi's advantages should prevail. He is not betting the fight.

"my pick is gonna be song and also the size difference here I'm very curious to see how apparent that is"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Choi is the better striker with range and power. Culibao wants to brawl, but Choi can stay on the outside and pick him apart. Culibao's chin is granite, so a decision is likely. Choi is a solid parlay piece. I think Choi wins by decision.

Choi by decision (+175)
"I think troy is the better fighter better striker and if culibao's chin wasn't made of granite i think he'd be able to knock him out here but i think he's going to style on him for the majority of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Choi's length and striking advantage. He thinks Culibao's takedowns won't be effective and that Choi will control the distance. He sees Choi as the rightful favorite.

"choi is the rightful favor minus 235 seems like a high price to be paying"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru picks SeungWoo Choi by 29-28 decision, but warns not to sleep on Josh Culibao. He acknowledges Culibao's skills and close fight with Jordan, but believes Choi's superior stand-up, reach advantage, and Muay Thai credentials will give him the edge. He expects Choi to win the first two rounds clearly, with Culibao possibly taking the third due to volume. He rates Choi's chances at 6.5-7 out of 10, not higher.

"i'm gonna go sung wu choy but do not sleep on joshua calibal"
LOSS vs Alex Caceres
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:31 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Caceres 0 46 of 64 71% 54 of 72 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:49
SeungWoo Choi 1 33 of 98 33% 38 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Caceres 0 29 of 39 74% 29 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
SeungWoo Choi 1 19 of 65 29% 22 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
2 Alex Caceres 0 17 of 25 68% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:49
SeungWoo Choi 0 14 of 33 42% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Caceres 46 of 64 71% 22 of 33 13 of 17 11 of 14 37 of 54 9 of 10 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 33 of 98 33% 18 of 78 11 of 16 4 of 4 26 of 85 3 of 3 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Caceres 29 of 39 74% 12 of 18 9 of 12 8 of 9 26 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 19 of 65 29% 13 of 56 2 of 5 4 of 4 15 of 55 0 of 0 4 of 10
2 Alex Caceres 17 of 25 68% 10 of 15 4 of 5 3 of 5 11 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 14 of 33 42% 5 of 22 9 of 11 0 of 0 11 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Angelo thinks Choi is the more technical striker with better takedown entries, and should win the fight. However, he loves the value on Caceres as a +200 underdog and already grabbed a +3.5 bet on him at -115, meaning Caceres only needs to win one round. He thinks Caceres is tough enough to not get finished and can steal a round. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight.

grabbed a +3.5 bet on Caceres at -115; likes more/more on monkey knife fight; won't spend 9200 on Choi in DraftKings
"i am loving the value at an at a two to one underdog alice casera so i already grabbed a plus three and a half bet on him at minus 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady picks Choi as the younger, improving fighter who lands harder shots. He notes Caceres is durable but expects Choi to win a clear decision, though he warns that betting a -300 favorite to decision is risky due to poor judging. He sees Choi's takedown defense as a potential issue but believes he's worked on it.

"i think troy gets it done again landing the harder shots"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Cody is confident in Seung Woo Choi, citing his size, reach, and striking acumen. He notes that Choi is a former Korean Muay Thai champion and has improved his takedown defense. Cody contrasts Choi's recent wins against solid competition with Alex Caceres's wins over lower-level opponents. He points out that Caceres has not scored a clean knockout since 2010 and lacks the wrestling to take Choi down. Cody believes Choi will out-strike Caceres and potentially finish him.

Top ticket material; parlay piece
"sue wong choi looks like he'll probably be top ticket material this week i just really like how he matches up with one bruce lee caceres"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Lock picks Choi based on power and striking. He thinks Choi's power will be the difference and that Caceres will be outmatched on the feet. He expects Choi to win by decision, noting Caceres is experienced but may be on the decline.

Choi by decision +100
"i like troy i like troy decision which i currently think is sitting around plus 100"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Caceres is not used to facing opponents with reach and height advantages. He highlights Choi's cleaner, harder strikes and Caceres's lack of takedown threat. Paul mentions that Caceres's recent wins are over fighters who are no longer in the UFC or are fringe roster members. He believes Choi's size and striking will be too much for Caceres.

"going through alex caceres's last 10 fights which brings you back to 2016. he's landed three takedowns fact so he's throwing the harder cleaner more technical strikes it's gonna be choi"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his Muay Thai skills, reach, and physical advantages. He questions Alex Caceres' level of competition and believes Choi will out-strike him, particularly with leg kicks, winning by decision.

"i'm going to go have seong wu choi here i think it's a logical prediction to make"
WIN vs Julian Erosa
TKO (punches) R1 1:37 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
SeungWoo Choi 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 13 of 29 44% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 SeungWoo Choi 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 13 of 29 44% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
SeungWoo Choi 10 of 20 50% 5 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 13 of 29 44% 10 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 22 0 of 0 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 SeungWoo Choi 10 of 20 50% 5 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 13 of 29 44% 10 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 22 0 of 0 6 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo picks Julian Erosa, noting his violence, aggression, and multiple ways to win (KO or submission). He acknowledges Erosa relies on his chin but thinks he has more paths to victory than Choi, who can only win by KO. He has a bet on the fight going under 2.5 rounds at +125 and also bet on it not going the distance at +105.

under 2.5 rounds (+125, half unit); does not go the distance (+105)
"julian rosa is my pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady thinks Choi is the much better striker and that Erosa is very hittable with a weak chin. He expects a knockout, predicting Choi finishes Erosa in the second round. He considered betting but decided to pass.

win by KO in round 2
"I'm going to take sangwoo choi to knock out juliana rosa"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Cody picks Choi, citing Choi's physical strength, excellent jab, and durability. He acknowledges Erosa's pressure and volume but believes Choi's jab and ability to stay on the outside will carry him to a competitive decision win. He notes Choi's fatigue in the third round of his last fight but thinks Erosa's pressure could be neutralized.

"i myself see my uh myself going with seongwoo choi again i think that he's physically stronger than woodson uh he's got a better chin than nate lanware"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his physicality, size, and technical striking. He notes that Choi has been improving and is now more comfortable in the UFC, while Erosa has a tendency to fight with his hands down and has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Choi's technique and strength will be too much for Erosa, and expects a dominant performance.

"i'm going to go with sung wu choi to get the biggest uh biggest win of his career and also have the best performance of his career"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Jacob picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his speed and precise in-and-out striking. He believes Choi can stuff takedowns and keep the distance, avoiding Erosa's dirty boxing and submissions. He also mentions a pattern where Erosa alternates wins and losses, predicting a loss here. He has Choi in his lineup.

"sing woo choy is gonna win and he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The host picks SeungWoo Choi, believing his Muay Thai and technical striking will overcome Julian Erosa's wild, loopy shots. He notes Choi's improving takedown defense and that Erosa's brawling style plays into Choi's counters. He expects Choi to keep the fight standing and outpoint Erosa over 15 minutes, possibly earning a decision. He mentions Choi's win over Youssef Zalal as evidence of his growth, and that Erosa's wrestling is not better than Gavin Tucker's, which Choi handled.

Choi by decision at +190 mentioned as a good line
"i'm gonna take troy to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa by KO as a YOLO play, noting Erosa's recent knockout wins and Choi's history of being knocked out. He also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He acknowledges the risk but likes Erosa's pressure and volume.

Erosa by KO +700; under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'm on the under two and a half plus 120 and i'm on uh juicy j by ko plus 700 tell me i'm wrong"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa to win by submission (d'arce choke) in round three. He expects Choi to land good shots early, but Erosa will make it messy in round two, forcing clinches and takedowns. In round three, Erosa will lure Choi into a war, Choi will lose composure and shoot a bad takedown, allowing Erosa to latch on a d'arce choke.

submission win, third round, d'arce choke
"i'm going to go with julian arosa darsh choke submission in round three"
WIN vs Youssef Zalal
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
SeungWoo Choi 0 41 of 109 37% 73 of 144 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:39
Youssef Zalal 0 23 of 47 48% 46 of 70 3 of 9 33% 1 1 4:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 SeungWoo Choi 0 13 of 54 24% 26 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Youssef Zalal 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:33
2 SeungWoo Choi 0 19 of 37 51% 34 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Youssef Zalal 0 6 of 14 42% 14 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:52
3 SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 18 50% 13 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:20
Youssef Zalal 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 17 3 of 5 60% 1 1 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
SeungWoo Choi 41 of 109 37% 25 of 84 10 of 13 6 of 12 26 of 93 12 of 13 3 of 3
Youssef Zalal 23 of 47 48% 12 of 34 9 of 10 2 of 3 21 of 44 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 SeungWoo Choi 13 of 54 24% 7 of 42 4 of 6 2 of 6 9 of 50 4 of 4 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 12 of 24 50% 5 of 16 6 of 6 1 of 2 12 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 SeungWoo Choi 19 of 37 51% 14 of 31 3 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 1
Youssef Zalal 6 of 14 42% 4 of 11 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 SeungWoo Choi 9 of 18 50% 4 of 11 3 of 4 2 of 3 7 of 15 0 of 1 2 of 2
Youssef Zalal 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Seung Woo Choi vs. Youssef Zalal

Round 1
In yet another bout stung by opponent change after opponent change, “Sting” Choi (8-3, 1-2 UFC) finds himself glad to face anyone inside the cage, drawing a tough matchup against the recently surging Zalal (10-3, 3-1 UFC) also at featherweight. The third man inside the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, and the two men are so glad to be competing tonight that they practically hug when touching gloves. Choi opens up with a leg kick that comes up short, and Zalal walks around the outside and similarly misses with his own leg kick. Choi lets loose with a head kick, and he fires off a one-two that makes Zalal bounce off the cage wall. Choi’s punches are drawing reactions out of his opponent, and he just misses with a head kick that blows back Zalal’s hair. Zalal jabs to the body, and he hops forward with a left hand and ducks out of the way before a counter can find him. Zalal sticks his man with a jab, and is in and out with a body strike but he does take a high body kick. Zalal starts talking, and Choi slams him in the leg with a kick. Zalal’s jabs allow him to get out of danger as Choi is loading up on power strikes, and the South Korean does land with a solid right hand but Zalal rolls with it without issue. Choi scores a body kick and glances off with a pair of punches as he wings heavily, but the speed of Zalal is giving his foe issues as he jabs in and out. Zalal chains a strike into a takedown attempt, and he does not secure it but bullies “Sting” into the wire. Choi grinds his elbow on Zalal’s face while defending himself, and Tognoni asks them to stay busy as a stalemate has presented itself. Zalal pushes up high before changing levels for a low double, but Choi keeps his legs spread far enough apart to keep his balance and break the grip. Choi lands a couple heavy shoulder strikes, but Tognoni breaks them apart. Choi steps back and delivers a leg kick, and gets clipped with a left hand on the way in but he lands as well. As they come together and break, “Sting” stings him with an elbow. Choi tags Zalal with a quick counter, and presses Zalal into the fence before dragging Zalal down to punctuate the round right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 2
Both men jab at the same time to begin the second frame, and Choi walks Zalal down and works him with a left hand. An errant kick from Zalal clanks off the cup, but Choi assures that he is fine and darts forward to pursue a takedown. Zalal, with his back on the fence, jumps up to attack a guillotine choke. In the process, Zalal turns the two around, and he goes after his own takedown while Choi works him with short elbows to the side of the head. Zalal’s single leg takedown attempt ignores a solid elbow to lift Choi’s leg up, but Choi is still able to stay standing on one leg. “The Moroccan Devil” changes it up to a double leg takedown, and Choi keeps elbowing him to break it up. Zalal looks to elevate his opponent, and he does not have the ability to put Choi on his back, leading to Tognoni asking them to keep fighting. Zalal stays pressed on Choi against the cage until Tognoni splits them up. Choi lands a kick on the shoulder, and a few punches clatter off Zalal’s face. Zalal smiles and gets out of the way, but he takes a jab on the chin as he retreats. Choi powers forward with punches before latching on to his opponent for a body lock takedown attempt, but Zalal sees it coming and holds on tight without concern of hitting the canvas. Choi turns the attempt into a throw, and both end up on the ground but Choi cannot keep him there. Zalal looks for upkicks that do not score, and when he stands up, he goes after a flying knee. Choi brushes it aside and cracks him with a right hand. Zalal scores a knee when Choi tries to clinch up, and he connects with a jab but eats a right hand. Choi catches a kick and pushes Zalal down, but Zalal pops up. The two both leap with flying strikes at the same time, and they crash into the fence without landing much of note before the second round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 3
The glove touch commences the final round, and Choi is looking for knockout blows early as he slings head kick and big punches. He backs Zalal away with a kick and then follows it with a slapping leg kick, and his forward momentum bowls Zalal over. “The Moroccan Devil” is sly, and he rolls through to stand back up, where he re-presents his jab. Choi crashes forward with strikes to clinch, and this time, Zalal is not interested in engaging like this. Choi gathers himself and attempts this again, so Zalal jumps guard for a guillotine choke. As there is nothing to it, Zalal bails on it and spins around to attack a double leg takedown. Choi stands him back up, and for the first time, Zalal lifts him up and sets him down. Zalal immediately attacks a guillotine choke, and he rolls to mount as it is locked in fairly tight. Choi grits it out, and he puts Zalal on his back, so Zalal throws his legs up for a triangle choke. The South Korean is not remotely flustered, as he breaks the posture and sits down in Zalal’s guard. Choi drops down a shoulder strike to put Zalal flat on his back, and Zalal sits up only to get dropped back down. Zalal uses upkicks to back Choi off, and as Choi avoids them, he vaults back up. Zalal lands a quick jab but takes two punches for it, and he changes levels for a single leg takedown. Choi defends it by grabbing the fence, and Tognoni does not call it as Zalal is still pushing to try to complete it. Choi sits against the fence and stands up, but Zalal scoops him up and hits a double. “Sting” stands up once more without issue, and he allows Zalal to take his back for a moment. Zalal defends a takedown attempt with a guillotine choke, and he keeps his balance as Choi nearly has him down. Choi stays heavy, keeping his full body weight pressed on his opponent, so Zalal latches on to one final guillotine choke. It is not there, and time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal (29-28 Choi)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal (29-28 Zalal)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal (29-28 Choi)

The Official Result
Seung Woo Choi def. Youssef Zalal via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady picks the underdog SeungWoo Choi, disagreeing with the line that has Zalal as a heavy favorite. He notes that Zalal may struggle to take Choi down, and if the fight stays standing, Choi's striking is very impressive. He also mentions that Zalal is coming in on short notice, which adds to his uncertainty. He is not overly confident but likes the value at plus money.

odds comment: Zalal minus 255 is too wide; Choi plus 195 is good value
"I'm gonna take the underdog here, I'm gonna take the underdog and Choi... those odds are insane like Zalal minus 255."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi as a dog-or-pass, viewing it as a close fight. He notes Choi's takedown defense (stuffed 11 vs Evloev, 8 vs Tucker) and believes his physical attributes and kickboxing make him live. He thinks the line moved too far in Zalal's favor and sees value on Choi.

"i'll roll with troy but realistically i i i just i don't think he's going to come out here and dominate i think it's going to be a very close fight that could go either way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Zalal is a well-rounded fighter with good cardio and a solid ground game. He should be able to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision. Choi has a tough run in the UFC and tends to fade as fights go on. Zalal's pace and pressure will be too much. I expect Zalal to win by decision, using his wrestling and volume striking.

Zalal by decision
"i'm going with yusuf's the law i think he wins this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru picks the underdog SeungWoo Choi, believing the odds should be even. He highlights Choi's Muay Thai background and reach advantage, and doubts Zalal's offensive grappling ability to expose Choi's ground game. He predicts Choi will piece Zalal up on the feet for two rounds, possibly slowing in the third, winning a 30-27 decision.

30-27 decision
"I'm going with the underdog in sung wu choi to get the upset against yusuf salao"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he is sneaky good with five UFC wins all by KO/TKO. He believes Garcia's striking and wrestling are there, and that Choi Seung-woo has been finished before. He has placed a bet on Garcia at -140 and expects the line to move.

bet placed at -140
"Steve Garcia is the pick I got a nice little bet on him at minus 140"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Cody also picks Garcia but with less confidence, noting Garcia's own durability issues and the fact that both fighters have been dropped. He sees the fight as close to 50/50 and suggests taking Choi if plus money is available. He emphasizes the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet, expecting a violent finish.

"I got one guy that's on a three-fight winning streak... I got to get the guy in the three-fight winning streak."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Garcia by knockout, comparing the fight to a coin flip but ultimately choosing Garcia. He notes both fighters have high knockdown rates and can be dropped, but Garcia's size (6'0", 75" reach) and recent form (5 knockdowns in last 3 fights) give him the edge. He expects a stand-up war ending in a Garcia knockout.

by KO
"heads we're gonna go with Steve Garcia here to uh drop Troy a couple times and then all out War"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Garcia is a -140 favorite. He relies on his knockout power and has a three-fight KO streak. Choi is more technical but has been finished before. Garcia can survive early pressure and land a big shot to get the KO. I prefer Garcia by knockout rather than moneyline, as his KO line is around +130.

Garcia by knockout
"I would rather Garcia by knockout rather than Garcia moneyline at minus 140"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Paul likes Garcia's momentum and power, noting his three-fight winning streak with five knockdowns. He questions Choi's durability, pointing out Choi has been knocked down five times in his last three fights. Paul thinks Garcia's power is the difference and expects a knockout, though he acknowledges both have shaky chins.

"I think it's Steve all day here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, noting he has doubted Garcia before but he keeps winning. He highlights Garcia's recent finishes over Malik El Kousa, Shannon Nurnbeck, and Chase Hooper, and his training at Jackson Wink. He points out Choi Seung-woo's questionable chin, getting wobbled in most fights, and believes Garcia's power and size at 145 will be too much.

"I'm gonna go with um Steve Garcia I've doubted Steve Garcia enough"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Turtled.