Career Averages - Alexander Volkanovski
Career Averages - José Aldo
Alexander Volkanovski - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 98 of 160 | 61% | 112 of 178 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 70 of 158 | 44% | 74 of 162 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 21 of 24 | 87% | 29 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 98 of 160 | 61% | 72 of 118 | 3 of 6 | 23 of 36 | 88 of 149 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 |
| Diego Lopes | 70 of 158 | 44% | 33 of 98 | 17 of 33 | 20 of 27 | 66 of 152 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 12 of 28 | 42% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 19 of 30 | 63% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 16 of 34 | 47% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 21 of 35 | 60% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 17 of 38 | 44% | 8 of 24 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 25 of 44 | 56% | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 22 of 48 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 21 of 24 | 87% | 18 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Diego Lopes | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski to win the rematch, citing his insane cardio, high fight IQ, and ability to game plan. He believes Volkanovski will wrestle more this time to take away Diego's distance, where he landed his best shots. Angelo acknowledges Diego's dangerous grappling and striking, and notes that Diego was close to finishing Volkanovski in the first fight. He suggests a prop bet on Diego Lopes winning inside the distance, as you get a refund if he doesn't and get paid if he does.
Big Brady leans toward Diego Lopes for the upset, citing that Lopes needs to be more aggressive and make it a 'car crash' to touch Volkanovski's chin, which has been cracked. He notes Lopes dropped Volkanovski in the first fight and started turning it on in the later rounds. However, he acknowledges Volkanovski wins a decision 90% of the time if it goes the distance, so Lopes must finish. Brady predicts a second-round knockout for Lopes.
Cody believes Volkanovski will win a decision similar to the first fight, citing his superior striking volume and takedown defense. He notes that Volkanovski landed 158 significant strikes in the first fight and that Lopes' ground game was ineffective. He acknowledges Volkanovski's age and potential decline but sees no evidence of regression yet. He picks Volkanovski by decision.
Connor picks Diego Lopes because he believes that Volkanovski is older and more vulnerable, and that Lopes has a puncher's chance that becomes more likely the more times they fight. He notes that Lopes is insanely fast and durable, and that Volkanovski's defensive decisions have worsened. However, he acknowledges that Volkanovski is still the more technical fighter and that Lopes could easily lose.
Daniel Vreeland picks Volkanovski to outclass Lopes again, citing his superior fight IQ, feinting game, and all-around skills. He notes that Lopes needs a finish to win, as he has a negative record in decisions, but Volkanovski is tough to put away and has already proven he can handle Lopes' best shots. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' dangerous finishing ability but believes Volkanovski's adjustments and experience will prevail.
James picks Diego Lopes to win the rematch, citing Lopes' momentum from his KO of Jean Silva, improved camp, and admission of ego issues in the first fight. He believes Lopes will push a higher pace and force pocket exchanges where he can land a knockout. James notes Volkanovski's age and potential decline, and that the close odds (Volk -155) suggest the fight is a toss-up. He also mentions Lopes' durability and submission threat.
Volkanovski's fight IQ and tactical approach will allow him to execute a game plan similar to their first fight: jab, leg kick, takedowns to disrupt Lopes' rhythm. He out-struck Lopes 158 to 63 in their first bout, landing at 61% in rounds three and five. Lopes may be more aggressive this time, but Volkanovski's submission defense and ability to stick and move should neutralize that. The host notes that if Lopes wins, it likely comes by knockout, but he favors the better overall fighter. He suggests waiting for better odds on Volkanovski during fight week.
Paul argues that Volkanovski clearly won the first fight 4-1 and that the line is too close given that result. He acknowledges Lopes' improvements and Volkanovski's age but believes the champion's skills and experience will prevail. He sees a similar outcome, possibly a 48-47 decision.
The Guru picks Diego Lopes by TKO in round two, citing his performance in the first fight where he dropped Volkanovski. He believes Volkanovski's age, layoff, and lack of motivation will be factors, while Lopes has improved and has a lottery ticket mentality. He expects Lopes to finish him this time.
Zane picks Volkanovski, arguing that Lopez has atrocious defense and poor footwork, and that Volkanovski will walk him into jabs and overhand rights. He notes that Lopez might win with a puncher's chance due to his durability and speed, but believes Volkanovski's technical superiority will prevail. He also points out that Lopez is an opportunist who starts hot but fades if he doesn't get an early finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 158 of 259 | 61% | 165 of 266 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Diego Lopes | 1 | 63 of 194 | 32% | 71 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 31 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 27 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Diego Lopes | 1 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 39 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 43 of 61 | 70% | 43 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 14 of 59 | 23% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 158 of 259 | 61% | 136 of 225 | 8 of 14 | 14 of 20 | 142 of 237 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 11 |
| Diego Lopes | 63 of 194 | 32% | 49 of 171 | 7 of 13 | 7 of 10 | 59 of 185 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 27 of 44 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 11 |
| Diego Lopes | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 24 of 52 | 46% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 16 of 33 | 48% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 25 of 45 | 55% | 21 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 9 of 37 | 24% | 7 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 39 of 57 | 68% | 36 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 39 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 16 of 43 | 37% | 13 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 43 of 61 | 70% | 40 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 14 of 59 | 23% | 9 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-155), Lopes (+130)
Round 1
In the UFC 314 headliner in April 2025, Volkanovski (27-4, 14-3 UFC) took Lopes (27-7, 6-2 UFC) to task across 25 minutes, with the Brazilian claiming one round on two official scorecards when it all wrapped up. With promotional matchmakers seemingly out of ideas or options, the Lobo Gym MMA product only needed a single win to get another crack at gold, while it serves as an immediate rematch for the Aussie. No matter the thoughts on the pairing, it is here now, and fans should appreciate “The Great” for as long as we have him. Walking out to “Down Under” by Men at Work, he holds the arena in the palm of his hand. Referee Marc Goddard receives the final assignment today and brings the two 145ers to the center of the cage, issuing their instructions and setting them loose after their respectful fist bump. It’s all up to them now.
Volkanovski moves directly to the center of the cage, circling towards the power right hand of Lopes. Volkanovski lands first with a low kick, and Lopes answers back. Chants in favor of the Aussie boom through the building. Volkanovski stays light on his feet, never staying on one place, and he switches stances a few times and absorbs a kick to the liver. Lopes intercepts him with a low kick, and he takes one in response. Volkanovski connects with a hard low kick, and Lopes retaliates with a head kick that gets blocked. Volkanovski shoots, and Lopes tosses him aside and tags him with a right hand while Volkanovski resets. Lopes bounces on his heels and absorbs a low kick and one to the midsection, and neither man seems ready to fully commit after two minutes. Volkanovski loads up on a right hand, and he rushes at Lopes to toss out two more big right hands. The Aussie checks a kick, and he parries a jab.
Lopes constantly changes stances, firing off his high kick while in southpaw. Volkanovski kicks him on the inner calf, and he chips away on the other side before Lopes can get to him. Volkanovski gets in and out with his low kick, and Lopes tries and fails to counter him back. Volkanovski pecks out with a jab, and he shoots for a speedy double and presses Lopes to the wall. “The Great” clasps his hands and looks to elevate Lopes, and he releases his grip and starts slugging Lopes with his right hand. Lopes frames off with his knee, and he breaks off and gets sideswiped with a right hand. Volkanovski clips Lopes with a flush right hand, who shakes his head at him. Volkanovski connects with another right, and Lopes flashes a grin but cannot deny he got tagged. Lopes drills the champ with a stern body kick right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves to get started again, and this time, Lopes positions himself in the center of the cage right off the bat. Volkanovski measures with a jab out of range, and he leans back as a high kick soars past him. Volkanovski slips to the side when taking a kick, and he dings Lopes twice and has a kick bounce into the cup. Lopes does not cry foul, and they continue fighting. Volkanovski works both sides of the lead leg, and he jabs to keep Lopes busy. Lopes chambers and fires a leg kick to the back leg, and they whip additional leg kicks at one another. Lopes slowly pressures forward, scoring a low kick and crashing the pocket to sneak in a right hand.
Lopes charges in, and Volkanovski ducks away and gets off a left hand on the way. Lopes lands a hard leg kick and a right hand, and Volkanovski counters him as he takes a side step. Lopes flashes his own jab, forcing Volkanovski to rush him and start trading. Lopes hits him back, and he cuts Volkanovski’s right cheek. Volkanovski pays it no mind and rails Lopes with a ferocious right hand, and Lopes comfortably tanks a blow that would fell lesser men. Lopes draws Volkanovski into a brief slugfest, and he takes a few but manages to land at the end of his long right. Volkanovski bashes Lopes in the jaw with a one-two, and Lopes steels himself and races in for a takedown. Volkanovski jumps guard with a flying guillotine choke, and he falls to his back and laughs when Lopes and his slippery hair slide out of the submission. Volkanovski scrambles, and Lopes climbs on his back and wraps his arm around the chin. Lopes hangs on until the horn sounds, and the two high-five after 10 close minutes of combat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 3
Round 3 The athletes once more greet with a glove touch, and Lopes leads off with a chopping kick. As Volkanovski is moving and listening to his corner, Lopes wags his finger at them and laughs. Lopes strides forward behind an elbow, skimming it off the raised guard. Lopes jabs to the head and body, and he skirts away from a calf kick. Lopes goes to the body when Volkanovski aims high, and the Aussie checks a low kick that zips towards him. Volkanovski reestablishes his jab, peppering the challenger to open up a right hand. Lopes pops him with his own to make Volkanovski take a few steps back, and he absorbs a flush right hand up top. They clash together, and Lopes gets the better of the exchange with an elbow on the break.
Volkanovski sits down on two fierce right hands, stumbling Lopes and transitioning to a takedown. Lopes stops the first try, knees Volkanovski in the belly and stops a second subsequent effort. Volkanovski resets and kicks the lead leg to open up his right hand, and Lopes answers with a single kick to the ribcage. Lopes just misses a huge right hand, and he avoids a similar one as the champ smiles. Both of these two are having a blast in the cage together, and they are not afraid to show it. Volkanovski leads with his jab, constantly moving to not get pinned down by the larger man. Volkanovski races in with a right hand, and he stumbles possibly from taking a counter right but he might have thrown himself off-balance. The champ pops right back up, and he proceeds to slam his fists in the sides of Lopes’ melon. Lopes drives home a knee to the liver, and he takes a jab as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds again, and it has been remarkably close. Volkanovski comfortably jabs out and tosses his leg kick to disrupt Lopes’ forward movement, and he turns his lead leg to check an oncoming kick. Lopes scores an inside thigh kick, and he aims another to the same spot. The Brazilian fakes a takedown and eats a right hand, but not before landing an inside low kick. Volkanovski chops at the front leg and doubles up on a jab, and he uses that jab to come over the top with an oddly timed right hand. Volkanovski parries the jabs and steps in with a knee to the body, and he slides back just out of range of the counter. Volkanovski sinks in a crisp right on the nose, and Lopes is stuck jabbing him. Volkanovski clubs him with a pair of hooks on either side of the head, and Lopes grits his teeth and doubles up on an outside leg kick.
The challenger is met with jabs, and when he tries to answer, he turns to avoid the worst of a right hand. Volkanovski snaps the head back with a jab, one so effective that Lopes nods at him as if to celebrate the strike. Chants for the champ rain down once more, as fans had been silent and one could hear a pin drop in the arena. Volkanovski busts Lopes in the chops with a blistering right hand, taking advantage of Lopes coming at him with his right. Volkanovski lets fly a body kick, and he goes low and bangs it into the cup. Volkanovski is upset by the foul and goes to apologize immediately, but Goddard gets between them and has the champ go to a neutral corner while Lopes recovers. Lopes is good to go after 35 seconds, and Volkanovski is full of apologies. Lopes accepts them, and he marches the champion down and lobs a head kick at him. Volkanovski dodges it and kicks low, and he evades a step-in elbow. Volkanovski sees right hands coming and disengages before taking them on the chin, and his jab is a masterclass and his follow-up right is money. Lopes draws him into a big exchange, and Lopes lands as much as Volkanovski does. Lopes falls over when missing on a head kick, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 5
Five minutes remain in this match, one with scores that could range from 4-0 Volkanovski to 2-2. It could potentially be all up for grabs in this last round, and Volkanovski is quick to get right behind his jab again. The snappy jab has an extra impact as Lopes hair moves when he absorbs the blow, and he remains elusive and hard to pin down. Volkanovski shoots for a single, and Lopes answers with an arm-in guillotine choke. Volkanovski rolls through it and Lopes follows him upright by clinging to it, kneeing the champ in the head. Volkanovski drops his man with a right hand, and he chains a body lock and trip takedown into it the moment Lopes recovers. Lopes posts off his hands to get up, and Volkanovski holds on from behind and keeps to Lopes when Lopes spins. Lopes explodes and manages to take the champion to the floor, and during the scramble, he takes the back.
Volkanovski stands up, with a body triangle around his waist, and he promptly breaks the leg grip and calmly shucks Lopes off. Lopes transitions to a double, and Volkanovski hacks down with elbows before reversing the position and putting Lopes to the fence. Volkanovski trips Lopes up with his feet, and he swirls around to take Lopes’ back and drags the fight down again. Lopes hits a kimura to sweep him, and he chains it into an armbar. Volkanovski sits up and his arm is still trapped, so he keeps tightly pressed to the challenger rather than lean back to possibly straighten it. Volkanovski yanks his arm out of danger and sits on Lopes’ face, and he pumps his fist to the crowd with 30 seconds left while they go wild for him. Lopes tries for a Hail Mary leglock, and Volkanovski stands up and shrugs to Goddard when he does. Volkanovski lowers himself down, and he commences one final bombardment of elbows to punish Lopes. The audience is so loud, the fighters are lucky that Goddard knows when time is up because it is practically impossible to hear the final horn.
The fighters are happy that it’s over, after a combined 50 minutes of combat with one another. Barring something extreme, there does not need to be a third match between the two. As expected, Volkanovski has the belt wrapped around his waist, further defying the age curse that many imposed on him. The masses in the building practically blow the roof off when the victorious Aussie’s arm is raised. The defending champion is all smiles after facing a wrecking machine in Lopes, and he is proud to have his moment in Sydney in front of his home country faithful. “The Great” lauds his grit, determination and many other factors for his success to this date, and he is not ready to call it quite yet. There is no clear-cut contender at the moment, with the potential for Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev to establish that in London soon. He welcomes the challenge. When Volkanovski fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (49-46 Volkanovski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkanovski def. Diego Lopes via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 50-45)
Connor picks Volkanovski, echoing Zane's reasoning about Lopes' lack of process. He emphasizes that Lopes' success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents, and that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory. Connor notes that Lopes' style is similar to Paddy Pimblett's but with better athleticism, and that Volkanovski's wrestling and fight IQ should be enough to overcome Lopes' early aggression. He acknowledges the risk of Volkanovski's chin but believes Lopes is not the same level as Topuria or Makhachev.
Daniel Levi picked Diego Lopes going into the fight, believing Lopes would catch Volkanovski and close the show as he normally does. He expected Volkanovski to be diminished from back-to-back knockout losses. However, he notes that Lopes was gunshy and hesitant after hurting Volkanovski, failing to pull the trigger enough, which cost him the fight.
Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkanovski to win, citing his superior skill set, cardio, fight IQ, and ability to win the minutes. He believes Volkanovski will dominate in rounds four and five, as Lopes has shown a tendency to fade late. He acknowledges the danger of Lopes' early finishing ability but thinks Volkanovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also notes that Volkanovski has taken a year off to recover, which should benefit him. The biggest worry is Volkanovski's age and potential decline, but he still sides with the former champion.
Zane picks Volkanovski because he believes Diego Lopes lacks a coherent process and relies on reckless aggression and counter-punching without controlling the initiative. He notes that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory: pressuring, counter-fighting, or wrestling. Zane compares Lopes to Dricus du Plessis and Paddy Pimblett, suggesting his success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents. He acknowledges Volkanovski's recent knockout losses and potential chin issues but sees Lopes as a step down from the elite fighters who beat Volk.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 47 of 107 | 43% | 47 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 35 of 77 | 45% | 36 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 21 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 47 of 107 | 43% | 21 of 68 | 11 of 22 | 15 of 17 | 44 of 102 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 35 of 77 | 45% | 17 of 53 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 26 of 52 | 50% | 8 of 29 | 7 of 12 | 11 of 11 | 24 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 15 of 38 | 39% | 4 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 55 | 38% | 13 of 39 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 39 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-118), Topuria (-102)
Round 1
We have reached the marquee matchup of the evening, and it is one that fight fans have been waiting patiently to watch for several months. Unable to secure a second title, Volkanovski (26-3, 13-2 UFC) will have to make do with attempting the sixth defense of his featherweight throne. Much has been said about his age, having recently turned 35, and he steered into it on fight week by donning an “Old Man Volk” persona. Eight years the junior of the champ, full of vinegar and that other thing, fired up unbeaten Topuria (14-0, 6-0 UFC) wants that gold belt, and to claim it he will have to become the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds. No matter how this fight plays out, referee Jason Herzog will take care of the proceedings. When he brings the fighters together, they opt to touch gloves first. Topuria moves towards the center of the cage, and he blocks a quick head kick. As Topuria advances, Volkanovski snipes him with kicks high and low. Volkanovski paws out with a left and a body kick, and Topuria walks through them and retaliates with a sharp right hand over the top. Volkanovski times a kick to the body and continues throwing them to the lead leg and midsection, even flicking one up high as he keeps Topuria from reaching him. Volkanovski rips the body with another kick, and he pokes out a jab. Topuria winds up with a hard leg kick, spinning the champ all the way around, and Volkanovski recovers with a spinning back fist just in case Topuria was advancing. Topuria kicks the calf low with bad intentions, and he backs the champ off with an overhand right that glances off his guard. Topuria gets off another low kick, and he forces Volkanovski to change stances just a few in. Volkanovski dances out of the way of a short combo of fists, and he whips a kick up high to keep Topuria honest. Volkanovski delivers a calf kick back, and he follows suit with a body kick. Volkanovski paws out a left as Topuria charges, but Topuria manages to break through and sting Volkanovski with a right hand. Volkanovski bounces off the fence and shakes it off, where he peppers kicks to stave off the offense from the challenger. Volkanovski connects with a body kick and slips a huge punch, and he drives two heavy low kicks home to stumble Topuria. Volkanovski tags Topuria on the way in with a short left hand, and Topuria motions to him that his punches do not faze him. Volkanovski signals that he did land cleanly, and he shoots for a takedown only to break and knee the Georgian three times in rapid succession. The close round ends with a trickle of blood leaking from the bridge of Topuria’s nose.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The featherweights touch ‘em up in the middle of the cage, and Volkanovski is fleet of foot, darting in and out with jabs and kicks to any target he can find. Topuria crashes the pocket with two hooks, and Volkanovski rolls with them and shifts to the side. Topuria chases with an overhand right, and Volkanovski measures with jabs. Topuria lands cleanly with a right and then a left, and Volkanovski nods at him and clinches up only to knee the challenger on the break. Volkanovski connects with a right hand and a low kick as Topuria resets, and Volkanovski reaches him on the way back with a body kick. Topuria lunges to land a single punch, and the jabs from Volkanovski have opened the slight cut on Topuria’s nose again. Topuria knocks Volkanovski back with a right hand, and he digs a kick to the calf as Volkanovski changes stances. They snap out jabs at the same time, with the champion reaching more cleanly and frequently when they trade them. Volkanovski peppers the lead leg with kicks, and he drives a right hand into Topuria’s forehead to give him a moment of pause. Topuria lands a low kick, and Volkanovski gives him back one to the calf and one to the body. Volkanovski springs forward with jabs that have marked the face up of the challenger, and he does not slow in his approach of kicking to any target he can find. Frustrated with taking potshots from afar, “El Matador” charges like a bull. Volkanovski slips the oncoming fire, rebounding off the cage wall, but Topuria does not slow. Topuria unleashes a lightning bolt of a right hand that completely short circuits the champion. All the way out, Volkanovski collapses with his back to the fence, and Topuria dings him on the way down with a speedy left to follow. Herzog sprints between them to save Volkanovski from any further punishment, as the champion is no longer conscious—and no longer the champion. Topuria hammers any final nail with a few right hands until Herzog reaches him to pull him off of the downed Aussie. Incredible! Spain and Georgia now have a UFC champion, and his name is Ilia Topuria. The new champ is now an undefeated 15-0 with 13 finishes, with none bigger than this stunning moment. Topuria springs the only betting upset of the evening, starching one of the greatest to ever do it with one monumental punch. Welcome to the Topuria era.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Alexander Volkanovski R2 3:32 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Alexander Volkanovski, citing his dominance at featherweight and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Topuria's power and wrestling but notes Topuria hasn't faced anyone as skilled as Volkanovski. He is concerned about Volkanovski's recent knockout loss but believes he has defied age-related stats before. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He argues that Topuria hasn't proven himself against top competition, with his best wins being Bryce Mitchell and an aging Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski is on another level, having beaten Max Holloway three times and Jose Aldo. He acknowledges the narratives about Volkanovski's age and drinking but thinks the line is too close, calling a Topuria win a major upset.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Volkanovski's status as the featherweight GOAT and his near-win over Islam Makhachev. He questions Topuria's competition level (Jay Herbert, Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett) compared to Volkanovski's resume. He notes Topuria's potential cardio issues in the fifth round, as he took off the fifth against Emmett. He favors the champ's pressure and volume at even money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing a changing of the guard. He emphasizes Topuria's youth, less damage taken, and well-rounded skills including submission grappling and striking. He notes Volkanovski's recent knockout loss, weight cut issues, and age as concerns, but says his pick was made before those factors. He believes Topuria can match Volkanovski's output and has the heart to survive adversity, as shown in his comeback from head kick knockdowns.
Volkanovski is the most complete featherweight possibly ever. He will execute a master game plan, stifle Topuria's power punching, and grind on the mat. Topuria is a high-level prospect but this is a huge step up. Expects Volkanovski to hand out a veteran lesson and win by decision.
Paul believes the line is skewed by Volkanovski's short-notice loss to Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski can secure takedowns and hang out in guard, avoiding Topuria's power. He cites Volkanovski's volume, pace, and experience against top competition like Brian Ortega. He feels the line should be closer to -175, so even money is a trap in his favor.
The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria, citing his power, grappling, and momentum. He notes Volkanovski's recent KO loss to Makhachev, his drinking, and the weight cut. He believes Topuria's boxing and power will be key, and that Volkanovski's chin may be suspect. He predicts a KO in round two, with Volkanovski complaining about an early stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.
Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.
James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.
Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 66 of 97 | 68% | 149 of 198 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 57 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 49 of 58 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 55 of 75 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 24 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 45 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 66 of 97 | 68% | 48 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 23 | 25 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 46 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 40 of 80 | 50% | 13 of 49 | 11 of 14 | 16 of 17 | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 15 | 73% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 18 of 25 | 72% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 14 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 12 of 19 | 63% | 4 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 57 | 64% | 24 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 14 | 19 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 21 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 23 of 52 | 44% | 8 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Volkanovski, calling the -400 odds appropriate. He highlights Volkanovski's speed, kick usage, takedowns, and strength, and notes his performance against Islam Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski will control the pace, mix in takedowns, and keep Rodríguez on the back foot, preventing his wild striking. He acknowledges Rodríguez's danger but believes Volkanovski is on another level.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by late stoppage (fourth round). He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker with more volume and better defense, and he has a huge advantage in wrestling and ground and pound. He points out that Rodríguez has poor takedown defense and no answers off his back, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens, Max Holloway, and Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski will take Rodríguez down, beat him up, and get a doctor stoppage or TKO in the later rounds.
Cody picks Volkanovski to retain, citing his durability, cardio, and submission defense. He notes Yair's danger with unorthodox strikes but believes Volk's constant pressure and takedowns will be decisive. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair's style. He leans toward Volk by decision but wouldn't be surprised by a stoppage.
Connor picks Volkanovski, emphasizing his championship quality and preparation. He acknowledges Yair's danger, especially his kicking game and durability, but believes Volkanovski's pressure and wrestling will be decisive. Connor notes that Volkanovski's ability to take Yair down and control him on the ground is the path to victory.
Daniel Levi picks Volkanovski, citing his elite fainting game, ability to out-jab taller opponents, and superior boxing in close range. He notes Volkanovski's takedown of Islam Makhachev as evidence of his wrestling prowess, which he believes will be a key advantage against Yair's suspect takedown defense. Levi acknowledges Yair's unique kicking arsenal and the head-kick KO history of Volkanovski, but expects Volkanovski's pressure and cardio to take over as the fight progresses. He also mentions that Yair's energy-intensive style may lead to a slowdown in later rounds.
James picks Volkanovski to win by ground-and-pound, likely in rounds 3 or 4. He believes Volkanovski's superior fight IQ and grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Rodríguez has clear deficiencies on the ground and Volkanovski has heavy ground-and-pound. He also mentions the weight cut factor for Volkanovski moving back down, but still favors him. He does not advocate betting the moneyline at -400, but likes the inside distance prop.
Volkanovski is the more polished and disciplined fighter with excellent striking defense, movement, and wrestling. Rodriguez has flashy striking and an active guard, but has been broken before. Volkanovski will close distance, land takedowns, and control the fight, likely winning by decision. He is a safe parlay piece.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating it's tough to go against Volk at 145. He highlights Volk's ability to win on volume or by mixing in wrestling, and his proven submission defense. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair. He says he'll likely include Volk in parlays but won't place a serious wager.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Rodríguez's dangerous striking but doubts his finishing ability, calling his ground and pound pathetic. He believes Volkanovski's leg kicks and pressure will disrupt Rodríguez's flow, and that Volkanovski's top game in later rounds will be decisive. He notes that Holloway already handled Rodríguez on the ground.
Zane picks Volkanovski, citing his pressure wrestling and ability to exploit Yair's defensive flaws. He notes that Volkanovski's wrestling will be key to neutralizing Yair's kicking game and that Yair's stamina flags under grappling pressure. Zane expects Volkanovski to take Yair down and grind him out, possibly with a late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 57 of 95 | 60% | 95 of 135 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 7:37 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 70 of 143 | 48% | 164 of 255 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 30 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 19 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 49 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 57 of 95 | 60% | 36 of 72 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 70 of 143 | 48% | 37 of 96 | 21 of 33 | 12 of 14 | 58 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 10 of 16 | 62% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 23 | 47% | 4 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 19 of 32 | 59% | 12 of 24 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 19 of 34 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 16 of 22 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 14 of 37 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 6 of 13 | 46% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 36 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.
Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.
Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.
Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.
Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.
Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.
Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 199 of 372 | 53% | 204 of 377 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 127 of 301 | 42% | 161 of 335 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 38 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 37 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 44 of 70 | 62% | 48 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 42 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 50 of 80 | 62% | 50 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 199 of 372 | 53% | 152 of 316 | 19 of 24 | 28 of 32 | 175 of 340 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 127 of 301 | 42% | 64 of 213 | 42 of 59 | 21 of 29 | 109 of 283 | 18 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 28 of 70 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 26 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 24 of 56 | 42% | 11 of 31 | 6 of 14 | 7 of 11 | 22 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 78 | 47% | 29 of 69 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 27 of 65 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 40 of 74 | 54% | 31 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 65 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 26 of 63 | 41% | 16 of 51 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 44 of 70 | 62% | 37 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 58 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 31 of 63 | 49% | 13 of 41 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 50 of 80 | 62% | 37 of 66 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 45 of 74 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 19 of 54 | 35% | 9 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his previous two wins over Holloway and his ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Holloway took significant damage in his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and may be declining. He expects a similar outcome with Volkanovski winning a decision.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging Holloway's volume and the close second fight. He likes Volkanovski's movement, kicks, and ability to mix in takedowns. He expects a close decision win for Volkanovski.
Cody thinks Volkanovski has Max's number, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and land more impactful strikes. He notes Max's volume is high but he leaves himself open to counters. He expects Volkanovski to win a decision, possibly by mixing in wrestling.
Daniel Levi leans toward Alexander Volkanovski, citing his superior fainting game, leg kicks, and ability to make in-fight adjustments. He notes that Volkanovski's heart and doggedness were key in the second fight, where he came back from down two rounds. Levi acknowledges that Holloway has value at +170 given the close nature of their previous fights (five of six judges scored them 3-2), but he believes Volkanovski is operating on a different level and could potentially dominate. He is not confident enough to bet at -200.
Volkanovski is a master at implementing game plans and adjusts well as fights go on. He won the later rounds in both previous fights. Holloway's narrative of getting stronger late doesn't hold against Volkanovski. The host prefers Volkanovski by decision at +105 rather than the moneyline.
Paul agrees Volkanovski is the rightful favorite, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and steal rounds. He prefers to bet live to get a better price, but picks Volkanovski to win.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision, citing his improved leg kick setups, grappling, and recent activity with no damage taken. He argues Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and that Volkanovski's shorter stature with longer reach is a stylistic nightmare. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard and notes that betting on Holloway requires knockdowns, which is unreliable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 138 of 213 | 64% | 152 of 228 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 48 of 125 | 38% | 51 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 54 | 68% | 40 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 35 of 54 | 64% | 43 of 63 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 57 of 93 | 61% | 60 of 96 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 138 of 213 | 64% | 102 of 171 | 10 of 13 | 26 of 29 | 116 of 185 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 16 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 48 of 125 | 38% | 31 of 103 | 9 of 11 | 8 of 11 | 44 of 121 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 54 | 68% | 25 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 15 of 40 | 37% | 9 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 35 of 54 | 64% | 27 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 43 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 10 of 31 | 32% | 4 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 57 of 93 | 61% | 44 of 78 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 44 of 76 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 14 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 21 of 50 | 42% | 16 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo confidently picks Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision. He cites Volkanovski's work ethic, pace, striking volume, and takedowns as too much for the Korean Zombie. He notes Zombie's durability and power but believes Volkanovski cruises. He calls it an easy parlay piece.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by dominant decision, likely 50-45. He notes Volkanovski's volume striking, takedown defense, and chin are elite. The Korean Zombie looked washed against Ortega and his only path is a knockout, but Volkanovski has never been knocked out. Brady sees no path to victory for Zombie and expects Volkanovski to outwork him everywhere.
Cody picks Volkanovski to win, noting his complete MMA game, striking, wrestling, and ability to escape dangerous submissions. He is interested in the under 4.5 rounds because Volkanovski said he'd finish within three rounds and the Korean Zombie has been compromised before. Cody acknowledges the steep -760 price but still sees Volkanovski as a solid parlay piece.
Levi praises Volkanovski's elite feinting game, calf kicks, and ability to mix takedowns. He respects the Korean Zombie's toughness and exciting style, but believes Volk is the far superior fighter. He thinks Volk will use feints to set up takedowns and land big shots, possibly finishing the fight. He acknowledges the Korean Zombie has the best chance among underdogs but still picks Volk.
I think Volkanovski is the more complete fighter and will win, but he is hittable and Korean Zombie has power. I see Volkanovski dragging the fight to the ground to be safe and winning a decision. I would not parlay him at -800; the value is on Jung. I'll play Volkanovski by decision at -150.
Paul is confident in Volkanovski's moneyline, calling him championship material with no big red flags. He highlights Volkanovski's cardio, chin, wrestling, striking, and high ring IQ, noting he can change game plans like in the Holloway rematch. Paul also likes the under 4.5 rounds and fight doesn't go the distance, believing the Korean Zombie can't sustain the beating for 25 minutes. He picks Volkanovski by TKO inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski, predicting a fourth-round ground-and-pound TKO. He expects Volkanovski to get dropped in the first but recover, then chew up the Korean Zombie's legs with calf kicks and body shots. He notes the Korean Zombie's tendency to lean forward and struggle with lateral movement, and cites Volkanovski's superior cardio and recovery.
José Aldo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 1 | 68 of 167 | 40% | 71 of 170 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 99 of 199 | 49% | 109 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 25 of 72 | 34% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 52 of 87 | 59% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 68 of 167 | 40% | 48 of 135 | 13 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 67 of 166 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 99 of 199 | 49% | 79 of 167 | 14 of 22 | 6 of 10 | 66 of 151 | 8 of 11 | 25 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 23 of 59 | 38% | 12 of 42 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 21 of 46 | 45% | 15 of 39 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 25 of 72 | 34% | 17 of 62 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 26 of 66 | 39% | 19 of 50 | 3 of 8 | 4 of 8 | 25 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 20 of 36 | 55% | 19 of 31 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 52 of 87 | 59% | 45 of 78 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 44 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 37 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldo (-218), Zahabi (+180)
Round 1
A day and a half ago, the “featured fight of the night” slot was booked as a bantamweight affair. Elder statesman and beloved champ Aldo (32-9, 14-8 UFC) could not get close to 136 pounds, so he and Zahabi (12-2, 6-2 UFC) agreed to bump it up to featherweight to keep it together due to strange Canadian weight regulations. In what could be a passing of the torch match—this could be said about the last five fights or so for the ex-WEC champ—referee Dan Miragliotta will be installed as the cage commander. The two relieved fighters who did not have to cut nearly as much weight as they expected bump fists to get the fight started. Aldo marches forward, guard high, and Zahabi circles all the way around him. Aldo keeps following his foe, neither man throwing a strike of merit for the first 50 seconds. Aldo finally lands a jab, but it is just one jab. Zahabi jabs him back, and Aldo responds with a speedy head kick that bounces into his foe’s armpit. Zahabi jumps in and out to strike, and Aldo lets go with a body kick and two hooks. Aldo cracks the Canadian with a right hand, sending Zahabi back in a hurry. He lands another right hand, and lifts up a knee to counter something that does not get to him. Zahabi gets off two punches, and Aldo does not even register them and loads up a right hand that bangs into the Canadian’s head. Zahabi reaches his foe with a body kick, and Aldo continues marching forward without fear. Aldo lifts his knee up to block a high kick, and he jabs with the ball of his foot extended. Aldo rips the body with two punches, and Zahabi’s guard lower as he frowns. Aldo doubles up on a jab to strike with a right hand, and he gets countered and sways to avoid the worst of them. Aldo counters Zahabi coming in with a hook, and he jabs the body when he notices Zahabi is not retaliating. Aldo scores a mighty low kick, and Zahabi walks towards him to score a pair of punches. Zahabi flashes a grin, and he splits the guard with a few jabs and a couple right hands. Aldo leans back and dodges several punches, and he engages with power offense of his own. Aldo uses a power jab to set up further punches, and he no-sells a left hook and fires one back. Aldo goes to the body, and Zahabi counters with a front kick and a punch. Aldo cracks him with a left hand, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 2
Zahabi starts off the round in a flurry, crashing the pocket and kneeing the former champ flush in the chest. Aldo forces him to settle down with a front kick to the midsection. Aldo flicks out a quick jab, and he sneaks in a low kick before Zahabi can get to him. Aldo checks a kick and swings for the fences, but the Canadian is able to escape them. Aldo checks a leg kick and snaps out his jab, intercepting his advancing opponent every time. Zahabi walks through a few to try to strike, and Aldo goes to the body and head. When Zahabi strikes back, Aldo is nowhere to be found. Aldo pounds the body with a right hand, and he takes a left hook on the forehead so he can rifle off a big hook of his own. Aldo slips a punch and has one scrape off his forehead, and they jab one another up. The former beltholder plays the matador, absorbing a single left hand and landing his own. Zahabi’s foot rises up in a combination, and his foot strikes the groin. He immediately apologizes, and Aldo knows it was totally by accident. They restart in a few seconds, with Zahabi cut on the side of his right eye. Aldo lets him come at him so he can counter, and he ducks a leaping left hand to sneak away. Zahabi kicks him square in the groin, and this time, Aldo is a little more irritated and takes some time, while saying “that’s two” to Miragliotta. Time is called, and Aldo is perturbed but they tap gloves to get going after 15 seconds and push ahead. Zahabi aims a kick much lower to avoid the groin, and he has another get checked. Aldo whips a body shot at him and looks to dodge a jab. Zahabi clips the former beltholder with a left hand, and Aldo pushes off with a front kick and a few jabs. Zahabi dings him with another left, and Aldo shakes his head. Aldo leaps in the air, landing a flying knee to the body at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the last round begins. Zahabi reintroduces himself with a one-two, beating Aldo to the punch with a few strikes until Aldo revs up his own engine and stinging the Canadian. Aldo lets Zahabi fly past him, but when Zahabi resets, Zahabi lands three punches down the middle. Aldo shakes his head and drives a knee into his chest. Two body shots from the Brazilian land cleanly, and he ducks down and takes a left hand over the top along with a knee to the body. Aldo surges into action, hurting Zahabi with a knee, a right hand and a head kick that send him flying. Aldo punches his foe and drills Zahabi with a legal soccer kick, and Zahabi is all over the place and barely with it. Aldo chases after him and blasts him with another soccer kick, and Zahabi flops to his back and survives it. Miraculously, Zahabi is still in the fight, and he manages to stand back in front of Aldo, who is looking hard at the clock. The Brazilian is totally spent trying to force the finish, and suddenly momentum has shifted again. Zahabi pours it on, and he marches Aldo down and starts hurting him. A gassed Aldo shoots for a takedown, and Zahabi bowls him over and starts landing punches. Zahabi sits in Aldo’s guard, unleashing heavy punches and elbows. Zahabi continues to assault the former champ with unblocked elbows, and Aldo hangs on tight with nothing left to offer. Aldo keeps his hands up and breathes as hard as one can, and he clings to Zahabi while Zahabi offers more elbows. Zahabi complains that Aldo is holding his glove, and a moment of confusion leads to Zahabi hammering Aldo with more elbows. One slashing elbow shreds open a cut on the middle of Aldo’s forehead, and blood streams down his face immediately. Zahabi keeps pouring it on, looking to Miragliotta for a stoppage that is not yet to come. Every time Zahabi nails Aldo, he looks to Miragliotta. Aldo holds on to save himself and run out the clock, and Zahabi helps him back to his feet when the shocking match concludes. Both teams lift their fighters on their shoulders and parade them around the cage, embracing while held on the shoulders. What a fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.
Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.
Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.
The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.
Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 65 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 49 of 142 | 34% | 90 of 196 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 51 of 117 | 43% | 41 of 105 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 111 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 49 of 142 | 34% | 26 of 111 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 44 of 136 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 20 of 53 | 37% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 19 of 53 | 35% | 15 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 17 of 48 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.
Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.
Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.
Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.
The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.
Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.
Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 77 of 139 | 55% | 101 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 52 of 118 | 44% | 80 of 151 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 50 | 60% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 43 | 69% | 54 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 44 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 77 of 139 | 55% | 41 of 96 | 26 of 33 | 10 of 10 | 70 of 132 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 52 of 118 | 44% | 36 of 96 | 9 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 50 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 17 of 46 | 36% | 5 of 30 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 15 of 34 | 44% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 30 of 50 | 60% | 15 of 34 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 14 of 38 | 36% | 12 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 30 of 43 | 69% | 21 of 32 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 23 of 46 | 50% | 16 of 38 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.
Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.
Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.
Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.
Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.
Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.
Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 59 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 57 of 147 | 38% | 135 of 230 | 0 of 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 21 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 62 of 84 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 52 of 92 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 38 of 67 | 56% | 11 of 35 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 35 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 57 of 147 | 38% | 20 of 102 | 10 of 14 | 27 of 31 | 43 of 132 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 15 of 25 | 60% | 1 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 16 of 49 | 32% | 2 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 22 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 12 of 20 | 60% | 5 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 30 of 69 | 43% | 13 of 49 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 13 | 19 of 58 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.
Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.
Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.
Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.
Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.
The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 149 of 305 | 48% | 193 of 350 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Rob Font | 2 | 86 of 161 | 53% | 96 of 172 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 37 of 91 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Rob Font | 1 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 48 of 89 | 53% | 48 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 37 of 64 | 57% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:10 | |
| 4 | José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 27 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 1 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 5 | José Aldo | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 149 of 305 | 48% | 94 of 238 | 38 of 48 | 17 of 19 | 135 of 289 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Rob Font | 86 of 161 | 53% | 57 of 129 | 19 of 20 | 10 of 12 | 75 of 146 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 36 of 90 | 40% | 21 of 72 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 36 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 26 of 41 | 63% | 19 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 48 of 89 | 53% | 23 of 60 | 13 of 17 | 12 of 12 | 48 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 23 of 51 | 45% | 15 of 41 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 37 of 64 | 57% | 29 of 55 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 12 of 29 | 41% | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | José Aldo | 10 of 20 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Rob Font | 10 of 12 | 83% | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 5 | José Aldo | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.
Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.
Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.
Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.
Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.
I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.
Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 114 of 223 | 51% | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 75 of 179 | 41% | 75 of 179 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 28 of 76 | 36% | 28 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 42 of 95 | 44% | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 47 of 68 | 69% | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 114 of 223 | 51% | 74 of 168 | 32 of 47 | 8 of 8 | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 75 of 179 | 41% | 35 of 131 | 3 of 6 | 37 of 42 | 71 of 175 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 25 of 60 | 41% | 13 of 40 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 28 of 76 | 36% | 11 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 18 | 27 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 42 of 95 | 44% | 32 of 78 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 33 of 71 | 46% | 16 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 18 | 32 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 47 of 68 | 69% | 29 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 14 of 32 | 43% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.
Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.
Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.
Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.
Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 44 of 70 | 62% | 60 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:57 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 46 of 82 | 56% | 92 of 133 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 29 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 25 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 39 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 44 of 70 | 62% | 17 of 38 | 21 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 36 of 62 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 46 of 82 | 56% | 8 of 33 | 11 of 15 | 27 of 34 | 34 of 69 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 19 of 29 | 65% | 7 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 16 of 29 | 55% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 3 | 14 of 16 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 24 of 39 | 61% | 9 of 22 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 32 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 28 of 50 | 56% | 5 of 21 | 11 of 12 | 12 of 17 | 18 of 40 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
This embarrassment of riches continues tonight, as all-time great Aldo (28-7, 10-6 UFC) faces rising star “Chito” Vera (29-8, 1 NC; 17-8, 1 NC UFC) at bantamweight. Aldo will attempt to earn his first win at 135 pounds in his third try, and he will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Miragliotta. The two strikers touch gloves, and it’s time to throw down. Vera starts off with a front kick, and Aldo slaps it out of the way but gets kicked in the leg. The former champ jabs the body, and Vera steps back to kick Aldo’s leg a few times. Aldo slings an overhand right, and he gets off a heavy leg kick like the days of old. Aldo checks a kick, and he absorbs a strike that makes him slip. Vera takes advantage of this to charge in and take the fight down, but Aldo keeps his balance and stands tall against the fence. “Chito” knees Aldo’s thigh a few times as he clings to Aldo, and the two trade short clinch strikes while Vera embraces the grind. Miragliotta calls on Vera to work, so Aldo reverses the position and pushes off, but gets slapped in the face by Vera. Vera lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Aldo stalks him down with a few jabs. Aldo digs to the body with a left hand at the end of a short combination, and Vera backpedals against the fence as he eats another liver shot. “Chito” hacks at Aldo’s leg with another kick, but Aldo completely ignores it and blocks a head kick. Aldo slams his right hand on Vera’s stomach, and a thudding leg kick follows suit. Aldo drills Vera with another leg kick, and Vera is already switching stances to avoid these strikes. Aldo fakes a leg kick to draw out a reaction, and he comes up short with a punch to the body. Vera crashes in to clinch, and Aldo spins him out and takes the center of the cage again. Aldo tattoos Vera’s midsection with another punch, and Vera responds with a head kick. Aldo replies in kind, and comes after it with a pounding leg kick that gives WEC fans something to cheer about. The round ends as Vera goes for a spinning kick to the head.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 2
A confident Vera comes out of his corner striking, but Vera is there to greet him with a few leg kicks. The former champ lets loose a right hand, and he picks away at his opponent with kicks. Aldo pierces the midsection with a right hand, and a kick makes Vera retreat and bounce off the fence. Aldo jabs and absorbs a body kick, but he wades through it to swing a hook from each hand. When Vera crashes in, Aldo is easily out of the way and shoves his man back. Vera scores a stern leg kick, and Aldo sits down on a body shot and a looping uppercut. When Vera commits to another low kick, Aldo is there to meet him with a few crushing body shots. Vera wears them well, but Aldo is back for more and even absorbs the end of a spinning back fist without issue. Vera pushes into a clinch to pursue a trip takedown, but the Brazilian keeps his footing as he knees the body repeatedly. Vera very nearly lands a takedown, but Aldo not only stays standing, but he knees Vera to the liver and the head on the way up. Aldo’s right to the body gets countered by a quick hook from Vera, and Vera presses forward to tie up Aldo again. Aldo is content to pepper away at the body with short shots, and Vera pays him back with a stern knee while keeping the ex-champ pinned to the fence. Vera lands a few body shots and an elbow over the top to break up the clinch and conclude the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Round 3
The touch of gloves opens the round, but Vera is ready to throw leather. Aldo ducks a strike, and when “Chito” tries to clinch up, Aldo circles around and takes his back. Vera defends himself from a takedown with a no-look elbow, but Aldo drags him down and then hops on like a Brazilian backpack. Vera leans down while trying to shake off Aldo, but the Ecuadorian falls to his knees. Aldo sinks in the body lock as he fishes for a choke, and Vera fights the grip and keeps his neck clear. The former champ confers with his corner as he holds on to Vera’s back, switching arms for the choke but not finding anything. “Chito” grabs the gloves to stop Aldo from getting a choke locked up, until Miragliotta notices and tells Vera to knock it off. Aldo softens him up with a few punches, but Vera powers up to his knees. Aldo is still firmly in back control with a body triangle locked tightly, and Vera bounces Aldo into the cage to try to scrape him off. Vera walks across the cage to take Aldo away from his corner and into Vera’s, and he slams down to get the ex-champ off but Aldo does not loosen up. Aldo sticks to Vera’s back as Vera stands back up again, and he cannot break the grip no matter how hard he tries. Vera signals a thumbs-down to show his displeasure with the position, but the round ends with Aldo on him like a cheap suit. Barring some strange judging antics, Jose Aldo should finally have earned his first win in the bantamweight division, while snapping a lengthy win streak at 135 pounds for Vera.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks José Aldo as a guaranteed win, arguing that Marlon Vera's win over Sean O'Malley was a fluke due to O'Malley's ankle injury. He believes Aldo, one of the best strikers of all time, will easily outclass Vera.
Big Brady picks José Aldo over Marlon Vera, arguing that Aldo's level of competition is far superior and that Vera is overhyped. He notes Aldo's 90% takedown defense and believes Vera cannot take him down, forcing a striking match where Aldo has the edge. Brady thinks the fight goes to decision and considers the decision prop a good look, as Vera has never been finished.
The host is extremely confident in Aldo, calling him his strongest play on the card. He believes Aldo's leg kicks, boxing, and body work will overwhelm Vera, who is a slow starter and has never faced anyone of Aldo's level. He notes the line is too close due to recency bias and expects Aldo to win inside the distance.
The Guru picks José Aldo, emphasizing that this is a three-round fight which favors Aldo's cardio. He notes Aldo's close fight with Yan and his wins over Stephens and Moicano. He believes Aldo's leg kicks and experience will be key, and that Vera's win over O'Malley was due to a fluke leg injury. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision for Aldo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 1 | 194 of 309 | 62% | 258 of 376 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 83 of 157 | 52% | 83 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 0 | 33 of 55 | 60% | 34 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 24 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 0 | 39 of 72 | 54% | 39 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 56 of 86 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 1 | 62 of 68 | 91% | 113 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 194 of 309 | 62% | 150 of 256 | 35 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 99 of 201 | 9 of 11 | 86 of 97 |
| José Aldo | 83 of 157 | 52% | 38 of 97 | 28 of 39 | 17 of 21 | 81 of 154 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 33 of 55 | 60% | 21 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 19 |
| José Aldo | 14 of 39 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 1 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 16 of 42 | 38% | 11 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 24 of 41 | 58% | 7 of 22 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 24 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 39 of 72 | 54% | 27 of 56 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 68 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 29 of 49 | 59% | 13 of 27 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 27 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 44 of 72 | 61% | 32 of 58 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 13 |
| José Aldo | 15 of 27 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 62 of 68 | 91% | 59 of 65 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 59 of 65 |
| José Aldo | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.
Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.
Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.
The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.
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