vs
-135 +130
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 Next Fight
Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 1"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Kevin Holland
4.26 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Michael Chiesa
2.02 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
1.73 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
3.11 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Kevin Holland
Moneyline
DraftKings -135
KO/TKO
FanDuel +195
Submission
BetRivers +500
Decision
FanDuel +650
Michael Chiesa
Moneyline
Caesars +130
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1500
Submission
BetRivers +400
Decision
FanDuel +350
Kevin Holland - Fight History
SCHED vs Jacobe Smith
UFC Fight Night 281 · Jul 18, 2026
WIN vs Randy Brown
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 56 of 91 61% 137 of 176 0 of 3 0% 2 0 4:05
Randy Brown 0 46 of 95 48% 67 of 121 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 34 58% 48 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Randy Brown 0 18 of 39 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kevin Holland 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 0 of 2 0% 2 0 1:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 19 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Kevin Holland 0 17 of 26 65% 64 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 56 of 91 61% 24 of 55 10 of 11 22 of 25 39 of 68 11 of 15 6 of 8
Randy Brown 46 of 95 48% 25 of 65 14 of 17 7 of 13 31 of 75 12 of 17 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 20 of 34 58% 9 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 13 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Randy Brown 18 of 39 46% 8 of 26 5 of 5 5 of 8 14 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 31 61% 6 of 18 4 of 4 9 of 9 16 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 3 10 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 17 of 26 65% 9 of 17 5 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 15 8 of 11 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 30 46% 9 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 19 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to actually take …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of being a …"
LOSS vs Mike Malott
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 52 of 137 37% 76 of 162 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 49 of 95 51% 50 of 99 1 of 4 25% 1 1 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 9 of 31 29% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 12 of 29 41% 13 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:30
2 Kevin Holland 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 36 55% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 52 of 137 37% 23 of 96 9 of 13 20 of 28 49 of 127 3 of 9 0 of 1
Mike Malott 49 of 95 51% 35 of 73 10 of 15 4 of 7 44 of 88 1 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 9 of 31 29% 3 of 22 3 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 26 1 of 4 0 of 1
Mike Malott 12 of 29 41% 8 of 20 1 of 3 3 of 6 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Kevin Holland 23 of 70 32% 12 of 55 3 of 4 8 of 11 22 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Malott 26 of 42 61% 17 of 32 8 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 20 of 36 55% 8 of 19 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Malott 11 of 24 45% 10 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 18 0 of 2 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-115); Holland (+100)

Round 1
The co-main event comes in the form of what should be an all-action welterweight affair that could have a little something for everybody. The fan-favorite Holland (28-14, 1 NC; 15-11, 1 NC UFC) will have to be the villain tonight as he goes into hostile territory to take on the last Canadian-born fighter on the night in Malott (12-2-1, 5-1 UFC). The two will hunt for bonus cash—and there is steep competition tonight—while regionally unpopular referee Dan Miragliotta watches on. Holland tries fairly hard to get a glove touch, but the Canadian wants nothing to do with it.
Holland puts his hand down and his foot up, to start kicking Malott in the lead leg. Malott is struggling to get in on the longer Holland, so Holland can pepper his front leg on either side without worrying about something coming back. When Malott responds with his own leg kick, Holland hops and swats out a left hand. The two appear to clash heads when coming at one another, and Malott unloads with a short combination before Holland can reach him. Malott fires off a body kick, and Holland knocks him off his feet with a fierce right hand. Holland considers slamming down high-amplitude hammerfists, and he leaps on top and delivers some damage. Holland stands back up and starts punching the Canadian in the thigh. Malott hits a sneaky sweep to put Holland on his seat.
Holland fights his way back up, and when Malott tries for a mat return, Holland bends like a reed in the wind and rolls all the way through the takedown attempt to end up on top. The welterweights scramble back to their feet, and clashing kicks leads to Malott inadvertently kicking Holland in the groin. Miragliotta calls time, and Holland laughs it off and is good to go within 20 seconds. They resume, and Holland appears fine, as he reaches Malott and knocks him back with a clean left hand. “Trailblazer” leaps at his man with a right hand, and he keeps his balance when Malott wraps him up to drag him down. When they tie up, Malott drills him in the groin with a knee, and Holland is not so jovial about it as he collapses to his knees.
Miragliotta tells the replay officials that he could hear the impact of the second groin strike, and he tells Malott that he knows that it was an accident but reminds him that it was two infractions already and the second appears to have clearly compromised the Texan. Holland gets to his knees but is still clutching his groin, and he reaches in to try to adjust himself and nearly exposes himself on camera. The replay officials appear to be confused, even though it is clear on the video that there was contact on the cup. Holland tries to stand after two-and-a-half minutes, and he is frustrated that the crowd is booing him and pulls himself up to his feet all while shaking his head repeatedly. Miragliotta tells Holland to take as much time as he needs, which is a smidge over a minute remaining. Miragliotta gives Malott a stern warning for the second groin shot, with no point deduction as commentator Daniel Cormier laments there is no consistency in regards to officiating these days with a fighter earlier losing a point from the first foul. Holland tries as hard as he can to shake off the injury, and he tells Miragliotta he is good to go 15 seconds later than stoppage time.
He is still in serious pain, and he takes more time to tap gloves with Malott and backpedals. Holland still adjusts his cup while dodging swings aimed at his head, and Malott allows him to recover even longer before going at him with a right hand and a head kick that are out of range. Holland gets up close to deliver an uppercut, and he bounces back in pain. Holland walks off before time elapses, and Malott throws his hands in the air out of frustration. The round ends with Holland suffering greatly, and it’s anyone’s guess what will happen between rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Miragliotta calls in the doctor between rounds to check on Holland, who has not yet recovered. The doctor tells Holland that he will have to stop the fight if Holland cannot keep going, and again confusion and chaos is about as they are trying to ask him if he is able to continue. Holland doesn’t say yes or no, and instead grimaces in pain and adjusts himself. As he waits, eventually someone signals that he can keep going and that he cannot keep taking more time. The minute break may have been doubled based on that. Holland flashes his jab to keep his range and not let the Canadian to get him as he still tries to bounce around and relieve the pressure. Malott tosses out a half-hearted front kick, and Holland responds with a heavier one. Malott opens up with a flurry of fists, and Holland shoulder rolls them and takes a body kick. He keeps being his jab, and wings a clubbing right that is easily blocked, unable to put much power behind his punches. He ducks a takedown attempt and scoops a left around the guard to surprise his opponent. Holland swats out with lefts, and Malott tags him with a right hand. Malott’s front kick reaches the target of the jaw, and the replies from “Trailblazer” are a front kick and one to the calf.
The Texan narrowly avoids a left hand and pitches out a side kick, and they crack one another with simultaneous right hands. Holland slips back, and a front kick brushes the top of Malott’s shorts. Holland takes a heavy left hand and gathers his thoughts, sticking Malott with a low kick and a front kick. Holland sits down on a crisp right hand, and Malott walks through it. Holland adjusts his athletic support that is still bothering him, and a clinch leads to nowhere so they split up. Malott walks Holland down and decks him with several punches and a knee, and Holland rebounds off the fencing and fires back with a right hand to keep Malott honest. Holland tries for a one-two, and he is intercepted on the way out. Holland bloodies the Canadian’s nose with a jab and an uppercut that follows, and Malott tries to drive him back with a front kick but is elbowed for his handiwork. The round ends with Malott’s nose positively gushing blood.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Holland is still messed up from the groin shots, and tells Malott to keep things clean. They get down to it, with scores possibly two up for Malott or all tied up. Malott jabs the body with his toes outstretched, and Holland chips at his front leg a few times before darting him behind two left hands. Malott counters him up top, and lets Holland throw a kick to go for a big left hand. Holland re-opens Malott’s nose with jabs, and Malott takes a deep breath and blitzes forward. Holland keeps himself largely clear of danger, although the Canadian catches him with a few strikes. Holland’s own offense bounds off the guard, other than a stomping kick to the knee that briefly hyperextends it. Malott reaches out with a push kick to the upper chest, and Holland’s response is to the calf. Holland scores a single right hand and leans back from the obligatory counter, and Malott slides to the side and gets off a side kick and one high. Holland scoots his way forward and eats a few punches.
Holland lands a one-two, and Malott appears to get his attention as Holland bends over and briefly considers a takedown. He bails on it to stand up and further bloody up the Canadian. Malott runs at his opponent and lifts him off the ground, and Holland’s arm goes out of the cage as he apologizes and says he is not grabbing anything but just has long arms. Malott pulls him back inside and down flat on his back, and he smothers “Trailblazer” and bashes him with right hands. Holland uses upkicks and butterfly hooks to frame off, only for Malott to slice through and climb into half guard with 60 seconds remaining. Malott threatens with an arm-triangle choke, stepping over to full mount and then to the side to complete the submission. The ultra-slippery Holland reverse-somersaults to somehow get out of the submission, and he worms his way back to his feet with Malott right after him. The Canadian bullies him to the wire, and looks for a mat return to wrap things up. Instead, he elbows Holland once, and they shake hands after time expires with no bad blood between them. That was certainly a fight of all time.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott (30-27 Malott)

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott, citing his high fight IQ, technical improvements after the Magny loss, and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Kevin Holland's inconsistency and poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, calling it an all-time low. He trusts Malott's control and power.

"I got to go with Mike Malott."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady has zero trust in Kevin Holland after his loss to Daniel Rodriguez, calling him a dumbass and declining. He questions Malott's durability and cardio but picks him by default. He predicts Malott takes Holland down and submits him, noting Holland's ground game stinks.

Malott by submission
"I'm going to pick Mike Malott. I'm gonna pick Mike Malot to win this fight by submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody picks Malott, citing Kevin Holland's recent durability issues and high fight frequency. He notes Holland was knocked down twice by Daniel Rodriguez, a sign of declining chin. Malott has a wrestling advantage and can mix takedowns with striking. Cody believes Malott will win by decision or late stoppage, especially with home crowd support.

"I'm not going to take Kevin Holland. I'm going to go with Mike Malot."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Connor picks Malott, emphasizing that Holland cannot be trusted to fight disciplined. He notes that Malott is proficient and consistent, with sharp boxing in the pocket. Connor points out that Holland's approach of 'having fun' leads to messy fights, and his chin may be deteriorating after getting hurt by Daniel Rodriguez. He believes Malott can outwork Holland.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"I definitely have a lot more faith in Mike Molotu fight a smart fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

James admits he has a poor track record betting on Malott fights but picks Malott due to his skill set and potential improvements after the Neil Magny loss. He questions Kevin Holland's recent form and durability, noting Holland's poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez. James expects a slow-paced fight and predicts Malott via decision, though he is not confident.

"I will pick Mike Malot in this fight. I think that he's still coming into his own. I think he may have improved after that Neil Magny fight. I think he might manage his cardio a little bit better. I …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host thinks this is a tough stylistic matchup for Malott. He believes Holland can pick Malott apart from distance with his speed, range, and distance work, and will eventually find a big shot to put Malott away.

win by knockout
"I think Holland can really pick apart Melot from distance and Meot on paper is a better skill for skill fighter than Holland but I just don't think he can keep up with the speed, range or distance work of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Holland, arguing that the D-Rod fight was on short notice and Holland has had three months to prepare. He believes Holland's length and reach advantage will be key, and that Malott may gas as he did against Magny. Paul sees value in Holland as a dog and plans to bet him.

"Holland Holland's the pick for me at a pick on price."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott over Kevin Holland. He notes Malott's submission skills and takedowns, and his game plan against Neil Magny. He criticizes Holland's inconsistency and chin issues. He predicts Malott will chew at the leg, get takedowns, and finish by arm triangle submission in round two.

arm triangle submission in round two
"I'm going with Mike Malott, and I'm going to take Mike Malott by arm triangle submission."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Zane picks Malott, citing his composure, defensive soundness, and ability to pick targets. He notes that Malott can outwrestle Holland and kick his legs. Zane is concerned about Holland's inconsistency and recent poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, where Holland made terrible errors and got hurt. He believes Malott will fight a smart fight.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"So yeah, I'll take Molot over Holland, but it's not a bad test from a lot."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 1 82 of 173 47% 111 of 207 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:07
Kevin Holland 2 77 of 149 51% 111 of 189 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Kevin Holland 0 29 of 60 48% 32 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 12 of 28 42% 34 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:05
Kevin Holland 2 31 of 55 56% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Daniel Rodriguez 1 30 of 62 48% 37 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 34 50% 35 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 82 of 173 47% 53 of 126 13 of 22 16 of 25 60 of 137 17 of 27 5 of 9
Kevin Holland 77 of 149 51% 49 of 106 13 of 26 15 of 17 54 of 107 6 of 7 17 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 40 of 83 48% 20 of 50 6 of 12 14 of 21 39 of 81 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 29 of 60 48% 12 of 30 8 of 19 9 of 11 28 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 12 of 28 42% 8 of 21 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 21 4 of 6 1 of 1
Kevin Holland 31 of 55 56% 27 of 51 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 22 5 of 6 14 of 27
3 Daniel Rodriguez 30 of 62 48% 25 of 55 4 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 35 12 of 19 4 of 8
Kevin Holland 17 of 34 50% 10 of 25 4 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)

Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.

"Kevin Holland absolutely smokes here. He's faster, he's cleaner, he's more powerful."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.

Holland by first round knockout
"Give me Kevin Holland to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.

"I have to pick Kevin Holland. No matter what."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.

knockout
"I expect him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and I think he can utilize his speed and stinging power to eventually line up a knockout getting that victory over Daniel Rodriguez."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.

Fight lasts more than 10 minutes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going to go with Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.

"It just feels like a shoe-in for Kevin Holland."
WIN vs Vicente Luque
Submission R2 1:03 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 22 of 40 55% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 35 of 64 54% 39 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vicente Luque 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 24 of 46 52% 14 of 32 3 of 6 7 of 8 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 40 of 74 54% 25 of 58 5 of 6 10 of 10 26 of 56 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 22 of 40 55% 13 of 28 3 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 35 of 64 54% 23 of 51 5 of 6 7 of 7 21 of 46 14 of 18 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-265), Luque (+215)

Round 1
The referee for our main card opener is Keith Peterson. Luque takes the center of the Octagon, while Holland is already talking. Luque catches a kick, but Holland lands a half-dozen punches and makes his opponent pay for just standing there. A left hook from Luque hits the shoulder of Holland. Luque follows up a left hook with a nice leg kick. Holland lands a nice elbow that hurts Luque, who fires back with an overhand that keeps Holland from pressuring. Luque lands a double jab, which isn't enough to keep Holland from talking every second of this fight. There is a huge knot on the side of Luque's head where the elbow landed. It looks nasty. Luque stuns Holland with a left hook, but Holland responds nicely by slipping a punch and landing a right hook. Nice jab to the body by Holland. Luque lands a leg kick, which allows Holland to land a right hand. High kick from Holland is blocked.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
The round starts with Holland missing a huge right hook. Luque is struggling with the length of Holland, who is able to attack from a distance. Holland catches a kick from Luque and pushes him to the ground. Luque tries to get up, but Holland sinks in a brabo choke. It looks tight, and Luque is forced to tap.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque via Submission (Brabo Choke); R2, 1:03.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.

"Vicente Luc is going to be the pick. At least you can trust him to do what he's supposed to do."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.

Holland by KO in round 1
"I think Kevin Holland knocks out Lu and I think he does it in the very first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Connor thinks the line is fair.
"I also think this was a very winnable matchup for Kevin Holland."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.

Luque is a live underdog; Holland by KO
"I will stick with my prediction of Kevin Holland winning by knockout. But I think Vicente Luc is a very live underdog, especially if he can get to his takedowns and showcase his slick submission game as we've seen in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.

Finish prediction: decision win.
"I think Holland wins this one though, man. It's hard to get to Holland's chin moving forward..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane picks Kevin Holland, noting that when Holland fights on the back foot he uses his jab effectively and looks like a complete boxer. He believes Luque's slower reactions and declining chin will be exploited by Holland's reach and counterpunching. Zane thinks this matchup favors Holland's style, similar to his win over Jack Della Maddalena.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Zane thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think he'll win."
WIN vs Gunnar Nelson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gunnar Nelson 0 15 of 24 62% 30 of 44 3 of 10 30% 1 0 9:29
Kevin Holland 1 55 of 89 61% 138 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gunnar Nelson 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Kevin Holland 1 19 of 37 51% 31 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Gunnar Nelson 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 11 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:22
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 23 73% 73 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Gunnar Nelson 0 7 of 9 77% 10 of 13 1 of 4 25% 1 0 3:12
Kevin Holland 0 19 of 29 65% 34 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gunnar Nelson 15 of 24 62% 10 of 19 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 7 of 8 6 of 9
Kevin Holland 55 of 89 61% 30 of 57 15 of 20 10 of 12 15 of 34 22 of 27 18 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gunnar Nelson 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 37 51% 10 of 24 3 of 5 6 of 8 9 of 20 4 of 4 6 of 13
2 Gunnar Nelson 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1
Kevin Holland 17 of 23 73% 9 of 15 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 7 6 of 7 8 of 9
3 Gunnar Nelson 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 29 65% 11 of 18 6 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 12 of 16 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Gunnar Nelson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nelson (-130), Holland (+110)

Round 1
Dan Movahedi will referee Nelson’s first fight since March 2023. Holland opens with a pair of inside leg kicks. Nelson is operating from his usual karate stance. Another leg kick for Holland, who has a significant reach edge. Nelson tries to charge in, but he’s rebuffed by Holland. Holland with a long jab and right hand. Nelson shoots and gets Holland down. Holland is active from his back, threatening with submissions, but Nelson is a savvy grappler. Nelson stands and picks Holland up with one arm and both fighters share a laugh. Nelson goes back to work from above, but he’ll have to navigate his foe’s long limbs. Holland is landing hammerfists from his bck on occasion. Nelson with a solid right from top position. Holland lands an elbow from his back. Nelson is struggling to find openings for offense from above. The Iceland native drops a short elbow. Nelson stands and has to worry about Holland’s upkicks before moving back on top. They stand late in the round, and Holland drops Nelson with a one-two. He hovers over Nelson and drops heavy standing to ground shots. Nelson is saved by the horn, but Holland might've landed one after the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
Holland is aggressive, and he punches his way into the clinch behind an uppercut. Holland with a knee and a foot stomp. They separate and size each other up from range. Holland with a solid inside low kick. Holland is measuring the right hand that dropped Nelson in Round 1. Nelson is working hard for a takedown, but Holland is able to stay upright. Nelson adjusts against the fence, but Holland maintains his footing. Nelson is clinging to the leg, and Holland stays busy with short strikes. Nelson pulls Holland off the fence and drags him to the canvas with about 2:00 to go. Nelson is in top position, but Holland is active again, both with his guard and strikes from his back. Nelson is simply holding position as Holland continues to work from his back. Holland with an upkick as Nelson stands. Nelson works his way back into full guard as the round draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 3
Holland chips away at the legs of Nelson before they collide in the clinch. Holland lands a knee in close. Nelson counters with uppercuts, but another Holland knee gets through. Nelson decides against continuing to trade offense in the clinch, and he changes levels for a takedown. Nelson moves into full mount with ease. Holland kicks off the fence to remove Nelson from mount, but the grappling ace is still in top position. Holland is warned to remove his toes from the cage. Nelson absorbs a series of heel strikes to to the head. He responds by dropping a right from above. Nelson transitions to an arm triangle during a scramble. He’s close to the cage, but it looks pretty deep. Holland looks comfortable for now, and he’s able to eventually escape to his feet. Holland pushes Nelson into the fence. Nelson is looking at the clock now. Holland with a knee to the midsection. Back at range, Holland connects with a front kick. Nelson closes the distance but eats another knee for his efforts. Holland denies a takedown and the welterweights battle in the clinch. Holland breaks free and falls to his back after missing on a knee before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.

Small bet on Kevin Holland
"I am going to pick Kevin and I know his takedown defense is worse than my six-year-old daughter's... but damn it at times he's a good fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.

Holland by KO round 2
"One Last Ride Kevin Holland don't let me down knock this guy out give me Kevin Holland to win this fight and win this fight by second round knock out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"Yeah, I mean I just feel like because of the who gunner nelson always has been as a fighter ... he'll probably look pretty much exactly the same."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.

submission
"I think he'll be able to showcase that once again here, eventually getting the body lock, dragging this fight to the ground, and eventually finding the back and wrapping up a submission win over Kevin Holland."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.

submission round 1 (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna have to imagine Gana Nelson gets a takedown and gets a re naked choke over Kevin Holland"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"If we simply go with the assumption that nelson is going to look more or less the same ... I think kevin holland is going to leap right into his hands."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:31 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)

Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.

"I do think he wins this fight the odds are ing last time I said I thought he was going to win this fight he was a much bigger underdog now he's plus 115"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.

Mentions de Ridder may finish inside the distance with a submission. No specific odds.
"Rainer to Ritter that's exactly what he's looking to do he's not looking to have a fun striking match with you... he's looking to throw a right hand he's going to look to close that pocket get a hold of …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.

Odds: de Ridder opened +132, now -105; Holland opened -147, now -105. Connor thinks de Ridder deserves to be the favorite.
"I gotta take Reinier de Ridder."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.

Daniel took de Ridder at +126 for 2 units. He says the fade Kevin Holland World Tour continues and expects a submission win.
"I took uh rer der rder about a week or two ago at a plus 126"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.

"I'm going with the Ridder in this fight obviously it's a bit of a step up in competition from gm3 Kevin Holland is a Mainstay in the UFC but at the end of the day I don't think Kevin Holland …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.

submission victory
"I think he's going to struggle to keep darer off of him which will lead to dder eventually finding a dominant position and getting a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I'm with you I'll I'll take rer the Ritter at a pick on price here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.

submission
"I will take Raina Dara to submit Kevin Holland early or in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm gonna take de Ridder as well."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
TKO (corner stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)

Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance, decision no action
"Roman L is going to be the pick... I'm betting inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

submission, second round
"I'm liking delit here I think um I'm going to go with delid by submission here in the second round but I I could also see a scenario where you know the Striking is competitive if not favors Holland delit …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

"I'm actually going to go with Kevin Holland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm gonna pick roman dulce. Yeah in a really really ugly fight really frustrating."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Dolidze by submission +1400
"I will take Roman Dolidze, I think he gets the ground game going and I know Holland hasn't been submitted in a while and I know Dolidze hasn't had a submission in a while but what do you think that …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

"I think Roman Del wants the grown man this guy Pin him up against the fence makes him those takedowns I think he can do that"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

"I think Holland I'm afraid he's gonna like get underneath him on the ground and just do what he does lying on his back hopefully he does not do that because he's good enough grappling not to have to do …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

surprised that the line is as close as it is
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is as close as it is I think the Reckless fighting style of Del will lead him into getting picked apart by Kevin Holland"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

"I bet a little bit of deletes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

"I'm going to go Roman delzy I like Holland at welterweight I like Holland at welterweight they're a bit better down there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.

Holland opened at -142, now -137. Dolidze opened at +127, now +123. Zane is surprised Holland is favored.
"Gotta pick dulcie. He's big and strong and kevin will let him tie up and this will be that uh, you know."
Michael Chiesa - Fight History
WIN vs Niko Price
Submission R1 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:23
Niko Price 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:23
Niko Price 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.

Chiesa by submission round 1
"I think Michael Chiesa goes out there. I think he takes down Niko Price, and I think he runs through him like a hot knife through butter."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.

"Michael Chiesa is going to get the takedowns. And when he takes him down, he's going to sub him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.

Odds: Chiesa opened -500, now -600; Price opened +375, now +425.
"I think Michael Kiesa would have beaten Nico Price at every single point."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.

"I think that Chiesa's going to be able to use that physicality, backpack Niko Price, come out here and probably get a rear naked choke."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Michael Chiesa

The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Bets under 2.5 rounds as a better alternative to moneyline.
"I think it's quite likely Chiesa will take Price down and submit him pretty quickly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.

submission, parlay piece
"I don't mind parlaying Kiesta at this number. Uh I know he's at the end of his career, this is his retirement fight, but Nico Price at this point in time is a layup fight for him to get a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.

"Chiesa wins this fight pretty... He's a parlay piece this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.

"I think Kasa wins this with his grappling, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.

Odds: Chiesa opened -500, now -600; Price opened +375, now +425.
"Not a close booking at this point price is looking slower than ever."
WIN vs Court McGee
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 72 of 160 45% 81 of 169 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:32
Court McGee 0 39 of 145 26% 51 of 158 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 10 of 41 24% 11 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Chiesa 0 24 of 57 42% 25 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Court McGee 0 17 of 58 29% 20 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Chiesa 0 33 of 58 56% 41 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:11
Court McGee 0 12 of 46 26% 20 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 72 of 160 45% 47 of 128 25 of 32 0 of 0 52 of 132 20 of 28 0 of 0
Court McGee 39 of 145 26% 9 of 95 16 of 29 14 of 21 36 of 140 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 15 of 45 33% 15 of 41 0 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 43 0 of 2 0 of 0
Court McGee 10 of 41 24% 2 of 27 6 of 9 2 of 5 9 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 24 of 57 42% 20 of 53 4 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Court McGee 17 of 58 29% 4 of 39 4 of 9 9 of 10 16 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 33 of 58 56% 12 of 34 21 of 24 0 of 0 16 of 36 17 of 22 0 of 0
Court McGee 12 of 46 26% 3 of 29 6 of 11 3 of 6 11 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Court McGee

Angelo leans Court McGee because he is all-in on fighting while Chiesa has outside distractions. He notes that McGee looked great in his last fight and is durable. He believes whoever gets the first takedown wins, and McGee is strong enough to avoid submissions.

plus three and a half
"I'm going to go out on a limb and I'm going to pick him here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa by decision but is hesitant, noting that Court McGee has great takedown defense and has fought tough grapplers. He believes Chiesa has a little left in the tank while McGee is older and has been knocked out recently. He expects a competitive fight despite the wide line.

"I'm going to go Kesa here to win by decision but I just feel like it could be a little bit more competitive than the massive favorite line does indicate."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Chiesa's superior grappling will keep McGee in bad spots, likely snatching the back and grinding out a decision win.

"I have to lean with Kiesta here as I think his grappling will be superior..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The Guru picks Michael Chiesa by submission, noting Chiesa has been given favorable matchups recently (Tony Ferguson, Max Griffin). He expects Chiesa to take McGee down and get a submission in the first or second round, citing McGee's age (mid-40s) and Chiesa's back-take game.

Michael Chiesa by submission, round 1 or 2
"I'm going to take Michael Kasa to win this fight by submission. Um, I don't know who Michael Kasa has been nice to behind the scenes in the UFC to be getting all of these types of matchups when it …"
WIN vs Max Griffin
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:56 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 13 of 39 33% 54 of 87 2 of 8 25% 1 0 3:48
Max Griffin 0 10 of 34 29% 18 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 6 of 17 35% 12 of 25 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:35
Max Griffin 0 3 of 15 20% 5 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Chiesa 0 5 of 16 31% 38 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
Max Griffin 0 5 of 11 45% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
3 Michael Chiesa 0 2 of 6 33% 4 of 8 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Max Griffin 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 13 of 39 33% 11 of 33 2 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 29 4 of 10 0 of 0
Max Griffin 10 of 34 29% 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 6 of 17 35% 4 of 13 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Max Griffin 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 5 of 16 31% 5 of 14 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 2 of 5 0 of 0
Max Griffin 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 3 0 of 0
Max Griffin 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Griffin (-125), Chiesa (+105)

Round 1
It’s a quintessential grappler vs. striker matchup to hold serve in the welterweight division, as two aging vets look to show the matchmakers they still have plenty to offer even as losses have piled up of late. Birthday boy Chiesa (17-7, 12-7 UFC) snapped a career-long skid by tapping Tony Ferguson in August, while Griffin (20-10, 8-8 UFC) has alternated wins and losses in his last five. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the Octagon for the next three rounds or fewer, and he kicks the fight off as the 170ers opt not to bump fists. Chiesa strafes around the cage, not letting himself slow down so that Griffin can cut him off. Griffin walks him down, but he is unable to corner him early. Chiesa keeps his front hand open to engage with grappling instead of throwing it, and he hand-fights Griffin’s lead hand in the other stance. Chiesa punches his way into a takedown attempt, clipping Griffin with a left before dragging him to a knee. Griffin leans himself against the cage, and “Maverick” glides behind him. Chiesa slithers a hook in to tangle Griffin up, and Griffin stands up. Chiesa gets the other hook in from behind and he wraps his legs together to hang on as a mean-spirited backpack. Griffin wriggles his foe off of him and separates, resetting at striking range. Chiesa bounces and keeps moving, whipping a high kick that slaps off the raised guard. Griffin catches Chiesa in the midst of an exchange, and Chiesa’s counter is so wild he nearly swings himself down to the ground. Griffin lets him recover so he can stick him with a right hand, and Chiesa’s reaction is uncomfortable as he is momentarily stunned. Griffin loads up on power strikes, drawing some swelling beneath Chiesa’s left eye. Chiesa connects with a big left, takes a takedown and drives a knee into the chest. Griffin shakes it off and tags his foe with a right hand, and Chiesa nods at the blow and shoots for a takedown. Griffin hits the ground and scrambles wildly to explode to his feet. Chiesa wrenches him back down to the mat, and he wraps a body triangle around the waist and smacks Griffin in the back and sides of the head until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa

Round 2
Chiesa starts off the round fresh as a daisy, springing back and forth and picking his shots from the outside. Griffin’s counters hit nothing but air, and Chiesa punches his way into a takedown that is stonewalled. Griffin darts in with a right hand, and on the way out, Chiesa lands his own punch. Griffin whiffs when Chiesa ducks down on a takedown, and two more failed shots from Chiesa lead to a tie-up against the fence. Griffin wants nothing to do with this, exploding out of the clinch so he can continue stalking Chiesa down. Griffin comes up short on power strikes, with Chiesa escaping out the back door and surprising “Pain” with a head kick. Griffin ties him up and pushes the TUF champ against the wall. Griffin grinds his foe against the fencing, getting a knee in as he imposes his weight. Goddard asks for more activity, and Chiesa is the one who answers, changing levels for a takedown shot. Before it goes anywhere, Griffin twists him around, and he eventually works his way out. Chiesa ducks a left hand to try to take the fight down, and he surprises the older fighter with a sudden flurry of uppercuts and short punches that get Griffin’s attention. Chiesa’s momentum drives him into a clinch, and he wraps his left leg around Griffin’s so he can try to wrench him down. Chiesa partially takes the back while the two remain standing, and he works on Griffin with stay-busy strikes until Griffin turns around. The round ends with a Chiesa knee to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa

Round 3
Griffin comes out of his corner ready to throw hands, and he marches Chiesa down and tries to cut him off. Chiesa keeps moving, constantly going from side to side. As he swipes out a left hand, he shrugs after landing it. Griffin catches him with a right hand, and Chiesa retaliates and pursues a takedown. Griffin stonewalls him and pushes him aside, and he eats a right hand on the way out. As Griffin loads up, Chiesa trips him out with a single-leg takedown and takes his back. One hook in leads to two, and Chiesa hangs onto the back of “Pain” and fishes for an opening. Chiesa wraps up the rear-naked choke, and Griffin pushes off the fence to get just enough space in the grip to keep himself in the fight.
Chiesa refastens his choke and is primarily using his right arm to get it done, and as Griffin turns to his stomach, he enters the Danger Zone. Chiesa wrenches on the rear-naked choke with his other arm with sheer power and determination, and Griffin has no choice but to tap out before going out.
As Chiesa releases the sub, he walks off to celebrate. His legion of fans in the building start singing him “Happy Birthday,” and he dedicates his victory to recently deceased UFC staff member Derek Thompson.

The Official Result
Michael Chiesa def. Max Griffin R3 1:56 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Angelo picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog, believing Chiesa can use his grappling to neutralize Max Griffin's power. He notes Chiesa's improved fight IQ from coaching and analysis work. However, he acknowledges the fight is tricky and expects it to go the distance. He suggests possibly betting the spread (Chiesa +3.5) when props drop.

Maybe bet the spread (Chiesa +3.5), fight goes a little bit
"I'm going to pick Michael Kessa to win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and submission threat. He notes Griffin's takedown defense issues and close decision losses. He thinks Chiesa can grind out a win, though he acknowledges Chiesa's inconsistency.

"I'll side with Chiesa... it's Chiesa for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Connor picks Chiesa, arguing that Griffin lacks a defined game plan and often wanders out of fights. He notes that Chiesa is aggressive with his reach and clinch work, and that Griffin is not a submission threat, which is important because Chiesa has been submitted in most of his losses. Connor believes that if Chiesa pressures and forces clinches, Griffin will not have an answer.

"I think i'm gonna take michael kiesa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Daniel picks Chiesa as an underdog, citing Griffin's recent decline and takedown defense issues. He believes Chiesa's grappling and strength will be decisive once he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Griffin's lack of submission threat.

"Give me a KSA for the upset, actually."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Max Griffin

This is a fight between two flaky fighters, but I lean with Griffin's activity as of late. His ability to keep the fight standing and out-strike Chiesa on the feet will allow him to win on the scorecards.

"I do have to to lean with Griffin's activity as of late as I do think his ability to keep this fight standing and badrick K on the feet will allow him to win this fight on the scor cards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Paul picks Chiesa, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Griffin's struggles with grapplers. He notes Griffin's age and lack of finishing ability. He thinks Chiesa can control the fight and win a decision or submission.

"I like Michael Chiesa... he's going to be part of the PRP."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, though he calls it tricky. He believes Chiesa's grappling will be the difference, as Griffin has historically struggled with grapplers (citing Colby Covington fight). He thinks Griffin lacks the dynamic striking to finish Chiesa early, and trusts Chiesa to grind out a 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Michael ker I'm gonna go with Michael ker getting this one done I think his grappling is going to be the difference"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Max Griffin

Zane picks Griffin, noting that Griffin is a good athlete who has shown he can mimic game plans, as he did against Mike Perry. He points out that Chiesa has been submitted in almost every loss, and while Griffin is not a submission specialist, he might catch Chiesa in a guillotine. Zane also mentions that Griffin has been competitive with tough opponents and that Chiesa's recent losses have been to high-level grapplers.

"I think i'll take max griffin."
WIN vs Tony Ferguson
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:44 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 10 of 18 55% 4 of 9 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 4 of 25 16% 3 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 10 of 18 55% 4 of 9 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 4 of 25 16% 3 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Angelo is very confident in Chiesa, calling Ferguson's seven-fight losing streak and CTE concerns. He thinks Chiesa's takedowns and top pressure will be too much for the faded Ferguson, who hasn't looked good in years. He says Chiesa at -400 should be -1500.

"Michael Kessa is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady thinks this fight should not be sanctioned due to Ferguson's seven-fight skid and brutal losses. He notes Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and Nate Diaz, and Chiesa has been submitted five times but has three d'arce choke losses. He predicts Chiesa will take Ferguson down and finish him by first-round submission, but also mentions a sprinkle on Ferguson by submission at +1400 as a prop.

Tony Ferguson by submission +1400; fight ends by submission
"I'm going Cas a first round sub don't mind the sprinkle on the Tony Ferguson sub don't mind the fight ends by sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Cody picks Tony Ferguson as a wild underdog, citing Chiesa's poor cardio, tendency to get submitted, and mental lapses. He notes that Ferguson has incredible durability and confidence, and that Chiesa has been submitted by lesser grapplers. Cody thinks Ferguson can win by volume or submission if Chiesa tires. He acknowledges it's a risky bet but feels the line is too wide.

"I honestly do feel my heart like it's it's closer than that and for that reason wild Underdog pick I think I'm gonna go with Tony Ferguson as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Daniel refuses to pick a winner in this fight. He considers Chiesa a bully who can't take adversity and is overpriced at -750, while Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a seven-fight losing streak. He calls it a pass and says he won't pick either fighter.

"I refuse to give a pick on this one I you will not catch me dead saying the pick is minus 750 Michael Kessa in a UFC fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Chiesa has the grappling to keep Ferguson on his back, but he has been submitted in five of seven losses. I lean Chiesa by decision, but would not tie -610 to any parlays. The value is on Ferguson by submission at +1200.

Ferguson by submission +1200; would not tie -610 to parlays
"I'm still going to lean on Kessa to win this matchup by decision but no way would I tie minus 600 to any parlays the value is clearly on the Ferguson side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Paul picks Tony Ferguson, noting that Chiesa is a -700 favorite but has lost three straight and has cardio issues. He thinks Ferguson can win a volume-based decision or even submit Chiesa, who leaves his neck out. Paul acknowledges it's a 'plug your nose' bet but feels the plus money is worth a small play. He also mentions that Ferguson's confidence is unshaken despite the losing streak.

"I bet Tony Ferguson plus 500 and I'm expecting the worst but uh hoping for the best."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age (40) and inability to wrestle. He expects Chiesa to use his size and strength to take Ferguson down and submit him, possibly by arm triangle. He notes Ferguson's training at Knuckleheads Boxing is not improving his game. He predicts a first or second round submission.

submission, arm triangle, round 1-2
"I'm going with Michael ker I think he's too big too strong and he'll out wrestle Tony Ferguson"
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Submission (brabo choke) R1 2:39 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 4 of 11 36% 6 of 13 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:15
Michael Chiesa 0 9 of 16 56% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 4 of 11 36% 6 of 13 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:15
Michael Chiesa 0 9 of 16 56% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Chiesa 9 of 16 56% 7 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 4 of 5 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Chiesa 9 of 16 56% 7 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 4 of 5 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-145), Chiesa (+125)

Round 1
It has been over 22 months since “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 15 victor Chiesa (16-6, 11-6 UFC) has graced the cage, due to injuries. In the same span of time, his foe Holland (24-9, 1 NC; 11-6, 1 NC UFC) has fought five times. Both 170ers celebrate 11 UFC wins, but Chiesa joined the UFC in 2012 while Holland picked up his first victory with the promotion in late 2018. This quintessential striker vs. grappler affair will be overseen by referee Marc Goddard, and it opens up as the athletes touch gloves. Holland takes to the center of the cage immediately, and he keeps a low stance perhaps to stave off an early takedown effort. Holland works his way towards his opponent, using his long arm to reach out. He catches Chiesa early with multiple right hands and uppercuts, and Chiesa bounces off the cage wall and defends himself. Holland presses forward, and they clash together chest to chest. Holland hurls Chiesa to the mat on his back with emphasis, and he climbs on top before realizing he would be better suited on the feet. Chiesa tags him with a pair of uppercuts on the way up, and Holland walks him down, unconcerned by the power coming back at him. Holland smiles as Chiesa tries to close the distance, and he fights off a single-leg entry from “Maverick.” Holland defends it and puts his leg down on the floor, and he turns Chiesa around on the fence and starts talking to him. Holland miraculously defends from a body lock takedown, backs off and drills Chiesa with a jump knee. Holland pushes Chiesa back and belts him with a knee and a right hand. Chiesa leans over, and he eats a solid knee right on the chin. Chiesa drops to his knees, and he shoots for a double. Holland sees this coming from a mile away, and he instantly slides one arm beneath the armpit and another around the neck to secure a brabo choke. Holland uses the maneuver to turn Chiesa to his back, and the choke is still locked in tight. Chiesa tries to buck and shift his weight to get out of the submission, but “Trailblazer” is pressed tightly to him and not about to let go. With nowhere left to go, Chiesa taps out, and has now been submitted by these types of chokes three times in his UFC tenure. Holland leaps out of the cage and high-fives anyone that is willing to engage him, including the entire commentary booth as well as Chief Business Officer Hunter Campbell. Holland declares that he plans on relocating back to the middleweight division, but he looked sensational at 170 pounds against a very tough opponent.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Michael Chiesa R1 2:39 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his accurate and powerful striking, and the fact that Chiesa has been away from fighting and focused on commentary. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but thinks Chiesa's takedowns are not elite and that Holland's length and BJJ will be a problem. He has a half-unit bet on Holland at -145.

half a unit at -145
"Kevin's the pick I do have a half a unit on him at minus 145 but obviously the freaking takedown defense is gonna stress me out but I still think Kevin Hollins gonna get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round submission (club and sub). He argues that Holland's takedown defense issues were at middleweight, and at welterweight he should be more comfortable. He questions Chiesa's activity and focus, and notes Chiesa makes mistakes on the mat, having been submitted four times. He expects Holland to land a big shot or snatch a submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to say heaven Holland second round club and sub matchup"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Cody picks Chiesa by decision, noting Chiesa's style is kryptonite for Holland if he can get takedowns. He acknowledges Chiesa's layoff and injury concerns but believes at his best he can grind out a decision. He took the prop at +340, which he considered off-market. He is not fully convinced but sees value.

Chiesa by decision +340
"I took yeso by decision one of my books was hanging plus 3.99"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

James sees value on Chiesa as a dog, citing his clear grappling advantage over Holland, who struggles with takedown defense. He notes Chiesa will likely shoot multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground. However, he also acknowledges Holland's knockout power and submission threat, making him hesitant to bet heavily.

"I do think there is some value on him I do think there's some value on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Chiesa is a talented grappler who can close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Holland still has grappling issues and Chiesa will control him from top position. Holland's takedown defense improvements will be tested but I think Chiesa grinds out a decision. I'm going with Chiesa by decision.

"I'm going to go with kiesa here again this will be the fight where we see whether Kevin Holland has made the necessary improvements in his grappling defense to determine if he can break through to the next level I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul leans Holland, questioning whether Chiesa is still the same fighter after two years off and injuries. He notes Holland's BJJ black belt and improved wrestling with Johnny Hendricks. He thinks Holland can survive takedowns and win on the feet. However, he admits Chiesa's style is a threat and calls it a live betting situation.

"part of me wants to take the shot plus money Michael Kiesza Styles make fights"
LOSS vs Sean Brady
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 29 of 57 50% 71 of 107 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
Michael Chiesa 0 18 of 42 42% 51 of 80 5 of 8 62% 0 0 7:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chiesa 0 10 of 19 52% 19 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:43
2 Sean Brady 0 8 of 18 44% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Michael Chiesa 0 5 of 18 27% 18 of 32 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:41
3 Sean Brady 0 17 of 25 68% 38 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
Michael Chiesa 0 3 of 5 60% 14 of 18 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 29 of 57 50% 19 of 44 10 of 13 0 of 0 18 of 42 5 of 6 6 of 9
Michael Chiesa 18 of 42 42% 8 of 31 2 of 2 8 of 9 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 4 of 14 28% 2 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Chiesa 10 of 19 52% 3 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 8 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Brady 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Chiesa 5 of 18 27% 2 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Brady 17 of 25 68% 10 of 15 7 of 10 0 of 0 7 of 11 4 of 5 6 of 9
Michael Chiesa 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Michael Chiesa

Round 1
An important welterweight contest is now on deck, as TUF 15 winner Chiesa (18-5, 11-5 UFC) will look to hold the line and keep his spot in the top 10 against undefeated Philadelphia native Brady (14-0, 4-0 UFC). When the dust settles, a new contender at the logjammed 170-pound division could emerge. Referee Herb Dean’s got this one, and the fighters have nothing but respect for one another as they clap hands to start off. Brady leads the dance with a low calf kick, and Chiesa keeps his range as he leans forward with jabs. Both men shadowbox in front of the other, and Brady lets go with a right hand only to get swiped in the eye with a finger. Dean lets him recover and even brings in the doctor, and Brady clears it out enough to continue. They trade punches, with Chiesa keeping himself at a safe firing distance with his hands outstretched. Chiesa grabs Brady’s left hand with his own right, and lunges a left hand to smack Brady in the face. In another exchange, Chiesa’s left hand opens and his finger jabs into Brady’s eye. The swipe of the finger opens a cut on Brady’s face as well, and once more the doctor is invited into the proceedings. Chiesa gets sternly warned by Dean, and after a minute elapses, they get back to it again. Less than 90 seconds into the match, and two fight-impacting fouls have occurred. Brady powers forward, and Chiesa tries to back him off with jabs. Chiesa stays on his bike until he lets loose a body kick, and Brady catches it and tries to take Chiesa down. In the redoubled effort, Brady successfully grounds Chiesa, although “Maverick” jets back up to his feet as they start to have a conversation. They both share a laugh, and then Brady takes him down. Blood from Brady’s nose is leaking all over Chiesa’s back, but he does not notice as he instead looks to take Chiesa’s back. Chiesa powers his way back upright again, and he breaks the grip so that he can free himself and take the center of the cage. Chiesa walks through a body kick to lance Brady with a one-two, and Brady gathers himself to punch up top and kick down low. Chiesa looks to wing a right hand around the guard, and Brady’s glove is up in time. This close round ends as the two welterweights try to measure one another some more.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 2
They again touch gloves to commence the frame, and Chiesa begins the round with a few jabs. Brady looks to close in on him, and he tries to get past Chiesa’s reaching arms so that he can land flush. Chiesa pays him back for a heavy punch with a combination of his own. Brady comes back with a single strike, and then scores a slapping leg kick. They crash together to land flush on one another, and Chiesa needs to rest and circle away as he appears to have gotten the worse of the exchange. When he stands firm, he nails Brady with a left hand, and then catches an advancing Brady with a clean right hand. Brady runs forward into a single-leg takedown try, and Chiesa uses the wall to keep his footing about him. Chiesa puts a hand on the canvas to push off, and he tilts his shoulders to use his height as an advantage to frame Brady off of him and stop the attempt. Chiesa knees his foe in the chest a few times, but Brady is relentless as he latches on to a takedown and puts Chiesa on his seat. As Chiesa gets to a knee, Brady takes his back and snakes a hook around his waist. Chiesa appears irritated that he let this happen, and Brady gets the other hook in as he follows a twisting Chiesa wherever he travels. Although he cannot set up a choke, Brady secures the body triangle and locks it up tight. Brady sneaks an arm under the chin, but Chiesa sees it coming and stops it from succeeding. From this precarious position, Chiesa explodes out only to get dragged back down. Chiesa groans as he cannot get free before the round ends, upset with himself for getting outgrappled in this fashion.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 3
They hug it out to start off the last round, and Chiesa paws out jab after jab to start things off. The jabs turn into open-handed reaches, and he suddenly jumps in the air to pound his knee in Brady’s chin. Brady grabs him after he lands to turn him into the wall, but he does not hold him there for long. Chiesa is fired up, and he starts laying into Brady with powerful punches. Brady gets rocked and is wobbled after taking a long salvo of punches from “Maverick,” and he saves himself with a desperation takedown. Although the first attempt does not succeed, try, try again he does, and he manages to put Chiesa down. Like the last round, Brady easily circles around to take Chiesa’s back, and he gets the hooks in to secure the controlling posture. Chiesa frantically tries high-risk maneuvers like kicking himself high off the fence to get free, but there is nothing doing. Chiesa again grunts when Brady sets up and tightens the body triangle, wearing his emotions on his sleeve as Brady holds on to him. There is no choke to be found as Chiesa comfortably fights the hands, but the control time is firmly on the side of the unbeaten Pennsylvanian. Chiesa turns to break the body lock, and he succeeds in doing so to stand up. Chiesa hammers Brady with punches, but as soon as he drills Brady in the chest with a knee, Brady grabs it and slows him down. When Brady tries to take him down, Chiesa reverses him and puts Brady on the ground hard. Doing everything he can to finish the fight, Chiesa unleashes a storm of ground-and-pound, furiously pursuing a stoppage while Brady holds on for dear life. The final bell comes before the finish can materialize, and a disappointed Chiesa lets go and limps away when the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)

The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Michael Chiesa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Angelo picks Sean Brady, citing his athleticism, power, and 100% takedown defense. He notes Chiesa is one-dimensional and has cardio issues, while Brady is more willing to strike and has clean doubles. He does not bet the moneyline but likes a prop: Michael Chiesa +3.5 rounds (win at least one round) at -150, as he expects Chiesa to win the third round due to Brady's potential fatigue.

Considering Michael Chiesa +3.5 rounds at -150; DraftKings prices: Brady 8900, Chiesa 7300; monkey knife fight less/less (not touching)
"sean brady is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog at +140. He cites Chiesa's experience against top competition and his wrestling advantage. He notes that Sean Brady has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber and that Chiesa has controlled elite fighters like RDA and Neil Magny. He believes the striking is close but gives the wrestling edge to Chiesa, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Brady is coming off an injury.

win by decision
"I'm actually gonna take the dog here um a very unpopular pick this week i'm gonna take michael chiesa for the experience here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Cody is picking Brady but with low confidence due to the price tag. He notes that Brady is undefeated but has faced lower-level competition, while Chiesa is a step up. He highlights Brady's well-rounded skills: good striking, BJJ black belt, and excellent top game. He believes Brady can sprawl and out-strike Chiesa, and may even catch a guillotine if Chiesa gets reckless. However, he acknowledges Chiesa's size and durability, and that Chiesa has only lost to top grapplers like Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis, and Vicente Luque.

"i'm picking brady but not with too much confidence and minus 160 and not loving it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Daniel Levi confidently picks Sean Brady to submit Michael Chiesa. He argues that Brady is extremely skilled, physically strong, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu with 100% takedown defense in the UFC. He criticizes Chiesa for having only a Plan A and mentally checking out when his grappling fails. Levi believes that if Chiesa gets his takedowns stuffed, he will panic, and Brady will capitalize with a submission.

submission
"i think that kiesa is gonna maybe get a takedown early but if that doesn't happen... brady never loses his cool and then when brady gets on top i think he actually comes out here and submits michael kiesa so …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sean Brady

Lock likes Brady but has concerns about his lack of footage off his back. He thinks Brady's wrestling is strong enough to counteract Chiesa's, and that Brady has a striking advantage with leg kicks. He notes Chiesa has mental lapses and a desk job that might distract him. Lock predicts Brady by decision at +275.

Sean Brady by submission +300, Sean Brady by decision +275
"I'm going brady decision plus 275 but yes michael kiesa is live in my opinion."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Paul is also picking Brady but is nervous about laying -160. He points out that Chiesa was a favorite just one fight ago against Vicente Luque, and that loss was a first-round submission that doesn't fully reflect the competitiveness. He notes Chiesa's size and ruggedness, but also his low striking output and lack of ground-and-pound. Paul thinks Brady's superior striking and grappling will eventually figure Chiesa out, but he's not confident enough to recommend a bet at the current price.

"i'm just nervous about laying laying a minus on uh on brady this is a massively you know massive step up"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog over Sean Brady. He argues that Brady has had close fights with Court McGee and Jake Matthews, and lacks KO power. He highlights Chiesa's size, reach advantage, and improvements on the feet. He expects a slow first round, then Chiesa to grind Brady against the cage, take him down, and finish with a rear-naked choke in the second round.

late second round rear-naked choke
"i'm going with another underdog michael kiecer is going to beat sean brady"
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission (D’Arce choke) R1 3:25 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 4 of 12 33% 6 of 16 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:01
Michael Chiesa 0 7 of 12 58% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 4 of 12 33% 6 of 16 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:01
Michael Chiesa 0 7 of 12 58% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Chiesa 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 1 of 1 4 of 4 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Chiesa 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 1 of 1 4 of 4 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Michael Chiesa

Angelo is hesitant but leans Chiesa, noting that Chiesa is one-dimensional with wrestling but can dictate where the fight goes. He acknowledges Luque's power and improved wrestling camp with Kami Barzini, but thinks Chiesa's relentless grappling may be too much. He calls it a close fight and says he would avoid betting the moneyline.

"I think Kiesa will probably win the fight because he doesn't care how stupid he looks... he will just come forward, try to grab something and hold it there."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady believes Chiesa's wrestling and top control will be the key. He notes Luque is hittable and has been taken down before, while Chiesa shoots for takedowns immediately and limits opponents' striking opportunities. He thinks Luque is finish-or-bust and will likely lose a decision. He picks Chiesa as a dog by decision.

Chiesa by decision; Luque inside distance if he wins
"I will take the guy that I think is going to win minutes in Michael Chiesa and I'll take him as a dog and I'll take him by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and ability to neutralize Luque's striking. He notes that Luque has struggled against wrestlers in the past and that Chiesa's top control and pressure will be effective. Cody expects a decision win for Chiesa.

Chiesa by decision
"i am going to take michael kiesa it is probably going to be by decision and again at plus 110 it's an underdog play so uh sign me up for some kies a plus one tip"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Vicente Luque

Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to finish Michael Chiesa, citing Luque's striking advantage, calf kicks, left hook, and opportunistic submission ability. He believes Chiesa is outgunned on the feet and will have to shoot from distance, which could lead to a guillotine or other finish for Luque. He also notes that Chiesa hasn't been truly tested at 170 and that Luque is a clear step up in competition. He thinks the line should be closer to -160.

Says Luque by finish; thinks line should be -160
"I'ma go Vicente Luque to finish Michael Chiesa and I think it'll be a tough fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Chiesa is a big welterweight with strong wrestling and grappling. Luque is a dangerous striker but has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber. Chiesa should take the fight to the ground and control Luque, avoiding striking exchanges. Luque's BJJ off his back is not elite, and Chiesa can grind out a decision or find a submission. The decision prop at +240 is good value.

Chiesa by decision +240
"I like kiasa here I'm gonna take him to win this fight by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a 'dogger pass situation' and taking Chiesa. He notes that Chiesa's wet blanket style may not be pretty but is effective, and that he usually avoids stand-ups by staying busy in half guard. Paul prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.

over 2.5 rounds -140
"i'm on the same side as you i think it's a dogger pass situation give me the wet blanket it may not be pretty"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Michael Chiesa's poor stand-up and inactivity, and believes Luque's power and takedown defense will be key. He predicts Luque will catch Chiesa coming in for a clinch and finish him with an uppercut-hook combo. He also notes Chiesa's grappling doesn't do enough damage.

first round ko
"i'm going to go vicente lucay here getting a big ko win in the first round against michael chiesa brutally"
WIN vs Neil Magny
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 24 of 52 46% 93 of 125 4 of 6 66% 0 0 15:21
Neil Magny 0 12 of 50 24% 52 of 96 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 7 of 16 43% 21 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 0 3 of 26 11% 4 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Chiesa 0 6 of 11 54% 20 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:11
Neil Magny 0 1 of 3 33% 10 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
3 Michael Chiesa 0 3 of 7 42% 14 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:04
Neil Magny 0 4 of 8 50% 15 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
4 Michael Chiesa 0 5 of 10 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:32
Neil Magny 0 3 of 5 60% 22 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
5 Michael Chiesa 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:29
Neil Magny 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 24 of 52 46% 19 of 43 3 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 29 1 of 2 13 of 21
Neil Magny 12 of 50 24% 7 of 42 5 of 7 0 of 1 8 of 45 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Neil Magny 3 of 26 11% 2 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8
Neil Magny 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 2
Neil Magny 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Michael Chiesa 5 of 10 50% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 7
Neil Magny 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Michael Chiesa 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3
Neil Magny 1 of 8 12% 0 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady initially leaned towards Neil Magny but changed his mind after tape study. He believes Michael Chiesa's wrestling and top game will be decisive, noting Magny's 59% takedown defense and that he hasn't faced many wrestlers lately. He praises Chiesa's performances at 170 lbs and predicts he will grind out Magny for a decision win, possibly finding a submission. He says he might bet Chiesa if the line gets wider.

Chiesa by decision; possibly by submission; waiting for better line
"i'm on the chaser side i like this matchup for him i really do"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Neil Magny

The host believes Neil Magny's cardio, pressure, and fight IQ will be too much for Michael Chiesa in a five-round fight. He notes that Chiesa's best chance is a submission in the first two rounds, but if Magny survives, he will take over. He predicts a late TKO for Magny, possibly in the fourth round.

"i'll go in neo-magni i think he wins this fight pretty handily as long as it gets out of that first round and a half mark"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Neil Magny

The MMA Guru picks Neil Magny, citing his takedown defense, cardio, and well-roundedness. He believes Chiesa has poor stand-up and will gas out after setting a high pace in the early rounds. He notes Magny's ability to survive submissions (as Sanchez and RDA did against Chiesa) and predicts a fourth-round TKO as Magny takes over in the later rounds.

fourth round TKO
"i'm going to go with neil magne getting the job done against michael kiesa"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his accurate and powerful striking, and the fact that Chiesa has been away from fighting and focused on commentary. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but thinks Chiesa's takedowns are not elite and that Holland's length and BJJ will be a problem. He has a half-unit bet on Holland at -145.

half a unit at -145
"Kevin's the pick I do have a half a unit on him at minus 145 but obviously the freaking takedown defense is gonna stress me out but I still think Kevin Hollins gonna get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round submission (club and sub). He argues that Holland's takedown defense issues were at middleweight, and at welterweight he should be more comfortable. He questions Chiesa's activity and focus, and notes Chiesa makes mistakes on the mat, having been submitted four times. He expects Holland to land a big shot or snatch a submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to say heaven Holland second round club and sub matchup"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Cody picks Chiesa by decision, noting Chiesa's style is kryptonite for Holland if he can get takedowns. He acknowledges Chiesa's layoff and injury concerns but believes at his best he can grind out a decision. He took the prop at +340, which he considered off-market. He is not fully convinced but sees value.

Chiesa by decision +340
"I took yeso by decision one of my books was hanging plus 3.99"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

James sees value on Chiesa as a dog, citing his clear grappling advantage over Holland, who struggles with takedown defense. He notes Chiesa will likely shoot multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground. However, he also acknowledges Holland's knockout power and submission threat, making him hesitant to bet heavily.

"I do think there is some value on him I do think there's some value on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Chiesa is a talented grappler who can close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Holland still has grappling issues and Chiesa will control him from top position. Holland's takedown defense improvements will be tested but I think Chiesa grinds out a decision. I'm going with Chiesa by decision.

"I'm going to go with kiesa here again this will be the fight where we see whether Kevin Holland has made the necessary improvements in his grappling defense to determine if he can break through to the next level I don't think so"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul leans Holland, questioning whether Chiesa is still the same fighter after two years off and injuries. He notes Holland's BJJ black belt and improved wrestling with Johnny Hendricks. He thinks Holland can survive takedowns and win on the feet. However, he admits Chiesa's style is a threat and calls it a live betting situation.

"part of me wants to take the shot plus money Michael Kiesza Styles make fights"