UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 8"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - José Aldo
3.65 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.81 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
92.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Aiemann Zahabi
4.54 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.08 SApM
69.0% Str. Def.
0.12 TD Avg
14.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
José Aldo - Fight History
LOSS vs Aiemann Zahabi
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 1 68 of 167 40% 71 of 170 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 99 of 199 49% 109 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 1 20 of 36 55% 23 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 52 of 87 59% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 68 of 167 40% 48 of 135 13 of 25 7 of 7 67 of 166 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 99 of 199 49% 79 of 167 14 of 22 6 of 10 66 of 151 8 of 11 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 23 of 59 38% 12 of 42 6 of 12 5 of 5 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 21 of 46 45% 15 of 39 4 of 5 2 of 2 18 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 25 of 72 34% 17 of 62 6 of 8 2 of 2 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 26 of 66 39% 19 of 50 3 of 8 4 of 8 25 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 20 of 36 55% 19 of 31 1 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 52 of 87 59% 45 of 78 7 of 9 0 of 0 23 of 44 4 of 6 25 of 37
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldo (-218), Zahabi (+180)

Round 1
A day and a half ago, the “featured fight of the night” slot was booked as a bantamweight affair. Elder statesman and beloved champ Aldo (32-9, 14-8 UFC) could not get close to 136 pounds, so he and Zahabi (12-2, 6-2 UFC) agreed to bump it up to featherweight to keep it together due to strange Canadian weight regulations. In what could be a passing of the torch match—this could be said about the last five fights or so for the ex-WEC champ—referee Dan Miragliotta will be installed as the cage commander. The two relieved fighters who did not have to cut nearly as much weight as they expected bump fists to get the fight started. Aldo marches forward, guard high, and Zahabi circles all the way around him. Aldo keeps following his foe, neither man throwing a strike of merit for the first 50 seconds. Aldo finally lands a jab, but it is just one jab. Zahabi jabs him back, and Aldo responds with a speedy head kick that bounces into his foe’s armpit. Zahabi jumps in and out to strike, and Aldo lets go with a body kick and two hooks. Aldo cracks the Canadian with a right hand, sending Zahabi back in a hurry. He lands another right hand, and lifts up a knee to counter something that does not get to him. Zahabi gets off two punches, and Aldo does not even register them and loads up a right hand that bangs into the Canadian’s head. Zahabi reaches his foe with a body kick, and Aldo continues marching forward without fear. Aldo lifts his knee up to block a high kick, and he jabs with the ball of his foot extended. Aldo rips the body with two punches, and Zahabi’s guard lower as he frowns. Aldo doubles up on a jab to strike with a right hand, and he gets countered and sways to avoid the worst of them. Aldo counters Zahabi coming in with a hook, and he jabs the body when he notices Zahabi is not retaliating. Aldo scores a mighty low kick, and Zahabi walks towards him to score a pair of punches. Zahabi flashes a grin, and he splits the guard with a few jabs and a couple right hands. Aldo leans back and dodges several punches, and he engages with power offense of his own. Aldo uses a power jab to set up further punches, and he no-sells a left hook and fires one back. Aldo goes to the body, and Zahabi counters with a front kick and a punch. Aldo cracks him with a left hand, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
Zahabi starts off the round in a flurry, crashing the pocket and kneeing the former champ flush in the chest. Aldo forces him to settle down with a front kick to the midsection. Aldo flicks out a quick jab, and he sneaks in a low kick before Zahabi can get to him. Aldo checks a kick and swings for the fences, but the Canadian is able to escape them. Aldo checks a leg kick and snaps out his jab, intercepting his advancing opponent every time. Zahabi walks through a few to try to strike, and Aldo goes to the body and head. When Zahabi strikes back, Aldo is nowhere to be found. Aldo pounds the body with a right hand, and he takes a left hook on the forehead so he can rifle off a big hook of his own. Aldo slips a punch and has one scrape off his forehead, and they jab one another up. The former beltholder plays the matador, absorbing a single left hand and landing his own. Zahabi’s foot rises up in a combination, and his foot strikes the groin. He immediately apologizes, and Aldo knows it was totally by accident. They restart in a few seconds, with Zahabi cut on the side of his right eye. Aldo lets him come at him so he can counter, and he ducks a leaping left hand to sneak away. Zahabi kicks him square in the groin, and this time, Aldo is a little more irritated and takes some time, while saying “that’s two” to Miragliotta. Time is called, and Aldo is perturbed but they tap gloves to get going after 15 seconds and push ahead. Zahabi aims a kick much lower to avoid the groin, and he has another get checked. Aldo whips a body shot at him and looks to dodge a jab. Zahabi clips the former beltholder with a left hand, and Aldo pushes off with a front kick and a few jabs. Zahabi dings him with another left, and Aldo shakes his head. Aldo leaps in the air, landing a flying knee to the body at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the last round begins. Zahabi reintroduces himself with a one-two, beating Aldo to the punch with a few strikes until Aldo revs up his own engine and stinging the Canadian. Aldo lets Zahabi fly past him, but when Zahabi resets, Zahabi lands three punches down the middle. Aldo shakes his head and drives a knee into his chest. Two body shots from the Brazilian land cleanly, and he ducks down and takes a left hand over the top along with a knee to the body. Aldo surges into action, hurting Zahabi with a knee, a right hand and a head kick that send him flying. Aldo punches his foe and drills Zahabi with a legal soccer kick, and Zahabi is all over the place and barely with it. Aldo chases after him and blasts him with another soccer kick, and Zahabi flops to his back and survives it. Miraculously, Zahabi is still in the fight, and he manages to stand back in front of Aldo, who is looking hard at the clock. The Brazilian is totally spent trying to force the finish, and suddenly momentum has shifted again. Zahabi pours it on, and he marches Aldo down and starts hurting him. A gassed Aldo shoots for a takedown, and Zahabi bowls him over and starts landing punches. Zahabi sits in Aldo’s guard, unleashing heavy punches and elbows. Zahabi continues to assault the former champ with unblocked elbows, and Aldo hangs on tight with nothing left to offer. Aldo keeps his hands up and breathes as hard as one can, and he clings to Zahabi while Zahabi offers more elbows. Zahabi complains that Aldo is holding his glove, and a moment of confusion leads to Zahabi hammering Aldo with more elbows. One slashing elbow shreds open a cut on the middle of Aldo’s forehead, and blood streams down his face immediately. Zahabi keeps pouring it on, looking to Miragliotta for a stoppage that is not yet to come. Every time Zahabi nails Aldo, he looks to Miragliotta. Aldo holds on to save himself and run out the clock, and Zahabi helps him back to his feet when the shocking match concludes. Both teams lift their fighters on their shoulders and parade them around the cage, embracing while held on the shoulders. What a fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.

Considering inside distance decision no action prop
"It is pretty clear that Jose is actually the better fighter. Even at his age, he is fast, he's clean, he's dangerous, he's durable, he's impossible to take down."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.

"I'm going to take Zahabi to win a very close competitive decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.

"I think Aldo, even in losses, has shown he is still very dangerous in the striking room."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo getting this one done. I'm going to say Jose Aldo gets a TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 77 of 139 55% 101 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 52 of 118 44% 80 of 151 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 14 of 38 36% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
3 José Aldo 0 30 of 43 69% 54 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 77 of 139 55% 41 of 96 26 of 33 10 of 10 70 of 132 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 118 44% 36 of 96 9 of 15 7 of 7 50 of 116 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 17 of 46 36% 5 of 30 6 of 10 6 of 6 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 15 of 34 44% 8 of 23 1 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 30 of 50 60% 15 of 34 11 of 12 4 of 4 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 14 of 38 36% 12 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 30 of 43 69% 21 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 16 of 38 6 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.

"I do think Jonathan Martinez wins this fight but I'm not going to bet on this fight I have too much respect and too much love for Jose Aldo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.

"I'm going to pick Jose Aldo here to pull off the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.

"I took him at plus 145 yesterday... just cuz I was like Martinez been fighting a lot of these Apex cards in front of nobody..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.

"official pick Martinez for you Martinez decision is the official pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.

"do you really want to pick against um Jose AO and Rio too as well like you never know oh yeah get like weird judges scorecards"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.

"I'll take Jonathan Martinez thinking Jose Aldo comes in not giving a [__] and that's why there officially for no play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.

knockout
"look for Aldo to March down Martinez and eventually knock him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.

Martinez by decision
"I got to go with Jonathan Martinez... Martinez just out works him with the volume..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.

body shot
"I'm going to say that Aldo puts him away with a body shot"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 38 of 67 56% 59 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 57 of 147 38% 135 of 230 0 of 16 0% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 16 of 49 32% 21 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 22 50% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 11 of 29 37% 62 of 84 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:54
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 30 of 69 43% 52 of 92 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 38 of 67 56% 11 of 35 21 of 25 6 of 7 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 57 of 147 38% 20 of 102 10 of 14 27 of 31 43 of 132 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 1 of 8 11 of 13 3 of 4 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 16 of 49 32% 2 of 31 3 of 4 11 of 14 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 22 50% 5 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 20 60% 5 of 12 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 30 of 69 43% 13 of 49 5 of 7 12 of 13 19 of 58 11 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.

Plans to hammer the 'most takedowns' prop bet on Merab Dvalishvili when it drops on BetOnline, similar to the Jason Witt bet.
"murab's gonna be the pick i'm gonna be rooting for jose aldo the entire time and i will gladly get this pick wrong"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.

Aldo by decision
"i like the dog here on jose auto i like him to stuff takedowns i know it's not going to be a very popular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.

"i think jose still again another one of these guys that's getting a little bit older but probably still has something left in the tank for underdog money in this close of a fight he's going to lose half the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.

Mentions that if it were a five-round fight he would confidently pick Merab, but as a three-round fight it's a toss-up. Says Aldo dog money has value because it could be a split decision.
"five round fight I'm confidently picking morab three-round fight it's it's uh it's like who's judging this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.

Aldo by knockout (+450) is mentioned. Also notes under 2.5 rounds (+175) and doesn't go to decision (+150).
"I like jose aldo on the spot and i'm doing my best to not get sucked into the whole aldo and how great he used to be."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"i'm gonna pick marab i think he does secure takedowns won't be touching this unless it's in a live betting market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
José Aldo

The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.

TKO in round 2
"tko in the second round for jose aldo the legend"
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 149 of 305 48% 193 of 350 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:08
Rob Font 2 86 of 161 53% 96 of 172 0 of 1 0% 1 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 36 of 90 40% 37 of 91 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:50
Rob Font 1 26 of 41 63% 27 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 José Aldo 0 48 of 89 53% 48 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 37 of 64 57% 46 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 12 of 29 41% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
4 José Aldo 0 10 of 20 50% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 1 10 of 12 83% 15 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:35
5 José Aldo 0 18 of 42 42% 35 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Rob Font 0 15 of 28 53% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 149 of 305 48% 94 of 238 38 of 48 17 of 19 135 of 289 6 of 8 8 of 8
Rob Font 86 of 161 53% 57 of 129 19 of 20 10 of 12 75 of 146 2 of 3 9 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 36 of 90 40% 21 of 72 12 of 14 3 of 4 36 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 26 of 41 63% 19 of 34 4 of 4 3 of 3 23 of 37 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 José Aldo 48 of 89 53% 23 of 60 13 of 17 12 of 12 48 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 23 of 51 45% 15 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 37 of 64 57% 29 of 55 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rob Font 12 of 29 41% 5 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1
4 José Aldo 10 of 20 50% 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Rob Font 10 of 12 83% 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3
5 José Aldo 18 of 42 42% 12 of 32 6 of 9 0 of 1 14 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Rob Font 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.

"i need to go with font here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rob Font

Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.

by decision; if anything, dog or pass for Jose Aldo at plus money
"i'll take rob font by decision but not too much confidence in that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.

"as of right now i think i'm gonna go slight edge towards the underdog jose aldo we'll see if anything changes but this is dog city and uh there's maybe an underdog in the main event here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.

"I think jose can sneak through three of these rounds come out here win this decision and show he's still relevant"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.

"i'm going with jose uh i don't love the play uh but i just think he's so savvy and such a veteran"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rob Font

I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.

Font by decision +195
"i am picking fond to win i think if you are playing font i think fought via decision is probably the best way to go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.

"i think if it comes down to a five rounds if aldo doesn't land like a liver shot something something really damaging uh doesn't really really attack those leg kicks early on i think he just gets out volume over …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo decision i'll say 4847 decision for jose aldo"
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 114 of 223 51% 114 of 223 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 75 of 179 41% 75 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 28 of 76 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 José Aldo 0 42 of 95 44% 42 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 47 of 68 69% 47 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 114 of 223 51% 74 of 168 32 of 47 8 of 8 114 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 75 of 179 41% 35 of 131 3 of 6 37 of 42 71 of 175 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 25 of 60 41% 13 of 40 12 of 20 0 of 0 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 28 of 76 36% 11 of 54 2 of 4 15 of 18 27 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 42 of 95 44% 32 of 78 9 of 16 1 of 1 42 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 33 of 71 46% 16 of 51 1 of 2 16 of 18 32 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 47 of 68 69% 29 of 50 11 of 11 7 of 7 47 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 14 of 32 43% 8 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 6 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Pedro Munhoz

Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.

"I have Munoz over Aldo... Jose Aldo is not 34 years old, Jose Aldo is 40 or higher... Munoz is like a younger, not as good Aldo... coming forward, lots of volume, tons of leg kicks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.

"I'm going to say that Munoz does win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.

Munhoz by decision, live betting after round 1
"i'm going to go with pedro moon is on this one i think jose aldo since dropping down his seemingly you know caught a second win his career is you know he's still a top contender he's just not a …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.

"I'm a slightly lean Pedro because of the output but man I would be lying if I said I was confident counting out a legend like Jose Aldo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.

Aldo by decision +180
"I like 34 year old aldo here against the guy in munoz who I think has kind of just been benefiting from that cody garbrandt knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.

under 2.5 rounds +175
"i'm interested potentially in the under here we'll see we'll see how these guys look on the scales this week but i think under two and a half rounds of plus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo here i think he's just too big"
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 44 of 70 62% 60 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:57
Marlon Vera 0 46 of 82 56% 92 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 19 of 29 65% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marlon Vera 0 16 of 29 55% 29 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:26
2 José Aldo 0 24 of 39 61% 25 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 28 of 50 56% 39 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:25
3 José Aldo 0 1 of 2 50% 7 of 8 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:53
Marlon Vera 0 2 of 3 66% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 44 of 70 62% 17 of 38 21 of 26 6 of 6 36 of 62 8 of 8 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 46 of 82 56% 8 of 33 11 of 15 27 of 34 34 of 69 12 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 19 of 29 65% 7 of 15 8 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 16 of 29 55% 2 of 10 0 of 3 14 of 16 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 24 of 39 61% 9 of 22 13 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 32 7 of 7 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 28 of 50 56% 5 of 21 11 of 12 12 of 17 18 of 40 10 of 10 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera

Round 1
This embarrassment of riches continues tonight, as all-time great Aldo (28-7, 10-6 UFC) faces rising star “Chito” Vera (29-8, 1 NC; 17-8, 1 NC UFC) at bantamweight. Aldo will attempt to earn his first win at 135 pounds in his third try, and he will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Miragliotta. The two strikers touch gloves, and it’s time to throw down. Vera starts off with a front kick, and Aldo slaps it out of the way but gets kicked in the leg. The former champ jabs the body, and Vera steps back to kick Aldo’s leg a few times. Aldo slings an overhand right, and he gets off a heavy leg kick like the days of old. Aldo checks a kick, and he absorbs a strike that makes him slip. Vera takes advantage of this to charge in and take the fight down, but Aldo keeps his balance and stands tall against the fence. “Chito” knees Aldo’s thigh a few times as he clings to Aldo, and the two trade short clinch strikes while Vera embraces the grind. Miragliotta calls on Vera to work, so Aldo reverses the position and pushes off, but gets slapped in the face by Vera. Vera lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Aldo stalks him down with a few jabs. Aldo digs to the body with a left hand at the end of a short combination, and Vera backpedals against the fence as he eats another liver shot. “Chito” hacks at Aldo’s leg with another kick, but Aldo completely ignores it and blocks a head kick. Aldo slams his right hand on Vera’s stomach, and a thudding leg kick follows suit. Aldo drills Vera with another leg kick, and Vera is already switching stances to avoid these strikes. Aldo fakes a leg kick to draw out a reaction, and he comes up short with a punch to the body. Vera crashes in to clinch, and Aldo spins him out and takes the center of the cage again. Aldo tattoos Vera’s midsection with another punch, and Vera responds with a head kick. Aldo replies in kind, and comes after it with a pounding leg kick that gives WEC fans something to cheer about. The round ends as Vera goes for a spinning kick to the head.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
A confident Vera comes out of his corner striking, but Vera is there to greet him with a few leg kicks. The former champ lets loose a right hand, and he picks away at his opponent with kicks. Aldo pierces the midsection with a right hand, and a kick makes Vera retreat and bounce off the fence. Aldo jabs and absorbs a body kick, but he wades through it to swing a hook from each hand. When Vera crashes in, Aldo is easily out of the way and shoves his man back. Vera scores a stern leg kick, and Aldo sits down on a body shot and a looping uppercut. When Vera commits to another low kick, Aldo is there to meet him with a few crushing body shots. Vera wears them well, but Aldo is back for more and even absorbs the end of a spinning back fist without issue. Vera pushes into a clinch to pursue a trip takedown, but the Brazilian keeps his footing as he knees the body repeatedly. Vera very nearly lands a takedown, but Aldo not only stays standing, but he knees Vera to the liver and the head on the way up. Aldo’s right to the body gets countered by a quick hook from Vera, and Vera presses forward to tie up Aldo again. Aldo is content to pepper away at the body with short shots, and Vera pays him back with a stern knee while keeping the ex-champ pinned to the fence. Vera lands a few body shots and an elbow over the top to break up the clinch and conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
The touch of gloves opens the round, but Vera is ready to throw leather. Aldo ducks a strike, and when “Chito” tries to clinch up, Aldo circles around and takes his back. Vera defends himself from a takedown with a no-look elbow, but Aldo drags him down and then hops on like a Brazilian backpack. Vera leans down while trying to shake off Aldo, but the Ecuadorian falls to his knees. Aldo sinks in the body lock as he fishes for a choke, and Vera fights the grip and keeps his neck clear. The former champ confers with his corner as he holds on to Vera’s back, switching arms for the choke but not finding anything. “Chito” grabs the gloves to stop Aldo from getting a choke locked up, until Miragliotta notices and tells Vera to knock it off. Aldo softens him up with a few punches, but Vera powers up to his knees. Aldo is still firmly in back control with a body triangle locked tightly, and Vera bounces Aldo into the cage to try to scrape him off. Vera walks across the cage to take Aldo away from his corner and into Vera’s, and he slams down to get the ex-champ off but Aldo does not loosen up. Aldo sticks to Vera’s back as Vera stands back up again, and he cannot break the grip no matter how hard he tries. Vera signals a thumbs-down to show his displeasure with the position, but the round ends with Aldo on him like a cheap suit. Barring some strange judging antics, Jose Aldo should finally have earned his first win in the bantamweight division, while snapping a lengthy win streak at 135 pounds for Vera.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo as a guaranteed win, arguing that Marlon Vera's win over Sean O'Malley was a fluke due to O'Malley's ankle injury. He believes Aldo, one of the best strikers of all time, will easily outclass Vera.

"jose aldo you're going to choose him that's a guaranteed win i mean marlon vera got a fluke win against sugar shawn o'malley"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo over Marlon Vera, arguing that Aldo's level of competition is far superior and that Vera is overhyped. He notes Aldo's 90% takedown defense and believes Vera cannot take him down, forcing a striking match where Aldo has the edge. Brady thinks the fight goes to decision and considers the decision prop a good look, as Vera has never been finished.

decision prop on Aldo, fight goes to decision, over 2.5 rounds
"i'm going to take jose aldo to win here by decision and um i think the decision props not a bad look"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host is extremely confident in Aldo, calling him his strongest play on the card. He believes Aldo's leg kicks, boxing, and body work will overwhelm Vera, who is a slow starter and has never faced anyone of Aldo's level. He notes the line is too close due to recency bias and expects Aldo to win inside the distance.

Aldo inside the distance via TKO
"i think he wipes the floor with marlon vera here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The Guru picks José Aldo, emphasizing that this is a three-round fight which favors Aldo's cardio. He notes Aldo's close fight with Yan and his wins over Stephens and Moicano. He believes Aldo's leg kicks and experience will be key, and that Vera's win over O'Malley was due to a fluke leg injury. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision for Aldo.

Mentions that if Dominick Cruz beats Casey Kenny, a fight between Aldo and Cruz could determine a title shot.
"i think aldo is going to win this fight in a competitive very fun fight of the night performance 29 28 to jose aldo"
LOSS vs Petr Yan
TKO (punches) R5 3:24 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 1 194 of 309 62% 258 of 376 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:50
José Aldo 0 83 of 157 52% 83 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 33 of 55 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
José Aldo 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Petr Yan 0 16 of 42 38% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 24 of 41 58% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Petr Yan 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 29 of 49 59% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Petr Yan 0 44 of 72 61% 56 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:05
José Aldo 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Petr Yan 1 62 of 68 91% 113 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:06
José Aldo 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 194 of 309 62% 150 of 256 35 of 44 9 of 9 99 of 201 9 of 11 86 of 97
José Aldo 83 of 157 52% 38 of 97 28 of 39 17 of 21 81 of 154 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 33 of 55 60% 21 of 42 10 of 11 2 of 2 17 of 36 0 of 0 16 of 19
José Aldo 14 of 39 35% 10 of 28 1 of 6 3 of 5 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 16 of 42 38% 11 of 35 3 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 24 of 41 58% 7 of 22 8 of 10 9 of 9 24 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 39 of 72 54% 27 of 56 10 of 14 2 of 2 35 of 68 4 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 29 of 49 59% 13 of 27 12 of 16 4 of 6 27 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Petr Yan 44 of 72 61% 32 of 58 9 of 11 3 of 3 28 of 52 5 of 7 11 of 13
José Aldo 15 of 27 55% 8 of 20 7 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Petr Yan 62 of 68 91% 59 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 59 of 65
José Aldo 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.

fourth round knockout
"i'm gonna pick yon i think he's going to put it on aldo all either all five rounds or get him out there late maybe that third fourth round ... give me yawn bye give me fourth round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.

predicts finish within three rounds
"I'm going with Peter yen and become the bantamweight champion by finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.

1-unit bet at +181
"I took a shot on him at one unit at plus 181"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.

"I think yang could go out there and double look double again I don't think our dough's gonna have the same urgency to get up when he knows he's in a five rounder and his cardio isn't the best the …"
Aiemann Zahabi - Fight History
SCHED vs Sean O'Malley
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

AJ thinks O'Malley will be too fast for Zahabi, out-boxing and out-kickboxing him. He notes Zahabi is a pressure boxer who is slower and worse at everything O'Malley does, and doesn't bring a serious wrestling threat. He expects O'Malley to get his win streak going.

"I think Ali is going to be a bit too fast for Zahabi. I think Ali out boxes him, out kickboxes him..."
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 1 56 of 152 36% 56 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aiemann Zahabi 0 81 of 152 53% 81 of 152 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marlon Vera 1 21 of 50 42% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aiemann Zahabi 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 24 of 62 38% 24 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 37 of 71 52% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 56 of 152 36% 30 of 107 14 of 26 12 of 19 55 of 150 1 of 2 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 81 of 152 53% 47 of 107 20 of 28 14 of 17 79 of 149 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 11 of 40 27% 3 of 25 4 of 9 4 of 6 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 20 of 37 54% 11 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 4 19 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marlon Vera 21 of 50 42% 13 of 35 4 of 9 4 of 6 21 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 24 of 44 54% 16 of 34 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 24 of 62 38% 14 of 47 6 of 8 4 of 7 23 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 37 of 71 52% 20 of 47 9 of 13 8 of 11 37 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zahabi (-130); Vera (+110)

Round 1
On his first losing streak since 2018, “Chito” Vera (23-10-1, 15-9 UFC) might lose his place in line with another defeat. He will have to stave off the surging Ariel Helwani—that is, Tristar Gym’s Zahabi (13-2, 7-2 UFC). The three-round bantamweight affair will draw the assignment of referee Jason Herzog, and the fight begins with the athletes going right for it.
Vera is the aggressor, pitching a head kick while walking the Canadian down. Zahabi gets away with a low kick, and chants of his surname rain down in the building. Kicks continue to come from both sides as range-finders, but neither man drills the other with anything clean. Vera tries to go upstairs with his shin, and Zahabi blocks it well in time. Zahabi chambers and fires an inside leg kick to decent success, and he parries a jumping front kick that is the response. Vera stomps at the knee of his opponent, and he stutter-steps his way forward with a high kick. Vera then punches his way into another head kick effort, to which Zahabi chops his foe’s lead leg back. Left hooks are traded by the bantamweights, and Zahabi’s defensive shell protects him from the worst of the oncoming fire.
Zahabi splits the guard with a jab and follows with a right, and Vera greets him back with another calf kick. “Chito” reaches the body with a knee, and his low kick is soon to follow. Zahabi marches forward and lets his hands go, reaching his foe with a left but backing off when Vera starts to rev up his own engine. Vera chains a front kick into two leg kicks, one on either side of Zahabi’s front wheel. Zahabi rushes after the Ecuadorian, pulling back when Vera pump-fakes a knee. Vera sticks out an elbow that opens up Zahabi’s nose, which starts dripping down his face. “Chito” attacks with swinging kicks, and his knee is flashing at the right time to prevent Zahabi from bearing down on him. Zahabi bites down on his mouthpiece to engage, and he walks through a body kick to swing two big right hands. Vera backs him off with an elbow up top, and the close round ends with a Zahabi body kick.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi

Round 2
Between rounds, a replay shows that Vera is struggling with his ring finger on his left hand. When the bell starts the second stanza, adrenaline kicks back in and he closes his fist to throw it. Zahabi starts off aggressively, walking into a left hand so that he can bash Vera in the lead leg with a kick. Vera retaliates with a high kick that slaps off the guard, and he loops a right hand around the raised guard. Vera stomps down low with his kick and whips a left hand at the Canadian, and he catches a body kick to whip a pair of punches at his foe. Vera chains a front kick into a pair of punches, and he stans Zahabi up with a step-in elbow. When he tries for a knee, Zahabi intercepts him before getting air with a right hand. Body kicks land from both men, and Vera staggers his opponent with a piston-like jab. Zahabi bounces off the fence and rolls to grab the fence several times to pull himself upright, and Herzog appears to miss the fouls. Zahabi gets up, and Vera stalks him down like a predator following wounded prey.
Vera connects with a pinpoint accurate jab, and this time Zahabi does not flinch. Vera rips a left to the liver after going up top, and he has nothing to fear with absolutely zero offense coming back his direction. Vera whips a question mark kick up around the guard, and he strides through to drill Zahabi with long punches. Vera appears to let the damaged man off the hook, even with his Superman punch partially connecting. Vera scores a high kick and tries for a knee to the breadbasket, and Zahabi is back in full swing and swings with full force. Zahabi backs Vera up to the wall with looping punches, and Vera rebounds off the wall and appears no worse for wear. Vera ducks down to let a punch bang into the top of his skull, and he eats a knee to the body. The Canadian appears angered, letting loose with one-twos. Vera stifles him briefly with a kick to the knee, and when the horn sounds, they stand right in front of each mean-mugging until Herzog has to split them up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
Vera says hello in the final round with a head kick attempt. Zahabi drives him back with his own try, so Vera boots him with a hook kick. He then checks a kick coming his direction, and preemptively counters his opponent with a left hook right before Zahabi throws. Zahabi scores a hard low kick that draws a stance switch from the Ecuadorian, and the two trade it out from up close. Zahabi gains some space and kicks the side, and he keeps spinning with a back fist that misses by a mile. Vera showboats with the matador pantomime, but he has to keep his guard up because Zahabi is bearing down on him. Vera busts Zahabi’s nose back open with a flush knee, and it is no longer just dripping a wee bit. Zahabi chomps down on his gumshield and lets fly kicks and wide punches, and Vera rebounds off the wire and guard most of them to reset. Vera then scores a left hand to the temple, and he is met with a body kick. Vera intercepts his man with a check left hook, and Zahabi jacks him in the jaw with a front kick.
The two go shot-for-shot as they bash, bruise and bloody one another, with Vera looking for a step-in knee as Zahabi retaliates with an elbow. Vera pops his man with a left hand, spurring Zahabi into kicks from both legs. Vera kicks low, and he is caught upstairs with a right hand and further stung with a leg kick. “Chito” does not bat an eye and instead lashes out with his own offense, and Zahabi attacks his front leg repeatedly. Zahabi doubles up on straight left hands, and Vera’s low kick lands with a pop and slips a left hand around the guard. Vera is backed up from the offense of his adversary, with Zahabi blitzing forward and finally drawing blood on the bridge of Vera’s nose. Vera does not even register the damage, instead getting right back in Zahabi’s face with fists and feet. “Chito” just misses with an axe kick, and the fight could still be hanging in the balance with 15 seconds to go. Vera lands a leg kick, and Zahabi races forward and gets clipped. They both go nuts with one final brawl, hitting one another in the chin with everything they have left. The round ends, and both corners lift their fighters up in the air to celebrate a tight, brutal slugfest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Vera)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Vera)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Marlon Vera via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo slightly leans Chito Vera, noting his durability, volume, and ability to win in scrambles. He questions Zahabi's win streak, calling the Aldo win lucky and the Basharat win a robbery. He worries about Vera's slow starts in three-round fights and potential chin decline.

"I think I'm going to slightly lean Chito Vera as far as a pick is concerned."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady is unsure which version of Vera shows up. He thinks if Vera is motivated, he can win with his striking and elbows. He notes Vera always loses the first round but could steal rounds two and three. He picks Vera by close decision, acknowledging the fight has split decision written all over it.

"I'm going to take Vera to win this fight. I do think it's going to be a close fight... give me vera to win by a close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Cody picks Zahabi, citing Marlon Vera's slow starts and accumulated damage. He notes Vera has been hit over 1600 times in the UFC and is slowing down. Zahabi's high volume, precision, and methodical game plan will allow him to win rounds. Cody expects Zahabi to win by decision.

Zahabi by decision, over
"I got Zahabi just fighting the good methodical game plan, breaking him down, winning a decision. So Zahabi, Zahabi by decision, and the over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Connor picks Vera, but with hesitation. He notes that Vera is a slow-paced fighter who lets opponents rally early, then becomes more aggressive in later rounds. Connor thinks Zahabi will give Vera no choice but to get aggressive, and Vera's durability and power could pay off. However, he acknowledges that Vera's style doesn't deserve to win rounds and that Zahabi could be one of the fighters who works around it.

Odds: Vera opened at +210, currently +115; Zahabi opened at -250, currently -135.
"I think I'll go with Cheeto too. I mean, I just think, uh, you know, in a weird way, like he was, um, poised to make Aldo really very stressed out and uncomfortable."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

James calls this a close fight and struggles to pick a winner. He favors Zahabi due to the Canadian crowd and potential judging bias, as seen in Zahabi's win over Jose Aldo. He notes Vera's durability and cardio advantages but questions Vera's recent form and damage taken. James predicts a split decision for Zahabi.

"I'm going to go with Aan Zahabi here. I'm going to go with Aan Zahabi. Like maybe robbery decision, you know, or maybe split decision uh and then the Canadian judges score it for him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

The host thinks Vera's aggressive style will be too much for Zahabi, who prefers to sit back at distance and counter. He expects Vera to continuously push forward with aggressive output, leading to a late finish or a decision win.

late finish or decision
"I think his run ends here as the aggressive style of Vera should end up being too much for Zahabi to deal with."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Paul leans Zahabi, noting his volume and precision. He mentions Vera's slow starts and that Zahabi is Canadian, which could help in a close decision. Paul expects a close fight but gives the edge to Zahabi.

"Slightly into Zahabi here. you know, another fight that I expect to be close and competitive."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

The MMA Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Marlon Vera. He criticizes Vera's recent performances, calling him a punching bag and easy to game plan against. He praises Zahabi's team and game planning, and his toughness shown against Aldo. He predicts Zahabi will use takedowns and clean striking to win a clear decision, 30-27.

decision win 30-27
"I'm going to go with Aiemann Zahabi getting this one done by decision, 30-27, clears the scorecards."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Zane picks Vera, but hesitantly. He notes that Vera's style is not built to win rounds, but he is dangerous and can rally in later rounds. Zane thinks Zahabi's physical limitations may catch up to him against elite talent, and Vera's power and durability could be the difference. However, he acknowledges Zahabi's impressive win over Aldo and his unique ability to fight off both front and back foot.

Odds: Vera opened at +210, currently +115; Zahabi opened at -250, currently -135.
"I'm just gonna pick Cheeto on the, like, I can't keep, I can't watch as a hobby against a really elite talent and see those moments where they just catch him out..."
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 1 68 of 167 40% 71 of 170 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 99 of 199 49% 109 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 1 20 of 36 55% 23 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 52 of 87 59% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 68 of 167 40% 48 of 135 13 of 25 7 of 7 67 of 166 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 99 of 199 49% 79 of 167 14 of 22 6 of 10 66 of 151 8 of 11 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 23 of 59 38% 12 of 42 6 of 12 5 of 5 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 21 of 46 45% 15 of 39 4 of 5 2 of 2 18 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 25 of 72 34% 17 of 62 6 of 8 2 of 2 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 26 of 66 39% 19 of 50 3 of 8 4 of 8 25 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 20 of 36 55% 19 of 31 1 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 52 of 87 59% 45 of 78 7 of 9 0 of 0 23 of 44 4 of 6 25 of 37
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldo (-218), Zahabi (+180)

Round 1
A day and a half ago, the “featured fight of the night” slot was booked as a bantamweight affair. Elder statesman and beloved champ Aldo (32-9, 14-8 UFC) could not get close to 136 pounds, so he and Zahabi (12-2, 6-2 UFC) agreed to bump it up to featherweight to keep it together due to strange Canadian weight regulations. In what could be a passing of the torch match—this could be said about the last five fights or so for the ex-WEC champ—referee Dan Miragliotta will be installed as the cage commander. The two relieved fighters who did not have to cut nearly as much weight as they expected bump fists to get the fight started. Aldo marches forward, guard high, and Zahabi circles all the way around him. Aldo keeps following his foe, neither man throwing a strike of merit for the first 50 seconds. Aldo finally lands a jab, but it is just one jab. Zahabi jabs him back, and Aldo responds with a speedy head kick that bounces into his foe’s armpit. Zahabi jumps in and out to strike, and Aldo lets go with a body kick and two hooks. Aldo cracks the Canadian with a right hand, sending Zahabi back in a hurry. He lands another right hand, and lifts up a knee to counter something that does not get to him. Zahabi gets off two punches, and Aldo does not even register them and loads up a right hand that bangs into the Canadian’s head. Zahabi reaches his foe with a body kick, and Aldo continues marching forward without fear. Aldo lifts his knee up to block a high kick, and he jabs with the ball of his foot extended. Aldo rips the body with two punches, and Zahabi’s guard lower as he frowns. Aldo doubles up on a jab to strike with a right hand, and he gets countered and sways to avoid the worst of them. Aldo counters Zahabi coming in with a hook, and he jabs the body when he notices Zahabi is not retaliating. Aldo scores a mighty low kick, and Zahabi walks towards him to score a pair of punches. Zahabi flashes a grin, and he splits the guard with a few jabs and a couple right hands. Aldo leans back and dodges several punches, and he engages with power offense of his own. Aldo uses a power jab to set up further punches, and he no-sells a left hook and fires one back. Aldo goes to the body, and Zahabi counters with a front kick and a punch. Aldo cracks him with a left hand, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
Zahabi starts off the round in a flurry, crashing the pocket and kneeing the former champ flush in the chest. Aldo forces him to settle down with a front kick to the midsection. Aldo flicks out a quick jab, and he sneaks in a low kick before Zahabi can get to him. Aldo checks a kick and swings for the fences, but the Canadian is able to escape them. Aldo checks a leg kick and snaps out his jab, intercepting his advancing opponent every time. Zahabi walks through a few to try to strike, and Aldo goes to the body and head. When Zahabi strikes back, Aldo is nowhere to be found. Aldo pounds the body with a right hand, and he takes a left hook on the forehead so he can rifle off a big hook of his own. Aldo slips a punch and has one scrape off his forehead, and they jab one another up. The former beltholder plays the matador, absorbing a single left hand and landing his own. Zahabi’s foot rises up in a combination, and his foot strikes the groin. He immediately apologizes, and Aldo knows it was totally by accident. They restart in a few seconds, with Zahabi cut on the side of his right eye. Aldo lets him come at him so he can counter, and he ducks a leaping left hand to sneak away. Zahabi kicks him square in the groin, and this time, Aldo is a little more irritated and takes some time, while saying “that’s two” to Miragliotta. Time is called, and Aldo is perturbed but they tap gloves to get going after 15 seconds and push ahead. Zahabi aims a kick much lower to avoid the groin, and he has another get checked. Aldo whips a body shot at him and looks to dodge a jab. Zahabi clips the former beltholder with a left hand, and Aldo pushes off with a front kick and a few jabs. Zahabi dings him with another left, and Aldo shakes his head. Aldo leaps in the air, landing a flying knee to the body at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the last round begins. Zahabi reintroduces himself with a one-two, beating Aldo to the punch with a few strikes until Aldo revs up his own engine and stinging the Canadian. Aldo lets Zahabi fly past him, but when Zahabi resets, Zahabi lands three punches down the middle. Aldo shakes his head and drives a knee into his chest. Two body shots from the Brazilian land cleanly, and he ducks down and takes a left hand over the top along with a knee to the body. Aldo surges into action, hurting Zahabi with a knee, a right hand and a head kick that send him flying. Aldo punches his foe and drills Zahabi with a legal soccer kick, and Zahabi is all over the place and barely with it. Aldo chases after him and blasts him with another soccer kick, and Zahabi flops to his back and survives it. Miraculously, Zahabi is still in the fight, and he manages to stand back in front of Aldo, who is looking hard at the clock. The Brazilian is totally spent trying to force the finish, and suddenly momentum has shifted again. Zahabi pours it on, and he marches Aldo down and starts hurting him. A gassed Aldo shoots for a takedown, and Zahabi bowls him over and starts landing punches. Zahabi sits in Aldo’s guard, unleashing heavy punches and elbows. Zahabi continues to assault the former champ with unblocked elbows, and Aldo hangs on tight with nothing left to offer. Aldo keeps his hands up and breathes as hard as one can, and he clings to Zahabi while Zahabi offers more elbows. Zahabi complains that Aldo is holding his glove, and a moment of confusion leads to Zahabi hammering Aldo with more elbows. One slashing elbow shreds open a cut on the middle of Aldo’s forehead, and blood streams down his face immediately. Zahabi keeps pouring it on, looking to Miragliotta for a stoppage that is not yet to come. Every time Zahabi nails Aldo, he looks to Miragliotta. Aldo holds on to save himself and run out the clock, and Zahabi helps him back to his feet when the shocking match concludes. Both teams lift their fighters on their shoulders and parade them around the cage, embracing while held on the shoulders. What a fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.

Considering inside distance decision no action prop
"It is pretty clear that Jose is actually the better fighter. Even at his age, he is fast, he's clean, he's dangerous, he's durable, he's impossible to take down."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.

"I'm going to take Zahabi to win a very close competitive decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.

"I think Aldo, even in losses, has shown he is still very dangerous in the striking room."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo getting this one done. I'm going to say Jose Aldo gets a TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aiemann Zahabi 0 109 of 206 52% 110 of 208 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 95 of 327 29% 95 of 327 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aiemann Zahabi 0 30 of 51 58% 30 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 26 of 72 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aiemann Zahabi 0 41 of 90 45% 42 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 22 of 109 20% 22 of 109 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Aiemann Zahabi 0 38 of 65 58% 38 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 47 of 146 32% 47 of 146 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aiemann Zahabi 109 of 206 52% 98 of 188 11 of 17 0 of 1 109 of 204 0 of 2 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 95 of 327 29% 82 of 304 7 of 14 6 of 9 94 of 324 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aiemann Zahabi 30 of 51 58% 24 of 43 6 of 8 0 of 0 30 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 26 of 72 36% 23 of 65 2 of 4 1 of 3 25 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Aiemann Zahabi 41 of 90 45% 37 of 81 4 of 8 0 of 1 41 of 89 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 22 of 109 20% 16 of 100 3 of 6 3 of 3 22 of 107 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Aiemann Zahabi 38 of 65 58% 37 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0 38 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 47 of 146 32% 43 of 139 2 of 4 2 of 3 47 of 146 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zahabi (-115), Munhoz (-105)

Round 1
Posting one win in each of the last four years, Tristar Gym’s Zahabi (11-2, 5-2 UFC) has slowly but surely figured things out and climbed the bantamweight ladder. He earns a top-15 adversary in Munhoz (20-9, 2 NC; 10-9, 2 NC UFC), who on the wrong end of his 30s plans on showing there are still levels to this game. Referee Jerin Valel will officiate the preliminary headliner, one that commences as the sportsmen clap hands. Munhoz awkwardly shifts his way forward, throwing Zahabi off with his unusual hopping non-rhythm. Zahabi cannot get a time on him, and he resorts to backing off and lifting his leg up preemptively expecting leg kicks to fly. No strike is thrown for the first 50 seconds until Munhoz says hello with a guard-piercing jab. Munhoz walks Zahabi down and jabs him in the face again, and his front kick does the same to the body. Zahabi lumbers forward with two looping hooks, and a third bounces off the guard. Zahabi pounds the body with a kick, and Munhoz jabs him back to the fence. Zahabi’s big swings are parried or met with jabs, as Munhoz throws straight strikes while keeping his guard up. Zahabi whips another kick to the liver, and he scoops a left hand over the top. Munhoz stays right in Zahabi’s face, reddening him with jabs and slipping counters. Zahabi gets hold of a right hook that Munhoz cannot dodge, but it does not irritate the Brazilian in the slightest. Munhoz sneaks a high kick up, and when he bends over to evade the counters, he ducks into a knee. Zahabi stabs his toes to the liver, and Munhoz’ jab-heavy approach does not falter. Munhoz follows a jab with a left hook, and he swats away a lunging Zahabi and his combo. Zahabi looks for another knee as Munhoz bends, but he does not set it up and instead tags Munhoz in the face with a pair of flush punches. Munhoz jabs and lands a right, and Zahabi works the body and head in response. Zahabi scores a left hook on an advancing Munhoz, and Munhoz throws a low kick and stuffs a takedown shot. Munhoz jabs and sets up a straight right hand and a sharp kick to the ribs. Zahabi keeps his guard up to defend an elbow, and he evades a looping right hand by a matter of inches. Munhoz jabs his way into range, and he is backed off by a pair of jabs from the Canadian. Zahabi gets a high kick up, and they trade hands until the time hits 5:00.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 2
Munhoz offers a glove touch that is accepted, and he follows it with a few jabs. Munhoz uses the jab to smack Zahabi in the face with a right hand, and Zahabi fires back with a head kick followed by a few punches. Munhoz walks into a knee as he is pressing the action fearlessly, and he does not let Zahabi land without firing back relentlessly. Munhoz opens up with five punches that largely bounce off the guard, and Zahabi works the body with a kick. Zahabi slings an elbow as Munhoz advances, and Munhoz’ jabs are now more frequently being followed with power punches. Munhoz eats a right hand and tries to give one back, and Zahab kicks him in the side again. Munhoz dips and strikes, and he absorbs an uppercut without concern. Munhoz scores a solid right hand that sends Zahabi staggering to the right for a second, but the Canadian steels himself and strikes Munhoz repeatedly with hard jabs. Munhoz is right there in his grill hitting him back, and these two are unloading on one another. Zahabi times a break with a heavy body kick, and the punch salvos of three or more fly from both sides. Zahabi eats a right hand so he can sit down on a clean right counter, and Munhoz smiles and walks him down to slug him back. Munhoz ducks to shoot for a takedown, swelling growing under his left eye, and he cannot ground the Tristar-trained competitor. Munhoz lands a low kick and is jabbed back, but he opens up with right hand into a takedown. Zahabi smoothly sprawls and fights behind his jab, dealing well with Munhoz’ constant pressure. Munhoz slams another leg kick home, opening up a few punches up top. Zahabi strafes to the side when Munhoz swarms him, and he jabs twice and takes a thudding right hand on the temple. Zahabi lands a left and a hooking right, and he stops a double-leg entry without issue and knees “The Young Punisher” in the gut. Zahabi sets up a few punches after the knee, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi

Round 3
Munhoz comes out firing in the last round, with both rounds somewhat close and potentially everything up for grabs in the last five-minute stanza. Munhoz plods forward throwing big hands, and Zahabi’s defense protects from most of it. Munhoz jabs to the body with a foot and up high with a fist, and he parries a counter to put two fists on the dome of his foe. Munhoz rolls with a punch, walks into a right hand and responds with a pair of punches. Zahabi gets a knee up the middle, and Munhoz sends him wobbling back with a couple heavy blows. The fighters continue to trade without fear, and Munhoz has the volume advantage but gets a cut opened up on the right side of his right eye. Zahabi’s jabs target that spot with impunity, and Munhoz completely ignores it to load up on volume punches. Zahabi’s jab is money, forcing Munhoz to wipe his eye. Zahabi shoots for a takedown, and Munhoz stuffs it and splits the guard with a trio of strikes. Zahabi dips to score a right and snaps the head back with a jab, but “The Young Punisher” is right in front of him putting hands on him. They jab at the same time, and Munhoz has three fists flying immediately after launching it. Zahabi’s guard stops the Brazilian from most of his strike getting through, and he stops a takedown with ease. Munhoz charges recklessly with lunging punches, and the counters from Zahabi further chew up Munhoz’ face. Munhoz gets caught with a right hand and hits his seat, and he jumps back up to put hands on jaw. Munhoz scores two right hands over the top, and he motions for Zahabi to swang and bang with him. There is a failed takedown as they trade leather, and Valel gets between them as time expires but they just want to hug it out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Angelo picks Aiemann Zahabi due to high fight IQ and a well-trained corner (brother Firas). He notes Pedro Munhoz is a volume striker with dangerous BJJ but negative striking differential. He thinks Zahabi's point-fighting style could work, but if he just sits on right hands, Munhoz will touch him up. He says over 2.5 rounds is probably safe but likely won't bet this fight.

over 2.5 rounds is probably safe
"aan is going to be the pick because of the high fight IQ because of the the well-trained corner"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz to win by decision. He criticizes Zahabi's low output (3.43 significant strikes per minute) and boring style, while Munhoz is more active (5.32 per minute) and has fought tougher competition. Brady likes Munhoz's leg kicks, durability, and takedown defense. He notes that Zahabi does nothing in the cage and that Munhoz's experience against top fighters gives him the edge.

"ped mun is by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Pedro Munhoz, citing his durability and higher level of competition. He notes that Munhoz has fought top bantamweights and has a BJJ black belt, though he rarely uses it. He believes Munhoz's aggression and pressure could overwhelm Zahabi, but acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way. He is wary of hometown judging but sides with the Brazilian.

"I'll go with P J Munoz who historically just has like decent you know a very very very good durability."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Vreeland picks Pedro Munhoz, despite acknowledging his decline from a top-five ranking. He believes Munhoz's higher output, calf kicks, and durability (never knocked down) will be too much for Aiemann Zahabi. Vreeland notes that Zahabi is 36 and not a young prospect, and that Munhoz's experience and pace should earn him a close decision, though he admits a Canadian bias could affect judging.

"go Pedro Munoz here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Zahabi is on a Cinderella run with upset victories in his last four wins. He will out-strike and out-volume Munhoz en route to a decision victory.

"Look for him to go out there and pick up his biggest Victory this weekend as he out strikes and out volumes Munoz on route to a decision Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Paul picks Aiemann Zahabi, arguing that Munhoz is older (38) and has slowed down, while Zahabi is fresher with less mileage. He notes Zahabi's reach advantage and precise striking, and believes he can keep Munhoz at range with his jab. He also mentions Zahabi's four-fight winning streak and momentum, and that Munhoz's aggressive style plays into Zahabi's counter-striking game.

"I'll take a a hobby cuz the lines pretty well even."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

The Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Pedro Munhoz, believing Munhoz is declining. He notes Zahabi's movement and strategy from the Firas Zahabi camp, and expects Zahabi to pick apart Munhoz's dipping, hook-swinging style. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28.

close decision
"I'm GNA go with amen zahabi I don't think he puts away Pedro manoz but I think he can figure out that style of mun where he just comes in all Twitchy with his hands"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aiemann Zahabi 0 75 of 174 43% 77 of 176 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Javid Basharat 0 67 of 205 32% 67 of 205 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aiemann Zahabi 0 12 of 38 31% 12 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Javid Basharat 0 14 of 56 25% 14 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aiemann Zahabi 0 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Javid Basharat 0 28 of 73 38% 28 of 73 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Aiemann Zahabi 0 37 of 78 47% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Javid Basharat 0 25 of 76 32% 25 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aiemann Zahabi 75 of 174 43% 51 of 130 16 of 26 8 of 18 74 of 172 1 of 2 0 of 0
Javid Basharat 67 of 205 32% 33 of 147 27 of 44 7 of 14 67 of 203 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aiemann Zahabi 12 of 38 31% 5 of 27 3 of 4 4 of 7 12 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Javid Basharat 14 of 56 25% 4 of 35 7 of 15 3 of 6 14 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aiemann Zahabi 26 of 58 44% 19 of 44 7 of 11 0 of 3 26 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Javid Basharat 28 of 73 38% 15 of 57 10 of 12 3 of 4 28 of 71 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Aiemann Zahabi 37 of 78 47% 27 of 59 6 of 11 4 of 8 36 of 76 1 of 2 0 of 0
Javid Basharat 25 of 76 32% 14 of 55 10 of 17 1 of 4 25 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Javid Basharat
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-700), Zahabi (+500)

Round 1
When the dust settles, one of these bantamweights’ momentum will come to a conclusive halt. Once known best as on the receiving end of an all-time highlight reel knockout, Zahabi (10-2, 4-2 UFC) has reeled off three straight victories including two concussive knockouts. On the other side of the equation, Basharat (14-0, 1 NC; 3-0, 1 NC UFC) did encounter his first career blemish when an accidental groin kick ended his last fight, but he maintains a 15-fight unbeaten streak. Before the red falls on someone’s ledger, referee Chris Tognoni is there to keep things clean. The fighters touch gloves, and Basharat prances forward with his kick leg outstretched. Basharat tosses out a few body kicks and one low, and he checks one coming back. Zahabi attempts to retaliate, but Basharat is able to reach him with slightly longer legs. Zahabi overswings with a huge right hand, and Basharat dances out of the way and continues to prod with kicks to the low midsection and thigh. Zahabi attempts to close the distance, only for Basharat to be able to dodge everything thrown at him as he zips back and to the side. Zahabi reaches out with a left hand, and Basharat pops his lead leg with a loud kick. Basharat jabs with the ball of his foot, and he spins with a kick that misses the mark. Zahabi catches Basharat darting in with a left hand, but it is one-and-done before Basharat gets back to his preferred kicking range. Basharat ducks down, landing a few punches and going to the ribs with a resounding kick. On his way in, Basharat may have clashes head with his opponent, but it goes uncalled. Zahabi swats away a one-two and gives a calf kick back, but he takes a shovel uppercut on the cheek. Basharat jumps in the air with a kick, and as soon as Zahabi is about to counter him, Basharat puts him on his seat with a side kick to the sternum. Zahabi climbs back up without issue, and he aims his kick at Basharat’s lead wheel. Basharat misses with two wide hooks, but his high kick does bounce off the guard. Zahabi replies with two blocked body kicks, and he guards against a front kick aimed at his nose. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
The second round begins where the two men left off, with Basharat keeping his distance with long kicks while Zahabi largely comes up short with punches. Basharat puts a few punches on the reddening face of his opponent, and Zahabi reaches him back with two right hooks. Basharat ignores them and sticks out a jab, and he breaks up Zahabi’s offense with the jab. Zahabi has a low kick checked, and he swarms his man with several punches until Basharat turns to the side to get away. Basharat resets and marks up Zahabi’s nose with jab after unanswered jab, and he follows a few with a right hand or a front kick. Basharat reaches out with a high kick, and when that does not connect, he plants a knee on the chest and cracks Zahabi with an uppercut. The Canadian takes it flush and swings back with bad intentions. Basharat sees the big strikes coming and stays light on his feet to avoid them. Basharat pushes off with a pair of teep kicks, and he nearly gets decked with a huge right hand from Zahabi. Zahabi continues to swing for the fences, and Basharat backs him off with jabs and his diverse kicking game. “The Snow Leopard” charges for a takedown, and Zahabi stands him up but absorbs an elbow on the break. Zahabi plants his feet and winds up with a stern right hand that collides with the temple, and Basharat shakes it off and continues to move forward. Zahabi goes after a body kick and a left hand, and the latter misses. Basharat races in with a takedown, and Zahabi intercepts him with a jump knee and lands to set up a guillotine choke. Basharat continues to spam takedowns, and every time they fail, he is ready to stand up and land at least one big strike. Zahabi opens up with a huge haymaker of a right, and Basharat’s balance nearly gives way as he wobbles to the side and then gets his sea legs beneath him. As Basharat advances to end the round, Zahabi pops him again, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Basharat appearing no worse for wear after the rough ending to the round, with long jabs and a spinning back kick to the side. The distance Basharat keeps disallows Zahabi from reaching him, and he peppers and chips away at a wide berth. Zahabi finally lands his own punch after a minute, and it is a right hand that gets Basharat’s attention. During the ensuing exchange, Basharat leaves his fingers out, and he jabs Zahabi in the eye. Tognoni calls time briefly, but Zahabi is good to go. Basharat apologizes and then gets back into his groove of rangy strikes. Zahabi continues to find his range with right hands, and he swipes out with a left as Basharat nods at him. Zahabi plods forward looping punches, and Basharat hops in and out with body shots and an escape. The two start trading leather, with Basharat less concerned about his defense than before, and this allows Zahabi to touch him back. Zahabi lands three hooks, and Basharat slides to the side to snipe his foe with one that makes the Canadian backpedal. Basharat eats a left hand coming forward, and Zahabi belts him upside the head with a kick. Basharat no-sells it, but Zahabi chains several punches after it. Basharat tags him with a right hand in response, and the two continue to lay into one another with heavy punches. Basharat leans down and gets caught with an uppercut, and they clinch together. Basharat attempts a hip toss, and Zahabi keeps his balance and he keeps chasing after his opponent. Zahabi lands the flusher strikes, and the two swing wildly right to the bitter end. Basharat gets off a final knee to punctuate the fight, and they hug it out when the final horn sounds. It could go either way, and it is entirely possible the unbeaten fighter is undefeated no more.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Javid Basharat via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Angelo picks Javid Basharat, noting he has incredible offensive and defensive wrestling and can also kickbox. He believes Basharat should avoid Aiemann Zahabi's power and win likely by decision. He mentions he has picked and bet on both Basharat brothers before and is confident in Javid.

Javid Basharat wins by decision (better value)
"jvid wins likely by decision if you want to sneak in some better value there but I'm going to continue to ride these BB Brothers to the promised land"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Big Brady picks Basharat, noting Zahabi's low-volume counter-striking style and reliance on a knockout. He thinks Basharat is a much higher-level fighter and will cruise to a decision, winning minutes. He acknowledges Zahabi has power but believes Basharat's chin will hold up.

"it should be Javid here Javid by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Cody picks Basharat by decision, noting his superior volume and wrestling. He points out that Zahabi's career-high in significant strikes is 54, which would be a career low for Basharat. Cody believes Basharat will outwork Zahabi on the feet and take him down, winning a clear unanimous decision. He mentions the price is inflated but still sees Basharat as a safe pick.

"I think bosro takes down Amon zahabi in this fight... on the feet he's losing on the ground he's losing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Basharat is one of the best prospects at 135 lbs, with smooth striking, excellent footwork and distance management, and improving grappling. Zahabi is 36 and past his prime, while Basharat is much closer to his. Basharat's striking defense should keep him safe from Zahabi's power, and he may even take the fight to the ground. Basharat likely wins by decision, but the line is too high to bet straight; parlay value may exist.

Basharat by decision (prop likely chalky)
"I think bashad is a little bit Slicker on the feet I think his striking defense is good enough to stay away from the power and the deceiving power that zahabi possesses"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Paul picks Basharat, noting his high volume and well-rounded skills. He mentions Zahabi's low output and reliance on a single counter punch, which won't work against Basharat's pressure. Paul believes Basharat will double Zahabi's strike output and mix in takedowns for a clear decision win. He acknowledges the minus-900 price is tough but sees Basharat as safe.

"Javid I guess is the pick but minus 900 there's no money really to be made there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Basharat, citing his unorthodox striking, movement, and dynamic attacks (spinning attacks, low kicks, stance switching). He thinks Zahabi is too simple and that Basharat's dynamic style will be the difference, though the boxing may be even.

"Javid Basharat is gonna win... I think it's going to be the dynamic stuff that separates Basharat from Aiemann in this fight"
WIN vs Aoriqileng
KO (punches) R1 1:04 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aiemann Zahabi 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aoriqileng 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aiemann Zahabi 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aoriqileng 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aiemann Zahabi 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3
Aoriqileng 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aiemann Zahabi 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3
Aoriqileng 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Qileng Aori vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aori (-125), Zahabi (+105)

Round 1
In his sixth year with the company, Tristar Gym’s own Zahabi (9-2, 3-2 UFC) will remarkably be entering into only bout no. six in the Octagon. This is a far cry from Chinese combatant Aori (24-9, 2-2 UFC), who is about to have five outings under his belt in a little over two years when referee John Cooper clocks them in. The bantamweight combatants do not touch ‘em up to start, and Aori instead walks forward and fires off several kicks to the body. Zahabi blitzes with a few punches, and Aori parries them effectively. From afar, Aori chips with a few kicks, including a thudding leg kick. The Chinese fighter does not recoil his leg fast enough to get his guard up, and Zahabi reaches out with a takedown to threaten.
As Aori leans back, Zahabi swarms him with a right hand that hits air, and a left hand that smashes Aori square on the chin. Aori drops to the mat like a sack of potatoes, and Zahabi raises his arms in the air to celebrate what he thinks is a walk-off knockout. Cooper does not actually call the fight off, as Aori lands and turns to his side in a daze. The Canadian, learning he has to keep hitting the defeated fighter, reluctantly goes over to Aori and lowers himself to slug Aori with two more left hands to conclude the match once and for all.
This is a huge win for Zahabi, and the crowd goes wild. When Aori comes to, he squares up like he wants to keep fighting, seemingly not knowing that he was knocked out cleanly. So far, the home fans have had plenty to cheer about tonight.

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Qileng Aori R1 1:04 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Angelo picks Aiemann Zahabi as an underdog. He notes that Zahabi is well-rounded with big power, and that his performance against Ricky Turcios was impressive. He believes Zahabi will be more technical and a step ahead of Aoriqileng. He plans to monitor line movement and may bet if Zahabi becomes a larger underdog.

"I do think he gets the win here he's the underdog I think he's going to get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Big Brady picks Aiemann Zahabi because he is the more active striker, landing 6.07 significant strikes per minute compared to Aoriqileng's 3.01. He notes that Aoriqileng has low volume, doesn't use his BJJ, and has poor takedown attempts. Zahabi is younger, more experienced, and has never been knocked out. He expects Zahabi to outwork Aoriqileng over three rounds and win a decision.

"I actually like arichi long a decent amount in this matchup... he's going to be outlanding as a hobby probably two to one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Aoriqileng

Cody picks Aoriqileng, citing his volume and pressure style. He notes that Zahabi is a low-volume counter puncher who doesn't wrestle much, and Aoriqileng will come forward with blitzes and constant pressure. He believes Zahabi's wrestling is not good enough to neutralize Aoriqileng, and the volume difference should win rounds. He acknowledges the risk of a bad Canadian decision but still picks Aoriqileng.

"I think a Richie Lang's style should uh should win this fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Aoriqileng

Connor also picks Aoriqileng, noting that Zahabi's wins came against fighters who wouldn't engage or lacked physicality, while his losses to Vince Morales and Ricardo Ramos were not close. He points out that Aoriqileng is a little slow-paced but has more promise in his fights with Jeff Molina and Cody Durden, where a method was visible. Connor suggests it would be a good time for Zahabi to show wrestling, but Aoriqileng is not easy to keep down.

Aoriqileng favorite at -118; Zahabi at -110 or even favorite on some books
"Yeah, so yeah, I'll take our qlang as well."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Levi does not make a pick for this fight, stating he has no interest in betting it. He notes that Aoriqileng has power but questionable takedown defense, while Zahabi has low activity and is older. He defers to the co-host who has a teammate in the fight.

"I don't really have much interest in betting this fight personally at the moment"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Aoriqileng

James picks Aoriqileng, noting his momentum with two straight wins and improved takedown defense and striking. He contrasts Aoriqileng's aggressive pressure and volume with Zahabi's technical but low-volume outside fighting style. James believes Aoriqileng can land heavier shots and push the pace to win on the scorecards. He warns that if Aoriqileng reverts to a brawler style, Zahabi could catch him with straight shots, but overall he likes Aoriqileng's spot and the even-money price.

"I think irichi Lang's a good spot in this in this spot I think he's gonna land the heavier shots I think he'll probably land more damage and I think he's going to be the one pushing out the pace …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Aoriqileng

Aoriqileng has shown improved defensive grappling since moving to bantamweight and has a volume and output advantage. Zahabi is a technical striker but often too timid, and his low activity is a concern. Aoriqileng's pressure and accuracy should earn him a decision, though Zahabi could win if he uses his jiu-jitsu. Low confidence due to Zahabi's potential grappling edge.

"give me a Richie laying here and I think he wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Aoriqileng

Paul picks Aoriqileng, emphasizing the volume disparity: Aoriqileng averages 6.07 strikes per minute vs Zahabi's 3.01. He notes that Zahabi's fights are low-output, and Aoriqileng's constant pressure should win rounds. He expects a close fight but believes Aoriqileng's output will be enough, though a bad Canadian decision is possible.

"it's not tercios is a one fight pint-sized sample oh he beat one kid right uh this is the hobby six fights you kind of know what you're gonna get out of them which is sub 50 and a Richie …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

The MMA Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Aoriqileng, praising Zahabi's fight IQ and game planning. He notes Aoriqileng is predictable with big power shots and telegraphs his moves, while Zahabi can figure out opponents and mix things up. He believes Zahabi's size and heat behind his shots will keep Aoriqileng honest, predicting a 30-27 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Amy and zahabi I like Amy and zahabi because much like um the other zahabi for our sahabi he has a good mind for the game"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Aoriqileng

Zane picks Aoriqileng, criticizing Zahabi's last fight as extremely technical but aimless, with fighters standing too far apart. He notes that Zahabi is a brawler who doesn't understand fighting without chaos, while Aoriqileng has a clear method: he works his way forward, applies pressure, and punishes mistakes with quick counters. Zane thinks Aoriqileng is better in a brawl and also better when it's not a brawl, making him the pick.

Aoriqileng favorite at -118; Zahabi at -110 or even favorite on some books
"I'm gonna take him. Yeah, I'm gonna take our killing uh as well."
WIN vs Ricky Turcios
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aiemann Zahabi 0 54 of 105 51% 54 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ricky Turcios 0 27 of 235 11% 27 of 235 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aiemann Zahabi 0 12 of 23 52% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ricky Turcios 0 7 of 53 13% 7 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Aiemann Zahabi 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ricky Turcios 0 10 of 84 11% 10 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Aiemann Zahabi 0 21 of 36 58% 21 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ricky Turcios 0 10 of 98 10% 10 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aiemann Zahabi 54 of 105 51% 18 of 59 9 of 14 27 of 32 53 of 104 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ricky Turcios 27 of 235 11% 14 of 204 5 of 21 8 of 10 27 of 235 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aiemann Zahabi 12 of 23 52% 3 of 14 5 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ricky Turcios 7 of 53 13% 3 of 46 1 of 4 3 of 3 7 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aiemann Zahabi 21 of 46 45% 10 of 29 2 of 6 9 of 11 21 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ricky Turcios 10 of 84 11% 4 of 72 3 of 8 3 of 4 10 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Aiemann Zahabi 21 of 36 58% 5 of 16 2 of 3 14 of 17 21 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ricky Turcios 10 of 98 10% 7 of 86 1 of 9 2 of 3 10 of 98 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ricky Turcios vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Turcios (-190), Zahabi (+160)

Round 1
Unexpectedly, this preliminary contest now is slotted on the main card, as bantamweights go at it. Tristar’s Zahabi (8-2, 2-2 UFC) makes his way back to the Octagon for the first time in over 16 months. He will do so against “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 29 winner Turcios (11-2, 1-0 UFC), who himself has been out of action since August. Cage corrosion will be kicked off in front of referee Chris Tognoni, and the returning gentlemen do not touch ‘em up before proceeding. Turcios very violently stomps the floor a few times for feints, and he wings a hook kick and lets loose a kiai to follow, even as it is feet away from the target. The Canadian ducks back when Turcios walks him down and flicks out several jabs, and he intercepts Zahabi on the way in with a front kick right on the chin. Turcios employs a more traditional martial arts stance, bouncing back and forth on his feet, and his movement is making Zahabi struggle to close the distance. The Tristar Gym fighter rushes forward, and he only manages to land one right hand before he has to back off. Turcios slaps him in the chest with a kick, and he puts another front kick out after stomping the floor loudly. Zahabi kicks him in the ribs, and he blocks a high kick and counters with a left hook. Turcios tosses up a head kick, and as Zahabi guards it and recovers, he shoots in for a takedown. Zahabi manages to sprawl well enough to break away and reset, and they trade kicks from range. Turcios just misses with a front kick, and he widely misses with another. As Zahabi plods forward, Turcios clips him with a right hook, and Zahabi keeps a stiff upper lip but may be stung from the blow. When Zahabi backs off, Turcios stomps the ground repeatedly and tells Zahabi to come on. Turcios kicks high again and pursues a takedown to follow, and Zahabi is wise to it. They kick one another in the body, and Turcios spins with a back fist that is at least a meter away from where he planned on it landing. Zahabi connects with a leg kick, and Turcios taunts him with a shout. The awkward stance and posturing of Turcios is allowing him to dictate much of the action, even if his high-flying strikes are all hugely inaccurate. Turcios kicks with body legs, and he jabs out several times, shouting every time. Zahabi swings and hits air in a counter, and the strange round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Turcios
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Turcios
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Turcios

Round 2
Turcios leads out with a glove touch, and Zahabi accepts it to start off the round. The leg kicks get traded one after the other, and other strikes do not find their homes. Zahabi blocks a few blows on the way forward so that he can sit down on a leg kick, and he slides back as Turcios comes at him with punches. Zahabi counters with a right, and he does not bite on the feints and shouts from Turcios. Turcios goes after a half-hearted spinning wheel kick, and Zahabi sprints forward to catch him spinning with a right. Zahabi keeps on kicking the leg, but his overhand rights brush past Turcios’ hair. The American kicks high, and it lands on the guard to little impact. Zahabi tries to throw the same strike, and it misses the mark. The accuracy rate for this fight is exceptionally low, as most strikes are either blocked or well short of their intended targets. Turcios comes out throwing hands, and Zahabi blocks each and every one and replies with a one-two. Zahabi’s leg kick may be his most successful strike, and Turcios pushes the pace but cannot connect with anything as Zahabi is slippery and evasive. Zahabi assaults the calf twice, forcing Turcios to switch stances briefly, and when Turcios returns to southpaw he lifts his leg repeatedly in anticipation of the kick. Zahabi slithers back and pops Turcios coming in. Turcios gives chase, throwing recklessly, but only a few of his punches come close to landing. Time expires to end this unexciting sparring match of a round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the middle to begin the final round, and Zahabi keeps his guard high to block any early strikes that come his way. Zahabi pounds on the inside of Turcios’ lead leg with a heavy kick, and Turcios switches stances to throw a kick but is miles away. Zahabi stops Turcios’ punches and kicks getting through, and his defense is solid but his offense is limited to low kicks and inaccurate counters. Turcios wings a right hand that is inches away, and he flicks out several jabs. Zahabi doubles up on leg kicks, and he swats away a punch and is similarly blocked when he attempts to load up on a right hand. Zahabi’s inside leg kick is paying dividends as Turcios’ wheel is slightly limited as he presents a minor limp. He does not slow, regardless of the damage, and he powers forward to throw punches that cannot find the mark. When Zahabi throws back, Turcios catches him mid-exchange with a pair of punches. Zahabi cleanly lands a low kick as Turcios ambles towards him, seeing the telegraphed strikes and playing matador to Turcios’ awkward bull. Turcios finally sits down on a punch, and Zahabi shrugs it off as if it never even landed. Turcios tosses up a light head kick, and Zahabi catches his plant leg on the way down with his shin. Turcios whiffs on a wheel kick, Zahabi wings a left hook that blows the hair back, and this fight is now mercifully over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Ricky Turcios via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Ricky Turcios

Angelo is very confident in Ricky Turcios due to his high volume and pace, contrasting with Zahabi's low output. He notes Turcios landed 200 strikes despite being taken down 6 times in his last fight. He sees Turcios as a parlay piece and already has a moneyline bet at -175. He compares the matchup to Brian Barbarena vs Robbie Lawler, where volume overcame power.

Already has a moneyline bet at -175; considers Turcios a parlay piece.
"I love ricky in this fight I'm very confident in the pick and I think he should be a nice parlay piece... I jumped on him at minus 175."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ricky Turcios

Big Brady picks Ricky Turcios due to his relentless activity and minute-winning ability. He notes that Turcios has many holes in his game (poor takedown defense, hittable, reckless) but believes Zahabi's low volume (2.82 significant strikes per minute) won't capitalize on them. He thinks if the fight goes to decision, Turcios will do enough to win. He acknowledges Zahabi could win by knockout if he lands clean, but leans toward Turcios by decision.

"give me ricky tercios the more active fighter to win this fight i think he gets it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ricky Turcios

Cody believes Turcios' relentless pace and cardio will overwhelm Zahabi, who fights infrequently and has low volume. He thinks Zahabi's only path is a knockout, but Turcios is durable and will outwork him over three rounds. He cites Zahabi's poor performances and lack of activity.

Mentions Turcios over 80.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
"i see ricky making a lot of mistakes all mistakes that aim as a hobby could capitalize on right but i mean again he fights so infrequently once a year sometimes shows up sometimes doesn't show up not a good …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)
Aiemann Zahabi

The host says he is picking Zahabi to win but does not place a bet on the fight. He mentions that Zahabi could knock out Turcios but is not super confident. He does not elaborate on reasoning beyond that.

"I'm picking zahabi to win"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ricky Turcios

Paul is interested in the over 2.5 rounds prop and leans Turcios due to Zahabi's inconsistency. He notes Zahabi has skills but rarely puts them together, while Turcios has a high work rate. He's not fully confident but sees Turcios as the likely winner.

Mentions over 2.5 rounds at -165 as a parlay leg.
"i'm kind of interested in over two and a half rounds minus 165 i think that's a half decent uh parley leg"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ricky Turcios

The Guru picks Ricky Turcios, noting Zahabi's inconsistency and that his KO win was over a padded-record opponent. He believes Turcios' chin and pace will carry him to a 29-28 decision, especially as Zahabi is older and Turcios has a reach advantage.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to be going with Ricky Turcios here."
KO (punch) R1 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aiemann Zahabi 1 9 of 11 81% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Drako Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aiemann Zahabi 1 9 of 11 81% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Drako Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aiemann Zahabi 9 of 11 81% 8 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 2
Drako Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 6 of 27 1 of 2 4 of 4 8 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aiemann Zahabi 9 of 11 81% 8 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 2
Drako Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 6 of 27 1 of 2 4 of 4 8 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Drako Rodriguez (140.5: Missed Weight)

Round 1
The first of several catchweight contests tonight comes to us next, in the form of a 141-pound affair between two finishers, who, like the previous match, have both fighters with a single decision win across their respective careers. Zahabi (7-2, 1-2 UFC) will have the pleasure of welcoming the heavy Rodriguez (7-1, 0-0 UFC) to the Octagon, and their match will be overseen by referee Mark Smith. A touch of gloves clocks in the fight, and Rodriguez is quick to take the center of the cage, and the two have a brief striking exchange. Rodriguez backs off and fires off a big right hand, and although he connects squarely with Zahabi, the Canadian does not flinch. Rodriguez presses forward into the clinch, and Zahabi is quick to break free and block an overhand right. Rodriguez wings a few punches and Zahabi covers up and backs off. Rodriguez nails the lead leg twice, and he advances to land a sharp uppercut. Zahabi circles away and stings Rodriguez with a jab, but he cannot take advantage of it. Rodriguez fires off a head kick that gets blocked, and a right hand that does not. Zahabi stumbles backwards but keeps his footing, only to take a strong kick to the calf. “The Great Drakolini” keeps his man at bay with several jabs that are more about touching his foe than doing any damage, and this disrupts Zahabi from getting anything going.
Out of nowhere, the Canadian sticks out a jab and winds up a monster right hand and unloads it square on the jaw. The strike crumples Rodriguez to the canvas on his side hard, who appears to be out cold. Zahabi leaps down to smack him on the side of the head, but it is academic at that point as Smith leaps in to stop the fight.
Although he hit the ground strangely and was dazed and confused with his arm trapped beneath him on his side, Rodriguez eventually comes to and is able to stand back up. What a wild knockout!

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Drako Rodriguez R1 3:05 via KO (Punch)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Drako Rodriguez

Daniel Levi is low on Aiemann Zahabi, believing he hasn't been the same since a devastating knockout loss to Ricardo Ramos in 2017. He notes Zahabi looked gun-shy against Vince Morales, who he considers low-level. Levi thinks Drako Rodriguez has more fighting spirit and opportunistic finishing ability, though he cautions that Rodriguez is not the second coming of Christ. He picks Rodriguez to win via something opportunistic, but is not confident enough to bet heavily.

"i got to go with draco via something opportunistic but i'm not you know running to the betting window you know all convicted"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.

Considering inside distance decision no action prop
"It is pretty clear that Jose is actually the better fighter. Even at his age, he is fast, he's clean, he's dangerous, he's durable, he's impossible to take down."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.

"I'm going to take Zahabi to win a very close competitive decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.

"I think Aldo, even in losses, has shown he is still very dangerous in the striking room."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo getting this one done. I'm going to say Jose Aldo gets a TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."