UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025 · Welterweight · Completed
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Belal Muhammad
4.43 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.82 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.14 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jack Della Maddalena
5.57 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
3.84 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
0.13 TD Avg
10.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Belal Muhammad - Fight History
SCHED vs Gabriel Bonfim
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace and cardio over five rounds as the deciding factor. He acknowledges that Bonfim is more technical and skilled, but believes Muhammad's relentless forward pressure and grappling will wear Bonfim down, especially in the later rounds. He notes that Bonfim's lone loss came to a pace-pusher in a three-round fight, and now he faces five rounds of Muhammad.

"I'm going to take Belal to get this done."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

AJ picks Bonfim to win, citing his youth, precise striking, leg kicks, and jiu-jitsu. He believes Bonfim's footwork and accuracy will trouble Muhammad, and that Muhammad's wrestling edge is negated by Bonfim's grappling. AJ expects Bonfim to do damage on the feet and possibly win by decision or late finish.

over 3.5 rounds minus 175; Bonfim by decision or KO
"I'm going with Gabriel Bonef to beat the side of Balor Muhammad... I think Bonef is going to be bit too quick for Bal Muhammad."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

AJ believes Belal Muhammad will bounce back from recent losses to top competition, using his wrestling and control time to neutralize Gabriel Bonfim. He notes Bonfim's height advantage and striking volume but questions his takedown defense (76%) compared to Muhammad's (90%). AJ acknowledges the risk of Muhammad's age and recent striking deficits but expects a rebound win, possibly by decision.

fight might go to decision
"I think Bal Muhammad bounces back in a big way. Uh, you know, it might go to a decision though."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, believing he will slow the pace and use his wrestling to grind out a win. He notes Muhammad's toughness, cardio, and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Muhammad needs to make the fight boring and avoid giving Bonfim room to strike. He has never seen Muhammad break, while Bonfim has been broken before.

"Balam Muhammad needs to avoid giving Gabriel the room to breathe, the room to throw. We have seen Gabriel Brafen be broken. I have never seen Bal Muhammad break."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He highlights Muhammad's elite durability and takedown defense, and thinks the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio. He doubts Bonfim can take Muhammad down or knock him out, and expects Muhammad to take over as the fight goes on. He also notes that Bonfim's recent wins are questionable.

by decision
"Balam Muhammad by by decision for me."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad has heart and a great gas tank, and he will push the pace to win a close decision. Gabriel Bonfim is overrated, with a controversial win over Stephen Thompson and a loss to Nicolas Dalby. Bonfim tends to not push the gas pedal, while Muhammad will outwork him.

decision win; odds: Belal -140 favorite
"I think Bal is just going to push more and win a 3-2 decision."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad is picked due to his superior cardio and pressure, which will break Gabriel Bonfim over five rounds. The host notes Bonfim's only loss was to Nicolas Dalby, who maintained a high pace, and Belal's boxing and wrestling are better. He sees Belal winning by unanimous decision or late stoppage, as Bonfim's submission skills are from top position and Belal is good at avoiding danger. The host is not sold on Bonfim as a prospect and believes Belal's championship experience is key.

Belal Muhammad wins by unanimous decision or later stage stoppage; likes him at -140
"I think Bal Muhammad is still a championship caliber uh type of fighter. I've always been on the opposite end of the Gabrielle Bonfam hype train."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Muhammad's wrestling and cardio are elite, and Bonfim has never faced a wrestler of his caliber. Bonfim's takedown defense is questionable, as he was taken down by lesser fighters. Muhammad should control the fight for 25 minutes and win a unanimous decision.

unanimous decision
"I'm going to go with Bal remember the name Muhammad to beat Gabrielle Bonfam in the Apex this Saturday by unanimous decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Lucrative James picks Belal Muhammad despite the 10-year age disadvantage, citing Belal's superior experience, gas tank, and wrestling. He believes Bonfim is a 'finish or bust' fighter who will fade after the first couple of rounds, and that Belal's durability and veteran savvy will allow him to survive early submission threats and take over in later rounds. He predicts a round 4 or 5 knockout via ground and pound.

Belal Muhammad via KO in round 4 or 5
"I will be picking as you can guess Bal Muhammad at 37 years old against the up and coming hungry 28-year-old. I'm going to pick him to win the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Muhammad's high pace, durability, and cardio should overwhelm Bonfim, who has cardio issues. Bonfim's best chance is an early stoppage, but if it reaches the third round, Muhammad will take over and likely get a TKO in round 4.

Muhammad by TKO in round 4
"I think if this reaches the third round, that means that Bal is able to survive the power of Bombfi and has been successful in terms of implementing his pace."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 56 of 139 40% 97 of 197 0 of 7 0% 0 0 3:35
Ian Machado Garry 0 72 of 141 51% 96 of 167 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 24 of 57 42% 30 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Ian Machado Garry 0 27 of 53 50% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 11 of 33 33% 28 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:49
Ian Machado Garry 0 20 of 39 51% 35 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 49 42% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:06
Ian Machado Garry 0 25 of 49 51% 30 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 56 of 139 40% 45 of 126 8 of 9 3 of 4 52 of 131 4 of 8 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 72 of 141 51% 35 of 98 10 of 15 27 of 28 66 of 134 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 24 of 57 42% 17 of 49 5 of 5 2 of 3 23 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 27 of 53 50% 14 of 36 2 of 5 11 of 12 27 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 11 of 33 33% 9 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 3 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 20 of 39 51% 9 of 27 3 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 21 of 49 42% 19 of 47 1 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 25 of 49 51% 12 of 35 5 of 6 8 of 8 20 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ian Garry vs. Belal Muhammad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garry (-240); Muhammad (+190)

Round 1
Many have complained that this welterweight co-main attraction is not receiving five-round attention given its high stakes and that both men prefer a prolonged engagement. Nonetheless, Muhammad (24-4, 1 NC; 15-4, 1 NC UFC) and Garry (16-1, 9-1 UFC) will have three rounds to work today, meaning that every minute will count that much more. Fully aware that this one could reach the 15-minute mark, referee Rich Mitchell is in it for the long haul. The fighters do not touch gloves, opting to get right down to business.
Muhammad punches his way in, and Garry backs him off with a low kick and one high. Garry gets away with a slight eye scrape, and after a combination, he pushes off and jams his finger into Muhammad’s right eye socket. The few punches he landed have opened a cut beneath Muhammad’s left eye, which is not the one poked. Mitchell calls time and brings in the doctor but does not have a towel or cloth to wipe out the former champ’s eye. Mitchell admonishes the doctor for not bringing in the towel, who then comes in and bizarrely (and improperly) tends to the cut instead of the eye. The fighter cleans his eye out and is ready to go after about 100 seconds. Garry is quick to get right back behind his jab, intercepting Muhammad as he looks to change levels. Garry pushes out a front kick and checks a kick, and Garry’s low kick response is far heavier. Garry fires off a high kick from a safe distance, stay away from Muhammad getting his hands on him. Muhammad tries to cream him with a huge overhand right, missing it by a matter of millimeters. He tries again with the same swinging strike, and it is much more distant this time around. Garry’s jab flusters Muhammad, but he slips and has to scramble to get away. Garry stomps at Muhammad’s knee on the reset.
Muhammad paws out with his own left hand, faking level changes to draw reactions out of his opponent and marking up Garry’s cheek. Muhammad launches a head kick to target that wound, and he crashes forward when that is blocked to tie the Irishman up. Garry escapes, but Muhammad follows him and clips him with his hard right hand. Garry times a left hand that gets Muhammad’s attention, and he manages to lean back to evade the looping strike aimed at his face. Garry pounds the front leg with a kick, and Muhammad counters him with a solid left. Muhammad shoots for a single, spinning Garry around several times but not grounding him. The taller Garry keeps himself upright and puts the wall behind him so that he can rebound and break free, and he looks for spinning strikes as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry

Round 2
Garry starts the round off with kicks to the lead knee, his oblique kicks hyperextending the limb when it lands flush. His jabs open a little cut on the bridge of the nose as well, and he catches Muhammad in the midst of an exchange but is nailed with the counter. Garry snaps the head back with a jab, and he leans to not get caught on the way out. Garry doubles up on his jab to plunk Muhammad with a right hand, and he spins with a back kick to the torso to punctuate the combination. Garry lands a hard leg kick, and Muhammad blitzes him with a body lock to take the fight horizontal. Garry splits off before getting dragged down, and Muhammad is warned for his outstretched fingers. Muhammad crashes the pocket again for a takedown, and the two clack heads when up close.
Muhammad puts his hand on the top of the fence illegally and is fussed at a few times before taking it back down, and the clinch continues. Muhammad embraces the grind by pressing as much of his body weight on the Irishman as he can, but Garry breaks free and trades hands with him on the way out. Muhammad shoots for a single, and Garry stifles him and bullies him on the way out. Muhammad bounces off the fence to reset, and he drives a one-two down the pipe. Garry pushes out with both hands, fingers outstretched, and he pokes Muhammad in the eye with at least his left. Mitchell calls time again and demands the doctor come back into the cage with another cloth to let him wipe it out, and Muhammad is irritated about the fouls landing on him again. Rules mean nothing, because Garry is only told to be careful with his fingers after landing multiple eye pokes and already being warned for this as well. Muhammad is good to go after about 75 seconds, and he proceeds to chase down the Irishman letting his hands go. Muhammad drops to a knee to go after a takedown, and he pushes Garry to the fence. Garry shrugs to signal he is just being held in place, so Muhammad knees him in the thigh a few times for good measure. Garry breaks out of the clinch with an elbow right at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 3
Muhammad takes a few seconds to charge his battery, and then proceeds to angrily race after Garry with his fists swinging. Garry bounces off the cage wall to get to his preferred range, and he nails Muhammad with a one-two. He follows the effective strike with a front kick that bashes “Remember the Name” in the face. Muhammad can only reply with a single entry, and Garry stops it, ducking away when Muhammad tries for something on the break. Muhammad walks him down and belts him with a vicious right hand, and Garry’s chin is granite after absorbing the blow. Muhammad bullies Garry to the wire when pursuing a takedown, and Garry’s defense holds up while Muhammad gloms onto him. Garry turns him about and has his guard ready to defend the high kick he anticipates.
Garry hurts Muhammad’s front leg with a number of push kicks to the knee, again hyperextending it and torqueing the tendons like overtuned guitar strings about to snap. They spin one another around when finding themselves in a clinch, and Garry is tripped up and bounces back to his feet as if there were springs in his heels. The Irishman walks through a pair of punches to fire back with a vengeance, clipping Muhammad with a right hand and shifting to be just out of range of anticipated counters. Muhammad settles for a clinch try, and Garry splits before long but has his hands down waiting for Muhammad to approach him. This allows Muhammad to pop him in the chops with several fast punches, only to get met with a slashing elbow that would make Jason Voorhees blush. Muhammad holds serve as he tries to give Garry everything he has left, and the two men proceed to go wild with head kicks, spinning stuff, looping punches and anything else they can muster until time expires. This one was very close and scores may vary, but a title shot may not be looming for the victor given the other recent spectacular performances at welterweight for names like Michael Morales and Carlos Prates.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry (30-27 Garry)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry (30-27 Garry)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry (29-28 Garry)

The Official Result
Ian Garry def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad. He argues that if Garry can defend takedowns, he wins easily due to superior striking, length, speed, and power. Muhammad's only path is wrestling, but he has no Plan B. Garry showed adjustments in his loss to Shavkat, while Muhammad is one-dimensional. Angelo acknowledges the fight is competitive but favors Garry.

"I have to go Ian here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Big Brady picks Ian Machado Garry by decision, criticizing Belal Muhammad's fight IQ and game plan. He believes Muhammad will try to strike instead of wrestle, leading to a clear decision loss. He notes Muhammad's tools but doubts his execution.

decision
"I'm going to take Gary. I'm going to take Gary to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Cody picks Ian Garry confidently, noting that Belal Muhammad's wins are aging poorly and that Garry is younger, bigger, and has better takedown defense. He believes Garry can outpoint Muhammad and stuff takedowns, similar to how Michael Morales beat Brady. Cody warns against falling into the trap of hating on Belal, but ultimately sees Garry's advantages.

"I got to go Gary as well, but if you got it at minus 180 - 190 the more you start to fall to this minus 220 - 230 more"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Connor picks Garry, citing his size, reach, and athleticism as key advantages over Muhammad. He notes that Muhammad's wins have come against smaller opponents and that Garry's improved striking and clinch work from the Prochazka fight give him confidence. Connor acknowledges Muhammad's tactical skill but doubts his physicality at the elite level.

Garry by decision; fight could be similar to Shavkat vs Garry
"I think I'm going to pick Gary. I think he's big enough and the ball is not physical enough that I trust the ball because I mean, that's the other thing with Gary in that Shopkop fight is I think …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, youth (27 vs 37), and recent grappling improvements shown against Shavkat Rakhmonov. He believes Belal's only path is wrestling, but Garry's takedown defense and scrambling have improved. He notes the 10-year age gap and Garry's momentum. He predicts a decision win for Garry.

"I'm going to go with Ian Gary in this fight, right?"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Garry is a slick striker with high fight IQ and takedown defense. Muhammad relies on grappling pressure but may struggle to get takedowns. Garry should out-strike him and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

Garry by decision; wait for better line
"I'm going to go Gary here. I'm going to go Gary by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Paul picks Ian Garry, having added him to parlays early. He believes Garry's length, footwork, and takedown defense will be too much for Belal, who is at the end of his career. Paul notes that Belal's wins are aging poorly and that Garry's striking and ring IQ are superior.

"I think Gary's length, footwork, probably even takedown defense is going to be too much for Bal."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad, believing Garry's striking and takedown defense will be too much. He notes Garry's performances against Shavkat and MVP. He predicts a third-round TKO, with Garry calling out Makhachev afterward.

Ian Garry to fight for more than 2.5 total rounds (from earlier prizepicks segment); third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Ian Garry. I think he finishes Belal. I think he's going to get a TKO over Belal Muhammad."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Zane also picks Garry, emphasizing his faith in Garry's improved game plan and coaching from the Prochazka fight. He notes that Garry's reach and ability to control range will trouble Muhammad, who lacks the athleticism to pressure effectively. Zane sees Muhammad's path to victory as narrow, requiring a perfect game plan.

Garry by decision; Muhammad could win if Garry regresses
"I'm taking Gary as well, but it's a very compelling matchup. I really like it."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 318 41% 155 of 349 3 of 9 33% 0 0 3:21
Jack Della Maddalena 0 178 of 342 52% 200 of 364 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jack Della Maddalena 0 28 of 61 45% 28 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 63 33% 21 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Della Maddalena 0 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 32 of 79 40% 32 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 34 of 76 44% 35 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
4 Belal Muhammad 0 31 of 65 47% 35 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 33 of 59 55% 51 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Belal Muhammad 0 27 of 62 43% 46 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:32
Jack Della Maddalena 0 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 318 41% 119 of 297 11 of 18 2 of 3 116 of 295 14 of 21 2 of 2
Jack Della Maddalena 178 of 342 52% 113 of 254 47 of 65 18 of 23 167 of 326 11 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 21 of 49 42% 15 of 40 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 28 of 61 45% 14 of 39 7 of 11 7 of 11 27 of 58 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 21 of 63 33% 19 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 30 of 63 47% 16 of 45 10 of 14 4 of 4 29 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 32 of 79 40% 29 of 74 3 of 5 0 of 0 29 of 76 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 34 of 76 44% 20 of 58 10 of 14 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 31 of 65 47% 30 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 54 5 of 10 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 59 55% 27 of 48 4 of 8 2 of 3 32 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 27 of 62 43% 26 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 53 of 83 63% 36 of 64 16 of 18 1 of 1 45 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Muhammad (-192), Della Maddalena (+160)

Round 1
Sometimes, a champion does not defend their throne against the top contender, but rather the top contender that is available at the time. This welterweight headliner will see Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC; 15-3, 1 NC UFC) put his belt on the line for the first time, and he meets Della Maddalena (17-2, 7-0 UFC) for all the marbles in a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level. Referee Jason Herzog will be the third man in the Octagon for a match that could very well go 25 hard minutes, and he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Della Maddalena immediately takes to the center of the cage, where he jabs his way forward. Muhammad responds with a body shot, and Della Maddalena jabs him up. Della Maddalena kicks and punches his way forward, beating the champ to the punch. Muhammad responds with his own jab and a high kick that makes Della Maddalena spin around, from momentum and not damage. They flick jabs at one another, with Della Maddalena the more active of the two. Della Maddalena picks and pokes, and Della Maddalena responds with a power right hand. He lands a second, getting the challenger’s attention. The Aussie keeps his guard up to block a trio of punches coming his way, and kicks the champ upside the head and lances him with a left hand. A right hand from Della Maddalena stings Muhammad with a right hand up top, and he gets jabbed back and eats a right hand that follows. Della Maddalena’s leg kick lands a few times here and there when not landing up top, and he chains a low kick into one high. Della Maddalena sneaks in a left hand, and he nails the front leg with another kick. Muhammad lunges and cannot reach his man, but he sells out and shoots for something. He bails on it to drill Della Maddalena with a punch flurry, and his head kick at the end gets in. Muhammad dodges a knee and pushes out his own jab, and he rips a left to the body and kicks the same spot. They crash together, letting loose elbows that hurt the other, and then back off. One missed hook kick from the champ concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Della Maddalena begins the second stanza aggressively with kicks aimed at all targets, and he pulls back when Muhammad starts to put a jab together. Muhammad rifles off a right hand, and when Della Maddalena ducks, the champ punts him in the head. Della Maddalena’s crooked nose stays crooked as a result, and he reaches out a right hand in response. The toes of the challenger stab into his foe’s midsection, who sits in the pocket and looks for hooks from up close. Della Maddalena drives home a one-two that sends a gob of spit flying from Muhammad’s mouth, and Muhammad takes it flush and does not waver. Instead, Muhammad evades a front kick and lashes out with punches. They take turns attacking one another, until Muhammad breaks up the back-and-forth striking with a takedown shot. Della Maddalena shrugs it off, and he blocks a high kick that he knows is coming. Muhammad loops a few left hands out while trying to wrap them around the jab, and he kicks the challenger in the side that is already showing some welting. Muhammad punches his way into a takedown, and when it fails, he lands a few punches but gets caught on the way out. Muhammad catches Della Maddalena with a left hand when circling away, and he parries a front kick and comes up short by a matter of inches with his hooks. Della Maddalena jabs to the body, and Muhammad whacks him upside the head with a hard right hand. Della Maddalena responds with a combination that busts Muhammad’s nose open, and blood is quick to flow. Muhammad tries a spinning back fist, and Della Maddalena mocks him with one of his own before attempting an earnest wheel kick that brushes past the beard. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
The third round opens up as both men launch punches at one another, with Muhammad landing the better in the early exchange. Della Maddalena bites down on his mouthpiece to let his fists fly, and the third and fourth in a combination knock the champ’s head around. Della Maddalena dodges and sways when Muhammad returns fire, exaggerating his movement as he is feeling himself in there. Della Maddalena jabs the body with his foot, and kicks the lead shoulder. Muhammad responds in kind, and he laughs off a faked takedown effort from the Aussie. Muhammad punches his way forward, but he backs off before landing anything of merit. Instead, it is Della Maddalena who connects, with a right hand. Muhammad walks him down and connects a few times, but his nose gets further bloodied up by the speedy hands of the challenger. Della Maddalena chips at the calf, and he leans back as a right hand buzzes his temple. Della Maddalena jabs a few times, and Muhammad steels himself and launches a big right. Della Maddalena takes it flush and keeps on rolling, jabbing to the head and body as he keeps things mixed up. He rings the champ’s bell with a right hand, who then gives him back a left hook to think about. Muhammad pushes out a knee that bounces off the guard, and he chambers and fires a huge right hand that does not fluster his foe in the least. Muhammad runs forward, ignoring the jabs to let bigger punches go. This succeeds to a degree, until the boxer tags him with a right hand. Della Maddalena then scores a left as he backs away, in his element, strafing and swaying as he glides around. Muhammad walks him down and busts him in the face, and Della Maddalena laughs them off and throws back hammers. Muhammad shoots for a takedown, and he leans against his foe when he does not get it. Della Maddalena defends it and tries for his own, and Muhammad elbows him in the side and back of the head. Muhammad is warned for the strikes as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 4
Shockingly, the champion might need a finish as they enter the fourth frame, and given Muhammad’s 25% stoppage rate, it might be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, he tries hard right out of the gate, practically sprinting at the challenger and landing heavy punches. Della Maddalena lets him do this and backs away to the wall to rebound off of it, but his jabs are not deterring Muhammad any longer. Muhammad marks up the bridge of Della Maddalena’s nose, swinging with big uppercuts and getting caught on the way in. The champ shoots for a takedown, and he lets it go to unload with a massive combination of uppercuts. Della Maddalena pays him back with his own power shots, spraying the blood from Muhammad’s face all around the cage floor. Muhammad uses his pressure to push on Della Maddalena and try to take him down, and he aims a knee to the dome that is legal while Della Maddalena is leaned over. Della Maddalena succeeds in defending the takedown and spins his man around, and Muhammad breaks and lets loose a short stream of uppercuts. Della Maddalena walks him down, walks through an uppercut and ignores a jab so that he can measure his own shots. Muhammad swings wildly with a right hand and back fist after it, and Maddalena jabs and dodges. Muhammad shoots for a double, and Della Maddalena shuts him down and turns Muhammad to the wire. Muhammad spins him around and looks for a head kick up close, but he cannot keep Della Maddalena on the fence. A left hand from Muhammad blows open Della Maddalena’s cauliflower ear, and Della Maddalena responds with a right hand. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
Muhammad plods forward to commence the final frame, taking a deep breath and jabbing Della Maddalena around the cage. Muhammad rips a kick to the body, and he swings punches that bang into his foe’s forehead. Muhammad keeps heavy pressure, dodging a one-two and coming out swinging with a pair of right hooks. Della Maddalena staggers him with three left hands, and he skips to the side and intercepts Muhammad with a vicious knee that shreds a cut open on the corner of Muhammad’s eye. Rather than think about it, he blasts Della Maddalena with a counter, and he shoots for a takedown and finally lands it. Positioning himself in half guard, Muhammad smothers with his shoulder pressing the Aussie down. The champ hammers down with ground-and-pound, his blood covering Della Maddalena’s chest, which allows him to slip around and explode back to his feet. Della Maddalena’s eye swells up quickly from the damage inflicted, and Muhammad runs at him with his fists flying. Della Maddalena backs him off for a second with a front kick, and they proceed to hack at one another with elbows. Della Maddalena clubs the champion with a left, a right and a few more punches as he has “Remember the Name” rocked. Della Maddalena clinches up for a second before letting loose with body shots, and he tries a takedown and gets thrown to the ground. Muhammad scrambles to push Della Maddalena to his back, where he frantically lashes out with punches and elbows. Della Maddalena protects himself by putting his head between Muhammad’s legs, and he bursts back to his feet. Muhammad leans him against the cage and tries to get him down, but Della Maddalena pushes him away and kicks him in the head. The Aussie drills Muhammad with a punch combo that staggers him badly, but he peels back rather than trying to finish the job. He re-engages, and Muhammad is ready for him throwing hammers. Della Maddalena does the same right to the final bell, and the two welterweights go the distance in a thriller that few expected would turn out this way. There may be a new champion crowned, but either way, Muhammad shed part of his reputation of being boring with that 25-minute banger.
The scores are read, and just like that, the Muhammad era is over before he could defend it once. Australia has a new champion in the form of hard-nosed brawler Della Maddalena, who stepped up to the plate and exceeded all expectations with that performance. The Contender Series has another champion from its ranks, with Della Maddalena pushing his phenomenal win streak to 18 thanks to his likely bonus-winning battle. Because of this result, lightweight king Islam Makhachev is going to move up and be the first to challenge Della Maddalena soon, while Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira—possibly for an interim title—on International Fight Week. The confident new champion declares that he will "get one back for Volk" against Makhachev. We will be here for those terrific matchups, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (48-47 Della Maddalena)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.

"I'm going to trust the process here. I do think Bal wins. Not only is he a smart guy who understands the dangers of striking, but he also carries the wrestling reputation with him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.

"Give me Blow. Give me Balao. Give me Blow to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.

"I think Muhammad's grappling style and high pressure, high pace will be too much for the striker in Matelena to keep up with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.

second round TKO
"I'm going with JDM. I'm going with JDM. That's what I'm doing. The boys are taking this one. JDM's getting it done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
WIN vs Leon Edwards
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 47 of 71 66% 89 of 114 2 of 2 100% 0 2 7:11
Leon Edwards 0 68 of 121 56% 192 of 281 9 of 13 69% 0 0 12:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 15 of 21 71% 25 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Leon Edwards 0 17 of 34 50% 51 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
2 Belal Muhammad 0 11 of 16 68% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Leon Edwards 0 13 of 22 59% 27 of 39 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:25
3 Belal Muhammad 0 2 of 4 50% 19 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:18
Leon Edwards 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
4 Belal Muhammad 0 6 of 10 60% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:30
Leon Edwards 0 21 of 30 70% 62 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:17
5 Belal Muhammad 0 13 of 20 65% 18 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:44
Leon Edwards 0 13 of 26 50% 43 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 47 of 71 66% 32 of 53 12 of 15 3 of 3 35 of 58 6 of 7 6 of 6
Leon Edwards 68 of 121 56% 59 of 110 9 of 11 0 of 0 62 of 111 0 of 4 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 15 of 21 71% 7 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0
Leon Edwards 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 30 0 of 3 1 of 1
2 Belal Muhammad 11 of 16 68% 8 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
Leon Edwards 13 of 22 59% 13 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 18 0 of 1 3 of 3
3 Belal Muhammad 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Leon Edwards 4 of 9 44% 3 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 6 of 10 60% 5 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Leon Edwards 21 of 30 70% 18 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 2
5 Belal Muhammad 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 6
Leon Edwards 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Angelo picks Leon Edwards to win, citing Edwards' sharper striking and takedown defense. He notes that Belal Muhammad's wrestling pressure could be a factor, but expects Edwards to defend takedowns and frustrate Belal as the fight goes on. Angelo admits he will be rooting for Belal but believes Edwards is the more proven champion. He also mentions that Belal has been training with the Dagestani wrestlers and could maul Edwards, but still leans Edwards.

"I think Leon Edwards is going to be sharper on the feet defend a few takedowns I think balam Muhammad as the fight goes on is going to get more and more frustrated and I think Leon Edwards wins this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody believes Belal Muhammad is a talented generalist who can adapt his game plan to any opponent. He points out that Belal has shown different wrinkles, such as out-striking Gilbert Burns and Shawn Brady, and that his wrestling and pressure will be key. Cody notes that Leon Edwards has a history of dropping later rounds, as seen against Colby Covington and Rafael dos Anjos, and that Belal's volume and pace could overwhelm Leon in the championship rounds. He also mentions that Belal is at his best now, while Leon's previous opponents were past their prime.

Belal Muhammad by decision
"I think he can just crash the pocket and constantly come forward and constantly pressure try to use the volume game... second third fourth and fifth he needs just to make this absolute grind."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel argues that Belal Muhammad has improved significantly since the first fight, citing dominant wins over Shawn Brady and Gilbert Burns. He believes Leon Edwards has not looked better since winning the title, coasting against Colby Covington and a diminished Kamaru Usman. He emphasizes Belal's newfound wrestling focus and improved striking reads, predicting he will overwhelm Edwards. He also advises waiting on Belal's line as it may drift further due to public sentiment against Belal's trash talk.

Wait on Belal Muhammad line; expects line to move further in his favor
"I'm going B Muhammad because since their last fight I don't know that that Leon Edwards has looked better"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel argues that the first fight was not a domination, citing no knockdowns, no 10-8 round, and a close strike count. He believes Belal's relentless pace, high output, and ability to pressure will overwhelm Leon, who has shown fatigue in later rounds. He also notes that Belal is undervalued by the market and has consistently been a profitable underdog. He acknowledges Leon's kicking threat but thinks Belal can close distance and make it a dirty fight.

"I'm going an new balal Muhammad um and I'm riding this uh train till the to till the wheels fall off"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Jeff picks Leon Edwards, noting he looked good in the brief first fight and has been improving since winning the belt. He acknowledges Edwards' recent opponents (Covington, Usman, Diaz) are not elite, but still trusts the champion's development. He believes Edwards' reads and feints were working before the eye poke and expects him to handle Belal's pressure.

"going with the champ he looked good in their first fight even how brief it was he was you know getting his work done getting his reads in getting his faints in"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Paul favors Leon Edwards, citing his speed, slickness, and striking advantage. He argues that Leon was winning the first fight before the eye poke and has improved his takedown defense, as seen against Colby Covington. Paul believes Belal's power doesn't scare him and that Leon will win most exchanges on the feet. He also notes that Belal's path to victory relies on takedowns and control, but Leon has made strides in those areas.

"I think Leon at you know it's minus 230 minus 250 it's kind of moved to in some spots like I think he's a rightful favorite here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards by TKO in round two. He believes Edwards is a level above Belal Muhammad, as shown in their first fight where Edwards had success before the head kick. The Guru notes Edwards' reach advantage, distance management, and improved takedown defense from training with wrestlers like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. He thinks Muhammad will be hesitant and that Edwards will land a punch for the finish. He also mentions Muhammad's PED use as a concern but still favors Edwards.

TKO in round 2
"I'm going to go with Leon Edwards getting this one done he's got a bit of reach advantage to work with here and we know if Edwards has reach over an opponent even if he doesn't against usan he still …"
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 283 46% 132 of 283 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 81 of 147 55% 81 of 147 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Belal Muhammad 0 28 of 54 51% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Belal Muhammad 0 42 of 80 52% 42 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 283 46% 92 of 241 39 of 41 1 of 1 132 of 283 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 81 of 147 55% 35 of 96 13 of 16 33 of 35 81 of 147 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 19 of 39 48% 9 of 29 9 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 31 48% 7 of 22 3 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 18 of 51 35% 11 of 44 7 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 28 53% 6 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 10 15 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 25 of 59 42% 20 of 53 5 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 14 of 22 63% 7 of 14 3 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 28 of 54 51% 18 of 44 10 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 16 of 23 69% 6 of 12 4 of 4 6 of 7 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 42 of 80 52% 34 of 71 8 of 9 0 of 0 42 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 43 48% 9 of 30 3 of 4 9 of 9 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Five-Round Co-Feature: Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)

Round 1
A rarity in the promotion the last several years, the UFC is offering up an official “title eliminator” status for a fight. This comes at 170 pounds, between two excelling talents who are stringing win streaks together at the right time. While many believe Muhammad (22-3, 1 NC; 13-3, 1 NC UFC) should have gotten a title shot already, he will look to push his unbeaten streak to 10 when he collides with brick-fisted grappler Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC). The two will have five rounds to work, even with no championship or main event status available. This short-notice tilt will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and there is no nonsense or touching of gloves to start things off. Chants for “Let’s go, Burns” rain down immediately in the building, and Burns is spurred into action with a charging right hand. Muhammad absorbs a low kick and looks to find angles and get to Burns with his footwork. Muhammad ricochets a kick off his opponent’s raised guard, and he sneaks a left hand through it. Burns loads up on his power right hand, and Muhammad darts away and aims out a jab. Another solid right from the Brazilian connects square on the chin, and Muhammad backs off and eats a leg kick to follow. Burns flicks a kick up high off the raised guard, and he sneaks a right hand through. Muhammad retaliates with a shin to the ribs, and Burns intercepts a subsequent kick to tackle his man to the mat. Muhammad climbs right back up and strikes a few more kicks to the liver, and he dodges a swatting left hook. Muhammad stays composed and utilizes his jab effectively, mixing in kicks occasionally to stay busier. Burns comes up short on a winging hook, and he kicks the body. Muhammad counters with a straight left hand that staggers Burns, and Burns grits his teeth and slams his right fist into Muhammad’s jaw twice to make “Remember the Name” remember his power. Burns has a kick caught, and he scrambles out of the way before getting dumped to the floor. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Burns stumbles back right as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The second frame kicks off as the two welterweights meet in the middle, and Burns strikes first with a stomping kick to the kneecap. Muhammad strafes to his right, and Burns follows him with a kick to the inside of the knee. Burns comes up short with a right hook, allowing Muhammad to sink in another liver kick. Burns chambers and fires a low kick and a massive right hand, and Muhammad’s beard absorbs it without much issue. Muhammad whips a high kick up, and he aims one to the body as Burns retaliates low to the inner calf. Burns paws away a one-two, and he gathers his thoughts to blast Muhammad in the face with a power right. Muhammad replies with a blocked head kick, and Burns hops around to shake it out. Muhammad is far less active, as Burns steps in with a right. The jabs from Muhammad are less constant, and Burns stings him with a right hand on the temple. Muhammad flashes his jab a few times, and Burns walks into one and storms forward. Muhammad times a body kick, and Burns gives him one to the calf back. Burns fires off a short right hand when Muhammad bears down on him, and he lets go with an inside low kick. Muhammad rips a kick to the side, and Burns surges into action and has a right hand slide off the shoulder. Burns lets fly a low kick, and he dodges a zipping left hand. Muhammad gives chase, and his fists collide with the guard. The slower round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The round begins with a body kick from the Brazilian, and Muhammad retaliates with a front kick that grazes the cup. There is no pause, as Burns waves it off, and the crowd grows restless from the otherwise lack of action in the first minute. Muhammad gets off a jab or two, and Burns chambers his right hand and blocks a head kick. Burns gets off a single jab of his own, and he steps back from a looping punch. Burns kicks the lead leg a few times, and he stumbles when walking forward. Muhammad fires off a high kick that smacks into a shoulder, and Burns swings and misses wit ha haymaker. The pace is very deliberate and ineffective on both sides, and Muhammad throws two punches at a time if he can. Burns backs off, and Muhammad follows him with a head kick that bounces off the shoulder and a few straight punches. Burns tags him with a big right hand, and Muhammad shakes it off and sneaks a kick under Burns’ elbow. Burns steps in with a knee to the chest, and he gets kicked in the neck for his effort. The Brazilian appears no worse for wear, and he backs away when Muhammad jabs and front kicks at him. Burns throws a high body kick that smacks into the armpit, and Muhammad chains two kicks together with his left leg. Muhammad jabs quickly when Burns races forward, and he stays active with kicks. Muhammad gets into his groove of head kicks and jabs, stifling Burns. “Durinho” swings and misses with his right, and Muhammad makes him pay with a body shot. The tepid round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 4
Between rounds, Burns appears to be struggling with his left arm, and he complains to his corner that he cannot use it. Despite this, the championship rounds are upon them, and Burns’ body language and face show he is not having a good time in the cage. Muhammad compounds this by starting off Round 4 with a body kick and a few punches, and Burns blinks hard and drills Muhammad with a right hand on the jaw. Muhammad shakes it targets the same spot on the ribs with one more kick. Burns shells up as Muhammad kicks his body, and Burns replies with one of his own. Muhammad narrowly blocks a head kick in time, with Burns surprising him with the sudden strike. Muhammad stutter-steps his way into action, with a one-two off the guard as he leans back from a home run punch soaring at him. Burns drops down to snatch up a single, and he nails Muhammad with a blistering right hand that gives Muhammad a little wobble. Burns celebrates this with a body kick, a knee to the body and a leg kick, and he backs Muhammad away with a feint. Burns considers another single, and he abandons it because he cannot use his arm to secure it. Muhammad kicks high to the hurt arm, and Burns grimaces. Seeing this, Muhammad attacks it again with a kick up high. Muhammad shrugs off a leg kick to the inside of his knee, and he fires off two kicks to the shoulder. Burns blocks the strikes that come at him, and he splits a right hand down the pipe that shakes Muhammad up again. Muhammad weathers it and goes to jab, and the round ends with the crowd booing the welterweights.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
A dejected Burns is able to come out of his corner to start the last round, and a corner stoppage would not be out of the question given Burns condition. This sport rarely allows for such a courtesy, and the last round begins. Burns blocks an early head kick and loops two right hands over the top. Burns drops down for a takedown, and he abandons it and absorbs a few kicks to the head and body. Muhammad reaches his foe with a lunging right, and he is out of range when Burns attempts his overhand right. Burns is caught with a right hand coming in, and he wobbles back but gathers his balance. Muhammad punishes the ribs with the umpteenth kick to that same target, and Burns toughs it out. They both clash together with their fists, and Muhammad is the one to land better and backs Burns away. Burns secures a leg kick to buckle Muhammad’s knee for a second, but Muhammad speedily recovers and he takes another. Burns leaps in with a few rights, and Muhammad counters and fearlessly walks Burns down. Muhammad leans back from the obligatory right hook and tags him with a few punches, and he sees the telegraphed bomb and dodges it again. Burns knocks Muhammad back with his right, only for Muhammad to step in front of him and connect with a one-two. Burns swings and misses with two missiles that are right hands, with his left completely out of the picture in this fight other than as a blocking limb. They both trade heavy fire, and Muhammad darts out of harm’s way when Burns looks to reach him. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Muhammad kicks high and then aims one to the body, and the disappointing 25-minute affair comes to a merciful conclusion. The two immediately hug it out after the bell rings, and Muhammad should finally have done enough to earn a crack at the 170-pound throne.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (50-45 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling pressure and improved striking. He notes that Gilbert Burns is coming off a quick turnaround (fought three weeks ago) and that fighters in that situation often lose. Angelo believes Belal's wrestling pace will overwhelm Burns, and he questions Burns' submission threat off his back. He has a quarter unit on Belal at +105, noting the line has tightened from Burns being a big favorite.

quarter unit at +105
"I got a quarter of a unit on below at Plus 105."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Muhammad in this five-round fight. He believes Burns is the better striker early with more power, but Muhammad's cardio, pressure, and volume will wear Burns down in the later rounds. He notes Burns has questionable cardio and chin, and Muhammad has excellent takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Muhammad will weather the early storm and finish Burns late, possibly by fourth-round TKO.

Fourth round TKO prediction
"I'm going to take Muhammad here to win this fight I like him to weather the early storm put the pressure on put the pace on and break Burns as this fight goes on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody emphasizes that the five-round format heavily favors Belal Muhammad's proven cardio and durability over Gilbert Burns, who has questionable gas tank. He notes Belal's high ring IQ, ability to adjust game plans (lateral movement vs Luque, forward pressure vs Brady), and that Burns' recent wins are over older or less dangerous opponents. He expects Belal to survive early rounds and take over late, making the underdog line attractive.

Live betting after first round for better price
"pre-fight flop I will take the underdog Muhammad plus 110"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor also picks Muhammad, agreeing that Burns is uncomfortable under pressure and that Muhammad's jab will be key. He notes that Muhammad is a smart fighter who sticks to his game plan and that Burns' wrestling may not be a decisive factor. Connor expresses concern about Muhammad's short notice but trusts his conditioning.

"I'm going to pick Balal too, but that is my concern."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace, pressure, and cardio as key advantages over Gilbert Burns. He believes Muhammad's grappling-heavy style, similar to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, will wear down Burns, who has cardio issues. He expects Muhammad to finish Burns in the fourth or fifth round, and notes that the plus 120 odds look easy.

Belal Muhammad by TKO in round 4 or 5, plus 120 odds
"I think that this is a spot that he can go out there put Gilbert Burns through the grinder and finish him probably in the 4th of fifth round of this matchup give me give me below Muhammad a short …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Paul initially leaned toward Gilbert Burns but changed his mind after realizing the fight is five rounds, which makes the line more reasonable. He notes Burns' quick turnaround and Belal's experience fighting after Ramadan without issue. He says he's 'leaning ever so slightly towards Belal' because of the five rounds, but thinks the market has it right and it's a close fight.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Burns moved from 1.5 to 1; thinks one takedown is accurate
"I'm leaning ever so slightly towards below because of the fact that it's five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru confidently picks Burns, citing his peak physical condition from fighting frequently and his power advantage on the feet. He believes Burns will set traps and land big shots as Belal comes forward, and that Belal's takedowns won't worry Burns due to his jiu-jitsu. He also questions Belal's mindset and weight cut, noting Belal's complaints and inconsistent weight claims. He predicts a TKO via right hand against the cage.

TKO prediction
"I'm going with Gilbert Burns I like the fact that he called for five rounds knowing that Bilal Muhammad might not be in a peak shape I'm gonna go Gilbert Burns getting this one done by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Muhammad, emphasizing that Burns tends to destruct under pressure and that Muhammad's jab-centric striking is a great weapon against Burns' catch-and-counter style. He notes that Muhammad is adaptable and well-prepared, and that Burns' recent performance against Masvidal was uninspiring. Zane also mentions that the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio and pressure.

"I got to pick Balal Muhammad in that kind of fight."
WIN vs Sean Brady
TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 80 of 209 38% 80 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Brady 0 58 of 118 49% 58 of 118 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 26 of 80 32% 26 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Brady 0 25 of 62 40% 25 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 54 of 129 41% 54 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Brady 0 33 of 56 58% 33 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 80 of 209 38% 64 of 183 11 of 19 5 of 7 79 of 206 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sean Brady 58 of 118 49% 40 of 98 4 of 6 14 of 14 57 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 26 of 80 32% 18 of 66 6 of 10 2 of 4 26 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Brady 25 of 62 40% 15 of 51 2 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 54 of 129 41% 46 of 117 5 of 9 3 of 3 53 of 126 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sean Brady 33 of 56 58% 25 of 47 2 of 3 6 of 6 32 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Belal Muhammad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-145), Muhammad (+125)

Round 1
Headlining the prelims is a welterweight matchup that could easily and comfortably headliner any UFC Fight Night or ESPN-run event. For a possible shot at the logjammed welterweight throne, Muhammad (21-3, 1 NC; 12-3, 1 NC UFC) and his eight-fight unbeaten streak run up against Brady (15-0, 5-0 UFC), who has never dropped a pro fight. Someone will take a rough loss, barring something unexpected, and referee Lukasz Bosacki will be there for it. The 170ers have a strange bit of bad blood between them and decide not to touch ‘em up, and instead Muhammad comes out aggressively to push the pace on the undefeated fighter. Muhammad scores a left hand down the pipe, and Brady looks to swipe back at him and only lands a calf kick. Muhammad keeps moving forward and clips Brady with a right hand, and he retreats as Brady races forward. Brady works the lead leg with kicks, and he walks into a knee and forces Muhammad to fall over. When Muhammad stands, Brady gives him a shove to put him back to his seat but does not follow him down. Brady allows him to stand so that he can bust him in the chops with a right hand, and he gets a few punches off that get Muhammad’s attention. Muhammad keeps coming forward as he lines up a head kick, and Brady backs him away with a high body kick. Muhammad kicks the leg, and Brady changes levels in pursuit of a takedown but it is nowhere close to materializing. Brady backs off and whips a high kick up fast, and when it is guarded, he follows it with a clean right hand over the top. Muhammad pins a one-two on the chin, and Brady counters him to make him take a step back. Brady gets tagged with a short combination, and he blocks a head kick that follows. Muhammad gets out a left hand and the two start trading, with Brady landing flush and Muhammad giving it right back to him. Muhammad connects with a heavy right hand that draws some swelling under Brady’s right eye, and Brady shoots in from a distance and does not draw out a reaction. Muhammad walks him down and starts throwing hands, and Brady replies with a left hand that opens a cut on the side of Muhammad’s right eye. The horn sounds awkwardly, and the razor-close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The pace from Muhammad does not relent as the second round begins, continuously pressing forward as Brady sits down on counters. The welterweight contenders trade low kicks, and Brady shoots and is stopped in his tracks. Brady gets off a sharp left hook that splits the guard, and he smacks Muhammad in the nose with a front kick. Brady gets off another left hook as Muhammad is walking him down, and he kicks the body to give Muhammad momentary pause. Muhammad sticks out a jab that reddens the nose, and Brady lines up a one-two that shakes Muhammad up. Muhammad keeps his fists in Brady’s face, and the nose starts to leak from the offense. Brady jumps forward, mixing punches with kicks, and Muhammad stands firm in front of him and responds with a blocked head kick. Brady leaps forward with a powerful left hook, and he celebrates his work with a low single that gets stuffed by “Remember the Name.” Muhammad lands two punches as Brady prepares and connects with a counter, and he gets rocked with a short left hand. Muhammad blinks it out and fires back with a venomous right hand, and he uses several jabs to back Brady up. A Brady entry is tossed aside, and they trade jabs as Muhammad begins to unload on his punches. They kick at the same time, and Muhammad falls to the mat and jumps back up. A shovel uppercut from the Philadelphia native gets through, and he tries to get off a combination but has his bell rung by Muhammad. Muhammad pours it on with combinations, and he hurts Brady and puts him on the proverbial ropes. Muhammad continues his bombardment of unanswered punches as he batters Brady on the wall, and Brady is in big trouble and leans over from taking punishment. Muhammad stays right in his face, pounding on him with an assault of fiery fists. Brady tries to keep Muhammad honest with a heavy counter or two, but Muhammad will not relent as he drills Brady in the face again and again. The seemingly unending barrage of blows continues until Movahedi dives in to call it a standing TKO, and Brady immediately protests although he was in a bad, bad way. “Remember the Name” makes the crowd remember his name as he moves his unbeaten streak to nine, while handing Brady his first defeat as a professional. Muhammad declares that he fought down to face Brady, and that it is time to fight up – calling out champion Leon Edwards or Khamzat Chimaev for future opportunities.

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Sean Brady R2 4:47 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad despite admitting it goes against his gut. He believes Belal's constant pressure and wrestling volume will be the difference, as Sean Brady has cardio issues and tends to slow down. He compares it to the Maximov vs Malkoun fight, where constant shooting won the day.

"I think I'm gonna pick him I think the cardio the shooting is gonna be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks the underdog Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He questions Brady's takedown defense (87% but untested) and notes Brady slowed down in the Chiesa and McGee fights. Muhammad has superior cardio, volume, and takedown defense (91%). He expects Muhammad to have success in the striking as the fight goes on and win a decision.

"I'm gonna leave with the law here I think below is going to have success in the Striking I think in the first round Brady even might even take it but as the fight goes on I like the the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody picks Belal as an underdog, citing his relentless pace, excellent cardio, and underrated wrestling. He notes Belal's takedowns against top competition and his solid chin. Cody thinks Brady's striking is better but Belal can grind him down. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor and Khabib's help.

"I will actually take another flyer here on Blow Muhammad as the underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad to win, calling it 'first L time' for Sean Brady. He praises Belal's fight IQ, cardio, and ability to adapt, noting he stuffed 20 takedowns against Damian Maia and overcame adversity against Vicente Luque. Levi thinks Belal's preparation with Khabib Nurmagomedov will help him deal with Brady's top control. He believes Belal will pull away in the second and third rounds. Levi bet 2 units at +116.

Bet 2 units at +116. Notes that the line should be closer to pick'em and that Belal is plus money.
"I got two units on below and plus 116."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Brady is very difficult to take down, with only one takedown allowed in four UFC fights. He transitions well from takedown attempts to back control, as seen against Chiesa. Muhammad's wrestling-heavy style may not work, and Brady's power striking could land. Brady by decision at +150 is a solid play.

Brady by decision at +150
"give me Sean Brady Shawn Brady by decision which currently sits at plus 150"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Belal's smart game plan and ability to stick to it. He mentions Belal's grappling success against Vicente Luque and that Brady hasn't been tested against top competition. Paul likes the plus money and picks Belal.

"Muhammad is the pick for both of us"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sean Brady

The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Belal Muhammad, despite Brady being a favorite. He believes Brady's grappling threat will stifle Belal's stand-up, similar to the Damian Maia fight. He notes Brady's improvements, including a grappling match with Craig Jones, and predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Brady winning the first two rounds.

"I'm going Sean Brady and I'm annoyed that he's a favorite"
WIN vs Vicente Luque
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 84 of 184 45% 102 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Vicente Luque 0 60 of 155 38% 136 of 260 5 of 10 50% 0 0 7:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 14 of 37 37% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Vicente Luque 0 9 of 33 27% 35 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:39
2 Belal Muhammad 0 15 of 35 42% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 16 of 30 53% 24 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
3 Belal Muhammad 0 24 of 46 52% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 9 of 21 42% 21 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:21
4 Belal Muhammad 0 20 of 41 48% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 13 of 44 29% 41 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
5 Belal Muhammad 0 11 of 25 44% 12 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Vicente Luque 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 84 of 184 45% 54 of 141 6 of 17 24 of 26 80 of 179 2 of 3 2 of 2
Vicente Luque 60 of 155 38% 51 of 141 8 of 13 1 of 1 56 of 149 3 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 14 of 37 37% 8 of 26 1 of 5 5 of 6 13 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
Vicente Luque 9 of 33 27% 5 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 15 of 35 42% 5 of 23 2 of 3 8 of 9 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 16 of 30 53% 14 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Belal Muhammad 24 of 46 52% 19 of 39 3 of 5 2 of 2 21 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 1
Vicente Luque 9 of 21 42% 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 18 1 of 3 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 20 of 41 48% 15 of 34 0 of 2 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 13 of 44 29% 10 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 11 of 25 44% 7 of 19 0 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 13 of 27 48% 13 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad as an underdog, citing Belal's wrestling and fight IQ. He notes that Vicente Luque is dangerous on the feet and has submissions, but Belal can take him down and control the fight. He references Luque's fight with Kiesa where Kiesa had success taking Luque down but got too aggressive. Angelo believes Belal will stick to a wrestling game plan and win a decision.

"i like below muhammad in the underdog spot for the main event and i imagine he's gonna grapple a lot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win, likely by finish. He notes that Luque is dangerous everywhere—on the feet and on the mat—and that Belal Muhammad's wrestling, while improved against Stephen Thompson, may not be enough to control Luque. He points out that Muhammad struggled to take down Diego Lima (1 for 10) and that Luque has solid takedown defense and submission threats. Brady expects Luque to hurt Muhammad and finish him in the second or third round.

finish inside the distance (KO or submission), round 2-3
"i think luke is going to finish muhammad at some point in this fight whether it is like a club and sub whether it is a knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque but with hesitation, noting Belal's impressive wrestling against Wonderboy. He worries about Luque's cardio in a five-round fight and his takedown defense. However, he believes Luque's hand speed and striking will be key, and that Belal's record is deceiving. He sees danger if Belal extends the fight into later rounds.

"honestly i gotta go with vincente at the end of the day the line's not terrible minus 175 i believe in favor of uh luke"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +155 underdog, emphasizing Belal's ability to adapt game plans, as seen against Stephen Thompson (wrestling) and Demian Maia (striking). He notes Belal's improved lateral movement, feints, and cardio, which should allow him to survive early danger and take over in championship rounds. Levi acknowledges Vicente Luque's elite finishing ability (second most finishes in welterweight history) and the danger of his calf kicks, left hook, and d'arce choke, but believes Belal's discipline, chain wrestling, and refusal to rush submissions will be key. He is concerned about Belal fighting during Ramadan but notes he has done so before and sounded sharp in interviews. Levi states he is biased due to his friendship with Belal but insists his analysis is objective.

Belal Muhammad +155 underdog; mentions Belal by decision or late finish possible; says 'if he don't get finished, I think there's a very good chance you win this fight'
"I'm gonna take the underdog shot, I'm below here it's like blah just please don't get knocked out and there's a good chance that you win this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Paul favors Vicente Luque, citing his power, finishing ability, and danger in guard if taken down. He notes Luque trains with many wrestlers and believes his striking is superior. He acknowledges Belal's wrestling but thinks Luque's path to victory is clearer, especially with a potential finish.

"i'm still leaning towards not even leaning i like vicente luke to get the job done here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad despite being a big Vicente Luque fan. He believes Muhammad's volume and grappling will disrupt Luque's timing, and that Luque hates volume. He expects Muhammad to wear Luque down and submit him in the fourth or fifth round via rear-naked choke. He also accuses Muhammad of using steroids, citing his physique change.

fourth or fifth round submission (rear-naked choke)
"i've got a real feeling below wins this one and i'm going to pick him by fourth round renaked choke or fifth round real naked choke"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 19 of 32 59% 51 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:52
Stephen Thompson 0 58 of 95 61% 171 of 271 7 of 9 77% 1 0 11:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Stephen Thompson 0 44 of 72 61% 64 of 111 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:07
2 Belal Muhammad 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 16 62% 42 of 64 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:11
3 Belal Muhammad 0 2 of 5 40% 11 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Stephen Thompson 0 4 of 7 57% 65 of 96 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 19 of 32 59% 14 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 17 of 29 1 of 1 1 of 2
Stephen Thompson 58 of 95 61% 56 of 92 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 10 1 of 1 55 of 84
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 10 of 16 62% 8 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 2
Stephen Thompson 44 of 72 61% 42 of 69 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 7 1 of 1 41 of 64
2 Belal Muhammad 7 of 11 63% 5 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 13
3 Belal Muhammad 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Belal Muhammad vs. Stephen Thompson

Round 1
In this pivotal co-main event, renowned karateka “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC) will try to keep his place in the top echelon of the welterweight division. Against him will be Muhammad (19-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC), who will aim to find the secret of his power. Herb Dean will be the referee for this interesting stylistic clash, and the fighters are happy to touch gloves in a good show of sportsmanship. Thompson is quick to get to his signature style, staying out of range and backing off with kicks to the body and up high. Muhammad eats a hook kick in the face, and he shrugs it off so that he can shoot in for a double. “Wonderboy” stops it from succeeding and stings Muhammad with a left hand, and Muhammad is suddenly in trouble. Thompson spins with a kick that clatters off Muhammad’s dome, and he wears it well and blocks a few strikes that come at him. Thompson jumps forward with a strike, and Muhammad manages to power through and go for a takedown. Grabbing Thompson by his waist as they are both on their seats, they begin to slug it out from close range like a seated version of Frye vs. Takayama. After they continue to trade punches, Thompson walks his way back up using the fence, and he shucks off a standing guillotine try from Muhammad. Tight in the clinch, Thompson rips a few knees up high until Muhammad snags hold of a single to put Thompson down. “Wonderboy” manages to land on a knee so he is not flat down, and he grabs the fence to stand back up. Muhammad grapples him from behind, before turning things around to elevate Thompson and put him down. Muhammad lands on Thompson’s back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke before flattening Thompson out with strikes. “Remember the Name” rains down punches from this advantageous position, pounding on the side of Thompson’s head while Thompson turtles up. Thompson protects himself from the brunt of the strikes that should not merit a stoppage, and he turns to his side as Muhammad continues to work him over from above. A few punches land to the back of the head, and Muhammad bludgeons Thompson relentlessly until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to start off the second round, and Thompson is the immediate aggressor with side kicks to the face. Thompson slings a high kick with his rear leg, and the kick is blocked but still knocks Muhammad back a step. “Wonderboy” springs in with a strike and dances out of the way, and he lands cleanly to ring Muhammad’s bell. Thompson tees off on Muhammad until Muhammad has had enough of the striking, and he closes in to latch on to Thompson and wrench him down to the mat. Thompson works his way back up, only for Muhammad to lift him up and hold his ankle to put Thompson back down flat on the canvas. The Chicago native gets into half guard, where he isolates Thompson’s right arm to set up a kimura. When that does not succeed, Muhammad begins to batter Thompson’s thigh with elbows. Thompson pulls his arm free, only for Muhammad to continue elbowing the same spot. Thompson edges his way to the wall, and he posts on his knee to stand up as Muhammad torques on his arm for a straight armlock or kimura. Thompson appears to pay it no mind, but he is still trapped on the floor with no way up as precious seconds tick off the clock. Muhammad abandons the grip so that he can turn around and get off ground-and-pound, introducing his elbow to Thompson’s face repeatedly. Thompson eats several of these shots but blocks others, and Muhammad hacks at him with elbows until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 3
Muhammad instantly starts the round with a takedown try, and “Wonderboy” cannot stave him off with a few strikes as Muhammad advances relentlessly. Muhammad lifts Thompson’s leg all the way up in the air before putting Thompson down on the ground, and he ties Thompson’s legs up to keep him trapped. With his arm around Thompson’s back, he is able to smack Thompson in the face with short left hands. The former title challenger bursts back upright, and he fights off a subsequent takedown try with a choke attempt from above. Muhammad doggedly pursues another takedown, and he secures it in the center of the mat to put Thompson down at the midpoint of the final round. Muhammad claims half guard, and he calmly controls his opponent with light but effective ground-and-pound that keeps Dean away from standing them up. “Remember the Name” remembers that he can embrace the grind like the best of them, and he does exactly that, passing to side control and working Thompson over with elbows and hammerfists. Muhammad looks to pass to mount, but “Wonderboy” is able to at least keep that moral victory in his pocket as he is getting thoroughly outworked on the ground. Muhammad slashes Thompson with multiple elbows until the final horn ends this grueling match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.

1 unit on moneyline at +200
"i threw a full unit on bilal muhammad almost immediately"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.

decision
"give me a uh decision win for stephen thompson I don't like below muhammad in this spot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.

"I think thompson's going to do a lot of the same thing even though he himself is getting a little bit older he still moves as good as anybody his striking is as good as anyone's"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.

Muhammad by decision or late stoppage; under on Thompson's significant strikes
"I'm going with Belal Muhammad to get the biggest win of his career... plus 200 on a guy who I know is gonna fight for my money."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.

"i think this is a boring boring boring decision win for stephen thompson"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Stephen Thompson

The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.

"I am gonna lean more so with the decision around even money than the knockout here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.

"I like thompson here I think thompson is the rightful favorite um nobody really outstrikes thompson on the feets"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

The MMA Guru picks Stephen Thompson to win by 30-27 decision. He thinks Thompson's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Muhammad. He notes Muhammad struggles to get takedowns against top-level opponents and Thompson stuffed Burns' takedowns. He expects Thompson to out-strike Muhammad easily, though he jokes Thompson is too nice to finish.

"gotta go with stephen thompson here"
Jack Della Maddalena - Fight History
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
TKO R3 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 41 of 76 53% 53 of 90 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:13
Carlos Prates 3 104 of 193 53% 104 of 193 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 25 of 39 64% 29 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 1 36 of 79 45% 36 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Carlos Prates 2 46 of 69 66% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 41 of 76 53% 25 of 52 8 of 15 8 of 9 41 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 104 of 193 53% 79 of 164 11 of 14 14 of 15 89 of 171 1 of 1 14 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 15 of 30 50% 5 of 18 5 of 7 5 of 5 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 3 of 4 6 of 7 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 25 of 39 64% 19 of 28 3 of 7 3 of 4 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 36 of 79 45% 27 of 69 5 of 6 4 of 4 35 of 78 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 7 14% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 46 of 69 66% 39 of 61 3 of 4 4 of 4 32 of 48 1 of 1 13 of 20
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates

Round 1
Welterweights with an eye on a title shot meet in the headliner, as Della Maddalena (18-3; 8-1 UFC) and Prates (23-7; 6-1 UFC) prepare to give us five rounds or less of fisticuffs. Enforcement of the rules—and protection of the losing fighter, if necessary—falls to veteran referee Mike Beltran, who has to break up a scuffle before the fighters are even introduced. Both men come out in orthodox stance and it’s Prates who lands first with a low kick as he slides around the outside, trying to dictate the distance to the shorter boxer. Della Maddalena is patient, stalking and cutting off the cage, and when he corrals the Brazilian near the fence, he steps in with a pair of heavy body shots. Two minutes in, neither man has really put his stamp on the round yet, but Prates is doing a good job of keeping Della Maddalena on the end of his noticeably longer reach. Prates continues to bounce around just outside of range, hands at his waist, before popping into the pocket with single strikes or pairs of punches. Della Maddalena scores with a three-piece, but eats a couple of hard shots on the counter. Prates scores with a hard body kick, then meets Della Maddalena’s next entry with a nasty knee up the middle. Thus far, Della Maddalena has worn the punches and kicks well, but he’s taken a lot of damage this round. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown with 30 seconds left in the round and gets it easily, landing in full guard near the fence. He can’t get off any offense of note before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 2
Della Maddalena comes forward to open the second frame, swinging two-handed combinations at the body. Prates slips out the side before Della Maddalena can trap him against the fence, and meets his next entry with a hard kick up the middle. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown and gets it, moving to Prates’ back as the Brazilian stands. Della Maddalena is fishing for a choke as the Perth crowd comes alive, but he doesn’t have good hooks in and he slides right over the top. They go back to work on the feet and it’s Prates who scores with some long, straight jabs and crosses. Della Maddalena wades into the pocket and lands a hard uppercut and hook, then shoves Prates to the fence. He lands a few strikes in the clinch, then disengages. Della Maddalena hurts Prates with a punch, then gets caught with a clean counter as he tries to follow up. Della Maddalena is hurt! Prates tees off with a kick, then a pair of punches, as Della Maddalena staggers back into the fence. Prates is looking to finish, but Della Maddalena comes off the fence with a solid right hand. Under 30 seconds to go in the round and Della Maddalena appears to have recovered his wits, but Prates puts him down with a brutal leg kick right before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 3
Della Maddalena, after a stern talking-to by his corner, is the aggressor to open Round 3. He comes forward with a feint, then a pair of punches, but Prates avoids any real damage. Della Maddalena essays a double-leg takedown, but Prates sprawls all over it and Della Maddalena bails quickly. Prates lights Della Maddalena up with an intercepting knee and several flush punches, punctuated by a vicious kick to the lead leg. Prates drops Della Maddalena with a high kick that blasts through the Aussie’s raised guard. Rather than swarm on the ground, he lets Della Maddalena back up, then goes right back to work sniping with big single shots.
Della Maddalena wears the head and body shots, but goes right back down after the next leg kick. This time, Prates smells blood in the water, and he pours on elbows until Beltran is left no option but to rescue the hometown fighter.
Extremely impressive work from “The Nightmare.”

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Jack Della Maddalena R3 3:17 via TKO (Leg Kicks and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.

Odds mentioned as -110; no bet size.
"JDM is the pick. These odds are crazy. It's like minus 110."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.

Prates by KO, round 3
"Give me Prachazka here. I'll take Prachazka to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.

"I get Jack Matalena because he's slight plus money."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.

"I have a slight lean towards Protest, but like J if JDM wins this fight, I'm not going to be surprised if Protest puts him out."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.

"I think Prates is the better striker... in the even money odds range, it's a no-brainer to kind of lean towards him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.

"I lean Carlos as a more of a knockout artist... I think Carlos is going to win the fight and get a title shot next."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.

Knockout win
"I have to side to the pace side. I think his Muay Thai is going to be a little bit more dangerous here. And I think he's more prone to be able to get a finish compared to what Matalena …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul picks Carlos Prates, calling him a 'Paul Shag guy' and citing his power and ability to win moments. He questions Jack's ability to handle Prates' reach and power, and notes Prates' unorthodox lifestyle might help with time zone adjustment.

"Prattis for me, Jack Dela for you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.

TKO in round three or four, body shots
"I'm going to go with Jack Della Maddalena by round three or four TKO over Carlos Prochazka."
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 61 29% 30 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 30 of 57 52% 140 of 188 4 of 4 100% 0 0 19:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 4 of 18 22% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 3 of 8 37% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:52
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 9 of 17 52% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 11 of 18 61% 32 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
4 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 7 of 12 58% 30 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
5 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 0 of 2 0% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 61 29% 10 of 45 6 of 12 2 of 4 14 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 30 of 57 52% 14 of 40 6 of 7 10 of 10 20 of 41 3 of 4 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 3 of 8 37% 0 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jack Della Maddalena 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 9
3 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 4 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 11 9% 0 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)

The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 318 41% 155 of 349 3 of 9 33% 0 0 3:21
Jack Della Maddalena 0 178 of 342 52% 200 of 364 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jack Della Maddalena 0 28 of 61 45% 28 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 63 33% 21 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Della Maddalena 0 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 32 of 79 40% 32 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 34 of 76 44% 35 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
4 Belal Muhammad 0 31 of 65 47% 35 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 33 of 59 55% 51 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Belal Muhammad 0 27 of 62 43% 46 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:32
Jack Della Maddalena 0 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 318 41% 119 of 297 11 of 18 2 of 3 116 of 295 14 of 21 2 of 2
Jack Della Maddalena 178 of 342 52% 113 of 254 47 of 65 18 of 23 167 of 326 11 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 21 of 49 42% 15 of 40 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 28 of 61 45% 14 of 39 7 of 11 7 of 11 27 of 58 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 21 of 63 33% 19 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 30 of 63 47% 16 of 45 10 of 14 4 of 4 29 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 32 of 79 40% 29 of 74 3 of 5 0 of 0 29 of 76 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 34 of 76 44% 20 of 58 10 of 14 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 31 of 65 47% 30 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 54 5 of 10 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 59 55% 27 of 48 4 of 8 2 of 3 32 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 27 of 62 43% 26 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 53 of 83 63% 36 of 64 16 of 18 1 of 1 45 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Muhammad (-192), Della Maddalena (+160)

Round 1
Sometimes, a champion does not defend their throne against the top contender, but rather the top contender that is available at the time. This welterweight headliner will see Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC; 15-3, 1 NC UFC) put his belt on the line for the first time, and he meets Della Maddalena (17-2, 7-0 UFC) for all the marbles in a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level. Referee Jason Herzog will be the third man in the Octagon for a match that could very well go 25 hard minutes, and he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Della Maddalena immediately takes to the center of the cage, where he jabs his way forward. Muhammad responds with a body shot, and Della Maddalena jabs him up. Della Maddalena kicks and punches his way forward, beating the champ to the punch. Muhammad responds with his own jab and a high kick that makes Della Maddalena spin around, from momentum and not damage. They flick jabs at one another, with Della Maddalena the more active of the two. Della Maddalena picks and pokes, and Della Maddalena responds with a power right hand. He lands a second, getting the challenger’s attention. The Aussie keeps his guard up to block a trio of punches coming his way, and kicks the champ upside the head and lances him with a left hand. A right hand from Della Maddalena stings Muhammad with a right hand up top, and he gets jabbed back and eats a right hand that follows. Della Maddalena’s leg kick lands a few times here and there when not landing up top, and he chains a low kick into one high. Della Maddalena sneaks in a left hand, and he nails the front leg with another kick. Muhammad lunges and cannot reach his man, but he sells out and shoots for something. He bails on it to drill Della Maddalena with a punch flurry, and his head kick at the end gets in. Muhammad dodges a knee and pushes out his own jab, and he rips a left to the body and kicks the same spot. They crash together, letting loose elbows that hurt the other, and then back off. One missed hook kick from the champ concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Della Maddalena begins the second stanza aggressively with kicks aimed at all targets, and he pulls back when Muhammad starts to put a jab together. Muhammad rifles off a right hand, and when Della Maddalena ducks, the champ punts him in the head. Della Maddalena’s crooked nose stays crooked as a result, and he reaches out a right hand in response. The toes of the challenger stab into his foe’s midsection, who sits in the pocket and looks for hooks from up close. Della Maddalena drives home a one-two that sends a gob of spit flying from Muhammad’s mouth, and Muhammad takes it flush and does not waver. Instead, Muhammad evades a front kick and lashes out with punches. They take turns attacking one another, until Muhammad breaks up the back-and-forth striking with a takedown shot. Della Maddalena shrugs it off, and he blocks a high kick that he knows is coming. Muhammad loops a few left hands out while trying to wrap them around the jab, and he kicks the challenger in the side that is already showing some welting. Muhammad punches his way into a takedown, and when it fails, he lands a few punches but gets caught on the way out. Muhammad catches Della Maddalena with a left hand when circling away, and he parries a front kick and comes up short by a matter of inches with his hooks. Della Maddalena jabs to the body, and Muhammad whacks him upside the head with a hard right hand. Della Maddalena responds with a combination that busts Muhammad’s nose open, and blood is quick to flow. Muhammad tries a spinning back fist, and Della Maddalena mocks him with one of his own before attempting an earnest wheel kick that brushes past the beard. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
The third round opens up as both men launch punches at one another, with Muhammad landing the better in the early exchange. Della Maddalena bites down on his mouthpiece to let his fists fly, and the third and fourth in a combination knock the champ’s head around. Della Maddalena dodges and sways when Muhammad returns fire, exaggerating his movement as he is feeling himself in there. Della Maddalena jabs the body with his foot, and kicks the lead shoulder. Muhammad responds in kind, and he laughs off a faked takedown effort from the Aussie. Muhammad punches his way forward, but he backs off before landing anything of merit. Instead, it is Della Maddalena who connects, with a right hand. Muhammad walks him down and connects a few times, but his nose gets further bloodied up by the speedy hands of the challenger. Della Maddalena chips at the calf, and he leans back as a right hand buzzes his temple. Della Maddalena jabs a few times, and Muhammad steels himself and launches a big right. Della Maddalena takes it flush and keeps on rolling, jabbing to the head and body as he keeps things mixed up. He rings the champ’s bell with a right hand, who then gives him back a left hook to think about. Muhammad pushes out a knee that bounces off the guard, and he chambers and fires a huge right hand that does not fluster his foe in the least. Muhammad runs forward, ignoring the jabs to let bigger punches go. This succeeds to a degree, until the boxer tags him with a right hand. Della Maddalena then scores a left as he backs away, in his element, strafing and swaying as he glides around. Muhammad walks him down and busts him in the face, and Della Maddalena laughs them off and throws back hammers. Muhammad shoots for a takedown, and he leans against his foe when he does not get it. Della Maddalena defends it and tries for his own, and Muhammad elbows him in the side and back of the head. Muhammad is warned for the strikes as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 4
Shockingly, the champion might need a finish as they enter the fourth frame, and given Muhammad’s 25% stoppage rate, it might be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, he tries hard right out of the gate, practically sprinting at the challenger and landing heavy punches. Della Maddalena lets him do this and backs away to the wall to rebound off of it, but his jabs are not deterring Muhammad any longer. Muhammad marks up the bridge of Della Maddalena’s nose, swinging with big uppercuts and getting caught on the way in. The champ shoots for a takedown, and he lets it go to unload with a massive combination of uppercuts. Della Maddalena pays him back with his own power shots, spraying the blood from Muhammad’s face all around the cage floor. Muhammad uses his pressure to push on Della Maddalena and try to take him down, and he aims a knee to the dome that is legal while Della Maddalena is leaned over. Della Maddalena succeeds in defending the takedown and spins his man around, and Muhammad breaks and lets loose a short stream of uppercuts. Della Maddalena walks him down, walks through an uppercut and ignores a jab so that he can measure his own shots. Muhammad swings wildly with a right hand and back fist after it, and Maddalena jabs and dodges. Muhammad shoots for a double, and Della Maddalena shuts him down and turns Muhammad to the wire. Muhammad spins him around and looks for a head kick up close, but he cannot keep Della Maddalena on the fence. A left hand from Muhammad blows open Della Maddalena’s cauliflower ear, and Della Maddalena responds with a right hand. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
Muhammad plods forward to commence the final frame, taking a deep breath and jabbing Della Maddalena around the cage. Muhammad rips a kick to the body, and he swings punches that bang into his foe’s forehead. Muhammad keeps heavy pressure, dodging a one-two and coming out swinging with a pair of right hooks. Della Maddalena staggers him with three left hands, and he skips to the side and intercepts Muhammad with a vicious knee that shreds a cut open on the corner of Muhammad’s eye. Rather than think about it, he blasts Della Maddalena with a counter, and he shoots for a takedown and finally lands it. Positioning himself in half guard, Muhammad smothers with his shoulder pressing the Aussie down. The champ hammers down with ground-and-pound, his blood covering Della Maddalena’s chest, which allows him to slip around and explode back to his feet. Della Maddalena’s eye swells up quickly from the damage inflicted, and Muhammad runs at him with his fists flying. Della Maddalena backs him off for a second with a front kick, and they proceed to hack at one another with elbows. Della Maddalena clubs the champion with a left, a right and a few more punches as he has “Remember the Name” rocked. Della Maddalena clinches up for a second before letting loose with body shots, and he tries a takedown and gets thrown to the ground. Muhammad scrambles to push Della Maddalena to his back, where he frantically lashes out with punches and elbows. Della Maddalena protects himself by putting his head between Muhammad’s legs, and he bursts back to his feet. Muhammad leans him against the cage and tries to get him down, but Della Maddalena pushes him away and kicks him in the head. The Aussie drills Muhammad with a punch combo that staggers him badly, but he peels back rather than trying to finish the job. He re-engages, and Muhammad is ready for him throwing hammers. Della Maddalena does the same right to the final bell, and the two welterweights go the distance in a thriller that few expected would turn out this way. There may be a new champion crowned, but either way, Muhammad shed part of his reputation of being boring with that 25-minute banger.
The scores are read, and just like that, the Muhammad era is over before he could defend it once. Australia has a new champion in the form of hard-nosed brawler Della Maddalena, who stepped up to the plate and exceeded all expectations with that performance. The Contender Series has another champion from its ranks, with Della Maddalena pushing his phenomenal win streak to 18 thanks to his likely bonus-winning battle. Because of this result, lightweight king Islam Makhachev is going to move up and be the first to challenge Della Maddalena soon, while Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira—possibly for an interim title—on International Fight Week. The confident new champion declares that he will "get one back for Volk" against Makhachev. We will be here for those terrific matchups, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (48-47 Della Maddalena)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.

"I'm going to trust the process here. I do think Bal wins. Not only is he a smart guy who understands the dangers of striking, but he also carries the wrestling reputation with him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.

"Give me Blow. Give me Balao. Give me Blow to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.

"I think Muhammad's grappling style and high pressure, high pace will be too much for the striker in Matelena to keep up with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.

second round TKO
"I'm going with JDM. I'm going with JDM. That's what I'm doing. The boys are taking this one. JDM's getting it done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
KO (knee and elbows) R3 3:43 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 58 46% 31 of 63 7 of 11 63% 0 0 5:07
Gilbert Burns 1 67 of 123 54% 85 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 35 51% 20 of 37 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:15
Gilbert Burns 0 18 of 38 47% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:13
Gilbert Burns 1 28 of 37 75% 35 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 58 46% 16 of 43 8 of 11 3 of 4 23 of 52 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 67 of 123 54% 54 of 104 9 of 15 4 of 4 47 of 100 4 of 6 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 35 51% 9 of 23 7 of 9 2 of 3 14 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 48 43% 15 of 36 5 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 28 of 37 75% 26 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 16 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)

Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.

Half unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
"Jack manalan is going to win this fight he's going to piece him up do whatever he wants to do on the feet and defend the takedowns Jack manalan is the pick and I have a half a unit bet …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going Jack Dela Melina by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.

"if you're looking for underdogs you do a lot worse than Gilbert Burns I he's live at that plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.

"I bet him at minus 135 got the best of it well the best of it in terms of like you know he's gonna close What minus 180 to whatever"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.

"I haven't ever picked against Jack Della Maddalena and I don't plan on starting."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.

"Yeah me too give me Jack as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.

Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3
"I think that Melina should win this fight I think that this is a matchup where we'll see Burns stying to show the decline in his career and showcasing that he can't compete with the guys that are deserving of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.

"it's Gilbert Burns for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.

TKO late round one
"I'm going to go JDM tkoos burns up against the cage late round one"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 127 of 356 35% 127 of 356 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 105 of 190 55% 105 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 40 of 111 36% 40 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 41 of 69 59% 41 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 49 of 127 38% 49 of 127 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 34 of 61 55% 34 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 38 of 118 32% 38 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 30 of 60 50% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 127 of 356 35% 59 of 258 33 of 55 35 of 43 119 of 346 8 of 10 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 105 of 190 55% 46 of 115 36 of 49 23 of 26 94 of 175 11 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 40 of 111 36% 15 of 76 11 of 18 14 of 17 36 of 105 4 of 6 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 41 of 69 59% 19 of 42 14 of 18 8 of 9 34 of 60 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 49 of 127 38% 27 of 97 10 of 16 12 of 14 46 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 34 of 61 55% 10 of 34 14 of 17 10 of 10 33 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 38 of 118 32% 17 of 85 12 of 21 9 of 12 37 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 30 of 60 50% 17 of 39 8 of 14 5 of 7 27 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-148), Holland (+124)

Round 1
Ranked welterweights cross paths in the compelling co-main event, as Della Maddalena (15-2, 5-0 UFC) puts his remarkable 15-fight winning streak on the line in arguably his toughest test to date. The 30-year-old Holland (25-9, 12-6 UFC) boasts 21 finishes among his 25 career victories. Jason Herzog draws the officiating assignment. Della Maddalena lunges forward with jabs and hammers home a leg kick. Holland answers with a leg kick of his own, stays light on his feet and looks to penetrate the Aussie’s defenses with punches down the middle. Della Maddalena attacks the body with hooks and tries to stay close to the Texan, hoping to negate a significant reach advantage. They engage one another at close range in the center of the cage, trading elbows and punches that draw oohs and aahs from the crowd. Holland punctuates a combination with a left hook. Della Maddalena responds with a right hand over the top. Holland stays busy with his kicks, zeroing in on the legs, body and occasionally the head. Della Maddalena scores with a body-head volley in the waning seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Holland paws with his jab but lands nothing of significance. Della Maddalena sneaks in a leg kick, closes the distance and connects with a right hand upstairs. Holland answers with front kicks to the body and push kicks to the legs. This has the makings of a nip-tuck affair that could go either way. A short counter right lands for Holland, who rolls with punches as the Aussie tries to return fire. Della Maddalena struggling to generate enough output. Holland stays busy with his hands and feet. He doubles and triples up on his jab. Della Maddalena punctuates a combination with a leg kick. Holland shoots on a takedown and bails on it, with both men throwing elbows on the exit. Holland clips his opponent with a right hook at close range, catches a kick and nearly dumps the Aussie to the canvas as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
Della Maddalena opens the third round with a clubbing right hand that forces “Trailblazer” to retreat and circle. Holland keeps his composure and threatens with kicks. He leans on his jab and connects with a spinning reverse elbow, but it fails to make much of an impact. Della Maddalena cuts loose with punches, and while he lands a few of them, most miss the mark. The Aussie is the more active participant through the first half of the period. Holland is not hitting the accelerator, even though he needs to. Della Maddalena appears to be blocking a majority of his shots. The crowd boos for some reason. Della Maddalena answers every Holland strike with two, three and four of his own. Holland starting to pick up the pace, but it looks to be a case of too little too late. Della Maddalena delivers a pair of short-range elbows just before the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (30-27 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Kevin Holland—Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo leans Kevin Holland, acknowledging possible recency bias. He notes Holland's power, accuracy, and experience against top competition. He thinks Holland's size and striking could be the difference. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential bet and will monitor the line.

over 2.5 rounds considered
"I am going to lean Holland it might be recency bias I'm hoping it's not and I just think it's going to come down to I know how tough Holland is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Holland but with very low confidence, acknowledging Holland's poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of grapple. He notes Holland's advantages in size, reach, experience, and grappling, but expects Holland to strike and potentially get outpointed. He predicts Holland will hurt Della Maddalena on the feet and find a submission in the second round.

second round submission
"I think I'm gonna go with Kevin Holland here with with little to no confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody also picks Kevin Holland, emphasizing the reach advantage and Holland's experience against top competition. He notes that Della Maddalena's ring IQ was questionable against Hafez, and that Holland's BJJ and durability make him a live dog. Cody believes Holland's power translates well at 170 and that Della Maddalena may struggle to get inside. He considers this a 'dog or pass' situation and likes the value.

"I'm also GNA take Holland but by or beware... I just think the numberers too good on Kevin Holland dog money."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Levi is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, having bet him at plus-100 earlier. He dismisses recency bias from Della's fight with Hafez, noting Hafez attempted 20 takedowns while Holland rarely wrestles. He believes Della's pressure and body work will overwhelm Holland, who struggles when pressured. Levi trusts Della's durability and sees this as a range battle where Della can cut off the cage and force Holland to fight going backward.

bet at plus-100, now minus-145; could hedge on Holland for profit
"I'm gonna ride it out on Jack Dilla and here's why"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland has improved defensive grappling and a sniper-like striking game with range. Della Maddalena is a crisp boxer but struggled with wrestling in his last fight. Holland can use his jab and straight shots to keep distance, and may mix in grappling after learning from the Wonderboy fight. I think Holland has more paths to victory and will win a close decision, handing Della Maddalena his first UFC loss.

"give me the underdog shot here on Holland who I think he has more paths to Victory here and I think he has a good enough striking game to compete against Elena make this close... I think it ends up …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Kevin Holland as an underdog, citing Holland's 8-inch reach advantage, better submission grappling, and improved wrestling at 170 lbs. He notes that Jack Della Maddalena's wins are against lower-level opponents and that he struggled with Basil Hafez's takedowns. Paul believes Holland's durability and power will be key, and that Della Maddalena may not find the same openings against a longer, more experienced fighter.

"I bet Kevin Holland and you know me historically Kevin Holland hater... I'll take the bigger opponent with decent enough grappling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Kevin Holland, stating the odds were wrong to have him as an underdog. He believes Holland won't grapple, which benefits JDM's striking. He envisions Holland backed against the cage using a Philly shell and JDM landing a liver shot for a TKO. He notes Holland's weight cut to welterweight and JDM's power in his hands.

TKO via liver shot, late first or second round
"I'm gonna go with Jack Della madalena over Kevin Holland"
WIN vs Bassil Hafez
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 83 of 137 60% 149 of 212 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Bassil Hafez 0 32 of 124 25% 48 of 141 3 of 20 15% 0 1 6:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 13 of 26 50% 41 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Bassil Hafez 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 31 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:19
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 43 62% 47 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Bassil Hafez 0 16 of 56 28% 29 of 70 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 43 of 68 63% 61 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
Bassil Hafez 0 7 of 40 17% 7 of 40 0 of 9 0% 0 1 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 83 of 137 60% 55 of 104 27 of 32 1 of 1 68 of 119 14 of 17 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 32 of 124 25% 29 of 117 2 of 6 1 of 1 28 of 118 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 13 of 26 50% 9 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 9 of 28 32% 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 43 62% 17 of 31 9 of 11 1 of 1 24 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 16 of 56 28% 15 of 53 1 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 43 of 68 63% 29 of 52 14 of 16 0 of 0 32 of 55 10 of 12 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 7 of 40 17% 6 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bassil Hafez vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-625), Hafez (+440)

Round 1
Dead-set on getting a fight to not waste this training camp, Australia’s Maddalena (14-2, 4-0 UFC) stayed in Las Vegas and draws a late notice debuting opponent in the form of Hafez (8-3-1, 0-0 UFC). The biggest betting favorite in the card, Maddalena aims to improve his win streak to 15 while hunting for his 14th stoppage. On the other side, Philadelphia-trained Hafez has never been finished. This sport is wild and anything can happen, and referee Mark Smith is standing by in case it does. The two rush out of their corners with no interest in a glove touch, and Hafez is a man on a mission. Hafez shoots in for a double, and he puts the Aussie right on his back. Maddalena defends with a guillotine choke, and Hafez steps over properly to stop the choke from being tight while passing guard. Maddalena turns to his knees and returns upright to his feet, and he counter hip tosses Hafez back down. Hafez manages to reverse this when they land on their knees together, and he holds on from the side while keeping his weight on Maddalena. Maddalena leans up against the fence, and he manages to turn about and works the body. Hafez lands an elbow on the break as he backs off, and Hafez sticks his man with a left hand. Hafez slings a kick, and he topples over. The newcomer springs back up, and he backs up against the wall and trades furious leather, even catching Maddalena. Hafez gets popped, and he changes levels to secure a takedown and plant the heavy favorite on his back. Maddalena once more works to his knees and gets vertical, and he marches Hafez down and throws hands. Hafez catches him with a counter, but Maddalena lands the better strikes to force a telegraphed shot from his opponent. Maddalena defends it, and Hafez eventually bails on it instead of expending more energy. Maddalena clips Hafez behind the ear, and he strings a few punches together but eats some powerful blows right back at him. Hafez shoots in for a takedown, lifting Maddalena off his feet and fighting out of the guillotine choke that inevitably comes. Hafez, in half guard, leans down his shoulder with an arm-triangle choke that does not have the leverage he wishes. The round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hafez

Round 2
Looking to make up ground, Maddalena starts out aggressively. Hafez times a takedown early, and Maddalena staves it off and looks to take the back. Both stand up, and Hafez kicks the body as he backs off. Maddalena crowds Hafez and shucks a takedown to the side. Hafez times a spinning back fist when recovering, and Maddalena ignores it so that he can throw punches. Hafez sits down on a left hand, and they proceed to nail one another. Hafez knocks Maddalena back in a wild exchange, and Maddalena is landing too but not flustering Hafez one iota. Maddalena aims a front kick to the body, and he loops a right hand around the guard. Maddalena shuts down a takedown as he backpedals from one side of the cage to the other. Maddalena gets out of the tie-up and starts opening up with his punches, leaning Hafez over and kneeing him in the face. Hafez appears to be running out of steam, as Maddalena works the body several times and opens right and left hands over the top. Hafez takes a knee to the side as he leans over, and he gathers himself to wing hooks that miss the mark. Maddalena stifles a leaping double, and he wrenches his arm around the neck and drops back for a guillotine choke. Hafez welcomes this, as he is not in danger and it allows him to crawl on top and catch his wind. Hafez shifts his weight over to grip down on an arm-triangle choke, and he hops to the side to get a better angle. Maddalena grabs hold of his own foot, and Hafez moves back to half guard. Hafez isolates Maddalena’s left arm for a potential keylock, and he bumps his shoulder into Maddalena’s face. The round ends with Hafez on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena

Round 3
The last round opens, and it could be even on the scorecards. Maddalena wants to keep the judges out of the equation, coming out putting hands on face. Hafez misses with a high kick, whiffs with a superman punch, and absorbs a flush right hand. Maddalena sticks out a few jabs and lobs a left hand to follow, and Hafez rolls with it and drives Maddalena from one side of the cage to the other in pursuit of a double. When that fails, Hafez changes it for a single, and Maddalena pulls his leg out and resets. A cut has opened on the corner of his left eye, and he lets Hafez overswing so he can crack him with a left hand. “The Habibi” shoots for a double when getting tagged, and Maddalena shuts it down and a second try so that he can wobble Hafez with a right hand. Hafez tries to tie him up, and Maddalena pounds on the body. Maddalena gest clinched, and he pushes off so that he can kick Hafez and throw everything and the kitchen sink at the chin of his spent opponent. Hafez tries with all his might to get a takedown, and Maddalena stops it and beats on the body. Maddalena busts Hafez up with body shots, and he holds onto Hafez’ right hand so that he can slug him with his free hand. Hafez shoots in desperately with 100 seconds to go, and Maddalena lets him do this so that he can stop it and jump on his back. Maddalena fishes for a rear-naked choke, and he gets rolled over by the determined Hafez. As they scramble, Maddalena hunts for an armbar, and he elects to stand back up while Hafez hold on to head lock. Maddalena gets pushed back to the cage wall with a double, and Hafez grabs the fence to hold him there. Maddalena lowers his man down to the floor, and hangs on in this top position to end the fight. What a wild battle, easily the best fight on the card thus far. No matter the result, Hafez gave an incredible account of himself on short notice against a top contender. This is also a tough look for the ranked Maddalena, who might not even get his hand raised depending on the score of the second round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Bassil Hafez via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena, noting that while Hafez is a short-notice opponent with good wrestling and power, his cardio is poor and he gets hit a lot. He expects Della Maddalena to be the much better striker and to catch Hafez late in the first round. He acknowledges Hafez could have early success but doesn't think he can maintain the pace. He would not lay -550.

Late first round knockout; would not lay -550
"give me Jack Della late first round knockout this fight should be an absolute Banger there's a reason they move this to the co-main"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Della Maddalena, citing his combination punching, volume, and cardio. He thinks Della Maddalena runs circles around Hafez and has solid striking and grappling. He acknowledges the risk of a short-notice opponent but believes Della Maddalena is a future contender. He suggests a live bet on Hafez after the first round if you want to go the other way.

live bet on Hafez after first round
"I gotta back him here the same way I was gonna back him last week the same way I would back him against most of the guys of the division let alone a guy making his debut"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James mentions that Jack Della Maddalena has been added to the card but says he doesn't know anything about his opponent Bassil Hafez. He briefly notes Hafez's record and a draw with Jeremiah Wells but does not offer a pick or analysis.

"I don't know anything about this guy Liam"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Hafez as an underdog, citing his grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Hafez has never been knocked out and has good timing on counters. He thinks Hafez can mix in takedowns and make it closer than the line suggests. He acknowledges Della Maddalena is the better striker but sees value in the dog shot. He will wait for weigh-ins due to short notice.

"I'll pick a fez on the program which is crazy but... I don't hate the madalena fade uh as a as a concept here I don't think it's too too crazy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru confidently picks Jack Della Maddalena over Bassil Hafez, praising JDM's superior footwork, striking technique, and lack of telegraphing. He criticizes Hafez's split decision win over Anthony Ivy and notes he was tagged by Evan Cutts' jab. He predicts JDM wins by KO late in the first round.

KO late in the first round
"I've got to go with JDM getting his jab going early and eventually seeking the kill at the end of the first round where I think he's gonna get a KO win"
WIN vs Randy Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:13 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-315), Brown (+260)

Round 1
Two welterweights on solid win streaks will enter, and only one will leave with it intact. Since losing his first two pro outings, Maddalena (13-2, 3-0 UFC) has strung 13 wins in a row, while Brown (16-4, 10-4 UFC) has rattled off four straight in the Octagon. A spot in the top 15 and a big next matchup likely looms for the victor, but this is no easy ask for either man first. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the cage in this “featured fight of the night,” and there is no fist bump before it all goes down. Brown uses his reach right out of the gate, pushing out a long jab to split the guard of the heavy-handed Aussie. A rude chant rains down against Brown, who is fighting a Perth local. Brown stays on the outside with front kicks, jab, single strikes and accurate blows to not let Maddalena close in on him. Maddalena strikes the low calf a few times, and Brown pushes off with his fingers outstretched and is warned for this. Brown picks and pokes at his foe with reaching strikes, switching stances and scoring teep kicks while circling away from Maddalena’s power. Maddalena blazes forward, and with a fiery right hand he scorches his opponent behind the ear. The resounding blow separates Brown from his faculties, who falls face-first to the mat. Maddalena leaps on top to pound on Brown, delivering punishment with hammerfist after unanswered hammerfist. Brown works his way to the wall, but in the process, he surrenders his back. Maddalena latches on from behind, and he sinks both hooks in and simultaneously sets up the rear-naked choke. The two are still dry and Maddalena is at full strength, so his squeeze is undeniable and the choke is securely fastened. The roof positively blows off as Brown taps out, with Perth’s own putting a stamp on a terrific performance. In an interview where he can barely hear himself think, Maddalena calls for a ranked opponent when he comes back from holiday, and he hopes to fight again in front of a home crowd soon.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Randy Brown R1 2:13 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume jab and takedown defense. He notes that Randy Brown is a solid striker with reach and BJJ, but Jack's constant jab will disrupt Brown's rhythm. He warns that if Jack becomes a headhunter, Brown could find success, but he expects Jack to fight smart and win a decision.

"Jack's gonna be the pick he's probably a safe pick I just hope he fights his fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady is high on Della Maddalena, citing his power, hand speed, and forward pressure. He acknowledges Brown's length and durability concerns but thinks Della Maddalena will close the distance and knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think he does knock him out at some point in this fight he's gonna be jacked elementalina I'll take him to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody is high on Della Maddalena, praising his volume, body work, and boxing technique. He notes Della Maddalena has finished all his UFC opponents by working the body and then landing kill shots. He thinks Randy Brown is hittable and will struggle with Della Maddalena's pressure and body attack. Despite the -300 price, he likes Della Maddalena stylistically.

"I really like Jack Della and keep in mind I bet against him on his contended series debut... I was so unbelievably impressed with what I saw"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Connor picks Della Maddalena, citing his relentless pressure and body punching as key advantages. He notes that Brown has a tendency to abandon his game plan and engage in brawls, which plays into Della Maddalena's strengths. Connor also mentions that Della Maddalena's combination punching and ability to mix targets will overwhelm Brown, who is inconsistent defensively. He acknowledges that Brown could win if he fights smart, but expects him to revert to bad habits.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena's combination striking and power will be too much for Brown. He mixes targets well (head and body) and has shown finishing ability with body shots. Brown's length and movement may cause early issues, but Della Maddalena will close distance and land. Brown's defensive grappling is solid but Della Maddalena's discipline and patience will allow him to find the knockout within the first 10 minutes. Expect a round two KO.

"I think Jack will close that distance without too much issue get off his strikes and eventually find that knockout and put Randy Brown out probably within the first 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Paul agrees Della Maddalena is a rightful favorite, noting Brown is hittable and has been knocked down before. He mentions Brown's close fights and high strikes absorbed. However, he avoids betting -300 lines and thinks inside the distance is already minus money, so he'll pass on betting.

"I think Jack Della is a rightful favorite in this spot uh I don't really play minus 300s and these types of positions"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown, praising his unique boxing style and head movement. He expects a first-round TKO via body-head combinations against the cage. He notes Brown has been finished recently and is older, but admits the odds are too high and sees some value in Brown.

first round TKO; odds comment: should be -180, not -250
"I gotta go with him winning this one and finishing Randy Brown by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Zane also picks Della Maddalena, emphasizing his pressure and body work. He notes that Brown is prone to getting distracted and fighting his opponent's fight, which will be fatal against a relentless fighter like Della Maddalena. Zane highlights that Della Maddalena's ability to mix punches to the body and head will exploit Brown's tall frame. He also mentions that Brown's best chance is to keep the fight at range, but he likely won't maintain that discipline.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
WIN vs Danny Roberts
TKO (punches) R1 3:24 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 2 33 of 60 55% 41 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Danny Roberts 0 5 of 33 15% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 2 33 of 60 55% 41 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Danny Roberts 0 5 of 33 15% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 60 55% 23 of 41 9 of 16 1 of 3 27 of 50 2 of 2 4 of 8
Danny Roberts 5 of 33 15% 2 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 60 55% 23 of 41 9 of 16 1 of 3 27 of 50 2 of 2 4 of 8
Danny Roberts 5 of 33 15% 2 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Danny Roberts
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-490), Roberts (+330)

Round 1
The fists are sure to fly in this welterweight affair. Winner of 12 straight fights, with 11 going down inside the distance, Maddalena (12-2, 2-0 UFC) is keen on rising up the rankings fast. His next test comes in the form of British brawler Roberts (18-6, 7-5 UFC), who will almost certainly meet him in the middle. For as long as this match lasts, referee Mart Smith will be here for it. Like most of the fights thus far, there is no glove touch to initiate the proceedings. Maddalena measures himself, and he works his way in to close the distance and smack Roberts in the face with a right hand. Roberts tries to back him off with kicks, but Maddalena is on him with a fire and a fury. Maddalena rips the body in the midst of a lengthy combination, but Roberts has the wherewithal to dodge a high kick. As he dips down, he eats a knee on the chin, and his knees wobble but he keeps his bearings. As Roberts escapes, Maddalena gives chase and slams his fists into the face of his adversary. The Brit topples to the mat in big trouble, and Maddalena climbs down in hopes of finishing the job. Roberts protects himself from further harm and fights back to his feet. Maddalena is there to meet him with punches and a high kick, but the latter gets blocked. The Aussie lines up a knee and a right hook, and Roberts is taking a pounding but still in the fight. Roberts swings with a few looping shots before charging in from across the cage for a double, and Maddalena defends it with the wall to his back. Roberts checks a kick, and he unloads a combination of brutalizing blows.
Roberts backs up to the wall, and Maddalena swarms him with a long salvo that breaks Roberts with a left to the liver. Roberts’ legs give way beneath him, and Maddalena only needs a few pulverizing punches until Smith has seen enough and calls it.
This stellar performance for the man that has now won 13 fights in a row makes him absolutely one to watch in the welterweight division, and he calls for a fight at UFC 284 against anyone who will take it in his home city of Perth, Australia, in February.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Danny Roberts R1 3:24 via TKO (Punches)
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.

"I'm going to trust the process here. I do think Bal wins. Not only is he a smart guy who understands the dangers of striking, but he also carries the wrestling reputation with him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.

"Give me Blow. Give me Balao. Give me Blow to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.

"I think Muhammad's grappling style and high pressure, high pace will be too much for the striker in Matelena to keep up with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.

second round TKO
"I'm going with JDM. I'm going with JDM. That's what I'm doing. The boys are taking this one. JDM's getting it done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."