Career Averages - Jéssica Andrade
Career Averages - Rose Namajunas
Jéssica Andrade - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 90 of 287 | 31% | 97 of 297 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 107 of 213 | 50% | 119 of 226 | 1 of 14 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 18 of 83 | 21% | 18 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 40 of 71 | 56% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 15 of 63 | 23% | 22 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 40 of 59 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 57 of 141 | 40% | 57 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 36 of 92 | 39% | 38 of 95 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 90 of 287 | 31% | 58 of 242 | 21 of 31 | 11 of 14 | 87 of 279 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 107 of 213 | 50% | 91 of 195 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 94 of 195 | 11 of 16 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 18 of 83 | 21% | 13 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 40 of 71 | 56% | 31 of 62 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 15 of 63 | 23% | 11 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 31 of 50 | 62% | 26 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 40 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 57 of 141 | 40% | 34 of 112 | 19 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 56 of 137 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 36 of 92 | 39% | 34 of 88 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 85 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Godinez has a giant grappling advantage and is the better fighter technically, but her fight IQ is questionable. He assumes she will make the right decisions and take Pepto before the fight. He thinks Andrade is a brute force brawler with limited skills, so Godinez should win if she doesn't do dumb things.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by second-round submission. He notes Andrade has been inconsistent and looks awful on the ground recently, with poor takedown defense. He thinks Godinez's path to victory is to mix in takedowns and grapple, as Andrade has been submitted many times. He worries about Godinez's fight IQ but trusts her to wrestle here. He mentions Godinez has a couple of submissions in the UFC and is working on her grappling.
The host expresses disappointment in Godinez's development but thinks she can handle Andrade's aggressive striking. He predicts Godinez will land enough takedowns in the first two rounds to grind out a decision, surviving the third round.
The Guru picks Jéssica Andrade to win by TKO in round two. He believes Andrade will be too overwhelming with her punches for Loopy Godinez. The Guru notes that Godinez is easily hittable and has had close fights with lower-level competition. He doesn't see Godinez finishing Andrade or taking her down and submitting her. Despite Andrade's recent losses, the Guru thinks she is a step above Godinez's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-298), Andrade (+240)
Round 1
Andrade (26-13, 17-11 UFC), the winningest female fighter in the company, would like nothing more than to add one more to her ledger. Standing in her way will be significant betting favorite and sentimental local favorite Jasudavicius (13-3, 7-2 UFC), who rides the longest win streak (four) of her career. Referee Jason Herzog clocks the flyweights in as they get down to business, starting off with a glove touch. Andrade takes the center of the Octagon, while Jasudavicius looks for a jab that is out of range early. Andrade rushes out with a right hand and then hops back, and she leans in with kicks on the inside and outside of the lead leg. Jasudavicius kicks her back once, and she tags the Brazilian with a one-two. Andrade smiles at her. Andrade tosses out a right hand and a low kick, and her foe catches her with a long right hand. When Andrade tries to strike back, Jasudavicius lifts her in the air and slams her down hard. Jasudavicius starts beating on the former strawweight champ, landing punches and taking her back. Andrade looks to crawl back up, and Jasudavicius is a 125-pound weight on her back dragging her down. Jasudavicius gets one hook in and starts fishing for a rear-naked choke. When there is no submission, Jasudavicius smacks her on both sides of the head.
Jasudavicius flattens Andrade out, and she wraps up a rear-naked choke that is tight as a drum. Andrade posts off and tries to grit it out, but there is nothing she can do at this point in that position. With her other hand, “Bate Estaca” taps out
, and the roof on the building practically blows off. The Canadian releases the grip and rushes to her corner to celebrate, who award her with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as a prize for the career-best triumph. It was smooth sailing for the Canadian, who barely got touched by one of the most dangerous women to ever grace the cage.
The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Jessica Andrade R1 2:40 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo is confident in Jasmine Jasudavicius, calling it a tailor-made fight for her. He notes Jasmine is a wrestler with great hips and cardio, while Andrade is a bully without great takedown defense. He expresses minor concern about Jasmine's win streak and whether she's truly top-tier, but ultimately picks her. He mentions possibly parlaying her with Mike Malott.
Big Brady is confident in Jasudavicius, citing her size, strength, and ground game. He notes Andrade has poor takedown defense and looks like a white belt off her back. He predicts Jasudavicius will dominate on the ground, eventually securing a submission in the second round, possibly a front choke or crucifix TKO.
The host views this as a perfect stylistic matchup for the Canadian Jasudavicius, expecting her to avoid Andrade's power striking and use her size and reach advantage to take the fight to the ground. He predicts she will land big shots from top position and get a TKO victory.
The MMA Guru picks Jasudavicius, noting her recent dominance and improvement. He thinks Andrade loses presence at flyweight and can be overwhelmed by a scrappy, larger opponent. He expects Jasudavicius to mix striking and grappling, eventually securing takedowns and control, winning by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 50 of 140 | 35% | 62 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 117 of 208 | 56% | 119 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 74 | 44% | 33 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 49 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 50 of 140 | 35% | 33 of 114 | 13 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 48 of 136 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 117 of 208 | 56% | 67 of 151 | 38 of 45 | 12 of 12 | 106 of 197 | 9 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 24 of 56 | 42% | 16 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 74 | 44% | 14 of 53 | 12 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 11 of 37 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 37 of 69 | 53% | 20 of 47 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 64 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 15 of 47 | 31% | 8 of 37 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 47 of 65 | 72% | 33 of 51 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Natália Silva because she is very well-rounded, technical, and has power that lasts into the third round. He believes she is the better fighter and as long as she doesn't let Andrade bully her, she should win. He notes that Silva has beaten prospects and veterans alike.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He is high on Silva, noting her impressive performances and striking. He acknowledges Andrade is a tough test and has revived her career, but believes Silva is the much better striker and may even drop Andrade. Brady thinks the odds are a bit disrespectful to Andrade but still favors Silva.
Cody believes Silva's size, speed, and counter-punching will be too much for Andrade, who struggles at 125 lbs against longer fighters. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal issues but respects her toughness. He thinks Silva can win by decision or knockout, but does not like the -300 price. He picks Silva but is not betting the moneyline.
Daniel is high on Natália Silva, calling her one of the best prospects in women's MMA. He praises her movement, takedown defense, athleticism, and the fact that she paid her dues on the regional scene. He thinks Andrade's charging-forward style is a bad matchup against Silva's speed and accuracy. While he respects Andrade's evolution, he believes Silva is catching her at a great time and picks her to win.
Silva is a technical striker with excellent lateral movement and accuracy. Andrade is a power puncher who struggles with fighters who stick and move. Silva can keep the fight at range and potentially land a knockout. The pick is Silva by decision, with a sprinkle on Silva by KO if odds are favorable.
Paul sees Silva as faster, bigger, and more technical, with a counter-striking style that can neutralize Andrade's blitzes. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal distractions (divorce, manager issues) but acknowledges her toughness. He believes Silva can win by decision or even knockout, but is wary of the -300 price. He leans Silva but does not love the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Jéssica Andrade. He praises Silva's range control and ability to fight on the back foot. He notes Andrade has been outstruck by lesser fighters like Erin Blanchfield and struggles at flyweight. He highlights Silva's 11-fight win streak and her dominant UFC wins over Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and others. He believes Silva is young (27) and still improving.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 89 of 180 | 49% | 124 of 220 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 82 of 228 | 35% | 94 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 49 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 42 of 86 | 48% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 107 | 32% | 35 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 31 of 85 | 36% | 32 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 89 of 180 | 49% | 35 of 110 | 14 of 18 | 40 of 52 | 79 of 165 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 82 of 228 | 35% | 70 of 207 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 77 of 220 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 14 of 23 | 60% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 42 of 86 | 48% | 21 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 16 | 35 of 75 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 35 of 107 | 32% | 34 of 104 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 104 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 71 | 46% | 12 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 31 of 85 | 36% | 27 of 75 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.
Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.
Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.
Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.
Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.
Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 | 53 of 107 | 49% | 53 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 49 of 114 | 42% | 50 of 115 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 3 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 25 of 57 | 43% | 25 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 53 of 107 | 49% | 27 of 76 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 22 | 43 of 90 | 6 of 12 | 4 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 49 of 114 | 42% | 38 of 100 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 47 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 27 of 50 | 54% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 14 | 18 of 37 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 24 of 57 | 42% | 15 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 57 | 45% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 53 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 25 of 57 | 43% | 23 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dern, citing her improved striking and elite BJJ. He notes Andrade's takedown defense is poor and Dern can pull guard or climb for submissions. He already bet a full unit on Dern at -177 and is confident she gets it done.
Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by first-round submission. He believes Dern is improving her wrestling and striking, while Andrade is on a decline and doesn't seem to care anymore. He notes Andrade has been easily submitted recently by top grapplers, and Dern is the best grappler in the division. Brady thinks one takedown from Dern will end the fight quickly.
Cody picks Dern, noting Andrade's recent decline and disinterest in fights. He highlights Dern's improvements in striking and wrestling under Henry Cejudo, and her durability. He believes Dern can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Andrade's best path (wrestling) is nullified by Dern's BJJ.
James picks Mackenzie Dern to win, though he is annoyed at the -200 price. He thinks Andrade has stylistic advantages on the feet with more power, but Dern has durability, pace, and grappling to offset that. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to dominate and finish, and Andrade has been finished in her last three losses. He suggests playing Dern inside the distance rather than moneyline.
Andrade's power will be the difference. Dern has never been hit by someone with Andrade's power and will struggle to close distance. Andrade will stuff takedowns and make Dern pay every time she crashes the pocket. Expects Andrade to land big strikes and potentially find a knockout victory in the first or second round. The line at +165 is a value due to recency bias from Dern's win over Hill.
Paul agrees, emphasizing Andrade's regression and Dern's upward trajectory. He notes Andrade has looked flat and disinterested, while Dern is coming into her prime with improved cardio and focus. He thinks Dern wins wherever the fight goes, and that Andrade's wrestling won't be enough.
The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing Andrade is on a losing streak and has lost confidence. He notes Dern's improved grappling and boxing, citing her dominant win over Angela Hill. He predicts Dern will submit Andrade in round two, as Andrade has been vulnerable on her back recently.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 25 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 23 of 49 | 46% | 3 of 20 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 27 | 40% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 19 of 43 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 30 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.
Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.
Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.
James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.
Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.
Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.
The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.
Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.
The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.
Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.
The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.
Zane picks Andrade, noting that Yan's success comes against opponents who can't make her pay for her volume, but Andrade has the physicality and power to do so. He points out that Andrade doesn't gas out and that Yan's game plan of stuffing takedowns and outworking won't work against Andrade. Zane compares Yan's style to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but says Yan is not Joanna.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 53 of 143 | 37% | 56 of 147 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 51 of 120 | 42% | 53 of 124 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 40 of 106 | 37% | 43 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 44 of 100 | 44% | 46 of 104 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 53 of 143 | 37% | 28 of 107 | 5 of 16 | 20 of 20 | 50 of 137 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 51 of 120 | 42% | 38 of 105 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 50 of 117 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 40 of 106 | 37% | 22 of 80 | 4 of 12 | 14 of 14 | 37 of 100 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 44 of 100 | 44% | 32 of 86 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 43 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 13 of 37 | 35% | 6 of 27 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 7 of 20 | 35% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Andrade, even on short notice. He highlights Andrade's technical improvement in her last fight against Lauren Murphy, where she showed precision rather than just bullying. He believes Andrade's BJJ black belt and experience against top competition will neutralize Blanchfield's grappling. Angelo notes the line moved from -190 to -170 and he placed a two-unit bet at -150. He dismisses comparisons to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting Shevchenko uses judo while Blanchfield uses wrestling, which Andrade can defend.
Big Brady thinks this is too soon for Blanchfield, who has only beaten lower-level competition like Molly McCann. He notes that Andrade only gets dominated by elite grapplers like Valentina Shevchenko, and Blanchfield is not on that level yet. He worries about Blanchfield's takedown success, as she was 0-for-4 against JJ Aldrich. He predicts Andrade will win by knockout, likely in the second round, as Blanchfield has nothing for her on the feet.
Cody initially liked Blanchfield at plus money due to Andrade taking the fight on short notice and Blanchfield's suffocating style, but as the line tightened he shifted to Andrade. He notes Andrade is a proven commodity with better striking and five-round experience, and that she wouldn't take a fight she couldn't win. However, he acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling threat and says he wants to watch weigh-ins before betting.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Andrade is a huge step up for Blanchfield. He notes that Blanchfield's striking is very undeveloped, especially her kicks, and that Andrade's power will be a shock. He also points out that Blanchfield struggled with Aldrich's counter striking and maneuvering, and Andrade is a much more physical and powerful version of that. Connor sees the fight as too much too soon for Blanchfield.
Jacob is a self-proclaimed Blanchfield hater and picks Andrade confidently. He criticizes Blanchfield's lack of a plan B when things go wrong, citing her fight against JJ Aldrich where she was dominated until a Hail Mary guillotine. Jacob believes Andrade is a better striker and will stuff takedowns, leading to Blanchfield being embarrassed. He compares it to Whittaker vs Vettori and Emmett vs Rodriguez, where one-dimensional wrestlers were exposed. He is not worried about short notice because Andrade wouldn't take the fight if she wasn't ready.
Andrade's relentless pressure, power, and strength will be too much for Blanchfield, who struggled with takedowns against JJ Aldrich and may not be ready for this step up. Andrade's durability and takedown defense should keep her safe, and she will eventually land a knockout, likely in the third or fourth round.
Paul likes Andrade, citing her recent performance against Lauren Murphy where she looked great and nearly finished her. He questions the comparison to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting that outside of Shevchenko, no one has easily taken Andrade down. He struggles to get behind Blanchfield at the current price, calling it a big step up in competition. He says if the line keeps moving toward Blanchfield, he'll be forced to jump on Andrade.
The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, stating she hits different and is a step above other flyweights except Shevchenko. He believes Andrade's power will break Blanchfield's nose early, forcing panic takedowns. He recalls Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldridge where she struggled before getting a guillotine, and thinks Andrade will be too much. He notes Andrade is a 2-to-1 favorite and calls those odds good, predicting a first-round TKO.
Zane picks Andrade because Blanchfield's striking is still raw and relies on pressure and volume, but she struggles against skilled or physically imposing opponents. Andrade is both, with power that Blanchfield has never faced. Blanchfield's takedown entries are not clean enough to consistently get Andrade down, and Andrade's speed and power will be overwhelming. Zane notes that Blanchfield is a good prospect but not complete enough to win this fight.
Rose Namajunas - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 51 of 133 | 38% | 63 of 147 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 26 of 94 | 27% | 46 of 119 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 15 of 44 | 34% | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 13 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 25 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 33 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 8 of 37 | 21% | 8 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 51 of 133 | 38% | 25 of 95 | 8 of 14 | 18 of 24 | 50 of 132 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 26 of 94 | 27% | 11 of 64 | 3 of 13 | 12 of 17 | 26 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 15 of 44 | 34% | 10 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 9 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 13 of 39 | 33% | 4 of 22 | 1 of 6 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 8 of 27 | 29% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 28 of 62 | 45% | 11 of 41 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 11 | 27 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 8 of 37 | 21% | 4 of 26 | 1 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Natália Silva, calling her faster, cleaner, and a better athlete. He praises her footwork and timing. He acknowledges Rose Namajunas's experience and fight IQ but believes Silva's youth and speed will prevail. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a likely lock.
Big Brady believes Silva is one of the best flyweights, with elite takedown defense (92%) and great striking volume and power. He thinks Rose will struggle similar to her fight with Fiorot, and Silva will piece her up over 15 minutes for a dominant decision win.
Cody confidently picks Natália Silva, citing her 92% takedown defense and striking volume. He believes Rose Namajunas struggles at 125 pounds and won't be able to secure takedowns. Cody expects Silva to win a unanimous decision, outworking Rose on the feet.
Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that Rose Namajunas has not adapted well to flyweight. He notes that Rose's power and speed have diminished, and that she now has to outwork opponents—a style she never excelled at. Connor points out that Silva is faster, hits harder, and throws more, and that Rose's best chance (wrestling) is untested against Silva. He believes Silva's dynamism will be too much for Rose to handle.
Daniel Vreeland picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He praises Silva's confidence, well-rounded game, and impressive wins over former champions. He notes that Silva is younger, hungrier, and has speed that matches Namajunas. Vreeland believes Silva will beat Namajunas decisively and earn a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko.
James is confident in Silva, noting her superior footwork neutralizes Namajunas's best asset. He expects Silva to win via decision, possibly hurting Namajunas with kicks but not finishing her. He mentions Silva's taekwondo background and that she has cashed for him multiple times.
The host leans towards Silva by decision, praising her distance management and blitzing style. However, he finds the -410 line too wide and believes Rose Namajunas is live as a plus-310 underdog. He notes Namajunas's experience, improved grappling, and ability to counter mobile strikers. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a no-brainer and recommends betting on Namajunas for value.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Silva's speed and combination punching. He doubts Rose can get the wrestling going and believes Silva's quickness will overwhelm her. Paul sees a decision win for Silva, noting that a knockout prop is not worth the price.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, praising her kicking game and ability to fight off the back foot. He notes that Rose Namajunas often leaves fights close and lacks offensive grappling at flyweight. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.
Zane picks Natália Silva confidently, highlighting her incredible speed and high output. He notes that Silva's bad defensive habits (chin in the air) are mitigated by her speed and ability to counter, and that she has hurt every opponent she's faced. Zane argues that Rose Namajunas has lost power and speed at flyweight, and that she can no longer rely on fight-changing shots. He believes Silva's volume and pace will overwhelm Rose over three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 1 | 25 of 86 | 29% | 46 of 118 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:33 |
| Miranda Maverick | 0 | 25 of 74 | 33% | 52 of 108 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 17 of 59 | 28% | 18 of 60 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Miranda Maverick | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 9 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Miranda Maverick | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 1 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Miranda Maverick | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 25 of 86 | 29% | 22 of 75 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Miranda Maverick | 25 of 74 | 33% | 14 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 17 of 59 | 28% | 15 of 50 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Miranda Maverick | 20 of 58 | 34% | 11 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 20 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 5 of 17 | 29% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miranda Maverick | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 3 of 10 | 30% | 2 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Miranda Maverick | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose because she is the better striker with superior footwork and technique. He acknowledges Miranda's wrestling threat but believes Rose can defend takedowns and out-strike her. He expresses concern about Rose's training situation but hopes she strings it together like she did against Tracy Cortez.
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas by decision. He believes Rose is the better fighter overall, with superior striking and the ability to get takedowns against Maverick's sub-50% takedown defense. He worries slightly about Maverick's strength but notes Rose has done well at flyweight. He thinks Rose should win at least two rounds in a three-round fight.
Connor picks Namajunas, agreeing that Maverick is a 'Jake Matthews of women's flyweight'—athletic but aimless, with no clear idea how to win. He notes that Namajunas is much better in the clinch than she used to be and that Maverick's wrestling entries are poor. Connor believes Namajunas's speed, accuracy, and combination punching will allow her to outwork Maverick, and that Maverick's tendency to float and try things without a plan will be her undoing.
This is a closer fight than the odds suggest, but Namajunas's striking will reign supreme. She may have issues with Maverick's strength and clinch work, but she will get into open space, land more damage, and win a clear decision.
The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, calling her a much better technical martial artist. He notes her grappling defense and standup are superior, and she has size at flyweight. He expects a unanimous decision win, 30-27, as Rose outclasses Maverick everywhere.
Zane picks Namajunas, citing her superior craft, movement, and jab-heavy striking as a clear advantage over Maverick's aimless, unprincipled game. He notes that Maverick lacks a clear process and often gets caught up striking when she should wrestle, while Namajunas is accurate, fast, and effective at kicking range. Zane believes Namajunas can outpoint Maverick over three rounds, as Maverick has consistently lost to fighters with a strong game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 110 of 281 | 39% | 193 of 387 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 8:54 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 94 of 245 | 38% | 101 of 254 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 19 of 68 | 27% | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 30 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 23 of 65 | 35% | 26 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 48 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 40 of 93 | 43% | 43 of 97 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 25 of 79 | 31% | 25 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 5 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 55 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 110 of 281 | 39% | 81 of 248 | 15 of 16 | 14 of 17 | 103 of 269 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Rose Namajunas | 94 of 245 | 38% | 68 of 212 | 18 of 24 | 8 of 9 | 91 of 241 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 19 of 68 | 27% | 11 of 58 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 30 of 61 | 49% | 22 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 25 of 67 | 37% | 21 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 25 of 65 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 23 of 65 | 35% | 17 of 58 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Erin Blanchfield | 11 of 28 | 39% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Rose Namajunas | 9 of 21 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Erin Blanchfield | 40 of 93 | 43% | 29 of 82 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 40 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 25 of 79 | 31% | 16 of 67 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Erin Blanchfield | 15 of 25 | 60% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Rose Namajunas | 7 of 19 | 36% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas confidently, calling her an all-time great and a better striker than Erin Blanchfield. He notes Blanchfield's inability to get takedowns was exposed against Manon Fiorot, and without that, she is stuck in a striking match with a superior striker. He thinks five rounds help Rose, as she can afford to lose a round if taken down. He placed a half unit bet on Rose at plus 100 (even money).
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision. He questions Erin Blanchfield's wrestling, noting her low takedown accuracy (33%) and failure to take down opponents like Fiorot and Santos. He believes on the feet, Rose is clearly superior, and even if taken down, Rose's scrambling is good. Brady likes the plus money and thinks the big cage favors Rose.
Cody picks Rose Namajunas as an underdog, arguing that Blanchfield's takedown struggles against Manon Fiorot (0 for 3) and Taila Santos (0 for 14) show she can't reliably take down elite grapplers. He believes Rose's striking, footwork, and takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes Rose's experience in five-round fights and her ability to mix in takedowns herself.
Daniel Vreeland picks Erin Blanchfield to win, arguing that the line is influenced by recency bias from Blanchfield's loss to Manon Fiorot. He points out that Rose Namajunas has poor takedown defense (under 60%) compared to Fiorot's 93%, and that Blanchfield's grappling is a different level—she can take the back and submit opponents. Vreeland expects Blanchfield to pressure Namajunas, get takedowns, and potentially finish via ground-and-pound or submission.
Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win inside the distance, emphasizing her grappling advantage. He notes Rose has been taken down in recent fights and that Blanchfield's wrestling will be decisive. He believes Rose has lost some athleticism and that Blanchfield can finish via submission, likely a rear-naked choke.
Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements, and that will get her a victory over Blanchfield. She will win at least three of the five rounds by out-pointing and out-damaging Blanchfield, winning on the scorecards and positioning herself for a title shot.
Paul sides with Rose but is less confident, expecting a close split decision. He notes that Blanchfield's path to victory is through takedowns, but Rose has shown improved takedown defense and can win on the feet. He mentions the common opponent Jessica Andrade, where Rose won by decision and Blanchfield by submission, but sees the fight as competitive. He plans to bet the split decision prop rather than the moneyline.
The Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Erin Blanchfield, calling Blanchfield overrated. He praises Namajunas's technical skills, scrambles, and wrestling reactions. He notes Blanchfield's poor performance against Manon Fiorot and believes Namajunas will win as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 1 | 96 of 180 | 53% | 119 of 215 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:36 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 58 of 198 | 29% | 85 of 233 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 1 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 27 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 11 of 41 | 26% | 12 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 15 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 17 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 12 of 44 | 27% | 15 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 30 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 21 of 61 | 34% | 36 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 96 of 180 | 53% | 66 of 146 | 17 of 20 | 13 of 14 | 93 of 175 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 58 of 198 | 29% | 31 of 162 | 14 of 17 | 13 of 19 | 52 of 189 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 26 of 50 | 52% | 16 of 39 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 12 of 43 | 27% | 4 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 10 | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 26 of 46 | 56% | 16 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 11 of 41 | 26% | 7 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 11 of 28 | 39% | 8 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 12 of 44 | 27% | 7 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 28 of 44 | 63% | 21 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 21 of 61 | 34% | 12 of 50 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas, citing her superior striking and overall skill. He believes Tracy Cortez's path to victory is through wrestling, but doubts she can take Rose down for 25 minutes, especially since Cortez was training for a three-round fight and now faces five rounds at elevation. He notes that Rose was taken down four times by Amanda Ribas, but Ribas used clinch tosses rather than traditional shots, which are easier to defend. Angelo plans to have multiple bets on Rose.
Cody picks Rose Namajunas, citing her experience at altitude, full camp, and superior striking. He notes Tracy Cortez's inactivity and short notice, and believes Rose's wrestling defense and offensive takedowns will be key. He expects a decision win for Rose.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tracy Cortez to upset Rose Namajunas. He argues that Cortez has a legitimate wrestling background, which historically gives Rose trouble, and that Rose is a 'hot and cold' fighter who struggles when faced with adversity. He notes Cortez's 11-fight win streak and that she was already preparing for a fight next week, so short notice isn't a major issue. He also mentions Rose's age and mileage, suggesting she may be slowing down. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and prefers the plus 185 underdog.
Rose Namajunas has the striking advantage and the cardio edge, especially at altitude. Cortez will land some takedowns, but over 25 minutes, Namajunas will land better strikes and even some takedowns of her own late, cruising to a decision. The line is a bit wide, but the former champion reigns supreme.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Rose's full camp, altitude advantage, and five-round experience. He points out that Cortez's wrestling has been neutralized by upper-echelon opponents and that Rose's scrambling ability will nullify takedowns. He sees Rose winning by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 83 of 270 | 30% | 137 of 342 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 93 of 188 | 49% | 169 of 281 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 6:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 16 of 47 | 34% | 30 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 23 of 34 | 67% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 15 of 49 | 30% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 43 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 31 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 10 of 39 | 25% | 29 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 45 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 24 of 85 | 28% | 25 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 83 of 270 | 30% | 39 of 195 | 19 of 42 | 25 of 33 | 76 of 259 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 |
| Amanda Ribas | 93 of 188 | 49% | 45 of 124 | 44 of 60 | 4 of 4 | 81 of 176 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 16 of 47 | 34% | 8 of 33 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 14 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 23 of 34 | 67% | 6 of 16 | 16 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 15 of 49 | 30% | 7 of 34 | 3 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 27 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 18 of 50 | 36% | 10 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
| Amanda Ribas | 19 of 36 | 52% | 11 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 10 of 39 | 25% | 3 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 7 of 25 | 28% | 4 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 24 of 85 | 28% | 11 of 61 | 9 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 23 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 25 of 54 | 46% | 12 of 36 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite rooting for Amanda Ribas. He acknowledges Rose's superior skills and accomplishments but is concerned about her mental state and training camp. He notes that Rose has not looked bad in recent losses, being outstruck by a larger striker in Manon Fiorot and having a boring fight with Carla Esparza. He hopes Ribas wins but cannot pick against Rose's talent.
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas, stating she is the much better fighter with a better resume. He notes Rose is the better striker, has good grappling, and has gone five rounds before. He points out Ribas is less durable (knocked out three times) and this is her first five-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Rose.
Cody acknowledges Rose's technical skills and well-rounded game, but highlights her mental inconsistency and tendency to have flat performances like the Carla Esparza fight. He notes that Rose is capable of looking like a -500 favorite or just handing rounds away. He ultimately picks Rose but with hesitancy due to these red flags.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Amanda Ribas if the fight goes past the first two rounds, citing Rose's tendency to fade or lose focus when extended. He notes Ribas has better output, wrestling, and durability in later rounds, while Rose's path is an early knockout. He acknowledges Rose's danger but prefers the dog at plus money.
Namajunas has superior technical striking and should be able to set traps and land clean shots. Ribas is durable but leaves openings and has been finished by technical strikers before. Namajunas should stop takedowns and control the striking, likely finishing by TKO in the third round. The under on 4.5 rounds is favored, indicating a finish is expected.
Paul points out that Amanda Ribas has been bouncing between weight classes and hasn't filled out her frame at 125. He credits Rose's performance against Manon Fiorot, where she fought through a broken hand, and believes Rose will learn from her flat performance against Carla Esparza. He picks Rose but acknowledges the possibility of another lackluster showing.
The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Amanda Ribas, citing Rose's shot placement and five-round experience. He thinks Ribas' chin is suspect and that Rose will hurt her on the feet. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after dropping Ribas with a punch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 58 of 225 | 25% | 62 of 232 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 60 of 150 | 40% | 60 of 152 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 18 of 88 | 20% | 18 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 23 of 56 | 41% | 23 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 19 of 69 | 27% | 23 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 21 of 68 | 30% | 21 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 22 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon Fiorot | 58 of 225 | 25% | 39 of 197 | 15 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 53 of 214 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Rose Namajunas | 60 of 150 | 40% | 32 of 107 | 15 of 26 | 13 of 17 | 59 of 148 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manon Fiorot | 18 of 88 | 20% | 14 of 82 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 23 of 56 | 41% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 8 of 11 | 23 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manon Fiorot | 19 of 69 | 27% | 11 of 55 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 17 of 62 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 15 of 40 | 37% | 10 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manon Fiorot | 21 of 68 | 30% | 14 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rose Namajunas | 22 of 54 | 40% | 11 of 39 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiorot (-185), Namajunas (+154)
Round 1
The bout that likely holds the greatest immediate title implications today comes in the co-main event, between two flyweights. Competing in MMA on French soil for the first time, Nice-born Fiorot (10-1, 5-0 UFC) hopes that a win over former champ Namajunas (11-5, 9-4 UFC) will propel her to the top of the weight class. On the other side of the equation, “Thug Rose” will be making her first jaunt to 125 pounds after multiple championship reigns down at strawweight. The size difference is not as significant as some might expect, and the women will have upwards of 15 minutes to state their case as elite members of the division. As referee Rich Mitchell stands by, the two ladies decide against bumping fists. Namajunas snaps out a quick right hand, and Fiorot responds with a left. Namajunas lands a low kick, and she pushes off with a side kick as Fiorot crowds her. Namajunas misses with a back fist, and Fiorot lands with a stern right hook. Fiorot stands fearlessly in front of her opponent, and she misses with a one-two and tries to catch her with a second. Namajunas slides to the side and sneak out a left hook. Fiorot catches Namajunas before the former champ can get off a combination, and she connects with a body shot when Namajunas closes the distance. Namajunas kicks low and shoots for a single, and the Frenchwoman tosses her aside with little effort. Fiorot keeps her range with a low kick and lunging jab, and her kicks are successfully keeping Namajunas at bay. Fiorot gets off a jab and a one-two, and Namajunas parries the latter. Namajunas beats Fiorot to the punch with a left hand, and she lands this same punch two more times. Namajunas kicks the lead leg, and Fiorot backs her off with short combinations of punches. Namajunas lands one kick and takes three punches off the top before she can reset. Namajunas manages to get in a single left, and Fiorot ignores it. Fiorot misses with a strike, and Namajunas slips her and connects cleanly with a left hand. As the former champ blocks a kick, she meanders forward and evades the other strikes with decent head movement. Namajunas drops down to her knees to snatch up a single, and Fiorot shuts it down and gets away. Fiorot lands cleanly with a left hand on the nose, and she bats Namajunas away with a side kick. The round ends with Fiorot jabbing.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Round 2
Between rounds, Namajunas informs her corner that she broke her right pink finger, and partner Pat Barry says “that’s alright, you don’t need her finger.” Namajunas is not discouraged despite the potential injury, and she is ready to resume action. Namajunas gets in Fiorot’s face early with a flurry of punches, and Fiorot stays composed and does not take many strikes cleanly. Fiorot boxes Namajunas up with a few shots ending with a short right hook, and two punches send Namajunas off-balance. Namajunas topples over, and she climbs to her knees and up as Fiorot rushes at her. Namajunas fights her way out of the clinch, only to absorb a flush knee to the body. Namajunas swipes out with a left, and her strikes do not have near the impact compared to her opponent’s – and the size difference does appear to be widening the competitive gap between the two. Fiorot takes a hook kick on the nose, and she leans back to dodge a subsequent spinning wheel kick in the nick of time. Fiorot spams punches, and Namajunas evades every single one and comes back with a right hand over the top. Fiorot times a head kick as Namajunas comes in on her, and Namajunas is able to respond with a huge right hand that shakes Fiorot up at the same time Fiorot tosses a side kick. Namajunas uses the moment to pursue a takedown, but Fiorot outmuscles her and keeps herself upright before breaking free. Namajunas lands a right hand on the break, and she holds her guard high to defend against a kick. Both women swing at the same time and duck down, and their heads clack together as a sizeable cut opens on Fiorot’s right temple. Fiorot pays it no mind and tells Mitchell she is fine, and the blood flow is not presenting any issues. Namajunas times a left hand on that target, and she gets pushed back from a side kick. Fiorot sweeps the leg, and she absorbs a good right hand on the way out. Namajunas scores a short left, but Fiorot lands two back at her. Namajunas swings hard, and she does land a left hook, only for Fiorot to completely ignore it as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Round 3
There is no plan on a glove touch to start the last round, and instead Namajunas is ready to go to battle and try to pull off a comeback. Namajunas lets go with a head kick and shoots for a single, and Fiorot blocks the former and stuffs the latter. Namajunas resets and chops at the lead leg, and she darts forward with a pair of punches that whiz past the Frenchwoman. Namajunas whips a left hand over the top, and she lands another before changing levels. Fiorot will not allow herself to be taken down, and she bucks out of the posture and gets back to kickboxing range. Fiorot gets off a stomp kick to the knee, and Namajunas rushes at her opponent only to miss wide. Namajunas sticks Fiorot during an exchange, and Fiorot retaliates with a trio of punches. Fiorot comes up just short when trying to counter a leg kick, and she absorbs a flush right hand but keeps on moving. The former champ scores a right hand, but it is one-and-done as Fiorot is well away from any strikes that could possibly follow. Fiorot snipes with her jab and swiping right hook, using it to stop Namajunas from getting on the inside. Namajunas chases after Fiorot, and they trade head kicks – Fiorot’s lands much harder. Namajunas tries to cut off the cage, but Fiorot is elusive and her timing is erratic enough to not let Namajunas track her down. Namajunas dings her foe with three left hooks, and Fiorot slips but gathers herself and leans back against the wall instead of falling down. Namajunas looks for a few strikes, and Fiorot breaks off and escapes. Namajunas continues her pursuit, and Fiorot gets out of danger and watches a spin kick soar past her as time elapses.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
The Official Result
Manon Fiorot def. Rose Namajunas via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident Manon Fiorot dominates, citing her size, power, and volume. He notes Rose Namajunas is moving up in weight and lacks volume compared to Manon. He points out Manon has landed more strikes in each of her last five wins than Rose did in five-round fights. He has parlayed Manon with Ange Loosa.
Big Brady picks Fiorot, citing her size, strength, power, and volume advantage over the smaller Namajunas moving up from strawweight. He doubts Rose can outgrapple, outvolume, or knock out Fiorot. He expects Fiorot to win a decision, though he acknowledges Rose's striking talent and calls it an interesting test.
Cody picks Fiorot due to size and strength advantages at flyweight, and questions Rose's motivation after a lackluster performance against Esparza. He notes Rose's striking advantages were not used in that fight and she has been off for a year. Fiorot's kicking game and French crowd support are key factors. Cody sees Rose's offensive wrestling as a potential path but doubts she can take down or hold down a strong flyweight.
Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot, arguing that Fiorot's elusive, outside-fighting style will frustrate Rose Namajunas, who thrives in pocket boxing exchanges. He believes Fiorot will use sidekicks and movement to keep Rose at range, preventing her from letting her hands go. Levi dismisses the size narrative, stating that Fiorot is not a pressure grappler so the weight class difference is irrelevant. He expects a clear 30-27 decision, noting that Fiorot has a history of outpointing tough opponents like Mayra Bueno Silva.
Lucrative James is on Fiorot, having bet on her almost every fight. He thinks Fiorot is legit, top-five material, and that Rose is meeting her at the wrong time. He notes Rose's mental issues, long layoff, career-worst performance, and step up in weight. He believes Fiorot is bigger and stronger, and that Rose hasn't been finished except by Carla Esparza long ago. He likes Fiorot by points at +140, as he doesn't see a finish.
I'm leaning with Fiorot here. She has great takedown defense and a dynamic striking style with power and volume. Rose is a wild card mentally and may struggle with the weight cut to flyweight. Fiorot's footwork and ability to stay at distance should allow her to land significant strikes. However, I don't have a boatload of confidence because Rose has the experience advantage and could potentially get takedowns if she closes the distance. I think Fiorot wins by decision.
Paul also picks Fiorot, emphasizing her size and strength advantage. He doubts Rose's motivation and notes her inability to engage against Esparza. Paul thinks Rose's offensive wrestling could be a factor but that Fiorot's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He expects a striking affair where Fiorot's speed and kicking game prevail, likely by decision (29-28 or 30-27).
The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot by TKO, citing her physicality and dangerous stand-up, while Rose Namajunas appears mentally checked out. He notes Rose's lack of activity, her poor performance against Carla Esparza, and her loss in a grappling match. He believes Fiorot will overwhelm Rose with a flurry of punches in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 136 | 27% | 38 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 30 of 133 | 22% | 30 of 133 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 31 | 16% | 5 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 136 | 27% | 30 of 122 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 36 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 30 of 133 | 22% | 15 of 108 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 128 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 19 | 21% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 22 | 18% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 11 of 36 | 30% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 9 of 32 | 28% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 6 of 28 | 21% | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 8 of 29 | 27% | 3 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 39 | 33% | 7 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 5 of 31 | 16% | 2 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.
Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.
The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.
Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.
The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 86 of 168 | 51% | 130 of 219 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 7:00 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 83 of 173 | 47% | 162 of 272 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 22 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 36 of 56 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 22 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 21 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:32 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 32 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 31 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 44 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 86 of 168 | 51% | 57 of 131 | 12 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 60 of 136 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 26 |
| Zhang Weili | 83 of 173 | 47% | 36 of 112 | 14 of 16 | 33 of 45 | 64 of 138 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 20 of 36 | 55% | 11 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 22 of 38 | 57% | 6 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 14 | 19 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Zhang Weili | 16 of 39 | 41% | 6 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 14 of 38 | 36% | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 25 of 51 | 49% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 19 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 14 of 23 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Zhang Weili | 12 of 27 | 44% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 9 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 18 of 26 | 69% | 14 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
| Zhang Weili | 8 of 18 | 44% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Angelo picks Zhang Weili, believing she will make adjustments after the first fight. He thinks Weili will protect her chin, push the pace, and use her boxing to outwork Rose. He notes that Rose's win came from a single head kick and that there wasn't much to analyze from the short fight. He sees Weili's power and determination as key factors.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision. He notes Zhang's power, volume, and cardio advantage, while Rose may slow down as the fight goes on. Brady thinks the first few rounds will be competitive, but Zhang's pressure and durability will wear on Rose. He also mentions Zhang's move to Fight Ready and her takedown potential, though Rose is dangerous on the ground. He expects Zhang to win down the stretch, possibly with a late finish.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Rose's precision striking and ability to find openings. He notes Zhang's durability but believes Rose's technique and submission game give her the edge. He compares it to Rose's first win over Joanna and sees value in the champion as an underdog.
Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas to defend her belt, expressing that the line is disrespectful to Rose at plus 105. He believes Rose is the better striker with more power and setups, and that Zhang Weili may be in denial about the first fight. Levi expects adjustments from Zhang, such as calf kicks, but thinks Rose's toughness and experience in rematches (3-0) will carry her. He notes that Rose is undefeated at Madison Square Garden and that Zhang's cardio advantage may be overstated.
Jacob picks Rose Namajunas, saying he will never bet against her again. He believes Weili's new focus on wrestling with Henry Cejudo could backfire, as Rose has excellent jiu-jitsu. He has a moneyline bet and a submission prop on Rose. He thinks Rose has the 'it factor' and thrives in big moments.
The host leans Zhang by decision, expecting her to use takedowns to sway judges in close rounds. He thinks the fight goes 25 minutes and likes the over 4.5 rounds at -125. He notes Zhang's new camp but limited time to adjust.
Paul picks Rose as a live underdog, noting she knocked Zhang out in the first fight and is being undervalued. He questions Zhang's wrestling improvements with Cejudo and believes Rose's precision striking and submission threat are key. He sees the line as too easy to pass up.
The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her youth, reach advantage, and grappling edge. He believes Zhang's mindset will be affected by her first KO loss and the crowd booing her. The Guru predicts a third-round rear-naked choke submission, noting Namajunas' ability to bounce back and her training with Trevor Wittman.
Loopy by finish as I put my clown makeup on