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Age 39
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Raoni Barcelos
4.92 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.4 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
2.22 TD Avg
31.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Said Nurmagomedov
3.08 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.05 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.86 TD Avg
15.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Raoni Barcelos - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 1 35 of 66 53% 72 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Raoni Barcelos 0 21 of 38 55% 33 of 51 6 of 18 33% 2 0 7:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 1 14 of 24 58% 46 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Raoni Barcelos 0 3 of 4 75% 7 of 8 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:49
2 Montel Jackson 0 13 of 19 68% 15 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raoni Barcelos 0 8 of 17 47% 15 of 25 1 of 7 14% 1 0 2:14
3 Montel Jackson 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raoni Barcelos 0 10 of 17 58% 11 of 18 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 35 of 66 53% 26 of 57 8 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 53 3 of 5 6 of 8
Raoni Barcelos 21 of 38 55% 7 of 18 8 of 11 6 of 9 13 of 30 7 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 14 of 24 58% 10 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 13 1 of 3 6 of 8
Raoni Barcelos 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Montel Jackson 13 of 19 68% 9 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 8 of 17 47% 2 of 7 3 of 5 3 of 5 6 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Montel Jackson 8 of 23 34% 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 10 of 17 58% 5 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 12 5 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
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Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-175); Barcelos (+140)

Round 1
The fighters in this next main card offering weigh roughly half of what the two heavyweights in the last bout amassed, and speed kills at 135 pounds. “Quik” Jackson (15-3, 9-3 UFC) saw his mighty six-fight win streak come to a halt last year when Deiveson Figueiredo narrowly outpointed him, so he is in search of getting back in the green. Ageless wonder Barcelos (21-5, 10-4 UFC), who turns 39 next Friday, has won four in a row and could be poised to make a run. Referee Jason Herzog will make sure everything is copacetic.
The longer Jackson takes a few seconds to measure his opponent, and with his long reach, he clips Jackson with a head kick that shakes the elder statesman to his core. Barcelos hits the ground, and Jackson proceeds to hammer him with concussive blows. Barcelos takes them mostly on the chin, surviving and moving enough to stave off Herzog, all while huge strikes collide with his head time and again. Barcelos gets through the initial assault and turns to his knees in pursuit of a takedown, pushing the longer fighter against the wall. When there is no takedown to come from it, he spins out and ducks knowing that Jackson will—and does—swing at him. Jackson’s jab is money, and his follow-up left is destroying Barcelos’ face. Barcelos right eye is swelling and badly damaged halfway through the round.
Ignoring the pain, Barcelos closes in and trips Jackson to the floor. Barcelos climbs on top, and when Jackson tries to set something up off his back, Barcelos powerslams him. Jackson scrambles upon the impact, and Barcelos grabs his shorts in hopes of hanging on. Herzog admonishes him for the foul, and Jackson squirms his way out. Barcelos looks to jab his way in, but the range is a seemingly insurmountable task for the older man when he tries to box. Barcelos has to sell out and rush forward to swing, but when he gets close enough, he grabs hold of “Quik” and hurls him to the mat like a junior high wrestling coach against a new recruit. Jackson turns to his side, and Barcelos starts fishing for rear-naked choke. On the third attempt, it is under the chin, but Jackson is not about to give up. Time is up before the submission is complete.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Herzog informs Barcelos between rounds to not grab the shorts or commit any position-changing fouls lest he deduct a point. They engage again, with Barcelos slowly, methodically working his way in. He looks to counter even with Jackson the far longer man, and he does not sell out or get reckless to advance. When he finds his openings, he draws ever closer, until he is near enough to crash the pocket and go for a level change. Jackson keeps his balance with his back to the cage, and he works his way out and resets.
Barcelos stays pressing the pace, walking through the fire that Jackson swings at him with every single effective blow. Barcelos takes the strikes on the chin and looks to engage his grappling. He does not force the action or put himself off-balance, instead measuring his blows efficiently to set up and further open up offense. Barcelos beats on his opponent until Jackson turns around to give up his back, and with seconds to spare, Barcelos once again goes for the rear-naked choke. The Brazilian wraps his left arm under the chin, and Jackson keeps his hand ready to tap but hears his corner saying he can make it to the bell and does just that.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The grizzled veteran—14 UFC fights to Jackson’s 12—Barcelos goes right after Jackson in the final frame, looking to take the offense out of his opponent and prevent him from landing hard on him. As he controls Jackson against the cage for a prolonged time, he cannot secure a level change. Jackson works his way out, and Barcelos chases him and gives him a right hand on the jaw to think about. Jackson appears surprise, and he fires big punches at Barcelos that Barcelos ducks. Barcelos gets his hands on Jackson, and he sweeps the leg and puts Jackson down.
Jackson works back to his feet and lifts Barcelos off the ground with a knee in the clinch. Barcelos throws one back, and they trade hands up close until Jackson gets the space he was seeking. Jackson doubles up on a jab to the temple, whipping a rear-leg high kick at him that Barcelos blocks in time. Barcelos walks through the offense to wrap his hands around Jackson, where he takes him for a ride with a trip and throw. Jackson bounces back up, and Barcelos looks for a mat return with a single. Barcelos boots Jackson right in the face, bloodying his nose with it, and he lets Jackson charge him to turn that against him. Like the previous two rounds, Barcelos takes the back position and is fishing for a choke. Also like those rounds, there is no truly deep submission, so time expires and it’s all up to the judges. It could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Montel Jackson via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo leans on Montel Jackson, noting his power and wrestling background. He points out that Jackson's three UFC losses came when he couldn't defend takedowns, but believes Raoni Barcelos's age may prevent him from getting takedowns. He worries that Jackson might be gunshy due to wrestling concerns, which could allow Barcelos to win with empty takedowns. He says Montel should win but the fight could get weird.

"I'm going to lean Montel here. But, I am worried that he's going to be gunshy because he's worried about the wrestling."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson but with hesitation. He acknowledges Jackson's talent and power but notes his inconsistency and lack of effort in some fights. He believes if Jackson shows up, he can knock out Barcelos, who is older and has a questionable chin. However, he warns that Jackson could lose if he doesn't try.

Jackson wins by first round knockout
"Give me Jackson here. Jackson to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Barcelos. He highlights that Jackson has a mental block and doesn't do enough, relying on his size to intimidate opponents. Barcelos, however, is not intimidated and will wrestle him. Connor notes that Jackson's losses all come from opponents who out-wrestled him, and Barcelos fits that mold. He thinks Barcelos's pressure and takedowns will lead to a win.

"I'm forced to agree."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Raoni Barcelos

The host notes Jackson has many physical advantages but is mentally inconsistent, often passive and inactive. Barcelos is mentally strong, high output, and aggressive. He believes Barcelos has a good chance if Jackson is not at his best. He prefers Barcelos +3.5 because Jackson lacks killer instinct and often goes to decision, and Barcelos should win at least one round.

Barcelos +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision
"Barcelos very live underdog here, very risky to bet him cuz he's second best everywhere, but if Jackson's not at his best, I think there's a really good chance that Barcelos will outwork him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

James picks Barcelos as an underdog, believing his veteran skills and pocket boxing will overcome Jackson's power. He thinks Barcelos can follow the blueprint from Figueiredo's win over Jackson, using takedowns and pressure to win a decision or late submission.

"I'm going to pick him as the underdog here. I'm going to say Barcelos gets a probably a decision win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Barcelos is on a four-fight winning streak with improved durability and a well-rounded game. He can use lateral movement, kicks, and wrestling to neutralize Jackson's power. Jackson is gun-shy and struggles against wrestlers. Barcelos has more paths to victory and should win a decision, though he risks getting knocked out if he gets caught clean.

"I think Barcelos has more paths to victory here and I think he can successfully stay away from the knockout power of Jackson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Zane picks Barcelos, noting that Jackson's losses come against wrestlers who take him down, and Barcelos is a good wrestler. He also observes that Barcelos's losses are to high-volume strikers, which Jackson is not. He thinks Jackson's tendency to coast and not do enough will be exploited by Barcelos's pressure and grappling. He acknowledges Barcelos is 38 but believes his style matches up well.

"I'm picking honey Barcelos."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricky SimĂłn 0 67 of 181 37% 77 of 191 0 of 6 0% 0 1 1:25
Raoni Barcelos 0 82 of 187 43% 86 of 194 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricky SimĂłn 0 24 of 52 46% 34 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:45
Raoni Barcelos 0 16 of 33 48% 19 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:09
2 Ricky SimĂłn 0 16 of 47 34% 16 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Raoni Barcelos 0 32 of 71 45% 33 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ricky SimĂłn 0 27 of 82 32% 27 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Raoni Barcelos 0 34 of 83 40% 34 of 83 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricky SimĂłn 67 of 181 37% 57 of 165 9 of 15 1 of 1 58 of 170 3 of 4 6 of 7
Raoni Barcelos 82 of 187 43% 53 of 150 19 of 24 10 of 13 80 of 184 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricky SimĂłn 24 of 52 46% 20 of 46 4 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 42 2 of 3 6 of 7
Raoni Barcelos 16 of 33 48% 9 of 26 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ricky SimĂłn 16 of 47 34% 13 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 32 of 71 45% 21 of 57 8 of 9 3 of 5 32 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ricky SimĂłn 27 of 82 32% 24 of 75 3 of 7 0 of 0 27 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 34 of 83 40% 23 of 67 8 of 12 3 of 4 33 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Ricky Simon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-160); Barcelos (+130)

Round 1
Sticking to the bantamweight division but flipping over to men, a pair of relative elder statesmen in the promotion come to blows with hopes of pushing their unlikely win streaks one step forward. Some six and a half years after getting wasted by Urijah Faber and totally written off, Simon (22-6, 10-5 UFC) has gone on a pair of respectable runs since then. The same can be said for 38-year-old Barcelos (20-5, 9-4 UFC), who once had a rough patch where he dropped four of five. Someone’s fortuitous stretch is about to crash into the proverbial wall, and referee Keith Peterson will follow the athletes every step of the nonsense-free way. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
Simon sprints to the center of the cage and looses a head kick that goes wide. He pushes out a front kick, and Barcelos whizzes past him with a fireball of a right hand. Barcelos jabs the body and allows Simon to leap at him, staying out of range so there is no strike to come from it. Simon sticks the Brazilian and moves, and Barcelos strides forward and is belted with an uppercut. Barcelos takes it well, and the two consider grappling but bail on it to brawl it out. Both men are putting everything into their swings, and Barcelos clips Simon and then shoots in for a double. Simon scrambles wildly and flips Barcelos over, where he starts smacking Barcelos around with high-arcing hammerfists.
Simon lashes out with elbows while Barcelos keeps him contained with butterfly hooks, and both men trade while in a horizontal position until Barcelos kicks off to stand up. Simon reaches him at the end of a right hand, and Barcelos wings on the overhand right counter. Simon dings the Brazilian with a one-two, and his jab is money. Barcelos smashes Simon in the face with a ruthless right hand, and somehow Simon not only sticks with it but returns fire with an uppercut that nearly lifts his man off the ground. Both men are no worse for wear from the mighty exchange, and Simon tries to sneak in a head kick that is blocked in time. Barcelos opens up upstairs with a pair of punches, and Simon backs him off with jabs. Barcelos tries to take the fight down, and he abandons it to slash out with an elbow up top. A final Simon takedown is blocked to end what was a close, tense round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 2
Barcelos starts off the round with a double jab and a right hand up top. Simon swings back with a huge overhand right, and Barcelos ducks it and plants a right on the jaw. Barcelos times a thumping calf kick and overswings on a right hand while chasing the man, and Simon knees him in the jaw. Barcelos digs a left to the body, and Simon’s quick kick and right hand greet him in rapid succession. Barcelos scrapes the side of his uppercut off the head, and he drops down for a low single and hurls Simon to a knee. Simon scrambles out of reach and gets back to his feet, only for Barcelos to ring his bell with a crisp uppercut and a power right hand. Barcelos crashes into his foe with a leaping uppercut, and Simon tries to time a double when he lands. Simon pushes Barcelos up against the wire, but the sprawl of Barcelos prevents the Washington native from going anywhere. Barcelos escapes with little more than a knee to the belly, and he allows Simon to circle all the way around him so he can find his angle in. Simon lands first with a right, but Barcelos connects last and the heavier of the two.
Barcelos goes to the body and then head, and he scoops Simon up and deposits him gingerly on the canvas. Simon jumps right back up, and Barcelos does not mind as he can trade hands with his foe. Simon scores an uppercut, and Barcelos reaches him with three punches over the guard. A naked leg kick from Simon is met with a two-punch salvo, and Barcelos rips a right to the body to punctuate the combo. Simon counters a low kick with a right hand, and Barcelos stands firm and jacks him in the jaw with a right hand and an uppercut. Simon dances and keeps Barcelos guessing with awkward movement, entries and exits that rely on speed and potshots with evasive movement. They both shoot at the same time and clash heads like bulls, and proceed to trade punches and kicks to end what is another tight round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The final round opens with the Brazilian pushing the pace. He watches Simon attack and sways to dodge everything but an uppercut, and he storms back to nail Simon with a one-two that forces a takedown shot. Barcelos sits down on a right hand, Simon replies, and Barcelos comes over the top. Barcelos leaps in and lands a right after Simon’s strike connects on him, and Simon’s jab has bloodied the bridge of the Brazilian’s beak. Barcelos rubs his nose and busts Simon in the chops with a stiff right hand. Simon’s one-two also scores, but Barcelos still has the power edge and is putting more strikes together.
Both men go back and forth with their offensive offerings, with Simon just missing an uppercut when Barcelos ducked down. Barcelos jams a knee to the body, and he plants his shin on the side of Simon’s lead leg. Barcelos drops down for a snatch single, and he releases it and busts open Simon’s nose with power punches. Barcelos follows a punch with a high kick, and then goes back to a one-two. Simon’s stabbing jab is effective, as is his overhand right and uppercut to follow, but Barcelos stuns him when landing flush. Barcelos’ rights have Simon’s attention, and Simon tries to walk him down to attack the liver but finds himself in a slugfest. Barcelos goes after a double and bails on it to come back with an elbow, and knees fly from both men effectively after. Simon steps in with a sharp elbow, and both fighters unload their gas tanks and swing for the bleachers. Simon takes a kick in the face and screams for Barcelos to keep engaging, and they bang it out to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ricky SimĂłn

Angelo picks Ricky Simon because of his non-stop wrestling pace and power in his hands. He believes even if Raoni Barcelos has early takedown defense, Simon's relentless pressure will eventually get takedowns. He notes that Barcelos is aging and that wrestlers are not spectacular off their backs.

"I'm still picking Ricky here. I feel pretty good about it. Ricky's wrestling is non-stop, so even if Haney has early takedown defense, I don't think it's going to remain throughout 15 full minutes."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Big Brady struggles with this pick, noting SimĂłn has looked awful in recent fights and may be slowing down due to accumulated damage. He thinks Barcelos has better striking and both have questionable chins. He leans with the 38-year-old Barcelos to win by decision, but admits it's a sketchy pick.

decision
"I'm going to lean with the 38-year-old and Barcelos to win this fight by decision, but this is one that's definitely sketching me out a little bit."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and superior boxing volume. He thinks SimĂłn's wrestling will be neutralized and Barcelos will outwork him over three rounds.

"Overall after 15 minutes, Ronnie Barcelos should have the bigger and greater body of work. So he should get the nod in my opinion and I'm gonna pick him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ricky SimĂłn

Lucrative James is confident in Ricky SimĂłn, going against the market. He believes SimĂłn's wrestling and cardio advantage will be key, as Barcelos ages and has shown a deteriorating chin and gas tank. He expects SimĂłn to mix takedowns and land big overhands, possibly finishing Barcelos. He also notes Barcelos has been hurt in recent fights.

"I'm going to pick Ricky Simone. I think Ricky Simone can hurt and actually finish Barcelos on the feet with big overhands."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ricky SimĂłn

The host acknowledges Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but believes SimĂłn's wrestling, athleticism, speed, and power will be decisive. He expects SimĂłn to find a big shot and knock Barcelos out.

Knockout
"I believe Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but Simone is the better wrestler and closer to his prime. And I think that should allow him to utilize his athleticism advantage, speed advantage, and power edge."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Paul sees it as a 50/50 fight but likes Barcelos at plus money. He thinks if SimĂłn can't get takedowns, Barcelos's striking and experience will carry him.

"Rowdy at plus 140, plus 150 seems like a decent little shot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ricky SimĂłn

The Guru picks Ricky SimĂłn to win by first-round TKO. He believes SimĂłn's well-rounded game and explosiveness will overwhelm the aging Barcelos, who relies on exploiting specific weaknesses. He notes SimĂłn has no glaring holes in his grappling or pressure defense, unlike Barcelos's previous opponents.

round 1 TKO
"I'm going to go Ricky Simone getting this one done by a TKO finish in the first round."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Garbrandt 0 28 of 94 29% 45 of 111 0 of 7 0% 0 1 0:46
Raoni Barcelos 0 37 of 85 43% 43 of 93 1 of 11 9% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Garbrandt 0 10 of 44 22% 10 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Raoni Barcelos 0 6 of 19 31% 8 of 21 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:16
2 Cody Garbrandt 0 6 of 27 22% 14 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Raoni Barcelos 0 15 of 35 42% 17 of 38 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:31
3 Cody Garbrandt 0 12 of 23 52% 21 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:33
Raoni Barcelos 0 16 of 31 51% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Garbrandt 28 of 94 29% 23 of 85 3 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 86 6 of 7 0 of 1
Raoni Barcelos 37 of 85 43% 31 of 75 0 of 3 6 of 7 33 of 76 4 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Garbrandt 10 of 44 22% 10 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 6 of 19 31% 5 of 15 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Cody Garbrandt 6 of 27 22% 4 of 24 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 15 of 35 42% 14 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 28 2 of 7 0 of 0
3 Cody Garbrandt 12 of 23 52% 9 of 19 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 1
Raoni Barcelos 16 of 31 51% 12 of 27 0 of 0 4 of 4 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Cody Garbrandt
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barcelos (-180), Garbrandt (+150)

Round 1
Of the three Codys competing tonight, Garbrandt (14-6, 9-6 UFC) is the last one to try to get on the board for his namesake. The former champ, who celebrates about 80% of his wins by knockout, takes on a man five years his elder but no less dangerous than ever in Barcelos (19-5, 8-4 UFC). Most notably, the Brazilian derailed the hype train of Payton Talbott in January, firmly ruling out that he was washed up and ready to get tucked into bed. Referee Mike Beltran draws the assignment to watch over the bantamweights, watching them bump fists together to start the match. Garbrandt starts fast, rushing forward with four punches and a head kick. Barcelos bounces off the fence, and Garbrandt surges towards him with a trio of flying fists. Another combo comes from the former champ, and Barcelos ducks it and tries to take him down. Garbrandt hops away and resets, already wary of the possible takedown in play. Garbrandt measures with a single body kick, and he rails Barcelos with three speedy punches. Barcelos drops to a knee, and Garbrandt points at him. As Barcelos stands, he goes after a takedown. Garbrandt ducks away from it, dodges an overhand right and falls to 50/50 when Barcelos looks for a takedown. When the takedown does not materialize, Barcelos leaps at him and splits open Garbrandt’s eyebrow with his knee. Garbrandt backs away, avoiding a flying switch kick as chants for “Let’s go, Cody” echo in the building. Barcelos lands first after they stop calling for the former champ, working the body with a left. Barcelos has a head kick slap off the raised guard, and he rolls with a right hand over the top. Garbrandt swings and misses with a pair of punches, and his second effort to the body gets in. “No Love” shows Barcelos no love by tossing him out of the way, although the Brazilian recovers and fires off an uppercut that gets through. Garbrandt knees up the middle and tags Barcelos with two fast punches, and Barcelos gets his attention with a strong overhand right. Garbrandt thinks about showboating or dancing but evaluates that the strike did some damage and plays it cool. Barcelos attacks a single, and Garbrandt pops out of it and partially checks a calf kick flying at him. Garbrandt has three or four punches land, and he does a little dance. Barcelos takes him down, and Garbrandt gets away with an illegal upkick while scrambling. Barcelos climbs into top position, lands a few hammerfists, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt

Round 2
The fighters high-five before getting after it, and Barcelos is quick to engage his wrestling. Garbrandt’s overhand right goes wide, and he plants his feet to defend the takedown effort. Another try also comes up short, and Garbrandt pushes off and loads up on quick punches. Barcelos chases Garbrandt around the outer edge of the cage, chambering and firing a right hand but missing with the follow-up. Barcelos chops down the front leg, and he ducks down and eats a right hand while looking for a single. When the takedown is not successful, Barcelos clips him with two right hands. Garbrandt defends a double, but a knee up the middle from the Brazilian tags him cleanly. Garbrandt puts out two punches that further develop some swelling on Barcelos’ right cheek, but Barcelos ignores it and shoots for a single. Garbrandt stuffs it, turns his man to the side and elbows him cleanly for it. Barcelos keeps the pressure up, walking through a low kick and a body shot to catch “No Love” with his overhand right. Barcelos times a crisp uppercut and drops down for a single, lifting Garbrandt’s leg way up in the air. Garbrandt still stays upright, takes a right hand and puts his leg down. Barcelos connects with another big right, and he reaches out with one to the midsection. Barcelos jabs his way forward, scooting back to avoid all but a left hand in a combination. Garbrandt rolls with a right hand on the way out, but the jab from the Brazilian is finding its home repeatedly. Barcelos loads up on a right hand and ducks down, before unleashing another right hand that nearly puts the champ down. The round ends with Garbrandt shooting for a desperation takedown.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and Barcelos gets right back to pressuring. Garbrandt keeps him at bay for less than a second with a body kick, as Barcelos walks him down behind his overhand right. Garbrandt shoots for a single, and Barcelos laughs it off. A second takedown from Garbrandt is nowhere near being successful, and Barcelos pays him back with a calf kick that turns Garbrandt’s knee. Garbrandt gives him back two low kicks to think about, and he absorbs a flush right hand when circling away. Barcelos kicks at his front leg again, setting up his jab and right hand. Garbrandt rushes forward but is out of range for his combo, and he gets sat down with a leg kick. The former champ shoots for a takedown and finds his way into a guillotine choke setup, but he breaks out of is as he leans against Barcelos. The Brazilian breaks free, and Garbrandt connects at the end of a right and a left. Barcelos clubs him with a one-two that forces the striker to shoot in on his hips, and he holds Garbrandt down and circles around to the side in hopes of taking the back. Barcelos manages to take the back after softening Garbrandt up, and he sneaks a hook in. “No Love” lands some no-look punches, but Barcelos is singularly focused on shutting down any hopes of escape. Garbrandt pushes his feet on the wall to turn himself around, where he drops down two punches before Barcelos explodes. The two fighters burst back to their feet and start slugging it out, with Garbrandt landing flush and Barcelos doing the same. Garbrandt waves him on, and Barcelos instead backs off. Garbrandt scores a right hand and is chucked out of the way like a child’s plaything when attempting a single. Garbrandt points to the ground to initiate a brawl, but Barcelos goes the opposite direction and evades him until the fight wraps. Barring something unexpected, all three Codys struck out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Cody Garbrandt via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Angelo leans Cody because he is faster and has power, while Raoni lacks power in his hands. He warns that Cody must avoid getting taken down. He is not confident enough to bet on Cody given his recent struggles.

I don't think I'm going to bet
"I think I'm going to slightly lean Cody here. I think he'll be a little faster."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by second-round knockout. He believes Garbrandt's takedown defense is elite (80%) and that he can keep the fight standing. He notes Barcelos is 38 with a questionable chin, and Garbrandt has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges multiple outcomes but leans toward a knockout.

second round knockout
"Cody Garbrandt stuffs the takedowns, keeps it on the feet, lands a big shot, and knocks out the 38-year-old Hani Barcelos in the second round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Connor picks Barcelos, emphasizing that Garbrandt's wrestling has declined and that Barcelos's chain wrestling and takedown variety will be a major threat. He notes that Garbrandt's tunnel vision when he feels confident often leads to him getting taken down, as seen against Figueiredo. Connor also points out that Barcelos is 38 and chinny, so Garbrandt could still knock him out, but Barcelos's wrestling should be the deciding factor.

Garbrandt opened at +117, now +159; Barcelos opened at -153, now -183. Connor agrees the line should not be too wide.
"I'm picking barcellos but i like the fight this is a good this is a good use of both men"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Despite public love for Barcelos after his upset win, Garbrandt has good takedown defense and superior striking. He will chip away at Barcelos and win a decision.

"I think Garbrandt has good enough takedown defense and the ability to put together a better striking game... pulling off the upset and winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

The Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, stating he is 'done with Cody Garbrandt.' He criticizes Garbrandt's fundamental flaws in striking and grappling, such as giving up his back and poor low kicks. He notes Barcelos has faced tough competition and fraud-checked Payton Talbott. He expects Barcelos to win by decision or TKO in the second round.

"I'm just going to go with Hani Barcelos. I think I think I'm done with Cody to be honest. ... I can't pick Garbrandt to win a fight in 2025."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Zane picks Barcelos, citing his deep wrestling game and ability to chain takedowns, which should be effective against Garbrandt's shaky takedown defense. He notes that Garbrandt has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and that Barcelos's wrestling has improved with age. However, Zane acknowledges that Barcelos's striking has become a liability and that Garbrandt still has one-punch power, making this a dangerous fight for both.

Garbrandt opened at +117, now +159; Barcelos opened at -153, now -183. Zane says if Garbrandt becomes a much bigger underdog, he might become a bet.
"I have to pick barcellos but like these guys are at a point in their career where they are asking each other the right questions"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos 0 49 of 84 58% 59 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Payton Talbott 0 62 of 85 72% 91 of 115 8 of 15 53% 2 0 9:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raoni Barcelos 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Payton Talbott 0 8 of 11 72% 19 of 23 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:51
2 Raoni Barcelos 0 25 of 44 56% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Payton Talbott 0 17 of 22 77% 23 of 28 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:35
3 Raoni Barcelos 0 22 of 38 57% 31 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Payton Talbott 0 37 of 52 71% 49 of 64 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raoni Barcelos 49 of 84 58% 39 of 74 7 of 7 3 of 3 37 of 67 7 of 10 5 of 7
Payton Talbott 62 of 85 72% 59 of 81 2 of 3 1 of 1 18 of 30 5 of 5 39 of 50
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raoni Barcelos 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 11
2 Raoni Barcelos 25 of 44 56% 21 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 2 25 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 17 of 22 77% 14 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 16 2 of 2 4 of 4
3 Raoni Barcelos 22 of 38 57% 18 of 34 4 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 22 6 of 9 5 of 7
Payton Talbott 37 of 52 71% 37 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 3 of 3 27 of 35
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Payton Talbott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Talbott (-1200), Barcelos (+750)

Round 1
A red-hot commodity in flashy, undefeated Talbott (9-0, 3-0 UFC) will serve as the preliminary headliner, hoping to wrest the torch from aging Brazilian Barcelos (18-5, 7-4 UFC) in a pivotal bantamweight affair. Talbott has only heard the final bell one time, while his opponent can say he has been involved with more decisions than Talbott has pro fights. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the arbiter of this bout, and the fighters acknowledge him and one another but do not tap their gloves together. Barcelos starts the fight by leaping at Talbott’s left leg, pursuing a single without letting the youngster get started. Talbott backs himself to the wall and sets up a guillotine choke, but the veteran trips him up and puts him on his seat without fear of the submission. Talbott is loudly warned by grabbing inside of Barcelos’ gloves, and he wall-walks to get back up and lean against the fence. Barcelos laces his legs between his opponent’s in hopes of snaking him down, and he jumps on Talbott’s back to further threaten him. Talbott shakes him off, and Barcelos tries again to be a malicious backpack but settles for pulling the unbeaten fighter face-first to the floor. Barcelos wraps his leg around the waist for a single hook, and Talbott is once more warned for foot grabs. Barcelos times a Talbott scramble perfectly to wrap his forearm around the neck, only to let it go so he can start slugging Talbott on the side of the head. Talbott turns to his side while under fire, and he fights off a choke and finds himself in a second. Barcelos does not have the choke under the chin and is more neck/face cranking him to make his life miserable, and he once more releases it to shift into full mount. The Brazilian drops down a powerful elbow and he moves to half guard to he can set up an arm-triangle choke, squeezing down hard but not going for broke to get it done. Talbott remains calm and composed despite getting dominated, and Barcelos leaps over him and holds him down from the other side while in half guard. Barcelos gets directly to full mount like a hot knife cutting through butter, and he lets Talbott give up his back so he can go for one final choke before time runs out in the round. The one-sided round ends before Barcelos can get it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos

Round 2
The fighters race towards one another to start the second round, and Talbott is the aggressor as he pushes jabs out to keep Barcelos honest. Barcelos scores a few low kicks, but one is met with a right hand over the top. Barcelos shoots, and Talbott shuts him down. As Talbott slides forward to strike, Barcelos deftly trips him up and places him flat on his back. Barcelos lands immediately in half guard, and he is active on top. Talbott scrambles to get to his knees, and he takes a knee on the chin while freeing himself. Talbott walks Barcelos down with long, straight punches, and Barcelos returns fire with a right hand that leads into a clean takedown. The Brazilian hits the mat on top in side control, and he leaps into full mount uncontested. Barcelos gets a little high, and before Talbott can buck him off or sneak out the back, he moves himself down a bit. This does not matter, as Talbott still escapes to get up, but not before taking a knee on the liver. Talbott is surprised by the strike, opening Barcelos up to nail him with a spinning back fist. The prospect walks forward ready to trade, and he connects with a few punches only to get nailed with a right hand on the way back. Talbott smiles and waves him on, as he is much more comfortable in a wild striking exchange than a grappling affair. Talbott shucks off a takedown and connects with a powerful uppercut, and he fights off another takedown try. On the third, Barcelos manages to wrangle Talbott to the floor, and he gets to half guard and hops to the side to drop down a powerful elbow. As Barcelos is about to set up a crucifix, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The bantamweights get right to it to start off the last round, with Talbott pressuring fully and clipping Barcelos with an uppercut. A few more punches are strung together, and Barcelos goes after a telegraphed takedown. Talbott sees it coming and hits a beautiful throw that reverses the Brazilian and puts him on the mat. As “USA” chants echo through the Intuit Dome, Barcelos worms his way to the fencing but absorbs some ground-and-pound to get there. Talbott scores a few punches, and Barcelos tosses his leg up to hook an omoplata shoulder lock. As he does this, he hooks his hand in the fence, and Dean sees it and pauses the fight. Dean offers to take away the position from the foul, and when Talbott says no, they resume in the position they left off. Barcelos explodes back to his feet and blasts the youngster with a flurry of punches, including a flying knee that does some damage. Talbott responds with a flying knee that rocks the Brazilian, and as they both hit the ground from wild strikes, they climb back up and trade again. Barcelos backs off to take some breathes, and Talbott drops his hands and marches forward like a Terminator. Barcelos fakes a level change, and Talbott answers with a spinning wheel kick that slaps him in the face. Barcelos grins and attacks another takedown, landing it and taking some of the wind out of the American’s sails. Talbott turns to his knees, and Barcelos follows him every step of the way and wraps his legs around his waist. Barcelos slides into full mount when Talbott turns to his back, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke. Barcelos releases the choke and sits up to wrench on the arm with an unorthodox straight armbar, and he switches gears for a rear-naked choke that is not under the chin. Talbott signals a thumbs-up, and Barcelos lets it go to pound on Talbott with punctuating ground-and-pound. Barcelos unleashes a fury of punches and elbows, laying down one final bombardment that only ends with 15 minutes elapsing—a few more seconds and he might have gotten the stoppage. The elder statesman put on a show here, shutting down the likely formerly unbeaten prospect and spring what may be “Upset of the Year” with Talbott closing with a betting line around -1200. What a performance, as Barcelos appears to have found the fountain of youth at the tender age of 37.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Payton Talbott via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Angelo is extremely confident in Payton Talbott, citing his youth, speed, and striking ability. He believes the age and speed gap will be decisive and expects Talbott to potentially knock out Barcelos. He warns against betting Talbott at -1200, calling it too risky.

Do not bet on -1200 favorite.
"pyon talot should win this fight now should you bet on him no these are fist fights minus 1200 is far too gone"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Cody picks Payton Talbott confidently, viewing him as a rising star. He notes Talbott's exceptional striking, athleticism, and rapidly improving takedown defense. Cody points out that Barcelos is 37 and has slowed down, with recent losses showing regression in wrestling, striking defense, and reflexes. He believes Talbott's speed and power will be too much, and that Barcelos's best days are behind him. Cody expects Talbott to win dominantly, possibly by knockout.

No specific prop bet mentioned, but Talbott is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay.
"I'm not stepping in front of the tow but... I thought about this long and hard I was like what at what number would I consider betting rowny"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout, citing his volume, power, and swag. He notes that Barcelos is almost 40 and has taken too much damage in recent fights. Daniel mentions that Barcelos is a savvy vet but Talbott is quicker, younger, and more durable. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects Talbott to win by knockout.

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects a flashy finish.
"I'm gonna go pay and Tabet here by knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Payton Talbott

The host is a huge Barcelos fan but acknowledges Talbott is a much slicker striker who uses speed and power to land big shots. He expects Talbott to put Barcelos away in under one and a half rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"he's going up against a much Slicker Striker who utilizes speed and power to land big shots on celos and put him away in under one and a half rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Talbott. He notes that Talbott looks like he's in the Matrix and is a new-generation fighter. Paul believes Barcelos is too slow and past his prime, and that Talbott's speed and striking will be decisive. He also mentions that Barcelos has been taken down and outworked by younger fighters recently. Paul is not stepping in front of the Talbott train.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I'm not stepping in front of talbet here bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

The MMA Guru picks Payton Talbott to win by TKO. He notes Barcelos' chin is deteriorating with age (37), and Talbott is a big bantamweight with reach advantage. He worries about Talbott's activity and social media distractions but believes he will catch Barcelos on the feet. He predicts a KO late in the first or second round.

TKO
"I'm actually going to go with another KO win for pton tabot maybe late in the first or in the second round"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:04 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos 0 29 of 82 35% 43 of 99 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:13
Cristian Quiñonez 0 43 of 74 58% 48 of 81 2 of 12 16% 2 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raoni Barcelos 0 4 of 20 20% 17 of 35 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:13
Cristian Quiñonez 0 12 of 16 75% 13 of 18 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:19
2 Raoni Barcelos 0 18 of 49 36% 19 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cristian Quiñonez 0 20 of 44 45% 22 of 46 0 of 6 0% 1 0 0:15
3 Raoni Barcelos 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cristian Quiñonez 0 11 of 14 78% 13 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raoni Barcelos 29 of 82 35% 17 of 67 3 of 6 9 of 9 26 of 75 3 of 7 0 of 0
Cristian Quiñonez 43 of 74 58% 26 of 54 5 of 7 12 of 13 38 of 68 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raoni Barcelos 4 of 20 20% 2 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cristian Quiñonez 12 of 16 75% 7 of 11 1 of 1 4 of 4 11 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Raoni Barcelos 18 of 49 36% 13 of 42 1 of 3 4 of 4 16 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Cristian Quiñonez 20 of 44 45% 15 of 36 2 of 4 3 of 4 16 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 1
3 Raoni Barcelos 7 of 13 53% 2 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 4 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cristian Quiñonez 11 of 14 78% 4 of 7 2 of 2 5 of 5 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Cristian Quinonez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barcelos (-175), Quinonez (+145)

Round 1
Wrapping up the preliminaries with a bantamweight clash, 27-year-old Mexico native Quinonez (18-4, 1-1 UFC) wants to usher in a new generation of fighters and boot out aging competitors like Barcelos (17-5, 6-4 UFC), age 36. To keep things on the up-and-up, referee Bladimir Puga will take charge in the cage. There is a quick glove touch to precede the action, and Quinonez reaches out with multiple jabs only to get pushed back by a front kick. Barcelos chops down the lead leg with a kick, and he shoots in for a single that gets stuffed. Quinonez reaches him with a long right hand, and he flicks out a jab and a right to follow. Barcelos lands a low kick and drills the Mexican in the side of the head with a right hand, and Quinonez reels and backs himself to the cage. Barcelos attempts a takedown, and Quinonez stops it and turns him around against the wall. Quinonez drives a knee to the solar plexus, and he hangs on Barcelos to take some of the sting out of his shots. Barcelos tries for a throw, and both men climb back up. Barcelos tags his man with a right hand, and Quinonez reels and retaliates with a quick left hook. Barcelos swings with bad intentions, and Quinonez smoothly dodges the offense and prepares his counters. When Barcelos lands a single low kick, Quinonez greets him with four punches to the body and head. Barcelos continues moving forward, landing a double and dragging Quinonez to the floor. Quinonez pops back up, and he succeeds in wrenching Barcelos to the mat briefly in response. Quinonez looks for a body lock takedown, and Barcelos grabs the fence to prevent himself getting taken down as Puga slaps his hand. Barcelos again tugs on the cage to stop a takedown, and Puga once more warns him loudly while slapping his hand. Barcelos takes a few knees to the head, and Barcelos gets pulled away from the cage briefly. Barcelos gets away with another fence grab, and he spins with an elbow that grazes off the head. Quinonez wrestles his man to the mat in a scramble, and Puga shouts to Barcelos to not grab the cage. Quinonez sits on top of his opponent in partial side control, and he rains down right hands and an elbow to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez

Round 2
The bantamweights touch gloves to get started in the second round, and Barcelos hops out with a leg kick. Quinonez flicks out a high kick and aims one low, and he pushes out a jab before Barcelos can meet him with a response. Barcelos charges with two right hands, and Quinonez shoulder rolls and keeps flowing to not eat any further strikes from the Brazilian. Quinonez kicks low and high, with the second shot blocked. Quinonez parries a strike coming his way, and he absorbs a low kick after missing a right hand. Barcelos lands a leg kick, and he backs his man off with two lunging punches. Quinonez resets and wings a right, and he prods the Brazilian’s nose with a few jabs. Barcelos comes up short on a shovel uppercut, and Quinonez keeps his range with jabs. Barcelos sits down on a leg kick, and he shrugs off a right hand so he can land two of his own. They both jab at the same time, and Barcelos reaches out to connect with a heavy right hand. Quinonez retaliates with a blistering right hand, and as he staggers the Brazilian, he finds himself getting taken down. Quinonez stands back up, and he gets rocked with a right hand coming his way. Quinonez drops to a knee, and Barcelos blasts him in the chest with a knee. Quinonez protests, and Puga says it was legal, so Barcelos sprints at him and hurts him with a combination. As Quinonez is in sudden danger, Barcelos grips hold of a standing guillotine choke to boot. Barcelos cannot complete the submission, and he backs off to take a breath. Both men start trading shots, and as Barcelos starts to fade, Quinonez stays in his face and tags Barcelos with a straight right hand. Barcelos goes for a single, and Quinonez springs to the side to stay on his feet. Both men land with right hands, and Barcelos gives chase to toss out two more. Quinonez dings his foe with a leg kick and two punches, and Barcelos walks him down and lands one punch behind the ear. The two crash together right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez

Round 3
The last round opens with Quinonez trying to keep his distance, popping an oncoming Barcelos with chipping kicks and jabs. Barcelos gives chase all the while, landing occasionally, but Quinonez connects more actively. Barcelos telegraphs with big right hands, and Quinonez sees them coming and sways just enough to avoid them. Barcelos kicks him in the ribs twice, and when Quinonez responds with his own body kick, Barcelos grabs the leg and tosses Quinonez down to the canvas. Barcelos shifts to get into half guard, and he ultimately takes Quinonez’ back in a scramble.
Barcelos fastens a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye, and it is now academic at this point. Barcelos squeezes and exerts every remaining bit of his energy to complete the submission, and Quinonez has no choice but to surrender in a fight he had done well to that point.
This a crucial win for the 36-year-old, whose place on the UFC roster may have been at risk with a loss. As Barcelos celebrates his win, he also expresses a great deal of pain and hangs his left hand low, indicating that he may have sustained a shoulder injury early in the match.

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Cristian Quinonez R3 2:04 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Cristian Quiñonez

Angelo picks Quiñonez as the underdog, citing Barcelos' age (36) and recent skid. He notes that Barcelos has lost to fighters he shouldn't have and that lower weight classes age out faster. He believes Quiñonez is younger, fresher, and more durable.

"Underdog pick Christian konas he is not the better fighter in this matchup but he is absolutely the younger fresher more durable fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Cristian Quiñonez

Big Brady picks Cristian Quiñonez to win by first-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes that if this fight were three years ago, he would max bet Barcelos, but Barcelos is now 36, looks older, and has durability and cardio issues. Quiñonez has power and is nine years younger, and Barcelos has been finished multiple times. However, both fighters have questionable durability, and Brady expects someone to get finished.

Quiñonez wins by KO in round 1
"I'm going to take Quinones here to to land a big shot and knock knock out barcelos I think somebody is getting served here though both these guys are are both these guys I do think can be finished but …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his superior boxing, wrestling, and experience. He notes Quiñonez has been finished in all his losses, has poor takedown defense, and gives up his back. Barcelos is a seven-time Brazilian national wrestling team member and has sharp counter-punching. He thinks Barcelos can make mistakes and still win.

"I gotta go with my boy rowny Bellos normally because I'm a big rowny Bellos you know Fanboy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cristian Quiñonez

The host believes Quiñonez's volume striking and footwork from distance will give Barcelos trouble. He notes Quiñonez's speed advantage and output, and his ability to stay away from pocket exchanges where Barcelos is dangerous. He also mentions Quiñonez's takedown defense and get-ups, and cautions that he must not get overzealous like in the Kong fight. He predicts a decision victory for Quiñonez.

"I think konz has the type of style that will give marcelos issues the volume style and footwork heavy style of konas from distance will allow him you to to use his speed advantage and output to try to touch …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Barcelos. He notes Quiñonez seems KO-robust but Barcelos has the skills to neutralize him. He mentions Barcelos completely neutralized Trevon Jones, outlanding him 73-11 in significant strikes. He thinks Barcelos is a fine parlay piece at -200.

"rowny seems like a fine parlay piece at minus 200 to me"
LOSS vs Kyler Phillips
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyler Phillips 1 72 of 187 38% 80 of 196 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:47
Raoni Barcelos 0 46 of 116 39% 52 of 124 3 of 11 27% 0 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyler Phillips 1 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Raoni Barcelos 0 18 of 45 40% 20 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:30
2 Kyler Phillips 0 22 of 58 37% 29 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
Raoni Barcelos 0 9 of 27 33% 11 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:54
3 Kyler Phillips 0 20 of 61 32% 20 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Raoni Barcelos 0 19 of 44 43% 21 of 46 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyler Phillips 72 of 187 38% 40 of 146 18 of 26 14 of 15 62 of 174 6 of 8 4 of 5
Raoni Barcelos 46 of 116 39% 20 of 87 15 of 17 11 of 12 39 of 105 7 of 10 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyler Phillips 30 of 68 44% 14 of 48 9 of 13 7 of 7 26 of 63 4 of 5 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 18 of 45 40% 12 of 38 4 of 4 2 of 3 13 of 37 5 of 7 0 of 1
2 Kyler Phillips 22 of 58 37% 16 of 51 3 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 51 1 of 2 4 of 5
Raoni Barcelos 9 of 27 33% 2 of 20 5 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Kyler Phillips 20 of 61 32% 10 of 47 6 of 9 4 of 5 19 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 19 of 44 43% 6 of 29 6 of 8 7 of 7 18 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Kyler Phillips
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Phillips (-198), Barcelos (+164)

Round 1
Kevin MacDonald will ref this bantamweight pairing. Phillips opens with a leg kick and a 1-2. Barcelos blocks a body kick. A right connects for the Brazilian. Phillips with a stiff jab and then he partially lands an overhand right. Barcelos catches a low kick and drives Phllips into the fence. Phillips jumps guard and hunts for an armbar. He kicks Barcelos off him and hustles back up. Barcelos with a right uppercut. They trade, and Barcelos eats a head kick but catches the leg. Phillips frees himself from the body lock. Phillips moves well, landing a 1-2. Phillips has a takedown stuffed and Barcelos tags him on the exit. Moments later, a right puts Barcelos on his seat. Barcelos recovers quickly, however. Barcelos is cut on the bridge ofhis nose. Barcelos stalks his man against the fence and lands some combinations. They tie up and Barcelos is still throwing heavy leather. Phillips fires back. Barcelos flicks out a nice jab then backs up Phillips with some heavy hooks. They clinch and Phillips shoves him off. Phillips lands a glancing head kick that Barcelos catches. They continue to trade until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 2
Phillips lands a two-punch combo, catches a leg and takes Barcelos to the mat. Phillips drops some elbows while Barcelos is active with his guard. Barcelos eventually scrambles up. Barcelos blocks a high kick. Phillips with a leg kick. The pace has slowed from Round 1. Barcelos lands a right and a left hook, then shoots for a takedown. Phillips denies it. Phillips snaps his foe’s head back with a straight right. Another Phillips high kick is blocked, but he connects with a 1-2. Barcelos changes levels and has Phillips in a body lock. Phillips tries to use a kimura to defend, but Barcelos maintains his grip. He lifts Phillips and dumps him on the mat. Phillips rolls for a kneebar in a scramble and that allows him to stand. Phillips flicks out a couple of jabs. Barcelos pressures forward and they trade knees in close. Phillips fires off another jab and misses a combination at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 3
Phillips grabs a leg, lets it go and knees the midsection. Barcelos with a solid low kick. Phillips answers a high kick with a standing side kick to the gut. Phillips stays on the outside, but Barcelos partially lands a knee upstairs. Phillips kicks the body but it bounces off Barcelos’ elbow. Barcelos with an inside leg kick. He catches Phillips’ kick and dumps him to the canvas, but Phillips bounces right up. A Barcelos right uppercut digs to the body. Phillips is content to remain on the outside moving laterally. Barcelos stalks him and lands a jab. Barcelos just misses an uppercut through the guard of his foe. A front kick down the middle lands for Barcelos and he pressures with punches. Phillips lands a counter right in response. Barcelos shoots for a takedown against the fence and briefly pulls him down. Barcelos releases the body lock and deftly throws a kick upstairs. That draws a smile from Phillips before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Phillips)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Phillips)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Phillips)

The Official Result
Kyler Phillips def. Raoni Barcelos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Angelo picks Raoni Barcelos despite his recent skid, believing he is the better fighter everywhere except age and youth. He notes Barcelos has superior wrestling, technical striking, and BJJ. He warns that Kyler Phillips is sloppy and lacks one-punch power, so Barcelos should control the fight with wrestling. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Barcelos at +143 but says this is his last time betting on him and advises not to tail blindly.

0.5 units at +143
"Honey's gonna be the pick I think he's gonna use some wrestling here to control this is my last and final time betting on honey bar solos"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Big Brady is very uncertain. He notes Barcelos has elite takedown defense, so Phillips' wrestling won't work. However, Barcelos is 36, on short notice, coming off a brutal KO loss, and has declined. Phillips is coming off a PED suspension. He thinks it will be a close striking match and picks Barcelos by split decision with little confidence, saying he'd rather be on the dog money.

Barcelos by split decision; fight goes to decision
"I'll take barcelos with little to no confidence in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos as a plus-money underdog, citing his well-rounded skills, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Phillips' tendency to fade in later rounds and his questionable takedown defense. He believes Barcelos can survive the first round and take over as Phillips gasses. He also suggests a live bet on Barcelos after the first round.

"I've got faith in him to get the job done plus money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Daniel Levi picks Raoni Barcelos, though he admits he has no strong read. He likes Barcelos' well-rounded skills (black belt in BJJ, Brazilian wrestling team, good striking) but is concerned about his age (36). Levi notes that Phillips is explosive but slows down badly in fights, and that Barcelos' output and durability could be factors. He is not worried about the Umar Nurmagomedov knockout, crediting Umar's skill. Levi sees this as a tough fight and prefers the dog price on Barcelos.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action has come in on both sides.
"I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take hyony."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Kyler Phillips

James thinks Barcelos is past his prime, citing recent wobbles and a knockout loss to someone with no KOs. He believes Phillips can knock him out and that the minus 200 line is about right. He also mentions Phillips could get takedowns to consolidate rounds.

Phillips by knockout
"I think Kyler Phillips is probably going to knock him out in this spot... I like him to get a finish actually."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Phillips has a style that gives Barcelos problems: he moves a lot, uses distance striking and kicks, and stays out of range. Barcelos has a better gas tank and could push into deep waters, but it will be too little too late. The fight is closer than the odds suggest, but Barcelos's time has passed and Phillips is a bad stylistic matchup. I'd rather pass on this matchup entirely.

"I'd rather just pass on this matchup as a whole"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Phillips' cardio issues and Barcelos' wrestling advantage. He mentions that Phillips has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Barcelos is the toughest opponent he has faced. He sees value in the plus money.

"I could never see myself pull the trigger on minus 210 for Kyler Phillips so clear dog or pass situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

The host picks Kyler Phillips, citing his youth (28), diverse striking, and BJJ. He notes Barcelos is 36, coming off a knockout loss, and has slowed defensively. He believes Phillips will land fight-impacting shots and can capitalize on Barcelos' diminished chin and slower movement. He thinks Phillips may get a finish but is confident in a decision win. He finds the -200 line a bit high but still picks Phillips.

line opened -178, now -200; suggests Phillips lands a big shot
"give me Kyler Phillips to get the job done here"
KO (body kick and punch) R1 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 1 36 of 51 70% 36 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raoni Barcelos 0 13 of 24 54% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 36 of 51 70% 36 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raoni Barcelos 0 13 of 24 54% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 36 of 51 70% 20 of 32 12 of 13 4 of 6 35 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 1
Raoni Barcelos 13 of 24 54% 6 of 17 5 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 36 of 51 70% 20 of 32 12 of 13 4 of 6 35 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 1
Raoni Barcelos 13 of 24 54% 6 of 17 5 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-610), Barcelos (+460)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with an important bantamweight tilt between an undefeated up-and-comer in Nurmagomedov (15-0, 3-0 UFC) and an aging but still dangerous Brazilian bomber Barcelos (17-3, 6-2 UFC), with a place in the top 15 on the line. The third man in the Octagon for this one is referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in despite no touch of gloves. The two are tentative to begin, with 30 seconds of inactivity before Barcelos springs into action with a big right hand. Nurmagomedov shoulder-rolls it and changes stances, and he kicks with both legs. Barcelos sits down on a head kick, and the blocked impact echoes through the UFC Apex. Nurmagomedov looks to curl a right hand round the guard, and he plants a side kick on the breadbasket. Barcelos cuts him off while Nurmagomedov kicks away, and the Brazilian advances slowly and has a body kick connect. Nurmagomedov paws out front kicks like jabs, with the two fighting at safe kickboxing range. Barcelos kicks high and then to the body, and Nurmagomedov answers with one to the ribs of his own. The Brazilian catches his man with a quick right hand, and he crashes forward with two looping shots. Nurmagomedov counters to back him off, and he fires off a head kick that gets blocked. Barcelos defends it and swings a hammer, and Nurmagomedov barely avoids it. When they come together, they clack heads, and Barcelos appears to ask him not to do this. Barcelos shrugs off a pair of front kicks so that he can loose a kick to the side, and he takes a flush jab on the way in. Nurmagomedov chips away with kicks from both legs, and a left hand stuns Barcelos momentarily. Barcelos gathers his wits and continues to advance, throwing so hard that he crashes into the wall and ricochets off it. Nurmagomedov resettles for a small bouquet of kicks as Barcelos advances again.
The Russian lifts his knee up and turns it into a body kick, and he unloads a left hand on the same side to completely separate Barcelos from his consciousness. The Brazilian falls lifelessly to the mat on his back, with the back of his head clattering on the floor, and Nurmagomedov gives chase to drop down one single destructive hammerfist.
Realizing that his opponent is astral traveling, Nurmagomedov pulls back from any further damage, and actually puts his hand on the top of Barcelos' head to check on him like a mother and her child. Herzog sees that this fight is over, and he pulls Nurmagomedov off of the dozing Barcelos. Nurmagomedov appears genuinely concerned for his fallen opponent, and he confirms this by apologizing for destroying him in the post-fight interview. For only the second time of his career, Nurmagomedov has knocked an opponent out, and he is now a flawless 16-0 as a pro.

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Raoni Barcelos R1 4:40 via KO (Body Kick and Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar but criticizes the -950 odds as absurd. He believes Umar's relentless wrestling will eventually get takedowns despite Barcelos' excellent takedown defense. He thinks Barcelos is more well-rounded and dangerous, but Umar's pressure wins a decision. He advises not betting at these odds.

"I think Umar wins this fight ... I do not think he's gonna look like a minus 950 doing it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently despite the steep odds, calling Barcelos 'not a bum' but noting signs of decline at 35. He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the toughest test Barcelos has faced, and that he can get the fight to the mat and control him. He expects Nurmagomedov to grind out a decision, as Barcelos has good submission defense and durability. He also notes that Nurmagomedov has competitive striking and flashy kicks, but the grappling advantage should be decisive.

Nurmagomedov by decision
"I'm gonna say normange gets this done I'll say bye decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar but acknowledges Barcelos' takedown defense and wrestling credentials. He thinks Umar will get takedowns and win a decision, and likes the 'Umar by decision' prop at -200. He also mentions Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar by decision at -200; Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I honestly think by decision um made of super talented don't get me wrong but he'll have to work a lot harder in this fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Connor picks Barcelos because he has excellent takedown defense (95% in the UFC) and is a good striker with power and speed. He notes that Nurmagomedov's wrestling may not be as effective against Barcelos, and that Nurmagomedov's striking lacks depth and consistency. Connor also points out that Barcelos has shown he can compete with wrestlers and that Nurmagomedov hasn't faced significant pushback. He acknowledges the coaching change for Nurmagomedov as a potential factor.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Connor thinks the odds are absurd and that Barcelos is a top-15 bantamweight.
"I'm going to pick Barcelos here because I have yet to see anybody succeed at all against him in the wrestling and it's not the wrestling that has me concerned."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Jacob picks Umar but calls the line disrespectful to Barcelos. He notes Barcelos' elite takedown defense and striking, but thinks Umar's chain wrestling will eventually win. He warns that if Umar's first takedown is stuffed, bettors should sweat. He has a separate bet on the fight for premium members.

Has a bet on the fight for premium members
"I think Umar wins but let's put some respect on honey man"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul is confident in Umar, calling him the future champion. He notes Umar's striking accuracy and wrestling pedigree, and believes he will win easily. He already parlayed Umar with Ige and Rębecki at -500. He also likes Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks; parlayed with Ige and Rębecki at +167
"umar's gonna win he's probably gonna make it look easy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov because he believes the wrestling will be a factor and that Barcelos has trouble creating pace when his opponent succeeds with volume. He notes that Nurmagomedov's variety and pace could overwhelm Barcelos, who struggles to match high output. Zane also points out that Barcelos has failed when his wrestling game isn't working, while Nurmagomedov hasn't been tested in that way. He acknowledges the risk but leans on the 'prove it' side.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Zane thinks the odds are absurd but still picks Nurmagomedov.
"I am going to settle on as I usually do the the prove it side where I'm just like I don't yet have any reason to think like the other thing here is that I wouldn't have picked a single …"
WIN vs Trevin Jones
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos 1 73 of 119 61% 119 of 171 2 of 5 40% 0 0 7:07
Trevin Jones 0 11 of 57 19% 15 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raoni Barcelos 0 14 of 23 60% 33 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:10
Trevin Jones 0 4 of 18 22% 5 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raoni Barcelos 1 24 of 40 60% 38 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:04
Trevin Jones 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Raoni Barcelos 0 35 of 56 62% 48 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:53
Trevin Jones 0 5 of 27 18% 7 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raoni Barcelos 73 of 119 61% 51 of 95 19 of 21 3 of 3 39 of 75 2 of 3 32 of 41
Trevin Jones 11 of 57 19% 5 of 47 3 of 7 3 of 3 11 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raoni Barcelos 14 of 23 60% 8 of 16 6 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 15 1 of 2 6 of 6
Trevin Jones 4 of 18 22% 1 of 12 0 of 3 3 of 3 4 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Raoni Barcelos 24 of 40 60% 18 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 0 14 of 21
Trevin Jones 2 of 12 16% 1 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Raoni Barcelos 35 of 56 62% 25 of 45 9 of 10 1 of 1 22 of 41 1 of 1 12 of 14
Trevin Jones 5 of 27 18% 3 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Trevin Jones

Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot features two men that could really use a win to turn things around. Both Barcelos (16-3, 5-2 UFC) and Jones (13-8, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) have lost two fights in a row, which means that one man’s losing streak will be coming to an end in the next 15 minutes. The bantamweights calmly walk forward without touching gloves in front of referee Keith Peterson, and there are no fans in the building nor is there any nonsense. It takes 20 seconds for either fighter to engage, with a head kick coming from the Brazilian to lead things off. Jones responds with a swinging punch, and Barcelos is quicker with a few short strikes. Jones kicks low, and the two feint and fake at one another until a front kick from Barcelos impacts on the body. Another head kick gets blocked by Jones, and Barcelos spams a third to end up hitting air. Barcelos charges in forward for a takedown, and Jones gets pushed into the wall but ultimately prevents himself from getting grounded. Barcelos releases him and resets, and he unloads a pounding kick to the ribcage. Jones looks for his own kick, and it goes on the outside of the Brazilian’s lead leg. Dueling front kicks come from the bantamweights, with Barcelos the one that lands. Jones chips at the lead calf with his shin, and he ducks into a crisp right hook. Barcelos lets a head kick fly, and Jones is able to block it in the nick of time. Jones comes out throwing haymakers, but Barcelos’ high guard defends against the strikes and allows him to clip Jones with a left. Barcelos moves to take things down, and as soon as they hit the mat, Jones scrambles and gets to his knees. Barcelos fishes for a choke with his right arm around the neck, but he lets it go to slug Jones in the face and lower Jones to the ground. Barcelos, in half guard, works the side with punches as he softens Jones up and tries to pass guard as the same time. The Brazilian succeeds in passing to full mount, and he presses his forearm on the throat in the form of an Ezekiel choke that makes Jones twist and buck to protect his neck. Barcelos sits up and slashes down with elbows, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 2
Like the previous round, the two are cautious to engage with much to start the second round. Jones waits with his left hand cocked back, while Barcelos jabs with a few kicks. When Jones reaches out with a right hand, Barcelos loops his own hook around the high guard and dings Jones cleanly. Barcelos swarms him with three punches, and he leaps in the air with a knee that bounces off Jones’ dome. Barcelos lands and pushes Jones back to the wire, but there is no takedown to be had, so he scores a right hand on the break. Jones backs away when a right bears down on him, but he is not keeping Barcelos honest with his own offense. Barcelos strings several kicks together to the leg and body, and a head kick follows suit. Barcelos unloads with a huge right hand from up close, and “5 Star” crumbles to the floor. Barcelos swarms him and arcs down some elbows, while Jones clings to his man so that he does not get pounded out. The Brazilian manages to land a few more elbows before standing up, and he leaps down to get in a better position. As Jones scrambles, he gives up his neck, and Barcelos grabs a guillotine choke. The submission is used to push Jones down to his knees, and he considers a rear-naked choke while hanging on from above. Jones turns around to protect his neck, and as he does, Barcelos rains down several elbows. Multiple unanswered right hands slam into the face of Jones, and the strikes have opened a cut up on the scalp of Jones. The Guam native throws his legs up for a high guard into a triangle, but Barcelos ignores it so that he can beat down Jones with vicious elbows. Before Barcelos can get the finish, Jones is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos

Round 3
Barcelos is amped up to start off the final frame, and he cuts Jones off and tags him with a left hand. Jones fires back with a kick, but Barcelos is able to intercept him with a huge right hook. Jones reels and gathers his thoughts to launch a broad uppercut, and the Brazilian shifts his head just enough to avoid the blow. Barcelos leaps forward into a left hand, and Jones tries to roll with it but still takes the brunt of it flush. Jones gets his bearings back and walks into a left hand, and he tries to connect with a right hand but gets cracked with a pair of punches that buckle his knees. Jones desperately shoots for a takedown, and the Brazilian stuffs it and pushes him back to the wall. A pair of powerful right hands to the body bend Jones over, but Jones otherwise defends the remainder of Barcelos’ assault until Barcelos backs off. Jones sticks a left high, and the two punches he fires off after whiz past Barcelos’ head. A loud right hand to the body forces Jones to double over again, and Barcelos lets him get his steam back. Barcelos counters a looping left hand with a knee up the middle, and it collides square into the cup. Peterson halts the action immediately, but Jones only needs 20 seconds to catch his breath before he signals he is good to go. When they resume, Barcelos shoots in for a takedown, and he lands in full mount position. Jones hand-fights to protect himself from the oncoming strikes, and when Barcelos breaks the grip, he settles for wrapping his arms around Barcelos’ waist. Barcelos postures up and delivers a little ground-and-pound, and he moves from side control to the other side as he rains down brutal elbows. The elbow barrage continues while Jones shifts and attempts to stand up, and Barcelos does everything he can to go home early. The stoppage does not materialize as Jones keeps moving enough to show he is still intelligently defending himself, and he reaches the final bell in what may be a moral victory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Trevin Jones via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Jones

Cody picks Trevin Jones by knockout, noting that Jones hits hard and Barcelos has been taking a lot of damage recently. He expects Barcelos to be winning the minutes until he gets caught. He is tempted by the +575 knockout prop but is not as confident as his Trinaldo bet. He suggests playing the moneyline instead of the prop to avoid a decision loss.

Jones by KO +575; may sprinkle on KO prop
"I'll pick Trevin Jones for the purposes of this show don't know if I'm gonna bet it not as confident as Grandpa t"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Paul picks Raoni Barcelos by unanimous decision, expecting him to outwork Trevin Jones with higher output, better footwork, and superior hand combinations. He acknowledges Barcelos has slowed down slightly but believes his technical boxing and well-rounded game will be enough to win rounds. He notes Jones has power but low volume, and Barcelos has never been knocked down, so a decision is likely.

"I'm taking another shot with round the thing is I normally play around you very high and now obviously I have to taper off my expectations"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, believing he is the more consistent and skilled fighter. He notes that Barcelos looks like his old self when allowed to fight at his own pace, and Trevin Jones lacks the volume and pressure to exploit Barcelos's cardio issues. He thinks Barcelos will win a clear decision, as Jones is sloppy and gets backed up easily. He includes Barcelos in his parlay and calls him a favorite double-up.

included in parlay with Castaneda and Brown
"I think Raoni wins a pretty clear-cut decision on this one."
Said Nurmagomedov - Fight History
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 13 of 20 65% 39 of 51 3 of 9 33% 0 1 9:44
Said Nurmagomedov 1 20 of 32 62% 100 of 126 0 of 0 --- 1 2 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 21 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:37
Said Nurmagomedov 1 17 of 25 68% 42 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 12 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:56
Said Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 5 20% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 11 0 of 3 0% 0 1 4:11
Said Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 2 100% 27 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 13 of 20 65% 3 of 6 7 of 11 3 of 3 5 of 11 8 of 9 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 20 of 32 62% 13 of 24 5 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 19 1 of 3 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 2 of 3 5 of 8 3 of 3 5 of 9 5 of 5 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 17 of 25 68% 11 of 19 4 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 9
2 Bryce Mitchell 3 of 5 60% 1 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-125); Nurmagomedov (+105)

Round 1
Hoping the answer to his problems is a change in weight, the much-maligned Mitchell (17-3, 8-3 UFC) is shifting gears to 135 pounds in hopes of a new lease on life. He will not receive an easy challenge in the division that many suggest is the best in the sport, as he tangles with Nurmagomedov (18-4, 7-3 UFC). While of a different mold than many of the other men that share his name, this Russian presents danger on the feet as well as on the mat. Referee Jim Perdios will keep things on the up-and-up. There is no fist bump between the bantamweights.
Although Nurmagomedov offers, Mitchell ignores it and kicks him in the lead knee. When Mitchell kicks a second time, Nurmagomedov counters with one upside the head that lands cleanly. Nurmagomedov bounces off the wall to plant a left hand on the chin, circling on the outside and waiting for Mitchell to throw so he can counter with an overhand right. Mitchell ties up the Dagestan native with a body lock, and Nurmagomedov is able to bounce off his knees when they both hit the floor together. Mitchell remains tightly pressed to his opponent, kneeing him once in the stomach while he otherwise hangs on closely. Mitchell stalls out in this position other than offering the occasional knee, and fans loudly ask for the fighters to be split up.
Nurmagomedov takes matters into his own hands, breaking free and cracking Mitchell with a right hand. Mitchell has some swelling on his left cheek and a cut under his right eye, but it is a knee that blasts into his chin that does the real damage. Mitchell goes flying to his back, and Nurmagomedov slashes through his guard to drop down punctuating punches and devastating elbows. Mitchell tries to throw his legs up for a submission setup like a triangle choke, and Nurmagomedov is wise to it as he keeps working on Mitchells side. Mitchell wraps his right leg up and around the shoulder for a moment, but his omoplata shoulder lock setup falls apart before he can get anywhere. Mitchell defends himself well while on his back, staying active to dissuade Nurmagomedov from getting reckless. Nurmagomedov hammers down a single elbow before Mitchell explodes to his feet, where the American hunts for a body lock takedown of his own. He bullies Nurmagomedov to the wall, holding him there until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
Mitchell rushes out of his corner to engage and start the second round, where it takes him less than 10 seconds to shoot for a takedown. Nurmagomedov defends with a guillotine choke, and Mitchell elevates him and trips him out to break out of the choke and establish top position. When Mitchell lands on top, he isolates Nurmagomedov’s left arm in search of a kimura. Mitchell hangs on as it could also turn into a straight armlock by the way he has the limb stretched, but Nurmagomedov does not appear remotely concerned as he knees Mitchell in the ribs while stuck flat on his back. Mitchell stays holding onto the limb, but he does not have it with both hands so Nurmagomedov raises his hand up to motion to Perdios that he should stand them up. Perdios does not take the bait, and Mitchell releases the grip and pursues an arm-triangle choke.
Nurmagomedov manages to wall-walk to not only get out of the sub but also reverse his position, and Mitchell is able to stand up as well while they are clinched. Mitchell digs a few shots to the body when exerting his weight on the Russian, and he sells out for a single and even rolls over to try to take Nurmagomedov’s back. Nurmagomedov turns to try to escape the back take, and slowly flips Mitchell over to get on top with 45 seconds left in the round. Nurmagomedov quickly advances to the side, and when he tries to take a dominant position. Mitchell uses the moment to fight to his feet and just avoids a knee. Nurmagomedov spins with a back elbow, and Mitchell times a picture-perfect double that puts Nurmagomedov on his back. Nurmagomedov looks to Perdios, who lets time expire as they are tied up in their position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 3
Mitchell kicks off the final round looks for a takedown. After a few efforts, he wrangles Nurmagomedov to put his back to the wall, but this is just a trap the Russian has set. Nurmagomedov latches onto a guillotine choke, and he uses it to flip Mitchell to his back and take full mount. Nurmagomedov is unable to complete it, so he lets it go and starts dropping down left hands. Mitchell scrambles to his knees, and Nurmagomedov takes his back and gets a hook in. Mitchell keeps turning to defy the back take and puts the Russian flat on his back once more. Mitchell smothers his opponent, not otherwise attacking in terms of strikes or submissions, so that he can remain on top.
Mitchell holds on with an arm-triangle choke from the opposite side, and Nurmagomedov settles for kneeing him in the side a few times to little effect. Nurmagomedov is warned for putting his toes in the fence to pull himself to a more advantageous position. Nurmagomedov grabs the fence again with his fingers, and Perdios swats his hand and then foot out of the links. Nurmagomedov turns to surrender his back in an effort to stand, but Mitchell is on him like a dog with a bone and he wraps up a body triangle around the Dagestan native’s waist. Mitchell hangs on, and Nurmagomedov has his toes still hooked in the fence as Perdios has to smack his toes again to pull them out of it. They turn to an awkward position, and this 135-pound affair draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Said Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but with very low confidence (50.5%). He notes Mitchell's dominant wrestling and submission threat, but worries about his move to 135 lbs and his chin. Said Nurmagomedov has questionable takedown defense but a dangerous guillotine. Angelo will monitor the line and may flip his pick.

"I'm going to pick Bryce because of what I think is going to be a pretty healthy wrestling advantage. But I'm definitely going to keep an eye on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, favoring his striking and submission threats. He worries about Bryce Mitchell's tendency to put his neck in bad spots when shooting takedowns, and notes Nurmagomedov has nasty front chokes. He believes Mitchell will struggle to hold Nurmagomedov down and predicts a second-round submission via front choke.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Nurmagamedov to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jul 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Said Nurmagomedov but admits he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Mitchell's drop to 135 feels desperate and that Said is a sharp striker with good wrestling, but also acknowledges that Said has a problem with gassing and Mitchell could pressure him. Connor's pick is more a vote against Mitchell's recent trajectory than a strong endorsement of Said.

"For the sake of the person in my live thread, I will pick Said, but I won't lie. I don't actually feel good about it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Many think Mitchell should grind out Nurmagomedov, but it only takes one mistake for Mitchell to lead to Nurmagomedov snatching up the neck and forcing the tap.

submission
"I think it only takes one mistake for Mitchell to lead to Nurmagomedov eventually snatching up the neck and forcing the tap for Mitchell."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his size and strength advantage at bantamweight, and his ability to grapple tall to avoid guillotines. He notes Said Nurmagomedov's guillotine threat but believes Mitchell's physicality and grappling control will be the difference. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Mitchell.

"I'm going to go with Bryce Mitchell. ... I'm actually going to say that he gets this one done by decision. ... 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Zane picks Bryce Mitchell despite his recent losses, arguing that Said Nurmagomedov has a history of gassing and Mitchell's pressure and size could be decisive. He acknowledges the risk of Mitchell's weight cut to 135 and his recent confidence issues, but believes Mitchell's grappling and toughness give him a real chance against a fighter like Said who has struggled against persistent opponents.

"I really don't want to, but I think I'm going to pick Bryce Mitchell."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 38 of 79 48% 69 of 111 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:58
Vinicius Oliveira 0 43 of 94 45% 68 of 125 3 of 5 60% 1 0 7:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 28 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Vinicius Oliveira 0 3 of 14 21% 5 of 16 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:44
2 Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 38 34% 21 of 46 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:49
Vinicius Oliveira 0 21 of 45 46% 26 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
3 Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 20 65% 20 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Oliveira 0 19 of 35 54% 37 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 38 of 79 48% 18 of 54 13 of 17 7 of 8 37 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
Vinicius Oliveira 43 of 94 45% 24 of 63 11 of 18 8 of 13 31 of 74 2 of 5 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 6 of 14 2 of 3 4 of 4 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vinicius Oliveira 3 of 14 21% 2 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 3 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 38 34% 3 of 25 7 of 9 3 of 4 13 of 36 0 of 2 0 of 0
Vinicius Oliveira 21 of 45 46% 8 of 25 7 of 13 6 of 7 19 of 40 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 20 65% 9 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinicius Oliveira 19 of 35 54% 14 of 29 3 of 3 2 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 0 10 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Round 1
They move the line forward in the 135-pound weight class, as Nurmagomedov (18-3, 7-2 UFC) and Oliveira (21-3, 2-0 UFC) meet in a pivotal bantamweight attraction. Hatley officiates. Oliveira steps forward, eats a leg kick and uncorks a left hook. Nurmagomedov stays light on his feet and sends a kick glancing off the Brazilian’s forehead. A spinning back kick to the body sends Oliveira to the canvas. He gets to his feet, only to absorb a stout low kick. Nurmagomedov threatens a guillotine in a scramble, then separates. Another powerful low leg kick from the Russian. Oliveira ducks a spinning backfist. Nurmagomedov briefly secures a takedown, but Oliveira gets back to his feet and drives forward in the clinch. Midway through the round. Oliveira scores with knees to the legs. Inadvertent eye poke from the Brazilian results in a pause. Hatley restarts it. Slapping head kick lands from Nurmagomedov. Chopping overhand right from Nurmagomedov misses and an accidental head butt knocks Oliveira off-balance. He gets back to his feet, eats a flying knee and manages to score a takedown. Oliveira navigates the guard and scores with ground-and-pound. Nurmagomedov gets back to his feet. The round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmegomedov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
Oliveira steps forward, and they trade body kicks. Nurmagomedov throw a kick high, only to get blocked. Leg kick from the Russian, who ducks in, shoot on the hips and hunts a takedown. Oliveira denies his efforts. A clinch battle ensues. Knee up the middle on the break from Nurmagomedov. Oliveira presses the issue behind punches and executes a takedown. Nurmagomedov gets back to his feet without much issues and gets his kicks in gear in the center of the cage. Right hand over the top from the Russian draws a thumbs up from Oliveira. Nurmagomedov complains about an eye poke, leaves his guard down and eats a few punches for his troubles. He circles behind Oliveira, resets and secures a brief takedown. Output an issue for Nurmagomedov, who appears to be tiring. Oliveira moves forward behind punches from both hands and lands a glancing uppercut, then misses on a wild spinning backfist. Weary punches from both men to end the frame.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 3
Anyone’s fight with five minutes to go. Oliveira presses forward behind a body kick and punches. Nurmagomedov slips throwing a kick. Oliveira dives in top position and works in full guard. He scores with short punches. Nurmagomedov scrambles from underneath. Oliveira draws a warning for grabbing the cage and another for strikes to the back of the head. He powers into half guard and briefly achieves full mount. Nurmagomedov escapes and snatches a single-leg. Oliveira sprawls and circles, then locks in a brabo choke. He bails and throws elbows instead. Ninety seconds left. Oliveira connects with a knee to the body on the kneeling Nurmagomedov. The momentum has certainly shifted. Nurmagomedov gets back to his feet but looks gassed. His movements are woefully labored. Oliveira doubles up on right hooks and connects with a side kick to the body. Nurmagomedov scores with a spinning backfist, but his opponent appears unmoved. Oliveira sprawls on a takedown attempt from the Russian and wheels behind him with 30 seconds remaining. Nurmagomedov clings to a single-leg but has neither the energy nor wherewithal to do anything with it.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)

The Official Result
Vinicius Oliveira def. Said Nurmagomedov—Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, noting his length, durability, and creativity. He believes Oliveira's chaotic style and takedown defense (defended 9 takedowns against Ricky Simon) will trouble Said Nurmagomedov. He worries that Oliveira's recklessness could lead to a submission, but thinks his aggression and power will be enough.

"I'm picking venicius here I picked him a few weeks ago when he was a plus 225 underdog now he's a plus 145 Underdog"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is impressed with Said Nurmagomedov's striking and submission game. He thinks Vinicius Oliveira is hitable and has been finished in all his losses. Brady predicts Nurmagomedov will catch Oliveira with a spinning attack or submit him, possibly via a club-and-sub. He calls Nurmagomedov a finisher and expects a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I like nag medov here I'll say he wins by I'll say I'll say submission maybe like a club and sub for nag mov here I I'll say nagan mov second round sub"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Nurmagomedov, believing his well-rounded game and wrestling will overcome Oliveira's wild aggression. He notes that Oliveira is a formless bully who cuts a lot of weight, but Nurmagomedov has the tools to neutralize him and find submissions. However, he acknowledges that Oliveira's chaotic style could make the fight uncomfortable and that Nurmagomedov has struggled with physical pressure in the past.

"I still think he's so good and so well-rounded. He should just have free opportunities to hit all of it. Yeah. And should be able to. And the wrestling. Get to yeah, take him down, get him in a position …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

James picks Oliveira to win, citing Nurmagomedov's poor cardio and tendency to gas out, as seen in recent fights. He believes Oliveira's pressure, size, and strength will overwhelm Nurmagomedov in later rounds. He notes Nurmagomedov's submission threat (ninja choke) but thinks Oliveira can survive and win by decision or late knockout. He sees Oliveira's trajectory rising while Nurmagomedov's is declining.

Oliveira by decision is implied; mentions knockout upside.
"I'm going to side with Olivier on this one I really am I think Venus is going to win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Oliveira's output and volume will cause Nurmagomedov trouble, as Nurmagomedov is more reliant on finishes. If he can't get Oliveira out of there early, he will struggle with the volume coming back. Oliveira is expected to win on the scorecards.

"I believe the output and volume of Oliveira will cause Nurmagomedov a lot of trouble... look for Oliveira to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov in a close fight. He notes Oliveira is rangy and well-rounded, but Nurmagomedov has finishing potential and experience. He worries about Nurmagomedov's performance against Jonathan Martinez but believes he can win the first two rounds and edge a decision. He mentions Oliveira's short-notice loss to Bernardo Sopaj as a factor.

"I'll go say n medov over Venicia oliv you know... I'm G to go sayov over visha Oliva"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, agreeing that his technical edge and wrestling should prevail. He notes that Oliveira's lack of defense and tendency to scramble hard will give Nurmagomedov opportunities. However, Zane warns that Oliveira's size and pace could cause problems, and that Nurmagomedov has a history of slowing down under physical pressure. He still sees Nurmagomedov as the rightful favorite.

"I still think he's so good and so well-rounded. He should just have free opportunities to hit all of it. Yeah. And should be able to. And the wrestling. Get to yeah, take him down, get him in a position …"
WIN vs Muin Gafurov
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:13 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Muin Gafurov 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Muin Gafurov 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Muin Gafurov 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Muin Gafurov 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov but fades the bet. He notes Gafurov's wrestling could be a problem, as seen when Kakhramonov dominated Said with takedowns. However, he thinks Gafurov might get sucked into a brawl, where Said's striking will prevail. He is wary of the clear path to beat Said via wrestling.

fade the bet
"s marov is going to be the pick here but again this is another fight that could just be sort of a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov to win by second round submission. He notes that Gafurov is reckless, gets hurt often, and has a questionable chin, while Nurmagomedov has power and a dangerous guillotine. Brady expects Nurmagomedov to hurt Gafurov on the feet, then snatch a submission when Gafurov shoots for a takedown.

second round submission
"see meide her magedov to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his well-rounded skills and ability to mix striking with wrestling. He notes that Gafurov gasses out and has been out-struck by lesser opponents, while Nurmagomedov has better speed, volume, and wrestling. Cody expects Nurmagomedov to drown Gafurov in deeper waters and win a decision or late finish.

"I like Said quite a bit so again here's no actual relation to Khabib Nurmagomedov but he's rocking that last name and he's trying to do them proud"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Said Nurmagomedov to win, citing his length, explosiveness, and dynamic kicking style. He notes that Nurmagomedov has a gas tank issue due to his explosive style but believes he is on a different level than Gafurov. He respects Gafurov's heart and well-roundedness but thinks the athleticism and size disparity will be too much. He expects Nurmagomedov to win a decision but says Gafurov could raise his stock in defeat.

Nurmagomedov minus 205, Gafurov plus 175; mentions possibility of decision
"My pick is s Nago medov um I think the length the explosiveness is going to be a little bit too much for gaffo."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Nurmagomedov lacks output and assertiveness, relying on spectacular finishes. Gafurov has good forward movement, volume, and a wrestling game. He can set the pace and manage his gas tank better. As long as Gafurov doesn't get caught in a choke or knocked out, he can win by decision. He is a solid underdog spot.

"I think he could be a solid Underdog spot here against Nar goov"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Nurmagomedov, citing his diverse striking, high fight IQ, and ability to adapt. He notes that Gafurov has poor cardio and has struggled against lower-level competition, while Nurmagomedov has shown he can compete with top bantamweights. Paul expects Nurmagomedov to use his speed and wrestling to outwork Gafurov, likely winning a decision.

Said by decision (+230)
"I think Said by decision is how I would approach this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru calls this a mismatch and picks Said Nurmagomedov. He notes that Gafurov lost to John Castaneda and Chad Anheliger, while Nurmagomedov had a close fight with Jonathan Martinez, who is very good. He believes Nurmagomedov is top-15 level and has higher finishing potential.

"I think this is an absolute mismatch I don't know why they've done this one"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 47 of 78 60% 101 of 134 3 of 9 33% 2 0 4:21
Said Nurmagomedov 0 38 of 55 69% 78 of 96 0 of 1 0% 1 0 6:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 21 of 35 60% 34 of 48 1 of 3 33% 2 0 0:59
Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 21 61% 17 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 16 of 25 64% 28 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Said Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 22 68% 26 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 10 of 18 55% 39 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Said Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 12 83% 35 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 47 of 78 60% 25 of 50 14 of 19 8 of 9 31 of 57 12 of 14 4 of 7
Said Nurmagomedov 38 of 55 69% 13 of 25 7 of 8 18 of 22 22 of 37 13 of 15 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 21 of 35 60% 8 of 19 8 of 10 5 of 6 14 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 21 61% 4 of 9 4 of 5 5 of 7 8 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 16 of 25 64% 9 of 16 5 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 19 5 of 5 1 of 1
Said Nurmagomedov 15 of 22 68% 6 of 11 1 of 1 8 of 10 8 of 14 4 of 5 3 of 3
3 Jonathan Martinez 10 of 18 55% 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 6
Said Nurmagomedov 10 of 12 83% 3 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov as the better pure striker, noting his versatility and ability to find ways to win. He acknowledges that Martinez has wrestling and can take Said down, but believes Said's striking advantage and proven ability to snatch submissions make him the pick. He thinks the fight is closer than the -200 odds suggest.

"DeMarco Madoff is going to be the pick because I think he's the better overall Striker and he has proven to us time and time again that he can just find ways to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez as a pretty big dog, questioning why Nurmagomedov is such a heavy favorite. He notes Nurmagomedov has only completed two takedowns in the UFC and doesn't wrestle like his last name suggests. Brady likes Martinez's volume and kicks, expects a close fight, and predicts a split decision win for Martinez.

win by split decision
"give me Martinez to pull off the upset I think it's to be a close fight though but these odds aren't indicating that this fight is going to be close at all"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody also picks Martinez, echoing Paul's thoughts on the inflated line. He highlights Martinez's volume and kicking game, and doubts Nurmagomedov's ability to finish. He thinks Martinez can win a decision and likes the plus money.

Martinez by decision +375
"I'm gonna back Jonathan Martinez here because I see a lot of the same things that you do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing his improved pressure and commitment to kicking. He notes that Martinez has worked on his retreats and angles, and that Nurmagomedov makes poor decisions with flashy techniques. Connor believes Martinez's meat-and-potatoes kickboxing will be effective, and that Nurmagomedov's tendency to retreat and spin will leave him open. He acknowledges it's a close fight but favors Martinez's discipline.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm kind of leaning Martinez here just cause I think he's a little more committed to pressuring and in fact, notably more committed to pressuring. ... Martinez is just very meat and potatoes with his kickboxing combinations, hard, low kicks, …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

I like Martinez as the underdog here. His kick-heavy style and volume should keep Nurmagomedov at range. Nurmagomedov's low output and tendency to have close fights could be his downfall. However, I have a bad feeling that Nurmagomedov might catch Martinez with something. I think Martinez wins by decision, but I'm not fully confident.

"I like him in this spot I like him as the underdog I just have this bad feeling in the back of my head that normaga Madoff is going to end up catching him in something"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez as an underdog, believing the line is inflated due to Nurmagomedov's name. He notes Martinez's diverse kicking game, volume, and recent win over Cub Swanson. He thinks Nurmagomedov's striking is overrated and that Martinez can outwork him over three rounds.

Martinez by decision +375
"I will take some Underdog action there on Jamar"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, trusting his grappling and tricky footwork. He notes that Martinez relies on kicks, and Nurmagomedov's movement will evade them. He believes Nurmagomedov has more options to win, including finishing potential, and will take a decision.

by decision
"I'm going to trust him to win this one Jonathan Martinez relies on his kicks a lot if Say Moves Like A guy who's good at evading kicks with his footwork and his movement very high movement guy not stationary …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, citing his speed and dynamic striking. He notes that both fighters have similar flaws but Nurmagomedov is faster and more confident. Zane believes that in a long-range kickboxing match, Nurmagomedov's athleticism and trickier attacks will give him the edge. He acknowledges Martinez's improvements but thinks Nurmagomedov's confidence and speed are decisive.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm going to take Nurmagomedov. I think for me, this is just one of those points where two guys are going to come out doing a lot of the same thing and one's a little faster and a little trickier …"
Submission (ninja choke) R2 3:50 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 18 38% 21 of 34 0 of 2 0% 3 0 0:25
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 0 11 of 30 36% 32 of 65 5 of 12 41% 1 0 7:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 3 of 12 25% 13 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:09
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 0 7 of 15 46% 17 of 27 2 of 6 33% 1 0 4:29
2 Said Nurmagomedov 0 4 of 6 66% 8 of 10 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:16
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 0 4 of 15 26% 15 of 38 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 7 of 18 38% 3 of 12 3 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 12 4 of 6 0 of 0
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 11 of 30 36% 8 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 1 6 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 3 of 12 25% 0 of 7 3 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 7 of 15 46% 4 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 6
2 Said Nurmagomedov 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 13
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Angelo picks Kakhramonov, hoping he brings the same wrestling pace as in his last fight against Ronnie Lawrence, where he had 10 takedowns and 12 minutes of control. He notes that Said Nurmagomedov is not a wrestler despite his last name, but a flashy striker with only two takedowns in the UFC. He expects Kakhramonov to bully Said.

"I like hakramanov in this fight I hope that he has that same energy here that same wrestling Pace here that he did against Ronnie"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Big Brady picks Kakhramonov as an underdog, impressed by his wins over Ronnie Lawrence (taking him down 10 times) and Trevin Jones (submission). He thinks Kakhramonov is a different level and can pass this test against Nurmagomedov, who he's never been high on. He expects a close, competitive fight but picks Kakhramonov by decision.

Kakhramonov wins by decision
"I like Cocker Mana the dude's only 27 years old I don't think it's going to be an easy fight by any means... I'm gonna take cockerman after to win this fight I'm gonna take him to Win It by …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Cody picks Kakhramonov, noting his size and strength advantage. He thinks Kakhramonov will get takedowns and control the fight. He was impressed by his performance against Ronnie Lawrence where he ragdolled him. He expects a decision win for Kakhramonov.

Kakhramonov by decision
"I gotta say kakramona of a cracker modified decision that's what I'm gonna go with"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Nurmagomedov but is hesitant, calling it a trap fight. He thinks Nurmagomedov can find enough moments to land big and take advantage of Kakhramonov's wild entries. However, he notes Kakhramonov is a dogged technical wrestler who could steal momentum.

"I'm gonna pick Nurmagomedov still but you know this has the feeling of a trap"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Kakhramonov is relentless with takedowns and has better technical wrestling than Nurmagomedov's previous opponents. Nurmagomedov has the striking advantage but doesn't give himself many chances to win outside of a finish. Lesser wrestlers have had grappling success against Nurmagomedov, and Kakhramonov will grind out a win.

2 units at -107
"the guy moves forward the guy Relentless with his takedown she was the better technical wrestler that night and had likely the cardio Advantage which is why I think that he came out on top"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Paul picks Kakhramonov, agreeing with Cody. He was surprised by his performance against Lawrence and thinks he is a real prospect. He notes Kakhramonov has good wrestling and size. He expects a decision but acknowledges judging could be an issue.

"I'm with you I got cockramanum I got cockerman of by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

The MMA Guru picks Saidyokub Kakhramonov over Said Nurmagomedov, going against the majority. He questions Nurmagomedov's cardio, noting he slowed down against Douglas Silva de Andrade and Kyler Phillips. He praises Kakhramonov's pace and wrestling, citing his 10 takedowns against Ronnie Lawrence. He believes Kakhramonov will drown Nurmagomedov as the fight goes on and get an upset 29-28 decision. He also notes Kakhramonov is younger at 27 and still improving, while Nurmagomedov is 30 and may be at his peak.

"I'm going inside Jacob kakaramanov here younger I believe more dangerous"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov but is leaning, noting it's a wide open fight. He thinks Nurmagomedov can win rounds with single moments and kick Kakhramonov's legs. However, he acknowledges Kakhramonov's wrestling could be a problem and that Nurmagomedov's striking is pot-shotty.

"I think Nurmagomedov can find enough moments to land big can take enough advantage of the wildness"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 28 of 74 37% 44 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 42 of 97 43% 77 of 150 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 8 of 22 36% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 9 of 30 30% 24 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 32 40% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Said Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 20 35% 20 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 12 of 26 46% 29 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 28 of 74 37% 4 of 34 11 of 19 13 of 21 24 of 66 2 of 3 2 of 5
Douglas Silva de Andrade 42 of 97 43% 21 of 69 12 of 18 9 of 10 39 of 89 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 8 of 22 36% 0 of 9 2 of 3 6 of 10 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 9 of 30 30% 4 of 22 2 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 28 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 32 40% 3 of 16 4 of 8 6 of 8 12 of 30 0 of 0 1 of 2
Douglas Silva de Andrade 21 of 41 51% 11 of 30 7 of 8 3 of 3 19 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Said Nurmagomedov 7 of 20 35% 1 of 9 5 of 8 1 of 3 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 3
Douglas Silva de Andrade 12 of 26 46% 6 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his cleaner and more versatile striking technique and solid defense. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade has more power but a negative striking differential. He believes Nurmagomedov's pace and striking defense will allow him to outpoint Silva de Andrade, though he must avoid the power. He sees this as a striker vs striker matchup.

"I like said to win here because he sets a nice pace and not only has the striking offense but the defense as well."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, praising his flashy striking, defensive soundness, and youth. He notes that Nurmagomedov is hard to hit and has a well-rounded game with wrestling in his back pocket. He believes Silva de Andrade, despite his power and toughness, will struggle with Nurmagomedov's movement and volume. Brady predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, though he acknowledges a finish is possible.

"i really like nurmagomedov in this fight and i like him to win it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Cody thinks Said's superior speed, footwork, and lateral movement will be key against the shorter, stockier de Andrade. He believes Said can stay at distance and chip away, and has multiple paths to victory including a finish. He acknowledges de Andrade's durability and toughness but sees Said as the safer play.

Mentions over 2.5 rounds at +100 as a possible play.
"i think he's got a safe route to uh to a decision might be able to finish someone inside the distance and for that reason yeah yeah i've got to have some confidence in them"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not make a pick on the winner of this fight. He only bets on the under 2.5 rounds prop, which is his lock of the night play. He expects a finish regardless of who wins, likely from Nurmagomedov within the first two rounds. He does not pick a side on the moneyline.

Lock of the night: 4 units on under 2.5 rounds at -125. Expects Nurmagomedov to win quickly.
"the normaga Madoff and Dion draws under two and a half I have four units on minus 125 which makes it my luck of the Night play I'm quite confident that no matter which side wins this will they will …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn on this fight. He loves de Andrade as a dog but thinks the price is too wide. He calls it a dogger pass situation, noting that de Andrade has shown heart and durability but Said is very skilled. He doesn't commit to a pick.

"me i'm kind of staring as like a dogger pass but i wanted to hear what you had to say is there is there any merit to it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, noting his range and body kicks will trouble the shorter de Andrade. He predicts a submission (guillotine) in the second round, possibly after hurting de Andrade to the body. He mentions de Andrade's age (37) as a factor.

submission (guillotine) in the second round
"I'm going to go with Said Nurmagomedov getting this one done."
WIN vs Cody Stamann
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:47 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Cody Stamann 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Cody Stamann 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 7 of 13 53% 4 of 9 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 7 of 13 53% 4 of 9 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Angelo picks Cody Stamann, expecting his pace and takedowns to frustrate a ring-rusty Nurmagomedov. He compares it to Barcelos vs Nurmagomedov where Barcelos won a decision. He admits it's not a confident pick but likes Cody in that matchup.

"i like cody here cody's the pick it's not like a tent pole underdog pick where i'm a thousand percent sure but i do like cody in that match up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov to win by decision, citing his striking advantage, volume, defense, and significant reach and height advantages. He notes that Stamann's path to victory is takedowns, but Stamann struggles to control opponents and Nurmagomedov has good takedown defense and scrambling. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Nurmagomedov will outpoint Stamann.

Nurmagomedov by decision; mentions the fight will be closer than the line indicates
"give me your margaret off i do think the fight is going to be closer than the line does indicate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Cody picks Cody Stamann as a live underdog, arguing that the line is off because people assume Nurmagomedov has grappling like other Nurmagomedovs, but Said is primarily a striker. He notes that Said has been taken down before (e.g., by Bibilatov) and that Stamann has good wrestling and game plans. Cody believes Stamann will use takedowns and top control to win a decision, and likes the plus money.

Cody Stamann by decision +260
"I think Cody Stamann's a live dog here... the line's way off and Cody Stamann definitely has the potential to win based on the grappling."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Daniel Levi leans toward Said Nurmagomedov but is not confident enough to lay the -200 price. He notes Nurmagomedov's explosive striking and six-inch reach advantage, but acknowledges Stamann's wrestling and ability to make fights close. Levi thinks Stamann can be competitive with anyone and that the fight could be a split decision. He ultimately gives a slight edge to Nurmagomedov due to his flashy striking and crowd-pleasing style.

Fight goes to decision; close fight expected
"i kind of think that syed's slightly better so i'm going to lean him but i'm not trying to lay that that big chalk price here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

The host believes the line is inflated due to the 'Russian tax' on Nurmagomedov. He argues that Stamann has the wrestling advantage and will be able to take Nurmagomedov down, especially in later rounds. He notes that Nurmagomedov prefers to strike from range, but Stamann can crash the pocket and use his wrestling. He expects Stamann to win a decision by out-grappling and out-working Nurmagomedov.

Stamann by decision
"i think cody stamen wins this fight on optics and takedowns and i think that the judges gave it to him so uh official prediction here is going to be cody steeman pulling off the upset via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Stamann as a live dog. He notes that Said's wrestling hasn't been tested at UFC level and that Stamann is a bigger bantamweight who has fought tough competition. Paul believes Stamann's wrestling and game planning will expose Said's defensive weaknesses. He also mentions that Stamann has scored takedowns in his last four fights.

"I think the line's way off and Cody Stamann definitely has the potential to win based on the grappling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his youth, improvements, and recent first-round KO of Mark Striegl. He believes Nurmagomedov can stuff takedowns and outwork Stamann, predicting a second-round spinning back kick to the body TKO. He notes Stamann's recent losses and crying incident as signs of decline.

second round spinning back kick to the body
"i'm actually going to call a second round spinning back kick to the body for saying now mkhmed off here"
WIN vs Mark Striegl
KO (punches) R1 0:51 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Mark Striegl 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Mark Striegl 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 18 of 24 75% 17 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 7 4 of 4 11 of 13
Mark Striegl 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 18 of 24 75% 17 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 7 4 of 4 11 of 13
Mark Striegl 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov because he is the better striker and has solid defensive grappling, never having been submitted. He believes Striegl's path to victory is a submission, but Nurmagomedov's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet make him confident. He notes the line is wide but sees it as an okay parlay piece.

parlay piece
"i'm going to go with the better striker here i think it'll primarily play out on the feet maybe strickle gets a takedown um but i'm confident nirmagameto is able to you know fight off those submission attempts or even …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov because he has faced much higher level competition than Mark Striegl, who has a questionable record with many losses. He notes that Nurmagomedov's close fight with Hani Barcelos shows his skill, and that Striegl is older and past his prime. He expects a unanimous decision win.

"i think i'm going to go with saying namadov just because i don't think mark striegel's fought the level of competition that sayed has throughout his career"