Career Averages - Ovince Saint Preux
Career Averages - Marcos Rogério de Lima
Ovince Saint Preux - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 7 of 10 | 70% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 7 of 10 | 70% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ryan Spann, citing his youth, danger, and finishing ability. He notes Ovince Saint Preux is older and hesitant. However, he is not betting on this fight due to the short notice and elevation, which could lead to a staring contest. He thinks the under 1.5 rounds line is tempting but unreliable.
Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to win by first-round knockout, acknowledging that Spann is dangerous early but fades if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that OSP is 41 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins, so Spann's power should be enough. He understands why people are betting OSP but trusts Spann's first-round finishing ability.
Cody picks OSP, citing Spann's cardio issues and tendency to quit. He thinks OSP's durability and experience at altitude will allow him to outlast Spann. He expects a late finish or decision.
Connor picks Spann, arguing that OSP's recent wins have come against smaller or slower opponents, while Spann is neither. Spann is fast and huge, and OSP's age and decline make him a poor bet. He notes that Spann's losses are bad, but he has the physical tools to beat OSP.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Ovince Saint Preux, citing his unorthodox style and veteran tactics. He notes that Ryan Spann is a talented flake with a weak chin and poor decision-making. Vreeland points out that OSP has beaten other Forest MMA fighters and had a career-high output in his last fight. He expects OSP to win if he survives the early rounds.
The host believes Ovince Saint Preux will avoid the early finishing power of Ryan Spann and then chip away at him in the second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards. He notes that the moneyline is very juicy at the current price, indicating value.
Paul picks OSP but with less confidence than before. He notes the altitude and Spann's cardio problems. He thinks OSP can find a finish or win a decision if he conserves energy.
The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann to KO Ovince Saint Preux, despite acknowledging Spann's poor decision-making. He believes Spann's explosive power and size will be too much for the 41-year-old OSP, who he considers finished. He expects Spann to land a brutal knockout on the early prelims, as OSP is unlikely to get takedowns and the fight will stay standing.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that OSP's recent wins are unimpressive and Spann has the size and speed advantage. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but believes he will win this matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 143 of 276 | 51% | 143 of 276 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 106 of 250 | 42% | 106 of 250 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 44 of 79 | 55% | 44 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 29 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 73 of 140 | 52% | 73 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 55 of 113 | 48% | 55 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 143 of 276 | 51% | 98 of 223 | 32 of 39 | 13 of 14 | 131 of 262 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 106 of 250 | 42% | 85 of 213 | 19 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 93 of 235 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 26 of 57 | 45% | 10 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 22 of 57 | 38% | 14 of 37 | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 44 of 79 | 55% | 30 of 62 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 44 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 29 of 80 | 36% | 25 of 73 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 73 of 140 | 52% | 58 of 123 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 61 of 126 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 55 of 113 | 48% | 46 of 103 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 43 of 99 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo calls this his most confident pick on the card. Nzechukwu is long, powerful, has solid takedown defense, and is never out of a fight, though he can be gun-shy. Saint Preux is 40, has no chin, and is frustratingly low-volume, rarely letting his hands go. Angelo sees no path to victory for Saint Preux outside a Hail Mary bomb, which is unlikely given his low output. He thinks Nzechukwu will win easily.
Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win by first-round knockout. He believes OSP is past his prime and not motivated, while Nzechukwu is a big favorite for a reason. He expects a quick finish despite Nzechukwu's history of weird outcomes.
Cody is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, believing OSP is completely washed and on his way out. He details OSP's decline: missing weight, looking flat, and being knocked out in recent fights. He acknowledges Kennedy's chin issues but thinks OSP lacks the power to exploit them. He warns against the minus 500 line but still picks Kennedy.
Lucrative James sees Kennedy Nzechukwu as a massive favorite and expects him to finish the fight. He notes that OSP has looked washed recently, with poor cardio and chin, and that Kennedy can knock him out on the feet, with elbows, or in the clinch. He dismisses OSP's chances, stating that the only way OSP wins is if Kennedy makes a huge mistake.
The host notes that Saint Preux is nearing 41 and fighting a young, hungry fighter in Nzechukwu, who should have speed and power advantages. He expects Nzechukwu to light up Saint Preux early and get a TKO, but mentions that the -500 or -700 odds are too much given the weight class and Saint Preux's experience. He still thinks the under 1.5 rounds should come through easily.
Paul also picks Kennedy, echoing that OSP is done. He notes Kennedy's physical advantages (size, speed, reach) and OSP's inability to take punches anymore. He calls it an 'apple pie situation' where fading OSP is tempting but warns about Kennedy's own flaws. He still expects Kennedy to win.
The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by TKO, citing OSP's age (40) and recent KO loss to Philipe Lins. He notes Nzechukwu is chinny but has youth and momentum. He dismisses OSP's win over Shogun as controversial and believes Nzechukwu will get the finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipe Lins | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipe Lins | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipe Lins | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 18 of 44 | 40% | 17 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipe Lins | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 18 of 44 | 40% | 17 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Lins because OSP is infuriatingly low-volume, often not letting his hands go and throwing one punch at a time. Lins has power, a BJJ black belt, and showed wrestling in his last fight with four takedowns. Angelo believes Lins will win by simply outworking OSP, who doesn't push the pace. He notes the line movement reflects public agreement.
Big Brady is not high on Lins but thinks OSP looks disinterested and has been in terrible fights recently. He notes Lins looked better at light heavyweight in his last fight, while OSP has been knocked out by Tanner Boser. He predicts Lins wins by first-round knockout, but warns against betting the -220 line.
Cody picks Lins but doesn't love the -200. He details OSP's decline: leg injury, weight-cutting issues, missing weight for the first time in his career, and poor performances. He says Lins is a better technical striker and should stand on the outside and out-volume OSP. He notes Lins has wrestling advantage and is younger with fewer fights. However, he says he needs to see weigh-ins because OSP has to make 205 and Lins has been out with injuries. He says he'll pick Lins but won't bet it.
Connor agrees, noting that Lins looked fast and powerful at light heavyweight, with a good boxing game based on straight punches and efficient combinations. He points out that OSP is incredibly passive and will give Lins space to build confidence. Connor also mentions that OSP's recent performances show a lack of confidence and a tendency to back up without offering a counter threat. He sees no reason to pick OSP.
Jacob trusts Lins more than OSP because OSP is comfortable being inactive. He thinks the odds at +200 are a bit disrespectful to OSP, as Lins isn't a dominant wrestler or powerful striker. Jacob expects a boring fight with Lins hanging on OSP's hips and winning a decision. He notes both have been knocked out by Tanner Boser, but Lins is the better overall fighter.
Lins has a grinding style with good forward pressure and clinch work, which should wear down OSP. OSP's cardio and aggression have declined, and he relies on a fading left hook. Lins can close distance, avoid the hook, and win a decision by controlling the cage and landing takedowns.
Paul picks Lins but won't bet it. He notes Lins leaned on wrestling against Prachnio, which could get him in trouble against OSP. He says OSP is not the same guy from 5-6 years ago; he's slow and has slowed down significantly. He says he doesn't see many advantages for OSP and this might be his last fight in the UFC. He says he'll pick Lins but needs to see weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Philipe Lins, but with hesitation. He notes Lins' losses outside the UFC were to Vadim Nemkov, and he had a good PFL career. He criticizes OSP for taking Shogun to a close decision and getting ragdolled by Andre Petroski. He thinks Lins is younger, more motivated, and hungry after many canceled fights, predicting a decision or late second-round TKO.
Zane sees Lins as a confident, aggressive fighter who looked great at light heavyweight, with good boxing and power. He notes that OSP is passive and often relies on a single moment of power to win, but that ability is diminishing with age. Zane believes Lins will be able to walk OSP down and bully him, as OSP tends to back himself into the cage and abandon his guard. He also mentions that Lins is not giving up size and power to OSP, and that OSP's confidence is low.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 54 of 99 | 54% | 54 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 62 of 112 | 55% | 62 of 112 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 54 of 99 | 54% | 18 of 53 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 54 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 62 of 112 | 55% | 18 of 57 | 36 of 43 | 8 of 12 | 62 of 112 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 20 of 38 | 52% | 4 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 11 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 20 of 34 | 58% | 4 of 15 | 13 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 21 of 33 | 63% | 8 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 20 of 39 | 51% | 4 of 19 | 13 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 22 of 39 | 56% | 10 of 23 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux despite his gut feeling for Shogun. He reasons that Saint Preux's athleticism and 66% takedown defense will make it tough for Shogun to take him down. He admits it goes against his childhood watching fights but goes with Saint Preux. He makes no bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by first-round finish, but he is hesitant. He believes OSP is the less washed fighter and that Shogun has looked poor recently, getting knocked out by Paul Craig and struggling with aging opponents. Stylistically, OSP has the advantage on the feet and can also take Shogun down. However, OSP is 39 and has lost two in a row by knockout, so confidence is low. Brady expects OSP to finish Shogun early, but he would not recommend betting on this fight due to the red flags.
Cody picks OSP, but emphasizes that weigh-ins are crucial. He notes OSP's recent weight misses and injuries, but believes OSP has been fighting better competition lately and giving a better account of himself. In contrast, Shogun is a shell of his former self, with poor performances in his last three fights. Cody thinks OSP's recent activity and level of competition give him the edge, despite the weight concerns.
Daniel Levi picks Shogun Rua as a slight underdog, acknowledging he is a fanboy but also seeing a path to victory. He thinks Shogun has the better process and technique, and may be more motivated after being knocked out quickly in their first fight. However, he is not confident because Shogun's durability is a major concern. He considers a small half-unit bet on Shogun moneyline but does not commit to a bet in the transcript.
The host picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by knockout, likely early. He references their first fight where OSP starched Shogun in 34 seconds. He notes Shogun's age and slowed striking, and OSP's desire to replicate the finish. He prefers betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' at similar odds to OSP moneyline, and likes OSP round 1 at +200. He expects OSP to land on Shogun's chin and put him out.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses OSP's weight issues and Shogun's decline, noting that OSP hasn't looked great and Shogun is a shell of himself. He considers it a dogger pass situation and cannot pull the trigger on Shogun. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Boser | 1 | 33 of 72 | 45% | 33 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tanner Boser | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tanner Boser | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Boser | 33 of 72 | 45% | 10 of 44 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 13 | 31 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 9 of 21 | 42% | 2 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tanner Boser | 25 of 53 | 47% | 4 of 29 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 12 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 8 of 18 | 44% | 2 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tanner Boser | 8 of 19 | 42% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux, hoping that Boser's forward pressure will bring out volume in OSP. He notes OSP has more ways to win and hits hard, but his issue is low output. Angelo has a moneyline bet on OSP at plus odds. He likes more/more on the strike line.
Big Brady picks Tanner Boser to win by decision, citing his superior striking output (4.21 sig strikes/min) and defense (63%), while OSP has low volume and negative strike differential. He notes OSP's reach advantage but thinks Boser's speed and youth will be key. He worries about judges after Boser's recent close losses but believes Boser should win if he out-lands OSP. He is not confident betting Boser due to judging.
Cody picks Tanner Boser but with low confidence. He notes Boser has lost his last two as a favorite, but those were questionable decisions. He argues Boser has speed and size advantages, and OSP is past his prime, missing weight recently, and looked lethargic. He thinks Boser can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. However, he warns against heavy exposure due to Boser's recent losses and OSP's veteran savvy.
Jacob says he has no idea who will win this fight but hopes OSP wins. He picks OSP with heart rather than logic. He would stay away from both guys in DraftKings.
Boser's leg kick is the main ingredient in his wins, and he should establish it against Saint Preux. OSP's cardio issues will surface after the first round, allowing Boser to take over with bigger strikes. Boser will shuck off desperation takedowns and outstrike OSP over 15 minutes. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Boser. OSP's submission threat is there but his top control and wrestling aren't good enough to keep Boser down.
Paul leans toward Tanner Boser, citing speed advantage and OSP's poor performance at heavyweight. He notes OSP missed weight and is 37, with his best days behind him. However, he is not confident because Boser didn't look great against Latifi and has lost two straight as a favorite. He thinks OSP's path is takedowns, but Boser's takedown defense should hold.
The MMA Guru picks Tanner Boser by first-round KO, citing OSP's hesitancy and declining chin. He notes Boser's anger from his loss to Ilir Latifi and believes he will come out aggressive. He criticizes OSP's grappling and aging, predicting Boser will land combination punches against the cage and finish him early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 36 of 72 | 50% | 37 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 68 of 128 | 53% | 68 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 41 of 77 | 53% | 41 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 36 of 72 | 50% | 7 of 36 | 14 of 17 | 15 of 19 | 35 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 68 of 128 | 53% | 39 of 92 | 23 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 62 of 120 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 21 of 41 | 51% | 2 of 17 | 8 of 10 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 27 of 51 | 52% | 7 of 25 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 15 of 31 | 48% | 5 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 41 of 77 | 53% | 32 of 67 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 35 of 69 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux as an underdog, citing Jamahal Hill's unproven level of competition. He notes Hill's takedown defense is questionable, as he was taken down multiple times by Darko Stosic. He believes OSP's veteran savvy and submission threat will be the difference, predicting OSP will take Hill down and submit him. He acknowledges OSP has been hurt in fights but only knocked out twice in 39 fights.
Daniel is high on Jamahal Hill, calling him one of the brightest light heavyweight prospects with top-five potential. He highlights Hill's exceptional output and volume, noting he can land over 100 strikes in 15 minutes and has a bantamweight-like pace. He praises Hill's get-up game, having gotten up from all six takedowns against Darko Stosic, and his varied striking including jabs, straight lefts, body shots, and kicks. He believes OSP's sparring partner Douglas Usher, a shorter southpaw, is not ideal preparation for Hill's length and reach. He predicts Hill will either knock out OSP or win a dominant decision via volume, similar to Dominick Reyes' win over OSP.
The host picks Jamahal Hill to win, likely by first or second round KO. He believes Hill's diverse striking and size advantage will be a nightmare matchup for OSP, who struggles against bigger, varied strikers. He notes OSP's age and suspect chin, and that Hill's chin-up style is a concern but OSP's counters may not be as effective. He likes Hill at -165 and thinks the line is getting better.
The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by TKO in the first or second round, noting that Hill's size and explosiveness will be key against OSP. He believes Hill's youth and fast improvement will allow him to get inside and finish, while OSP has not been KO'd recently but is vulnerable. He acknowledges OSP is a good underdog but sticks with Hill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 33 of 80 | 41% | 33 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 13 of 42 | 30% | 13 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 33 of 80 | 41% | 12 of 44 | 17 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 19 of 40 | 47% | 12 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 13 of 42 | 30% | 7 of 25 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 20 of 38 | 52% | 5 of 19 | 11 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 8 of 17 | 47% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking up to 205 pounds for the recently rescheduled co-main event, former light heavyweight title challenger and one-off heavyweight St. Preux (24-14, 12-9 UFC) comes to blows with the knockout-minded Menifield (9-1, 2-1 UFC). With a touch of gloves between the two, referee Jason Herzog checks in the contest and it’s on with the show! Menifield races forward with punches and shoots in for a low takedown, but “OSP” shrugs it off and gets Menifield to back off. Menifield lands a hard right hand, and “OSP” responds with a slapping low kick as he plods forward. St. Preux connects with a piercing jab, and Menifield rushes in at him to land some bombs but bounces off the side of his opponent. Menifield crashes in to pursue a body lock, and after stalling out, he backs away. “OSP” lets him have it with a thudding body kick, and he backs away when Menifield tries to counter him. St. Preux winds up with a right hand that nearly makes him topple over, and Menifield slams a right hand into his man’s guard. St. Preux lands a long left hand and backs Menifield away, but “Atomic” comes back at him hard. “OSP” kicks to the body a few more times to halt an advancing Menifield, and he scoots back to let a leg kick ricochet off his shin. A long jab finds its home for St. Preux, and he gets off another body kick as Menifield struggles to find his range. Menifield connects with a right hand that buckles St. Preux’s knees, but he keeps his composure and throws back in the form of some kicks. Menifield lands another left hand, and blocks a sweeping body kick. St. Preux swats him in the face but takes a few power punches as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 St. Preux
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 St. Preux
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 St. Preux
Round 2
Menifield opens the round with a big right hand, and “OSP” backs away before getting a kick up. St. Preux nearly falls over with a looping right hand, and Menifield does not take advantage of it but avoids the zooming strike. Menifield lands a low kick and may have hurt his foot as he stumbles backwards, and “OSP” stands before him and slowly walks him down. St. Preux chips away at him with kicks low and high, and Menifield is once more finding himself backing himself away and circling on the cage wall. St. Preux stings him with two more kicks to the body, and he does not stop throwing them. “OSP” ducks away from a punch and lands a kick that may have glanced off the cup, but the action does not pause as Herzog checks on the fighters. “OSP” scores with a right hand, and he has slowed to landing single power strikes while Menifield swings and misses. Menifield loads up with all he has with a booming right hand, and “OSP” is stumbled and possibly hurt as he falls into the fence.
Menifield charges at him after St. Preux gets his bearings, and a short check left hook out of nowhere puts Menifield’s lights out. Menifield crumbles face-first to the ground, and “OSP” stands still to admire his work, knowing there is nothing more he needs to do in the cage tonight. Wakanda Forever.
The Official Result
Ovince St. Preux def. Alonzo Menifield R2 4:07 via KO (Punch)
Big Brady is confident in Menifield, citing his takedown defense (85%) and power. He believes Menifield has worked on his cardio after gassing against Devin Clark and looks in great shape. He thinks OSP is hittable, low volume, and has a questionable chin. He predicts a first-round knockout but says Menifield is live even if it goes past the first round.
Daniel Levi sticks with Ovince Saint Preux despite concerns about a second weight cut in two weeks and a COVID scare. He believes OSP is a much better fighter than Devin Clark, who Menifield lost to, and that OSP's wrestling for MMA is superior. However, he is not confident and expects a close fight that could go three rounds, noting Menifield's power and OSP's tendency to slow down.
The host picks OSP as a +115 underdog, expecting him to survive the first round and then take over. He notes OSP's experience, durability, and submission threat, while Menifield has cardio issues and is one-dimensional. He predicts a second or third round stoppage via ground and pound or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Ovince Saint Preux, arguing that OSP has shown durability and avoids getting KO'd despite a perceived weak chin. He believes Menifield's power is overrated and that OSP will take the fight to the ground and secure a submission (von Flue choke) in the first or second round. He references OSP's recent wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk and Tyson Pedro.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rothwell | 0 | 56 of 110 | 50% | 86 of 142 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 5:49 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 42 of 82 | 51% | 46 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rothwell | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 18 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ben Rothwell | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Ben Rothwell | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 44 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rothwell | 56 of 110 | 50% | 37 of 89 | 15 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 40 of 79 | 14 of 29 | 2 of 2 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 42 of 82 | 51% | 27 of 62 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 33 of 70 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rothwell | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 9 of 19 | 47% | 2 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ben Rothwell | 19 of 41 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 30 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 13 of 27 | 48% | 6 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ben Rothwell | 30 of 55 | 54% | 21 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 37 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 20 of 36 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans with Ben Rothwell as an underdog, believing Rothwell's power and chin give him a good chance to knock out Ovince Saint Preux. He thinks OSP will struggle to take Rothwell down and that the fight will stay on the feet, where Rothwell has the advantage. He acknowledges OSP could win a decision if Rothwell fights poorly, but sees a knockout as more likely and considers betting on Rothwell at plus odds.
Daniel Levi picks OSP, citing his athleticism and speed advantage over Rothwell, who has looked slow since his suspension. He notes OSP's suspect chin and cardio at heavyweight, and says he won't bet him at -140 due to those concerns, but still picks him for the win.
The MMA Guru picks Ben Rothwell, noting that OSP is moving up to heavyweight and his chin won't magically improve. He highlights Rothwell's durability, having taken shots from Junior dos Santos and Blagojevich, and believes Rothwell will smother OSP and finish him in the second round. He also points out that OSP is 37 and has been rocked in recent fights.
Marcos Rogério de Lima - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 | 33 of 46 | 71% | 63 of 78 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 27 of 36 | 75% | 55 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 33 of 46 | 71% | 19 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 13 | 22 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Junior Tafa | 11 of 27 | 40% | 9 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 27 of 36 | 75% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 18 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 10 |
| Junior Tafa | 6 of 18 | 33% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 6 of 10 | 60% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Junior Tafa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: NA
Round 1
In something never before seen in the Octagon, brother will replace brother in a match. On weigh-in day, Justin Tafa was expected to be facing Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1, 10-7 UFC). Due to an unexpected injury and some speedy negotiations, the Brazilian will now collide with Junior Tafa (5-1, 1-1 UFC) instead. Life finds a way. Referee Frank Trigg is ready for this heavyweight slobberknocker to get underway, and Tafa stretches his arm out to get a glove touch before getting after it. Rogerio de Lima scores first with a low kick as he backs Tafa to the wall, and when Tafa reaches out with a jab, Rogerio de Lima connects with a second and then a third. Tafa switches stances and lands the single jab, and he hops away from a sweeping leg kick. The kicks are already having an effect on his opponent, and Rogerio de Lima recognizes that. Rogerio de Lima backs off, connects with a few punches and assaults the lead wheel with another kick, and Tafa’s leg nearly gives out beneath him. Tafa hops around, and instead of getting away, Rogerio de Lima pushes after him with a clinch. Tafa welcomes this so he can recover, and when they eventually break, Tafa plods forward to throw haymakers with anything he has left. Rogerio de Lima belts him with another pair of leg kicks, and Tafa backs up to the wall and waves him on. The Brazilian swarms him with punches and body shots, and he shoots in for a double that he completes with relative ease. Rogerio de Lima lands on top in half guard, maintaining heavy top pressure and bopping Tafa with his left hand when he finds an opening. Rogerio de Lima smothers his man until Tafa sits up. Rogerio de Lima considers a choke from an unusual position, and Tafa breaks out, relatively speaking, so he can swing a heavy hand at his opponent. Rogerio de Lima does not like this, so he lowers his chest down to squeeze on Tafa. The grind carries out until the horn bleats.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rogerio de Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rogerio de Lima
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rogerio de Lima
Round 2
Tafa struggles to get back to his feet at the end of the last round, but after a minute to recover, he appears fresh enough to continue. Tafa wades forward, and Rogerio de Lima intercepts him with a calf kick and pushes him down with his fists. Tafa switches to southpaw to protect his wrecked leg, and he lunges forward with an inaccurate punch that allows Rogerio de Lima the close proximity to grab him and shove him to the fencing. Tafa turns around and lands a body shot before pushing away, and he lets his hands go with a mighty right hand.
Rogerio de Lima delivers a harsh calf kick that collapses Tafa’s lead leg, and he looks to Trigg to wave the fight off. Trigg watches on without jumping in, so Rogerio de Lima decides to jump on top and pound away with hammerfists until Trigg calls it.
Tafa fought valiantly, but his replacement effort proved unsuccessful.
The Official Result
Marcos Rogerio de Lima def. Junior Tafa R2 1:14 via TKO (Leg Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Junior Tafa as an underdog, noting his power and durability. He thinks Marcos will struggle to take Tafa down due to Tafa's size and hips. He plans to bet Tafa inside the distance decision no action, as Tafa has finishing upside and Marcos is likely to win a decision if he avoids the knockout.
Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round submission. He notes de Lima has more ways to win with his BJJ black belt and wrestling, and expects him to get the fight to the mat where Tafa is untested. He acknowledges Tafa has power and could land a knockout, but leans de Lima due to his grappling advantage. He says he can't have much confidence in either fighter.
Cody picks Tafa as a dog, expressing strong dislike for de Lima. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to gas after one round, as seen in the Stefan Struve fight. He believes Tafa's power will eventually catch de Lima, especially if de Lima tires. He sees Tafa as a live underdog at plus money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Junior Tafa, despite acknowledging de Lima's experience and grappling advantage. He is concerned about de Lima's recent knockout loss to Derrick Lewis, where he suffered severe dental damage, and questions his recovery. He believes Tafa's power gives him a chance, especially if de Lima is compromised. He notes Tafa's improvements and the fact that de Lima has been finished before.
Daniel picks Junior Tafa, calling him a 'bad man' who swangs and bangs. He likes Tafa's power and youth compared to de Lima. He hopes Tafa can keep the fight on the feet and thinks he is worth a dabble as a dog.
Jeff picks Junior Tafa as a dog. He is less worried about Tafa keeping the fight standing and more convinced that de Lima won't shoot takedowns quickly enough. He compares de Lima to fighters like Devin Clark who don't wrestle when they should. He warns that Tafa has one of the worst resumes of any UFC heavyweight, so he advises against betting heavily. He thinks Tafa's boxing will hold up.
De Lima has solid power, good leg kicks, and a grapple-heavy style to neutralize Tafa's punching power. He has matured enough to take the fight to the ground and keep Tafa from getting off. Expects a decision win.
Paul picks de Lima, citing his size and takedown ability. He notes that de Lima has a grappling advantage and can take Tafa down. He expects de Lima to use leg kicks and takedowns to win, though he admits he has no intention of betting this fight early.
The MMA Guru leans toward Junior Tafa, citing his momentum and improvements, while noting Marcos Rogério de Lima is coming off a KO loss. He calls it a coin flip and admits he doesn't mind de Lima as an underdog. He mentions Tafa's KO power and de Lima's stagnation, but acknowledges Tafa's losses to Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rogerio de Lima (-215), Lewis (+185)
Round 1
One day ago, this heavyweight slobberknocker that will almost certainly end in either a violent knockout or some serious huffing and puffing – possibly both – is now sitting pretty as the “Featured Fight of the Night” due to the cancelation of the Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira contest. Hunting for his first win since 2021, Lewis (26-11, 1 NC; 17-9 UFC) still holds the UFC’s all-time knockout record, although Matt Brown tied it with him. He draws fellow knockout artist Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1, 10-6 UFC), and the structural integrity of the cage will be tested when these big men get after it. They lumber towards one another, not offering a glove touch, and referee Dan Miragliotta is ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Lewis shockingly leaps in the air, blasting Rogerio de Lima in the chops with a flying knee. Rogerio de Lima collapses to the ground, and Lewis jumps on top and starts hammering him with vicious ground-and-pound. Rogerio de Lima considers hunting for leglock while trying to survive, but he is in a bad, bad way. Lewis continues slugging him on the face and side of the head, and Rogerio de Lima bails on any possible sub setup and just looks to keep it together. Rogerio de Lima turns to his knees, and the writing may be on the wall here. “The Black Beast” continues swarming Rogerio de Lima with everything he has, and Miragliotta has no choice but to call the fight. Lewis unmounts his defeated opponent, takes his shorts off and starts gleefully running around the cage. He proceeds, in just his underpants, to triumphantly motion the crotch chop several times. Lewis jumps on the cage, happy as can be, celebrating in vintage Derrick Lewis fashion. The UFC’s knockout record now singularly sits in the lap of Lewis, who tells commentator Joe Rogan that his contract is now up and that he hopes to be re-signed by the promotion. If not, as he says, “it is what it is.” The rest of the top-notch post-fight remarks cannot be done justice by a simple play-by-play writeup, and must be heard.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Marcos Rogerio de Lima R1 0:33 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is very confident in Marcos Rogério de Lima, stating he is better everywhere except power. He notes that Derrick Lewis is always dangerous with his knockout power, but believes Lima's wrestling, BJJ, and leg kicks will be too much. He placed a 1-unit bet at -129 and notes the line has already moved to -190.
Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round TKO via leg kicks. He argues de Lima has more paths to victory: knockout to the head, leg kick TKO, or submission. He questions Derrick Lewis's durability, cardio, and mentality, noting Lewis has been finished early in recent fights. He expects de Lima's leg kicks to shut down Lewis quickly.
Cody picks Lewis by KO, noting Lewis's power and ability to come from behind. He acknowledges Lewis's losing streak but points out the level of competition (Curtis Blaydes, Serghei Spivac, etc.) is much higher than de Lima's wins. He believes de Lima's cardio and chin are suspect, especially at altitude, and Lewis's heart and power will prevail. He took a small bet on Lewis by KO at +270.
James believes de Lima should be a sizable favorite, as Lewis is past his prime and has lost four of his last five. He notes de Lima's leg kicks are a key weapon and that Lewis has poor cardio and doesn't like leg kicks. He expects de Lima to land leg kicks early and possibly finish Lewis, though he acknowledges de Lima also gasses.
De Lima is on a good run and has power and leg kicks to slow Lewis down. He can also take Lewis down and smash him from top position. Lewis is on a losing streak and seems to have slowed down at 38. De Lima should be aggressive early to avoid Lewis's late power. I'm leaning on de Lima under 2.5 rounds.
Paul also picks Lewis, emphasizing the talent gap: de Lima's wins are over lower-tier heavyweights while Lewis has fought top contenders. He notes de Lima's history of quitting under adversity (e.g., tapping to a forearm choke against Romanov). He believes Lewis's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power will be decisive, especially at altitude where de Lima's cardio will falter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 59 of 76 | 77% | 76 of 95 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 5:01 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 82 of 150 | 54% | 88 of 156 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 27 of 34 | 79% | 33 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 26 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 43 of 74 | 58% | 43 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 59 of 76 | 77% | 20 of 31 | 11 of 15 | 28 of 30 | 56 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 82 of 150 | 54% | 54 of 116 | 18 of 23 | 10 of 11 | 79 of 146 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 27 of 34 | 79% | 7 of 11 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 16 | 26 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 20 of 39 | 51% | 7 of 24 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 15 of 19 | 78% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 19 of 37 | 51% | 13 of 30 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 17 of 23 | 73% | 7 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 43 of 74 | 58% | 34 of 62 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 43 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Lima (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+155)
Round 1
De Lima enters this heavyweight fight having won three of his last four UFC appearances. He’ll look to halt the momentum of Cortes-Acosta, whose undefeated record includes a pair of UFC triumphs. Herb Dean gets his first assignment of the card as the third man in the Octagon. De Lima stalks his foe and throws a front kick followed by a pair of calf kicks. A Cortes-Acosta body kick is countered by a de Lima right. A hard leg kick lands for de Lima and Acosta nods in acknowledgement. Another leg kick for de Lima and Acosta with a straight to the body. De Lima is heavily targeting the leg, and Acosta’s calf is swelling up early. De Lima punches his way into the clinch and he drags Acosta to the mat. Acosta gives up his back in an attempt to stand. Dean warns Acosta to keeps his fingers ot of de Lima’s glove. Acosta is able to stand and he throws a body kick. De LIma with another low kick and Acosta jabs the body. A solid right lands for Acosta, who shoots for a takedown. He doesn’t get it but he does shove de Lima into the fence. Acosta knees the thighs in close quarters. De Lima reverses position and the heavyweights separate. A counter left connects for de Lima, who then goes back to attacking the legs. Several more leg kicks land for de Lima, but Acosta answers with a spinning back kick. De Lima shoves Acosta into the fence, and they’ll end the round in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Round 2
Acosta opens with an inside leg kick and a jab. De Lima answers with a leg kick. Acosta is still moving well despite absorbing those leg kicks. De Lima makes Acosta stumble with a trio of leg kicks. Both heavyweights land body kicks. Acosta with a right hand, and Acosta answers with an uppercut. De Lima lands a right to the body. De Lima shoots for a takedown against the fence, lifts Acosta and plants him on his back. De Lima sets up hin his foe’s half guard. The Brazilian passes to mount and Acosta threatens with a kimura. Acosta gives up his back and scrambles to his feet. De Lima keeps his hands locked and then lands a few left hands before taking his man down near the fence. The Brazilian is back to working from half guard. Acosta gives up his back and scrambles to his feet. They swing heavy punches for a few moments. Acosta eats a leg kick and then makes de Lima stumble backward with a right hand. De Lima shoots for a takedown against the fence with about 30 seconds left. De Lima drops low, but Acosta defends and leans forward. They separate just before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Round 3
Acosta lands a clubbing right hand. Acosta lands a jab and de Lima responds with a low kick. It’s a measured beginning to the final round for both men. Another jab for Acosta and another leg kick for de Lima. Acosta lands a spinning back kick to the midsection. Another nice jab lands for Acosta. De Lima steps in with a left hook, but Acosta answers with a combination. A hard low kick hurts Acosta. Acosta jabs the body, then the head. A right hand lands for Acosta, and de Lima is just standing in front of his foe and eating punches. Another jab lands for Acosta. A three-punch combination lands for Acosta, and de Lima fires off another low kick. More jabs for Acosta, as de Lima’s output has slowed significantly. De Lima’s face is wearing the damage from Acosta’s jab. De Lima shoots for a takedown against the fence. He locks his hands but Acosta nonetheless defends the attempt. Acosta frees himself and touches de Lima with straight punches. De Lima makes his foe buckle briefly with a low kick. but it’s Acosta landing in volume as the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 de Lima)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 de Lima)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 de Lima)
The Official Result
Marcos Rogerio de Lima def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, highlighting de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, volume, and a good gas tank, and can survive the initial onslaught to take over later. He suggests waiting for live betting to get an even better price on Acosta.
Connor is unimpressed with Cortes Acosta's limited game and showboating. He thinks de Lima's wrestling and better technique will be decisive. He notes de Lima's tendency to gas but believes Cortes Acosta lacks the technical game to capitalize. He sees de Lima as the clear favorite.
Paul picks Acosta, agreeing with Cody that de Lima is not a good fighter and has terrible cardio. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, head movement, and a good chin, and can outwork de Lima in later rounds. He also mentions that de Lima is a light heavyweight who moved up and has a history of gassing.
Zane agrees, citing Cortes Acosta's lack of technical foundation and de Lima's superior wrestling and speed. He notes de Lima's history of losing to more technical fighters after gassing, but Cortes Acosta is not that type. He sees de Lima as the rightful favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 1 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 25 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 1 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 25 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out by power punchers and that de Lima has heavy hands, as seen in his knockout of Ben Rothwell. He mentions that Arlovski's recent wins have come against non-power punchers, and that de Lima's power and early finishing ability will be too much for the 43-year-old Arlovski.
Cody picks Andrei Arlovski as a dog, citing his four-fight winning streak and ability to win close decisions. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out only by elite power punchers and that Marcos Rogério de Lima is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Cody expects Arlovski to survive the first round and take over in rounds two and three, winning a decision. He is betting Arlovski.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking de Lima based on his speed and power advantage. He notes that Arlovski has been beating low-technique, slow heavyweights, but de Lima is a significant step up in athleticism. Connor also points out that de Lima can wrestle if needed, and Arlovski's lack of finishing ability means he likely can't come back if he loses the first round.
Daniel Levi picks de Lima, citing youth, power, and grappling advantage. He admits his poor track record picking Arlovski fights. He notes Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks de Lima's power and youth will be too much. He has no interest in laying -225.
Jacob picks de Lima but warns against betting heavyweight fights due to inconsistency. He notes Arlovski's recent win streak but says he was getting hit by Jake Collier, and de Lima has more power. He advises not to put money on either side.
Arlovski is on a 6-1 run over his last seven fights and has shown durability and veteran savvy. De Lima is first-round-or-bust and tends to fade in later rounds. Arlovski should survive the initial onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds, winning a decision. The plus 200 price is a no-brainer for an underdog bet.
Paul also picks Arlovski, calling him dog number two on the card. He highlights Arlovski's six wins in his last seven fights and his ability to grind out decisions. Paul criticizes de Lima's poor cardio, submission losses, and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Arlovski's stick-and-move style will tire de Lima and lead to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Marcos Rogério de Lima over Andrei Arlovski, noting that Arlovski's recent fights have been close and he still gets caught on the chin. He highlights de Lima's hands, reach, and grappling threat, which Arlovski hasn't faced recently. He predicts de Lima will mix in takedowns, push Arlovski against the cage, and eventually clip him for a KO win.
Zane picks de Lima confidently, citing his significant speed and power advantage over Arlovski's recent opponents. He notes that de Lima is a fast, powerful striker who can put Arlovski away early, similar to how Ben Rothwell or Tom Aspinall did. Zane also mentions de Lima's improved conditioning and potential wrestling as an out if needed, while Arlovski is slow and not a finisher anymore.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 62 of 128 | 48% | 75 of 142 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:52 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 68 of 133 | 51% | 81 of 147 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 33 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 35 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 3 | Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 21 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blagoy Ivanov | 62 of 128 | 48% | 53 of 118 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 54 of 118 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 68 of 133 | 51% | 46 of 107 | 18 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 58 of 115 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blagoy Ivanov | 12 of 29 | 41% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 25 of 45 | 55% | 10 of 27 | 12 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 23 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Blagoy Ivanov | 30 of 54 | 55% | 24 of 48 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 44 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Blagoy Ivanov | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 17 of 32 | 53% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov, citing his iron chin and combat sambo background. He believes Ivanov's chin will frustrate de Lima and that if Ivanov gets a takedown, he will have a clear advantage on top. He notes that six of de Lima's seven losses are by submission, providing a clear path.
Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by second-round submission. He notes that de Lima is dangerous early with power and leg kicks, but he fades and has poor takedown defense (47%) and submission defense. Ivanov is extremely durable, having eaten shots from heavy hitters and survived a stabbing. Brady thinks de Lima will win the first round but Ivanov will take over in the second, taking de Lima down and submitting him. He compares it to the Struve fight where Struve submitted de Lima after nearly being finished.
Cody picks Blagoy Ivanov, emphasizing his incredible durability (survived stabbing, fought Fedor, Derrick Lewis). He notes that de Lima has poor cardio, weak submission defense, and relies on early power. Cody believes Ivanov can take de Lima's best shots and then take over as de Lima fades. He sees Ivanov's takedown defense and chin as decisive factors.
Daniel Levi picks Blagoy Ivanov by decision, citing his durability and never being finished. He notes de Lima is powerful early but fades and has low volume. He worries about Ivanov's own low output but thinks he can grind out a win. He does not bet the fight.
The host picks Blagoy Ivanov, citing his durability and ability to survive de Lima's early power. He notes Ivanov's chin held up against heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis. He expects Ivanov to weather the first round, then wear on de Lima and finish him later. He likes the round 3 prop at +1000 and decision prop at +185. He plans to bet 1.4-1.5 units on Ivanov moneyline, acknowledging the layoff risk but believing Ivanov is rightly favored and could be even shorter.
Paul picks Blagoy Ivanov, surprised the line is so close. He notes that Ivanov is durable and has never been finished, while de Lima gasses and has poor takedown defense. Paul believes Ivanov's takedown defense and chin will be key, and that de Lima's only path is an early knockout. He expects Ivanov to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Blagoy Ivanov, trusting his granite chin and consistency against a higher level of competition. He notes Ivanov went five rounds with JDS and arguably beat Derrick Lewis. He criticizes de Lima's inconsistency and believes Ivanov will grind out a close 29-28 decision by pressuring and winning stand-up exchanges. He dismisses the height difference as not significant.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ben Rothwell | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ben Rothwell | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ben Rothwell | 14 of 24 | 58% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ben Rothwell | 14 of 24 | 58% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Ben Rothwell, reasoning that he only needs one takedown to finish, while de Lima needs 15 minutes of a clean game plan. He acknowledges de Lima's path to victory through stick-and-move but thinks Rothwell's size and durability are key.
Big Brady is confident in Ben Rothwell, citing de Lima's atrocious cardio and tendency to fade after one round. He notes Rothwell has a legendary chin (not knocked out since 2009) and superior takedown defense. Brady expects Rothwell to take over as the fight progresses and predicts a second-round submission, as de Lima has been submitted five times.
Cody emphasizes Rothwell's durability (not finished since 2009) and de Lima's tendency to fade. He points out de Lima's poor takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He expects Rothwell to pressure, take de Lima down, and eventually submit him. He also notes Rothwell's 70% takedown defense and that de Lima gasses quickly.
Daniel Levi picks Ben Rothwell by submission, predicting that de Lima will be faster and more athletic early but will eventually make a mistake and tap to a choke. He references Rothwell's history of opportunistic finishes, including the comeback against Brandon Vera and the gogoplata against Josh Barnett. Levi notes de Lima's tendency to quit when put in a choke, making Rothwell's submission threat a key factor.
Jacob picks Ben Rothwell, believing he will plod forward, make it dirty, and grind out a win. He notes that Rothwell has a granite chin and hasn't been TKO'd since 2009. Jacob thinks de Lima has no way to win except maybe a weird decision.
Paul notes that de Lima is a quitter when things go south and has a pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rothwell is durable, has better submission skills, and will wear de Lima down. He predicts Rothwell wins by submission in round 2, and mentions a prop at 13-1.
The Guru picks Ben Rothwell by unanimous decision (29-28). He expects a close first round with de Lima landing big shots, but Rothwell's pressure and physicality will take over in later rounds. Rothwell will break de Lima down with clinch work and strikes, winning the last two rounds clearly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 60 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurice Greene | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 166 of 228 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 14:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurice Greene | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 58 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 2 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurice Greene | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 45 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 | |
| 3 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurice Greene | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 63 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurice Greene | 14 of 26 | 53% | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurice Greene | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurice Greene | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | |
| 3 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurice Greene | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady likes de Lima's power and leg kicks, and thinks Greene's poor striking defense (45%) and chin issues will be exploited. He notes Greene has zero takedowns in the UFC, so he won't exploit de Lima's weak takedown defense. Brady predicts de Lima will win by first-round knockout, as de Lima is dangerous early but fades after the first round. He says the under and de Lima in round 1 are good looks, but he wouldn't lay -190 on the moneyline.
Daniel Levi picks Maurice Greene as a dog, citing de Lima's tendency to get submitted or panic on the ground. He notes Greene's length, volume, and opportunistic submission ability. He acknowledges de Lima's power and early-round threat but thinks Greene can survive and find a finish, possibly via submission. He calls de Lima a 'stunt machine' and expects a volatile fight.
The host picks de Lima to win by TKO, expecting his power to be too much for Greene. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and jiu-jitsu but believes his power will get the job done early. He suggests live betting Greene if he survives the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Maurice Greene over Marcos Rogério de Lima, expressing surprise that Greene is a nearly 2-to-1 underdog. He believes Greene's range management with oblique kicks and jabs will neutralize de Lima's counter-punching style. He predicts a unanimous decision win, possibly 30-27, and notes de Lima's only chance is a KO, which he doesn't see happening.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 10 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 10 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 6 of 7 | 85% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 18 of 29 | 62% | 7 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 12 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 6 of 7 | 85% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 18 of 29 | 62% | 7 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 12 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Romanov's undefeated record, his ability to slam opponents, and de Lima's poor takedown defense (36%). He predicts a first-round submission, noting Romanov has finished 67% of his wins by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win via first-round submission. He notes Romanov's 100% takedown rate in his UFC debut and his ability to hold top control and attack with submissions. He believes Romanov will take de Lima down, apply a schoolyard headlock, and finish the fight, as de Lima has been submitted four times in the UFC and tends to quit when pressured.
The host is extremely confident in Romanov, calling him as close to a lock as possible. He expects a first-round finish via ground and pound or submission, noting Romanov's relentless pressure, takedowns, and finishing ability. He believes de Lima is completely outmatched and that the line should be -500. He plans to wait for the inside the distance prop.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via arm triangle choke. He believes Romanov is too fast and powerful for Marcos Rogério de Lima, and will soften him up with kicks before taking him down and securing the choke. He notes de Lima's history of being submitted.
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