Career Averages - Islam Makhachev
Career Averages - Thiago Moises
Islam Makhachev
Thiago Moises
Islam Makhachev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 18 of 61 | 29% | 30 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 30 of 57 | 52% | 140 of 188 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 19:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:52 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 32 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 30 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 22 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 18 of 61 | 29% | 10 of 45 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 30 of 57 | 52% | 14 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 4 of 18 | 22% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)
Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.
Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.
Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.
Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.
Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.
The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.
Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.
Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.
Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.
The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.
Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 88 of 156 | 56% | 147 of 222 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 10:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 74 of 183 | 40% | 104 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 46 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 29 of 53 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 23 of 61 | 37% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 88 of 156 | 56% | 81 of 148 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 71 of 136 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 |
| Dustin Poirier | 74 of 183 | 40% | 53 of 159 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 51 of 157 | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 26 of 46 | 56% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Dustin Poirier | 24 of 58 | 41% | 18 of 51 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 47 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 24 | 75% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Dustin Poirier | 15 of 36 | 41% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 20 of 44 | 45% | 17 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 23 of 61 | 37% | 12 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 33 | 54% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.
Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.
Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.
Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.
Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.
Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.
The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.
Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.
Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.
James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.
Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 57 of 95 | 60% | 95 of 135 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 7:37 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 70 of 143 | 48% | 164 of 255 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 30 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 19 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 49 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 57 of 95 | 60% | 36 of 72 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 70 of 143 | 48% | 37 of 96 | 21 of 33 | 12 of 14 | 58 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 10 of 16 | 62% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 23 | 47% | 4 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 19 of 32 | 59% | 12 of 24 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 19 of 34 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 16 of 22 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 14 of 37 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 6 of 13 | 46% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 36 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.
Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.
Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.
Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.
Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.
Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.
Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 72 of 86 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 51 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 19 of 39 | 48% | 7 of 23 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 30 of 41 | 73% | 25 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Charles Oliveira | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Charles Oliveira | 18 of 23 | 78% | 16 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.
Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.
Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.
Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.
Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.
Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 30 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| King Green | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 30 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| King Green | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 |
| King Green | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 |
| King Green | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.
Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.
Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.
Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.
Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.
Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.
Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.
Thiago Moises - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 45 of 101 | 44% | 46 of 103 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Gauge Young | 1 | 122 of 226 | 53% | 131 of 237 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Gauge Young | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 14 of 38 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Gauge Young | 0 | 44 of 88 | 50% | 44 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 23 of 50 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gauge Young | 1 | 69 of 115 | 60% | 74 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 45 of 101 | 44% | 34 of 81 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 17 | 42 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Gauge Young | 122 of 226 | 53% | 62 of 157 | 27 of 34 | 33 of 35 | 114 of 211 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 8 of 13 | 61% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Gauge Young | 9 of 23 | 39% | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 14 of 38 | 36% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gauge Young | 44 of 88 | 50% | 19 of 60 | 12 of 14 | 13 of 14 | 43 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 23 of 50 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gauge Young | 69 of 115 | 60% | 41 of 81 | 15 of 20 | 13 of 14 | 62 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Young (-130); Moises (+110)
Round 1
Once a hot commodity off of the sole Brazilian season of Dana White’s Contender Series, Moises (19-9, 8-7 UFC) has regressed to the mean and is one defeat away from falling to .500 in the promotion. Young (10-3, 1-1 UFC) has gone one up and one down thus far, so he is looking to break out of that pattern and into greater heights. They will battle it out under the auspices of referee Jason Herzog, who will be keeping tabs on the 155ers for as long as they keep fighting.
There is no touch of gloves. Moises pressure immediately forward, backing Young to the fence and shooting in on his hips within 10 seconds. Young places his back against the wall to keep himself afloat, and as Moises keeps clinging to his man, the crowd grows quite restless. Moises ignores the boos and irritation from the audience and keeps tight to him. Young flips Moises over him, and Moises recovers quickly enough so both men stand up. Young tosses out a high kick to keep Moises honest, and he ducks a looping punch but cannot evade a front kick aimed at his jaw. Young probes with a jab and low kick, and Moises catches him in transition with a left hook. They jab at the same time, and Young just misses a looping punch as Moises kicks the lead calf. Young stays behind his jab.
Moises loads up on power, and Young sees it coming and also knows a takedown is soon to test him. Young stops the first effort, but the Brazilian redoubles his attempt and succeeds in putting Young down. Young wall-walks to stand up, and he gives his back up in the process. Moises hops onto his back and wraps his legs around the waist while flirting with a choke attempt. Moises wraps his forearm across the face and tries to squeeze it, but the American is able to fight it off and kick off the fencing to drop to his knees. Moises welcomes this as he is leaned against the cage, and he smacks Young in the face with an undercut sneakily beneath Young’s armpit. Young sells out all the way to turn about, and Moises does not entirely give up the position and has Young trapped in an awkward side-turned position that contorts his spine but is not about to force him to tap. Young breaks out and finds himself in armbar danger, and he stacks the Brazilian up and lands a few punches to conclude the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 2
There is a slight fist bump to kick off the round, and Young is quick to follow that bump with kicks from both limbs. Moises jabs to the body to open up a right hand, and Young does not fall for the latter. Young jabs the body with his heel, and he reaches out with a right hook. Moises chops at the front leg, and Young stumbles forward but is still more than willing to trade. The American digs a shot to the body and goes after an uppercut, and Moises is just out of range with the latter. Moises wraps a right hand around the ear and shoots for a single, with Young defending it and pushing off. Moises shoulder-rolls a heavy right hand but the jabs are continuing to score. Young jabs Moises up with a kick to the stomach and follows with a punch before he has to sprawl the incoming takedown. Moises bullies Young to the wire for a few seconds, and Young knows he cannot get ground out again and breaks out soon.
He proceeds to jab and cross Moises with short combinations, and he just misses with a step-in knee. Moises wants another takedown, but Young is not having it and shucks him away easily. Both men look to double up their jab and come over the top with a right hand, but neither is able to do so as the big rights are telegraphed. They pick at one another with low kicks and stay busy from up close, not overswinging anything and just selecting their places carefully. It is one after the other, Moises lands, Young fires back, Moises keeps on throwing and Young is ready for more. Moises shoots low for a takedown, and he gets pushed away and nearly booted in the face when standing up. The Brazilian manages to tackle Young over, and he comes up short with a hefty knee. Young puts his fists on Moises up high and to the chest, rolling with a right hand to press ever forward until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young
Round 3
Young offers a high-five, and Moises accepts it before the final frame ensues. Young gets back right where he left off, slowly pressing the action and outboxing the slugging Moises. Moises is loading up on sheer power, while Young is content to touch and move. Young pitches Moises to the side when Moises changes levels, and he delivers a stern uppercut to the jaw and staggers the Brazilian with a follow-up right. He also marks Moises’ face up on multiple places, including both cheeks and the bridge of the nose. Young steps in with a sharp elbow, and he tosses Moises to the side as Moises predictably shoots in on his hips. Young kicks Moises’ lead leg out from him as Moises is shooting for a takedown, and Moises flops to his back while Young raises in arms in the air. Moises stands up thanks to Herzog, and he steps in with a thudding elbow on the nose. Moises failed takedown is an even worse look when he falls to his back again when he does not get it. Young forces him to stand.
Moises tries to brawl, but he is far too slow while Young picks him apart with fast combinations. Young clips Moises behind the ear, sending the Brazilian collapsing to the mat, and he follows him down to bash him with punches and hammerfists. When there is no finish in sight, Young dances around to showboat and gets Herzog to bring him back upright. Young beats Moises with a left hand and points at it, and he is feeling himself and motioning in a Diaz-like manner any thing he lands flush. Moises stands firm and drills him with a right hand, and Young shakes it out to re-engage. Moises meets him with sheer power, hurling his right hand like he wants to knock the head of “Gee Money” into the third row. Young tanks the ones that connect and backs Moises to the wall, stinging him with an elbow but getting caught flush with a power right hand. Moises is swinging with hammers, and Young picks him apart and has his hands up to defend from the most dangerous of attacks. Moises punctuates the brawl with two punches and a head kick, and the lightweights hug it out after a hard-fought contest.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
The Official Result
Gauge Young def. Thiago Moises via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Gauge Young despite acknowledging Thiago Moises is good everywhere. He likes Gauge's aggression, scrambling, and forward pressure, believing he will do more and impress judges. He worries about Gauge cutting easily and bleeding, which could affect judging.
Big Brady picks Thiago Moises as an underdog, citing his elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Moises' inconsistency but believes he wins step-down fights. Brady points out Grant Dawson's vulnerability to takedowns and submissions, and predicts Moises will win by decision.
Cody picks Gauge Young, citing his youth, volume, and recent improvements. He notes that Thiago Moises is inconsistent and has taken a lot of damage. He also mentions that Moises' chin is a question mark after the Jared Gordon loss.
Daniel believes Moises is on a decline and has looked poor recently, while Young is improving and can push a pace that Moises struggles with. He thinks Young's hands and pressure will overwhelm Moises. He picks Young to get the biggest win of his career.
Young is a high-pressure striker with excellent cardio, while Moises has poor cardio and relies on grappling. Moises is passive on the feet and only shoots a few takedowns per fight. Young's takedown defense is good enough to scramble back up, and he will out-strike Moises significantly. This is a classic striker vs grappler where Young has a huge edge.
James picks Gauge Young to win, citing his durability, cardio, and pressure. He thinks Moises is on a downtrend and will struggle with Young's pace. Despite Moises being more skilled, James favors Young's will to win and stylistic advantages.
The host is hesitant but picks Moises by submission, thinking he will eventually find a position to put Young away. He notes that Moises is being overlooked due to his knockout loss to Jared Gordon, and that his BJJ and striking can be competitive. However, he needs a good number on the Moises submission prop to pull the trigger.
Paul also picks Gauge Young, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Young's volume and Moises' inconsistency. He mentions that Moises' durability is a concern and that Young is the fresher fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 1 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 1 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Moises | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Moises | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-110), Moises (-110)
Round 1
Lightweight veterans with technically equal records in the UFC—although one has a no contest—come to blows, with plans of remaining highly regarded in the talent-rich division. Gordon (20-7, 1 NC; 8-6, 1 NC UFC) is the one who also has the grey mark on his pace thanks to a clash of heads with Bobby Green, and has otherwise alternated wins and losses for a few years. The same can be said for Brazil’s Moises (19-8, 8-6 UFC), who is ready to continue the rivalry of his team of American Top Team against regional adversarial team Kill Cliff FC and its rep of Gordon. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep things on the up-and-up, but they are fine with one another and clap hands. The first strike thrown is a Moises body kick, which Gordon uses to easily sling his opponent to his back. Gordon practically walks into top control, and Moises wraps up his arms in an unorthodox armlock attack. Moises lets go of the lockup and lashes out with a short elbow off his back that opens a tiny cut on the top of Gordon’s forehead. Gordon responds with ample ground-and-pound of his own, smearing his blood all over the Brazilian’s head and chest. Moises works his way back up to his feet, ignoring the strikes lobbed at him so he can fight his way back up and away. They proceed to smack one another with low kicks, and Gordon darts in with a pair of punches that bounce off the guard. Leg kicks continue to fly, and they tag one another with single strikes. When Gordon ducks in to throw, Moises counters with a clean right hand over the top. “Flash” does not bat an eye, and instead lets Moises pitch a left hand at him.
This is exactly what he wants, as Gordon times a picture-perfect right hand that smashes into the American Top Team fighter’s chin and puts him down for the count. Moises’ head clatters off the mat when he collapses to the ground like a bird that’s had its wings clipped, and Gordon hammers the nail with a leaping right hand that gives commentator Michael Bisping flashbacks of when he took on Dan Henderson, cleanly separating Moises from his consciousness.
Before Hatley can get to them, Gordon gets one or two off that wake Moises back up, but they are merely academic as Gordon has dropped the hammer. Blood streaming down his face, Gordon stands up and shrugs, as if he knew he was going to do this all along. When Moises comes to, the two hug it out, but it is unclear if Moises knows the license plate number of the bus that just ran him over.
The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Thiago Moises R1 3:37 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Thiago Moises after going back and forth. He acknowledges that Jared Gordon has been screwed on scorecards and could be on a win streak, but trusts Moises's training and activity. He notes that Moises is a slick grappler with technical striking and that Gordon is inactive and not on as good a team. Angelo says likely no bets for this fight.
Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Gordon's losses are to tough competition in close decisions, and he thinks Gordon's takedown defense and chin hold up. He expects a close competitive decision win for Gordon.
The host finds this a tough puzzle but leans with Gordon's pace and pressure. He notes Moises has looked good against certain opponents but doesn't do well against guys who set the pace, and Gordon is exactly that. He expects Gordon to grind out a high pace, possibly get a late finish, but mostly win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.
The Guru picks Jared Gordon, citing a rule of thumb that beating Thiago Moises means you're good. He thinks Gordon has been robbed in recent decisions (Bobby Green, Nazareno Malegarie) and is better than his record. He acknowledges grappling concerns from the Grant Dawson loss but believes Gordon's fundamental grappling defense is strong. He predicts Gordon wins by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 1 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 53 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 6:36 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 | 16 of 48 | 33% | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 25 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 22 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 | 10 of 39 | 25% | 11 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 1 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 25 of 39 | 64% | 10 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 17 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 16 of 48 | 33% | 4 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 13 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 15 of 26 | 57% | 8 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 10 of 39 | 25% | 4 of 30 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 6 of 7 | 85% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moises (-410), Ramirez (+320)
Round 1
Originally expecting to face Brad Riddell in the co-main event slot, Moises (17-7, 6-5 UFC) instead tumbles down to the early prelims to take on late replacement and UFC debutant Ramirez (8-1, 0-0 UFC), who lost in an appearance on last year’s Contender Series. The two lightweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as the fighters consider but abandon a glove touch. The two start rapping the other’s calf with kicks one after the other, testing the waters and doing some work early. They proceed to take turns with these kicks until Moises decides to mix things up with a tackling double-leg takedown. Moises succeeds in placing Ramirez on his seat, and Ramirez turns to his side in hopes of finding a sweep. Moises shuts it down and shifts to half guard, where he slowly opens up with elbow strikes. Ramirez bucks and twists, but the heavy Brazilian is not going anywhere as he proceeds to smother and land shots. Ramirez uses all his might to pop up, but Moises drags him down from behind until Ramirez realizes he should not give up his back and turns over again. Moises leans down to potentially set up an arm-triangle choke, but with half guard on the other side, he is unable to find the right leverage. Ramirez scoots himself to the wall, but Moises drags him away from it so he can hope to pass. Moises lets it go so he can slash down with elbows, and he gets bucked off but this is the best thing for him. Ramirez turns to crawl away on his knees, and like a predatory animal, Moises pounces on his back. Moises almost immediately gets the hooks in and secures a body triangle, and as Ramirez turns over to his back, Moises is already fishing for a rear-naked choke. Ramirez hand-fights well enough to prevent the choke from getting close, and Moises slides arms back and forth in search of the sub. Moises softens his man up with a couple strikes, and Ramirez tries to swing back from behind his head. The round ends in this dominant position, with the horn blaring twice.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 2
The lightweights come together in the middle of the cage, and Ramirez pushes the pace by leading off with a whipping overhand right. As Ramirez tries to shove the Brazilian against the wall, Moises turns him about. The two jockey for position while tied up, and Moises tangles up the legs for a trip attempt but does not find it. Moises drives a knee to the chest as he looks for another entry, with a double that fails. This allows Ramirez to break free, and Moises chops down on his lead leg as he gets backed off with punches. Moises reaches out with a front kick, and leans back as a head kick whizzes past his face. Ramirez swings as hard as he can with a right hand, and the veteran shoots in for a double and drives Ramirez back to the wall. The two do a little slow dance when up close in the clinch, and Moises breaks free with an elbow and misses with a front kick by a matter of inches. Ramirez punches his way forward into a clinch, and he is turned around and smacked in the face a few times. Moises lets go to reset, and he kicks the calf of his opponent that is welted and swollen badly. Ramirez kicks back, but Moises aims at the same target again to make Ramirez recoil. As he does this, he fires off a front kick and stings Ramirez with an overhand right. Moises chops low and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the side of the head, and he calmly works his way forward, landing shots to chop away. Ramirez goes after two leg kicks of his own, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 3
Moises begins the round with a front kick, and
he knocks Ramirez off his feet with a vicious low kick. Ramirez hits the deck, and a ferocious Moises chases after him and whips four low kicks down reminiscent of Donald Cerrone against Myles Jury.
Ramirez grimaces in pain and Smith recognizes that he is done, and he waves off the fight. This is a statement performance for the Brazilian, who registers his first knockout as a UFC fighter by putting the newcomer away with leg kicks.
The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Mitch Ramirez R3 0:15 via TKO (Leg Kicks)
Angelo expects Moises to be a big favorite. He is a slick grappler who stays composed and works for submissions, with technical striking and solid low kicks to set up takedowns. Although Moises was taken down five times and mauled by Benoit Saint-Denis, Angelo notes that Ramirez is not on that level. He thinks Moises will win the striking exchanges and is good enough to defend takedowns or sweep off bottom. He will bet if the line is favorable.
Big Brady picks Thiago Moises to win by second-round submission. He views this as a levels fight, with Moises' BJJ and experience being far superior to Ramirez, who is coming in on short notice. He expects Moises to get a takedown and submit Ramirez.
Cody picks Thiago Moises, noting his experience against top competition and superior skills everywhere. He acknowledges Ramirez's danger as a short-notice debutant but believes Moises is better on the feet and on the ground. He warns about Moises' durability but expects him to win.
The host notes that Ramirez is stepping in on short notice and is less skilled and experienced than Moises. He expects Moises to have the technical striking advantage and eventually open up a club-and-sub opportunity to choke out Ramirez, getting back in the win column.
Paul agrees, stating Moises is better everywhere and has seen every trick Ramirez might have. He notes Ramirez's Contender Series loss and lack of high-level experience. He will not bet Ramirez.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!